March 19, 2025 • 10 mins
Mike Miller from the college hoops newsletter "Field of 68" joined Todd Walker on Wednesday to brakdown the NCAA Tournament draw.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Time to talk college hoops. Of course, the first four
is underway in Dayton, and we are going to talk
with Mike Miller. He is with the Field of sixty eight.
They do a newsletter or I guess it's an email letter,
and we call it now, right, Mike.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Yeah, you know, we're pretty much eager for you to
call whatever you like. It's right.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Field of sixty eight is what it's called. And as
it would imply, it's all pointing towards this tournament, which
has sixty eight teams. And of course North Carolina's entry
was somewhat controversial, Mike. But as you look back, what
was the biggest surprise for you of the last four,
in the first four out or maybe a seed, what
(00:43):
were some of the biggest surprises from your point of view?
Speaker 2 (00:48):
I think people I would agree with most people that
it was a surprise to see North Carolina in only
because they were so bad in their quad one games, right,
even one to twelve in those quad one games. And
to me, if you have thirteen opportunities to beat an
Nculay tournament team and you only win one of those games,
it's tough to make the case you to be in there.
(01:08):
I gets. They played well in those games, and they
most of them weren't blowouts, but it's like it's a
hard it's a hard pill to swallow, especially when West
Virginia is sitting right there with a comparable record in
terms of overall record perform and they've done most of
their work even without Tucker Degrees, who's their coaches, kids,
(01:30):
who who was there when they had big wins earlier season,
But they were just fine without them during the regular
season two. So I think those were interesting. Honestly. One
of the biggest seeding surprises I think was Memphis is
a five. And I say that is a surprise, not
because Memphis isn't worthy of a five seed. They completely are,
but the metrics would tell us that Traditionally, the seeding
(01:53):
committee gives Memphis more of an eight to nine seed
versus the five, So it was nice to see them rewarded.
I'll tell you the team that that's a team that
got properly seated, a team that is completely underseated as
Gonzaga as an eight in that and out in Indianapolis
in that in that Midwest region, because the metrics would
(02:15):
tell you that Gonzaga is a top ten team, and
if you're Houston and you're playing them potentially in the
second round, you're not happy to see Gonzaga right there
staring in the face.
Speaker 1 (02:27):
No question about it. We're talking with Mike Miller from
Field of sixty eighth college basketball newsletter. Was somewhat a
surprised Xavier got in, wasn't it?
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Yeah? I suppose that's true. I think maybe it's a
it's a case of everyone wanted to believe Xavier should
be in, but Xavier, you know, when it comes down
to tournament resume, there's not much difference between Oklahoma, Arkansas, Xavier, Texas,
North Carolina, all those teams, they're all in the same bucket.
(02:59):
I think is where Xavier benefits is that they were
really good over the last months of the season, right
where maybe the last six weeks of the season where
they kind of played their way in other teams, I
think you kind of looked at them and thought, are
they going to get in? Are they not going to
get in? But Xavier's only lost twice in February, so
(03:23):
you know, that's, to me, is a pretty strong indicator
that it was a team that the committee looked at
and thought, look, this was this was the program that
did what it needed to do down the stretch. It
beat the teams and needed to do. It's got a
couple of marquee wins, and when that Marquette went over Yukon,
(03:44):
you know it's and I think the way you look
at that compared to the rest of the public teams,
not so bad that Xavier got in.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
Yeah, I think so as well. Mike Miller from the
Field of sixty eight newsletter is with us. So when
you look at yet, then the real contender is to
win this thing. I'm not going to ask you to
make an overall pick, but who are some teams you
think are just really locks to make the final four
or be in the running here?
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Well, provided Cooper flags ankle isn't the mess, I think
Duke has a terrific path to the final four. You know,
I think they're half of the region is filled with
teams that they're going to match up with really well.
I think there's probably a pretty good chance of upsets,
and they're half in the bracket anyway. The twelve to
(04:34):
five game of Liberty, Oregon and the thirteen to four
game of Akron Arizona, both of those could go Duke's
way and make a really nice pass for them. I
also think that if you're in the mood for a
team that can make a run and you might not
have seen him coming, I think Illinois is a team
(04:55):
that has a good chance there. You know, they don't
have enough power power to beat Texas or Xavier, whoever
they play in the first round, and given that Kentucky's
is still banged up and is so totally driven on offense,
I think Illinois is a good shot to get to
the Sweet sixteen. And then once you get there, anything
is available. And if you want a really long shot
(05:16):
to make it far, I think everyone has circled. You
see San Diego as a team capable of doing that.
