November 21, 2024 • 15 mins
If you’re a trader, you’re constantly doing battle with ONE enemy. An adversary who can make things more complicated than they need to be...who can be distracted by narratives, politics, and irrelevant earnings trends...who can commit serious “chart crimes”...and more. The enemy? Yourself. That’s what Brian Lund, Publisher of The Lund Loop, warns about in this week’s MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast episode.
A retail trader who began trading stocks in 1985, Brian now helps educate fellow traders online. He begins by discussing why “Trading isn’t easy, but it doesn’t have to be complicated”...and laying out the three-step process he uses before entering any position. The key to long-term success in his view? Figuring out your methodology and then doing it “over and over and over again.” We then discuss the benefit of participating in trading communities and discussion groups, as well as one potential drawback to keep in mind. Brian also covers his preferred technical indicators and favorite trading timeframe, which he believes offers the best profit opportunities while also allowing you to avoid having to micromanage positions.
Next, we pivot to a discussion of current market conditions – including why the post-election surge in stocks could mark a short-term top in a longer-term uptrend. We also discuss Bitcoin’s big run and what to keep in mind as it nears $100,000...one AI stock he finds particularly attractive...and what the interplay between financials and other sectors could tell us about where equity markets go from here. Lastly, Brian previews what he’ll cover at the 2025 MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Las Vegas, scheduled for Feb. 17-19 at the Paris Las Vegas. Click here to register: https://www.lasvegasmoneyshow.com/?scode=061246
A retail trader who began trading stocks in 1985, Brian now helps educate fellow traders online. He begins by discussing why “Trading isn’t easy, but it doesn’t have to be complicated”...and laying out the three-step process he uses before entering any position. The key to long-term success in his view? Figuring out your methodology and then doing it “over and over and over again.” We then discuss the benefit of participating in trading communities and discussion groups, as well as one potential drawback to keep in mind. Brian also covers his preferred technical indicators and favorite trading timeframe, which he believes offers the best profit opportunities while also allowing you to avoid having to micromanage positions.
Next, we pivot to a discussion of current market conditions – including why the post-election surge in stocks could mark a short-term top in a longer-term uptrend. We also discuss Bitcoin’s big run and what to keep in mind as it nears $100,000...one AI stock he finds particularly attractive...and what the interplay between financials and other sectors could tell us about where equity markets go from here. Lastly, Brian previews what he’ll cover at the 2025 MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Las Vegas, scheduled for Feb. 17-19 at the Paris Las Vegas. Click here to register: https://www.lasvegasmoneyshow.com/?scode=061246
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
So who is my guest this week? On his ex profile,
he describes himself as a trader. On his market focused
substack page, he promises readers a review of today's action
and a look at the profit opportunities for the next
trading day.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
He's also a very witty writer if you follow his work.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
Self described solid drummer, a terrible poker player, and someone
who apparently really hates Earl gray t, which we're going
to have to get into.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
His name is Brian Lund.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
He's publisher of the Lund Loop, and he's ready to
talk markets for this week's up episode.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Brian, welcome to the podcast.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
You've been reading my Twitter profile? Huh?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
I have it tea follow your work. It's great and
you know it's unfortunate what happened to you have Starbucks
the other day?
Speaker 3 (00:41):
But hopefully no right, what a tragedy.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Anyvay.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
This is the first time I've had you on the podcast.
So why don't you start by talking a little bit
about your background and what it is you do.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Yeah. So, look, I'm a retail trader, never been an
institutional trader. About a month after I turned eighteen, back
in nineteen eighty five, I walked into a Sears because
back then they used to have Dean Witter brokerages in Seers.
So right between the Craftsmen tools and the ken Moore washers,
I walked up to the broker on duty and said,
(01:11):
I'd like to buy three hundred shares of Altos computers.
That was my first trade, and I've been a retail
trader ever since.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
Great, great, yeah they got girls stocks and stocks and
socks days.
