A Post-GOP Primary Debate Twitter Discussion: With Guest Mike Madrid

This episode is a recording of a Twitter Space after the first GOP primary debate; We're joined by Mike Madrid and our Twitter followers to unpack the debate and discuss the big differences between Republicanism and Nationalism.

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/is-it-just-me-or-have-we-all-lost-our-minds--5869817/support.

Episode Transcript

(00:02):
Is it just me? Or havewe all lost our minds? It's a
question I've been asking myself on repeatfor the last eight years, and I
know I'm not alone in that.Is it the politics, is it the
culture? Or am I just gettingold? Hi? I'm Jennifer Horne and
I'm a former Republican strategist and partyleader turned independent sanity activist. I decided

(00:25):
to do this podcast so we couldexplore these questions. I'll bring experts to
the table from politics and media andculture. We'll have raw, insightful conversations
with the clear goal of getting tothe bottom of it all. One way
or another. We've all lost ourminds, and I hope you'll join us
on the journey to find them again. Hi, this is Jennifer Horne and

(00:48):
you're listening to Is it just me? Or have we all lost our minds?
It is the day after the firstGOP presidential primary debate that took place
in Wisconsin, and as I sithere recording this, we're waiting to see
former President Donald Trump turned himself inin the Great State of Georgia to face

(01:10):
charges for the fourth time. Nowdown there. Last night, immediately after
the debate at about eleven o'clock EasternTime, we had a Twitter spaces with
Mike Madrid, who you have heardhere in previous episodes of this podcast.
Mike is a very smart guy whenit comes to politics and political trends,

(01:32):
and there's nobody I know out therewho is a better data analyst than Mike
Madrid is. So we thought itwould be interesting to invite our followers on
Twitter to join us for a Twitterspaces to sort of unpack the debate immediately
after it was finished. That's whatwe did, and we've downloaded it here
so that we can also share itwith all of you. I think it's

(01:55):
interesting and engaging, and I hopethat you not only enjoy it, but
that you get something really valuable outof it as well. Thank you for
tuning into Is it just me?Or have we all lost our minds?
And now here is the recording ofour Twitter spaces again immediately following the first
GOP presidential primary debate. But I'mvery excited that you're all with us,

(02:20):
and this has been a big night. It's been really interesting. I will
tell you right out of the gate, I had some surprises on the stage
tonight. Not so much the ideathat any one of them has said or
done anything that could put them ina position to win. But it didn't
really pan out exactly the way thatI thought I thought it would. I
think there were some strong romans forsome people that I didn't expect, and

(02:43):
you know, probably the ones thatwere the weakest, I would say,
are the ones that we all sortof anticipated would be the weakest. But
we'll get into all of that soon. Over three hundred and twenty thousand people
have hit the like button on TuckerCarlson's interview with Donald Truyn that was posted
on Twitter during the debate. Somewhereon Twitter, I saw a report that

(03:06):
seventy five million people had watched it. I had no idea how anyone could
possibly know that. I don't knowhow those analytics are kept or where they're
seeing, so I don't report thatwith any sort of faith in its accuracy.
But the best part of our conversationtonight is going to be the fact
that we've got Mike Madrid with usjoining us again. Mike, I'm sure

(03:30):
you are aware that you have becomejust about the favorite co host on these
spaces that we have with all thefolks that tune in for us, and
I'm grateful that you're with us,and I can't wait to hear what you
have to say about everything that wesaw tonight as well. So let's start
by kind of handing it over toyou, Mike. I'm going to start

(03:51):
by I'll ask you a simple questionand then I'll let you sort of run
with it from there. Did anythinghappen tonight, Mike that you saw or
that you heard that you think willin any way change any of the numbers?
Not just somebody catching up with Trump? We all know that, but

(04:11):
will any Do you think that theorder in which these folks are showing up
in the polls will change at allas a result of what we saw tonight?
First of all, said thanks forhaving me, and I love the
community you're building, and I knowthat there's probably a lot of familiar faces
in our audience from the last cyclewhere we would talk about these things.
And I'm hoping that we're kind ofputting the band back together because I think

(04:31):
that our voices gave a lot ofpeople some help and hope, and the
goal, I think is to kindof reconstruct that for this next year or
so let's keep doing that show,and let me jump in really quick before
you wrote that one hundred percent,Mike. You know, the one thing
that I do think I keep tellingeverybody we can't look at this is not
a repeat of anything. It's notthe same as twenty twenty. It's not

(04:55):
the same as twenty sixteen. Wehave to understand that this is a different
game, different a completely different operation. But I do think one of the
things that is the same is thatpeople are scared. They are they are
nervous, that feels chaotic. They'reconcerned for the future of our country and
our children. And I think thatthe most important thing that we need to

(05:15):
do if we're going to put fortha cohesive, coordinated, successful effort to
defeat Trump and Trumpism, is wehave to stay cool, got to keep
it together, and we've got tofocus on what you do the best,
the facts, the data, andand you know and and work stand together
and work together. So you runwith it. Tell me, you know

(05:39):
what, what did you say?Okay? So, so there's there's a
million different platforms and channels right now, folks that are all you know,
all the punditry of Nicky Hilly dida great job, and Vivek was a
clown, and Pence was better thanexpected. And look, all of that
may or may not be true.We'll explore some of that. I want
to hear some of your questions andthoughts. But what I've always promised you,

(06:00):
what I've always given you, ishow to approach this as a professional
in terms of what I would bedoing for each campaign and what the foundation,
the fundamentals, and the dad aren'ttelling each campaign to do. So.
I actually was one of those manyhundreds of thousands of people or whatever
it was, that was watching DonaldTrump as this began, and I'm going

(06:23):
to tell you why there's nothing thathappens tonight on the debate stage, nothing
that could or did change the fundamentaldirection of this race. I'm far more
interested in what the roadmap is forTrump going into a very very precarious situation
tomorrow that will change the calculus ofthe way he messages, and I wanted

(06:45):
to see what that was. Itwas far far more important to me about
what's going to be happening than anythingthat happens tonight. Now, I did
watch the latter part of it becausethere was time to watch it afterwards,
and it's fun, and I don'twant to bring it, you know,
everybody's sugar high down because a lotof people are not listening. Tend to
be people that really love this kindof stuff and we like the give and

(07:06):
take and we like those exchanges.And yeah, sure it wasn't fun.
Absolutely it's fun, and it's niceto have a little bit of levity and
kind of watch what people are sayingon Twitter. But the truth of the
matter is they're nothing changed, folks, nothing changed. Will there be some
pops in the polls, yes.Will there be some over analyzing, yes.

