November 19, 2024 • 59 mins
In this episode of the Money Masters Podcast, we bring you highlights from a recent X Space featuring top financial experts discussing market trends, investment strategies, and upcoming MoneyShow events.Host Mike Larson, Editor-in-Chief at MoneyShow, previews the Sarasota MoneyShow Masters Symposium (Dec 5-7), sharing insights on the economy, interest rates, and alternative investments. Guest speakers Jim Bianco, Carely Garner, and Jason Bodner dive into the bond market, small-cap opportunities, commodities, and more. Key topics include:
- The largest short positions in bonds and their implications.
- Seasonality trends in stocks and commodities.
- Insights on Bitcoin and its evolving role in the financial system.
- Actionable investment strategies for 2024.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Everybody.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
I'm actually gonna be at some of the upcoming Money
Show stuff, probably the one in Vegas in February, but
I know that there's some amazing ones that are coming
up a buch sooner. These guys are in top tier conferences, education,
everything around those areas.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
We've got some of the speakers.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
That are gonna be at the events coming up on
stage right now, so you're in for a treat for
the audience. Is gonna be the perfect way to wrap
up your week in the market.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Let's get right into things.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
I'll try the mic over to you.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
Mike can get us rolling Hi perfectly.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Just so you know, we've got a silver fox an
eer I think is Jason Bondner's other Twitter and he
just emailed.
Speaker 4 (00:33):
Me and said that's what he's on. So if you
see somebody request the scot him.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
Yeah, Hi, sweet, Yeah, great, Well, welcome everybody, Glad you
could join us.
Speaker 4 (00:41):
I'm Mike Larson, the editor in chief at Money Show.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
I also MC our live event, so I'll be hosting
the event we've been talking about here. It's gonna be
the Sarasota Money Show Master Symposium December fifth to seventh
at the Hight Regency, Sarasota.
Speaker 4 (00:55):
Great news.
Speaker 5 (00:56):
You know.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
A few weeks ago, obviously we had the hurricane and
we're kind of on pins and needles making sure every
thing would be all right.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
It is.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
The property is great, everything's all set down here. Can't
wait to welcome you guys to the event. The link
in there, I'll give you some details on who's going
to be speaking.
Speaker 4 (01:09):
It's a threefold day program.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
We've got a little bit of everything, some trading speakers,
some you know, general strategists, people speaking out stocks, alternative
investments again, a little bit of everything. And we're also
gonna be doing the Money Show University program, which is
kind of aimed at a younger trader investor audience. We're
starting to incorporate that. We did that in Orlando a
couple weeks back, we're doing it in Sarasota in December,
(01:33):
and as Gav mentioned, we're going to be having our event,
the bigger event, the Full Size Money Show Traders Expo
event We're doing at the Paris in February seventeenth, nineteenth.
That's coming up, and that's going to have a little
more of an element of that as well. So a
lot of exciting things coming up. We hope to see
as many of you as possible in person at these events.
Some of the virtual stuff we do in between shows
(01:54):
at moneyshow dot com.
Speaker 4 (01:55):
You know, if you're not able to travel, we get it.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
We also have a lot of virtual events where we'll
have some of our speakers join us and talk about
what they're seeing in the markets at those events online
as well, so.
Speaker 4 (02:05):
Kind of kick things off.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
I think I'm just gonna give a little bit overview
of what I'm seeing in the markets, and we're going
to go around the table. We're joined by four of
our speakers from the Sarasota event December. We've got Jim Bianco,
We've got Jason Bodner, We've got Carly Garner, We've got
Nancy Tendlers. You're gonna get some good perspectives from all
these speakers. I've been able to have the privilege to
see them at past events to talk to them for
(02:27):
our money Masters podcast we do, and really, you know,
these speakers are at the top of their game. They're
gonna be some great insights. I'm not going to just
give you the big picture view on what's going on
in the world in the markets, but they're.
Speaker 4 (02:37):
Also gonna give you actionable recommendations, you know, which is
what we all come to these things for.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
Right, The idea is to get an idea to three dozens,
however many you can come back and put them to
work in your own portfolio. And really that's what ultimately
pays off and makes it all worthwhile, so that, you know,
it's funny, I kind of look at the markets here
in my theme this week, we've been the own goal team.
Speaker 4 (02:59):
If you want soccer, you know what an own goal is.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
It's when you screw up and kick the ball on
your own net versus let the other team do it
for you. And you know, post election, we had a
big run in market, so we had a lot of
operations about growth, uh you know, the new administration, what
it's going to mean in terms of tax policy, regulatory
policy and so on, and sort of looser market hand
which has allowed stocks to run the prime is, especially
(03:21):
in the last few days a week or so, the
bond market's been pushing back. You know, the bond market
is saying, uh, we want to hear something. We want
to hear some fiscal discipline, at least pledges that you know,
sure we're gonna have a big deficit. Sure we're gonna
have a big debt, but we're going to try and
incorporate some fiscal discipline to that as well. It hasn't
seen it so uh, you know, yield to up far
(03:44):
enough and fast enough, and we're starting to see that impact, uh,
you know, impact the markets overall.
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Nanta, We've got your your mic not on.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
Mute if you knew nothing, any background noise, just why
But in any event, So, I think what we're seeing
now is some pushback from the bond market. We have
I've really seen sort of a bone thrown to the
bond market, a pledge of some level of discipline, and
so that's I think what's leading to some of this volatility.
Of course, we've also had the FED come out there,
We've had a couple of speakers, including J. Powell, come
(04:13):
out and kind of slow walk a little bit the
idea that we have to cut rates as much as
the markets were maybe expecting.
Speaker 4 (04:19):
So that's you know, that's also been a part of this.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
So a lot of the quote unquote Trump trades are
coming under a little bit of pressure.
Speaker 4 (04:25):
I mean, we're certainly holding gains and many different assets.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
From from the dollar to bitcoin and so on, and
the stock market overall, but definitely some some give back
there as I think we're seeing some of that some
of that element come in there.
Speaker 4 (04:39):
So that's kind of where I'm at with the markets.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
I you know, I've been on a lot of these
spaces over over the last year. I've really had a
privilege to talk to you guys and kind of share
my my thesis, which I've just shorthanded as be bold.
Speaker 5 (04:50):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
You know, there's times to be boring when it comes
to your investment approach. There's times you want to own
more defensive assets, more defensive sectors and so on.
Speaker 4 (04:58):
And there's times you want to go on the offense.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
You want to own the growthier stuff with the sectors
and names that do better in a growing economy with
a good economic.
Speaker 4 (05:06):
And interest rate backdrop.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
But I will say more, you know, in the shorter term,
I think if we don't get some of this own
goal problem fixed, I think we're gonna be in for
some volatility through the rest of the year and it
could be an issue, you know, again just maybe derailing
a little bit some of that Santa Claus rally.
Speaker 4 (05:22):
People typically expect. So that's what I've got.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
I think I'll probably start with Jim Bianco and hand
it over because I know when he and I spoke recently,
he was all over this interest rate story and has
talked about that being kind of the one flying the
ointment here in terms of a potential market threat. So Jim,
why don't you go ahead and take the floor and
talk a little bit about what you're seeing.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Yeah, thanks Mike, and thanks for inviting me on the call.
Looking forward to the discussion. But I like your own
goal metaphor, because I think that's what the bond market
is basically trying to say. Here, Look, Trump won, We're
going to get text cuts, we're going to get deregulation,
we get end the call right now, everybody just plow
into double levered s andps because it's going to go
(06:02):
up fifty percent every year from here on out. By bitcoin,
it's going to go up to you know, five hundred
thousand in the next couple of years. Thank you very much,
Drive home safely. What ends that? What is the thing
that stops that? The idea that if we start doing
that and people start feeling that way, we're a going
to run a huge deficit. B We're probably going to
have a gigantic wealth effect, and we're going to have
(06:24):
inflation or the fear of inflation. So as people think
that that we're just going to go to the moon,
so will interest rates, and interest rates will be the
break or the counterbalance to letting markets just go and
go and go from here. And that's where I think
(06:45):
that the push pull in the market, because for every action,
there's a reaction. The action of Trump winning and deregulation
and tax cuts and massive stimulus and throw in the
FED cutting rates as well too, the reaction is going
to be in the bond market, saying you're going to
create inflation, or at least the potential for inflation. You're
going to create a big wealth effect, You're going to
(07:06):
create strong growth. No one wants to own bonds at
four and a half percent. The ten year hit four
and a half percent today. They're going to only be
interested in at much much higher interest rates, and that
will be a drag on the real economy. So they
are the counterbalance to this whole move. Otherwise, without them,
if you want to say no yields of peak yields
(07:30):
are going to go down inflation's not a problem, then
we're back to my original statement. Let's just all go
into double levered smps and let's just all buy bitcoin
because they're all going to go up huge in the
next couple of years and we don't need to overthink it.
It's going to be the bond market that's going to
be the counterbalance to this whole thing.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Great, thanks for the opening statement there, Jim, Nancy was
having some audio problems.
Speaker 4 (07:53):
You might be able to join us again, but in
the meantime, I'm going to move over to Carly Garner.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Let her jump in here and kind of give her big,
big picture overview of what you're seeing.
Speaker 5 (08:01):
Carl, how are you may, I'm good, good, Thank you. Obviously,
Jim is a much smarter person than I am, so
I'm not gonna I'm not gonna necessarily go against that idea,
but I think I look at things in a little
bit different timeframe.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
For me.
Speaker 5 (08:16):
When I see the stock market is overvalued as it
is and the bond market is stretched on the downsizes,
is I actually think that we're some sort of not equilibrium,
like a basically some sort of climax of the spread
between those two markets. If you look at long term
chargeable last twenty years, we're very historically chief treasuries, very
(08:38):
historically expensive stocks. Is it going to happen today or tomorrow,
I don't know, but within the next six months I
think there's gonna be some mean reversion trade there. I
think in this particular case, we're talking about the election effects.
Obviously that's the big story. The market wasn't expecting Trump
to win in twenty sixteen. This time around, I think
(08:58):
the market was that everyone was positioned accordingly. Not everybody,
but a lot of people were. If you look at
the COT report, which is what we follow, it tells
us on the future side of things, who's long, who's
short by how much? Virtually everybody and their dog were
long stocks going into the event, and they added to
that position. Obviously once the news was realized and everybody
(09:19):
was short bonds. And usually when we see everybody on
the same side of the boat, at some point we
see an unwinding of that trade. And I think that's
exactly what we're going to get. I can't rule out
seasonality pushing stocks a little higher in the short run,
but in the big picture, I think we're due for
a nice healthy correction before we finally get the you know,
the big growth that everyone's expecting as a Trump trade.
(09:41):
One other thing that I would point out is in
August or in September, it was the unwinding of the
yen carry trade that kind of set volatility into the
stock market. Well, today the yen is quietly up one
and a little over a percent. I know the en
is given back most of its rally, but I don't
think that story is over. So I'm watching the end
(10:02):
to see what happens here. If we start seeing that
trade come under pressure and we get another unwinding event,
that could add to the volatility.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
Yeah, thanks for Carly.
Speaker 3 (10:12):
I guess before I moved to Jason, I was just
going to ask, But no, that was what Michael guy
ed when I was talking to him recently. He kind
of highlighted that, as you know what happened with the
end back in August, and his opinion was sort of
an appetizer more like the main course. So are there
any particular levels or things you'd be keying off there
that you'd watch?
Speaker 5 (10:32):
So I tend to look at monthly and weekly charts
to kind of form my opinion and if if you
look at a monthly chart, it's almost identical to what
we saw right before the financial crisis and the end. Basically,
the end had a really big carry trade unwind. Right
before the financial crisis, we gave a lot of that
rally back. We actually gave about sixty percent of the
(10:52):
rally back in two thousand and seven. On this time around,
we've been given back a little more than that. But
if you draw a trend line, it's a very steep
trend line on a monthly chart from the twenty twenty
one highs through each of the failed rallies you know,
until earlier this year, the trend line comes in right
around where yesterday's low was. So even though we've given
(11:15):
back a big chunk of that rally, and I know
a lot of the you know, people kind of dropped
it off their quote board and stopped looking at it,
I still think that we're we're probably in store for
round two or maybe even you know, the next six
or seven innings of that story. If you're following futures,
I know it's inverse and for X, so this might
be a little confusing, but somewhere around sixty three fifty
(11:38):
to sixty four is where I see kind of the
make or break level. So right now we're trying to make.
We'll see how it looks next week.
Speaker 3 (11:46):
Great, thanks Carl. I know we do have Jason in here.
I'm not sure which account you're going to be speaking from,
but oh there we are. Okay, a great. Why don't
you just kind of summarize what you're looking at and
some of the things that stand out to you in
this market.
Speaker 6 (11:58):
Sure? Thanks, hopefully you can hear me quick test there.
Speaker 4 (12:03):
Yeah we got we got to okay.
Speaker 6 (12:05):
Excellent, excellent. I was having my troubles before, so thanks
for having me. I tend to well, not tend to.
I have a quantitative view of everything, very data driven,
and there are a couple of things at play. You
just mentioned seasonality. Now that the election uncertainty is out
(12:28):
of the way, we have entered seasonally the strongest month
of the year since nineteen ninety. November is up seventy
three percent of the time, with an average return across
all indices of two point eight one percent. So you
know the fact that we're having a little bit of
give back this week in terms of market volatilities expected,
(12:51):
especially after that major bump that everyone was just talking about.