Speaker 4 (01:22):
Huh yeah yeah, all right, well again so these days,
you know, I follow some of the big picture stuff
you do on anecdo and some of what you do
for the one lube talk a little bit about what
it is that the organization does and kind of how
it works for traders.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Yeah, so you know, I always say that trading isn't easy,
but it doesn't have to be complicated. And I think
everybody goes on that natural arc when they start trading.
They want to throw every indicator in there, they want
to do every study. You know, we've seen chart crimes before.
My whole idea around the market, after doing this for
thirty seven years, is to simplify it. So I'm always
(01:57):
looking for two to three major things, and this is
what I talk about in the London one is I
always want to know what stage the market's in, right,
are we in a risk off or a risk on?
And where we are in that you know, continuum, because
it's so much different when you're trading with a tailwind
a posted to a headwind. Then once I determine what
the market situation is, you know, I'm trying to find
(02:20):
trade ideas that present me with the best risk reward
opportunities because as we all know, if you're trying to
take trades that where that's out of balance, it's going
to be really tough, right. So, and then after that,
I'm using technical analysis and I don't use any fundamental analysis.
I just try to keep it very simple. I use
moving averages, I use support and resistance lines, sometimes trend lines,
(02:43):
and that's it. And just try to keep it really
simple and keep it really boring, because I think you know,
the dirty secret about trading is it's not supposed to
be exciting. It's supposed to be very cookie cutter. You
figure out what your methodology is, what works for you,
and you just do it over and over and over again.
As long as that is producing new profits, then that's
the name of the game.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
Yeah, let me ask you about the sort of social
aspect and the social learning aspect of trading. I mean,
it seems like obviously you have what discord discussion groups
and things like that. It's simply so many people are
learning to trade and continue to educate themselves that way.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
So I'm kind of curious as to what your thoughts
are on that.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
Well. Look, it's a double edged sword. I think if
you're in the wrong discord group or you're on the
wrong platform, it can be bad. It's all about curation, right,
and the more fine tuned your curation is the better.
And what I mean by that is, you know, you
should be following or engaging with people that are really trading,
that are using a methodology. They're not just out there
trying to sell a newsletter or sell a system. I
(03:42):
think we have a lot of what I call social
traders out there that are not really trading, but they're
kind of in the business of trading. That's why with
my discord, you know, with the one loop, it's really
great because everybody is in there for one reason. It's
to help everyone else get better what they're doing. You know,
I have this rule that we don't talk politics in there.
(04:03):
We don't talk sports, and we don't talk macroma. Absolutely
any one of those three and you get kicked right out.
So we focus on the markets, we focus on what
we're there to do, and it's a good community with
really good curation.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
Yeah, I'm glad you brought the political issue because I
know you posted the other day about how, you know,
people have to keep perspective in this market.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
I mean emotions.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
We're running wild heading up into the election and clearly
after that. So how does a good trader take that,
you know, separate themselves from that.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
Well, I think that's where technical analysis comes in, because
politics is just another distraction, right. It could be it
could be earnings, it could be a narrative about a story,
it could be you know, we've seen obviously a lot
of this around meme stocks and alt coins, and when
you're following technical analysis, it just filters all that out, right,
Like you can have a best political story, right, or
(04:53):
you can have the best narrative behind a great operator
in a company as long as the technicals are confirming that.
That's great, But one stay diverge. You got to go
with the technicals, right and every time that I've ignored
that advice, my advice to myself, and I've gone with
the narrative. That's when I've had my biggest losses. So
politics is just another version of that, that narrative fundamental,
(05:15):
non objective way of looking at the markets.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
So let's talk a little bit about timeframes and indicators.
I mean again, I have all kinds of traders on
the show. Some are ultra short term traders, some are
swing traders and so on.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Where do you kind of fit in in that range?
Speaker 1 (05:29):
And you know, what do you like or find the
most useful indicators in this current market?