(07:30):
Will these numbers settle back into theexact same range that they were in
about a week's time. Yes.And as I tweet and as I tweeted
out, no one is going toremember ninety nine percent of this tomorrow when
the mug shot is released. Thisto tonight is going to be old memories
and all of those things will befading. So I got a lot of

(07:53):
direct messages from you guys and textfrom you guys and people saying Vbac is
going to be the next Maga La. He's positioning to be the Max Trump.
Nicki Haley's scored bigger than everyone thingsshe did. Christie's doing great.
Pants came out of nowhere. Thatsure, however you want to feel about
Kat, to look at it andfeel good about that, you can do
that. But nothing fundamentally changed inthis race at this point, and we

(08:20):
are going to see a round ofpulling that will show some movement, and
anybody that follows me knows that.I will say, at this stage of
the race, be looking for movements, but the movement is going to be
in the two to five point range. If you see somebody pop up fifteen
points, we'll have that discussion.We'll jump out to an emergency spaces and

(08:41):
we'll go over what those numbers arelooking like. There's gonna be some bouncing
around. You may see Christie moveup three or four points in New Hampshire.
He's already moving up a little bit. You may see the VEC pop
up five or six points because nowhe's on the radar of some of the
margat crowd. Haley I don't thinkgets any traction. Why she was the
adult in the room and she leanedinto the gender message at a time when

(09:05):
Republican women are not really responsive tothat. There's no laying, there's no
lean into where she was going into. That's something that kind of left with
probably Elizabeth Dole's campaign back whenever thatwas okay, Tim Scott was just taking
a lot of the gas out ofthis campaign because the messages of the old

(09:26):
Reaganism are being filled by Mike Pence. It was forceful by the way.
Pence was really forceful in a waythat Mike Pence usually isn't. I think
vivec animated him a little bit.A lot of people thought vvec came off
really strong. I thought he lookedreally really irascible. But again, I'm
not reflective of the MAGA based andI'm very aware of that. I think

(09:48):
with the Republican Mike clinics here realquick, you called Vic a clown at
the beginning. That's how he cameacross to me. I thought he was
arrogant in a journ Yeah, andand and like but like I said,
I do want to put all ofthis into perspective, right, We're we're
we're we're picking these little at thesefun character traits on the overall trajectory of

(10:13):
the race, which is what peopleare very focused and very seriously you know,
concerned and scared and worried and nervousabout nothing really changed. Now I'm
gonna say something I'm probably a littlebit controversial here. I thought Trump did
remarkably well. For Donald Trump's andand and his messaging posts post indictment,

(10:35):
post booking is going to be alot of what you've heard. Very similarly,
it's going to be the they're coming, They're really coming after you.
I'm just standing in their way,right being that champion that's going to have
a particularly strong residence after tomorrow.And so whatever whatever sugar high any candidate
is experiencing tonight, it's not gonnalast more than twelve hours. It will

(10:56):
be gone by noon tomorrow. SoI can't figure out when you talk about
sugar high, if you're talking aboutall of us being excited at the debate,
or if you're criticizing me through thenumber of oreos I just date over
the last two hours. That's caloriesdon't count, doesn't count. I need

(11:16):
them to get through. I needthem to get through the craziness. So
so Mike, I will have tosay I think that I think you're right
on target. I never disagree withyou. I've learned my lesson about that
A long time ago. But Ido beyond the numbers, beyond you know,
how this willer rope move and thenumbers popping and stuff like that.

(11:37):
I think you're completely correct that assoon as Trump, as soon as the
camera's turn on in front of theFulton County Courthouse, this is over.
It's like the debate stories over.It's passed. And one of the things
that I've been saying for the lastcouple of days in the interviews that I've
been doing is that it just doesn'treally matter what happens tonight, every question

(11:58):
that's asked, every answers that's given, Like Trump owns owned this debate tonight,
it doesn't matter that they didn't sayhis name and all their answers.
It was the whole debate was aboutcan you get anywhere near Trump? Who's
going to be in second place,who's going to be in third place?
But I'm trying to kind of thinkof all the things you just said.

(12:20):
Pence's is the one who sort ofgave me a little bit of a surprise.
He was more aggressive and more prepared, you know, with better answers
I guess than I expected him tobe. But as beat, I mean,
he's nowhere, the polls are ready, and as soon as he has
to become a witness on you know, on camera at a Trump trial next

(12:43):
spring's any anything he has is allover at that point. I agree with
him just going through them all.I agree with you about Nikki Heley and
Tim Scott. They were both kindof trying to be the adults of the
room and talk about you know,actual old school Republican policy. Nobody wants
that. Nobody wants to hear thatthe scientists didn't wasn't as powerful as I
expected him to be. I feltlike he came across as he was trying

(13:07):
to be powerful and just didn't doit. But other than that, don't
you think like everybody sort of justfell into their lanes. They just fell
into righte where you expected them tobe. Well, the problem, they
fell into where I expected them tobe, but they don't. There aren't
any lanes. Yeah, and remember, there's a reason why they're not attacking
Trumps right There's there's one of there'sone of two reasons that you're running right

