January 23, 2024 • 24 mins
Political strategist and Lincoln Project co-founder Mike Madrid and Meghan Milloy of Republican Women for Congress join Jennifer to discuss what the results in New Hampshire will be, what that will bode for Trump and Biden in November, and the shifting composition of the Republican base.
Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/is-it-just-me-or-have-we-all-lost-our-minds--5869817/support.
Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/is-it-just-me-or-have-we-all-lost-our-minds--5869817/support.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:02):
Is it just me? Or havewe all lost our minds? It's a
question I've been asking myself on repeatfor the last eight years, and I
know I'm not alone in that.Is it the politics, is it the
culture? Or am I just gettingold? Hi? I'm Jennifer Horn and
I'm a former Republican strategist and partyleader turned independent sanity activist. I decided
(00:24):
to do this podcast so we couldexplore these questions. I'll bring experts to
the table from politics and media andculture. We'll have raw, insightful conversations
with the clear goal of getting tothe bottom of it all. One way
or another. We've all lost ourminds, and I hope you'll join us
on the journey to find them again. As we record this this evening tomorrow
(00:48):
is the first in the nation primaryin the beautiful state of New Hampshire,
my political hometown. We are downto just two Republican candidates on the ballot,
Donald Trump and Nikki Cayley. Ifyou've been listening to me and to
a lot of others that have beenchatting with us here for the past few
months, that shouldn't be too bigof a surprise for you, but it
(01:10):
is interesting and kind of taking alook ahead. You know, what do
the numbers mean? What does whatdo the results tomorrow mean for the GOP
and maybe for the general election atthis point as well. One of our
very best friends, the guy whounderstands the numbers and has taught me to
really know how to how to processpolling better than anybody I've ever seen,
(01:32):
is our friend Mike Madrid. Mike, thank you so much for joining us
on such short notice tonight. Well, thanks for the invitation, Jennifer,
It's always great to talk with youabout this stuff. Well, I appreciate
it, and we are both ona short time schedule tonight. So there's
a couple of things that I thinkfolks might be particularly interested in knowing that
will help them to sort of processwhat's happening tomorrow as they watch it,
(01:56):
whether they are on the ground inNew Hampshire like I am, or watching
it from afar. We're coming intothis race, Nicky Haley and Donald Trump
are anywhere from you know, likeeleven or twelve points apart to as much
as twenty points apart. And asyou have taught me well, I've been
watching these daily tracking polls for thepast week, and also some of the
some of the other polls that they'vebeen taking every few weeks for the past
(02:20):
couple of months now, and that'sbeen pretty much the trend all the all
the way along here and even inthese daily tracking polls the last few days,
Nikki Haley, you know, mightgo up by one point, but
Trump is going up by two points. It seems to me like the trend
is telling us a pretty obvious storyhere. Am I missing anything? No,
(02:45):
you're not. It's not telling usanything any different than really what I
think you and I have been talkingabout for the better part of you know,
well, since you know, Januarysixth of the twenty twenties, right
right left office. This is DonaldTrump's party. He's going to win the
primary, He's going to be thenominee. And that's not at all what
(03:07):
I'm looking for in this data.So, as is typical, I look
at data a little bit differently thanmost folks. And if you want,
we can kind of walk through whatis important, because I don't think who
wins is important at all. Idon't think he tells us anything. And
tell me what you think, thenI definitely want to hear it. So
again, If you look at mostof the polling data for the past few
(03:30):
years, all of it has suggestedthat Donald Trump is a dominant figure in
the Republican Party and that his baseis so expensive that there's never ever been
a pathway for an alternative to him. We talked about this when DeSantis got
in, so I'm get out.Last night, Nikki Haley jumped in.
I don't know how long she'll runfor My guess is she'll probably run for
(03:52):
a while after New Hampshire. Butthere's never really been a doubt in anybody
I think who seriously looks at thedata that Donald Trump was going to do
it other than win the nomination.But so the question really needs to be
a focus on what does this meanfor the general election? And in this
with that in mind, it reallygives us, I think, some really
(04:14):
good insight, and we're going toget some great data right after the polls
closed in New Hampshire tomorrow night.In understanding what that means, let me
begin with what happened in Iowa.Ap vote Cast did exit interviews with the
fifty percent of Republican voters that didnot vote for Donald Trump, and fully
twenty percent of those voters said thatthey will not vote for Donald Trump in
(04:40):
the general election. That's the numberthat I'm looking at, not who wins,
not who comes in second, notwho comes in third. I'm looking
for Republican voters that say they willnot vote for Trump in the general.
So when Haley invariably loses, Ithink she will lose tomorrow. I'm not
looking about how big she loses byor whether he gets fit twenty or sixty
(05:00):
five percent. All I'm looking atis what percent of Haley's Republican voters say
that they will not vote for DonaldTrump. Now, as you know better
than anybody New Hampshire voters, there'sa lot of independence there, and there's
a lot of other people that canhave There's been a concerted effort, which
(05:23):
I think is a mistake, toreregister Democrats as independence to vote for Nikki
Haley and vote for somebody other thanTrump. So that Mundy's the data up
a little bit. But as longas we're talking about Republicans, we have
a very strong sense of how bigthat old Bannon line number I was talking
about four years ago has gotten andwhat it means. And most data is
(05:45):
suggesting that we're talking about a Bannonline number that's probably double what it was
in twenty twenty, which means,I explained very quickly from folks who you
know, haven't been with us everyminute along the way, the Bannon number
Bannon. So in twenty twenty,I was saying, and when Jennifer and
I were with a Lincoln project,that if Donald Trump were to lose just
(06:05):
five to seven percent of Republican basevoters, he would lose a narrow election.
