2025 NFL Season Betting Previews | NFC South & AFC South Team Predictions - NFL Opening Line Report

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
One Your Life.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to the opening Line Report. Kelly Stewart here with
Teddy Covers. We're talking all things South. That's right, finishing
up the month of July, or excuse me, June before
we get into July here and take the month off.
We've got Texans, Colts, Jaguars, Titans, and then of course Falcons, Panthers.

Speaker 3 (00:20):
Saints and Bucks.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Teddy, let everybody kind of know what our schedule is
going to be here over the next month because you're
going on vacation and I'm going to attempt to as well.

Speaker 1 (00:30):
Sure it's that time of year where you have to.
But obviously so we've done This is our fifth show
that we've done here in the month of June. If
you missed any of the first four, be sure check
them out. They're archived, you know, and you can check
them out podcast style as well. Anywhere you download your
podcast you could listen to the audio. But we've done
the AFC West and NFC West previews, AFC East and

(00:52):
NFC East Previews, AFC NFC and North Previews, an overview,
and then obviously today we're doing the souths the Win Report.
My report comes out on Wednesday, July second two days
from now. It's crunch time when it comes to decision
making and of course writing all this stuff up. And
after the Winter Report comes out on Wednesday. For the
month of July, there's nothing going on, so we're not

(01:13):
doing opening line reports. You know, we're not gonna waste
anyone's time. We've done team previews as soon as the
preseason starts. In preseason week one, I think it's the last.
The first July I got it.

Speaker 2 (01:25):
Monday August fourth is when we're gonna be starting right
August August fourth.

Speaker 1 (01:29):
Monday August fourth is the day that we will start
the opening line report up again, and from that date
moving forward, every Monday like clockwork eight am Pacific time
eleven am Eastern Time, right through the Monday after the
Street Bowl. I love to do one show the day
after the stuper Bowl. We talk about all the props,
we talk about next year's lines, teams were looking. You know,
it's a show for whatever reason. I even though everyone's

(01:52):
hung over the day after, I like getting up early
and we're doing one last show. But we'll go from Monday,
August fourth, after today right through the Super Bowl. Each
and every Monday on the way to talk, YouTube channel
and all of our media outlets.

Speaker 2 (02:08):
All right, guys, let's get in here to the AFC South.
We're gonna start off with the Houston Texans up first. Now, Teddy,
this the team last yearst couple of years will say,
maybe took some people by surprise. Right, We're starting to
see some movement within them, and how we kind of
want to see this team going forward. But currently season

(02:32):
wins nine and a half, that over is even money
under minus one, twenty one, fifteen to win the AFC South,
seventeen to one to win the AFC, and thirty five
to one to win the Super Bowl. Let's break down
this Texans team and kind of get into the nitty
gritty of what you think we're going to see here.

Speaker 3 (02:51):
With CJ. Stroud in his third.

Speaker 1 (02:53):
Year, sure, and with all of these team previews, I
start with last year, the starting point from last year,
and then we talked about what happened in the offseason.
We talk about the schedule as well, so lots of
different factors consider for any squad. And of course this
is a Texas team. You mentioned it. They were bottom feeders.
You know, they went four and thirteen and twenty twenty one,

(03:13):
they went three thirteen and one in twenty twenty two.
Cashed under bets in each of those years, although I
think one of them was a push. They were lined
at four wins in twenty twenty one, then as a
six and a half win team in twenty twenty three,
they finished ten and seven flew over the win total.
Last year they snuck over their win total. Nine and
a half wins was where they were aligned. Ten is

(03:34):
what they cashed to mec O'Ryan's now in his third
year as they head coach. New offensive creator Nick Kayley,
he can only be an upgrade over the departed Bobby Slower.
New offensive line coach coach Cole Popovich, and both Kaylee
and pop worked for Belichick in New England, so we're expecting,
at least from a design standpoint, Houston's offense and Houston's

(03:58):
offensive line perhaps to a little bit better than it
was a year ago. Last year, they finished plus ten
in turnovers. That was the seventh best in the NFL. Buffalo, Pittsburgh,
Green Bay, the Chargers, the Vikings, and the Eagles were
all better. They were below average in terms of yards
per play on offense, only five point two yards per
play game, but they had the number four defense in

(04:18):
terms of yards per play allowed five point one yards
per play. So the defense was a big factor in
their relative success last year, and they had the middle
of the pack schedule last year based on My Power
ratings the week the game was played. They weren't a
particularly healthy team last year. Seventy five players suited up
bottom ten in injury luck. And you know, so they

(04:42):
went in the off season going, yeah, we're close, but
last year something of a different point in terms of
being after the breakthrough season in twenty three, twenty four
was not a breakthrough campaign, and of course now they're
zero to six all time. The Divisional round, another early
exit from the postseason. So when it came to the
off season, everyone pointed towards the officeive line for Houston

(05:05):
and as an area of notable weakness. Well, from a
pundit standpoint, everyone's looking at this offensive line going it
looks worse, not better. They traded away Laramie Tunsel. They
brought in some veteran editions who weren't necessarily very good
last year, Laken Thomlinson at Ingram cam Robinson, Trent Brown,
older guys you know, they drafted a tackle in the

(05:28):
second round. That being said, there were many people who
expected this team to really focus on offensive line in
the off season, and it looked like the moves that
they made weren't necessarily moves that impressed pundits. So the
coaching is different, the personnel is going to be different.

(05:50):
But what's the biggest question for Houston. It's the officsive
line right now. Even with Titus Howard, you know, if
he's going to move to left tackle, they're hoping that
it's there's gonna be competition on that line this season.
They've also got issues in terms of the receiving corps.
You know, Steph Diggs is gone, Tank Dell's likely to
miss the season or most of the season with a
knee injury. That being said, still got Nico Collins. They

(06:13):
brought in Christian Kirk from Jacksonville in a trade this
past offseason, and they got a couple of rookies that
they're counting on out of Iowa State, both out of
Iowa State, who have the potential to bring this into
a well rounded unit and in theory might be good.
And defensively, look, this is a dominant defense formidable edge

(06:35):
tandem and Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter sell the rankin stuff,
the run in the middle. You know they're the best
cornerback combo in the NFL. Derek Stingley got a ninety
million dollars extension. See Nate Jardner c J. Gardner. Johnson
came over from Philly in a trade and his quote
is worth noting. Gardner Johnson's quote quote, championship or nothing.
Didn't bring me here to win the division or the conference.