(13:28):
now. The first is you're genuinelyanti Trump, which is Chris Christie really
and Asa Hutchins and essentially you've gotme, You've got Mike Pence reluctantly asked.
A lot of reporters were calling inthe last twenty four hours. You're
getting their debate stories ready and youknow, kind of looking for some stuff
up background. What is Pence tryingto do? I think Mike pets is

(13:52):
running a legacy campaign, knowing thatif he didn't run to clear his name.
Yeah, he would go down ignominiouslyas complicit with the you know,
the worst most criminal presidency in historyof the country. That's what I'm coming
Why Mike Kets run. He's runningto correct the record essentially in his mind,

(14:13):
well or not to correct in hismind, but he's you know,
he's trying to change and paper overhim and what a lot of people did
during the Trump era one of theseenablers. Yeah, and Christie, you
know, Mike Cruise's article in PoliticoI thought was extraordinarily well done. You
know, Chris Christie, And Ilook, I know Christy fan. A
lot of people love him, andI think his jersey is give me the
street guy that's gonna beat up DonaldTrump. Christie's attacks on Trump are helping

(14:39):
Trump. Chris Christie does not havea lane. Chris Christie does not have
a chance not only of winning thisprimary, but of hurting Donald Trump.
Chris Christie is running to be relevantby being a pundit and a paid you
know, talking a head on oneof the cable shows after this is all
done. That's what Christie is tryingto do. There's no there's no there's

(15:01):
no lane there. That's interesting,Yeah, I I but really, you
and I keep talking about lanes.It's it's a phrase that you know,
political people use, you know,this lane, that lane. There's only
in my opinion, there is onlya Trump lane. These other people are
just like you know, taking aSunday walk down the sidewalk, like there's
no other lane there too. It'sit is so it is so overwhelmingly clear

(15:26):
who and what the Republican Party wants. And it's got nothing to do with
who's best qualified to be president oryou know, who's embracing some aspirational vision
for the future of our country.It's got nothing to do with any of
that. And and it's it's justTrump for them. So I do wonder
did anything happen tonight that that youthink will change. This is kind of

(15:52):
a maybe a redundant question. Butin my mind, it's actually different.
That will change the way non Republicanprimary voters see to Republican party. It
will further see men's preconceived notions aboutRepublican extremism into more solidified voter you know,

(16:15):
behavior, which is good for JoeBiden re election. As I've been
saying all along, the fundamentals fora Joe Biden re election are very very
strong. They're the strongest there isthe strongest for an incumbent, I would
suggest since nineteen ninety six. Okay, can Joe Biden lose? Yes?
Is it likely? No? Somepeople will say, but Mike Donald Trump

(16:38):
is already beating Joe Biden in morepolls this year than he has in all
of twenty twenty. Great, yeah, you know that's meaning that data is
meaningless right now, as our jobapproval ratings. There's also this really strong
and this is just a habit thatpolitical people have had, in reporters have
had for the three decades I've beendoing this. The economy, there's this

(17:00):
over emphasis on the economy. Theeconomy is not anywhere near the top indicator
for the raper segments that matter.And this really if they did. Why
did the Democrats do so well inthe middle right when seventy five percent of
Americans didn't believe that the economy isin a good play? And did you

(17:25):
see those numbers out of the mostrecent Iowa pole that just came out like
a last day or two. No, no, there's not a no Republican
voters give a shit. Excuse me, nobody. They don't care about the
economy. There's there's no job thatTheir top three concerns in an eye pole
it just came out in the lastforty eight hours was the border, fighting

(17:47):
against woke policies, and banning genderaffirming care. Those were the top three
concerns of Iowa Republicans. And thishall, I don't know if you've remember
where or if a kind of youknow, economics or jobs or whatever came
up, you know, showed upin the poll. And what I find
extraordinary about that? And I guessI'm still hopelessly stuck in this idea of

(18:11):
what I think of as the oldRepublican party there. I mean, can
you remember before now at time whenjobs of the economy was not the top
issue in a Republican primary? Thisis crazy, well it is crazy until
you realize that that party doesn't existanymore. Okay, the grieving process and

(18:32):
just let it go. And thenyou have to, you know, say,
okay, is it crazy. Itmay be crazy, but we better
get sober about what all of thismeans because we can't lose to this this
social phenomenon. Well, we're allin a lot of danger. You're telling
me to cry it at and moveOn't be done. I mean we all
go through it, and it takesall of us longer stages than others.

(18:55):
But those those days are they're gone. Make Silver did a big data dive
on matching Reagan's comparisons to the RepublicanParty with Trump's, and Trump better matches
the Republican Party. It's truly Trump'sparty. This is a nationalist party now.
It's not a classically conservative party.We've been saying it because people like

(19:18):
you and I believe that then webelieve it now and that's why we don't
really have a party. But bringit back to the politics. This also
does concern me a little bit becauseBiden released a bunch of ads last week.
It's all focused on the economy.Yeah, which there's I think there's
I think it's a weird internal worryin the Democratic Party. You know that

(19:42):
there's this constant refraining things are sogreat, the economy is so great,
things are going so well. Itreminds me of George Herbert Walker Bush in
nineteen ninety two going into that campaignsaying all the data says everything's great.
Why don't you feel great? Andthe danger of that is if you have
a politician that is a little bitmore lists, like a Bill Clinton,
that can walk in, that feelsyour pain, and that can talk about

(20:03):
your pain, you are extremely susceptibleto being out of touch. And Biden
is susceptible to that. Now Ithink they will. I do think that
they will correct it. And thereason why I think they'll correct it is
the Republicans are helping them. TheRepublicans are setting the frame of having higher
negatives than the Democrats and Joe Biden. And that's the most important data points

(20:29):
to be looking at. Is theparty in the last three election cycles that
has lost or at least underperformed,in the case of Republicans in the midterms,
has been the party that has goneinto the last few weeks of the
election with higher negatives. People arevoting against things, this negative partnership.
I know there's a lot of peoplewho kind of listen to my podcasts,

(20:52):
listen to the show now that probablyget tired of me saying it. That's
what drives voter behavior, that negativeand voting against something is far more important
than voting for something. So that'swhy Biden was so successful with you know,
he got got pilloried for doing thatpress conference outside of Independence Hall in

(21:12):
Philadelphia. I thought it was genius. I thought it was brilliant. I
said so, and then then hewent back and did it again and the
base was freaking out, what areyou doing talking about the economy, talking
on whatever? And he started usingthe termaga Republicans. I'm like, these
guys get it. Yeah, ifdata guys get at the polling guys get
it. And that's exactly what happened, is they tightened this gap up.

