2024 NFL Week 14 Odds, Picks and Predictions | December 2, 2024

Opening lines for Week 14 of the 2024 NFL regular season are up! How have opening spreads and totals been moving since they've been released and where can we take advantage? Join Drew and Teddy for the Opening Line Report as we dive into NFL Week 14 odds, picks and predictions before action starts on Thursday!

Introduction 00:00
MNF MONEY REPORT: Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos 2:30
NFL WEEK 14: Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions 4:00
Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings 7:57
New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants 11:03
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans 14:00
Las Vegas Raiders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17:13
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers 21:18
Carolina Panthers vs Philadelphia Eagles 23:50
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins 27:30
Seattle Seahawks vs Miami Dolphins 30:24
Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams 34:10
Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers 39:05
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs 43:06
Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys 46:54
Q & A 49:58

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, but without further ado, Teddy covers. Welcome on in, buddy.
How are you feeling men?

Speaker 2 (00:05):
Great to be here, Jo, I'm feeling pretty good man.
We had a big weekend for the clients. I have
no complaints when we do what we're supposed to do.
Over Thanksgiving. We won on Saturday, we won on Sunday.
We're on a what seventy one percent all sports run
over last week. The NFL has been good for the
I mean since September, I'm sixty two percent in the NFL.
So no complaints for this past weekend. But you know

(00:27):
how it is on Monday morning, Drew All, that's rearview mirror.
Now what are we going to do moving forward? And
of course, this week is the last week in the
NFL with bys Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Indye, New England, Washington.
Six teams on bye after this week. Every team of
the played thirteen games, and the last four weeks of

(00:48):
the regular season weeks fifteen, sixteen, seventeen, and eighteen no
bys after this, so the last six teams go on
by this week. Before we get into it, I do
want to talk about promo. This is not live today.
This goes live tomorrow on Tuesday. That being said, it's
a sight wide promotion. It's a really good deal. All

(01:10):
access to the rest of December one ninety nine normally
two ninety nine was one hundred bucks off, and then
I'll get you every play every day in every sport.
We also have a great Cyber Monday deal going today.
Drew the Cyber Monday at owager talk dot com and
of course to take advantage of twenty five percent off

(01:30):
any regular price product at wager talk or sports Memo
for that matter, just use promo code cyber twenty five
to take advantage of that offer. Again, cyber twenty five
get to twenty five percent off any regular price package
at wager Talk or sports Memo.

Speaker 3 (01:48):
Teddy covers killing it in the NFL. Guys, we got
OLR coming up. But first quick look here Monday Night Football, Teddy.
We get the Browns and the Broncos. Broncos minus six
minus six and a half as the home FAI forty
two being the total. Quick look here, Monday Night Football.
Anything you want to throw out, yeah, I mean, we've.

Speaker 2 (02:06):
Seen pretty steady Denver money. There was some concerns about
bo Nix's health. He's got a bad back. He appears
to be fine. So we've seen a fair bit of
Broncos money come in, but there's still six is out there.
It's not like this line was two. You know. For
as much Denver money and support as we've seen, the

(02:26):
markets haven't gone nuts on the Broncos. I gave out
a free play on the bet on it last week
in support of Denver minus the points. I don't want
can to look in this game. We've seen over money
as well. Forty two. Now the prevailing total this was
low as forty at the open. That is a line
move I disagree with. On today's wager Talk today, I
made a case for the under in tonight's game, talking

(02:49):
about Denver's strong red zone defense in Jim Schwartz's strong
tracklreader against rookie QB so lean under. But the money's
come the other way lean Denver. The money continues to
come for the Broncos. I do not think we're gonna
see sevens before kickoff tonight, so likely six and a half.
But if you do like the Browns, no reason to

(03:09):
bet them now. I'd wait until closer to kickoff before
I got involved on the Cleveland side. You could see
a seven pop.

Speaker 3 (03:16):
Up getting the Opening Line Reports started right now Thursday night,
December fifth, one two. We're going down in rotation order here, guys,
Green Bay Packers at the Detroit Lions Lions minus three
and a half at most shops. Teddy fifty one in
the hook being the total Packers Lions Division battle in

(03:38):
the Motor City. To start us off Opening Line Report style.

Speaker 2 (03:42):
Sure, and if you're a regular viewer of Opening Line Report,
you know this already. If you're a first time viewer, first,
thanks for watching. We appreciate the likes, we appreciate the follows,
we appreciate the thumbs up, We appreciate you telling your
friends about the show, all of that. But for every game,
I'm gonna give you four lines, four sets of lines.
The first is called the look Ahead line Betible line
on this game from last week. Different books post different numbers.

(04:04):
I use the books from the Westgates Super Book. I
use the numbers from the Westgate Superbook here in Las Vegas,
which is worth noting for this game because they had
an off market number on this game with their opener.
The second number I'm going to give you is my
power rating number for these two teams. There's no situations
involved in that. There's no factor other than team a's number,
team b's number, home field advantage. So I'll give you

(04:26):
the look headline. I'll give you my powering number. I'll
give you where it opened last night, and I tracked
five books and their opening numbers. I'll well, I'll give
what I call my consensus opener, and that's a mix
of books that cater to recreational betters and books that
cater to the sharper betters. And then of course we'll
talk about where the line is this morning and what
the lines have done. From the opener. So four sets

(04:46):
and numbers. Detroit on the lookhead line at the Westgate
was minus six. Other books hung three and a half
or four and a half on that game. The Westgate
had an off market number, which is not usual for them.
They hung a six and a fifty two on this
ball game that actually was bet down. That was the
only number that really got bet down during the week

(05:07):
because it was so far off the other market numbers.
My powering number Detroit minus four. The markets opened three
and a half and fifty one and a half last night.
By the way, the total opened fifty two with a
look at the total of fifty two at the Westgate,
fifty one and a half last night, and that's basically
what we're looking at today, three and a half and
fifty one and a half. Four of the Lions over

(05:31):
the Packers. I mean, green Bay was pretty impressive against Miami.
Some of that may had to deal with Miami is
the inability to handle the snow their own teammates recall
them soft. That being said, they were up twenty four
to three and a half time. Jordan Love finished the
game with close to ten yards per past attempt and
that's a box score that lies. The second half of

(05:51):
that game was all garbage time. Any yardage of Dolphins
put up came after the game has already been decided.
So it's not a game where a green Bay box
score numbers looked particularly good, but they didn't need to.
Of course, the Lions are getting in rarefied air now.
You know. They've won ten in a row. That ties
a franchise record since with the nineteen thirty four Detroit Lions.

(06:15):
They are their best record after twelve games eleven and
one in team history, and certainly found a way to
win on Thanksgiving Day, which they haven't been able to
didn't cover the number and played a pretty crappy second half.
Detroit only two for five in the red zone in
that ball game, and a big concern for the Lions.
You know a team that has been hit with some

(06:35):
significant injuries on the defensive side of the football. They
had a bunch of them yesterday. Malcolm Arriguez, star linebacker,
he got hurt, Josh Pascal was hurt. Levi Onwor's Zeke
got hurt. At on the defensive line, McKai Wingo got
hurt during the game. And these are all linebackers slash
defensive ends slash defensive lineman. So Detroit all of a

(06:57):
sudden has some real depth concerns with their front seven
on defense. That defense has been a big factor in
their success this season. So definite concerns for Detroit injury wise,
and that certainly reflected in this number. With Green Bay
only three and a half, the look ahead a little
bit higher.

