December 12, 2025 • 55 mins
On paper, Field Marshal Asim Munir is the most powerful man in Pakistan. He has the Army, the intelligence agencies, and a constitutional amendment that effectively grants him unlimited power. So why is he seemingly terrified of a 73-year-old man locked in a 6x8 cell in Adiala Jail?
In this episode of In Our Defence, host Dev Goswami and defence expert Sandeep Unnithan peel back the layers of Islamabad's power struggle.
Is the conflict actually a deep-rooted ethnic clash between the Punjabi-dominated Army and Imran Khan's Pashtun base?
The Adiala Curse: Why does every Pakistani Prime Minister eventually fall out with the Army?
The God Complex: What ingredients create a Pakistani General who thinks he is the saviour of Pakistan?
The Endgame: Does Munir keep Khan locked up forever or will a 'Black Swan' event completely upend Pakistani politics?
Produced by Areeb Raza
Sound mixed by Rohan Bharti
In this episode of In Our Defence, host Dev Goswami and defence expert Sandeep Unnithan peel back the layers of Islamabad's power struggle.
Is the conflict actually a deep-rooted ethnic clash between the Punjabi-dominated Army and Imran Khan's Pashtun base?
The Adiala Curse: Why does every Pakistani Prime Minister eventually fall out with the Army?
The God Complex: What ingredients create a Pakistani General who thinks he is the saviour of Pakistan?
The Endgame: Does Munir keep Khan locked up forever or will a 'Black Swan' event completely upend Pakistani politics?
Produced by Areeb Raza
Sound mixed by Rohan Bharti
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is India Today Podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Welcome to Season three of Another Defense, the podcast that
takes you inside the world of conflict. I'm your host,
Deve Goswami and every week I sit down with experts
and retired officers from the Army, Navy and Air Force
to decode all things to do with India security and
explore what it truly means to serve. Get ready for
(00:27):
stories of strategy, sacrifice and strength.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
This is in Our Defense. Welcome to Our Defense.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Raval Pindi has him buzzing over the last few days
in Pakistan. There are staff fears in the country over
the health of him Ran Khan, who's not been seen
in public. I mean he's a prisoner there, so he's
not really supposed to be seen in public. But there
are demands from his family, his sisters, especially that they
be allowed to meet him, that he make a physical
appearance once because there is a lot of worry about
(00:58):
the state of his physical health. There were even some
wide rumors circulated last week that he may have been
killed inside the jail, but those rumors turned out he
mostly false news because the sisters didn't manage to have
one visit with him in prison.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
The sisters alleged that.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
The former Pakistan PM is being kept under isolation and
all this is happening as Field Marshal Asseimunir strengthens his
hold on the country. He right now is the most
powerful military leader of Pakistan in several years, and I
think in his mind he's now on the path to
(01:36):
becoming Pakistan's most powerful military leader ever, surpassing all previous
field marshals and generals who also had being dictators.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
So why is Asimuni worried of Imran Khan?
Speaker 3 (01:51):
Ilb that? So?
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Why is Aseimuni scared of Imrankan? At least that's the
impression you get, especially if you listen to a press
conference that was held earlier this week by the Director
Journal of the Publicity Being of the Pakistani military.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
You're gonna get to that.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Why is muny scared of Imran Khan? What's really going
on in Pakistan? To decode this and more, I have
with me as always, are good to be back. Yeah,
before we begin the chats and the I don't know
if you've come across this piece of breaking news broken
by our very own Tao from the Tenthal podcast hosted
(02:29):
on our sister channel asked the radio Field Marshal Asi
Muni has promoted Lieutenant General M. Sharif Sory to the
post of Wing Commander of Pakistan, referring to a video
that's gone viral this morning on social media where he
is the Director General of the Military Ving of the
(02:51):
Military Puplicving and while answering to a question posed by
a female journalist, he sort of wind at her the
video could, by the way, be a doctor. We don't
know that, but it has gone viral. The words the
lip sing seems to match. But yeah, this is happening
in Pakistan.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
As you speak, Stranger things have happened, and stranger things
have happened in Pakistan, and strange things may happen, especially.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
With respect to the topic that we're about to discuss.
Speaker 3 (03:18):
You know.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Before we start though, something you mentioned just before we
began recording, something to do with what you saw when
you were at some military site in Delhi a couple
of days ago. Is a weird connection you found between
Field Marshal Arsimunir and Field Marshal Sam Maniche.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
Both commissioned in the same regiment, the Frontier US and
the British Engine and the British, of course, and the
field Marshal, our field marshal, a genuine field marshal, was
appointed by the Government of India, was commission into the
Frontier Force and they called Piffers. It was p i
(03:59):
F because were called pif his Punjab irregular forces something
about their origin. So his dog incidentally was called Piffer
Manikshaw's dog in the famous pictures. So they were both
commissioned into that regiment. Of course, the Field Marshal Manic Shaw,
when he was a young officer, I think he was
a major or a left in colonel. He had to
(04:19):
opt for India, of course, because the Frontier Force went
to Pakistan and he chose the Gorka ragement. And that's
how you continue to be a Gorkha officer right until
the time that he was, you know, a field marshal,
and of course until his death in two thousand and eight.
But this is an interesting rate of trivia and actually
tells you the two different trajectories, the two armans and
(04:41):
the two countries, and indeed the two individuals that one
was made a field marshal. Field Marshal Manic Shaw was
made Field Marshal by the government in nineteen seventy three
after a spectacular victory in the Bangladesh War, where you
created a new nation in just about nine month and
a two week military campaign. And on the other hand,
(05:04):
you have you know, in Pakistan Field Marshal Arsimoni who
annoints himself Field Marshal after suffering one of the most
devastating military you know attacks since nineteen seventy one, and
in the military has never suffered this kind of single
day loss since nineteen seventy one. So essentially a you know,
(05:24):
a metaphor about the trajectories of these two nations and
of course the two armies and individuals.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Yeah, you know, since you talked about nineteen seventy one
with respect to Sam Janik show and Aasimuni, and we've
discussed the obsession of Pakistani army in previously Up with India. Yeah,
it also reminded me of something that Abishek Pala on
season one had spoken about that a lot of Pakistan's
current officer courps. Of course, they have that angst of
(05:54):
seventy one, So apart from the whole theory on which
Pakistan has founded, Apart from that, the seventy one loss
rankles them till this date. So a lot of their
outlook towards India, a lot of their how they how
they plan plan sort of operations against India sort of
also comes back comes from there.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
That that that loss, that.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
Still absolutely it rankles, you know it rankles because you know,
not only did you create Bangladesh, but there was that
very public humiliation of that surrender. You know, you had
the entire garrison surrendering en mass and those images and
they will go on for as long as Pakistan is around.
You know, officers lowering their you know, taking off their ranks,
(06:36):
epults lowering their weapons and all that. That's the worst
thing that an army can see, you know, and that
happened to them in seventy one. It need not have happened.
They could have averted it, but they chose not to.
They chose bluster over this, and they believed in their
own invincibility. And what you have is encapsulated in that
stunning photograph of leftan journal ak and Yas signing that
(07:00):
instrument of surrender in front of left in General Aurora
and of course all the Indian military brass literally surrounding him.
He's the only Pakistani in the frame. But that's a
metaphor and that that's one of the reasons why that
defeat still rankles. It was an abject surrender. And if
(07:21):
you look at if you talk to you know, military strategicians,
they would tell you that it was possible for Niyazi
to actually fight for a few more weeks. He could
have held off, but I think he got browbeaten and
full marks of the Indian Army and General Jacob and
genl Aora and the others to kind of broadbeat him
(07:42):
into convincing him that he had no option other than surrender.
And so that that's one reason why the Pakistan military
has still not reconciled to this and will never reconcile,
because A there is seventy one and b there is
that adversary who they regard as an existential threat to Pakistan.
And of course the third aspect is and which is
(08:04):
actually the real fulcrum, is that their entire relevance is
based on anti India hatred. And what Irankan is going
through now and this is the worst worst period of
his trial by fire, is that he's being accused of
working for the enemy country India. They haven't named us,
(08:26):
but he says that he's actually an agent of India
and he's working against the Pakistan Army and our great
Field Marshal and therefore he deserves to be punished and
you know, sentenced to death even you know, these are
kind of calls that are being made by those people
who you know, really fear him. Right.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
So a recapped for our listeners and viewers as we
dive in. Imran Khan.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Needs no introduction, the cricketer who won the ninety sixty
two nineteen ninety two World Cup, I'm sorry, extremely proper
in the country.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
He became PM a few years ago.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
It was widely believed that he was propped up by
the Pakistan Army, as almost any PM who wins the
election in Pakistan usually is UH, and the army did
sort of, you know, m hm ensure that ground when
the when when the elections were taking place for him
to come to power.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
UH. But then he had a falling out like all
pms always do.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
UH.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
There was also a controversy that sort of kind of
personally involves Muni, which I think is going to be
a very important point on this episode. But I think
we'll come to that a bit later is that the
person who succeeded asim Muni as the DJI of I
SI Pakistan's PI Agency fez Ammad Uh. The person who
(09:45):
succeeded Asi Munir as the chief of Pakistan's PI Agency
I SI fas ahmad Uh.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
Sorry, sorry that's not corrected.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Imran kind of liked him, but then the then Army
Chief of Pakistan did not really like him much and
he wanted someone called Nadim Anjum to take over.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
As the d G I s I.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
Now, as everyone knows, army chiefs always have the last
say in Pakistan. However, Imran Khan sort of stood up
and laid Nadim anju appointment by a few weeks and
they did.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
This did not really go down very well at this point.
Speaker 2 (10:20):
Is something that I listens to you we should sort
of keep in mind because it's going to come back
on this episode, trust me, right. So this happened in
Ran Kanada falling out. He was arrested in a very
public show where I think I remember those visuals you
had sort of like you know, commandos wearing black uniforms
taking him taking him away into jail.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
And he's been.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
Convicted uh and sentenced to jail and he's at ravel
Pindi jail over charge of corruption and.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
Stealing from the state. Lots of charges.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
And interestingly what might come up now is treason now, yeah,
because something that the d G I s p R.
The publicity being of the military said at this infamous
press confort is that he's a national secretary threat. He,
like you said, sand the sort of you know, joined
hands with India to form in trouble against the Pakistan Army.
And just a couple of days later, a minister in
(11:10):
the government said that we may consider bringing charge of
treason against him Rankhan.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
This was basically do him for.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Life now is only my big question anytime we talk
about Pakistan on this episode, on on this podcast, in
my discussions with you, you've made it very very clear
that the ultimate authority of Pakistan is the military and
the ultimate authority.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
Is the army chief.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
So this question in the first place that I began
this episode with that, at times then seems why am
I even asking that, Like, why is there a situation
where an army chief of Pakistan is scared of a
civilian politician.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
Well it's you know again, they've history always repeats itself
in Pakistan and Muni is the fifth dictator and we
ween here in India today. Was one of the first
to call out the fact that around Sindur he carried
out a soft coup right where there was all the
pretense of a civilian establishment in power. But actually Muni
(12:14):
is the guy, the power behind the throne. And it's
a hybrid regime. That's what it looked like. And now
it's it's so blatant that he is like the Supreme Commander.