(06:57):
So there's certainly high expectations for Houston. In Houston, even
though the rest of the betting markets not so much.
In that regard. We look at their schedule, and of
course when we talk about schedule, there's four components talked
about last year's strength to schedule, How deserved was their record,
this year's strength to schedule based on this year's win

(07:18):
totals and the composition of the schedule. Easy opponents early
versus easy opponents late is a huge difference in how
the season plays out. And of course we talk about
rest differentials when it is a factor in this situation.
There's not a lot of these that are coming play
for Houston. The AFC South Faces the AFC West and
the NFC West is their two divisions. There are three

(07:40):
extra games Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Buffalo. That's an ouch when
it comes to three tough opponents, especially compared to what
the rest of the division has. And frankly, those three
opponents probably keep me off the Texans over I like
the composition the squad. I think the markets are kind

(08:02):
of undervaluing Houston based on the opposite line concerns. That
being said, for all the concerns about the opposit of line,
it's a team that had a clear plan for what
they wanted to do. Maybe it works out a little
better than the pundits might like to.

Speaker 2 (08:16):
Think today, I'd have to agree with you the benefit
of playing in the AFC South helps this team the
second best team, at least according to Vegas.

Speaker 3 (08:24):
It's going to be, well, oh, this gets tough.

Speaker 2 (08:28):
I'd like to say it's going to be the Indianapolis Colts,
but they're going to say it's the Jaguars.

Speaker 3 (08:32):
But we're gonna get in the Colts here. First seven
and a half is their season win total minus one ten.

Speaker 2 (08:37):
On both sides, plus three point eighty to win the
division fifty to one. To win the AFC Wow plus
twelve thousand to win the Super Bowl. Let's talk about
the Indianapolis Colts.

Speaker 3 (08:48):
Steady sure.

Speaker 1 (08:50):
Last year ligned at eight and a half wins, they
finished eight and nine. The year before they were lined
at six and a half wins, they finished nine and eight.
So seventeen and seventeen for Shane Steichen and now in
his third year as the head coach. We have a
situation where the owner, Jim Orse, died this past offseason.
Now his three daughters take over. What does that mean

(09:12):
He's the coach is on a little bit more of
a hot seat. Perhaps the GM Chris Ballard I would say,
on the hot seat, there's urgency for the Colts this year.
A year ago, five point five yards per play game
on offense middle of the pack, five point five yards
per play allowed on defense, middle of the pack, slightly
below average. They were number twenty four in scoring defense

(09:34):
and number twenty nine in total defense, a number twenty
five in sex so despite having DeForest Buckner a on
the squad unblockable at times. So the defense. Even though
the yards per play defense was okay, some of the
other metrics were not quite so good. For that defense
last year finished minus four in turnovers. Nothing big there,

(09:54):
But here's the interesting factor. They went eight to nine
last year under their season win total. And that came
again I use my powering numbers on the game the
week was played from my strength to schedule numbers. My
strength schedule says that Indy played the third weekest schedule
in the NFL last year. Only Miami and Washington had
it easier. So the fact that they played such an
easy schedule and still finished below five hundred. They were

(10:17):
also healthy last year. You know, they only used sixty
six players, number four in health in that regard, So
they were healthy last year, They had an easy schedule
and they were still a sub five hundred squad. A
coaching standpoint, Jim Bob Cooter back for his third year's
outfense creator the new d C lou Anarumo. He got
a run out of town after a disaster defense in

(10:37):
Cincinnati last year. That being said, Gus Bradley got run
out of town in Indy. So an Arum was the
guy they settled on as DC. You know he has
experienced I'll give him that much. We talked about the
offseason moves. You know they lost some key pieces on
the office of the end defensive line. They bring in
Daniel Jones to battle Anthony Richardson, you know, and there's

(10:59):
talk Jones could start Week one, and Richardson is obviously
the guy with the upside. These are two former first rounders.
Richardson's a guy who indies kind of invested in now
in his third year, fifty point six percent completions, eleven touchdowns,
thirteen interceptions. These are his career numbers. It's now, were
never time for this guy. And the offense is supposed
to revolve around Jonathan Taylor if things break right. You know,

(11:22):
they did lows lose two starters in the offensive line
of thirds coming back from season ending injuries. My mind,
this team is a lot of offensive line question marks.
The receiving corps looks pretty good. You know, I worry
about their depth, but Pittman downs Pierce. That's a nice
one two three at wide receiver and depth. Team's fine
depth depth. When they have receiving core injuries, you don't
tend to see teams lose all their playmakers even when

(11:44):
guys get hurt. Houston last year maybe an exception. They
spend a bunch of free agent dollars to the secondary
on defense, you know most NASA league. Cameron bid them
the safety and Shivarious Ward as well, and of course
to tight end Tyler Warren with the first round pick,
and then a couple of defenders in the second and

(12:05):
third rounder, Ed Rusher and a cornerback Justin Wally out
of Minnesota. So in terms of need, there was certainly
need on defense, and the tight end position has been
a whole As a young QB, whether it's Jones or Richardson,
Jones is still a young QB. They've been a successful starter.
A good tight end is important to have. When we

(12:25):
look at the schedule for this year, there's you know
again AFC South versus AFC West and NFC West teams.
There are three extra games Miami Pittsburgh and they play
Atlanta in Berlin. It's not a brutal schedule off any
stretch of the imagination. And you know, my first lean

(12:45):
was under towards Indy at seven and a half. I'm
not sure I'm going to get there. The number is
just a little bit low for the Colts. There's upside
for this team if things break right. There's downside if
things don't. In my mind, the Colts one of these
squads that if we're paying attention and see which way
the arrow is pointing, might be able to make money
with him once the season starts. Going in into the

(13:06):
preseason expectations, they look mediocre, They're probably gonna be mediocre,
and they might be bad, they might be good. So
when you have those scenario, you tend to tap the
brakes from a there's certainly urgency there, and there's certainly
talent there, but execution wise, I do still have my
concerns about this organization.