Speaker 3 (07:17):
Great start here, Teddy is we'll flip the script, guys, Sunday,
December eighth, going down in rotation order. We got one
two to one, one two two one o'clock eastern ten
Am Pacific kick top of the card. Here it's the
Atlanta Falcons in the Minnesota squad here the Vikings minus
five minus four and a half is out there, but
mostly minus five's here Teddy forty five in the hook

(07:39):
Falcons at Vikings.

Speaker 2 (07:42):
Look aheadline Minnesota minus three and a half total of
forty six. My powering number Minnesota only minus four. The
markets opened, as you mentioned, it was four and a
half slash five last night, a split line total forty
five and a half and basically, as you mentioned, mostly
fives out there right now. So we have seen a
little bit of Vikings money taking out the four and

(08:05):
a half. And I mean there were good things from
Atlanta yesterday in that bad home loss to the Charger.
The defense dominated the flow of that game, all right.
They had thirty five minutes possession. This is the defense
that only had ten sacks all year. They had five
sacks yesterday of Herbert in that ballgame. They give up

(08:27):
on what two first downs in the second half. I mean,
they played excellent defensive football. Offensively in a different story,
and you give him a touchdown, you know, three field
goals for the Chargers interned with the defense allowed offensively.
Kirk Cousins had a really bad game. I mean, he
was pretty awful. Four interceptions, he was only sacked once,

(08:49):
one of four in the red zone. You know his quotes,
I've got to play better. I'm so disappointed right now.
It hurts. I feel like that was the game we
had a chance to win if I played at the
standard I expect to that being said Rahee Marks after
the game. We got no issues with that, man. I
don't think it's gonna be the issue around here. The
guy's carried us. The guy's got us to this point.
We're six and six and in first place in the division.

(09:11):
We still got everything in front of us, which is
a pot. I mean, that's what you want to hear
off a game like that. But I mean Cousins was
awful and there's no sugarcoating how bad he was in
yesterday's game. And now, of course he's facing his former
team that should know his weaknesses and an elite defensive cordator.
I mean, we look what Minnesota did yesterday. Minnesota had
no business winning that ball game, all right, but what

(09:33):
they do. They held Arizona to one touchdown in six
red zone opportunities and Sam. Donald's been doing this again
and again, rallying them back at key portions of the game,
the fourth quarter, overtime. Donald's been really good. Kevin O'Connell
after the game. Stam has been absolutely huge for us
in these moments where everybody needs him. Again. He passed
for almost half his yards in the fourth quarter yesterday.

(09:55):
Last week in Chicago in overtime, six for six for
ninety yards. His quote, you know, dude, I'm just gonna
continue my job every single day, and I'm gonna keep
it that simple. Of course, six previous NFL seasons, he
never had more than seven wins as a starter. He's
got eight wins this year. Certainly positive sign for Minnesota

(10:16):
team that, you know, in a division that's tough. Vikings
continue to hold serve.

Speaker 3 (10:23):
We got one two three, one two four up next
one o'clock Eastern New Orleans and the New York Giants.
We are seeing the Saints minus five point road favorites
here Teddy forty and a hook being the total looks
to be the lowest total on the board for Sunday.

Speaker 2 (10:38):
Yeah, look ahead line here in New Orleans minus four
total of forty and a half. My powering number is
the Saints four and a half. The markets opened four
slash four and a half last night, total of thirty
nine and a half. And we're seeing the fours have
been taken out. Most of the four and a half
have been taken out. We're seeing mostly fives for New
Orleans right now, a total thirty nine and a half

(11:01):
last night. We have seen some over money as well,
so Saints money and over money initially. And if you
think I'm laying five points with the Saints, You've come
to the wrong show, because I ain't gonna lay five
points with I mean, there were some very positive signs
for New Orleans yesterday. They completely dominated the first half
against the Rams. Of course, they led only six nothing
after complete dominant. Alvin Kamara was great. The running game worked.

(11:25):
You know, Kamara had one hundred and twelve yards running
the football on that contest. You know, or Rizzy after
the game quote, we did a lot of things in
that game that we set out to do and played
the game in a lot of ways we wanted to,
but we didn't ext scooting crunch time. We had a
chance to win there. We had a guy opened the
end zone. We can't get the ball off, so unfortunate,
and it was unfortunate. That being said, I mean that

(11:46):
crowd was dead in the Super Bowl. The Saints are
down seven driving lay to It's like crickets. You know,
Derek Carr no picks, no sacks, but just one hundred
and eighty four on five yards per pass attempt, thirty
seven attempts, missing receivers. You know, Carr is what he
is right now, which is a quarterback that's not going
to get you to the playoffs. And then the injury
report after the game. Tyron Matthew got hurt. You know,

(12:10):
we had Eric McCoy get hurt or he was unable
to return. Another offensive line injury, Nick seal Devieri was
carted off with a knee injury. And then the Taysom
Hill injury, which is very I mean, Taysom Hill has
been their top playmaker in a lot of ways and
without him that offense is even more limited. I can't

(12:31):
lay this price with the Saints, and surprise, the markets
are asking us to lay this price with the Saints.
That being said, if you want the Giants, well, let's see,
they had their first lead since Week five against Dallas,
so I guess that's something they haven't even had a lead,
you know, I mean four point two yards for play,
three point four yards were passed it then with Drew
Locke thirteen penalties minus two turnovers, officially eliminated from playoff contention.

(12:58):
You know, Bryan de Ball, I don't like the results.
Nobody likes the results, but again I have confidence that
the people just got to do better. That's not a
bet und quote. This game not likely to get a
ton of action from public betters and the wise guys
right now, like New Orleans, not my money, I'll put
it that way.

Speaker 1 (13:19):
Yeah, this is a surprising one, a tough one to
get involved in.

Speaker 3 (13:22):
And guys, I did say that was the lowest total
at forty and a hook, but we've seen some movement
in that one towards the overt and the next one
towards the unders. So actually this one being the lowest
total and it's Jacksonville and Tennessee one o'clock eastern kick
forty flat at most shops being the total minus three.

Speaker 1 (13:38):
And a hook. That is the Titans at home in Nashville.

Speaker 2 (13:41):
Teddy, Yeah, look aheadline here Tennessee minus three even money,
so minus three plus one hundred, which means plus three
for Jacksonville, minus one twenty at the West Gate, a
total forty two at the Open my powering number with
Trevor Lawrence out again four for Tennessee. The markets opened

(14:02):
four and a half slash forty last night, and we've
seen some Jaguars money since then. Down to three and
a half and forty slash forty and a half this morning.
So a little bit of Jacksonville money, a little bit
of over money. So I had a good weekend for
the clients in the NFL and in college both. I
got one really wrong in the NFL. That was Tennessee.