And look at the titles he's crowned himself with his
Field Marshal. He is chief of Defense Forces. I mean,
if Zia and ayub be Yaya and Musharaff and all
(12:38):
the others were watching from wherever they are, they're certainly
not in heaven. All of these guys, evil guys. They
would be astonished that, you know, he is doing things
that even we never thought of, Like you was the
only guy who said I'm going to be Field Marshal
and anointed himself field Marshall late fifties, fifty eight or
fifty nine. That's the only Field Marshal they've had. By
(12:59):
the way, every other dictator is happy to be a
general because you really don't have to, you know, go
beyond a particular rank because once you're general in Pakistan,
yamy chief, that's it, right, your God. But Muni is insecure,
and he's a deeply insecure guy. If you see the
way he looks and the way he speaks. Of all
(13:21):
these four dictators, I think he's the most insecure of
the lot. The other four had a certain you know,
swagger about them. They were a little confident. Misha certainly was.
And he's the only of these five that I've personally met.
He came here for the India Today Conclave once. That's
when I met him, and I thought he was like
a I mean, for all the evil that he's done,
(13:43):
he seemed to be an incredibly confident and a calm guy. Right,
Muni doesn't seem to be like that. He's a guy who's,
you know, who's always trying to prove a point. And
I was talking to a few friends pakistanis or an
exile who don't like him very much, and they said, Buni, oh,
(14:04):
he's that you know, the OTA guy, that officer training
academy guy. So they don't call it the officer training academy,
call it ota, whatever their equivalent is. He's not even
the regular blue blooded Pakistan military, right, so he's always
had that chip on his shoulder, and he's you know,
(14:24):
always wanted to prove something against her. Whereas the other dictators,
of course they had their own problems, but the very
different personality wise. We look at these four versus Muny,
totally different. And here's the fun fact, both Muni and
General Zia in whose footsteps Muni is following right now
with the way he's going after Imran Khan. Like I said,
(14:45):
history repeats, and in this case it is the way
Zia went after right in seventy seven, again Zulfi, butto
was no saint, right, he did some incredibly vicious things,
wicked things, and he got hang is a judicial execution
seventy nine. Both General Zia and Field Marshal Assimuni are
(15:08):
from Jalandar. Right. Zia was born in Jalandar. He went
to Stephen's in Deli. Muni's parents are from Jalandar. What
are the chances of that, you know, like two dictators
coming from one city in India and that is pre
partition India, of course, So he is a guy who's
got a chip on his shoulder. He wants to prove something,
(15:30):
and that explains this consolidation of power field Marshal the
Chief of Defense Forces. I mean, there's bizarre. You know.
Chief of Defense Forces is literally like a five star
rank who controls everything, and he's basically told the Park Navy,
in the Park Air Force that you guys don't matter.
You're all now the Pakistan album.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
Yeah, so I want to understand what exactly is Muni
scared of visa vi Imran Khan. So, like I said,
this guy he's been in prison. Yeah, you don't see him.
The Kistani public does not see him except they have
a memory of him. He definitely seems to be popular.
So what and why do you think does Munir feel
(16:14):
that he needs to at some point act against him
Ran Khan in what ways we don't know yet, but
still contain him, like for example, if you have his
family demanding let us meet him, don't don't let let
him meet them.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
Hold him perhaps in soliday confinement.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
Maybe in work charge of treason against him, so you
can probably probably keep him in jail for forever, or
even hang him for that for that, for that alleged crime.
What is it exactly uh in Moni's head right now
that he fears Imran Khan can end up doing one
day that would sort of you know.
Speaker 3 (16:47):
So what is the military? What is the Pakistan Army chief?
For a Pakistan Army dictator, fear the most, fear's the civilians.
A powerful civilian, right, someone who can stand up to him,
who has the legitimacy, who has the will and the
backing of the people, right which Imran Khan has. And
you have to give it to Imran Khan. I think
(17:09):
he is one of the bravest politicians in the world today.
He is staring down a dictator who can kill him,
like in the snap of a finger. Right, he says,
kill him Ran Khan, tonight, just make him disappear. It
will happen. Despite that, he has been holding out for
almost two and a half years in prison, He's suffered
(17:31):
all kinds of you know, privations. He's put in solitary confinement.
Right now, one hears that he's been you know, put
in solitary confinement with six cameras. He can't meet guards.
I mean guards are looking at him. Six guards are
looking at him. Cameras and he can't meet family. So
it's like, you know that solitary confinement where they want
(17:53):
to break a person literally, they want to either make
him go insane or they want him to fall into
his knees and you know, beg for forgiveness and you know,
look for a compromise. But Iran isn't doing any of that,
and that is what's riling the dictator. Asimuni. He fears
(18:14):
the popularity of Imran Khan. He fears the mass appeal
that he has, the political legitimacy that he has. Like
take up any poll, you ask any Pakistani today and
they will tell you, hands down, Imran Khan remains insanely
popular in Pakistan. You know, Imran may have made his mistakes,
(18:35):
he's he's certainly no big friend of India or anything,
but if you look at the fact that he is
the genuinely elected people of the masters, the man of
the Masters, he's got a political party, and he's given
Pakistan the kind of respect that it never had. In cricket,
for instance, came out of nowhere and won the cricket
match the World Cup in nineteen ninety two and he
(18:58):
was already over forty people are laughing that this old
man comes out of nowhere. He's the most popular cricketer.
He wins them the cricket match, the Cricket World Cup
in ninety two. He goes on to build Pakistan's first
cancer hospital named after his mother, Shakat Khanam Hospital, incredibly popular.
(19:19):
And here's the real thing. Why is Asimun You're so
afraid of him, Ran Khan? It is because he's a Pashtun, right,
he belongs to the Nyazi tribe. But a Pashtun not
from the Northwest Frontier Province or Khyber Paktunqua. He's a
Pashun on this side of the Indus, from Punjab. He's
got roots in Lahore. That is the most dangerous combination
(19:42):
facing a Pakistan military dictator. He can't say that he's
a Patan. He is a Patan, yes, but a Patan
from this side of the Indus, the Batan from Pakistan. Panjab,
which is the you know, the epicenter of Pakistan's military society, everything,
It is the new clears of Pakistan. It's I mean,
(20:03):
everyone knows that Punjab, Pakistan's Panjab province guides the destiny
of Pakistan. And this is a politician who comes from Panjab,
who's a Pashtun and who's built a fortress in Kiber Paktunqua.
His party, the PTI has been voted to par three
(20:23):
times right in Kiber Paktun Kua as a province that's
been around since about nine years. Twenty sixteen is when
it came up. His party has been around since nineteen
ninety six. It did benefit from the Army. Incidentally, it
was propped up as a counter to the Sharif brothers
the PTI. The Army got him in in twenty eighteen.
(20:43):
They thought they could, you know, manipulate him. That was
Rail Sharif and Bajwar. But Imran then, you know, developed
a mind of his own and the Americans didn't like
that very much either. Now, for all their claims of
supporting democracy, and the Americans love dictators. They love dictators
(21:04):
when they're doing the dirty work for them. And you
have to hear this from Trump. Oh he's my favorite
Field Marshal. Not a word about what he's done to
the legitimately elected Prime Minister of Pakistan or anything, but
Muni gets the job done. So he's like a hit man.
So they you know, the Americans love dictators because they deliver.
Who wants to go through this messy thing of a
(21:25):
prime minister, politics and assemblies and Senates and you know
all of that. We just want the job done, and
dictators deliver. So and that's one of the reasons that
he's not popular with the Americans either. So here is
the thing that Imran is not only being targeted by
the Park Army. The Americans don't care for him very
(21:46):
much either because they see that, oh he's he's not pliable.
Pliable politicians are not useful for Western powers. So if
Imran stands up and as uh, you know, as as
blunt as he's been, he's actually wrote that, you know
the edit piece in the Telegraph last year, I remember
(22:09):
where he actually says that if anything happens to me,
I will blame for it. And he says I will
not bend, I will not bow, I will not beg
He actually signed that off. So it's like, uh, you know,
what does money to do? Now? We can keep trying
to do this, trying to make him bend break. It's
it's fascinating. It's like a who would want to watch
(22:30):
an Ott series? Uh fiction? When you have this real
life Ott series playing out in Pakistan.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
Yeah, yeah, just hold that thought on what would money
do because I'm gonna circle back to that. But this
do a recap of the years when Imran Khan was
propped up by the Pakistan military, supported by then they
liked him. Yeah, he came to power and then what happened?
Speaker 1 (22:55):
What happened that he today is.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
In jail in the condition that he is and to
a point that he that the Field Marshal of the
Country Act now might be even thinking of executing you
do them. So what went wrong in the periods when
I Rankhan was the PM of Pakistan and how did
this country reach the stage today?
Speaker 3 (23:13):
Yeah? So you know the as as you know, Pakistan
is a rentier state. It needs external support. It needs
external funding, whether it's your im for your World Bank
or American aid. And a time when the Western powers
become more interested in Pakistan traditionally is when dictators have flourished.
(23:36):
And these have been very dim times for democracies in Pakistan,
right and democracy in Pakistan anyway, it's it's a very
it's it's a it's a bonn side democracy in any case,
it can never flourish under a h You know the
Pakistan Army. The Pakistan Army is the only institution in
Pakistan is really strong and it does not allow anything
(23:57):
to grow under its shadow. So periodically what you see
is that over the years, from the sixties and the
seventies a, you have external powers that are interested in
Pakistan's due location political position. That in the fifties and
sixties you had Sento and Siatto and NATO and all
(24:19):
that trying to contain the Soviet Union and of course China.
So Ayub is the field marshal. He becomes really useful
to the Americans. Then you have Yaya Khan who takes
over his Ayub's protegy in sixty nine. He's really important
because he says, look, I can bring the Chinese to you.
So he becomes really important to Kissinger, so they turn
(24:40):
a blind eye to what he's doing in East Pakistan,
which becomes Bangladesh really useful. Zia overthrows Bhuto, executes him,
but suddenly becomes really useful to the West because you
have this war in Afghanistan, and therefore Zia is the
frontline ally in this war. Two thousand and one happens
and perves musharof is already a dictator. He's overthrown Navas Sharif,
(25:03):
and Sharif begs for his life and he's sent to
Saudi Araba in exile. And just when you think that
Musharaf is going to be a prior lo and behold
nine eleven happens. They need him for the war in Afghanistan.
And now, I believe in Muni's case, there's been a
confluence of many things that have happened, and the biggest
(25:24):
thing is that the United States realizes that China is
the big threat militarily and economically in a way the
Soviet Union was not. And you need a country on
the southern flanks of China which is close to Afghanistan,
all of those areas close to the Persian Gulf, which
can offer you a lot of things. It can offer
(25:44):
you bases, it can offer you resources, it can offer
you corridors, all of that. And that is the deal,
the Fostian bargain that the Park military has struck with
the US administration. And you see this playing out of
the last couple of years, slowly till the time that
Trump comes to office, and suddenly the game changes. We
think Trump is friendly to India. But USI movie has
(26:09):
got another deal going within and we saw that emerging
during Opsindur when the statements that came out of the
White House were not exactly favorable to us. So there
is a and what followed that only strengthened belief that
somehow the Park Military had got to the White House
or to Trump made themselves useful once more. So if
(26:32):
you hear Trump's language, like I said, oh, he's my
favorite Field Marshal, and he's been hosted there twice or thrice,
once for lunch. He's had three visits to the United States,
high profile ones, two visits to the White House, one
public and one quiet lunch. I mean this kind of thing.
(26:54):
When is the last time you heard a Park Army
chief being featured like this in the White House. And
so they've become useful, They made themselves useful to the
United States. And it's really bad times for democracy. And
Imran is uh, you know, the fall guy. He's been
thrown under the bus.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
So lately, right, and you know, every time I read
about this, uh, there's always this undercurrent that also with
respect to Imran Khan, it's deeply personal. And this is
what I was referring to in the opening when I
talked about the controversy that happened when Imran Khan was
the Prime Minister of the Succession War sort of that
took place in the in the in the is SI.
