Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome into the NFL Opening Line Reports, super Bowl edition.
I am Andrew Martin, joined as always by Teddy Covers,
Getting you ready.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
For the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
We'll go over the line signed and total here guys,
projecting where we are going.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Also a preview of.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
The game, but without further ado Teddy Covers, Happy Monday
morning to you, buddy.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
Welcome on in.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Yeah, great to be here. Drew.
Speaker 4 (00:22):
Always fun on a Super Bowl Monday. After the games
get announced. Yesterday, I certainly pointed to unpack from what
we saw against Philly knocking off Washington, what we saw
for Kansas City knocking off Well Kansas City, and the
Raft knocking off Buffalo. Let's call it how it is
(00:42):
so plenty of stuff to break down there. We could
talk about what the look ahead numbers were. We could
talk about where the early money is flowing both side
in total, and I've got some props that are already
out that i wanted to mention. And of course we'll
talk about the last time these two teams met in
the Super Bowl just two years ago. We can talk
(01:02):
about how Tom Brady was as bad as a color
commentator as I've really ever heard.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
In yesterday's game, Brady was pretty awful.
Speaker 4 (01:12):
Uh, you know, I've you know when when it's when
his is the only game on Uh. That was rough, obviously,
and I do want to talk about someone, Like I said,
some of the props. The first numbers have come up
on some of the stuff. When we expect some movement,
we'll talk about m vps, Jalen Hurts numbers, Kareem Hunts
numbers if you're worthy, all of which are are worth
noting here on a Monday morning, and if we have time,
(01:36):
If we have time, at the end of the show,
we'll go through a little trip through memory lane when
it comes to Super Bowls. This week we'll talk more
about Side and Total. Next week we'll recap Sight in
Total and talk a little bit more about the props. Obviously,
we'll have a loaded prop sheet Thursday night at the
Westgates super Book. I'll be down there as well many
(01:56):
of my friends.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
There's something about that Thursday night when the props come
up at the Westgates super Book that attracts all the
wise guys in Nevada and many of them from Mada, Nevada.
It's a hell of a place to be and I'll
be there thurd tonight, so I'll report back everything that
I see and hear, well, everything on the record that
I see here on next week's show. But for today,
let's talk about what happened. Let's talk about the big games,
(02:18):
where the numbers open and where they're likely to move.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
Absolutely Teddy setting that up here, guys, and yeah, I
think we will have time to go over a few
of the past Super bowls here. History doesn't always repeat,
but it usually rhymes, so we can use that in
our handicapping.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
But let's set it up here.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Tee it up.
Speaker 1 (02:35):
Super Bowl fifty nine, Sunday, February ninth, Caesar Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana.
So we are heading to the big easy here. Keep
in mind, guys, fast track controlled climate where the New
Orleans Saints play their home games. And Teddy, we're talking
Kansas City Chiefs Philadelphia Eagles. We saw this total open,
what forty eight and a half minus one and a
(02:56):
hook that being the Chiefs as the favorite, we were
seeing mostly minus one and a half. Now there is
a minus two out there and a little tick up
here by a full point. Forty nine and a half
seems to be the consensus. Totals, So it'll throw it
over to you kind of opening thoughts on the opening
number and where you think this is.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Moving, all right?
Speaker 4 (03:16):
So, and my take on the total is very different
from yours, for what it's worth, because I have a
very different opening number, and I'm of course tracking five
different books. But let's start with it. Kansas City, Philadelphia
my powering number KC minus one and a half neutral field.
I had KC a point and a half better in
my numbers look Ahead line Westgate open KC minus one
(03:41):
last week and that was bet up to minus one
and a half. So in that same they look at
lines for you know, it was Bill's minus four and
a half First Commanders Bills minus one versus the Eagles
Chiefs minus four and a half First Commanders Chiefs minus
one versus the Eagles. Those are the look ahead lines,
and they the AFC minus two and a half against
the NFC for what it's worth at the way skate
last week, so it was minus one four k C
(04:04):
at the open bet up to one and a half
last night. These lines opened. Kansas City opened minus one
and a half is the number I'm gonna call it,
and got bet up at many books immediately to minus two.
We saw the money line open KC and the minus
one twenty five range. I was seeing minus one thirties,
(04:25):
minus one thirty five's last night right at the open.
I think someone's even higher than when there are a
couple of books even higher than minus one thirty five.
That being said, that initial Kansas City money and that
was it might have been one one group or one
better that bet the chiefs at the open. That's not
been a prevailing trend. The line is held pretty much
at one and a half. Most of the books that
(04:47):
moved to minus two last night I moved back down
to minus one and a half this morning. The majority
of books there are a halful that still over minus two.
But many of the books that were one and a
half last night bet up to two have seen some money.
Some take that back on Philly from a money line standpoint,
and again the wayge talk Live Oz screen such a
great product. Minus one twenty five the prevailing number. There's
(05:09):
minus one twenty out there if you shop around, and
as high as minus one thirty six minus one thirty five,
So there is some variance on that money line. Remember,
if you like Philly, all right, this is one. I mean,
we're going to see the majority of the money, or
of pretty good, we're gonna see the majority of the
(05:30):
money on Philly's on the money line, as opposed to
plus one or plus one and a half, whatever it is.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
That's what betters do.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
There were plus one fifteen's out there earlier this morning.
When I was talking on wager Talk today, I said,
I'm not convinced those plus one fifteens are going to
last on Philly. If you'll like the Eagles on the
you know, on the money line, grab the plus one
fifteen now and looking the free way to talk live
odd screen. Yet it's mostly my plus one tens. There
are a couple plus one fifteen's out there, but it's
(05:56):
more plus one oh five plus one ten. So if
you'll like Philly on the money line, find a one
fifteen now. Again, I'm not convinced they're going to be
there that much longer. The early indications that we're going
to see two way betting on this bogame, I don't
see that the one side or the other is going
(06:17):
to attract the majority of public money.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
I don't see one side or.
