February 3, 2025 • 45 mins
Opening lines for the Super Bowl in the NFL Playoffs are up! How have opening spreads and totals been moving since they've been released and where can we take advantage? Join Drew and Teddy for the Opening Line Report as we dive into Super Bowl odds, picks and predictions before action starts this Sunday!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We are breaking down the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles
spread total but mainly props. On this show, I am
Drew Martin, joined as always by Teddy Covers. Teddy, Happy
Monday morning to you, buddy. Super Bowl week is upon us.
Welcome into the show.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
It sure is upon us. You ready, I'm ready. I'm
telling you. The energy in Vegas is awesome. And the
two weeks, you know, leading up to Super Bowl, you
go out about in town and just there's buzz. The
sports books are busy, everyone's excited, there's money flowing in,
and of course the lines are moving. So I love
this time of year in Vegas and this is kind
of the calm before the storm. The majority, the vast
(00:38):
majority of big game action comes into the seventy two
hours before kickoff Friday Saturday Sunday morning. So what we've
seen now, we've seen what the wise guys like. So
we could talk about it on today's show. As you mentioned,
mostly props, you know, but let's start with side and
total because I think what I said last.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
Week has held up. But nothing's happening, and that's the truth, Teddy.
I was actually gonna give you props. I mean We've
talked about this before in big time games and coming
up to like Week one of the NFL, there's movement
when it first comes out, and then there's a little
bit of a dead period and there isn't much movement
unless there's some kind of key injury or something, which
(01:19):
to my knowledge, there is not here.
Speaker 4 (01:21):
With the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
So it's kind of of the norm to have this
little dead period and then, like you're talking about seventy
two hours before, there's gonna be some big movement here, possibly.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
Not on the side in total. Okay, it's going nowhere,
all right. I mean, we talked about it last week
at the Open. I'm like, I don't see this side
moving a whole lot. I don't see this total moving
a whole lot. And that's been the case. I've heard
reports and rumors from some of my sharp friends in town.
They think Philly money is going to show before kickoff.
(01:54):
That being said, I'm seeing some of the consensus numbers
showing that Casey's you know, well two thirds plus of
the public money coming in on Kansas City. I don't
know that we're gonna see this wise guy move towards
Philly happen in the real way again hasn't happened yet.
Looking at the wager Talk free live on screen, there's
(02:16):
no indicators. There's no leading indicator books that are saying
Philly's about to take money.
Speaker 5 (02:21):
I'm not this expected.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
Wise guy support for Philadelphia that hasn't really come through yet.
Maybe it'll come and maybe it'll be enough to move
the line, but I'm not seeing signs of it. And again,
I would expect Kansas City to go off in this
same range that we're seeing them now minus one, minus
one and a half money line total sitting in the
(02:45):
forty nine range. I don't think that's doing anything. Money
line still in the minus one twenty to minus one
thirty range for the Chiefs, depending on where you shot round.
I don't see that moving a whole lot between now
and kickoff. But like I said, some of my sharp
so my sharp friends, are fairly confident that money will
(03:06):
show for Philadelphia before kickoff. Whether it's enough money on
a game of this magnitude to move the number, we'll
have to see. But there is some sharp support for Philadelphia.
Then again, there was sharp support for Casey right at
the open, So I'm not anticipating anything not side not total,
and again the public's gonna come in with some over money.
(03:28):
The wise guys are gonna take everything about forty nine
and bet the under. So this line's not moving a
whole lot. I don't see a whole lot of movement
between now. You know, we're talking about the seventy two hours.
Even though seventy two hours, I'm not expecting this line
to move in any significant way. Meeting Philadelphia becomes a favorite,
Meeting Kents City gets to three.
Speaker 5 (03:45):
Neither one of those things is gonna happen.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Sure, Teddy and we are seeing minus one and a
half forty nine to be the consensus number right now. However,
there is minus one out there select shops. If you
go to the Wager talk live on screen, there's also
forty eight and a half juice to the over out there. So,
like Teddy's saying, there, there isn't a whole lot of
movement to this point. We're likely not to get any
(04:08):
both sides and totals is what it sounds like.