And that is in fact what hedid. The margin of loss for
Trump in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsinwere all less than a couple of percentage
points, and he lost about ninepercent of the vote Republican vote nationally.
(06:30):
So we exceeded that ban In linenumber that we were targeting. Now he
is pulling about double that. He'slosing about double that, which means that
if he loses fourteen fifteen, sixteenpercent of the Republican vote, he's in
much deeper trouble. Now, there'sa couple of there's a couple of caveats
on that. Okay. The firstis and you and I talked about this
(06:54):
when we were in Park City inthe winning days of the campaign. I
also began to alert the press,the public, the Biden campaign through public
means that they were losing the Hispanicvote by historic numbers, and if they
lost so many Latino voters, itcould up it could mitigate the ban in
Line March, and that we weregetting of convincing Republicans to vote for Biden.
(07:18):
That's that's a bigger that is abigger danger in twenty twenty four than
it was in twenty twenty. Andso there's these two demographics that are moving,
one to the left, which collegeeducated white suburban women you know them
better than anybody in the country.And Hispanic Latino voters us born, non
(07:40):
college educated. That's why I've beenfocusing my career for thirty years. They're
moving to the rights. And forthe moment, the mass, that's just
the moment, you know. Yeah, for the moment, the math benefits
the Democrats because there are more collegeeducated white women than there are Latino males.
(08:03):
And this is really important, andthis is why the New Hampshire numbers
are going to be very instructive intelling us Trump's strength in the general election.
It literally tells us nothing about theprimary and whether Nikki Healy should continue
or what a campaign means, howstrong Donald Trump is in the Republican primary.
It means nothing. But let's lookat the difference between Iowa New Hampshire,
(08:24):
and for once, I think thecountry is really getting a deep insight
into the Republican base because Iowa isperhaps the one state in the country that
has the most concentration of evangelical whiteevangelical voters in its Republican primaries. That's
slightly different than what we see inNew Hampshire, where New Hampshire has a
(08:45):
much higher portion of non college educated, blue collar, working class whites,
and that those two demographics are basicallythe coalition of the Republican Party as we
know it today. Because they aredistinct, we can actually see how strong
or weak Trump is in each respectivebase and make a pretty good projection about
(09:09):
where the Republican base is for Trumpgoing into the general election. Is that
two in the weeds or does thatmake sense? No, that makes perfect
sense to me, And I thinkthat and especially makes sense to me now
that you put it together, thepuzzle of Iowa and New Hampshire together what
each one brings, but you knowthat's unique from the other and real you
that and they're different, but bothcritically important, and it's the coalition of
(09:35):
the two that kind of kind ofdefined the Republican base at this point.
That's one hundred percent right. Thatis exactly the way to look at it.
And that's why, like I said, you know, I've been saying
for the past few years, Trump'sgoing to be the nominee. The question
is is how weak is he withthe Republican base. There's never any doubt
he's going to win the nomination.He's overwhelmingly popular, He's overwhelmingly strong in
(09:58):
the Republican base. But those peoplethat have had some trepidation, had some
concerns about the Republican Party generally andDonald Trump specifically, that number is bigger
too. So the intensity of theRepublican base that pro Trump has gotten,
you know, red white hot,fury, rage, anger, motivation.
(10:18):
You saw that then with people votingnegative five degrees in Iowa. But so
has that never Trump lane. It'snot huge, but it's bigger than it
was in twenty twenty, and thatwas we had enough in twenty twenty to
defeat him at the polls in Novemberof that year. So look at this
point in time, and a lotis going to change, But at this
(10:39):
point in time, as I've beensaying for four years, the fundamentals of
this race strongly benefit of Biden reelection. Things will change, dynamics will change,
but the fundamentals of the race,and this is setting the economy aside.
I think we're going to be headinginto a better economy, but I
don't think that matters one bit.That doesn't matter one iota because that's not
what driving this base. Those votersare not economic voters. There's some of
(11:03):
that with the non college educated basein New Hampshire, which is why I'm
interested in that, but that's notmotivating white evangelicals in Iowa. And the
best way to really examine that isto look at the trend from twenty eighteen.
In twenty eighteen and twenty twenty,and then really big in twenty twenty
two. You saw this movement ofwhite Republican college educated women away from the
(11:28):
Republican Party. And everybody talks aboutDobbs and the abortion rights decision, and
there's truth to that, but youhave to remember this trend started two election
cycles prior to Dobbs. It's gottenslightly bigger and more intense in the same
way Trump's supporting the Republican Party hasgotten more intense, and that's a big
weakness. That's a big weakness forTrump. We should not underestimate the impact
(11:58):
that Dobbs is still going to beable to have on turnout in this general
election. It's not dead, it'snot you know, that issue isn't over
yet. Hey, Mike, Meganmalloy from the Republican Women for Progress was
able to join us, it turnsout now as well, so I welcome
her to the conversation. Mike hasjust done a fabulous job of explaining to
(12:18):
us what the numbers are going tomean post New Hampshire tomorrow. And Mike,
just to kind of wrap that upvery quickly, you're talking about are
you talking about exit polling or areyou talking about the new polling that's going
to begin once New Hampshire is over. I'm looking for exit polling. Yeah,
(12:39):
well, both of the both ofus will tell stuff. But the
most important thing that's going to comeout of New Hampshire, again, for
a data nerd like me, isnot going to be the actual election results.