(14:22):
I Tennessee plus the points in Washington, and I thought
about that. You know, I had really mixed thoughts on
that because part of me was like, I want to
ride this Titans team. I really do. I think there's
money to be made with them. And part of me
is like, yeah, they just got the win. Maybe it's
an exhale spot. And the ladder of the two was
absolutely right. They were down twenty eight to nothing in

(14:44):
that ball game before. I mean, there was over over
early and in the early second quarter. You know, there
was two Washington scoring drives and then two Titans fumbles
and then it was garbage time. The rest of the way,
you know, will live us after the game. Keep going,
it's all we can do. We just keep finding different
ways to shoot ourselves in the foot. It certainly wasn't
a good performance for Tennessee. I think they have a

(15:05):
better game in them than the one we just saw,
perhaps a divisional rival. We'll pull that out for them.
Of course, the Jaguars look all right, don't be fooled
by that box score. And the money coming for Jacksonville
here I think has something to do with that box score,
right Mac Jones was twenty of thirty two to two,
thirty five, two touchdowns, no picks. After Trevor Lawrence was

(15:27):
knocked out of the game on that dirty hit, well
guess what that was a twenty three to six deficit
with eight minutes to play, and then the Texans got
ready for the bye week. The last two drives on defense,
they didn't have a whole lot of juice and the
Jags were able to matriculate the ball down the field
into the end zone. Twenty three to twenty final bad beat.
If you had Houston, they were the right side in

(15:49):
that ballgame well after Lawrence was knocked out. They were
the right side in that ballgame. But I did not
view that as a buy sign on the Jaguars. You know,
Mac Jones. After the game, we definitely came together as
a team and fought hard for Trevor. Came up short
at the end, but I like that the guys responded, Okay,

(16:10):
guess what. The Jags still stink. I think Tennessee is
a better team than the markets do as well, and
again we've seen a little bit of early Jacksonville money. Yeah,
I think Tennessee's better team. I don't know if I'm
ready to lay more than a field goal with them
in any ballgame, even against the Jags team that is
headed towards the rebuild once this season is through.

Speaker 3 (16:32):
We got one two seven, one two eight up. Next,
guy's Las Vegas Raiders heading to the Sunshine State to
take on the Tampa Bay Bucks. We're seeing Bucks minus
seven point home favorites, forty five being the total. I
remember last week's show here at TC saying the Bucks
might be a by sign. They held off Carolina last week,
but non cover laying a touchdown here hosting the Raiders

(16:53):
and Raymond James.

Speaker 2 (16:55):
Yeah, look aheadline here Tampa minus seven and a half
total forty five and a half. My powering number came
Bucks minus seven. It was a split line last night.
There were minus sevens and minus seven and a half's
out there forty four and a half at the open,
so a little bit down from the look headline, and
the betting markets have taken out the sevens in early
betting action today. All right, sorry, the seven and a

(17:18):
half's an early betting action today. The line pretty much
seven across the board, and we've seen a little bit
of over money off the forty four and a half.
Now it's forty five. So the total markets aren't share
with you with the total. We have seen again the
seven and a half, the key number off Tampa, the seven.
We've seen the takeout. That's not necessarily an opinion about
the game. It's wise guys taking numbers around a key

(17:40):
number that they don't know is going to be there.
Later in the week, the Raiders will have a little
bit extra time repair they played on Friday, and I'll
tell you what, there are some really positive signs from
the Raiders in that ball game, ain't O'Connell ain't O'Connell's
better than Gardner minchee. All right, you can take downfield
shots and we saw it nine point seven yards per
pare adempt. He was sacked three times, but he threw

(18:01):
for three hundred and forty yards, two touchdowns, no picks
against k C. You know, nine penalties for one hundred
and one yards. They lost a turn of battle. The
running game worked for the Raiders twenty five carries for
a buck sixteen against k C. And obviously you had
the botch snap and the final field goal attempt. You know,
they spiked the ball of the Kansas City thirty two
to stop the clock, and then they wanted to run

(18:23):
one more play because Daniel Carson has already missed three
different field goals from fifty plus and well, the fotchnaff
no chance.

Speaker 1 (18:33):
Frustrating loss.

Speaker 2 (18:35):
You know, Antonio Pierce has to defeat these guys, battle
till the very ends of the clockhead zero. They believe
we're gonna win and fought their butts off to the
very end. All faces contributed to help us get in
that position. Aiden did the hell of a job. He
stayed in the pocket, made big time throw us rush,
pushed the ball down the field. The numbers say what
they're gonna say. I'm proud of my team, our team.

(18:56):
I'm proud of the fight. We came up short yet
again against the world champ twice. Now that big said,
the Raiders have fought the good fight. They've trailed by
double diggers in every game this season, and yet they
haven't been blown out repeatedly they've been in these games.
They've been officially eliminated from playoff contention after the loss,
and certainly an early start game off a loss like

(19:17):
that on the East Coast, it's not an easy spot
for the Raiders. But again, I think they're better with
O'Connell than they were with Minshew. As for the Bucks,
I mean they survived yesterday. He decided off. I mean
Baker Bakefield. I'm not going to call it a Kirk
Cousins level of performance, but he wasn't real good. You know,
two interceptions for sacks. He made a lot of mistakes,

(19:37):
but they ran the football, something Tampa's struggled to do.
Bucky Irving Rashean White combined thirty six carries, two twenty
eight on the ground. You know, defense wasn't great. Todd
Bowles after the game, the football gods were kind to
us the first half of the season. We wouldn't have
finished that one out. We did a heck of a
job fighting back all game. It was a tough game.
They played tough. Fither signed for Carolina. We made mistakes

(20:00):
the first half of the season. In this game, we
pulled it out. We've learned some mental toughness. That's a
good quote with Tampa, perhaps in a pickham game or
an underdog game. It's not necessarily the quote I'm looking for.
We're talking about weighing a touchdown. So yeah, I don't
know what to do here the markets. If taking the
good number with the Raiders, I would expect this game

(20:23):
to hang around seven all week. We could see some
public money for Tampa, but I'm not anticipating a whole
lot more line move on this one than what we've
already seen.

Speaker 3 (20:34):
We got ten am Pacific kickup next Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
We were seeing the Steelers minus six in the hook.
There is a minus seven out there, forty one and
a half forty two being the total. Do note the
Browns play Monday Night Football against the Broncos tonight, but
it's Cleveland at Pittsburgh from the steel City up next.

