2024 NFL Week 17 Odds, Picks and Predictions | December 23, 2024

Opening lines for Week 17 of the 2024 NFL regular season are up! How have opening spreads and totals been moving since they've been released and where can we take advantage? Join Drew and Teddy for the Opening Line Report as we dive into NFL Week 17 odds, picks and predictions before action starts on Thursday!

Introduction 00:00
MNF Money Report: New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers 1:17
NFL Week 17: Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers 4:10
Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans 6:19
Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears 8:42
Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots 12:00
Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals 14:45
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams 17:30
Indianapolis Colts vs New York Giants 20:14
Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders 23:43
Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints 26:50
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars 28:52
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills 31:24
Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34:00
NFC Playoff Picture 36:46
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings 39:30
Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles 41:56
Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns 44:42
Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers 44:50
Q&A 50:40

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in too, NFL Opening Line Report for Week seventeen,
as we got games coming to you Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday,
all on today's show, getting you on the right side
of some of these line moves, both sides and totals.
I am Drew Martin and joined as always by Teddy Covers. Teddy,
welcome on in. Welcome to week seventeen.

Speaker 2 (00:21):
Buddy. Yeah, here we are Week seventeen. It's Christmas time
and already to roll. So looking forward to breaking down
the sixteen games on this week's slate for you. It's
gonna be something of a look Opening line Reporters, Opening
Line Report. I'm not changing the show dramatically any given week.
That being said, when it comes to this DAYE of
the season, we're testing the players quotes. We're not going

(00:44):
crazy over the players quotes. So we're going to talk
a lot more about concepts and teams and that sort
of thing today than the recap that we normally do.
That being said, we'll still break down every game. We've
got all the points bread to talk about, the look,
headlines by powering number, et cetera, et cetera. So looking
forward to it too. Let's get right into.

Speaker 3 (01:01):
It, absolutely, Teddy.

Speaker 1 (01:03):
And before we start, guys, we do have Monday Night
football here December twenty third, the last game on on
Week sixteen, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers, Packers minus
two touchdowns pretty much across the board here, Teddy minus
fourteen forty three being the total it is the Saints
in Lambeau. Are you liking anything quickly Monday Night Football.

Speaker 2 (01:23):
I'm not involved in the game tonight. I feel like
it's too many points. And yet I get a handful
of times over the last month I'm like, oh, I'm
not worried about the cold weather, and I'll worry about
the cold weather. It's no big deal, U, And I'll
be at Poisey. Cold weather mattered a whole lot. You
know where Miami play that I had them, That cold
weather mattered a whole lot in that ball game too.
Was here and snowy and cold and buffalo in Green

(01:48):
Bay tonight, which is clearly something that the Saints are
he and I used to and may not react well to.
And of course it's one thing in the first quarter.
When you get the fourth quarter and you're down by
two touchdowns, how hard are you fighting when you're freezing
cold and you're not used to it. That is certainly
a question for the new orl inside. That being said,
this line sat at fourteen all week and it hasn't moved,

(02:10):
and it hasn't moved today, which tells me it's not
likely to get above fourteen, certainly at the vast majority
of book. I'm sure there are books that are going
to get cater to recreational betters that will be like
fourteen and a half by a kickoff tonight. There's already
one out there, and there may well be more, but
the broader line isn't going anywhere. Fourteen where I expected

(02:30):
to hold between now and kickoff and forty three as
the totalman ticked up a notch from the open. That's
another one too that I'm not anticipating any movement between
now and kickoff tonight.

Speaker 1 (02:43):
Teddy, nice breakdown? And yeah that dolphins, Where did that happen?
With the weather that was actually here in Lambeau if
you remember a couple of weeks ago?

Speaker 2 (02:50):
But yes, yes, Thanksgiving night, Yeah I remember, man, and
it was one of those I'm like, oh the weather,
you know, these cold team was called on the Chief
can hand and in general, I'm not afraid to take
a team that plays in warm the environments when they're
in the cold one game. Has it worked out for
me very well so far in recent weeks, unfortunately, and

(03:12):
the cold in both of those games. I was referencing
the unlv A Boise game and the Miami Agreen Bay game.
The cold definitely affected the two teams that weren't familiar
with and then I think there was another one. I
just can't think of it right now. Early, especially early
in that game, you know it was it was a problem.
Sure Teddy as SMU this weekend SMU at Penn State.

Speaker 3 (03:35):
That's another point.

Speaker 2 (03:36):
Where the cold weather absolutely changed that game.

Speaker 3 (03:38):
You know, yeah, no, no, no, for sure, Teddy is guys.

Speaker 1 (03:43):
We've got an NFL opening line reports starting here, NFL
Week seventeen, Wednesday, December twenty fifth. It will be the
first game of the week on Christmas Day here Teddy's
starting early one o'clock eastern, ten am Pacific, four oh one,
four oh two. As we're going down in rotation order,
it is the Chiefs and the Steelers. Looks like Kansas
City minus two in the hook as the road favorite

(04:03):
forty four being the total good one on Christmas Day. Here,
Teddy Chiefs Steelers, what are you liking in the Steel City?

Speaker 2 (04:10):
Yeah? Yeah. So for all these games, we go through
four sets of lines, all right. The first set I
call the look ahead lines. These the betable lines on
these games from last week. I used the numbers from
the Westgate Super book here in Las Vegas. Other books
have them. I've used the Westgate numbers for years. I
continue to use those. So I'll give you the look
ahead line for this game. Then I'll give you my
power rating number for the game. We'll talk about where

(04:31):
the markets opened last night and what they're doing today.
So Kansas City and Pittsburgh look ahead line here note
Pittsburgh minus two total of forty one. That being said,
that line came out when Mahomes was questionable for last week.
They didn't know if he was gonna play, so that
is a non Mahomes line. Obviously, it didn't open Pittsburgh

(04:53):
minus two and opened two slash two and a half
last night. Total forty two and a half and forty three.
My powering number has the Chiefs as a full field
goal favorite in this ball game. That being said, that
powering number could be adjusted based on the status of
George Pickens. Pickens clearly is someone who should influence a pointspread.
He matters to a points spread. The Steelers offense a

(05:14):
whole lot better with him in the lineup than without.
But my powering number has KC minus three. The markets
are holding mostly at two and a half this morning.
The twos are all gone from last night. We are
seeing two and a half with juice at a handful
of shops. I would not be shocked to see this
line move up to three. The big move here again,
Look at line forty one on the total open last night,

(05:38):
forty two and a half, forty three. We're seeing forty
fours at a lot of books right now for this total.
So the betting market's expecting points. Maybe it's a bet
against Pittsburgh's defense. Maybe it's a bet on the Pickens
coming back. Maybe it's a bet on Kansas City's offense
getting better. Nonetheless, over money has been the clear sharp
play for the Christmas Day opener, and.

Speaker 1 (06:00):
We got the second of two games on Christmas Day.
It is the Baltimore Ravens Houston Texans, and we're seeing
the Ravens. It looks like catch some money here in
the Waygerton live on screen. Here Daddy minus five, there's
even five and a hook popping up forty six and
a half, forty seven being the total.

