December 2, 2025 • 23 mins
In this conversation, Peter discusses the recent crash in the crypto markets, analyzing various factors contributing to the downturn, including inflation, institutional manipulation, and market sentiment. He highlights the impact of ETFs and institutional investors on market dynamics, as well as the potential for recovery in the coming months. Additionally, he examines global economic factors, particularly Japan's new tax policies and stimulus measures, and their implications for the crypto market. The conversation concludes with a call for community engagement and feedback.
Takeaways
00:00 Market Overview and Initial Analysis
02:46 Factors Behind the Recent Crash
06:09 Institutional Influence and Market Manipulation
09:02 Potential Future Trends and Predictions
11:55 Positive Indicators and Market Sentiment
14:52 Global Economic Factors and Their Impact
17:49 Japan's Economic Changes and Crypto Taxation
21:04 Conclusion and Community Engagement
DISCLAIMER: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial, investment, or legal advice. I am not affiliated with, nor compensated by, the project discussed—no tokens, payments, or incentives received. I do not hold a stake in the project, including private or future allocations. All views are my own, based on public information. Always do your own research and consult a licensed advisor before investing. Crypto investments carry high risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. I am not responsible for any decisions you make based on this content.
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Takeaways
- Crypto markets are experiencing significant downturns due to various factors.
- U.S. inflation rates have impacted market expectations.
- Institutional investors are playing a major role in market manipulation.
- The current market situation is described as a leverage reset.
- Quantitative tightening has ended, potentially improving liquidity.
- Investors are shifting towards safer assets amid market volatility.
- MicroStrategy continues to invest heavily in Bitcoin despite market conditions.
- Japan's new flat tax on crypto gains may attract more investors.
- A massive stimulus package in Japan could boost economic activity.
- Community feedback is encouraged to understand market sentiments better.
00:00 Market Overview and Initial Analysis
02:46 Factors Behind the Recent Crash
06:09 Institutional Influence and Market Manipulation
09:02 Potential Future Trends and Predictions
11:55 Positive Indicators and Market Sentiment
14:52 Global Economic Factors and Their Impact
17:49 Japan's Economic Changes and Crypto Taxation
21:04 Conclusion and Community Engagement
DISCLAIMER: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial, investment, or legal advice. I am not affiliated with, nor compensated by, the project discussed—no tokens, payments, or incentives received. I do not hold a stake in the project, including private or future allocations. All views are my own, based on public information. Always do your own research and consult a licensed advisor before investing. Crypto investments carry high risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. I am not responsible for any decisions you make based on this content.
🔗 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fq8FhvxET2k
Subscribe to the audio podcast:
🔗 https://bit.ly/learncardano-spotify
🔗 https://apple.co/3jEPM8C
🔗 https://learncardano.io/
Follow on Social:
🔗 https://x.com/learncardano
🔗 https://facebook.com/learncardano
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Crypto markets are crashing again, and I'm going to look
into exactly what's going on at the moment, try and
explain to you guys why the market is looking so bad.
I've got bad news and a little bit of good
news peppered throughout this video here, so make sure you
hit that thumbs up like subscribe on your way in.
My name's Peter. I took all things Cadano and crypto,
(00:22):
so let's get into it. So let's have a look
back in November here. This post was looking into why
the markets crashed back on the fourteenth of November, just
two or three weeks ago now, and we had a
look here at like US inflation came in hot than expected,
chances of rate cuts now are sharply dropped, and they
(00:43):
still look don't look that great at the moment. We
also have a look at the AI bubble bursting back
then as well, with soft Bank dumping its position in
end video and taking out five point eight billion right
before the sales the earnings report for that quarter. And
then we also had two subprime hedge funds collapse as well,
(01:06):
So lots happening back in November making the markets look
absolutely terrible. As you can see there. Now we also
now looking at some various speculations about what's happening on
this particular crash here, and you could see here this
user posted the dumping of BTC via various exchanges all
(01:28):
at the same time. Now, I'm not saying this is
a coordinated dumping of the bitcoin asset, but you know,
these exchanges could have just had stop losses and they're
protecting their positions as is, and as a result, they
triggered off a lot of these bitcoin sales and outflows
in the market. You can see there. It doesn't look
(01:49):
too good, but we do have various good write ups
about what's happening at the moment. So what happened today?
BTC dropped five k in hours, two hundred and ten
billion wipe from crypto, seven hundred million liquidations, and literally
zero bad news anywhere, not macro's politics, earnings, and not
even random thud tweets. This looks like only one thing,
(02:12):
only wells dumping charts and reset leverage, classic crypto manipulation.
