NFL Opening Line Report | 2024 NFL Week 16 Odds, Picks and Predictions | December 16, 2024 - NFL Opening Line Report

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome into the NFL Opening Line Report for week number sixteen.
I am Drew Martin, joined as always by Teddy Cover.
It's getting you on the right side of some of
these moves, both sides and totals for the upcoming NFL
week Without further ado, Teddy Covers, Welcome on in, Buddy.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
Happy Monday morning to you. Yeah, it's not that happy
of Monday, Drew.

Speaker 3 (00:19):
I got my ass kicked all weekend, and then I
was shaving before I came to the show, and of
course I sliced my nose open, so hopefully I won't
believe too bad. I got the tissue here just in case.
But unfortunately, Yeah, it was not a good weekend. That's
putting a milely, but a really awful weekend for myself
and my clients. You're never in a good mood on
Monday when that happens. That being said, bad weekends can
and will happen. Unfortunately, yesterday I threw out my winners

(00:42):
and kept my losers, and my losers were frustrating and
YadA YadA. So what do we do on a Monday.
We put it in the rearview mirror and focus ahead
on this week. Can't do anything about what happened yesterday,
but we can do plenty about what's going to happen
here in week six, Week sixteen. So ready to break
it down with you, Drew. Eighteen games, because we've got
two on Monday.

Speaker 1 (01:02):
Night, absolutely, Teddy, no bye weeks, and guys, only a
couple weeks left in the regular season. As you mentioned here, Teddy,
we've got two Monday nighters and we are doing this
as always, guys, Monday mornings. So before we get into
the opening line report, we got the Chicago Bears Minnesota
Vikings Vikings minus seven forty four being the total, and

(01:24):
we got the Atlanta Falcons Las Vegas Raiders Teddy, Falcons
minus five and a half, minus six forty four and
a hook being the total, two games simultaneous, thirty minutes
in between them, well in terms of when they're kicking off,
but anything quickly on the Monday nighters before we get
into the OLR.

Speaker 3 (01:42):
So the books are clearly struggling to attract money for
either of the two underdogs in tonight's game. We've seen
the Vikings open six six and a half. They're even
five and a halfs out there at the open now
We're seeing pretty much sevens across the board. There four Minnesota,
so we've seen Minnesota money. I don't anticipate any significant
buye back on Chicago between now and kickoff. I would

(02:02):
not be shocked at all if the Vikings close seven
minus twenty or even seven and a half at some books.
As for Atlanta and the Raiders, there really isn't much
betting the market support for the Raiders right now either.
This one open as low as three and a half.
Now I'm seeing five and a halfs across the board.
Six is popping up at a number of books. So
the Raiders, like the Bears, one of the teams the

(02:24):
betting markets, the bookmakers are really struggling to attract attention
for on Monday night. Total wise, we've seen a little
bit of under money for Chicago, Minnesota. Nothing doing for
Falcons Raiders that's been sitting at forty four and a
half all week.

Speaker 1 (02:39):
Great start here, Teddy is we got the opening line
reports starting Thursday night, guys with a good one AFC
West battle here the Denver Broncos and the La Chargers. Teddy,
we're seeing Chargers minus three point home favorites forty two
being the total rotation number one two three, one two four.
Broncos catching three on the highway last weekend, looking pretty good.

(03:00):
What are we thinking here, Broncos and Chargers to kick
us off, Yeah, we.

Speaker 3 (03:04):
Like to do the same thing for every show. I'm
gonna give you four sets of lines for each and
every one of these ball games. The first one we
call the look aheadline. That's the betting market number for
this game before yesterday's games were played, lookheadlines. I use
it from the Westgate Superbook here in Las Vegas. I'm
also gonna give in my powering number for the game.

(03:24):
We're gonna talk about where it opened last night and
where it's sitting this morning. So look aheadline here for
Broncos at Broncos and the Chargers was Chargers minus three
minus one twenty total of forty three and a half.
My power ating number as a Chargers only two in
this ballgame. The markets opened three and forty two last night,

(03:47):
and that's basically where we're sitting today, three and forty
two this morning. You know. I mean, Denver was not
a pretty game yesterday. They only had thirteen first downs,
only one hundred and ninety three total yards. They had
seventeen third down they weren't making a whole big play
the only converted on six of them. Bow Nick said
his first three interception game of his career, and they
still won. Going away, Denver is still perfect as a

(04:09):
favorite this season. Lots of concerns. You know, the defense
forced four turnovers. They got very lucky with Jonathan Taylor
fumbling at the one inch line. That was the fifth
turnover that they forced or they got, and that was
the key play of the game. Really, I mean, Dever
would have been down twenty to seven in the third
quarter and after that fumble from Taylor and the Broncos

(04:30):
I was going him twenty four to seven, sorry, twenty
four to nothing. The rest of the way, bow Knicks
is their leading rusher yesterday eight carries for twenty three yards.
That's not good, you know, not good at all in
that regard. Just three point nine yards per pass attempt
in yesterday's ball game. But you know, and worth noting

(04:52):
star cornerback Patrick Certain lipped over to the sideline but
they sprained right ankle. Don't have any notes on him
yet for today, but you know the quote from Seohn
Payton after the winning cover for Denver. It won't be
fun looking at the tape. Den were able to survive
in advance despite not playing their best game. The Chargers
didn't play their best game either, but they weren't surviving

(05:15):
and advancing. Yesterday, blown out at home by Tampa Bay
Justin Herbert, you know, five point nine yards per pass attempt.
The defense allowed ten point seven yards per passive. Herbert
was his first interception since Week two, three hundred and
fifty seven attempts without a pick. Quote. It is what
it is. I always try to protect them all, do
my best not to put our teams in harm's way. Unfortunately,

(05:36):
that one got away from me. That was obviously the
fifth longest streak in league history between interceptions. But no
running game yesterday. You know, they were out rushed two
twenty three to thirty two. They led seventeen to thirteen
and a half time, got out scored twenty seven to nothing.
After the break, they got out game by three hundred yards.
Worst game of the defense for the worst game of
the season for the defense as well, you know, Harball quote.

(06:01):
It was pretty thorough talked about the beatdown, very thorough
and now we're staring at that diversity and it's about
how we respond. All favor wasn't good enough today? Bounce
back spot for the Chargers? Are they good enough to
take advantage that offense really hasn't worked for the better
part of the last month.

Speaker 1 (06:20):
Thursday Night, getting us started, guys, Teddy, great stat there
week two to week fifteen, no interceptions.

Speaker 2 (06:26):
I'm surprised that's not.

Speaker 1 (06:27):
The longest in NFL history, but yeah, I could start
here Thursday Night. We'll flip the page to Saturday, December twenty. First,
we got two games on Saturday. Interesting the NFL College
football playoffs kind of going head to head up against
each other. Usually don't see that, but either way, Teddy,
it's Houston in Kansas City. We are seeing the Texans
coming off of that win against the Dolphins minus three

(06:49):
point road favorites forty being the total. Interesting point spread
here Texans as the road favorite. I know you're going
to get into that kicking us off on Saturday, TC.

