Who Wins a Race That has no Marc? AustralianGP Preview!

Marc Marquez is out, Marco Bezzecchi has a big penalty - the door is open for some major excitement at Phillip Island! I discuss Marc's surgery and Diogo Moreira joining the MotoGP grid - then preview the AustralianGP.

The Rundown:

- MotoGP News:
- Marc Marquez has shoulder surgery - out for the rest of the season?
- Diogo Moreira is coming to LCR Honda
- Marco Bezzecchi gets a last-minute penalty
- Australia! I preview Round 19 of the MotoGP Championship
- The Track - why Phillip Island is so awesome
- The Favorites - can Bezz overcome the penalty?
- The Watch List - are the young stars set to do battle?
- The Hot Seat - with a few unusual additions
- The Picks! For the Sprint and MotoGP races

Who do you think will win the AustralianGP? Let me know on Facebook or the Motoweek Reddit Sub.

Find all of the latest episodes at Motoweek.net, follow on Bluesky and Instagram – and you can support the show on Patreon!

Thanks for listening!

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Frommotoweek Dot neg It's the MotorWeek podcast with your host
Wilson Why, Hello, and welcome to Motoweek. My name is
will Sin. Thank you so much for listening to the
only Moto GP show on the Internet that doesn't know
how to make picks for a race anymore if Mark
Marquez isn't in it. I mean, it was so easy

(00:24):
up to this point. You just you know, picked Mark
and then on the rare occasion that he doesn't win,
he'll likely have wrecked out of the lead, or in
a worst case scenario, he'll be second. So it still
looks like I know what I'm talking about when I
make the picks. But I can't do that this week.
Mark is out for a while, probably for the rest
of the season, and we'll definitely be talking about that

(00:47):
on this episode of the show. I'm actually the majority
of the show, at least half of it is going
to be news because we also finally got official word
on the worst kept secret in the garage, Dioga Morera
is coming to MotoGP next season. But Mark or not,
we've got a race this weekend, so I will also

(01:07):
preview round nineteen of the twenty twenty five MotoGP World
Championship the Australian GP at the amazingly fast and fun
Philip Island Circuit along the shores of Victoria, Australia. But
before we get to any of the people who are
racing this weekend, let's start with one of the multiple

(01:28):
writers who isn't as we dive into the news. But
before we even get to the news, I just want
to take a brief moment to invite you over to
the website if you've never checked it out before. You
can get all of the latest shows as soon as
they're released at motoweek dot net. If you want to
get on social media, you can follow on Blue Sky
just search for motoweek or head over to Instagram at

(01:48):
motoweek USA, and most importantly leave your comments. Let me
know what you think of the mark situation, the penalty
that we're going to talk about here for Marco Pitzeki,
which I just found out about right before I went
to start recording, or anything else. You can comment on
Facebook at Facebook dot com, slashmotoweek dot net, or you
can head over to the reddit sub at our slash

(02:09):
motoweek and if you do want to support the program,
you can do that on Patreon at patreon dot com
slash motoweek. All right, so let's dive into some of
this MotoGP news from the past week, actually from the
past couple of days. The big story is that Mark
Marquez had to have shoulder surgery and things definitely went

(02:31):
from bad to worse for him in the wake of Indonesia.
Of course, if you remember, he got taken out by
Marco Bitzeki and a very scary tumble came up holding
his right arm. Now, first they said it was a
shoulder fracture, then they backtracked on that and said no, no,
he just fractured his collarbone. Then they went back to
the shoulder fracture but said it wouldn't require surgery. Well,

(02:53):
that all changed a couple of days ago. Mark was
re examined by his doctors and they decided that his
injury hadn't stabilized the way that they had hoped, and
that he would have to have surgery after all, which
was immediately done and is out of the way. The
end result, Mark is out and we don't know exactly
when he's going to be coming back. The official diagnosis

(03:15):
is a core coid fracture. And ligament damage. That's the
bone on the top of the shoulder blade, and then
there's also a ligament that goes across that that kind
of holds everything in place that was damaged as well.
According to a doctor that talked to the news outlet Marka,
the recovery process could take as long as sixteen weeks. Now,

(03:36):
doing a little bit of internet doctor research on my own,
looks like realistically we're talking anywhere from ten to sixteen weeks.
Mark being in the physical shape that he's in and
having access to all of the latest technologies that he
has access to, I'm thinking ten to twelve weeks is
going to be a safe bet. But even that, of
course would put Mark well past the end of the

(03:59):
season to be ready to get on a bike again. Initially,
when they said he wasn't going to have to have surgery,
Mark was hoping to come back before the end of
the year. Now that he's had it, I don't think
he'll be back, and really I don't think he should
come back this year. It just doesn't make sense. I mean,
there's zero reason to risk it. Both Mark and Ducatti

(04:22):
have everything that they wanted and they've accomplished everything they
set out to do this season already they've got the rider,
the team, and the manufacturer titles all locked up. So
I don't see a reason to put Mark back on
the bike unless he truly is ready to get back
on the bike, and he's not going to be by