And you see this is today's massive dump, and it's
not looking good. Is still going down at the moment
as well. We had a slight pickup and still continuing
down as it goes. There's various articles here that do
look into some really good reasons why this is happening,
(02:36):
and this one's from Business Insider, And one of the
big things here is crypto adoption. In terms of the
amount of users uptaking and coming into the crypto space,
it is definitely down. So crypto usage down fifty percent
of retail traders from seventeen percent this summer, so that's
mid this year. The other reason is around the amplification
(02:58):
of selling and buying of assets with the ETFs coming
in the exchange traded funds. The effects that has had
have been i'd say quite dramatic in that now larger
institutional players can come in and essentially manipulate the money,
manipulate the market. So here we go. Second reason, investors
(03:20):
are now exposed to bitcoin through ETFs a January twenty
twenty four which kicked off a six hundred percent rally,
and now with the institutions participation has boosted gains very
same exposure to bitcoin that has also now contributed to
a feedback loop of falling liquidity and heightened selling. So
(03:41):
money comes in, money comes out. I said this in
my previous videos as well, looking into the institutional money
that's coming in. Everyone's excited. Everyone wanted all that to
come in. That takes away a lot of the decentralization
of crypto assets and puts it back in the old
system and allows big institutions to manipulate and control the
(04:02):
money flows. I don't know where we're going, guys, but
that is one big reason why we're seeing the massive
outflows at the moment, because institutions can sell as they
want to. Now here, we have another post here from
top necks, and they're looking at what's happening here a
(04:23):
couple more reasons. The market's bleeding good total market cap
just five percent. Twitter is panicking, telegrams crying. But if
you look at the data, this isn't a crash. This
it's a leverage reset. We're looking to the details about that.
This is a de risking event. So all these people
that are coming into the market, they're looking at where
(04:45):
to put their assets so that they get the best returns.
And if they're putting money into these highly speculative and
volatile crypto assets, if there are some better, safer opportunities,
they're going to move into the those opportunities, and I'm
going to talk about that in a second as well.
So power speaks. There's macro fears, the PMI data release,
(05:06):
recession fears, and quantitative tightening deadlines. As of today, I
saw a news post that the quantitative tightening in the
US has officially ended and we're going to possibly look
into a quantitative easing where there'll be more money in
the ecosystem. Now, what does this mean? And this is
(05:27):
what it's all about. So this post here, this is
talking about the FED just announcing the end of quantitative tightening,
and this is what it is. The end of QT
will improve liquidity in the financial system. Looking back, QT
was put in place mid twenty twenty two to reduce
the Fed's balance sheet as part of a broader policy
(05:49):
normalization to unwind the large liquidity stimulus implemented in response
to the pandemic. So when the pandemic hit, the government
printed money to be able to spend it to help
fight the pandemic. That was required, you know, to reduce deaths.
That's the last thing people want to see. But because
(06:10):
of that massive amount of stimulus into the ecosystem, we
did see NFT markets rise crypto markets rise and a
lot of people did quite well out of that, But
now that money had to be wound back, It had
to had to tighten the purse strings and get some
of that money back, recoup their losses, reduced that overspent,
and now we're the quantitative tightening. This phase has now ended,
(06:34):
so they're thinking that they've done enough of that tightening
to be able to start spending money and injecting more
liquidity back into the markets again. So that's where we're
at the moment. But interest rates might not go down
and the inflation numbers are still a little bit higher
in the US, so we might still have to wait
until next month in January twenty twenty six to see
(06:56):
a better market outcome at the moment. So I too
do believe that this is a big de risking event.
Now if we look over it in Japan, their bond yields,
their ten year bond yields have gone up and gone
up quite a bit here, so you've seen it go
up over the last few years here, but at tween
twenty twenty twenty five, it's jumped up quite a bit
(07:18):
over the last year. It's now at one point eight
three eight percent. So essentially what's happening here is that
the Japanese government is issuing these bonds with a really
high yield return. So if the government is issuing those bonds,
investors are looking for the safe return here. So if
(07:38):
the bond yield keeps going up, more money will pour
it into that because it's a safe bet. You know
that the Japanese government will pay on those bond yields,
as opposed to putting into something that is volatile and
speculatives such as crypto assets. Why don't you just park
it into the bonds. You know you're going to get
a decent return, and this may even jump up to
(07:59):
two So two percent return on your the money there
in your bonds, that sounds pretty good. It's pretty safe.
That's a decent return there. So that's one reason why
we're seeing the shift people just de risking and moving
to safer bets so they can get the maximum yield
out of their money. Now, one of these other things
(08:21):
I am looking at the moment is this news announcements
from crypto ran and this is why the market crash
back in on the tenth of October. So this is
going back a little bit further, and this is a
really interesting thing around micro Strategy and how the big
players out there are classifying companies that hold bitcoin on
(08:43):
their balance sheet. So on exactly the tenth of October
and MSCI, the world's second biggest index company, publish the below.