Speaker 3 (06:59):
Sure, look ahead line here Kansas City minus four total
of forty four and a half. I made a seven
point difference between Patrick Mahomes and his backup, which is
and maybe that's not even enough. Carson Wentz didn't know
we see Carson Wentz ever again in an NFL game,

(07:19):
but we did yesterday finished two for two for twenty
yards after Mahomes hurt his ankle. Obviously this is that
Patrick Mahomes is not going to play points. But my
number here again, look at four forty four and a half.
My number with Mahomes, Casey minus four and a half
without Mahomes, Houston minus two and a half. The markets
opened Houston minus two and a half forty and a

(07:42):
half last night. We're seeing the threes popping up today,
the total getting bet down as well. The betting markets
do not respect Carson Wentz and that's pretty clear with
these numbers. As Houston now Road Chalk at Arrowhead. I
mean the Chiefs they got out to a twenty one
nothing will lead. Yesterday they were plus six and turnovers

(08:02):
and didn't do anything in the second half. You know,
ten wins by seven points or less. Six of their
wins this season have come on the game's final play.
They got Harrison Butkerleck in the back of the lineup
and he missed a short field goal. So the backup
kickers have been better. Here's the quote from Patrick Mahomes
quote we'll get into the rehab part, the treatment part,
and try to get back on a short week. They

(08:22):
played three games in eleven days. With all the adrenaline
from the game, it's hard to tell now after if
you could play usual the day after when you get
a good sense of it. So the markets not expecting
to see Mahomes on Saturday, hence all the Texans money here,
at least for the opener. That being said, I mean
the Texans won yesterday only because Miami lost. Their offense

(08:43):
really didn't work. Joe Mixon couldn't run the football twelve
carries for twenty three yards. CJ. Stroud one hundred and
thirty one yards on twenty six pass attempts. He was
sacked four times. They only had twelve first downs. They
only had three point six yards per play. Houston did
not bring their a game on the offense against the Dolphinsluckily,
their defense was able to create turnovers, luckily for some people,

(09:03):
not for me to Beiko Ryan's Defensively, our guys stepped
up and did a really good job of closing out
the game the way we needed to. And we like
teams that can win in multiple ways. Houston yesterday, despite
nothing doing offensively. The defense was good enough. Kansas City.
It feels like they've been living on borrow time for
a long time. And yet the Chiefs actually got a

(09:24):
win and cover by margins, something they struggled to do
for extended stretches this season.

Speaker 1 (09:31):
And we got the nightcap up next. What it's three
thirty eastern, four to thirty eastern. I believe it's the
Pittsburgh Steelers in Baltimore Ravens up next, minus six minus
six and a half here mostly six in the hooks.
That's the Ravens as the home favorite. Forty five in
the hook being the total Steelers at Ravens for the
second game on Saturday TC.

Speaker 3 (09:53):
Yeah, look headline here Baltimore minus five total of forty seven.
My powering number, Baltimore minus six. The markets opened six
and a half and forty six and a half last night,
and that's basically what we're seeing today. We've seen some
under money forty six and a half bet down to
forty five and a half. Even forty five's popping up
for Steelers Ravens right now. So the first market move

(10:16):
on this game has been towards the under, and I
mean Pittsburgh pretty dismal offensively yesterday. Russell Wilson just one
hundred and twenty eight passing yards. Team just had fifty
six rushing yards. No, George Pickens certainly mattered for that offense.
That being said, they were down twenty to thirteen. They
were driving. It was first and ten from the Philly
twenty six, and they were about to make a game

(10:37):
of it. And then Russell Wilson pitched I think with
Jalen Warren, and warren't didn't catch it, and Philly got
a touchdown on the next drive and Pittsburgh never really
threatened again. No, only had ten first downs for the game. There.
You know, time of possession forty to twenty in favor
of Philadelphia. You know seven to two their last nine games.
They told couldn't a playoff spot in defeat because the
Dolphins and Colts both lost TJ. Watt injured. That could

(11:02):
potentially be an impact injury. He had two sacks and
a forced fumble before he was hurt in that ballgame.
Mike Tomlin, we had a game to play today. We
wanted to win it.

Speaker 2 (11:12):
We didn't.

Speaker 3 (11:12):
Some of the other stuff is less relevant to us.
Talking about gaining the playoff spot, despite the fact that
they didn't play well. So we got Pittsburgh Golf a loss,
which has been a bet on scenario. The Ravens looked
pretty good yesterday. I mean Lamar Jackson four complete passes
versus five touchdowns, that's a pretty good ratio. Four in completes,

(11:34):
five td passes. He did an early fumble from the
Giants twelve yard line and that kind of set the
tone for the game. Lamar afterwards quote, I started out
slow with that turnover. I was hot about that. I
was ticked off. I just had to lock in and
play Ravens football, and that's what we did. So the
early misqueue ended up in an effect motivating of Baltimore
and again yards for play seven point five on offense,

(11:56):
only three point nine allowed on defense. Etch of three
games in eleven days for Baltimore, they got to manage minutes.
Harbow after the game quote talking about Lamar Jackson, He's
been locked in all season, all week. He's on the
guys in meetings, walk throughs, everything he's keeping about football,
and he's getting the football right. The Ravens very much
looking like a Super Bowl contender in the AFC, despite

(12:20):
Kansas City and Buffalo, both ahead of them in the standings.

Speaker 1 (12:26):
Great breakdown TC man three games in eleven days. Something
to watch there with the Ravens says, we'll turn the
turn the page here. Sunday, December twenty second. Top of
the card one on one, one O two Cleveland and Cincinnati.
It is the Bengals TC minus seven point home favorites
forty nine in the hook being the total Browns Bengals
first game up on Sunday, and.

Speaker 3 (12:48):
I apologize, I didn't do my eye. There's one of
these games that was flexed in and flexed out, and
I don't have my powering number for let me see
if I could pull it up real quick, I could
create one, barely quickly, because twenty powering numbers right here, Cincinnati,
sure and Cleveland three and a half five my number

(13:08):
of my party number the games five and a half.
Market's look headline was Bengals six and a half, fifty
and a half my party numbers five and a half.
The market's opened seven slash forty nine and a half
a last night, and we're looking at seven forty nine
and a half this morning. Not a lot doing with
this game. In early betting action. Don't know who's gonna
start here for Cleveland. You know, maybe I should have,

(13:31):
maybe I have the Browns notch you out. Their defense
played okay yesterday. Look, Jamis came in and threw the picks.
You know, he threw three interceptions after twenty five pass
attmpts one hundred and forty six yards and he got benched.
And Dorian Thompson Robinson came in and he was emorse
four to nine for eighteen yards, no touchdowns, one receptions.
The offense at six turnovers, defense didn't force any you know,

(13:53):
Kevin Stefanski, you cannot turn the ball over six times
and expect to win at any level. That being said,
they were all over my own homes. They pressured homes
twenty twenty one times in that game. That's the mostly
has been pressured all season. But the offense didn't work,
and that may well be the case and moving forward,
the Bengals offenses working. I mean, they had four turnovers yesterday,

(14:15):
they had fourteen penalties for one hundred and thirteen yards,
and they won the game by double digits, which speaks
to the fact that defense created ten turnovers and they
turned created six turnovers turned those six turnovers into twenty
four straight points in the middle of the game. They'd
have picked six and the third, and they just missed
out on more points. They had a sixty one yard
fumble return except for that Jordan Battle fumbled just before

(14:38):
crossing the goal ended up being a touchback in that
ball game. Zach Taylor quote, unacceptable, but really happy. The
way the defense got the turnovers six turnovers, three of
them in the second half, was huge. Rusher was a
strange game that way. Burrow now has three d passes
three touchdown passes in six straight games. Only quarterbacks with
more Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino. Burrows

(15:02):
having an MVP caliber season. The defense surrounding him has
not been MVP caliber thus far this year. Cleveland defensively
they all right, funny game, interesting game again. Seven is
sitting right now forty nine and a half. Bengals are
very much an overteam. Browns not so much in that regard,

(15:24):
especially when Jamis is forcing picks in. The defense is
playing like they did yesterday.

