April 16, 2024 • 37 mins
National Security expert and former Obama Deputy Assistant Secretary of State gives us an update on what is happening in Israel. How can an American President satisfy the factions within his party, keep promises to our allies, and be confident he is doing the "right" thing at the same time? Hear about President Biden's behind-the-sense efforts to coordinate a defense against Iran's attacks and what we're doing to both maintain our relationship with Israel and move somehow toward peace. These are frightening and complicated times - Joel Rubin brings insights and clarity to what is happening.
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Episode Transcript
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(00:02):
Is it just me? Or havewe all lost our minds? It's a
question I've been asking myself on repeatfor the last eight years, and I
know I'm not alone in that.Is it the politics, is it the
culture? Or am I just gettingold? Hi? I'm Jennifer Horn and
I'm a former Republican strategist and partyleader turned independent sanity activist. I decided
(00:24):
to do this podcast so we couldexplore these questions. I'll bring experts to
the table from politics and media andculture. We'll have raw, insightful conversations
with the clear goal of getting tothe bottom of it all. One way
or another. We've all lost ourminds, and I hope you'll join us
on the journey to find them again. Hi, you're listening to Is it
(00:46):
just me? Or have we allLost our minds? I'm your host,
Jennifer Horn. Very happy to haveyou back. We're going to spend some
time today talking about the updates comingout of Israel and Gaza and Nara Ran.
Unfortunately, who has decided to getinto the fray over there? What
does this mean? How is PresidentBiden handling all of this? And honestly,
(01:08):
you know, is there anything happeningthat would suggest that the United States
will become more or less involved thanwe already are. I'm really pleased to
have our next guest back with us. If you listen to my spaces,
you've heard him before. He's alsoa contributor over at centerclip dot com,
where you know I am on thepanel of contributors there five minute audio op
(01:30):
eds, and Joel, who isour guest today, is there as well,
and I highly recommend that you tunein a couple times a week over
there and see what he has tosay. Joel Rubin, national security expert,
democratic strategists, and former Obama administrationDeputy Assistant Secretary of State. Joel,
(01:51):
thank you so much for being withus today always, Jennifer, is
such an honor to be with youand with your audience. Thank you for
everything you can do for all ourdemocracy, quite frankly, and keeping hope
alive here in the United States.Well, I really appreciate that. And
you are one of my favorite peopleto work with, Joel, because I
feel like our relationship and our youknow, the cohesive manner in which we
(02:13):
are able to work on some ofthese really big issues. You are an
Obama Deputy Assistant Secretary of State.I am a long time conservative, right
of center, although apparently I don'tactually qualify as being conservative anymore. I
really appreciate the relationship that we haveand the way that we're both able to
sort of contribute in unison here forthe good, for the better good.
(02:36):
And you're one of my favorite peopleto talk to about issues in Israel because
you just know, and it's reallydifficult out in the social media world sometimes
when you're listening to people flap theirjaws who have absolutely no background, no
knowledge, no history, no nothing. So I think everyone in our audience,
we've got a pretty pretty smart crewhere that listen in. They know
(02:58):
what's happening over there. We knowwhat happened on October seventh, and just
before we came on the air,you and I I had asked you about
the hospital in is It Sheifa,Yes, Al Shifa, Al Sheifa Hospital,
And even though that was a whileback, it is it's kind of
I feel like it was sort ofa turning point there. So I'm going
(03:20):
to ask you to kind of pickup there and gives us the update to
what's happening. And as you dothat, including that how did Iran get
into all of this? So,working backwards from your question and talking to
the audience who I know, I'mconfident that the only audience you have is
highly educated and that is engaged andcares about the issues. And so so
(03:44):
I'll talk talk like a wonk happily, which I love doing. You know
how much I enjoyed that. Let'swink out here, so on Al Sheifa,
just to sort of jump in withall fours into that. Al Shifa
is a hospital in northern God thatit's a hospital that was being used by
Hamas as a base of operations andplanning and military activity throughout the early days
(04:10):
of the war against Israel, probablyfor years, held operations centers there as
well as underground is what the Israelisclaimed improved that there were tunnels coming out
from under there as an operations center, so really significant asset for Hamas and
also hospital that served the people ofGods of the Palestinian people, a real
hospital. And so Israel went intoAlshifa in the early days of the war
(04:35):
and took aggressive military action and clearedit out and emptied out the hospital.
A lot of people got killed,a lot of civilians got killed, and
a lot of Hamas fighters got killed, and the tunnels that were underneath and
the command center was exposed and destroyed, and then Israel moved on. And
one of the problems with this isthat in sort of the counterinsurgency the aspect
(05:00):
of this war and something we learnedthe hard way in Iraq. And for
your audience, I served in theState Department in the Bush administration as a
civil servant during the early years ofthe war in Iraq. I served in
the Bureau for Political Military Affairs andthe Bureau for New Eastern Affairs from two
thousand and two to two thousand andfive before going to Capitol Home working in
(05:23):
the Senate with Democrats and national securityissues. And the problem that we had
in Iraq in many ways was thatwe would go clear out some spaces and
then not hold them. We wouldmove on, and we weren't pretty quickly.
And really General Petraeus is the onewho really brought home the message you
got to build something. If you'regoing to stabilize the situation, that you
(05:44):
have to give hope, you haveto give a vision, you have to
give a reality for the people livingthere that their life is going to be
better because of what you just did, rather than worse. And if you
don't, you're inviting trouble, you'recreating a vacuum. And unfortunately it appears
that that's what happened with is Israel'sexecution of its its Al Chief operation.
It didn't and it hasn't still tothis date, created an infrastructure for state
(06:09):
building by the Palestinians in Gaza.It does not have a Palestinian leader or
face running a Palestinian authority in Gazato manage the daily affairs. It is
not bringing in Arab governments that arefriendly. And remember what just happened with
the run shooting missiles at Israel showthat there are friendly Arab governments, several
(06:30):
of them, we can talk aboutit. Several of them defended Israeli territory
over the weekend. That is afriendly government. And unfortunately this means that
Israel is forgetting about the counterinsurgency aspectof this war. And you don't win
a war if you plan for theinsurgency. I'm sorry, they're forgetting about
if you don't plan for the insurgency. And so they went back to Al
(06:53):
Shifa is around to go back inand Basically the hospital is defunct and dead,
and a lot more people died,and and that's the Al Chifa situation,
and it's it's very unsettling. Onemore thing I'll say in this,
I think this where President Biden isteam very experienced in the war in Iraq.
General Lloyd Austin, Secretary of Defense, fought ISIS in northern Iraq.
(07:15):
I mean, these are not anaive of Washington creatures. These are people
who know what's going on in theMiddle East with insurgencies and terrorist organizations,
and they've been begging the Israeli governmentto listen. And I just don't think
those lessons learned have yet penetrated theIsraeli planning for Gaza post war, not
to mention the failure to have apolitical horizon for legitimate peacemaking with right people.
(07:42):
And that's also a major flaw inIsraeli strategy. So I think the
when you just talked about more liveslost at the hospital because they were forced
to go back in again, Hamasastarted to set up shop again there.
We had a question that we wereall discussing over at Center Clip one day,
and I'm not convinced that I gotthe answer right, But I'm not
(08:03):
convinced I got it wrong either.As you know, I always come to
you when i'm when i'm you know, trying to understand what's happening in that
part of the world. And thequestion of it was, you know,
had they has Israel gone too far? Too many lives lost in Gaza?