They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as
their core business should be considered as companies or funds.
If there are funds, they are not included in passive indexes.
(09:05):
Why because this creates a circular loop. The funds buy assets,
get bigger, and then is included in more indices and
buys more assets. The expected ruling will be announced on
the fifteenth of January twenty twenty six, and if this
does pass, companies like MicroStrategy will be automatically removed from indices.
(09:27):
So all these indexes out there, A lot of people
invest on the stock market and just buy in these
indexes because you're essentially just buying the top ten, top fifty,
top one hundred, top five hundred companies on the stock market,
and that's probably the easiest way to invest. You don't
need to look into the various companies, understand their balance
(09:48):
sheet and what they're doing. You just buy all of them,
just buy a little bit of all of them, and
that's what these indexes are. And MSECI is looking into
whether or not micro Strategy and other companies that hold
those assets such as bitcoin should be included in those
indexes if they If micro Strategy gets delisted from these indexes,
(10:09):
that means there's going to be a big shuffle on
the index and micro Strategy won't be in there and
people won't be buying into bitcoin buy via micro Strategy
via the indexes. So that's that's what's happening here. And
if micro Strategy gets gets pulled out of it, a
lot of these hedge funds and investors that just buy
(10:29):
indexes won't be buying into micro Strategy. So that's the
problem here. So if this passes and Microstrada gets pulled out,
we may see a drop in the crypto markets again.
So January the fifteenth is another big important date that
I'm looking at to see what happens with the market.
If any of this news comes out early, it could
(10:50):
shift the market dramatically out out of speculation and who
knows right now the market the players might be pricing
this in and moving out in this particular announcement or
they might be loading up. I have no idea what's
going on, honestly, but this is something definitely you need
to look out for now. I did say I had
(11:11):
some positive news for you guys as well. And having
a look at the Bitcoin monthly returns here, the monthly
returns for December this year aren't that bad in comparison
to previous years we've normally December here you can see
it has been pretty bad except for the big harvening
(11:31):
cycles that do happen, but other years here in twenty
twenty one was negative eighteen point nine percent. The year
after that minus three point five to nine. This year
at the moment, it's mine's four point eighty five percent,
So there's nowhere near as bad as some other years
in the past. So we could be in for a
(11:54):
much better market condition to ride into twenty twenty six.
And with Trump in power in the US, we don't
really know what's going to happen, but there is a
lot of positive sentiment in regards to the crypto industry
with regulations, the Genius Act and so much more so
we may see a lot more positive news out of
the US around assets in general. Now, I thought this
(12:17):
was quite an interesting video from roll Paul, and this
was six months ago. Now let me just play this
so we have an idea of what he thinks is
happening this cycle.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
It's not a mystery. It is a repeat of the
debt cycle. They are rolling the debts. They are doing
the same thing. Each cycle is not to do with
the harving cycle, nothing to do with any of that.
It's all driven by liquidity cycle and funding of debts.
Each phase, we get phase one of the banana zone,
ban on A number one, the coreative zone. Banana number
(12:52):
two comes another correction, banana number three. So this is
the banana zone. So that's what happened in twenty twenty,
twenty twenty one. Off we go. Sorry, that was twenty seventeen,
which again looked very similar to this one. That was
the last one. Here we are now, can't be clearer
to me. I've shown you the macro evidence, the technical evidence,
(13:15):
the sentiment evidence. Everything here suggests to me that hold
onto your hats, don't fuck this up, don't just control
your tokens, don't use leverage, don't get your wallet hacked.
Just sit with it. Be careful, don't get fomo, do
all of the right things, and we will go up
to the next phase of correction. That's gonna be harder,
(13:37):
because the next one that happens, we'll have a thirty
five percent drop and you'll all say, is it over?
And you'll definitely be sure it's over, and everybody on
Twitter will tell you it's over, and it won't be over.
By our work, we suggest that because of the elongation
of the business cycle, because rates were higher for longer,
the forward looking liquidity suggests that, again probabilistically speaking, without guarantees,
(14:01):
this whole thing goes into Q one, maybe Q two
or twenty twenty six, which would align with Trump's trying
to win the midterms as well. So everything's lined up
for us, I think it started. So keep the faith,
keep building stuff, and let's keep driving sity forward with
all of this.
Speaker 1 (14:22):
All right, interesting stuff there. Leave a comment down below, guys,
let me know what you think what his prediction is like.
But yeah, we're definitely I don't know where personally, I
don't know where we're at if he's right or not,
because we did see a massive crash essentially right now,
is that the first phase correction or are we looking
(14:44):
into the second one already? We shall see you guys.