But you know, there are pockets of value and opportunity,
so I'm rather bullish at least up until April. Seasonally speaking, again,
the fourth quarter of the year is the strongest time
of the year for stocks since nineteen ninety. January through
(13:15):
March is the second strongest, and you can sort of
tack on April there. So we have a really nice
stretch ahead of us seasonally speaking, with high reliability in
terms of those numbers. You know, the major headwinds in
the market were interest rates and election. We have clarity there.
I believe we're going to get at least another rate
(13:36):
cut this year. It's a little less certain obviously with
the bond market behaving the way it is, But there
are a lot of things to point to that are
very positive for stocks. Number One, typically when you get
a red wave, historically speaking, since the thirties, stocks are
up twelve point nine percent in one year after a
(13:57):
red wave. That's positive. We have the seasonality that we
just spoke of. Earnings are working. As of today, ninety
three percent of the SMP reported seventy five percent of
SMP five hundred companies are beating earnings estimates. Sixty one
percent are beating sales, and this is right on target
(14:18):
with the ten year average, which is seventy four percent
of companies beating earnings and sixty four percent of companies
beating sales. The SMP earnings growth is five point four percent,
so that's the fifth quarter in the row of earnings growth.
So we're still seeing strong under the hood metrics here.
And if you're looking to identify some value, you know
(14:41):
something we're excited about or we've been talking about it
for a while, or small in mid caps, they were
vastly underperforming for a long time, and when Trump looked
like he had the lead, a lot of money flows
were moving into small and midcaps, especially when he got
shot in the ear we saw a huge rally in
the Russell two thousand, which you know quickly gave it
(15:03):
back but then sneakily gained it all back and then
exploded after the election. What's interesting is small caps are
trading right now at around seventeen point four times earnings,
which is significantly cheaper than a MAG seven, which are
trading at around thirty times earnings. And then you have
(15:25):
the S and P five hundred is trading around I
can't read my writing. I think it's twenty two point
six times earnings. And then if you back out the
mag seven, you're looking at the SMP four ninety three
that's trading at twenty times earnings. So right now, small
and mid caps are still relatively cheap, earnings are working,
(15:46):
and we're heading into this seasonally strong period of time,
and we're going to get an administration that's pro small business,
anti tax, pressuring for faster rate cuts, whether or not
they'll be able to do that, and you know that
there are a lot of tailwinds for equities in my
opinion right now.
Speaker 3 (16:06):
Yeah, thanks for that, you know, anybody listening. I really
got to give Jason and his team a shout out
at map Signals. These guys had a lot to say
many many months ago about kind of how small caps
were a real powerful opportunity. They expected some rotation, and
their data was showing that that would probably be a
pretty major move, And obviously we started to see that
back in July and it's only grown more recently. I
(16:29):
guess this is this is for whoever wants to take it. Carly, Jason,
Jim even you know, when it comes to sectors moving forward.
You know, we've seen this big rotation in the short term.
Do you think it has legs for next year? Do
you think this is going to be a market that's
led by financials, that's led by industrials, that's led by
small caps in value, you know, versus the Max seven,
(16:50):
not just in recent history, but maybe throughout next year.
Speaker 4 (16:53):
And again, I was just kind of throw it out
there for whatever wants to jump on it.
Speaker 6 (17:00):
Sure I can leap in, and anybody wants to interject,
by all means, go ahead. You know, we're seeing The
way MAP signals works is we measure for unusual institutional
buying and selling with the mindset that you know, large
institutional money flows are what direct markets. You know, according
(17:24):
to JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, between seventy and ninety
percent of all daily volume on the aggregate stock exchange
our institutions. So that's where we want to be focusing
our attention. So we look for when things are unusual
and low and behold, there's been a tremendous amount of
unusual buying and financials, which I think everybody can see.
(17:47):
Financials are well poised for success, as you know, the
promise of lower regulation means potentially more mergers and acquisitions,
and you know, still higher than average rates even though
they're going to be falling more lending higher revenues. So
I think that trade still has legs. But what really
(18:08):
has me excited is, as Mike mentioned industrials, I also
see technology and discretionary seeing strong unusual buying. So institutions
are accumulating these stocks, and that's typically the sign of
a bull market, because tech and discretionary are the engines
(18:29):
of a bull market. As you know, technological advancement and
future growth is a great place for you know, a
great yardstick for where investors are putting their money, as
well as discretionary showing the sign of a strong consumer.
So I think those four sectors definitely have continued legs
(18:53):
if rates do continue to fall. I do like real
estate as reads. You know, historically legally have to pay
between seventy and ninety percent of their net revenues in
the form of a special dividends, so people are going
to be looking for yield. But you know, those four
primary sectors I just mentioned are ones that I like.
Speaker 1 (19:15):
Great.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
Thank you, Jason, just in case you joined the space
lay and I just want to make sure you guys
know where you can hear more from these speakers. Jason's
going to be at the Money show Master symposium Sarasota.
Speaker 4 (19:25):
Again.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
The dates are December fifth to seventh, and that link
that Wolf dropped in the top there has the full schedule.
Speaker 4 (19:32):
You can find out who's speaking, when they're speaking.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
What the schedule is going to be, like, what we're
going to do, you know, sort of the evenings when
the day's program's done. His presentation, Jason's is going to
be called the Massive Small Cap Opportunity and which five Stockstone.
Speaker 4 (19:45):
That's on Thursday, December fifth. When it comes to.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
Carly, she's going to be teaching some in depth and
in depth course called Trading in Today's Hot Commodities, which
I'm gonna ask her about in a minute, some trends
that she's seeing there. That's also Thursday, December fifth in
the afternoon. And again that's one of our money Master's courses.
So it's a paid add on event where you get
to really kind of take a deeper dive into the trends,
(20:08):
into trading opportunities and tactics and strategies.
Speaker 4 (20:11):
And then there's gonna be Jim Bianco.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
As I mentioned with Bianca Research, he's gonna have a
couple of different presentations, a keynote in a workshop. A
keynote is gonna be focused on the economy and the
bond market post election, and also how bonds fit into
your portfolio, some advice on what you can do, some
recommendations on what you can do in fixed income in
an environment where obviously interest rates are a big part
of the story for the markets, which Jim I did
(20:33):
want to pivot to you. I mean, we're up in
the ten years somewhere around seventy five eighty basis points
from the September lows to this week. You know, what
do you see kind of tapping going forward? I mean,
are we in a danger zone already? Is there certain
levels you're watching that you think is going to cause
real problems for the market.
Speaker 4 (20:49):
I just want to kind of curious about your take
on that.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
Actually, we're up about ninety because we were at three
sixty the day before, three point six percent the day
before or the FED cut rates, and today we're touched
four point five percent earlier today. This is, by the way,
the biggest rise of long term rates after the FED
started cutting rates in at least forty years. I say
(21:16):
at least forty years, because then the data starts getting
a little bit quant waki as far as what was
the actual start date, because they didn't move interest rates
these to target money supply. So you could argue that
what's happening here is we're seeing a rejection of what
the Fed is doing. We've got an election that's going
(21:39):
to bring about tax cuts, it's gonna be a bound deregulation.
We've got an economy it seems to be showing very
solid signs of strength, including today's retail sales number, which
again beat Wall Street's estimate. And I think what the
market is saying to the Fed is enough, we don't
need Fed stimulus by cutting rates, because if you're gonna
(21:59):
cut rates, we're going to start worrying about an uptic
of inflation and too much growth. So that's what I think.
It's been driving interest rates higher. And as long as
that potential stays there, that e commy's going to stay strong.
Everybody's going to be rich in the stock market. That's
going to push rates up. Now what level do rates
(22:20):
start to bother the stock market? I'll give you a
number four twenty five. Okay, wait, didn't we just rally
above four twenty five. Yeah, we rally because of the election.
We could have been at six twenty five after the
election in the stock market was still going to rally.
But once we got through the election of Fouria, I
think we're going back to realizing that we are now
(22:41):
at rates that are troublesome for the stock market from
here forward. Why is it troublesome for the stock market?
This is the hardest argument for me to make. What
should you expect the stock market to do moving forward
from here? Forget what it's done up to now, Now
what should you expect? Well, if you take the inverse
(23:04):
pe the earnings yield, add two or three percent to it.
Doctor Jeremy Siegel Orton University and Stocks the long run
likes to push this idea. You come up with that
the expected returns for the stock market from this moment
forward should be six to eight percent. Now that's over
long term. You know, it could have very good years.
It's had two twenty plus percent years already back to back,
(23:26):
could have a number couple of years below that, but
it should average something like that. The reason I say
it's The hardest argument to make is people go, wait, man,
you mean six to eight percent a month, And the
crypto guys go, you mean six to eight percent a week.
We're not supposed to make six or eight percent in
the stock market. That's a failure. We're supposed to be
making twenty to thirty percent in the stock market every
single year. No, that's really what you should expect is
(23:51):
going forward. You know, maybe next year is an above
average year, or maybe next year is in a below
average year. But given that expectation, now look at bond yields.
The Bloomberg gaggregate index is approaching five percent again, that
includes corporates, that includes mortgages, that includes treasuries, that includes
agency securities, all investment grade, and it is starting to
(24:14):
approach a five percent year. It's around four ninety or so.
In that range, the bond market is offering you the
vast majority of what you could get in the stock
market without with a lot less risk. The bond market
is having a bad year this year. It's up one
and a half percent. That's a bad year because we've
(24:35):
got a yield back in the bond market. Bad year
in the stock market. Remember twenty twenty two could be
down twenty percent. So a number of people will look
at the bond yields at four and a half percent
and the ten year approaching five and the Bloomberg gaggregate
index and go, thank you very much. I'll take the
majority of what the stock market should give me with
a lot less of its risk. That's why this level
(24:58):
of yield is there very problematic. And also you can
also see that in the flows in the ETF flows.
Fixed income ETF flows have already set a record inflow
year for twenty twenty four and we still got six
weeks left in the year to go. Why is it
for that exact reason, they're giving you the majority of
(25:19):
what people think they should get in the stock market
with a lot less risk. So sum it up. I
think we're at the levels right now that are bothersome
for the stock market, and I think we're going once
this election euphoria wears off. This is going to be
an issue if we stay at these levels or higher.
(25:41):
I understand that's a difficult argument because people now think
that normal is twenty percent a year, twenty percent a
month or a week if you're in crypto land, But
it isn't Those are unusually large returns right now, and
as we kind of ratchet back to what are the
rational expectations we should have, the bond market is in
(26:01):
a very different place than it was the last decade.
It actually is a competitive investment to the stock market
right now. Now, maybe you've got a different viewpoint. You
want to invest in higher growth, more speculative stocks with
larger expected returns. That might be. That might be the
case as well. You know that those those stocks might
(26:21):
do better than that six or eight percent number, and
again it might do better than that next year. But
at some point, the stock market at almost two hundred
percent of GDP cannot keep outrunning the size of the
economy to the degree it's going to have, because if
it does, we will then create a massive wealth effect.
(26:43):
We will stuff everybody so full of money they'll just
start bidding on everything from services to goods and creating
an inflationary problem as we move forward. So that's why
at some point the stock market has to return to
more of a six to eight percent type of return.
Nominal growth is probably very close to that. Nominal growth
(27:06):
would be real growth plus inflation. It's probably very close
to that number to kind of keep everything in line.
And given that in a stock bond market that's approaching
five percent yield, it all of a sudden is a
competitive investment, something we haven't seen since at least two
thousand and seven. This is kind of new for all
of us.
Speaker 4 (27:26):
Great really appreciate that. Jim a lot of great information there,
And you.
Speaker 3 (27:29):
Know, guys, I do want to point out if if
you were listening to Jim months ago, he really was
in really made a point of saying, this is the
no landing camp. The FED doesn't need to be as
aggressive as some people are talking about. So again, kudos
to some good calls that he's made that have certainly
panned out in the data. Carly, I did want to
pivot to you because obviously we've seen some pretty interesting moves.
Speaker 4 (27:48):
To say the least in parts of the commodities market.
Speaker 3 (27:50):
I mean, just to call one obvious example out, gold
had a phenomenal year.
Speaker 4 (27:54):
But post election it's basically fallen on its face.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
Any thoughts on you know, what's going to happen that
I mean, is this just people basically you know, seeing
the dollar surge and trying to get out of the way.
Is it people taking money from gold and putting it
into crypto and dickcoings that's going up. I'm just kind
of curious that you know drivers and also whether you
think that move has legs.
Speaker 5 (28:13):
Sure, So there's a lot of things going on in gold,
And I also I want to just compliment Jim. That
was very very articulate way to explain the bond what's
going on in the bomb market. And I'd like to
kind of add something to that when it comes to
treasury rates being a little bit beefier. I remember in
two thousand and seven when rates were five ish percent,
and I remember regretting not putting a whole lot more
(28:36):
money into the safety of those for a long long time,
you know. With that said, the treasury market is actually
most likely taking money out of gold. I know a
lot of it's probably going into bitcoin. But the reality is,
if you're holding gold, it doesn't pay dividends. If you're
holding treasuries, it does pay dividends. So there's a cash
flow issue that you you're giving up when you're buying gold.
(28:59):
But I think I think that's why gold sold off.
I think that just probably is part of the story.