Speaker 2 (13:26):
All right, before we get into the Jacksonville Jaguars, Teddy,
right now, you are running a promotion save one hundred
dollars off Teddy's NFL season pass that is good for
one week from today through next Monday, using coupon code
NFL one hundred. All right, Teddy, Jacksonville Jaguars, let's get
into this team. Boy, oh boy, have they been on

(13:46):
kind of well, I'll call it a roller coaster ride.
I mentioned them also having the same season win total
as the Colts seven and a half, but their division
odds are significantly better plus two sixty AFC odds plus
thirty five or thirty five to one, excuse me, and
then eighty to one to win the Super Bowl. I

(14:07):
don't know what to make of this team. I was
betting against him a couple of years ago when I
thought Houston was significantly better. Now, Trevor Lawrence in his
fifth year, what are we going to see from this
team that has had a coaching carousel as of late?

Speaker 1 (14:22):
Sure, before I talk about the Jags that do you
want to mention as you talked about that NFL promo code. Look,
you can buy the NFL win Report. It's one O
three and fifty two lifetime seventeen and four with the
five percent big tickets. And I went back and looked
by the way I had. I have had three losing
seasons two thousand and five, twenty ten, twenty nineteen, and
a couple years where I lost juice. Twenty seventeen, I

(14:44):
went three and three, but I lost to five percent.
I lost some juice in twenty twenty two. Not every
year has been perfect, but one oh three and fifty
two over a twenty four year sample size seventeen and
four with the five percent big tickets. We won last
year on the big tickets last year it's been a
consistently profitable report, even though it has been dominant every year,

(15:05):
and we encourage you to get on board with the report.
It's one ninety nine. If you want to just get
the report, it comes out on Wednesday, but the promo
code NFL one hundred at checkout you get the report
for free. If you want an NFL season pass. I
expect to win in the NFL this year. I expect
to win big in the NFL this year. And if
you want to get on board, take one hundred bucks
off the season package. You'll get the win Report for free,

(15:28):
and you'll get every play every day, all five percents
included from day one of the preseason right through the
Super Bowl. Again, promo code NFL one hundred at checkout.
I encourage you take advantage of that offer. Today we
talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars and it's a team that

(15:49):
with Trevor Lawrence, the expectations have been fairly high. And
yet what have they got three and fourteen, nine and eight,
nine and eight, four and thirteen over the last four seasons,
not exactly lighting it up. Lots of change this offseason.
New GM James Gladstone first year, first time GM. He
worked for the Rams scouting director. He's the youngest GM

(16:11):
in the league. New head coach Liam Cohen, first year,
first time head coach. New often coinator Grant Udinsky, first year,
first time often quittor. He's a twenty nine year old
former Vikings assistant. Now he's often the equator under the
age of thirty. In Jacksonville, new defense commader Anthony Tampanial.

(16:33):
He was worked under Jeff Haffley in Green Bay last year,
first year, first time d C. So a lot of
times you get a rookie head coach, he's going to
bring in a veteran as a veteran coach or veteran coordinator.
That's not the way the Jags went first year, first
time GM head coach oc DC, so that could be

(16:55):
a concern. Fifteen turnovers minus fifteen and turnovers last year
bottom four. Only Cleveland, Tennessee and the Raiders were worse
five point two yards playing offense below average, But the
real problem for this team last year was defensively five
point nine yards per play allowed on defense that's ranked
thirty one out of thirty two NFL teams. Only Carolina

(17:16):
was worse. Strength of schedule a year ago near league average,
So it wasn't like they were getting beat up at
four and thirteen by a tough schedule. It was a
mediocre schedule. Now they were two to nine in one
score games. No team lost more one score games, No
team played more one score games than the eleven that
the Jags played, and they kept on losing them. Middle

(17:38):
of the pack injury wise last year. Nothing to stand
out in that regard. So when it comes to offseason moves,
it's another new offense for Trevor Lawrence. They do have
four new offensive linemen from free agency and one in
the draft. Walker Little, the left tackle, was excellent last year.
The rest of the line was not so much. So
it's a revamped offensive line. Young wide receivers. You have

(18:00):
Travis Hunter, then a number two overall pick, second year
pro Brian Thomas, the free agent edition Diami Brown from Washington.
He's only twenty five. Depth could be a big concern
on this receiving corps and it's still very young. And
it's hard to love this defense. I mean, they signed
help at a bunch of different places, but they didn't
get anybody good necessarily. You know, they bring Hi McCarry

(18:24):
on the asome line, Jordan Lewis at cornerback, Eric Murray
at safety. You know, a lot of deals for second
tier players at reasonable prices. In that regard schedule wise,
AFC South faces AFC West teams and NFC West teams.
The three extra games for Jacksonville, Carolina, Cincinnati and the

(18:47):
Jets compared that with what Houston's got. It's not a
murderer's row. And one thing, you know, Trevor Lawrence, the
league has been kind of promoting him a fair bit.
You know, the jackson have gotten their fair share of
national TV games. Well, the league doesn't seem to care
if they're bad this year. They have one early season
game on Monday Night Football against Kansas City and that's
it for TV games and for night games. When we

(19:09):
look at the schedule, we talk about what happens earlier
versus what happens late. The Jacksonville Jaguars schedule down the
stretch Tennessee, Indy Jets, Denver, Indy, Tennessee last six games,
they get hot, they got a chance to make a
run down the stretch, but that's an if. So there's
hope for the Jags. But this is a team that

(19:30):
I was coming in season with a lot of holes
and a lot of question marks. Despite the new regime
and the in theory top tier.

Speaker 2 (19:38):
Quarterback Teddy, do Tennessee Titans fans have anything to look
forward to? I was just kind of looking at my
notes from last season, and I knew they were abysmal
three and fourteen, But the worst part was is they were.

Speaker 3 (19:51):
Two and fifteen against the spread. Week one.

Speaker 2 (19:55):
They burned me against the Chicago Bears and never looked back.

Speaker 3 (20:00):
This is a really well, let's just get into it.

Speaker 2 (20:04):
Five and a half over minus one fifty is their
season win total, plus six fifty to win the division,
eighty to one to win the AFC, and two hundred
to one to win the Super Bowl. What are some
positive news the Titans fans can look forward to here?
With Will Levis in his third year, So.

