October 15, 2024 • 9 mins
University of Windsor Political Science department head Lydia Miljan joins Jon Liedtke on AM800 CKLW to discuss whether it's time for Prime Minister Trudeau to step down following the latest polling showing Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives continuing to gain steam.
This interview aired on AM800 CKLW
This interview aired on AM800 CKLW
Mark as Played
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
There is news coming out of Ottawa with a caucus
revolt or a mini caucus revolt of thirty to forty
liberal MPs taking publicly or at least publicly behind closed
doors to media off the record so they can't be
named publicly, going after the Prime Minister saying justin it's
(00:23):
time for you to take a walk in the snow.
Just when you think that you've hit the bottom, a
trapdoor opens up, leading to brand new depths to plummet
further downward. Two joining me to discuss is the head
of the political science department at the University of Windsor,
(00:44):
and full disclosure, my former professor, doctor Lydia Milgen, joins
me now on AM eight hundred CKLW. Doctor Milgon. Things
are not looking good.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Their fortune started, obviously, started to say when the Conservatives
chose Pera Paula as their leader. And I remember, you know,
back when you know they've may call first the pronouncements
they thought they were going to get, you know, five
points in the polls every quarter. I think they're down
five rather than up anything. It's a big risk. And
there's also the timing thing, right, so they're running out
(01:19):
of time. The next selection has to be next October,
so they have a year, which isn't you know. I
think that's what the MP's are thinking. It's like, if
you if you resign now parole parliament, let us have
a leadership race at least gives the new leader a
chance to set up the brand and to set up
their team. You don't want to do it like the
Conservatives did under Brian mulrooney and wait too long. And so,
(01:41):
you know, that was the scenario when Kim Campbell was selected,
and you know, initially it seemed to be a great choice,
the first female prime minister. She had, you know, a
lot of social issues that she had, you know, brought
the party in with you know, she could talk to talk,
she had experienced. But it was not enough for them
to get the campaign going. Basically, they just took the
(02:03):
campaign that mulrooney had planned and just plopped Kim Campbell
on it, and as we know, that led to the
worst electoral defeat in Canadian history.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
Well, this is what we saw happen right now with
Aaron O'Toole to peer paulv Right. A complete change of platform,
a complete different tone of things, and that's what the
audience really seemed to like, yeah, I.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Mean the thing is yeah, but it's also giving the
person time. I mean, the thing of peer Paul v
is now he has he has the luxury of having
a year of trying out his lines, of working on
his team, and you know, their campaign is pretty much settled.
It's very hard to throw in a new leader when
you're this late in the game and try to put
a fresh face on it. I mean, you know, so
(02:47):
who's go And then the question is who would be
that leader? Right, clearly, anybody within cabinet is probably toxic.
I can't imagine them doing any better than Trudeau and
the Conservatives has been very good at attacking the likely
heir apparent, which is Mark Conny, you know, basically pointing
out some of his conflicts, the fact that he's he's
(03:09):
you know, not declaring conflicts, that the fact that his
company's you know, robbying the government at the same time
he's advising the Liberals and there's a lot of land
minds there. So would he do any better?
Speaker 1 (03:21):
I doubt it. Well, then I guess here's the next question.
If we can't come to an agreement or on who
would be the person to replace. Do we think that
the Prime minister will step down?
Speaker 2 (03:34):
H Well, I thought he should have stepped down in February.
I mean that when I was, you know, thinking about
this last year, I thought February would have been the
sort of the great symbolic time. He could have done
his walk in the snow sort of mirrord his father,
given the party a chance to get a leadership brace
and have the new leader in place. At least by
now he's got an ego, so you know, this could
(03:55):
be a Biden thing where you know, it's just like
Biden said, I'm not going anywhere. That's a Trudeau is saying.
But he could be be pushed. And we've seen other
prime ministers who were far more popular, didn't have nearly
as bad poll numbers, get pushed out. And I'm thinking
Jean Certenda pushed out after winning three majority back to
back government, far more successful than Justin Trudeau. And but
(04:16):
again it was an internal struggle and it was people
within the party who wanted a different leader, which was
Paul Martin. I don't know if they have anybody there
right now, so it's very problematic. I think the question
of who would be the leader I think is seizing
them more than whether or not he should resign. He's
going to be gone the other year, who's going to
be voted out? Or he's got to leave on his
(04:37):
own accord. He just doesn't seem to be a person
who likes to back away from a fight.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
So again, looking at the most recent Abacus polling, it's
it's just it is a bloodbath for the Prime minister
right now for the Liberals. I saw two hundred and
twenty seats for the Conservatives if an election were held.