Speaker 4 (06:20):
The other's necessarily going to attract the majority of wise
guy money either. So the books are likely to get
two way action on this bogga and they're not going
to be side of year when it comes to the total.
And this is where I guess we have some differences.
Look ahead total was forty shit, I don't even know,
(06:41):
having forty five and a half at the at the
west Gate was a look at it total and obviously
that was low. We saw last night this line opened.
I called it forty nine and a half slash fifty
as the open There was one there again, there were
a couple of bol open low and Global Books Westgate
(07:01):
open glow low here in Vegas. But last night what
I'm calling the opener for the total forty nine and
a half slash fifty because that's where the market was.
What about a half hour an hour, an hour and
a half after these lines were posted last night and
it was across the board.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
What have we seen since then?
Speaker 4 (07:21):
Well, the fifties got taken out, forty nine and a
half the prevailing number.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Right now.
Speaker 4 (07:25):
There are couple of forty nine's out there, but not
a ton. But the fifties got taken out, so there
was some under money coming in take me out the fifties,
and the fact that a couple of books posted look
ahead lines that were a little bit low on the total.
That's not the opener openers forty nine and a half
(07:47):
slash fifty and the fifties got been taken out. So
we've seen a little bit of under money. We saw
a little bit of cheese money initially that has now
been bought back and has not continued. And I would
expect this line to hold in this range. Casey is
short favorite total above forty nine below fifty for at
least the next ten twelve days. When we start to
(08:10):
see the last forty eight hours seventy two hours before kickoff,
we could see some moves, but nothing that I've seen
last night or this morning makes me think that these
lines are going anywhere. I think we'll see two way
action and current numbers.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
I like that, Teddy.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
And just to be clear, I was just reading off
the wager Talk live on screen.
Speaker 3 (08:30):
That's what they had for the opener, So it makes
me crazy.
Speaker 4 (08:34):
I talked to them. We'll talk about odds logic next week,
for sure. That's the new the newest product. That way
your talk is putting together and the Live odd screen
is pretty impressive and very reasonably priced. So we'll talk
about it now on next week's show. For sure, Odd's
logic check it out if you want. Between now and then.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
For Sure, Teddy and I guess the question you're you've
talked about this, but before usually coming into Week one
of the NFL, they'll post those Week one numbers and
you talk about movement. I remember from doing the show
with you for many years now, and then there's like
a dead period and then before kickoff there'll be more movement.
Is it kind of the same concept here with the
(09:16):
Super Bowl? There will be movement right now, and then
there'll be a dead zone, and then come into you know, Thursday, Friday,
before the kick there'll be more movement.
Speaker 4 (09:25):
Yes, that's my exact You know, there's the initial flurry,
and we've seen the initial flurry. You know, it's Monday morning.
I don't know how much these line are going to
move for the next ten days. I'll take the under.
You know, I think Casey's going to be short chalk.
I think the total is going to be in the
same range. We're not gonna see any weather info affecting
the total. It's just a handicap from here on out,
(09:46):
and it's just you know, books responding the money that
we're getting. I would anticipate again, I've been wrong before,
but I would not anticipate a ton of line movement
on this.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Game moving forward. I really wouldn't.
Speaker 4 (09:58):
The reason that I think there's some urgency for the
Philadelphia side on the money line, if you like that
side on the money line, is because we're likely to
see the majority or a significant portion of the Eagles
money come on the money line. And what we see
in the Super Bowl tends to distort money lines.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
There is.
Speaker 4 (10:18):
A distortion in the many marketplace where the people that
bet the favorite lay the points that people that take
the take the dog on the money line.
Speaker 2 (10:26):
So oftentimes you'll.
Speaker 4 (10:27):
See the quote unquote best value on Super Bowl Sunday
is the favorite on the money line. Here's a scenario
where Philly at plus one point fifteen likely in my opinion,
to take at least some money line action. I don't
think it gets higher than that, which is the urgency
for Philadelphia. But other than that, I mean, there really
isn't a ton of urgency to get involved today. That
(10:51):
being said, Drew, this is one game that absolutely stood
out to me when the line came out last night.
I'm like, I'm getting down on it now. I'm getting
down at large and I did I mean a big
bet last night. I advise my clients to do the same.
I do have a five percent big ticket moneyline wager
on the Super Bowl available right now at wager talk
dot com on my pagewt dot buzz backslash TC. I
(11:14):
don't do this a lot, but this is one. Right
at the opener, I'm like, let's lock in at this number.
And we did that last night. We did it in
a step up size wager. We've won each of the
last three Super Bowls and I'm number one all time
all time wager talk when it comes to five percent
big ticket profitability. So if you want to get on board,
(11:37):
you do that right now on my pagewt dot buzz
backslash T.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Teddycovers wager talk dot com. Teddy, you bring up you
know public where this is going. You know the chiefs,
Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelsey, Taylors, the whole bit. You really
don't think that they're going to take more public money.
You think it might be a little bit more even.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Yes, I do. And again.
Speaker 4 (12:04):
The public bets of Super Bowl. It's probably the only
game all year where you have to factor in public opinion.
But there's plenty of anti Chiefs sentiment out there. There's
plenty of folks that haven't made money betting on Kansas
City has favorites this year that'll be looking to fade them.
Philly's got a pre pherly significant betting bandwagon. There'll be
(12:28):
two way action on this game. This is not going
to be all Kansas City all the time. I don't
think I've been wrong before, but nothing that I've seen
early makes me think that it's going to be all
Chiefs all the time in anything.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
With the venue, of course being in New Orleans.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
Philadelphia has played here this season earlier this year, and
another part of the venue not only being New Orleans,
but it being in a dome. Of course, both of
these two teams, Philadelphia Kansas City kind of cold weather.
Neither one of them has played in very many dome games,
particularly since like the month of September. Does that change
(13:01):
anything that it will be a controlled climate? And there
isn't a lot of history of recent.
Speaker 4 (13:08):
So there's a lot of factors for any game and
you can choose to to focus on whatever factors you
think are important. When it comes to the venue here
being played on a fast track in New Orleans, I mean,
does it matter.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
I don't.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
I don't see any anything. Initially, well, my third first
thought process that makes me think that the venue affects
my thought on side or total for this ball game.