Speaker 3 (06:17):
It's Ravens at Texans from Houston, Texas.

Speaker 2 (06:21):
Yeah, look at Lyne was Baltimore minus three total forty
seven and a half my powering number three and a
half for the ball game. And that's where the markets
open last night three and a half. There were fours
out there, total of forty seven. Today we're seeing the
money come four of Baltimore. And look, I mean when
we break down the AFC, all right, you know there's

(06:43):
three teams that have a chance and everyone else is
playing for the fourth place. You know it's Buffalo, Baltimore,
Kansas City, and one of those three teams is going
to make the super Bowl. In the AFC, we're not
going to see a team like the Texans or the Steelers,
who are playoff teams but not super Bowl caliber teams.
And then these appoints, which you're telling us that pretty
clearly with Case as road favorites, with Baltimore as road favorites,

(07:07):
the AFC is top heavy. These are all teams that
played on Saturdays. There are all teams that are in
the three games in eleven days scenario where coaching is
going to come into play. But in this scenario, you know,
we like Harve All a lot. You know, frankly, I'm
impressed with to Mika Ryans. I have been and when
I look at Houston, I don't look at them as saying, oh,

(07:28):
this is a team that is in a well coached squad.
That being said, for a situation like this, playing three
games in eleven days, the experience matters. I think that's
an edge four harbow. That being said, you know, Baltimore
is certainly a team that when you look in the
betting marketplace, not a lot of bargains on the Ravens

(07:51):
right now, and we're seeing that with the money pouring
in on Baltimore today. As you mentioned five five and
a halfs popping up thought, baltim Or is not a
team we worry about in that road chalk role. That
being said, it is a Texans team that can't play defense,

(08:13):
and that sometimes when you have a good defensive underdog,
they can hang around in games like this one.

Speaker 1 (08:19):
That's a good point there, Teddy is we'll flip the
script here, guys to December twenty sixth Thursday Night football.
Here we get the Seahawks and the Bears. It is
forty three and a hook being the total minus three
and a half. That is Seattle is the road favorite.
We're heading to Soldier Field Thursday Night football here at DC.

Speaker 2 (08:38):
Yeah, Seattle's playing. We got must win for Seattle, so
you're laying a premium in that, and yet the line
still not that high. Look look heat here with Seahawks
minus one and a half total forty one and a half.
My powering number Seattle minus three for the game, and
the markets pretty much you know, it was three and
a half by midway through the Sunday night football game

(09:01):
last night, total forty two and a half. We've seen
over money come into forty three and a half and
now we're seeing three and a half pretty much across
the board. There is some juice on the three and
a half at a handful of books for Seattle. And
we'll give the Seahawks credit. They fought the good fight yesterday.
They did not find a way to win the ball game,
second straight loss against both at home, but they played

(09:25):
Green Bay and Minnesota. Now you have you know, the
must win game in Chicago to keep your playoff hopes alive.
And that's really that's why the hook is here. You know,
from a true power rating standpoint, it's not a game
where the C lined in this range necessarily or aligned

(09:47):
higher than three. But given the nature, and you're gonna
hear a whole lot of this over the course of
the next week or two. Must win, need to win,
et cetera, et cetera. Remember this, the AMIN must win
stands for mediocre. If you have to win the game,
it's because you weren't a great team to begin with.
Of Course, the benning markets aren't taking a whole lot

(10:07):
of money on Chicago right now. That's who the reason
this line. The city of three and a half books
got buried. Certainly books that catered to recreational betters got
buried yesterday with Detroit money again. And it's this Bears
team that has gone through some pretty hard times when
you think about where they were before the fail mary
against Washington. Of course, they haven't won a game since.

(10:30):
They've lost their last three thirty eight to thirteen to
a Niners team that hasn't beaten anyone thirty one to
twelve thirty to twelve to a Vikings team, and again
the divisional games. The first time around, Chicago battled in
these divisional games. You know, they lost by a point
to Green Bay, they lost by three in overtime to Minnesota.
They lost by three to Detroit. Well, second time around,

(10:52):
Minnesota beat them by eighteen. Detroit beat them by seventeen
the last two tries. And they fought yesterday. You know,
they got some red zone stops. They just are not
good enough. Interesting game. Again, this line's not going down.
We're not about to see a bunch of Bears money
between now and Thursday. So if you like Seattle, it's
not going to hurt you to get on board with

(11:12):
a play right here. The question is are the Seahawks
good enough to go on the highway and not just win,
but win by margin? And I think a lot of
that has to do with what kind of effort we're
going to see for Chicago. If they battle, it'll be
a game. If they don't, it could get ugly.

Speaker 1 (11:26):
Like the breakdown Teddy and like that M and must
win means mediocre. I'm gonna remember that one. I'm sure
listeners out there as well. Man as we get Saturday,
December twenty eighth. Up next, guys at tripleheader NFL football.
As we're starting ten am Pacific kickoff four oh seven,
four oh eight.

Speaker 3 (11:42):
The LA Chargers, New England Patriots.

Speaker 1 (11:44):
We are seeing total forty two, forty two and a
hook minus five and a half. There is a minus, no,
that's mostly minus five and a hook that is the Bolts.
Is the road favorite here, Teddy?

Speaker 2 (11:55):
Yeah, yeah, So look at line here, Chargers six thirty
nine and a half my powering number only as the
Chargers four. The markets opened with the Chargers and New
England five and a half total of forty two last night,
and that's pretty much where we're sitting today, forty two

(12:15):
and a half. Where again we're seeing a fair bit
of over money, and yesterday a pretty good day for
over betters in the NFL. Myself not included unfortunately, but
there were certainly points in bunches, and that's something you
worry about in December Osteber. The weather. Note these moves,
you know, over money over and we're gonna talk about
more moves in cold weather places where we're seeing over money.

(12:37):
So it's not typical for this time of the year.
New England fought the good fight yesterday against Buffalo, and
they got up to the early lead. It was a
sweat in the fourth quarter. They found a way to
score late and ended up making the game a three
point game against the Bills. Some of that had to

(12:58):
do with Buffalo, it was not they bet on spot
for the Bills. If I'd had the guts, I had
taken New England plus the points yesterday. I'm kicking myself
for not making that bets. It was on my short
list and I didn't pull the trigger. That being said,
there's some as dog to Patriots are a quit team. First.
You know, the teams with the first year head coaches
down the stretch, you expect the effort. And it's not

(13:21):
like the Chargers. Again, the West Coast team traveling the
East early Star game cold and I talked, the Chargers
are lighting it up offensively these days. I know they
had a good game against Denver last week. I know
that we'll have extra time to repair because they played
in an early game last week and that's certainly affected
in this number. And of course the Chargers too are

(13:43):
in must win status, which means you're gonna lay an
extra half point or point with LA in a game
like this one. Pats fought the fight yesterday and they
really did. And the postgame quotes out of New England
weren't anything that, you know, it weren't like, oh, we
fought and we failed, you know, like, hey, we're competing.

