Looking Ahead to New Hampshire: With Guests Mike Madrid and Jim Merrill

Mike Madrid, GOP Political Consultant, and Jim Merrill, attorney and former New Hampshire campaign manager, join us to discuss predictions for the New Hampshire primary and the important distinction between voting to support a candidate and voting against a candidate.

Jim Merrill: @JimMerrillNH
Mike Madrid: @madrid_mike

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/is-it-just-me-or-have-we-all-lost-our-minds--5869817/support.

Episode Transcript

(00:02):
Is it just me? Or havewe all lost our minds? It's a
question I've been asking myself on repeatfor the last eight years, and I
know I'm not alone in that.Is it the politics, is it the
culture? Or am I just gettingold? Hi? I'm Jennifer Horn and
I'm a former Republican strategist and partyleader turned independent sanity activists. I decided

(00:24):
to do this podcast so we couldexplore these questions. I'll bring experts to
the table from politics and media andculture. We'll have road insightful conversations with
the clear goal of getting to thebottom of it all. One way or
another. We've all lost our minds, and I hope you'll join us on
the journey to find them again.Hi, this is Jennifer Horn and you're

(00:47):
listening to Is it just me?Or have we all lost our minds?
We've reached that point in the politicalcycle, the election cycle this year,
where everybody kind of feels like they'relosing their minds, no matter what's of
the aisle you're on or to whatdegree you're participating. We call this crazy
season in politics. And that's regardlessof whether there's a Donald Trump on the

(01:10):
ballot. Or not. That's justthe way life is. And a lot
of you guys know my background isout of New Hampshire, the first in
the nation primary state. Those ofus who have lived our political lives in
New Hampshire take a certain amount ofpride, not arrogance, i would say,
but a certain amount of pride thatour state holds the position that it
does. We take it seriously.One of the things I've always said about

(01:32):
New Hampshire is that our citizens areunusually engaged politically. They are informed,
they pay attention, they take itseriously. The majority of the people who
live in New Hampshire really feel anobligation to the nation in the way that
they participate in politics, and it'ssomething I've always really been proud of to

(01:52):
be a part of it. Sotoday we're going to talk a little bit
about New Hampshire's position in this processand then move on from this and talk
about what's happening up there this year. Right now, the primary in New
Hampshire is less than two weeks awaynow, and I think I have the
two best people in the world totalk about this. The first one is

(02:13):
a guy that we've had here morethan once and you all love him.
I know you follow him on Twitter. He's super smart when it comes to
the numbers. It keeps us informed. It's my pleasure to have back with
us again, Mike Madrid. Howyou doing, Mike, I'm doing great.
Happy New York, Jennifer. It'salways great to be with you.
Happy New Year. It's great tobe with you. And because people were
on a podcast and no one cansee what you know, can see the

(02:37):
screen the way I can. Iam in love with the new paint in
the backdrop and the Lincoln portrait,the whole thing. It looks awesome.
Mike. Yeah, thanks, Itry to, Yeah, thank you.
It's great. I love it.I love it. I think it looks
terrific. I know a lot ofpeople follow you who also follow me,

(02:58):
and they should track you down onYouTube or something and enjoy the scenery.
And our second guest is somebody I'vebeen wanting to get on with us for
a really long time. You know, I always talk about the smart guys.
I like having the smart people herewho actually have some experience and knowledge
and what we're talking about. Andif Jim is a guy I've known what
feels like forever at this point.He is. He's as expert as they

(03:21):
come in New Hampshire, not I'mnot going to say New Hampshire politics,
because his political knowledge and experience isso much bigger and broader than that.
He has worked on the national leadershipteam with the Marcro Rubio and with Mitt
Romney, and a lot more thanthat. Jim, I'm going to ask
you to share a little bit moreof your background with us in a minute.

(03:42):
But Jim Merrill, it was thewas the New Hampshire I want to
manager, and manager doesn't sound likea big enough the big enough for Jim.
He was the He was the guywho was in charge of these campaigns
for Marco Rubio and for Mitt Romney, and he knows president to politics inside
and out better than anybody else Iknow, Jim Merrill, who's also an

(04:03):
attorney at Bernstein Sure, which iswhere he is based these days. Jim,
thank you so much for coming inand being part of it on Jennifer,
thanks so much. I appreciate Ialways appreciate the optunity to talk to
you and see you. And unfortunatelymy office isn't as nice as Mike's.
Right now, the middle of aredecoration that's like the deal with that.
But now it's a it's a treatbeing here with you and I look forward

(04:26):
conversation. Well, I appreciate it. And we're lucky on podcasts we don't
have to worry about room raider.Yeah, you know the great white skype
room they have on Twitter where weall we all end up in competitions who's
got the best backdrop. So,Jail, I want you. You're going
to explain this better than I canright now. I just you know,
we just coexisted in the same spacefor so long. I don't even think

(04:46):
about things like titles, honestly,But you know, Romney and Rubio,
you were the guy. You werethe one that that you know got them.
You know, I don't. Idon't want to describe it in my
own word and then offend somebody.You tell me, you tell our audience
a little bit more about your background. So, actually, my presidential work
goes back to two thousand, whenI worked as George W. Bush's state

(05:11):
wine field director for the Genro electionhere in two thousand, which is your
recall, we won New Hampshire byjust over seven thousand votes, delivered four
electoral votes, and that it happenedto be the margin of victory nationally.
So I was with him both ofhis cycles, and then I started to
admit in late two thousand and fiveI was chairman of was Pack in New
Hampshire and that was six. Iwas his campaign manager seven eight and then

(05:34):
I just never stopped working with him. Basically I was his senior advisor General
Consultant for the twenty twelve cycle andthen we'll say I did the same with
Southern Rubio. It was his GCfor New Hampshire, New England under this
twenty sixteen cycles. So I've beenaround a little bit. I've worked with
some good people and you know,there's no better place to do it in