Speaker 5 (04:10):
TC.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Before we get into the props that you want to
throw out anything else with side and total.
Speaker 5 (04:17):
I mean, we could beat the dead horse to death
if you want.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
We're gonna about I mean total, Wise, we will see
a dichotomy between the books that cater to public betters
and the books are cater to wise guys. The public
betters are going to bet the over in this game.
The wise guys have already made a case for the under.
So that is legit sharp Square divide pros under Joe's
(04:42):
over sidewise two way action you know. So uh, and
that's I don't anticipate any type of the Sharp Book's
going to be at this and the Square Books is
going to be at this for for the side, but
for the total there could well be you know, forty
eight and a half for the Sharp books, forty nine
and a half at the Square books. And that forty
(05:03):
nine off obviously a key number, which is why we
genuinely and repeatedly encourage you have more accounts. Not about
putting everything I want account. It's about having every legal
account available to use. You can get those free half
points as opposed to buying them just by shopping around.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Sure, and a good resource is using the way to
talk live on screen as well. Guys check them out
and get the best number. So Teddy talking about some
props here, of course, It is a fun thing to bet,
like we talked about last week. Though, don't kind of
pepper the board too.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
Much, guys. That's one bit of advice I would give TC.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
So I have done Super Bowls in my past where
I've just had too many prop bets and it's like
not enjoyable to watch because you don't really know what
the roof for. That's one bit of advice I would
have if you're just kind of getting into this. But Teddy,
I'll throw it over to you, man, what's kind of
on your mind betting some of these props?
Speaker 5 (05:55):
So I want to refer first to what you were
talking about right there.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
All right, this is Chris for sports betters. All right,
the Super Bowl is our national betting holiday, and everyone
wants to bet.
Speaker 5 (06:06):
I do you do? Drew does?
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Everybody does? Okay, it's okay. Keep your unit sizes small
and you can pepper the board with the action. If
you used to bet in the hundred bucks, maybe you
bet twenty bucks on these props and you can pepper
the board or at twenty bucks here, twenty bucks, there
no big deal. You used to bet in a dime,
maybe you know you bet one hundred or two hundred
(06:28):
on your props and keep your unit sizes small. It
takes a lot of the stress out of the equation
and puts a lot more of the fun into the equation.
Not that these aren't positive expectation wagers, all right. There
are certainly post vectation wagers, and some many, many of
the sharp betters they know, will load up on Super
Bowl Sunday. They'll have their entire bankroll in play in
one way or another. Now, some of that is certainly,
(06:51):
you know, looking for middles, you know where they're betting
under a high number and then over a lower number,
and you know it's not all truly at risk. But
lots of shark guys put they see significant portion of
their bankroll in play this week as a casual better.
We don't want to do that, all right, You don't
want to do that. So it's okay to pepper the
(07:11):
board to make a good handful of wagers. I've got
a nine play proper port up the wagertalk dot com.
I'm gonna talk about a couple of them here in
a minute. But my unit sizes are small, you know,
I usually bet three, four or five units for an
NFL game, and my prop bets are quarter of a unit,
half a unit for.
Speaker 5 (07:28):
What it's worth, you know, so significantly smaller.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
And that's the way to have fun on You're both Sunday,
you know, keep your bet small, keep your prop bets small.
You can make a bunch of them, but don't go
nuts on this stuff. And of course, you know, I'm
sitting here with the this the super book sheet. It's
fifty pages and it's just, you know, it's insaneive going
through it is like I'm reading a book. And then
(07:52):
as you go through it you want to have a
handicap of the game. In the back of your mind.
You're coming up with a whole bunch of stuff. Hey,
let's go, you know, circle, let's come back to this circle. Come,
let's back to this. Look at the hard numbers. I
found nine that I like, never a good handful that
I probably could have bet too.