With that said, the if you. I've posted a couple
of charts to social media over the last couple of months,
the gold market was way over its skis when it
got to like somewhere around twenty six fifty twenty seven hundred,
(29:20):
is where we started to get a little bit silly
and gold valuations in my opinion, and it just so
happens that as we were getting up to those levels,
we were running into some resistance and major trend lines,
but also the seasonality of gold. Most people don't realize,
but there's a very distinct seasonal pattern in gold usually
tops out in September October, and then it usually doesn't
(29:42):
bottom out until mid December, so seasonality is still weak
for another month. And I've been trading long enough to
know that gold is not the kind of market that
is comfortable to just buy and hold forever. I mean,
it can be. If you bought you know, the lows
in what was it, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, you probably
(30:04):
haven't felt much pain. But just imagine if you were
a buyer in twenty eleven, would have taken you a
decade to get your money back, and again you're not
getting dividends. So gold is a market that most people
don't realize, but it's probably one to be timed a
little more than some of the others. My personal opinion
is the only time to buy gold is when nobody
wants it. So I've been barish gold here for the last.
Speaker 6 (30:27):
Month or so.
Speaker 5 (30:27):
I was a little early, admittedly, but I don't think
we're done going down. I think, like I mentioned, seasonality
is still bearish. The US dollar is it has just
been on a tear since the election, and the gold market,
really I don't think has priced that in. I think
gold has the potential to retest much lower levels, probably
(30:47):
lower than most people even have on their radar. There's
going to be some support around twenty four hundred. That's
pretty easily doable. I wouldn't be shocked to see twenty
one fifty. So be careful in gold. It is by
the dip market and historically always has been, but the
dips can be very, very large, and you want to
respect those.
Speaker 3 (31:06):
Got twenty fifty's, that's a pretty far a number, even
from these already retraced levels or partially retraced levels, I guess,
I would say, but appreciate that. I have to ask, well,
while you've got the floor here. What your thoughts are
on oil? I mean, it's a market where we've seen
so many headlines, so many things, and it's always in
the news, and yet you know, it kind of reminds
me of the last year of that meme where you
(31:28):
have the guy who's poking the stick saying do something.
Speaker 4 (31:31):
I mean, we're right back here at levels.
Speaker 3 (31:33):
We've been kind of on either side by about five
bucks in oil all year.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
So what do you think is going on there? Any
opportunities training things that you're looking at in the energy patch.
Speaker 5 (31:48):
It's parish basically from through February, so we've got a
handful of months in which crude oil normally goes lower,
not higher. And it's really hard for me to put
together any type of bullish case here. I mean, the
only thing that I think can push prices higher is
some sort of Middle East turmoil, some sort of surprise
(32:09):
supply disruption, and that just doesn't seem to be in
the cards. I know, and people don't really talk about
oil when they talk about the Trump trade. But the
reality is the theory I'm not advocating one administration over
the other, but the theory is there may be less
tension less global wars with Trump and office, and if
that's the case, that's gonna basically be a magnet lower
(32:31):
for crude oil. In addition, we've all heard it, drill, baby, drill.
Probably some supply coming on around the corner. You can't
turn on oil supply with you know, immediately, It takes
some time, but it's probably in the cards. And finally,
China has stopped growing. China is throwing everything at the
wall trying to make it stick, but their GDP has
(32:55):
basically flatlined. And as long as that's the environment and
the US dollars heading higher, interest rates are as high
as they are, it's really difficult for me to see
crude ail going up rather than down over the next
three to four months. With that said, there is some
support in the low sixties. We've been holding that for
two years. I feel like it's probably time we melt down,
(33:16):
just simply because there's not really any good reason to
be aggressively bullish here. I think crud's probably headed for
fifty to fifty four dollars somewhere in the low fifties,
I think is probably what we see by early next year.
Speaker 4 (33:29):
Great, thanks Cary, you know I don't want to. It's
not Nancy's fault that she was having audio issues.
Speaker 3 (33:34):
I don't want to short change her here just because
you couldn't end up joining the space. But if you
do click in that link there you see the Sarasota schedule.
Nancy is CEO and CIO at Laffertangler and she's going
to be speaking on a couple of different things.
Speaker 4 (33:47):
One of her presentations is.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
Going to be All Weather Investing in a New World,
as the name suggests that that keynote is going to
have a lot to deal with. Okay, we've had these
big monumental political developments, geopolitical developments, interest rate developments, and
so on. Kind of this new region for twenty twenty five,
what do you do about it? So, you know, great,
great opportunity to get some you know, big picture.
Speaker 4 (34:05):
Perspective as well as actionable ideas.
Speaker 3 (34:07):
And her other presentation, again, the battle for the White
House is over, the battle fear of wealth has just begun.
As the name suggestion, you know, it's going to be
a different environment, different economic and political backdrop. So that's
really gonna you know, dictate a lot of different things
you're gonna want to consider in some portfolio moves you're
gonna want to make for the new year, so.
Speaker 4 (34:26):
Definitely check that out. In Sarasota the link that's up
top and in the chat.
Speaker 3 (34:30):
Just one last thing I'll mention here before pivoting to Jason,
I did drop the link for the Money Show Las
Vegas event as well. Again, that's the one after Sarasota.
The next in person one we have, and that's February
seventeenth to nineteenth and twenty five at the Paris Las Vegas.
Speaker 4 (34:45):
You can check that out.
Speaker 1 (34:46):
Jason.
Speaker 4 (34:47):
I know what we had you in Orlando.
Speaker 3 (34:48):
You talked about a couple of individual names that you liked.
I don't know if you came prepare for something like
that here, and if not, that's fine, But is there
anything that's kind of a standout? You know, we talk sectors,
We talked financials, industrials, and small cap, so I'm kind
of curious if there's anything that.
Speaker 4 (35:01):
Looks really promising in some of those groups you highlighted.
Speaker 6 (35:06):
Yeah. Great, I always have stocks on my sleeves, and
I think you know, I was reflecting as I was
hearing all these thoughts on golden bonds, and admittedly that's
it's not really my area of expertise, and the reason
being is I'm a stocks guy, but I'm not a
(35:28):
stock market guy, so I don't think I'm ever telling
people to run out and just buy all stocks. And
I think the important thing to keep in mind is
something that really validated my work. I read a paper
in twenty seventeen, and I've been doing these quantitative stock
picking models since, you know, the mid two thousands. But
(35:53):
there was a professor, Hendrik Bessenbinder. He's still live, so
he still is a professor. But he wrote a paper
titled simply do stocks outperform treasury bonds? And I think
most people over the course of one hundred years would
automatically agree, yes, stocks outperformed bonds, but there's always an asterisk.
(36:17):
And what he found was that only four percent of
all listed stocks since nineteen twenty six account for one
hundred percent of the net gains of stocks above bonds.
So inversely, that means ninety six percent of stocks can't
even meet or beat bonds over one hundred years. So
(36:39):
I think there's a very valid point to you know,
listen to being a bond investor or buying gold, et cetera.
But what I specialize in is try and identify those
four percent like you know, sitting on a five thousand
percent in Nvidia Gain. You get those by idea iifying
(37:00):
them early on, We follow unusual institutional money flows into
those stocks, and then we pick the highest ranked ones
according to our models in terms of fundamentals. So along
those lines, really, what's been rising to the top of
our models recently, as mentioned, have been a lot of
small and mid cap stocks. And that's not to pooh
(37:22):
pooh the mag seven or the large caps, because there
are great large caps out there, like Arista Networks. The
tickers ain't that. I urge you to research it yourself.
But I'm really right now focused on smaller and mid
cap stocks. So you know a couple of names that
I would suggest you guys and gals write down and
(37:43):
have on your radar. One of them is Texas Roadhouse,
you know, casual dining, ribs, barbecue, all sorts of you know,
casual food. The company's been growing leaps and bound. They
also owned Bubba's thirty three some restaurants, you know, popular
(38:04):
across America. This stock ranks very highly in my model.
It's boasting strong one year sales and earnings growth about
fifteen percent. For each three year sales growth at twenty
five percent, we're talking three year earnings growth of two
hundred and thirty six percent for a large chain restaurant,
(38:25):
making a profit margin of seven percent, and doing so
on a sixty eight percent debt to equity ratio. It's
pretty impressive. And with rates falling and smaller cap companies
typically borrowing a lot to fuel their growth, any cut
in financing costs sort of falls to their bottom line,
so that's a tailwind for them. They have plenty of
(38:46):
free cash flow, and they're forecasted to grow their sales
and earnings next year. So you know, this is a
smaller cap company at about thirteen billion, and they actually
do pay a forward dividend yield, So I'm liking Texas Roadhouse.
(39:09):
Another stock that's come on my radar in the past
few weeks is Fabrinet. This is a tech stock and
they basically provide optical, electro mechanical and electronic manufacturing services
or an electronics firm. It's headquartered in the Cayman Islands.
Again scoring very strongly on my models with strong one
(39:32):
year and three year sales and earnings growth, a very
nice ten percent profit margin. They have three hundred and
sixty four million of free cash flow less capital expenditures,
and they're doing so with zero percent debt to equity.
So this is a really strong growth play because they're
forecasted to grow sales and earnings next year by about
(39:55):
thirteen point seven percent each. This is a nine billion
dollar company with plenty of room to grow. It does
not pay a dividend. By the way, the pe of
Texas Roadhouse the forward is twenty eight point two and
the forward of Fabrinet is twenty three point seven, so
slightly bigger than the SMP, but there's a lot of
(40:16):
growth in there. And then the last one I really
like is Doximity. And by the way, this isn't the
last one that I like. This last one I'm bringing
up today. This is a healthcare company. They provide cloud
based software solutions for physicians, medical record keeping, things like that.
A very strong score in my system. Again, strong one
(40:38):
in three year sales and earnings growth, with three year
earnings growth nearly two hundred percent. The company has a sorry,
the company has a thirty one percent profit margin, about
one hundred and eighty million of free cash flow, hardly
any debt, and strong forecasted sales and earnings growth about
(41:00):
a six point seven billion dollar company. No forward dividend
yield here. So those are three small cap names I
like on my radar.
Speaker 1 (41:09):
Great.
Speaker 4 (41:09):
I appreciate the ideas.
Speaker 3 (41:10):
Unfortunately I don't appreciate the fact that it's making me
hungry hearing about Texas roadhouse and it's nowhere near dinner
time here in the East Coast.
Speaker 4 (41:16):
Thank you for that.
Speaker 3 (41:17):
Anyways, I'm going to go to gym in a minute
about some advice and what people can do with their
fixed income portfolios. But Carly, I wanted to go to
you first just say, I mean, things are going to
change between now and the event.
Speaker 4 (41:28):
I know that, especially in the markets that you trade
and the trends that you follow.
Speaker 3 (41:32):
Is anything that looks I guess, either really attractive or
you know, in the commodity space, or some conversy on
the other side, anything you really kn't want to stay
away from here as we head into year end.
Speaker 5 (41:44):
Sure, So thanks my time. Just because of the nature
of commodities and the way that they trade, we're tend
to be a little shorter term time frame than a
lot of the other guests on this event. What I
will say is I don't have the markets exactly picked
out that we're going to talk about, but we'll probably
talk about crude oil, natural guests. Those are very popular.
Everyone always wants to talk about gold, so we'll probably
(42:05):
put that in as well. I'm going to I'm most
likely because we're looking at doing a trade with our
clients here next week in cotton. That's probably not a
market that most people trade or speculated in, nor should they,
but there seems to be a pretty rare opportunity coming up.
Speaker 1 (42:22):
In cotton.
Speaker 5 (42:23):
We're at multi year lows. We're levels that really haven't traded.
We haven't really traded below them except for the financial
crisis and basically the while you know, bear market in
twenty sixteen. Beyond that, we've stayed above sixty five cents
in cotton. So I think we're getting to a place
where there's just really long term scale trade opportunities. So
we most likely will mention that, and unfortunately, I'll probably
(42:47):
talk about bonds as well. I tend to be a
very big bond bowl down here. I just anytime that
I see the COT report screaming, let me just put
it this way, not only are we sitting on the
largest net short position ever in the history of the
ten year note, it's bigger than the last time by
like twenty five percent, So it's massive, massive short position.
(43:09):
I don't think I've ever seen this extreme of a
position in any market other than crude oil in like
twenty twenty two, when we were at one hundred and
thirty and everything obviously melted down the other way. I
think we're going to get something similar in bonds, so
we probably will mention that.
Speaker 4 (43:24):
Hey, that's great, that's that's that's great insights.
Speaker 3 (43:27):
I mean, I personally didn't realize that the numbers were
that stretched, So glad you could share that.
Speaker 1 (43:33):
Jim.
Speaker 3 (43:33):
Let me pivot to you, and just given your worldview
where you see interest rates going kind of you know,
what you think is going on with the FED and
so on. I mean, what does somebody do in their
fixed income portfolio if your base case kind of plays
out here over the next year.
Speaker 1 (43:48):
You know, it's interesting I'll answer the question then this way.
Everybody invests in index funds because the perception is no
one can beat the index, or very few professional managers
can beat the index. So by the index by the
S and P five hundred. As a matter of fact,
(44:08):
I was looking at the ETF flows year to date.
The top ten ETFs ranked by inflow, six of them
are S and P five hundred ETFs, and leading the
list is the VANGUARDESS P five hundred VOO with ninety
two billion dollars that's come into it, just that one alone.
(44:30):
And then IVV which is I shares, has about another
seventy billion that's come into that one. So that's true
about index funds that you know, it's very hard in
the equity market to beat an index that fixed income
it's very different. About fifty percent of active managers can
(44:51):
beat a benchmark into index into fixed income, so that
the same doesn't apply there. You want to, you know,
look to towards an index in equities, and you want
to look towards actively managed in fixed income. That is
really the best way I would say that people need to,
(45:13):
you know, look at how they want to manage Fixingcome now,
full disclosure. I do manage an index that does have
an et after tracks that that is actively managed. So
I'm talking my book here. When it comes to talking
about actively managed fixed income, it is the Bianco Research
Try to Return index, and ETF is WTBN. It's a
wisdom tree et ETF. That's the WB Bianco Nancy would
(45:36):
be the rest of the tickers. Just want you to
know that I'm a little bit talking my book now
that I've said that in the fixed income market that
there's always changes and there always is ways that active managers,
even if it isn't our fund can take advantage of.