(04:42):
the end of the season. Does it suck that Mark
won't be around for the final four rounds? Yeah, it does.
It'll also make things a little bit more interesting, as
we'll find out when we talk about this particular weekends
Racy Australian GP. There's nothing good about the situation, but
at least Mark is fortunate to have been as dominant

(05:03):
as he has this season, because for just about any
other rider in a similar position, leading the points but
having a more normal year, there's no way that you
can have that kind of injury and that kind of
recovery time with this many rounds left in the season
and not have it ruin your championship. But in Mark's case,
he's been so insane that it's not going to make

(05:26):
a difference at all, so at least it doesn't steal
his season or take the championship away from him, even
if we don't get to see just where the ceiling
would have been this year for him in terms of
wins and points, And I mean think about it this way.
He's still going to miss four full rounds and on
top of that, didn't take home any points in the
Indonesian GP, and he still is going to end the

(05:48):
season with the rider record for most points scored in
a year. That's crazy. And Mark is still the biggest
story not just of twenty twenty five, but maybe the
past decade in Moto GP, if not more. In the meantime,
Mkelly Piro is going to ride Mark Spike. That's another
sign that I don't think he's going to come back
at all for the rest of the season, because the

(06:10):
rule book says that in a situation like this, they
didn't have to replace Mark this weekend or even next weekend.
It's only after two rounds that they have to come
up with a replacement rider. But the fact that they
flew Pierro all the way to Australia and are putting
him on the bike right away, it's a pretty clear
sign that he's probably going to be there for the
rest of the season. Other film riders this weekend, Lorenzo

(06:34):
Savadori is going to sit in for Jorge Martin and
a Probia, another rider. I don't think we'll see back
by the end of the year, and then Paulus Bago
will be taking the track for KTM in place of
Maverick Vanilli's and I'm not quite sure what Mavericks status
is with his shoulder injury, whether he's going to come
back or not, and I'm not sure if the team
has said that, but I'll find out for the next episode.

(06:55):
So from there, from the bad news about Mark, let's
move on to something a bit more optimistic, because the
Moto GP grid for twenty twenty six is finally complete
with the announcement that it's official Di Yogo Morrera is
headed to the Premier class and it's about time that
we finally got the last seat sorted out. I mean,

(07:17):
the rumors have been floating around forever about this impending move,
and as it was discussed, he will indeed be headed
to ELSR Honda to take over the seat currently occupied
by some kout Chantra. I'm not quite sure exactly what
the delay was. I would imagine that a major part
of it had to do with the sponsorship situation. Idimtsu

(07:38):
is exiting along with Chantra, and since they're really only
interested in sponsoring an EJA talent Cup rider, then they
had to bring somebody else in. In this case, it's
castrol Is expanding their sponsorship from join Zarco's bike to
both ELSR bikes. And you know, that's a lot of money,
and that's a lot of contract language and a lot

(07:58):
of lawyers involved in all of that can take time,
but now it's done. Morera is headed to the premier
class for next season. Diogo currently sits second in the
Moto two Championship, and after some high drama in the
Indonesian GP, he's very close to the lead. Morera won
his third race of the year decisively over the current

(08:19):
Moto two leader and fellow Motor GP prospect, man of Gonzalez,
but Gonzalez was ultimately disqualified from the race for using
unapproved software on his bike. Whether that was a mistake
or not, the team says it was. I tend to
believe that it was a mistake. That's not something you're
going to easily be able to get away with, and
so it was a big mess up on their part.
But that disqualification then moved Morera to within nine points

(08:44):
of Gonzales for the championship lead instead of a twenty
nine point gap, and so that very much puts a
potential Moto two title within reach over the final four
races of the season. So let's talk about that situation
with Gonzales and Morera a little bit more closely, because
this is where things get interesting. Both of those riders

(09:08):
are definitely talented enough to get a shot in MotoGP
and I think pretty much everybody in the paddock agrees
on that part. But as we know, only one of
those two is headed to Moto GP next year. Diogo
gets the ticket, even though Manuel has more Moto two experience,

(09:28):
slightly better stats, and is, like I just mentioned, currently
leading the Moto two championship. So how did that all
work out? How is the rider who currently is in
second place getting the promotion over the rider who is
leading the championship. Well, I'll tell you what it might be,
but I'll also tell you why it doesn't really matter

(09:51):
that much. So Menu Gonzalez is from Spain, Diogo Morera
is from Brazil. There are a ton of Spanish riders
on the grid right now, including the entire Marquez family.
And then you've got Brazil. They're kinda sorta represented by
Franco Morbidelli, whose mom is from Brazil and his dad

(10:13):
is from Italy. But Moto GP is returning to Brazil
next year, and so let's be honest here, from a
marketing perspective, it would definitely be more advantageous to have
a Brazilian rider making his debut as a rookie in
the premier class and on that grid when the series
returns to Brazil from a giant gap. Is that the

(10:36):
reason that Marrera got the nod to Moto GP over
serious leader Gonzalez. Maybe. I mean, this is something that
is very important to Dorna, and we've seen them have
these discussions before, and we've seen rids get promoted before
or stay in Moto GP because of where they're from.
Now that being said, I don't want to go too