(21:33):
They brought that vote home at moreimportantly in an electorate that was older,
wider, and more Republican than itwas in the general election. No surprise,
Democrats overperformed expectations because there are stillenough. There's not a lot,
but there are still enough of whatwe used to call Lincoln Project Republicans four
years ago, and these these soccermoms that we called back in ninety two,

(21:56):
college educated Republican women that will moveoff of the Republican Party if they
view that they are too extreme nownow they will also go back and vote
for Republicans, as Glenn youngcan foundout in Virginia in those off terms.
If you can put you know,Terry mccaulluff is the most extreme compared to
a yunkin they'll vote Republican too.And that's my concern with the Biden folks

(22:21):
early is they're running these ads thatare just not speaking to a core constituency
anywhere right now. It's just notthe right message. That's not bad by
the way, I'm not saying yeahyeah of them right now. They close
the gap. They're probably trying todo some some containment, some some voter
IDs, some bolstering their own baseright now with what they've got of it.

(22:44):
But they will come in harder witha strong negative and they will put
them, i think, in avery strong position heading into the elections.
And again Trump Trump is going tobe giving the Republicans a lot of ammunition.
As I mentioned yesterday, a lotof the narrative of this campaign is
going to shift dramatically tomorrow, andall of the oxygen that may have sort

(23:06):
of kind of quasi field the roomtonight with this debate and all the spin
that's going to be going on,a lot of you guys are probably watching
this on your phones and watching cableTV and listening to everybody's spin, and
everybody's claiming victory and saying everybody elsewas terrible and their person was the best.
There may be a short shuffling twoto five points in the polls over
the next week, but all ofthe oxygen has gone Tomorrow. It's gone,

(23:30):
as once that mug shot comes out, there will be no other discussion
about any of this. So unlessyou're pulling directly into this environment, which
is not going to be indicative ofanything, you're not getting a read on
where public opinion is moving. Okay, first of all, it's too late,
so polsters aren't going to be doingit. No one's going to be
doing any rolling averages into this environment. And if they did, if you

(23:55):
pulled into tomorrow, Republicans are goingto absolutely come back home and start rolling
the flag again, rallying around theTrump flag. So look fun night.
It's always good to kind of,you know, talk about who's doing great
or who's doing a good punch andoh they you know, said that little

(24:17):
sound bite and worked great. Imean, that's the fun of it.
You gotta have some fun with politics. But moving not only the trajectory of
the race. It's not having afundamental change and who's in second place or
who's in third place. Nobody's campaignfell apart tonight. Nobody's was resuscitated tonight.
There was no reshuffling of the deck. And how the Republican primary is

(24:37):
coming out, Let's be mindful ofthe fact that they are all still forty
points behind the front runner. Oneof the reasons why he's a front runner
is because he is under attack.That's not a weak point. That is
literally the whole point of why Republicansare rallying around him. And so the
deeper his troubles get, the moreentrenched and the stronger his numbers are going

(24:59):
to get. His they move up. Now, let me talk about that
movement of numbers up, because thatis not a realignment back to Trump.
Those those voters have never really movedoff of him. The true anti Trump
laying in the Republican Party is atmost fifteen points at most, even though
public polling is showing him at likefifty percent, fifty two percent. Let's

(25:22):
remember six months ago it was atthirty seven, thirty eight, forty two.
The Sands would kind of really periodicallypop up into the low forties range.
His distances is a average, bythe way, It really never broke
out of a mid low twenty two, twenty three percent, low twenties range,
which I thought, which I wassaying was even high. And that's

(25:45):
that's what's playing out right now.But Mike, let's let's start to sort
of shift the conversation just a littlebit now as you're hitting forward on all
of this. You know, Ithink I think it was a great,
a great warning for you to leteverybody know expect the numbers to pop a
little bit here and there for everybodyelse. But it's not really the next

(26:06):
poll that we should take seriously,but maybe the one after that, after
you know, the interest in thedebate has sort of settled out a little
bit, and that sort of thingI told I'm with you one hundred percent.
I think we all understand the ideathat this just doesn't change anything as
far as the actual dynamic of thisprimary goes, it's we're still in a
position where Trump's gonna be the guyin fact, and so like I would

(26:29):
like to move a little bit intokind of picking apart the ethics and the
character of what we really see comingout of this debate and how I think
it is manifesting the ethics and thecharacter of the whole party at this point.
Well, remember when they ask andmaybe he weren't tuned in, they
asked the question about if Trump isnot just if he's charged. I think

(26:52):
the question was if Trump is convictedor if Trump is on trial? It
was it was like a step beyondjust being our arraigned. Would Julie,
you know, raise your hand ifyou'd still support him as a nominee?
And everyone except Asa Hutchinson and ChrisChristy raise their hand, every single one
of them, like if he ifhe's convicted of something, would you still

(27:14):
support him? All their hands wentup. That goes beyond to me,
And folks can look for us onCenter clip. Mike and I both have
podcasts and I know that laved youlisten to on them. There's also this
app called Center Clip Go look formy most recent posts there. To me,
that is a reflection of what's happenedwith the entire party at this point,

(27:36):
that the Republican Party is no longerabout anything, not just anything you
and I used to think it was, but it's not about anything that has
to do with democracy or constitution.It really has become about Trumpism. It's
not just about Trumpet's about Trumpism.And the argument I make is that when

