January 13, 2025 • 35 mins
Opening lines for the Divisional Round in the NFL Playoffs are up! How have opening spreads and totals been moving since they've been released and where can we take advantage? Join Drew and Teddy for the Opening Line Report as we dive into Divisional Round odds, picks and predictions before action starts on Saturday!
Introduction 00:00
Wild Card: Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams 2:00
NFL Divisional Round: Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs 4:24
Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions 12:24
Philadelphia Eagles vs Rams/Vikings 19:31
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills 23:19
Q&A 29:55
Introduction 00:00
Wild Card: Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams 2:00
NFL Divisional Round: Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs 4:24
Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions 12:24
Philadelphia Eagles vs Rams/Vikings 19:31
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills 23:19
Q&A 29:55
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome in to the NFL Opening Line Report, Divisional Round,
arguably the best weekend of the NFL season. I am
Drew Martin joined by Teddy Covers getting you ready for
this upcoming week without further ado, Teddy, welcome on in.
Happy Monday morning to you, buddy.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Hey, great to be here, Jue.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
And obviously we have one wild card game still to
play tonight, Rams and Vikings. I am in play on
that game. You can get that right now on my
PAGEBT dot Buzz Backslash Tcover at waggertalk dot com. But
we will take a look at the potential lines for
whoever wins tonight between Minnesota and the Rams, and of
course we'll break down Houston, Kansas City, Washington, Detroit and
(00:49):
Baltimore Buffalo. The game that everybody's been looking forward to
pretty much all season. So let's get into it. You
can't wait to split out this weekend. I lost a
big play. I had the Packers plus the points in
Philly and Green Bay did not play well in that game.
We'll talk about the Eagles a little bit later.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
I'm still not sold on Philadelphia put it that way,
but they got.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
They will to take advantage of mistakes from green Bay
and obviously by the end of the game, the Packers
are missing half their offensive line all their weapons downfield.
Wasn't much for a chance for green Bay to pull
off a comeback in that one that said we need cash.
With Baltimore on Saturday and one in the NBA on yesterday,
we're not gonna panic off a big ticket loss. The
(01:33):
big ticket still really good, well above sixty percent long
term drew, so I can't complain too much. But unfortunately
Yesterday's never really had much of a chance after that
opening kickoff fumble.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
I feel you, Teddy, it was wrong side for me
as well, but it's bounced back mode.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
But yeah, you mentioned it.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
We got the Monday nighter here Minnesota Vikings, La Rams.
We are seeing Vikings minus two in a hook as
the road favorite, minus two at some shops and a
half forty eight being the total. And of course this
game did move location wise. We are seeing State Farms
Stadium went in Arizona here, so we get the Vikings
and the Rams seady anything quickly on the Monday nighter.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
So let's talk about this line once the venue moved,
because it really hasn't done a whole lot since the
venue moved, and obviously the game is still being played
on Monday, a handful of books cancel the original wagers
forced you to make a new wager. Of many books,
being that the game is still being played on the
same day, have not canceled wagers. But it's something worth
(02:36):
double checking for sure if you put a wager down
at some point last week, and I'm sure you already have.
I'm preaching the choir in this one, but we've pretty
much seen to two and a half the whole way
since it's moved. There is a little bit of an
economy here. The two and a half are more at
the public books the two or more at the wise
Guy books. So it's showing at least at this time
(02:56):
of day, that there is at least some sharp so
port for the Rams at the plus price. But again
we're not talking any significant here too versus two and
a half. It's not like there's a huge dichotomy between
one and the other. Total Wise, we've seen a little
bit of under money open forty eight. Now we're seeing
forty seven and a half. Certainly, we talk about the
(03:18):
Rams down the stretch, they were very much an underteam
defense played well. Offense had some hiccups over the final
month of the campaign, but the defense good enough to get
them to win. Minnesota not so much in that regard,
but certainly LA has been an under team in the money.
We're not talking significant money, but a little bit of
money has come for the under in this one. Between
(03:38):
now and kickoff, I'm not expecting a ton of movement
on this game. We could see the two and a
half get bought out down to two, but even that,
I'm not convinced we're going to see. Obviously, lots of
questions about how the Rams are going to react. I've
got my opinion, and my opinions based on a bunch
of stuff that I read over the course of the
last twenty four hours.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
And you know me, I love those player quotes.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
So again, I'm in playe on that game tonight, WT
dot Buzz backslash TC.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
If you want to get on board.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
Check it out, guys, wager talk dot com. Is we
got NFL opening line report getting going now? Is we
got two games on Saturday, two games on Sunday, going
down in rotation order time of kickoff, we got three
eight seven three eight eight Houston and Kansas City kicking
off the round here Teddy with minus eight at most shops.
There is seven and a half out there. That is
(04:26):
the Chiefs is the home favorite. Forty one and a
half or forty two being the total Texans at Chiefs
from Arrowhead to start off the divisional round here DC
and actually have.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
Some look ahead lines for potential matchups from These are
bet online numbers, so they're offshore numbers. But we're friends
with Dave Mason damasaon diffront of the program. I don't
mind using some global numbers when I have the opportunity
to do so. And the look ahead for this game
was casey seven and a half over Houston. As you mentioned,
we're seeing seven and a half eight right now, don't
(04:57):
There are also a couple of nines out there. Note
the nines. The nines are very much worth noting for
this game, and I would call right now the points,
but it's eight.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
My powering number for the game is eight. There are
seven and a half, there are nine.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
The nines are a teaser protection line. They come with
juice and they come on only a handful of books.
Why is it teaser protection?
Speaker 2 (05:19):
Eight?
Speaker 3 (05:20):
With Kansas City everyone's teasing the Chiefs. That's six point
t'ser teasing them down to two. I mean, they know
that their liability on that particular wager is going to
be substantial. So what they do is protection for that.
Eight's not a key number in the NFL. Nine is
not a key number in the NFL. Instead of hanging
an eight, they'll hang a nine and have a little
(05:41):
bit of juice on it, you know, minus one twenty
excuse me, in this instance, minus one twenty to the
dog at the plus nine. And what that insures is
that your six point taser no longer gets you below three.
So I call it a teaser protection line. So the
handful of books in the global markets that have nines
(06:03):
mostly eights out there DK seven and a half right now,
and there's a couple of seven and a halfs more
than the books that cater to recreational better. So again
we're seeing seven and a halfs at the books that
creator to the Joe's and the nines at the books
that catered to the pros, which is worth noting.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Houston case case. I mean, the Texans Chargers game.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
Turned on one play, all right, Houston, The defense kept
him in the game. But they had one first down
the first forty sorry twenty seven minutes of the first half.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
They were on.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Third and was at third and eighteen thirty nineteen, third
and sixteen, I don't remember what it was, third and
sixteen and.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
C. J.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
Stroud fumble the snap. Nightmare scenario. Casey's going to get
the ball back before halftime or not. Casey the charge
are going to get the ball back before halftime, and
they're going to punch in another score and it's going
to be a problem. Instead, Stroud picks up the fumble, snap,
rolled right, fired at dartfround field, thirty four yard completion.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Boom, boom boom. Next thing you know, the Texans offenses rolling.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
They ended up scoring a touchdown on that drive, getting
another score before halftime. That one play changed the entire
flow of the game. And it only came because the
Chargers defense was at a position because the ball was
on the ground, all right, the ball. That said, once
that play happened, once Houston got the momentum, they were phenomenal.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
They dominated.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
You know Tomiko Ryans quote the play he made on
the fumble, snap and throw the Hudgerson That's the play
That just sparked our entire team seeing all the way
all our guys responded after we made the play. Just
outstanding performance by CJ. Of course, you know the defense dominated.
I mean Ryans quote already dominated today. That's who we
(07:53):
want to be. They played our brand of football. They
stopped the run first. That's what I'm most proud of us.
How we stopped the run. We stopped the run and
make a team one dimension and that's when our defensive
line just causes havoc.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Houston the fifth.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
Team with four interceptions, including one return for a touchdown,
and four sacks in a playoff game. Since sacks were
first tracked in nineteen sixty three, only five teams have
done that.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
Houston was one of them.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
The last three teams to do that two thousand and two,
Tampa Bay two thousand, Baltimore ninety eight sorry eighty nine
nine ers all went on to win the Super Bowl.