(05:55):
New Hampshire. Yeah, you makeyourself sound older than you really are,
but you're your experience is unbelievable.And you know, I remember, really,
as you talk about the original ofthe two thousand Bush election, it
was his reelection that really introduced meand my family to what politics in New
Hampshire is all about. I rememberdriving the kids over to scam And Farms

(06:17):
to see him speak during his reelection. Bill and I and we ended up
having to parke like a mile downthe road, We're walking the kids through
traffic, being very irresponsible with ourchildren's lives. But we got there and
somehow got right up front and oneof my kids got to shake the hand
of the President of the United States. And like, to me, that

(06:38):
just sort of encapsulates what First inthe Nation primary is all about. Like,
well, we say that you getup close and personal with the candidates
or with the sitting president, youdo. And I want your perspective on
that, Jim to get started here, like what does that mean? What
is the value when we talk abouthow accessible candidates are and have to be

(07:00):
in order to succeed in New Hampshire. Yeah, the New Hampshire experience is
one I like to use the wordintimacy. It's a very intimate experience,
right, I mean you can't unlikeother states that happen later in the process
where you're able to you know,traditionally ne larger events, you do more
paid media. We're kind of ableto you know, not hide to be

(07:21):
hype a position yourself behind that messaging. You know, the traditional of the
Hampshire campaign, You've got to reallyengage at a grassroots level. You've got
to you know, you build upto the larger events. Now I put
Trump aside, we can even talkabout that experience in twenty sixteen and half
he came to be the way hewas. But but other than that,
I mean, you weren't really haveto do kind of a level of grassroots

(07:43):
and really hand to hand the campaignagain New Hampshire. That takes you outside
of the bubble, that forces candidatesto be their the most authentic self,
because the voters have a real,real good nose for candidates who maybe don't
aren't as authentic, you know,and you can tell pretty quickly there are
certain candidates that just love the NewHampshire experience. Chris Christy loves the New

(08:03):
Hampshire experience right race as it alwayshas John McCain did, I mean there
are others. Some tolerate it,they do the best they can, but
they don't necessarily love it because againit demands something that not Edward has to
give. And then some just don'tlike it at all. And tip ofally,
those campaigns don't do very well here, and we've got examples of those
as well. Yeah, and let'swell before we get into that right away,

(08:26):
Mike, I want to jump overto you you've been working in politics
based in California for most of yourlife as well. And you know,
at some point I keep talking aboutother people and how long they've been in
politics and how old they are andstuff like that. Someday I'll have to
talk about my own age. Itserves me right. But but Mike,
you have, you know, thisdepth of experience also. And I don't

(08:48):
know if you've ever been to NewHampshire, but you know, talk talk
to me a little bit of justabout you know what Jim just said.
You know, this idea of youknow, voters being up close and personal
and being able to kind of sniffout the authentic guys and the and the
nutso authentic guys. And you're lookingat numbers all the time and polling trends
and things like that. How muchdoes what Jim talk was talking about is

(09:11):
really you know, it influences thosenumbers. You know, how does that
interact? Well, I'm surprised Jimand I have never crossed passed because my
first major you know, experience wason the Bush campaign in two thousand as
well. So I guess we're stilla contemporary it's just on different points of
the country. Look, New Hampshireholds obviously a very special place in presidential

(09:37):
history and in presidential campaigns because ofwhat you guys are talking about. And
there is something very extraordinary about people'sability to meet and talk to folks,
and you know, you hear storiesall the times of people meeting somebody just
randomly at a diner coming in likethat's part of the New Hampshire expirence and
shaking the hands to the president orfuture presidential aspirants, and people not a

(10:00):
ready to ask them tough questions tothe small town all setting like I'm going
to ask the questions on the lineof you know, millions of people.
And I think that's a it's abeautiful thing about democracy that I think New
Hampshire is uniquely positioned to do,especially at this time of extraordinary change.
And what I mean by that is, you know, Tip O'Neil was famous
for saying that all politics is local. I think I think there's probably insturmalitable

(10:24):
evidence to suggest that that's really nolonger the case, and it's all politics
really nationalized, and that makes NewHampshire even more important. I mean,
I think it is because you doget this actual look at people in New
Hampshire is very aware of of itsrole at its place, and it's more
than happy to upend the national narrativethat's being driven simply for the sake of

(10:48):
saying, let's take a longer lookat this candidate and that I mean,
I'm not too sure this is theright person at the right time, and
let's set them back a little bitand force him to kind of slug this
out a little bit more. Andagain that that kind of strategic decision making
is actually the way voter psychology worksin a place like New Hampshire with their
person in the nation status. Youdon't see that really anywhere else. And
I think that, you know,at a time when we used to I

(11:09):
grew up in a generation where thebest voter contact, as we would say,
was the in person voter contact.And I'm not too sure I believe
or subscribe to that anymore. Andlet me give you a really specific example.
The two candidates in the Republican primarythat have gone to all of the
counties in Iowa, Ron DeSantis andVivek ra Maslamia. Apparently Vivek has done

(11:31):
that too. They're not looking todo particularly well. That used to be
a very important part of the Iowacaucuses. That's right. Organizing in the
caucuses is just not what it usedto be because they's just not that much
of a concern about it, inlarge part because our elections draw are driven
by a national narrative. They're notdriven by about your policy suppositions on any

(11:52):
given issue anymore, or whether Iwant to go out and have a beer
with you. It's really designed bywho's going to be the biggest, most
adamant, most strident cultural warrior,especially the Republican primary, on any set
of issue or issues real or manufacture. And so that changes, That's changed
the calculus of frankly, of ourrepresentative government. And I think it's why

(12:13):
in the Hampshire is even more importantthan it always has been. I love
that that's your perspective, not justfrom outside, but from all the way
across the other side of the country. And I think one of the important
things just to touch on most peopledon't realize because I've gotten you know,
Jim U two. I'm sure likewe get pushed back every every four years

(12:33):
on why New Hampshire you're not asyou know, you're not as ethnically diverse,
you're not as you know this orthat, or you're just small.
And I think there's two things.One is most people don't realize that to
some degree, we have no choice. It is written into our state's constitution
that we must do this, thatwe must hold our primary, you know,

(12:54):
at least a certain amount of timebefore any other similar I think similar
is the word that they use primaryor voting, you know, election event.
And so you know, the fightfor it isn't just it's it's a
constitutional fight for us. But it'salso to your point, Mike, a
lot of the things that you said, you know, when you live there
and you're surrounded by it and youbecome part of it, we really do

(13:16):
see the value of it. Andit's interesting to me. And as most
folks know, No, I'm notin New Hampshire anymore, but Jim,
this year the Democrats have kind of, you know, just to be a
little funny, but they've got alittle too big for their bridges in my
opinion, and they decided that they'regoing to do things their way regardless.