(27:31):
So you had Asi Munir who served as d G
I s A, and then you had Fez Hamid.
Speaker 1 (27:35):
Who took over UH.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
Then then our army chief General Kamar Bajwa wanted the
Manjum to take over, but like I said, Imrankan sort
of delayed that appointment, basically making it seem as though
he did not want him and he wanted as Hamid
to continue. This is right around the time there was
a lot of murmurs in media reporting that factions within
(27:57):
Pakistani Army had opened up UH. And this was, let's say,
new reporting, because this is not something you're very often
that you know, you have generals and left tan generals
them sort of fighting each other and stuff like that.
This episode that took place, it was very interesting for
me back then as well, but I never obviously made
connections that you know, we can now do perhaps in hindsight.
(28:20):
So what do you make of this episode that took
place back then? Is it linked to whatever feelings are
Munier may have to have for him.
Speaker 3 (28:27):
So to add to all of this, to add to
what the geopolitical churning that's going on, you know in
the world with the US China rivalry and of course
Pakistan playing all its cards, is the fact that Muni
is someone who never forgets a slight. And there's reason
to believe that this Munir versus Imran rivalry began when
(28:47):
Imran was the Prime Minister and he truncated Muni's term
as II chief. He got a very short term of
six six months, right, and let's not forget that in
that six months is when he planned and executed the
pull Wama suicide bombing that happened on Muni's watch. That
should have been a big red flag to us back then.
That So I always say that every time there's a
(29:10):
terror attack, a big terror attack in India, you have
to look across the border to see who the DG
I s I is and who the Army chief is.
And in this case, the d G.
Speaker 1 (29:18):
I s I was interesting. I don't I missed this connection.
Speaker 3 (29:23):
So it's it's Pulwama and Pehelgam. So the two big
terror attacks against India in the last six years have
been carried out under the watchful eye of as Munir,
and that should have actually triggered off something. But this
is the time when Munir comes into the ISI and
he starts investigating Imran Khan and bush A bb Yes,
(29:44):
that there are some financial irregularities and all of that.
Of course, there would be financially irregularities, right Pakistan is
some of the most corrupt politicians in the world. They
have houses all over the you know, across the world,
in Dubai, in London, and you know, it's it's all
there in the public domain. Everyone knows that. It's a
worst kept secret, not even a secret. In fact, they
(30:05):
look across the border and they laugh at how modest
ar politicians are compared to their there. It's like, you know,
everyone's a Rahman and the kite, you know, in Pakistan.
So he began this thing of you know, investigating Bushra
Bibi's dealings and the fact that they corrupt and they've
made money and you know, all of that, and that
(30:26):
is when that's what got Imran's goat. And my sense
is that the seeds of that rivalry were sewn in
at that time in nineteen and when he was kind
of kicked out of the II chair DJI is a
very short term. Six months is nothing. And he was
made I think QMG Master General or something like that,
(30:46):
and he would he would have retired and gone. But
for the way circumstances you know, played out. Imran of
course was unseated in It was a twenty twenty three
and a whole lot of things kind of lined up
to make his exit, to hasten his exit, and of
course Moni is the one who took the maximum benefit
(31:06):
out of that, and he triggered off this crisis with India.
So you know, you have to ask yourself looking back
at that, was this a script that was written a
few years back, This whole thing of I will take
over as army chief, then I will do the following.
I will provoke India with a terror attack, knowing that
(31:27):
India will respond militarily. When India responds militarily, I will
use the crisis to present myself as the only savior
of Pakistan. And please don't listen to the civilians, because
only the military can save you. So this is what
the Pakistan military is one of those It's like one
of those creatures in science fiction, one of the Star
(31:49):
Trek episodes, which actually thrives on chaos and fear and
you know, anger and emotion and all of that. If
you had civilian rule in Pakistan and was peace with India,
they would have no reason to command the kind of
budgetary resources that they're there, like a parasite that is
literally sucking the life blood out of Pakistan. They believe
(32:12):
that the state of Pakistan exists to provide for the
Pakistan military sagarison state. And so that was the script
actually written somewhere much before the Pulwama Pahlgam attacks, before
Absindur was triggered off. And which is why you have
to play this very carefully. If you attack Pakistan, for instance,
(32:36):
absindor two point zero has been spoken about. It's a
very easy thing to do. Be we have the capability
to inflict horrific military punishment from Pakistan today, given the
kind of military edge that we have. But by doing so,
are we strengthening Munir? Are we making Imran Khan's position untenable?
(32:58):
I mean, these are questions that you must ask and
therefore there are some very wise and lists on our side,
like pr Shank for who argues that, and he has
he has a point there where he says that we
must not strike Markistan militarily because you're playing to Muni's script.
(33:19):
He wants you to hit him. You have to tackle
this very smartly. To tackle it politically means other than military.
Speaker 2 (33:26):
That's a very good point because I think for several
years you've sort of been lulled into this, uh, this
this false, this this fallicy that you know, the military
over there is more or less I wouldnt say benign,
but it's not as harmful as it used to be previously.
And this is something we've discussed a previous episode that
(33:47):
when Asimuni took charge as the Pakistan Army chief, were
these questions that were not raised by our intelligence agencies
in terms of the profile they may have done of him,
in terms of highlighting, oh this guy is but maybe
he's he's turned out to be a bigger red flag
than anybody could have even imagined.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
That. Absolutely, you know, I completely agree. And the fact
is that to all military leaders, all generals in Pakistan,
they have, you know, personality profiles are done of them
and they try and predict the way they are. And
in Muni's case. Also, I'm sure that would have actually happened.
They would have done that. The military is very diligent
in what they do. Are in aw they also do
(34:25):
these side profiles. But there's possible reason to believe that
no one thought, no one imagined that he would you
carry out these kind of threats, and some of these
threats are routine that oh, you know, you have to
accuse India of doing this, and you're fighting a thousand
year civilizational battle and all that. Muni was unusually vocal
in what he said. Yes, and the fact that he
(34:48):
mentioned that we are going to become a hard state.
I think those kind of signals were not paid adequate
attention to. We should have immediately figured that when he
says hard state, it means it can only mean one thing.
A terror attack is coming, and that's what happened in Pelgam.
But Muni again, I mean, it's like a you know,
(35:09):
a Blackstone event of sorts, because we've not seen a
dictator like this in Pakistan. So yes, possibly we've not
seen a military dictator in Pakistan for more than a decade. Yes, yes, right,
And it's quite possible we missed the signs that here's
another one, he's the fifth. Here's number five.
Speaker 1 (35:26):
Right. We'll talk more about this, but after a quick.
Speaker 4 (35:28):
Break, Unis will be the president and a very powerful
president with a lot of powers and other roles will
other ministries in a deputy Prime minister, Home Minister will
be Jamak people who will again be the power, who
will wield actual power.
Speaker 5 (35:43):
So in a way, in nineteen seventy one, when India
helped Bangladesh become independent, free it self from the clutches
of radical Islamists, the same radical Islamist that their future
generations are now in control of Bangladesh.
Speaker 4 (36:00):
Absolutely the same Pakistan is back in control of Bangladesh.
Speaker 5 (36:03):
The way Pakistani generals are visiting, from the Chief of
General Staff to the is SI officers, the military exchanges
that are happening, Navy to navy exchanges that are happening,
What does that mean for India.
Speaker 4 (36:14):
And we're very very uh you know, concerning for India
because they they they're you know, parking their submarines out there,
they're sending their forces and we will see we may
see a repeat of what happened, what had happened when
the BNP and JAMA were in power with Kalidas as
(36:35):
a Prime minister. We all know, you know very well
that militant groups of northeaster, they were being harbored and
sheltered and armed and trained in Bangladesh at that time
by the by Pakistan's I s. I though, things have
improved in the northeast and we don't have those militant
groups any longer. But you know, every anyone can claim
is chief and you know COmON trouble. You know, there
(36:58):
are lots of trouble points as we all know, so
I think it's going to be bad for.
Speaker 1 (37:07):
Welcome back.
Speaker 2 (37:08):
You know, there's something I obviously want to obviously uh
talk about the future now, what happens to Rankhan possibly,
But before we do that, there's something to sort of
take off from what you just told us before the
break and something that I want to talk about at
the end. But the thing I'll do that now is
the sort of ingredients you need for a Pakistani military
(37:30):
officer to develop the god complex of the level that
we're talking about right now, whether it was Ausharaff now
you have Asi Munir. The reason I asked that is
because is that not every Pakistan Army chief ends up
becoming that. Right, Not every Pakistan Army officer ends up
becoming that, but these.
Speaker 1 (37:51):
Certain guys do.
Speaker 2 (37:52):
I think you've answered that in part during the first
half of our of our of our episode when you
talked about the opportunity is especially the ones provided by
the US. So, like you said, Pakistan is cheeking state
and when the US wants Pakistan to do what to do,
whatever it wants to, the army chief of that particular
period automatically becomes gets into the hot seat. But apart
(38:15):
from that, are there personality q works? Are there specific
regions from where from where they are? Are there specific
regiment from where they are? Are there specific sort of
uh you know, the line of succession that they may
have seen in the Pakistani military that they expose them
to certain events that you have an arsimony being born,
(38:36):
you have a being born, you have are you being
born and being born?
Speaker 3 (38:41):
Yeah? I a good question theyve And you know, the
the funny thing about Pakistani generals is that many of
the civilians who have kind of taken these guys very likely.
You know, Mamarabandai, he won't do anything wrong and he
turns out to be the most vicious of the lot
This is a case with Zulfi Bhuto when he made
(39:05):
Ziaoul the chief the park military. Zia was one of
the most unassuming and the most humble and obsequious of
all the army chiefs. He was way down in the
list of I think what there were three or four names,
and Zia's was not the first name I remember that much.
But he, you know ingratiated himself to Sulfikarto. And you
(39:31):
have that thing of Zulfi bhutto picking his own executioner,
you know, from a list of generals, and he says, no, no,
I won't take this guy. Not this guy. This guy
looks so good. And he had already consolidated probably a
very powerful civilian ruler because he had actually come at
a time it had become the Prime Minister of Pakistan,
President of Pakistan when Pakistan was just the military had
(39:57):
lost legitimacy after the seventy one war. They were literally
people were stoning and belting stones at them and abusing
them for the kind of defeat and the fact that
they had some forty or fifty thousand prisoners of war
inn Indian camps. For two years. We kept them for
two years. We fed them and you know, entertained them
for two years. And that is the time that Zulfi Bhutto,
(40:19):
you know, said that, oh okay, now I've got all
the power in my hands. And he actually started the
nuclear weapons program and it was in his watch that
Pakistan began its clandestine nuclear weapons program. So when Zia
took over in nineteen seventy seven, he not only grabbed
the reins of power from Zulfi Bhutto, but also took
(40:39):
over the nuclear program. And the Park military has been
running it ever since for nearly fifty years now. So
I think it's a lot of these dictators managed to
conceal their inner dictator very well. And I believe it's
always a personality thing. They have a little god complex
in them which is completely missed by the civilians. Like
(41:03):
you look at Ziaula now we see him in hindsight
as that very evil. If you see, if you read
beneze Buto's Daughter of the East, where she paints this
thing of it looked like an English cartoon book villain,
you know, with his mustaches and his eyes and his
eyes look very you know, Zia's eyes are a dead giveaway.