(27:57):
Trump is dead and gone and arestill in we're fifteen or twenty years down
the road, they're still going tobe the Party of Trump. And I
feel like a lot of what wesaw on the stage tonight confirms that.
And I'm just gonna give that toyou. Well yeah, and again,
the way I look at that,I think you're absolutely right is to try

(28:18):
to transfer that into voting behavior.And when I look at the map,
it's like, it's like, Okay, if they're willing to you know,
die for this guy literally with youknow, COVID, uh, you know,
and then deny that that's happening,if they're willing to lie about elections
despite all the evidence in their face, and if they're also willing to say
we'll put up this, you know, guy who's convicted of of of of

(28:40):
trying to overthrow the government. Wehave to start looking at it differently.
We're not in a persuasion environment.You're not going to convince anybody on any
policy issues about whether or not Trumpis a good guy or a bad guy.
That's not going to carry the day. So what I spent the last

(29:00):
eight years looking at is what arethe small voters segments in the Republican base
and with conservative leaning independence that wecan get to stay off of Trump,
to stay away from the Republican Partyuntil demographically the country changes enough for the
Republican Party simply implodes under its ownweight. And I do believe I did

(29:22):
not believe this in sixteen. Ididn't believe it in eighteen or twenty or
twenty two, but I'd believe itin twenty twenty four. If Donald Trump
loses, the Republican Party will splinter, it will it will class because the
reality of all of the financing andall of the money will be undeniable and
there will be no mathematical, numericway to win the races anymore. And

(29:48):
that's going to create a whole differentrange of splinter groups to peel Off.
Do I do think it's going tobecome so thing that ultimately grows into multiple
new parties or are you just talkingabout you know, you know, we'll
have the Trump Republicans and the DeciantistRepublicans and the Hailey like into groups,

(30:10):
a whole bunch of some groups withinthe Republican Party fighting against each other.
Oh no, it will be morethan factions. They will be literally different
parties. Yeah, they won't benecessarily ideological. They'll look more transactional the
way they look in most other countries. That doesn't that doesn't mean. Let
me make this really, really reallyclear, because I've been saying this for

(30:32):
twenty years. There is no centerin American politics. This notion that there's
a bunch of centrist Democrats and centristRepublicans that want to work together is a
bunch of nonsense. So you racethat out of your mind right now.
Because everybody thinks they are a centrist, they're not. Nine ninety percent of

(30:52):
people on both parties are sharp partisans. Okay, it doesn't mean you haven't
voted for Republican or vice versa withthe Democrat. But this idea that there
is somehow a center is a misguidednotion with almost no evidence backing that up.
So well, and I just wantto go down this, go ahead,
go ahead. Well, that's whynone of these movements work and have

(31:15):
it for the past work about thirtyyears. Is they're not speaking to anybody.
There's no constituency there. Well,and I don't want to go down
this No Labels you know path rightnow. But as I listen to you
talk about this, it does remindme a little bit of what's happening over
at No Labels, where we knowthat they are seeing numbers and we're seeing
numbers at a certain percentage of Americanssay that they are open to a unity

(31:40):
ticket. They think it could bea good idea, But as soon as
you put names on it and partiesnext to those names, it's a whole
different operation. Yeah, it's liketesting rainbows and unicorns. You know,
you want to believe a unicorn exists. I do, but but the reality
is it doesn't so good over right, right, they don't exist. There's

(32:00):
there's a lot of get over itcoming out of you tonight. I can
say I kind of feel like andI don't think this is a bad,
safe thing, but I kind offeel like you're kind of you're telling us,
Look, we got to embrace reality. We have to know what reality
is. We cannot defeat is whatis evil or what is wrong? If
we are living in a world wherewe want to believe in unicorns, likely
it's time for us to face realityhere and get serious about what we have

(32:23):
to do. Mike, I havemore questions for you, but we have
somebody in our audience, and usuallyEmily does this. I'm going to try
to bring this person up. Okay, Jacob a tr turn, Yeah,
can you hear me? Okay,yes, we can. Yeah. The
one thing I know you guys werejust we're talking about earlier, at least
when I hopped in how there doesn'tseem to be any like centrists there on

(32:46):
the debate, and there's there wasa moment that I saw where like Asa
Hutchinson had to like basically really likeemphasize listen, I am a conservative.
I've been involved in these politics whereit's like, even like someone like Hutchinson,
who was like who has like acredential, someone who's been in the
Republican politics for a while, isno longer considered conservative enough by probably most

(33:12):
of the people on the debay.I thought that was an interesting moment because
I think in that one sentence hesaid I like something along the lines of
I'm a conservative, like four timesin something. And I thought that was
just like a really interesting moment ifany of you guys caught it, because
like, I think that's just likevery I feel like pictures like the how
much the party has changed since hisdays of when he was like head of

(33:37):
the DA, when he was likean attorney, and when he started his
role in elected office. Yeah,Jacob, I did catch that actually,
and I and I heard that,and I thought it was really interesting and
to me, it just sort ofhighlighted the degree to which our definitions have
changed in Trump years. You know, there's this ship. There's always been

(34:00):
a dynamic and the Republican Party,especially in the primary where the race is
to the right. Who can convincethat the you know, the base,
that they are not just a trueconservative, but the most conservative conservative of
all the conservatives who have ever beenconservative ever. You know, that's always
kind of been the defining dynamic ofprimaries and the Republican Party. It's still

(34:22):
sort of there, but I don'tunderstand what a conservative is anymore. And
I think that's one of the thingsthat you know that outside of the of
the primary base, outside of theparty, when people look in at us,
I don't want to say us,I'm no longer a Republican. When
people look into the you know,into the party just trying to understand what

(34:43):
this whole Trump thing is all aboutand what it has done, conservative does
doesn't mean anything to me anymore.And Mike, I don't know if you're
a current or a former Republican.I keep losing track of which of us
have left and which of us arehave not. But talk to me,
just you know, talk to whatJA have just said, just a little
bit, you know, this ideaof it. They're still trying to say,