(13:37):
And but the Secretary of State inNew Hampshire is holding the Democratic primary on
primary day regardless. Is that right, Yeah, that's exact. You know,
look in New Hampshire, the stateholds up. It's not you know,
the party doesn't declare the primary.The state does. And as you
went out state line Trump's and soit's unfortun the Democrats did what they did

(14:01):
through the DNC, and like atPresident Biden, I mean he you know,
in the end, he's the onethat made the call. The DNC
carried out his wishes to have SouthCarolina go first. And so it's too
bad. And I think one ofthe problems is Democrats in New Hampshire sought
not to push back by some ofthe narratives that developed in the last decade

(14:22):
or so about you know, theracial diversity of the electorate at New Hampshire
and things of that nature. Andso you have a primary here. However,
there's a debate yesterday between Dean Phillipsand Mary and Williamson. So it's
you know, we speaks to thewhole idea that everybody gets a chance,
everyone gets to be heard in NewHampshire, you know, right, everyone

(14:46):
gets a chance. The threshold toget on the ballot is a thousand dollars
on the signature, that's all.It takes. It's not a big petition
process. You know, we talkedabout the campaigns about ballot access and making
sure you've got access. In NewHampshire, the access is I mean,
you'd be hard put not to meetthe threshold, and so I think,
you know, so that I thinkthat's that's diminished the processes not a little

(15:07):
bit, and that you know,the Biden folks have kind of taken the
starch out of this on their side, but there's still a race underway,
and I think there's enough concern inthe White House that they've got a write
in effort going to writing Joe Biden. All the major Democratic officeholders in New
Hampshire are promoting it, and Ithink because they don't want to see him

(15:28):
and be embarrassed like we've seen priorcycles where an incumbent gets embarrassed and maybe
has a tough go of the thea Hampshire primary. And so it's kind
of a shadow campaign running behind that. On the Republican side. You know,
at least you know there is activityup here. We've got multiple candits
each week, and we can talka little bit more about how I think

(15:48):
this cycle. You know, atleast from Dicky Haley's perspective is proving that
I'm set in New Hampshire campaigning thetraditional mans away is paying dividends for her
and has her right condistance two weeksout before we quite move into the numbers
and the candidates and this psycle,I'll just say real quickly, one of

(16:11):
the things that I have always genuinelyhonored about the first in the Nation primary
and that I really love about itis as a mom. You know,
we raise our children. We hopefullyare all trying to raise our children to
believe and understand that they can doanything. They can be anything, you
know, and we want to buildtheir confidence and and you know, and

(16:32):
there you know, expand their intellectualand inspirational horizons. And you know,
what do you want to do?You could? Anybody can be president.
You know. It's this, Ithink this really strengthening kind of ideal that
we try to teach kids and whenwe look at New Hampshire, that's what
it is to me. Anybody cancome to New Hampshire. To your point,
Jim, write a check for athousand dollars and be on the ballot

(16:55):
and then it's up to them.You can spend a year campaigning and getting
to know every single voter in thestate, or you can just you know,
sit on your thumbs and wait andjust have fun because your name is
on the ballot. But the truthis anybody can have that opportunity when New
Hampshire is first, you know,it is a small state where voters are
accessible and the candidates become accessible tothem. You know, I just I

(17:18):
really feel like part of what it'sabout is like is part of the American
the American message, the American dream, and I like that. I think
that's strong. I would hate tolose that. I could agree with you
more. It's a great level orit rode right. It's a process that
can uplift you if you attack itthe right way, and it can humble
you, as it has humbled manypeople. And going to Mike's point about

(17:41):
working on the Bush campaign in twothousand, we were certainly humbled here in
the primary, right right, gofrom you know, basically July of ninety
nine to fifty percent fifty five percent, then lose by almost twenty six months
later. That was a humbling.But the good news is New Hampshire made
Georgia of Wish a better candidate,which can you tell you and went on

(18:03):
to win. From there, youlearned some valuable lessons. Some do some
don't. He certainly did and itmade him a better candidate and better president.
And I love that about it.And I mean you would think that
the campaigning would make any candidate abetter servant, you know, once they
assuming they win the office that they'rethat they're seeking. But we hear those
kinds of stories out of New Hampshireall the time. And you look at

(18:25):
John McCain, who you know,could have easily lost New Hampshire and it
was as it wasn't. It wasn'tthe money in his campaign, you know,
account that that won that election forhim. It was it was him.
It was the energy, it wasyou know, it was what he
brought to it personally and which wasa very different, you know, a
different story than a lot of otherswho have won. I've always had a

(18:45):
thing for John McKean as well becauseof in in large part because of that.
So Mike, let's start talking aboutsome of the numbers here. You
know, Jim just alluded to,you know what's been going now with Nikki
Heeley. We have to be honestwith ourselves and say that for her,
she did just have a large influxof money put in the race behind her,
with AFP coming in and you know, endorsing her and getting involved in

(19:08):
the race. I forget the lastnumber I saw, but it's in the
millions, and that goes a longway. Million dollars goes a long way
in a state like New Hampshire,by the way, which is another thing
that makes it accessible, and youknow, kind of a leveler, as
you said, Jim, but startwith us, Mike, start me with
kind of the national numbers, andbecause what we see nationally and what we