And then you come to Musharaff. Musharoff again was the
(41:23):
very you know, yes, Sir Hanji, you know that kind
of thing, very pleased all and Navashal we've got lulled
into this sense of you know, false sense of complacency.
And similarly with Muni, he's loved whoever he's been dealing with,
including Imran Khan. I'm sure Imran never figured that he
would become he would actually threaten not just him but
(41:44):
his family and his entire political career is an entire legacy.
So that's what it's at stake in Pakistan. Right now.
You have Muni, whose clock incidentally has started now he's
reset the clock fourth of December twenty twenty five. I
get this fire year tenure as Chief of Defense Forces.
After that he's probably going to get another extension and
(42:08):
he's here for the long haul. Like all park military dictators,
they usually ruled for about what Aub was the longest,
eleven years. Oh no, sorry, Zia was the longest. Ziao
had eleven years, Ayub had about ten and uh the
who was the third? Yeah, and the fourth, the fourth
(42:30):
and the unluckiest of the lot is the Yaya just
about two years and eight months or something. So he's
looking at a long tenure for himself ten years or so,
five years ten. He's here for the long haul, and
he sees the only obstacle in his path as Imran Khan.
He is that force in being, that who refuses to
(42:50):
be cowed down, to bend, to submit, to seek a
truce or you know. So that's why the military is
going helpful, like the going after him, trying to destroy
his reputation, his family, his political party, destroy him physically mentally,
all of that. It's it's unprecedented, what's going on there?
Speaker 2 (43:10):
Yeah, right, So also taking off from there and asking
something that you normally don't ask about armies militaries because
they are usually separated completely from the days from a
country's politics.
Speaker 1 (43:24):
But this is a military like no other.
Speaker 2 (43:28):
Is the ambitions of the top generals of the Pakistani Army.
The reason I asked that is also, I think because
we can sort of link it to Imran Khan and
Wari and scare of him. What we discussed the whole
Succession war, the succession fiasco.
Speaker 1 (43:45):
Of that took place with is I under Imran Khan.
Speaker 2 (43:49):
Like I said, there were murmurs that there was some
factionalism within the Pakistan Army and then eventually the one
faction sort of carry out a purge of all the
generals were believed to be in a Ran Khan's camp
or they were you know, and i'm.
Speaker 1 (44:03):
And i'm by by Imran Khan.
Speaker 2 (44:07):
Uh you said something right now, and you also have
said this, had said this previously as well, that he's
he's put himself there for five years and very crucially
he will not wacate the Pakistani Army chiefs chair.
Speaker 1 (44:19):
Yes he's not there.
Speaker 2 (44:22):
That that basically means every other left and general right
now can just like think of his you know, ambitions
of becoming a Pakistan Army chief goodbye every other many
major journals as well, who are on the cast of
retiring in the in the next five years. Maybe even
a couple of offices down the.
Speaker 3 (44:38):
Orderly the brigadiers.
Speaker 2 (44:41):
Yeah, there's a chance, there's a there's a whole bunch
of officers privately, some of them will not be happy.
Speaker 1 (44:48):
Some of them might be abusing.
Speaker 2 (44:49):
Asimuni by the way, because again, like I said, this
is no normal military This is a post that gets
you dealings with the best. This is a post that
eventually allows for anglows in London. This is a post
that allows for a lot of things. You're the CEO
of a company.
Speaker 3 (45:05):
Basically you would not want to You're a country who
would not want to be that.
Speaker 1 (45:09):
So there is a risk.
Speaker 2 (45:11):
There is a chance of some certain channels not being
very happy and if Imran Khan's image is allowed to remain,
they might end up drifting towards him. Once again, that
already happened. By the way, is this also something that
you think would be playing on arsimon needs mind? This
is and can this actually beloved reality? By the way, yeah,
it could. You never know.
Speaker 3 (45:29):
I mean, you know again you just have to look
back into history. There are what there've been for military
dictators before that, and there are basically four distinct parts
of what happened, and this possibly gives you an idea
of what could happen with the fifth. Right, This is
the first one is are you? Are you the rules?
(45:49):
For about ten years, he's thrown out of power because
he launches his war against India and sixty five there's
economic collapse, there's widespread discontent, people come out in the
streets and he's forced out literally and he as he leaves.
He annoyance Yaya his protegy. He rules for another two
(46:11):
years and eight months. And there is a Pakistan before Yahya,
and there's a Pakistan after Yaya. It's like half of Pakistan.
So he's booted out and he spends his last days
in house arrest, literally dies a broken man. Then you
have Ziyah again, takes over and eleven years and a
(46:31):
creative exploding mangoes and that aircraft goes up in still
not solved, and nobody is in Pakistan seems to be
very interested in solving it either. Yeah, it's like these
things happen all the time. And Uh Musharraf he's forced out,
he's humiliated, he's uh declared a criminal, and he's accused of,
(46:52):
you know, assassinating Benezi buto all of that, and he
dies in exile in Dubai, you know, and he's like
shrunk and you see those last pictures of him. These
are the four roots before every Pakistan military dictator. Why
does Muni believe that his route is going to be
any different from these four previous routes that have been taken.
(47:14):
And there are no happy dictators in Pakistan right, There
are no happy dictators. There are no retired dictators. They're
all either dead, disgraced, diseased and dead. There's no you know,
happy ending. There's no way this ends happily for any dictator.
And Muni possibly is it's like that one of those
(47:35):
sci fi tropes where this guy goes back into time
and tries to change the thing. But every time he
you know, destiny and that clock brings him to a
certain through various routes, it always comes down to that
thing where he fails. And that seems to be the
case with Muni as well. I don't believe he's going
to have a very bright this thing. But for reasons
(47:56):
that you mentioned, there are so many there's so much
of discus within the park, military, within civilians who believe
that you know, the fact that he's torturing Imran Khan,
you know, all all of these things. All of this
is going to add up, and it's a tinder box
and Pakistan has always been a tinder box, and sooner
or later it's going to explode. Yeah, it could happen
(48:19):
this year, it could happen the next year. But Munir
is essentially he's living on borrowed time.
Speaker 2 (48:25):
Yeah, he's living on borrow time, and that's probably the
fate of Munir. What about the fate of the person
we talked of on this episode, Imran Khan. What do
you think is going to happen there? What actual options
do you think Munir has on his hands? Because also
I think he would not want to run the risk
of martyring Imran Khan as well, right, because that would
actually create a.
Speaker 1 (48:45):
Bigger sort of a problem for him.
Speaker 2 (48:48):
So one if him being the field Marshal, if him
being at the helm of the Pakistani military is just
so easy for him to deal with Imran Khan, Why
as hasn't he sort of sort of done that so far?
And what probably is he scheming of?
Speaker 3 (49:05):
You know, a good question, and I think Muni doesn't
know the answer to this one question. Is Imran Khan
alive a bigger threat to him? Or is it dead?
Imran Khan a bigger threat to a very good point.
He has not found the answer to that. And I
believe that what they've been doing in the last couple
(49:25):
of weeks, the park military is putting out those trial balloons. Okay,
let's put him into isolation and you know, float those
rumors of his death and see how the world reacts.
So you know what you do is it's a probing attack.
That's because these are military chaps. They launch a probe
to see the reaction. So they've launched a probe and
(49:47):
they've kind of figured okay, the family came out. Iran's
four sisters incredible ladies they you know, at this age,
and they're all a than Imran Khan. He's the youngest
of five kids, right, All four sisters have come out
in defense, and you know every brother would want sisters
(50:09):
like this, so fighting, you know, tooth and nail for him.
So the family has come out. His sons, you know
in the UK, have been trying to rally support. People
have of course come out. We can handle that. But
I think what they've noticed is that the Western media
is by and large very ambivalent about this. The Western
(50:33):
leaders aren't talking too much about that. So now they've
got a fair idea. If actually something happens to him,
then you know, we know how things are going to
react and maybe we can control it. So I think
they are in that mode trying, you know, what do
we do with Imran? So I mean with Imran, I
think there are about three scenarios that could play out
(50:54):
in twenty twenty six, assuming nothing happens in the next
few days in December, in twenty twenty six, three things
will happen. A. The military will continue its repression of Imran,
his family, the PTI. They want to get the you know,
de recognize the PTI as a political party. And that's why.
Speaker 6 (51:12):
The the the anti national the national security and the
treason things have been invoked that you can disqualify a
party based on these very grievous charges.
Speaker 3 (51:25):
They want to do that. That that will continue. So
chances are this will continue about there's a more than
fifty percent chance of this continuing. There is a second
possibility that there could be some kind of a compromise
that well, you know, some third country enters and says, look,
give him a safe passage to buy London, Dubai London.
(51:46):
There's that palace in Saudi Arabia that Nava Sharif once
lived in for several years. And you know why, you
know why, it is just wait out this regime, come
back and fight. Imran is relatively young, he's what seventy
two years. He's got a long political career. You know,
Muni as the one who has to worry about retirement.
(52:06):
Imran is eternal as a politician, and that could be
option number two. And the third is that there could
be a violent overthrow of the military of the existing
Sharif regime, the Shabaz Sharif regime. They could be public protests,
they could be break down anarchy, all of that. So
(52:27):
I think given these three scenarios, and of course a
fourth scenario is the black Swan event, which could be
the death of one of these principal characters, in which
case then everything kind of changes. If something happens to Irankan,
if something happens to one of the other politicians or
even the army chief, then I think the whole the
game gets reset. Right. But as of now, it appears
(52:50):
that these are the three probable trajectories that you'll see
in twenty twenty six, and I think base stone what
we've seen in the last couple of months, military will
continue its repression of Ran Khan and Is and he's
unlikely to bend or break because if he bends, if
he breaks, then people will say, hey, listen, we fought
(53:11):
with you and you just gave up, you know, So
he's now got his reputation, and you know this thing
of the Pashtuns Wau and you know the Pashtoon Kizaba
and Patan Kizaba and all of those tropes he has
to play to. And the other one, of course, is
that the compromise seems unlikely. Yeah, overthrow, it's rarely happened
(53:32):
in Pakistan. It's happened once with once or twice, I
think once with a You for sure that they forced
him out into exile. But it seems difficult to imagine
that in present things, when Muni is so powerful, he's
consolidated all power into the ease. Like you said, the
most powerful military ruler in Pakistan today never had a
(53:55):
leader as powerful as this. Everything he is, you know,
Field Marshal General, Admiral, Air Chief Marshal A Ladin, you know,
like Sasha, he's everything. So he is the most powerful thing.
And you know, so I would think that what we
(54:15):
will see in twenty twenty six is an extension of
what we saw in twenty twenty five, unless, of course,
there is the Black Swan, Yeah, the Black Swan event. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (54:24):
And I get your point about and overthrow being unlikely,
because I think for that you also need a covert
sort of support and backing and involvement of foreign agencies,
whether they are intelligence agencies, whether there's so called think tanks,
stuff like that, and that, like you said, isn't really
happening right now, at least when as far as the
(54:44):
best is concerned.
Speaker 1 (54:45):
So yeah, that overthrow is does seem unlikely.
Speaker 2 (54:50):
But what happens next is what is something that we
will know only in a few in a few weeks,
So we'll keep an eye out and we'll talk more
on this once we have some more to go off.
By that's it, I think we'll end the episode there.
Thanks a lot, fantastic chat, and I think I the
summary and the headline point of this chat is what
(55:11):
you said at.
Speaker 1 (55:12):
The very end.
Speaker 2 (55:13):
It's not because it's something I never even thought of
that you know, Parsimoni hasn't realized, hasn't figured out Imran Khan.
Is he a bigger threat if he's alive or if
he's dead. And that's actually a very very solid state
poart to me.