Speaker 2 (20:52):
TC look aheadline Pittsburgh minus six and a half forty
and a half my powering number heading into Monday Night football,
Pittsburgh minus seven and a half. I've been a little
bit off market on the Steelers of late, and it
served my clients and I very well. Mike Tomlin will
get another Christmas card. He's already cashed two big ticket
winners for me in November, and he cashed another one

(21:13):
for me yesterday that was a four star with my
strongest play of the day in the NFL. So Pittsburgh
is a team that I've admired and enjoyed in recent weeks.
Last night opened six and a half slash seven forty
one and a half was a split line last night.
We're seeing more six and a half than sevens today,

(21:33):
though there are sevens the books that the books that
have sevens, I would call them leading indicator books, so
that's worth noting. We could see this line move back
to seven if you like. Pittsburgh minus six and a
half again. We'll see what happens on Monday Night Football.
But if Cleveland doesn't show well, I would expect sevens

(21:54):
to be widely available. I feel like the Browns tomorrow
Russell Wilson through that pick six to open the game,
and then afterwards twenty eight, twenty nine to thirty eight
for well, actually twenty nine to thirty seven after that
pick six, four hundred and fourteen yards, three touchdowns, ten
point nine yards per pass attempt. The running game worked
with a downfield passing game. Najie Harris had a big game,

(22:15):
you know, Wilson, it was fun. We just had a
great time. We knew it was a matchup, we knew
it was going to be a heavyweight fight. Of course,
Wilson's now five and one as the Steelers starter. Concerning
defensive showing, I mean, Joe Burrow was phenomenal yesterday. Eight
point one yards per pass attempt. The defense got torched,
and yet they still found a way to win. You
don't expect the Steelers to win a whole lot of

(22:38):
games where the defense gives up well thirty one points
plus the pick six, But when their opponent gets to
thirty eight, that's not a poison. That's not a total
range that we expect Pittsburgh to win and cover. And
yet that's exactly what they did. Yesterday. We liked teams
that can win low scoring games and high scoring games
when the situation presents itself. From the Steelers have consistently

(22:59):
been undervalued in the betting marketplace basically all year long.

Speaker 3 (23:05):
One three to one win three two. Up next, Carolina Panthers,
Philadelphia Eagles. We see the Eagles minus twelve and a
half minus twelve heavy favorites here at home forty five
in a hook being the total. The Panthers hey rough season,
but they've covered a couple of games here heading to Philadelphia.

Speaker 2 (23:21):
Up NEXTDC, Yeah, look aheadline here Eagles minus thirteen total
forty five and a half. My powering number Eagles minus
eleven and a half. The market's open twelve and a
half slash thirteen. Last night total forty five and a half,
and this morning total hasn't moved, still sitting forty five
and a half. Let's call twelve and a half the

(23:43):
prevailing number. The thirteens have largely been taken out, so
for Carolina. Look, this was a non competitive team that
is now playing competitive football. Bryce Young has saved his
career let's say, no interceptions, only one sack. He's an
NFL quarterback. Now, you know. But that being said, you know,

(24:07):
the Panthers found a way to lose an OT coming
off an OT loss, playing against an elite opponent who
can blow them up to the line of scrimmage. And
for all that, Carolina is playing competitive. Look when it
comes to the offsive line, Carolina way below par. When
it comes to skilltson talent, Carolina way below par. When
it comes to the defense right now, Carolina way below par.
This is a complete rebuild from a team that had nothing,

(24:30):
and they're not gonna be good even if they're less
more competitive than they have been. Defense haven't gashed on
the ground all day yesterday six point one yards per carry,
two hundred and thirty six rushing yards, and they were
still in position to win the game before Chubehovered fumbled
in overtime. You know, one to four in the red zone.
Dave canlsa after the game. We have to put together

(24:53):
a full compliment of quarters, a full four quarters to
become the team we want to become. There's certainly positive
signs for Caroline. I'm not convinced it's an interesting game
because I don't love this spot for Philly either. You know,
that was a huge win against Baltimore. They're on a
big winning streak, you know, and now they're being asked
to win by margin again, a game where they could
easily look past Jamale Hurts didn't have to do a

(25:16):
whole lot, you know, against an elite Ravens run defense.
Take one had another one hundred yard game and Hurts
only had eleven completions for one hundred and eighteen yards.
You know. Someone asked Nick Sirianni asked the game how
he thought that his team did matching Baltimore's physicality. Quote,
they had to match ours. That was our message going
in that they got to match our physicality. Again, it's

(25:37):
a very physical team. That's a well coach team. This
team has a lot of good players. But yeah, I
want that question rephrased a little bit. Can Philly find
that same juice this week in an obvious flat spot.
I'm not convinced they will. And of course, the Eagles
one thing that definitely worked in their favor yesterday the
punter Brandon Man. What five punts and down inside the
twenty two, inside the ten. When you're giving your opponent

(26:00):
long fields for the entire game, it makes it that
much more difficult to score. If he does that against
Carolina and Carolina starts five drives inside their own twenty,
it's going to be difficult for them to cover. But
I'll tell you what my first lean is towards the
Panthers plus the points in this one. Although it's just
a lean right now, I haven't bet it yet.

Speaker 3 (26:22):
All right, tedday is we get the last early kick
up next one o'clock Eastern. It is the Jets at
the Dolphins, forty six forty five and a half being
the total, it's Dolphins minus six and the hook pretty
much across the board here. Jets at Dolphins from Miami
Gardens up next.

Speaker 2 (26:38):
Yeah, no time changes this week, no games getting flexed out,
no games getting flexed in. All the ten o'clock games
are at ten o'clock or one o'clock games for you
guys back east. All the four o'clock games are at
four o'clock or one o'clock here on the West coast.
There was talk about flexing the Monday night football game out,
but the Simpsons did a show around it or something
that they can't flex that particular game out, So move

(27:00):
into the schedule. So we have the Jets and the
Dolphins the last early start game. Here, look at lying here,
Miami minus six and a half total forty four and
a half, my powering Miami minus six and a half.
The market's open Miami minus six and a half and
forty five last night, and that's exactly where we're sitting
this morning. We could see sevens. Wouldn't shock me if
we saw sevens, but the fact that it opened, look
at it was six and a half open, six and

(27:20):
a half, my power ring six and a half, you know,
and hasn't moved yet. I'm not convincing the markets move
to seven on this bugle, because I mean, look, the
Jets aren't getting killed. They're just not winning any games.
You know. Jets at a fourteen to nothing lead, that
a kicker return touchdown, and they didn't score another point,
shut out the last forty minutes of the game yesterday
against Seattle, Aaron Rodgers through the ninety two yard picked

(27:43):
six to former Jet Leonard Williams. You know, the Jets
now fall to three and nine. They've clinched their ninth
consecutive losing season. Aaron Rodgers after the game, Well, there
are eleven guys on the field. Sometimes it's my fault
multiple times today and then the details aren't there in
some other spots too. Interim head coach Jeff Albrick, are

(28:08):
you conplaying a quarterback change?

Speaker 1 (28:10):
Quote?

Speaker 2 (28:11):
Not as of today, as opposed to No, we don't
think Tyrod Taylor is going to play. Why would they
play Tyrod Taylor. He's not the QB of the future
anymore than Aaron Rodgers is for New York. But there
were Jets have crashed and burned now two years in
a row. The EVER was there yesterday, The ever is there, everything,
the talents there for the Jets. The execution is not.
Rogers plays at the end of the second quarter. That

(28:32):
plays at the end of the second quarter cost us
this game. Then comes the fourth quarter. It's execution, it's strained,
it's the little things, it's accuracy, and we just have
a lot to go around, myself included first and foremost. Yeah,
the attention to detail hasn't been there. You've got the
Dolphins coming off a bad loss at lambeau Field. It
was twenty seven degrees winschill of eighteen. You know, Tua.

