2025 NFL Season Betting Previews | NFC West & AFC West Team Predictions

How should we be betting the AFC West & NFC West heading into the 2025 NFL Season? Join Drew Martin and Teddy Covers for The Opening Line Report as we dissect the NFL betting market with the 2025 NFL preseason right around the corner.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Report Preview edition.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
I am Drew Martin, joined as always by Teddy Covers.
Getting you ready for the NFL season. Guys, we got
the AFC and NFC West Division previews coming your way,
but without further ado, TC welcome money.

Speaker 1 (00:15):
Happy Monday morning to you, buddy.

Speaker 3 (00:17):
Hey, great to be here, Jew and it's always good
to talk football in June. Why are we talking football now?
The early bird gets the worm, That's why. You know what,
what's the difference between a pro better and a casual better.
A casual better is going to start a look at
this stuff Labor Day, maybe at the beginning of pre season.
A pro better is going to take advantage of this
stuff in May and June and into July when the

(00:39):
odds are what they are, and then the markets haven't
really been flushed into place yet. So we'll pay a
lot of attention to the NFL this month. Obviously, we
did the first preview last week with the AFC and
NFC East. We're doing the AFC NFC West this week.
Next Monday we do the North divisions, and the following
Monday we do the South divisions, all leading up to
the release of my NF Hell Season Win Report. On

(01:01):
July second, a Wednesday, And yeah, I already got that
day circle due. We work on it every day right
now because that report's been you know obviously one oh
three and fifty two and the lifetime of the report
seventeen and four with the big tickets. As a report
the clients look forward to, it's a report I look
forward to, but takes a lot of work. That's why
we're doing it right now in June. So let's roll baby.

Speaker 2 (01:23):
All right, guys starting it off here, we got the
AFC West up first, and we're going to talk to
Denver Broncos playoff team last year finishing ten in seven,
eleven and six, trending towards the over, and a great
team to bet on twelve and five against the spread.
So Teddy, I'll throw it over to you young quarterback,
I guess the athletic quarterback, and hey, pretty good season

(01:46):
last year. Do you think they can carry it over
to twenty twenty five?

Speaker 3 (01:50):
A mile high?

Speaker 1 (01:50):
What do we think in Denver Broncos DC.

Speaker 3 (01:53):
So before I get into Denver, let me just talk
about some very basics as we analyze these two teams.
Right now, AFC teams have an edge over NFC teams
this year when it comes to having higher win totals.
Why AFC teams get nine home games versus eight road games,
NFC teams eight home games versus nine row games. And

(02:14):
it's not a huge difference, you know, but it does
mean that in general, we would be more likely to
play AFC teams over their win total and NFC teams
under their win total. When it comes to who plays
who in divisions, the AFC West plays the AFC South
and the NFC East to the two divisions that they

(02:34):
face off against this year, and when we get into schedules,
we'll talk about each one and the nuances for each team.
The NFC West is going to face the AFC South
and the NFC South arguably two of the weakest divisions
in the league, So advantage NFC West teams when it
comes to strength of schedule this year, even though they
have only eight home games compared to nine road games.

(02:56):
There's one other thing I want to talk about at
the top, and this is data from Ralph Michael's again
at cal Sports LV on Twitter and Ralph's you know
long term database stuff is so strong I want to
share it when I get it and These are two
issues when you talk about the highest teams and the
lowest teams. Win totals in the NFL of ten or

(03:17):
higher since twenty fifteen sixteen cashes on overs in fifty
one tries sixteen to twenty eight and seven pushes, so
the highest win totals not been good bets to go
over the totals so ten plus the lowest win totals
win totals of five and a half are lower. Seven

(03:38):
cashes on overs in twenty two tries during that span
seven twelve and three to the under. So the highest
teams and the lowest teams when it comes to totals
over the last decade have not been good for over betters.
They've both been good for under better. So two things
worth noting at the top. Let's talk about the Denver

(04:01):
Broncos currently lined. I'm seeing mostly there's nine and nine
and a halfs for Denver out there in the vetting
marketplace right now, nine being the prevailing number, but there
are certainly nine and a half out there. A team
that made some interesting win now moves this offseason, but
we talked about their starting point last year there were
lined as a six win team. They went ten and

(04:23):
seven the year before lined as an eight and a
half win team, finished eight and nine, five and twelve
the year before that, nine and seven, sorry, seven and ten,
the year before that, five and eleven, before that, seven
and nine back in twenty nineteen. So this recent improvement
for Denver is recent franchise was not in great shape

(04:45):
pre Sean Peyton. And of course there's good continuity under
Payton again eight and nine, then ten and seven last
year with the rookie QB and bo Nicks. He's now
in his third year on the job, Joe Lombardi the
offense coordinator, third year on the job, vance Joseph Twitter,
third year on the job. Continuity. Peyton picked the right guys,
he picked his guys and obviously they've all stuck around.

(05:08):
So that's a positive for Denver. When you look at
the arrow pointed upward last year, rookie QB can't be
shocked for a team that went ten and seven. They
went one in five in one score games a year ago,
so that's an area where you would expect at least
some improvement this year. Denver near the bottom of the
one score game category a year ago. Now, two things

(05:31):
that happened last year. That aren't you know, that aren't
necessarily gonna happen this year. One. They were very healthy
last year. They were tied to I think second in
the league for the fewest guys playing in game, not
necessarily the fewest guys lost the injury, but it wasn't
like they had to play eighty highs during the course
of the season. So they were fairly healthy last year,
and also last year notably easier than average schedule top

(05:54):
quartile based on my Powerty numbers when it came to
the easier schedules in the league. So the way I
do schedule is not the standard way. I use my
Paring numbers the week the game was played, and I
find that to be a really valuable tool as I
break down these teams, because I'm not looking at any mainstream numbers.
I'm not looking at what the record was at the
end of the season. I'm looking at where was this team,

(06:16):
how good was their opponent the week they played them
and you had them up. You figure out some pretty
good strength of schedule differences. So Denver faced a relatively
easy schedule last year. Now, the Broncos came into the
offseason and where they have thirty two million in dead
money remaining and from Russell Wilson's contract, so they still
had salary cap issues from Wilson, so it wasn't like

(06:36):
they could go crazy in free agency. That being said,
a couple of big moves, you know, if the guys
can stay healthy in that regard, Drake Greenlaw and talanoa
Hufanga from San Francisco, the linebacker and the safety, and
they're big moves. I mean, these are two guys who
have played four titles and the Titaningram is supposed to

(07:00):
be an impact player for this offense, especially when talking
about a young QB in bow Knicks. They re signed
DJ Jones. That was the big re signing in the
offseason at defensive tackle, and of course in the draft
they went cornerback, running back, wide receiver with their first
three picks. The quarterback to Hottie Barron out of Texas
gives them a secondary that looks really good on paper.