(35:04):
hey, I'm a real conservative,but no one in the audience believes
it because they think conservatism means Trump. Well, that's one of the things
I learned during the Trump era ismost people who called themselves conservative had no
idea what that meant. They thoughtit meant republicanism, right, But republicanism
and conservatism are not the same thing. I am still a classical Conservatives,

(35:30):
but that you know, the RepublicanParty was just a vessel for those ideas.
Once the Republican Party no longer servesthat, you know, it's a
nationalist party. They are very verydifferent, then you know that doesn't that
doesn't serve my needs. There area lot of people, the media included,
who I think we're starting to figureit out a little bit too late.
That conservative is not that the definitiondoesn't change. You can't just change

(35:53):
that the definition of words simply becauseyou want to conservative means it's republicanism.
Can change it. Change it everyyear that there's a change in the my
laws, change it, every timethere's a change in policy positions. Conservatism
does not change, at least inmy estimation. And so yeah, good

(36:13):
for ASA for pointing that out,But bad for ASA. It's not a
conservative party anymore. That's exactly.And you just made a great point.
Republicanism republican. You know, anypolitical party can redefine itself every election cycle.
They get together, they vote ona platform, they take stuff out,
they put stuff in. They youknow what at this point, the

(36:35):
voted on platform or the Republican Party, the language in it is so meaningless
because of the language essentially says ifTrump says it, we're for it.
That's really what the platform has becomeand no longer has any real definition.
So I think I think that's reallyinteresting, and I think it's something that
you know, to your point,the media maybe has been slow to catch
up on. They keep talking aboutconservatives and conservative conservative conservatism, but what

(37:02):
they're really talking about is just theextremists within everybody, or the extreme the
extreme nature of the curve Republican Party. Before we go to our next question,
I want to ask you to explainsomething else that you just said.
You have said a few times toNight that the Republican Party is a nationalist
party. Is that different than sayingit's a populist party. What do you
mean by that? Yeah, thoseare very different things, and they're both

(37:25):
inconsistent with being a conservative. Butlet me I will explain those from just
a second. But let me letme say this. If you have told
me Donald Trump did come out withthe last forty eight hours and said he
was going to raise tariffs globally byten percent, Night, that is the
largest tax increase in modern history.It is so if you told me that

(37:47):
the Republican nominee would be running ona platform of the largest tax increase in
modern history and was pro Russia andwas isolationist and protectionist. Would say,
you are crazy, because that isliterally the exact opposite of why I became
a Republican. It's literally the exactopposite of conservatism. And so those policy

(38:09):
positions define nationalism, the America Firstagenda. Nationalism is really an untethered I
shouldn't say it's untethered. The philosophicalview of the nationalist is taking a policy
position on anything that they perceive asbeing in the pure interests of their nation.
Of their nation and country are verydifferent things too. But that's why

(38:31):
when they say America First, let'sraise taxes on everybody else, Let's not
give anybody, let's not give anybodyany foreign aid, Let's create protectionist policies
for our industry. Let's put upborders and not allow anybody else in.
That's not conservatism. That's the oppositeof conservatism. That is nationalism. That

(38:52):
is nationalism, and populism is notideological at all. Populism is essentially running
against the establishment of the party,of the of the system within which you're
in. It's speaking to the it'sthe popular, not in the you know,
highest percentage of people liking it number, but in the widest breadth they're

(39:15):
very closely related breadth of support.So you can have populism on the left,
which you do. Bernie Sanders isa populist. Elizabeth Warren is a
populist. Let's go after the bigbanks, let's go after big oil,
Let's go after a big plastic.Anything big is something that is viewed as
bad. And on the right,it's run against big tech, big government,

(39:36):
big you know, whatever those that'spopulism. But it's also not.
There's no philosophical view of government undergirdingit is simply running against whatever is big
to try to get the popular massesbehind your agenda. It's it's a totally
manipulative philosophy, I guess is whatI was say from the perspective of the

(40:00):
of the act of the candidate,of the leader, to you know,
what you like, whatever you haveto say, whatever you have to do,
so that the masses of the popular, you know, the populist,
the population will be behind you.It's it's a it's a it's a path
for it's someone like Donald Trump toachieve power, somebody who doesn't have principle,
who doesn't have core ethics or corevision. They're just you know,

(40:23):
repeating back to the people what theywant to hear in order to gain the
power. Yeah, yeah, andI and I don't yeah, And I
don't think there are a lot ofTrump supporters who see that, I guess,
which is not a big surprise.So let's see there he is.
We can hear you, sir.Good to have you at everyone else.
I just wanted to make a commenton Nicky Haley because something you said maybe

(40:45):
Tenant CEO Jennifer kind of uh remindedme. You know, I thought she
had some some good moments, specificallyon the uh you create issue where she
was you know, going out herback. And one of the things that
has worried me most about a secondTrump presidency is the people that he's going
to put in his cabinet and juststaff the executive branch. And it worries

(41:09):
me, you know, people likeJuliani. While Nikki was talking, I
was thinking to myself, like,hey, if she was president, I
probably wouldn't have to worry about someof the crackpots, Like I don't think
she would put crackpots in this position. And then I thought to myself,
but hey, ten minutes before shewas one of the people who just raised

(41:31):
her hand, and I think sheraised her hand before Rod de Santas even
so, yeah, yeah, thatwas pretty demoralizing that I remember it,
like pulled up, she has nochance, and like everything she's saying is
sort of all cheapcock because she's not, like she doesn't have an integrity to

(41:51):
just stand on the moral issue ofTrump. And then the last thing that
I'll say, which is sort ofunrelated to this, is the people who
are watching the GOP debates, youknow, in twenty twenty three is not
the same people who were watching thesedebates back in twenty fifteen. I texted
my parents earlier today to ask ifthey were planning on watching this debate,

(42:14):
and they just said no. Andmy parents were former Republican voters in Georgia
who attended the Romney election night partyin Buckhead, and they're just like not
interested in any of this. Idoubt believe it be voting in the GOP
presidential primary in Georgia. They'll justpull the Democratic ballot. They don't want
anything to do with this vest andthey don't want to pay attention to it.