So they can give Houston has some hope here if
they beat Kansas City, who knows.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
They'll certainly be thinking in that direction.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
These two teams played, of course, in Week sixteen, a
meaningful game for both teams at the time. Kansas City
won twenty seven to nineteen. They were minus four in
that ballgame, minus three and a half by kickoff. Remember
that was a short turnaround game on a Saturday, in
the midst of a stretch where both teams played three
(08:57):
games in eleven days, playing on Christmas twenty seven, nineteen.
Final score the box score. Let's see both teams exactly
seven to thirteen on third downs, both teams exactly five
point four yards per play. The difference to Texans turnovers
none for KC, and Houston went only one of three
in the red zone. They were competitive with Kansas City,
(09:19):
they just weren't able to pull off the upset. And
of course plus eight that would be a push for
this one. So I mean, what they did justin Herbert
obviously been so good if it's a regular season with
only three interceptions. Texans had four interceptions in that contest,
(09:40):
and that's not something you obviously would expect to see.
But it speaks to what Ryan's is capable of doing.
He designs pretty good defensive game plans. He's a defense
a head coach who I have nothing but respect for.
That being said, Kansas City is the best team in
the NFL. They have been for the last half decade.
Even though the powering numbers might have them a little
(10:00):
bit behind Buffalo and Baltimore, we're talking about Kansas City's
home field edge, and either of those two teams coming
into KC. It's certainly a Chiefs to team at the
two signed defending champs that the markets have.
Speaker 2 (10:13):
To take very seriously.
Speaker 3 (10:13):
I was saying the best record in the regular season
again this year, So it's not like we're looking at
Kansas City as anything but elite. At being said, you know,
of the two teams that got bye weeks, Kansas City
got when Detroit won got one, the Chiefs needed theirs.
You know, I would expect them to be They were
a team that got better down the stretch as they're
(10:36):
receiving corps, got healthier, and they figured out what's do
in the passing game, and they've had ample time to
get rested and ready for this one. And they were
banged up team at the end of the regular season
after that brutal stretch of games, and we saw it
in the loss in Denver in Week eighteen where and
he's like, I'm not playing anyone for any reason in
(10:57):
this contest.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
Where's this number gonna go? Well?
Speaker 3 (11:00):
We've seen under money come in so far. I wouldn't
be surprised if we see more Houston relying on their defense.
Kansas City is here because of their defense, and as
we've seen the successful teams do here in the postseason,
it's not about big plays, it's not about creating giant strikes.
It's about grinding out long, slow drives on the ground.
(11:23):
That's what Kansas CIT's been doing all year, these long,
slow ball control drives. That's their mo. That's the mo
of the winning team. Right at Buffalo does the same thing.
Baltimore does the same thing. It's not big plays. So
I'm not surprised that we've seen under money come in
in this one. Again, the early money that's driven the
total as low as forty one and a half as
many books.
Speaker 2 (11:42):
Forty two still widely available, but.
Speaker 3 (11:46):
Under money is showing once we get to forty one
and a half and are always going to get me lower.
I haven't seen a four, haven't even looked at a
forecast yet for Kansas City for next week. And we
remember the home playoff game last year when it was
a little bit nippy at Arrowhead, one of the coldest
games in NFL history. I don't think this is going
to be Vet on Saturday in early starting action in
(12:09):
Kansas City.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
Great start here at TCS. We got one game down, guys.
We got the Saturday Saturday night cap here fifty five
and a half minus eight and hook minus nine. It's
the Detroit Lions hosting the Washington Commanders, who we're heading
to the Motor City up next here Teddy for the
second game on Saturday night. Again minus eight and a half,
minus nine, fifty five fifty five and a half being
(12:32):
the total Washington at Detroit.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Yeah, I've looked at lines for the other three. For
some reason, I did not get one for this game.
And I see the post one for this game, so
why I didn't write it down. My powering number has
Detroit minus seven, so it's a little bit shorter than
the markets right now, again, Casey Houston, my powering's right
on the number. This is a game where I'm a
little bit shorter than the number. And what we see
we saw eight and Halsh last night. We're seeing eight
(12:57):
and a half. Slast nine's today. Total really hasn't done
a lot so far. Fifty five and a half they
were fifty six is out there, there's still a couple,
but we've seen again a smitcheen of under money, a
smidgeon of Lions money. This line's not one that I
expect to do a fair bit. And you know how
football is, how the betting public is. Yes, Lions had
(13:21):
a great season. Yes, I ever made a fortune with
the Lions all year. But the Commanders won yesterday, and
I have a Lions in there weeks ago. I forgot
about that team already. So in terms of Detroit being
the clear public choice here, I don't think that's gonna
be the case.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
I think this game gets two way action in that regard.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
And I mean the Commanders have found all kinds of
ways to win close games. Yesterday and again when it
hits the upright, you're like, oh, Dank's in.
Speaker 2 (13:50):
You know, dan Quinn, I.
Speaker 3 (13:51):
Felt like it was in a bounty commercial where the
cup spills and it's like, no, as it went through,
I just paused and my heart skipped a beat, and
that's where the emotion it was at. You know, Washington's
won six straight right now. The last five of those
wins have occurred on either the final play of the
game or the last play from scrimmage. Okay, So and again,
(14:14):
you know, this is the team that won four games
last year, the thirteen wins this year now, and more
than they had the last two seasons combined. They had
won more in eleven games since nineteen ninety one, you know,
only the fourth playoff wins since winning the Super Bowl
in the ninety one season, only the third playoff victory
in the last twenty six years. So yeah, it's a
(14:34):
rarefied air right now for the Commanders. And certainly it's
a team, you know, like Detroit that has had a
whole lot of posting success in recent year, Traders posting
success anytime. Washington was a dynasty in the late eighties
early nineties, but they have not been since. Dan Quinn
after the game quote, this is a really connected team.
They believe in one another, and you have to have
(14:56):
that connection also have that belief. Offensive guard Sam Cosm,
we don't really waver when those moments come. Some teams
might crumble, but we don't, you know, Terry McLaurin, this team,
this organization, all of us have gone through it. To
be on the other side and have some fruits of
our labor is un believable. John Allen after the kick
(15:16):
went in. Quote defensive tackle John Allen quote, To be honest,
I wasn't surprised at this point the way everything's been going.
We trained for these moments. We've been in these moments
all season, and they've been on the right side of
all of these type disais. Again, when you win six
straight and five of them came in the last play
of the game, you know, and you're doing something in
a positive direction. And we look at Detroit at home,
(15:40):
you know, overtime versus the Rams. They lost to Tampa,
they lost to Buffalo, They blew out Tennessee and Jacksonville.
That a Minnesota blow out in Week eighteen. The Vikings
didn't play well in that game. They had a thirteen
point win over Seattle, three point win in Chicago, three
point winner green Bay.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
They've been better on the road and they have been
at home.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
All right, So this from a postwrip perspective, they've been
better on the road, and we've seen a fair few
tight games, and Washington's winning all of these tight games.
Detroit didn't need the bye week, you know, Casey, did
I understand Detroit and the defensive injuries? Yeah, yeah, yeah,
I'm not surprised that there's been a little bit of
support for the Commanders in the market some of the
public in this one. Detroit's the class here. Detroit's a
(16:26):
game is likely to be a problem for Washington. But
off the buy, who's the pressure on here? You know,
pressure on the home favorite.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
Fascinating game for me.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
I don't know how I'm gonna play it yet, I
really don't. I'm gonna think about this one, and I
like to think it helps me when I, you know,
peruse the games in my head. You know, if I
think about it today, they think about it again tomorrow.