I could care less. Nikki Haleyis not going to win the nomination.
Right, Okay, she could win, she could win New Hampshire Row
sixty forty. She's still not goingto win the nomination. But that's not
what I'm looking for. What II can tell you on the ground that
(13:01):
she's not going to win New Hampshiresixty forty, that's not part of the
equation for sure. Yeah. Right, So what I'm looking for is when
they do exit data, AP doesa very extensive exit surveys of Nicky Haley
Republican voters. And notice I saidrepublican, because there will be independents,
there will be Democrats that have crossedover New Hampshire. I'm looking at just
(13:24):
Republican voters who voted for Haley,and that will tell me everything I need
to know about the weakness, thecurrent weakness of Trump's base heading into the
general, especially when you overlap itwith Iowa's data, We're gonna have a
really clear picture of how strong heis and how weak he is as we
head into not just the other primaries, which I think have less significance,
(13:46):
he'll consolidate the rest of the Republicanvote, but heading into this election season
against Joe Biden. Yeah, that'sfascinating to me. Megan jump in on
this, and at the same time, I just as I explained to my
already, and so folks know whoare listening in, this will get out
first thing tomorrow morning on election dayin New Hampshire, So we need I
(14:07):
need to get it down pretty quickso we can get it edited and ready
by deadline. So I want tohear whatever thought you have on what Mike
was just saying. But at thesame time, I have a question for
you, and just remind everybody,Megan is one of the founders of the
Republican Women for Progress, which wasfounded during the Hillary Clinton Trump campaign cycle.
(14:30):
Megan, why isn't why wasn't Haleyable to do more to create more
excitement to bring more that Republican baseto her? Is it just? Is
it? I think it's as simpleas the Republican Party wants Trump. I
don't think they're specifically rejecting her becauseshe's a woman, or because she's you
(14:50):
know, because of her ethnicity oranything like that. I think it's just
that they it's a pro Trump,not an anti daily thing. But do
you know, so sharing just yourthoughts on both of those questions. Yeah,
Well, I care exactly right,Jennifer. I mean I see two
things, and one that really kindof makes me angry is as someone who
(15:11):
grew up in the South and tohear Nikki Haley complaining about growing up in
the South and just being targeted forher race, for anything else, It's
like, that's how we treat peoplein the South like she is. She's
trying to make this her character andis absolutely not character. So that makes
me angry. Person Well, theother things I think you're you're correct,
like this is this is Trump's partynow, and that's that's all it is,
(15:35):
Like that's the end of the story. Well, I mean I would
rather not personally, but I thinkthat's that's unfortunately the director that it's going.
But I think that especially women voters, I mean you see that recent
calling that came out yesterday to daythat saw women voters overwhelmingly supporting Donald Trump
over Nicky Haley and New Hampshire specifically, it's like, you know, they
(16:00):
I think that they just don't seea path forward, and so it's why
would you put your eggs all onthis one baskint of a candidate not probably
going to do very much right?And I think that that's that's kind of
if there appear to be more ofa path forward than I think that you
would see a little bit of adifferent number. But at at the end
of the day, it's it isstill Trump's party unfortunately, right what I
(16:25):
would like to ask night be inthe data are that he is. How
do you or either one of y'all, how do y'all see the numbers falling
out? I mean, we're losingall of the Sanders. Now, how
do you see them falling into theHaley or Trump pots? Like, is
it going to be the sixty forty, Is it going to be a fifty?
Is it going to be one hundredzero? Where do they go at
(16:47):
this point? Is it not likean anti Trump vote? I really can't
imagine. Yeah, I can't imaginea DESTANTUS voter voting for Nikki Haley.
And you know he came right outand endorse Trump in the same speech that
he dropped out of race, andjust because of demeanor and tone and policy,
and I mean he would DeSantis wastrying to out Trump Trump and you
(17:07):
know he was trying to run toTrump's right, She's been trying to run
you know, convinced moderates and conservativestogether that you know. But Mike,
I think the numbers are going toshow that DeSantis voters, Ramaswami voters pretty
much almost one hundred percent go toTrump. Well, certainly Vivek Ramaswami's vote
for sure, I think, Ithink I agree with you. I think
it's the vast majority, probably twothirds plus go to DeSantis voters go to
(17:34):
go to Trump. Again, allI'm looking for is is with Nikki Haley's
you know, numbers is not there'sthere's not much of a pro Haley vote.
There hasn't been one. I'm lookingfor the anti Trump vote, right,
and again it's a different matters goingforward from the Yeah, so I
Megan's asking the right question, andit's a good one. But the answer
(17:55):
really is is it a pro youknow, Trump vote or is an anti
Haley vote? And the same istrue and vice versa. Whose base is
voting against who? And you bothheard me talk probably ad nauseum about negative
partisanship. That's what matters is whatpeople are against is a bigger motivator than
what they're for. And that's that'sthat's what I'm looking for, is if
(18:15):
if DeSantis, if twenty percent ofDeSantis's voters break for Haley because they're anti
Trump, that's a big win.Like, that's a big win. So
so if eighty percent of DeSantis votersgo for Trump, fine, you know,
take them. That's where they're goingto go. Anyway, I'm just
looking for what the anti Trump metricsare. And uh, you know,
(18:37):
hey, I think a lot ofof DeSantis' early support anyway, was was
kind of establishment Republicans hoping that theRake and Bush days would come back.