(19:30):
see in New Hampshire is very different. All of a sudden with you know,
Trump is still way ahead, andall of a sudden in these last
three weeks, really Nikki Haley isgetting very close. One of the polls
just out that we that I readabout today has her within I think six
or seven points. But there's anotherlegitimate poll as well that has shows a

(19:52):
different story, shows her further behindstill. So talk to me about the
numbers, Mike. Where do theycome from and how much credit do we
give them, whether it's New Ympshireanywhere else. So there's a couple of
unique things I think about this electioncycle that we're looking at. The first
is you have Donald Trump, who'srunning as a former president, right,
so it's certainly not a re electioneffort. But you have a candidate who

(20:15):
is very well known, not justamongst the primary voter's p election day voters.
Then you've got an incumbent president.This is relatively unprecedented, I think,
in modern memory, and it instructsthe way I think we need to
look at the voter modeling and wherevoter pinion is at. Your most national
polling has had Trump sitting at abouta fifty to fifty five fifty eight percent

(20:37):
support range amongst Republicans for some time. You've had desantists who'd hit kind of
about a year ago, around rightprior to his launch, he was sitting
at about a load to mid twentiesrange when he was viewed very much as
the alternative to Trump. Hailey wassitting down the low mid single digits.
With Scott and Christy and kind ofothers. They've essentially kind of shifted position

(21:00):
in that timeframe. We can talkabout that in just a little bit,
but as it relates to Donald Trump, I think if you look at most
of the polling, and you lookat where people are genuinely at in other
words, not just looking at askingwhat we call a force race question,
which is who are you supporting wellwhat issues are being driven and then put
a the context of running against JoeBiden, Trump's range with the Republican base

(21:26):
is really genuinely more than mid tohigh sixties as opposed to the low mid
fifties where it's sitting abstractly right nowin Poland. Now, this is both
very strong and it's also a signof weakness. Is from my perspective,
First of all, to have acandidate, Republican candidate as showing those support
levels even mid to high fifties withthis size of the field is an extraordinarily

(21:49):
strong sign of a candidate who isdominating the primaries at this point in time.
And again I think he's stronger thathis Poland is showing amongst republic but
it is considerably weaker even if itis in the high sixties, low seventies,
mid seventies see weaker bel Welles.He was at the same time in
the twenty twenty psyche. When itjust turns twenty twenty, theas were just

(22:14):
about to begin. He had reallyconsolidated the Republican base. We're talking ninety
percent support levels even a little bithigher. So there has been some weakening
in the base. No matter howyou look at it. We can argue
about whether you know that's a genuinereflection or not. I think it's a
fair argument either way. But forthe moment, we're looking at four years
ago when he was elected, andeven eight years ago he was. He

(22:37):
was, you know, stronger intwenty twenty than he was in either twenty
sixteen at this point in time andor now presence day. So what does
all that mean? Well, whatI'm looking for is looking for alternative lanes
in the Republican Party. Is therethe traditional conservative moderate split? Is there

(22:59):
issues made that isn't being addressed,And the truth of the matter is they're
really that doesn't seem to be atleast by any standard of metrics. And
the only reason I'm hedging a littlebit is because Donald Trump has really led
us to extraordinary times where sometimes we'lllooking at it conventional is to find things
we're not even short questions or toask to find right. So really what

(23:22):
the question becomes is is there noTrump, never Trump, anti Trump laying
that is big enough to actually createsome movement. The only candidate who is
genuinely reflecting and I don't even thinkit's that pure an anti Trump position is
Chris Christy. Right most, there'sstill this third of the Republican electric that
is concerned about viability with Donald Trump. They're worried about They like him,

(23:45):
they like his policies, they likehis style, but they're also very concerned
about whether or not the legal stop, or whether there's Trump fatigue, or
they're just rationally looking at the sayingI really want to beat Biden. Who's
the best person to be I'm nottoo sure Trump is that person anymore.
But once Trump becomes to nominee,they'll fall back into line rather quickly right

(24:07):
now, and that's really I thinkthe right way to look at this is
not and we saw that in twentytwenty with those voters as well. Yeah,
there is that sort of insidery peoplewho follow politics all the time,
people who are listening to this podcast, more sophisticated consumer of news, people
who watch and listen to the dailyevents of what's happening in politics. Now

(24:29):
again, this number is it's mostof these Republican voters, as we know,
will fall back into line. Theywill, they'll say their hold or
nose, but they're really the choicesbetween Trump and Biden. It's a no
brainer. They're gonna be with Trumpall day long. The question is,
as what we refer to back inthe Leaking project day is four years ago,
as this ban in line number fourto seven percent, is that still

(24:52):
there? Is that still an operablenumber? Is it smaller? Is it
bigger? My strong suspicions are thenumbers actually bigger and maybe considerably, probably
about double that size, which isa death not for the Republican nominee unless
they can pick up some other votessomewhere. And he is it's right wordship,
that's happening with black voters and Hispanicvoters. He's right, very real.