Speaker 1 (15:29):
Getting the Sunday card going shout out to the chat box,
everybody chiming in. Jamar from Texas. Shout out to you,
Jave Cash, be Daddy in the house, Roger Long as well.
All you guys feel free to chime in any questions
fire away as well. What you're looking at, where you agree,
where you disagree, All is welcome. If you're watching on replay,
feel free to comment in the comments below. We'll answer

(15:51):
any questions on next week's show. Guys, shout out to
you as well. Coin As we're moving down the list
here one O seven to one to eight Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears, Lions minus six in the hook minus seven.
Kind of a split line here, Teddy forty six in
a hook being the total in Soldier.

Speaker 3 (16:09):
The look aheadline here Detroit minus seven and a half
total forty eight and a half. My powering number has
a lions minus eight. The market's opened seven and forty
seven last night and we're seeing six and a half today.
And again this week's number with Chicago against Minnesota looked
a little bit low, and we talked about it last
week on the show and saying, yeah, yeah, my power
numbers a little bit higher. And I'm not the only

(16:31):
one that I talked to around town this week that
said yeah, yeah, we're seeing the Bears being powered a
little bit higher in the broader markets than in a
lot of our individual power ratings. Of course, the Detroit's
coming off a loss, which is a motivator, particularly when
you're talking about trying to get home field advantage in
the NFC. And look, they still won first downs thirty

(16:53):
another thirty first downs for Detroit yesterday. Man, that offense
is a machine, five for five red zone touchdowns, you know,
Jared Goff playing from behind. Thirty eight completions, four hundred
and ninety four yards, five touchdowns, no picks. Impressive offensively,
although much of that was when they were trailing by
margin against Buffalo. The defense couldn't get any stops and

(17:17):
they gave up eight point two yards per play yesterday.
Hard to win games is a favorite when you're allowing
eight point two yards per play. And to make things
worse for Detroit, note this this is a team that
has suffered a ton of defensive injuries. They could have
lost three players with potential season ending injury yesterday. The
defensive tackle Allen McNeil, the quarterback Carlton Davis, the defensive

(17:38):
back Khalil Dorsey, all potentially season ending injuries yesterday. That's
bad news for a defense that has you know, we
know Detroit can score. We worry about Detroit getting stops,
and that hasn't been the case for extended stretches this season.
The Vikings, you know, Monday Night football against Sorry the

(17:59):
Bear's Monday Night Foo again to the Vikings tonight. They're
all in seven since that Hail Mary fail against Washington.
They have the three light tight losses Green Bay, Minnesota,
Detroit in Division all by a field goal or less,
and then last week blown out by San Francisco another
divisional game. Tonight, the Bears look good. If they look good,

(18:19):
I still think Detroit closes seven. I do. I know
they're six and a half out there right now for
the Lions. If you like the Lions, I wouldn't hesitate
to get one of those sooner Revan later. If Chicago
looks bad tonight, it'll be seven everywhere or higher by tomorrow.
If the Bears are competitive tonight, them could be a
different story. But I don't think it's going to be
any lower than six and a half for Detroit. And
then again, you can find a couple of those right now.

(18:41):
DraftKings has one as we speak. Westgate has one as
we speak. MGM has one as we speak. They may
not be there for all that much longer.

Speaker 1 (18:50):
One O nine, one ten Up next Arizona Cardinals. We
are the Cardinals minus four point favorites four seven being
the total air Arizona at Carolina, next game up.

Speaker 3 (19:03):
Yeah, look aheadline here Arizona minus four and a half,
forty six and a half. My powering number Arizona minus four.
The markets opened four and forty six and a half
last night and that's exactly where we're sitting this morning.
So the look ahead, my power rating, the opener, the
current all in this same basic range of Arizona as
four point chalk. And you know, Arizona's a in one

(19:24):
says they're a simple handicap. When they can run, they win,
you know, when they can't run. Kyler Murray's not carrying
the offense, and they struggled mightily in the red zone,
but yesterday snapped a three game losing streak. Games Connor
sixteen carries for one hundred and ten yards of finish
with one hundred and sixty three yards on the ground,
and that led to ten of fifteen third down conversions.

(19:45):
You know, third and shorts and they're converting. They allowed
over allow a single third down conversion all game. For
what it's worth, Kyler Murray co I think that was
the key, staying on schedule. We're hard to stop when
we're staying on the field on third downs. You know,
it's always his box score lies because the yards for play.
Who's the pat six point three and the cardinal six
point two. But Arizona led this game twenty three to

(20:08):
three in the fourth quarter, and at least half of
New England's yards came in garbage time. A couple of
key injuries for Arizona five plays into the game. They
lost two starting line backs. Of the injury, Mac Wilson
and Jesse Looketta both got hurt early. Jonathan Gannon after
the game quote, it's a cool thing for me. Roles
changed like that in the ballgame. They step up, play
good football. We've got a lot of versatile guys who

(20:30):
can play. So a team that certainly has some positive
attitude after snapping that skid yesterday and again now they
have to win by margin on the highway back east,
which is not always the easiest thing. Bryce Young yesterday
finally had well not finally, but there was some regression,
you know, nineteen to twenty eight two nineteen one touchdown,

(20:52):
two picks. He was sacked six times. And again concept
is the same in many ways for Arizona and Caro.
When Carolina can run the football, they can win games.
Yesterday to a Hubbard only ten to thirty two. The
team got out rushed to eleven to sixty and they
committed four turnovers. And when you get out rushed by
that type of margin and you commit four turnovers, it's

(21:13):
not going to happen. Six sacks yesterday the most allowed
by Carolina all season, and you know a couple of
fumbles from our young as well in that ball game.
Dave canal Is afterwards said that yeah, that Bryce Young
will remain carolina starting quarterback next week, saying he didn't
see his young quarterback's confidence waiver quote. He had a
good look in his eyes. I was looking forward to

(21:35):
continue being aggressive and find those opportunities down the field
moving forward. So canal Is giving Bryce Young a vote
of support after yesterday's game. Arizona's defense not always the
easiest to move the football against the Cardinals. Defense has
been something of an overachieving unit this season. Let's check
those linebacker injuries for Arizona moving forward, because that's one

(21:59):
of those deals that will affect their ability to contain
Chuba Hubbard, who is the focal point of Carolina's offense
right now.

Speaker 1 (22:10):
AFC East Battle up next one eleven, one twelve is
we're going down in rotation order. Although I am seeing
this in afternoonkick one bit pm Pacific Teddy New England
and Buffalo Buffalo minus two touchdowns here minus fourteen point
home favorites forty six in the hook being the total
Patriots that.

