12/13/24 - Tampa Bay Downs Stakes Saturday

Nate covers the stakes action at Tampa Bay Downs and expects Junior Alvarado to be very very tough to beat.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, welcome back everybody to Mets Bets. It is
a Saturday, December fourteenth edition of the show, a steak
Saturday edition of the show. As we've got a couple
of Florida Sire Stakes running at Tampa Bay Downs, Race
two and Race six, and we'll dive into them right now.
I mean, I try to keep these quick and if
we're going to cover two races, we got to go
kind of speedy. Now. The first one that I want

(00:20):
to talk about is race two on the card. It
is the Marion County Florida Sire Stakes, going for one
hundred thousand dollars colts and gelding's three year olds and
up and on this dirt track seven furlongs. I am
looking at the number six, Loco A Barrio Junior Alvarado.
He's here for a reason, right. He doesn't come over
to Tampa Bay Downs from Gulf Stream or from Churchill

(00:42):
and Kentucky wherever if he does not think that he's
got a live shot to win. And I think he's
got a good one. Local A Barrio ended up winning
last time out in a stakes race at Gulf Stream
Park and beat the likes of Big Martini who's the
other kind of logical choice here. It's the second choice
on the morning line Lokua Barrio's eight to five, and
I think beat Big Martini on the square after watching

(01:05):
the replay, and I just think that this horse is
definitely spotted well and should be very competitive in this spot.
Eight to five. You're probably not going to get that.
I think we get somewhere closer to even money. But
I also think Big Martini is gonna also be bet
down two to one in the morning line. We'll be
closer to even money too with Sonny Leona board And look,

(01:26):
I just don't really like Big Martini in this spot,
especially at that kind of a low price. So if
you are going to look for any kind of value,
maybe the number three Cozy Rius could be an option.
Dropping in class, has been running fourth in some grade
threes up at Monmouth and now racing in this Florida
Sire Stakes. I think that it's got a chance to

(01:47):
maybe provide a little bit of value, especially underneath in
some exotics, maybe an exacta or a trifecta, although I
wouldn't play a trifecta in a six or five horse field.
Now let's go on to the number six or the
sixth race on the card. It is the City of Ocala,
Florida Sire Stakes. This time we've got Phillyan Mayor's three
year olds and up going seven furlongs on the dirt.

(02:08):
And there is a massive favorite in this spot, the
number one, Nick Style. Who I mean, if she runs
her normal race, she is going to womp this field.
She has been running very competitive races up in New
York and in Florida. She broke her maiden in Florida.
She's only lost once in her life and that was
two yeah ways and means so one of the best
Phillies in all of America and that's the only one

(02:32):
that she lost to. So yeah, I think that Nick
Style is a very very very likely winner in this spot.
Will I bet her heavily at two to five, Absolutely not,
But I think that Nick Style certainly is one that
you should be keeping an eye on. Enjoy this race.
I don't know if anyone else can catch Nick Style,
but she is down at the rail. Maybe she gets

(02:54):
pinched a little bit. Our disaster it's a lot of
speed door outside and our Disaster has been pretty competitive.
How competitive is she competitive enough to keep up with
like a ways and means or a Nick Style. I
don't think so. But maybe Beth's Dream is also kind
of interesting here too. The number four horse, Beth's Stream
has been a big time winner in Florida, but has

(03:17):
not gone up against a horse, has not succeeded against
a horse such as Nick Style. So if Nick Style
runs into some trouble, best Dream a likely winner and
maybe a better bet at a higher price. But I
definitely don't think that any horse on paper at least
matches up with Nick Styles. So let's go and have
a big day Junior Alvarado. Again, I just don't like

(03:38):
betting a lot of money on such a short priced favorite.
And with that, I think that this is a good
example of a race that you just may want to
sit back and enjoy, right, or you can still bet
on it, maybe bet just like the minimum or something
like that. Don't bet your entire bank account on this race.
I just don't see any real value in it unless
indeed you are playing against this pretty impressive favorite in

(04:03):
Nick's style. And again, I think beth Stream would be
that horse that I would like to play if I'm
playing this race at all, So I hope everyone has
a great day at the track. If you're there down
in Tampa, if you're going to turf Way today, if
you're going to Fairground, wherever you are going today, just
make sure that you Betsmart, have fun and we'll catch
you next Wednesday with more Tampa Bay downs racing here

(04:26):
on Mets Bets. Thanks everyone for tuning in, and good luck.