Speaker 5 (08:07):
They didn't put on their reports. I didn't want too much.
Let's tell this to them. Now here's one that I bet.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
All right, this is one other factor here, Drew, before
we start getting into some of this stuff. This is
classic sharp square divide stuff, and it's important to talk
about the pros are very willing to lay juice betting
a lot to win a little when they have the
odds in their favor On Super Bowl Sunday, so many
(08:34):
of the props you're gonna hear me today, you talk
about today, they're not plus price pops. They're minus place
prop minus price props, but they're favorites for a reason.
The casual betters looking to bet a little to win
a lot. The professional better, the wise guy is much
more comfortable betting a lot to win a little than
(08:56):
the casual betters. And that's the way you kind of
chip away. At least I do a lot on Super
Bowl Sunday. I'm not betting the Yes safety or the
Yes overtime or the Yes missed extra point, even though
we could have a missed extra point here.
Speaker 5 (09:08):
You know, the big.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
Plus price props are not gonna call them sucker bets,
but there's certainly public bets. You know, we've seen overtimes,
we've seen safeties. It happens, But the math is it
right to back those relatively long shot propositions.
Speaker 5 (09:28):
They're square bets. I don't make them.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
I'm very comfortable laying prices as opposed to taking prices
and the props I want to talk about right here.
I don't think there's any of them that are plus
price that I was looking for one. I'm like, there's
gotta be one good one plus price here, and I didn't.
I don't have one for you on my list of
stuff I wanted to talk about.
Speaker 5 (09:48):
So let's talk about some props, Drew if you like.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
Yeah, absolutely TC And it sounds like you went over
some game props. You know, most of these sports books,
it's like game props, and then it's another tab for
player props.
Speaker 4 (10:01):
And sometimes I noticed player props.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
Yes, they'll get up to like minus one forty, minus
one fifty, but a lot of times you can tell
they're trying to keep it around that minus one ten Teddy.
Speaker 4 (10:10):
So in that standpoint, I don't know that there would be.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
Like as big of a sharp square like lay a
lot to win a little, whereas these games like go
to overtime, you know, things of that nature that that
gets a little a little tricky in terms of just
the you know, the price point on some of those.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
Sure, and and so they're showing a player Pp'm gonna
talk about right of the ball. Let's talk about Patrick
Mahomes because this is when I was at the Westgate
Super Bowl for the prop party on Thursday night, when
all the numbers come up, and I'll give the Westgate credit,
you know, I really will. The marketplace has changed dramatically.
When they used to have the prop party on Thursday night,
they were basically posting into a virgin market, you know,
(10:52):
virgin numbers, and there was a first action out there.
Now in the modern world, you know, FANDUL, DraftKings, MG,
they all had props out already, so they were putting
their numbers up into a mature marketplace. And yet they
didn't change their strategy at all. It was like, we're
gonna post our numbers and if we're gonna get arbitrage,
we'll get arbitrage.
Speaker 5 (11:13):
So be it.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
We think our numbers are right, which is something I
respect as opposed to all right, now, we're gonna put
up market numbers on this stuff, and a lot of
the first bets, you know, they were estimating fifty to
sixty percent of the first bets coming in are all
arbitrage on Thursday night. That being said, certainly one thing
they got hit with they were betting the court both
quarterbacks rushing yards over Yard's over attempts over Patrick Mahomes
(11:36):
got hit pretty significantly. They moved the yard. You know,
usually they're gonna move the juice. They actually moved the
yards up on Mahomes. You know, they set themselves up
for a middle. But Mahomes rushing yards now with thirty
and a half from the open twenty eight and a
half at the West Gate, and that's one that got
immediate wise guy action right off the gig, right from
(11:56):
the get go. Mahomes over rushing yards, Mahomes over we
rushing attempts and Hurts too, took action. Both qbs expected
to run the football. And that's some of the first
bets that we saw, some of the bigger bets that
we saw on the Thursday night at the West Gate.