Leave a comment down below, let me know what you think. Now,
this here is also quite interesting. This is a conversation
from the bitcoin os team about narrative and what are
they talking about at the moment. So let me play
(15:04):
you guys this one as well.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
That narrative of this is it? This is one twenty
six was the bitcoin peak. We are now heading into
a bear market? Is based on a fundamental idea fundamental
narrative that we've had for well over a decade in crypto,
which is we've got this four year cycle, and if
you look at the four year cycle, the four year
(15:29):
cycle ends in the year after the halving. We're in
the year after the halving and it ends between October
and December. So right now, everyone who has been in
this market for a while or is aware of that
narrative is deeply concerned that time has run out. This
was the cycle, And maybe they're right. I think they're
probably not, but maybe they're right. But the psychological impact
(15:52):
of that is that no one wants to go risk
on right now in the crypto space. No one wants
to go risk on right now. In bitcoin because they're
very worried about being caught off side, basically becoming exit
liquidity in what is now going to be a two
year draw down. My sense is that this is having
a massive psychological effect, and what could happen, what is
(16:17):
likely to happen, is that come December we will discover
that the price is still more or less holding up.
We will then need to see in January and February
some kind of rise, and what that will do is
it will confirm for people that the four year cycle
is dead. We will get the first We can't get
confirmation that the four year cycle is dead before January
(16:38):
or February, but in January or February, if the four
year cycle is dead, that's when we're going to get
our confirmation. And then immediately we're going to see sort
of every single kol influencer, shill, you know, talking head
on Twitter talking about this is the death of the
four year cycle, and that in and of itself is
going to become a narrative driver.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
And you know what, I kind of have to agree
with the death of that four year cycle narrative. At
the moment, so Yago is building bitcoin, OS is building
the DeFi layer or bitcoin on the Kadano ecosystem. So
he's using some brilliant tech to unlock yield for bitcoin
(17:22):
holders so they can stake it or something like that
on the Kadana ecosystem and earn yield off of it
and or using zero knowledge proof. So this is some
really cool tech that's going out there, and hopefully we
do see that very soon. I've been speaking to various
teams that are building some of the tooling and infrastructure
needed to make this happen, and they're just about to
(17:44):
launch their side of things on the Kadana ecosystem to
make this happen. So very very close to all this
in the background. But this here, if he's right, and
Raoul Paul here is right as well, this extended debt
cycle here with the interest rates and whatnot coming into play,
could kill the narrative around the four year cycle. So
(18:08):
I've seen the cycles happen a couple of times now
and I've held on through crypto winters, not knowing what
to do. If this is all true, that goes going
to that will end that four year cycle narrative of
the harpenings creating that supply shock in the Bitcoin ecosystem
(18:29):
and making bitcoin go up like crazy. So that's probably
dead as we know it already. Now, this is extremely
bullish news, and this is micro Strategy doubling down. So
as we are all panicking and looking at the crypto markets,
say hey, let's sell, sale, sell. The market's going down forever.
(18:51):
This is the end, This is the end of the cycle.
Let's sell before the death spiral happens. Micro Strategy is buying.
This is absolutely saying balls of steel, I have to say.
Michael Astraate announces the formation of a one point four
to four billion USD reserve and an increase of its
BTC reserve to six hundred and fifty thousand BTC. So I,
(19:16):
from what I understand, they hold about three percent of
all the supply of bitcoin at the moment, which is
absolutely saying. So if you want to read the press
release the strategy announcement, you can links in the show
notes down below for you guys. But hats off to
Michael Saylor for buying up all that BTC. And you know,
the market could be a lot more depressed, but no,
(19:37):
he's jumped in and brought the dip absolutely crazy. Some
other things that were happening in the market at the
moment is what's happening in Japan, and Japan has implemented
a flat twenty percent tax on cryptocurrency gains. So from
what I understand, Japan had a fifty five percent tax
(19:58):
crypto gains tax cap gains tax on the assets as
they're being sold. So that's a massive amount of tax
that you'd have to pay when selling off your assets.
But now reducing that to just the flat twenty percent
is probably going to make things a lot more appealing
for Japanese investors. So one, there could be more people
(20:20):
coming into the market because they know if they have
some significant gains or the tax would be paid is
that twenty percent capital gains tax. The downside to this
is that Japan has had a lot of people buy
into crypto in the early days. So back in twenty seventeen,
for example, there's a lot of Japanese AIDA holders, and
(20:45):
with this decrease of tax, does that mean they're going
to sell their crypto assets including AIDA at the moment?
Will there be a surplus of surplus of supply now
or some sell pressure because the Japanese whales here, aid
of whales will be selling off their eight and cashing
(21:07):
in on only a twenty percent tax. I don't know.
This is pure speculation at the moment. Who knows where
the market will go. The other big news item from
Japan is this massive one hundred and thirty five billion
stimulus into their economy. This is more than what they
spent during COVID. This is a massive amount of money
(21:29):
that's going to go to various businesses, the Japanese economy
and people in general to stimulate the economy and drive
more growth. At the moment, it's quite stagnant and if anything,
people aren't seeing a good return in the Japanese economy.