Speaker 3 (05:33):
Yeah, So I always tell my subscribers if you find
that I'm scalping, that's a bad sign, right because the
shorter term I'm going that means the less opportunities there
are in the market. I think fat pitch in the
market is swing trading. That is where you get the
best bang for your buck, meaning the most potential for
profit with the least you know, having to micromanager position. Unfortunately,
(05:56):
the market doesn't always give us an environment where you
can swing trade. But as I've gotten older, I've gotten
better being more patient and waiting for those times when
the market is you know, when the odds are in
my favor. I say that trading is somewhat of a
young man's game, especially if you're like a day trader
and you want to be looking at like five minute
charts or tick charts. I did that for years. I'm
(06:18):
in a different place, you know, I'm fifty seven, I've
got a family, I've got a life outside of the market.
So for me, it's it's swing trading is really the
best opportunity I'll do, you know, a day trade here
and there, or even to scalp if something looks interesting.
But for the most part, I tend to be in
that intermediate term timeframe.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
Are you seeing any issues, any problems sort of trip
ups that your listener subscribers are bringing up more these days.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
I'm just kind of curious that there's issues.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
That you could you are running into a lot in
terms of helping people in this market environment.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
Well, I think something you alluded to before. You know,
whether it's politics or whether it's news stories. There's so
much more noise in the market than when I started
doing this in the a nineties, so I think people
do get tripped by that, But ultimately it all comes
back to the same thing. And this is what I'm
going to be talking about when I'm at the money
show is our biggest enemy is always the person in
(07:12):
the mirror, right.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
I mean, you can have.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
The best system for finding winning stocks, you can even
have good methodologies for risk management, but if you undermine
them because of some emotional quirk you have that you
don't even know you have, and it all goes out
the windows. So I think focusing on someone's own emotions
they're on psychology, that's always going to be the biggest
(07:35):
hurdle for any trader.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
Sure, I know it's going to be basically an eternity
between now and February when you're in Vegas. I won't
ask you what you plan to say about the markets then.
But with the markets that we have now, what are
your thoughts here on the environment? Obviously we had the
huge post election rally, we've retraced some of that.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
How do you see things shaking out?
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Yeah, that's a great question. So look like we said,
let's keep politics out of this. However, gut from doing
this for so long. That big pop we had after
the election that kind of felt a little exuberant to me.
It felt almost like I would say, like a blowof top,
not in the sense like that's the end of the
(08:14):
bowl market, but that we just got ahead of ourselves.
I mean, if you look at the SPX in the
two years running up into the election, right, we're just
you know, everyone knows we've been in this massive bull run,
and then the election results come out, we gap higher.
So I think some things are ahead of themselves. I
think we need a little bit of a pullback as
we record this. We're going into Thanksgiving weekend or week
(08:36):
next week, generally one of the more bullish weeks. If
we could just go sideways this week, if we just
consolidate sideways, I think that would give us a nice
range where a lot of stocks would set up and
we could define our risk reward. So, you know, short term,
I think we got a little bit ahead of ourselves,
but I think overall, in the long term, I think
we're obviously still in a massive up trend.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
Okay, and I wanted to ask about the breath issue
of the market. I don't know how closely you follow
that and how much a concerned you were A doesn't,
but I know obviously we had back in the day
the mag seven Mark, and now it seems like we
have a lot more sector participation.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
Any thoughts on that and kind of what that means
moving forward?
Speaker 3 (09:11):
So that kind of falls into more of the fundamentals
that I try not to pay attention to. I mean,
here's the way I do it, right. If I want
to pay attention to some sort of macroeconomic or more
fundamental thing, I outsource that. Like I know people that
do that really well. Like you've had the guys from
All Star Charts on the podcast before. They're great, right,
That's where I'll go to and I'll I'll maybe pick
(09:32):
up some information there. I try to ignore most of
that though. I try to just focus on price action.
Like with all fundamental indicators or stories, if you have
them at your back, right, if they if they align
with what your technicals are doing, that's great, Like I
love that. But if they don't, then I just try
to ignore them.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
Got it?