And they don't like Trump, butthey're going to vote for him if they
have to, and what would prefernot to? And and that's not a
laye in the GOP. And that'syou know again, why why we've been
pointing that out is that's not that'snot a viable path to a nomination or
(18:59):
even a viable campaign. And DeSantisprove that. And that's a whole other
conversation. The three of us shouldget back on the you know, back
on the phone together again to talkabout that. You know that the nostalgia
for the pre Trump days that Ithink is really blocking the ability of an
awful lot of Republicans from embracing reality, embracing the truth and what they need
to do going forward. I'm goingto give you my thought, and then
(19:26):
i want the two of you justto, you know, each kind of
give me your thought on what youthink sort of the most the most important
thing to think about, whether it'sout of New Hampshire or going forward or
for the party. I think whatwhat I'm struck by from the last couple
of weeks. I've been doing alot of media and I think a big
mistake, or a big misdirection,is that there are too many people still
(19:47):
trying to talk about this like it'sjust any other race, like it's just
any other presidential cycle year. Andyou know, what are the polls saying
today? What are the poles sayingyesterday? You know that kind of thing?
And I think that they are missing, continuing to miss the overarching,
critically important question in all of this, which to me is will enough Republicans,
(20:08):
enough Americans recognize the extraordinary danger oflosing democracy, Will they realize what
that means and connect the dots tothis general election or not? That's what
I worry about the most. SoMegan, you jump in next and share
your thoughts, please, Yeah,I mean, I'm with you. I'm
(20:30):
having total plus back to twenty sixteen. It's like this is you know,
we're just peering on like it's anhomal election. Like Mike said, we're
kind of trying to pretend that we'reback in the in the Reagan Bush years,
and we're not. And it's likewe've seed this entire thing play out
before our eyes once and I thinkfolks have forgotten how that was, and
(20:52):
you know, it's like we're rightback in Ground Kung days. So you
know, I'm concerned that, youknow, we're getting back and we're starting
these conversations in Washington about oh,what if we lose the House, what
if we lose the Senate? Whatif Reublicans do this for that? And
it's like here's a ship, likeyou're going to end up with the person
of the White House that like hasabsolutely no regard for democracy and and then
(21:15):
we do care to lose what ifwe lose democracy? Yeah, like we're
exactly. And so we're you're seeinghis things on social about you know,
what the president can and cannot do, and it's like that's horrifying. But
we've gotten so used to these absolutelyhorrifying things coming across, and uh,
I think we're just so used toit and it's become comfortable, and no
(21:37):
one's as in a panic because Ithink they should be. I agree with
that. He's just neu realized.He Trump has normalized the most outrageous things,
and and so there are so manypeople who are sort of just sitting
back. He doesn't really mean he'sgoing to be a dictator. He doesn't
really mean, you know, Ithink that is a great danger. I
(22:00):
agree with you. And so,Mike, what are your final thoughts as
we go into the New Hampshire votingtomorrow. Well, let me say,
here's kind of what I'm looking for, and here's kind of I guess some
some predictions, at least the earlyones. The first is, I think
Trump will win quite handily in NewHampshire tomorrow. Again, I don't think
(22:22):
that's so much consequence. Keep lookingfor the anti Trump vote with the exit
polling data. The second thing ismy prediction is you're going to start seeing
Joe Biden's number starts to get strongerincrementally. Think he's bottomed because this race
is moving very quickly after New Hampshire, from the abstract to the real to
the existential people will be reminded andyou're going to start seeing a firming up
(22:45):
of Biden's space. The question again, I think to look, and we're
talking about four or five weeks fromnow, or at least as we head
passed or headed to the South Carolina'sprime South Carolina primaries is can Trump start
breaking into the seventies seventy five percentas he consolidates the base even further and
ultimately into the summer. I'm wayahead of myself, but Kenny start breaking
(23:08):
above an eighty three eighty five percentrange. My prediction is gonna have a
tough time with that. And ifthat is the case, it speaks very
very well for a Biden relapse.So it's starting. I think it gets
real after New Hampshire and I thinkyou have a see or older opinion start
to gel in a way that ithas since the midterm. So let's get
(23:29):
ready for it. Fascinating, It'sfascinating and so important. You know,
the importance of what we're talking aboutcannot be underestimated. Megan, thank you
so much, Republican Women for Progress, and Mike, I never know exactly
how to describe you to people otherthan the great data master of political data.
And I'm very grateful for both ofyou jumping on today to have this
(23:52):
conversation with our listeners, and Ilook forward to circling back with both of
you after New Hampshire has settled down, but maybe before we get to South
Carolina and kind of see how thingsare going. Thank you both very much,
and both of you are in vehicleswith wheels and wings, travel safely
and have a great, great night. Thank you, Thank you, Bess.