And I expressed a concern that maybeand I and I think that I even
used the word maybe, you knowthat if they hadn't gone, if we
(08:24):
had a lot, if it wasn'ttoo many lives lost, that were getting
close to that. And I mademy argument for it at the time,
but I'm not sure that I'm rightabout that. You know, I go
back and forth on it. Andwhen you start talking about now Iran is
involved in this operation, and Iguess, I guess I'm trying to think
(08:46):
of what is my question? Whatam I trying to ask you, y'all?
I don't know at what point Iwas going to say, like,
at what point is it too much? But on the flip side, I
recognize that if Iran and Hamas itwas attacking you know, Alaska or Hawaii
or something like that, I wouldn'twould I would say there is no too
(09:07):
much. You go and go andgo and do you win? So how
do we understand all this? Thisis a long running war, shadow war,
shadow boxing, complex hostile relationship nowgoing on several decades between Israel and
Iran across the board in Israel,and this is not unique to be benessing
(09:28):
out here the current Prime minister.Across the board in Israel, there's deep
enmity and loathing of the Iranian regime, not the Iranian people, which should
know that up until the nineteen seventynine revolution, Israel and Iran had diplomatic
ties and relations and actually traded andhad defense cooperation with the shot And there
(09:52):
were many running Jews as well inTehran and there still are several thousand in
Tehran. The Persian culture the Jewishculture have interacted for twenty five hundred years,
or the Iranian culture that is.So this is a recent phenomenon,
and Iran has really taken on themantle of the leader of the resistance against
(10:13):
the West and against Israel coming outof the Middle East. And we see
it, who's fighting from the airworld on behalf of the Palestinians right now,
Nobody Iran ostensibly, but even theyaren't. And what they launched over
the weekend is not a fight onbehalf of the Palestinians, it's spite on
behalf of Iran. Iran has beensponsoring terrorist organizations across multiple countries in the
(10:35):
Middle East for several decades now.His bola in Lebanon, they shop in
Syria, in Iraq, they've kindof taken over the government the who's in
Yemen, and these proxies have beendedicated to a couple of things, one
influencing the politics in their host countriesto benefit Iran. So it's sort of
(10:56):
a hegemonic behavior by the government ofIran to take over governments in the Middle
East and really penetrate facilitated I wouldadd by our knocking out of Saddam Hussein
that who had provided against that behavior. So thank you to the Neo Kans
for that gift to Iran. Sothere's a lot of blanding around, but
(11:18):
don't get me going I'm on aroll, baby, no, And so
don't listen to them when they tellyou bomb Iran. These are the guys
that made Iran stronger in the Arabworld. Well, that's that's what I'm
that's really where I'm hitting with this. Like when you said, like when
I was thinking about this over theweekend, about Iran now engaging. You
just talked about friendly nations who helpedto protect Israel against Iran this weekend,
(11:43):
and I want you to identify.I don't want to. I'm messing with
their countries. I'm sorry, rightgo ahead. No, Jordan, no,
Bobby, No, not interested init. And they they all engage
this weekend and they all help theIsraelis at the United States requests, which,
by the way, kudos to PresidentBiden for orchestrating a tremendous diplomatic effort
(12:03):
with our brilliant scent Com Central Commandleaders who have been practicing and training and
doing drills for years with these armies, who we yes supplied with an American
made military equipment for just this momentso that it's interoperable, so that when
you're shooting missiles in the sky,you're shooting the bad guy's missiles, not
our own missiles. All of itworked in a way that was like a
(12:26):
dream scenario for defense planners that theyhaven't experienced that kind of success probably ever
in the Middle East. It wasreally a stunning display of success for American
defense planning and military quality and executionall that to decide Iran has these these
(12:46):
proxy groups. They also have onecalled Hamas sort of Hamas is Sunni,
Iran is Shia, kind of comingalong its lines of convenience. But you
know these groups and has balled inLebanon and the Huthis. They have been
active, active, active against Israel. So the shadow wars that Israel has
been striking back quite extensively, andthey hit the peak strike on April first,
(13:11):
where they bombed a facility in Damascus. Now the media says an embassy,
then some say an embassy compound,then some say a diplomatic facility.
I'm just going to call them anIranian facility because it was in the diplomatic
compound. But the number two essentiallyof the Islamic Revolution Revolutionary Guard COOURT,
(13:33):
the IRISGC, which is the Iranianmilitary arm that does the power projection across
the Middle East. He was therein order to help facilitate weapons transfer from
Iran to Hezbola to threaten Israel.Right, So he and his top lieutenants
are there in Damascus using a diplomaticfacility for military planning purposes. By my
book, that's the violation of theGeneva Convention. They converted to a military
(13:56):
facility. They were hit boom,and every one knew this was the big
strike. And that then led towhat so what we saw this weekend.
They didn't do it on behalf ofHamas. They did it on behalf of
their own sense of vulnerability and needfor deterrence and their own people getting killed
by the Israelis. But they wentto a level that we've never seen.
(14:18):
They attacked Israel went to a levelwe haven't seen. I went to a
level we've know. Okay, okay, so Israel. I'm wondering about Israel
doing what they did in the compound, and and I'm questioning it, you
know, was that too far ornot so much? Too far? Was
that asking, you know, creatingmore problem? It was highly provocative,
(14:43):
highly provocative, highly provide. Wasit appropriate? Was it appropriate? Was
it justified? Was it? AndI guess those are two different questions.
Was it justified? And was itlike strategically appropriate? Cost benefit in that,
wasn't it? Now that the dusthas settled, now that Iran has
(15:05):
shot back, and now that itis two fifteen days, two weeks,
fifteen days after the event. Onecan look at this and assess that Israel
came out ahead because it killed seriousgenerals who were leading efforts to supply his
bolah, and it humiliated Iran militarilyby providing a defensive iron shield over its
(15:31):
territory that rejected an Iranian attack.And this is the key, and this
is like is nothing, he issmart enough to accept this. It won
diplomatic allies and got Iran painted intoa negative quarter overnight after months of looking
(15:52):
like the bad guy. So thisis a win for Israel. In this
microcosmo, one could not have saidthe day after the striking Damask, we
said it would turn out so well. That was in many ways because of
significant American backing, that it turnedout this way well, and you would
think that that would be on thelist of lessons learned that we couldn't say
(16:15):
the next day when that you knowwho who is the winner of the loser,
you know whatever, all of theall of the consequences of it.
And so often that's we get,we paint ourselves into It's just worked out
well this time. It will alwayswork out well, right, right,
So let's talk about Net Yahoo,and then let's talk about Biden, because
they obviously both have a lot todo with this. It's Net and Yah,
(16:38):
who I don't. I mean,clearly he had a very cooperative relationship
with the former president on certain things. You know, he and Trump seemed
to have some kind of a youknow, I don't know what it was
credited. Yeah, yes, exactly, no love no love letters, I
don't think though, no letters.But you know, BB kind of screwed
(17:03):
Trump at the end, according toTrump on what what did he say?
So after Trump spent years basically givingthat Sanyahu all of his asks for nothing
in return, Oh, recognized Jerusalem, I'll give you the goal, I'll
ignore the Palestinians. I'll purchase peaceagreements for you with these Arab states by
giving up American assets to incentivize.Then, after all that, Trump basically
(17:26):
won in his endorsement on a phonecall before the action, and then BB's
like, well, Finden's good,and you know the outcome Trump Trump's face
was like, look at this guy, this asshole. After all I him,
this is what I get. Yep. Well, maybe Trump is still
learning about international politics, you know, he's still but but it Obviously Bibe
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did the right thing. I mean, you don't expect other leaders didn't.