Speaker 1 (20:21):
I'll talk about some positive news in theory when it
comes to the offs of line at least there. But
I'm not bullish on Tennessee. Look, this team went three
and fourteen last year. They were lying as a six
and a half win team. They went six and eleven
the year before, aligned to a seven and a half
win team. They went seven and ten the year before
as a nine and a half win team, So three

(20:42):
consecutive unders for the Titans over the last three years
when it comes to their season win total. Brian Callahan,
second year head coach, he calls his own place. Dinard Wilson,
the defense winner, also back for his second year, and
one of the big things about bringing in Brian Callahan
was that you go, you're bringing his dad, you know,
the legendary offsive line coach, Bill Callahan. Well, the also
the line was a disaster last year with Bill Callahan

(21:05):
coaching them. We'll talk about it in a moment. Worth noting.
New Director of Football Operations hired a new GM in
the offseason, Mike bor Borganzi, and when the head coach Callahan,
he's not Borgonzi's guy, So there's urgency for Tennessee. In theory,
we'll see how the relationship matches out between these two players,

(21:29):
these two administrators slash coaches. But it's always a concern
the coach got hired before the GM, the year before
the GM. Sometimes the GM doesn't necessarily take well to
the coach. A year ago, five point er yards were
play on offense, only five teams were worse Chicago, Cleveland,
the Giants, New England, and the Raiders worse offensively than Tennessee.

(21:51):
When it comes to yards per play, they did have
a top ten yards per play defense only five point
two yards per play allowed, so that's certainly a positive
sign from a year ago their dismal record, and that's
why they were so bad against the spread last year
because the wise guys kept on looking at their defense
and going, oh, their defense is good, they'll cover well.
They also finished night in minus sixteen and turnovers a
year ago. Only Cleveland was worse. Strength to schedule in

(22:14):
twenty twenty four was right at league average, middle of
the pack. They went two and five and one score games,
a losing record typical of bottom fears and seventy seven
players shut it up for Tennessee. That's bottom ten in
terms of health and continuity. When it comes to the
off season move well. First of all, Tennessee is not

(22:34):
a destination that players were dying to go to, so
it felt like they overpaid for some of the guys
that they were looking for. The offensive line was a
huge problem a year ago. Now you've got three veterans
Lloyd Kushenberry expected back by opening day, Dan Moore, the
big free agent guy, and then a couple of former

(22:59):
first rounders Pete Skoronski. They're drafted the first round in
twenty twenty three. JC Latham. They drafted the first round
in twenty twenty four with a legendary OL coach and
what looks like some talent on the offensive line. If
guys are healthy and if the first round is live
up to expectation, there's a chance that cam Ward I
haven't mentioned it yet, that cam Ward is going to

(23:21):
have a decent offsive line to throw behind. When it
comes to the skilpis and talent, look Calvin Ridley. They
signed an aging Tyler Lockett. It's not a strong receiving unit.
There's zero quality depth and the skilpison talent here is limited.
When I'm a rebuilding squad, that's what I want. First,
fix your trenches, Second, fix your secondary, third, fix your quarterback. Fourth,

(23:45):
find some skilpus in talent. And they've at least it
looks like they're doing it in the right order. In
that regard, you know, quarterback, offsive line defense all ahead
of Skipton talent. That said, their Skipton. Talent is weak.
No pass rush was a real problem last year. It
looks like a problem again in twenty five. His entire defense.

(24:05):
You know, it's not like they made big moves on
fixing the defense. It's just hoole patching of this offseason.
Special teams were bottom tier last year. New coordinator this year,
but nothing we can count on. This team is not
primed to win in twenty twenty five. They are one
of the weakest teams in the NFL, even with some
of the signings again Dan Moore and Kevin Seidler and

(24:28):
Cody Barton, Xavier Woods, you know, the handful of free agents.
From a draft standpoint, look the last three quarterbacks drafted
by Tennessee at Marcus Mariota, Feil, Jake Locker, Feil, Vince Young, Feil.
Steve McNair is the last first round quarterback this team
got right. So cam Ward, a zero star prospect out

(24:50):
of incarnate word, ends up in Washington State, ends up
in Miami. Now he's the number one overall pick. We'll
see how Ward. You know, hope for Ward, but you're
talking about a rookie QB with limited skills and talent
around him. I'm not expecting miracles in that regard. They
did have a bunch of draft choices. They got some
nice depths in the later rounds, but this is a

(25:11):
roster with a lot of holes to fill. Previous GM
Morris Carthon left this roster pretty bare. From a schedule standpoint,
AFC South teams face to AFC West and the NFC West.
There are three extra games New England, Cleveland, New Orleans
as easy as it gets. And then that said, they
get the Browns in the Saints both late season. And

(25:33):
you'd rather have your week teams early when you're a
bad team, give you a little confidence early on. Perhaps
you don't know what Cleveland or New Orleans will look
like come December. They have a three game road trip
that starts in Week four. That's bad news for a
rookie quarterback. And of course, from e league standpoint, Tennessee
is basically invisible this year. No Monday night football, no
Sunday night football, no Thursday night football. If you're watching

(25:55):
National TV games only, you're not going to see the
Titans in twenty twenty five.

Speaker 3 (26:01):
Well that's good. The NFL took notes.

Speaker 2 (26:03):
We got tired of seeing the Titans on Thursday Night Football, Teddy,
really quickly before we get into the NFC South, you
mentioned Wednesday, your report for the entire NFL season is
going to come out. Tell everybody if they buy that report,
what they're going to receive.