So having this amount of stimulus in the economy will
(21:50):
hopefully increase investment, increase spending, and generally improve the Japanese economy.
And like I said earlier in this video update, when
there's a lot of money in the economy, there's a
lot of stimulus checks being printed out there, people look
for certain gains, They become speculative in their investments and
potentially being put into crypto assets again. So with that,
(22:15):
with this so one, we have a massive amount of
Japanese people, Japanese money coming into the economy, plus this
very low tax rate for crypto assets, we could possibly
see more retail users come into the crypto space from Japan.
Might be a good idea to start writing documentation and
(22:37):
all that stuff for onboarding crypto users in Japanese At
the moment, anyway, that's all the news I have in
this particular update in regards to what is happening and
why the crypto markets crashing at the moment. If you
learn something, if you want to leave a comment down below.
If I miss something really important, I probably did. I
(22:58):
had to skim through a lot of news articles to
try and pick out the best pieces there to give
you guys. So there's I know, there's a lot that
a lot of other bits of information that I could
have included, but it would have been like an hour
long video and that's no one's got time for that.
But leave a comment down below let me know what
you think is causing this market crash out the moment.
If you haven't done so already, hit that thumbs up
(23:19):
the like subscribe notification bell on your way out, and
I'll see you guys in the next video.
Crypto markets are crashing again, and I'm going to look
into exactly what's going on at the moment, try and
explain to you guys why the market is looking so bad.
I've got bad news and a little bit of good
news peppered throughout this video here, so make sure you
hit that thumbs up like subscribe on your way in.
My name's Peter. I took all things Cadano and crypto,
(00:22):
so let's get into it. So let's have a look
back in November here. This post was looking into why
the markets crashed back on the fourteenth of November, just
two or three weeks ago now, and we had a
look here at like US inflation came in hot than expected,
chances of rate cuts now are sharply dropped, and they
(00:43):
still look don't look that great at the moment. We
also have a look at the AI bubble bursting back
then as well, with soft Bank dumping its position in
end video and taking out five point eight billion right
before the sales the earnings report for that quarter. And
then we also had two subprime hedge funds collapse as well,
(01:06):
So lots happening back in November making the markets look
absolutely terrible. As you can see there. Now we also
now looking at some various speculations about what's happening on
this particular crash here, and you could see here this
user posted the dumping of BTC via various exchanges all
(01:28):
at the same time. Now, I'm not saying this is
a coordinated dumping of the bitcoin asset, but you know,
these exchanges could have just had stop losses and they're
protecting their positions as is, and as a result, they
triggered off a lot of these bitcoin sales and outflows
in the market. You can see there. It doesn't look
(01:49):
too good, but we do have various good write ups
about what's happening at the moment. So what happened today?
BTC dropped five k in hours, two hundred and ten
billion wipe from crypto, seven hundred million liquidations, and literally
zero bad news anywhere, not macro's politics, earnings, and not
even random thud tweets. This looks like only one thing,
(02:12):
only wells dumping charts and reset leverage, classic crypto manipulation.
And you see this is today's massive dump, and it's
not looking good. Is still going down at the moment
as well. We had a slight pickup and still continuing
down as it goes. There's various articles here that do
look into some really good reasons why this is happening,
(02:36):
and this one's from Business Insider, And one of the
big things here is crypto adoption. In terms of the
amount of users uptaking and coming into the crypto space,
it is definitely down. So crypto usage down fifty percent
of retail traders from seventeen percent this summer, so that's
mid this year. The other reason is around the amplification
(02:58):
of selling and buying of assets with the ETFs coming
in the exchange traded funds. The effects that has had
have been i'd say quite dramatic in that now larger
institutional players can come in and essentially manipulate the money,
manipulate the market. So here we go. Second reason, investors
(03:20):
are now exposed to bitcoin through ETFs a January twenty
twenty four which kicked off a six hundred percent rally,
and now with the institutions participation has boosted gains very
same exposure to bitcoin that has also now contributed to
a feedback loop of falling liquidity and heightened selling. So
(03:41):
money comes in, money comes out. I said this in
my previous videos as well, looking into the institutional money
that's coming in. Everyone's excited. Everyone wanted all that to
come in. That takes away a lot of the decentralization
of crypto assets and puts it back in the old
system and allows big institutions to manipulate and control the
(04:02):
money flows. I don't know where we're going, guys, but
that is one big reason why we're seeing the massive
outflows at the moment, because institutions can sell as they
want to. Now here, we have another post here from
top necks, and they're looking at what's happening here a
(04:23):
couple more reasons. The market's bleeding good total market cap
just five percent. Twitter is panicking, telegrams crying. But if
you look at the data, this isn't a crash. This
it's a leverage reset. We're looking to the details about that.