But and you know what, itturns out, it turns out BB was
right because by this for him.So Bb was right about that. BB
was right about Syria and I andSyria I ran and well, I'm away.
Turned out that it turned out tohis benefit. Yeah, yeah,
(18:12):
well, and that's like, tellme more about him, because there's a
lot of people out there that painthim as being kind of a Trump like
attitude or approach to this, sothat that he's, you know, trying
to be mister hard guy too fartoo much. I don't know how to
describe it. I saw somebody onone of the social media platforms. I
(18:33):
think you just used the phrase provocativeand saying that he was being too provocative?
Is he Is he a smart leader? Is he strategically smart? And
and then if you want to leadstraight into from there, you know,
how is Biden doing with Bob?How is he handling it? When you
tell me that it was Biden whowas behind coordinating that response this weekend,
(18:56):
I had no idea. Biden needsto do a better job of getting the
message out there. I'm I'm prettytuned in. Well yeah for real,
So like you know, kind ofstart with Netanyahu but worked your way across
the seas here to Di Biden.I think the thing that people need to
understand about netsn Yahoo is first andforemost, he is the longest serving ever
prime minister in the history of theState of Israel, and that is no
(19:17):
small feat because that is a royaldemocracy and people lose their jobs all the
time in that country. He presidedover the single worst terrorist attack against the
State of Israel and is still runningthe country. A year ago he launched
an effort to undermine their rule oflaw and usurped the power of the courts,
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the Supreme Court in particular. Hundredsof thousands of Israelis came out of
protest, and he's still running it. It's quite a remarkable thing. So
a little bit of respect for hispolitical acumen it is necessary. Netta,
who is a curious creature father wasa leading right wing intellectual early in the
early days of the state and inthe movement of Zionism. His brother is
(20:06):
a national hero, was killed duringthe raid on Ntebbe. If you recall
Joni Netzingna, who was the leaderof that raid on Ntebi when fifty or
sixties Raelis were hijacked and they wentto in Tebbi Idiomine ran in Tobby and
the Israelis went in and the darkof Knight and took them out. Oh
yeah, yeah, yeah yeah.That was his older brother who was that
(20:26):
mission and was killed on that mission. So he comes from a d Israeli
world. Plus he grew up inlike suburban Philadelphia, which is why it
sounds like an American. So therewe have it. So so there's all
that. Interestingly, Neatana who wasthe spokesman for Israel during the Gulf War
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and then he was sent to whenhe was sent to Washington, sak Shamir
was his mentor. Saks Shamir wasthe Prime Minister of Israel. And bring
us up for a reason because peopleare talking about this, what's gonna do
well? History is circular. IsakShamir was the Prime Minister of Israel during
the Gulf War in nineteen ninety onewhen Saddamusin sent SCUD missiles into Tel Aviv
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and hit buildings and George Bush,Papa Bush, sat on Shamir and said,
don't respond, I'll deal with it. We sent Patriot battery missiles out
there to defend and then the USknocked out the scud launchers in western Iraq.
But when was the last time youheard the phrase scud launcher? I
(21:36):
mean, you're really talking about history? Yeah, yeah, I do.
So he listened and Israel gained alot out of that, and I think
that the netting out who knows thatstory. There's something extraordinary that happened over
this weekend and people will begin tounravel it. So the United States for
the first time came to the directmilitary defense of Israel in a way,
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and it's not lost on israelis howcrucial that was. The political challenge here
is what are they going to dowith it? Is netting out. Who's
gonna say, well, I gotto go into Iran now and bomb their
nuclear facilities and then when they hitback, America will be obligated to protect
us a moral hazard of sorts.That's what some people are asking, or
(22:22):
is it Wow, the Americans reallybailed us out here and we kind of
owe them a little bit because acrossIsraeli security circles, the number one ASCID
they have is the strategic relationship withthe United States. For reason, and
that reason just showed itself over theweekend, and there have been a stop
after this, a lot of concernsthat the war in Gaza has been breaking
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that ship frame extent, and thatscares the hell out of the Israeli security
establishment as well. So I thinkthink that we are in some new territory
on options and choices going forward.But make no mistake, if the United
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States had said we're not going todefend you, We're gonna sit back because
of this moral hazard thing, wewant you to feel too secure, which
some people in Washington, who Ithink are very hateful of Israel, are
saying, what would it have been? It would have been a night where
hundreds of missiles would have hit Israeliuh, civilian apartment buildings. And then
(23:30):
would that had somehow possibility for abig war. Nope, we would have
had the big one. So Ithink it would have It would have right,
it would have up the possibility thatgo straight to Tehran. So our
intervention actually cauterized the situation. Ilike that. I like that phrase that
(23:52):
it cauterized it, And that's exactlyright. So you just said, use
the phrase, has the war inguys of frase the relationship between US and
Israel. It seems like it hasto some degree. But to what degree?
Is that? A worrying degree fromour perspective? I mean, we
defend Israel for a reason, andBiden for very moral reasons, I would
(24:15):
say, And Biden took an actionthis weekend that I'm incredibly impressed by,
and then I didn't know about untilyou just said it. So where is
that relationship now? What should notjust so much? What should we expect
Biden to do? But what shouldBiden? Do? You know? It
was I'm writing this down because I'mgoing to say this. It was a
(24:37):
classic and clean defensive operation to supportthe state of Israel. It was clear,
classic, clean and clear because ofwars, anything but that, right,
right? And so in the earlydays of post October seventh, the
President came to the public defense ofIsrael, military support of Israel in a
legitimate manner to to stop Hamas's attacksin the immediate aftermath of that mass slaughter
(25:06):
where they were sending thousands of rocketsinto Israel. What has gone on since
then has converted into less of aimmediate defensive operation like we saw over the
weekend, and a sort of miniforever war that Israel's now engaged in,
and it's opened up the questions ofis this really the right approach, is
(25:26):
this really working? And that's wherethe fraying has occurred. And then the
costs are so high to the Palestinianpeople that that also eliminates our undermines.
That is, not eliminates, nevereliminate anything in Middle Ages right, undermines
the possibilities of a potential peace solution, which is what we're talking about,
which at its core, every Israelinational security expert and most Israeli prime ministers,
(25:52):
even once who were on the right, eventually came around to the reality
that the best way to have longterm peace and security for Israel is a
two states agreed upon by the Israelisand the Palestinians that ends their conflict.
That is it, and that's wherethe President has been trying to guide Israel.
Republicans are going to demagogue this andsay that is undermining Israel. I
(26:17):
don't think the president owes anyone anapology for how strong he is is defending
Israel's security. He showed it overright, and I think that his advocacy
for two states is rooted in thesame idea of advocacy for long term security
for Israel. And I'm writing thingsdown too as we go, so they'll
remember some of this in the future. So I agree Biden no one in
(26:41):
apology, and regardless of almost almostregardless of what approach he had taken,
I would say that the sitting presidentof the United States has to make these
extraordinarily awful, horrible, difficult decisions, you know, and we as the
people could maybe be a little moreunderstanding of that every now and then.
I don't want to turn those wordsback on me, because I would say
(27:02):
that we've had presidents who have justmade such awful decisions. But so politically
speaking, the more that Biden doesto support Israel, or to even appear
as though he's supporting Israel, thatputs him in a politically perilous position in
a re election year. So oneI would say, I want to give
him even more credit than you havefor having taken the actions that he has
(27:26):
in an election year. But talkabout that just a little bit, isn't
He's putting himself a little bit,you know, at risk here as well.
