January 20, 2025 • 42 mins
Opening lines for the AFC & NFC Championship in the NFL Playoffs are up! How have opening spreads and totals been moving since they've been released and where can we take advantage? Join Drew and Teddy for the Opening Line Report as we dive into AFC & NFC Championship odds, picks and predictions before action starts on Sunday!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Oh, every half point matters. Every half point matters, and
that was certainly on display for you know, the Eagles rams,
it was on display for the Bills Ravens totals. It
was on display obviously for the intentional safety at the
end of the game for Chiefs and text and so
lots of points spread drama this past weekend. As you're betting,
(00:24):
remember these lines are tight. Every half point matters, and
you don't know when it's going to come into play,
but it does come into play, and it did obviously
this past weekend.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
It absolutely did. TC. You're right on it, man, I
thought you were going to talk.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
I've heard a lot of people talk about the sides
and close there that total last night in terms of
the Ravens Bills. Man, that was right there on the
half point and unfortunately I was on the wrong side.
So you're right on top of that one as well.
But let's talk about these games.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Let me jump in, yeah, because that might have been
the worst one of the group for the books. All right,
Chiefs Texans. It was an eight all week, eight eight
and a half. It didn't get to nine nine and
a half until I think Saturday, so there wasn't two
way action all week with their Eagles and the Rams
(01:14):
that opened six at six till about what Friday or Saturday,
and then the market moved up to six and a
half and then seven. So again it wasn't a situation
where it bounced back and forth all week. The total
last night for the Bills and the Ravens that bounced
fifty one and a half fifty two, fifty two and
a half, back down to fifty two, back down to
(01:35):
fifty one and a half all week long, back and forth,
fifty one and a half fifty two and a half.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
The books in my.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
I haven't heard it from everyone yet, but that was
not a good result for the house. That one landing
right on fifty two. That was everybody's bad, if not
worse then you know, Philly landed on six was probably
good for the books in a sense they didn't have
to pay out all the six and a halfs and
seven The chief slanting nine wasn't good for anybody from
a bookmaker standpoint. But that Bill's Ravens total landing right
(02:07):
on fifty two after the miss two point conversion at
the end, that certainly was a borderline disaster for bookmakers.
If you lost that total and again drew. I mean
I took a six with the rams and pushed for
the clients. It's a scenario where as a handicapper, you
have to get bets out for your clients in a
(02:29):
timely fashion, and sometimes when that happens, we take the
worst of the number for the clients.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
And it's frustrated.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
That being said, in these scenarios where we know these
lines are.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Quote unquote tight.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
As a better, it's different when I'm posting a play
as a better. Take your time, find the best of
the number. It can make all the difference. Yeah, that
was very well said there.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
TC. We're gonna get into the game.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
Go down in rotation order, order of kickoff as well
as we got Sunday, January twenty six for the right
to play in the Super Bowl. We're talking the NFC
Championship Game and then the AFC Championship game back to
back here three and a half hours difference of kickoff time.
So we're going to talk the first one here one
two NFC Championship game, all NFC East Division Championship game
(03:25):
with the Washington Commanders in Philadelphia Eagles. We are seeing
the Eagles minus five in a hook here Teddy forty
eight being the total, there is a forty.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Seven and a hook popping up.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
I'll throw it over to you Commanders and Eagles from Philadelphia.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
So with the opening line report, I like to give
you guys my powering number. I like to give you
guys look ahead lines bat able lines of these games
from last week, so we can see how much the
results affected this past the results from Sunday affected this
particular point spread. We'll talk about where the numbers opened
last night and where they've moved this morning. And the
good news is I've got the look ahead lines this
(04:02):
week we didn't have last week. I've got some from
the global books and some from here in Las Vegas.
So I have actually two sets of lookheadlines, although they're
pretty similar. So let's start with Washington Philly. My powering
number for the game is Philadelphia minus five and a half.
The look ahead lines one book opened six last night.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
Sorry.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
One book had a six as a lookheadline. Another book
had a five and a half as a look ahead line.
Total lookhead lines. One book had a forty seven, another
book had a forty eight and a half opened last night,
clearly Philly five and forty eight, So we've seen a
little bit of Eagles money. The fives are mostly gone.
(04:44):
There's still a couple out there, but not many. Five
and a half the prevailing number forty eight in the
prevailing total, we haven't seen a whole lot of movement
on that. So a little bit of Eagles money, nothing
doing on the total when it comes to the earliest
betting action for Washington Philly, and of course when you're
talking about weather reports a week out, because let's be honest,
(05:06):
weather significantly affected both the gameplay and potentially the results
in three of the four games this past weekend, all right,
you know, don't know it didn't was the one that
was indoors for Detroit, and they probably wish they had
some weather or something in that ball game because it
wasn't a fun night four Allions fans. But certainly the
(05:27):
weather as big a factor as any when it comes
to these postseason matchups. Steven January in Philadelphia in Kansas City,
and of course, the seventh day weather forecast out is
you know, four days, five days, you get a better,
much better a read than seven days.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
So I haven't even looked at weather issues just yet.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
When we talk about the Eagles, so well, let's let
me talk about the series real quick. These two teams
obviously played twice in the regular season. Philly won the
first game twenty six to eighteen. The Command won the
rematch in December thirty six thirty three. That game comes
with two asterisks. One, Jalen Hurts exited with a concussion
in the first quarter.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
Two.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Washington turned the ball over five times in that game
and still won straight up as an underdog. So when
your team turns them all over five, you know, look
for the team to turn the ball over five times.
This past weekend, they didn't exactually have a whole lot
of success, but it was ended up being a plus
three turnover margin because the Eagles turned it over twice.
(06:33):
That being said, when you're the beneficiary of five turnovers
and you lose the game outright, that says something. Now
we're gonna have to see how healthy Hurts is. Hurts
looked like he heard his knee yesterday after a sack
in the third quarter, and he said he expects to play. Quote,
it was a tough game, a challenging game. I was
able to finish the game. We'll see how the week goes.
(06:55):
That being said, after that sack, after that injury, Philadelphia's
offense was hand off, handoff, handoff. By and large, of course,
the handoffs worked. Sequon Barkley had a huge game, and
as we've seen, Leshawn McCoy taught me this lesson in Philadelphia.
When there's snow on the field, the defense gets tired.
The running backs can have huge games. And obviously Sakuon
(07:17):
with a pair of huge touchdown runs yesterday passed a
franchise record for most rushing yards in a playoff game.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
Here's one for you, Drew.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
That was set by Steve Van Buren in nineteen forty nine,
and it also came against the Rams. Barkley's quote that
atmosphere was crazy, it was insane. I got a smile
on my face thinking about it. This is what you
dream about. This is why I came to Philly. I
want to be part of games like this. I'm just
happy to be a part of it.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
Now, I mean Philly finished the game with the seventy
five net pass their say, sixty five net passing yards.
They had one hundred and twenty eight total and they
had sixty three sackyards. They were out yarded for the
game four h two to three fifty. They were out
first down eighteen to sixteen. Jalen her It's was sacked
seven times, Jake Elliott missed a pair of extra points,
and of course, with the two missed extra points from
(08:06):
Dike Elliott and the hurt safety, that was four cheap
points for LA made a big difference in the points
bread But the second half played in a blizzard, all right.
That being said, Rams found a way to throw the
football in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
The Eagles didn't so Philly sixteen to three.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
They had a one point lost to Atlanta week two,
They had seventy point lost to Tampa in Week four,
and then the Commanders lost in Week sixty.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
They've certainly been in these big games before.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
They've certainly not played their best here in the playoffs
and have survived in advanced a pair of times. Sometimes
that works out well for a team that hasn't necessarily
played their a game.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
And either of the first two postseason contests and.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
The Commander's in Rarefied Air obviously back to back big
upset win on the road, first of Bucks and then
on Saturday night against the Lions. Jayson Daniels brilliant again.
Twenty two of thirty one, two ninety nine, two touchdowns,
no picks, nine point six yards per pass attempt. He
had two forty two yards passing at halftime. All right,
(09:16):
that's a rookie record. Of course, one week after becoming
the first rookie quarterback the lead his team in yards
rushing and passing in a playoff win. Now, look, Washington
was plus five and turnovers. They went four or four
in the red zone. They went three of four on
fourth down. Detroit was minus five in turnovers and they
were stopped three times in the red zone.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
Now this is Washington.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
Defense and only four seventeen turnovers for the entirety of
the regular season.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
They have now six and two postseason games.
Speaker 1 (09:45):
Let's talk about other rookie quarterbacks in the history of
rookie qbs. Other rookie qbs to win two playoff games.
You have Mark Sanchez in two thousand and nine. You
have Joe Flacco in two thousand and eight. You have
brock Perty in twenty twenty two. They all lost in
the conference championship. The only other two rookies that started
these games Sean King for Tampa and Big Ben for
(10:06):
Pittsburgh they lost too. In fact, I went back and
watched the catch. It was one of those catches I
remembered to him I had, I'm like Ricky prol and
that catch against going run from Kurt Warner to beat
Tampa and the Sean King game. What a catch if
you ever go go back and look at it on
YouTube to send the Rams to the super Bowl the
second time with Warner. But Tampa scored six points in
(10:29):
that game with Sean King qv and again the five
point margin of defeat for Tampa the lowest of any
of those rookie quarterback Sanchez, Flacco, Purdy, King and Big
Ben after having reached the conference championship game as a rookie.
You know, Washington, the box scores turned around all these games. Again,
(10:52):
the team that won the box score lost the game.