Where would I be right now? I am positioned a
little bit bearishly towards interest rates continuing to rise. I
(45:59):
think that they have been rising for most of the year.
We started the year at you know, three point eight
eight percent and the ten yure where we, like I said,
a couple hours ago, we hit four fifty on the
ten year note as well. I'll make a quick comment
about the commitment of traders report. You know, you're right
it is the biggest short ever. But if you dig
(46:21):
down into the report, and there's been some academic studies
done on this, the giant short is in the lever
trader community, and that is not a directional bet on
interest rates. That is what is known as the basis trade.
The basis trade is where you go long stocks, short futures,
or vice versa, long future short I'm sorry, long bonds,
(46:42):
cash bonds, short futures, or vice versa short cash bonds
long futures. And that trade is probably the largest that's
ever been and it's the dominant way that hedge funds
are playing in the fixed income space. So what we're
seeing in the commitment of traders report is half that trade.
(47:03):
We're seeing that they are massively, massively short the futures
market against a massive lung in the cash market, trying
to play the spread between you two, not necessarily making
a directional bet. If it was a directional bet, I'd
be completely with you on the idea that what we're
seeing here would have been a very better signal. And
(47:24):
if you actually look at it's been that way for
a good part of a year now and it hasn't
been working. The other things I would suggest in the
fixed and come market is we are underweight credit. Don't
like the credit markets. We think that they're overvalued, that
they don't have as much opportunity. But wait, is in
credit where you get your yield? Yes, where would I
(47:47):
then pick to get my yield if it's not credit?
Either being investment grate or high yield mortgages or structured product.
I think that that's a better place. I would rather
get a five and a half or six percent mortgage
and get an get the income off of that, and
a five and a half or six percent corporate bond
try to get the income off off of that. Away
(48:08):
from that, I would be long the dollar. We do
put the currencies into the fixed income bucket as well too,
And there are a big market in treasury inflation protected securities,
which is a bet on inflation. I think those are undervalued,
and those securities have been performing fairly well over the
last couple of weeks, and that they'll continue to move higher.
(48:30):
If all of this sounds like it's a bit much
for the average investor to do, because these are kind
of specific kind of markets that you need to have
some noahu, I'll default back to my original comment. Fifty
percent of active managers can beat an index like the
Bloomberg Aggregate Index. The two biggest ETFs in fixed income
(48:52):
land are BND and AGG BND being I Shares, Bloomberg
Aggregate Tracker AGG being Vanguard's Bloomberg Aggregate Tracker. Fifty percent
of active managers when you're talking about US, Vanguard, Blackrock, Pimco,
anybody else along the line. Even if Nancy has a
(49:13):
fixed income fund as well too, throwing a dart at them,
about fifty percent of them can beat it. Now, obviously
you don't want to do that. But it's a very
different world than the equity market, is what I'm trying
to say, where it is a tall order for a
manager to try and beat a you know, an index
in the equity land, not so much in the fixed
(49:34):
income space. Yea.
Speaker 3 (49:35):
I appreciate that, Jim, Yeah, and I appreciate you you
getting that information out there.
Speaker 4 (49:38):
Obviously fixed income isn't backt a different world.
Speaker 3 (49:41):
Before I kind of move around the table, guy, I
just want to ask you if there's anything I know
it wouldn't really pretend to your fund, but then anything
you want to say on crypto, on bitcoin, I mean,
I know you've spoken about bigcoin, big picture for the
last few years and following your work, so I'm just
kind of curious as to what you're seeing in that market,
if there's any thoughts.
Speaker 4 (49:59):
On not to the move we've seen in the price,
but just.
Speaker 3 (50:01):
Sort of what the changing regulatory environment and everything else
might mean and you know, going forward here.
Speaker 1 (50:08):
Yeah, so you're gonna get me in trouble with all
my crypto friends because they already want to rip my
heart out as it is, because they because they think
I'm bearished and they think I've been shitting on a
bitcoin for the last couple of months. I haven't been.
I have said that the whole idea behind crypto is
you're building an alternate financial system. And if you're building
(50:31):
an alternate financial system, I am fully on board, all in,
full stop, let's go, and it's gonna be a disruptive
force like we've seen in all of the other technology
disruptive forces. My complaint of my concern is you're getting
away from that and now you're just you've got a
trading sardine that all you guys are just basically entered
(50:51):
the Paris Casino in Las Vegas and you're just basically
betting on whether number go up or number go down.
That'll be fun for a while, but if there isn't
anything behind it, as in a real financial system being
attempted to be built, it's not going to last. And
that's that's been my argument for it. But I still
(51:13):
hold out hope that they are trying to create a
new financial system. I would argue, as many that are
in the space that in the crypto space trying to
build the financial system, the last place that financial system
is needed is the United States. It has the rule
of law, We have a developed financial system. There are
a billion plus people that live in Asia, Africa, the
(51:36):
Middle East that have shaky currencies, that have rickety financial systems,
that are very, very worried about what they're supposed to
do with their money, how they're supposed to you know,
that their bank doesn't just steal it from them, that
their government doesn't to collapse their currency. They're looking for alternatives.
Eighty five percent of everybody on the planet owns a
(51:57):
cell phone. They are capable of accessing an electronic wallet
that is a gigantic you know, total addressable market or
a TAM for an alternative financial system. US in Europe
has had one hundred and fifty years to bring their
financial system to Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, and
they have it and there never will. So if they
(52:18):
continue on that idea of trying to bring them decentralized finance,
a store of wealth, a medium of exchange, Uh, then
I'm all in. We're gonna go to great places with crypto.
If Crypto is screw all that, just wait for one
hundred thousand, because then everybody's gonna fomo in and we're
gonna go to one hundred and fifty, and then we're
(52:39):
gonna sell it. We're gonna buy lambos, which is literally
what they're telling me on social media, and have fun
staying poor. It ain't gonna last. So my only complain,
Like I said, I'm not bearish on it. It's just
I'm worried that we're losing focus on what we're trying
to do here. If we're trying to build that financial system,
I'm in. I still will default that that that's what
(53:00):
we're trying to do, But more and more I get
a little bit more queasy that we're kind of losing focus.
We did this in twenty one. We lost focus on this,
and we all said the reason we want to buy
crypto is Matt Damon just did a commercial on you
know that everybody's got by Crypto and NFL eighty percent.
We did this in twenty twenty when we all thought that,
(53:21):
you know that we were all in on the idea
of number go up in NFL ninety percent, So hopefully
we're not going to be losing that focus. Again, I'll
default to that we're not now, but I get worried.
But again, crypto is a religion. And if you're not
all in on the religion and sing from every chapter
in verse, and I'm not. I'm singing for most of them,
(53:42):
not all of them, So they'refore from a heretic and
that's why they hate me.
Speaker 4 (53:46):
Hey, you know, I get a fortune favors of the
ball I believe.
Speaker 3 (53:49):
Wasn't that the quote from the Matt Damon commercial and
any of that appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (53:54):
Yeah, that was it? And how did it work out
for you over the next six months?
Speaker 4 (53:57):
Yeah, I hear you. I hear you.
Speaker 3 (53:59):
Just before I get some clue the remarks about the
Money Show events, Carly, I just want to give you
and give you an oportunity in Jason, just if people
want to get more information about what it is you do,
Where can they sign up? What website can they go to?
Maybe if I know you have a newsletter and so on,
So I guess Carly.
Speaker 5 (54:13):
You first, Yeah, if you're if you want to just
going to learn more about us, visit to currently trading
dot com. It's d E c A R L e
Y Trading dot com and you can set up for
free trial our newsletters we'll give you depending on how busy,
it's usually about three months, or try to give roughly
three months, so you'll give an idea of some of
(54:35):
the strategies we do. We be honest moosed to the trading.
Speaker 1 (54:38):
Recommendations we put out or related.
Speaker 5 (54:40):
We try to use the market's money by selling freement
to pay for options we're buying. Which does you know
Inclu Margins on this, but we explain that newser it's
kind of a teachers a good kind of newsletters. So
hopefully I like it, but you can get it for
freecy you're interested in.
Speaker 4 (54:55):
Got it great?
Speaker 3 (54:56):
It was kind of a little bit there, but that's
to Carlytrading dot com, I believe, So make sure you
check that out, and of course if you're not already
following her on Twitter, please do so you're gonna get
some great information that way as well.
Speaker 4 (55:07):
Jason, again, is.
Speaker 3 (55:07):
It just map signals dot com or someone would go
to maybe sign up for some of the work.
Speaker 4 (55:11):
You guys do.
Speaker 6 (55:12):
Yeah, that's right. Map Signals dot com map like a
map of the markets M A P S I G
N A L S dot com. We two. We have
a free newsletter you can sign up. You get very
unique insights from the viewpoint of these algorithmic representations of
(55:33):
unusual money flows that only we have. So if you're
interested in that, definitely sign up for the free info
and and and get a taste of what we do.
Map signals dot com.
Speaker 3 (55:45):
Great, thanks for that, Jason, I know Jim, of course
I already talk about the A TF Definitely check that out.
See a little bit about how that works as well.
Just in the closing minutes. Again, if you join late.
The reason we're doing this. All the speakers that you've
heard from here, Jim, Carly, Jason, Nancy Tank had to
drop off. She wasn't able to stay on, but all
of them are going to be speaking at the Money
Show Master's Symposium. It runs December fifth to seventh at
(56:08):
the Highest Regency, Sarasota, beautiful property right on the waterfront
here this part of Florida. I'm actually at Florida Native.
There's not many of us born and raised in South Florida.
I happen to be one of them. I'll tell you
that the weather in December, if you haven't been down here,
it's beautiful. It's a great time a year to come down,
enjoy some some fun, and pick up a lot of
great investing and trading ideas as well. And one of
(56:28):
the things that we pride ourselves in at Money Show
is essentially giving you a little bit of everything. You know,
we're not a metals focused conference. We're not just a
stock or an options focused conference. At this event, you're
going to hear from people with expertise and pretty much
every asset class, including alternative investments that is at the
symposium events we have tends to be a focus some
of the private market opportunities that are available in things
(56:51):
like energy, real estate, and so on, serving to get
information about that. We do have a couple speakers that
are going to be talking about cryptocurrencies as well Orunity
is there, so we touched on it briefly here.
Speaker 4 (57:02):
Jim had some remarks on bitcoin.
Speaker 3 (57:04):
You're going to pick up some guidance, advice, details on
what's going on in that market and how you can capitalize.
Speaker 4 (57:10):
So that's all going to be there as well. You
can check the link out Gab's got it there at
the top.
Speaker 3 (57:15):
You can check out details again on the schedule on
who's going to be speaking, the hotel, what tickets cost,
the Money Masters courses, all of that, and just one
last thing before I hand it over again in the
conversation in the comments section, I did also put that
link for what we're doing as our first in person
event in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 4 (57:34):
That's the Money Show.
Speaker 3 (57:35):
Traders Expo Las Vegas, February seventeenth to nineteen.
Speaker 4 (57:39):
That's gonna be one of the big shows.
Speaker 3 (57:40):
We kind of have the smaller symposium events and then
we also have the full on Money Show Traders expos.
Speaker 4 (57:46):
That event's going to be big. It's going to be huge.
Speaker 3 (57:48):
It's going to have a full exhibit, hall, conference for podcasting,
going on, a little bit everything.
Speaker 4 (57:53):
So definitely check that out as well.
Speaker 3 (57:55):
And really do appreciate Carly, Jim and you know, Jason
winning us here.
Speaker 4 (58:00):
Thanks so much to the whole Financial team.
Speaker 3 (58:03):
You guys are great, appreciate, appreciate doing us.
Speaker 4 (58:09):
Thank you so much.
Speaker 2 (58:10):
Great hearing from everybody today, Awesome insights from Silver, Jim
and Carly, really really good staff.
Speaker 6 (58:17):
Jordan, Now I'll turn over to you here.
Speaker 7 (58:20):
Yeah, What a day, what a week. Appreciate the whole crew.
That was a great conversation. What I really took away
from it was, you know, I really noticed everybody's hammering
the bonds right keep the keep your eyes on those bonds.
So we're keeping eyes there. And I really liked I
forgot exactly who who was speaking right there, but whoe
was talking about bitcoin right there? Sorry, I was driving,
(58:40):
so I wasn't able to look at my screen. But
I love your thoughts on bitcoin there. You're not bearish,
but I love your thoughts. You know, you're cautious on
the future of it, on whether it's just people you know,
trying to get their lambeau and get out, or whether
it's actually a change in our financial system right there.
So I think that was great. It was a great convo.
It's been a it's been a crazy week. I know,
(59:01):
me and Wolf got a lot of spaces next week.
So if you like spaces, give myself, give Wolf a follow,
give everybody a follow on the panel, and have a
great weekend everybody. We're we're gonna take a break from
the charts and we'll be back bright and early Monday.
I will be live on my YouTube as well Sunday
night for some Sunday Night charting. If anybody's interested in that,
I will get the link posted over the weekend, but
(59:23):
if not, we'll see everybody bright and early on Monday morning.
So see you guys, then enjoy the weekend.