Speaker 1 (55:26):
So thanks on the fantastic chat.
Speaker 3 (55:27):
As always, thanks for having me there.
Speaker 2 (55:29):
And thanks as always to our listeners of viewers. That's
it for the Sweet Defense does for more, Tune in
next week. Till then, stay safe, not toss any boundaries
without a passport.
This is India Today Podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Welcome to Season three of Another Defense, the podcast that
takes you inside the world of conflict. I'm your host,
Deve Goswami and every week I sit down with experts
and retired officers from the Army, Navy and Air Force
to decode all things to do with India security and
explore what it truly means to serve. Get ready for
(00:27):
stories of strategy, sacrifice and strength.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
This is in Our Defense. Welcome to Our Defense.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Raval Pindi has him buzzing over the last few days
in Pakistan. There are staff fears in the country over
the health of him Ran Khan, who's not been seen
in public. I mean he's a prisoner there, so he's
not really supposed to be seen in public. But there
are demands from his family, his sisters, especially that they
be allowed to meet him, that he make a physical
appearance once because there is a lot of worry about
(00:58):
the state of his physical health. There were even some
wide rumors circulated last week that he may have been
killed inside the jail, but those rumors turned out he
mostly false news because the sisters didn't manage to have
one visit with him in prison.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
The sisters alleged that.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
The former Pakistan PM is being kept under isolation and
all this is happening as Field Marshal Asseimunir strengthens his
hold on the country. He right now is the most
powerful military leader of Pakistan in several years, and I
think in his mind he's now on the path to
(01:36):
becoming Pakistan's most powerful military leader ever, surpassing all previous
field marshals and generals who also had being dictators.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
So why is Asimuni worried of Imran Khan?
Speaker 3 (01:51):
Ilb that? So?
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Why is Aseimuni scared of Imrankan? At least that's the
impression you get, especially if you listen to a press
conference that was held earlier this week by the Director
Journal of the Publicity Being of the Pakistani military.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
You're gonna get to that.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Why is muny scared of Imran Khan? What's really going
on in Pakistan? To decode this and more, I have
with me as always, are good to be back. Yeah,
before we begin the chats and the I don't know
if you've come across this piece of breaking news broken
by our very own Tao from the Tenthal podcast hosted
(02:29):
on our sister channel asked the radio Field Marshal Asi
Muni has promoted Lieutenant General M. Sharif Sory to the
post of Wing Commander of Pakistan, referring to a video
that's gone viral this morning on social media where he
is the Director General of the Military Ving of the
(02:51):
Military Puplicving and while answering to a question posed by
a female journalist, he sort of wind at her the
video could, by the way, be a doctor. We don't
know that, but it has gone viral. The words the
lip sing seems to match. But yeah, this is happening
in Pakistan.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
As you speak, Stranger things have happened, and stranger things
have happened in Pakistan, and strange things may happen, especially.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
With respect to the topic that we're about to discuss.
Speaker 3 (03:18):
You know.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Before we start though, something you mentioned just before we
began recording, something to do with what you saw when
you were at some military site in Delhi a couple
of days ago. Is a weird connection you found between
Field Marshal Arsimunir and Field Marshal Sam Maniche.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
Both commissioned in the same regiment, the Frontier US and
the British Engine and the British, of course, and the
field Marshal, our field marshal, a genuine field marshal, was
appointed by the Government of India, was commission into the
Frontier Force and they called Piffers. It was p i
(03:59):
F because were called pif his Punjab irregular forces something
about their origin. So his dog incidentally was called Piffer
Manikshaw's dog in the famous pictures. So they were both
commissioned into that regiment. Of course, the Field Marshal Manic Shaw,
when he was a young officer, I think he was
a major or a left in colonel. He had to
(04:19):
opt for India, of course, because the Frontier Force went
to Pakistan and he chose the Gorka ragement. And that's
how you continue to be a Gorkha officer right until
the time that he was, you know, a field marshal,
and of course until his death in two thousand and eight.
But this is an interesting rate of trivia and actually
tells you the two different trajectories, the two armans and
(04:41):
the two countries, and indeed the two individuals that one
was made a field marshal. Field Marshal Manic Shaw was
made Field Marshal by the government in nineteen seventy three
after a spectacular victory in the Bangladesh War, where you
created a new nation in just about nine month and
a two week military campaign. And on the other hand,
(05:04):
you have you know, in Pakistan Field Marshal Arsimoni who
annoints himself Field Marshal after suffering one of the most
devastating military you know attacks since nineteen seventy one, and
in the military has never suffered this kind of single
day loss since nineteen seventy one. So essentially a you know,
(05:24):
a metaphor about the trajectories of these two nations and
of course the two armies and individuals.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Yeah, you know, since you talked about nineteen seventy one
with respect to Sam Janik show and Aasimuni, and we've
discussed the obsession of Pakistani army in previously Up with India. Yeah,
it also reminded me of something that Abishek Pala on
season one had spoken about that a lot of Pakistan's
current officer courps. Of course, they have that angst of
(05:54):
seventy one, So apart from the whole theory on which
Pakistan has founded, Apart from that, the seventy one loss
rankles them till this date. So a lot of their
outlook towards India, a lot of their how they how
they plan plan sort of operations against India sort of
also comes back comes from there.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
That that that loss, that.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
Still absolutely it rankles, you know it rankles because you know,
not only did you create Bangladesh, but there was that
very public humiliation of that surrender. You know, you had
the entire garrison surrendering en mass and those images and
they will go on for as long as Pakistan is around.
You know, officers lowering their you know, taking off their ranks,
(06:36):
epults lowering their weapons and all that. That's the worst
thing that an army can see, you know, and that
happened to them in seventy one. It need not have happened.
They could have averted it, but they chose not to.
They chose bluster over this, and they believed in their
own invincibility. And what you have is encapsulated in that
stunning photograph of leftan journal ak and Yas signing that
(07:00):
instrument of surrender in front of left in General Aurora
and of course all the Indian military brass literally surrounding him.
He's the only Pakistani in the frame. But that's a
metaphor and that that's one of the reasons why that
defeat still rankles. It was an abject surrender. And if
(07:21):
you look at if you talk to you know, military strategicians,
they would tell you that it was possible for Niyazi
to actually fight for a few more weeks. He could
have held off, but I think he got browbeaten and
full marks of the Indian Army and General Jacob and
genl Aora and the others to kind of broadbeat him
(07:42):
into convincing him that he had no option other than surrender.
And so that that's one reason why the Pakistan military
has still not reconciled to this and will never reconcile,
because A there is seventy one and b there is
that adversary who they regard as an existential threat to Pakistan.
And of course the third aspect is and which is
(08:04):
actually the real fulcrum, is that their entire relevance is
based on anti India hatred. And what Irankan is going
through now and this is the worst worst period of
his trial by fire, is that he's being accused of
working for the enemy country India. They haven't named us,
(08:26):
but he says that he's actually an agent of India
and he's working against the Pakistan Army and our great
Field Marshal and therefore he deserves to be punished and
you know, sentenced to death even you know, these are
kind of calls that are being made by those people
who you know, really fear him. Right.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
So a recapped for our listeners and viewers as we
dive in. Imran Khan.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Needs no introduction, the cricketer who won the ninety sixty
two nineteen ninety two World Cup, I'm sorry, extremely proper
in the country.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
He became PM a few years ago.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
It was widely believed that he was propped up by
the Pakistan Army, as almost any PM who wins the
election in Pakistan usually is UH, and the army did
sort of, you know, m hm ensure that ground when
the when when the elections were taking place for him
to come to power.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
UH. But then he had a falling out like all
pms always do.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
UH.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
There was also a controversy that sort of kind of
personally involves Muni, which I think is going to be
a very important point on this episode. But I think
we'll come to that a bit later is that the
person who succeeded asim Muni as the DJI of I
SI Pakistan's PI Agency fez Ammad Uh. The person who
(09:45):
succeeded Asi Munir as the chief of Pakistan's PI Agency
I SI fas ahmad Uh.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
Sorry, sorry that's not corrected.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Imran kind of liked him, but then the then Army
Chief of Pakistan did not really like him much and
he wanted someone called Nadim Anjum to take over.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
As the d G I s I.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
Now, as everyone knows, army chiefs always have the last
say in Pakistan. However, Imran Khan sort of stood up
and laid Nadim anju appointment by a few weeks and
they did.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
This did not really go down very well at this point.
Speaker 2 (10:20):
Is something that I listens to you we should sort
of keep in mind because it's going to come back
on this episode, trust me, right. So this happened in
Ran Kanada falling out. He was arrested in a very
public show where I think I remember those visuals you
had sort of like you know, commandos wearing black uniforms
taking him taking him away into jail.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
And he's been.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
Convicted uh and sentenced to jail and he's at ravel
Pindi jail over charge of corruption and.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
Stealing from the state. Lots of charges.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
And interestingly what might come up now is treason now, yeah,
because something that the d G I s p R.
The publicity being of the military said at this infamous
press confort is that he's a national secretary threat. He,
like you said, sand the sort of you know, joined
hands with India to form in trouble against the Pakistan Army.
And just a couple of days later, a minister in
(11:10):
the government said that we may consider bringing charge of
treason against him Rankhan.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
This was basically do him for.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Life now is only my big question anytime we talk
about Pakistan on this episode, on on this podcast, in
my discussions with you, you've made it very very clear
that the ultimate authority of Pakistan is the military and
the ultimate authority.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
Is the army chief.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
So this question in the first place that I began
this episode with that, at times then seems why am
I even asking that, Like, why is there a situation
where an army chief of Pakistan is scared of a
civilian politician.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
Well it's you know again, they've history always repeats itself
in Pakistan and Muni is the fifth dictator and we
ween here in India today. Was one of the first
to call out the fact that around Sindur he carried
out a soft coup right where there was all the
pretense of a civilian establishment in power. But actually Muni
(12:14):
is the guy, the power behind the throne. And it's
a hybrid regime. That's what it looked like. And now
it's it's so blatant that he is like the Supreme Commander.
And look at the titles he's crowned himself with his
Field Marshal. He is chief of Defense Forces. I mean,
if Zia and ayub be Yaya and Musharaff and all
(12:38):
the others were watching from wherever they are, they're certainly
not in heaven. All of these guys, evil guys. They
would be astonished that, you know, he is doing things
that even we never thought of, Like you was the
only guy who said I'm going to be Field Marshal
and anointed himself field Marshall late fifties, fifty eight or
fifty nine. That's the only Field Marshal they've had. By
(12:59):
the way, every other dictator is happy to be a
general because you really don't have to, you know, go
beyond a particular rank because once you're general in Pakistan,
yamy chief, that's it, right, your God. But Muni is insecure,
and he's a deeply insecure guy. If you see the
way he looks and the way he speaks. Of all
(13:21):
these four dictators, I think he's the most insecure of
the lot. The other four had a certain you know,
swagger about them. They were a little confident. Misha certainly was.
And he's the only of these five that I've personally met.