Washington went to me because turnovers were the big difference.
Washington allowed seven point seven yards per play that were
game at more than a yard per play. They were
out total yard forty one to five, twenty one to
forty one. You know Daniels quote, it's a surreal moment.
I always believe we could achieve more than people give
(11:12):
us credit. For and obviously he didn't turn the ball over.
I mean, you know, Dan Quinny, he's a different poise, He's.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
A rare competitor. Terry McLaurin.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
I mean, you talk about plays in the game that
don't necessarily get remembered at the end, quite the same
way the Lions had withstood the commander's initial punch. They'd
marched down the field, they took a touchdown or up
fourteen to ten, and it felt like De Troy was
kind of taken over the game.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
A little bit.
Speaker 1 (11:40):
And then Terry McLaurin with a catch and run fifty
eight yard touchdown, and then the pick six right after.
I thought that McLaurin catch and run was as big
as any play in the game. Quote mclaurin's quote, nothing
surprises me with him when it comes to Daniels. That
being said, a big injury loss for Washington, don't underestimate it.
(12:04):
The oppositive guard Sam Cosmey was injured late in the ballgame.
He tore his ACL. He's out for the remainder of
the playoffs. Dan Quinn really bummed on Sam. That's a
big loss for us. So I can understand why Philly's
taking the money here, the early money. Philly is a
class in this ball game, and Philly really hasn't brought
their a game, and either of their first two playoff victories,
(12:27):
they probably have a better game in them the moment.
We just saw that being said when we're talking about
rookie QBS Dame Daniels as good as any as that
we we've ever seen, Okay, and we're not surprised by that.
He had a ton of experience in college against high
level competition. He's been well coached from day one, with
a organization that was built for his talent and offensive
(12:49):
game plan that was built. It wasn't like, oh, Kingsbury
got the system and you have to figure into it now.
The quarterback, the coordinator, the coach all in the same
page from the beginning. But it's certainly rarefied air for
a team like Washington. Philly has been had succeeded in
big games like this one before, and of course we
haven't seen Philly play their best game yet this postseason.
(13:12):
We've certainly seen that from Washington.
Speaker 3 (13:15):
Great analysis there, TC And I'll tell you, guys, I
got to give Teddy Covers some props here and some
of you guys VIP watchers for the whole year will
remember this. Teddy, I remember it very vividly. I don't
know if it was week one or a couple episodes
before that, like leading up into the season, you went
over the Washington commanders and said, there is a chance
(13:36):
here offensively, this could work.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
I agreed with you, but it was your assessment.
Speaker 3 (13:40):
Jalen Daniels, Cliff Kingsbury bringing that from college, sure enough
you called that.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
Man.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
Hopefully you made some money over it, because I remember
you saying that on the show.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
I appreciate that.
Speaker 1 (13:52):
Probably not as much money as I should have made,
you know, because now that's one of the things that
you know when you're working. You know, we're in a
situation where you're working multiple sports, so you're not locked
in on one. You know, you say stuff, you believe it,
and then you go through it and sometimes you don't
remember as well as you like to. I felt like
I probably should have made more money with Washington this season, because,
(14:13):
as you talked about, it was something that it's certainly
from where this franchise has been. It's been a pretty
big shocker, all right. But all of a sudden, the
Commander's franchises were something again and we can credit that
Jade Daniels and the coaching staff surrounding.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
Sure, and you brought up weather. I just looked it up.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
ACU weather has Philadelphia at thirty nine degrees, fifteen mile
per hour wins, probability of precipitation at seventeen percent. Not
sure if that would change if that is what the
case is in six days from now, would change anything
for you.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
So when it comes to dealing with snowy conditions, Philadelphia
just showed us they could. If there's precipitation that matters,
thirty nine degrees is nothing. You know, it wouldn't have
affect my handicap at all. Obviously, if the wind blows,
it's not good for downfield passing, which probably favors Philadelphia.
(15:14):
Philadelphia is a team that's shown us they don't need
to throw downfield. You know, they can hand off the
saquon again and again and it works for them. So
I guess my initial is, you know, the wind would
would point me towards Philly. But I mean, look, the
game plan here is stop Saquon and make make Hurts
beach it. And I'm not you know, lots of teams
(15:37):
have tried that game plan so far this season, not
so many have succeeded.
Speaker 3 (15:41):
Absolutely, And I'll segue here, guys to the next game.
And by the way, thanks for everybody watching live right
now on the Wager Talking YouTube Channel'll get a bunch
of people here in the live chat, Jave Cash, Robert
esk Titans, ct Coin in the house as well. Feel
free to fire away any questions guys, and what review
is on the games all is welcome. If you're watching
(16:02):
on replay, fire away any questions in the comments below.
We'll answer them on next week's show. We got the
next game coming up right now, in the AFC Championship Game.
And by the way, the Kansas City weather projection for
Sunday night is twenty one degrees five to twenty miles
per hour with only a two percent probability of precipitation.
(16:25):
So I'll get it in here Teddy and tee it
up for you. We got one O three, one oh
four Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs from Arrowheads Stadium does
look like the Chiefs now minus two at most shops.
There is minus one and a half still out there
as the home favorite forty seven and a hook or
forty eight being the total bills at Chiefs for the
right to play in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Sure, sure, before I want to give a little promo
before we get into this, and it's real simple. Buy
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Speaker 2 (16:56):
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Speaker 1 (16:58):
Nuxtra cost sixty nine bucks four days all access from
the capper of your choice. Visit my page WT dot buzz,
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of course let's talk about five dollars Tuesday as well.
(17:20):
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Speaker 2 (17:26):
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it out tomorrow on final ar Tuesday at wager talk
dot com. When it comes to the bills, and the chiefs.
How about this for synchronicity. My powering number Kansas City
(17:50):
minus one and a half. I have two sets of
look aheads here in Vegas minus one and a half,
off shore Kansas City minus one and a half at
opened last night, Kansas City minus one and a half.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
What are we seeing today?
Speaker 1 (18:02):
We've seen some upward pressure to two and then we
see some buyback down down to one and a half.
It's a split line right now between two and one
and a half. But I've seen books go up to
two and back down to one and a half this morning.
So we are seeing two way action on this side.
So my powering numbers one and a half. The two
lookheads were one and a half. It opened one and
(18:22):
a half, it got beat up to two, but now
it's bet down to one and a half. Yeah, there's
not when we say the lines are tight, the lines
are pretty tight. At this time of the year, the
look had totals. One was forty eight and a half,
one was forty seven and a half. We're seeing right
now forty seven and a half. The prevailing number we
have seen under money, and that certainly could have something
to do with the weather forecast you just talked about
(18:43):
Drew where it's supposed to be cold, and there's a
chance for windy conditions in this one.
Speaker 2 (18:49):
And these are two teams.
Speaker 1 (18:50):
Right now, both of whom are very comfortable shortening the game.
Speaker 2 (18:56):
All right.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
It's not about big plays for the Bills offense, it's
not about plays for the Chiefs offense. It's about grinding
out first downs. And you see both of these teams
with these long five, six, seven eight minute drives. That's
certainly a piece of the equation when it comes to
why we've seen some under money for this one. So
(19:17):
let's talk a little bit about what's happened this past
weekend for these two teams, and again every team that
won lost the box score. Let's talk with Kansas City
the Texas. At eighteen first downs, Casey had fourteen. Casey
had two hundred and twelve total yards in that game,
compared to three thirty six for Houston. Casey only four
point two yards per play. Houston had five point two.
(19:37):
Houston went ten of seventeen on third downs, Houston twenty
nine of one forty nine running the football five point
one yards per carry, Case twenty two to fifty three
point three yards per carry, no turnovers for either team,
so Casey didn't even force a turnover. These are not
We won and covered at minus eight slast minus eight
and a half box score numbers all right, Yet somehow
(19:59):
case He found a way to do it. How about
this drew Houston the first team in playoff history to
outgain their opponent by one hundred or more yards and
without turning the ball over to lose straight up. Previous
teams were forty nine to oh in the playoffs. And again,
(20:22):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (20:23):
They lose straight up. They lost against the spread for
most betters. So what happened?
Speaker 1 (20:29):
Well, Will Anderson got it right. You know, the Texans
were playing against the Chiefs and the refs quote, we
knew what was gonna be us versus the refs going
into this game, and the calls did go for Kansas
City Houston eight for eighty two.
Speaker 2 (20:41):
When it comes to penalties, case he only had twenty
nine penalty yards. But every bit of.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
This issue is at It was the special teams for Houston, obviously,
Kay Fairbairn the field goal missed the ti the game
in the first half. He had the field goal blocked.
That made a huge point spread difference in the second
half of the game. He had the missed extra point,
the sixty three yard kickoff return on the opening play.
The special team's miscused for Houston cost them as much
(21:07):
as arrest did, if not more. That being said, case,
he's gotten the calls and would you expect that to
be different this time around.
Speaker 2 (21:17):
I don't know. People are like, oh, I'm sick of
the Chiefs. I'm sick of the Chiefs. I'm sick of
the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (21:21):
For NFL fans the Chiefs that means seven straight to
AFC championship games.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
There is a little bit of Chiefs fatigue.
Speaker 1 (21:28):
For the casual fans, the ones that the NFL is
trying to attract to watch the conference championship games and
the Super Bowl. The ones who aren't NFL fans would
just tune in a couple of games a year. Well,
they're very interesting in Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, he's
the one who drives the rating, So that's certainly worth noting.
