11/30/24 - Tampa Bay Downs Race 5

Nate gets back to basics and goes against a soft favorite in this maiden turf route!

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, it's a Saturday, November thirtieth edition of Mets Bets.
Hi everybody, I am Nate Mets, And on today's episode,
we're going to quickly dive in to race five on
Tampa Bay's Saturday card again, Race five going a mile
and a sixteenth on the turf, and it all starts
by looking at the favorite. That's what I always like
to do. Look at the favorite, Judge is it a
good favorite? Is it not a good favorite? And I

(00:21):
think American dream Maker, the number eight horse, a three
to one morning line favorite, is a a fine horse,
maybe one that will win this race, but not one
that I'm going to be betting on. We are going
against the favorite in this scenario. This horse is a
maiden technically still it won back at Colonial in late

(00:43):
August of this year, but was placed eight through disqualification,
So okay, it should have won. It did cross the
finish line first at least, and I think a lot
of people are going to see that. That'll jump off
the page and it will attract them, and it'll tract
a lot of dollars because you're assumption is, well, if
this horse has already won a race, it's better than
every other horse in this race that hasn't you know,

(01:06):
it hasn't broken their maiden yet. I'm not so sure.
She ended up running at Backqueduct in a Grade three race,
and you know, you go into graded stakes territory, it's
very very difficult and ran seventh pretty well, beaten no response,
and now drops back down to that maiden level, which
she's still eligible for because she was placed eight through
disqualification back a couple months ago. I'm not looking at

(01:29):
her though, I'm gonna I think that's gonna be. She's
gonna be over bet and we're gonna find a little
bit of a price maybe with the number six in Chant.
In Chant now trained by Michael Deaney. It was previously
trained by Brandon Walsh, one of my favorite trainers that's
in more Kentucky based, but love Brendan Walsh. She started
her career off at Ellis Park, ran second on debut,

(01:50):
then ran at Keenland and ran fourth, and then ran
third at Churchill Down. So four or three very quality efforts,
just kind of outmatched in those races, and now taking
on Tampa Bay territory, I just think that I think
that Enchant is going to be taking on a lot
lighter of competition than what she had been seeing up
in the Bluegrass State, and I think that she will

(02:12):
be maybe hope, hopefully at least floating up a little
bit in odds. I'd like to see her stay at
seven to two, maybe four to one or higher if
we can get it. Then we look over at the
number five betula. I think that's how you pronounce it,
btula bitu bethula. Hmm. Either way, this horseeshipped over from
Ireland and had her first race in America at Gulf

(02:34):
Stream Park back in September, and Sant just didn't really
run that well. She was nervous in the gate and
showed okay energy, maybe too much energy was spent. She
ran fifth there, but she raced against a lot of
very very solid horses back in Ireland. And I think
maybe with her coming to America, getting that race on

(02:54):
American turf, now, maybe she's got one under her belt
and this next time she can figure something out. She's
with a new trainer, Bethany Bombgardner is her trainer now,
and maybe she'll have something to show. I don't know,
we'll wait and find out. She's my alternate pick in
case Enchant does not run, but I'm excited to see
both of these. Let's take down a favorite here in
RaSE five, maybe find a price and hopefully cash a

(03:16):
lot of tickets today. Metts Bets has been doing okay
here out of the gate, a lot of positive rois
throughout the card. You can find all of my picks
on Twitter as always, at Nate Mets or at Mets Bets.
I always retweet it or whatever, repost it on x now,
whatever it's called. Guys, have a great Saturday. We'll see
you next week with more Mets Bets action and good luck.