Sometimes something pops saying, You're like, hey, that makes sense. Hey,
let's investigate this. So at the moment, I don't know
what I'm gonna do with Washington Troit. I will think
about it, and let's see how the week progresses. Let's
(16:56):
see what kind of quotes we get from the Alliance
locker room as we get closer to kick off. But certainly,
you know, again the pressure is on Detroit here. Washington
playing with house money. But sometimes that can be a
good thing for the road underdog. That being said, very clearly,
the Alliance of the class in this ball game and
the points spread shows it. And even my powering number,
(17:18):
which is shorter than this, that shows that Detroit deserves
to be significant chalk against the Commanders.
Speaker 1 (17:27):
Well said Teddy, And I'm not sure what you want
to do for the first game on Sunday. It's Philadelphia,
and of course it's eating for the winner here Minnesota
in LA. So I'll throw it over to you.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
Yeah, yeah, So what are we gonna do about it?
Speaker 3 (17:39):
You? We're gonna talk about it. That's what we do
on Monday's on the opening line report. And before I
go any further, just let me let you guys know
you have a promo code. This past weekend was not great.
My college basketball really frustrating day on Saturday, and my
NFL split, but I lost a big one. That being said,
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(18:01):
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(18:23):
you seven days all access just seventy seven bucks. That's
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(18:44):
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Speaker 2 (19:06):
Two hundred thousand close to it at this stage?
Speaker 3 (19:08):
It's incredible the growth of the channel and the reason
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Speaker 2 (19:13):
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Thank you for watching a wager Talk TV. Let's talk
about Minnesota and LA or Minnesota slash LA versus Philadelphia.
I saw a look aheadline the Philly minus three against Minnesota,
minus six and a half against the Rams. My numbers
(19:37):
were shorter than that, less of a difference between the two.
It was minus four against Minnesota and minus six against
the Rams. That's based on my power ratings, So we've
seen the market numbers. That being said, a Minnesota looks
good tonight, I would not be surprised if they'd get
a fair bit of betting market support. But same thing
for LA. If we see one team control tonight's game
(20:00):
opposed to it being you know, back and forth down
to the wire. If somebody controls tonight, I think that
line is going to come shorter than people think against Philadelphia.
And it's certainly an Eagles team that comes out of
yesterday's game.
Speaker 2 (20:14):
With some concerns.
Speaker 3 (20:15):
You know, Nakobe Dean looks like he suffered a serious
knee injury. He's expected to miss the remainder of the playoffs.
Darius Slay the cornerback quote, he's one of the true
leaders on this defense. I know, I got to see
the captain on my chest. But if there's someone I
want to give Mike Capsy to, it's him. He's been
an impact player for vic Fango all season, one hundred
and twenty eight tackles, three sacks, nine tackles, form lost,
(20:37):
six quarterback hits, an interception, and he's also the guy
who relays the defensive calls in to the group below.
Zach Baum, the All Pro linebrecker, did that after he
exited the ball game. There were plus four turnovers in
that contest. They were covering a fumble on the opening
kickoff that was whatever, I'm not going to bitch and moan.
(20:57):
That was fortuitous, both in terms of the hit to
the helmet that wasn't called in to the fumble that
appeared to be recovered by green Bay but somehow it wasn't.
Uh and boom seven on the seven to nothing score.
And then they picked off Jordan Love twice more in
the first half, and they got a missed field goal
from green Bay and green Bay lost all. There's just
(21:17):
I mean, how many receivers they lose. By the time
that game they had no one left on the field.
Their top three receivers were hurt. Two offensive linemen were heard,
and when Jenkins got hurt, it to changed the whole plan.
Philly was plus four and turnovers, and it was still
you know, are the Eagles gonna cover? Uh, It wasn't
a scenario in which Philadelphia, despite the plus four turnovers,
(21:40):
was able to take control of the game and put
their foot on on green Bay's neck.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
Didn't happen.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
The offense for extended stretches of that contest found zero rhythm,
you know. Jalen Hurts after the game the Eagles quote,
need to find our rhythm earlier in the game. His quote, again,
I think it's been an odd year in a sense
of how choppy it's been. Obviously me kind of being
on lead the last couple of weeks or so, being
back and just getting into that rhythm and leaving it
all out there right now, that's what it's about.
Speaker 2 (22:09):
Matt Lafleur, Packers coach, after the game, quote, they got
good players.
Speaker 3 (22:14):
Even we were running the quick game, they were triggering
and coming downhill and smacking us in the back too
many times. They played better than us bottom line. So
it's certainly been a strong Eagles defense. And of course
Nick Sirianni after the game quote, I don't think we
had the game we wanted to have. On offense, Jalaens
did a lot of good things. Jalens a winner, he wins.
No one can argue that. Of course they'll need to
win by margin if they're going to cover the number. Again,
(22:39):
I expect a field goal or higher for Philadelphia regardless
of who they play. But you know, the six and
a half against the Rams or six even with my
powering number, if LA wins tonight, now they wins convincingly,
I think that number comes shorter and a Minnesota wins convincingly.
Speaker 2 (22:54):
Could we see two in answer, Philadelphia, we might.
Speaker 1 (22:59):
To what it's worth, Teddy, We've got one game left
Sunday Night, Baltimore and Buffalo. What a matchup? What a
handicap as well? Can't wait for this one we're seeing.
Minus one and a half is the high water mark,
that being the Ravens is the road favorite. Minus one
pick them all available, fifty one and a half being
the total Ravens at Bills Sunday afternoons slash night.
Speaker 3 (23:23):
Yeah, so my powering number has Buffalo minus one. The
look ahead line was Buffalo minus two.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
Again, this is a.
Speaker 3 (23:31):
Global number We saw the Bills open one one and
a half last night, and all the money so far
has come for Baltimore with the Ravens. Now, you know,
there's still pick thems out there. There's still Baltimore's minus
one out there. There are even Baltimore minus one and
a half in some spots. But let's put it this way,
(23:52):
this game ain't going far from pick them all right,
plus two we'll see buy back on Buffer. I would
think at plus two we'll be able to see buyback
on Baltimore.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
It doesn't matter.
Speaker 3 (24:05):
Seohn McDermott said it after the game, you know, after
they beat Denver. Quote, I mean, this is what everyone's
been waiting for, right, you know, winner of this game.
I don't know if they become the Super Bowl favorites,
depending on what happens in Kansas City Houston, but they're
certainly gonna be the team that has the biggest betting
bandwagon out of anyone whoever wins this contest. You know,
the Bills have seven wins this year by twenty points
(24:27):
or more, two more than any other team. They've blown
out opponents, and of course, I mean Josh Allen's been
MVP worthy, all right, twenty to twenty six in the
win against Denver, two passing touchdowns. They ran for two
hundred and ten yards in that ballgame, including forty six
by down the defense helped bow knicks and two and
(24:48):
nine on third downs. Of course, this is a rematch
of a regular season meeting between Buffalo and Baltimore that
was Week four, all right, and Baltimore killed him with
thirty five to ten. It was the third worst margin
of loss in Josh Allen's career at Boom. Dereck Henry
had an eighty seven yard touchdown run on their first possession.
(25:08):
It was twenty one to three by the time Buffalo blinked,
and then it was you know, it was a very
comfortable win for Baltimore thereafter. Of course, the Bills were
missing key players. Matt Malonna didn't play in that game.
To Rel Bernard didn't play in that game. Darren Johnson
didn't play in that game. So three defensive starters missing.
But we saw a very different response from Buffalo this
(25:32):
past week when they gave up some big plays early
and fell behind. It fell behind Denver seven to nothing,
and then pretty much dominated to the rest of the game.
Defensive end, Greg Russo talking about after falling behind seven
nothing to Denver. Quote, it was really just a message
to ourselves. We know who we are week after week
and what we're capable of, what we're supposed to do
(25:52):
out there. That's what it's all about. We're not worried
about sending a message to anyone. We just know we
got to go out there and execute win games. And
you know, Rasul Douglas came into the game against Denver
and said, you know, we really haven't played our best
football this season. They played a pretty good game on
Sunday against Denver. And again, you cannot compare Denver to Baltimore,
(26:15):
you know, but we could well be seeing a Bills
team that is peaking at the right time. Baltimore is
not a team I want to step in front of
my clients and I cash with Baltimore this past weekend.
Like Buffalo, Baltimore averaged thirty plus points per.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Game this season.