And you reach of the quotes, let me give you
some quotes, you know right here from the two team,
because the quotes are much more, Uh, they're exactly what
(13:50):
you'd expect from veteran teams going in a game like this.
You know, Patrick Mahons, You know, I think I've always
said it, it's not about one guy. It's not about
a couple guys. It's about the whole entire team. We
needed the defense to get stops. They get stops offense.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
You made plays.
Speaker 4 (14:04):
That's why we're so special. It's a team effort on
a team football game. And that was such a game
of inches.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
I mean, you know.
Speaker 4 (14:11):
James Cook with that incredible touchdown, fairly inches. You know
the obviously the very controversial fourth down stop for Kansas
City against Buffalo. You know inches. There's a lot of
that and this game, much like the last week between
these two teams in the Super Bowl, may be a
(14:32):
matter of inches. We all remember that Get thirty eight
thirty five was a classic in case he did have
a defensive score in that contest, that was a huge
if was maker obviously made the plays at the end
of the game, but you know, that was an absolute thriller.
It came down to the final play of the game.
It was decided by exactly a field goal. Of course
for Philadelphia. Similar quotes teams that have been here before,
(14:56):
Jalen Hurts, it's not about me. I don't play the
game for any statistical measure. You play the game to win.
I play the game to win. And of course the
passing game worked for Philadelphia yesterday. Some of that's Washington's defense.
Some of that's the fact that I thought that Jalen
Hurts and the Philadelphia passing game was an undervalid commodity
going into that concept. That's why I like the over,
or a big part of the reason why I like
the over in that ball game.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
And it's you know, I said that Sirianni quote.
Speaker 4 (15:18):
Let me out of my straight jacket a little bit today,
and they're able to throw the football effectively, only the
second time the last eight games he's reached two hundred
passing yards. Casey allowed a Bill's touchdown drive in the
second half when Buffalo has kind of taken over that
game and it was all runs. They didn't throw the
(15:38):
ball once on that drive. That's a concern for Kansas
City against Saquon Barkley. You know, Barkley's doing very very
special things on a weekend, a week out basis, and
with Barkley clicking and the passing game clicking, you know,
there is certainly no easy offense to stop.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
That.
Speaker 4 (16:00):
Being said, it is worth noting Philly won the turnover
battle four to nothing against Washington in the postseason. They
played the Packers, the Rams, and the Commanders all at home.
Defense ten takeaways, offense zero giveaways. So yes, they've been
a good point spread team. When you're plus ten and
(16:22):
turnovers over a three week span, you're supposed to be
a good point spread team. For Kansas City, you know,
they played the Texans and the Bills in the postseason.
Houston gave him a battle, Buffalo gave him a battle.
We don't have that dominant victory like Philadelphia had in
(16:44):
the NFC Championship Game, although of course the point spread
track record for teams that score was it forty plus
in the championship games.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Not great.
Speaker 4 (16:53):
I've been really interested. I'm gonna look at Ralph Michael's
stats on that. Angles on that, but if memory serves correctly,
the team that went nuts in the Championship game not
always a bet on in.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
The Super Bowl.
Speaker 4 (17:06):
That being said, obviously, the last time these two teams
met it with an absolute classic. I don't think anyone
want was surprised we saw another one thirteen days for today.
Speaker 1 (17:18):
And Teddy, I know we got some history to go
over here because there are some trends that are kind
of I popping here in the Super Bowl, mainly on
the side part, but also some totals here. Did you
want to throw out some prompts that were catching your eye?
Speaker 2 (17:30):
I do, and again these I've got.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
I've got openers from DraftKings over here, and I have
a little birdie. I said, there's something if you want
to bet, bet them sooner rather than later. They expect
Jalen Hurts under number so two fourteen and a half
was his opener in the passing yards at DK and
(17:52):
my source expected under money there, Kareem Hunt over carries
another one that stands out of the opening ten and
a half carries, and Kareem Hunt here in the postseason
has been a big factor in Kansas City's offense. So
that's two that stands out. Hurts under passing yards, Hunt
over carries to worth notings. And of course when it
(18:14):
comes to the MVP, you know, you know, there's a
there's a there's a school of thought that says, don't
bet the team to win, just bet the MVP so
you can get Mahomes even money. Now at MVP, what
if you have three of these already and I guess
that's better than lay in minus one twenty five minus
one thirty with the Kansas City unless there's no one
(18:37):
else that can win.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
The MVP.
Speaker 4 (18:41):
And really, when you look at the other choices for
Kansas City, there's no one that's even close.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
One would expect Mahomes to win that.
Speaker 4 (18:49):
But I get the case. Sorry, I bet Mahomes for MVP,
and then don't even worry about the side. If you
like the Kansas City side, there's something to be said
for that. It's not how I would choose to make
my wager. If I like Kansas City, but of course
with Barkley and Hurts for Philadelphia, Barkley's plus two to
(19:09):
seventy five at the open. These are off short numbers too,
global numbers. Hurts in the plus three sixty range as
the MVP I mean is but it's likely to be
one of those three guys. But with Philadelphia there's not
the one guy you can pick who's likely to win
it if they win. So I think the correlation is
stronger for Mahomes with the Chiefs, and it would be
with Barkley or Hurts for Philadelphia. Position winner is an
(19:33):
interesting one, you know, quarterback minus two twenty, running back
plus two twenty five, wide receiver plus six fifty at
the open.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
Again global numbers, And.
Speaker 4 (19:44):
Of course they have the study Super Bowl MVP DI
mentioned first team teammates, God Religion, City fans, coaches, family,
team owner, that kind of crab. Quarterback minus two twenty
any other position plus one fifty five for Super Bowl
Super Bowl to be from you to be from the
losing team, you can get twenty five to one if
you want that, bet. I would not advise that. And
(20:05):
this is so key when it comes to Super Bowls.