(42:37):
That's interesting because as you got talkingabout your parents, I thought you're
gonna say they're just gonna go inthere and vote for Trump and not even
give it a second thought. Likethat's where I thought you were hitted with
that. Right up until the end, I think I agree with you.
I think that you're right about thepeople watching this. I'm not the same
people that were watching debates in twentyfifteen, but I do think there is

(42:58):
still this subgroup of Republican voters whoare mostly older, who look at this
whole mess and they just think Trump'sthe Republican. I'm gonna vote for Trump
if he's the guy I'm gonna votefrom, because he's the Republican that we
haven't gotten past this very ingrained mentalitythat a lot of them, that most
Americans, I think still have alook and I vote for the Republican or

(43:21):
I vote for the Democrat. It'sjust the way it is. I can't
I can't vote for Biden. Henot be there. And they never follow
up with I can't vote for Biden. He ruined this, or he blew
up that, or he you know, started it's always he's a Democrat.
I can't vote pro Biden. He'sa Democrat and that worries me a lot
that were because that we still livein that. But also your point about

(43:43):
Nikki Healey, I agree with youone hundred percent. I thought she was
very strong when talking about Ukraine andthe way that she expanded that into you
know, the whole, you know, our relationships around the world, our
global relationships, because I thought onethat she showed a great deal of strength
in the way that she expressed itand knowledge, and she was right.

(44:05):
I also thought that she was verystrong when she talked about life, because
I think she answered it in away that speaks to people's hearts, and
that speaks to women's strength and independenceand the fact that there are a lot
of Republican women out there who feelvery differently about that issue than Ronda Santis,
for example, does. So Ithought she was good too, But

(44:29):
but I had the exact same conclusionthat you did. I got to the
end of the night and thought,if Trump's the guys, she's going to
vote for him. Like it shocksme that more people on that stage don't
see Trump as an existential threat tothe future of our country. And that's
what I think it comes down to. One more thing I wanted to say

(44:49):
is that like the the part likethe people were voting in GOP primaries now
are not the same people were votingback in twenty sixteen, Like it is
a the moderate sort of Normy wayis an ever shrinking group of people,
which makes sort of getting out ofthis predicament all the more difficult, which
is why Mike is probably correct aboutyou know, what happens if trumps again,

(45:15):
because there is I never say,I never say that Mike is probably
right anymore forward my lesson. SoI wouldn't let you finish what you have
to say, but don't let meforget Mike to jump over to you with
what this gentleman just said about who'svoting in Republican primaries. So I'm sorry,
country club Republican. You go aheadand finish. No, that's all

(45:37):
I had to said. I'd loveto hear any of Mike's thoughts on what
I said or what your response was. Great, great, thank you for
that. I think that was reallyinsightful contribution. Mikey just made a really
smart point that you and I havediscussed before, and that we've discussed in
twenty twenty, that the people votingin Republican primaries are not necessarily the same
folks who have been voting in thosein those primaries for you know, twenty

(46:00):
years before that. The makeup theactual demographics of Republican primary voters has changed,
you know, measurably under Trump,hasn't it. The ideology has,
the demography has not. Let meexplain what I mean by that. So
the Republican Party by percentages and stillit's the eighty five percent white party,

(46:24):
and it's becoming not more so,it's kind of peaked. And there are
more Latinos, handful of African Americansthat aren't moving into the Republican column.
But what has changed is like thisgentleman's parents, these kind of country club
Republicans who are saying, I can'tdo this anymore, largely for social and

(46:45):
cultural reasons. They probably still likeclassic economic tax policies. They're fiscally conservative,
they like tax cuts, they likeyou know, free markets, they
like to see the S and Pdoing well. They believe in kind of
you know, individual investments and kindof taking care of yourself and puing yourself
up by your bootstraps. But that'snot what the Republican Party is selling.

(47:06):
Anymore. The challenge is we're findingthat that segment of the vote is not
half of the voter base. Weused to think it was moderates versus conservatives,
and that would always be this tugof war, right, these are
the fights that you and I rememberfighting for twenty years of the party.
The truth of the matter is thequote unquote moderates, we're not that much

(47:27):
different. There's the big dividing onewas obviously social issues. But those voters
have essentially left, Like his parentshave said, that has not been a
mass exodus. It has been marginal, like ten percent, maybe a little
bit less. But the thing isthat is enough to pree bet for Republican
Party from winning. As long asthey don't go back and vote for Republicans

(47:52):
like they did in Virginia with youngkids, they will go They will go
back. We see that in OrangeCounty, California. We see it in
Manhattan where George Santos was elected inthat district where Republican beats a Democrat in
a you know, in a presidentialin a mid term year, like there

(48:14):
are enough of these moderate country clubRepublicans that will go back. They are
still the Republicans of old, they'renot Democrats. They will vote against the
Republican Party what it gets too extreme. But if they're given enough of the
right ques to vote for the Republicans, they will, and they do.
And that's that's that is both theblessing and the and the and the curse

(48:36):
of Donald Trump is as long ashe's on the ballot, he could inspire
a lot of new voters that don'tordinarily vote, especially rural, non college
educated white voters in places like Georgiaand the outskirts of rural Georgia, and
he'll get a lot more voters.That's why he overperformed in some of those
polls. But at the same time, he loses people like those suburban Republicans

(49:01):
like this gentleman's talking about in Guyette, the Calb County, the Caller counties
around Atlanta. These are not communitiesthat are comfortable with what he's doing on
dots, on bringing back and protectingConfederate soldiers, on raising the Confederate flag,
on even critical race theory or theanti tryan anti gay stuff. They're
not okay with it. And soas well, it depends on which party

(49:23):
is viewed as the most extreme inany given election cycle where these voters will
show up, and so what hejust said I think is extremely instructive on
how voter behavior works. They're notgoing to go in and vote in the
primary because they're all nuts anyway,and they're gonna show up. They're gonna
vote for Biden, but they're notreally Democrats, and they're not going to
come back. Sorry, go ahead, no, go ahead, go ahead.