Speaker 3 (59:28):
We'll have more interviews for you every week, so I
encourage you to subscribe to the Money Masters podcast so
you can stay up to date with the insights from
top money experts. You can follow me on Twitter at
real Mike Larson and follow money Show for more investing
and trading content on Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube at money Show.
Speaker 4 (59:45):
Thanks for listening, See you next time.
Everybody.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
I'm actually gonna be at some of the upcoming Money
Show stuff, probably the one in Vegas in February, but
I know that there's some amazing ones that are coming
up a buch sooner. These guys are in top tier conferences, education,
everything around those areas.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
We've got some of the speakers.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
That are gonna be at the events coming up on
stage right now, so you're in for a treat for
the audience. Is gonna be the perfect way to wrap
up your week in the market.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Let's get right into things.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
I'll try the mic over to you.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
Mike can get us rolling Hi perfectly.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Just so you know, we've got a silver fox an
eer I think is Jason Bondner's other Twitter and he
just emailed.
Speaker 4 (00:33):
Me and said that's what he's on. So if you
see somebody request the scot him.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
Yeah, Hi, sweet, Yeah, great, Well, welcome everybody, Glad you
could join us.
Speaker 4 (00:41):
I'm Mike Larson, the editor in chief at Money Show.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
I also MC our live event, so I'll be hosting
the event we've been talking about here. It's gonna be
the Sarasota Money Show Master Symposium December fifth to seventh
at the Hight Regency, Sarasota.
Speaker 4 (00:55):
Great news.
Speaker 5 (00:56):
You know.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
A few weeks ago, obviously we had the hurricane and
we're kind of on pins and needles making sure every
thing would be all right.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
It is.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
The property is great, everything's all set down here. Can't
wait to welcome you guys to the event. The link
in there, I'll give you some details on who's going
to be speaking.
Speaker 4 (01:09):
It's a threefold day program.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
We've got a little bit of everything, some trading speakers,
some you know, general strategists, people speaking out stocks, alternative
investments again, a little bit of everything. And we're also
gonna be doing the Money Show University program, which is
kind of aimed at a younger trader investor audience. We're
starting to incorporate that. We did that in Orlando a
couple weeks back, we're doing it in Sarasota in December,
(01:33):
and as Gav mentioned, we're going to be having our event,
the bigger event, the Full Size Money Show Traders Expo
event We're doing at the Paris in February seventeenth, nineteenth.
That's coming up, and that's going to have a little
more of an element of that as well. So a
lot of exciting things coming up. We hope to see
as many of you as possible in person at these events.
Some of the virtual stuff we do in between shows
(01:54):
at moneyshow dot com.
Speaker 4 (01:55):
You know, if you're not able to travel, we get it.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
We also have a lot of virtual events where we'll
have some of our speakers join us and talk about
what they're seeing in the markets at those events online
as well, so.
Speaker 4 (02:05):
Kind of kick things off.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
I think I'm just gonna give a little bit overview
of what I'm seeing in the markets, and we're going
to go around the table. We're joined by four of
our speakers from the Sarasota event December. We've got Jim Bianco,
We've got Jason Bodner, We've got Carly Garner, We've got
Nancy Tendlers. You're gonna get some good perspectives from all
these speakers. I've been able to have the privilege to
see them at past events to talk to them for
(02:27):
our money Masters podcast we do, and really, you know,
these speakers are at the top of their game. They're
gonna be some great insights. I'm not going to just
give you the big picture view on what's going on
in the world in the markets, but they're.
Speaker 4 (02:37):
Also gonna give you actionable recommendations, you know, which is
what we all come to these things for.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
Right, The idea is to get an idea to three dozens,
however many you can come back and put them to
work in your own portfolio. And really that's what ultimately
pays off and makes it all worthwhile, so that, you know,
it's funny, I kind of look at the markets here
in my theme this week, we've been the own goal team.
Speaker 4 (02:59):
If you want soccer, you know what an own goal is.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
It's when you screw up and kick the ball on
your own net versus let the other team do it
for you. And you know, post election, we had a
big run in market, so we had a lot of
operations about growth, uh you know, the new administration, what
it's going to mean in terms of tax policy, regulatory
policy and so on, and sort of looser market hand
which has allowed stocks to run the prime is, especially
(03:21):
in the last few days a week or so, the
bond market's been pushing back. You know, the bond market
is saying, uh, we want to hear something. We want
to hear some fiscal discipline, at least pledges that you know,
sure we're gonna have a big deficit. Sure we're gonna
have a big debt, but we're going to try and
incorporate some fiscal discipline to that as well. It hasn't
seen it so uh, you know, yield to up far
(03:44):
enough and fast enough, and we're starting to see that impact, uh,
you know, impact the markets overall.
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Nanta, We've got your your mic not on.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
Mute if you knew nothing, any background noise, just why
But in any event, So, I think what we're seeing
now is some pushback from the bond market. We have
I've really seen sort of a bone thrown to the
bond market, a pledge of some level of discipline, and
so that's I think what's leading to some of this volatility.
Of course, we've also had the FED come out there,
We've had a couple of speakers, including J. Powell, come
(04:13):
out and kind of slow walk a little bit the
idea that we have to cut rates as much as
the markets were maybe expecting.
Speaker 4 (04:19):
So that's you know, that's also been a part of this.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
So a lot of the quote unquote Trump trades are
coming under a little bit of pressure.
Speaker 4 (04:25):
I mean, we're certainly holding gains and many different assets.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
From from the dollar to bitcoin and so on, and
the stock market overall, but definitely some some give back
there as I think we're seeing some of that some
of that element come in there.
Speaker 4 (04:39):
So that's kind of where I'm at with the markets.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
I you know, I've been on a lot of these
spaces over over the last year. I've really had a
privilege to talk to you guys and kind of share
my my thesis, which I've just shorthanded as be bold.
Speaker 5 (04:50):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
You know, there's times to be boring when it comes
to your investment approach. There's times you want to own
more defensive assets, more defensive sectors and so on.
Speaker 4 (04:58):
And there's times you want to go on the offense.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
You want to own the growthier stuff with the sectors
and names that do better in a growing economy with
a good economic.
Speaker 4 (05:06):
And interest rate backdrop.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
But I will say more, you know, in the shorter term,
I think if we don't get some of this own
goal problem fixed, I think we're gonna be in for
some volatility through the rest of the year and it
could be an issue, you know, again just maybe derailing
a little bit some of that Santa Claus rally.
Speaker 4 (05:22):
People typically expect. So that's what I've got.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
I think I'll probably start with Jim Bianco and hand
it over because I know when he and I spoke recently,
he was all over this interest rate story and has
talked about that being kind of the one flying the
ointment here in terms of a potential market threat. So Jim,
why don't you go ahead and take the floor and
talk a little bit about what you're seeing.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Yeah, thanks Mike, and thanks for inviting me on the call.
Looking forward to the discussion. But I like your own
goal metaphor, because I think that's what the bond market
is basically trying to say. Here, Look, Trump won, We're
going to get text cuts, we're going to get deregulation,
we get end the call right now, everybody just plow
into double levered s andps because it's going to go
(06:02):
up fifty percent every year from here on out. By bitcoin,
it's going to go up to you know, five hundred
thousand in the next couple of years. Thank you very much,
Drive home safely. What ends that? What is the thing
that stops that? The idea that if we start doing
that and people start feeling that way, we're a going
to run a huge deficit. B We're probably going to
have a gigantic wealth effect, and we're going to have
(06:24):
inflation or the fear of inflation. So as people think
that that we're just going to go to the moon,
so will interest rates, and interest rates will be the
break or the counterbalance to letting markets just go and
go and go from here. And that's where I think
(06:45):
that the push pull in the market, because for every action,
there's a reaction. The action of Trump winning and deregulation
and tax cuts and massive stimulus and throw in the
FED cutting rates as well too, the reaction is going
to be in the bond market, saying you're going to
create inflation, or at least the potential for inflation. You're
going to create a big wealth effect, You're going to
(07:06):
create strong growth. No one wants to own bonds at
four and a half percent. The ten year hit four
and a half percent today. They're going to only be
interested in at much much higher interest rates, and that
will be a drag on the real economy. So they
are the counterbalance to this whole move. Otherwise, without them,
if you want to say no yields of peak yields
(07:30):
are going to go down inflation's not a problem, then
we're back to my original statement. Let's just all go
into double levered smps and let's just all buy bitcoin
because they're all going to go up huge in the
next couple of years and we don't need to overthink it.
It's going to be the bond market that's going to
be the counterbalance to this whole thing.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Great, thanks for the opening statement there, Jim, Nancy was
having some audio problems.
Speaker 4 (07:53):
You might be able to join us again, but in
the meantime, I'm going to move over to Carly Garner.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Let her jump in here and kind of give her big,
big picture overview of what you're seeing.
Speaker 5 (08:01):
Carl, how are you may, I'm good, good, Thank you. Obviously,
Jim is a much smarter person than I am, so
I'm not gonna I'm not gonna necessarily go against that idea,
but I think I look at things in a little
bit different timeframe.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
For me.
Speaker 5 (08:16):
When I see the stock market is overvalued as it
is and the bond market is stretched on the downsizes,
is I actually think that we're some sort of not equilibrium,
like a basically some sort of climax of the spread
between those two markets. If you look at long term
chargeable last twenty years, we're very historically chief treasuries, very
(08:38):
historically expensive stocks. Is it going to happen today or tomorrow,
I don't know, but within the next six months I
think there's gonna be some mean reversion trade there. I
think in this particular case, we're talking about the election effects.
Obviously that's the big story. The market wasn't expecting Trump
to win in twenty sixteen. This time around, I think
(08:58):
the market was that everyone was positioned accordingly. Not everybody,
but a lot of people were. If you look at
the COT report, which is what we follow, it tells
us on the future side of things, who's long, who's
short by how much? Virtually everybody and their dog were
long stocks going into the event, and they added to
that position. Obviously once the news was realized and everybody
(09:19):
was short bonds. And usually when we see everybody on
the same side of the boat, at some point we
see an unwinding of that trade. And I think that's
exactly what we're going to get. I can't rule out
seasonality pushing stocks a little higher in the short run,
but in the big picture, I think we're due for
a nice healthy correction before we finally get the you know,
the big growth that everyone's expecting as a Trump trade.
(09:41):
One other thing that I would point out is in
August or in September, it was the unwinding of the
yen carry trade that kind of set volatility into the
stock market. Well, today the yen is quietly up one
and a little over a percent. I know the en
is given back most of its rally, but I don't
think that story is over. So I'm watching the end
(10:02):
to see what happens here. If we start seeing that
trade come under pressure and we get another unwinding event,
that could add to the volatility.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
Yeah, thanks for Carly.
Speaker 3 (10:12):
I guess before I moved to Jason, I was just
going to ask, But no, that was what Michael guy
ed when I was talking to him recently. He kind
of highlighted that, as you know what happened with the
end back in August, and his opinion was sort of
an appetizer more like the main course. So are there
any particular levels or things you'd be keying off there
that you'd watch?
Speaker 5 (10:32):
So I tend to look at monthly and weekly charts
to kind of form my opinion and if if you
look at a monthly chart, it's almost identical to what
we saw right before the financial crisis and the end. Basically,
the end had a really big carry trade unwind. Right
before the financial crisis, we gave a lot of that
rally back. We actually gave about sixty percent of the
(10:52):
rally back in two thousand and seven. On this time around,
we've been given back a little more than that. But
if you draw a trend line, it's a very steep
trend line on a monthly chart from the twenty twenty
one highs through each of the failed rallies you know,
until earlier this year, the trend line comes in right
around where yesterday's low was. So even though we've given
(11:15):
back a big chunk of that rally, and I know
a lot of the you know, people kind of dropped
it off their quote board and stopped looking at it,
I still think that we're we're probably in store for
round two or maybe even you know, the next six
or seven innings of that story. If you're following futures,
I know it's inverse and for X, so this might
be a little confusing, but somewhere around sixty three fifty
(11:38):
to sixty four is where I see kind of the
make or break level. So right now we're trying to make.
We'll see how it looks next week.
Speaker 3 (11:46):
Great, thanks Carl. I know we do have Jason in here.
I'm not sure which account you're going to be speaking from,
but oh there we are. Okay, a great. Why don't
you just kind of summarize what you're looking at and
some of the things that stand out to you in
this market.
Speaker 6 (11:58):
Sure? Thanks, hopefully you can hear me quick test there.
Speaker 4 (12:03):
Yeah we got we got to okay.
Speaker 6 (12:05):
Excellent, excellent. I was having my troubles before, so thanks
for having me. I tend to well, not tend to.
I have a quantitative view of everything, very data driven,
and there are a couple of things at play. You
just mentioned seasonality. Now that the election uncertainty is out
(12:28):
of the way, we have entered seasonally the strongest month
of the year since nineteen ninety. November is up seventy
three percent of the time, with an average return across
all indices of two point eight one percent. So you
know the fact that we're having a little bit of
give back this week in terms of market volatilities expected,
(12:51):
especially after that major bump that everyone was just talking about.
But you know, there are pockets of value and opportunity,
so I'm rather bullish at least up until April. Seasonally speaking, again,
the fourth quarter of the year is the strongest time
of the year for stocks since nineteen ninety. January through
(13:15):
March is the second strongest, and you can sort of
tack on April there. So we have a really nice
stretch ahead of us seasonally speaking, with high reliability in
terms of those numbers. You know, the major headwinds in
the market were interest rates and election. We have clarity there.