Yeah, the Democratic Party politics onIsrael are very hard right now,
Joe Biden comes from the old schoolbipartisan consensus, long standing support for Israel,
(27:48):
traditional APAC kind of line of support, of support, military assistance,
don't question a relationship. There arepeople like that still in government all over
the place, of course, Butwhen it comes to the voting public right
now, the initial days of thesupport for Israel in the Democratic Party has
really flipped in the other direction becauseof the mass casualties being taken by Palestinian
(28:14):
civilians. So we can explain itaway, we can define why and how
and what's occurred, but I wantto move that to the side. Just
the reality of Netsan Yahoo and hiswar right now, the costs are so
high to the Palestinian civilians, andthe lack of a advocacy for a two
state solution, a peaceful outcome hasreally diminished support for Israel within the Democratic
(28:38):
Party. I believe it's like aballoon. I believe it can pump right
back up if Israel were to movemore in those directions. Opponents will say
that why shouldn't they because that's badfor Israel and security. I would respectfully
disagree, but I think politically forBiden that means that puts him in a
(29:00):
minority position right now in the DemocraticParty onstanding and that's that's so that's an
issue. Now he's a national securityleader of former chairman of stand Formulations Committee.
He's going to do these things basedupon his security analysis, and he's
looking at what's happening on the ground, like increased hunger to the point where
potential famine. So we send ina peer to try to build a peer
(29:25):
and beat up the Israelies publicly movemore goods in right now saying they're going
to put in five hundred trucks aday. Right These are not inherently bad
for Israel, but this is thepresident responding to on the ground. I
should say this way, said Bets, on the ground reality he sees this
war is going in the wrong directionsubstantively politically. It also is helpful to
(29:48):
the president because he shows he actuallyis and I believe since the beginning has
been caring about the Palestinian people.But he's doing it now in a way
that's so public avert versus behind thescenes, which is what they did for
the first few months. That it'salso signal to the base of the party.
And this should matter that he istaking actions. Now, there are
(30:11):
people who are not going to givehim credit for it, but there are
a lot of people who are goingto watch and say, oh, Okay,
he is compassionate. And you know, they're all politicians, they're all
elected. They have to keep theirjobs if they're going to do the work.
And he's had a hard you know, he's been done a hard hand
balancing it because at the core,I think for Joe Biden and any American
(30:34):
president really at the end of theday, is you have to defer to
the sovereign government. He is choosingto do for his own security. The
big question in the fight on CapitolHill is do we have to go along
with that or not? And that'swhere we see the questions about aid to
Israel being blocked, argued against bysome conditions being applied to protect civilian life
(30:59):
all that. That's where the debatenow is. And I think the Biden
team frankly benefits from that. Youknow, you worked on the Hill,
you know, you know how itworks. I didn't work on the Hill,
but I know how it works.Yeah, caught back up. I
think it works quite well for theBiden administration to have people on Capitol Hill,
threatening it gives a little more oomph. And the big moment I'll pause
(31:22):
after this. The big moment camewhen Chuck Schumer, also of the Biden
milk on Israel stuff, American Jewfrom Brooklyn, longtime deep supporter of Israel,
he made a speech on the floorwhere he basically said that Netsan Yahoo
and his war along with Hamas areproblems for peace and that they need new
(31:42):
elections in Israel, AKA, theyneed to change the way they're doing business.
And that was Chuck Schumer. Soyou can tell at this point in
the Democratic Party there's not a lotof patients for the kind of execution of
the war and lack of a visionfor peace that we we've seen well.
And I think that I like thisis probably a good place for us to
(32:04):
wrap up. Really like how youjust laid that out. I know there
are people in the Democratic Party whoare very unhappy with Biden's execution of this
or what they perceived sometimes to beBiden's execution of our position in all of
this. But to the point,to your point, and you just made
it very clearly, the Palinestinian peoplewould be in a much worse situation right
now, if Biden wasn't influencing Netanyawho the way that he was, if
(32:30):
he wasn't engaged the way that heis, I really believe this. For
people to argue that somehow it's Biden'sfault, right that Israel responded to a
massive terrorist attack committed against the civilians, right, it's a total misread of
whose fault it is for provoking thisfight. I've been saying that the misread
(32:52):
it's a mythread for like ignoring thatIran just sent hundreds of bonds. I
can disagree on how the response,but don't ignore cause and effect, and
don't ignore the obvious, because Iwould say the same about October seventh.
You know, Hamas attacked civilians.It's like flying a plane into an office
(33:12):
building in downtown New York City.They attacked civilians. They didn't attack,
you know, a munitions dump ora military base, or they attacked children
and young people and so, andthat was traumatized in Israeli society. Yes,
still holding hostages there and not givingthem up. And for the Israeli
(33:34):
people, they are living in atrauma themselves. And the idea that somehow
their government would not respond and it'sJoe Biden's fault, is the American arrogance.
Well, I'll just say that,Yeah, I agree with you.
That is such a self absorbed Americanmindset that ignores reality of what the Middle
East and other countries are all about. Right, we take our own perspective,
(33:58):
our own battles with each other.We think that the world is revolving
around that. I would have hasAn argued it's a colonialist mindset from her.
I don't really disagree with that nowthat you use the word, But
you know, I just think Ithink I hate to always end up on
the political but that's just where weare sometimes. I think that the biggest
(34:19):
issue for Joe Biden is not thathe isn't doing the right thing, because
when I listened to you explain itto me, I think I'm reassured that
he's doing the right thing. Ithink that politically he's putting himself in a
precarious position. And normally I wouldn't, you know, I wouldn't care as
much about a democratic So that Itried to be honest with you, But
(34:40):
our democracy is at risk without JoeBiden running a successful campaign, our democracy
is at risk, and so I'malways watching through that veil as well.
But I agree with you. Theidea of trying to blame Joe Biden for
something Hamast did and then the waythat the you know, the Israelis responded
to it is just ridiculous. It'sself serving, is what it is.
(35:04):
It's self serving. The people whoreact that way have a purpose behind it,
and it advances their purpose. That'sright, that's right. That's me
and I appreciate your saying that.I do believe that the political risks are
high, but the decision that hemade and that he made even over the
(35:25):
weekend just I know I'm extending it, but he put all that aside,
beside the frame issues, he putaside the frustrations over the execution of the
war in Gaza, and he wentback to core American principles, which is
that we defend our allies and ourdemocracies and our democratic allies when they're under
(35:49):
assault, unjustly in particular, butwhen they're under assault and there are allies,
we stand by them. And thatis an amazing level of integrity because
it would have been politically pretty youknow, interestingly easy, in a very
narrow sense to not do it.Of course it would have been a ship
storm afterwards, but he stood byhis values and those are American values.
(36:13):
And I'm going to open the aperture. I know I'm going way too.
I'm going to say this. Thoseare the values that are at their core
extraordinarily different, significantly opposite from DonaldTrump, who has constantly said he wants
to give Ukraine to the Russians andjoins a NATO. This is it.
This is the difference what just happenedthis weekend. This is the difference right
(36:36):
there. I'm okay with you wrappingit up with that, very much so,
because that's another great lesson, agreat point for people to think about.