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Well, Then let's talk technically briefly about a couple of other
asset lasts.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
I mean Bitcoin.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
Obviously we all know the story there, the crypto presidency, whatever.
What are your thoughts on the big move we've seen
there coming after a pretty good year frankly.
Speaker 3 (10:06):
Yeah, again, it does feel a little bit short term,
like it's gotten ahead of itself. I know everyone's got
target on one hundred thousand. I think it's dangerous to
think that that has to happen.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
You know.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
One of the things I tell my subscribers is that
you should never get too married to a theory, because
it's not so much that that theory may or may
not work out. It's that when you're so focused on that,
you're not open to what could happen. And I think
one of the greatest examples of that was like in
October of twenty twenty two, who thought that the housing
stocks were going to go on a run. Then right
(10:39):
we had massive inflation. Interest rates are going to the roof,
and people were like, they weren't even thinking about that
because they were thinking about the market's going to go lower,
and then you know, they just went on this massive run.
So I think when it comes to bitcoin right now,
it does feel a little bit ahead of itself. Again,
I'm always I'm always interested in getting into stocks or
(11:01):
coins when they're coming out of a base, not when
they're extended. So I think probably needs some backing and filling.
But you know who knows. With bitcoin, it's it's a
whole different animal. As you know, you've done this for
a long time. It just doesn't trade the same way
stocks do. So you know, anything could happen.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
Yeah, I guess that would lead to one or two
last questions here before I kind of summarize things, And
that's anything that looks attractive to you that maybe might
be off people's radar because it's not there's no good
narrative behind it, anything technically speaking that might be turning
that corner like you just mentioned.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
Yeah, so I'm gonna just contradict everything I said about
technicals and not paying attention to stories. Right now, there's
a stock that I've been watching for a long time AI, right.
I think it's C three dot AI. Right, It's a
it's a AI play and it has not gotten out
of its own way, and I keep watching that, keep watching.
The reason I keep watching it is because CEO, the founder,
(11:53):
Ted Siebel from Sebel Systems, is just a fantastic operator.
And if anyone knows him from back in the day,
this is a guy who is one of Larry Ellison's
top guys in Oracle. He had some suggestions on how
oracles should go. Larry said no, so he quit. He
started his own company, Seeble Systems. Larry Ellison said, We're
going to crush you, and about nine or ten years
(12:14):
later he had to buy the company for six billion.
This guy is a massive operator. He survived being gored
by an elephant in Africa. You can read that story.
And so just today they announced that they are starting
a partnership with Microsoft for enterprise software for AI. And
the stock of course is popping big. So I like
(12:35):
when that narrative that I've been following for a long
time is coinciding with the technicals. Now we'll continue, Will
it fall through? I don't know, but that's something I've
really been watching and I'm keeping my eye on that company.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
Great. Great.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
I guess one last thing I'd say is any groups
that kind of fit the bill to any that you
think are turning, whether it's financial industrials or anything like that,
or do just not really get into the sort of
sector analysis when it.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
Comes to charting, No I do.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
I mean right now again, as we record this going
into Thanksgiving next week, a lot of sectors actually look weak.
You know, we've seen we've seen semi start to roller.
We saw XBI right, the biotechs just get hammered. Now
we have Nvidia tomorrow, so that could change. Everything kind
of looks weak now except for banking, right, And as
long as XLF and Carrie are moving to new highs,
(13:22):
it's really hard for the market to come in too much.
So I'm going to watch those to see do these
other sectors firm up and start to go in the
same direction as x XLF, or does XLF start to
weaken and start to go in the same direction as
these other sectors. And right now it's it's a coin.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
Flip, got it?
Speaker 4 (13:38):
Got it?
Speaker 1 (13:39):
Okay, Well, as we wrap things up, I mean again,
you're going to be joining us for the twenty twenty
five Money Show Traders Expo in Las Vegas that's in.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
February, and I found it's very interesting topic. You have.
Your biggest trading obstacle is to look in them essentially, look.