(25:17):
But for the moment, the weaknessis in the traditional coalition that he's
built and worked with and that RepublicansI'm worked with. Is he's very strong,
not as strong as I think hewould like to be in the Republican
primary. But this stuff that hasbeen happening to him this post twenty twenty
January sixth election narrative is taking atoll it is, it is hurting him

(25:38):
in significant ways. And you arestill seeing this twenty five thirty five percent
of Republicans saying it's not that Idon't like the guy, it's that I'm
concerned about viability. And you willbegin to see that number consolidate as he
starts to sweep up these primaries regardlessof what happens in New Hampshire, and
so quickly. Then I'm talking aboutthe long wind up here. But look,

(26:03):
I think Trump will do very wellin Iowa, and I think you
will probably if New Hampshire. NewHampshire rites are who we expect and hope
they are to be. It's eitherclose with Haley coming close with meaning single
digits, or she may pop themin the jaw and knock them off and
she wins it by a handful ofpoints. But even if she wins,
I have to remember the South Carolinaprimary, her state is only ten and

(26:26):
seven ten days afterwards. Yeah,Truman's pulling commandually, and that's where I
was going to go with this.Good for your mind, She's not likely
to be able to deliver her ownhome state. No, or ye know,
we like just said the beauty ofNew Hampshire is also its greatest weakness.
It's an exceptional state in an exceptionalplace, with an exceptional role that

(26:49):
everybody understands and participates in that's notreflective of the American electorate like at all.
And I say that as a Californy, which is the least accessible space.
I mean, God bless you inNew Hampshire. Like no California ever
meets a presidential candale ever, likefootball, you would even try to fight
traffic wherever it was at and tryto get here at that moment. So

(27:11):
we don't, we don't. Wedon't have that understanding or that experience at
all. It is exceptional. Itis something important that we have New Hampshire
as this first in the nation place. But that exception I think is becoming
even more exceptional in this time andthat actually a Trump loss could actually help

(27:32):
consolidate the base just as fast asa Trump victory in New Hampton. And
we've seen that with Trump, thatthat dynamic with Trump so often. So
Jim, let's take what Mike justsaid and bring it down, you know,
down to ground level in New Hampshire. There are a couple of things

(27:53):
that he said that I think areinteresting that you know, he's talking about,
you know, the kind of theimpact that Trump has these races.
And he used the word question acouple of times. And one of the
things that's really struck me throughout thiswhole past twelve months is as people have
covered this primary, this Republican primary, I am struck by the fact that
they keep treating it like it's anyold primary, you know, especially the

(28:17):
folks on TV, and they talkabout you know, they talk about the
numbers and who's ahead and who's behindand who's and I feel like they sort
of miss the degree to which Trumpmakes everything not normal, not like everything
else. And then also, letme throw in here the you know a
little bit about Nikki Heally. I'vebeen thinking looking at her, thinking she's

(28:37):
not gonna win Iowa. I don'tknow how she wins Iowa. So I've
got to take that off the table. She is creeping up on Trump.
She's in a much stronger position nowthan I ever gave her credit for being
able to achieve. But if shedoesn't win Iowa, and she doesn't win
New Hempshire, and then the nextdate is, you know, is her
whole and nobody thinks that there's achance of her winning there, Like what

(29:02):
is the value of being this closeand having come so, you know,
climbed as high in the latter ashe has, but not winning if she
does. I feel like if Haleydoesn't win New Hampshire, then she's sort
of out because if Trump wins NewHampshire and Niowa and South Carolina, like,
where does she go? Tell me, talk to me a little bit

(29:25):
more about her position in New Hampshireand what it could or couldn't turn into.
Well, look, you make greatpoints, Jennifer and that, and
I think there is a Trump effectas we know now about eight years nine
going nine years and running. Imean, look, in twenty sixteen,
Donald Trump took the laws of politicalphysics as we knew with them, and
he beat them, right, Imean, he white and he continues to

(29:48):
you in many ways, and sohe came into this cycle as quasi incumbent.
I think Mike spoke to that.I mean, this is really unusual
where most recent president you know,lost in twenty twenty is not going back
again. And yet you know it'scompetition, and so he's been able to
wrong about him incumbent. You know, I mean he's had a very night

(30:11):
at least from an event standpoint,right, He's thought about an event a
month here in new Hamshire, alittle more in Iowa now because he can.
I mean, his his support hasbeen very static. It's it's not
spiking, it's not dropping. Andso you have this remaining scrung of folks
competing to be the non Trump candidate. And Hayley has done a really nice

(30:32):
job and as I referenced before,taking the New Hampshire experience and allowed and
build a foundation in which she couldbuild a catch of winning campaign here in
state. She's in striking distance nowand she did that by putting the time
in on the ground of that withgreat debate performances, and that all culminated
and earning Christin News support which hasgiven her a shot in the arm beer

(30:56):
down the stretch. Having said allof that, I think there's a chance
she could win New Hampshire. Ithink. But it's still even with all
this efforts, Like you climb thatmountain, you get to the top and
you realize there's another ridge behind it. You scale and Trump is still king
of that mountain. And so youknow, but to the point where she
goes after this. I mean,you know, look in the end,

(31:17):
I think everyone's hoping for that lightningin the bottle where you wind New Hampshire
and people saying, well, Gd'sit's you know, we want to try
something different here, and so's let'sgo with Haley. I think realistically,
Trump cluded. You know, it'snot hard to see Trump winning New Hampshire,
winning iislew winning New Hampshire and effectivelycalling the cycle the day after New

(31:37):
Hampshire. I think, you know, people are hedging bets about potential prosecutions
dropping off the ballot, questionable whohas the most delegates will be the likely
you know, number two there.But then I think all bets are off
if something like that were to occur. I think Haley's always been the underdog.
She's cam't baiting like an underdog.I'd give her at it, you

(32:00):
know, I think she has achance here. But even then, it's
hard because Mike points out South Carolinais you know, it's not the state
that Nikki Haley governed a decade ago. It's right, it's none of none
of us are what we were adecade ago, you know, I mean,
like politically or otherwise but just theway of my beard. You know,

(32:22):
I cover my gray up and it'snot in my beard. But but
but there's been a lot of changein the GOP in the last ten years.
And you know, one of thelittle things that I'm struck by is
I remember in sixteen driving around,you know, and I was chairman at
that time, and just drive aroundthe states all the committee meetings and the
phone banks and all that sort ofthing, and thinking to myself, I

(32:44):
know the posters are all saying thatTrump's the guy, that he's a hand,
but I don't see it. Therewere almost no yard signs for Trump
almost, like all these little thingsthat we always say they don't really mean
anything, but we're used to seeingthem, we're used to having them around.
And what I didn't realize back then, or what I just didn't make
the connection out of, well,there were no yard sides for anybody in