You know they're going to give Michigan fits because they're
going to turn the ball over a lot. Michigan's probably
going to have twenty twenty five turnovers in that game.
On the boards, you see San Diego is going to
win that game, and then it will be the same
(05:37):
story whether they play text A and m or Yale
in the next round. And if you have you see
San Diego playing you know, Auburn most likely in the
sweet sixteen. That's another interesting component of Hey, this is
a double BI seed that has won thirty games this
season is not going to be seen as as as
(05:58):
a team that is just out of the blue. They've
been good all year, so I would I would point
to Illinois if you're looking for a lower seeded power
conference team, and UC San Diego if you're looking for
a mid major team that can make a run.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Mike Miller with the Field of sixty eight newsletter, speaking
of the likes of Illinois and Michigan, did the Big
Ten get slighted a little bit in favor of the SEC?
What do you think?
Speaker 2 (06:22):
Yeah, you know, I didn't mention him earlier, but Indiana
has had as good a case as any program to
get that last at large bid. Ohio State played its
way out of the tournament towards the end there, and
Nebraska certainly did. But in terms of seeding, it'll be interesting.
I think Michigan State's asked to the Elite eight is
(06:45):
pretty good. You know, it's setting up to be a
pretty good season for tom Izzo. I think Maryland's appropriately
seated as a four. You know, they're going to face
a team that's been in the Insular Tournament last years
in Grand Canyon, but they've got the they've got the
starting five to take care of them and really get
to the sweet sixteen. I would I would think they
(07:09):
got the big ten, gots some respect. Was Wisconsin as
a three? I don't know if they got any respect
for where they got seeded. Wisconsin's gonna get sent out
to Denver to play at altitude where if they're going
to play teams like they're gonna play Montana at first,
and Montana's used to play in at altitude, and depending
on what happens that by U VCU game BYUS used
to play in at altitude too, So I'm not sure
(07:30):
Wisconsin got done a whole lot of favors in terms
of seeding, And the same could be said for Purdue. Purdue
was probably right. I can't remember the seed list, but
Purdue is probably right on the cut line for four
or five. But their their first round opponent in high
Point is going to be a pretty tall order for
to beat them and get into the round of thirty two.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
All right, Mike, to close it out, who were give
me a team? He said, Duke was or of the
one you really like? Providing Cooper flag is healthy among
the top seeds, let's just say the one in two seeds,
who are which team do you think is going to
crash out the earliest?
Speaker 2 (08:13):
Among the one and two's they would crash out the earliest.
It sure seems like the two would be Alabama. Part
of that is because they won't have Brant Nelson when
they play Friday against Robert Morris, and they're they might
not have them on Saturday or on Sunday, and when
they play the Saint Mary's Vanderbilt winner, you know, and
(08:35):
Saint Mary's is a team that is a complete polar
opposite of Alabama when it comes to playing style and
what they're trying to emphasize. So that's something to keep
in mind there. And then you know, Vanderbilt already played
Alabama once this year Alabama, and they hung with them
until the final five minutes or so, when they end
(08:58):
up losing by I think teen or fifteen points. But
I think Alabama without Granton Nelson is in kind of
a dangerous spot. And if you're looking for one seed
that is in a dangerus spot, I think I'm worried
about how Auburn's playing. I think their draw is pretty
good now depend on how you feel about then playing
Louisville in Lexington potentially in the second round. The way
(09:21):
Auburn's playing it, just I know they've they've played really
good teams, and that they've lost to A and M
and Alabama and Tennessee and three of their last four games.
So if you're going to have losses, those are the
losses to take. But that early mid season flair that
Auburn had, it just doesn't It doesn't seem like they're
there anymore. So those would be the two that I
(09:42):
would focus on for high high seeds that would be
in danger of upsets.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
That's Mike Miller with the Field of sixty eight newsletter.
Just to search Field of sixty eight on any of
your socials are online and you'll find it. You can
subscribe to their daily email and we'll keep you inform
on what's happening with college troops. Mike, we appreciate you
taking time for us.