(28:56):
After the game, I would say, from my standpoint, our
team standpoint, we're not going to use any of that
an excuse why we didn't get the start we wanted.
Of course, you know they were down twenty four to
three at halftime. The box score is garbage, you know. Yeah,
they moved the ball in the second half two I
had three and sixty five passing yards, so what they
were never in the game. They banned the running game early,

(29:16):
only thirty nine yards on the ground. Calias Campbell, this
is an interesting quote off a bad loss quote. We
fought hard. We have no quit on us. I really
genuinely we were going to give ourselves a chance to
win in the end. Didn't work out that way for Miami,
but certainly it bounce back spot potential here with a
little bit extra time of repair and Miami still hanging

(29:38):
on to brief to slim playoff hopes even after the
loss against the Packers.

Speaker 3 (29:47):
After Noon kicks for the next three is we got
Seattle and Arizona. We were seeing the Cardinals minus three
point home favorites, forty five being the total it is
the Seahawks at the Cardinals from the Desert TC.

Speaker 2 (30:01):
Look aheadline, Arizona minus two and a half, forty six
and a half. My powering number only comes Arizona one.
I've been a little bit off market on Seattle the
last couple of weeks, and it's against me. Well, sir, me, well,
yesterday I had the Seahawks against the Jets. I don't
know if that was the right side or wrong side
or what the heck it was, but Seattle thought a
way to win the stupid game, which is all I
needed them to do. So anyhow, my powering number here

(30:23):
is only Arizona minus one. I'm a little bit higher
than the markets on the Seahawks. Last night opened Arizona
two and a half, and I think it's a fourth,
then a forty eight or forty five. That's a forty five. Sorry,
I can't read my own chicken scratch over here. Two
and a half and forty five and we're seeing mostly
two and a half there. Our three is popping up.
So if you like Seattle, find a three. If you

(30:45):
like Arizona, find a two and a half. Those you
know doing that kind of stuff on a Monday morning,
early on Monday. It's just smart betting. It really is
Arizona so much. I mean, they should have won that
game yesterday and cast my over season win bats and
now I gotta still sweat him for another week or
two in that regard. At one hundred and fifty four
rushing yards at Minnesota, they sacked Sam Darnold five times.

(31:08):
The defense played great till the end, but ten penalties,
two turnovers and one of six in the red zone.
They just couldn't put the biscuit in the basket when
they had their chances down by the goal line. Kyler
Murray after the game, that's a good team over there.
We had a chance to put them away and we didn't.
There's certainly some urgency for Arizona now fell out of

(31:30):
first place with that loss. As urgency against Seattle, they're
oh and six their last six against the Seahawks, including
a sixteen to six poorly played loss in Seattle just
two weeks ago. Worth noting for Arizona their first round
draft pick who's been sidelined all season, Darius Robinson on
the defensive line. He made an NFL debut yesterday and
he could potentially be an impact player moving forward. As

(31:54):
for Seattle, I mean, third straight win, sole posestion of
first place in the NFC right now and yesterday was
I mean, it was a bizarre game. You know McDonald
had the game. What a crazy game. I think it
was the first time it happened in the NFL. The
whole series of events in the first half. Our guys
were resilient. We didn't bat an eye, We stayed the course.
Geno Smith, I'm not going to make it about myself

(32:16):
about beating his former team. I really did enjoy my
time in New York. But we're on a mission right now.
The Jets were the next opponent. And that was the
same quote I talked about last week from Seattle, where
they're talking to talk about stacking wins. Put this one
behind us, let's get the next one. And of course,
you know Leonard Williams with the longest interception return touchdown

(32:38):
for a defensive linement in NFL history in yesterday's ball game. Obviously,
that was a huge factor in Seattle's come from behind
win against the Jets. Likely to be a little bit
tougher this week against an Arizona team. Not going to
say they're playing for their season, but it's a win
that they need against an opponent that's had their number

(32:59):
divisional rifle, let's add their number, guys.

Speaker 3 (33:03):
A reminder, Teddy mentioned it at the top. We get
one hundred dollars off December All Access package. It includes
all sports, all plays, handicapper of your choice, Teddy covers
Drew Martin are available there, all plays, including five percent
plays for one hundred dollars off All Access in December
starts tomorrow. Speaking of five percents, I got one up

(33:24):
for tonight Cyber Monday special going at wager talk dot com.
Five percent maxilim at four Monday night Football. Next game up,
we get Buffalo and the La Rams. We are seeing
the bills minus four. There are four and no hooks
out there, so land some points on the road cross
country here Teddy forty nine being the total bills at rams.

Speaker 2 (33:47):
Yeah worth noting that December All Access no promo code
needed for that. That will be live on Tuesday tomorrow.
For the Cyber Monday deal twenty five percent off all
regularly priced packages. Use promo code cyber two five at checkout,
so you will need the promo code for that. A
little flash sail we're running today on Monday. So let's

(34:10):
see what we got. Buffalo and La Power. I'm sorry, look,
headline bills minus three and a half, forty eight and
a half. My powering number only came two and a
half for this ball game. Markets were four slash four
and a half. Four kickoff last night forty nine and
we're looking at pretty much four and a half's right now.
There are some fours out there total holding at forty

(34:33):
nine for the Bills and the Rams. I mean, look,
Buffalo did some really impressive things yesterday against San Francisco.
Thirty eight carries two hundred and twenty yards on the
ground against the forty nine ers. Josh Allen didn't even
need to throw thirteen to seventeen one hundred and forty
eight yards. He became the only the seventh player in
the Super Bowl era to score a touchdown passing, rushing

(34:53):
and receiving with the game where he threw the past
and got the with Amari Cooper pitched it to him
behind the line of scrimmage, So we got credit for
the throwing touchdown and the receiving touchdown on the same play.
Josh Allen now the favorite. We have to lay a
price with him to win the MVP. Was an MVP
statement game offense didn't never turnover defense force three. You know,

(35:16):
Josh Allen after the game, This one feels a little different. Oh,
I'm sorry. And then the Bills clinched first place, clinched
the AFC East Division title with that victory. Again, they
clinched it December first. Josh Allen quote, this one feels
a little bit different about clinching the division title, so

(35:37):
this early in the season. So the cool thing about it,
we get to go out there, we get to play free.
There's really no repercussions for what we're doing. But at
the same time, we're chasing the number one seed. We
understand that, we know that we got to keep getting
better each and every week. So yeah, that's a you
know more Alan, it's a good feeling. You know, it's
going to be fun. I mean to go out there
and play free and play relax and play loose. I

(35:59):
think that could be a danger that. I think that
could be a dangerous team built now what seven straight
wins since those back to back losses Week four and five,
they're ten and two or better for the fifth time
in teav issue, the first time since nineteen ninety one.
It became the only eighth team in league history, the
first since the Colts in two thousand and nine. The

(36:22):
clinch the division title with five games remaining. The offensive
scored thirty plus in six straight games. Love this quote
from Racheul Douglas quote, it's like the participation trophy. All right,
Now we're participating in something bigger, but it don't really
mean nothing. You want some hardware, something you can keep forever,
the whole trophy or ring, or something you can remember
forever with. So we're a tool. Douglas saying, yeah, yeah,

(36:44):
we yeah, we won the division. Great, that's not our goal,
you know. Sean McDermott's quote about how Buffalo is going
to play moving forward quote, it's probably the next goal
for us is to position ourselves the best we can.
We control a piece of that and then some of
that we don't. So it's really about our love playery
week getting to the level that it needs to be,
and that usually puts you in a good spot one
way or the other. It'll definitely be interesting to watch

(37:08):
the Bills and see their intensity level this week if
they can match what they've been doing in reation weeks.
As for the Rams, I mean, they played a pretty
awful first half. They were shut out for the first
time since losing that Super Bowl thirteen to three. To
the Patriots with Jared Goff behind center, and then second
half came out and pretty much dominated, certainly offensively dominated,

(37:29):
and then they shut the Saints down in the red
zone when it mattered most three for three in the
red zone. Second half, they held the Saints without a
TV in both of their red zone chances. Matthew Stafford quote,
the first half was definitely frustrating, but we knew at
the same time every time we were handing it off,
we were getting good yards. You have to keep playing.
Football is a game of ebbs and flows, and the
Rams have clearly demonstrated that throughout the course of the season.