He came here for the India Today Conclave once. That's
when I met him, and I thought he was like
a I mean, for all the evil that he's done,
(13:43):
he seemed to be an incredibly confident and a calm guy. Right,
Muni doesn't seem to be like that. He's a guy who's,
you know, who's always trying to prove a point. And
I was talking to a few friends pakistanis or an
exile who don't like him very much, and they said, Buni, oh,
(14:04):
he's that you know, the OTA guy, that officer training
academy guy. So they don't call it the officer training academy,
call it ota, whatever their equivalent is. He's not even
the regular blue blooded Pakistan military, right, so he's always
had that chip on his shoulder, and he's you know,
(14:24):
always wanted to prove something against her. Whereas the other dictators,
of course they had their own problems, but the very
different personality wise. We look at these four versus Muny,
totally different. And here's the fun fact, both Muni and
General Zia in whose footsteps Muni is following right now
with the way he's going after Imran Khan. Like I said,
(14:45):
history repeats, and in this case it is the way
Zia went after right in seventy seven, again Zulfi, butto
was no saint, right, he did some incredibly vicious things,
wicked things, and he got hang is a judicial execution
seventy nine. Both General Zia and Field Marshal Assimuni are
(15:08):
from Jalandar. Right. Zia was born in Jalandar. He went
to Stephen's in Deli. Muni's parents are from Jalandar. What
are the chances of that, you know, like two dictators
coming from one city in India and that is pre
partition India, of course, So he is a guy who's
got a chip on his shoulder. He wants to prove something,
(15:30):
and that explains this consolidation of power field Marshal the
Chief of Defense Forces. I mean, there's bizarre. You know.
Chief of Defense Forces is literally like a five star
rank who controls everything, and he's basically told the Park Navy,
in the Park Air Force that you guys don't matter.
You're all now the Pakistan album.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
Yeah, so I want to understand what exactly is Muni
scared of visa vi Imran Khan. So, like I said,
this guy he's been in prison. Yeah, you don't see him.
The Kistani public does not see him except they have
a memory of him. He definitely seems to be popular.
So what and why do you think does Munir feel
(16:14):
that he needs to at some point act against him
Ran Khan in what ways we don't know yet, but
still contain him, like for example, if you have his
family demanding let us meet him, don't don't let let
him meet them.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
Hold him perhaps in soliday confinement.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
Maybe in work charge of treason against him, so you
can probably probably keep him in jail for forever, or
even hang him for that for that, for that alleged crime.
What is it exactly uh in Moni's head right now
that he fears Imran Khan can end up doing one
day that would sort of you know.
Speaker 3 (16:47):
So what is the military? What is the Pakistan Army chief?
For a Pakistan Army dictator, fear the most, fear's the civilians.
A powerful civilian, right, someone who can stand up to him,
who has the legitimacy, who has the will and the
backing of the people, right which Imran Khan has. And
you have to give it to Imran Khan. I think
(17:09):
he is one of the bravest politicians in the world today.
He is staring down a dictator who can kill him,
like in the snap of a finger. Right, he says,
kill him Ran Khan, tonight, just make him disappear. It
will happen. Despite that, he has been holding out for
almost two and a half years in prison, He's suffered
(17:31):
all kinds of you know, privations. He's put in solitary confinement.
Right now, one hears that he's been you know, put
in solitary confinement with six cameras. He can't meet guards.
I mean guards are looking at him. Six guards are
looking at him. Cameras and he can't meet family. So
it's like, you know that solitary confinement where they want
(17:53):
to break a person literally, they want to either make
him go insane or they want him to fall into
his knees and you know, beg for forgiveness and you know,
look for a compromise. But Iran isn't doing any of that,
and that is what's riling the dictator. Asimuni. He fears
(18:14):
the popularity of Imran Khan. He fears the mass appeal
that he has, the political legitimacy that he has. Like
take up any poll, you ask any Pakistani today and
they will tell you, hands down, Imran Khan remains insanely
popular in Pakistan. You know, Imran may have made his mistakes,
(18:35):
he's he's certainly no big friend of India or anything,
but if you look at the fact that he is
the genuinely elected people of the masters, the man of
the Masters, he's got a political party, and he's given
Pakistan the kind of respect that it never had. In cricket,
for instance, came out of nowhere and won the cricket
match the World Cup in nineteen ninety two and he
(18:58):
was already over forty people are laughing that this old
man comes out of nowhere. He's the most popular cricketer.
He wins them the cricket match, the Cricket World Cup
in ninety two. He goes on to build Pakistan's first
cancer hospital named after his mother, Shakat Khanam Hospital, incredibly popular.
(19:19):
And here's the real thing. Why is Asimun You're so
afraid of him, Ran Khan? It is because he's a Pashtun, right,
he belongs to the Nyazi tribe. But a Pashtun not
from the Northwest Frontier Province or Khyber Paktunqua. He's a
Pashun on this side of the Indus, from Punjab. He's
got roots in Lahore. That is the most dangerous combination
(19:42):
facing a Pakistan military dictator. He can't say that he's
a Patan. He is a Patan, yes, but a Patan
from this side of the Indus, the Batan from Pakistan. Panjab,
which is the you know, the epicenter of Pakistan's military society, everything,
It is the new clears of Pakistan. It's I mean,
(20:03):
everyone knows that Punjab, Pakistan's Panjab province guides the destiny
of Pakistan. And this is a politician who comes from Panjab,
who's a Pashtun and who's built a fortress in Kiber Paktunqua.
His party, the PTI has been voted to par three
(20:23):
times right in Kiber Paktun Kua as a province that's
been around since about nine years. Twenty sixteen is when
it came up. His party has been around since nineteen
ninety six. It did benefit from the Army. Incidentally, it
was propped up as a counter to the Sharif brothers
the PTI. The Army got him in in twenty eighteen.
(20:43):
They thought they could, you know, manipulate him. That was
Rail Sharif and Bajwar. But Imran then, you know, developed
a mind of his own and the Americans didn't like
that very much either. Now, for all their claims of
supporting democracy, and the Americans love dictators. They love dictators
(21:04):
when they're doing the dirty work for them. And you
have to hear this from Trump. Oh he's my favorite
Field Marshal. Not a word about what he's done to
the legitimately elected Prime Minister of Pakistan or anything, but
Muni gets the job done. So he's like a hit man.
So they you know, the Americans love dictators because they deliver.
Who wants to go through this messy thing of a
(21:25):
prime minister, politics and assemblies and Senates and you know
all of that. We just want the job done, and
dictators deliver. So and that's one of the reasons that
he's not popular with the Americans either. So here is
the thing that Imran is not only being targeted by
the Park Army. The Americans don't care for him very
(21:46):
much either because they see that, oh he's he's not pliable.
Pliable politicians are not useful for Western powers. So if
Imran stands up and as uh, you know, as as
blunt as he's been, he's actually wrote that, you know
the edit piece in the Telegraph last year, I remember
(22:09):
where he actually says that if anything happens to me,
I will blame for it. And he says I will
not bend, I will not bow, I will not beg
He actually signed that off. So it's like, uh, you know,
what does money to do? Now? We can keep trying
to do this, trying to make him bend break. It's
it's fascinating. It's like a who would want to watch
(22:30):
an Ott series? Uh fiction? When you have this real
life Ott series playing out in Pakistan.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
Yeah, yeah, just hold that thought on what would money
do because I'm gonna circle back to that. But this
do a recap of the years when Imran Khan was
propped up by the Pakistan military, supported by then they
liked him. Yeah, he came to power and then what happened?
Speaker 1 (22:55):
What happened that he today is.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
In jail in the condition that he is and to
a point that he that the Field Marshal of the
Country Act now might be even thinking of executing you
do them. So what went wrong in the periods when
I Rankhan was the PM of Pakistan and how did
this country reach the stage today?
Speaker 3 (23:13):
Yeah? So you know the as as you know, Pakistan
is a rentier state. It needs external support. It needs
external funding, whether it's your im for your World Bank
or American aid. And a time when the Western powers
become more interested in Pakistan traditionally is when dictators have flourished.
(23:36):
And these have been very dim times for democracies in Pakistan,
right and democracy in Pakistan anyway, it's it's a very
it's it's a it's a bonn side democracy in any case,
it can never flourish under a h You know the
Pakistan Army. The Pakistan Army is the only institution in
Pakistan is really strong and it does not allow anything
(23:57):
to grow under its shadow. So periodically what you see
is that over the years, from the sixties and the
seventies a, you have external powers that are interested in
Pakistan's due location political position. That in the fifties and
sixties you had Sento and Siatto and NATO and all
(24:19):
that trying to contain the Soviet Union and of course China.
So Ayub is the field marshal. He becomes really useful
to the Americans. Then you have Yaya Khan who takes
over his Ayub's protegy in sixty nine. He's really important
because he says, look, I can bring the Chinese to you.
So he becomes really important to Kissinger, so they turn
(24:40):
a blind eye to what he's doing in East Pakistan,
which becomes Bangladesh really useful. Zia overthrows Bhuto, executes him,
but suddenly becomes really useful to the West because you
have this war in Afghanistan, and therefore Zia is the
frontline ally in this war. Two thousand and one happens
and perves musharof is already a dictator. He's overthrown Navas Sharif,
(25:03):
and Sharif begs for his life and he's sent to
Saudi Araba in exile. And just when you think that
Musharaf is going to be a prior lo and behold
nine eleven happens. They need him for the war in Afghanistan.
And now, I believe in Muni's case, there's been a
confluence of many things that have happened, and the biggest
(25:24):
thing is that the United States realizes that China is
the big threat militarily and economically in a way the
Soviet Union was not. And you need a country on
the southern flanks of China which is close to Afghanistan,
all of those areas close to the Persian Gulf, which
can offer you a lot of things. It can offer
(25:44):
you bases, it can offer you resources, it can offer
you corridors, all of that. And that is the deal,
the Fostian bargain that the Park military has struck with
the US administration. And you see this playing out of
the last couple of years, slowly till the time that
Trump comes to office, and suddenly the game changes. We
think Trump is friendly to India. But USI movie has
(26:09):
got another deal going within and we saw that emerging
during Opsindur when the statements that came out of the
White House were not exactly favorable to us. So there
is a and what followed that only strengthened belief that
somehow the Park Military had got to the White House
or to Trump made themselves useful once more. So if
(26:32):
you hear Trump's language, like I said, oh, he's my
favorite Field Marshal, and he's been hosted there twice or thrice,
once for lunch. He's had three visits to the United States,
high profile ones, two visits to the White House, one
public and one quiet lunch. I mean this kind of thing.
(26:54):
When is the last time you heard a Park Army
chief being featured like this in the White House. And
so they've become useful, They made themselves useful to the
United States. And it's really bad times for democracy. And
Imran is uh, you know, the fall guy. He's been
thrown under the bus.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
So lately, right, and you know, every time I read
about this, uh, there's always this undercurrent that also with
respect to Imran Khan, it's deeply personal. And this is
what I was referring to in the opening when I
talked about the controversy that happened when Imran Khan was
the Prime Minister of the Succession War sort of that
took place in the in the in the is SI.
(27:31):
So you had Asi Munir who served as d G
I s A, and then you had Fez Hamid.
Speaker 1 (27:35):
Who took over UH.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
Then then our army chief General Kamar Bajwa wanted the
Manjum to take over, but like I said, Imrankan sort
of delayed that appointment, basically making it seem as though
he did not want him and he wanted as Hamid
to continue. This is right around the time there was
a lot of murmurs in media reporting that factions within
(27:57):
Pakistani Army had opened up UH. And this was, let's say,
new reporting, because this is not something you're very often
that you know, you have generals and left tan generals
them sort of fighting each other and stuff like that.
This episode that took place, it was very interesting for
me back then as well, but I never obviously made
connections that you know, we can now do perhaps in hindsight.
(28:20):
So what do you make of this episode that took
place back then? Is it linked to whatever feelings are
Munier may have to have for him.