(14:07):
I think this is a tough ask for LA, and
I think the price again, my powering number, you know,
a look at line was six and my powering numbers four.
So the markets say, at least according to me, that
there's a little bit of value on the New England side.

Speaker 1 (14:20):
Here, great breakdown, Teddy agreed, man scheduling spots, guys this week,
fire away any questions and I know we'll get to
it at the end here, guys, but it's a big
part of the handicap. This week a lot of week
day games and the next one on Saturday, we got
Denver and Cincinnati from the Queen City minus three.

Speaker 3 (14:39):
There is three with juice, that's.

Speaker 1 (14:40):
The Bengals is the home favorite here, Teddy fifty being
the total Broncos at Bengals the middle game on Saturday.

Speaker 2 (14:48):
Yeah, look aatline here, Cincinnati minus three and a half,
forty seven and a half. My powering number is only
two and a half for this ball game. The market's
open three forty eight and half last night, and right
now we're seeing three.

Speaker 4 (15:08):
There are a couple of three and a halfs out there,
total as high as fifty in a lot of books.
So again, it's in Cincinnati, all right in late December
and we're seeing over money early week.

Speaker 2 (15:20):
That's not typical. Of course, it speaks volumes about what
the bronc What the Bengals are nowadays is a team
that has, I mean Joe Burrow again yesterday against a
pretty tough Cleveland defense, making really good decisions, making really
good throws. Joe Burrow has played at an MVP level
this year, and the Bengals offense continues to be potent.

(15:42):
In Denver, we finally saw some cracks and a defense
that have been real good all year saw some cracks
last week, and certainly traveling to Cincinnati to face a
potent offense not gonna be easy for Bow Nixon company.
Of course, let's not forget the big prevailing theme in
this game. Cincinnati don't make the playoffs if Denver and
the Chargers make Denver. The Chargers both have the lead,

(16:05):
so this is a chance for Cincinnati to face the
team that is legitimately taking you know, right in front
of them in the playoff race, and that's a factor
in this point spread. That is why I think some
of the three and a halfs are out there for Cincinnati.
They get a chance, you know, they get the team
that they need to beat on their home field. And

(16:26):
since he's certainly in good current form, so I'm not
surprised that we're seeing some hooks here and again from
even though my powery number is a little bit lower,
from a situational standpoint, this is clearly a Cincinnati spot
at home against the team that's ahead of them in
the standings, and I think the markets are reacting to that,

(16:48):
and Cincinnati is I know they didn't cash overs yesterday.
I did everything to do with Cleveland, but given the
state of the Bengals defense, given the potency of that offense,
I'm not sure at all that over is the thought process.
Even though early week over money in the NFL in
Cincinnati in December is something that can be a little

(17:10):
bit dice.

Speaker 1 (17:11):
Sure, that is rolling the dice, but a good one
in the Queen City and heading down here to the
Nightcaps Saturday, December twenty eighth, we get an NFC West
battle Arizona in the La Rams. It is the Rams
minus six point home favorites, forty eight being the total
Cardinals at Rams.

Speaker 2 (17:29):
Next game up, Teddy, Yeah, this is again Saturday night,
December twenty eighth, one of those weeks. And when we
look at Sunday's card, look at all these great games
we're going through, or a lot of these great games
are going through. This might be the single worst slate
of games we're an NFL Sunday that I've ever seen ever.
So enjoy the football on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday, because

(17:52):
Sunday's football. I mean, there's a Hanflamarki games, but there's
a lot of really ugly matchups Arizona and l A
look aheadline Rams minus three and a half total of
forty nine. My powering number Rams minus five and a half.
I downgraded Arizona pretty significantly off the loss to Carolina
yesterday that ended their playoff hopes. Look ahead line here,

(18:14):
I'm sorry, look at the line of three and a half.
My party numbers five and a half. The market's opened
five and a half and forty eight and a half
last night the five and a half's already gone. It's
six is out there for La against Arizona right now.
Total forty eight and a half, pretty much holding, so
when I see much movement on that total. Arizona fought yesterday.

(18:36):
They fell behind early, they made a bunch of mistakes
at a horrible first quarter, rally back, rally back again,
and then found a way to lose it. They actually
tried to give Carolina they game a couple of different
times at the end of regulation in ot going forward
on fourth down from the deep in their own territory,
getting the conversion, and then ended up being in a
fourth and twenty eight anyway on the next series, and

(18:58):
once they punted, I'm telling that was a quick team.
You look at the look on Carler Murray's face, you
read the quotes after the game, you look at the
way the defense played that last possession. I worry about
Arizona's ability to get back up this week, I really do.
And the Rams didn't play well with an ugly slog
in New York yesterday found a way and you know,

(19:19):
again the defense making plays in a way that they
weren't making earlier in the season. The Rams are a
team that has, you know again, another slow start this year.
Last year they had a slow start when the postseason
won a playoff game, and they're looking like that type
of team here. I would not be shocked at all
if the Rams continue to take money between now and kickoff.

(19:41):
I do worry about Arizona's ability to compete this week.
They left everything on the field and they were out
of gas at the end.

Speaker 1 (19:48):
Turning the page from Saturday to Sunday, December twenty ninth,
starting off with Teddy teed up there. Maybe not the
prettiest day of football and the top of the card
here not necessarily a pretty one, Teddy, but something sports
betters can love. Indianapolis Colts minus eight point road favorites
now forty and a half, forty one being the total
at the New York Giants. Colts at Giants, kicking off

(20:11):
the Sunday slate here DC.

Speaker 2 (20:14):
Look headline Colts minus six and a half. Shit is
that a five? Let me see no, it's a one. Sorry,
I carry my own chicken scratch Colts minus six and
a half total forty one. My powering number Colts minus
six and a half. The markets opened seven and a
half and forty last night, and we're seeing eights, you know,

(20:37):
forty and a half today. Nobody wants the Giants. Nobody
wants the Giants. I don't want the Giants. You don't
want the Giants. The betting markets are going to struggle
to attract Giants money. The Giants performance yesterday was as
ugly as it gets. Of all the dumb things that
I've done over the last couple of weeks in the NFL,
not having Atlanta on my card yesterday might have been
the dumbest. You know, I was right there with the

(20:58):
Falcons and oh no, Atlanta can't lay this, and I
know Penics can play, and I know the Giants have quit.
So the Giants are being priced as a quit team
right now. A coach is gone, they have no quarterback.
You know, it doesn't matter if it's you know again,
they're like, oh, it's gonna be Drew Locke, this week's
could be Tommy DeVito. It's not gonna be a boiler
whatever the crap they're running out there, And that makes

(21:18):
no difference to the Giants put out a quarterback. It's
a team ready for the season to be over, and
the markets certainly reflecting that. The question is can we
lay a price with Indy? And Indy, you know, they
didn't have much to do much yesterday against Tennessee. Ow
they hand the ball off. I watched Jonathan Taylor click
and he cooked all day against the defense that could