All right, It really is. When you talk about the
basics of Super Bowl betting, your general public wants to
bet a little to win a lot. Oh, twenty five
to one, let's try that super Bowl MVP is not
coming from the losing team this year, all right?
Speaker 2 (20:22):
I re shocked, shocked to see that happen.
Speaker 4 (20:26):
I mean, I guess it could, but it's twenty five
to one for a reason. Same thing with overtimes and safeties,
and the general public's always looking for the scores, not
to mention the parlays. You know, Oh, how do I
bet to win a lot? The sharp money's very comfortable
betting a lot to win a little when the odds
are in their favor. And that is one of the
biggest differences when it comes to Super Bowl Sunday between
(20:48):
pros and Joe's. Joe's are looking for scores on a
date it's really hard to get scores, and pros are
looking to grind out a profit just like they do
on any other day.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
A couple questions right there on the props one is.
Speaker 1 (21:03):
Off the top of your head, has a Super Bowl
winner ever come from the losing team?
Speaker 4 (21:09):
It did once that I could, and I can't remember
who it was, But I know what has had It's happened.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
At least once.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
Okay, let me find out for sure. Let's find out
when last timeould happened.
Speaker 1 (21:18):
Because I'm thinking I wouldn't want to make that that,
particularly if you're betting into something that's never happened before.
That that wouldn't be like a profile that I would
look to go off of. And I got another question
for you in terms of what the Super Bowl MVP says.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
First, what was the religion? What was the price on that?
Speaker 4 (21:38):
If you haven't for you give me my second. Nineteen
seventy one, the Cowboys had a defender that was the
super Bowl MVP in a game that they lost. When
it comes to the team teammates minus one fifty God
Religion plus one fifty City fans nine to one, which
(22:00):
is fourteen to one. First, this is who the super
Bowl MVP would make you First team God City one two, three, coaches, family,
team owner four or five six, Taylor Swift number seven
at thirty three one.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
Okay, One thing I want to throw out with that
is I think this number is going to move. Feel
free to go against me if you want TC. But
Patrick Mahomes if he wins it. He's a Polish guy. Like,
if you hear him talk, I wouldn't be surprised if
he's worked with a broadcast coach, a speech coach, which
I applaud him for. But you can just tell whether
they ask him about politics anything. Is he's on point
(22:37):
with his words and if you launch just last night,
right off the bat, he was like, first I want
to thank God.
Speaker 3 (22:43):
I would follow that like, you.
Speaker 1 (22:45):
Know, use that into your handicap, because he's likely just
going to do that again, you know, kind of repetition
in what you say. I don't know if you think
there's any advantage to betting religion first off of that.
Speaker 4 (22:57):
So I'm not betting globally these days, or not nearly
at the level that you know that that's one good
advantage of living in Las Vegas is that you don't
have to, uh, which I mean, I guess limit your
ability to place bets like this one.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
But this it's a.
Speaker 4 (23:13):
Recreational wager, you know, And that's the only way I
can phrase it. Yeah, sure, action, I mean sure, you
know we talk about all the time. You will Sunday
Christmas for sports betters, and it's fine to have a
bunch of action on this game. Everybody does wager sizes. Okay,
this is not a game that you're gonna say, oh
(23:35):
my god, these lines are every line's wrong, and these
guys are idiots.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
You know they're not idiots.
Speaker 4 (23:39):
I have a five percent big ticket play this week
because I have a really strong opinion on this game,
not because I think the line stinks. Line is fine,
line is where it should be. In general, more i've
seen more bank rollbusting for serious betters. March Madness opening weekend.
(23:59):
You have to bull Sunday. Don't blow your bankroll. It's
okay to get involved, but small fun action bets.
Speaker 2 (24:08):
This is not all right.
Speaker 4 (24:09):
I'm betting fifty dimes on this, that and the other.
It's not that type of day, at least not for me.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Now.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
Sure, but if you want to, if you want a
little coin on the coin toss, you know, so to speak,
things of that nature.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
It's always fun. Yeah, you have a little action.
Speaker 4 (24:23):
Of course, I'm not saying you'll bet anything this and that.
Speaker 2 (24:25):
I mean, and I'm surely not saying.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
You know, we only had one ten on the coin toss.
We know it's a negative expectation. Bet all right, I'm
not betting on the coin toss. If someone wants to
bet on the coin toss, I'm not gonna rip them
a new a hole for betting on the coin toss.
Go have a good time super Bowl Sunday, but don't
bet a thousand bucks or five thousand bucks on the
coin toss, you know. Yeah, I just want twenty bucks,
you know, and fifty bucks one hundred but whatever, you know,
(24:48):
keep your wager size is reasonable, and don't blow your
bank roll on Super Bowl Sunday. It can be a
dangerous day for betters. So that's the number one piece
of advice I can give.
Speaker 1 (25:02):
Shout out to the chat box, everybody chiming in backstage
tattoo in the house, we got memorabilia saying I left
out Mama Kelsey when kind of teeing up the chiefs there.
But yeah, it's feel free to throw out any questions
here in the live chat in the comments below on
the Wainter Talk YouTube channel, we got some Super Bowl
history coming up, Teddy, did you want to throw out
anything else before we get into the past super Bowl
(25:24):
games that might have an impact on the results here.
Speaker 4 (25:29):
I've talked side, I've talked total. I talked some of
the early props I saw. I gave you some quotes
after the games. I gave you some staff after the games.
We talked a little bit about the first Super Bowl
matchup between these two teams, and if you want, I
can talk a little bit more about that. Let me
pull up that box score real quick. I looked at
it pretty good last night. But you know, that was
(25:53):
a game where Philly Philly led by double digits at
halftime and Casey came on.
Speaker 2 (25:58):
Pretty strong in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 4 (26:01):
Eagles won first downs, Eagles eleven of eighteen on third
downs and two two on fourth downs. In that game,
Eagles out gained Casey four seventeen to three forty yards
per play k C six point four, Philly five point eight.