(10:57):
far down the suggestion path here because I don't want
people to get the wrong idea that Dioga Morera doesn't
deserve to belong in Moto GP. He does. But we
have seen these situations play out before very famously. If
you've been a long time listener to the show with
Joe Roberts, the American Moto two rider got an offer
to move up to the Factory A Prillia team, the

(11:19):
Factory A Prillia team, right, and he said no. And
the reason he said no, or the main reason he
gave her saying no, is that he didn't want to
be a passport rider. He didn't want to get a
spot on the Moto GP grid because of where he's from.
And the problem with declining a ride on those grounds is, hey,
you're not going to get asked again, and so far
he hasn't gotten asked again. But b it sets this

(11:41):
precedent when a writer says that and then turns it
down with the context of it being a bad thing,
then it cheapens that idea. It makes it seem like
if a rider isn't Spanish or Italian, that they're only
on the grid because of where they're from, and that
they don't necessarily just to be on the Motor GP grid.

(12:02):
And that's not the case. And that's why I say
that that might be the reason why Morera is gonna
come to Moto GP first, but it also doesn't matter.
And let me tell you why it doesn't matter. Morera
got a three year contract by all accounts from behind
the scenes. That means the final year of the thousand

(12:24):
cc era in twenty twenty six, and then the first
two years of the new rules. The most important years
of that contract are clearly the final two. Dioga Morera
isn't gonna win a championship next year on a thousand
cc bike. If he wins a championship, it's gonna be
in the eight fifty cc era. And I'm pretty sure
that by the time we get to that new era

(12:47):
that Manu Gonzalez is gonna be part of it. Right.
I think he's gonna be a rookie in twenty twenty seven,
and then he'll be in position to be the Fermi
and Albigare to Morera's Pedro Acosta. I feel very confident
that both of those riders will be in Moto GP
in twenty twenty seven. And so, yeah, would you like

(13:08):
to get there first? Obviously you want more experience, you
want more money, you want more prestige of being in
the premier class. But does it really matter if you
get there first. Potentially, if the rules weren't changing, yeah,
it would make a little bit of a difference. But
with that entirely new rule package, and both of those guys,
no matter how much experience they have in Moto GP,

(13:30):
being on this same footing, on even footing as young
riders who have never seen this package before and have
never worked through the development of a new bike before.
They're essentially going to be in the same spot in
terms of development. Very small difference between them and that set,
And so it doesn't matter if you know, Murrara gets
there first, except that there is a Brazilian round and

(13:51):
that's a thing, right And honestly, I can think of
a couple of riders that could have made room for
Mano Gonzalez and given the manufacturer a little bit more
upside in the future. Sure, but only a couple. And
that's a testament to the overall quality of talent in
Moto GP right now that you can have a writer
as talented as mand New Gonzalez that five, six, eight
years ago would have instantly gotten that promotion alongside Marrera.

(14:14):
Now he's got a wait a little bit. And that's because,
in my opinion, the quality of the talent in Moto
GP right now is the highest level I've ever seen.
So again, with that being said, if you're a fan
of Dioga Morera, which I would encourage you to be.
Don't get mad at me for saying that he probably
got the knob first because of the upcoming Brazilian GP.

(14:35):
It might be a real thing. But that's not a
criticism of Diogo. He's more than deserving of the opportunity.
And if there had been no room on the grid
this year in Moto GP, well, he was going to
come up in twenty twenty seven one way or the other,
whether there was a Brazilian GP or they never even
thought of bringing it back. Diogo Morrera was going to
be in the Premier class at some point. The only
reason that both of those top two riders in Moto

(14:57):
two aren't moving up is just a testament to how
high the bar right now in the premier class. But
I will say right now, right now that I'm gonna
go ahead and pick the Yoga Morera to be the
twenty twenty six Motor GP Rookie of the Year. Actually
this is good because they both get an opportunity to
be the Rookie of the Year, and they probably are
both going to win it because I don't know how

(15:17):
many other rookies are going to be there in twenty
twenty seven as well. All all right, so let's move
on from the news and instead start talking about the
race this weekend in Australia. And you know, I've said
a couple of times this season how it's been difficult
to pick a race, but none of them are as

(15:37):
tough as it's going to be this week. You've got
defending winner Mark Marquez out with his four wins and
five podiums and one sprint podium in Australia. Jorge Martin
is out after winning the sprint last year and finishing
second in the Motor GP race. Maverick Vinalez is out.
He won here in twenty eighteen. He started on the

(15:58):
front row last year. And so with all of those
regular favorites sidelined, who could win it? When a Moto
GP's most exciting and wide open tracks where Mark Marquez,
by the way, is the only the only repeat winner
in any points race here since twenty twelve, Well you
might think Marco Bozeki is a natural pick, and he

(16:19):
would have been had he not gotten a double long
lap penalty for this weekend's race on Sunday, And so
that's going to make it even more difficult to pick
this one, So let's talk about it, and I'm going
to put off the picks as long as I possibly can.
That means at first we're going to talk about the track,