(21:41):
not stop. We'll give the Colts offensive line a whole
bunch of credit for controlling the line of scrimmage. Do
we worry about indy defensive collapse down the stretch? You know,
the Colts certainly don't have the type of defense that
we're generally comfortable laying this with on the highway. And

(22:01):
oh Indy, yeah, there must win. My power rating six
and a half, the market seven and a half slash eight.
Some of that's Giants, some of that's Indye being priced
in to that must win status, even though you know,
the cults chances of actually reaching the postseason are pretty
darn slim. They're still mathematical alive. They still need to

(22:22):
win games. They won one yesterday, and the markets react
to that, hence the seven and a half slash eight.
But I mean, this is when the bookmakers don't have
an easy time of it with a team like the
g Men. All Right, they know the money is coming
the other way. They know there's no support, not wise guys, support,

(22:43):
not general betting support for a team like the Gem,
and so they have to jack these lines up higher.
So if you want Andy, you're certainly not getting quote
unquote a great value. That being said, you're betting on
the must win team and you're betting against the dead team.
And sometimes that alone can be profitable, although not always

(23:03):
when you're land more than a TD.

Speaker 1 (23:06):
And Teddy for the next few here, feel free to
cut me off if you're going in a different order.

Speaker 3 (23:10):
It gets kind of tricky, guys.

Speaker 1 (23:11):
We get, you know, later in the season with some
of these time changes.

Speaker 3 (23:15):
But I believe we're going down to just nation order, right.

Speaker 2 (23:18):
Just let me tell you how I have it. Yeah, yeah,
I've got Atlanta Washington next, and then we'll get into
Raiders Saints all the way through the games in rotation
order for Sunday. So okay, that's what I here.

Speaker 1 (23:27):
We go, Yeah, four thirteen four to fourteen eight. I
flex the Sunday night football. So you know, somebody is
interested here and it's the Falcons and the Commanders looks
like Commanders minus four here Teddy forty eight being the
total Atlanta at Washington for Sunday night football.

Speaker 2 (23:44):
Yeah, look at lying here, Washington three and a half,
forty six and a half. My powering number is only
Washington two and a half for this ball game. The
market's opened four and a half slash five last night,
and no surprise to me, we've seen a little bit
of Atlanta money down to four at most books as
we speak. Total, I'm seeing forty sevens, I'm seeing forty eights,

(24:05):
and I'm seeing obviously the number in between that duo.
So we are seeing some over money for an outdoor
game in DC in December early week, over money, of
course to Washington's dead nuts and over team as there is,
you know league right now that offense clicks, the defense
has some concerns. And again for all the success that

(24:28):
Washington had winning the game yesterday, despite the five turnovers,
the resiliency that they showed, they don't win that game
if they don't knock Hurts out of the game. All right,
Kenny Pickett missed how many open receivers And I know
DeVonta Smith dropped the game winning catch that would have
sealed the deal for Philly, but that's also you're used

(24:49):
to getting the passes from hurts and are getting from
the backup. And that's what happens in these scenarios, and
sometimes it's just a little bit off. And obviously, if
you had Philadelphia yesterday, it costs you the point spread,
it cost you the straight up, it cost you everything
was all the difference and Washington getting a lot of
credit for overcoming five turnovers and battling and they did,

(25:10):
and I'll give Washington all kinds of credit for that,
and they did play a game that is worthy of
some respect. But now you got to do it again,
and you're not against your divisional arrival team, and you
have a defense that maybe shouldn't be laying a price,
and you're laying a price to them. And I'll say
this about Atlanta. I know it was a nothing team yesterday.

(25:31):
I know it was a dead team in the Giants.
But Michael Pennix, remember him from Washington. His accuracy was there,
his decision making was there, and that was certainly the
case in yesterday's game. I upgraded my Falcons power rating
significantly off of that performance, even though it was against
a dead team because apparently not apparently, Kirk Cousin was

(25:54):
holding them back. Falcons a better team now than they
were a week ago with the success they had, even
against a dead team like the Giants. It is a
positive sign now. Doing it on the road in the cold,
in the in the nation's capital may not be as easy,
but I'm not surprised at all. Again, my party number
here is two and a half. The markets still sitting

(26:15):
at four.

Speaker 1 (26:17):
Yeah, interesting there, Teddy. Yeah, guys, always as the sports
betters pay attention to change, we got change there with
the Falcons offense and Panix. Like Teddy talked about from
Washington before that Indiana might have a little bit of
use to the cold in him. So we'll see here
in Washington and we'll go four seventeen four eighteen up
next one o'clock eastern, ten am Pacific. Kick here, Teddy

(26:38):
is the Raiders at the Saints thirty nine and a
half or forty being the total minus one and a
half or minus two. That's the Saints is the home favorite.
Raiders at Saints.

Speaker 2 (26:50):
Look aheadline here in New Orleans minus two and a
half total thirty nine and a half. My power number
for the game is a flat two, the markets a
half and forty and a half and obviously we'll see
Although sorry, I apologia two and a half and forty
and a half last night. I didn't think we'd see
a move this morning before the game we have. We've
seen Raiders money. The two and a half are mostly gone.

(27:12):
I'm seeing I guess the split line right now. There's
one and a half, so there's twoes. There's two and
a halfs out there. Look at the way you talk
free live odd screen, and it's certainly a scenario in
which New Orleans performance tonight. It's not gonna have a
huge effect on this. You know, if the Saints pulled
the outright upset tonight, maybe maybe they're three, you know.

(27:39):
That being said, If the Saints lose the game, they're
a dead team. The Raiders are a dead team. The
Raiders are a dead team going off a win, and
the Saints have shown fight, but it's not like again,
the only way I see this line getting the three
or higher is if New Orleans wins tonight or maybe
comes pretty darn close. That being said, Raiders snapped the

(28:01):
ten game skid with the win over jacksonvill yesterday. It
was ugly to watch, It was ugly to bet on.
They got the money one all was said done, and
they were the better team in the game. They actually
did you know that they controlled the line of scrimmage
really on both sides of the football for extended stretches
of that ball game. But now that the winning streak
is snapped, traveling east for the early start meetingless game,

(28:23):
I worry about the Raiders exailing off of yesterday's winning
and that's certainly not a team that's good enough to axail.

Speaker 1 (28:30):
Absolutely, teddy is we got four nineteen to four to
twenty up next early kick here ten am Pacific one
o'clock Eastern Tennessee and Jacksonville NFC South matchup here with
the Jags minus one or pick them depending where we're shopping,
forty one being the total in North Florida.

Speaker 2 (28:48):
Yeah. I have these two teams ranked tied for thirtieth
and thirty first in my power rings. The only team
that I have lower than Tennessee and Jacksonville is the
Giants right now, and I have these two teams tied,
and I don't know. I was debating do I give
the Jacks one point or one and a half point
for home field in this game? I decided one anyhow,

(29:10):
look headline here at Jacksonville one and a half total
thirty eight. My powering number given Jacksonville one point for
home field, you want to give them one and a half. Fine,
that's the standard, at least in my world, one one
and a half with my powering number. The markets last
night were all over the place. There was Tennessee minus one,
there was a pick them, there was the Jacksonville minus one.