I think it was on Thursday last week, which is
what you need, one hundred and seventy one now under
the new ridings.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
From one sight, I mean, so it's it's might be wrong.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
It's regardless, it's a very large majority if it were
to be held today. I wonder though, the Trump effect,
that's the only thing I could think that could unseat
the momentum that the Conservatives are seeing right now. Scare
the living daylights out of Canadians if Trump becomes president.
Do you think that that could help the Prime Minister's
(05:24):
electoral fortunes by being able to cast Pierre Paualiev and
Trump in a similar light and say look at what
North North America would look like.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
Well at work. So far, they've been trying, you know,
like if it were working, they would have been up
in the polls. They've been trying to do that ever
since PAULI have got into office, and and every time,
you know, their polls go up. There's there's two things
that the liberals will try artually three One is they're
going to tie them with extremists, they're going to compare
them with Trump, or they're going to bring up the
(05:52):
abortion debate. They do it every single time, and Canadians
aren't aren't They aren't buy it. They're not they're not
taking the bait. So I've actually saw a recent poll
that more Canadians support Trump than they do Harris. I
don't know a rogue internet poll, but it's not necessarily
the case that there's a majority of Canadians who oppose Trump.
(06:16):
And then the other problem is it's a different country,
different scenarios, different personalities. It's a real stretch to compare
Paula to Trump. I mean, they're not even the same,
anywhere close to being the same age, life experience. I mean,
there's just you know, except that they both are right
of center politicians, but Republicans are far more right of
center than any conservative politician ever was.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Yeah, I don't know if that would be the silver
bullet that could help change things. Last question, while I
have you, and then i'll let you go. Going back
to the idea of these thirty to forty liberal MPs
who are conspiring behind the back of the Prime minister, Obviously,
if he wanted to find out these names, he probably
already has them. Right, Let's be honest, it's a small call.
It's a small enough caucus that he's got enough people
(06:58):
that he's able to mustard together to get these answers.
Should the Prime Minister kick them out? Should he take
a defiant stance and say, if you don't want to
be here, get out, I'll kick you out and we
can move forward without you, show that he's strong. Would
that help well?
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Then the next time the Conservatives to have a voter
non confidence, they would topple the government. The numbers don't
work otherwise, So that changes scenario completely, because then you
no longer need the Block or the NDP to vote
with the Conservatives. All you need is these rogue politicians,
especially if it's up to forty.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
So it seems like for the Prime Minister, it's just
it's a whole lot of bad options on the table
that you're giving him. Yeah, well, not that you're giving him,
but that's been laid out for him to choose. It's
a buffet of bad options.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
It's bad facts, right, He's just got a buffet of
bad facts and they're going to have to figure out
a way to get out of it.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
Now.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Again, he's got lots of different things he can do,
and I'll throw this one out. One thing he could
do is get rid of Katie Telford, because he's made
a lot of enemies within caucus, and so he could say, well,
I'm changing things at the top. I'm changing my chief
of staff. She's been the longest serving chief of staff
in the history of Canada, so you know, being in
that office for nine years is exception long. I mean
(08:10):
I remember Iam Brody, who was Harper's chief assess, saying
I lasted two years. That's a long enough time for me.
You need to shift your chiefs of staff. So that
could be one way for him to signal to the
caucus that they're changing direction, that they're not going to
be so tight because apparently the story is coming out
of the PMO is that it is really difficult to
get in touch with him, like Mark Garno couldn't have
(08:30):
face to face meetings with him, and he was Minister
of Foreign Affairs. Like that tells you how insulated he is.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
For a prime minister who was elected under the auspices
of having a non centralized, open, transparent government. It's funny
how things always seem to go back the way that
they used to be. People like their power, don't they. Doctor.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Yeah, so anyways, and open by default certainly have not
come to fruition.