When we see what's unfolding in theworld. It matters who's in the
White House, you know it,extremely It really matters who is in the
White House. So Joel, thankyou so much. I know things now
that I did not know when westarted this conversation, and it was that
(36:58):
last thing you've got in your wrapup statement just now. That's why you
and I, in spite of ourpolitical differences or policy differences, get along
so well, honestly, and whyI so value your friendship and your companionship
in this battle to defeat Donald Trumpand preserve democracy in America. Joe Grubin,
national security expert, strategists, formerDeputy Assistant Secretary of State. I
(37:22):
appreciate you being here. I'm JenniferHorn you're listening to. Is it just
me? Or have we all lostour minds
Is it just me? Or havewe all lost our minds? It's a
question I've been asking myself on repeatfor the last eight years, and I
know I'm not alone in that.Is it the politics, is it the
culture? Or am I just gettingold? Hi? I'm Jennifer Horn and
I'm a former Republican strategist and partyleader turned independent sanity activist. I decided
(00:24):
to do this podcast so we couldexplore these questions. I'll bring experts to
the table from politics and media andculture. We'll have raw, insightful conversations
with the clear goal of getting tothe bottom of it all. One way
or another. We've all lost ourminds, and I hope you'll join us
on the journey to find them again. Hi, you're listening to Is it
(00:46):
just me? Or have we allLost our minds? I'm your host,
Jennifer Horn. Very happy to haveyou back. We're going to spend some
time today talking about the updates comingout of Israel and Gaza and Nara Ran.
Unfortunately, who has decided to getinto the fray over there? What
does this mean? How is PresidentBiden handling all of this? And honestly,
(01:08):
you know, is there anything happeningthat would suggest that the United States
will become more or less involved thanwe already are. I'm really pleased to
have our next guest back with us. If you listen to my spaces,
you've heard him before. He's alsoa contributor over at centerclip dot com,
where you know I am on thepanel of contributors there five minute audio op
(01:30):
eds, and Joel, who isour guest today, is there as well,
and I highly recommend that you tunein a couple times a week over
there and see what he has tosay. Joel Rubin, national security expert,
democratic strategists, and former Obama administrationDeputy Assistant Secretary of State. Joel,
(01:51):
thank you so much for being withus today always, Jennifer, is
such an honor to be with youand with your audience. Thank you for
everything you can do for all ourdemocracy, quite frankly, and keeping hope
alive here in the United States.Well, I really appreciate that. And
you are one of my favorite peopleto work with, Joel, because I
feel like our relationship and our youknow, the cohesive manner in which we
(02:13):
are able to work on some ofthese really big issues. You are an
Obama Deputy Assistant Secretary of State.I am a long time conservative, right
of center, although apparently I don'tactually qualify as being conservative anymore. I
really appreciate the relationship that we haveand the way that we're both able to
sort of contribute in unison here forthe good, for the better good.
(02:36):
And you're one of my favorite peopleto talk to about issues in Israel because
you just know, and it's reallydifficult out in the social media world sometimes
when you're listening to people flap theirjaws who have absolutely no background, no
knowledge, no history, no nothing. So I think everyone in our audience,
we've got a pretty pretty smart crewhere that listen in. They know
(02:58):
what's happening over there. We knowwhat happened on October seventh, and just
before we came on the air,you and I I had asked you about
the hospital in is It Sheifa,Yes, Al Shifa, Al Sheifa Hospital,
And even though that was a whileback, it is it's kind of
I feel like it was sort ofa turning point there. So I'm going
(03:20):
to ask you to kind of pickup there and gives us the update to
what's happening. And as you dothat, including that how did Iran get
into all of this? So,working backwards from your question and talking to
the audience who I know, I'mconfident that the only audience you have is
highly educated and that is engaged andcares about the issues. And so so
(03:44):
I'll talk talk like a wonk happily, which I love doing. You know
how much I enjoyed that. Let'swink out here, so on Al Sheifa,
just to sort of jump in withall fours into that. Al Shifa
is a hospital in northern God thatit's a hospital that was being used by
Hamas as a base of operations andplanning and military activity throughout the early days
(04:10):
of the war against Israel, probablyfor years, held operations centers there as
well as underground is what the Israelisclaimed improved that there were tunnels coming out
from under there as an operations center, so really significant asset for Hamas and
also hospital that served the people ofGods of the Palestinian people, a real
hospital. And so Israel went intoAlshifa in the early days of the war
(04:35):
and took aggressive military action and clearedit out and emptied out the hospital.
A lot of people got killed,a lot of civilians got killed, and
a lot of Hamas fighters got killed, and the tunnels that were underneath and
the command center was exposed and destroyed, and then Israel moved on. And
one of the problems with this isthat in sort of the counterinsurgency the aspect
(05:00):
of this war and something we learnedthe hard way in Iraq. And for
your audience, I served in theState Department in the Bush administration as a
civil servant during the early years ofthe war in Iraq. I served in
the Bureau for Political Military Affairs andthe Bureau for New Eastern Affairs from two
thousand and two to two thousand andfive before going to Capitol Home working in
(05:23):
the Senate with Democrats and national securityissues. And the problem that we had
in Iraq in many ways was thatwe would go clear out some spaces and
then not hold them. We wouldmove on, and we weren't pretty quickly.
And really General Petraeus is the onewho really brought home the message you
got to build something. If you'regoing to stabilize the situation, that you
(05:44):
have to give hope, you haveto give a vision, you have to
give a reality for the people livingthere that their life is going to be
better because of what you just did, rather than worse. And if you
don't, you're inviting trouble, you'recreating a vacuum. And unfortunately it appears
that that's what happened with is Israel'sexecution of its its Al Chief operation.
It didn't and it hasn't still tothis date, created an infrastructure for state
(06:09):
building by the Palestinians in Gaza.It does not have a Palestinian leader or
face running a Palestinian authority in Gazato manage the daily affairs. It is
not bringing in Arab governments that arefriendly. And remember what just happened with
the run shooting missiles at Israel showthat there are friendly Arab governments, several
(06:30):
of them, we can talk aboutit. Several of them defended Israeli territory
over the weekend. That is afriendly government. And unfortunately this means that
Israel is forgetting about the counterinsurgency aspectof this war. And you don't win
a war if you plan for theinsurgency. I'm sorry, they're forgetting about
if you don't plan for the insurgency. And so they went back to Al
(06:53):
Shifa is around to go back inand Basically the hospital is defunct and dead,
and a lot more people died,and and that's the Al Chifa situation,
and it's it's very unsettling. Onemore thing I'll say in this,
I think this where President Biden isteam very experienced in the war in Iraq.
General Lloyd Austin, Secretary of Defense, fought ISIS in northern Iraq.
(07:15):
I mean, these are not anaive of Washington creatures. These are people
who know what's going on in theMiddle East with insurgencies and terrorist organizations,
and they've been begging the Israeli governmentto listen. And I just don't think
those lessons learned have yet penetrated theIsraeli planning for Gaza post war, not
to mention the failure to have apolitical horizon for legitimate peacemaking with right people.
(07:42):
And that's also a major flaw inIsraeli strategy. So I think the
when you just talked about more liveslost at the hospital because they were forced
to go back in again, Hamasastarted to set up shop again there.
We had a question that we wereall discussing over at Center Clip one day,
and I'm not convinced that I gotthe answer right, But I'm not
(08:03):
convinced I got it wrong either.As you know, I always come to
you when i'm when i'm you know, trying to understand what's happening in that
part of the world. And thequestion of it was, you know,
had they has Israel gone too far? Too many lives lost in Gaza?
And I expressed a concern that maybeand I and I think that I even
used the word maybe, you knowthat if they hadn't gone, if we
(08:24):
had a lot, if it wasn'ttoo many lives lost, that were getting
close to that. And I mademy argument for it at the time,
but I'm not sure that I'm rightabout that. You know, I go
back and forth on it. Andwhen you start talking about now Iran is
involved in this operation, and Iguess, I guess I'm trying to think
(08:46):
of what is my question? Whatam I trying to ask you, y'all?