I believe we're going to get at least another rate
(13:36):
cut this year. It's a little less certain obviously with
the bond market behaving the way it is, But there
are a lot of things to point to that are
very positive for stocks. Number One, typically when you get
a red wave, historically speaking, since the thirties, stocks are
up twelve point nine percent in one year after a
(13:57):
red wave. That's positive. We have the seasonality that we
just spoke of. Earnings are working. As of today, ninety
three percent of the SMP reported seventy five percent of
SMP five hundred companies are beating earnings estimates. Sixty one
percent are beating sales, and this is right on target
(14:18):
with the ten year average, which is seventy four percent
of companies beating earnings and sixty four percent of companies
beating sales. The SMP earnings growth is five point four percent,
so that's the fifth quarter in the row of earnings growth.
So we're still seeing strong under the hood metrics here.
And if you're looking to identify some value, you know
(14:41):
something we're excited about or we've been talking about it
for a while, or small in mid caps, they were
vastly underperforming for a long time, and when Trump looked
like he had the lead, a lot of money flows
were moving into small and midcaps, especially when he got
shot in the ear we saw a huge rally in
the Russell two thousand, which you know quickly gave it
(15:03):
back but then sneakily gained it all back and then
exploded after the election. What's interesting is small caps are
trading right now at around seventeen point four times earnings,
which is significantly cheaper than a MAG seven, which are
trading at around thirty times earnings. And then you have
(15:25):
the S and P five hundred is trading around I
can't read my writing. I think it's twenty two point
six times earnings. And then if you back out the
mag seven, you're looking at the SMP four ninety three
that's trading at twenty times earnings. So right now, small
and mid caps are still relatively cheap, earnings are working,
(15:46):
and we're heading into this seasonally strong period of time,
and we're going to get an administration that's pro small business,
anti tax, pressuring for faster rate cuts, whether or not
they'll be able to do that, and you know that
there are a lot of tailwinds for equities in my
opinion right now.
Speaker 3 (16:06):
Yeah, thanks for that, you know, anybody listening. I really
got to give Jason and his team a shout out
at map Signals. These guys had a lot to say
many many months ago about kind of how small caps
were a real powerful opportunity. They expected some rotation, and
their data was showing that that would probably be a
pretty major move, And obviously we started to see that
back in July and it's only grown more recently. I
(16:29):
guess this is this is for whoever wants to take it. Carly, Jason,
Jim even you know, when it comes to sectors moving forward.
You know, we've seen this big rotation in the short term.
Do you think it has legs for next year? Do
you think this is going to be a market that's
led by financials, that's led by industrials, that's led by
small caps in value, you know, versus the Max seven,
(16:50):
not just in recent history, but maybe throughout next year.
Speaker 4 (16:53):
And again, I was just kind of throw it out
there for whatever wants to jump on it.
Speaker 6 (17:00):
Sure I can leap in, and anybody wants to interject,
by all means, go ahead. You know, we're seeing The
way MAP signals works is we measure for unusual institutional
buying and selling with the mindset that you know, large
institutional money flows are what direct markets. You know, according
(17:24):
to JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, between seventy and ninety
percent of all daily volume on the aggregate stock exchange
our institutions. So that's where we want to be focusing
our attention. So we look for when things are unusual
and low and behold, there's been a tremendous amount of
unusual buying and financials, which I think everybody can see.
(17:47):
Financials are well poised for success, as you know, the
promise of lower regulation means potentially more mergers and acquisitions,
and you know, still higher than average rates even though
they're going to be falling more lending higher revenues. So
I think that trade still has legs. But what really
(18:08):
has me excited is, as Mike mentioned industrials, I also
see technology and discretionary seeing strong unusual buying. So institutions
are accumulating these stocks, and that's typically the sign of
a bull market, because tech and discretionary are the engines
(18:29):
of a bull market. As you know, technological advancement and
future growth is a great place for you know, a
great yardstick for where investors are putting their money, as
well as discretionary showing the sign of a strong consumer.
So I think those four sectors definitely have continued legs
(18:53):
if rates do continue to fall. I do like real
estate as reads. You know, historically legally have to pay
between seventy and ninety percent of their net revenues in
the form of a special dividends, so people are going
to be looking for yield. But you know, those four
primary sectors I just mentioned are ones that I like.
Speaker 1 (19:15):
Great.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
Thank you, Jason, just in case you joined the space
lay and I just want to make sure you guys
know where you can hear more from these speakers. Jason's
going to be at the Money show Master symposium Sarasota.
Speaker 4 (19:25):
Again.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
The dates are December fifth to seventh, and that link
that Wolf dropped in the top there has the full schedule.
Speaker 4 (19:32):
You can find out who's speaking, when they're speaking.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
What the schedule is going to be, like, what we're
going to do, you know, sort of the evenings when
the day's program's done. His presentation, Jason's is going to
be called the Massive Small Cap Opportunity and which five Stockstone.
Speaker 4 (19:45):
That's on Thursday, December fifth. When it comes to.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
Carly, she's going to be teaching some in depth and
in depth course called Trading in Today's Hot Commodities, which
I'm gonna ask her about in a minute, some trends
that she's seeing there. That's also Thursday, December fifth in
the afternoon. And again that's one of our money Master's courses.
So it's a paid add on event where you get
to really kind of take a deeper dive into the trends,
(20:08):
into trading opportunities and tactics and strategies.
Speaker 4 (20:11):
And then there's gonna be Jim Bianco.
Speaker 3 (20:12):
As I mentioned with Bianca Research, he's gonna have a
couple of different presentations, a keynote in a workshop. A
keynote is gonna be focused on the economy and the
bond market post election, and also how bonds fit into
your portfolio, some advice on what you can do, some
recommendations on what you can do in fixed income in
an environment where obviously interest rates are a big part
of the story for the markets, which Jim I did
(20:33):
want to pivot to you. I mean, we're up in
the ten years somewhere around seventy five eighty basis points
from the September lows to this week. You know, what
do you see kind of tapping going forward? I mean,
are we in a danger zone already? Is there certain
levels you're watching that you think is going to cause
real problems for the market.
Speaker 4 (20:49):
I just want to kind of curious about your take
on that.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
Actually, we're up about ninety because we were at three
sixty the day before, three point six percent the day
before or the FED cut rates, and today we're touched
four point five percent earlier today. This is, by the way,
the biggest rise of long term rates after the FED
started cutting rates in at least forty years. I say
(21:16):
at least forty years, because then the data starts getting
a little bit quant waki as far as what was
the actual start date, because they didn't move interest rates
these to target money supply. So you could argue that
what's happening here is we're seeing a rejection of what
the Fed is doing. We've got an election that's going
(21:39):
to bring about tax cuts, it's gonna be a bound deregulation.
We've got an economy it seems to be showing very
solid signs of strength, including today's retail sales number, which
again beat Wall Street's estimate. And I think what the
market is saying to the Fed is enough, we don't
need Fed stimulus by cutting rates, because if you're gonna
(21:59):
cut rates, we're going to start worrying about an uptic
of inflation and too much growth. So that's what I think.
It's been driving interest rates higher. And as long as
that potential stays there, that e commy's going to stay strong.
Everybody's going to be rich in the stock market. That's
going to push rates up. Now what level do rates
(22:20):
start to bother the stock market? I'll give you a
number four twenty five. Okay, wait, didn't we just rally
above four twenty five. Yeah, we rally because of the election.
We could have been at six twenty five after the
election in the stock market was still going to rally.
But once we got through the election of Fouria, I
think we're going back to realizing that we are now
(22:41):
at rates that are troublesome for the stock market from
here forward. Why is it troublesome for the stock market?
This is the hardest argument for me to make. What
should you expect the stock market to do moving forward
from here? Forget what it's done up to now, Now
what should you expect? Well, if you take the inverse
(23:04):
pe the earnings yield, add two or three percent to it.
Doctor Jeremy Siegel Orton University and Stocks the long run
likes to push this idea. You come up with that
the expected returns for the stock market from this moment
forward should be six to eight percent. Now that's over
long term. You know, it could have very good years.
It's had two twenty plus percent years already back to back,
(23:26):
could have a number couple of years below that, but
it should average something like that. The reason I say
it's The hardest argument to make is people go, wait, man,
you mean six to eight percent a month, And the
crypto guys go, you mean six to eight percent a week.
We're not supposed to make six or eight percent in
the stock market. That's a failure. We're supposed to be
making twenty to thirty percent in the stock market every
single year. No, that's really what you should expect is
(23:51):
going forward. You know, maybe next year is an above
average year, or maybe next year is in a below
average year. But given that expectation, now look at bond yields.
The Bloomberg gaggregate index is approaching five percent again, that
includes corporates, that includes mortgages, that includes treasuries, that includes
agency securities, all investment grade, and it is starting to
(24:14):
approach a five percent year. It's around four ninety or so.
In that range, the bond market is offering you the
vast majority of what you could get in the stock
market without with a lot less risk. The bond market
is having a bad year this year. It's up one
and a half percent. That's a bad year because we've
(24:35):
got a yield back in the bond market. Bad year
in the stock market. Remember twenty twenty two could be
down twenty percent. So a number of people will look
at the bond yields at four and a half percent
and the ten year approaching five and the Bloomberg gaggregate
index and go, thank you very much. I'll take the
majority of what the stock market should give me with
a lot less of its risk. That's why this level
(24:58):
of yield is there very problematic. And also you can
also see that in the flows in the ETF flows.
Fixed income ETF flows have already set a record inflow
year for twenty twenty four and we still got six
weeks left in the year to go. Why is it
for that exact reason, they're giving you the majority of
(25:19):
what people think they should get in the stock market
with a lot less risk. So sum it up. I
think we're at the levels right now that are bothersome
for the stock market, and I think we're going once
this election euphoria wears off. This is going to be
an issue if we stay at these levels or higher.
(25:41):
I understand that's a difficult argument because people now think
that normal is twenty percent a year, twenty percent a
month or a week if you're in crypto land, But
it isn't Those are unusually large returns right now, and
as we kind of ratchet back to what are the
rational expectations we should have, the bond market is in
(26:01):
a very different place than it was the last decade.
It actually is a competitive investment to the stock market
right now. Now, maybe you've got a different viewpoint. You
want to invest in higher growth, more speculative stocks with
larger expected returns. That might be. That might be the
case as well. You know that those those stocks might
(26:21):
do better than that six or eight percent number, and
again it might do better than that next year. But
at some point, the stock market at almost two hundred
percent of GDP cannot keep outrunning the size of the
economy to the degree it's going to have, because if
it does, we will then create a massive wealth effect.
(26:43):
We will stuff everybody so full of money they'll just
start bidding on everything from services to goods and creating
an inflationary problem as we move forward. So that's why
at some point the stock market has to return to
more of a six to eight percent type of return.
Nominal growth is probably very close to that. Nominal growth
(27:06):
would be real growth plus inflation. It's probably very close
to that number to kind of keep everything in line.
And given that in a stock bond market that's approaching
five percent yield, it all of a sudden is a
competitive investment, something we haven't seen since at least two
thousand and seven. This is kind of new for all
of us.
Speaker 4 (27:26):
Great really appreciate that. Jim a lot of great information there,
And you.
Speaker 3 (27:29):
Know, guys, I do want to point out if if
you were listening to Jim months ago, he really was
in really made a point of saying, this is the
no landing camp. The FED doesn't need to be as
aggressive as some people are talking about. So again, kudos
to some good calls that he's made that have certainly
panned out in the data. Carly, I did want to
pivot to you because obviously we've seen some pretty interesting moves.
Speaker 4 (27:48):
To say the least in parts of the commodities market.
Speaker 3 (27:50):
I mean, just to call one obvious example out, gold
had a phenomenal year.
Speaker 4 (27:54):
But post election it's basically fallen on its face.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
Any thoughts on you know, what's going to happen that
I mean, is this just people basically you know, seeing
the dollar surge and trying to get out of the way.
Is it people taking money from gold and putting it
into crypto and dickcoings that's going up. I'm just kind
of curious that you know drivers and also whether you
think that move has legs.
Speaker 5 (28:13):
Sure, So there's a lot of things going on in gold,
And I also I want to just compliment Jim. That
was very very articulate way to explain the bond what's
going on in the bomb market. And I'd like to
kind of add something to that when it comes to
treasury rates being a little bit beefier. I remember in
two thousand and seven when rates were five ish percent,
and I remember regretting not putting a whole lot more
(28:36):
money into the safety of those for a long long time,
you know. With that said, the treasury market is actually
most likely taking money out of gold. I know a
lot of it's probably going into bitcoin. But the reality is,
if you're holding gold, it doesn't pay dividends. If you're
holding treasuries, it does pay dividends. So there's a cash
flow issue that you you're giving up when you're buying gold.
(28:59):
But I think I think that's why gold sold off.
I think that just probably is part of the story.
With that said, the if you. I've posted a couple
of charts to social media over the last couple of months,
the gold market was way over its skis when it
got to like somewhere around twenty six fifty twenty seven hundred,
(29:20):
is where we started to get a little bit silly
and gold valuations in my opinion, and it just so
happens that as we were getting up to those levels,
we were running into some resistance and major trend lines,
but also the seasonality of gold. Most people don't realize,
but there's a very distinct seasonal pattern in gold usually
tops out in September October, and then it usually doesn't
(29:42):
bottom out until mid December, so seasonality is still weak
for another month. And I've been trading long enough to
know that gold is not the kind of market that
is comfortable to just buy and hold forever. I mean,
it can be. If you bought you know, the lows
in what was it, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, you probably
(30:04):
haven't felt much pain. But just imagine if you were
a buyer in twenty eleven, would have taken you a
decade to get your money back, and again you're not
getting dividends. So gold is a market that most people
don't realize, but it's probably one to be timed a
little more than some of the others. My personal opinion
is the only time to buy gold is when nobody
wants it. So I've been barish gold here for the last.