(21:49):
And of course, I mean the under was the right
side in the game between the Chiefs and Texans. The
total was bet down to forty one and a half
and landed thirty seven. Casey had eight sex on siege
A Stroud, But how tough is the AFC man Mahomes,
Burrow Lamar Josh Allen. I still think Herbert's elite CJ.
Stroud isn't gonna get any notice. He was awesome in
the kame Worth noting for Kansas City. Fourth team in
(22:15):
NFL history to follow back to back Super Bowl wins
with a trip to the conference title game. The previous
three that was in nineteen seventy six Pittsburgh Steelers, the
nineteen ninety San Francisco forty nine Ers, the nineteen ninety
four Dallas Cowboys. That are all won back to back
Super Bowls and reached the conference Championship game. All three
(22:36):
of those teams lost, But it's been a long time
since the forty nine Ers meet the Cowboys in ninety four,
very different era, and now Mahomes after the game, it's
been a special run. I still remember moments from the
World Series my dad played when I was five years old.
These are the moments that will cherish my entire life.
And of course Mahomes is sixteen to three in the
postseason and he's basically a pickup game. He's already tied
(22:57):
Joe Montana for the second most wins by a starting
courter back in the NFL history. Only Tom Brady has
more and Kenson able to survive in advance. They got
nothing from DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Juju Smith, Schuster, no
catches between only four targets. You know, Mahomes under pressure
throughout the game. He found Travis Kelcey enough. And of course,
(23:18):
seven consecutive now appearances in a game of this magnitude
of conference champons game they've hosted all but the one
last year, so Casey very familiar in the spots, and
of course last year that became the first team to
win back to back Super Bowls in twenty years. Obviously,
the task here even tougher being that they're being asked
(23:40):
to do something that has never been done in the
history of the league. So when you look at the
Buffalo Bill's side of the equation and again twenty seven
to twenty five, you know, we talked about the Casey
Houston line landing in the middle of the Philly Rams
line landing on the side of the Buffalo Baltimore total
landing in the middle, and of course it was a teaser.
(24:00):
I warned lest I'm like, there's gonna be one teaser
killer out there, and there almost always is in Detroit
and Detroit under obviously were not casting the other seven
teaser sides all cash this weekend.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
So how did.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Buffalo win yesterday? I'm not convinced they They weren't a
better team necessarily. Baltimore went seven to ten on third downs,
one on one on fourth Baltimore gained four hundred and
sixteen yards, Buffalo only two seventy three yards per play.
Baltimore seven point three yards per play, Buffalo four point six.
Those are not we won the game numbers, But the
(24:33):
Bills had only one penalty and no turnovers. The Ravens
with five penalties several of them key and three turnovers
plus three turners.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
You're gonna win and almost didn't, you know. Obviously, a
dropped two.
Speaker 1 (24:46):
Point conversion had a pretty big impact on the finale
of that ballgame on what would happened had to con
to extra time. The Bills finished the regular season with
the league best plus twenty four turnover deferential plus three
again yesterday. It's been twenty one straight games for the Bills,
(25:06):
including the playoffs, without losing a turnover battle, not one
time in the last twenty one games, as Josh Allen
and company turned the ball over more than their opponents did.
That is the tide to the longest streak in NFL history.
And on the last time the team did it drew
the Rams did it in nineteen fifty two and nineteen
fifty three.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
Oh yeah, that's it.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
Yeah, I figured you're gonna guess that one, and I
mean Mark Andrews fumbled as a Baltimore was driving in
to take the lead in the fourth quarter on the road.
The defense responded hold the Buffalo to a field goal.
Lamar responded, drives Baltimore down on the field into the
end zone, and then Andrews dropped the two point conversion.
We should have been money, you either, the quote ask
(25:50):
of the game. Buffalo's pretty happy, Josh Allen.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
How about that Bill's defense?
Speaker 1 (25:56):
All year, this team, we heard we got no talent,
we're too small, we can't stop the run. We're not
going to at the compete. We just put our head
down and worked hard. I'm so proud of our defense.
I'm so proud of our offensive special teams. What a
complete win. We're excited. There's a lot of pride in
that locker room. We didn't listen to the outside noise.
Everyone was saying this and that about us. Our guys
continue to work hard. We are internally driven, of course,
(26:17):
you know Patrick Mahomes Josh Allen four and four in
the eight regular or the eight head to head meetings
between these two teams, Mahomes three and oho in the playoffs.
Of course, these teams met back in Week eleven, the
Bills thirty to twenty one. It was Kansas City's only
lost this season where they played their starters. Last year,
(26:38):
they played the Divisional round twenty seven to twenty four
Kansas City on the road.
Speaker 2 (26:44):
Not many teams have been able to be Kansas City
twice in the season in the modern era.
Speaker 1 (26:48):
It's happened twice so far in recent years, the twenty
eighteen Patriots, the twenty twenty one Bengals, So it's not
common for Kansas City to lose twice to a single opponent.
It is worth noting for Buffalo all right ten and
zero at home, perfect season on their home field. But
the injury report for Buffalo certainly Taylor Rapp he heard
(27:12):
his hip in the second quarter, did not return yesterday.
He is an impact player. Terren Johnson, the cornerback, returned
to the game lay he shuffered. I believe it was
a shoulder stinger, but his status is worth monitoring. If
Rap or Johnson doesn't play advantage Kansas City Josh Allen's quote,
we know what they are, but the parendial of what
(27:33):
you want to be in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
You've got to beat them to get past them.
Speaker 1 (27:36):
So you know, we're gonna enjoy this one tonight and
then focus on the next one, which is exactly what
he's supposed to say. These two teams have played some classics.
No surprise here if we see another one on Sunday
night at Arrowhead.
Speaker 3 (27:51):
Great analysis there, Teddy, And it leads me into the
first question here, guys, if you're watching live fire away,
in the live chat, you bring up the Bills injuries
and I'm going back here. They have not had a
bye week since November. This will be their ninth straight game.
Of course, they didn't have a bye in the playoffs
like Kansas City did with the number one seed. Is
that factoring into the handicap as well in terms of rest,
(28:13):
maybe kind of helping the Chiefs here and being at home.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
Sure, I mean Kansas City and the clients that I
cast with the Chiefs this past weekend. I forgot I
how I late eight or eight and a half. It
wasn't nine. I didn't put it on game there or
the day before. So at least we got the best
the better of that number. But a big part of
that thought process it wasn't in disrespect of Houston, but
it was that Kansas City is as healthy as they've
(28:38):
been really all year.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
That bye week really helped the Chiefs in.
Speaker 1 (28:43):
Terms of getting them back to health.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
And obviously Buffalo.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
Not in the same circumstance in that regard. Buffalo also
played on Sunday compared to Kansas City on Saturday, So
there are some perhaps little edges here for the Chiefs
in that regards when it comes to freshness and injury statuses.
I don't know if it's enough to move the needle
for me situationalise. I mean, it's it's little little notches
(29:13):
on Kansas City, not big notches on Kansas City. So
if you're making a case for the Chiefs, it's how
you can make it. You know, you can add you're
cann add to that case I don't think it's enough
just a lot.
Speaker 2 (29:24):
Okay, one team played Sunday, one team played Saturday.
Speaker 1 (29:26):
From a condition standpoint, of all the teams, I think
the Eagles might be the most gas because, say, you
know that playing in that snow takes a lot out
of you. But the fact that Casey has extra day
to repair and had the week off last week certainly
boats well for their chances.
Speaker 2 (29:47):
I just don't know that it's a difference maker. Yeah,
that's a.
Speaker 3 (29:51):
Good point here, Teddy. I'm just thinking of this off
the top of my head. With what you just said.
You know, the NFL and the playoff schedule structure, it
really helps the number one seeds with that extra day
in the following round. And you bring up Philadelphia maybe
be on the negative of that. And sure enough, Washington,
even though they weren't the number one scene, gained that
extra day by beating Detroit. So it's almost like a
(30:13):
double edged short towards towards helping the Washington side. That's
a great point there. TC Again, all right, I got
to ask another question here.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
Yeah, yeah, but it's not anything that's gonna go Okay,
that's enough to make a bet, you know, it's not
in close to that. But if I'm making a case
for Washington, if I'm making a case for Kansas City,
you can certainly use that as part of the case.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
Absolutely, an extra day of preparation time there. Okay, I
got to bring it up, Deddy, you know, asking this question,
I would laugh at it.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
But this is multiple years now. We just saw it
with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (30:53):
You said, Patrick Mahomes, the NFL obviously wants this to happen.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
I don't want to say corruption, but it is.
Speaker 3 (31:01):
It's more money in their pocket if they get the
Chiefs to go to the super Bowl. Taylor Swift, the
whole bit. I think there's legs here. Am I crazy
for thinking that? And if so or if not, and
you somewhat agree, does that make a bet on the
Kansas City Chiefs?
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Maybe even a better bet with all that on your side.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
So I do not believe that NFL games are fixed,
all right, You're not gonna get me into the there's
a conspiracy here. The theory here that oh the league
want you know, if Buffalo out plays Kansas City, Buffalo
is going to go to the super Bowl, and then
Josh Allen to start getting plenty of hype, and it's
not like Josh Allen's is the guy that the league
doesn't want to hype, or Buffalo is a team that
wouldn't attract attention. That said, for the casual fan, the
(31:50):
Kansas City Chiefs are the modern Dallas Cowboys or the
modern New England Patriots or you know, they're the team
that people tune in to watch. So the league does
get higher viewership on Chiefs games, and they do on
other games. And that's not guys like you and I
are anyone that's watching this show because we're all football fans,
we're all football betters, and we pay attention to this
(32:11):
every week when Patrick Mahomes is in play. The guys
that watch one game a year or two games a
year and oh really, all right, yeah, maybe I'll click.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
It on, you know.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
So, and that's how you get the huge viewership numbers.