And Philly had the only turnover in the game. And
oh guess what, Eagles had more penalties than the Patrick
(26:21):
Mahomes team, just like we've seen in every playoff game
this year. The key to that game read zone, the
execution and football. Kansas City was able to run six
point one yards per carry one hundred and fifty eight
yards on the ground compared to three point six for Philadelphia,
and Philly had the one turnover that led to the
pick six or a fumble six, they don't remember, and
(26:42):
Philly had twice as many penalties as Kansas City. They
did win the time of possession thirty five to twenty
five in that contest. So again, it was a very
very close game. Casey rally from behind, and I would
not be surprised at all to see another close game
on Super Bowl Sunday is a matchup again with these
As we go through some Super Bowl history, we can
(27:03):
talk about how different the point spreads are in the
modern era than they were back in the blowout era
of Super Bowls, because it's crazy, how how sure these
spreads are. I mean again, last year case plus two
and a half, year four plus one and a half,
the Rams were four to four and a half against Cincinnati.
Tampa was a three point dog against Casey. Casey was
(27:23):
one and a half against San fran New England was
two and a half against La New England was four
against Philly. New England was three and a half against Atlanta.
Are three three and a half against Atlanta. So last
time we've seen anyone like you know plus five twenty sixteen,
when the Broncos beat the Panthers and oh yeah, Denver
was a dog in that game.
Speaker 3 (27:45):
Yeah, that was that Cam Newton in company for the Panthers. Teddy.
Speaker 1 (27:50):
Yeah, going back, I mean what you go back to,
like the nineties, there's thirteen and a half, eighteen and
a half, ten and a half, fourteen, eleven all in
like five for eight years. So we have come to
like new times here. Also want to throw out when
you brought up the last time Kansas City and Philadelphia played,
that was also in Glendale, you know, at Dome, and
(28:10):
that one went way over.
Speaker 3 (28:13):
You know that cash to be over pretty significantly.
Speaker 4 (28:17):
Sure, these are very different teams than those two teams,
all right. You know that was a Tyreek Hill team
for Kansas City. A year they didn't have whether they
didn't the defense, it was concerned for the Chiefs. And
then last year they spent all the money on defense.
And this is the last two years of defense has
been way better than it was in that time. Philadelphia
obviously this year with Barkley, you know, it's a very
(28:38):
different mentality for the Eagles, a very different game plan
for the Eagles, and what we saw in that last
Super Bowl where it wasn't about running the football. Philadelphia
is still there. Their strengths is always in the trenches
and that hasn't changed. Their defense is certainly better statistically
this year than it was for the previous Super Bowl run.
(29:00):
But it's not a scenario where that Yes, I'm interested
in looking back at the game two years ago, but
I'm not expecting a repeat. The other thing I wanted
to say is you talked about in the nineties and
in the eighties when we had all these blowouts, look
at the odds. All right, I'm just gonna go through
some games. You know, Saint Louis St. Louis minus seven
(29:22):
against Tennessee. That was the first Super Bowl the decade.
Saint Louis minus fourteen against New England. That was the
second Matt you know the year was the Patriots. That
was Tom Brady's first title. There were fourteen point dogs.
New England was a seven point favorite against Carolina and
didn't cover that Super Bowl. They were seven point favorites
(29:43):
against Philadelphia, didn't cover that. Pittsburgh was minus four four
and a half against Seattle, again more than a field goal.
Indy was minus seven against Chicago, they covered. New England
was minus twelve against the Giants. Giants won out right.
Pittsburgh was minus seven against Arizona, you know, in that
Super Bowl. So this is all times when I've been
in Vegas, you know, where it was seven the touchdown consistently.
(30:08):
You know, the Saints were five point dogs against the
Colts in twenty ten when Drew Brees won his title
and Sean Payton. So it's really been since then, you know,
the last fifteen years. And again we saw you know,
Denver was plus five, Baltimore was plus five against San
(30:28):
Francisco and when they won in that Colin Kaeperdick super Bowl,
and New Orleans was plus five against Indy. But that's
as high as we've seen, you know, in the last
fifteen years, whereas prior to that it was very normal
minus seven and higher year and year out. So the
nature of the NFL has changed. These games are tighter
(30:50):
now and the elite teams aren't as elite, and or
we're not seeing big underdogs. And of course, you know,
Philly the number two seed, Casey the number one seed.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
Both these teams have been qualities squads all year.
Speaker 4 (31:01):
And I've been near the top of everyone's power rings
all year, or certainly since you know, the back half
of the campaign or even though Casey struggled to cover
some point spreads, it wasn't like you were downrating them significantly.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
So this isn't one.
Speaker 4 (31:15):
On upstarts coming out of nowhere that's coming to play
to create a bigger point spread like on Arizona or
Carolina or a Denver team with a half dead Peyton Manny.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
So we're not we're not seeing the bigger point spreads.
Speaker 1 (31:31):
Yeah, I mean you bring up number one and number
two seeds. Also, what thirty four and five I believe
is the record combined. I mean, both of these two
teams with seventeen wins on the season. So just not
a lot of losing from either of these two teams
coming into the tight point spread. And Teddy, do want
to bring up more recently in Super Bowl history? First off,
the underdog is four to oh ats the last four years, guys,
(31:53):
three of them outright. Cash is now granted it's not
you know, big point spreads, but hey, the underdog has
been money here tc. Did you want to go over
you know, more recently or more in the future. Did
you want to go one by one? How do you
want to do this? So I feel like we spent hours.
Speaker 4 (32:10):
I just have I have somebody like one of the
things that I have is a lot of Super Bowl
you know, experience and memories because live in Las Vegas
for twenty seven years.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
Uh you get those.
Speaker 4 (32:23):
And I thought it might be fun to go through
some of these games just oh I remember that, Oh
I remember this.
Speaker 2 (32:27):
Oh this is who I bet.
Speaker 4 (32:29):
But I want to do a quick hitter and I
don't know if we have if you have time, we
could do it. We can start with my super first
supe Bowl out here. I just rattle ship off. I
was right on that one ast Atlanta.
Speaker 2 (32:42):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, that's what I'll know.