(33:05):
twenty sixteens. Like everyone had abandonedtheir yard signs. Things like the little
things that that you know kind ofyou know, I not impressed you,
but like make an impact on you. And all, you know, everything
about Trump was different everything back then. But talking about Nikki Haley is how
much. And Mike, I'm gonnaask you to answer this question also from
your perspective. She, like allCanada, she had kind of a big

(33:28):
faux pas. Recently she had shedid not do well when someone said to
her what caused the Civil War?And I was I remained surprised that that
that sort of died off when itdid, Like it wasn't immediate. She
really had to you know, workto get it, you know, off
the out of the news cycle.But I thought that she handled it so

(33:49):
badly that it could have potentially beenthe end, could have really blown things
up. So the question is,you know, for you Jim, like,
how is that received on the groundin New Hampshire? And Chris came
out For folks who don't know,chrisn Nunu is the governor in New Hampshire,
has been for four I think he'sat a sport or he's not running
again and recently came out and endorsedNikki Heley. But he's always been a

(34:13):
very strong influencer in politics in NewHampshire. And so the question kind of
becomes does his endorsement override the kindof mistake she made with that question?
You know, how much does hisendorsement really carry, and tell you how
about how that question was received,you know, on the ground in New
Hampshire. And then, Mike,I'm going to ask you to think about

(34:34):
her how she answered that question,and you know, what sort of impact
does that have on the numbers nationallybecause it happened in New Hampshire, but
the whole world heard it. SoJim, let's start with you. Yeah.
Sure, I don't see any evidencethat it really made a difference here
in terms of I've not seen topenetrate and become part of the narrative.
You know. I suspect if wecould really get some real time day over

(35:00):
a period of a you know,a week kind of during that window,
maybe you saw it slow some momentumbecause it wasn't there wasn't so much the
outcry on the ground, but therewere a lot of national media around it
and created an echo chamber. Soand something that she had to then address
a couple of different times. ButI don't have any sense that it fundamentally

(35:22):
caused people to step back. Imean from my personal perspective. You know,
look, she's a woman of colorwho when she was governor took down
the Confederate flag under intense and uglyopposition. You know, it was,
you know, and she's if youfly it out a net and you're doing
these you know, this type ofcampaigning and sometimes you say things that we
she could reel back in and saydifferently, But I don't see evidence of

(35:44):
it hurting her here. You know, this Nedo adorsement significant. I know
Democrats tried to downplay it when youhave it. Wow, look at all
these congressions. You know, heendorsed Chuck Morrison state US Senate race last
year and he lost there and someothers down ballot. But I think the
benefit I think son New's done thereally remarkable job. The first time I've
seen a governor do this, basicallycampaigning with the entire ticket that you know

(36:07):
Trump right, they promote their candidacies, but to promote the primary, the
process along the way, and sokind of building momentum and excitement about his
endorsement. I would say that hisendorsement of Haley has been far more impactful
than the Reynolds endorsement of DeSantis inIowa, in part because he's willing to
take his message to national TV anddo meet the press and do this week

(36:30):
and Dough Hewitt and others kind ofin the conservative sphere and the mainstream media
to really begin to get it rattlingaround. Right. I think it's help,
didn't hear. I think it's helped, you know, give her a
sense of, hey, she canwin, and then kind of pull votes
away from Chris Christi and among undecided. So I just couldn't tell you whether

(36:52):
it's going to be enough right now. I think the jury's out. She's
in strict and I think where shestarted in March, which was nowhere,
that's all should get asked for.And you know, you just sent to
Santas and he's a great example ofwhat you said earlier, Jim of New
Hampshire being kind of a test ofauthenticity. I think he's a great example
of that. I don't think Ithink that the reason that he really sort

(37:13):
of crashed and burned in New Hampshireand has abandoned ship there a while ago
is an authenticity issue. I thinkI think he really struggles not just in
front of the camera, but infront of the people, and and so
he decided to go all in inIowa. And to your point, he's
got the governor's endorsement there, buthe's behind, he's he's as far down
in Iowa as he is in NewHampshire. So I that's I think that's

(37:36):
an interesting example that we'll be talkingabout a couple of cycles from now,
as we are continuing to talk aboutwhy we think New Hampshire is so important.
So Mike, I'm going to passit off to you now as well,
and at the same time as thatyou answered, we're already starting here.

(37:58):
I'm curious what you think about thingslike googlenatorial endorsements. How important are
they or how influential are they reallyin the long run. As well?
Well, let me say as itrelates to her fortunes on on what you
know said last week, I think'sexactly right. I think this doesn't certainly
doesn't take her out the way thisissue would have ten years ago. She

(38:19):
had done this ten years ago,it would be over right right, you
couldn't get away with anything like that. But but why why is that you
let me get at Because I don'tthink I think it's a little bit different
than what conventional wisdom would suggest.But I do would say I think it's
Jim is exactly right. This hasnot only not taken her out, but
the fact that she's continued, Ithink is very telling about where not just

(38:42):
the Republican basis, but where thecountry's at. First second, Historically this
would have taken her out of contention. And the reason why I think it
is important. And you characterize thisas a faux pau I would push back
on the little and say, Idon't think this was a mistake at all.
I think it's okay, consciousness understandswhere the Republican base is at.
Okay, I agree with you completelyabout that. Yeah, you can't be

(39:06):
a non white woman from South Carolinawho took down the Confederate flag from your
capital and not know how important flavoredheritage issues are in what language is necessary
there. So the question is whydoesn't this take her out? Right?
Like? Is she appealing to racismin the Republican Party. Let me say
this, I don't think that's certainlynot the way that people, I think

(39:29):
want easily characterize that at That's notwhat this was. What this was was
in many ways, it's become asign of every issue in our politics.
So let me equate this a littlebit to the gun control debate. It's
not that people don't believe that you'repro or against the Second Amendment, but
if you acknowledge any weakness in thepolicy argument, if and get this slippery