(07:22):
A couple of edge rushers as well from LSU and
Alabama Robinson and Jones in the third and fourth round
that could have an impact for them now. And I
like the running back R. J. Harvey as well. The
kid at a UCF you know. I mean they went
into the draft with issues at running back, receiver, and cornerback,
and that was their first three picks running back, receiver,
and quarterback. So they did, I think, a pretty good

(07:43):
job of feeling their roster needs. When it comes to
the schedule this year, again AFC West teams play and
AFC South and NFC East, Denver's three extra games Cincinnati,
Green Bay, and the Jets, So medio. When it comes
to how tough it is, they gets fairly. They got

(08:04):
a chance for a good start. They got the Giants,
the Jets, the Colts, and the Titans all in the
first seven weeks of the season. The close out for
Denver's kind of tough KC at Washington, at Vegas, Green Bay,
Jacksonville at KC and the Chargers. So there's a chance
this team can get off to a hot start and
then stumble a little bit down the stretch. That would
be a concern if I like Denver over their win total.

(08:26):
But in general, arrows pointed upwards for the Broncos. Even
though I do have some concerns and they're certainly not
being priced as a immediate routine, They're being priced as
a playoff contender in the marketplace for twenty twenty five.

Speaker 1 (08:40):
TC is ready to go early on a Monday jam.

Speaker 2 (08:44):
Packed analysis there on the first team, and I'll second
one thing, guys, a quick hot take off the top.
Teddy talked about the strength of schedule and his numbers.
I will say this, he gave himself a little bit
of a boost. I'm gonna give you more of a boost.

Speaker 1 (08:58):
TC.

Speaker 2 (08:59):
You do bring a lot of other good analysis, but
I love hearing that, like what week they played.

Speaker 1 (09:05):
Them, who was injured?

Speaker 2 (09:07):
And when you throw out your numbers, guys, if you're
new to betting the NFL, you can kind of get
a huge advantage.

Speaker 1 (09:13):
I've used that in my handicapping.

Speaker 2 (09:15):
So I definitely tune in when Teddy brings up his
personal strength of schedule because that's kind of like proprietary
information that you can get an advantage in my opinion
in the betting market.

Speaker 1 (09:27):
So Teddy, I wanted to throw that out for you.
But getting back to the.

Speaker 2 (09:31):
Teams here, we got next team up Kansas City Chiefs,
of course, winning the AFCUS fifteen and two last year,
although just eight and nine against the spread. You might
remember towards the middle of the season, it was really
a rough stretch against the spread for the Chiefs, slightly
under trenders. And of course I got to bring up
Super Bowl losers last.

Speaker 1 (09:50):
Season, so Teddy, I'll bring it up, Teddy, excuse me.

Speaker 2 (09:54):
Kansas City Chiefs twenty twenty five team preview here.

Speaker 3 (09:58):
Yeah, Chish line that very much. Eleven and a half
is the prevailing number. A little bit of juice to
the under at some books for Kansas City. And again,
if you want to talk about a coach who you're
gonna lose money but against when it comes to underseason wins,
Andy Reid in Philadelphia, and he was in Philadelphia from
ninety nine to twenty twelve. This guy's been a head

(10:19):
coach forever. My entire time in Vegas, Andy Reid's been
a head coach, and in Philadelphia, I think each of
his last ten years he had a winning he went
over the win total. Look at you, what are you
doing in Kansas City? Again, they were eleven and five
last year or lined at eleven and a half wins
last year that went fifteen and two. They were lined
at eleven eleven and a half year before they went

(10:39):
eleven and six, either lose by a half game or
push fourteen and three the year before that, twelve and
five before that, fourteen and two, twelve and four. Hard
to play unders with Andy Reid teams. Andy Reid's the
most excess you know, he's when it comes to regular
season success, he's second to none in the modern year. Obviously,
now in his thirteenth season in Kansas City, Matt Nagy's

(11:00):
back is the OC Spags is back as seventh year
as a defense correador. You talk about their point spread
failures last year, and of course Casey went eleven and oh,
eleven and oh in one score games. And when you're
playing in Super Bowls every year, the most public team
in the league, et cetera, et cetera, and you're playing
eleven to one score games, you ain't covering those spreads

(11:22):
or a lot of them. And certainly that was the
case for Casey a lot of more. I believe they're
the most win slash no covers than any team in
the league. Before I talk about some of the additions
and subtractions in the offseason. If you want to ask
for one simple favor for you guys, if you like
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click right now done, problem solved. Thank you. If you

(11:45):
want to comment below, we appreciate all the comments, and
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do every Monday right now eight a m. Pacific time,

(12:06):
eleven Eastern For Kansas City additions, not much. I mean,
this is a team that has significant salary cap issues
where you restructure Patrick Mahomes where a four hundred and
fifty eight million, four and fifty million deal that are restructured,
Chris Jones with one hundred and fifty eight million dollar
deal and resigned, Nick Folton, resigned, Tray Smith all you know,

(12:29):
big money deals. There's depth issues for Kansas City right now,
and there's offensive line issues for Kansas City as well.
You lose Joe Thuny obviously, church On Watton, Justin Reid,
a couple of key defensive bodies, force bags and read
but in general, you know, this team has done a
good job of avoiding roster holes. And then again this year.