Speaker 3 (28:27):
So to add to all of this, to add to
what the geopolitical churning that's going on, you know in
the world with the US China rivalry and of course
Pakistan playing all its cards, is the fact that Muni
is someone who never forgets a slight. And there's reason
to believe that this Munir versus Imran rivalry began when
(28:47):
Imran was the Prime Minister and he truncated Muni's term
as II chief. He got a very short term of
six six months, right, and let's not forget that in
that six months is when he planned and executed the
pull Wama suicide bombing that happened on Muni's watch. That
should have been a big red flag to us back then.
That So I always say that every time there's a
(29:10):
terror attack, a big terror attack in India, you have
to look across the border to see who the DG
I s I is and who the Army chief is.
And in this case, the d G.
Speaker 1 (29:18):
I s I was interesting. I don't I missed this connection.
Speaker 3 (29:23):
So it's it's Pulwama and Pehelgam. So the two big
terror attacks against India in the last six years have
been carried out under the watchful eye of as Munir,
and that should have actually triggered off something. But this
is the time when Munir comes into the ISI and
he starts investigating Imran Khan and bush A bb Yes,
(29:44):
that there are some financial irregularities and all of that.
Of course, there would be financially irregularities, right Pakistan is
some of the most corrupt politicians in the world. They
have houses all over the you know, across the world,
in Dubai, in London, and you know, it's it's all
there in the public domain. Everyone knows that. It's a
worst kept secret, not even a secret. In fact, they
(30:05):
look across the border and they laugh at how modest
ar politicians are compared to their there. It's like, you know,
everyone's a Rahman and the kite, you know, in Pakistan.
So he began this thing of you know, investigating Bushra
Bibi's dealings and the fact that they corrupt and they've
made money and you know, all of that, and that
(30:26):
is when that's what got Imran's goat. And my sense
is that the seeds of that rivalry were sewn in
at that time in nineteen and when he was kind
of kicked out of the II chair DJI is a
very short term. Six months is nothing. And he was
made I think QMG Master General or something like that,
(30:46):
and he would he would have retired and gone. But
for the way circumstances you know, played out. Imran of
course was unseated in It was a twenty twenty three
and a whole lot of things kind of lined up
to make his exit, to hasten his exit, and of
course Moni is the one who took the maximum benefit
(31:06):
out of that, and he triggered off this crisis with India.
So you know, you have to ask yourself looking back
at that, was this a script that was written a
few years back, This whole thing of I will take
over as army chief, then I will do the following.
I will provoke India with a terror attack, knowing that
(31:27):
India will respond militarily. When India responds militarily, I will
use the crisis to present myself as the only savior
of Pakistan. And please don't listen to the civilians, because
only the military can save you. So this is what
the Pakistan military is one of those It's like one
of those creatures in science fiction, one of the Star
(31:49):
Trek episodes, which actually thrives on chaos and fear and
you know, anger and emotion and all of that. If
you had civilian rule in Pakistan and was peace with India,
they would have no reason to command the kind of
budgetary resources that they're there, like a parasite that is
literally sucking the life blood out of Pakistan. They believe
(32:12):
that the state of Pakistan exists to provide for the
Pakistan military sagarison state. And so that was the script
actually written somewhere much before the Pulwama Pahlgam attacks, before
Absindur was triggered off. And which is why you have
to play this very carefully. If you attack Pakistan, for instance,
(32:36):
absindor two point zero has been spoken about. It's a
very easy thing to do. Be we have the capability
to inflict horrific military punishment from Pakistan today, given the
kind of military edge that we have. But by doing so,
are we strengthening Munir? Are we making Imran Khan's position untenable?
(32:58):
I mean, these are questions that you must ask and
therefore there are some very wise and lists on our side,
like pr Shank for who argues that, and he has
he has a point there where he says that we
must not strike Markistan militarily because you're playing to Muni's script.
(33:19):
He wants you to hit him. You have to tackle
this very smartly. To tackle it politically means other than military.
Speaker 2 (33:26):
That's a very good point because I think for several
years you've sort of been lulled into this, uh, this
this false, this this fallicy that you know, the military
over there is more or less I wouldnt say benign,
but it's not as harmful as it used to be previously.
And this is something we've discussed a previous episode that
(33:47):
when Asimuni took charge as the Pakistan Army chief, were
these questions that were not raised by our intelligence agencies
in terms of the profile they may have done of him,
in terms of highlighting, oh this guy is but maybe
he's he's turned out to be a bigger red flag
than anybody could have even imagined.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
That. Absolutely, you know, I completely agree. And the fact
is that to all military leaders, all generals in Pakistan,
they have, you know, personality profiles are done of them
and they try and predict the way they are. And
in Muni's case. Also, I'm sure that would have actually happened.
They would have done that. The military is very diligent
in what they do. Are in aw they also do
(34:25):
these side profiles. But there's possible reason to believe that
no one thought, no one imagined that he would you
carry out these kind of threats, and some of these
threats are routine that oh, you know, you have to
accuse India of doing this, and you're fighting a thousand
year civilizational battle and all that. Muni was unusually vocal
in what he said. Yes, and the fact that he
(34:48):
mentioned that we are going to become a hard state.
I think those kind of signals were not paid adequate
attention to. We should have immediately figured that when he
says hard state, it means it can only mean one thing.
A terror attack is coming, and that's what happened in Pelgam.
But Muni again, I mean, it's like a you know,
(35:09):
a Blackstone event of sorts, because we've not seen a
dictator like this in Pakistan. So yes, possibly we've not
seen a military dictator in Pakistan for more than a decade. Yes, yes, right,
And it's quite possible we missed the signs that here's
another one, he's the fifth. Here's number five.
Speaker 1 (35:26):
Right. We'll talk more about this, but after a quick.
Speaker 4 (35:28):
Break, Unis will be the president and a very powerful
president with a lot of powers and other roles will
other ministries in a deputy Prime minister, Home Minister will
be Jamak people who will again be the power, who
will wield actual power.
Speaker 5 (35:43):
So in a way, in nineteen seventy one, when India
helped Bangladesh become independent, free it self from the clutches
of radical Islamists, the same radical Islamist that their future
generations are now in control of Bangladesh.
Speaker 4 (36:00):
Absolutely the same Pakistan is back in control of Bangladesh.
Speaker 5 (36:03):
The way Pakistani generals are visiting, from the Chief of
General Staff to the is SI officers, the military exchanges
that are happening, Navy to navy exchanges that are happening,
What does that mean for India.
Speaker 4 (36:14):
And we're very very uh you know, concerning for India
because they they they're you know, parking their submarines out there,
they're sending their forces and we will see we may
see a repeat of what happened, what had happened when
the BNP and JAMA were in power with Kalidas as
(36:35):
a Prime minister. We all know, you know very well
that militant groups of northeaster, they were being harbored and
sheltered and armed and trained in Bangladesh at that time
by the by Pakistan's I s. I though, things have
improved in the northeast and we don't have those militant
groups any longer. But you know, every anyone can claim
is chief and you know COmON trouble. You know, there
(36:58):
are lots of trouble points as we all know, so
I think it's going to be bad for.
Speaker 1 (37:07):
Welcome back.
Speaker 2 (37:08):
You know, there's something I obviously want to obviously uh
talk about the future now, what happens to Rankhan possibly,
But before we do that, there's something to sort of
take off from what you just told us before the
break and something that I want to talk about at
the end. But the thing I'll do that now is
the sort of ingredients you need for a Pakistani military
(37:30):
officer to develop the god complex of the level that
we're talking about right now, whether it was Ausharaff now
you have Asi Munir. The reason I asked that is
because is that not every Pakistan Army chief ends up
becoming that. Right, Not every Pakistan Army officer ends up
becoming that, but these.
Speaker 1 (37:51):
Certain guys do.
Speaker 2 (37:52):
I think you've answered that in part during the first
half of our of our of our episode when you
talked about the opportunity is especially the ones provided by
the US. So, like you said, Pakistan is cheeking state
and when the US wants Pakistan to do what to do,
whatever it wants to, the army chief of that particular
period automatically becomes gets into the hot seat. But apart
(38:15):
from that, are there personality q works? Are there specific
regions from where from where they are? Are there specific
regiment from where they are? Are there specific sort of
uh you know, the line of succession that they may
have seen in the Pakistani military that they expose them
to certain events that you have an arsimony being born,
(38:36):
you have a being born, you have are you being
born and being born?
Speaker 3 (38:41):
Yeah? I a good question theyve And you know, the
the funny thing about Pakistani generals is that many of
the civilians who have kind of taken these guys very likely.
You know, Mamarabandai, he won't do anything wrong and he
turns out to be the most vicious of the lot
This is a case with Zulfi Bhuto when he made
(39:05):
Ziaoul the chief the park military. Zia was one of
the most unassuming and the most humble and obsequious of
all the army chiefs. He was way down in the
list of I think what there were three or four names,
and Zia's was not the first name I remember that much.
But he, you know ingratiated himself to Sulfikarto. And you
(39:31):
have that thing of Zulfi bhutto picking his own executioner,
you know, from a list of generals, and he says, no, no,
I won't take this guy. Not this guy. This guy
looks so good. And he had already consolidated probably a
very powerful civilian ruler because he had actually come at
a time it had become the Prime Minister of Pakistan,
President of Pakistan when Pakistan was just the military had
(39:57):
lost legitimacy after the seventy one war. They were literally
people were stoning and belting stones at them and abusing
them for the kind of defeat and the fact that
they had some forty or fifty thousand prisoners of war
inn Indian camps. For two years. We kept them for
two years. We fed them and you know, entertained them
for two years. And that is the time that Zulfi Bhutto,
(40:19):
you know, said that, oh okay, now I've got all
the power in my hands. And he actually started the
nuclear weapons program and it was in his watch that
Pakistan began its clandestine nuclear weapons program. So when Zia
took over in nineteen seventy seven, he not only grabbed
the reins of power from Zulfi Bhutto, but also took
(40:39):
over the nuclear program. And the Park military has been
running it ever since for nearly fifty years now. So
I think it's a lot of these dictators managed to
conceal their inner dictator very well. And I believe it's
always a personality thing. They have a little god complex
in them which is completely missed by the civilians. Like
(41:03):
you look at Ziaula now we see him in hindsight
as that very evil. If you see, if you read
beneze Buto's Daughter of the East, where she paints this
thing of it looked like an English cartoon book villain,
you know, with his mustaches and his eyes and his
eyes look very you know, Zia's eyes are a dead giveaway.
And then you come to Musharaff. Musharoff again was the
(41:23):
very you know, yes, Sir Hanji, you know that kind
of thing, very pleased all and Navashal we've got lulled
into this sense of you know, false sense of complacency.
And similarly with Muni, he's loved whoever he's been dealing with,
including Imran Khan. I'm sure Imran never figured that he
would become he would actually threaten not just him but
(41:44):
his family and his entire political career is an entire legacy.
So that's what it's at stake in Pakistan. Right now.
You have Muni, whose clock incidentally has started now he's
reset the clock fourth of December twenty twenty five. I
get this fire year tenure as Chief of Defense Forces.
After that he's probably going to get another extension and
(42:08):
he's here for the long haul. Like all park military dictators,
they usually ruled for about what Aub was the longest,
eleven years. Oh no, sorry, Zia was the longest. Ziao
had eleven years, Ayub had about ten and uh the
who was the third? Yeah, and the fourth, the fourth
(42:30):
and the unluckiest of the lot is the Yaya just
about two years and eight months or something. So he's
looking at a long tenure for himself ten years or so,
five years ten. He's here for the long haul, and
he sees the only obstacle in his path as Imran Khan.