Is the casual fans, not the serious fans. So it's
in the league's financial interest to have a guy like
Patrick mboum survive in advance as long as possible. That
being said, for a game like this, it's like Houston's
got no we know CJ. Stroud, the general public of
the Texans. Who are the Texans? You know, I never
(32:43):
heard of that team. I mean literally, that's not the
case for the Buffalo build. I expect this game to
be rapped on the up and up. I don't expect
to see Kansas City be the beneficiary of every call
like they were last week.
Speaker 3 (32:55):
Okay, we also have some questions here in the live
chat Teddy one of them about second half. Yeah, okay,
here we go from coin question, will these Kansas City
second half unders in the playoffs continue to be a thing.
Speaker 2 (33:13):
So it feels like that played like the Kansas City under.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
Which was good last year, has been obviously good in
the first game this year. It's not a trend I'm
looking to stay in front of. But that has everything
to do with gameplay and how the game plays out.
The Chiefs are behind, They're gonna have to throw the football,
and they got weapons downfield to do it. Buffalo's I
don't think that first game against the Bills went under
(33:40):
in the second half.
Speaker 2 (33:41):
I'm not sure. I don't remember offhand, but I don't
think it did.
Speaker 1 (33:45):
But it's it feels to me like that bet is
something that I'm not gonna make blindly if the first
half plays out that Kansas City's in control, They're relying
on the defense the second half and running the football.
Speaker 2 (34:02):
That's what they do.
Speaker 1 (34:03):
You know, they're very comfortable in that methodology. So I
think if the Chiefs are ahead, it probably bodes well
for owners. But it's not like Buffalo is going to
be marsh Buffalo's in a scenario where they have a
completely different game plan than Kansas City.
Speaker 2 (34:18):
They want to push pace.
Speaker 1 (34:20):
No. I mean these shoot teams both have that grinded
out mentality of comfortable, let's take what the defense gives us.
The Bills don't have a nine hundred yard receiver this year,
not one receiver. It's got to nine er years. That's
not a team that's loaded with big playmakers. So I
would think both of these teams the goal is let's
(34:41):
think and dunk, let's get grind out first downs, and
that could well change after halftime if one team falls behind.
So I'd be more inclined to look at the second
half under if you see a tight game at halftime,
then you can see one team in control.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
And that's just the first thoughts.
Speaker 3 (35:04):
Makes sense, Teddy, Teddy, what about any kind of look
ahead lines for the super Bowl between any of these teams.
Does any of that interest you for certain matchups and
the Super Bowl that you think might be advantageous for
betters to get in front of until waiting until the
actual Super Bowl matchup, keeping in mind, if it isn't
the matchup, you get your money back.
Speaker 2 (35:28):
Let me think about it, because I really, I mean,
I haven't. I haven't thought about it. I haven't.
Speaker 1 (35:32):
I know we're going to see numbers, but but they're
not out Monday morning, so we'll see look at lines
and I'll write them all down and we'll have what
the what the markets thought prior for next week's edition
of Opening Line Report. Thank you so much for watching
each and every week. We really appreciate you. I mean
the feedback I get it blows me away every week.
(35:52):
You guys are so kind in the chat and the comments.
I really appreciate it. You don't have to be kind.
You can rip me. It's okay, I can handle it.
But we appreciate the likes, appreciate the comments. We appreciate
the followers very very much. But now I lost track
of what I was saying.
Speaker 2 (36:07):
Andrew, what was that? What the hell was I was
talking about when you ask me like the future super
Bowl odds.
Speaker 1 (36:12):
For Yeah, yeah, so we'll see sont.
Speaker 2 (36:17):
Let's think it out loud, all right.
Speaker 1 (36:19):
So if Kansas City faces let's just go through the
potential mana Kansas City and Philly, the two favorites come out.
There's not a scenario where I got I'm just saying
that the teams themselves, the teams that were expected to
be there are there. Kansas City is not a team
that gets a lot of love in the markets right now.
(36:41):
Philadelphia's and revenge for the super Bowl lost a couple
of years ago, but it's Mahomes and company. I don't
see that a scenario where the Chiefs Eagles is likely
to create some one way action. If it's Washington Kansas City, again,
Washington gonna have a big betting bandwagon. Kansas City is
going to be the wise guy choice. That's not a
scenario where where I think we're likely that that might
(37:03):
be a sharp square divide game, but it's not going
to be a game where there's a clear there's clear
value one where or the other.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
If it's Buffalo Philly.
Speaker 1 (37:16):
That's an interesting one because maybe the Bills if it's
Buffalo Phill.
Speaker 2 (37:20):
The Bills are going to get some respect for going
into Arrowhead and Kansas City twice, and.
Speaker 1 (37:24):
That might be the one that you might want to attack,
be like this week if you want Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (37:32):
Just as we're talking about again, I haven't seen any numbers.
I don't know where they were in align it.
Speaker 1 (37:36):
But if Buffalo beats KC and they play Philly, even
if Buffalo plays Washington, I think the Bills are likely
to get a fair bit of support, So that may
be the one to target the Buffalo side of the equation.
But again, I'm just talking this out. I haven't thought
about it ahead of time. I could be missing something completely.
That's why I don't make bets right when I talk
it out, you know, you get give it a minute,
(37:57):
think about it, let it play through.
Speaker 2 (38:00):
First.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
At first glance, I think the Bills will likely to
get more betting attention off of wins and covers this
weekend than Kansas City.
Speaker 2 (38:09):
Let's just see what.
Speaker 1 (38:10):
That Philly Buffalo look ahead line would be because Eagles will.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
Be favored there. Yeah, I'm actually surprised.
Speaker 3 (38:17):
I just pulled up a couple of sports book I
might not be finding it but I'm not a novice
in terms of clicking around sports books, and I can't
find the the future line as we're doing the show,
Rick J.
Speaker 2 (38:29):
Just do it in the Monday morning, dude.
Speaker 1 (38:33):
Yeah, well we'll see that tomorrow, we'll see that Wednesday,
we'll see that Thursday. Well, it's it's too early on
Monday morning. They're not there. They're not the focused on
that just yet. It'll it'll come.
Speaker 3 (38:44):
Rick Jay in the house saying the total if it's
KC and Washington towards I'm guessing, yeah, the over he
would say, jump on sooner than later.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
I could see that.
Speaker 3 (38:56):
But at the same time, to Teddy's point, you know,
it's kind of longer dry for the Chiefs. But Teddy, actually,
you know you kind of qualified that with your just
thinking about I thought that was gold asking you that question.
You're talking it through, So thanks man, as that was
just off the hip, if you will, guys, but Teddy,
I guess quickly, Ohio State Notre Dame tonight for anybody watching,
(39:17):
minus nine, minus eight and a half. That is the buck, guys,
forty five forty five and a hook being the total Atlanta,
Georgia for the National championship anything quickly, buck guys in
Irish tonight.
Speaker 1 (39:29):
Yeah, you can find eight on Ohio State at the
Westgate here in Las Vegas. If you're here in Las Vegas,
I'm in play on the side. You can get my
play at w dot buzz backslash TC. I've got out
the under as a free play I talked about earlier
today on wader Talk today. And again, what was the
last year seventeen fourteen, last year twenty one ten, the
year before. Certainly we're talking about what the top two
(39:53):
total defense teams in the country, the top two scoring
defensive teams in the country. My case on the side,
I think is stronger because I'm not expecting I'm not
expecting a boatload of offense necessarily from either squad in
this game. But I think one team particularly gonna have
a real hard time scoring. So I mean under on
(40:18):
Monday Night football tonight. And again, you know we've seen
the toll sit in forty five forty five and a half.
Not a lot of movement there on the total, A
little bit of Buckeye's money here as we speak on
Monday morning. But this game's getting two way action. Really
a side and total.
Speaker 3 (40:37):
Love it, Teddy, and guys, that's going to do it
for the NFL Opening Line report here of course talking
about the super Bowl coming up next as Opening Line
reports super Bowl addition. So come back and join us
right here on the way to talking YouTube channel. But Teddy,
I'll throw it back over to you man. Anything else
you want to throw out before we shut this down.
Speaker 1 (40:56):
Yeah, I just want to get a little bit of
promo if you guys are interested in getting on with
any package, get three day all access and get a
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Tuesday at midnight. So get four full days of expert
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for me or any of the cappers at wager talk
(41:18):
dot com. In edition, be sure to check back tomorrow
five dollars Tuesday best bets from all participating Andy cappers
at Sports Memo and water Talk for just five bucks
and you can get as many as you want of those.
So we again, we appreciate the like so much the
follows the comments. Thank you for being tarted of the
way for being part of the Wager Talk family, and
(41:39):
that's the luck this weekend.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
Cheers well said Eddie.