Speaker 3 (22:28):
Bills, yeah, look aheadline here Bills minus thirteen and a
half total forty five and a half. That's right where
my powering is is thirteen and a half. The market's
opened fourteen on this ballgame, and they've held at fourteen
on this ballgame. Forty six and a half the opening
total on forty actually forty six the opening total. Now
we've seen some over money here up to forty six

(22:49):
and a half. But again we're talking about a half
point move on a total early in the week. It's
not taking a whole lot of money compared to what
it would take to move most NFL lines at a
ladder portions, you know, if the opener so when it
when a line moves, when it total moves forty six
to forty six and a half, yeah, that's a move.
But it's not anything that I'm like, oh my god,
there's a you know, heavy money coming on in this

(23:10):
so that could easily be a one group with a
betting opinion. Four New England. I guess there was some
positive signs yesterday. Drake May only had four completions, you know,
nineteen to twenty three for two hundred and two. Ormondre Stevenson,
Antonio Gibson combined for more than five yards per carry.
Twenty carries for one hundred and two yards, and again
the yards per play basis the six point three New

(23:30):
England six point two Arizona positive for New England. But
again three and eleven total yards. I think nearly half
of them came in the fourth quarter. They were down
by twenty and the fourth they've lost four straight. They
went all for six on third downs. You know, Drake May,
it's a long flight back. You can't do nothing else
except think about the game, watch the game in your iPad,

(23:53):
think about but the week. Talk to a guy, maybe
makes a difference in the game. New England a little
bit frustrated right now. Yesterday's game not a good performance
and certainly going to Buffalo. Yeah, they've been competitive in
division games, but I mean the Patriots from a talent standpoint,
still rank among the weakest teams in the NFL. Josh Allen,

(24:13):
I mean, what a road trip for the Bills offense.
All Right, Buffalo's won eight of their last nine. All Right,
They've beaten the two time defending Super Bowl champs Kansas
City during that span. Yesterday going into Detroit, beating the
Lions straight up, you know, defense till Detroit fifteen carries
for forty eight yards in that ballgame. Sean McDermott, it's

(24:37):
rare air up there with the best teams. That's how
we're gonna have to play every week moving forward. Now, Defensively,
they've given up forty points in each of the last
two weeks. The only other team in history of the
NFL to score forty plus and give up forty plus
in consecutive games. How about the nineteen sixty six New

(24:58):
York Giants. It doesn't happened very often. Like the two
shootouts we've seen Buffalo in for back to back weeks.
That being said, they just became the first team since
twenty and thirteen the twenty thirteen Broncos to score thirty
plus points in eight straight games, most points of the
choice allowed all season. This, my friends, and an offense

(25:19):
that is clicking on all cylinders. Although again after back
to back near perfect games, do we see a third
one forty six and a half. The early money says
expect points.

Speaker 1 (25:34):
Going on way back there the old nineteen sixty six
New York Giantsie. We'll move down the list here and
talk some NFC EA steady Philadelphia and Washington.

Speaker 2 (25:44):
We are seeing the Eagles minus three.

Speaker 1 (25:46):
There is three and a hook out there as the
road favorite forty five and a half being the total
Eagles at Commanders from our nation's capital.

Speaker 3 (25:55):
Look aheadline here Philly minus three and forty seven and
a half. My powering number is three as well. Markets
opened three and a half slash four on Philadelphia a
total of forty six, and we've seen the fours get
taken out, so we've seen a lot of the three
and a halfs get taken out. The money coming for
Washington as we speak, as many threes with juice as

(26:18):
three and a half out there on the Eagles right now.
So certainly the commanders have taken at least a little
bit of early money around this key number from the open,
and we've seen a little bit of under money not
a ton, but a little bit of under money here
as well. Forty six at the open, forty seven and
a half at the look ahead, forty five and a
half this morning. Now, Philly's passing game worked really well yesterday.

(26:44):
All this all the Eagles passing game doesn't work well.
Aj Brown eight for one hundred and ten, DeVonta Smith
eleven for one hundred and nine. They both caught a
touchdown pass. Saquon Barkley was banged up and he was
contained only nineteen to sixty five. The passing game carried
the offense ten to seventeen on third downs, one to
one on fourth downs. All those and this wasn't like
media rumors about Philadelphia's locker room issues. This was the

(27:07):
Eagles players actually giving everyone quotes about what the locker
room was going on, What was going on in the
locker room, and that there were issues disconnect between the
Hurts and his receivers. Certainly was not the case yesterday's
AJ Brown quote. Behind closed doors, we talked about it.
We called each other out. It was very uncomfortable because
we don't want to feel like we're getting attacked. This
was our moment to tell everyone to shut up. Yards

(27:31):
for play Philly only five point two to four point
zero in a game they dominated, but time of possession
forty minutes to twenty minutes. You know, Jalen Hurt's worth
noting he does have a broken finger on his non
throwing hand, but it's not a big factor. Jalen Hurts quote.
Scrutiny is never ending, is nothing new. That's something that
I can find a thrill in. I appreciate being told

(27:51):
I can't and that we can't. I know that I
lead this team. It takes a lot out of it.
It demands a lot out of you. So Philly, you know,
for all the criticisms that they faced yesterday, certainly an
impressive win against the Pittsburgh team doesn't get smacked around
very often. In the Eagles as hot as anyone in
the NFL right now. Whereas Washington, I mean, Jane Daniels

(28:12):
got sacked eight times yesterday. They only had four point
four yards per play, Brian Robinson was shut down on
the ground. Two key injuries offensively the center h Tyler.
This guy's been the league since the years and I
still mess up his name. Bad Daz the center, Uh,
he was sick and rolled out before kickoff, and then
Zach Ertz left with concussion syndromes, and the offense really struggled,

(28:37):
uh for extended stretches. It was you know. Dan quiln
called it a frustrating combination of penalties and missed opportunities.
Quote when you got those, you really put yourself in
a bad spot. We have lost to clean up, but
we've been lots of close games. We've been battle hardened,
and you know, certainly you know, Washington was lucky to
win the game. It was a bad execution on the
two point conversion attempt for New Orleans. But Washington kind

(29:02):
of went into the bye week and kind of came
out a little bit. It wasn't their best effort. Yesterday.
One would anticipate with Philadelphia on the slate and a
game where they were lucky to win a day ago,
that we would see perhaps a better performance from Washington.
That being said, maybe this team was a hot start
first half and not so hot down the stretch. Certainly,

(29:24):
the early money says the markets think Washington likely to
be better this week than they were in that win
over New Orleans.

Speaker 1 (29:34):
Sixteen Up next, guys, it's the New York Football Giants
and the Atlanta Falcons. Early kick here ten am Pacific,
forty two and a hook being the total minus ten.
That is the Atlanta Falcons as the home favorite, one
of only three contests here teddy with a double digit spread.
Also do note the Falcons playing Monday Night Football Giants
at Falcons from the atl.