(24:15):
Great to reconnect with you all,Thank you. Thanks you're listening to
Is it just me or have weall lost our minds? This is Jennifer
Horn. Thanks for tuning in andmake sure to listen for us. We
will have another another great episode foryou in just a couple of days
Is it just me? Or havewe all lost our minds? It's a
question I've been asking myself on repeatfor the last eight years, and I
know I'm not alone in that.Is it the politics, is it the
culture? Or am I just gettingold? Hi? I'm Jennifer Horn and
I'm a former Republican strategist and partyleader turned independent sanity activist. I decided
(00:24):
to do this podcast so we couldexplore these questions. I'll bring experts to
the table from politics and media andculture. We'll have raw, insightful conversations
with the clear goal of getting tothe bottom of it all. One way
or another. We've all lost ourminds, and I hope you'll join us
on the journey to find them again. As we record this this evening tomorrow
(00:48):
is the first in the nation primaryin the beautiful state of New Hampshire,
my political hometown. We are downto just two Republican candidates on the ballot,
Donald Trump and Nikki Cayley. Ifyou've been listening to me and to
a lot of others that have beenchatting with us here for the past few
months, that shouldn't be too bigof a surprise for you, but it
(01:10):
is interesting and kind of taking alook ahead. You know, what do
the numbers mean? What does whatdo the results tomorrow mean for the GOP
and maybe for the general election atthis point as well. One of our
very best friends, the guy whounderstands the numbers and has taught me to
really know how to how to processpolling better than anybody I've ever seen,
(01:32):
is our friend Mike Madrid. Mike, thank you so much for joining us
on such short notice tonight. Well, thanks for the invitation, Jennifer,
It's always great to talk with youabout this stuff. Well, I appreciate
it, and we are both ona short time schedule tonight. So there's
a couple of things that I thinkfolks might be particularly interested in knowing that
will help them to sort of processwhat's happening tomorrow as they watch it,
(01:56):
whether they are on the ground inNew Hampshire like I am, or watching
it from afar. We're coming intothis race, Nicky Haley and Donald Trump
are anywhere from you know, likeeleven or twelve points apart to as much
as twenty points apart. And asyou have taught me well, I've been
watching these daily tracking polls for thepast week, and also some of the
some of the other polls that they'vebeen taking every few weeks for the past
(02:20):
couple of months now, and that'sbeen pretty much the trend all the all
the way along here and even inthese daily tracking polls the last few days,
Nikki Haley, you know, mightgo up by one point, but
Trump is going up by two points. It seems to me like the trend
is telling us a pretty obvious storyhere. Am I missing anything? No,
(02:45):
you're not. It's not telling usanything any different than really what I
think you and I have been talkingabout for the better part of you know,
well, since you know, Januarysixth of the twenty twenties, right
right left office. This is DonaldTrump's party. He's going to win the
primary, He's going to be thenominee. And that's not at all what
(03:07):
I'm looking for in this data.So, as is typical, I look
at data a little bit differently thanmost folks. And if you want,
we can kind of walk through whatis important, because I don't think who
wins is important at all. Idon't think he tells us anything. And
tell me what you think, thenI definitely want to hear it. So
again, If you look at mostof the polling data for the past few
(03:30):
years, all of it has suggestedthat Donald Trump is a dominant figure in
the Republican Party and that his baseis so expensive that there's never ever been
a pathway for an alternative to him. We talked about this when DeSantis got
in, so I'm get out.Last night, Nikki Haley jumped in.
I don't know how long she'll runfor My guess is she'll probably run for
(03:52):
a while after New Hampshire. Butthere's never really been a doubt in anybody
I think who seriously looks at thedata that Donald Trump was going to do
it other than win the nomination.But so the question really needs to be
a focus on what does this meanfor the general election? And in this
with that in mind, it reallygives us, I think, some really
(04:14):
good insight, and we're going toget some great data right after the polls
closed in New Hampshire tomorrow night.In understanding what that means, let me
begin with what happened in Iowa.Ap vote Cast did exit interviews with the
fifty percent of Republican voters that didnot vote for Donald Trump, and fully
twenty percent of those voters said thatthey will not vote for Donald Trump in
(04:40):
the general election. That's the numberthat I'm looking at, not who wins,
not who comes in second, notwho comes in third. I'm looking
for Republican voters that say they willnot vote for Trump in the general.
So when Haley invariably loses, Ithink she will lose tomorrow. I'm not
looking about how big she loses byor whether he gets fit twenty or sixty
(05:00):
five percent. All I'm looking atis what percent of Haley's Republican voters say
that they will not vote for DonaldTrump. Now, as you know better
than anybody New Hampshire voters, there'sa lot of independence there, and there's
a lot of other people that canhave There's been a concerted effort, which
(05:23):
I think is a mistake, toreregister Democrats as independence to vote for Nikki
Haley and vote for somebody other thanTrump. So that Mundy's the data up
a little bit. But as longas we're talking about Republicans, we have
a very strong sense of how bigthat old Bannon line number I was talking
about four years ago has gotten andwhat it means. And most data is
(05:45):
suggesting that we're talking about a Bannonline number that's probably double what it was
in twenty twenty, which means,I explained very quickly from folks who you
know, haven't been with us everyminute along the way, the Bannon number
Bannon. So in twenty twenty,I was saying, and when Jennifer and
I were with a Lincoln project,that if Donald Trump were to lose just
(06:05):
five to seven percent of Republican basevoters, he would lose a narrow election.
And that is in fact what hedid. The margin of loss for
Trump in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsinwere all less than a couple of percentage
points, and he lost about ninepercent of the vote Republican vote nationally.