Speaker 4 (32:45):
I still so that's my first shop Bowl out here.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
I don't even think.
Speaker 4 (32:49):
I hadn't even who covers dot Com hadn't even been
I registered the u r L. But that I was
still I was making my reputation posting on internet forums
about uh uh. And I wasn't even on radio yet
or anything. And I had a buddy coming to town
for the Super Bowl. We stayed up all night and
at like seven in the morning, we're like, Okay, we
(33:10):
gotta bet this, we gotta get bat We're tragging over
in Failler Palace and I and I was worried about fighting.
See we slept until kickoff and got up. I was like,
oh crap, we gotta go, you know, And that ended
up being really easy. I had Denver remindus the points
in that game. I really enjoyed it, even with the
There was a kicker return touchdown was at Tim Dwight.
(33:30):
I think it was for for Atlanta. That was my
first sup of ball in town. The next year was
the was the push. That's the longest line I've ever seen.
I watched that game at mantle A Bay and after
the game it was a push. Didn't matter which side
you had. Everyone, you know, there was some seven and
a half, There was some six and a half. That
was a game where McNair's pass came a yard short,
(33:53):
but every single person who made a bet had to
get a refund at the Mintu seven line after the
game was as long as I've ever seen any sportsbook
line in my life. And then includes the west Gate
on Prop night. It was a chaos after that Super Bowl,
really exciting game Baltimore against the Giants. Side of that one, right,
(34:13):
you know, the Ravens minus the points and Giants were
took took them with all the money. On game day,
Baltimore was minus three at the open that game. Close
pick them. The Giants fans were coming in like it
was done. Was that Kerry Collins?
Speaker 2 (34:24):
I like that one? That was nice and easy.
Speaker 4 (34:26):
The Patriots beating the Rams was one where I learned
a lesson. That was the last time that I'm like,
Vegas wants Vegas thinks, Vegas wants Vegas thinks. And that's
where I kind of learned that. You know, I'm like,
this line can't be fourteen. Vegas clearly wants you to
take New England. So I took say Lewis. That wasn't
(34:47):
a fun super Bowl. I watched that one at MGM.
I thought I hung out with Charles Barkley before that
Super Bowl. Barkley was that was with a buddy who
was a big player. So I'm friends with Bobby Flay
and his management group at at his restaurants.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
And this is one of my buddies who went to
Michigan with me. He was in that group.
Speaker 4 (35:07):
He was in the high roller room at the MGM
and Barkley was in there as well. And that was
the day where but the sportsbook director for Mandalay took
that big bet from Barkley and then didn't get it
signed or whatever because he was over at the MGM,
and then got fired afterwards a result because he took
New England on the money line. That was fun any
interesting super Bowl. So even though the wrong side in
(35:29):
that one, Oh, this was one of my favorites. Tampa
blowing out of Oakland. I watched that at a bar
with all the guys from the Tuesday group and I
had Tampa. I had Tampa large, we all had Tampa
and that was fun and it was over early and
there was no sweat and I got drunk that day.
I don't drink a lot Drew, you know. I was
(35:49):
at the bar. My wife drove me home from that
super Bowl. The right side there, New England, I'm for
the tune. The next to New England, Carolina, New England,
Philly and them both being really hard for me.
Speaker 2 (36:02):
Were unlike this super Bowl. This super Bowl I knew
you know again line came out.
Speaker 4 (36:06):
I'm like, bang, let's go, and I posted it last
night and I'm ready to load up on you know.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
I made my bet and got it down for the clients.
Boom boom.
Speaker 4 (36:15):
It doesn't always work that way. And those were back
to back years where I'm like, New England's too high.
I don't want to step in front of New England.
New Elands too hig, I don't want step in front
New England. I end up with totals and I actually
got them both right. I got the over in the
first one, New England Carolina and that game was nothing,
nothing into the second quarter, and then when nuts in
the second quarter, and then when the third quarter was
scoring us again in the fourth quarter, went nuts. And
(36:37):
then the following year it gets the Philly the Eagles.
I had under in that and that was a sweat
and half, but it got there. That was the donomcmaon
puking game. Pittsburgh Seattle. All my wise guy friends were like, Seattle, Seattle, Seattle.
Speaker 2 (36:49):
Pittsburgh's the number. They were the sixth seed at the time.
Speaker 4 (36:51):
They're like Seattle, and I'm like, no, I'd be the
sixth seed, but they're freaking hot right now, and don't
worry about seating so much. There's a reason that this
the team that was the sixth seed is the favorite
in the Super Bowl. I had Pittsburgh there and went
against all my buddies, and I enjoyed that game regardless,
and they were all complaining about the bad calls, which
there were a few.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
Of in that contest Indie Chicago. Oh, this one was
awful for me, Dree awful. Here's a story for you,
all right.
Speaker 4 (37:24):
I'm in a contest and an offshore book, and if
I win, I win fifty dimes. If I lose, I
win twenty dimes. I'm playing for first or second place.
Big contest. Excited about the score, contest strategy says, I
have to I'm supposed to be on the dog because
the other guy was.
Speaker 2 (37:40):
In the favorite, or I forget how it worked out.
I ended up on Chicago in the game. Chicago was wrong.
Speaker 4 (37:47):
I hedged at halftime, and then the book that I
was supposed to get the twenty dimes from went out
of business the next day.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
So I lost my bet.
Speaker 4 (37:56):
I lost my head's bet and I never got paid.
Speaker 2 (38:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (38:01):
Uh, I could swear here for a moment, but I
wrote Lenny from Cascade, Oh man, you member that guy?
Speaker 2 (38:13):
I remember that guy. Anyhow, it was a disaster for me.
I lost the contest.
Speaker 4 (38:17):
Me to me, nor the winner got paid and I
lost every bet that I made and it was a really,
really shitty super Bowl and I watched it at home
by myself. It was quiet because I'm like, I got
to be able to think and hedge at halftime.
Speaker 2 (38:29):
It's the big deal. And well it didn't work out
for me, not at all.