(16:40):
this Phillip Island circuit. And you already know, if you've
listened to this show for a long time, you already
know what I'm going to say about Philip Island. Fast
and flowing. Those words are used so much in conjunction
with Philip Island that's kind of become a cliche. But
it's with good reason that those terms are so so
inextricably linked with this circuit because more than any other track,

(17:05):
it defines the category for those terms. It could also
be called the pummeler of tires as well, because it
really does destroy your edge grip by the end of
the race. But fast and flowing are definitely the terms
of the day, and it accomplishes this task without so
much as a thought to the other characteristics that we

(17:25):
see in other places. There's no stopping go happening here.
There are no terribly technical sections outside of maybe MG Corner,
which is the thrilling blind hairpin coming out of Luky Heights,
and that's it. I mean, they throw a couple of
seagulls in the mix. Every so often somebody hits one,
but other than that they are only a couple of
really hard breaking zones. It's a single minded place, but

(17:49):
in a very spectacular way, with plenty of big speeds,
plenty of long sweeping corners, and plenty of opportunities to
show off exactly how brave you are. And as such,
this track has been a bit of a wild card
and an equalizer. It's very much neutral ground in terms
of success. Like I mentioned a moment ago, Mark Marquez

(18:11):
is the only repeat winner since twenty twelve, and that
includes sprint races as well, although we've only had one
sprint race here, so obviously there hasn't been a repeat
sprint winner if you only have one race, and that's because, yeah,
you've got big speeds that cater to the horsepower bikes,
but you spend so much time on the edge of

(18:31):
the tire here with these big long sweepers, that momentum
and edge grip and reattraction tire management, they all become
part of the magic and part of the challenge. And
that's so many different disciplines that it's no surprise that
we see many different winners here based on the conditions

(18:52):
and who's having a good weekend. You know who happens
to blend all of those different disciplines the best in
that particular moment, under those particular conditions. This place is
so so cool. I would love to ride this track.
I would love to see a race at this track.
The entire place is awesome. But I do have three
favorite sections, starting with Term one. It's not only a

(19:16):
popular place to pass, but it's also where you get
to show off just how brave you are at Phillip Island.
You sling shot out of the final corner onto that
two hundred plus mile per hour front stretch. And Term
one is like a roller coaster. The track drops away
and even though you're going so fast, you're not breaking hard.
I mean, Term one is still about one hundred and
twenty miles an hour or so, so it does become

(19:38):
a competition of who can break the latest and who's
the most confident in those tires going into the turn.
The next place that I would not want to have
to race these guys in real life is Term four.
Honda Corner. Probably the best place to pass at Philip Island.
It's yet another game of chicken on the brakes. You're
carrying a ton of speed in from turn three. It's

(19:59):
the hardest breaking point on the track, and that means
it's a really easy place to make a pass, but
it's also a really easy place to make a mistake.
And then of course you cannot leave out the drop
from Luky Heights into turn ten, which is MG Corner.
It is thrilling on camera. I'm sure it's thrilling to
ride it. It is a crazy section. You get this blind,

(20:21):
slightly off camera right hander that crests immediately into a
heartbreaking zone and then the tightest corner on the track.
You can make a surprise pass there, but it also
then lines you up for the never ending series of
left handers back to the front stretch and you've got
to get those right to be able to carry as
much speed as possible down the front stretch back into

(20:42):
turn one and you're doing it all over again. So
that's what the place is like. You frame it with
the ocean as a backdrop and the awesome Aussie vans
cheering on their hometown favorite Jack Miller, and you've got
the setting for the spectacular and normally unpredictable race, and
that's without taking Mark Marquez out of the equation, giving

(21:03):
Bitzeki the penalty and then throwing the rest of the
field at it and saying, go figure it out. Let's
see where you finish. This absolutely could be the most
exciting race of the year. I think it'll definitely be
up there. So that's where they're racing. Now let's move
on to who is actually racing, because we know Mark's not,
we know Mav isn't, we know Jogy Martine isn't. But

(21:23):
these are the guys that are at least the most
interesting ones for me heading into this weekend. We're gonna
split things up like we normally do in a preview show,
with the favorites, my watch list and then the hot seat.
And the favorites are going to sound a little weird
this weekend because we're not starting like we have almost
the entire year, with Mark Marquez. Instead, we're starting with

(21:45):
Alex Marquez. And remember we're taking these guys in championship order,
and Alex, believe it or not, is now the top
rider in the points that will actually be starting the
race of this weekend. And that's a little strange when
you think about it, but of course it's all so
not because he's been amazing this year. Now compared to
the first half of the season, Alex has been a

(22:06):
little bit off. There have been some cracks in the
foundation for sure, and we've talked multiple times since Bruno
about his struggles with consistency, and Indonesia was a really
good example of that. Alex barely made it straight into
Q two at his brother's expense, by the way, and
then he qualified on the third row of the grid.
But then he proceeded to recover nicely for a fourth