Speaker 1 (08:57):
Well, we will check back in with you again at
another point along this timeline right now the question being
should he step down? Who knows what the next question
is going to be. Doctor. It's always a pleasure to
chat with you.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
Nice talking to you, John,
There is news coming out of Ottawa with a caucus
revolt or a mini caucus revolt of thirty to forty
liberal MPs taking publicly or at least publicly behind closed
doors to media off the record so they can't be
named publicly, going after the Prime Minister saying justin it's
(00:23):
time for you to take a walk in the snow.
Just when you think that you've hit the bottom, a
trapdoor opens up, leading to brand new depths to plummet
further downward. Two joining me to discuss is the head
of the political science department at the University of Windsor,
(00:44):
and full disclosure, my former professor, doctor Lydia Milgen, joins
me now on AM eight hundred CKLW. Doctor Milgon. Things
are not looking good.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Their fortune started, obviously, started to say when the Conservatives
chose Pera Paula as their leader. And I remember, you know,
back when you know they've may call first the pronouncements
they thought they were going to get, you know, five
points in the polls every quarter. I think they're down
five rather than up anything. It's a big risk. And
there's also the timing thing, right, so they're running out
(01:19):
of time. The next selection has to be next October,
so they have a year, which isn't you know. I
think that's what the MP's are thinking. It's like, if
you if you resign now parole parliament, let us have
a leadership race at least gives the new leader a
chance to set up the brand and to set up
their team. You don't want to do it like the
Conservatives did under Brian mulrooney and wait too long. And so,
(01:41):
you know, that was the scenario when Kim Campbell was selected,
and you know, initially it seemed to be a great choice,
the first female prime minister. She had, you know, a
lot of social issues that she had, you know, brought
the party in with you know, she could talk to talk,
she had experienced. But it was not enough for them
to get the campaign going. Basically, they just took the
(02:03):
campaign that mulrooney had planned and just plopped Kim Campbell
on it, and as we know, that led to the
worst electoral defeat in Canadian history.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
Well, this is what we saw happen right now with
Aaron O'Toole to peer paulv Right. A complete change of platform,
a complete different tone of things, and that's what the
audience really seemed to like, yeah, I.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Mean the thing is yeah, but it's also giving the
person time. I mean, the thing of peer Paul v
is now he has he has the luxury of having
a year of trying out his lines, of working on
his team, and you know, their campaign is pretty much settled.
It's very hard to throw in a new leader when
you're this late in the game and try to put
a fresh face on it. I mean, you know, so
(02:47):
who's go And then the question is who would be
that leader? Right, clearly, anybody within cabinet is probably toxic.
I can't imagine them doing any better than Trudeau and
the Conservatives has been very good at attacking the likely
heir apparent, which is Mark Conny, you know, basically pointing
out some of his conflicts, the fact that he's he's
(03:09):
you know, not declaring conflicts, that the fact that his
company's you know, robbying the government at the same time
he's advising the Liberals and there's a lot of land
minds there. So would he do any better?
Speaker 1 (03:21):
I doubt it. Well, then I guess here's the next question.
If we can't come to an agreement or on who
would be the person to replace. Do we think that
the Prime minister will step down?
Speaker 2 (03:34):
H Well, I thought he should have stepped down in February.
I mean that when I was, you know, thinking about
this last year, I thought February would have been the
sort of the great symbolic time. He could have done
his walk in the snow sort of mirrord his father,
given the party a chance to get a leadership brace
and have the new leader in place. At least by
now he's got an ego, so you know, this could
(03:55):
be a Biden thing where you know, it's just like
Biden said, I'm not going anywhere. That's a Trudeau is saying.
But he could be be pushed. And we've seen other
prime ministers who were far more popular, didn't have nearly
as bad poll numbers, get pushed out. And I'm thinking
Jean Certenda pushed out after winning three majority back to
back government, far more successful than Justin Trudeau. And but
(04:16):
again it was an internal struggle and it was people
within the party who wanted a different leader, which was
Paul Martin. I don't know if they have anybody there
right now, so it's very problematic. I think the question
of who would be the leader I think is seizing
them more than whether or not he should resign. He's
going to be gone the other year, who's going to
be voted out? Or he's got to leave on his
(04:37):
own accord. He just doesn't seem to be a person
who likes to back away from a fight.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
So again, looking at the most recent Abacus polling, it's
it's just it is a bloodbath for the Prime minister
right now for the Liberals. I saw two hundred and
twenty seats for the Conservatives if an election were held.