Speaker 3 (26:31):
Unlike Buffalo, Baltimore's defense has been dominant down the stretch,
all right. I mean when I say dominant, I'm talking
about right now since Week eleven, when they moved to
Kyle Hamilton around defensively moved him back to deep safety.
They ranked number one in the NFL in EPA allowed expected.
(26:54):
They areds allowed per play on defense that includes the
postseason game. So this defense is played really, really well
down the stretch, and the full season numbers are lying
in a sense.
Speaker 2 (27:07):
And of course, you know.
Speaker 3 (27:12):
They could be without Jay Flowers again, and well they
didn't miss him much against Buffalo. And again I don't
worry too much about the Ravens passing game even without
their top pass catcher. They have enough downfield weapons that
and enough of a running game that they can overcome
Za flowers absence. This is the kind of game they
want them. That being said, I mean, if you ask me,
(27:36):
what's this game going to be based on my handicap
for Buffalo Baltimore, and I don't know the answer to
the question. That's what I'm going to try to analyze
all week. Can Buffalo stopped Baltimore from running the football?
You know, can they contain the Derek Handley Lamar Jackson duo.
If the Ravens aren't able to move the change with
(27:57):
consistency on the ground, they're not gonna win the game.
So this to me is about Baltimore's rushing offense. Against
Buffalo's run defense, and the advantage in that matchup is
probably the way I'm gonna bet it. I'm not in
a rush to bet against Josh Allen. I'm not in
a rushing against against Lamar Jackson. I may not bet
this game at all. And I'm not in a rush
(28:19):
to play the over either. You know, I understand that,
you know too. Elite offenses again, both scored thirty points
per game this season. But the way the Ravens and
the Bills both want to play right now grind, dink
and dunk keep the other offense off the field, and
that's not a strategy that worked well for over betters
this past weekend. Despite the success of both Baltimore and
(28:43):
Pittsburgh in the red zone, that game still didn't go
over the total because of these long, slow, methodical drives.
Speaker 2 (28:50):
So this game is gonna be great. We're all looking
forward to it.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
I'm gonna try to wrap my head around whether Buffalo's
defense can stop Baltimore. If I think they can stop
Baltimore on the ground, I'll be looking at the Bill side.
If I don't, I'll be looking at the ravenside. The
early money coming for Baltimore today, and that's one Again,
it's not about stats. I want to think about it.
I'm gonna go through game logs for mediable games down
(29:16):
the stretch of these teams. I'm gonna take some time
read some quotes, so it's not about a knee jerk reaction.
Speaker 2 (29:22):
I don't have to knee jerk reaction. This game is
gonna be played till next Sunday night. We'll do our work.
We'll see what we come up with in that regard.
Speaker 3 (29:29):
But that's my basic handicap for Buffalo Baltimore. It should
be a great game. We're all looking forward to it already. Absolutely, Teddy,
great game there.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
We got a couple of questions here, guys from Tony
on last week's show. Remember if you're watching on replay,
feel free to comment below. Teddy and I will be
in there throughout the week chiming it up with you.
Wouldn't strength of schedule be flawed for better teams like
Minnesota because they lowered their opponent's record by beating them.
I thought about this a lot, Teddy. How to strength
of schedule work out with the better teams? Is that
(30:02):
actually hurt them?
Speaker 2 (30:04):
So?
Speaker 3 (30:06):
I So I'm using my numbers based on my power
rating number of their opponent the week the game was played,
so it doesn't even factor the result of that game.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
You understand if if and I tend to.
Speaker 3 (30:23):
I say, I use it the week of I because
power ratings bump around a little bit, I tend to
look at like a three week window and kind of
average the three weeks the week before, the week of
the week after.
Speaker 2 (30:34):
You know, I do it by hand. I do all
this stuff by hand. I'm a by hand guy. Uh,
and it works for me.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
I'm not using AI. I'm not trying to get someone
else's to take short shortcuts. Because as you're going through
the schedule that helps me do that, you know, you're
you're getting a sense this is how the season played out.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
That's how you know. When you dig, you find stuff.
So now I've lost track of the question, Drew, I apologize.
What's the question?
Speaker 1 (31:00):
Wouldn't strength the schedule be flawed for the best because
they so.
Speaker 3 (31:05):
What you'll always see at the end of the year
is that the teams, the weakest teams face toughert trangths
schedule because they tend to play you know, every team.
They the weaker teams tend to have the toughert stranger
schedules because they have more good opponents, and the tougher
teams tend to have easier strength of schedule because they
tend to have weaker opponents. But just for example, for this,
(31:27):
I can go through my sos for the fourteen playoff
teams and I'll tell you this. You know, Baltimore schedule
was brutal, Pittsburgh's schedule was brutal, Kansas City schedule was
pretty tough, as was Green Bay. So despite that they
beat some of these they beat up on some of
these bad teams. The strength of schedule numbers show that
(31:47):
they played a lot of good opponents as opposed to
the Chargers and the Bucks who were less in lesser
in that regard. But it's like any other system. All right,
you use it, but you don't let it create your
plays exclusively. All right, Let's you point you in a direction,
and then any other angle, any system, any trend. They
(32:10):
can point you in a direction, but the facts have
to back it up once if you want your point
in that direction. And that's certainly something that I use
when it comes to strength of schedule. Good question, Thanks
for asking.
Speaker 1 (32:20):
Yeah, absolutely, Teddy. Another one here, Why would only some
books do teaser protection? Like bet online at nine for
the first game, we talked about why wouldn't all the
books do that?
Speaker 2 (32:33):
Why only some limits?
Speaker 3 (32:36):
You know, So again each book's making their own decision.
But when we're talking about the bigger global sports books,
there could be a lot more liability on teasers. And
you're going to see from a book that's taken you know,
nickels and dimes, So the liability numbers can become extraordinary
(32:57):
when we're talking about the biggest global books and I've
got playoffs draw global action, all right. You know, it's
not just all the money come from the States. It's
it's a it's a global product, and it's a it's
so the books that are going to be taking you know,
and again I want to throw numbers out there that
(33:18):
are that are that that I'm not sure of. But
when the books are taking well into into the you know,
seven and eight figure categories, they're they're they're going to
do stuff to protect themselves and and your average book
doesn't have those type of liabilities.
Speaker 2 (33:32):
So it's just a volume that the that the some
of the bigger global books do.
Speaker 1 (33:37):
Makes sense, steady, anything else you want to throw out
there before you shut this down.
Speaker 3 (33:42):
So and then let me let me respond a little
bit further to that question, because if you ask me
why books do what they do, a lot of times
I can't tell you, you know, because that's the way
it's been done, that's the way they've always done it.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
That's the way the m O I would not be
shocked to see.
Speaker 3 (34:00):
You know, we saw a bigger movement towards teaser protection
lines in the like that a stretch from like, oh,
the late oughts into the early teens of this century,
from like you know, seven, eight or nine down eleven
and twelve. There was a lot going on in the
teaser world, and the books took a fair beating on
(34:23):
teasers to the wise guys during that span. And that's
when teaser protection lines, you know, it was what really
came into the play. So it's not something I can't
tell you why the books in Vegas don't do it.
But if I'm a bookmaker, I would have no hesitation
seven and a half. Let's go to nine if the
money's coming that way, because in neither eight, eight and
(34:43):
a half nine are our key numbers when it comes
to the NFL.
Speaker 2 (34:47):
So if I was a bookmaker, I do it. It
makes it makes sense to me.
Speaker 3 (34:52):
Anything else that I wanted to say, I don't know
what to say. Thanks for watching. Enjoy check out my homepage.
We see that buzz backslash tc. Give us a like,
give us a follow, give us a comment, Have a
great day, have a great week. We appreciate all of
your support genuinely wagotalk dot com and thanks for watching us.
Speaker 1 (35:12):
For Teddy covers Andrew Martin, that does it, guys, come
back and join us next week. Until then, cash those tickets.
Thanks for tuning in.
Welcome in to the NFL Opening Line Report, Divisional Round,
arguably the best weekend of the NFL season. I am
Drew Martin joined by Teddy Covers getting you ready for
this upcoming week without further ado, Teddy, welcome on in.