(22:29):
in the sprint, and he grabbed the final spot on
the podium in the race. So the inconsistency isn't just
from round to round, it's within around. It wasn't very
good at all early on in the weekend, but he
brought it back around. Now. It does help in the
Moto GP race when the two best riders in the
field end up in a gravel trap, looking at you,

(22:51):
Mark Marquezen, Marco Pitzeki, but still the opportunity presented itself
and Alex was there and ready and took advantage and opportunity.
I could be knocking again this weekend with Mark's sidelined,
along with multiple other riders that have been winners and
podium finishers here in the past not on the grid,
plus Peco Bagnaya being Peco Bagnyaya right now and Marco

(23:15):
Bitzeki getting that double long lap penalty that throws the
door wide open for everybody. And Alex took advantage a
couple of weeks ago in Mandalika. Who's to say he's
not going to take advantage shit this track as well,
even though he hasn't really been terribly good here. His
best Australian GP finish was ninth. That was a couple
of years ago. So Alex, I think has a lot

(23:37):
going for him and a lot to race for in
his march to try to finish second in the championship.
His speed right now is a little bit concerning. He's
definitely not looking as dominant as he was in the
first half of the year, so that's my reservation about him.
But there's a lot that's working to his advantage heading
into Phillip Island, all right. So the next rider in

(24:00):
the favorites category is Peco Bagnyaya, and this is a
tough one for me to confidently place here for obvious reasons.
I mean, he was really really bad in Indonesia, like
really bad. Like I think that it was his worst
round ever in terms of competitiveness, how he looked out

(24:22):
there on track. And when I say that, I don't
mean his worst round of the season. I mean it
was I think the worst round of his entire Motor
GP career. But it came just one week after his
best performance of twenty twenty five. So that begs the question,
what peko are we going to get this week? The answer,

(24:44):
I don't know beats the heck out of me. We're
gonna know. I don't even know if we're going to
know in practice or qualifying. We might not know until
we hit the track running in the sprint on Saturday
and then the Moto GP race on Sunday. And Bagnyaya
has an equally confusing relationship with Philip Island. He's always
been good here, three podium finishes and in five Premier

(25:08):
Class points races at the circuit, he has never ever
finished lower than fourth, even in his tumultuous rookie season.
He not only finished fourth that year, that was far
and away his best round of his first year in
Moto GP, and yet he's never actually won a race
here at any level, and he was really bad at

(25:28):
Philip Island in both Moto two and Moto three. So
it's hard to predict based on what he's doing right
now this season, and it's also hard to predict to
what you'll get out of him based on what he's
done in the past, outside of the fact that in
Moto GP he has always always been a top five
rider here. Can you do that again? Can he finally

(25:50):
get his first Australian GP win, Well, it depends he
is capable of it. We saw that in Japan. But
it appears at this moment that he has to have
everything set up absolutely perfect for that to be the case,
or he won't be a factor at all, and we
saw that in Indonesia. So I'm trying to be optimistic

(26:12):
and I'm hoping that the confident Peco shows up this
weekend and that the bike is right and that we
don't have to crown him the new Maverick Vinalez. If
you're not familiar with what I mean by that, go back,
and actually I don't know what show to tell you.
To go back and listen to Maverick Vinalez is a
rider who is so dependent on his state of mind

(26:35):
and having all of the things surrounding him, with the
team and the bike be perfect. When that happens, he
flies by everybody. But it's so rare that that happens
that he struggles a lot. Pecobagyaya is looking very very
much the same way right now, and I hope he
shakes out of it sooner rather than later. All right,
So the final rider in the favorites category for me

(26:56):
Marco Bitzeki, who is in an even more unusual position
than the first two riders in this category. I mean,
after the wreck with Mark and Mandalika, everybody, everybody including me,
was certain he was going to get a penalty for
this weekend, which would have severely curtailed his chances in
a race where Mark isn't there to hold him back.

(27:18):
And then we heard nothing. For nearly two weeks. We
heard nothing, making you think, well, maybe there's not going
to be any action, maybe he's just going to go
out there on race. But no, no, no, At the
last possible minute, as I was sitting down to record
this episode today, the verdict came in and it is
not a long lap penalty. For mister Bitzeki. It's a

(27:41):
double long lap penalty for Bess on Sunday, which is
one hundred percent a game changer. Is it deserved? Well,
I mean, you can't argue bez was overly optimistic Sunday Amandalika.
He definitely forced the issue trying to make up places

(28:01):
when he had time. There was time to get to
the front, and even he admitted that. So I understand
a penalty for sure, two finaate laps as opposed to one.
That part you can argue, but I'm not going to
argue because it's still pales in comparison to the outcome
of that incident from Mark Marquez. And so when you

(28:24):
think about it in that context, a double long lap
penalty may seem severe to Marco or to a Prillia.
But the other side of that coin Dukati and Mark.
I mean, it would much rather Bes have no penalty
and Mark be on track, But instead Mark is probably
sitting out the entire rest of the year. So, like