I think it was on Thursday last week, which is
what you need, one hundred and seventy one now under
the new ridings.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
From one sight, I mean, so it's it's might be wrong.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
It's regardless, it's a very large majority if it were
to be held today. I wonder though, the Trump effect,
that's the only thing I could think that could unseat
the momentum that the Conservatives are seeing right now. Scare
the living daylights out of Canadians if Trump becomes president.
Do you think that that could help the Prime Minister's
(05:24):
electoral fortunes by being able to cast Pierre Paualiev and
Trump in a similar light and say look at what
North North America would look like.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
Well at work. So far, they've been trying, you know,
like if it were working, they would have been up
in the polls. They've been trying to do that ever
since PAULI have got into office, and and every time,
you know, their polls go up. There's there's two things
that the liberals will try artually three One is they're
going to tie them with extremists, they're going to compare
them with Trump, or they're going to bring up the
(05:52):
abortion debate. They do it every single time, and Canadians
aren't aren't They aren't buy it. They're not they're not
taking the bait. So I've actually saw a recent poll
that more Canadians support Trump than they do Harris. I
don't know a rogue internet poll, but it's not necessarily
the case that there's a majority of Canadians who oppose Trump.
(06:16):
And then the other problem is it's a different country,
different scenarios, different personalities. It's a real stretch to compare
Paula to Trump. I mean, they're not even the same,
anywhere close to being the same age, life experience. I mean,
there's just you know, except that they both are right
of center politicians, but Republicans are far more right of
center than any conservative politician ever was.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Yeah, I don't know if that would be the silver
bullet that could help change things. Last question, while I
have you, and then i'll let you go. Going back
to the idea of these thirty to forty liberal MPs
who are conspiring behind the back of the Prime minister, Obviously,
if he wanted to find out these names, he probably
already has them. Right, Let's be honest, it's a small call.
It's a small enough caucus that he's got enough people
(06:58):
that he's able to mustard together to get these answers.
Should the Prime Minister kick them out? Should he take
a defiant stance and say, if you don't want to
be here, get out, I'll kick you out and we
can move forward without you, show that he's strong. Would
that help well?
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Then the next time the Conservatives to have a voter
non confidence, they would topple the government. The numbers don't
work otherwise, So that changes scenario completely, because then you
no longer need the Block or the NDP to vote
with the Conservatives. All you need is these rogue politicians,
especially if it's up to forty.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
So it seems like for the Prime Minister, it's just
it's a whole lot of bad options on the table
that you're giving him. Yeah, well, not that you're giving him,
but that's been laid out for him to choose. It's
a buffet of bad options.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
It's bad facts, right, He's just got a buffet of
bad facts and they're going to have to figure out
a way to get out of it.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
Now.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Again, he's got lots of different things he can do,
and I'll throw this one out. One thing he could
do is get rid of Katie Telford, because he's made
a lot of enemies within caucus, and so he could say, well,
I'm changing things at the top. I'm changing my chief
of staff. She's been the longest serving chief of staff
in the history of Canada, so you know, being in
that office for nine years is exception long. I mean
(08:10):
I remember Iam Brody, who was Harper's chief assess, saying
I lasted two years. That's a long enough time for me.
You need to shift your chiefs of staff. So that
could be one way for him to signal to the
caucus that they're changing direction, that they're not going to
be so tight because apparently the story is coming out
of the PMO is that it is really difficult to
get in touch with him, like Mark Garno couldn't have
(08:30):
face to face meetings with him, and he was Minister
of Foreign Affairs. Like that tells you how insulated he is.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
For a prime minister who was elected under the auspices
of having a non centralized, open, transparent government. It's funny
how things always seem to go back the way that
they used to be. People like their power, don't they. Doctor.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Yeah, so anyways, and open by default certainly have not
come to fruition.
Speaker 1 (08:57):
Well, we will check back in with you again at
another point along this timeline right now the question being
should he step down? Who knows what the next question
is going to be. Doctor. It's always a pleasure to
chat with you.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
Nice talking to you, John,
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