Speaker 6 (30:27):
Month or so.
Speaker 5 (30:27):
I was a little early, admittedly, but I don't think
we're done going down. I think, like I mentioned, seasonality
is still bearish. The US dollar is it has just
been on a tear since the election, and the gold market,
really I don't think has priced that in. I think
gold has the potential to retest much lower levels, probably
(30:47):
lower than most people even have on their radar. There's
going to be some support around twenty four hundred. That's
pretty easily doable. I wouldn't be shocked to see twenty
one fifty. So be careful in gold. It is by
the dip market and historically always has been, but the
dips can be very, very large, and you want to
respect those.
Speaker 3 (31:06):
Got twenty fifty's, that's a pretty far a number, even
from these already retraced levels or partially retraced levels, I guess,
I would say, but appreciate that. I have to ask, well,
while you've got the floor here. What your thoughts are
on oil? I mean, it's a market where we've seen
so many headlines, so many things, and it's always in
the news, and yet you know, it kind of reminds
me of the last year of that meme where you
(31:28):
have the guy who's poking the stick saying do something.
Speaker 4 (31:31):
I mean, we're right back here at levels.
Speaker 3 (31:33):
We've been kind of on either side by about five
bucks in oil all year.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
So what do you think is going on there? Any
opportunities training things that you're looking at in the energy patch.
Speaker 5 (31:48):
It's parish basically from through February, so we've got a
handful of months in which crude oil normally goes lower,
not higher. And it's really hard for me to put
together any type of bullish case here. I mean, the
only thing that I think can push prices higher is
some sort of Middle East turmoil, some sort of surprise
(32:09):
supply disruption, and that just doesn't seem to be in
the cards. I know, and people don't really talk about
oil when they talk about the Trump trade. But the
reality is the theory I'm not advocating one administration over
the other, but the theory is there may be less
tension less global wars with Trump and office, and if
that's the case, that's gonna basically be a magnet lower
(32:31):
for crude oil. In addition, we've all heard it, drill, baby, drill.
Probably some supply coming on around the corner. You can't
turn on oil supply with you know, immediately, It takes
some time, but it's probably in the cards. And finally,
China has stopped growing. China is throwing everything at the
wall trying to make it stick, but their GDP has
(32:55):
basically flatlined. And as long as that's the environment and
the US dollars heading higher, interest rates are as high
as they are, it's really difficult for me to see
crude ail going up rather than down over the next
three to four months. With that said, there is some
support in the low sixties. We've been holding that for
two years. I feel like it's probably time we melt down,
(33:16):
just simply because there's not really any good reason to
be aggressively bullish here. I think crud's probably headed for
fifty to fifty four dollars somewhere in the low fifties,
I think is probably what we see by early next year.
Speaker 4 (33:29):
Great, thanks Cary, you know I don't want to. It's
not Nancy's fault that she was having audio issues.
Speaker 3 (33:34):
I don't want to short change her here just because
you couldn't end up joining the space. But if you
do click in that link there you see the Sarasota schedule.
Nancy is CEO and CIO at Laffertangler and she's going
to be speaking on a couple of different things.
Speaker 4 (33:47):
One of her presentations is.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
Going to be All Weather Investing in a New World,
as the name suggests that that keynote is going to
have a lot to deal with. Okay, we've had these
big monumental political developments, geopolitical developments, interest rate developments, and
so on. Kind of this new region for twenty twenty five,
what do you do about it? So, you know, great,
great opportunity to get some you know, big picture.
Speaker 4 (34:05):
Perspective as well as actionable ideas.
Speaker 3 (34:07):
And her other presentation, again, the battle for the White
House is over, the battle fear of wealth has just begun.
As the name suggestion, you know, it's going to be
a different environment, different economic and political backdrop. So that's
really gonna you know, dictate a lot of different things
you're gonna want to consider in some portfolio moves you're
gonna want to make for the new year, so.
Speaker 4 (34:26):
Definitely check that out. In Sarasota the link that's up
top and in the chat.
Speaker 3 (34:30):
Just one last thing I'll mention here before pivoting to Jason,
I did drop the link for the Money Show Las
Vegas event as well. Again, that's the one after Sarasota.
The next in person one we have, and that's February
seventeenth to nineteenth and twenty five at the Paris Las Vegas.
Speaker 4 (34:45):
You can check that out.
Speaker 1 (34:46):
Jason.
Speaker 4 (34:47):
I know what we had you in Orlando.
Speaker 3 (34:48):
You talked about a couple of individual names that you liked.
I don't know if you came prepare for something like
that here, and if not, that's fine, But is there
anything that's kind of a standout? You know, we talk sectors,
We talked financials, industrials, and small cap, so I'm kind
of curious if there's anything that.
Speaker 4 (35:01):
Looks really promising in some of those groups you highlighted.
Speaker 6 (35:06):
Yeah. Great, I always have stocks on my sleeves, and
I think you know, I was reflecting as I was
hearing all these thoughts on golden bonds, and admittedly that's
it's not really my area of expertise, and the reason
being is I'm a stocks guy, but I'm not a
(35:28):
stock market guy, so I don't think I'm ever telling
people to run out and just buy all stocks. And
I think the important thing to keep in mind is
something that really validated my work. I read a paper
in twenty seventeen, and I've been doing these quantitative stock
picking models since, you know, the mid two thousands. But
(35:53):
there was a professor, Hendrik Bessenbinder. He's still live, so
he still is a professor. But he wrote a paper
titled simply do stocks outperform treasury bonds? And I think
most people over the course of one hundred years would
automatically agree, yes, stocks outperformed bonds, but there's always an asterisk.
(36:17):
And what he found was that only four percent of
all listed stocks since nineteen twenty six account for one
hundred percent of the net gains of stocks above bonds.
So inversely, that means ninety six percent of stocks can't
even meet or beat bonds over one hundred years. So
(36:39):
I think there's a very valid point to you know,
listen to being a bond investor or buying gold, et cetera.
But what I specialize in is try and identify those
four percent like you know, sitting on a five thousand
percent in Nvidia Gain. You get those by idea iifying
(37:00):
them early on, We follow unusual institutional money flows into
those stocks, and then we pick the highest ranked ones
according to our models in terms of fundamentals. So along
those lines, really, what's been rising to the top of
our models recently, as mentioned, have been a lot of
small and mid cap stocks. And that's not to pooh
(37:22):
pooh the mag seven or the large caps, because there
are great large caps out there, like Arista Networks. The
tickers ain't that. I urge you to research it yourself.
But I'm really right now focused on smaller and mid
cap stocks. So you know a couple of names that
I would suggest you guys and gals write down and
(37:43):
have on your radar. One of them is Texas Roadhouse,
you know, casual dining, ribs, barbecue, all sorts of you know,
casual food. The company's been growing leaps and bound. They
also owned Bubba's thirty three some restaurants, you know, popular
(38:04):
across America. This stock ranks very highly in my model.
It's boasting strong one year sales and earnings growth about
fifteen percent. For each three year sales growth at twenty
five percent, we're talking three year earnings growth of two
hundred and thirty six percent for a large chain restaurant,
(38:25):
making a profit margin of seven percent, and doing so
on a sixty eight percent debt to equity ratio. It's
pretty impressive. And with rates falling and smaller cap companies
typically borrowing a lot to fuel their growth, any cut
in financing costs sort of falls to their bottom line,
so that's a tailwind for them. They have plenty of
(38:46):
free cash flow, and they're forecasted to grow their sales
and earnings next year. So you know, this is a
smaller cap company at about thirteen billion, and they actually
do pay a forward dividend yield, So I'm liking Texas Roadhouse.
(39:09):
Another stock that's come on my radar in the past
few weeks is Fabrinet. This is a tech stock and
they basically provide optical, electro mechanical and electronic manufacturing services
or an electronics firm. It's headquartered in the Cayman Islands.
Again scoring very strongly on my models with strong one
(39:32):
year and three year sales and earnings growth, a very
nice ten percent profit margin. They have three hundred and
sixty four million of free cash flow less capital expenditures,
and they're doing so with zero percent debt to equity.
So this is a really strong growth play because they're
forecasted to grow sales and earnings next year by about
(39:55):
thirteen point seven percent each. This is a nine billion
dollar company with plenty of room to grow. It does
not pay a dividend. By the way, the pe of
Texas Roadhouse the forward is twenty eight point two and
the forward of Fabrinet is twenty three point seven, so
slightly bigger than the SMP, but there's a lot of
(40:16):
growth in there. And then the last one I really
like is Doximity. And by the way, this isn't the
last one that I like. This last one I'm bringing
up today. This is a healthcare company. They provide cloud
based software solutions for physicians, medical record keeping, things like that.
A very strong score in my system. Again, strong one
(40:38):
in three year sales and earnings growth, with three year
earnings growth nearly two hundred percent. The company has a sorry,
the company has a thirty one percent profit margin, about
one hundred and eighty million of free cash flow, hardly
any debt, and strong forecasted sales and earnings growth about
(41:00):
a six point seven billion dollar company. No forward dividend
yield here. So those are three small cap names I
like on my radar.
Speaker 1 (41:09):
Great.
Speaker 4 (41:09):
I appreciate the ideas.
Speaker 3 (41:10):
Unfortunately I don't appreciate the fact that it's making me
hungry hearing about Texas roadhouse and it's nowhere near dinner
time here in the East Coast.
Speaker 4 (41:16):
Thank you for that.
Speaker 3 (41:17):
Anyways, I'm going to go to gym in a minute
about some advice and what people can do with their
fixed income portfolios. But Carly, I wanted to go to
you first just say, I mean, things are going to
change between now and the event.
Speaker 4 (41:28):
I know that, especially in the markets that you trade
and the trends that you follow.
Speaker 3 (41:32):
Is anything that looks I guess, either really attractive or
you know, in the commodity space, or some conversy on
the other side, anything you really kn't want to stay
away from here as we head into year end.
Speaker 5 (41:44):
Sure, So thanks my time. Just because of the nature
of commodities and the way that they trade, we're tend
to be a little shorter term time frame than a
lot of the other guests on this event. What I
will say is I don't have the markets exactly picked
out that we're going to talk about, but we'll probably
talk about crude oil, natural guests. Those are very popular.
Everyone always wants to talk about gold, so we'll probably
(42:05):
put that in as well. I'm going to I'm most
likely because we're looking at doing a trade with our
clients here next week in cotton. That's probably not a
market that most people trade or speculated in, nor should they,
but there seems to be a pretty rare opportunity coming up.
Speaker 1 (42:22):
In cotton.
Speaker 5 (42:23):
We're at multi year lows. We're levels that really haven't traded.
We haven't really traded below them except for the financial
crisis and basically the while you know, bear market in
twenty sixteen. Beyond that, we've stayed above sixty five cents
in cotton. So I think we're getting to a place
where there's just really long term scale trade opportunities. So
we most likely will mention that, and unfortunately, I'll probably
(42:47):
talk about bonds as well. I tend to be a
very big bond bowl down here. I just anytime that
I see the COT report screaming, let me just put
it this way, not only are we sitting on the
largest net short position ever in the history of the
ten year note, it's bigger than the last time by
like twenty five percent, So it's massive, massive short position.
(43:09):
I don't think I've ever seen this extreme of a
position in any market other than crude oil in like
twenty twenty two, when we were at one hundred and
thirty and everything obviously melted down the other way. I
think we're going to get something similar in bonds, so
we probably will mention that.
Speaker 4 (43:24):
Hey, that's great, that's that's that's great insights.
Speaker 3 (43:27):
I mean, I personally didn't realize that the numbers were
that stretched, So glad you could share that.
Speaker 1 (43:33):
Jim.
Speaker 3 (43:33):
Let me pivot to you, and just given your worldview
where you see interest rates going kind of you know,
what you think is going on with the FED and
so on. I mean, what does somebody do in their
fixed income portfolio if your base case kind of plays
out here over the next year.
Speaker 1 (43:48):
You know, it's interesting I'll answer the question then this way.
Everybody invests in index funds because the perception is no
one can beat the index, or very few professional managers
can beat the index. So by the index by the
S and P five hundred. As a matter of fact,
(44:08):
I was looking at the ETF flows year to date.
The top ten ETFs ranked by inflow, six of them
are S and P five hundred ETFs, and leading the
list is the VANGUARDESS P five hundred VOO with ninety
two billion dollars that's come into it, just that one alone.
(44:30):
And then IVV which is I shares, has about another
seventy billion that's come into that one. So that's true
about index funds that you know, it's very hard in
the equity market to beat an index that fixed income
it's very different. About fifty percent of active managers can
(44:51):
beat a benchmark into index into fixed income, so that
the same doesn't apply there. You want to, you know,
look to towards an index in equities, and you want
to look towards actively managed in fixed income. That is
really the best way I would say that people need to,
(45:13):
you know, look at how they want to manage Fixingcome now,
full disclosure. I do manage an index that does have
an et after tracks that that is actively managed. So
I'm talking my book here. When it comes to talking
about actively managed fixed income, it is the Bianco Research
Try to Return index, and ETF is WTBN. It's a
wisdom tree et ETF. That's the WB Bianco Nancy would
(45:36):
be the rest of the tickers. Just want you to
know that I'm a little bit talking my book now
that I've said that in the fixed income market that
there's always changes and there always is ways that active managers,
even if it isn't our fund can take advantage of.