Speaker 3 (29:56):
Yeah, look aatline here, Atlanta minus nine total forty and
a half. My powering number has Atlanta minus nine going
into Monday Night Football. The markets have opened ten and
forty two and a half for this ballgame, although as
you mentioned, it's likely to be adjusted based on what
Atlanta looks like on Monday Night Football. Let's not forget
the Falcons go into that game oh and four straight

(30:18):
up and against the spread their last four, although they
were all better teams than the Raiders, Minnesota the charge
of the Broncos the first three they had that one
loss by a field goal to New Orleans. As a
well as for the Giants. I mean, what do you
say about the Giants at this stage. Yeah, they had
another plane flying above the stadium that read quote mister

(30:42):
Mara enough, we won't stop until you fire everyone. Firing
everyone doesn't always help. And from a talent standpoint, the
Giants have problems. You know, it doesn't matter if it's
Tommy DeVito or Tim Boyle as the starting quarterback. Both
played yesterday. The Vito finished with five point two yards
for past ten, Boil with five point one. Neither one
is a capable NFL starting quarterback. When it comes to weapons,

(31:04):
I mean, Malik Neighbors their only weapon. He's a rookie,
so this open him in the future. Tyrone Tracy yesterday
and Devin Singletary couldn't run the football eighteen to fifty
six a long of twelve. Again, they gained three point
nine yards per play on offense and they gave up
seven point five on defense. Brian the ball after the game.
I mean, these guys are doing everything they can do.
Ran into a good football team with a lot of

(31:25):
good football players and then played well, and we didn't
play well. Evan Neal quote off the tackle. It doesn't
feel good to lose I just want to get a win.
At this point, all you can do is get back
to the chopping block and work. I don't know if
at Land as a team, I'm ready to lay doubles.
With that being said, the Giants are a team waiting

(31:45):
for the season to be over and their coach to
be fired and their GM to be fired and for
a new rebuild to begin. So you know, I last
week on Better and I talked about that you can
make money with teams with quote unquote nothing to play for.
Giants are not a team I'm gonna try to make
money with down the stretch. I'll leave it at that, all.

Speaker 1 (32:06):
Right, Teddy is we got Tennessee and Indianapolis up next.
It is another early kick here ten am Pacific minus
four in the hook that is the Colts is the
home favorite, forty two in a hook being the.

Speaker 2 (32:17):
Total Titans at Colts next came up.

Speaker 3 (32:21):
Yeah, look headline here Indy minus four and a half,
forty three and a half my powering number Colts minus six.
Markets opened four and a half and forty two and
a half last night, and that's basically what we're seeing today.
There's even a prominent four that has popped up at
a Leading Indicator book this morning. So the market's not
excited about laying a price with Indy right now. What

(32:44):
do you say about Tennessee? I mean, I don't know,
so I don't know if we're gonna see Will Levis again.
You know, Will Levis four turnovers yesterday? Was it six
pick sixes this season? That's the most back quarterback And
you finally got benched yesterday after eight twelve for eighty
nine yards and three picks. Mason Rudolph came in. It
was better twenty one to twenty six, two o nine

(33:05):
two touchdowns. Both teams finished with five point eight yards
per play yesterday, and Tennessee had six turnovers since he
had four. Tennessee had twelve penalties one hundred and ten yards.
You know, coach Callan after the game, if you can't
stop month third down, he turned them all over six times,
it's going to be tough to win. It's been an
absolute disaster of a season for Tennessee, and h at
the markets are giving them a little bit of respect

(33:26):
here in this game against Indy. I mean, the offense
at five turnovers in Denver, Anthony Richardson had another rough game,
no touchdowns, just four point five yards per passing temp
he got Zack twice. I talked earlier about that Jonathan
Taylor fumble at the one insline, and again that would
have they would have been up twenty to seven in
the third quarter if Taylor goes one more inch before

(33:47):
dropping the ball. After that fumble, Denver outscort on twenty
four to nothing, which is we're not responding well to adversity.
Zach Taylor quote, that can't happen the veteran You know, no,
You're never can consciously to Warre you're dropping the ball,
Otherwise you wouldn't do it, you know, Denver Jonathan Jonathan Cooper,

(34:08):
I should say the pass rusher quote. If he would
have scored that touchdown, it would have been even more
of a dogfight to get back, would have a tougher fight.
I just hope it never happens to us. Head coach
Shane Stikeen quote that was a game changer. Yeah, absolutely,
Obviously it hurt us, but he's one of our leaders.
Sometimes that happens in football. He's our guy, and that's
what you say to him. Now, they got the Titans,
Giants and Jags in their last three games, but they're

(34:32):
two games behind the Chargers for the number sen seventh
playoff spot. They need LA to lose and keep losing,
and of course now they lose the head to head
tiebreaker with the Broncos as well. So Yesterday's lost very,
very costly for the Colts. I think that's why this
number is shorter than my power rating would indicate in
the pretty devastating defeat and yesterday's game and not pretty

(34:55):
how it happened.

Speaker 2 (34:57):
Yeah, I'm picking up what you're laying down there with
the Colts.

Speaker 1 (35:00):
Move down the list here, guys one nineteen one twenty
the final early kick on Sunday, it is the Rams
and the Jets TC, and we are seeing the Rams
minus three. There is three in a hook out there
as the road favorite, mostly minus three with Jews forty
seven being the total cross country near Rams at Jets.

Speaker 3 (35:19):
Yeah, look aheadline Rams minus three even money total of
forty six. My power rating Rams minus three. The betting
markets opened Rams minus three and forty seven. And what
are we seeing today? Threes? As you mentioned, there are
some three and a half's popping. There are also some
three with juice, but it's mostly still three right now.
So look ahead my power rating opener and current number

(35:41):
all three essentially a total forty seven at the opener
of four of this one, and we're seeing forty six
and a half's popping up and even a forty six
out there as well. So a little bit of all
under money. LA did some things really well against San Francisco.
You know, was committed to the run. Hian Williams another

(36:02):
one hundred yard games at one hundred and forty two yards
in the ground, Cooper Cup zero catches, zero yard offense
worked enough, Pukah seven for ninety seven in the ball game.
Sean McVay, what's really cool is this team is found
a bunch of different ways to be able to win
football games. You come off a forty four to forty
two game the other day and then you win twelve
to six. Our group did just what they needed to

(36:23):
do to be able to get it done. So the
Ram's feeling pretty good about themselves. The Jets feeling pretty
good about themselves. They gotta win yesterday the top thirty
points for the first time all season. They had their
first opening drive touchdown of the season. The offense found
a rhythm, you know, DeVante Adams, Oh yeah, today was

(36:44):
one of those days. In the second half definitely felt very,
very similar the way we used to get it rolling
talk about him and Aaron Rodgers back in the day.
You know, the offense seven point four yards for play,
defense ave not only five point five. That being said,
Aaron Rodgers were the Jets leading rusher yesterday, which is
not what you want from your forty one year old quarterback.

(37:06):
You know, they were life and death in a game
where they had no Jets turnovers at all, and then
Rogers faced no pass rushing, only sacked once, and DeVante
Adams is the best game of the last two years
with one hundred and ninety eight touch receiving yards and
two touchdowns. The Jets defense still allows twenty seven first
downs and four hundred and twenty one total yards to
Mac Jones and the Jaguars, you know, essentially torch for

(37:26):
the second straight game. They couldn't hold the lead in
that contest, and head coach Jeff Albricks showed us very
clearly he didn't understand the NFL and understand plock management
by putting his defense back out on the field after
punching in the late touchdown instead of running the clock
down before doing that. So though none of those are
positive science necessarily for the Jets, see if they exhale

(37:47):
after finally winning a ballgame. Certainly the Rams clicking a
little bit right now, but it is the West Coast
team traveling east for that dreaded early start game.