Speaker 2 (10:04):
Hey, thanks, good luck with your brackets this week.
Time to talk college hoops. Of course, the first four
is underway in Dayton, and we are going to talk
with Mike Miller. He is with the Field of sixty eight.
They do a newsletter or I guess it's an email letter,
and we call it now, right, Mike.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Yeah, you know, we're pretty much eager for you to
call whatever you like. It's right.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Field of sixty eight is what it's called. And as
it would imply, it's all pointing towards this tournament, which
has sixty eight teams. And of course North Carolina's entry
was somewhat controversial, Mike. But as you look back, what
was the biggest surprise for you of the last four,
in the first four out or maybe a seed, what
(00:43):
were some of the biggest surprises from your point of view?
Speaker 2 (00:48):
I think people I would agree with most people that
it was a surprise to see North Carolina in only
because they were so bad in their quad one games, right,
even one to twelve in those quad one games. And
to me, if you have thirteen opportunities to beat an
Nculay tournament team and you only win one of those games,
it's tough to make the case you to be in there.
(01:08):
I gets. They played well in those games, and they
most of them weren't blowouts, but it's like it's a
hard it's a hard pill to swallow, especially when West
Virginia is sitting right there with a comparable record in
terms of overall record perform and they've done most of
their work even without Tucker Degrees, who's their coaches, kids,
(01:30):
who who was there when they had big wins earlier season,
But they were just fine without them during the regular
season two. So I think those were interesting. Honestly. One
of the biggest seeding surprises I think was Memphis is
a five. And I say that is a surprise, not
because Memphis isn't worthy of a five seed. They completely are,
but the metrics would tell us that Traditionally, the seeding
(01:53):
committee gives Memphis more of an eight to nine seed
versus the five, So it was nice to see them rewarded.
I'll tell you the team that that's a team that
got properly seated, a team that is completely underseated as
Gonzaga as an eight in that and out in Indianapolis
in that in that Midwest region, because the metrics would
(02:15):
tell you that Gonzaga is a top ten team, and
if you're Houston and you're playing them potentially in the
second round, you're not happy to see Gonzaga right there
staring in the face.
Speaker 1 (02:27):
No question about it. We're talking with Mike Miller from
Field of sixty eighth college basketball newsletter. Was somewhat a
surprised Xavier got in, wasn't it?
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Yeah? I suppose that's true. I think maybe it's a
it's a case of everyone wanted to believe Xavier should
be in, but Xavier, you know, when it comes down
to tournament resume, there's not much difference between Oklahoma, Arkansas, Xavier, Texas,
North Carolina, all those teams, they're all in the same bucket.
(02:59):
I think is where Xavier benefits is that they were
really good over the last months of the season, right
where maybe the last six weeks of the season where
they kind of played their way in other teams, I
think you kind of looked at them and thought, are
they going to get in? Are they not going to
get in? But Xavier's only lost twice in February, so
(03:23):
you know, that's, to me, is a pretty strong indicator
that it was a team that the committee looked at
and thought, look, this was this was the program that
did what it needed to do down the stretch. It
beat the teams and needed to do. It's got a
couple of marquee wins, and when that Marquette went over Yukon,
(03:44):
you know it's and I think the way you look
at that compared to the rest of the public teams,
not so bad that Xavier got in.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
Yeah, I think so as well. Mike Miller from the
Field of sixty eight newsletter is with us. So when
you look at yet, then the real contender is to
win this thing. I'm not going to ask you to
make an overall pick, but who are some teams you
think are just really locks to make the final four
or be in the running here?
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Well, provided Cooper flags ankle isn't the mess, I think
Duke has a terrific path to the final four. You know,
I think they're half of the region is filled with
teams that they're going to match up with really well.
I think there's probably a pretty good chance of upsets,
and they're half in the bracket anyway. The twelve to
(04:34):
five game of Liberty, Oregon and the thirteen to four
game of Akron Arizona, both of those could go Duke's
way and make a really nice pass for them. I
also think that if you're in the mood for a
team that can make a run and you might not
have seen him coming, I think Illinois is a team
(04:55):
that has a good chance there. You know, they don't
have enough power power to beat Texas or Xavier, whoever
they play in the first round, and given that Kentucky's
is still banged up and is so totally driven on offense,
I think Illinois is a good shot to get to
the Sweet sixteen. And then once you get there, anything
is available. And if you want a really long shot
(05:16):
to make it far, I think everyone has circled. You
see San Diego as a team capable of doing that.