(06:30):
So we exceeded that ban In linenumber that we were targeting. Now he
is pulling about double that. He'slosing about double that, which means that
if he loses fourteen fifteen, sixteenpercent of the Republican vote, he's in
much deeper trouble. Now, there'sa couple of there's a couple of caveats
on that. Okay. The firstis and you and I talked about this
(06:54):
when we were in Park City inthe winning days of the campaign. I
also began to alert the press,the public, the Biden campaign through public
means that they were losing the Hispanicvote by historic numbers, and if they
lost so many Latino voters, itcould up it could mitigate the ban in
Line March, and that we weregetting of convincing Republicans to vote for Biden.
(07:18):
That's that's a bigger that is abigger danger in twenty twenty four than
it was in twenty twenty. Andso there's these two demographics that are moving,
one to the left, which collegeeducated white suburban women you know them
better than anybody in the country.And Hispanic Latino voters us born, non
(07:40):
college educated. That's why I've beenfocusing my career for thirty years. They're
moving to the rights. And forthe moment, the mass, that's just
the moment, you know. Yeah, for the moment, the math benefits
the Democrats because there are more collegeeducated white women than there are Latino males.
(08:03):
And this is really important, andthis is why the New Hampshire numbers
are going to be very instructive intelling us Trump's strength in the general election.
It literally tells us nothing about theprimary and whether Nikki Healy should continue
or what a campaign means, howstrong Donald Trump is in the Republican primary.
It means nothing. But let's lookat the difference between Iowa New Hampshire,
(08:24):
and for once, I think thecountry is really getting a deep insight
into the Republican base because Iowa isperhaps the one state in the country that
has the most concentration of evangelical whiteevangelical voters in its Republican primaries. That's
slightly different than what we see inNew Hampshire, where New Hampshire has a
(08:45):
much higher portion of non college educated, blue collar, working class whites,
and that those two demographics are basicallythe coalition of the Republican Party as we
know it today. Because they aredistinct, we can actually see how strong
or weak Trump is in each respectivebase and make a pretty good projection about
(09:09):
where the Republican base is for Trumpgoing into the general election. Is that
two in the weeds or does thatmake sense? No, that makes perfect
sense to me, And I thinkthat and especially makes sense to me now
that you put it together, thepuzzle of Iowa and New Hampshire together what
each one brings, but you knowthat's unique from the other and real you
that and they're different, but bothcritically important, and it's the coalition of
(09:35):
the two that kind of kind ofdefined the Republican base at this point.
That's one hundred percent right. Thatis exactly the way to look at it.
And that's why, like I said, you know, I've been saying
for the past few years, Trump'sgoing to be the nominee. The question
is is how weak is he withthe Republican base. There's never any doubt
he's going to win the nomination.He's overwhelmingly popular, He's overwhelmingly strong in
(09:58):
the Republican base. But those peoplethat have had some trepidation, had some
concerns about the Republican Party generally andDonald Trump specifically, that number is bigger
too. So the intensity of theRepublican base that pro Trump has gotten,
you know, red white hot,fury, rage, anger, motivation.
(10:18):
You saw that then with people votingnegative five degrees in Iowa. But so
has that never Trump lane. It'snot huge, but it's bigger than it
was in twenty twenty, and thatwas we had enough in twenty twenty to
defeat him at the polls in Novemberof that year. So look at this
point in time, and a lotis going to change, But at this
(10:39):
point in time, as I've beensaying for four years, the fundamentals of
this race strongly benefit of Biden reelection. Things will change, dynamics will change,
but the fundamentals of the race,and this is setting the economy aside.
I think we're going to be headinginto a better economy, but I
don't think that matters one bit.That doesn't matter one iota because that's not
what driving this base. Those votersare not economic voters. There's some of
(11:03):
that with the non college educated basein New Hampshire, which is why I'm
interested in that, but that's notmotivating white evangelicals in Iowa. And the
best way to really examine that isto look at the trend from twenty eighteen.
In twenty eighteen and twenty twenty,and then really big in twenty twenty
two. You saw this movement ofwhite Republican college educated women away from the
(11:28):
Republican Party. And everybody talks aboutDobbs and the abortion rights decision, and
there's truth to that, but youhave to remember this trend started two election
cycles prior to Dobbs. It's gottenslightly bigger and more intense in the same
way Trump's supporting the Republican Party hasgotten more intense, and that's a big
weakness. That's a big weakness forTrump. We should not underestimate the impact
(11:58):
that Dobbs is still going to beable to have on turnout in this general
election. It's not dead, it'snot you know, that issue isn't over
yet. Hey, Mike, Meganmalloy from the Republican Women for Progress was
able to join us, it turnsout now as well, so I welcome
her to the conversation. Mike hasjust done a fabulous job of explaining to
(12:18):
us what the numbers are going tomean post New Hampshire tomorrow. And Mike,
just to kind of wrap that upvery quickly, you're talking about are
you talking about exit polling or areyou talking about the new polling that's going
to begin once New Hampshire is over. I'm looking for exit polling. Yeah,
(12:39):
well, both of the both ofus will tell stuff. But the
most important thing that's going to comeout of New Hampshire, again, for
a data nerd like me, isnot going to be the actual election results.
I could care less. Nikki Haleyis not going to win the nomination.