Speaker 1 (13:50):
In the mirror, briefly summarize what people are going to
hear or what you might be passing on there if
somebody's going to be coming to your session.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
Yeah, So I'm going to go through some of the
way that we self sabotage ourselves in the market, and
I'm going to take a different tact. I know a
lot of people have probably read the books like The
Discipline Trader Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. Great books,
but they're a little esoteric. They don't really apply. I
don't think too much in the real world. So I'm
going to talk about some real world ways in which
(14:18):
we sabotage ourselves, and then I'm going to go through
three or four I wouldn't say solutions, but ways you
can mitigate those and try to make it so that
they don't really impact your trading or you're investing.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
Great well, Brian again, thank you so much for insights.
Speaker 1 (14:33):
Viewers, if you're watching this you want to learn more
from Brian is going to be speaking at that event,
the Money Show Traders exper Las Vegas. It runs February
seventeen to nineteen at the Paris Las Vegas Resort.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
You can find more details and click on the link
to register. Blow Brian, thanks again for your time. Really
appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
Yeah, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
We'll have more interviews for you every week, so I
encourage you to subscribe to The Money Master's podcast. So
you can stay up to date with the insights from
top money experts. You can follow me on Twitter at
real mike Larson and follow money Show for more investing
and trading content on Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube at money Show.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
Thanks for listening, See you next time.
So who is my guest this week? On his ex profile,
he describes himself as a trader. On his market focused
substack page, he promises readers a review of today's action
and a look at the profit opportunities for the next
trading day.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
He's also a very witty writer if you follow his work.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
Self described solid drummer, a terrible poker player, and someone
who apparently really hates Earl gray t, which we're going
to have to get into.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
His name is Brian Lund.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
He's publisher of the Lund Loop, and he's ready to
talk markets for this week's up episode.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Brian, welcome to the podcast.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
You've been reading my Twitter profile? Huh?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
I have it tea follow your work. It's great and
you know it's unfortunate what happened to you have Starbucks
the other day?
Speaker 3 (00:41):
But hopefully no right, what a tragedy.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Anyvay.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
This is the first time I've had you on the podcast.
So why don't you start by talking a little bit
about your background and what it is you do.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Yeah. So, look, I'm a retail trader, never been an
institutional trader. About a month after I turned eighteen, back
in nineteen eighty five, I walked into a Sears because
back then they used to have Dean Witter brokerages in Seers.
So right between the Craftsmen tools and the ken Moore washers,
I walked up to the broker on duty and said,
(01:11):
I'd like to buy three hundred shares of Altos computers.
That was my first trade, and I've been a retail
trader ever since.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
Great, great, yeah they got girls stocks and stocks and
socks days.
Speaker 4 (01:22):
Huh yeah yeah, all right, well again so these days,
you know, I follow some of the big picture stuff
you do on anecdo and some of what you do
for the one lube talk a little bit about what
it is that the organization does and kind of how
it works for traders.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Yeah, so you know, I always say that trading isn't easy,
but it doesn't have to be complicated. And I think
everybody goes on that natural arc when they start trading.
They want to throw every indicator in there, they want
to do every study. You know, we've seen chart crimes before.
My whole idea around the market, after doing this for
thirty seven years, is to simplify it. So I'm always
(01:57):
looking for two to three major things, and this is
what I talk about in the London one is I
always want to know what stage the market's in, right,
are we in a risk off or a risk on?
And where we are in that you know, continuum, because
it's so much different when you're trading with a tailwind
a posted to a headwind. Then once I determine what
the market situation is, you know, I'm trying to find
(02:20):
trade ideas that present me with the best risk reward
opportunities because as we all know, if you're trying to
take trades that where that's out of balance, it's going
to be really tough, right. So, and then after that,
I'm using technical analysis and I don't use any fundamental analysis.
I just try to keep it very simple. I use
moving averages, I use support and resistance lines, sometimes trend lines,
(02:43):
and that's it. And just try to keep it really
simple and keep it really boring, because I think you know,
the dirty secret about trading is it's not supposed to
be exciting. It's supposed to be very cookie cutter. You
figure out what your methodology is, what works for you,
and you just do it over and over and over again.