Where would I be right now? I am positioned a
little bit bearishly towards interest rates continuing to rise. I
(45:59):
think that they have been rising for most of the year.
We started the year at you know, three point eight
eight percent and the ten yure where we, like I said,
a couple hours ago, we hit four fifty on the
ten year note as well. I'll make a quick comment
about the commitment of traders report. You know, you're right
it is the biggest short ever. But if you dig
(46:21):
down into the report, and there's been some academic studies
done on this, the giant short is in the lever
trader community, and that is not a directional bet on
interest rates. That is what is known as the basis trade.
The basis trade is where you go long stocks, short futures,
or vice versa, long future short I'm sorry, long bonds,
(46:42):
cash bonds, short futures, or vice versa short cash bonds
long futures. And that trade is probably the largest that's
ever been and it's the dominant way that hedge funds
are playing in the fixed income space. So what we're
seeing in the commitment of traders report is half that trade.
(47:03):
We're seeing that they are massively, massively short the futures
market against a massive lung in the cash market, trying
to play the spread between you two, not necessarily making
a directional bet. If it was a directional bet, I'd
be completely with you on the idea that what we're
seeing here would have been a very better signal. And
(47:24):
if you actually look at it's been that way for
a good part of a year now and it hasn't
been working. The other things I would suggest in the
fixed and come market is we are underweight credit. Don't
like the credit markets. We think that they're overvalued, that
they don't have as much opportunity. But wait, is in
credit where you get your yield? Yes, where would I
(47:47):
then pick to get my yield if it's not credit?
Either being investment grate or high yield mortgages or structured product.
I think that that's a better place. I would rather
get a five and a half or six percent mortgage
and get an get the income off of that, and
a five and a half or six percent corporate bond
try to get the income off off of that. Away
(48:08):
from that, I would be long the dollar. We do
put the currencies into the fixed income bucket as well too,
And there are a big market in treasury inflation protected securities,
which is a bet on inflation. I think those are undervalued,
and those securities have been performing fairly well over the
last couple of weeks, and that they'll continue to move higher.
(48:30):
If all of this sounds like it's a bit much
for the average investor to do, because these are kind
of specific kind of markets that you need to have
some noahu, I'll default back to my original comment. Fifty
percent of active managers can beat an index like the
Bloomberg Aggregate Index. The two biggest ETFs in fixed income
(48:52):
land are BND and AGG BND being I Shares, Bloomberg
Aggregate Tracker AGG being Vanguard's Bloomberg Aggregate Tracker. Fifty percent
of active managers when you're talking about US, Vanguard, Blackrock, Pimco,
anybody else along the line. Even if Nancy has a
(49:13):
fixed income fund as well too, throwing a dart at them,
about fifty percent of them can beat it. Now, obviously
you don't want to do that. But it's a very
different world than the equity market, is what I'm trying
to say, where it is a tall order for a
manager to try and beat a you know, an index
in the equity land, not so much in the fixed
(49:34):
income space. Yea.
Speaker 3 (49:35):
I appreciate that, Jim, Yeah, and I appreciate you you
getting that information out there.
Speaker 4 (49:38):
Obviously fixed income isn't backt a different world.
Speaker 3 (49:41):
Before I kind of move around the table, guy, I
just want to ask you if there's anything I know
it wouldn't really pretend to your fund, but then anything
you want to say on crypto, on bitcoin, I mean,
I know you've spoken about bigcoin, big picture for the
last few years and following your work, so I'm just
kind of curious as to what you're seeing in that market,
if there's any thoughts.
Speaker 4 (49:59):
On not to the move we've seen in the price,
but just.
Speaker 3 (50:01):
Sort of what the changing regulatory environment and everything else
might mean and you know, going forward here.
Speaker 1 (50:08):
Yeah, so you're gonna get me in trouble with all
my crypto friends because they already want to rip my
heart out as it is, because they because they think
I'm bearished and they think I've been shitting on a
bitcoin for the last couple of months. I haven't been.
I have said that the whole idea behind crypto is
you're building an alternate financial system. And if you're building
(50:31):
an alternate financial system, I am fully on board, all in,
full stop, let's go, and it's gonna be a disruptive
force like we've seen in all of the other technology
disruptive forces. My complaint of my concern is you're getting
away from that and now you're just you've got a
trading sardine that all you guys are just basically entered
(50:51):
the Paris Casino in Las Vegas and you're just basically
betting on whether number go up or number go down.
That'll be fun for a while, but if there isn't
anything behind it, as in a real financial system being
attempted to be built, it's not going to last. And
that's that's been my argument for it. But I still
(51:13):
hold out hope that they are trying to create a
new financial system. I would argue, as many that are
in the space that in the crypto space trying to
build the financial system, the last place that financial system
is needed is the United States. It has the rule
of law, We have a developed financial system. There are
a billion plus people that live in Asia, Africa, the
(51:36):
Middle East that have shaky currencies, that have rickety financial systems,
that are very, very worried about what they're supposed to
do with their money, how they're supposed to you know,
that their bank doesn't just steal it from them, that
their government doesn't to collapse their currency. They're looking for alternatives.
Eighty five percent of everybody on the planet owns a
(51:57):
cell phone. They are capable of accessing an electronic wallet
that is a gigantic you know, total addressable market or
a TAM for an alternative financial system. US in Europe
has had one hundred and fifty years to bring their
financial system to Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, and
they have it and there never will. So if they
(52:18):
continue on that idea of trying to bring them decentralized finance,
a store of wealth, a medium of exchange, Uh, then
I'm all in. We're gonna go to great places with crypto.
If Crypto is screw all that, just wait for one
hundred thousand, because then everybody's gonna fomo in and we're
gonna go to one hundred and fifty, and then we're
(52:39):
gonna sell it. We're gonna buy lambos, which is literally
what they're telling me on social media, and have fun
staying poor. It ain't gonna last. So my only complain,
Like I said, I'm not bearish on it. It's just
I'm worried that we're losing focus on what we're trying
to do here. If we're trying to build that financial system,
I'm in. I still will default that that that's what
(53:00):
we're trying to do, But more and more I get
a little bit more queasy that we're kind of losing focus.
We did this in twenty one. We lost focus on this,
and we all said the reason we want to buy
crypto is Matt Damon just did a commercial on you
know that everybody's got by Crypto and NFL eighty percent.
We did this in twenty twenty when we all thought that,
(53:21):
you know that we were all in on the idea
of number go up in NFL ninety percent, So hopefully
we're not going to be losing that focus. Again, I'll
default to that we're not now, but I get worried.
But again, crypto is a religion. And if you're not
all in on the religion and sing from every chapter
in verse, and I'm not. I'm singing for most of them,
(53:42):
not all of them, So they'refore from a heretic and
that's why they hate me.
Speaker 4 (53:46):
Hey, you know, I get a fortune favors of the
ball I believe.
Speaker 3 (53:49):
Wasn't that the quote from the Matt Damon commercial and
any of that appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (53:54):
Yeah, that was it? And how did it work out
for you over the next six months?
Speaker 4 (53:57):
Yeah, I hear you. I hear you.
Speaker 3 (53:59):
Just before I get some clue the remarks about the
Money Show events, Carly, I just want to give you
and give you an oportunity in Jason, just if people
want to get more information about what it is you do,
Where can they sign up? What website can they go to?
Maybe if I know you have a newsletter and so on,
So I guess Carly.
Speaker 5 (54:13):
You first, Yeah, if you're if you want to just
going to learn more about us, visit to currently trading
dot com. It's d E c A R L e
Y Trading dot com and you can set up for
free trial our newsletters we'll give you depending on how busy,
it's usually about three months, or try to give roughly
three months, so you'll give an idea of some of
(54:35):
the strategies we do. We be honest moosed to the trading.
Speaker 1 (54:38):
Recommendations we put out or related.
Speaker 5 (54:40):
We try to use the market's money by selling freement
to pay for options we're buying. Which does you know
Inclu Margins on this, but we explain that newser it's
kind of a teachers a good kind of newsletters. So
hopefully I like it, but you can get it for
freecy you're interested in.
Speaker 4 (54:55):
Got it great?
Speaker 3 (54:56):
It was kind of a little bit there, but that's
to Carlytrading dot com, I believe, So make sure you
check that out, and of course if you're not already
following her on Twitter, please do so you're gonna get
some great information that way as well.
Speaker 4 (55:07):
Jason, again, is.
Speaker 3 (55:07):
It just map signals dot com or someone would go
to maybe sign up for some of the work.
Speaker 4 (55:11):
You guys do.
Speaker 6 (55:12):
Yeah, that's right. Map Signals dot com map like a
map of the markets M A P S I G
N A L S dot com. We two. We have
a free newsletter you can sign up. You get very
unique insights from the viewpoint of these algorithmic representations of
(55:33):
unusual money flows that only we have. So if you're
interested in that, definitely sign up for the free info
and and and get a taste of what we do.
Map signals dot com.
Speaker 3 (55:45):
Great, thanks for that, Jason, I know Jim, of course
I already talk about the A TF Definitely check that out.
See a little bit about how that works as well.
Just in the closing minutes. Again, if you join late.
The reason we're doing this. All the speakers that you've
heard from here, Jim, Carly, Jason, Nancy Tank had to
drop off. She wasn't able to stay on, but all
of them are going to be speaking at the Money
Show Master's Symposium. It runs December fifth to seventh at
(56:08):
the Highest Regency, Sarasota, beautiful property right on the waterfront
here this part of Florida. I'm actually at Florida Native.
There's not many of us born and raised in South Florida.
I happen to be one of them. I'll tell you
that the weather in December, if you haven't been down here,
it's beautiful. It's a great time a year to come down,
enjoy some some fun, and pick up a lot of
great investing and trading ideas as well. And one of
(56:28):
the things that we pride ourselves in at Money Show
is essentially giving you a little bit of everything. You know,
we're not a metals focused conference. We're not just a
stock or an options focused conference. At this event, you're
going to hear from people with expertise and pretty much
every asset class, including alternative investments that is at the
symposium events we have tends to be a focus some
of the private market opportunities that are available in things
(56:51):
like energy, real estate, and so on, serving to get
information about that. We do have a couple speakers that
are going to be talking about cryptocurrencies as well Orunity
is there, so we touched on it briefly here.
Speaker 4 (57:02):
Jim had some remarks on bitcoin.
Speaker 3 (57:04):
You're going to pick up some guidance, advice, details on
what's going on in that market and how you can capitalize.
Speaker 4 (57:10):
So that's all going to be there as well. You
can check the link out Gab's got it there at
the top.
Speaker 3 (57:15):
You can check out details again on the schedule on
who's going to be speaking, the hotel, what tickets cost,
the Money Masters courses, all of that, and just one
last thing before I hand it over again in the
conversation in the comments section, I did also put that
link for what we're doing as our first in person
event in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 4 (57:34):
That's the Money Show.
Speaker 3 (57:35):
Traders Expo Las Vegas, February seventeenth to nineteen.
Speaker 4 (57:39):
That's gonna be one of the big shows.
Speaker 3 (57:40):
We kind of have the smaller symposium events and then
we also have the full on Money Show Traders expos.
Speaker 4 (57:46):
That event's going to be big. It's going to be huge.
Speaker 3 (57:48):
It's going to have a full exhibit, hall, conference for podcasting,
going on, a little bit everything.
Speaker 4 (57:53):
So definitely check that out as well.
Speaker 3 (57:55):
And really do appreciate Carly, Jim and you know, Jason
winning us here.
Speaker 4 (58:00):
Thanks so much to the whole Financial team.
Speaker 3 (58:03):
You guys are great, appreciate, appreciate doing us.
Speaker 4 (58:09):
Thank you so much.
Speaker 2 (58:10):
Great hearing from everybody today, Awesome insights from Silver, Jim
and Carly, really really good staff.
Speaker 6 (58:17):
Jordan, Now I'll turn over to you here.
Speaker 7 (58:20):
Yeah, What a day, what a week. Appreciate the whole crew.
That was a great conversation. What I really took away
from it was, you know, I really noticed everybody's hammering
the bonds right keep the keep your eyes on those bonds.
So we're keeping eyes there. And I really liked I
forgot exactly who who was speaking right there, but whoe
was talking about bitcoin right there? Sorry, I was driving,
(58:40):
so I wasn't able to look at my screen. But
I love your thoughts on bitcoin there. You're not bearish,
but I love your thoughts. You know, you're cautious on
the future of it, on whether it's just people you know,
trying to get their lambeau and get out, or whether
it's actually a change in our financial system right there.
So I think that was great. It was a great convo.
It's been a it's been a crazy week. I know,
(59:01):
me and Wolf got a lot of spaces next week.
So if you like spaces, give myself, give Wolf a follow,
give everybody a follow on the panel, and have a
great weekend everybody. We're we're gonna take a break from
the charts and we'll be back bright and early Monday.
I will be live on my YouTube as well Sunday
night for some Sunday Night charting. If anybody's interested in that,
I will get the link posted over the weekend, but
(59:23):
if not, we'll see everybody bright and early on Monday morning.
So see you guys, then enjoy the weekend.
Speaker 3 (59:28):
We'll have more interviews for you every week, so I
encourage you to subscribe to the Money Masters podcast so
you can stay up to date with the insights from
top money experts. You can follow me on Twitter at
real Mike Larson and follow money Show for more investing
and trading content on Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube at money Show.
Speaker 4 (59:45):
Thanks for listening, See you next time.
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