Happy Monday morning to you, buddy.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Hey, great to be here, Jue.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
And obviously we have one wild card game still to
play tonight, Rams and Vikings. I am in play on
that game. You can get that right now on my
PAGEBT dot Buzz Backslash Tcover at waggertalk dot com. But
we will take a look at the potential lines for
whoever wins tonight between Minnesota and the Rams, and of
course we'll break down Houston, Kansas City, Washington, Detroit and
(00:49):
Baltimore Buffalo. The game that everybody's been looking forward to
pretty much all season. So let's get into it. You
can't wait to split out this weekend. I lost a
big play. I had the Packers plus the points in
Philly and Green Bay did not play well in that game.
We'll talk about the Eagles a little bit later.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
I'm still not sold on Philadelphia put it that way,
but they got.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
They will to take advantage of mistakes from green Bay
and obviously by the end of the game, the Packers
are missing half their offensive line all their weapons downfield.
Wasn't much for a chance for green Bay to pull
off a comeback in that one that said we need cash.
With Baltimore on Saturday and one in the NBA on yesterday,
we're not gonna panic off a big ticket loss. The
(01:33):
big ticket still really good, well above sixty percent long
term drew, so I can't complain too much. But unfortunately
Yesterday's never really had much of a chance after that
opening kickoff fumble.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
I feel you, Teddy, it was wrong side for me
as well, but it's bounced back mode.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
But yeah, you mentioned it.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
We got the Monday nighter here Minnesota Vikings, La Rams.
We are seeing Vikings minus two in a hook as
the road favorite, minus two at some shops and a
half forty eight being the total. And of course this
game did move location wise. We are seeing State Farms
Stadium went in Arizona here, so we get the Vikings
and the Rams seady anything quickly on the Monday nighter.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
So let's talk about this line once the venue moved,
because it really hasn't done a whole lot since the
venue moved, and obviously the game is still being played
on Monday, a handful of books cancel the original wagers
forced you to make a new wager. Of many books,
being that the game is still being played on the
same day, have not canceled wagers. But it's something worth
(02:36):
double checking for sure if you put a wager down
at some point last week, and I'm sure you already have.
I'm preaching the choir in this one, but we've pretty
much seen to two and a half the whole way
since it's moved. There is a little bit of an
economy here. The two and a half are more at
the public books the two or more at the wise
Guy books. So it's showing at least at this time
(02:56):
of day, that there is at least some sharp so
port for the Rams at the plus price. But again
we're not talking any significant here too versus two and
a half. It's not like there's a huge dichotomy between
one and the other. Total Wise, we've seen a little
bit of under money open forty eight. Now we're seeing
forty seven and a half. Certainly, we talk about the
(03:18):
Rams down the stretch, they were very much an underteam
defense played well. Offense had some hiccups over the final
month of the campaign, but the defense good enough to get
them to win. Minnesota not so much in that regard,
but certainly LA has been an under team in the money.
We're not talking significant money, but a little bit of
money has come for the under in this one. Between
(03:38):
now and kickoff, I'm not expecting a ton of movement
on this game. We could see the two and a
half get bought out down to two, but even that,
I'm not convinced we're going to see. Obviously, lots of
questions about how the Rams are going to react. I've
got my opinion, and my opinions based on a bunch
of stuff that I read over the course of the
last twenty four hours.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
And you know me, I love those player quotes.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
So again, I'm in playe on that game tonight, WT
dot Buzz backslash TC.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
If you want to get on board.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
Check it out, guys, wager talk dot com. Is we
got NFL opening line report getting going now? Is we
got two games on Saturday, two games on Sunday, going
down in rotation order time of kickoff, we got three
eight seven three eight eight Houston and Kansas City kicking
off the round here Teddy with minus eight at most shops.
There is seven and a half out there. That is
(04:26):
the Chiefs is the home favorite. Forty one and a
half or forty two being the total Texans at Chiefs
from Arrowhead to start off the divisional round here DC
and actually have.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
Some look ahead lines for potential matchups from These are
bet online numbers, so they're offshore numbers. But we're friends
with Dave Mason damasaon diffront of the program. I don't
mind using some global numbers when I have the opportunity
to do so. And the look ahead for this game
was casey seven and a half over Houston. As you mentioned,
we're seeing seven and a half eight right now, don't
(04:57):
There are also a couple of nines out there. Note
the nines. The nines are very much worth noting for
this game, and I would call right now the points,
but it's eight.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
My powering number for the game is eight. There are
seven and a half, there are nine.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
The nines are a teaser protection line. They come with
juice and they come on only a handful of books.
Why is it teaser protection?
Speaker 2 (05:19):
Eight?
Speaker 3 (05:20):
With Kansas City everyone's teasing the Chiefs. That's six point
t'ser teasing them down to two. I mean, they know
that their liability on that particular wager is going to
be substantial. So what they do is protection for that.
Eight's not a key number in the NFL. Nine is
not a key number in the NFL. Instead of hanging
an eight, they'll hang a nine and have a little
(05:41):
bit of juice on it, you know, minus one twenty
excuse me, in this instance, minus one twenty to the
dog at the plus nine. And what that insures is
that your six point taser no longer gets you below three.
So I call it a teaser protection line. So the
handful of books in the global markets that have nines
(06:03):
mostly eights out there DK seven and a half right now,
and there's a couple of seven and a halfs more
than the books that cater to recreational better. So again
we're seeing seven and a halfs at the books that
creator to the Joe's and the nines at the books
that catered to the pros, which is worth noting.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Houston case case. I mean, the Texans Chargers game.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
Turned on one play, all right, Houston, The defense kept
him in the game. But they had one first down
the first forty sorry twenty seven minutes of the first half.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
They were on.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Third and was at third and eighteen thirty nineteen, third
and sixteen, I don't remember what it was, third and
sixteen and.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
C. J.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
Stroud fumble the snap. Nightmare scenario. Casey's going to get
the ball back before halftime or not. Casey the charge
are going to get the ball back before halftime, and
they're going to punch in another score and it's going
to be a problem. Instead, Stroud picks up the fumble, snap,
rolled right, fired at dartfround field, thirty four yard completion.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Boom, boom boom. Next thing you know, the Texans offenses rolling.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
They ended up scoring a touchdown on that drive, getting
another score before halftime. That one play changed the entire
flow of the game. And it only came because the
Chargers defense was at a position because the ball was
on the ground, all right, the ball. That said, once
that play happened, once Houston got the momentum, they were phenomenal.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
They dominated.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
You know Tomiko Ryans quote the play he made on
the fumble, snap and throw the Hudgerson That's the play
That just sparked our entire team seeing all the way
all our guys responded after we made the play. Just
outstanding performance by CJ. Of course, you know the defense dominated.
I mean Ryans quote already dominated today. That's who we
(07:53):
want to be. They played our brand of football. They
stopped the run first. That's what I'm most proud of us.
How we stopped the run. We stopped the run and
make a team one dimension and that's when our defensive
line just causes havoc.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Houston the fifth.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
Team with four interceptions, including one return for a touchdown,
and four sacks in a playoff game. Since sacks were
first tracked in nineteen sixty three, only five teams have
done that.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
Houston was one of them.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
The last three teams to do that two thousand and two,
Tampa Bay two thousand, Baltimore ninety eight sorry eighty nine
nine ers all went on to win the Super Bowl.
So they can give Houston has some hope here if
they beat Kansas City, who knows.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
They'll certainly be thinking in that direction.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
These two teams played, of course, in Week sixteen, a
meaningful game for both teams at the time. Kansas City
won twenty seven to nineteen. They were minus four in
that ballgame, minus three and a half by kickoff. Remember
that was a short turnaround game on a Saturday, in
the midst of a stretch where both teams played three
(08:57):
games in eleven days, playing on Christmas twenty seven, nineteen.