As long as that is producing new profits, then that's
the name of the game.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
Yeah, let me ask you about the sort of social
aspect and the social learning aspect of trading. I mean,
it seems like obviously you have what discord discussion groups
and things like that. It's simply so many people are
learning to trade and continue to educate themselves that way.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
So I'm kind of curious as to what your thoughts
are on that.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
Well. Look, it's a double edged sword. I think if
you're in the wrong discord group or you're on the
wrong platform, it can be bad. It's all about curation, right,
and the more fine tuned your curation is the better.
And what I mean by that is, you know, you
should be following or engaging with people that are really trading,
that are using a methodology. They're not just out there
trying to sell a newsletter or sell a system. I
(03:42):
think we have a lot of what I call social
traders out there that are not really trading, but they're
kind of in the business of trading. That's why with
my discord, you know, with the one loop, it's really
great because everybody is in there for one reason. It's
to help everyone else get better what they're doing. You know,
I have this rule that we don't talk politics in there.
(04:03):
We don't talk sports, and we don't talk macroma. Absolutely
any one of those three and you get kicked right out.
So we focus on the markets, we focus on what
we're there to do, and it's a good community with
really good curation.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
Yeah, I'm glad you brought the political issue because I
know you posted the other day about how, you know,
people have to keep perspective in this market.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
I mean emotions.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
We're running wild heading up into the election and clearly
after that. So how does a good trader take that,
you know, separate themselves from that.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
Well, I think that's where technical analysis comes in, because
politics is just another distraction, right. It could be it
could be earnings, it could be a narrative about a story,
it could be you know, we've seen obviously a lot
of this around meme stocks and alt coins, and when
you're following technical analysis, it just filters all that out, right,
Like you can have a best political story, right, or
(04:53):
you can have the best narrative behind a great operator
in a company as long as the technicals are confirming that.
That's great, But one stay diverge. You got to go
with the technicals, right and every time that I've ignored
that advice, my advice to myself, and I've gone with
the narrative. That's when I've had my biggest losses. So
politics is just another version of that, that narrative fundamental,
(05:15):
non objective way of looking at the markets.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
So let's talk a little bit about timeframes and indicators.
I mean again, I have all kinds of traders on
the show. Some are ultra short term traders, some are
swing traders and so on.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Where do you kind of fit in in that range?
Speaker 1 (05:29):
And you know, what do you like or find the
most useful indicators in this current market?
Speaker 3 (05:33):
Yeah, So I always tell my subscribers if you find
that I'm scalping, that's a bad sign, right because the
shorter term I'm going that means the less opportunities there
are in the market. I think fat pitch in the
market is swing trading. That is where you get the
best bang for your buck, meaning the most potential for
profit with the least you know, having to micromanager position. Unfortunately,
(05:56):
the market doesn't always give us an environment where you
can swing trade. But as I've gotten older, I've gotten
better being more patient and waiting for those times when
the market is you know, when the odds are in
my favor. I say that trading is somewhat of a
young man's game, especially if you're like a day trader
and you want to be looking at like five minute
charts or tick charts. I did that for years. I'm
(06:18):
in a different place, you know, I'm fifty seven, I've
got a family, I've got a life outside of the market.
So for me, it's it's swing trading is really the
best opportunity I'll do, you know, a day trade here
and there, or even to scalp if something looks interesting.