Speaker 1 (26:20):
So you're going to get there's a part one that
comes out on Wednesday, when applicable. I had more plays
in the preseason after Week two or Week three, depending
there are years that I've added plays. There are years
I have and it just depends on what the markets do.
Is I don't want to promise I'm gonna add plays,
but there is in theory apart two the report based
on what we see over the first of the games

(26:42):
in August. The report traditionally four or five, six in
that range. You know, I've been whittling down the short
list for the last month and it's kind of crunch
times in which ones I'm going to use it, which
ones are going to bet, and all of that. But
in addition to the plays, the write ups bit is
important because you're going to find out all these little

(27:03):
details and nuances. You know, I spent a lot of
time writing them up and talking about the teams and
the thought process behind it, and people use those right
ups all year long. And that's another advantage of the
season win report when the teams. When I'm right, we're
betting on these teams and betting against these teams that
we have in the win Report consistently, and when I'm wrong,
we notice it early and we start flipping and go

(27:26):
the other way on some of these squads, and that
tends to work. You know. I know that there was
one year that someone I was like six wins off
on them, but we made a boatload and betting on
them all year because I was so wrong and I
saw it early. So that canon does happen. So that's
what you get with the win Report. You know, again,
it's one ninety nine to buy straight if you want
to buy the wind Report itself, it's free if you

(27:47):
get on board with the NFL Season Package, and obviously
today we have that promo code NFL one hundred. Take
one hundred bucks off that season package and you'll get
this win Report at noon Pacific time on Wednesday, all included.
You know, nothing more to buy, no nonsense in that regard.

Speaker 2 (28:06):
Yeah, Teddy's Report is something I use every single year
in terms of my NFL handicapping. As you guys know,
NFL is one of the hardest markets to be Teddy,
give us that record just one more time.

Speaker 1 (28:18):
So I started doing the report in two thousand and
one and since that time, i'm one oh three and
fifty two. That counts every play every year. The five
percent big tickets are seventeen and four eighty one percent.
The other one is what sixty five? I think a
sixty five point six sixty six percent in that range.
And it's not a short sample side. We're talking about

(28:40):
twenty four years. We won. Last year we won overall,
we won with a five percent. I expect to win
this year. I expect if you get on board, you
will win this year. So you know, that's why we
do all this work in May and June, so we'll
have an edge on the markets and an edge on
preparation when it comes to start a preseason football. I

(29:02):
love this stuff, you know. I got into sports betty
because I love betting the NFL. That's how it all
started for me. Cal I know you were in college one.
I was an NFL guy to begin with, and I
had some real good seasons over the years in the
NFL and this win report has been consistently profitable over
an extended track record, and again, like I said, I

(29:23):
expect to be profitable again this year. So that's what
you get. That's the record, all documented. If you feel free,
if you if you don't believe me, we can show
you that they have the spreadsheet in the in the
office with every signal release for every NFL win reports
in two thousand and one. But that's the that's the
take perfect.

Speaker 2 (29:45):
Let's get into the NFC South. We're gonna start off
with the Atlanta Falcons currently seven and a half juice
to the over minus one forty. I think at DraftKings
is where I'm getting most of this information. Plus two
point fifty to win the NFC South, thirty five to
one to win the NFC, eighty to one to win
the Super Bowl. I don't know what to make of

(30:08):
this Falcons team, Teddy. We've got Michael Pennix Junior in
his second year. Raheem Morris head coach. I just feel
like this team had so many opportunities to be better
than eight to nine last year, but they just kept faltering,
particularly against the spread six ten and one.

Speaker 3 (30:28):
They just burned their backers' money.

Speaker 1 (30:30):
Yeah. And by the way, guys, if you like this
type of analysis, we really appreciate those likes. Thank you
so much. Just click it's done. Please leave a comment below.
I get into the comments multiple times, even on Fourth
of July week. I'll be in the comments over the
next couple of days for sure. Let me know what
you think about these AFC and NFC South squads. Happy
to respond and offer my take. And if you just

(30:53):
want to say hi, you can do that too. And
of course you haven't done. So what do we have
two hundred thousand boop Subscribe to the Way You're Talking
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Subscribe and that we get instant alerts every time these
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(31:13):
if you don't want to watch us, you can always
download this stuff spot on all your podcast outlets. I
don't listen to a lot of podcasts. I'm the old guy.
I'm just not a podcast guy. But there are guys
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you don't ask for much. Tell a friend thank you.

(31:36):
The Atlanta Falcons last year lined at nine and a
half wins. They finished eight and nine. As you mentioned,
lots of winnable games that just fell apart down the stretch.
The year before twenty twenty three, I had Atlanta over
their win total eight and a half. They finished seven
and ten, and it was the exact same scenario. A
ton of games that it felt like they were supposed
to win and the fourth quarter comes around and they're

(31:58):
in a tight game and they couldn't get the job done.
Seven and ten the year before that, seven and ten
the year before that. It's been a while since the
faculty have been good. They have made the playoffs. They
have been the playoffs since the twenty eighth to three,
which is obviously a score that if you follow the
NFL you'll always remember. There's never been a Super Bowl
like it. Raheem Marris back in his second year as

(32:20):
the head coach, often cornator Zach Robinson returned new defense
corundor jeff Aulbrick, who worked with Morris before, and he's
been the DC for the Jets over the last four years.
The Jets collapsed last year. Was not the defense's fault,
or surely not as much as the offenses and the
special teams. Not forget how many games their kicker cost
him last year. So last year number eight yards per

(32:41):
playoffensively five point eight yards per play, so top quarter
tile in that regard, tied with Sincy. I had a
Washington pretty good offense, slightly below average defense at five
point five yards per play allowed minus six and turnovers
not a big deal there. Slightly easier than average schedule
last year, you know, not crazy easy, but easier than
averal based on my Powering numbers. The game was played,

(33:03):
there were number two in health. Last year, only sixty
five players saw the field. They're supposed to be better,
easier than the schedule, healthy, you know, a good offense,
and they weren't. So now the Michael Pennix ereup begins,
and Michael Penix had three starts last year. He's essentially
a rookie. He went one and two as a starter.