(49:45):
Everything I wanted to get your opinionon is sort of how how ridiculous
and juvenile the immigration debate became.Like there was obviously no no serious talk
of anything, no integration reform,but then I believe a lottery here,
asked Chris Christie, you know whatshould happen to the to the seven million
undocumented immigrants who have come in inthe last eighty years or something along those

(50:07):
lines, and Christie said, like, we got to send them back home.
We'll send him back he said,yes, just like a throwaway one
liner that he said at the endof his response, and like Christie is
supposed to be sort of the Iguess, the more reasonable voice on that
stage, and it was sort ofjust shocking how how impractical and ridiculous the

(50:30):
immigration debate had become and I wouldthat that was his answer. Yeah,
you know, I'm going to jumpin on that real quick before Mike did,
because it caught my attention too.I was paying I was paying very
close attention. I'll admit to everythingChristie said tonight because he really is kind
of unique in his position in thiswhole race. Uh. And I felt

(50:50):
the same way that you did thatit was kind of a throwaway line.
And here's what I think is probablythe practical truth. It was a throwaway
line. He said it. It'swhat the Republican line is all the time.
It's what we heard, what theytalk about. And maybe he even
believes that that's what you should do. But the I was gonna say luxury,
it's not really the right word.But once you become president, you

(51:13):
do have the luxury of changing yourpositions and changing what you said in the
debate because suddenly you know a lotmore, you have access to more information,
You have that responsibility on your shoulder. And when I look at all
those candidate tees, the one thatI think probably would not try to follow
through on that, that doesn't excusehim. That doesn't make it good what
he did, because you know,we're also looking at him as being the

(51:36):
so called truth teller in this particularprimary. But I had the same impression
that you did that it just wasn'ta thoughtful response at all. But Mike,
how important is things like the youknow, a one or two line
answer to a question on an issuelike immigration. And we just said earlier
the Iowa the most recent IRAB polls. The polls showed that the border was

(51:59):
the number one issue of concern ofRepublicans in Iowa. For God's sake,
like, how important are these things? I'm gonna let people draw their own
conclusions. I'm just gonna put somebasic information out there, because what is
driving this is obvious and it's notpolicy. Okay, Immigration is Immigration is

(52:21):
a number one issue, not justin Iowa for Republican voters. It's the
number one issue nationally. Seventy fiveper cent of Republicans senters their top issue.
By the way, immigration legal andillegal has been declining for fifteen years.
Fifteen years it has been declining.Now, if we're shocked by what

(52:45):
Chris Christie said, which is apolicy position that would have been to the
right of any Republican up until twentysixteen, let me mention what Ron de
Santis said tonight, which is hewould bomb Mexico. Yes, it would
start a war with yes, noone, no one thinks that's the crazy
comment, like that's that's acceptable Republicanrunning. Yeah, it's just absolutely that's

(53:12):
that is. So that tells youif you can't take all three of those
data points and understand that this hasnothing to do with policy and immigration and
economics and everything to do with achanging America and we all know what that
means, yes, then then youknow just got to say, let's let's
be clear. No, no,no, go back, because I'm not

(53:34):
convinced we do all know what thatmeans. When we talk about a changing
America, we are talking about aRepublican Party that and and I become so
convinced of the truth of this,Mike, after all the conversations you and
I had had about numbers and policy. What Mike is talking about is that
the Republican Party is very much pushingpushing back against it America that is becoming
more diverse, that is becoming morebrown and more black and more whatever you

(53:58):
know, and not more not whiteevery day. And that's what this is
about. For so many of them, and that's who run Decantist is talking
to. And he says, onthe first day, I will bomb Mexico
where I will bomb the drug carchallenge or whatever it was. It gets
applauded for it. Yes, yeah, Now, now remember I worked for

(54:20):
George W. Bush on his campaignswhen it was about, you know,
preaching the universality of the American ideaand American values and everybody had a home
and a place, not open borderspolicy, but saying these are the actual
hard working, blue collar family valuespeople that really are reinvigorating the movements.

(54:40):
Right. That tells you these peopledon't care about reinvigorating the movement. They
just don't want non white people hereexactly. That's simple. There's no other
conclusion you can draw. There's somuch data, and trust me, I
have tried to find it because asa Republican Latino, you know who's an
expert with both the base and withLatino voters. I've tried to reckon solved
for thirty years. There's no reconcilingit anymore. If the data is overwhelming,

(55:06):
that's what's driving Republican base, Republicanvoter behavior, and it comes out
most clearly when they talk about immigration. Of course, of course yes,
but it isn't just immigration where wesee this reflected in their positions. So
it's critical race theory, right,it's great replacement theory. It's all yeah,
African American studies banning books. Imean, go through a whole long

(55:30):
list. Mike. It is midnightwhere I live, and you've got me
all riled up and my blood isboiling and I'm not gonna be able to
settle down and sleep now, MikeMadrid, everybody on the call already knows
who he is. I'm very veryhappy to have you with us tonight,
Mike making sent out of all ofthis, I'd like to invite everybody to

(55:52):
go and find my new podcast.It is called Is It Just Me?
Or Have we all Lost our minds? We are going to download this space
is from tonight and put it outon the podcast platform tomorrow so that more
folks can get it. But there'sa lot of smart stuff up all up
there already, including a conversation withMike on some of these issues that we

(56:14):
recorded a couple of weeks ago.So thank you everybody for tuning in.
As always, I'm grateful that thereare so many people who care about these
issues as much as we do.And as always, Mike, You're fantastic
and I really appreciate you being here. Thanks Jennifer, Having a good night
everybody. Everyone, take care,Good night,