(12:53):
I mean you look at the draft. Josh Simmons, the
offensive from Ohio State with the first round pick. These
tackle Omar Norman, a lot out of Tennessee, the age
rusher out of Louisville a lot with the first three picks.
Noel Williams of cornerback. These are and Royals the receiver
out of Utah State. It could be an interesting factor
for Casey top five picks. I thought they drafted to

(13:14):
Need fairly well. But I've got concerns about Kansas City
when it comes to the defensive depth chart. Again, this
is not a team with salary cap room. This is
not a team that can withstand a whole lot of injuries.
I've got every bit as big concerns about the Chiefs
offensive line. I mean, I could go through, I got
all this stuff written here. I don't have time to

(13:34):
go through at all. But there are significant questions about
both the offensive line, the starters and the depth behind
those starters. And of course, last year, you know they
were when it came to receiving Corey, it was like
Xavier Worthy and who else they brought back Juju Smith Schuster,
It brought back Hollywood Brown, But the key is kind

(13:57):
of like Rushi, Rice and Sky Moore, two guys who
missed last year with injury and other issues. If those
two can come back and be legit weapons for Kansas
City and the offensive line can hold up for Patrick Mahomes,
this team's likely to be every bit as good as
they've been in recent years. But there's more questions about

(14:18):
the Chiefs again. Ol questions, wide receiver questions, depth questions,
defensive questions. If this team has some injuries, there could
be issues this year. Even though Andy Reid's track record
when it comes to win totals, I don't play him.
Under the schedule for Kansas City, AFC West versus AFC
South and NFC East, three extra games for KC Baltimore, Detroit,

(14:43):
Buffalo Ouch, that's tough. And of course you look at
the schedule for the Chiefs a little bit front loaded.
The Chargers, the Eagles, the Ravens, the Lions all in
the first six weeks, and Washington and Buffalo before the
week ten. Buy don't be surprised if Kansas City doesn't
get off to a great start in twenty twenty.

Speaker 2 (15:02):
Five, Teddy, next team up. We got the bottom of
the division. Last year. We got the AFC West Las
Vegas Raiders four in thirteen, seven and ten against the
spread nine and eight slight over trenders. Tough year on
the desert. But Las Vegas Raiders, you think they can

(15:22):
bounce back here off the four and thirteen season.

Speaker 3 (15:25):
I mean, the Raiders has been bad for a long time,
all right, four and eleven. Last year they were lying
to the six and a half win team eight and
nine the year before, six and eleven stayed under the
win total that year by a couple of wins. You know,
they had the one good year, what was it in
two thousand and one, but we went ten and seven.
But eight and eight before that, seven and nine before that,
it's been mediocre or worse for Vegas for what since

(15:48):
rich Gannon retired. I mean it feels like the Raiders
has been twenty something years of futility four Vegas And
you look at their win total this year, mostly six
and a half out there there are some sevens with juice,
and they've taken over money so far, and I understand
why they've taken over money. There's a couple of reasons
that really point towards not an elite season for Vegas,

(16:12):
but a better season than last year for Vegas. Obviously,
they were minus sixteen in turnover deferential last year. Only
Cleveland was worse minus sixteens a lot. When it comes
turn of prential. Vegas recovered only twenty four percent of
the fumbles that hit the ground last season, eight of
thirty three. That's the worst recovery rate of any team
since twenty eleven. All right, they were healthier than the

(16:34):
average team last year, but they had only four players
start off seventeen games. And the guys that got hurt
for Vegas last year were like their best players. It
wasn't like they were losing guys at the back end
of the roster. You know, Christian Wilkins got hurt, Max
Crosby got hurt, Nate Hobbs got hurt. You know. Now

(16:55):
you bring in Pet Carroll, you bring in Kip Kelly,
you bring in a Patrick Graham, the defense corner is
back for his fourth season. But you bring in Geno Smith,
and all of a sudden, the team with a head
coach question mark and quarterback question mark doesn't have that.
They've got a quarterback and established quarterback, a veteran quarterback.
They have a head head coach's won everywhere he's been.

(17:18):
Those are positives when it comes to the floor for
the Raider. And again, you know, they lose a mooring
on defense. It's plain on defense and hobbs they got.
They have some holes to fill, but their starting quarterback
is set, their coach is set. And you know, here's
a quote from the GM. Our expectation is we want
people to be here when people once they get here

(17:39):
to want to stay here. A lot of character guys
they signed in free agency, really and I thought that's
a positive, you know for a team that, let's face it,
you know, when it comes to culture, they have been
at the bottom of the NFL for quite some times.
So the biggest takeaway that I have for the Raiders

(17:59):
off and again, I asked in John Ty from Boise State.
With the top pick, that's a win now pick. You know,
everything that I see from the Raiders. Jack bets the
number two pick, and then you know, loaded up in
the third round to offensive linemen and a cornerback. I
feel like the Raiders this offseason, their ceiling isn't very high,

(18:22):
but their floor is much higher than it's been. The
moves they made this offse either not hey, we're gonna
win the Super Bowl moves, it's hey, we're tired of
being a last place team moves, and that's meaningful. That's
why they're taking over money. Their floor is higher than
it was. And again, when you swap out Antonio Appears

(18:43):
for Pete Carroll, when you swap out Aidan O'Connell and
Garner Minshew for Gino Smith, those are upgrades. Now there
are some negatives for the Raiders, some significant negatives. They
have the single worst net rest disadvantage in the NFL. Somehow,
some way, the league always finds a way to screw
the Raiders minus nineteen days in net rest disadvantage. Put

(19:04):
that in perspective, only three teams are worse than minus
seven when it comes to net rest disadvantage. So week
after week, the Raiders are playing, or they're on a
short week, their opponent isn't their opponent's off of bye,
they're not. But there was only three teams worse than
minus seven, the Saints and the commanders of the other two.
The Raiders dead last when it comes to net disadvantage

(19:25):
for rest AFC West versus AFC East, AFC West versus
AFC South, and NFC East opponents this week the three
extra games for Vegas Patriots, Bears, Browns. Patriots and Bears
are supposed to be better. Whether they will be is
another question. Brown's not so much but not impossible to

(19:47):
win games, and they do have lots of winnable home games,
you know, look at them down the stretch, Chicago, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Dallas, Cleveland,
the Giants. Those are winnable home games. That being said,
how much home field edge the Raiders have well, two
and six on this field last year straight up, So
the home field edge for the Raiders has not been
as good as it's cracked up to me. And of

(20:09):
course you're talking about a destination location and a team
that doesn't have a ton of season ticket holders. Put
those two factors together, and just about every opponent that
comes to Allegiance Stadium has had significant crowd support. The Raiders, yeah,
they have crowd support, but it's not one of these
stadiums that they're the only team that's getting crowd support

(20:31):
game in and game out.