Speaker 3 (41:43):
Guys comment below any questions. Teddy and myself will be
in there chiming in throughout the week. Champion Chip Week
coming up this Sunday. We got NFL Opening Line reports,
super Bowl Edition. Come back and join us next Monday
for Teddy covers Andrew Martin. Thanks for tuning in. Smash
that like button. Comment below, cash those tickets. Enjoy the
rest your Monday
Oh, every half point matters. Every half point matters, and
that was certainly on display for you know, the Eagles rams,
it was on display for the Bills Ravens totals. It
was on display obviously for the intentional safety at the
end of the game for Chiefs and text and so
lots of points spread drama this past weekend. As you're betting,
(00:24):
remember these lines are tight. Every half point matters, and
you don't know when it's going to come into play,
but it does come into play, and it did obviously
this past weekend.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
It absolutely did. TC. You're right on it, man, I
thought you were going to talk.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
I've heard a lot of people talk about the sides
and close there that total last night in terms of
the Ravens Bills. Man, that was right there on the
half point and unfortunately I was on the wrong side.
So you're right on top of that one as well.
But let's talk about these games.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Let me jump in, yeah, because that might have been
the worst one of the group for the books. All right,
Chiefs Texans. It was an eight all week, eight eight
and a half. It didn't get to nine nine and
a half until I think Saturday, so there wasn't two
way action all week with their Eagles and the Rams
(01:14):
that opened six at six till about what Friday or Saturday,
and then the market moved up to six and a
half and then seven. So again it wasn't a situation
where it bounced back and forth all week. The total
last night for the Bills and the Ravens that bounced
fifty one and a half fifty two, fifty two and
a half, back down to fifty two, back down to
(01:35):
fifty one and a half all week long, back and forth,
fifty one and a half fifty two and a half.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
The books in my.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
I haven't heard it from everyone yet, but that was
not a good result for the house. That one landing
right on fifty two. That was everybody's bad, if not
worse then you know, Philly landed on six was probably
good for the books in a sense they didn't have
to pay out all the six and a halfs and
seven The chief slanting nine wasn't good for anybody from
a bookmaker standpoint. But that Bill's Ravens total landing right
(02:07):
on fifty two after the miss two point conversion at
the end, that certainly was a borderline disaster for bookmakers.
If you lost that total and again drew. I mean
I took a six with the rams and pushed for
the clients. It's a scenario where as a handicapper, you
have to get bets out for your clients in a
(02:29):
timely fashion, and sometimes when that happens, we take the
worst of the number for the clients.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
And it's frustrated.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
That being said, in these scenarios where we know these
lines are.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Quote unquote tight.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
As a better, it's different when I'm posting a play
as a better. Take your time, find the best of
the number. It can make all the difference. Yeah, that
was very well said there.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
TC. We're gonna get into the game.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
Go down in rotation order, order of kickoff as well
as we got Sunday, January twenty six for the right
to play in the Super Bowl. We're talking the NFC
Championship Game and then the AFC Championship game back to
back here three and a half hours difference of kickoff time.
So we're going to talk the first one here one
two NFC Championship game, all NFC East Division Championship game
(03:25):
with the Washington Commanders in Philadelphia Eagles. We are seeing
the Eagles minus five in a hook here Teddy forty
eight being the total, there is a forty.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Seven and a hook popping up.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
I'll throw it over to you Commanders and Eagles from Philadelphia.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
So with the opening line report, I like to give
you guys my powering number. I like to give you
guys look ahead lines bat able lines of these games
from last week, so we can see how much the
results affected this past the results from Sunday affected this
particular point spread. We'll talk about where the numbers opened
last night and where they've moved this morning. And the
good news is I've got the look ahead lines this
(04:02):
week we didn't have last week. I've got some from
the global books and some from here in Las Vegas.
So I have actually two sets of lookheadlines, although they're
pretty similar. So let's start with Washington Philly. My powering
number for the game is Philadelphia minus five and a half.
The look ahead lines one book opened six last night.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
Sorry.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
One book had a six as a lookheadline. Another book
had a five and a half as a look ahead line.
Total lookhead lines. One book had a forty seven, another
book had a forty eight and a half opened last night,
clearly Philly five and forty eight, So we've seen a
little bit of Eagles money. The fives are mostly gone.
(04:44):
There's still a couple out there, but not many. Five
and a half the prevailing number forty eight in the
prevailing total, we haven't seen a whole lot of movement
on that. So a little bit of Eagles money, nothing
doing on the total when it comes to the earliest
betting action for Washington Philly, and of course when you're
talking about weather reports a week out, because let's be honest,
(05:06):
weather significantly affected both the gameplay and potentially the results
in three of the four games this past weekend, all right,
you know, don't know it didn't was the one that
was indoors for Detroit, and they probably wish they had
some weather or something in that ball game because it
wasn't a fun night four Allions fans. But certainly the
(05:27):
weather as big a factor as any when it comes
to these postseason matchups. Steven January in Philadelphia in Kansas City,
and of course, the seventh day weather forecast out is
you know, four days, five days, you get a better,
much better a read than seven days.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
So I haven't even looked at weather issues just yet.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
When we talk about the Eagles, so well, let's let
me talk about the series real quick. These two teams
obviously played twice in the regular season. Philly won the
first game twenty six to eighteen. The Command won the
rematch in December thirty six thirty three. That game comes
with two asterisks. One, Jalen Hurts exited with a concussion
in the first quarter.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
Two.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Washington turned the ball over five times in that game
and still won straight up as an underdog. So when
your team turns them all over five, you know, look
for the team to turn the ball over five times.
This past weekend, they didn't exactually have a whole lot
of success, but it was ended up being a plus
three turnover margin because the Eagles turned it over twice.
(06:33):
That being said, when you're the beneficiary of five turnovers
and you lose the game outright, that says something. Now
we're gonna have to see how healthy Hurts is. Hurts
looked like he heard his knee yesterday after a sack
in the third quarter, and he said he expects to play. Quote,
it was a tough game, a challenging game. I was
able to finish the game. We'll see how the week goes.
(06:55):
That being said, after that sack, after that injury, Philadelphia's
offense was hand off, handoff, handoff. By and large, of course,
the handoffs worked. Sequon Barkley had a huge game, and
as we've seen, Leshawn McCoy taught me this lesson in Philadelphia.
When there's snow on the field, the defense gets tired.
The running backs can have huge games. And obviously Sakuon
(07:17):
with a pair of huge touchdown runs yesterday passed a
franchise record for most rushing yards in a playoff game.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
Here's one for you, Drew.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
That was set by Steve Van Buren in nineteen forty nine,
and it also came against the Rams. Barkley's quote that
atmosphere was crazy, it was insane. I got a smile
on my face thinking about it. This is what you
dream about. This is why I came to Philly. I
want to be part of games like this. I'm just
happy to be a part of it.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
Now, I mean Philly finished the game with the seventy
five net pass their say, sixty five net passing yards.
They had one hundred and twenty eight total and they
had sixty three sackyards. They were out yarded for the
game four h two to three fifty. They were out
first down eighteen to sixteen. Jalen her It's was sacked
seven times, Jake Elliott missed a pair of extra points,
and of course, with the two missed extra points from
(08:06):
Dike Elliott and the hurt safety, that was four cheap
points for LA made a big difference in the points
bread But the second half played in a blizzard, all right.
That being said, Rams found a way to throw the
football in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
The Eagles didn't so Philly sixteen to three.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
They had a one point lost to Atlanta week two,
They had seventy point lost to Tampa in Week four,
and then the Commanders lost in Week sixty.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
They've certainly been in these big games before.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
They've certainly not played their best here in the playoffs
and have survived in advanced a pair of times. Sometimes
that works out well for a team that hasn't necessarily
played their a game.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
And either of the first two postseason contests and.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
The Commander's in Rarefied Air obviously back to back big
upset win on the road, first of Bucks and then
on Saturday night against the Lions. Jayson Daniels brilliant again.
Twenty two of thirty one, two ninety nine, two touchdowns,
no picks, nine point six yards per pass attempt. He
had two forty two yards passing at halftime. All right,
(09:16):
that's a rookie record. Of course, one week after becoming
the first rookie quarterback the lead his team in yards
rushing and passing in a playoff win. Now, look, Washington
was plus five and turnovers. They went four or four
in the red zone. They went three of four on
fourth down. Detroit was minus five in turnovers and they
were stopped three times in the red zone.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
Now this is Washington.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
Defense and only four seventeen turnovers for the entirety of
the regular season.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
They have now six and two postseason games.
Speaker 1 (09:45):
Let's talk about other rookie quarterbacks in the history of
rookie qbs. Other rookie qbs to win two playoff games.
You have Mark Sanchez in two thousand and nine. You
have Joe Flacco in two thousand and eight. You have
brock Perty in twenty twenty two. They all lost in
the conference championship. The only other two rookies that started
these games Sean King for Tampa and Big Ben for
(10:06):
Pittsburgh they lost too. In fact, I went back and
watched the catch. It was one of those catches I
remembered to him I had, I'm like Ricky prol and
that catch against going run from Kurt Warner to beat
Tampa and the Sean King game. What a catch if
you ever go go back and look at it on
YouTube to send the Rams to the super Bowl the
second time with Warner. But Tampa scored six points in
(10:29):
that game with Sean King qv and again the five
point margin of defeat for Tampa the lowest of any
of those rookie quarterback Sanchez, Flacco, Purdy, King and Big
Ben after having reached the conference championship game as a rookie.
You know, Washington, the box scores turned around all these games. Again,
(10:52):
the team that won the box score lost the game.
Washington went to me because turnovers were the big difference.
Washington allowed seven point seven yards per play that were
game at more than a yard per play. They were
out total yard forty one to five, twenty one to
forty one. You know Daniels quote, it's a surreal moment.
I always believe we could achieve more than people give
(11:12):
us credit. For and obviously he didn't turn the ball over.