(33:23):
There was an asterisk there. Both losses came in overtime
when Atlanta never saw the ball. Kirk Cousins sitting cashing
a lot of stuff, taking up a lot of salary,
cap dollars. He sitting on the bench. Atlanta's hoping he'll
be traded to the first team that has an injured quarterback.
You know sometimes that the QB can attract a QB

(33:44):
like Cousins, can attract a lot of attention if a
team has a quarterback injury in August early September. That
being said, right now, they're paying him big money to
sit on the bench, and that's never a good sign
for any roster. Jean Robinson elite running back, stret London,
elite number one receiver. From a Skipton standpoint, there's not
much to be excited about after that. Can we call
Kyle Pitts a bust? Yet? I can four starters return

(34:08):
on the offs of line? It's a top ten unit
potential for real. That offsive line looks good on paper.
That resigned Jake Matthews. They re signed Liam McCullum, longstaffer,
Divine Diablo, they signed as a linebacker. Re signed Mike Hughes.
You know fifth year GM Terry Fountaoh, he's on the

(34:28):
hot seat. Mars too for that matter, Mars lasted three
years at his last head coach, kicking Tampa. But that
included a ten win season in the middle that Josh
Freeman Magic season. Freeman never had another season close. I
actually went and looked this up last last night. Only
threw six picks that year. He threw eighteen the year before,
twenty two the year after, and seventeen the year after that,

(34:50):
and the one year he caught magic. And that's the
one year Raheem Morris had a successful head coaching situation.
They lost Grady Jared Defense. He was the leader and
the oldest VET on this defense. Well respected guy Matthew Judon,
Justin Simmons, some high priced guys they brought in to win.
Now they're also gone from the defense. So what does

(35:11):
that mean. That means they needed edge rushing. They needed
something on the defensive line. They got two in the
first round with Jalen Walker out of Georgia and James
Pierce out of Tennessee, plus the return of the draft
pick last year Bringlin Trice towards ACL and missed the
entire season. They brought in Leonard Floyd in free agent,
so it's completely remade defensive front for Atlanta. The secondary

(35:35):
looks like the strength of the d. You know, a J.
Turell Jesse base returned two high draft picks, Mike Hughes
as a free agent. That said, the secretary of strength
of the defense. They allowed thirty four touchdown passes last year.
Only Carolina allowed more. There is a youth movement in Atlanta.
We talked about some of the guys, Judon and Simmons
being gone, Grady Jarrett being gone. It feels like they

(35:57):
got a lot younger this offseason and Jennison perhaps veteran leadership.
We'll see if that works out good or bad for them.
From a schedule standpoint, NFC South teams face NFC West
and AFC East squads. There are three extra games Minnesota, Washington,
and Indy in Berlin. Not necessarily an easy trio. They

(36:18):
have a Thursday night football to Sunday night and a
Monday night game, so they're showcased a little bit to
do with the earliest by possible Week five. I wanted
to I was really considering Atlanta under I'm still considering
Atlanta under season wins. I'm not high on this team.
That said, they have this seven week span October through
early December, Miami, New England, Indy, Carolina, New Orleans, The

(36:42):
Jets Seattle. That's as easy at stretch as any team
has all year in the NFL, and it's probably gonna
keep me off this over this under, I should say,
But the Falcon's not a team I'm particularly high.

Speaker 2 (36:56):
All right, let's move along to the Carolina Panthers. I
know this is riveting stuff and this is why Teddy
saved these types of teams for last. But we can
still make money on them, Teddy. Right now, six and
a half is a season win total minus one twenty
five to the over, four to one to win the
NFC South, fifty to one to win the NFC, and

(37:16):
well plus plus twelve thousand to win the Super Bowl.
Come on, Panthers, give me something to bet on. We
want to bet against this team. We would have bet
on this team. This is a Carolina team that has
just really been lackluster. Teddy five and twelve last year,
eight and nine against the spread. Bryce Young. They make

(37:37):
every single meme about him every single week on the internet,
about how small he is. There's been no major coaching changes.
What is this team going to do differently this year
than they've done in years past?

Speaker 1 (37:48):
So, I mean, Caroline has been pretty bad this decade.
You know, five and twelve and twenty twenty one, seven
and ten and twenty twenty two, two and fifteen and
twenty three, five and twelve. Last year, though they snuck
over their win total last year lined four and a
half wins, and that didn't look good early. They got
hot down the stretch and maybe that stretch run for
Caroline is what Panthers fans are hoping will continue momentum

(38:10):
wise into this year. As you mentioned, the head coach,
the staff coaching established Larty back. Second year head coach
Dave Canals is back, you know, very positive guy. He's
the Pete Carroll, the Pete Carroll light in that regard.
Everything's great, We're gonna be awesome. Second year O C.
Brad Izick is back. Third year defense twitter jaeho Ivero
is back, and that's interesting because we're gonna talk about
this defense. Of course, you have an embarrassing owner situation

(38:32):
with David Tepper. You know, the team hasn't made the
playoffs since he bought them in twenty eighteen, and that's
always a concern. Five point one yeards for playoffense last year.
Offensively last year below average, much better down the stretch
after a dismal first half that went four and five
straight up their last nine games. That said, listen to
some of these defensive numbers. They have the worst defense

(38:54):
in the NFL six point zero yards per play alout
five hundred and thirty four points, the most little points
a lot in the season ever in the history of
the league, thirty one point down that it was a
seventeen game season. It's not worst ever for per points
per game allowed, but at the most points any team
is ever allowed ever ever ever in the season in

(39:15):
the NFL history, thirty one points a game thirty one
point four close to the worst than points per game allowed.
They had allowed an NFL high thirty five touchdown pass
against them, They became only the fourth team in NFL
history to allow three thousand rushing yards against them, and
they brought back a vro minus five turnovers a year ago.

(39:36):
Good for a team with a DICE I mean it's honestly,
he's good for a team with the terrible defense and
a DICE QB situation. Minus five turnover was a positive.
Could have been much worse. Strength to schedule last year
one of the toughest in the NFL. Based on my numbers.
Only Cleveland, San France and Pittsburgh faced tougher opponents throughout
the course of the weekend. Of course, they had a
ton of injuries, a ton of attrition last year. Eighty

(39:57):
six players saw a game time for Carolina. Kind of
for Carolina last year, most in the NFL. Lots of
injuries for the squad, and lots of an effective play.
We talked about the offseason, the entire offensive line returns.
Bryce Young showed signs in the second half last year.
There's continuity with the offense. The receiving course as weak
as any in the NFL. You know, even after making

(40:19):
a number one pick on the wide receiver tight end
room is week two. They had to overpay j C.
Horn to keep him a pro bowler on and think
about j C Horn talked about some of the metrics
for this defense is one of the worst in history.
Last year. Jase Horn was a pro bowler on this defense.
So they certainly they I felt like they overpaid to