But for the most part, I tend to be in
that intermediate term timeframe.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
Are you seeing any issues, any problems sort of trip
ups that your listener subscribers are bringing up more these days.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
I'm just kind of curious that there's issues.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
That you could you are running into a lot in
terms of helping people in this market environment.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
Well, I think something you alluded to before. You know,
whether it's politics or whether it's news stories. There's so
much more noise in the market than when I started
doing this in the a nineties, so I think people
do get tripped by that, But ultimately it all comes
back to the same thing. And this is what I'm
going to be talking about when I'm at the money
show is our biggest enemy is always the person in
(07:12):
the mirror, right.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
I mean, you can have.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
The best system for finding winning stocks, you can even
have good methodologies for risk management, but if you undermine
them because of some emotional quirk you have that you
don't even know you have, and it all goes out
the windows. So I think focusing on someone's own emotions
they're on psychology, that's always going to be the biggest
(07:35):
hurdle for any trader.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
Sure, I know it's going to be basically an eternity
between now and February when you're in Vegas. I won't
ask you what you plan to say about the markets then.
But with the markets that we have now, what are
your thoughts here on the environment? Obviously we had the
huge post election rally, we've retraced some of that.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
How do you see things shaking out?
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Yeah, that's a great question. So look like we said,
let's keep politics out of this. However, gut from doing
this for so long. That big pop we had after
the election that kind of felt a little exuberant to me.
It felt almost like I would say, like a blowof top,
not in the sense like that's the end of the
(08:14):
bowl market, but that we just got ahead of ourselves.
I mean, if you look at the SPX in the
two years running up into the election, right, we're just
you know, everyone knows we've been in this massive bull run,
and then the election results come out, we gap higher.
So I think some things are ahead of themselves. I
think we need a little bit of a pullback as
we record this. We're going into Thanksgiving weekend or week
(08:36):
next week, generally one of the more bullish weeks. If
we could just go sideways this week, if we just
consolidate sideways, I think that would give us a nice
range where a lot of stocks would set up and
we could define our risk reward. So, you know, short term,
I think we got a little bit ahead of ourselves,
but I think overall, in the long term, I think
we're obviously still in a massive up trend.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
Okay, and I wanted to ask about the breath issue
of the market. I don't know how closely you follow
that and how much a concerned you were A doesn't,
but I know obviously we had back in the day
the mag seven Mark, and now it seems like we
have a lot more sector participation.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
Any thoughts on that and kind of what that means
moving forward?
Speaker 3 (09:11):
So that kind of falls into more of the fundamentals
that I try not to pay attention to. I mean,
here's the way I do it, right. If I want
to pay attention to some sort of macroeconomic or more
fundamental thing, I outsource that. Like I know people that
do that really well. Like you've had the guys from
All Star Charts on the podcast before. They're great, right,
That's where I'll go to and I'll I'll maybe pick
(09:32):
up some information there. I try to ignore most of
that though. I try to just focus on price action.
Like with all fundamental indicators or stories, if you have
them at your back, right, if they if they align
with what your technicals are doing, that's great, Like I
love that. But if they don't, then I just try
to ignore them.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
Got it?
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Well, Then let's talk technically briefly about a couple of other
asset lasts.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
I mean Bitcoin.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
Obviously we all know the story there, the crypto presidency, whatever.
What are your thoughts on the big move we've seen
there coming after a pretty good year frankly.
Speaker 3 (10:06):
Yeah, again, it does feel a little bit short term,
like it's gotten ahead of itself. I know everyone's got
target on one hundred thousand. I think it's dangerous to
think that that has to happen.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
You know.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
One of the things I tell my subscribers is that
you should never get too married to a theory, because
it's not so much that that theory may or may
not work out. It's that when you're so focused on that,
you're not open to what could happen. And I think
one of the greatest examples of that was like in
October of twenty twenty two, who thought that the housing
stocks were going to go on a run. Then right
(10:39):
we had massive inflation. Interest rates are going to the roof,
and people were like, they weren't even thinking about that
because they were thinking about the market's going to go lower,
and then you know, they just went on this massive run.
So I think when it comes to bitcoin right now,
it does feel a little bit ahead of itself. Again,
I'm always I'm always interested in getting into stocks or
(11:01):
coins when they're coming out of a base, not when
they're extended. So I think probably needs some backing and filling.