Speaker 4 (38:36):
Uh Giants Patriots the first one that was a year
where New England was that was a monster and won
every game until the Giants beat them.
Speaker 2 (38:47):
I did not have geem and that was another one.
Speaker 4 (38:49):
The books lost that game, all right, The books don't
lose a lot of super Bowls, and they lost that game.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
I lost with.
Speaker 4 (38:56):
Them Pittsburgh Arizona.
Speaker 2 (38:59):
That was fun when I love that game. So I
keep going here too.
Speaker 4 (39:03):
I can go on and on.
Speaker 2 (39:04):
I feel like I'm still but Pittsburgh Arizona.
Speaker 4 (39:07):
I watched that at Brian Leonard's house with a whole
bunch of the Bunch of Tuesday group guys were there
and it was actually I was at a party beforehand
and got there late. One of the Austro Back in
those days, the Oustos would throw these crazy parties in Vegas.
You know, I'm crazy parties. The parties you know, like, oh,
I would love to get invited to that party. I
(39:27):
went to a couple of them, but then I went
and watched the game with my buddies. I had Arizona
plus the points and that ninety nine one hundred and
one yard pick six whatever it was right before halftime.
I don't think I've ever been more confident super Bowl
than I was with Arizona that year. I'm like Kurt Owners,
bringing them back, It'll be fine. And Plaxico caught a
touchdown to win the game. Arizona got the money. Larry
Fitzgerald came in large for me in the second half
(39:49):
of that contest, and that was a real fun super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (39:52):
And again, you'd like to be right.
Speaker 4 (39:54):
And I don't know why I was so confident in
Arizona that year. I just they're covering the Drew Brees
game against Peyton Manning. That wasn't a good game for me.
I didn't enjoy that. A couple of Green Bay against
Pittsburgh that was a good one for That was the
one that I did the movie for which you know,
(40:16):
I was on camera the whole time and we won,
so I ended up looking smart. But that was the
sweat and half for Charda Mannahall fumble the key in
that bugger? How do you remember this shit? I don't
know how I remember this shit? What else we got green?
Then the Giants beating the Patrick Patriots again, Baltimore San Franz,
the Colin Kaepernick Super Bowl where I bet I live
(40:39):
bet san fran and before that last drive and Kaepernick
got him down to what the four yard line and
then they didn't get him in for the win. That
was frustrating. Seattle Denver was one that I loved.
Speaker 2 (40:49):
That was easy. I had Seattle plus and that was
the first play of the game. Is of safety.
Speaker 4 (40:54):
I'm like, this game's over. I was late getting to
where I was going. I'm like, I got I walked in.
I'm like, this game's over. Just don't even sweat it was.
I drank that day too.
Speaker 2 (41:01):
We want to bottle at the quila.
Speaker 4 (41:04):
I can't drink the kila, dude. I was pugan uh
anyhow where was I juwe You can feel free, feel
free to jump in anytime. Here uh the way, all
New England pick him against Seattle. I was on camera
for that one too, down at the West Gate. So
and to this day, I don't blame the play call.
All right, I don't blame when Russell Wilson let that
(41:25):
pass go. He thought it was a touchdown, so did I.
That was Bill Belichick making an incredible coach. You know,
he coached him to slid and to slide in on
that play. I read a thou I read like five
articles afterwards. I don't blame the play call. That game sucked.
I made a big bet on Seattle right before as
they started that drive on the money line at the
(41:46):
West Gate. And that was one that was on camera too.
That one sucked. Yeah, I didn't enjoy that.
Speaker 2 (41:52):
Uh Denver against Carolina. I was.
Speaker 4 (41:54):
I don't know why I was always as manning in
the Super Bowl as it was pretty stupid. I was
wrong on that Of all that one, That Super Bowl
really pissed me off because I wasn't I mean, I
wasn't close to be. I felt like I should have
known better, and I don't like to, you know, my handicaps.
I don't like being wrong, especially on big games, and
I was. I couldn't have been more wrong. Was a
(42:15):
bad handicap. I've bitched enough about twenty eight to three
next year's Patriots Falcons.
Speaker 2 (42:22):
That being said, I've never been.
Speaker 4 (42:23):
You know, I talked about all confidence I was New
England about in Arizona. When when it was twenty eight
to three, I felt pretty good. When it was twenty
eight to nine, I felt pretty good. And then Atlanta
was in field goal range. But we're not going to
go over that ever again. I kept thinking the Brady
ones wrong. I had a lot.
Speaker 2 (42:39):
I was so glad when Brady retired.
Speaker 4 (42:40):
I got Brady wrong with Philly, I got Brady wrong
against the Rams, I got Brady wrong against Tampa.
Speaker 2 (42:48):
That being said, the last three have been real good.
Speaker 4 (42:50):
We had Cincy fluster points, we had Casey and in
each of the last two years, and they've been tight.
All three of the last three super Bowls have all
been decided by exactly three points.
Speaker 2 (43:02):
But they've all been good for me. They've all been
good for my clients.
Speaker 4 (43:04):
So I can go back in the nineties, Drew, I
got a lot of Super Bowl memories, Almaved's and how
much stuff this is not gonna remember.
Speaker 2 (43:11):
Form a long time ago asked me what I had
for breakfast this morning? Nothing. I can't remember.
Speaker 3 (43:17):
No.
Speaker 1 (43:18):
I like the recap there, Teddy, I mean just a
couple like tidbits here you started what well near the
start two thousand and three, it was Tampa Bay Oakland
and you said you got drunk that game, So did
Oakland Center if you remember?
Speaker 2 (43:32):
He like, was it final? He went to Tana of course?
Speaker 4 (43:36):
Yeah, yeah, you went to Tijuana disappeared and the.
Speaker 2 (43:40):
Raiders were in trouble before that.
Speaker 4 (43:41):
But that certainly didn't help things.
Speaker 2 (43:44):
No, no, not at all.
Speaker 1 (43:46):
Trying to think of another I had a couple of
things that I wanted to throw out that Okay, New Orleans,
Indianapolis and Miami twenty ten. I was at that game, Teddy.