(28:45):
I said, it's hard to argue with that. But the
timing of both the incident and the resulting penalty could
not have been worse for Marko Bitzeki because He is
getting faster and faster as the season has gone on
every round, improving to the point where he was the
odds on favorite to win both races and Mandalika. With

(29:07):
Mark Marquez in the field, that's a huge accomplishment for
both him and for Aprilia. And even with that big
mistake in the last Motor GP race, Marco is still
closing in like a freight train on Peco Bagnyaya for
third in the rider's standings, and even Alex Marquez is
technically not safe from him up in second. Although I'm
reasonably confident that Alex has things wrapped up, he just

(29:30):
needs to avoid any major mistakes from here on out
and this week with the double long lot penalty, that's
gonna help him. But the battle for third between Bez
and Bagnyaya, with that fight is still very much alive,
and Bittechi is in the perfect position to make a
major move forward this weekend. If Peco is unable to
step up his game and channel his Innermotegi on Saturday,

(29:54):
it's a real possibility that Bez is going to be
the rider to beat Sunday. You're throwing those two long laps,
and I mean I honestly think a win is off
the table. If he runs two long lap penalties and
still wins that race at Phillip Island, that's gonna be
like mind blowing stuff. So I think really bez has
to focus all of his efforts on qualifying, which will

(30:16):
minimize the impact of that penalty on Sunday and also
maximize his ability to score points on Saturday. And then
I think he also has to hope that Peco shows
up looking more like he did in Indonesia than he
did in Japan. Bitzeki's best finish in Australia was a
fourth in that absolutely epic twenty twenty two race. If

(30:36):
you haven't seen it, go watch it. The entire podium
was separated by two tenths a little over two tenths
of a second. Bez was only a couple of tenths
off the podium himself, and I think the top five
or six riders all within a half second. Just go
watch the race. I won't give it away for you.
Mistakes plagued Bitzechi in Australia last season, but he started

(30:56):
at the head of the second row in that one,
so I'm not worried about his overall speed, and I'm
also not worried about his confidence or the fact that
it probably haven't won here before. I'm just worried about
the penalty. But Zechi would have been set for a
huge weekend Saturday. That could happen Sunday. I'm not expecting
a terribly big result, but we'll see what happens, all right,

(31:19):
So that does it for the favorites. Let's move on
now to the watch list, And for me, this watch
list isn't necessarily the riders I think we'll finish immediately
off the podium. I think that a couple of these
guys have a chance to go out there and win
either of these races. But these are writers that I
think have an interesting story coming in based on how
they've been performing recently, and because of that, I'm going
to be keeping an eye on whether they can keep

(31:41):
it up or how they handle the situation at a
track as wild and crazy as Philip Island. And that
list starts, and again we're going in championship order here
with Pedro Acosta and his speed right now might not
be quite at Bez level, but he's also not far off.
A Costa has really brought that KTM to life in

(32:03):
the second half of the season, and he's really only
been held back by Did you guys hear that? I'm
literally recording the show. Somebody came screaming by on their bike.
Maybe it was Pedro Acosta, whoever it was, that was
a really loud exhaust. I mean, this room is pretty
sound tight, and that you guys could hear it? That

(32:25):
was really loud. Wow. Okay, back to Pedro Agosta. Ever
since Asin, I would say, and this is my opinion,
only Marco Bitzeki has made a bigger improvement, and during
that time I would say that Acosta has arguably been
the third fastest rider on track overall, behind only Mark
and Marco, and just ahead of Alex. Now, unfortunately we

(32:47):
don't know a lot about how Acosta and this track
are gonna get along. He qualified poorly last year, wrecked
out of the sprint near the end, and as a result,
was then ruled out of the motor GP race. But
I don't even care about that because he's got speed
right now and that's way more important, and I'm gonna
be watching to see if he can keep that momentum

(33:07):
going and how far it could take him on a
weekend when the main players from the past few years
are either off the table, not racing well, or have
a double long lap penalty. So I would say that
a double podium for Pedro Acosta is a real possibility,
And in all honesty, I think that that same idea
also applies to Acosta's our tribal or the person who's

(33:30):
positioning himself that way, who we're going to talk about
right now for me and Aldegear and I'll tell you
for me has to be on the watch list, because honestly,
who isn't keeping an eye on him? After that weekend
in Mandalika, what a stunning breakout performance. From qualifying to
the sprint to the race. The youngster captured everybody's attention.