Final score the box score. Let's see both teams exactly
seven to thirteen on third downs, both teams exactly five
point four yards per play. The difference to Texans turnovers
none for KC, and Houston went only one of three
in the red zone. They were competitive with Kansas City,
(09:19):
they just weren't able to pull off the upset. And
of course plus eight that would be a push for
this one. So I mean, what they did justin Herbert
obviously been so good if it's a regular season with
only three interceptions. Texans had four interceptions in that contest,
(09:40):
and that's not something you obviously would expect to see.
But it speaks to what Ryan's is capable of doing.
He designs pretty good defensive game plans. He's a defense
a head coach who I have nothing but respect for.
That being said, Kansas City is the best team in
the NFL. They have been for the last half decade.
Even though the powering numbers might have them a little
(10:00):
bit behind Buffalo and Baltimore, we're talking about Kansas City's
home field edge, and either of those two teams coming
into KC. It's certainly a Chiefs to team at the
two signed defending champs that the markets have.
Speaker 2 (10:13):
To take very seriously.
Speaker 3 (10:13):
I was saying the best record in the regular season
again this year, So it's not like we're looking at
Kansas City as anything but elite. At being said, you know,
of the two teams that got bye weeks, Kansas City
got when Detroit won got one, the Chiefs needed theirs.
You know, I would expect them to be They were
a team that got better down the stretch as they're
(10:36):
receiving corps, got healthier, and they figured out what's do
in the passing game, and they've had ample time to
get rested and ready for this one. And they were
banged up team at the end of the regular season
after that brutal stretch of games, and we saw it
in the loss in Denver in Week eighteen where and
he's like, I'm not playing anyone for any reason in
(10:57):
this contest.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
Where's this number gonna go? Well?
Speaker 3 (11:00):
We've seen under money come in so far. I wouldn't
be surprised if we see more Houston relying on their defense.
Kansas City is here because of their defense, and as
we've seen the successful teams do here in the postseason,
it's not about big plays, it's not about creating giant strikes.
It's about grinding out long, slow drives on the ground.
(11:23):
That's what Kansas CIT's been doing all year, these long,
slow ball control drives. That's their mo. That's the mo
of the winning team. Right at Buffalo does the same thing.
Baltimore does the same thing. It's not big plays. So
I'm not surprised that we've seen under money come in
in this one. Again, the early money that's driven the
total as low as forty one and a half as
many books.
Speaker 2 (11:42):
Forty two still widely available, but.
Speaker 3 (11:46):
Under money is showing once we get to forty one
and a half and are always going to get me lower.
I haven't seen a four, haven't even looked at a
forecast yet for Kansas City for next week. And we
remember the home playoff game last year when it was
a little bit nippy at Arrowhead, one of the coldest
games in NFL history. I don't think this is going
to be Vet on Saturday in early starting action in
(12:09):
Kansas City.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
Great start here at TCS. We got one game down, guys.
We got the Saturday Saturday night cap here fifty five
and a half minus eight and hook minus nine. It's
the Detroit Lions hosting the Washington Commanders, who we're heading
to the Motor City up next here Teddy for the
second game on Saturday night. Again minus eight and a half,
minus nine, fifty five fifty five and a half being
(12:32):
the total Washington at Detroit.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Yeah, I've looked at lines for the other three. For
some reason, I did not get one for this game.
And I see the post one for this game, so
why I didn't write it down. My powering number has
Detroit minus seven, so it's a little bit shorter than
the markets right now, again, Casey Houston, my powering's right
on the number. This is a game where I'm a
little bit shorter than the number. And what we see
we saw eight and Halsh last night. We're seeing eight
(12:57):
and a half. Slast nine's today. Total really hasn't done
a lot so far. Fifty five and a half they
were fifty six is out there, there's still a couple,
but we've seen again a smitcheen of under money, a
smidgeon of Lions money. This line's not one that I
expect to do a fair bit. And you know how
football is, how the betting public is. Yes, Lions had
(13:21):
a great season. Yes, I ever made a fortune with
the Lions all year. But the Commanders won yesterday, and
I have a Lions in there weeks ago. I forgot
about that team already. So in terms of Detroit being
the clear public choice here, I don't think that's gonna
be the case.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
I think this game gets two way action in that regard.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
And I mean the Commanders have found all kinds of
ways to win close games. Yesterday and again when it
hits the upright, you're like, oh, Dank's in.
Speaker 2 (13:50):
You know, dan Quinn, I.
Speaker 3 (13:51):
Felt like it was in a bounty commercial where the
cup spills and it's like, no, as it went through,
I just paused and my heart skipped a beat, and
that's where the emotion it was at. You know, Washington's
won six straight right now. The last five of those
wins have occurred on either the final play of the
game or the last play from scrimmage. Okay, So and again,
(14:14):
you know, this is the team that won four games
last year, the thirteen wins this year now, and more
than they had the last two seasons combined. They had
won more in eleven games since nineteen ninety one, you know,
only the fourth playoff wins since winning the Super Bowl
in the ninety one season, only the third playoff victory
in the last twenty six years. So yeah, it's a
(14:34):
rarefied air right now for the Commanders. And certainly it's
a team, you know, like Detroit that has had a
whole lot of posting success in recent year, Traders posting
success anytime. Washington was a dynasty in the late eighties
early nineties, but they have not been since. Dan Quinn
after the game quote, this is a really connected team.
They believe in one another, and you have to have
(14:56):
that connection also have that belief. Offensive guard Sam Cosm,
we don't really waver when those moments come. Some teams
might crumble, but we don't, you know, Terry McLaurin, this team,
this organization, all of us have gone through it. To
be on the other side and have some fruits of
our labor is un believable. John Allen after the kick
(15:16):
went in. Quote defensive tackle John Allen quote, To be honest,
I wasn't surprised at this point the way everything's been going.
We trained for these moments. We've been in these moments
all season, and they've been on the right side of
all of these type disais. Again, when you win six
straight and five of them came in the last play
of the game, you know, and you're doing something in
a positive direction. And we look at Detroit at home,
(15:40):
you know, overtime versus the Rams. They lost to Tampa,
they lost to Buffalo, They blew out Tennessee and Jacksonville.
That a Minnesota blow out in Week eighteen. The Vikings
didn't play well in that game. They had a thirteen
point win over Seattle, three point win in Chicago, three
point winner green Bay.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
They've been better on the road and they have been
at home.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
All right, So this from a postwrip perspective, they've been
better on the road, and we've seen a fair few
tight games, and Washington's winning all of these tight games.
Detroit didn't need the bye week, you know, Casey, did
I understand Detroit and the defensive injuries? Yeah, yeah, yeah,
I'm not surprised that there's been a little bit of
support for the Commanders in the market some of the
public in this one. Detroit's the class here. Detroit's a
(16:26):
game is likely to be a problem for Washington. But
off the buy, who's the pressure on here? You know,
pressure on the home favorite.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
Fascinating game for me.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
I don't know how I'm gonna play it yet, I
really don't. I'm gonna think about this one, and I
like to think it helps me when I, you know,
peruse the games in my head. You know, if I
think about it today, they think about it again tomorrow.
Sometimes something pops saying, You're like, hey, that makes sense. Hey,
let's investigate this. So at the moment, I don't know
what I'm gonna do with Washington Troit. I will think
about it, and let's see how the week progresses. Let's
(16:56):
see what kind of quotes we get from the Alliance
locker room as we get closer to kick off. But certainly,
you know, again the pressure is on Detroit here. Washington
playing with house money. But sometimes that can be a
good thing for the road underdog. That being said, very clearly,
the Alliance of the class in this ball game and
the points spread shows it. And even my powering number,
(17:18):
which is shorter than this, that shows that Detroit deserves
to be significant chalk against the Commanders.
Speaker 1 (17:27):
Well said Teddy, And I'm not sure what you want
to do for the first game on Sunday. It's Philadelphia,
and of course it's eating for the winner here Minnesota
in LA. So I'll throw it over to you.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
Yeah, yeah, So what are we gonna do about it?
Speaker 3 (17:39):
You? We're gonna talk about it. That's what we do
on Monday's on the opening line report. And before I
go any further, just let me let you guys know
you have a promo code. This past weekend was not great.