But you know who knows. With bitcoin, it's it's a
whole different animal. As you know, you've done this for
a long time. It just doesn't trade the same way
stocks do. So you know, anything could happen.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
Yeah, I guess that would lead to one or two
last questions here before I kind of summarize things, And
that's anything that looks attractive to you that maybe might
be off people's radar because it's not there's no good
narrative behind it, anything technically speaking that might be turning
that corner like you just mentioned.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
Yeah, so I'm gonna just contradict everything I said about
technicals and not paying attention to stories. Right now, there's
a stock that I've been watching for a long time AI, right.
I think it's C three dot AI. Right, It's a
it's a AI play and it has not gotten out
of its own way, and I keep watching that, keep watching.
The reason I keep watching it is because CEO, the founder,
(11:53):
Ted Siebel from Sebel Systems, is just a fantastic operator.
And if anyone knows him from back in the day,
this is a guy who is one of Larry Ellison's
top guys in Oracle. He had some suggestions on how
oracles should go. Larry said no, so he quit. He
started his own company, Seeble Systems. Larry Ellison said, We're
going to crush you, and about nine or ten years
(12:14):
later he had to buy the company for six billion.
This guy is a massive operator. He survived being gored
by an elephant in Africa. You can read that story.
And so just today they announced that they are starting
a partnership with Microsoft for enterprise software for AI. And
the stock of course is popping big. So I like
(12:35):
when that narrative that I've been following for a long
time is coinciding with the technicals. Now we'll continue, Will
it fall through? I don't know, but that's something I've
really been watching and I'm keeping my eye on that company.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
Great. Great.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
I guess one last thing I'd say is any groups
that kind of fit the bill to any that you
think are turning, whether it's financial industrials or anything like that,
or do just not really get into the sort of
sector analysis when it.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
Comes to charting, No I do.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
I mean right now again, as we record this going
into Thanksgiving next week, a lot of sectors actually look weak.
You know, we've seen we've seen semi start to roller.
We saw XBI right, the biotechs just get hammered. Now
we have Nvidia tomorrow, so that could change. Everything kind
of looks weak now except for banking, right, And as
long as XLF and Carrie are moving to new highs,
(13:22):
it's really hard for the market to come in too much.
So I'm going to watch those to see do these
other sectors firm up and start to go in the
same direction as x XLF, or does XLF start to
weaken and start to go in the same direction as
these other sectors. And right now it's it's a coin.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
Flip, got it?
Speaker 4 (13:38):
Got it?
Speaker 1 (13:39):
Okay, Well, as we wrap things up, I mean again,
you're going to be joining us for the twenty twenty
five Money Show Traders Expo in Las Vegas that's in.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
February, and I found it's very interesting topic. You have.
Your biggest trading obstacle is to look in them essentially, look.
Speaker 1 (13:50):
In the mirror, briefly summarize what people are going to
hear or what you might be passing on there if
somebody's going to be coming to your session.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
Yeah, So I'm going to go through some of the
way that we self sabotage ourselves in the market, and
I'm going to take a different tact. I know a
lot of people have probably read the books like The
Discipline Trader Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. Great books,
but they're a little esoteric. They don't really apply. I
don't think too much in the real world. So I'm
going to talk about some real world ways in which
(14:18):
we sabotage ourselves, and then I'm going to go through
three or four I wouldn't say solutions, but ways you
can mitigate those and try to make it so that
they don't really impact your trading or you're investing.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
Great well, Brian again, thank you so much for insights.
Speaker 1 (14:33):
Viewers, if you're watching this you want to learn more
from Brian is going to be speaking at that event,
the Money Show Traders exper Las Vegas. It runs February
seventeen to nineteen at the Paris Las Vegas Resort.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
You can find more details and click on the link
to register. Blow Brian, thanks again for your time. Really
appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
Yeah, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
We'll have more interviews for you every week, so I
encourage you to subscribe to The Money Master's podcast. So
you can stay up to date with the insights from
top money experts. You can follow me on Twitter at
real mike Larson and follow money Show for more investing
and trading content on Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube at money Show.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
Thanks for listening, See you next time.
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