Speaker 1 (37:59):
After noon came up next, guys one two one one
two two Minnesota Vikings Seattle Seahawks.

Speaker 2 (38:04):
As we are seeing the Vikings here.

Speaker 1 (38:05):
Teddy minus four minus four and a half is out there,
forty two and a half being the total we've seen
some under money as the Vikings going on the road
to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Seahawks.

Speaker 3 (38:18):
Yeah, look at headline here, Minnesota minus one and a
half total forty five and a half. I've got a
Geno plays power rating which is Minnesota minus two. Sam Howl,
the backup former commanders a head coach. He was not
good in relief of Gino yesterday. So two if Gino plays,
six and a half if he doesn't, we haven't. I

(38:39):
haven't seen Geno officially ruled out yet. The markets are
kind of in the middle right now. Four four and
a half for this ballgame. But like I said, my
powering number two with Gino six and a half, with
Howell markets four and a half and forty one, and
yeah we see you know, the forty ones, forty one
and a half. Now we're seeing forty two, forty two

(38:59):
and a half, even a prominent forty three out there.
So La Marcus have played this one over a little bit.
Despite the fact that Minnesota plays tonight against Monday Night
Football and the Seattle we have QB question marks, but
you know the Vikings six game winning streak only three
two one ats during that span. If they look good
on national TV tonight, they're likely to attract more betting

(39:21):
attention here, especially if teners in play, and I mean
Seattle was non competitive against Green Bay yesterday. Gino got
knocked out of the game. Same Hollow came in in
fourteen pass tens for twenty four yards. But the offsitive
line struggled as Bayley as they struggled all year. They
allowed seven sacks, they allowed twelve quarterback hits. The running game,
which dominated against Arizona last week, well this week, you

(39:43):
know Zach Charvionee just eight fifty four yards on the ground.
They only fourteen first downs, two and eight total yards
three point seven yards per play. You know, linebacker Ernest
Jones quote, we know what type of team we are.
We know what the goal is, what we're trying to accomplish.
Playoff bollogiers, putting the emphasis on what we said earlier
the year that we all wanted to get done. Let's

(40:03):
win the division, going to the playoffs, get a home
playoff game, whatever the case may be. So even though
Seattle looked bad last night, they certainly aren't. You know,
they're not a team tossing the Talibanny stretch of the imagination. Hey,
coach McDonald quote, I'll tell you this, Gino is probably
the toughest player I've ever been around. Severe enough for

(40:25):
him not to back, not to come back in the game.
We'll do all the tests tomorrow. I kind of figured
out as we go. But right now, structurally it looks okay.
We've got to get an image and all of vast stuff.
So Seattle still in first place in the NFC West.
Gino may be able to play this week. His status
likely to affect this point spread fairly significantly. Gino plays

(40:45):
is going to come down. Gino sits it's going to
go up interesting handicap.

Speaker 1 (40:51):
Up next is the San Francisco forty nine ers on
the road against the Miami Dolphins one two five one
two six four twenty five eastern kick here, it's forty
six being the total, Dolphins minus one and a half.

Speaker 2 (41:04):
There is minus two.

Speaker 1 (41:05):
Out there as the home favorite, so it's forty nine
ers going cross country here for the afternoon kick in
Miami Gardens. Forty nine ers at Dolphins here at TC.

Speaker 3 (41:16):
Yeah, it's not an early kick for San Frani, so
a late kick which is a factor. Look head line here,
Miami minus two my powering number in Miami minus two
and a half. The market's open two and a half,
forty six and a half, and we've seen pretty steady
San Francisco money as you mentioned, down to one and
a half slash two and mostly forty six is out there,
so a little bit of under money as well. And

(41:37):
both of these teams are coming off, you know, losses
at end of their season. Essentially, San fran was supposed
to fight the good fight against the Rams. Instead they
managed two field goals three point three yards per play.
The offense did work, I mean brock perty at one
hundred and forty two yards on thirty one dropbacks, one
hundred and ninety one total yards For the games they
got out game by more than one hundred. They didn't
even get to the red zone against the They're one

(42:01):
in four straight up their last five games. The only
win came against the Bears. They scored seventeen or less
than all four losses. There's four times already this season
that the Niners have lost to a division opponent after
leading by at least a field goal in the fourth quarter.
You know, Fred Warner, listen to this quote. It was
the story of the year, just not doing enough to

(42:22):
win games, not playing complimentary, just coming out a little
too short. I always look for the past tense. When
teams start using the past tense, that's a bet against.
And when Fred Warner it was the story of the year,
that's just one of those that stuck out to me,
like yeah, yeah, san France, and again the wholes of
Andre Campbell situation where he wouldn't go into the game

(42:44):
suspended and cut and ripped by all his teammates. That's
not positive team chemistry. San fran is a difficult ten. Again,
this is a team that came into the season with
Super Bowl aspirations. They've been to the NFC Championship Game
four times in the previous five years. Another a sub
five hundred team in last place. These are not teams
I asked to win games for me on the road,
and Late Tea didn't play. That. Being said, I mean,

(43:08):
Miami did a lot of things right yesterday, and they
did some off you know, they had four turnovers, and
they had two picks in the red zone, one at
the goal line. The third came on the final drive
or the next one came on the final when the
stinglely ripped the ball out of Tyreek's hands, and then
the a lot of fake punt that led to a touchdown.

(43:29):
Their starting tackles were hurt in the game. Jalen Waddle
got hurt in the game. And this was you know,
my clients and I had a five percent big ticket
on Miami yesterday and the thought process for me was
this team's gonna fight and if they fall behind, they
will respond to adversity. And they did. They fought tooth
and nail. They just made a bunch of mistakes. Houston

(43:50):
didn't play well. Those two teams played ten times Miami's
gonna win more than half, but they made too many
mistakes yesterday after the game to a plain and simple
my fault, Yeah, it was to I gotta protect the ball.
I gotta play better for our guys, especially in the
situation where the team is counting on me to drive
our offense to potentially tie the game up. That's not

(44:11):
what I did. So both of these teams coming off
pretty devastating losses that probably ended their seasons. We'll see
which team is capable of bouncing back. Here. I can
only take Miami, I'll tell you that right out. I
want no part of San Francisco on this spot at
the stage of the campaign.

Speaker 1 (44:31):
Kick Off the New Year with an Edge. That is
the name of the special pitch. It's a thirty day
all access pass for January and won include the rest
of December completely free. That does expire what this week, guys,
So check out Teddy Covers Drew Martin Great selections there
for kick Off the New Year with an Edge. You'll
get the rest of December for free, all picks in

(44:52):
all sports handicapper of your choice. Teddycovers Drew Martin, NFL
Opening Line Report, Final Afternoon Kick up next here, Teddy,
it is Jacksonville and Las Vegas. We are seeing the
Raiders minus one point home favorites forty being the total man.
This is a tough handicap. Jaguars at Raiders from Las Vegas.