I don't know at what point Iwas going to say, like,
at what point is it too much? But on the flip side, I
recognize that if Iran and Hamas itwas attacking you know, Alaska or Hawaii
or something like that, I wouldn'twould I would say there is no too
(09:07):
much. You go and go andgo and do you win? So how
do we understand all this? Thisis a long running war, shadow war,
shadow boxing, complex hostile relationship nowgoing on several decades between Israel and
Iran across the board in Israel,and this is not unique to be benessing
(09:28):
out here the current Prime minister.Across the board in Israel, there's deep
enmity and loathing of the Iranian regime, not the Iranian people, which should
know that up until the nineteen seventynine revolution, Israel and Iran had diplomatic
ties and relations and actually traded andhad defense cooperation with the shot And there
(09:52):
were many running Jews as well inTehran and there still are several thousand in
Tehran. The Persian culture the Jewishculture have interacted for twenty five hundred years,
or the Iranian culture that is.So this is a recent phenomenon,
and Iran has really taken on themantle of the leader of the resistance against
(10:13):
the West and against Israel coming outof the Middle East. And we see
it, who's fighting from the airworld on behalf of the Palestinians right now,
Nobody Iran ostensibly, but even theyaren't. And what they launched over
the weekend is not a fight onbehalf of the Palestinians, it's spite on
behalf of Iran. Iran has beensponsoring terrorist organizations across multiple countries in the
(10:35):
Middle East for several decades now.His bola in Lebanon, they shop in
Syria, in Iraq, they've kindof taken over the government the who's in
Yemen, and these proxies have beendedicated to a couple of things, one
influencing the politics in their host countriesto benefit Iran. So it's sort of
(10:56):
a hegemonic behavior by the government ofIran to take over governments in the Middle
East and really penetrate facilitated I wouldadd by our knocking out of Saddam Hussein
that who had provided against that behavior. So thank you to the Neo Kans
for that gift to Iran. Sothere's a lot of blanding around, but
(11:18):
don't get me going I'm on aroll, baby, no, And so
don't listen to them when they tellyou bomb Iran. These are the guys
that made Iran stronger in the Arabworld. Well, that's that's what I'm
that's really where I'm hitting with this. Like when you said, like when
I was thinking about this over theweekend, about Iran now engaging. You
just talked about friendly nations who helpedto protect Israel against Iran this weekend,
(11:43):
and I want you to identify.I don't want to. I'm messing with
their countries. I'm sorry, rightgo ahead. No, Jordan, no,
Bobby, No, not interested init. And they they all engage
this weekend and they all help theIsraelis at the United States requests, which,
by the way, kudos to PresidentBiden for orchestrating a tremendous diplomatic effort
(12:03):
with our brilliant scent Com Central Commandleaders who have been practicing and training and
doing drills for years with these armies, who we yes supplied with an American
made military equipment for just this momentso that it's interoperable, so that when
you're shooting missiles in the sky,you're shooting the bad guy's missiles, not
our own missiles. All of itworked in a way that was like a
(12:26):
dream scenario for defense planners that theyhaven't experienced that kind of success probably ever
in the Middle East. It wasreally a stunning display of success for American
defense planning and military quality and executionall that to decide Iran has these these
(12:46):
proxy groups. They also have onecalled Hamas sort of Hamas is Sunni,
Iran is Shia, kind of comingalong its lines of convenience. But you
know these groups and has balled inLebanon and the Huthis. They have been
active, active, active against Israel. So the shadow wars that Israel has
been striking back quite extensively, andthey hit the peak strike on April first,
(13:11):
where they bombed a facility in Damascus. Now the media says an embassy,
then some say an embassy compound,then some say a diplomatic facility.
I'm just going to call them anIranian facility because it was in the diplomatic
compound. But the number two essentiallyof the Islamic Revolution Revolutionary Guard COOURT,
(13:33):
the IRISGC, which is the Iranianmilitary arm that does the power projection across
the Middle East. He was therein order to help facilitate weapons transfer from
Iran to Hezbola to threaten Israel.Right, So he and his top lieutenants
are there in Damascus using a diplomaticfacility for military planning purposes. By my
book, that's the violation of theGeneva Convention. They converted to a military
(13:56):
facility. They were hit boom,and every one knew this was the big
strike. And that then led towhat so what we saw this weekend.
They didn't do it on behalf ofHamas. They did it on behalf of
their own sense of vulnerability and needfor deterrence and their own people getting killed
by the Israelis. But they wentto a level that we've never seen.
(14:18):
They attacked Israel went to a levelwe haven't seen. I went to a
level we've know. Okay, okay, so Israel. I'm wondering about Israel
doing what they did in the compound, and and I'm questioning it, you
know, was that too far ornot so much? Too far? Was
that asking, you know, creatingmore problem? It was highly provocative,
(14:43):
highly provocative, highly provide. Wasit appropriate? Was it appropriate? Was
it justified? Was it? AndI guess those are two different questions.
Was it justified? And was itlike strategically appropriate? Cost benefit in that,
wasn't it? Now that the dusthas settled, now that Iran has
(15:05):
shot back, and now that itis two fifteen days, two weeks,
fifteen days after the event. Onecan look at this and assess that Israel
came out ahead because it killed seriousgenerals who were leading efforts to supply his
bolah, and it humiliated Iran militarilyby providing a defensive iron shield over its
(15:31):
territory that rejected an Iranian attack.And this is the key, and this
is like is nothing, he issmart enough to accept this. It won
diplomatic allies and got Iran painted intoa negative quarter overnight after months of looking
(15:52):
like the bad guy. So thisis a win for Israel. In this
microcosmo, one could not have saidthe day after the striking Damask, we
said it would turn out so well. That was in many ways because of
significant American backing, that it turnedout this way well, and you would
think that that would be on thelist of lessons learned that we couldn't say
(16:15):
the next day when that you knowwho who is the winner of the loser,
you know whatever, all of theall of the consequences of it.
And so often that's we get,we paint ourselves into It's just worked out
well this time. It will alwayswork out well, right, right,
So let's talk about Net Yahoo,and then let's talk about Biden, because
they obviously both have a lot todo with this. It's Net and Yah,
(16:38):
who I don't. I mean,clearly he had a very cooperative relationship
with the former president on certain things. You know, he and Trump seemed
to have some kind of a youknow, I don't know what it was
credited. Yeah, yes, exactly, no love no love letters, I
don't think though, no letters.But you know, BB kind of screwed
(17:03):
Trump at the end, according toTrump on what what did he say?
So after Trump spent years basically givingthat Sanyahu all of his asks for nothing
in return, Oh, recognized Jerusalem, I'll give you the goal, I'll
ignore the Palestinians. I'll purchase peaceagreements for you with these Arab states by
giving up American assets to incentivize.Then, after all that, Trump basically
(17:26):
won in his endorsement on a phonecall before the action, and then BB's
like, well, Finden's good,and you know the outcome Trump Trump's face
was like, look at this guy, this asshole. After all I him,
this is what I get. Yep. Well, maybe Trump is still
learning about international politics, you know, he's still but but it Obviously Bibe
(17:49):
did the right thing. I mean, you don't expect other leaders didn't.
But and you know what, itturns out, it turns out BB was
right because by this for him.So Bb was right about that. BB
was right about Syria and I andSyria I ran and well, I'm away.