(39:52):
slide where people think, oh,okay, you're for a background check,
I can't completely trust you when thechips are down to be there to protect
the Second Amendment. It's the sameon cultural issues. Now there's no gray
area. You can't do the thingsthat we used to be done frankly in
polite society, or that are obviousbecause people are concerned that they won't be

(40:15):
able to trust you anymore. Infact, what I would also suggest is
Nikki Ailey, if she was thegovernor of South Carolina who was based with
taking the Confederate flag down now,would say absolutely hell, no, no
way, We're going to defend andprotect our heritage. And that's because that's
where the average base Republican voter isat. Incidentally, it's also where the

(40:36):
average based Democrat is on the otherside. Is right. As we've devolved
into zero sub politics, there arecertain touchstone issues where you cannot compromise or
find or seek middle ground because thepeople in your base will not trust you.
Writing a piece on this for TheNew York Times this week on immigration

(40:58):
and the problem that Joe bidenaz onseeking common sense immigration reform with the problem
in his own party because people stillwant he can be characterized fairly on unfairly
is as open borders immigration policy becausethey won't let them. There's no maneuvre
room to see. So that's whatHaley is facing, and I'm not justifying
it by the way. I thinkit's boring. I think it's wrong,

(41:20):
and I think it demonstrates very weakleadership. But it also speaks to her
understanding of where the Republican base isat. At worst, what this did
was it took her off message ata time when she was surging and she
could have been inserting some other messagesthat could have pushed her further. So
while it didn't take her out,it didn't hurt the viability of her candidacy
as it is, it also preventedher from really pushing through and developing perhaps

(41:45):
a knockout punch that could have showedpulling not just within seven but tied,
for example, with Trump coming finalstretch of this campaign. So that's the
way that I would look at it. That's the way that I would perceive
it, and I think it isinstructive because that answer tells us not just
a lot about the Republican base,but about the state of our politics generally,

(42:05):
and just the lack of flexibility thatcandidates have in being their true authentic
self. Right is answering those questionsthat you would expect to be answered that
are obvious on its face. Youcan't even answer questions like that anymore because
we're not speaking to the voters inNew Hampshire, not speaking to the people
at the diner over you know,scrambled eggs and bacon, You're talking to

(42:29):
CNN, and this all politics isnational type of environment that is going to
turn everybody else on. Yeah,and I like the point that you make
that it's you know, the howwe could have answered questions, how candidates,
you know, could have answered questionsmaybe more honestly, more authentically in
the pre Trump era and adopt expressright right, right, That's what McKay.

(42:52):
That's what broke through for McKay.Now that gets problematic that piece go
to other states. But in youranswer that some people expect if I don't
even have to, but if longeryou're shooting straight. Then I know what
kind of a person you are andthat's the that's my job as an event
Hampshire right, and I'm sharian.What is it? Uh? We're granted
staters? Yeah, sometimes saying toHampshire rights, but I hate that we're

(43:15):
granted as the red out of theUnited State. I mean they take that
very yeah seriously, and it's like, what is that right? Straight?
I ain't have to grieve with youon everything, but you're authenticate and you're
red well, and I'm gonna there'sthat's value to me and I'm going to
put you know, you win myvote because of that. Jim. Is
that still true in New Hampshire?I have a sense that it is.

(43:36):
You know, I'm not I'm notthere, but I'm very connected to all
those folks that are, you know, working hard there this next two weeks.
I have a sense that it isstill true there. But is there
something of it that's being lost orsomething of it that is being influenced by
you know, the Trump. AndI'm not going to ask you to take
sides with specific candidates or anything thatI don't want to put you in that
position, but Trump has absolutely impact. Did the GOP to what degree has

(44:02):
he impacted you know, this thistone or this attitude of us as Granite
State voters. Well, I mean, look, there are some things that
are different now than they were eightyears ago. And you know, I
was just given this example to someonetoday. You know, I can drive
down the street now and inevitably everyday I'll see a sipper, I'll see

(44:22):
a bumber sicker. It says fJoe Biden. Except it's not f right.
It's like, you know, it'slike this, there's this courseness that's
been introduced, that's always been there, but it kind of has come out
of the shadows now. And thenit goes both ways. Right, there's
this level of invective and fight,and you know, this courseness has been
injucted into the bloodstream, you know. So that's happened with Trump and kind

(44:45):
of I think took some certain trainsand put them on steroids. But look,
we've also we've nationalized the conversation asit relates to the debate standards.
Right. You know everyone was sayingthis summer, well, Chris Christi is
part to new Amshire. Well that'sactually not true. I mean he was
he was fundraising the country. Heyou know, because he had to meet

(45:05):
the RNC requirements to go on thedebate stage, and so those nationalized debate
requirements kept a lot of candidates fromkind of running a traditional New Hampshire campaign.
So the only one that Chris Christywould have had loved to have done.
He's not as much as he canhere, so as Haley, but
those national standards which weren't in effectbefore, it's just changes there. You
know, how you campaign, whatyou say, and how you say it.

(45:30):
So I think you know, listen, there are a lot of accroutes
about the new handstra electric and theprocess that still hold true. And I
do think it's a leveler in thatit does it sniff sniffs out probably just
pholies, but just you know,people who were just you have to have
a certain skill set to be anaffected communicator and an affected candidate. I

(45:52):
think Ron DeSantis's struggles here were inevidence on his first trip. I think
they it goes back to his campaign'seffort to control the media. They don't
want to do mainstream media interviews.They want to speak simply to Fox,
into Newsmax and to others, andthat's that's fine. That's important. But
you know, when you're in NewHampshire, most of the almost all the

(46:12):
media outlets here are mainstream, youknow, normal folks who are just trying
to get the news right, andyou know you've got to embrace it.
You've got to find a way todo that. So there are a lot
of things that have changed. Thereare certain core almost are the same,
and I go back to the Ailyexperience where he right wrong or are different.
However, she's Finnish, she's inNew Hampshire's gonna you know, it's