(33:53):
And the big question for him will he keep it going,
will the speed carry over? Or was Indonesia a one off? Well,
let's try to figure that out, and we can look
at the rest of his season for a couple of clues,
because earlier in the year Aldiger scored a double podium
in Lamar and then the next round in Silverstone he

(34:14):
was fourteenth in the sprint and eighth in the race.
Then after his motor GP podium in Austria. He also
finished sixth in the sprint in that one. His follow
up was a promising fifth in the Bruno sprint, but
then a disappointing sixteenth once we got to the Moto
GP race. So is it possible that he has a

(34:35):
little bit of a hangover whenever he has some bit
of success and that that could cost him spots this weekend? Maybe?
But on the flip side, Aldigera was generally fantastic in
Australia at the Moto two level. He won the race
last year, He had a third year before that, and
then a fourth two years ago, and that encompasses all

(34:56):
of his GP experience at Philip Island, third, fourth and
a win. That's pretty darn good. So I like his
momentum right now and I like his chances of keeping
things going. The final rider on my watch list for
this weekend is a little bit out of the ordinary,
Raoul Fernandez, and he's in a similar position to Aldegar,
but to a much lesser extent. He also stepped up

(35:20):
his game in a relatively big way at Mandalika for
a breakthrough of sorts. He scored his first ever Premier
class podium in the sprint, then he was sixth in
the Moto GP race, and he did it all from
a fantastic front row starting spot. It was an overall
excellent weekend by Raoul Fernandez standards, and that performance was
building on a solid eighth and seventh place weekend at Motegi.

(35:45):
And Fernandez quietly has taken a nice step forward, and
it goes back beyond Japan, it goes all the way
back to Mugello. Before that point, he was a solid
outside the top ten rider. Ever since Mugello, he's been
consistently back half of the top ten rider. And he
did it all at just the right time to convince

(36:05):
a Prilia to not think about Manu Gonzalez for better
or for worse, at least until Fernandez's contract is up
at the end of next year, in which case I
think they'll definitely be thinking about Manu Gonzalez. And because
of that, you know, Raoul is going to have to
continue to show this kind of speed if he wants
to keep that track housepike beyond twenty twenty six. So

(36:26):
I'll be watching to see if he can capitalize on
the performance that we saw out of him. A Mandalika
to continue to move forward at a track that hasn't
really been great at all for him in the past,
and continue to take advantage of that relationship with David
Abrivio running that team, like we've talked about after Indonesia.
I think it's a major factor in the improvement that
we've seen out of Raoul Fernandez as being under the

(36:48):
guidance of somebody as knowledgeable and as great at handling
riders as David Abrivio is. All Right, so let's wrap
up our rider portion of the show by talking about
the hot seat, the riders that I think absolutely have
to go out and perform this weekend, and I'll tell
you why I think that. Let's start with Franco Morbidelli,

(37:09):
and the reason for him being on this list is very,
very simple. Pedro Acosta has passed him for fifth in
the rider's standings, and I'm pretty sure that top five
pays a better contract bonus at the end of the
year than being sixth. Now. Acosta has definitely been faster
than Frankie of late, but Morbidelli's secret weapon consistency that's

(37:32):
kept him in the mix despite missing a couple of
races this year and despite Acosta's second half speed. But
if Morbidelli is going to make a move to try
to get that top five spot back, he's got to
do better, and now is his chance. While he trails
KTM's best rider by just eight points the way Acosta
is riding, that means Frankie is going to have to

(37:54):
get himself into the podium mix. That's something he's never
done before in Australia on Moto GP bike. But last
year Morbidelli was fifth in the sprint and sixth in
the Moto GP race. However, the top two finishers in
those events they aren't racing at all this weekend, and
of the other riders that beat him one year ago,

(38:16):
only an Abastianini scored more points a couple of weeks
ago in Indonesia. The other riders did not do well
at all on or not riding well at all. So
the opportunity exists now Frankie needs to step up and
take advantage. All right. Next on the hot seat Luca Marini,
and you might be thinking, who wha, wha, wha, whoa
Wait a minute, you are always raving about Luca Marini,

(38:41):
and he finished fifth on Sunday Amandalika and he crossed
the line sixth on Saturday. Why if he's performing and
you're always talking good about him, is he on the
hot seat? Well, he's actually in this category because he
has been running so well for five straight rounds. Marini
has been showing consistent SI play speed. That's where the

(39:02):
bike is right now, and Marini is taking advantage of
it and making it a sixth place finishing bike. Now,
I want him to step up his game personally to
see if he can push that bike to the next
level and go after a podium, which I actually believe
he himself said in the build up to this weekend.
So we agree on at least one thing. Plus, Marini
is currently sitting thirteenth in the standings, but the next

(39:25):
three riders ahead of him are all within twenty points.
All three of those riders are separated from Marini by
only twenty points. I would contend that Marini right now
is better than a thirteenth place rider, and if he
goes after it, the standings will show the same thing.
So he's got to go out there and race for himself,
to up his own game personally and to put himself

(39:47):
in the running order in a more appropriate place. So
he's got points to race for, he's got personal stuff
to race for. I mean, then the final rider in
this category, we don't have to discuss him much because
it's going to be super obvious is Jack Miller. I mean,
this is his home track and it would be awesome
to see him run well in front of the Australian fans,
especially since he's been pretty terrible since confirming that he

(40:10):
will be back with Yamaha in twenty twenty six. He's
always been a little bit snake bit here. That home
field advantage thing hasn't really come through for him in
the past, outside of a very hard fought podium back
in twenty nineteen. So this is a good reset opportunity
both for the rest of his season and for him
personally when it comes to his relationship with Philip Island. Right.