You know they're going to give Michigan fits because they're
going to turn the ball over a lot. Michigan's probably
going to have twenty twenty five turnovers in that game.
On the boards, you see San Diego is going to
win that game, and then it will be the same
(05:37):
story whether they play text A and m or Yale
in the next round. And if you have you see
San Diego playing you know, Auburn most likely in the
sweet sixteen. That's another interesting component of Hey, this is
a double BI seed that has won thirty games this
season is not going to be seen as as as
(05:58):
a team that is just out of the blue. They've
been good all year, so I would I would point
to Illinois if you're looking for a lower seeded power
conference team, and UC San Diego if you're looking for
a mid major team that can make a run.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Mike Miller with the Field of sixty eight newsletter, speaking
of the likes of Illinois and Michigan, did the Big
Ten get slighted a little bit in favor of the SEC?
What do you think?
Speaker 2 (06:22):
Yeah, you know, I didn't mention him earlier, but Indiana
has had as good a case as any program to
get that last at large bid. Ohio State played its
way out of the tournament towards the end there, and
Nebraska certainly did. But in terms of seeding, it'll be interesting.
I think Michigan State's asked to the Elite eight is
(06:45):
pretty good. You know, it's setting up to be a
pretty good season for tom Izzo. I think Maryland's appropriately
seated as a four. You know, they're going to face
a team that's been in the Insular Tournament last years
in Grand Canyon, but they've got the they've got the
starting five to take care of them and really get
to the sweet sixteen. I would I would think they
(07:09):
got the big ten, gots some respect. Was Wisconsin as
a three? I don't know if they got any respect
for where they got seeded. Wisconsin's gonna get sent out
to Denver to play at altitude where if they're going
to play teams like they're gonna play Montana at first,
and Montana's used to play in at altitude, and depending
on what happens that by U VCU game BYUS used
to play in at altitude too, So I'm not sure
(07:30):
Wisconsin got done a whole lot of favors in terms
of seeding, And the same could be said for Purdue. Purdue
was probably right. I can't remember the seed list, but
Purdue is probably right on the cut line for four
or five. But their their first round opponent in high
Point is going to be a pretty tall order for
to beat them and get into the round of thirty two.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
All right, Mike, to close it out, who were give
me a team? He said, Duke was or of the
one you really like? Providing Cooper flag is healthy among
the top seeds, let's just say the one in two seeds,
who are which team do you think is going to
crash out the earliest?
Speaker 2 (08:13):
Among the one and two's they would crash out the earliest.
It sure seems like the two would be Alabama. Part
of that is because they won't have Brant Nelson when
they play Friday against Robert Morris, and they're they might
not have them on Saturday or on Sunday, and when
they play the Saint Mary's Vanderbilt winner, you know, and
(08:35):
Saint Mary's is a team that is a complete polar
opposite of Alabama when it comes to playing style and
what they're trying to emphasize. So that's something to keep
in mind there. And then you know, Vanderbilt already played
Alabama once this year Alabama, and they hung with them
until the final five minutes or so, when they end
(08:58):
up losing by I think teen or fifteen points. But
I think Alabama without Granton Nelson is in kind of
a dangerous spot. And if you're looking for one seed
that is in a dangerus spot, I think I'm worried
about how Auburn's playing. I think their draw is pretty
good now depend on how you feel about then playing
Louisville in Lexington potentially in the second round. The way
(09:21):
Auburn's playing it, just I know they've they've played really
good teams, and that they've lost to A and M
and Alabama and Tennessee and three of their last four games.
So if you're going to have losses, those are the
losses to take. But that early mid season flair that
Auburn had, it just doesn't It doesn't seem like they're
there anymore. So those would be the two that I
(09:42):
would focus on for high high seeds that would be
in danger of upsets.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
That's Mike Miller with the Field of sixty eight newsletter.
Just to search Field of sixty eight on any of
your socials are online and you'll find it. You can
subscribe to their daily email and we'll keep you inform
on what's happening with college troops. Mike, we appreciate you
taking time for us.
Speaker 2 (10:04):
Hey, thanks, good luck with your brackets this week.
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