(29:32):
Looking at the broader markets this morning, it's mostly Jacksonville
minus one out there, total of forty one. And it's again,
look aat line here, total thirty eight. Where's the forty
one coming from? From? Here? Between a couple of dice

(29:52):
the offense. I'll give the Jacks credit their defense. You know,
for all the struggles they've had, they continue to play
d Tennessee basically. You know, it's been a rough year
for the for the Titans, and for much of the
year they've had a statistical profile that's been much better
than their results. You know, you look at the two
teams that have the two bad teams that have consistently
taken wise guys support, it's been the Jets and the Titans,

(30:15):
and that's you know, for the Tennessee. It's all because
of the Tisco profile. It's much better than the results
have been. A lot of that has to do with
the quarterback play. But this, oh, Mason Rudolph's gonna do it.
And hey, maybe they found something in the second half
against Dandy after the defense just got gashed, run over,

(30:36):
embarrassed by the coltson I'll give Tennessee credit for fighting.
I'll give Tennessee credit for continuing to play offense in
the ball game and getting a couple of late tds.
I think they recovered an outside kick to make things,
uh look better than they did. Nonetheless, Mason Rudolph did
find some chemistry in the second half of that ball game.

(30:58):
Maybe you find some more. Certainly versus Levis, I gotta
say Rudolph is the better of the two qbs to
win a game today, but not by that much.

Speaker 1 (31:09):
Teddy, we'll head down here four two early kick in Buffalo,
we get the Jets and the Bills AFC East Division battle.
Here it's mostly Bills minus ten. There is nine and
a hook out there. That's the Bills is the home favorite,
forty six and a hook being the total Jets That
Bills next game up.

Speaker 2 (31:28):
Look at mine here, Buffalo minus ten and a half
total of forty seven. My powering number Buffalo minus eleven
and a half. Markets open nine and a half slast
ten last night total of forty six and a half,
and total hasn't moved and the side hasn't moved since
last night. We're still seeing nine and a half last
ten out there with a forty six and a half.
Now the Bills have clinched the division, they still have

(31:51):
an outside shot if Kansas City loses this week to
get the number one seed. So Buffalo's motivation here likely
to change pretty significantly based on Kansas City's result on
Christmas Day, so be aware of that. If Casey wins

(32:12):
that game, the Bills can no longer get the number
one seed and that may change things for Sean McDermott
and company moving forward. If Casey loses that game, it
opens things up for Buffalo to be alive for that
in week eighteen because they do hold the head to
head tiebreaker they beat Kansas City in that first meeting.

(32:34):
Now you know, I was dumb yesterday again, but it
was as flat as spot as it was going to
be for Buffalo all year, and I didn't pull the
trigger on to England, so I didn't trust him, and
I was stupid at fourteen point dog and the Bills
played like a flat And then I'll give him credit
for coming back and taking your toll of the game.
It was actually a sweat if you had New England

(32:54):
in the fourth quarter. They scored that late TD. But
I'm going to give the Bills credit for that performance,
not rip them for that performance. It wasn't a good
spot for Buffalo, and they still found a way. As
for the Jets, I mean, the Jets had their chances
against LA I did not like their body language after
the game. I did not like their body language in

(33:14):
the fourth quarter. I did not like their postgame quotes.
The Jets are a team that I have a hard time.
You know, they're playing in the cold in Buffalo and
executing this week. I worry about the spot for the Bills.
I know I will not be on the Jets. Jets. Jets, Jets.
That looked like a team that was done yesterday. And

(33:36):
if you're done yesterday, traveling a Buffalo isn't going to
make it a whole lot easier.

Speaker 3 (33:40):
In Week seventeen, great points there with the schedule and motivation.

Speaker 1 (33:45):
Teddy is we got Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Bucks up next,
Bucks Office Sunday Night Football, laying eight here at home
minus eight pretty much across the board.

Speaker 3 (33:53):
That's Tampa Bay is the home favorite.

Speaker 1 (33:55):
Forty nine and a half being the total Panthers at
Bucks from Raymond Games.

Speaker 2 (34:01):
Yeah, look headline here Bucks minus eight and a half,
forty seven. My powering number is eight. Was eight last
night at the open. We're looking at eight today pretty
much across the board, total of forty nine and a
half as we speak again, look, had total forty seven,
forty nine and a half right here for Tampa this week.
And obviously they didn't play well on Sunday Night Football

(34:23):
last night, a National TV loss to Dallas. We'll give
Dallas some credit for looking good in that ball. They
were coming to play, and Tampa made things interesting, didn't
make things interesting enough when all was said and done,
had a couple of chances at the end and weren't
able to take advantage that. And of course, from a

(34:45):
what does this mean for Tampa moving forward? All of
a sudden, Tampa's tied with Atlanta, and Atlanta holds a
tie breaker edge and they ain't getting a wild card spot,
So a little bit of a sweat here for Todd
Bowles and company. The urgency ratchets up a little bit.
And Carolina is a team they're supposed to be able
to beat. It's a bad Panthers team. They left it
all on the field yesterday. We'll give them credit. They

(35:06):
found it and then they played well enough to win,
and they responded to adversity. But I do worry about
the last place teams coming off a late season win,
going on the road facing a team that needs it
and a team that didn't play well last week. You certainly,
from a spot situation, teams like Carolina can and do exhale.

(35:31):
And Tampa's good enough to win this game by margin
if they play well. That being said the first year
head coach, you know, the teams with those first year
head coaches, you don't expect the late season lapses quite
as much. And Carolina has been playing competitive football. You know,
when I talked about the teams at the very bottom

(35:52):
of my power rating and the Giants and the Jags
and the Titans, note that Carolina wasn't there. They're a
notch or two above those teams. Now and deservedly. So,
yes they're bottom feeders, but yes they've been playing competitively.
So I don't know that I get involved in this game.
I probably don't, certainly not from his side standpoint. I

(36:12):
think there's a reasonable cases to be made for both squads.
But it's a Bucks team. I'm going to take it
aside here for a minute, Drew, because I can't and
merry Christmas, y'all. But I talked a little bit about
the AFC playoff picture. I'm gonna talk about the NFC
playoff picture. And I continue to look at the NFC
playoffs and going, you know, all the favorites are vulnerable,

(36:35):
all right, Detroit defensively they're vulnerable. Philadelphia they have hiccups,
they're vulnerable. So when I look at you know, and
those are the two clear favorites of the NFC. When
I'm looking for future bets for the NFC playoffs, I
want a team that's down the list a little bit.
You know. I talked about Tampa Bay or Atlanta as
a team that has, hey, we can win a couple

(36:56):
of games potential. You know, if I'm making NFC future bets,
they're not on Detroit and Philly. They're really not the AFC.
The chalk is coming out the NFC. I genuinely believe
that your Rams, Falcons, Vikings, Packers, Commanders, Slash Bucks. You know,
one of those teams is a little if five. Take

(37:18):
Field versus Lions Eagles. That's a good line. I want
to see if I can get a number on that somewhere.
What do you price it for the NFC field versus
Lions Eagles. I'll take Field in that bet, assuming I'm
getting at least pick them, or I'm perhaps even a
plus price, which I don't know that I would get that.