(40:40):
keep him. That said, they kept new kicker, new punter,
special teams question marks. You know, draft wise, offseason wise,
they concentrated on defense rightfully, so Chechaun Watton, Trevon Morig.
You know, they paid a fair bit of money to
bring in a handful of guys on that defense. Wharton
on the defensive lind Morgan, the second Bobby Brown. They

(41:01):
brought it on the defensive line. And then I talked
about obviously McMillan, the wide receiver out of Arizona with
the first round pick, and the edge rusher with the
next two kids out of Texas A and M Mississippi,
a couple of sec edge rushers. So they paid some
attention to defense in the offseason. To put it mildly,
schedule wise, NFC South faces NFC West and AFC East teams,

(41:24):
there are three extra games, not easy Dallas, Green Bay, Jacksonville.
They have one Monday night football against San France in November.
That's it for TV games, and they do have a
week fourteen by that's the last possible week. Bad news
if they got off to a slow start. You know,
Carolina certainly doesn't look like they've turned the corner to

(41:44):
become a winning team. That being said, there's a little
bit of continuity here, and they showed signs offensively last
year being better than they were. Perhaps this year they'll
be able to trade points with some of their opponents.

Speaker 3 (41:57):
All right, so a little bit of breaking news.

Speaker 2 (41:59):
I know we're kind of up against it, but Adam
Schefter just tweeted ESPN sources Steelers traded three time All
Pro safety safety man of Fitzpatrick to the Dolphins in
exchange for three time All Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

Speaker 3 (42:14):
This is a rare player, four player trade.

Speaker 2 (42:18):
Gonna be really interesting, Teddy, any thoughts really quickly before
we getting to the rest of the NFC South.

Speaker 1 (42:24):
So I'm impressed with what Miami got for a guy
who said I'm not going to play for you anymore.
You know, in that sense that being said, Pittsburgh gets
an elite cornerback, makes Steelers better, and I'm not sure
how that it makes the Dolphins better. So, you know,
advantage in the one sense, Miami got proper value. In

(42:47):
the other sense, Jalen Ramsey's you know, at this stage
of the career, I'll take Ramsey over Fitzpatrick. So that's
my gut reaction.

Speaker 2 (42:55):
All right, let's talk about the New Orleans Saints six
and a half plus one to the over. If you
think the States can win seven games twelve to one,
the longest odds to win the NFC South one under
twenty one to win the NFC in three hundred to
one to win Super the Super Bowl, Sadi, I don't

(43:15):
know what to make of the Saints team. Let's just
break it down for what it is. You've got Kellen
Moore in his first year as a head coach. You've
got Spencer Ratler in a second year, assuming that he's
going to be the starter here.

Speaker 3 (43:27):
Break this team.

Speaker 2 (43:28):
Down in terms of a season win perspective. Maybe say
some nice things that the Saints can be looking forward to.

Speaker 1 (43:37):
No. So last year, the five percent big ticket was
Saints under seven and a half wins. The first two
weeks they looked like the best team in football, and
then they won three games. The rest of the year,
they finished five to twelve. We catched this one in
early to mid December with not a sweat when all
was said and done, with that five percent big ticket

(43:58):
on New Orleans under and the reason that I was
so strong on no One's been under. I knew that
they had no quality depth. This team's been up against
its salary cap wise, and they kept kicking the can
down the road. And as soon as the injury started
last year. It was a disaster for them. Five point
three yards woul play on offense below average, I mean
middle of the pack, but below average. Five point eight

(44:18):
yards will play allout on defense. All Chicago, Jacksonville and
Carolina were worse thirtieth in total defense, thirty first in
yards per rush allowed four point nine yards per rush. Allout.
Wasn't a turnover issue last year minus two and turnovers
nothing really there. They had a slightly easier than average
schedule last year. Based on my Powering numbers of the week.
The game was played two and five in one score

(44:41):
games a year ago. Slightly more injuries than average, seventy
four players shoot it up. The offense really got decimated.
The defense stayed reasonably healthy the first time this year
since Sean Payton arrived in two thousand and six and
signed Drew Brees as his new quarterback. That they have
a new head coach, new QB. Same year, he talked
about Kellen Moore and he was the Eagles offer the

(45:02):
coiner of last year. He's gonna call his own plays
on offense. Brandon Staley. You know, we talked about how
a lot of times the rookie head coach going to
bring in a veteran coordinator, Brandon Staley, the former Chargers
head coach, comes in and coaches the defense, which is,
you know, not what we're seeing from some other squads.
We talked about today off season moves. Look your quarterback,

(45:24):
Quintin May, you didn't quit in January. You didn't quit
in February. Quinin May awfully late. Derek Cart said, yeah,
I'm not coming back. You know, it's a quarter It's
a legit quarterback battle in theory. The fortieth pick Tyler Schuck,
and Chuck dropped as much as he did because he
was twenty six years old, all right, and he did
have three season any injuries in a very long college

(45:44):
career at Oregon Texas Tech in Louisville. So he's got
an injury history and he's ancient for a rookie. That
being said, you know, he talked about it's not about upside,
it's about getting through this season, and Shook has a
chance to win this job. Spencer Rattler was a rookie
last year under a different coaching staff, Jay Hayner, now
a third year pro. Ratler than Hayinter re combined oh
and seven as starters last year their skilleds from talent

(46:06):
on offense, there really is Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed,
Brandon Cooks. The offensive line looks solid if Caesar ma
Reis and Eric McCoy returned from injuries, effectively number one
pick the office of lineman Calvin Banks, Outland Trophy winner
from Texas. So they've got skilled position, they've got an
offensive line. See if the quarterback plays okay, you know,

(46:27):
either way, it's going to be your rookie year inexperience
at the QB position. But there's at least some room
to think that the QB may be able to succeed. Now,
the defense is a whole nother question, tons of question mark,
big schematic changes. They're switching defenses, which they were three
to four. They're counting on thirty six year old Cam
Jordan and thirty six year old to Mario Davis and

(46:47):
thirty three year old Honey Badger. You know at Tyrone
Matthew is thirteenth league in the league. You know, I
got a lot of concerns about the secondary. Marshawn Latimer
got traded last year. Bo Paulson dave O bolted both
the Giants in free agency. You know, I like to lose,
and they bring in Chase Young as their big free
agents signing on offense, Juwan Johnson. I guess the big