Right, Okay, she could win, she could win New Hampshire Row
sixty forty. She's still not goingto win the nomination. But that's not
what I'm looking for. What II can tell you on the ground that
(13:01):
she's not going to win New Hampshiresixty forty, that's not part of the
equation for sure. Yeah. Right, So what I'm looking for is when
they do exit data, AP doesa very extensive exit surveys of Nicky Haley
Republican voters. And notice I saidrepublican, because there will be independents,
there will be Democrats that have crossedover New Hampshire. I'm looking at just
(13:24):
Republican voters who voted for Haley,and that will tell me everything I need
to know about the weakness, thecurrent weakness of Trump's base heading into the
general, especially when you overlap itwith Iowa's data, We're gonna have a
really clear picture of how strong heis and how weak he is as we
head into not just the other primaries, which I think have less significance,
(13:46):
he'll consolidate the rest of the Republicanvote, but heading into this election season
against Joe Biden. Yeah, that'sfascinating to me. Megan jump in on
this, and at the same time, I just as I explained to my
already, and so folks know whoare listening in, this will get out
first thing tomorrow morning on election dayin New Hampshire, So we need I
(14:07):
need to get it down pretty quickso we can get it edited and ready
by deadline. So I want tohear whatever thought you have on what Mike
was just saying. But at thesame time, I have a question for
you, and just remind everybody,Megan is one of the founders of the
Republican Women for Progress, which wasfounded during the Hillary Clinton Trump campaign cycle.
(14:30):
Megan, why isn't why wasn't Haleyable to do more to create more
excitement to bring more that Republican baseto her? Is it just? Is
it? I think it's as simpleas the Republican Party wants Trump. I
don't think they're specifically rejecting her becauseshe's a woman, or because she's you
(14:50):
know, because of her ethnicity oranything like that. I think it's just
that they it's a pro Trump,not an anti daily thing. But do
you know, so sharing just yourthoughts on both of those questions. Yeah,
Well, I care exactly right,Jennifer. I mean I see two
things, and one that really kindof makes me angry is as someone who
(15:11):
grew up in the South and tohear Nikki Haley complaining about growing up in
the South and just being targeted forher race, for anything else, It's
like, that's how we treat peoplein the South like she is. She's
trying to make this her character andis absolutely not character. So that makes
me angry. Person Well, theother things I think you're you're correct,
like this is this is Trump's partynow, and that's that's all it is,
(15:35):
Like that's the end of the story. Well, I mean I would
rather not personally, but I thinkthat's that's unfortunately the director that it's going.
But I think that especially women voters, I mean you see that recent
calling that came out yesterday to daythat saw women voters overwhelmingly supporting Donald Trump
over Nicky Haley and New Hampshire specifically, it's like, you know, they
(16:00):
I think that they just don't seea path forward, and so it's why
would you put your eggs all onthis one baskint of a candidate not probably
going to do very much right?And I think that that's that's kind of
if there appear to be more ofa path forward than I think that you
would see a little bit of adifferent number. But at at the end
of the day, it's it isstill Trump's party unfortunately, right what I
(16:25):
would like to ask night be inthe data are that he is. How
do you or either one of y'all, how do y'all see the numbers falling
out? I mean, we're losingall of the Sanders. Now, how
do you see them falling into theHaley or Trump pots? Like, is
it going to be the sixty forty, Is it going to be a fifty?
Is it going to be one hundredzero? Where do they go at
(16:47):
this point? Is it not likean anti Trump vote? I really can't
imagine. Yeah, I can't imaginea DESTANTUS voter voting for Nikki Haley.
And you know he came right outand endorse Trump in the same speech that
he dropped out of race, andjust because of demeanor and tone and policy,
and I mean he would DeSantis wastrying to out Trump Trump and you
(17:07):
know he was trying to run toTrump's right, She's been trying to run
you know, convinced moderates and conservativestogether that you know. But Mike,
I think the numbers are going toshow that DeSantis voters, Ramaswami voters pretty
much almost one hundred percent go toTrump. Well, certainly Vivek Ramaswami's vote
for sure, I think, Ithink I agree with you. I think
it's the vast majority, probably twothirds plus go to DeSantis voters go to
(17:34):
go to Trump. Again, allI'm looking for is is with Nikki Haley's
you know, numbers is not there'sthere's not much of a pro Haley vote.
There hasn't been one. I'm lookingfor the anti Trump vote, right,
and again it's a different matters goingforward from the Yeah, so I
Megan's asking the right question, andit's a good one. But the answer
(17:55):
really is is it a pro youknow, Trump vote or is an anti
Haley vote? And the same istrue and vice versa. Whose base is
voting against who? And you bothheard me talk probably ad nauseum about negative
partisanship. That's what matters is whatpeople are against is a bigger motivator than
what they're for. And that's that'sthat's what I'm looking for, is if
(18:15):
if DeSantis, if twenty percent ofDeSantis's voters break for Haley because they're anti
Trump, that's a big win.Like, that's a big win. So
so if eighty percent of DeSantis votersgo for Trump, fine, you know,
take them. That's where they're goingto go. Anyway, I'm just
looking for what the anti Trump metricsare. And uh, you know,
(18:37):
hey, I think a lot ofof DeSantis' early support anyway, was was
kind of establishment Republicans hoping that theRake and Bush days would come back.