Turned out that it turned out tohis benefit. Yeah, yeah,
(18:12):
well, and that's like, tellme more about him, because there's a
lot of people out there that painthim as being kind of a Trump like
attitude or approach to this, sothat that he's, you know, trying
to be mister hard guy too fartoo much. I don't know how to
describe it. I saw somebody onone of the social media platforms. I
(18:33):
think you just used the phrase provocativeand saying that he was being too provocative?
Is he Is he a smart leader? Is he strategically smart? And
and then if you want to leadstraight into from there, you know,
how is Biden doing with Bob?How is he handling it? When you
tell me that it was Biden whowas behind coordinating that response this weekend,
(18:56):
I had no idea. Biden needsto do a better job of getting the
message out there. I'm I'm prettytuned in. Well yeah for real,
So like you know, kind ofstart with Netanyahu but worked your way across
the seas here to Di Biden.I think the thing that people need to
understand about netsn Yahoo is first andforemost, he is the longest serving ever
prime minister in the history of theState of Israel, and that is no
(19:17):
small feat because that is a royaldemocracy and people lose their jobs all the
time in that country. He presidedover the single worst terrorist attack against the
State of Israel and is still runningthe country. A year ago he launched
an effort to undermine their rule oflaw and usurped the power of the courts,
(19:40):
the Supreme Court in particular. Hundredsof thousands of Israelis came out of
protest, and he's still running it. It's quite a remarkable thing. So
a little bit of respect for hispolitical acumen it is necessary. Netta,
who is a curious creature father wasa leading right wing intellectual early in the
early days of the state and inthe movement of Zionism. His brother is
(20:06):
a national hero, was killed duringthe raid on Ntebbe. If you recall
Joni Netzingna, who was the leaderof that raid on Ntebi when fifty or
sixties Raelis were hijacked and they wentto in Tebbi Idiomine ran in Tobby and
the Israelis went in and the darkof Knight and took them out. Oh
yeah, yeah, yeah yeah.That was his older brother who was that
(20:26):
mission and was killed on that mission. So he comes from a d Israeli
world. Plus he grew up inlike suburban Philadelphia, which is why it
sounds like an American. So therewe have it. So so there's all
that. Interestingly, Neatana who wasthe spokesman for Israel during the Gulf War
(20:51):
and then he was sent to whenhe was sent to Washington, sak Shamir
was his mentor. Saks Shamir wasthe Prime Minister of Israel. And bring
us up for a reason because peopleare talking about this, what's gonna do
well? History is circular. IsakShamir was the Prime Minister of Israel during
the Gulf War in nineteen ninety onewhen Saddamusin sent SCUD missiles into Tel Aviv
(21:15):
and hit buildings and George Bush,Papa Bush, sat on Shamir and said,
don't respond, I'll deal with it. We sent Patriot battery missiles out
there to defend and then the USknocked out the scud launchers in western Iraq.
But when was the last time youheard the phrase scud launcher? I
(21:36):
mean, you're really talking about history? Yeah, yeah, I do.
So he listened and Israel gained alot out of that, and I think
that the netting out who knows thatstory. There's something extraordinary that happened over
this weekend and people will begin tounravel it. So the United States for
the first time came to the directmilitary defense of Israel in a way,
(22:00):
and it's not lost on israelis howcrucial that was. The political challenge here
is what are they going to dowith it? Is netting out. Who's
gonna say, well, I gotto go into Iran now and bomb their
nuclear facilities and then when they hitback, America will be obligated to protect
us a moral hazard of sorts.That's what some people are asking, or
(22:22):
is it Wow, the Americans reallybailed us out here and we kind of
owe them a little bit because acrossIsraeli security circles, the number one ASCID
they have is the strategic relationship withthe United States. For reason, and
that reason just showed itself over theweekend, and there have been a stop
after this, a lot of concernsthat the war in Gaza has been breaking
(22:45):
that ship frame extent, and thatscares the hell out of the Israeli security
establishment as well. So I thinkthink that we are in some new territory
on options and choices going forward.But make no mistake, if the United
(23:07):
States had said we're not going todefend you, We're gonna sit back because
of this moral hazard thing, wewant you to feel too secure, which
some people in Washington, who Ithink are very hateful of Israel, are
saying, what would it have been? It would have been a night where
hundreds of missiles would have hit Israeliuh, civilian apartment buildings. And then
(23:30):
would that had somehow possibility for abig war. Nope, we would have
had the big one. So Ithink it would have It would have right,
it would have up the possibility thatgo straight to Tehran. So our
intervention actually cauterized the situation. Ilike that. I like that phrase that
(23:52):
it cauterized it, And that's exactlyright. So you just said, use
the phrase, has the war inguys of frase the relationship between US and
Israel. It seems like it hasto some degree. But to what degree?
Is that? A worrying degree fromour perspective? I mean, we
defend Israel for a reason, andBiden for very moral reasons, I would
(24:15):
say, And Biden took an actionthis weekend that I'm incredibly impressed by,
and then I didn't know about untilyou just said it. So where is
that relationship now? What should notjust so much? What should we expect
Biden to do? But what shouldBiden? Do? You know? It
was I'm writing this down because I'mgoing to say this. It was a
(24:37):
classic and clean defensive operation to supportthe state of Israel. It was clear,
classic, clean and clear because ofwars, anything but that, right,
right? And so in the earlydays of post October seventh, the
President came to the public defense ofIsrael, military support of Israel in a
legitimate manner to to stop Hamas's attacksin the immediate aftermath of that mass slaughter
(25:06):
where they were sending thousands of rocketsinto Israel. What has gone on since
then has converted into less of aimmediate defensive operation like we saw over the
weekend, and a sort of miniforever war that Israel's now engaged in,
and it's opened up the questions ofis this really the right approach, is
(25:26):
this really working? And that's wherethe fraying has occurred. And then the
costs are so high to the Palestinianpeople that that also eliminates our undermines.
That is, not eliminates, nevereliminate anything in Middle Ages right, undermines
the possibilities of a potential peace solution, which is what we're talking about,
which at its core, every Israelinational security expert and most Israeli prime ministers,
(25:52):
even once who were on the right, eventually came around to the reality
that the best way to have longterm peace and security for Israel is a
two states agreed upon by the Israelisand the Palestinians that ends their conflict.
That is it, and that's wherethe President has been trying to guide Israel.
Republicans are going to demagogue this andsay that is undermining Israel. I
(26:17):
don't think the president owes anyone anapology for how strong he is is defending
Israel's security. He showed it overright, and I think that his advocacy
for two states is rooted in thesame idea of advocacy for long term security
for Israel. And I'm writing thingsdown too as we go, so they'll
remember some of this in the future. So I agree Biden no one in
(26:41):
apology, and regardless of almost almostregardless of what approach he had taken,
I would say that the sitting presidentof the United States has to make these
extraordinarily awful, horrible, difficult decisions, you know, and we as the
people could maybe be a little moreunderstanding of that every now and then.
I don't want to turn those wordsback on me, because I would say
(27:02):
that we've had presidents who have justmade such awful decisions. But so politically
speaking, the more that Biden doesto support Israel, or to even appear
as though he's supporting Israel, thatputs him in a politically perilous position in
a re election year. So oneI would say, I want to give
him even more credit than you havefor having taken the actions that he has
(27:26):
in an election year. But talkabout that just a little bit, isn't
He's putting himself a little bit,you know, at risk here as well.