Speaker 2 (20:33):
Teddy liked the breakdown, Man, and guys, any questions fire
away in the comments. I know it's Jude and we're
talking the NFL, but we haven't had many comments.

Speaker 1 (20:41):
Are questions? Excuse me? The first couple couple shows here.

Speaker 3 (20:45):
So we'd love to have some.

Speaker 1 (20:46):
We'll answer them on the show.

Speaker 2 (20:47):
But Teddy, just to give you a break, because you're
doing some great analysis on these teams, Man, my notepad
is full here. In terms of the home field advantager
there in Las Vegas, I know we're doing the show
for the sports betters, but I guess it could have
an impact on betting the Raiders.

Speaker 1 (21:04):
Do you think the home field advantage, in your opinion.

Speaker 2 (21:07):
Is due to Las Vegas in general? Or do you
think it's because the team hasn't been that great therefore
people aren't showing up. If you had to choose kind
of one or the other, where do you think it
falls on the spectrum like if they had a better team,
would they have.

Speaker 1 (21:22):
A better home field advantage? And how much would that be?

Speaker 3 (21:26):
Yes, if they had a better team, I mean Vegas
a front runner town. You know we want to you
know that being said, opponents plan trips to Vegas based
on the weekend that their team's playing. You know, when
Cleveland comes out here, it's gonna be all that stadium
will be full of Browns fans, all right. If the

(21:46):
Raiders were better, fewer people might sell their tickets on
the resale market, I guess, but I think there will
the fact that this is a destination location almost ensures
that the Raiders' opponents will always have some crowd support,
or will generally have some crowd support. And I would say,

(22:08):
you know, the NFL in general doesn't have a big
home field edge anymore. You know, if you're pricing into
more than two and a half points at the most,
you know, I would never price it more than two
and a half. I mean two two and a half.
You can make an argument that's one one and a
half and the Raiders would be in the one one
and a half category. For how much I am an
adjust for home field, there's not a huge edge in that.

Speaker 2 (22:28):
Regard, okay, And for just just for college football, how
high would you go with home field advantage?

Speaker 3 (22:36):
Some of them are worth you know, the Penn State
whiteout games worth five or six, you know, But I
also over the years, my home field edge across sports
less and less and less and less, you know, and
really five or six in my mind's a lot for college.
You know, there's not there's not a lot of teams
in and even in the modern era, i'd hesitate to

(22:59):
go above four.

Speaker 2 (23:01):
All right, Teddy, Well, we got a next team up
here in the AFC West. We got the LA Chargers,
of course, a playoff team last year. Eleven and six
straight up, great team to bet on. I'm seeing twelve
and five against the spread, slight under trenders eight to
nine towards the under. So we got almost, said San
Diego Chargers. By the way, Teddy, I mean it is
June and we're talking NFL. I don't know how many

(23:22):
years it's been, but for some reason that that city
in this team kind of stick in my mind.

Speaker 1 (23:27):
But we got the Chargers of Los Angeles.

Speaker 3 (23:30):
Next team up, sure, I almost say the Open Raiders.
So we're even. And I saw something pop on the screen.
I don't know if you know, somebody asking me about
defensive Player of the year odds. All right, thank you, Parling.
In Vegas, there are bad bets and there are miserable bets.
When you have fifty guys or one hundred guy listed
and you're trying to pick the one. Good luck, good luck.

(23:55):
I don't bet those kind of futures never, you know,
And if I did, I'd only be looking at what
I would consider to be a very live long shot
one hundred and one, one hundred and fifty to two
hundred and one, someone who doesn't deserve to be pricing
that range. But those bets don't win, and there's no
way to hedge it at the end of the season,
there's no you know, it's it's very difficult to pick

(24:17):
that needle out of the haystack. Just say, anyone's betting golf,
all right, You know golf. The guys that make money
are betting top tens, they're butt in top twenties, they're
betting the matchups. But you don't get any of that
for defensive Rookie of the year, Offensive rookie of the year.
So it's not a bet that I would make. It's
not a bet that I would recommend anyone make. It's
a losing ROI on that type of wager, in my opinion,

(24:40):
So I'm sorry, I can't give you a recommendation. It's
not a bet I would even consider. Now, let's talk
about the LA Chargers since twenty nineteen, Well, they went
eleven and six last year. Line is the nine win team.
Prior to that five and twelve, ten and seven, nine
and eight, seven and nine, five and eleven, they've been
largely mediocre. Last year they were pretty good. They were

(25:01):
a playoff team. Jim Harbour in a second season on
the job, Greg Roman back to the offense, coiner Jesse
Minter back to the defense corner. We liked the first
year head coach whose coordinators both come back. It means
he picked the right guys. And of course this year
LA lined pretty much nine and a half across the board,
pretty close to minus one ten either way. Last year

(25:24):
four LA couple things really worked in their favor plus
twelve turnover margin. Only Buffalo and Pittsburgh were better in
that regard, so they were on the right side of
the turnovers and strength to schedule last year much easier
than average. Based on my numbers, I had them with
the bottom four schedule strength schedule out of thirty two teams,

(25:45):
so they faced a lot of the right teams at
the right time last year, and they finished with the
plus twelve turner margin. So both those teams. Both those
things worked in their favor in that regard in either
guaranteed dad happen again this year. Off season moves, I mean,
you know what their Chargers did. They got bigger. You know,

(26:07):
Becton is the big free agent signing out of the guard,
Najie Harris at running back a monster, Mike Williams at
receiver a monster. After being with the Jets and the
Steelers last year, I lost a couple of key guys
on defense, puting the forward Christian Fulton. But you know
they have They went to the off season needing line
help and receiver help and they got some of that,

(26:30):
you know, certainly, And you resign Kaleil Mack, You're bringing Beckton,
you know, re signed Bozeman. They're a team that they're
massive in the interior. And then the guys they picked
Omari and Hampton out of North Carolina. This team has
a million running backs. Uh. And what did Garbo want
to do last year? He wanted a ground and pound

(26:51):
ground and pound, but the off the line wasn't good
enough to do it. They didn't have enough healthy backs
to do it. So that's kind of what hurt their
offen especially down the stretch last year. The mentality for
LA hasn't changed. They want to ground and pound, They
want to wear you out with the running game. That
sets up the defense to be fresh in the fourth quarter,
sets up the Herbert to make throws downfield in the