(47:09):
on defense, I should say is the h rusher, Juwan
Johnson the big free agent signing on offense, and obviously
Banks and Shook the first two draft choices on the
office side of football. The next four all came on
d twenty twenty five. Schedule. NFC South teams face NFC
West and AFC East opponents. Their three extra games are easy,

(47:30):
the Giants relatively easy, the Giants, the Bears, and the Titans.
They are bottom five in rest differential this year. It's
the only team from these two divisions I'm talking about
when it comes to rest differential because it's the only
team that something stood out in that regard. Opposing teams
have extra rest. They face three teams come off a
bye and one team coming off a minibi after playing

(47:52):
the previous Thursday. They have four two game road trips,
you know, back to back road games, which is always
difficult for young qbs. No TV games. The schedules set
for relevancy. That said, if they're decent, the back half
of the schedule, they can make a run Carolina, Atlanta, Miami, Tampa, Carolina,
the Jets, Tennessee, Atlanta the last eight games. You know,

(48:13):
if New Orleans, if what is decent anyway, that's a
stretch of opponents they could make some noise against.

Speaker 3 (48:23):
All Right, we're kind of up against it.

Speaker 2 (48:24):
So we got about seven or eight minutes to get
into the Tampa Bay Bucks, the last team on our
list for today, Teddy nine and a half wins pretty
much minus one ten on both sides, also minus one
ten to win the division, thirteen to one to win
the NFC, twenty eight to one to win the Super Bowl.
I go to a lot of these guys games, right,

(48:45):
just kind of like my new hometown team.

Speaker 3 (48:46):
I really like Baker Mayfield.

Speaker 2 (48:48):
Head coach Todd Bowles has been excellent, but defensive coordinator
Casey Rodgers has really just done a great job with
this defense. And the old adages Teddy defense wins championships.

Speaker 3 (49:00):
Do you think that still holds true?

Speaker 2 (49:01):
And do you think there's any value here on the
bus getting out of well the wild card round the year.

Speaker 1 (49:07):
So if there's one team from these two divisions that
can make a run deep run of the playoffs. It's Tampa,
you know. I mean the last year lined at eight
and a half wins, they finished ten and seven. The
year before, lined at six and a half, they finished
nine and eight, eight and nine the year before, thirteen
and four the year before that. Six point two yards
per playoff fensially a year ago. That's number four in
the NFL. Only Baltimbore, Detroit and San Franz were better.

(49:30):
Those are teams you like to be on the list with.
You know, five point four yards will play all lout
on defense, middle of the pack minus five and turnovers
not much there. They did face a weaker than average
schedule last year. Only a handful of teams based on
my party numbers were weaker, since the Philadelphia, the Chargers.
In the Miami and Washington, they went two and five
for a playoff team, they went two and five and
one score games. You know, that's rare for a first

(49:52):
place team. Bianco, the Broncos were the only other team
that made the postseason that were minus three or worse
in one games ended up making the playoffs. They were
slightly more injured than average last year, seventy four players
shuited up, but they didn't win their fourth consecutive NFC
South title. Todd Bowles back for his fourth year as
head coach. Now they do you lose Liam Cohen to

(50:13):
Jacksonville as often creator, but John Grizzard, the new offtion coordinator,
promoted from within the offensive scheme intact, It's not a
new offense for anyone to learn. You talked about Casey
Rodgers and the defense. He's back for his fourth season
and bowls. It certainly a defensive minor head coach. Most
of the starting line of returns intact, All eleven on
offense are back. It's a top five offense with Mayfield

(50:35):
last year, it's the top five offensive line. Excellent running
game with Bucky Irving and Rashad White. You know, the
receiving course as good as any in the league. Really
is the defensive unit with questions. You know they got
star power with Vitaveya. Defense, tackle Antoine Winfield's a Pro bowler.
Last year they signed Hassan Reddick. You know, re signed
the future Hall of Famer Levante David. But there are

(50:56):
death concerns, at least for me, on all three units.
If they get banged up, injuries will destroy this defense.
They did drafted two cornerbacks and two red edge rushers
after the number one pick, A Booba out of Ohio
State that wide receiver. So they spent a lot of
draft cap on the defense side of the football, But
the offense looks good. The defense has questions, fields to

(51:17):
fee like a team is gonna cash week by week,
a lot of over bets. They closed out in the
regular season last year eleven and three to the over
in their last fourteen games. That included their four games
skit you know midseason a year ago. Re signed Godwin
in the offseason, making that you know, receiving corps even better.
This team's pretty good, they really are. Schedule Wise, NFC

(51:40):
South faces, NFC westn AFC East teams, they have six
games versus their division all teams lie to seven and
a half wins are lower. They went four and two
in division last year. They could do better than that
this year. The Jets the only other team on their schedule,
though lying lower than eight and a half wins. They're
three extra games Houston, Philly, Detroit compared that to everyone
in the division. You know, the Bucks have a much

(52:03):
tougher schedule in that regard. We'll see him on TV.
They got a couple of Monday night games and the
Sunday night games. Tampa the best team in the division
by a fairly wide margin. The toughest schedule in the
division by a fairly wide margin.

Speaker 3 (52:17):
All right, that is the AFC and NFC South.

Speaker 2 (52:20):
As Teddy mentioned, we'll be back on August fourth to
get into the preseason all the way through the end
of Super Bowl. Teddy, before we let our audience go
any parting words thoughts, let's hear it.

Speaker 1 (52:33):
Sure. We appreciate the likes, follows, and comments very very much.
The NFL Winter Report Season winn Report again one on
three and fifty two lifetimes seventeen and four with the
big ticket that comes out two days from now on Wednesday,
July second. Don't buy the report, get my season package
instead promo code NFL one hundred. We'll take one hundred
dollars off the full season package. Take advantage of that

(52:58):
right now on my homepage, WT dot bus backslash TC.
Thank you so much for watching, guys. Really appreciate all
the positive feedback. Best of luck with all your bets,
and we'll talk to you again after this little break
for the report to be released and then a little
bit of time to enjoy the summer.

Speaker 2 (53:16):
Absolutely, I hope you guys enjoy your July and if
you guys are watching live, stick around, hang out. Wager
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