(37:52):
Sean McVay, all we can do is get one win
this week, and we were able to. It was improving
for our team collectively, and that's what I want to
continue to see. Certainly Rams matchup okay with Buffalo. If
I start seeing any signs that the Bills might be
not the fully intense after clinching that division and coming

(38:13):
off that huge blowout over San fran, maybe we'll look
at the Rams as home dogs, although like all Rams
home games, they won't have the home field advantage. Crowds
at Fort likely to come for Buffalo in this one,
even at Sofi Stadium.

Speaker 3 (38:30):
Interesting tidbits there, Teddy is we got a final afternoon
kick up. Next, Chicago Bears, San Francisco forty nine ers.
It is the Niners minus four at most shops there
is a three and a hook out there with some juice.
Forty four mostly being the total Bears at Niners.

Speaker 2 (38:46):
Next up, Yeah, look at line here, san Fran minus
six total of forty four and a half My powering number,
san Fran only three and a half over Chicago. Markets
were split. Last night we saw three and a half,
we saw fours, we saw four and a half total
of forty four, And this morning basically the markets kind
of split the difference. The three and a half are

(39:06):
mostly gone, the four and a halfs are mostly gone.
Mostly fours out there. But if you shop around, you
can still lay three and a half with San Fran
right now. We can still take four and a half
with Chicago right now. As the markets again, I've kind
of moved towards four. We have the Bears in the
first game after the head coach got fired Worth noting
Brown than the guy who was brought in as the

(39:29):
new offensive coordinator. When Shane Waldron got fired. Now he's
the new head coach, So someone that wasn't even there
for the preseason is now running the organization. That may
not be a great thing. I mean, And frankly, you know,
if Chicio hadn't figured out that Matt even Fluish has
lots of locker room. What happened in the final thirty

(39:52):
seconds of the game against Detroit was certainly the final.
I mean, that was a debacle and that's all on
the head coach. And okay, have in my head, I'm
going to save this out. But when your quarterback gets sacked,
you have to change that thought process. You have to
change it quickly. And he was us didn't do that,
and the results were what they are. You know, any
final was he five to seventeen games decided by seven

(40:12):
or fewer points. That ranks two ordred twenty first and
the last among coaches with at least twenty games that
close in the history of the NFL. And look, there
are positives for Chicago all right. Two weeks ago rally
back from eleven point deficit in the last twenty two
seconds against Minnesota and then lost in overtime this week
against Detroit. Pretty awful early on in that ballgame, didn't flinch,

(40:38):
rallied back, made a game of it, found a way
to lose again. But it's a Bears team that at
least has you know, in theory, they're going to get
some new coach bump. And in theory, we're talking about
a team that has shown that they haven't quit even
when facing adversity. San Fran another loss yesterday. This is

(40:58):
clearly not a super Bowl team. Doesn't look like a
playoff team right now. George Kittle after the game, and
I mean again, non competitive in defeat, which is not
what we're used to seeing for the forty nine ers
back to back weeks, and both were road games, both
were against quality foes, but I mean Brock Purty came
back and threw for ninety four yards. Deebo Samuel has

(41:20):
as many touchdown catches this year as Josh Allen does.
Christian McCaffrey herd he's out for the year. Defense with
the didn't force a turnover offense turn them all over
three times themselves. The forty nine ers zero to five
went scoring twenty points or less this season. The defense
can't carry him this year, and Green Bay ran all
over him. You know George Kittle quote. It feels dark

(41:44):
and gloomy and absolutely depressing. Honestly, I'll feel that in
a couple hours. Only way to make this feel better
is take advantage of next week and try to get
a win. Would make them feel better. Not with my money, for.

Speaker 3 (42:00):
Sure, Teddy, and shout out to the live chat guys.
We got Omar little bull Gritz in the house Chris
as well. Thanks for chiming in, guys. Any questions fire
away in the live chat. Also in the comments below,
got a couple from last week's show. We'll be able
to hit at the end here, so fire away in
the live chat as well. We get Sunday Night Football
and Monday Night football to end it here, Teddy one

(42:21):
for it is the LA Chargers Kansas City Chiefs up.
Next it is Chiefs minus four forty three being the
total Chargers at Chiefs from Arrowhead.

Speaker 2 (42:33):
Look at line here Kansas City five and a half,
forty four and a half. My powering number came casey
four markets opened mostly three and a half last night.
We're seeing fours across the board today total forty three
and a half. Last night someone took out the hook
we're seeing mostly forty threes out there this morning. There

(42:54):
is a forty two and a half for that total
out there as well as we speak in the city.
I mean, what do they do. They don't dominate anyone.
They find a way to win closed games. NFL record
extended fourteen consecutive ws in one possession game. That's insane.

(43:15):
You know, ten straight years that they made the playoffs.
That's the second longest streak in NFL history. Ten straight
playoff berths that they did. And they did it in
a game where Mahomes was sacked five times. The running
game had what sixty three yards on the ground, They
were outyarded by two yards per play. Casey at four
point nine, Las Vegas at six point nine. They still

(43:38):
won the game. And obviously some of that was kicker luck.
A lot of it was kicker luck. But there are
enough flaws with Casey that we have to point them out.
All right, Mahomes doesn't have time to throw. We're not
seeing great play from the tackles on the offsive line,
secondary is showing has been breaking down on a fair bit.

(44:01):
Penalties have been a problem. Mahomes after the game quote,
we hold ourselves to such a high standard. We don't
feel like we're playing our best football. We got to
find a way to build up and play great as
a full entire team. It's awesome that we're finding ways
to get wins that we're going for, but our goal
is to get to the Super Bowls. So Casey not

(44:21):
an easy team to lay points with it right now,
though the price range here more reasonable than it was
last week. As for the Chargers, I mean without JK.
Dobbins the running it didn't work. Only fifty six yards
on the ground. Their only touchdown yesterday's game came on
a pick six. The offense for the entirety of the
game three field goals, only two first downs after halftime.
Atlanta had ten sacks all year coming into yesterday's game.