(27:11):
fourth quarter. But it's certainly a team that wants to
outphysical you. And you know, Joey Bosa gone in the offseason,
but this is not a team that's likely to, you know,
going to be a big spenders in free agency. They
haven't been big spenders in free agency. They have cap space,
which means that they can make moves now as the

(27:32):
season approaches, but certainly when it comes to downfield threats
for the passing game, that's probably the biggest question mark
for this team. You know, Lad McConkie and who We'll
see if Williams can step up. From a schedule standpoint,
the AFC West places the AFC South and the NFC East,
they're three extra games Miami, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, all teams that

(27:55):
are expected to be decent or good tough close out
for the Chargers down the stretch, Philly at Kansas City,
at Dallas, Houston, Denver. Five potential playoff teams in the
last five ball games. But after Week one, man, it's
pretty easy through the buy the case. In week one
there are three toughest opponents, all coming home Denver, Washington, Minnesota,

(28:16):
and every other team that they face through their Week
twelve by after Kansas City is a team lined of
five hundred or worse. So there's room for the Chargers
to have a good start to the season and perhaps
that momentum will carry them in December when the schedule
toughens up.

Speaker 2 (28:33):
Guys, we've reached the halfway point of this show as
we head to the NFC side of things. But a
reminder check out Teddy Covers twenty twenty five NFL season
win report.

Speaker 1 (28:44):
It is up and available.

Speaker 2 (28:46):
Does include seventeen and four eighty one percent on his
five percent big tickets over the last twenty five years.
So Teddy Covers Season Win total report is a good
one to get. It is one that I use personally
in my betting. But we got the NFC West up
next year Teddy Arizona Cardinals first team up eight to

(29:07):
nine last year eleven and six against the spread money printers,
and I got them eight eight and one over under,
So Arizona Cardinals.

Speaker 1 (29:16):
What are we thinking in the desert?

Speaker 3 (29:17):
Yeah, and just to talk about the season winter report
for WES one more moment before we talk about Arizona again,
we one O, three and fifty two since twenty twenty one.
That's the type of tracker and says, yeah, I can
lock up some money betting this stuff. And obviously seventeen
to four with the big tickets. That report will come
out Wednesday, July second. You can re purchase it now

(29:38):
on my page ww buzz backslash TC. I would encourage
you not to do that and get on board with
any extended package. It comes for free. If you're a
long term client. You can get an NFL season package
right now. You can get a three month all access
package right now. The one month all access is a
great pass. It is a great deal. Right now, you're
getting two weeks for free. By two weeks, get two
weeks free, essentially thirty days all access from wager talk

(30:02):
dot com. Again, visit my pagewt dot buzzbackslash TC and
sign up for this package. It's a good one in
my opinion, and my opinion's right on this again. You
see the work I'm putting in in June. You understand
that the reporter has had this track record because I
put in this type of work every year. This year
hasn't changed. I expect to win. We won last year.

(30:24):
We won with the Arizona Cardinals. Last year we had
Arizona over their season win total. They were lined at
six and a half wins. They finished eight and nine,
coming off a four and thirteen season and a poorn
thirte season four and thirteen season the year before that,
so they back to back disaster campaigns. Last year they
were better and my class and I cashed over tickets
with the Cardinals. There's coaching continuity here. Head coach Jonathan

(30:47):
gannon offcorter Drew Petsig, defense coinner Nick Raalis, all back
for their third season together. We liked that when the coach,
you know, the arrows pointing upward, the coach hired the
right guys. This coordinator's coming in and they had a
brutal schedule last year and those six toughest schedule in
the NFL based on the numbers, my party numbers the
week the game was played. And you know again, I

(31:11):
think that's in my opinion, valuable info this year lined
eight and a half wins. Really, I'm seeing not much juice.
I'm seeing a plus one hundred and I'm seeing a
minus one twenty if you shop around, depending on which
way you're looking, but in that range. But they're lined
right at five hundred, and they made some win now
moves this offseason. That defense, which wasn't great last year.

(31:35):
You bring in Josh Sweat, You're bringing Dalvin Tomlinson. You know,
you're bringing a King Davis Gather all of a sudden,
that's three meaningful veterans on devend. I know they lost
three four line you know, but Sweat makes the pass
rush better. Domin's the defensive anchor. And there's still some
you know, holes for this team. But again, and Sweat

(31:56):
of course played with Gannon in Philadelphia. So I mean
this defense is primed to make a Buddh Baker. If
Garrett Williams, who has become really good at the cornerback,
Calias Campbell comes over from Miami, you know, the first
rounder Walter Nolan from Mississippi at defensive tackle. You know,

(32:17):
the cornerback Will Johnson with the second round pick, the
edge rusher Jordan Bush out of Birch out of Oregon.
You know, so they're still young and the defense is
relying on a lot of new faces. But I would
not be surprised at all as this defense makes a
pretty big jump in twenty twenty five. I do still worry,

(32:37):
you know. I mean Kyler Murray from a chemistry standpoint.
Last year that wen't talked about. He spent the off
season in the training facility and everyone. You know, he
was showing the leadership that maybe he hadn't shown earlier
in his career. I've continued to hear good things about
Murray this past off season. Certainly Arrow pointed upward for him,
perhaps a guy who's kind of fallen into a little

(32:58):
anonymity after making some noise early on from a and
I do worry about there. You know, it's not a
team that's loaded with receivers. You know, Marvin Harrison junior,
Michael Wilson and question marks and again Wilson Harrison junior.
They'd be great in a loaded corps, but if they're
the top two guys, that's a that's a question. And

(33:19):
Harrison last year, you know, was good rookie season, but
not you know, we couldn't carry the offense schedule wise,
NFC West versus AFC South and NFC South again two
of the weakest divisions out there. There are three extra
games Green Bay, Dallas, Cincinnati. Nothing easy there. Look at
the start. They got New Orleans, Carolina, a San Francisco

(33:42):
team that has question marks, Seattle team that's not loaded, Tennessee,
Indy their first six games. Arizona could be one of
these surprise teams we're talking about mid October after the
bye though week eight. Look at their road games at Dallas,
at Seattle, at Tampa, at Houston, at Sincy, at the Rams.
None of them are easy. So Arizona was a real

(34:04):
good road team last year, better on the road than
they were at home, or it was from a points
bread standpoint. They will be rolled underdogs repeatedly down the
stretch this year and have a chance to see if
they could work that same magic on the highway in
twenty twenty five.