(46:34):
gonna be strong. I don't knowif she can win or not. I
think she's done a threatening of victoryhere. I think it's possible, and
it's bad a job because this iswhere I was going to go to wrap
up the conversation. Is it enoughif she comes in second place and she's
down five points, is that enoughto keep her in the race? Sure?
She If she can't in five points, she's not going to drop out,
not before South Carolina. I don't. I don't see that. I

(46:55):
think that My guess is by that, you know, because Christy's not a
dropboat out likely to sanders In Ramaswami, the problem is. I think if
if you know, you micro carsto Sandis and ramaswammies, vote half to
two thirds of those votes going toflood back to Trump. Those are folks
right where Trump alive. You're like, they don't want something different this time,

(47:15):
and that I have a choice betweenTrump and Pale, They're likely going
to choose Trump. So it probablywashes out. So if she's within it,
you know, a few a fieldgoal five points here, then I
think she buys herself another week andwe as we I think in this world
we live in now, you neverknow what's going to happen. You buy
yourself a puncher's chance, just likeBuster Douglas said many many years ago.

(47:39):
But you know it's it's long onsso and in that way, regardless of
the impact of Trump, that thatis the way it's always been. I
mean, that's that's that's the bottomline. You gotta get close in order
to keep going. And and ifyou get close, you get to keep
going. You know, it's notyou don't have you know, as I
said earlier, there, I reallydo see. I think that Nikki has

(48:00):
to prove that she can win,because her primary argument for her campaign is
I can win. Trump will loseagainst Biden. I can win against Biden.
So she's got to get in mybook, she's got to get awfully
close to winning in order to beable to keep making that argument. And
I'll just say real quickly, yousaid you and Mike both have reference,
you know, the Republican versus andDemocrats rn C, DNC. It's not

(48:22):
for this conversation, but I wouldmake a very strong argument that the rn
C and the DNC each have inthe way that they have responded to Trump
politics, have done real damage tothe American psyche, much less the American
politics. I'm not thrilled with eitherone of them. I don't. I
think they're both contributing to the problemrather than in any way trying to fix
it. So Jim, thank youfor that. Mike, so you know,

(48:45):
what are your wrap up thoughts onall this? It's not you know,
we Jim and I have had ouropportunity to sell New Hampshire comes from
a very sincere place for both ofus. But what about Nikki Heley?
And I guess Ronda Santis too.To some degree, does Rondo Santus have
anywhere to go if he loses thestate where the governor endorsed him, and
and he's gonna lose New Hampshire Ithink by an awful lot. You know,

(49:07):
does he if anywhere to go?And then the same with Nikki,
what does she need to be takenseriously as the candidate who can win?
I think just sanswer probably can goback to Tallahassee and do his job.
I think that's probably the main thingthat he's gonna Look, there's never been
a lane for the Santus ever,it's all mean you've never I think I've

(49:28):
done your show. And I wassaying that early when the hepe was like,
there's nothing, there's nothing here,this is going to collapse. Look,
I think again, Jim, obviouslyhe knows New Hampster as well better
anybody for insightful answers that he justgave. One of the things that I'm
looking for is actually the narrative afterwards, because one of the cool things about
New Campsters the interviews that they dowith people afterwards and they explain their vote.

(49:51):
They're like, I didn't think ofthat, and right, right didn
census oftentimes amongst these voters that areexplaining things, and so, you you
know, watching the campaigns adroitness andyou know Bill Clint's come back kid,
you're showing up in a deep secondagainst songists in ninety two, Right saved
his career by not getting completely blownout. You know, it's part of

(50:13):
the campaign's adeptness. But what whatI'm really looking for is to see whether
Granite staters, I like using thatnow articulating in those in those post election
interviews, whether it's a pro Haleyvote or whether it's an anti Trump vote.
That ain't a lot that's going totell you a lot about what's going

(50:36):
on. Right Like, I'm justI'm not gonna vote for Trump. There's
no way. I'm looking for analternative, and she's the right person that's
telling me a lot more than youknow, I like Nikki Haley's policy on
you know, Syria, that's somethingcompletely different. If they're if they're if
the if this is coming from aplace of I don't like Trump, and
that's where the opening was, thatis profoundly important data for us to be

(51:00):
looking at. No matter what happened, whether she you know, loses never
wins another state beyond that, orwhether she only wins by seven, or
whether she loses by seven. That'swhat I'm where's the Republican base voter that's
not pulling the lever for Trump?What is their rationale, because that's going
to tell you far more than thepulling is about the weakness Trump may be

(51:22):
experience of the Republican base. Yeah, that's smart. And you just made
your comment about DeSantis. You havefrom day one said that DeSantis doesn't have
a lad he doesn't have a placethere. And we've said, we've all
said, all three of us havesaid, I'm sure a hundred times.
You know, they're the anti Trumplane. Can't be the I'll be just
like Trump, only only not Trump. You know, whether it's only I

(51:45):
I just nicer, I speak morenicely, I come across as smarter like
whatever it is. There's no antiTrump laying that is. But look,
I can be just like Trump.And we see that with Ramaswami and with
DeSantis. Now they're both at thebottom of the barrel. Unfortunate Asa Hutchinson
is even farther below them by youknow, a really decent guy who probably
would have been a good president.So but so so so much of that

(52:07):
has played out and now it's justa question of where do we go from
gear? Jim Merrill and Mike Madrid. I am so pleased to have had
you with us today. Folks,continue to watch. We're going to be
back here next week talking about allof this sort of stuff as well.
All three of us are on Twitter, so I'll say it again. It's
Jim Merrill and Mike Madrid. AndI know that those of you who already

(52:30):
know them know how valuable their insightsare on social media as well. So
I look forward to talking to bothof you again, and you know,
before we get to November, I'msure that we will. This is Jennifer
Horne you're listening to. Is itjust me? Or have we all lost
our minds? Thank you for listeningand tuning with us again next week