I mean, you know, Dan Quinny, he's a different poise, He's.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
A rare competitor. Terry McLaurin.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
I mean, you talk about plays in the game that
don't necessarily get remembered at the end, quite the same
way the Lions had withstood the commander's initial punch. They'd
marched down the field, they took a touchdown or up
fourteen to ten, and it felt like De Troy was
kind of taken over the game.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
A little bit.
Speaker 1 (11:40):
And then Terry McLaurin with a catch and run fifty
eight yard touchdown, and then the pick six right after.
I thought that McLaurin catch and run was as big
as any play in the game. Quote mclaurin's quote, nothing
surprises me with him when it comes to Daniels. That
being said, a big injury loss for Washington, don't underestimate it.
(12:04):
The oppositive guard Sam Cosmey was injured late in the ballgame.
He tore his ACL. He's out for the remainder of
the playoffs. Dan Quinn really bummed on Sam. That's a
big loss for us. So I can understand why Philly's
taking the money here, the early money. Philly is a
class in this ball game, and Philly really hasn't brought
their a game, and either of their first two playoff victories,
(12:27):
they probably have a better game in them the moment.
We just saw that being said when we're talking about
rookie QBS Dame Daniels as good as any as that
we we've ever seen, Okay, and we're not surprised by that.
He had a ton of experience in college against high
level competition. He's been well coached from day one, with
a organization that was built for his talent and offensive
(12:49):
game plan that was built. It wasn't like, oh, Kingsbury
got the system and you have to figure into it now.
The quarterback, the coordinator, the coach all in the same
page from the beginning. But it's certainly rarefied air for
a team like Washington. Philly has been had succeeded in
big games like this one before, and of course we
haven't seen Philly play their best game yet this postseason.
(13:12):
We've certainly seen that from Washington.
Speaker 3 (13:15):
Great analysis there, TC And I'll tell you, guys, I
got to give Teddy Covers some props here and some
of you guys VIP watchers for the whole year will
remember this. Teddy, I remember it very vividly. I don't
know if it was week one or a couple episodes
before that, like leading up into the season, you went
over the Washington commanders and said, there is a chance
(13:36):
here offensively, this could work.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
I agreed with you, but it was your assessment.
Speaker 3 (13:40):
Jalen Daniels, Cliff Kingsbury bringing that from college, sure enough
you called that.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
Man.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
Hopefully you made some money over it, because I remember
you saying that on the show.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
I appreciate that.
Speaker 1 (13:52):
Probably not as much money as I should have made,
you know, because now that's one of the things that
you know when you're working. You know, we're in a
situation where you're working multiple sports, so you're not locked
in on one. You know, you say stuff, you believe it,
and then you go through it and sometimes you don't
remember as well as you like to. I felt like
I probably should have made more money with Washington this season, because,
(14:13):
as you talked about, it was something that it's certainly
from where this franchise has been. It's been a pretty
big shocker, all right. But all of a sudden, the
Commander's franchises were something again and we can credit that
Jade Daniels and the coaching staff surrounding.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
Sure, and you brought up weather. I just looked it up.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
ACU weather has Philadelphia at thirty nine degrees, fifteen mile
per hour wins, probability of precipitation at seventeen percent. Not
sure if that would change if that is what the
case is in six days from now, would change anything
for you.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
So when it comes to dealing with snowy conditions, Philadelphia
just showed us they could. If there's precipitation that matters,
thirty nine degrees is nothing. You know, it wouldn't have
affect my handicap at all. Obviously, if the wind blows,
it's not good for downfield passing, which probably favors Philadelphia.
(15:14):
Philadelphia is a team that's shown us they don't need
to throw downfield. You know, they can hand off the
saquon again and again and it works for them. So
I guess my initial is, you know, the wind would
would point me towards Philly. But I mean, look, the
game plan here is stop Saquon and make make Hurts
beach it. And I'm not you know, lots of teams
(15:37):
have tried that game plan so far this season, not
so many have succeeded.
Speaker 3 (15:41):
Absolutely, And I'll segue here, guys to the next game.
And by the way, thanks for everybody watching live right
now on the Wager Talking YouTube Channel'll get a bunch
of people here in the live chat, Jave Cash, Robert
esk Titans, ct Coin in the house as well. Feel
free to fire away any questions guys, and what review
is on the games all is welcome. If you're watching
(16:02):
on replay, fire away any questions in the comments below.
We'll answer them on next week's show. We got the
next game coming up right now, in the AFC Championship Game.
And by the way, the Kansas City weather projection for
Sunday night is twenty one degrees five to twenty miles
per hour with only a two percent probability of precipitation.
(16:25):
So I'll get it in here Teddy and tee it
up for you. We got one O three, one oh
four Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs from Arrowheads Stadium does
look like the Chiefs now minus two at most shops.
There is minus one and a half still out there
as the home favorite forty seven and a hook or
forty eight being the total bills at Chiefs for the
right to play in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Sure, sure, before I want to give a little promo
before we get into this, and it's real simple. Buy
a three day all access pass, get one day free bank,
four days rector picks.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
It's thirty three percent additional value.
Speaker 1 (16:58):
Nuxtra cost sixty nine bucks four days all access from
the capper of your choice. Visit my page WT dot buzz,
backslash TC or any of the pages at watertalk dot
comduding wt dot Buzz backslash DM for Drew Martin's page,
or this is the website waitter talk dot com. And
of course let's talk about five dollars Tuesday as well.
(17:20):
That's tomorrow. Every capper or just about every capper has
a best bet available for.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
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you see five percents up there, just five dollars. Check
it out tomorrow on final ar Tuesday at wager talk
dot com. When it comes to the bills, and the chiefs.
How about this for synchronicity. My powering number Kansas City
(17:50):
minus one and a half. I have two sets of
look aheads here in Vegas minus one and a half,
off shore Kansas City minus one and a half at
opened last night, Kansas City minus one and a half.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
What are we seeing today?
Speaker 1 (18:02):
We've seen some upward pressure to two and then we
see some buyback down down to one and a half.
It's a split line right now between two and one
and a half. But I've seen books go up to
two and back down to one and a half this morning.
So we are seeing two way action on this side.
So my powering numbers one and a half. The two
lookheads were one and a half. It opened one and
(18:22):
a half, it got beat up to two, but now
it's bet down to one and a half. Yeah, there's
not when we say the lines are tight, the lines
are pretty tight. At this time of the year, the
look had totals. One was forty eight and a half,
one was forty seven and a half. We're seeing right
now forty seven and a half. The prevailing number we
have seen under money, and that certainly could have something
to do with the weather forecast you just talked about
(18:43):
Drew where it's supposed to be cold, and there's a
chance for windy conditions in this one.
Speaker 2 (18:49):
And these are two teams.
Speaker 1 (18:50):
Right now, both of whom are very comfortable shortening the game.
Speaker 2 (18:56):
All right.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
It's not about big plays for the Bills offense, it's
not about plays for the Chiefs offense. It's about grinding
out first downs. And you see both of these teams
with these long five, six, seven eight minute drives. That's
certainly a piece of the equation when it comes to
why we've seen some under money for this one. So
(19:17):
let's talk a little bit about what's happened this past
weekend for these two teams, and again every team that
won lost the box score. Let's talk with Kansas City
the Texas. At eighteen first downs, Casey had fourteen. Casey
had two hundred and twelve total yards in that game,
compared to three thirty six for Houston. Casey only four
point two yards per play. Houston had five point two.
(19:37):
Houston went ten of seventeen on third downs, Houston twenty
nine of one forty nine running the football five point
one yards per carry, Case twenty two to fifty three
point three yards per carry, no turnovers for either team,
so Casey didn't even force a turnover. These are not
We won and covered at minus eight slast minus eight
and a half box score numbers all right, Yet somehow
(19:59):
case He found a way to do it. How about
this drew Houston the first team in playoff history to
outgain their opponent by one hundred or more yards and
without turning the ball over to lose straight up. Previous
teams were forty nine to oh in the playoffs. And again,
(20:22):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (20:23):
They lose straight up. They lost against the spread for
most betters. So what happened?
Speaker 1 (20:29):
Well, Will Anderson got it right. You know, the Texans
were playing against the Chiefs and the refs quote, we
knew what was gonna be us versus the refs going
into this game, and the calls did go for Kansas
City Houston eight for eighty two.
Speaker 2 (20:41):
When it comes to penalties, case he only had twenty
nine penalty yards. But every bit of.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
This issue is at It was the special teams for Houston, obviously,
Kay Fairbairn the field goal missed the ti the game
in the first half. He had the field goal blocked.
That made a huge point spread difference in the second
half of the game. He had the missed extra point,
the sixty three yard kickoff return on the opening play.
The special team's miscused for Houston cost them as much
(21:07):
as arrest did, if not more. That being said, case,
he's gotten the calls and would you expect that to
be different this time around.
Speaker 2 (21:17):
I don't know. People are like, oh, I'm sick of
the Chiefs. I'm sick of the Chiefs. I'm sick of
the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (21:21):
For NFL fans the Chiefs that means seven straight to
AFC championship games.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
There is a little bit of Chiefs fatigue.
Speaker 1 (21:28):
For the casual fans, the ones that the NFL is
trying to attract to watch the conference championship games and
the Super Bowl. The ones who aren't NFL fans would
just tune in a couple of games a year. Well,
they're very interesting in Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, he's
the one who drives the rating, So that's certainly worth noting.