Speaker 2 (34:20):
Next team up the team that finished a top the
NFC West standings, the LA the LA Rams here ten
and seven straight up, nine and eight against the spread,
slight under trenders eight and nine towards the under. So
we got the Rams, winners of the West last year.
What are we thinking in twenty twenty five DC.

Speaker 3 (34:40):
Yeah, Rams, there is a split line on the RAMS.
You can find him at nine and a half and
lay some juice. You can find him at ten at
more like minus one ten with a win total. By
the way, this is kind of an important factor to
note when you're talking about locking off your money for
an extended period of time. I generally would rather lay
a little bit of juice and give myself a number

(35:01):
to win on. So I'd rather take nine and a
half with juice and let me win on ten, then
not lay the juice, play the ten at even money
or minus one ten and push on that. I'm much
more likely to try to get if I get a
win number versus if I get a push number. So
it's a difference between nine and a half and ten,
then it would be at nine versus nine and a half.

(35:23):
Does that make sense? I think it does. I hope
I made that point appropriately. But the bottom line is
I want my win number to actually win so they
get to ten. I'd rather And again, if you want
to play this, a lot of the books are having
alternative win numbers win totals, and you can get a
nice payback if you ask a team to win a

(35:44):
game or two or three more than their win total,
and I wouldn't argue with small bats on those type
of wagers. But for this type scenario, we have a choice.
I can ask them nine and a half with juice,
so I can ask them ten without juice. Fifty cents
equates to about half a win when it comes to juice.
But if the fifty cents is equal, I'll always take
the nine and a half and get the win at ten,

(36:06):
then the push at ten without laying the juice. That's
my two cents. LA rams last year ten and seven,
year before ten and seven, year before five and twelve,
year before twelve and five, the year before ten and six.
They've gone over their win total for the last five years.
The only one in the year they didn't was the
year after they won the Super Bowl when everyone got hurt.

(36:28):
Sean McVay ninth season on the job off in the
quarter met for LA floor third season, keepn swinter Chris
Drulibak for his second season, so there is continuity. Last
year two things that were positives. They did have a
winning record plus three net and one score games eleven
one score games for the Rams last year. Lots of
tight games came out of the wire, and they were
much healthier than the average team a year ago. As well.

(36:49):
They did some changes when it comes to receiving corps
Cooper Cup Bye bye DeMarcus Robinson, Bye bye Devonte Adams
comes in Pohen, the four comes in a defensive tackle.
They lose Bobby Brown. So a free agency I felt
like they just replaced guys that they lost. You know,
the goal in free agency upgrade wide receivers, give the

(37:10):
defensive line some credit. But again, this is a team
that ten of their twelve highest paid players are on offense,
all right, So really they haven't spent a lot of
money on defense, and they've been able to not spend
a lot of money on defense. They've drafted very well
and put a lot of draft resources in that regard,
but they lost multiple starters along the front seven, Michael Hawk,

(37:33):
Christian Rose Boom, Bobby Brown. I wonder if they're still
gonna make moves because it feels to me like their
defense a little bit light and they haven't put a
lot of resources in that regard. The restructured Matthew Stafford's contract.
You know, I talked about the signings, but most of
what they did this offseason was restructuring and resigning the
guys that they had. Didn't have a first round pick.

(37:55):
They got Terrence Ferguson the tight end out of Oregon
with their second round or the edge rushers Stewart at
a Michigan third rounder. Is not an impactful draft in
my opinion. So they didn't have an impactful free agency,
didn't have an impactful draft. They do have a veteran
quarterback who's got to win now. You know, it's not
like this team's playing for the future with Stafford at QB.
How many years of Stafford have left? Not much. They

(38:17):
do have some real advantages when it comes to the
schedule wise top five and net rest this year NFC
West again, they face AFC South and NFC South. You know,
they got Houston, Tennessee and Indie in the first four weeks.
They got a chance for a hot start. But after Thanksgiving,
played four to five on the road. The only home
game is Detroit. That's not going to be an easy stretch.

(38:38):
They're three extra games Philly, Baltimore, Detroit, Ouch. That's what's
that's what a first play schedule to do for you,
and you know, no easy task in that regard for LA.
So even though theyir top five and net rest advantage
their schedule ittseelven. Even though again they can play AFC

(38:59):
South and NFCU not the two toughest divisions, there are
still plenty of issues with LA when it comes to schedule,
both in their extra games, and it turns the late
season stretch that give me some concern about a team
that's been consistently good throughout the McVeigh era.

Speaker 2 (39:16):
We got next team up finishing a bottom of the
NFC West, the San Francisco forty nine ers six and eleven,
straight up, just five and twelve against the spread money
burners here at TC they were over trenders. But what
are we thinking here for the forty nine ers. Can
they bounce back off of a tough season?

Speaker 3 (39:35):
Yeah so San fran you know, the Marcus certainly think
they will. He lined at ten slash ten and a half,
ten and a half to plus money, but there's still
ten's out there right now. And again last year they go,
they were lined at eleven and a half wins to
finish six and eleven, you know, five and a half
wins below their season total. But before that twelve and five,
thirteen and four, ten and seven, they had the six

(39:56):
and ten. Year after the Super Bowl lost thirteen and three,
so they, you know, been whatever. This has been an
elite franchise for much of the John Lynchier, certainly since
the brock Purty came on board. Kyle Shanahan, in his
ninth season on the job, he calls his own plays
OFFENSEI co winter Robert Sala, the Jets former head coach,
he was defense whinner here before he got the Jets

(40:16):
coaching coaching job. I considered him an upgrade at defense
cornador and certainly someone who the forty nine ers are
relying on in terms of divining him some better schemes
than they had last year when a lot of things
went wrong. And what went wrong in last year? Look,
there were minus ten and turnovers all right, bad two
and five and one score games, bad, bottom five in health.