This is a de risking event. So all these people
that are coming into the market, they're looking at where
(04:45):
to put their assets so that they get the best returns.
And if they're putting money into these highly speculative and
volatile crypto assets, if there are some better, safer opportunities,
they're going to move into the those opportunities, and I'm
going to talk about that in a second as well.
So power speaks. There's macro fears, the PMI data release,
(05:06):
recession fears, and quantitative tightening deadlines. As of today, I
saw a news post that the quantitative tightening in the
US has officially ended and we're going to possibly look
into a quantitative easing where there'll be more money in
the ecosystem. Now, what does this mean? And this is
(05:27):
what it's all about. So this post here, this is
talking about the FED just announcing the end of quantitative tightening,
and this is what it is. The end of QT
will improve liquidity in the financial system. Looking back, QT
was put in place mid twenty twenty two to reduce
the Fed's balance sheet as part of a broader policy
(05:49):
normalization to unwind the large liquidity stimulus implemented in response
to the pandemic. So when the pandemic hit, the government
printed money to be able to spend it to help
fight the pandemic. That was required, you know, to reduce deaths.
That's the last thing people want to see. But because
(06:10):
of that massive amount of stimulus into the ecosystem, we
did see NFT markets rise crypto markets rise and a
lot of people did quite well out of that, But
now that money had to be wound back, It had
to had to tighten the purse strings and get some
of that money back, recoup their losses, reduced that overspent,
and now we're the quantitative tightening. This phase has now ended,
(06:34):
so they're thinking that they've done enough of that tightening
to be able to start spending money and injecting more
liquidity back into the markets again. So that's where we're
at the moment. But interest rates might not go down
and the inflation numbers are still a little bit higher
in the US, so we might still have to wait
until next month in January twenty twenty six to see
(06:56):
a better market outcome at the moment. So I too
do believe that this is a big de risking event.
Now if we look over it in Japan, their bond yields,
their ten year bond yields have gone up and gone
up quite a bit here, so you've seen it go
up over the last few years here, but at tween
twenty twenty twenty five, it's jumped up quite a bit
(07:18):
over the last year. It's now at one point eight
three eight percent. So essentially what's happening here is that
the Japanese government is issuing these bonds with a really
high yield return. So if the government is issuing those bonds,
investors are looking for the safe return here. So if
(07:38):
the bond yield keeps going up, more money will pour
it into that because it's a safe bet. You know
that the Japanese government will pay on those bond yields,
as opposed to putting into something that is volatile and
speculatives such as crypto assets. Why don't you just park
it into the bonds. You know you're going to get
a decent return, and this may even jump up to
(07:59):
two So two percent return on your the money there
in your bonds, that sounds pretty good. It's pretty safe.
That's a decent return there. So that's one reason why
we're seeing the shift people just de risking and moving
to safer bets so they can get the maximum yield
out of their money. Now, one of these other things
(08:21):
I am looking at the moment is this news announcements
from crypto ran and this is why the market crash
back in on the tenth of October. So this is
going back a little bit further, and this is a
really interesting thing around micro Strategy and how the big
players out there are classifying companies that hold bitcoin on
(08:43):
their balance sheet. So on exactly the tenth of October
and MSCI, the world's second biggest index company, publish the below.
They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as
their core business should be considered as companies or funds.
If there are funds, they are not included in passive indexes.
(09:05):
Why because this creates a circular loop. The funds buy assets,
get bigger, and then is included in more indices and
buys more assets. The expected ruling will be announced on
the fifteenth of January twenty twenty six, and if this
does pass, companies like MicroStrategy will be automatically removed from indices.
(09:27):
So all these indexes out there, A lot of people
invest on the stock market and just buy in these
indexes because you're essentially just buying the top ten, top fifty,
top one hundred, top five hundred companies on the stock market,
and that's probably the easiest way to invest. You don't
need to look into the various companies, understand their balance
(09:48):
sheet and what they're doing. You just buy all of them,
just buy a little bit of all of them, and
that's what these indexes are. And MSECI is looking into
whether or not micro Strategy and other companies that hold
those assets such as bitcoin should be included in those
indexes if they If micro Strategy gets delisted from these indexes,
(10:09):
that means there's going to be a big shuffle on
the index and micro Strategy won't be in there and
people won't be buying into bitcoin buy via micro Strategy
via the indexes. So that's that's what's happening here. And
if micro Strategy gets gets pulled out of it, a
lot of these hedge funds and investors that just buy
(10:29):
indexes won't be buying into micro Strategy. So that's the
problem here. So if this passes and Microstrada gets pulled out,
we may see a drop in the crypto markets again.
So January the fifteenth is another big important date that
I'm looking at to see what happens with the market.