He is that force in being, that who refuses to
(42:50):
be cowed down, to bend, to submit, to seek a
truce or you know. So that's why the military is
going helpful, like the going after him, trying to destroy
his reputation, his family, his political party, destroy him physically mentally,
all of that. It's it's unprecedented, what's going on there?
Speaker 2 (43:10):
Yeah, right, So also taking off from there and asking
something that you normally don't ask about armies militaries because
they are usually separated completely from the days from a
country's politics.
Speaker 1 (43:24):
But this is a military like no other.
Speaker 2 (43:28):
Is the ambitions of the top generals of the Pakistani Army.
The reason I asked that is also, I think because
we can sort of link it to Imran Khan and
Wari and scare of him. What we discussed the whole
Succession war, the succession fiasco.
Speaker 1 (43:45):
Of that took place with is I under Imran Khan.
Speaker 2 (43:49):
Like I said, there were murmurs that there was some
factionalism within the Pakistan Army and then eventually the one
faction sort of carry out a purge of all the
generals were believed to be in a Ran Khan's camp
or they were you know, and i'm.
Speaker 1 (44:03):
And i'm by by Imran Khan.
Speaker 2 (44:07):
Uh you said something right now, and you also have
said this, had said this previously as well, that he's
he's put himself there for five years and very crucially
he will not wacate the Pakistani Army chiefs chair.
Speaker 1 (44:19):
Yes he's not there.
Speaker 2 (44:22):
That that basically means every other left and general right
now can just like think of his you know, ambitions
of becoming a Pakistan Army chief goodbye every other many
major journals as well, who are on the cast of
retiring in the in the next five years. Maybe even
a couple of offices down the.
Speaker 3 (44:38):
Orderly the brigadiers.
Speaker 2 (44:41):
Yeah, there's a chance, there's a there's a whole bunch
of officers privately, some of them will not be happy.
Speaker 1 (44:48):
Some of them might be abusing.
Speaker 2 (44:49):
Asimuni by the way, because again, like I said, this
is no normal military This is a post that gets
you dealings with the best. This is a post that
eventually allows for anglows in London. This is a post
that allows for a lot of things. You're the CEO
of a company.
Speaker 3 (45:05):
Basically you would not want to You're a country who
would not want to be that.
Speaker 1 (45:09):
So there is a risk.
Speaker 2 (45:11):
There is a chance of some certain channels not being
very happy and if Imran Khan's image is allowed to remain,
they might end up drifting towards him. Once again, that
already happened. By the way, is this also something that
you think would be playing on arsimon needs mind? This
is and can this actually beloved reality? By the way, yeah,
it could. You never know.
Speaker 3 (45:29):
I mean, you know again you just have to look
back into history. There are what there've been for military
dictators before that, and there are basically four distinct parts
of what happened, and this possibly gives you an idea
of what could happen with the fifth. Right, This is
the first one is are you? Are you the rules?
(45:49):
For about ten years, he's thrown out of power because
he launches his war against India and sixty five there's
economic collapse, there's widespread discontent, people come out in the
streets and he's forced out literally and he as he leaves.
He annoyance Yaya his protegy. He rules for another two
(46:11):
years and eight months. And there is a Pakistan before Yahya,
and there's a Pakistan after Yaya. It's like half of Pakistan.
So he's booted out and he spends his last days
in house arrest, literally dies a broken man. Then you
have Ziyah again, takes over and eleven years and a
(46:31):
creative exploding mangoes and that aircraft goes up in still
not solved, and nobody is in Pakistan seems to be
very interested in solving it either. Yeah, it's like these
things happen all the time. And Uh Musharraf he's forced out,
he's humiliated, he's uh declared a criminal, and he's accused of,
(46:52):
you know, assassinating Benezi buto all of that, and he
dies in exile in Dubai, you know, and he's like
shrunk and you see those last pictures of him. These
are the four roots before every Pakistan military dictator. Why
does Muni believe that his route is going to be
any different from these four previous routes that have been taken.
(47:14):
And there are no happy dictators in Pakistan right, There
are no happy dictators. There are no retired dictators. They're
all either dead, disgraced, diseased and dead. There's no you know,
happy ending. There's no way this ends happily for any dictator.
And Muni possibly is it's like that one of those
(47:35):
sci fi tropes where this guy goes back into time
and tries to change the thing. But every time he
you know, destiny and that clock brings him to a
certain through various routes, it always comes down to that
thing where he fails. And that seems to be the
case with Muni as well. I don't believe he's going
to have a very bright this thing. But for reasons
(47:56):
that you mentioned, there are so many there's so much
of discus within the park, military, within civilians who believe
that you know, the fact that he's torturing Imran Khan,
you know, all all of these things. All of this
is going to add up, and it's a tinder box
and Pakistan has always been a tinder box, and sooner
or later it's going to explode. Yeah, it could happen
(48:19):
this year, it could happen the next year. But Munir
is essentially he's living on borrowed time.
Speaker 2 (48:25):
Yeah, he's living on borrow time, and that's probably the
fate of Munir. What about the fate of the person
we talked of on this episode, Imran Khan. What do
you think is going to happen there? What actual options
do you think Munir has on his hands? Because also
I think he would not want to run the risk
of martyring Imran Khan as well, right, because that would
actually create a.
Speaker 1 (48:45):
Bigger sort of a problem for him.
Speaker 2 (48:48):
So one if him being the field Marshal, if him
being at the helm of the Pakistani military is just
so easy for him to deal with Imran Khan, Why
as hasn't he sort of sort of done that so far?
And what probably is he scheming of?
Speaker 3 (49:05):
You know, a good question, and I think Muni doesn't
know the answer to this one question. Is Imran Khan
alive a bigger threat to him? Or is it dead?
Imran Khan a bigger threat to a very good point.
He has not found the answer to that. And I
believe that what they've been doing in the last couple
(49:25):
of weeks, the park military is putting out those trial balloons. Okay,
let's put him into isolation and you know, float those
rumors of his death and see how the world reacts.
So you know what you do is it's a probing attack.
That's because these are military chaps. They launch a probe
to see the reaction. So they've launched a probe and
(49:47):
they've kind of figured okay, the family came out. Iran's
four sisters incredible ladies they you know, at this age,
and they're all a than Imran Khan. He's the youngest
of five kids, right, All four sisters have come out
in defense, and you know every brother would want sisters
(50:09):
like this, so fighting, you know, tooth and nail for him.
So the family has come out. His sons, you know
in the UK, have been trying to rally support. People
have of course come out. We can handle that. But
I think what they've noticed is that the Western media
is by and large very ambivalent about this. The Western
(50:33):
leaders aren't talking too much about that. So now they've
got a fair idea. If actually something happens to him,
then you know, we know how things are going to
react and maybe we can control it. So I think
they are in that mode trying, you know, what do
we do with Imran? So I mean with Imran, I
think there are about three scenarios that could play out
(50:54):
in twenty twenty six, assuming nothing happens in the next
few days in December, in twenty twenty six, three things
will happen. A. The military will continue its repression of Imran,
his family, the PTI. They want to get the you know,
de recognize the PTI as a political party. And that's why.
Speaker 6 (51:12):
The the the anti national the national security and the
treason things have been invoked that you can disqualify a
party based on these very grievous charges.
Speaker 3 (51:25):
They want to do that. That that will continue. So
chances are this will continue about there's a more than
fifty percent chance of this continuing. There is a second
possibility that there could be some kind of a compromise
that well, you know, some third country enters and says, look,
give him a safe passage to buy London, Dubai London.
(51:46):
There's that palace in Saudi Arabia that Nava Sharif once
lived in for several years. And you know why, you
know why, it is just wait out this regime, come
back and fight. Imran is relatively young, he's what seventy
two years. He's got a long political career. You know,
Muni as the one who has to worry about retirement.
(52:06):
Imran is eternal as a politician, and that could be
option number two. And the third is that there could
be a violent overthrow of the military of the existing
Sharif regime, the Shabaz Sharif regime. They could be public protests,
they could be break down anarchy, all of that. So
(52:27):
I think given these three scenarios, and of course a
fourth scenario is the black Swan event, which could be
the death of one of these principal characters, in which
case then everything kind of changes. If something happens to Irankan,
if something happens to one of the other politicians or
even the army chief, then I think the whole the
game gets reset. Right. But as of now, it appears
(52:50):
that these are the three probable trajectories that you'll see
in twenty twenty six, and I think base stone what
we've seen in the last couple of months, military will
continue its repression of Ran Khan and Is and he's
unlikely to bend or break because if he bends, if
he breaks, then people will say, hey, listen, we fought
(53:11):
with you and you just gave up, you know, So
he's now got his reputation, and you know this thing
of the Pashtuns Wau and you know the Pashtoon Kizaba
and Patan Kizaba and all of those tropes he has
to play to. And the other one, of course, is
that the compromise seems unlikely. Yeah, overthrow, it's rarely happened
(53:32):
in Pakistan. It's happened once with once or twice, I
think once with a You for sure that they forced
him out into exile. But it seems difficult to imagine
that in present things, when Muni is so powerful, he's
consolidated all power into the ease. Like you said, the
most powerful military ruler in Pakistan today never had a
(53:55):
leader as powerful as this. Everything he is, you know,
Field Marshal General, Admiral, Air Chief Marshal A Ladin, you know,
like Sasha, he's everything. So he is the most powerful thing.
And you know, so I would think that what we
(54:15):
will see in twenty twenty six is an extension of
what we saw in twenty twenty five, unless, of course,
there is the Black Swan, Yeah, the Black Swan event. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (54:24):
And I get your point about and overthrow being unlikely,
because I think for that you also need a covert
sort of support and backing and involvement of foreign agencies,
whether they are intelligence agencies, whether there's so called think tanks,
stuff like that, and that, like you said, isn't really
happening right now, at least when as far as the
(54:44):
best is concerned.
Speaker 1 (54:45):
So yeah, that overthrow is does seem unlikely.
Speaker 2 (54:50):
But what happens next is what is something that we
will know only in a few in a few weeks,
So we'll keep an eye out and we'll talk more
on this once we have some more to go off.
By that's it, I think we'll end the episode there.
Thanks a lot, fantastic chat, and I think I the
summary and the headline point of this chat is what
(55:11):
you said at.
Speaker 1 (55:12):
The very end.
Speaker 2 (55:13):
It's not because it's something I never even thought of
that you know, Parsimoni hasn't realized, hasn't figured out Imran Khan.
Is he a bigger threat if he's alive or if
he's dead. And that's actually a very very solid state
poart to me.
Speaker 1 (55:26):
So thanks on the fantastic chat.
Speaker 3 (55:27):
As always, thanks for having me there.
Speaker 2 (55:29):
And thanks as always to our listeners of viewers. That's
it for the Sweet Defense does for more, Tune in
next week. Till then, stay safe, not toss any boundaries
without a passport.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Betrayal: Weekly
Betrayal Weekly is back for a brand new season. Every Thursday, Betrayal Weekly shares first-hand accounts of broken trust, shocking deceptions, and the trail of destruction they leave behind. Hosted by Andrea Gunning, this weekly ongoing series digs into real-life stories of betrayal and the aftermath. From stories of double lives to dark discoveries, these are cautionary tales and accounts of resilience against all odds. From the producers of the critically acclaimed Betrayal series, Betrayal Weekly drops new episodes every Thursday. Please join our Substack for additional exclusive content, curated book recommendations and community discussions. Sign up FREE by clicking this link Beyond Betrayal Substack. Join our community dedicated to truth, resilience and healing. Your voice matters! Be a part of our Betrayal journey on Substack. And make sure to check out Seasons 1-4 of Betrayal, along with Betrayal Weekly Season 1.