(44:43):
They sacked Justin Herbert five times in that game. Lad
McConkey nine catches for one hundred and seventeen yards, the
rest of the team only thirty three receiving yards, only
ten first downs, only one hundred and eighty seven total
yards four point one yards per play, and mcconki got
hurt late in the game. Check his status. Haven't seen
an update this morning, but if he's out That is

(45:06):
a problem for an offense that's struggling. Quentin Johnson, how
did he bounce back off the Monday Night debacle or
the Sunday Night debacle? Whatever that frickin' awful game was.
I think it was Monday Night. Well, he bounced back
by getting twelve receiving yards on four targets, non bounce back.
They had a fake punt, they didn't work, and yet

(45:26):
they won the game. You had, Jim Harbow. It's a
beautiful thing we're witnessing, complimentary, winning football. The defense was
able to dominate, you know, justin Herbert. Obviously not the
way that we want to play. We want because the
defense today we have to do a better job as
an offense. We get that. Certainly. Chargersman fights the underdogs.
Chief started winning by margin, but only one of those

(45:49):
to only one of these two teams right now, with
an offense that we trust in case, despite all their
failures as favorites, they're not a team I'm looking at
step in front of again, even though there are a
game coming off of performance where they didn't live up
to expectations.

Speaker 3 (46:08):
A lot of comments on this one, guys appreciate it.
In the live chat Coin, Chris Little Bull grits. A'll
we'll answer the questions at the end of the show.
We got one game left here. It's Monday, December ninth.
It is Cincinnati and Dallas, and we are seeing the
Bengals minus five and a hook. There is minus six
out there, but mostly five in the hook right now,
forty nine and a half being the total Bengals at

(46:31):
Cowboys Monday Night Football TC.

Speaker 2 (46:34):
So this is interesting, all right, because I've been off
market on Cincinnati. Apparently I'm way off market on Cincinnati
right now, and I don't care. Look aheadline Bengals six
and a half, forty five. My powering number Cincinnati two,
the market six, forty eight and a half at the
open six, a couple of five and a half popping
up forty nine and a half. Todays. We've seen a

(46:55):
little bit of over money. We've seen a little bit
of Cowboys number of money. But again my number two,
the markets are six. That doesn't happen in December very often,
really doesn't. The Bengals allowed seven point nine yards per
play against Pittsburgh forty four points. Not good. They have
become the first team in NFL history in the NFL

(47:16):
history to lose four games or more when scoring at
least thirty three points. The defense has allowed thirty four
points or more four times their last five ball games.
Joe Burrow thirty touchdowns, five interceptions this season. Three quarterbacks
in the history of the NFL have done it before

(47:37):
in the first twelve games of the season. Their names
are Brady, Rogers, and Mahomes are combined five times. For
those three quarterbacks who have gone thirty touchdowns five picks
in the first twelve games, the Brady, Rogers and Mahomes
teams that did it five times. All of those teams
finished nine were nine or three or better. A couple
of them were twelve to zero. The Bengals are four

(47:59):
and an eight. With Joe Burrow playing out of his mind,
the quotes's coming out of Sincy after the game. Jamar
Chase quote, hard to process. We can't get a win
right now. We've had a little margin for error for
a while. Now. Gotta find a way that's not a
positive quote. Joe Burrow quote, I think we'll learn a
lot about who we have in the locker room. The

(48:21):
guys we can count on going forward, and the guys
we can't. It's a tough season, and the cornerstones of
this organization are gonna be remembered by more than just
this season. Will be remembered by how we handled this.
The truth is no, you won't. You'll be remembered by
the seasons that did well. But since he again is
a team, I can't lay six points with Cincinnati right now,
not with this defense and all of a sudden Dallas

(48:44):
back to back wins after a five game skid. The
running game worked against the Giants, ricretel Downald with a
one hundred yard game twenty two carries for one hundred
and twelve yard. Think was the first time all year
Dallas had one hundred yard a rusher. They didn't turn
the ball over, the defense forced to, including a pick
six Cooper rush. We just needed that one last week,
kind of get the ball rolling, felt that victory, feeling

(49:07):
the locker post game last week. Everything's kind of coming together,
feeling good about it. That's not the kind of quote
I'm getting from the Cincinnati sideline here. If I'm playing
Monday Night football, it will not be on the favorite.

Speaker 1 (49:22):
Great Stuff Teddy.

Speaker 3 (49:23):
We got a couple questions here, guys, Aubrey asking TC
what do you make of the super obviously wrong line
moves this past week and how to take advantage going forward.
He brings up Atlanta and the LA Chargers, Seattle and
the New York Jets as well. From this past week
line moves being off, do you carry that over to
the next week, Teddy.

Speaker 2 (49:45):
Not even having a little bit. When you see Betty
market support for a team weekend week out, you pay attention.
And the Jets have gotten Betty Market support all year.
The wise guys love them Jets. They love losing money
with the Jets. We saw Jets money yesterday again. And
if you're powering the Jets based on talent, the money
probably should go towards New York. But if you're powering

(50:08):
them based on results and execution and not so much
when it comes to NFL line moves, better's oftentime in
my opinion, and it's a great question. They spend a
little bit too much time worrying about who the pros
are on and who the jos are on, And in
my mind, you'll do better if you spend more time

(50:33):
just trying to figure out who you like and not
worry about who other people like, figure out where the
matchups work in your favor, figure out where the situations
work in your favor. The consensus data is interesting. It's
one of many different points you can get into lots
of because that's big consensus favorites. One yesterday, Seattle want
encourage me, they were big consensus. Oh, we can't take
a popular underdogs, Well, Pittsburgh won. Uncouraged me yesterday they

(50:56):
were a popular underdog. I'd worry less about what other
people are thinking and worry more about what you're thinking.
In my mind, people get so distracted by who do
the pros like? Who are the Joe's like? They lose
track of what's the right side of this game? What's
the matchup edge, what's the situation edge? Where does my

(51:18):
points bread in my powerty say, there's value in my mind,
those are more meaningful college basketball early season, you don't
want to be betting against the limus, you know, especially
on totals NFL by December, I'll bet against limemus all day,
no problem.

Speaker 1 (51:36):
That's a great point, Teddy.

Speaker 3 (51:37):
Guys, it's not apples to apples like sport to sport
time of the season as well. That was gold there, Teddy,
And one thing I'll add on to what Teddy said
is as sports betting content has become bigger over the
last half decade or so, it's almost easier for these
content creators to go look at public and an amount

(52:01):
of bets. It becomes very easy just to do a
video on that. And I almost think it gets overplayed. Teddy,
give me a matchup handicap over that type of handicap
ten out of ten times.

Speaker 1 (52:12):
Man, Like you said, it's just one piece of the handicap.
That was well said, Teddy.

Speaker 2 (52:17):
Yeah, and oh yeah, just give me one last thing
on that, because you made a great point. There is
an enormous amount of sports betting content out there. When
you wherever you get your sports betting content here, there, anywhere,
I would encourage you look for sports betting content from
people that actually bet, well said, because there's a lot

(52:42):
of crap out there from people that don't and have
never shown a profit betting and have no idea what
the f they're doing, and they got you know, the
TikTok or the what you know, the Instagram or the
the X follows, and it's nonsense. It's clickbait. This show
is not clickbait.

Speaker 1 (53:01):
No, absolutely not.