And they don't like Trump, butthey're going to vote for him if they
have to, and what would prefernot to? And and that's not a
laye in the GOP. And that'syou know again, why why we've been
pointing that out is that's not that'snot a viable path to a nomination or
(18:59):
even a viable campaign. And DeSantisprove that. And that's a whole other
conversation. The three of us shouldget back on the you know, back
on the phone together again to talkabout that. You know that the nostalgia
for the pre Trump days that Ithink is really blocking the ability of an
awful lot of Republicans from embracing reality, embracing the truth and what they need
to do going forward. I'm goingto give you my thought, and then
(19:26):
i want the two of you justto, you know, each kind of
give me your thought on what youthink sort of the most the most important
thing to think about, whether it'sout of New Hampshire or going forward or
for the party. I think whatwhat I'm struck by from the last couple
of weeks. I've been doing alot of media and I think a big
mistake, or a big misdirection,is that there are too many people still
(19:47):
trying to talk about this like it'sjust any other race, like it's just
any other presidential cycle year. Andyou know, what are the polls saying
today? What are the poles sayingyesterday? You know that kind of thing?
And I think that they are missing, continuing to miss the overarching,
critically important question in all of this, which to me is will enough Republicans,
(20:08):
enough Americans recognize the extraordinary danger oflosing democracy, Will they realize what
that means and connect the dots tothis general election or not? That's what
I worry about the most. SoMegan, you jump in next and share
your thoughts, please, Yeah,I mean, I'm with you. I'm
(20:30):
having total plus back to twenty sixteen. It's like this is you know,
we're just peering on like it's anhomal election. Like Mike said, we're
kind of trying to pretend that we'reback in the in the Reagan Bush years,
and we're not. And it's likewe've seed this entire thing play out
before our eyes once and I thinkfolks have forgotten how that was, and
(20:52):
you know, it's like we're rightback in Ground Kung days. So you
know, I'm concerned that, youknow, we're getting back and we're starting
these conversations in Washington about oh,what if we lose the House, what
if we lose the Senate? Whatif Reublicans do this for that? And
it's like here's a ship, likeyou're going to end up with the person
of the White House that like hasabsolutely no regard for democracy and and then
(21:15):
we do care to lose what ifwe lose democracy? Yeah, like we're
exactly. And so we're you're seeinghis things on social about you know,
what the president can and cannot do, and it's like that's horrifying. But
we've gotten so used to these absolutelyhorrifying things coming across, and uh,
I think we're just so used toit and it's become comfortable, and no
(21:37):
one's as in a panic because Ithink they should be. I agree with
that. He's just neu realized.He Trump has normalized the most outrageous things,
and and so there are so manypeople who are sort of just sitting
back. He doesn't really mean he'sgoing to be a dictator. He doesn't
really mean, you know, Ithink that is a great danger. I
(22:00):
agree with you. And so,Mike, what are your final thoughts as
we go into the New Hampshire votingtomorrow. Well, let me say,
here's kind of what I'm looking for, and here's kind of I guess some
some predictions, at least the earlyones. The first is, I think
Trump will win quite handily in NewHampshire tomorrow. Again, I don't think
(22:22):
that's so much consequence. Keep lookingfor the anti Trump vote with the exit
polling data. The second thing ismy prediction is you're going to start seeing
Joe Biden's number starts to get strongerincrementally. Think he's bottomed because this race
is moving very quickly after New Hampshire, from the abstract to the real to
the existential people will be reminded andyou're going to start seeing a firming up
(22:45):
of Biden's space. The question again, I think to look, and we're
talking about four or five weeks fromnow, or at least as we head
passed or headed to the South Carolina'sprime South Carolina primaries is can Trump start
breaking into the seventies seventy five percentas he consolidates the base even further and
ultimately into the summer. I'm wayahead of myself, but Kenny start breaking
(23:08):
above an eighty three eighty five percentrange. My prediction is gonna have a
tough time with that. And ifthat is the case, it speaks very
very well for a Biden relapse.So it's starting. I think it gets
real after New Hampshire and I thinkyou have a see or older opinion start
to gel in a way that ithas since the midterm. So let's get
(23:29):
ready for it. Fascinating, It'sfascinating and so important. You know,
the importance of what we're talking aboutcannot be underestimated. Megan, thank you
so much, Republican Women for Progress, and Mike, I never know exactly
how to describe you to people otherthan the great data master of political data.
And I'm very grateful for both ofyou jumping on today to have this
(23:52):
conversation with our listeners, and Ilook forward to circling back with both of
you after New Hampshire has settled down, but maybe before we get to South
Carolina and kind of see how thingsare going. Thank you both very much,
and both of you are in vehicleswith wheels and wings, travel safely
and have a great, great night. Thank you, Thank you, Bess.
(24:15):
Great to reconnect with you all,Thank you. Thanks you're listening to
Is it just me or have weall lost our minds? This is Jennifer
Horn. Thanks for tuning in andmake sure to listen for us. We
will have another another great episode foryou in just a couple of days
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
Cardiac Cowboys
The heart was always off-limits to surgeons. Cutting into it spelled instant death for the patient. That is, until a ragtag group of doctors scattered across the Midwest and Texas decided to throw out the rule book. Working in makeshift laboratories and home garages, using medical devices made from scavenged machine parts and beer tubes, these men and women invented the field of open heart surgery. Odds are, someone you know is alive because of them. So why has history left them behind? Presented by Chris Pine, CARDIAC COWBOYS tells the gripping true story behind the birth of heart surgery, and the young, Greatest Generation doctors who made it happen. For years, they competed and feuded, racing to be the first, the best, and the most prolific. Some appeared on the cover of Time Magazine, operated on kings and advised presidents. Others ended up disgraced, penniless, and convicted of felonies. Together, they ignited a revolution in medicine, and changed the world.