Yeah, the Democratic Party politics onIsrael are very hard right now,
Joe Biden comes from the old schoolbipartisan consensus, long standing support for Israel,
(27:48):
traditional APAC kind of line of support, of support, military assistance,
don't question a relationship. There arepeople like that still in government all over
the place, of course, Butwhen it comes to the voting public right
now, the initial days of thesupport for Israel in the Democratic Party has
really flipped in the other direction becauseof the mass casualties being taken by Palestinian
(28:14):
civilians. So we can explain itaway, we can define why and how
and what's occurred, but I wantto move that to the side. Just
the reality of Netsan Yahoo and hiswar right now, the costs are so
high to the Palestinian civilians, andthe lack of a advocacy for a two
state solution, a peaceful outcome hasreally diminished support for Israel within the Democratic
(28:38):
Party. I believe it's like aballoon. I believe it can pump right
back up if Israel were to movemore in those directions. Opponents will say
that why shouldn't they because that's badfor Israel and security. I would respectfully
disagree, but I think politically forBiden that means that puts him in a
(29:00):
minority position right now in the DemocraticParty onstanding and that's that's so that's an
issue. Now he's a national securityleader of former chairman of stand Formulations Committee.
He's going to do these things basedupon his security analysis, and he's
looking at what's happening on the ground, like increased hunger to the point where
potential famine. So we send ina peer to try to build a peer
(29:25):
and beat up the Israelies publicly movemore goods in right now saying they're going
to put in five hundred trucks aday. Right These are not inherently bad
for Israel, but this is thepresident responding to on the ground. I
should say this way, said Bets, on the ground reality he sees this
war is going in the wrong directionsubstantively politically. It also is helpful to
(29:48):
the president because he shows he actuallyis and I believe since the beginning has
been caring about the Palestinian people.But he's doing it now in a way
that's so public avert versus behind thescenes, which is what they did for
the first few months. That it'salso signal to the base of the party.
And this should matter that he istaking actions. Now, there are
(30:11):
people who are not going to givehim credit for it, but there are
a lot of people who are goingto watch and say, oh, Okay,
he is compassionate. And you know, they're all politicians, they're all
elected. They have to keep theirjobs if they're going to do the work.
And he's had a hard you know, he's been done a hard hand
balancing it because at the core,I think for Joe Biden and any American
(30:34):
president really at the end of theday, is you have to defer to
the sovereign government. He is choosingto do for his own security. The
big question in the fight on CapitolHill is do we have to go along
with that or not? And that'swhere we see the questions about aid to
Israel being blocked, argued against bysome conditions being applied to protect civilian life
(30:59):
all that. That's where the debatenow is. And I think the Biden
team frankly benefits from that. Youknow, you worked on the Hill,
you know, you know how itworks. I didn't work on the Hill,
but I know how it works.Yeah, caught back up. I
think it works quite well for theBiden administration to have people on Capitol Hill,
threatening it gives a little more oomph. And the big moment I'll pause
(31:22):
after this. The big moment camewhen Chuck Schumer, also of the Biden
milk on Israel stuff, American Jewfrom Brooklyn, longtime deep supporter of Israel,
he made a speech on the floorwhere he basically said that Netsan Yahoo
and his war along with Hamas areproblems for peace and that they need new
(31:42):
elections in Israel, AKA, theyneed to change the way they're doing business.
And that was Chuck Schumer. Soyou can tell at this point in
the Democratic Party there's not a lotof patients for the kind of execution of
the war and lack of a visionfor peace that we we've seen well.
And I think that I like thisis probably a good place for us to
(32:04):
wrap up. Really like how youjust laid that out. I know there
are people in the Democratic Party whoare very unhappy with Biden's execution of this
or what they perceived sometimes to beBiden's execution of our position in all of
this. But to the point,to your point, and you just made
it very clearly, the Palinestinian peoplewould be in a much worse situation right
now, if Biden wasn't influencing Netanyawho the way that he was, if
(32:30):
he wasn't engaged the way that heis, I really believe this. For
people to argue that somehow it's Biden'sfault, right that Israel responded to a
massive terrorist attack committed against the civilians, right, it's a total misread of
whose fault it is for provoking thisfight. I've been saying that the misread
(32:52):
it's a mythread for like ignoring thatIran just sent hundreds of bonds. I
can disagree on how the response,but don't ignore cause and effect, and
don't ignore the obvious, because Iwould say the same about October seventh.
You know, Hamas attacked civilians.It's like flying a plane into an office
(33:12):
building in downtown New York City.They attacked civilians. They didn't attack,
you know, a munitions dump ora military base, or they attacked children
and young people and so, andthat was traumatized in Israeli society. Yes,
still holding hostages there and not givingthem up. And for the Israeli
(33:34):
people, they are living in atrauma themselves. And the idea that somehow
their government would not respond and it'sJoe Biden's fault, is the American arrogance.
Well, I'll just say that,Yeah, I agree with you.
That is such a self absorbed Americanmindset that ignores reality of what the Middle
East and other countries are all about. Right, we take our own perspective,
(33:58):
our own battles with each other.We think that the world is revolving
around that. I would have hasAn argued it's a colonialist mindset from her.
I don't really disagree with that nowthat you use the word, But
you know, I just think Ithink I hate to always end up on
the political but that's just where weare sometimes. I think that the biggest
(34:19):
issue for Joe Biden is not thathe isn't doing the right thing, because
when I listened to you explain itto me, I think I'm reassured that
he's doing the right thing. Ithink that politically he's putting himself in a
precarious position. And normally I wouldn't, you know, I wouldn't care as
much about a democratic So that Itried to be honest with you, But
(34:40):
our democracy is at risk without JoeBiden running a successful campaign, our democracy
is at risk, and so I'malways watching through that veil as well.
But I agree with you. Theidea of trying to blame Joe Biden for
something Hamast did and then the waythat the you know, the Israelis responded
to it is just ridiculous. It'sself serving, is what it is.
(35:04):
It's self serving. The people whoreact that way have a purpose behind it,
and it advances their purpose. That'sright, that's right. That's me
and I appreciate your saying that.I do believe that the political risks are
high, but the decision that hemade and that he made even over the
(35:25):
weekend just I know I'm extending it, but he put all that aside,
beside the frame issues, he putaside the frustrations over the execution of the
war in Gaza, and he wentback to core American principles, which is
that we defend our allies and ourdemocracies and our democratic allies when they're under
(35:49):
assault, unjustly in particular, butwhen they're under assault and there are allies,
we stand by them. And thatis an amazing level of integrity because
it would have been politically pretty youknow, interestingly easy, in a very
narrow sense to not do it.Of course it would have been a ship
storm afterwards, but he stood byhis values and those are American values.
(36:13):
And I'm going to open the aperture. I know I'm going way too.
I'm going to say this. Thoseare the values that are at their core
extraordinarily different, significantly opposite from DonaldTrump, who has constantly said he wants
to give Ukraine to the Russians andjoins a NATO. This is it.
This is the difference what just happenedthis weekend. This is the difference right
(36:36):
there. I'm okay with you wrappingit up with that, very much so,
because that's another great lesson, agreat point for people to think about.
When we see what's unfolding in theworld. It matters who's in the
White House, you know it,extremely It really matters who is in the
White House. So Joel, thankyou so much. I know things now
that I did not know when westarted this conversation, and it was that
(36:58):
last thing you've got in your wrapup statement just now. That's why you
and I, in spite of ourpolitical differences or policy differences, get along
so well, honestly, and whyI so value your friendship and your companionship
in this battle to defeat Donald Trumpand preserve democracy in America. Joe Grubin,
national security expert, strategists, formerDeputy Assistant Secretary of State. I
(37:22):
appreciate you being here. I'm JenniferHorn you're listening to. Is it just
me? Or have we all lostour minds
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