Speaker 3 (53:02):
Teddy always bringing the heat here here, guys, and I
appreciate all the questions in the live chat comments below.
If you're watching on replay, feel free to comment below.
Anything is welcome out there, guys. Where you agree, where
you disagree, what your picks are, and any questions we
answer from. On next week's show, we got Omar in
the house, we got coined. They're asking kind of the
same question here. On the last game, we broke down

(53:23):
Chargers not running the ball well since the first month
of the season. Omar saying here, Teddy and Coin on
top of that question, Teddy, what do you think about
the Chargers run game with Dobbins out.

Speaker 1 (53:34):
Two weeks now? It has really struggled.

Speaker 2 (53:38):
Yeah, really struggled. And it's the strength of the Chargers.
One of the strengths of the Charger is supposed to
be the offsive line, and that offsive line has really
not held up that well, particularly the interior. Their tackles
are played fine. Herbert's not been on it. I mean
you were yesterday, didn't They had a rough day, But
the interior of that offensive line is a problem. They're
not blowing holes open for the backs, and I don't

(54:01):
know that that's anything that's going to improve down the
stretch in December. So my powering number for the Chargers
is ticked. I mean hasn't crashed, but it's ticked down
the last couple of weeks. Although they showed us yesterday
even with I mean a lot of it as cousins
making bad decisions, but defense capable of winning games and

(54:21):
covering pointspreads even on a day where the offense does nothing,
and that complimentary football is a positive sign for LA.
So I didn't talk great in any significant way, but
I've ticked them down the last couple of weeks.

Speaker 3 (54:33):
Teddy, we got a question here at the top of
the show, actually from KJP.

Speaker 1 (54:38):
Question for Teddy.

Speaker 3 (54:39):
If Cleveland looks poor tonight, is it a no brainer
to take Pittsburgh to hammer these Browns in the revenge game?
You touched on it a little bit, but with tonight's
game pending, is that something you're looking towards minus six
and a half minus seven right now?

Speaker 1 (54:53):
Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

Speaker 2 (54:55):
If you bet Denver tonight, I wouldn't argue with the
concept of laying with Pittsburgh right now. I really wouldn't,
especially at six and a half because if the Bronco
if the if the Broncos smashed the Browns as numbers
likely to come seven tomorrow. So if you do like Denver,
and I lean in their direction but didn't bet it,
But if you like Denver, it does make sense to
make two anti Cleveland bets in this situation, not one,

(55:17):
as long as you get in the six and a
half because the six and a half may not be
there if the Browns have a rough night in the
mile high air.

Speaker 3 (55:28):
Teddy a couple of comments here on last week's show,
and can you touched on this before, but emergency betting
alerts and people asking about.

Speaker 1 (55:36):
Them, it's kind of water under the bridge though.

Speaker 2 (55:38):
Huh yeah, So we were doing emergency betting alerts, and honestly,
if we did the show Sunday night at midnight, emergency
betting alerts make a ton of sense. What I found
is that the markets move a lot on Monday morning,
right before we go on air, and the emergency betting
alerts that I was giving out weren't predictive enough. They

(55:59):
were good enough, and if they're crappy, I'm not gonna
do it, you know, If I'm not accurately. You know
what I what I what I So. What I changed
is I've been trying to say, if you'll like this,
bet it now. If you want this side, get it now,
And that's I guess the same as an emergency betting alert.
But it's not I'm predicting the entire market's gonna move
this way, because you know, so I was. I was

(56:22):
given out emergency betting alerts on money and then then
the markets weren't moving that way. So if it's not,
if it's not predictive, I ain't gonna do it anymore.
It's that simple.

Speaker 4 (56:31):
Uh.

Speaker 2 (56:31):
That that said, the concept is still very much within
the nature with within the show every week, I'm just saying,
if you like this side, bett it sooner or not later,
if you like this, and wait till closer to kick off.
And that's uh. In many ways, the point on one
of the points of the the NFL Opening Line report
is you know when to bett. I'm still doing that.

Speaker 4 (56:49):
And we just took out the do do leave uh,
which which I do miss, but it wasn't Uh, it
wasn't good, sure, teddy, I do miss that little uh,
that little slogan we had going.

Speaker 1 (57:04):
But Hey, guys, that is what it is. We got
time for Yeah, that's for the old timers there. I
appreciate that.

Speaker 3 (57:15):
Dan, All right, time for one more here, Teddy, we
get what c. W Ren in the house saying. Is
the prevailing thought still that home field is one and
a half point advantage?

Speaker 1 (57:24):
He looks at Pittsburgh and Cincy yesterday, would since he.

Speaker 3 (57:27):
Really be a one and a half favorite on a
neutral field one and a half home field advantage in
the NFL? How much different is that for you college
football to the NFL? Or is it team dependent?

Speaker 2 (57:37):
Teddy? So the my prevailing number is one and a half.
It varies by team. Since he is not a team
I give one and a half too. And then we
you know, they're their home field, and there are lots
of teams you're not going to give one and a
half to that. You give you the point half a point,

(58:01):
but one and a half is the prevailing number. But
you're you know, in the Giants home field worth one
and a half? Hell no, you know, Dallas, not really,
you know, lots of home fields aren't worth anything. Maybe
give them a point for travel, but even that has
been has proven to be too much. But So the

(58:21):
general thought is, yes, one and a half for home field.
And when I moved to Vegas nineteen eighty eight, that
was worth three, and it was worth two and a half,
and it was worth two. Now it's worth one and
a half. So the long term trend is home field
edge is worth less and less and not just in
the NFL. Same story in college football, same story in
the NBA, same story in baseball in a lot of ways,

(58:43):
you know most of the sports now college hoops, the
home court is still worth a lot in November December
less so as the season progresses. So that's a nuance
worth noting.

Speaker 3 (58:54):
Teddy covers at Teddy Underscore covers on Twitter at Drew
Martin Betts Guy's NFL Opening Line Report going each and
every Monday on the Wager Talk to YouTube channel ten
AM Pacific. Come back and join us next week as
well as we got the December all access special Guys
one hundred dollars off that starts on Tuesday. Weidertalk dot
com can check out Teddy there. It is all sports,

(59:15):
all picks five percent plays included. We get a five
percent up tonight max limit. The Cyber Monday Special going
on Monday for you guys watching here live and Teddy
throw it over to you. Anything else you want to
throw out there before we shut this down.

Speaker 2 (59:29):
Yeah, so guys here, your feedback in the comments section
blows me away every week. I appreciate all the comments,
and Drew and I both get in there. I know
last week I only had one chance to get in
there because I flew out of town. What are you
gonna do? I get to spend some time with my
family too, But be in there this week, and I
appreciate all the comments. I appreciate all the likes, appreciate

(59:50):
all the follows. If you do like the show, we
love it when you tell a friend take advantage of
any of the offers. A cyber Monday the December to
remember whatever you like, and good luck with all your
bets this week. Thanks for watching.

Speaker 3 (01:00:03):
Cheers for Teddy covers Drew Martin, shout out to Dan
Alexander behind the scenes. Guys, that does it for NFL
Opening Line Report will be back next week.

Speaker 1 (01:00:11):
Until then, cash those tickets. Thanks for tuning in.