(40:31):
So those are all the riders and now, unfortunately I'm
not going to be able to avoid it any further.
I have to make some picks, So let's see what
I come up with here, because I have no clue
actually the sprint, I'm pretty confident about the modal GP race.
I'm just going to put a blindfold on and throw
darts of the port and see who they hit and

(40:52):
hope I'm right. But in the sprint of feeling good,
So let's start there my top three finishers for Saturday,
and I'm going with Alex Marquez. He's been so good
all year long in sprint races. I think he can
take advantage of that fact while the other writers are
just trying to figure this place out, and so he
can jump into the podium positions. Second, I'm gonna go

(41:15):
with Pedro Acosta. He just needs to avoid mistakes and
he can be a contender in this one. But your winner,
Marco Bitzeki. You know, the Mark incident Amandalika definitely overshadowed
his speed. He is not going to be saddled by
the penalty in this one, and so I think he
has a chance to get everybody's attention again this weekend

(41:35):
in the sprint. We move on then to the Moto
GP race, and I'm going to be optimistic about bez
and I'm going to pick him to finish fifth. You know,
he had a great opportunity in the absence of Mark Marquez,
to score that first double wim weekend and at the
same time catch Peco for third in the championship, but
the penalty is going to make that very difficult, and

(41:57):
he might not even be able to make it back
to fifth depending on how fast the rest of the
field is. So I will give him the benefit of
the doubt and put him in fifth, but hey, if
he does better than that, it's gonna be a major,
major story. If he gets on the podium, it's gonna
be a huge story. Alex Marquez, I'm gonna put him forth.
I just don't think he's got the edge on the
field in terms of speed like he did earlier in

(42:20):
the season, and that's gonna be tough in these Sunday
races and then on the podium in third Franco Morbidelli.
He needs a big race. I think this track is
a relatively good match for both him and the Ducati
he's on at this point. The only problem, the only
problem for Frankie is that I'm picking the rider he
needs to beat to finish ahead of him. But I

(42:42):
think Frankie can have a good day, and when it
comes to first and second, I envision and I've got
my fingers crossed because this is such an exciting tracker
and these are such exciting riders. I really want an
awesome battle between Pedro Acosta and for me now de Gear,
mostly mostly to determine the top rider whose last name

(43:02):
starts with an A. And in this race, I'm picking
for Mean to be the second of the A Stars
and that's gonna make Alpine Stars mad. Since for Mean
isn't sponsored by them. I missed opportunity, by the way,
but Alpine Stars does sponsor Acosta. They got that one right,
and because of that, I'm picking Acosta to be the

(43:23):
main A Star. Is that that sounds bad, I'm not
going to say that anymore. I think Pedro Acosta, with
the absence of Mark Marquez and with the penalty to
Marco Boteci, then has the best opportunity here to take
advantage and win the race. So derecap. In the sprint,
I'm going Alex Marquez third, Pedro Acosta second, and Marco
Pitzeki your winner. In the Moto GP race Marco Bazeki fifth,

(43:46):
Alex Marquez fourth, and on the podium Franco Morbidelli for
me and al de Guerre and your winner Pedro Acosta.
Do you agree? Do you disagree? You know what to do,
get the Facebook, get the Reddit, tell me why my
picks are terrible and who you think is going to
win the race instead. And since we do have a race,
that of course means we will have a post race
show check back at the conclusion of the weekend. I

(44:08):
will recap all of the Moto GP action from Philip Island,
talk about the championship picture, and then give you my
take on what I am hoping fingers crossed is a
massively exciting and fun weekend of racing fender defender. Then
it's gonna be your turn. Give me your comments and
thoughts on Facebook, can Reddit, and remember, right after this race,

(44:29):
immediately afterwards, we are already, thanks to the new law
of double headers in MotoGP, going to finish the flyaways
next weekend in Malaysia. Then we come home for Portugal
and Valencia back to back, and that, my friends, is
a wrap. We will be done with the twenty twenty
five season. It feels like it just started. It feels

(44:49):
like we were just talking about whether Mark Marquez was
going to be able to beat Peco bag Naya or not,
and yet here we are we have an answer to
that question. Mark absolutely could win out but now I
feel like we have a new question. One of the
interesting side stories to Mark not being able to race
for very likely the rest of the year is that

(45:10):
we really do get to shed the spotlight on a
Marco Bitzeki in Aprillia. Can they do what they need
to do to be legitimate championship contenders when they hit
the ground running in twenty twenty six, And just as
importantly this battle between the youngsters. Pedro Costa looking better
and better as we head toward the end of the season,
albeit with a little bit of inconsistency, and then for

(45:33):
me and Aldiger with that massive breakthrough performance in Indonesia,
and so the deck is kind of cleared over these
final four races for those two to hash it out,
while Marco Bitzeki is trying to figure out exactly how
far he can take that Aprilia in terms of challenging Ducati.
It's going to be very very interesting from here to
the end of the season, and it all starts this

(45:53):
weekend in phillip Island and I'm looking so forward to it.
So until we talk again just a couple of days
from now, I want to thank you so much for listening,
right safe him i'll talk to you soon.