(40:40):
You know, lots of different players had to get into
the lineup for San Frandon last year and end based
on my numbers, the game the week was played the
week the game was played, second hardest schedule in the NFL.
When your minus ten turnovers, your minus three and one
score games, your bottom five in health. I know he
faced the second hardest schedule in the league based on
my numbers. Of course you're gonna have a disappointing campaign,

(41:01):
and they did. The question is can they bounce back
you know, off season moves, and again the main objective
this offseason was clear the books of a bunch of
bad contracts, you know, and basically they let all their
chief free agents go. Deebo Samuel got you know, released,
Jason Hargrave got released, MALIEK. Collins and Leonard Floyd. I mean,

(41:26):
you know, huge names gone for and when we look,
I mean you think about who they've lost the last
couple of seasons. Mike mcclinch Chase Young, Eric Armstead, Aaron Banks,
Drake Greenlaw, you know, uh Teleonohufanga to various war Jalen Moore, Hargrave,
Samuel Yes, some got old, Yeah, someone' is good, some

(41:48):
got hurt. But that's a boatload of talent for any
team to lose in the midst of their Super Bowl window.
That being said, you think about it, that was kind
of always the plan from when they drafted member. Trey
Lance was the guy and perty was the afterthought, but
that we're gonna have to pay Lance. This past year
it was the same. So the thought process, even though

(42:10):
Perdy got the money and not Lance got the money,
they've been planning for this. This is the good organization
in that regard, and I'm gonna call them the opposite
of New Orleans. New Orleans is where they are right now,
and they're gonna be this way for another couple of
years because every year when it came to salary cap,
eachure that just kicked the can down the road. Restructure

(42:30):
the veterans kick the can down the road, and now
you know, you have a huge salary cap implications as it.
And the Niners didn't do that. The Niners just last
off season they're like, no, we ain't kicking no can.
We're gonna deal with it now. And that's what they've done.
So there are a lot of big names that are
gone that may not be replaced by names that are

(42:53):
every bit as big. There's certainly when you talk about
question marks. And again, I love their draft, even though
they you know, I love that they drafted to need
top five players on the defense side of the football.
Michael Williams from Georgia the number one pick the defense
tackle Collins out of Texas the second pick. Nick Martin
often stout, I mean, they really give themselves a nice

(43:14):
talent infusion on the defense side of the football. But
make no mistake about it. You know they lost three
out the four starters on the defensive line. That's an
area of question coming into the season. And of course,
you know in Brock perty gonna be able to live
up that two hundred and sixty five million dollar contract,
even though his receiving core maybe not as talented as
it's been in years past. When it comes to this

(43:38):
year's schedule, top five and net rest advantage, that's a
bonus four. San Francisco, they'll be rested. You know, their
opponents are the ones in the short weeks far more
than the forty nine ers. They face the AFC South
and the NFC South, two of the weaker divisions. San
Franz three extra games, the Giants, the Bears and the Browns.
Two of those three teams are going to be two

(43:59):
of the word teams in the league this year. They
do have three set three sets of back to back
road games the first nine weeks of the season. They
do have a late Week four team by but look
at the schedule down the stretch. You know this is
a five hundred team. Midway through the season. They got Carolina, Cleveland,
Tennessee in EA, Chicago, and Seattle, four of them at

(44:19):
home the last six ball games. San Fran a team
that certainly has a chance if things start out not
as good as expected, they get a chance to make
a late season run and still make the playoffs. And again,
a team that won you know, was a last place
team a year ago and finished six and eleven a

(44:40):
line ten ten and a half wins this year, the
markets expect an immediate turnaround bounce back season for a
franchise that's been very, very good over the better part
of the last decade.

Speaker 2 (44:53):
The on the NFL Opening Line Report Preview edition a
reminder checkout Teddy Covers twenty twenty five NFL Season Win
Total Report one hundred and three and fifty two. That's
sixty six percent winners. We got seventeen and four eighty
one percent on the five percent big tickets. So check
that out Season win Total Report from Teddy Covers. Last

(45:15):
team we're talking here, Teddy Seattle Seahawks ten and seven
straight up. But just six and eleven against the spread
money Burners slightly over trenders at nine and eight over under.
We got a team that finished second here at ten
and seven. Seahawks, last team we're talking.

Speaker 3 (45:32):
Yeah, just to give you guys something actionable for today.
Obviously it's Monday. It's Monday morning here in Las Vegas,
bright and early, not even nine am yet. But the
NBA playoffs have been fantastic and I continue to win
in the finals, four and one of the finals last year,
three and one of the finals this year, twenty and nine.
With the last twenty nine NBA releases, I am in
play for Game five tonight. Let me check that out

(45:55):
again on my pagewt dot buzz backslash TC. The NBA
has been good for the clients. It's been good for
the bank roll throughout the postseason and really for the
last four years, the NBA is up more well over
two under units for the clients and I so check
out the homepage w dot buzz Backs, last TC and
get on board for tonight or any all access pass

(46:18):
that will get you every play every day in every sport. Seattle.
This is the team that has some split numbers or
eight and a half juice to the under. They're seven
and a half juice to the over with the sea bags.
So there's certainly a team that if you shop around
you can find different numbers with Right now, I'm not
convinced that'll be there a month from now. Usually the

(46:39):
markets start to converge in that sense. Certainly, by this August,
we're going to see a Seattle priced uniformly, far more
uniformly than they are right now. Mike McDonald, his second
year as a head coach, brought a new offering curuner.
Clint Kubiak, the DC Aden third ay, is back for
his second season. This team went aligned to seven and
a half wins. Last year they went ten and seven,

(47:01):
lined at eight and a half wins. The year before
they went nine and eight, lined at six wins. The
year before they went nine and eight as well. So
three straight years they've gone over their win total. In fact,
five in the last six years they've gone over their
win total. So Seattle's been relatively profitable for their backers
in that regard. You liked it last year when he
did a Last Week drew when I did a deep

(47:23):
dive on Steve Wilkes as a cordinator that I had
questions about. Clint Kubiak is a guy that I have
questions about. All Right, Remember so Kubiak, you know, daddy
was a coach. He was a fortunate son. Became an
offensive assistant under his dad in two thy and sixteen,

(47:46):
and he became the quarterback coach after Bill Musgrave got
broder office, the coreator when there were issues there. And
then he went to Minnesota and became offense cornator there,
replacing his dad. And then he went back to Denver
and he became a quarterbacks coach under Nathaniel Hackett. And
then Kubiak got the chance to call plays in Denver,

(48:10):
and then it was in San fran as their passing
game coordinator in twenty twenty three, and the Saints hired
him as OC in twenty twenty four, replacing Pete Carmichael.
So he's kind of not lasting long anywhere he's been,
And it feels like I've got questions about Kubiak's ability
to be an elite play caller for Seattle this year.