My college basketball really frustrating day on Saturday, and my
NFL split, but I lost a big one. That being said,
all right, I'm freaking hungry and I'm ready to win
(18:01):
this week. Get a seven day all access all right.
Use promo code Teddy seven at checkout and you get
it for eleven dollars a day, seventy seven bucks. That's
every play every day, and every sport gets all the
plays next week into the NFL gets all the hoops
all week. If you buy it tomorrow, they get the
National Championship game as well. Teddy seven at checkout gets
(18:23):
you seven days all access just seventy seven bucks. That's
the deal to get if you're interested. I've been playing
the game tonight. I also have an NBA four percent
play tonight, fresh off a nice winner with the Pacers
winning out right yesterday is fifteen by fifteen is nine
point dogs in Cleveland, So we'll see if we can
keep that rolling. And of course when it comes to likes,
(18:44):
when it comes to follows, we really appreciate all the comments.
Every week Drew and I get in the comments. We
try to make sure that you guys or respond to
everything that you have and literally just every comment I
try to at least say something to so I appreciate
you guys in the comments, appreciate the likes very very much.
And if you haven't suscribed to the wagers talk to
YouTube channel, well you're missing out or do you have.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
Two hundred thousand close to it at this stage?
Speaker 3 (19:08):
It's incredible the growth of the channel and the reason
it grows is because we put out good content and.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
A ton of it every day.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
So if you haven't done so, like subscribe comment below.
Thank you for watching a wager Talk TV. Let's talk
about Minnesota and LA or Minnesota slash LA versus Philadelphia.
I saw a look aheadline the Philly minus three against Minnesota,
minus six and a half against the Rams. My numbers
(19:37):
were shorter than that, less of a difference between the two.
It was minus four against Minnesota and minus six against
the Rams. That's based on my power ratings, So we've
seen the market numbers. That being said, a Minnesota looks
good tonight, I would not be surprised if they'd get
a fair bit of betting market support. But same thing
for LA. If we see one team control tonight's game
(20:00):
opposed to it being you know, back and forth down
to the wire. If somebody controls tonight, I think that
line is going to come shorter than people think against Philadelphia.
And it's certainly an Eagles team that comes out of
yesterday's game.
Speaker 2 (20:14):
With some concerns.
Speaker 3 (20:15):
You know, Nakobe Dean looks like he suffered a serious
knee injury. He's expected to miss the remainder of the playoffs.
Darius Slay the cornerback quote, he's one of the true
leaders on this defense. I know, I got to see
the captain on my chest. But if there's someone I
want to give Mike Capsy to, it's him. He's been
an impact player for vic Fango all season, one hundred
and twenty eight tackles, three sacks, nine tackles, form lost,
(20:37):
six quarterback hits, an interception, and he's also the guy
who relays the defensive calls in to the group below.
Zach Baum, the All Pro linebrecker, did that after he
exited the ball game. There were plus four turnovers in
that contest. They were covering a fumble on the opening
kickoff that was whatever, I'm not going to bitch and moan.
(20:57):
That was fortuitous, both in terms of the hit to
the helmet that wasn't called in to the fumble that
appeared to be recovered by green Bay but somehow it wasn't.
Uh and boom seven on the seven to nothing score.
And then they picked off Jordan Love twice more in
the first half, and they got a missed field goal
from green Bay and green Bay lost all. There's just
(21:17):
I mean, how many receivers they lose. By the time
that game they had no one left on the field.
Their top three receivers were hurt. Two offensive linemen were heard,
and when Jenkins got hurt, it to changed the whole plan.
Philly was plus four and turnovers, and it was still
you know, are the Eagles gonna cover? Uh, It wasn't
a scenario in which Philadelphia, despite the plus four turnovers,
(21:40):
was able to take control of the game and put
their foot on on green Bay's neck.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
Didn't happen.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
The offense for extended stretches of that contest found zero rhythm,
you know. Jalen Hurts after the game the Eagles quote,
need to find our rhythm earlier in the game. His quote, again,
I think it's been an odd year in a sense
of how choppy it's been. Obviously me kind of being
on lead the last couple of weeks or so, being
back and just getting into that rhythm and leaving it
all out there right now, that's what it's about.
Speaker 2 (22:09):
Matt Lafleur, Packers coach, after the game, quote, they got
good players.
Speaker 3 (22:14):
Even we were running the quick game, they were triggering
and coming downhill and smacking us in the back too
many times. They played better than us bottom line. So
it's certainly been a strong Eagles defense. And of course
Nick Sirianni after the game quote, I don't think we
had the game we wanted to have. On offense, Jalaens
did a lot of good things. Jalens a winner, he wins.
No one can argue that. Of course they'll need to
win by margin if they're going to cover the number. Again,
(22:39):
I expect a field goal or higher for Philadelphia regardless
of who they play. But you know, the six and
a half against the Rams or six even with my
powering number, if LA wins tonight, now they wins convincingly,
I think that number comes shorter and a Minnesota wins convincingly.
Speaker 2 (22:54):
Could we see two in answer, Philadelphia, we might.
Speaker 1 (22:59):
To what it's worth, Teddy, We've got one game left
Sunday Night, Baltimore and Buffalo. What a matchup? What a
handicap as well? Can't wait for this one we're seeing.
Minus one and a half is the high water mark,
that being the Ravens is the road favorite. Minus one
pick them all available, fifty one and a half being
the total Ravens at Bills Sunday afternoons slash night.
Speaker 3 (23:23):
Yeah, so my powering number has Buffalo minus one. The
look ahead line was Buffalo minus two.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
Again, this is a.
Speaker 3 (23:31):
Global number We saw the Bills open one one and
a half last night, and all the money so far
has come for Baltimore with the Ravens. Now, you know,
there's still pick thems out there. There's still Baltimore's minus
one out there. There are even Baltimore minus one and
a half in some spots. But let's put it this way,
(23:52):
this game ain't going far from pick them all right,
plus two we'll see buy back on Buffer. I would
think at plus two we'll be able to see buyback
on Baltimore.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
It doesn't matter.
Speaker 3 (24:05):
Seohn McDermott said it after the game, you know, after
they beat Denver. Quote, I mean, this is what everyone's
been waiting for, right, you know, winner of this game.
I don't know if they become the Super Bowl favorites,
depending on what happens in Kansas City Houston, but they're
certainly gonna be the team that has the biggest betting
bandwagon out of anyone whoever wins this contest. You know,
the Bills have seven wins this year by twenty points
(24:27):
or more, two more than any other team. They've blown
out opponents, and of course, I mean Josh Allen's been
MVP worthy, all right, twenty to twenty six in the
win against Denver, two passing touchdowns. They ran for two
hundred and ten yards in that ballgame, including forty six
by down the defense helped bow knicks and two and
(24:48):
nine on third downs. Of course, this is a rematch
of a regular season meeting between Buffalo and Baltimore that
was Week four, all right, and Baltimore killed him with
thirty five to ten. It was the third worst margin
of loss in Josh Allen's career at Boom. Dereck Henry
had an eighty seven yard touchdown run on their first possession.
(25:08):
It was twenty one to three by the time Buffalo blinked,
and then it was you know, it was a very
comfortable win for Baltimore thereafter. Of course, the Bills were
missing key players. Matt Malonna didn't play in that game.
To Rel Bernard didn't play in that game. Darren Johnson
didn't play in that game. So three defensive starters missing.
But we saw a very different response from Buffalo this
(25:32):
past week when they gave up some big plays early
and fell behind. It fell behind Denver seven to nothing,
and then pretty much dominated to the rest of the game.
Defensive end, Greg Russo talking about after falling behind seven
nothing to Denver. Quote, it was really just a message
to ourselves. We know who we are week after week
and what we're capable of, what we're supposed to do
(25:52):
out there. That's what it's all about. We're not worried
about sending a message to anyone. We just know we
got to go out there and execute win games. And
you know, Rasul Douglas came into the game against Denver
and said, you know, we really haven't played our best
football this season. They played a pretty good game on
Sunday against Denver. And again, you cannot compare Denver to Baltimore,
(26:15):
you know, but we could well be seeing a Bills
team that is peaking at the right time. Baltimore is
not a team I want to step in front of
my clients and I cash with Baltimore this past weekend.