Speaker 3 (37:35):
I was just doing it in my head, Teddy.

Speaker 1 (37:37):
I mean I would maybe start started at minus one
ten on both sides, kind of just pick me see
what happens.

Speaker 2 (37:45):
So let's find the number I got Field.

Speaker 1 (37:48):
Yeah, guys on the comments, Yeah, for sure, guys, what
you would price it at? And hey, if you're finding
a sports book with it up, I'll try to look here, Teddy.

Speaker 3 (37:57):
Not sure if we'll be able to find that.

Speaker 1 (37:58):
And shout out to our produce Dan Alexander helping us
with the time change for the next two games, as
they're pretty much switched here. The Cowboys and the Eagles,
and the Packers and the Vikings, which is what we'll
talk here the afternoon kick four two five four six
pm Pacific, four to twenty five Eastern. It is the
Packers at the Vikings forty eight and a half, forty

(38:19):
nine being the total here TC minus one or minus
one in the hook, that is the Vikings at home
in Minnesota.

Speaker 2 (38:27):
And it is Christmas. I want to shout out some
of the guys behind the scenes, and you talked about
Dan Alexander, who's been tremendous. He puts the show together
every week. He's the guy in my ear, he's the
guy sending us notes as we go. We thank you Dan.
We wish you and your family are very happy Merry Christmas.
And of course let's not forget some of the other
guys behind the scenes, whether there' Chris Allen or Kyle
Cargil or all the guys in Detroit office. We appreciate

(38:50):
you and they help this content they create. You know,
Drew and I talk, but none of us experts on
how to get this stuff live on air like these
guys are we and the graphics and all of that.
And look, thank you guys. We appreciate all the behind
the scenes support from the wager talk dot com staff.
Thank you. Sorry I got distracted there. What are we talking.

Speaker 3 (39:14):
Talking?

Speaker 1 (39:14):
Green Bay at Minnesota? Minnesota minus one in the hook
at home good game?

Speaker 2 (39:20):
Huh fine, this is the one that's good, sunny And
of course they flexed it out this Sunday afternoon, which
they probably should have. Look headline here Minnesota minus one
total of forty nine. My powering number Minnesota, I have
a pickslash one, so it's really a half point for
the Vikings, which there is no minus a half line,
so I just write a pickslash one when it comes

(39:41):
up with that. But with home field, I have Minnesota
minus a half point. Market's open one and a half
forty eight and a half last night, and that's pretty
much we're sitting now. There are some forty nine's out
there for the total. Again over money off the opener
at you know, Minnesota, and I don't know. It's not

(40:01):
a weather game, but it's still it's not what I
tend what we always expect to see at this time
of the year. Certainly it's a Vikings team that the
betting markets have misspriced for extended stretches this year, we
talk about Minnesota and what they've been able to accomplish
is I don't want to hear any of as well
as Sam Donald anymore. You know, Sam Donalds may plays

(40:24):
all year, and he may played last week, and he
may plays on the road, and he's may played in
every game. All right, Sam Donald's playing like a former
number one with you. I don't know if he's a
number one overall, pick you certainly one of the the
top five. Edit, Sam Donald's good right now behind this
offensive line, with these pass catchers and this running game

(40:44):
and this defense in Minnesota so well coached right now,
they really are not like Green Bay isn't and the
Packers not a team I'm gonna rush to step in
front of necessarily when I have. It hasn't gone well,
But look at that. I mean again, this point spread
is telling us these two teams are prioraded basically even

(41:05):
right now, and Green Basement the higher poverty team all year.
So I guess the markets are finally starting to show
Minnesota perhaps the respect they deserve. After all, it's only
Week seventeen.

Speaker 1 (41:16):
And speaking of Dan Alexander, his Philadelphia Eagles are the
next game up and they're laying ten at home.

Speaker 3 (41:22):
There isn't nine in a hook out there as well.

Speaker 1 (41:24):
We're talking to Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles up next, Philadelphia
mostly minus ten minus nine and a hook here at
TC forty three being the total Cowboys at Eagles.

Speaker 2 (41:36):
Yeah, so look headline here Philly minus eleven and a
half total forty three and a half. My powering number
only come eight for the game, and that's a Jalen
Hurts powerty number for what it's worth. So I'm a
little bit higher on the markets than I'm a little
bit higher on Dallas. I guess right now in the
markets would be we're seeing nine and a halfs and

(41:58):
tens and the last there were lines all over the
place on this I didn't trust the screen. I put
a big X there because Dallas was playing, because there
were literally there was seven and there was eleven, and
I wasn't sure what was right and what was stale
and what didn't update properly, so I just put an
X there. Bottom line is today we're seeing nine and
a half slash ten for Philadelphia. I'm assuming that Jalen

(42:22):
Hurts is the concussion issue will be solved by next week.
So the markets again, this will be a seven if
it's Kenny Pickett, a seven or lower if it's Picket
in this bottom and muse official list is questionable right
now with the concussion knocked him out of yesterday's game,
and again Philadelphia wins that game. If Hurts is in
the lineup, pickets not.

Speaker 5 (42:44):
As good and the markets should react accordingly. Worth noting, though,
let's talk about Saquon Barkley for a minute, because Barkley
in this resurgence season, I'm telling you look gast and
you worry about an aging running back getting too many
carries down the stretch of a long NFL campaign and

(43:07):
perhaps not being as effective moving forward.

Speaker 2 (43:10):
I got my questions about Philadelphia right now, and again,
like I said, my primary number here only came eight.
So Dallas is you know, they're they're fighting a good
fight that is not a quick team. And the locker
room is right in Dallas. You know, locker room is
right enough that Mike McCarthy might get another shot.

Speaker 1 (43:28):
Absolutely, Teddy and Guy's a reminder for promotions. This week
we got kickoff the new year with an edge. Check
out Teddy covers Drew Martin any wader Talk Handicapper purchased
a thirty day all access pass for January and you
get the rest of December completely free.

Speaker 3 (43:43):
So that's kick off the new year with an edge.

Speaker 1 (43:45):
Also year round winning for just ninety nine a month,
you can get the handicapper of your choice. Teddy Covers
a great, great choice there, and get him for a
full year, every sport, every play five percents included for
just ninety nine dollars a month.

Speaker 3 (44:00):
Both of those available at waiger talk dot com. Check
out Teddy Covers Drew Martin.

Speaker 1 (44:05):
As we got one game left on Sunday one on
Monday here, guys, and we'll answer any questions at the end,
so fire away in the live chat, also in the
comments below. If you're watching on replay, that works as well. Guys,
please smash that like button. Teddy and myself will be
in there chiming it up with you, answering any questions
on next week's show.