(21:49):
And of course, I mean the under was the right
side in the game between the Chiefs and Texans. The
total was bet down to forty one and a half
and landed thirty seven. Casey had eight sex on siege
A Stroud, But how tough is the AFC man Mahomes,
Burrow Lamar Josh Allen. I still think Herbert's elite CJ.
Stroud isn't gonna get any notice. He was awesome in
the kame Worth noting for Kansas City. Fourth team in
(22:15):
NFL history to follow back to back Super Bowl wins
with a trip to the conference title game. The previous
three that was in nineteen seventy six Pittsburgh Steelers, the
nineteen ninety San Francisco forty nine Ers, the nineteen ninety
four Dallas Cowboys. That are all won back to back
Super Bowls and reached the conference Championship game. All three
(22:36):
of those teams lost, But it's been a long time
since the forty nine Ers meet the Cowboys in ninety four,
very different era, and now Mahomes after the game, it's
been a special run. I still remember moments from the
World Series my dad played when I was five years old.
These are the moments that will cherish my entire life.
And of course Mahomes is sixteen to three in the
postseason and he's basically a pickup game. He's already tied
(22:57):
Joe Montana for the second most wins by a starting
courter back in the NFL history. Only Tom Brady has
more and Kenson able to survive in advance. They got
nothing from DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Juju Smith, Schuster, no
catches between only four targets. You know, Mahomes under pressure
throughout the game. He found Travis Kelcey enough. And of course,
(23:18):
seven consecutive now appearances in a game of this magnitude
of conference champons game they've hosted all but the one
last year, so Casey very familiar in the spots, and
of course last year that became the first team to
win back to back Super Bowls in twenty years. Obviously,
the task here even tougher being that they're being asked
(23:40):
to do something that has never been done in the
history of the league. So when you look at the
Buffalo Bill's side of the equation and again twenty seven
to twenty five, you know, we talked about the Casey
Houston line landing in the middle of the Philly Rams
line landing on the side of the Buffalo Baltimore total
landing in the middle, and of course it was a teaser.
(24:00):
I warned lest I'm like, there's gonna be one teaser
killer out there, and there almost always is in Detroit
and Detroit under obviously were not casting the other seven
teaser sides all cash this weekend.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
So how did.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Buffalo win yesterday? I'm not convinced they They weren't a
better team necessarily. Baltimore went seven to ten on third downs,
one on one on fourth Baltimore gained four hundred and
sixteen yards, Buffalo only two seventy three yards per play.
Baltimore seven point three yards per play, Buffalo four point six.
Those are not we won the game numbers, But the
(24:33):
Bills had only one penalty and no turnovers. The Ravens
with five penalties several of them key and three turnovers
plus three turners.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
You're gonna win and almost didn't, you know. Obviously, a
dropped two.
Speaker 1 (24:46):
Point conversion had a pretty big impact on the finale
of that ballgame on what would happened had to con
to extra time. The Bills finished the regular season with
the league best plus twenty four turnover deferential plus three
again yesterday. It's been twenty one straight games for the Bills,
(25:06):
including the playoffs, without losing a turnover battle, not one
time in the last twenty one games, as Josh Allen
and company turned the ball over more than their opponents did.
That is the tide to the longest streak in NFL history.
And on the last time the team did it drew
the Rams did it in nineteen fifty two and nineteen
fifty three.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
Oh yeah, that's it.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
Yeah, I figured you're gonna guess that one, and I
mean Mark Andrews fumbled as a Baltimore was driving in
to take the lead in the fourth quarter on the road.
The defense responded hold the Buffalo to a field goal.
Lamar responded, drives Baltimore down on the field into the
end zone, and then Andrews dropped the two point conversion.
We should have been money, you either, the quote ask
(25:50):
of the game. Buffalo's pretty happy, Josh Allen.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
How about that Bill's defense?
Speaker 1 (25:56):
All year, this team, we heard we got no talent,
we're too small, we can't stop the run. We're not
going to at the compete. We just put our head
down and worked hard. I'm so proud of our defense.
I'm so proud of our offensive special teams. What a
complete win. We're excited. There's a lot of pride in
that locker room. We didn't listen to the outside noise.
Everyone was saying this and that about us. Our guys
continue to work hard. We are internally driven, of course,
(26:17):
you know Patrick Mahomes Josh Allen four and four in
the eight regular or the eight head to head meetings
between these two teams, Mahomes three and oho in the playoffs.
Of course, these teams met back in Week eleven, the
Bills thirty to twenty one. It was Kansas City's only
lost this season where they played their starters. Last year,
(26:38):
they played the Divisional round twenty seven to twenty four
Kansas City on the road.
Speaker 2 (26:44):
Not many teams have been able to be Kansas City
twice in the season in the modern era.
Speaker 1 (26:48):
It's happened twice so far in recent years, the twenty
eighteen Patriots, the twenty twenty one Bengals, So it's not
common for Kansas City to lose twice to a single opponent.
It is worth noting for Buffalo all right ten and
zero at home, perfect season on their home field. But
the injury report for Buffalo certainly Taylor Rapp he heard
(27:12):
his hip in the second quarter, did not return yesterday.
He is an impact player. Terren Johnson, the cornerback, returned
to the game lay he shuffered. I believe it was
a shoulder stinger, but his status is worth monitoring. If
Rap or Johnson doesn't play advantage Kansas City Josh Allen's quote,
we know what they are, but the parendial of what
(27:33):
you want to be in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
You've got to beat them to get past them.
Speaker 1 (27:36):
So you know, we're gonna enjoy this one tonight and
then focus on the next one, which is exactly what
he's supposed to say. These two teams have played some classics.
No surprise here if we see another one on Sunday
night at Arrowhead.
Speaker 3 (27:51):
Great analysis there, Teddy, And it leads me into the
first question here, guys, if you're watching live fire away,
in the live chat, you bring up the Bills injuries
and I'm going back here. They have not had a
bye week since November. This will be their ninth straight game.
Of course, they didn't have a bye in the playoffs
like Kansas City did with the number one seed. Is
that factoring into the handicap as well in terms of rest,
(28:13):
maybe kind of helping the Chiefs here and being at home.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
Sure, I mean Kansas City and the clients that I
cast with the Chiefs this past weekend. I forgot I
how I late eight or eight and a half. It
wasn't nine. I didn't put it on game there or
the day before. So at least we got the best
the better of that number. But a big part of
that thought process it wasn't in disrespect of Houston, but
it was that Kansas City is as healthy as they've
(28:38):
been really all year.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
That bye week really helped the Chiefs in.
Speaker 1 (28:43):
Terms of getting them back to health.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
And obviously Buffalo.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
Not in the same circumstance in that regard. Buffalo also
played on Sunday compared to Kansas City on Saturday, So
there are some perhaps little edges here for the Chiefs
in that regards when it comes to freshness and injury statuses.
I don't know if it's enough to move the needle
for me situationalise. I mean, it's it's little little notches
(29:13):
on Kansas City, not big notches on Kansas City. So
if you're making a case for the Chiefs, it's how
you can make it. You know, you can add you're
cann add to that case I don't think it's enough
just a lot.
Speaker 2 (29:24):
Okay, one team played Sunday, one team played Saturday.
Speaker 1 (29:26):
From a condition standpoint, of all the teams, I think
the Eagles might be the most gas because, say, you
know that playing in that snow takes a lot out
of you. But the fact that Casey has extra day
to repair and had the week off last week certainly
boats well for their chances.
Speaker 2 (29:47):
I just don't know that it's a difference maker. Yeah,
that's a.
Speaker 3 (29:51):
Good point here, Teddy. I'm just thinking of this off
the top of my head. With what you just said.
You know, the NFL and the playoff schedule structure, it
really helps the number one seeds with that extra day
in the following round. And you bring up Philadelphia maybe
be on the negative of that. And sure enough, Washington,
even though they weren't the number one scene, gained that
extra day by beating Detroit. So it's almost like a
(30:13):
double edged short towards towards helping the Washington side. That's
a great point there. TC Again, all right, I got
to ask another question here.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
Yeah, yeah, but it's not anything that's gonna go Okay,
that's enough to make a bet, you know, it's not
in close to that. But if I'm making a case
for Washington, if I'm making a case for Kansas City,
you can certainly use that as part of the case.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (30:38):
Absolutely, an extra day of preparation time there. Okay, I
got to bring it up, Deddy, you know, asking this question,
I would laugh at it.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
But this is multiple years now. We just saw it
with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (30:53):
You said, Patrick Mahomes, the NFL obviously wants this to happen.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
I don't want to say corruption, but it is.
Speaker 3 (31:01):
It's more money in their pocket if they get the
Chiefs to go to the super Bowl. Taylor Swift, the
whole bit. I think there's legs here. Am I crazy
for thinking that? And if so or if not, and
you somewhat agree, does that make a bet on the
Kansas City Chiefs?
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Maybe even a better bet with all that on your side.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
So I do not believe that NFL games are fixed,
all right, You're not gonna get me into the there's
a conspiracy here. The theory here that oh the league
want you know, if Buffalo out plays Kansas City, Buffalo
is going to go to the super Bowl, and then
Josh Allen to start getting plenty of hype, and it's
not like Josh Allen's is the guy that the league
doesn't want to hype, or Buffalo is a team that
wouldn't attract attention. That said, for the casual fan, the
(31:50):
Kansas City Chiefs are the modern Dallas Cowboys or the
modern New England Patriots or you know, they're the team
that people tune in to watch. So the league does
get higher viewership on Chiefs games, and they do on
other games. And that's not guys like you and I
are anyone that's watching this show because we're all football fans,
we're all football betters, and we pay attention to this
(32:11):
every week when Patrick Mahomes is in play. The guys
that watch one game a year or two games a
year and oh really, all right, yeah, maybe I'll click.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
It on, you know.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
So, and that's how you get the huge viewership numbers.