Speaker 3 (45:14):
Yeah, yeah, just one more. You talked about one of
the great parts. I want to talk about one more.
It's bowl season right now. I love bollseason. We had
seventy percent college football last December, and you can get
my entire bowl season, county every play, every day. We
do have a five percent big ticket available right now
for Texas Clemson. There's a game that absolutely stands out

(45:36):
to me. I expect the cash. I expect the cash
by margin. Get everything again one forty nine right now
on my page, wt Dot buzz backslash TC And of
course I know I had a crappy weekend. Every weekend
is not going to be crappy that I will promise you.
You can get twelve months all access just ninety nine

(45:57):
bucks a month from your guy. Great opportunity to take
advantage of that offer. So the Balls package, the twelve
month all access, and of course by January, get the
rest of December absolutely free. Three great offers right now
on my page wt Dot buzz backslash TC Jaggs and
the Raiders. This is a pick your poison game. Look

(46:18):
at line Raiders minus one, thirty nine and a half,
my powering numbers, Raiders minus two, the markets open one
and thirty nine and a half. We're seeing mostly more
forties than thirty nine and a halfs this morning. Of course,
the Raiders play on Monday Night Football tonight. They're oh
and nine straight up their last nine three and six
against the spread. In those nine consecutive defeats. Let's give

(46:43):
the Jackson credit. Mac Jones was a little bit better yesterday.
Thirty one to forty six, two ninety four to two touchdowns,
need to throw two picks, and the jag scored twenty
five points, which is more than they put up in
mac Jones's first three starts combined, when they scored twenty three.
Jaggs got four hilly yards of offense yesterday, only second
time all season they've got that. Being said, the defense
allowed seven point yards for our yards per pass, made

(47:04):
Aaron Rodgers look like he was twenty three years old,
didn't force a turnover. You know, they scored a touchdown
on their opening drive for the first time in nineteen games.
You know, Doug Peterson hanging on to his job for now. Quote,
Aaron's a great quarterback. He's a Hall of Fame quarterback.
They made plays that we didn't make. That part's unfortunate.
Come down, just a couple of plays in your season

(47:25):
or your game or whatever could be a little bit different.
I mean, I'll give a jack's credit for the show
and fight. How much fighting going to show on a
trip to Vegas? Yeah? Yeah, join La with the Raiders.
Yeah yeah, this is not a game that I expect
to be involved with her, not from a side gamepoint.

Speaker 1 (47:47):
We got Sunday Night Football up next, because then the
Monday Night or fire away any questions in the live
chat also in the comments below when them on next
week's show, we get Tampa, Bay and Dallas up next. Here, Teddy,
it is the Buccaneers minus four point road favorites forty nine,
forty eight and a hook forty nine and a half
all out there as the total as it's Buccaneers at

(48:07):
Cowboys from AT and T Stadium, Arlington, Texas.

Speaker 3 (48:12):
Look aheadline Tampa minus three and a half total forty
seven and a half. My powering number Tampa minus four
and a half. The market's open four slash four and
a half. Last night, the markets have taken out all
the four most of the four and a half. I
think MGM still has one now. I don't know that
will four long. So we're seeing mostly four forty eight

(48:32):
and a half at the opener. We've seen oh forty
nine forty nine and a half popping up right now.
Tampa's dangerous. Tampa is real. I'm mad at myself for
not making money with Tampa, really, am Baker? Yesterday twenty
two to twenty seven, two hun eighty eight yards, four touchdowns,
ten point seven yards per past half. That's not some

(48:54):
crappy defense he was going up against. That's the Chargers
defense a lot only five point nine yards per passing
over six third down conversions, and the key has been
the running game. Bucky Irving Rashad White combined thirty four
one hundred and eighty one. That equals nine to fifteen
on third downs. Third and short versus third and long
makes all the difference. They out rushed LA two twenty

(49:15):
three to thirty two. Yesterday they trailed seventeen to thirteen
and a half time, had a twenty seven ton and
second half runout six straight scoring drives, five in the
second half, and they did that despite playing without their
top three safeties. You know, Antoine Winfield hurt, Jordan White
had hurt, Mike Edwards hurt. Mayfield quote. We came into
halftime and said, if the opfensiti't hurt, ourselves will be

(49:36):
all right. The defense came out and stopped them. The
offensive line took over. Was a complimentary football game. Four
hundred yards of total offense and one hundred and fifty
rushing yards in four straight games for Tampa. You know,
they didn't punt in ten possessions against the Chargers defense
that had been giving up lowest in the NFL, less
than sixteen points a game. They won the yardage battle

(49:59):
by three one hundred yards in that contest. Todd Bowles,
that's huge. It's December football. You know, we're trying to
stop the run. We're trying to run the football. Today.
We did a good job. Tampa is showing bad on
signs and showing signs that they could be a contender
into January, not just in December. As for Dallas, well,

(50:20):
things went right for them, yesterday. Cooper rush eighteen to
twenty nine two hundred and fourteen yards, three touchdowns, no picks,
only sacked once. They ran the football Recordoudal twenty five
for one hundred and forty nine ceed Lamb in nine
catches for one hundred and sixteen yards. The defense forced
four turnovers or twoud and eleven to sixty yard rushing heads.
They looked like a real football team. You know. They

(50:40):
punted their first two possessions and then scored six of
their next eight possessions and the only exceptions they had
a turnover deep in Carolina territory. And then they tried
a seventy yard field goal at Tampa before the end
of the half that Brandon Aubrey missed. So you want
to talk about the impact that Las Vegas has in
the NFL, Ceede Lamb talking about the odds makers listening

(51:01):
Carolina as a favorite for the first time in nearly
two years. Quote it was brought up, Lamb said, with
a wide smile. You're not oblivious to what's being said
about your team. Shout out to whoever thought the Panthers
were gonna win, but they got this one raw. Micah
Parsons after the game quote. It says, We're not about
to give up as long as I'm part of this unit.

(51:22):
We believe in each other. We're fighting for each other.
At this point. The record is a record. There's a
special feeling where you can fight for each other. So
positive chemistry in Dallas for the first time and quite sometime.

Speaker 1 (51:35):
Like it, Teddy as we'll flip the script here Monday,
December twenty third, the Eve of Christmas.

Speaker 2 (51:40):
Eve fun party night.

Speaker 1 (51:42):
Usually, we'll see if the Packers fans are partying in
Lambeau here, Teddy is it's Green Bay hosting New Orleans.
That is, the Packers minus thirteen in a hook here
home favorites almost two touchdowns Teddy forty two forty two
and a half being the total Saints at Packers to
end week sixteen opening line report.