If any of this news comes out early, it could
(10:50):
shift the market dramatically out out of speculation and who
knows right now the market the players might be pricing
this in and moving out in this particular announcement or
they might be loading up. I have no idea what's
going on, honestly, but this is something definitely you need
to look out for now. I did say I had
(11:11):
some positive news for you guys as well. And having
a look at the Bitcoin monthly returns here, the monthly
returns for December this year aren't that bad in comparison
to previous years we've normally December here you can see
it has been pretty bad except for the big harvening
(11:31):
cycles that do happen, but other years here in twenty
twenty one was negative eighteen point nine percent. The year
after that minus three point five to nine. This year
at the moment, it's mine's four point eighty five percent,
So there's nowhere near as bad as some other years
in the past. So we could be in for a
(11:54):
much better market condition to ride into twenty twenty six.
And with Trump in power in the US, we don't
really know what's going to happen, but there is a
lot of positive sentiment in regards to the crypto industry
with regulations, the Genius Act and so much more so
we may see a lot more positive news out of
the US around assets in general. Now, I thought this
(12:17):
was quite an interesting video from roll Paul, and this
was six months ago. Now let me just play this
so we have an idea of what he thinks is
happening this cycle.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
It's not a mystery. It is a repeat of the
debt cycle. They are rolling the debts. They are doing
the same thing. Each cycle is not to do with
the harving cycle, nothing to do with any of that.
It's all driven by liquidity cycle and funding of debts.
Each phase, we get phase one of the banana zone,
ban on A number one, the coreative zone. Banana number
(12:52):
two comes another correction, banana number three. So this is
the banana zone. So that's what happened in twenty twenty,
twenty twenty one. Off we go. Sorry, that was twenty seventeen,
which again looked very similar to this one. That was
the last one. Here we are now, can't be clearer
to me. I've shown you the macro evidence, the technical evidence,
(13:15):
the sentiment evidence. Everything here suggests to me that hold
onto your hats, don't fuck this up, don't just control
your tokens, don't use leverage, don't get your wallet hacked.
Just sit with it. Be careful, don't get fomo, do
all of the right things, and we will go up
to the next phase of correction. That's gonna be harder,
(13:37):
because the next one that happens, we'll have a thirty
five percent drop and you'll all say, is it over?
And you'll definitely be sure it's over, and everybody on
Twitter will tell you it's over, and it won't be over.
By our work, we suggest that because of the elongation
of the business cycle, because rates were higher for longer,
the forward looking liquidity suggests that, again probabilistically speaking, without guarantees,
(14:01):
this whole thing goes into Q one, maybe Q two
or twenty twenty six, which would align with Trump's trying
to win the midterms as well. So everything's lined up
for us, I think it started. So keep the faith,
keep building stuff, and let's keep driving sity forward with
all of this.
Speaker 1 (14:22):
All right, interesting stuff there. Leave a comment down below, guys,
let me know what you think what his prediction is like.
But yeah, we're definitely I don't know where personally, I
don't know where we're at if he's right or not,
because we did see a massive crash essentially right now,
is that the first phase correction or are we looking
(14:44):
into the second one already? We shall see you guys.
Leave a comment down below, let me know what you think. Now,
this here is also quite interesting. This is a conversation
from the bitcoin os team about narrative and what are
they talking about at the moment. So let me play
(15:04):
you guys this one as well.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
That narrative of this is it? This is one twenty
six was the bitcoin peak. We are now heading into
a bear market? Is based on a fundamental idea fundamental
narrative that we've had for well over a decade in crypto,
which is we've got this four year cycle, and if
you look at the four year cycle, the four year
(15:29):
cycle ends in the year after the halving. We're in
the year after the halving and it ends between October
and December. So right now, everyone who has been in
this market for a while or is aware of that
narrative is deeply concerned that time has run out. This
was the cycle, And maybe they're right. I think they're
probably not, but maybe they're right. But the psychological impact
(15:52):
of that is that no one wants to go risk
on right now in the crypto space. No one wants
to go risk on right now. In bitcoin because they're
very worried about being caught off side, basically becoming exit
liquidity in what is now going to be a two
year draw down. My sense is that this is having
a massive psychological effect, and what could happen, what is
(16:17):
likely to happen, is that come December we will discover
that the price is still more or less holding up.