Speaker 3 (44:22):
As we got the.

Speaker 1 (44:23):
Final game on Sunday, at least in rotation order, this
will be an afternoon kick Teddy. It is the Miami
Dolphins in the Cleveland Browns. We are seeing Dolphins minus
six in the hook as the Road favorite forty being
the total is the Dolphins heading up to a cold
weather city here Teddy and laying six and a half.
What do we thinking, Dolphins and Browns than the Sunday Slate.

Speaker 2 (44:46):
Yeah, there is one more problem I want to talk about.
Just a really good deal, and it doesn't start until Christmas.
So if you're watching this on replay, use promo Calde
Holiday twenty five and take twenty five percent off anything
at Talk Again Holiday twenty five at checkout. Whatever package
you want from anybody, you want twenty five percent off

(45:10):
and that's good for everything on the site. So check
it out again. That starts Christmas Day and we'll be
available between Christmas and New Year Holiday twenty five. Your
twenty five percent off discount code at checkout Miami and
Cleveland look aheadline Dolphins minus three and forty two and
a half my powering number Miami minus four and a half.

(45:32):
The markets opened anywhere, there were five and a half,
sixes and six and a half's all widely available. Last night.
The markets have said, screw the five and a half,
screw the sixes. It better be six and a half
six and a halfs everywhere right now. Even some juice
at a couple of books on the six and a
half total, largely sitting at forty. So here's a game.

(45:52):
One game. We're seeing the under money come in. And that's,
of course because Cleveland's offense was pretty inept yesterday's ball game.
They could not move the football even against a bad
Bengals defense. And again Cleveland has fought the good fight.
They're a three and twelve team. This is not a
divisional game, you know, it's a one o'clock or four

(46:13):
o'clock local tide game. It's not a you know, and
I'll be playing in the cold, in the dark. I
worry about Cleveland's ability to get off the mat at
this stage. That being said, we talked about Miami. What
happened when they went to Green Bay. We've seen this before,

(46:34):
and when you get burned by a team that said,
oh yeah, yeah, were finally playing the colt and then
they're not. And now, of course Miami's the must win
mediocre team. They've not yet been eliminated. You know, we
look at the AFC standings and right now Miami Indy
both sitting at seven and eight. There are two full

(46:55):
games behind Denver in LA. But they're alive, you know,
until Denver wins or La wins. If they both win,
they're not live anymore. But at kickoff for this game,
I mean, I'll know you know so well. No, this
is one where I would expect the broader line moves.

(47:19):
They could be significant because that Miami's eliminated, all right,
and I don't know they're gonna be laying six and
a half. So and then again for Mamma to be eliminated,
it means that Chargers win, Anna Broncos win both. That
being said, you know, Chargers are laying five and a
half and Denver's only a three point dog, and they

(47:39):
have the better record, and they may be the better
team than Cincinnati, so spot By his favorite since the
But my point is only that there is a chance
that this line could crash between now and Sunday. You know,
Miami's eliminated. I don't think they're gonna sit everybody, so
maybe it maybe the line crashes for no reason. That

(48:00):
being said, this game has line moved potential. Pay attention
to what's going on around you, and you may be
able to get advantage of a good number before the
markets react.

Speaker 1 (48:10):
We got Monday night football here four seventeen guys. December thirtieth,
it is the Detroit Lions San Francisco forty nine ers
Monday Night Football here Teddy minus three and a half.
At most shops there is three with juice, that being
the Detroit Lions as.

Speaker 3 (48:26):
The road favorite. Fifty one.

Speaker 1 (48:27):
Fifty one and a half being the total Lions at
Niners Monday Night Football.

Speaker 2 (48:33):
Look aheadline here Detroit minus two and a half. Total
fifty one and a half. My powering numbers Detroit minus seven. Okay,
so the markets are three and a half. There is
even a three out there right now, total fifty one
and a half. So totally hasn't moved, But there's a
clear disconnect, and I think it's on both teams. My

(48:57):
powering number for San Francisco lower than the markets, my
power Troit higher in the market. Yes, Detroit has had
a bunch of defensive injuries. Okay, you know, show me
on the field. With the exception of the one game
against elite Buffalo, how those defensive injuries made the lines
a much bigger, weaker squad that they're facing an elite offense,

(49:19):
we worry about them, but they're facing San Francisco right
Now that's not an elite offense. And the Troy certainly
has the body, that certainly has the mentality and they
cut only haven't any signs of letting down. And oh,
by the way, could have sworn Sant Frank knocked them
out of the playoffs last year that Detroit might Detroit
could they could clinch home field with this w Detroit's coming,

(49:40):
I would think. And San France, I mean, they are
what they are. Okay, you have the you have the
team that made the deep playoff run multiple years in
a row, and this year it ain't happening, and the
efforts not there, and sniping is there, and you know,
I'm I would not be surprised at all. And again
I've seen threes out there in the markets right now

(50:02):
at sharp books. Not with my money, I'll leave it. Yeah,
it's good again. My party known for the game is seven.

Speaker 3 (50:14):
Great stuff.

Speaker 2 (50:15):
Teddy.

Speaker 1 (50:16):
I mean, we were talking to are we gonna have
enough this late and this Teddy, But we can't talk
about that anymore. Man. That was jam packed with great
information and sure enough we're up against the time wise again.
But we do have a couple of questions from last
week's show in the live chat here, Teddy Teddy, you
brought up a couple of times the line could move
due to games beforehand, one being the Bills if they clinch. Also,

(50:38):
you just talked about there the Dolphins if they're eliminated
in the possible line move.

Speaker 3 (50:45):
My question is that's kind of a tough handicap. You know,
what is that line move?

Speaker 1 (50:49):
It's not like home field advantage worth one and a
half or a quarterback is worth this.

Speaker 3 (50:53):
That's a very difficult one to actually put a number on.
How do you handle those situations?

Speaker 2 (50:59):
That's a great question, Drew, and listen. We appreciate all
the likes, We appreciate all the comments. I'll get into
the I can't promise I'm gonna do it five times
this week, but I'll get into the comments section and
try to reply to every comment I can over the
course of the next twenty four hours, for sure. So
we appreciate you guys very very much. And of course,

(51:20):
if you haven't already subscribed to the way You're talking
YouTube channel, I don't even know what the number is,
like one hundred and eighty thousand, who knows. We're trying
to get two hundred thousand by the end of the year.
I don't know if we've gotten there or not, but
if you haven't subscribed, do it when you talk about
how much it affects the points, But it starts with this,
all right. If a team gets eliminated and then oh,

(51:44):
this guy's not gonna play, and that guy is not
going to play, and that guy's not gonna play, you
get a sense them in the mentality of that team
that's no longer postseason eligible, and that is certainly something
that you want to respond to. But how do you
quantify it? Answers you don't, and that's where the nuance
comes in. And that's where in some cases, the recreational

(52:07):
better has the edge over the mathematically inclined better. Who
needs to quantify this stuff? All right, it's exactly worth
It's got to be worth the three and a half points.
You know, in my mind, the non quantifiers are sometimes
better assessed. To read the tea leaves in these type
of scenarios. So I'm very much interested in coaches quotes.