(48:33):
All of McDonald's of mine that I respect, will see
if Kubiak is a guy that can live up to
those expectations. But this is a team that went through
some big offseason changes. You know, obviously, you know, you
take Geno bye bye, DK Metcalf bye bye, Tyler Lockett
bye bye, and you bring in Sam Donald, who had
a resurgence season last year behind an elite offensive line
and a great coaching staff. Cooper Cup comes in from

(48:55):
La DeMarcus Lawrence comes in as a defensive difference maker.
You know, you resigned Ernest Jones, you reside j'ar On Reid.
But it's not like they had a ton of money
in the off season. In the draft, you know, the
officer of the guard out of North Dakota State, Zabel
in the first round. Not a sexy draft. You know,

(49:17):
safety tight end the second round, picks Jalen Milroe goes
in the third round. If Donald has problems, maybe Milroe.
It's the opportunity this season. But there's big there's it
feels like there's big changes for a team that had
been veteran. Again, you feel like that's gonna happen with

(49:38):
the second year head coach and he's gonna get his
guys in. You know, uh Thomlinson Ghana and replaced by
Zabel on the defensive line, but from an offensive line standpoint,
this team got question marks everywhere. I mean, they really do.
A bunch of off injured guys, a bunch of guys
who you know, uh laid around draft choices they did.

(50:05):
I'm just looking at all these names. I'm not gonna
run through all the names. They've got question marks at
multiple offensive line positions right now, and that's not what
I want. With Darnold coming here for Seattle. I'm not
bullish on the Seahawks in twenty twenty five, I'm really not.
And if you have a top five net rest advantage,
so they're getting teams that are playing on short weeks

(50:28):
and they're not NFC West for SAFC South and NFC
South three extras. None of them are easy Pittsburgh, Washington, Minnesota,
and for a relatively easy schedule, they get a tough start.
So San France at pitt New Orleans, Easy at Arizona,
Tampa at Jacksonville, long trip, Houston at Washington, Arizona, and

(50:49):
the Rams at the Rams. In the first ten games
of this season, I would not be surprised they got
off to a relatively slow start. That being said, they
get Tennessee, Indian Carolina, all down the stretch, a chance
for a better finish than the start to the season.
But Seattle when it comes to twenty twenty five, they're
shortlisted as a team I'm looking to play under their

(51:10):
win total, not a team that I'm excited about when
it comes to their value in the upcoming campaign.

Speaker 2 (51:16):
Makes sense, Teddy and I know we're up against the
time wise, but we were talking about kind of home
road you know, advantages and not being the same as
they have you.

Speaker 1 (51:24):
Know, years ago, particularly in the NFL.

Speaker 2 (51:27):
I am seeing here something that kind of jumped out
at me as the Seahawks, I think a lot of
people would regard, as you know, home field advantage being
one of, if not the highest in the NFL. But
just last season three and six at home, seven and
one on the road. Do you think that's a trend
that could kind of keep going in the future.

Speaker 3 (51:48):
Potentially, Again, they went five and three at home the
year before, five and four at home the year before that.
So we're not talking, you know, the less you factor
in home field, I think, the more successful you'll be.
And one of the as a handicapper and one of
the things that the guys that don't know what to say,
is you know that they're just trying to you know,
Oh I'll make a pick. Oh they're going back home.

(52:08):
Oh they're at home this week. Oh I don't anytime
you hear a freaking analysts say those words, I means
they don't know anything about handicap because the home field
is not it's always priced in and it's not that
big of a deal. You know. It's not like teams
don't win on the road. They went on the road
every year in the NFL. They went on the road
this year in the NFL. So uh so do I

(52:29):
expect to be awful at home? If they're a bad team,
They're gonna be a bad team at home and on
the road. The worst teams, do you love to bet
against them at home because the crowd booze, there's no
home field edge at all, and the opponent's come in
expecting to win those games. I love betting against the
bottom feeders at home, you know, And you're not laying
an extra touchdown to do it, or an extra six
points to do it. So I don't know if it's

(52:51):
a bottom feeder. I don't see them at the you know,
but that a lot a lot of that depends on
Sam Darnold and the and the very dicey offensive line
in front of very dicey.

Speaker 2 (53:05):
I'm picking up what you're laying down there, DC, guys.
A reminder, check out the NFL season win total report
with Teddy covers sixty six percent winners over the last
twenty five years and of course over eighty percent on
the five percent Teddy. Any final thoughts here before we
shut it down.

Speaker 3 (53:20):
Yeah, so, I just want to ask you guys one
more time. If you like this, hit that like button,
give us a comment in the comment section ju and
I'll be in there. We'll respond. You know, you get
to interact. I know, you know we're doing the show live,
but ask us questions. It's fine, you know, tell me
what I'm wrong about. It's okay, nobody gets mad. And
of course, the subscribe to the channel w dot Buzz.

(53:42):
Try the channel. We've done so, visit the web page,
the website, wagertalk dot com. The odds Logic live on screen.
We haven't talked about that. Oslogic dot com backslash Teddy.
Get your free seven day all access trial. Check it
out again. Odslogic dot Com backslash Teddy and that's it.
Man comment below. Thank you have a great day, go

(54:03):
about your business. We've done our work.

Speaker 2 (54:05):
Cheers all right, Teddy, great show guys, coming below, any questions,
your picks as well, any analysis will be in there,
chiming it up with you.

Speaker 3 (54:14):
And I said I'm done, of course, come back next Monday.
Next Monday, we're doing the North AFC North NFC North.
Lots of good teams, lots of playoff contenders in both
of those divisions. I'm excited to talk about them. Eight
am Pacific time, eleven am Eastern Monday morning, bright and early.
We'll do it again next Monday and the Monday after
as well. And if you like this type analysis, tell

(54:36):
your friends. We're really looking to grow this show in
twenty twenty five and you guys can help us.

Speaker 1 (54:42):
So thank you for Teddy covers Andrew Martin.

Speaker 2 (54:45):
A huge shout out to John behind the scenes running
the show. Guys, especially that like button comment below.

Speaker 1 (54:51):
Cash those tickets. We'll be back next week. Thanks for
tuning in.