We will then need to see in January and February
some kind of rise, and what that will do is
it will confirm for people that the four year cycle
is dead. We will get the first We can't get
confirmation that the four year cycle is dead before January
(16:38):
or February, but in January or February, if the four
year cycle is dead, that's when we're going to get
our confirmation. And then immediately we're going to see sort
of every single kol influencer, shill, you know, talking head
on Twitter talking about this is the death of the
four year cycle, and that in and of itself is
going to become a narrative driver.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
And you know what, I kind of have to agree
with the death of that four year cycle narrative. At
the moment, so Yago is building bitcoin, OS is building
the DeFi layer or bitcoin on the Kadano ecosystem. So
he's using some brilliant tech to unlock yield for bitcoin
(17:22):
holders so they can stake it or something like that
on the Kadana ecosystem and earn yield off of it
and or using zero knowledge proof. So this is some
really cool tech that's going out there, and hopefully we
do see that very soon. I've been speaking to various
teams that are building some of the tooling and infrastructure
needed to make this happen, and they're just about to
(17:44):
launch their side of things on the Kadana ecosystem to
make this happen. So very very close to all this
in the background. But this here, if he's right, and
Raoul Paul here is right as well, this extended debt
cycle here with the interest rates and whatnot coming into play,
could kill the narrative around the four year cycle. So
(18:08):
I've seen the cycles happen a couple of times now
and I've held on through crypto winters, not knowing what
to do. If this is all true, that goes going
to that will end that four year cycle narrative of
the harpenings creating that supply shock in the Bitcoin ecosystem
(18:29):
and making bitcoin go up like crazy. So that's probably
dead as we know it already. Now, this is extremely
bullish news, and this is micro Strategy doubling down. So
as we are all panicking and looking at the crypto markets,
say hey, let's sell, sale, sell. The market's going down forever.
(18:51):
This is the end, This is the end of the cycle.
Let's sell before the death spiral happens. Micro Strategy is buying.
This is absolutely saying balls of steel, I have to say.
Michael Astraate announces the formation of a one point four
to four billion USD reserve and an increase of its
BTC reserve to six hundred and fifty thousand BTC. So I,
(19:16):
from what I understand, they hold about three percent of
all the supply of bitcoin at the moment, which is
absolutely saying. So if you want to read the press
release the strategy announcement, you can links in the show
notes down below for you guys. But hats off to
Michael Saylor for buying up all that BTC. And you know,
the market could be a lot more depressed, but no,
(19:37):
he's jumped in and brought the dip absolutely crazy. Some
other things that were happening in the market at the
moment is what's happening in Japan, and Japan has implemented
a flat twenty percent tax on cryptocurrency gains. So from
what I understand, Japan had a fifty five percent tax
(19:58):
crypto gains tax cap gains tax on the assets as
they're being sold. So that's a massive amount of tax
that you'd have to pay when selling off your assets.
But now reducing that to just the flat twenty percent
is probably going to make things a lot more appealing
for Japanese investors. So one, there could be more people
(20:20):
coming into the market because they know if they have
some significant gains or the tax would be paid is
that twenty percent capital gains tax. The downside to this
is that Japan has had a lot of people buy
into crypto in the early days. So back in twenty seventeen,
for example, there's a lot of Japanese AIDA holders, and
(20:45):
with this decrease of tax, does that mean they're going
to sell their crypto assets including AIDA at the moment?
Will there be a surplus of surplus of supply now
or some sell pressure because the Japanese whales here, aid
of whales will be selling off their eight and cashing
(21:07):
in on only a twenty percent tax. I don't know.
This is pure speculation at the moment. Who knows where
the market will go. The other big news item from
Japan is this massive one hundred and thirty five billion
stimulus into their economy. This is more than what they
spent during COVID. This is a massive amount of money
(21:29):
that's going to go to various businesses, the Japanese economy
and people in general to stimulate the economy and drive
more growth. At the moment, it's quite stagnant and if anything,
people aren't seeing a good return in the Japanese economy.
So having this amount of stimulus in the economy will
(21:50):
hopefully increase investment, increase spending, and generally improve the Japanese economy.
And like I said earlier in this video update, when
there's a lot of money in the economy, there's a
lot of stimulus checks being printed out there, people look
for certain gains, They become speculative in their investments and
potentially being put into crypto assets again. So with that,
(22:15):
with this so one, we have a massive amount of
Japanese people, Japanese money coming into the economy, plus this
very low tax rate for crypto assets, we could possibly
see more retail users come into the crypto space from Japan.
Might be a good idea to start writing documentation and
(22:37):
all that stuff for onboarding crypto users in Japanese At
the moment, anyway, that's all the news I have in
this particular update in regards to what is happening and
why the crypto markets crashing at the moment. If you
learn something, if you want to leave a comment down below.
If I miss something really important, I probably did. I
(22:58):
had to skim through a lot of news articles to
try and pick out the best pieces there to give
you guys. So there's I know, there's a lot that
a lot of other bits of information that I could
have included, but it would have been like an hour
long video and that's no one's got time for that.
But leave a comment down below let me know what
you think is causing this market crash out the moment.
If you haven't done so already, hit that thumbs up
(23:19):
the like subscribe notification bell on your way out, and
I'll see you guys in the next video.
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