Is the casual fans, not the serious fans. So it's
in the league's financial interest to have a guy like
Patrick mboum survive in advance as long as possible. That
being said, for a game like this, it's like Houston's
got no we know CJ. Stroud, the general public of
the Texans. Who are the Texans? You know, I never
(32:43):
heard of that team. I mean literally, that's not the
case for the Buffalo build. I expect this game to
be rapped on the up and up. I don't expect
to see Kansas City be the beneficiary of every call
like they were last week.
Speaker 3 (32:55):
Okay, we also have some questions here in the live
chat Teddy one of them about second half. Yeah, okay,
here we go from coin question, will these Kansas City
second half unders in the playoffs continue to be a thing.
Speaker 2 (33:13):
So it feels like that played like the Kansas City under.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
Which was good last year, has been obviously good in
the first game this year. It's not a trend I'm
looking to stay in front of. But that has everything
to do with gameplay and how the game plays out.
The Chiefs are behind, They're gonna have to throw the football,
and they got weapons downfield to do it. Buffalo's I
don't think that first game against the Bills went under
(33:40):
in the second half.
Speaker 2 (33:41):
I'm not sure. I don't remember offhand, but I don't
think it did.
Speaker 1 (33:45):
But it's it feels to me like that bet is
something that I'm not gonna make blindly if the first
half plays out that Kansas City's in control, They're relying
on the defense the second half and running the football.
Speaker 2 (34:02):
That's what they do.
Speaker 1 (34:03):
You know, they're very comfortable in that methodology. So I
think if the Chiefs are ahead, it probably bodes well
for owners. But it's not like Buffalo is going to
be marsh Buffalo's in a scenario where they have a
completely different game plan than Kansas City.
Speaker 2 (34:18):
They want to push pace.
Speaker 1 (34:20):
No. I mean these shoot teams both have that grinded
out mentality of comfortable, let's take what the defense gives us.
The Bills don't have a nine hundred yard receiver this year,
not one receiver. It's got to nine er years. That's
not a team that's loaded with big playmakers. So I
would think both of these teams the goal is let's
(34:41):
think and dunk, let's get grind out first downs, and
that could well change after halftime if one team falls behind.
So I'd be more inclined to look at the second
half under if you see a tight game at halftime,
then you can see one team in control.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
And that's just the first thoughts.
Speaker 3 (35:04):
Makes sense, Teddy, Teddy, what about any kind of look
ahead lines for the super Bowl between any of these teams.
Does any of that interest you for certain matchups and
the Super Bowl that you think might be advantageous for
betters to get in front of until waiting until the
actual Super Bowl matchup, keeping in mind, if it isn't
the matchup, you get your money back.
Speaker 2 (35:28):
Let me think about it, because I really, I mean,
I haven't. I haven't thought about it. I haven't.
Speaker 1 (35:32):
I know we're going to see numbers, but but they're
not out Monday morning, so we'll see look at lines
and I'll write them all down and we'll have what
the what the markets thought prior for next week's edition
of Opening Line Report. Thank you so much for watching
each and every week. We really appreciate you. I mean
the feedback I get it blows me away every week.
(35:52):
You guys are so kind in the chat and the comments.
I really appreciate it. You don't have to be kind.
You can rip me. It's okay, I can handle it.
But we appreciate the likes, appreciate the comments. We appreciate
the followers very very much. But now I lost track
of what I was saying.
Speaker 2 (36:07):
Andrew, what was that? What the hell was I was
talking about when you ask me like the future super
Bowl odds.
Speaker 1 (36:12):
For Yeah, yeah, so we'll see sont.
Speaker 2 (36:17):
Let's think it out loud, all right.
Speaker 1 (36:19):
So if Kansas City faces let's just go through the
potential mana Kansas City and Philly, the two favorites come out.
There's not a scenario where I got I'm just saying
that the teams themselves, the teams that were expected to
be there are there. Kansas City is not a team
that gets a lot of love in the markets right now.
(36:41):
Philadelphia's and revenge for the super Bowl lost a couple
of years ago, but it's Mahomes and company. I don't
see that a scenario where the Chiefs Eagles is likely
to create some one way action. If it's Washington Kansas City, again,
Washington gonna have a big betting bandwagon. Kansas City is
going to be the wise guy choice. That's not a
scenario where where I think we're likely that that might
(37:03):
be a sharp square divide game, but it's not going
to be a game where there's a clear there's clear
value one where or the other.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
If it's Buffalo Philly.
Speaker 1 (37:16):
That's an interesting one because maybe the Bills if it's
Buffalo Phill.
Speaker 2 (37:20):
The Bills are going to get some respect for going
into Arrowhead and Kansas City twice, and.
Speaker 1 (37:24):
That might be the one that you might want to attack,
be like this week if you want Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (37:32):
Just as we're talking about again, I haven't seen any numbers.
I don't know where they were in align it.
Speaker 1 (37:36):
But if Buffalo beats KC and they play Philly, even
if Buffalo plays Washington, I think the Bills are likely
to get a fair bit of support, So that may
be the one to target the Buffalo side of the equation.
But again, I'm just talking this out. I haven't thought
about it ahead of time. I could be missing something completely.
That's why I don't make bets right when I talk
it out, you know, you get give it a minute,
(37:57):
think about it, let it play through.
Speaker 2 (38:00):
First.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
At first glance, I think the Bills will likely to
get more betting attention off of wins and covers this
weekend than Kansas City.
Speaker 2 (38:09):
Let's just see what.
Speaker 1 (38:10):
That Philly Buffalo look ahead line would be because Eagles will.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
Be favored there. Yeah, I'm actually surprised.
Speaker 3 (38:17):
I just pulled up a couple of sports book I
might not be finding it but I'm not a novice
in terms of clicking around sports books, and I can't
find the the future line as we're doing the show,
Rick J.
Speaker 2 (38:29):
Just do it in the Monday morning, dude.
Speaker 1 (38:33):
Yeah, well we'll see that tomorrow, we'll see that Wednesday,
we'll see that Thursday. Well, it's it's too early on
Monday morning. They're not there. They're not the focused on
that just yet. It'll it'll come.
Speaker 3 (38:44):
Rick Jay in the house saying the total if it's
KC and Washington towards I'm guessing, yeah, the over he
would say, jump on sooner than later.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
I could see that.
Speaker 3 (38:56):
But at the same time, to Teddy's point, you know,
it's kind of longer dry for the Chiefs. But Teddy, actually,
you know you kind of qualified that with your just
thinking about I thought that was gold asking you that question.
You're talking it through, So thanks man, as that was
just off the hip, if you will, guys, but Teddy,
I guess quickly, Ohio State Notre Dame tonight for anybody watching,
(39:17):
minus nine, minus eight and a half. That is the buck, guys,
forty five forty five and a hook being the total Atlanta,
Georgia for the National championship anything quickly, buck guys in
Irish tonight.
Speaker 1 (39:29):
Yeah, you can find eight on Ohio State at the
Westgate here in Las Vegas. If you're here in Las Vegas,
I'm in play on the side. You can get my
play at w dot buzz backslash TC. I've got out
the under as a free play I talked about earlier
today on wader Talk today. And again, what was the
last year seventeen fourteen, last year twenty one ten, the
year before. Certainly we're talking about what the top two
(39:53):
total defense teams in the country, the top two scoring
defensive teams in the country. My case on the side,
I think is stronger because I'm not expecting I'm not
expecting a boatload of offense necessarily from either squad in
this game. But I think one team particularly gonna have
a real hard time scoring. So I mean under on
(40:18):
Monday Night football tonight. And again, you know we've seen
the toll sit in forty five forty five and a half.
Not a lot of movement there on the total, A
little bit of Buckeye's money here as we speak on
Monday morning. But this game's getting two way action. Really
a side and total.
Speaker 3 (40:37):
Love it, Teddy, and guys, that's going to do it
for the NFL Opening Line report here of course talking
about the super Bowl coming up next as Opening Line
reports super Bowl addition. So come back and join us
right here on the way to talking YouTube channel. But Teddy,
I'll throw it back over to you man. Anything else
you want to throw out before we shut this down.
Speaker 1 (40:56):
Yeah, I just want to get a little bit of
promo if you guys are interested in getting on with
any package, get three day all access and get a
day free. So it's a thirty percent value that expires
Tuesday at midnight. So get four full days of expert
picks and you can stack them, so you get a
couple of those if you want, and get eight days
by all means, and you can take advantage of them
for me or any of the cappers at wager talk
(41:18):
dot com. In edition, be sure to check back tomorrow
five dollars Tuesday best bets from all participating Andy cappers
at Sports Memo and water Talk for just five bucks
and you can get as many as you want of those.
So we again, we appreciate the like so much the
follows the comments. Thank you for being tarted of the
way for being part of the Wager Talk family, and
(41:39):
that's the luck this weekend.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
Cheers well said Eddie.
Speaker 3 (41:43):
Guys comment below any questions. Teddy and myself will be
in there chiming in throughout the week. Champion Chip Week
coming up this Sunday. We got NFL Opening Line reports,
super Bowl Edition. Come back and join us next Monday
for Teddy covers Andrew Martin. Thanks for tuning in. Smash
that like button. Comment below, cash those tickets. Enjoy the
rest your Monday
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