It sounded like you had a kind of a wild
story with that one. I actually my cousin was dating
girl who was a dancer from the halftime show, and
they needed guys to hold the lights. So we actually
took a bus down there as part of the group
(44:07):
and went and I told up the lights at halftime
and then walking out to the bus and we actually
like we were going to the bathroom and just left
the group. So I actually got to watch the second
half of the super Bowl for free. The problem is
I didn't have a ride home, so that was a
long night in Miami gardens.
Speaker 2 (44:27):
I had.
Speaker 1 (44:29):
Two thousand and nine, Pittsburgh, Arizona. My appendix ruptured the
next day. That was a terrible super Bowl for me.
Speaker 2 (44:36):
That was the worst.
Speaker 1 (44:36):
I had the worst Super Bowl out of anybody watching this.
That one one of the worst days of my life.
Speaker 2 (44:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (44:42):
Yeah, it was when your stomach's hurting for like three
straight days and your friends are telling you to just
drink through it.
Speaker 2 (44:49):
Don't listen to them. Shit is my advice.
Speaker 1 (44:52):
Yeah, drink, drink Drake, No, no, don't do that. Twenty sixteen, Denver, Carolina.
You said you were I think, on the wrong side
of that one. But you can understand why I was
with you. You know, that was Cam cam Newton's Super
Bowl or MVP season, and you know they were rolling
and but you could just tell he got hit a
couple of times in the beginning of the game and
(45:12):
he had that towel over his head.
Speaker 3 (45:14):
That's not the Cam Newton you want to be betting on.
So I was with you on that one as well.
Speaker 4 (45:19):
It was it was one where I was unhappy with
my handicap of the game. You know, the majority of
these games, I've been happy, well win or lose, I've
been happy with my handicap, a handful of them looking
at you know, a post post game. I wasn't happy
at all of that one. I'm like, you just got
that wrong. You know, you just flat I got that wrong.
And I don't like to get super Bowls wrong. Nobody
(45:41):
liked that. I don't like doing anything wrong, but I.
Speaker 2 (45:42):
Particularly don't like to get super Bowls wrong.
Speaker 4 (45:45):
You know, you know you're not gonna win all of them.
Try to, but realistically you're not gonna win all of them.
But yeah, I don't like being on wrong. I'm wrong.
And there were a handful of those, you know, I
mean the one the Patriots rams where I'm still thought, oh,
Vegas is trying to tell us something, and that was
the That's that's where I learned that lesson, and I
learned it hard and fast. You know, Vegason, try to
(46:08):
tell you something. That's what the points bread is and
if you want to, if you want the right side,
take it.
Speaker 3 (46:14):
For sure, especially in this game.
Speaker 1 (46:16):
They're looking for two A action because they're going to
get so much of it anyway, they're not.
Speaker 3 (46:20):
Yeah, well, teddy Man, great great recap, great show overall.
Speaker 1 (46:24):
I know we're running upgainst the time wise, but did
you want to throw out anything else before we shut
this down?
Speaker 2 (46:30):
So a couple of things worth noting. Let's promote for
a minute.
Speaker 4 (46:33):
I do a five percent big ticket up and available
right now for Super Bowl Sunday. You can get it
at my page w dot buzz backslash TC. Don't buy
the play. Actually, the seven day all Access won't go
through the Super Bowl Sunday, so you can buy the play.
But we also got this great deal on seven day
all access right now. Seven day All Access or seventy
seven bucks. You get every play, every day and every
sport for the next seven days. Again, no more pro
(46:56):
no promo code needed. The NBA is finally going drew
eighty percent week last week. The NFL playoffs have been
real good eighty percent here in the postseason. So my
college hoop stinks. I'm not putting out of college hoops
a whole lot of it right now.
Speaker 2 (47:12):
But the NBA and the NFL are both in good
current form.
Speaker 4 (47:15):
Visit my paye WT, dot buzz backs last TC to
get on board. And boy, when it comes to the likes,
the comments, you guys are so good.
Speaker 2 (47:23):
Thank you.
Speaker 4 (47:24):
We appreciate them each and every week. Like comment and
subscribe to the Way You're Talking YouTube channel.
Speaker 1 (47:30):
Please absolutely, guys, and any super Bowl questions fire away
in the comments below, because we'll be back on next
Monday going over Yes the side in total again, but
mostly the props, So fire away any questions in the
comments below, Guys, Teddy and myself will be in there
throughout the week chiming it up with you.
Speaker 2 (47:47):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (47:48):
I have a five percent MAXI limit going tonight, so
if you're looking for college basketball action off the four
to oh sweep of the weekend, five percent are up
tonight and check out Teddy covers five percent. Big ticket
in the Super Bowl sounds like a good one there
at TC. I think I might join you on it,
so amen, great show overall.
Speaker 4 (48:07):
Sure as all way, Look, I love doing the show.
I love doing it with you, and I appreciate that
every time I go through the comments each week, and
thanks Teddy, thanks Drew. Great show. It just makes it
makes it makes me smile, So thank you, guys. I
appreciate your positive response in a world with so much negativity.
I appreciate the positivity on the opening line report and
(48:28):
we'll do it again next week. Throw those questions in
Drew and I will answer as many questions we can.
Next week, we'll we'll throw a ball the props, we'll
talk about where the money's flowing, what we expect to
see before kickoff, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 2 (48:38):
But we'll do I'll answer every question that I.
Speaker 4 (48:40):
Can, so put them in the comments, tweet them at
us at Teddy Underscore Covers at Drew Martin Bett's and
we'll answer those on next week's shows.
Speaker 2 (48:49):
Bet with your head not over it.
Speaker 4 (48:51):
Come on, guys, don't be stupid, but enjoy the game
and good luck and thanks for watching the boys your
talk TeV for.
Speaker 3 (48:58):
Teddy Covers on Drew Martin.
Speaker 1 (48:59):
That's going to do it. Guys, we'll be back next week.
Come back and join us. Comment below, smash that like button,
Thanks for tuning in. Cash those tickets