(52:29):
I'm very much interested who's gonna sit. But let's just
take Miami Cleveland. Let's say Miami gets eliminated, all right,
before kickoff, but all that. Often starters are gonna play.
You're not going to see a big line move. You're
not going to see the markets go nuts necessarily, And
what you'll oftentimes see is, you know, buying the rumor
selling the news. When you talk about, you know, how

(52:51):
to beat the stock market, you'll oftentimes see the market's coming.
Oh shit, look someone's bet in Cleveland because Miami has
just been eliminateed bang. The markets overreact and you see
a one and a half, You're like, wow, that was
six and a half. Now it's one and a half.
That's cheap, And it comes back the other way because
the market's overreacted to it and there is no way
to quantify exactly how much a team being eliminated is worth.

(53:14):
So that nuance, that inability to quantify it actually can
offer betters some options to some potential But that I'd mean, honestly,
we could probably do a whole show on that. Drew,
I feel like I just touched on the on the
tip of it, But conceptually that's that's that's how I
would approach it.

Speaker 3 (53:34):
I like it.

Speaker 1 (53:35):
Teddy, Yeah, guys, we got some In past shows. We
used to incorporate the college football Playoff when it got
to four teams as part of the NFL Opening Line Report,
I mean, we got eight teams left here, Teddy. Some
guys asking, of course this past week in the college
football playoff, it was all favorite city at home this

(53:55):
upcoming week now, granted, will still have a Monday show
next week, but I guess open line reports style. Penn
State Boise State, we're seeing ten and a half eleven,
that's Penn State is the road favorite. We got Texas
Arizona State minus fourteen. That's the Longhorns as the favorite.
Ohio State Oregon. It is Ohio State, the Buckeyes minus
two in the hook against Oregon in the Rose.

Speaker 3 (54:18):
Bowl in Notre Dame in Georgia. Looks like Georgia.

Speaker 1 (54:21):
Minus two or minus one and a half, and that
one being in Caesar Superdome in New Orleans. Those are
the four games here, so no weather aspect likely in
these games, three of them being dome games.

Speaker 3 (54:33):
Did you want to throw out anything quickly?

Speaker 1 (54:35):
Getting to round two here, New Year's Eve, New Year's
Day with the college football Playoff, Teddy, Sure, so.

Speaker 2 (54:42):
I'm absolutely happy to talk about it. Although it's not
anything I've done a lickworth of work on yet. All right,
so everything I'm going is just gut reaction and all
of that, because these are games that aren't gonna be
played till next week, and in that time of year
where there's a lot going on when it comes to
four sports and a lot, you know, there's twenty games
agreeen now in those games in college football, each one

(55:04):
of which has to be examined individually to figure out
who's playing, who's not playing, who's interested, who's not interested.
So I haven't, like I said, I haven't done a
liqu of work on any of the four playoff games yet.
That said, we can talk about where the early money
has come, and it's clear early money for Penn State
over Boisey, the wise guys like the Niitney Lions. Nobody
trust the Broncos and they step up in class ball game.

(55:27):
Penn State certainly took care of business against SMU. SMU
took care of business against themselves. You know, that was
smuffing up as much as anything Penn State did in
that cow. Penn State took advantage, So I'll give them
credit for that. But we are seeing Nidney Lions love

(55:49):
in the markets early for that ball game, Texas, Arizona State.
Four teams across the board. For Texas, there were some
thirteen and a halfs at the open sweat and half
percent big ticket on Texas. I don't know if I've
ever lost more sweat in any given game my entire
life than that Texas. And then they got there and

(56:11):
all of a sudden done, which I desperately needed. It
was not a good weekend, unfortunately for the clients, but
Texas got there with the big play. And I'm not
surprised again at Arizona State and Boise when we saw
the pretenders go home as badly as they did. You know,
all the pretenders went home this weekend, and the markets
are expecting the same thing. And Arizona State and Boise,
out of this group, one would consider them to be

(56:33):
the two pretenders still standing. They got the bye week,
so the market's not in support of those two teams.
We've seen Ohio State money over Oregon rematching the game
played earlier this season. I remember the game well. I
was in action on the Buckeyes in that game. They
were probably the better team. They did not execute well
down the stretch and they kept on screwing up in
the red zone, and Oregon ended up winning that game.

(56:55):
I think it was by a single point. It was
tight at the end. I know that. But or Ohio
State has taken the early money there. We haven't seen
a three yet. A couple of ly the indicated books
are two and a half with juice right now. It
says it's you know, they're one or two bets away
from more three. If against the three, I'll bounce back
to two and a half, there'll be Oregon money at three.

(57:16):
So I'm anticipating this line holding in the two and
a half range. And Notre Dame opened as favorites as
some books against Georgia. It was pick them at other books.
And we've seen the early money come for Georgia in
that ball game pretty significantly again from I pick them
in one and a half, not that significantly. That's the

(57:39):
right now.

Speaker 1 (57:40):
Yeah, no, the last money off the opener, sure, sure, okay, yeah,
the last two Notre Dame in Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon.

Speaker 3 (57:51):
I can't wait for those two. On New Year's Day,
Teddy covers bringing the heat here. Teddy, I know you
don't like conceptual questions.

Speaker 1 (57:59):
Always like more getting to the you know what this
show is about NFL opening line report.

Speaker 3 (58:03):
But I can't think of a better person to ask bella.

Speaker 1 (58:06):
Check NFL going to UNC college football, you can be
quick with it. What are your overall thoughts man? Does
he have any success at the college football level?

Speaker 2 (58:19):
Yes? Any success? Yes? I don't see Belichick crashing and burning.
Will Belichick win a national title at North Carolina? I'll
take the under, But I got how do we measure success?
If they go eight and four and go to a
bowl game? Is that a successful season for the Tar
Hills initially? Yeah?

Speaker 1 (58:39):
Do you think in the next five years they make
the college football Playoff?

Speaker 2 (58:44):
Okay, I'm not worried about five years, dude. I don't
want to worry about next year. You know five years.
You can't ask any college football questions five years from now.
I do not think they make the college football playoffs
this coming season. But let's see what the what the
recruiting ports with the transfer ports.

Speaker 1 (59:01):
Teddy covers guys at the underscore cover the bottom line.

Speaker 2 (59:05):
A good hire for North Carolina and Belichick wasn't getting
the job he wanted the and the No Fun league,
So kudos to him for saying college is the way
to go. I'll get back. You know, Belichick could ride
off of the sunset, hang out with his girlfriend on
the beach every day and he's like, Nah, I feel like,
let's go recruit and grind. You know, that's it. Some
guys are wired.

Speaker 1 (59:26):
Yeah, it will be fun to watch entertaining, to say
the least, in the next couple of years here in
college football. Belichick and UNC guys remember the promos. Kick
off the new year with an edge. Purchase a thirty
day all access pass for January and it includes the
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