Like Buffalo, Baltimore averaged thirty plus points per.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Game this season.
Speaker 3 (26:31):
Unlike Buffalo, Baltimore's defense has been dominant down the stretch,
all right. I mean when I say dominant, I'm talking
about right now since Week eleven, when they moved to
Kyle Hamilton around defensively moved him back to deep safety.
They ranked number one in the NFL in EPA allowed expected.
(26:54):
They areds allowed per play on defense that includes the
postseason game. So this defense is played really, really well
down the stretch, and the full season numbers are lying
in a sense.
Speaker 2 (27:07):
And of course, you know.
Speaker 3 (27:12):
They could be without Jay Flowers again, and well they
didn't miss him much against Buffalo. And again I don't
worry too much about the Ravens passing game even without
their top pass catcher. They have enough downfield weapons that
and enough of a running game that they can overcome
Za flowers absence. This is the kind of game they
want them. That being said, I mean, if you ask me,
(27:36):
what's this game going to be based on my handicap
for Buffalo Baltimore, and I don't know the answer to
the question. That's what I'm going to try to analyze
all week. Can Buffalo stopped Baltimore from running the football?
You know, can they contain the Derek Handley Lamar Jackson duo.
If the Ravens aren't able to move the change with
(27:57):
consistency on the ground, they're not gonna win the game.
So this to me is about Baltimore's rushing offense. Against
Buffalo's run defense, and the advantage in that matchup is
probably the way I'm gonna bet it. I'm not in
a rush to bet against Josh Allen. I'm not in
a rushing against against Lamar Jackson. I may not bet
this game at all. And I'm not in a rush
(28:19):
to play the over either. You know, I understand that,
you know too. Elite offenses again, both scored thirty points
per game this season. But the way the Ravens and
the Bills both want to play right now grind, dink
and dunk keep the other offense off the field, and
that's not a strategy that worked well for over betters
this past weekend. Despite the success of both Baltimore and
(28:43):
Pittsburgh in the red zone, that game still didn't go
over the total because of these long, slow, methodical drives.
Speaker 2 (28:50):
So this game is gonna be great. We're all looking
forward to it.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
I'm gonna try to wrap my head around whether Buffalo's
defense can stop Baltimore. If I think they can stop
Baltimore on the ground, I'll be looking at the Bill side.
If I don't, I'll be looking at the ravenside. The
early money coming for Baltimore today, and that's one Again,
it's not about stats. I want to think about it.
I'm gonna go through game logs for mediable games down
(29:16):
the stretch of these teams. I'm gonna take some time
read some quotes, so it's not about a knee jerk reaction.
Speaker 2 (29:22):
I don't have to knee jerk reaction. This game is
gonna be played till next Sunday night. We'll do our work.
We'll see what we come up with in that regard.
Speaker 3 (29:29):
But that's my basic handicap for Buffalo Baltimore. It should
be a great game. We're all looking forward to it already. Absolutely, Teddy,
great game there.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
We got a couple of questions here, guys from Tony
on last week's show. Remember if you're watching on replay,
feel free to comment below. Teddy and I will be
in there throughout the week chiming it up with you.
Wouldn't strength of schedule be flawed for better teams like
Minnesota because they lowered their opponent's record by beating them.
I thought about this a lot, Teddy. How to strength
of schedule work out with the better teams? Is that
(30:02):
actually hurt them?
Speaker 2 (30:04):
So?
Speaker 3 (30:06):
I So I'm using my numbers based on my power
rating number of their opponent the week the game was played,
so it doesn't even factor the result of that game.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
You understand if if and I tend to.
Speaker 3 (30:23):
I say, I use it the week of I because
power ratings bump around a little bit, I tend to
look at like a three week window and kind of
average the three weeks the week before, the week of
the week after.
Speaker 2 (30:34):
You know, I do it by hand. I do all
this stuff by hand. I'm a by hand guy. Uh,
and it works for me.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
I'm not using AI. I'm not trying to get someone
else's to take short shortcuts. Because as you're going through
the schedule that helps me do that, you know, you're
you're getting a sense this is how the season played out.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
That's how you know. When you dig, you find stuff.
So now I've lost track of the question, Drew, I apologize.
What's the question?
Speaker 1 (31:00):
Wouldn't strength the schedule be flawed for the best because
they so.
Speaker 3 (31:05):
What you'll always see at the end of the year
is that the teams, the weakest teams face toughert trangths
schedule because they tend to play you know, every team.
They the weaker teams tend to have the toughert stranger
schedules because they have more good opponents, and the tougher
teams tend to have easier strength of schedule because they
tend to have weaker opponents. But just for example, for this,
(31:27):
I can go through my sos for the fourteen playoff
teams and I'll tell you this. You know, Baltimore schedule
was brutal, Pittsburgh's schedule was brutal, Kansas City schedule was
pretty tough, as was Green Bay. So despite that they
beat some of these they beat up on some of
these bad teams. The strength of schedule numbers show that
(31:47):
they played a lot of good opponents as opposed to
the Chargers and the Bucks who were less in lesser
in that regard. But it's like any other system. All right,
you use it, but you don't let it create your
plays exclusively. All right, Let's you point you in a direction,
and then any other angle, any system, any trend. They
(32:10):
can point you in a direction, but the facts have
to back it up once if you want your point
in that direction. And that's certainly something that I use
when it comes to strength of schedule. Good question, Thanks
for asking.
Speaker 1 (32:20):
Yeah, absolutely, Teddy. Another one here, Why would only some
books do teaser protection? Like bet online at nine for
the first game, we talked about why wouldn't all the
books do that?
Speaker 2 (32:33):
Why only some limits?
Speaker 3 (32:36):
You know, So again each book's making their own decision.
But when we're talking about the bigger global sports books,
there could be a lot more liability on teasers. And
you're going to see from a book that's taken you know,
nickels and dimes, So the liability numbers can become extraordinary
(32:57):
when we're talking about the biggest global books and I've
got playoffs draw global action, all right. You know, it's
not just all the money come from the States. It's
it's a it's a global product, and it's a it's
so the books that are going to be taking you know,
and again I want to throw numbers out there that
(33:18):
are that are that that I'm not sure of. But
when the books are taking well into into the you know,
seven and eight figure categories, they're they're they're going to
do stuff to protect themselves and and your average book
doesn't have those type of liabilities.
Speaker 2 (33:32):
So it's just a volume that the that the some
of the bigger global books do.
Speaker 1 (33:37):
Makes sense, steady, anything else you want to throw out
there before you shut this down.
Speaker 3 (33:42):
So and then let me let me respond a little
bit further to that question, because if you ask me
why books do what they do, a lot of times
I can't tell you, you know, because that's the way
it's been done, that's the way they've always done it.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
That's the way the m O I would not be
shocked to see.
Speaker 3 (34:00):
You know, we saw a bigger movement towards teaser protection
lines in the like that a stretch from like, oh,
the late oughts into the early teens of this century,
from like you know, seven, eight or nine down eleven
and twelve. There was a lot going on in the
teaser world, and the books took a fair beating on
(34:23):
teasers to the wise guys during that span. And that's
when teaser protection lines, you know, it was what really
came into the play. So it's not something I can't
tell you why the books in Vegas don't do it.
But if I'm a bookmaker, I would have no hesitation
seven and a half. Let's go to nine if the
money's coming that way, because in neither eight, eight and
(34:43):
a half nine are our key numbers when it comes
to the NFL.
Speaker 2 (34:47):
So if I was a bookmaker, I do it. It
makes it makes sense to me.
Speaker 3 (34:52):
Anything else that I wanted to say, I don't know
what to say. Thanks for watching. Enjoy check out my homepage.
We see that buzz backslash tc. Give us a like,
give us a follow, give us a comment, Have a
great day, have a great week. We appreciate all of
your support genuinely wagotalk dot com and thanks for watching us.
Speaker 1 (35:12):
For Teddy covers Andrew Martin, that does it, guys, come
back and join us next week. Until then, cash those tickets.
Thanks for tuning in.
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