Speaker 3 (52:01):
We'll see if the Packers fans are partying on two
days before Christmas. You know they're going to be party
in two days before Christmas at Lambeau. It'll be cold
and it is not Saints weather. One would anticipate. I
haven't seen a forecast. I wouldly we still talking about
something that's a week away, but one would anticipate the
late December. Football at night in Green Bay is not
New Orleans weather. And so here's the situation. Okay, look,

(52:23):
headline thirteen and a half forty two and a half.
My powering number is only twelve, and I'm not all
that high. New Orleans market's open thirteen and forty two
and we're seeing thirteen and a half forty two and
a half in this Bagain. Now, remember my powering numbers
are only team A versus Team B home field advantage,
so it's never a scenario where I'm in my powering

(52:46):
numbers is going to affect the situation. But obviously in
this situation, New Orleans at night in the cold, it's
merits a some concern, merits at least a point. So
I'm not shocked that my powering number is short for
this ballgame. The betting markets know that the colt is

(53:07):
worth something, and my power number doesn't reflect that. That
being said, Saints, I mean's positive signs yesterday eight sacks
on Jayden Daniels. They allowed only four point four yards
per play. Spencer Rattler came in for Jake Hayner and
rallied the team multiple scores and you know he let
all four of their scoring drives, and then obviously they

(53:28):
went for two at the end of the game. And
it wasn't a particularly well executed playof I think it
was a great play call for Darren Rizzy company. But
they certainly battled, and the defense played well and the
offense moved the football. You know, Rizzy talking about the
two point conversion fail quote, just a mixture of emotions
because we walk off the field with the loss. But

(53:50):
I don't know now if I've ever been more proud
of the team. You know, he said, I didn't regret
whatsoever going for two at the end. I don't think
the players regret it. They were all in favor of it.
I just thought it was the right thing. That being said,
they're zer and four without Derek Carr, and I need
one more loss for New England, for New Orleans. I
say to cast my five percent big ticket on the

(54:10):
Saints under their season win total. So one loss in
the last three games, we'll get there. We got there
with the got there with the over on Arizona yesterday.
We're already there with Dallas under. We've lost the Bills
and we've lost the Broncos. So hopefully no drama at all.
We're gonna go three and two with the season wins.
We take a five percent win with the Saints, will

(54:31):
take a four percent win with Arizona. But I do
need one more Saints loss. I'm counting on it Monday night.
I don't want to straight up win here. I'll tell
you that the Packers, you know, really impressive yesterday in Seattle.
They allowed only fourteenth the first down twitter and eight
total yards. There are only two losses in the last
ten games have come to the Lions. They haven't cleansed

(54:52):
the playoff spot yet. Jordan love quote, I like where
we're at. We just got to keep figuring out ways
to get better, keep pushing each other, and find ways
to get these wins to end the season off. But
I like where we're at. Certainly Monday night at Lambeau
not necessarily gonna be easy, especially if Josh Jacobs is
running football the way he did yesterday. Jacob's absolutely bullied.
See I'll let the line of scrimmage, and that could

(55:14):
be a problem against Saints team that's at times this
year has been pushed around on the ground, although that
certainly wasn't the case in yesterday's game.

Speaker 1 (55:23):
Great stuff, Teddy, we got time just for a couple
of questions here, guys, no bye week, so a lot
of information given out. Shout out to James Mitchell asking
any chance you have Kyler Murray splits for grass versus turf.
Feels like every time he steps out, stop outside, he stinks.
I'll tell you this, Teddy, off the top of my head,
I think this is one of the more underrated angles

(55:44):
and sports betting, the turf and the grass outside and inside.
I know it's factored in, like you were just talking
about with the Saints. Sometimes I don't think it's factored
in enough, though, Teddy, any thoughts on that angle?

Speaker 3 (55:56):
So certainly something my quick Google search we'll be able
to track get down onto it. I don't have it.
I don't have it in front of me. I apologize,
I don't apologize. I'm not I'm not gonna have those
stats in front of me for this show. Uh necessarily
that being sad, I say, it's just when you're talking
about factors that are gonna really affect uh a football team,

(56:20):
I'm not with you. Due that surface is a huge deal,
especially because there's all the different all the different types
of grass, field. I'm not saying I'm not with you
at all. I'm saying, from my handicapping perspective, I haven't
put a lot of time into it, a lot of
thought into it. Again, we can handicap minutia all day.
I try to focus on the bigger picture things and

(56:40):
if the if the turf is a factor, and maybe
it is, then I'm then I'm clearly missing it.

Speaker 2 (56:48):
Okay, Teddy. In yards per play, I think you brought
it up twice in the show.

Speaker 1 (56:52):
This is one thing that I have a question for you,
and you kind of hinted towards this. You know, you know,
we'll read newsletters out there, guys, and some of them
will just go over yards per play, yards per play,
this team, that team, and this team has the better one.
But you also brought up the fact that some of
that is like garbage time, and obviously that factors into
yards per play. I think that stat is getting overrated

(57:14):
in the betting market, and any thoughts there.

Speaker 3 (57:17):
I agree one hundred percent. That being said, when you're
talking about how good teams are, we're talking about stats
that wise guys use. Your most basic stat is t
yards per play and yards per play differential, and that
has been a stat that every wise guy that I
know that bets the NFL has used since I've been
in Vegas, and it continues to be the stat they use.
So when you find misleading numbers, you could take advantage

(57:39):
because you know the wise guy support is going to
be there. That's why you know when you look at
a situation like who is the yesterday that I gained
him six point three to six point two? Was that
the Giants or New England? I think it was New
England against Arizona and all their yards were garbage time yards,
So you could take advantage of that as a better
that one of the little edges that can help you.

(58:02):
You know, Hey, this dance a little misleading, that stants
a little misleading. This team is a little bit better
than we think they are. This team is a little
bit worse than we think they are. That's why you
make money in this league.

Speaker 1 (58:12):
Absolutely, Okay, last one here, Star Child asking would this
line change on the Raiders depending on the night game tonight,
and of course they're minus one against the Jaguarars next week?
Would this be a hostting the Falcons where you'd want
to make two bets Raiders or look to fade them.

Speaker 2 (58:29):
Teddy, Yeah, if.

Speaker 3 (58:31):
The Raiders win this game, if you like the Raiders tonight,
if the Raider, you know, then I would anticipate the
points right being higher than one. I don't know that
it's the same way the you know, if the Raiders
look awful. I still don't know the Jags are going
to be a team that's gonna the market. They're gonna
be like, oh yeah, let's bet on Jacksonville. But I

(58:52):
will say this, if you do like the Raiders, it
does make some sense take them tonight and then take
them minus one. I feel like one of the money
that's only for a straight up win. You know. I
if Atlanta beats in by a field goal, and I
don't think that's going to have the betting markets real
excited about the Raiders enough to push this line up.
So my mind, Raiders money line correlates with Raiders minus

(59:14):
one for next week.

Speaker 1 (59:17):
All right, Teddy, and guys, remember the most exciting bowl
season ever? Teddy, Teddy read it out, Get every bowl
game released, thirty seven days of college football action. Huge
discount there, and that is available this week. We also
got to kick off the new year with an edge
purchase a thirty day all access pass for January, you
get the rest of December free, Teddy become both available there.

(59:38):
We're going each and every Monday morning NFL Opening Line Report, Teddy.

Speaker 3 (59:42):
I'll throw it over to you.

Speaker 2 (59:43):
Anything else you want to throw out there before we
shut this down.

Speaker 3 (59:46):
Yeah, So, I want to talk about coming off a
shitty weekend. You know, I had an awful weekend. I
burn myself, I burned my clients. I want you know,
nobody's happy today and the week before Christmas. You hate that.
That being said, look, bad weekends can it will happen.
That's why we practice bank roll management, and that's why
I come on here every Monday, win or lose and
talk about what we're looking forward to the coming week.

(01:00:07):
You have to be able to put the bad weekends,
get them in the rearview mirror pretty quick,

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NFL Opening Line Report | 2024 NFL Week 16 Odds, Picks and Predictions | December 16, 2024

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}NFL Opening Line Report | 2024 NFL Week 16 Odds, Picks and Predictions | December 16, 2024