Speaker 5 (12:14):
And it's always fun down there, dude, that says a
wise guy party. Due.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
I see a bunch of guys that haven't seen in
a while. You know a lot of times you' seen
at the beginning of football season. I see him all
summer in August and we can run around gett numbers,
and you don't see him again until Super Bowl rolls around.
So it's always fun. It's always a scene in there,
and it's something one of those you know, if you're
gonna come to Vegas for an event, you're not coming
in for the Westgate properlease on Thursday night. You know
you're coming in for the super Bowl itself or for
(12:39):
March Madness or something like that. But it is one
of those deals. If you happen to be in town,
it's really worth going down and checking out our friends
at the west Gate. So so here's one that I
can't I wanted to. I'm not seeing it widely available.
Total turnovers in the game. I saw there was under
two and a half juice to the under. All right,
(13:00):
interceptions one and a half juice? Was it minus one
forty to the under one and a half to the over,
un run interceptions, fumbles one and a half the unders
minus two to seventy. That's lost fumbles. When we look
at Casey and Philadelphia as something that really stands out,
neither team turns them.
Speaker 5 (13:18):
All over very much.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
And in a game like this where I personally am
not expecting to see all this isn't going to be
a fourteen possession game. This is going to be like
an eight, nine to ten possession game, fewer possessions, fewer
chances for turnovers. I like under on the turnover props.
I don't see whether you find the total turnovers, interceptions, fumbles,
they're both a little juicy, But I don't see either
(13:44):
QB throwing a whole lot of picks, and I don't see,
you know, again, the fumbles, which Philadelphia has been very
lucky with in the postseason. Lost fumbles is the key here.
Remember the fumble itself doesn't do anything. A lost fumble
you need two of those to cash your pets. This
is one that made my card number of different players
(14:04):
to have a pass attempt in this ballgame. I took
the under two and a half and I laid minus
one eighty with it. Now it's very comfortable with that.
Go look at the season for Philadelphia and Kansas City.
You don't how many non quarterbacks have thrown a pass
for these two teams this year. Zero that's a regular season,
that's postseason, zero non qbs. Now, Carson wentz through pass.
(14:29):
We saw, you know, we saw when Hurts was banged up.
You know we've seen backup qbs come in and play.
So basically, if you're taking the under two and a
half players to have a pass attempt in the game
with the juice you're saying the quarterbacks aren't gonna get hurt.
Speaker 5 (14:47):
Yeah, and it came of this magnitude.
Speaker 2 (14:49):
I'm not expecting anyone but Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts
to throw a pass. You know this isn't one of
those all right, yeah, yeah, yeah, let's line it up
and try this particular trick. I see some trickery here,
but I don't think the trickery comes with another player
throwing a pass. When you have Hurts on one side
Mahomes on the other, you don't want your punter throw
(15:10):
it passes or any of that nonsense. So I played
under two and a half minus one eighty, and I
thought that was again reasonably priced for two teams that
haven't done it all season.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
Teddy, I don't know if you want me to jump
in here and ask some questions, but I love that, bet.
Speaker 4 (15:26):
I love the way that you shirtured it like that.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
I've done this in the past, and cash you did
bring up the Carson Wentz thing, but that almost comes
into you know, a bet of does a quarterback get
injured and then another quarterback have to come in which
could happen, but still at minus one eighty, I'd like
your bet. One question I would have for you, and
I haven't done this this research is are any of
the wide receivers were they quarterbacks in college?
Speaker 4 (15:54):
You know what I mean? Like they've really been eighty?
Speaker 2 (15:56):
Yeah? Sure, she has just a Josh Dobbs situation or something. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (16:00):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
And and this is what we know. Okay, nobody other
than the qbs have thrown a pass all year. Okay,
fair enough, Okay, maybe they were hot. I just think
maybe they're saving it, you know, uh, maybe they're saving it.
But again, if you're in the biggest game, do you
want someone that you know? Do you want your running back?
And I don't. I mean I can't think of anyone
(16:21):
from either team that.
Speaker 4 (16:22):
Was no me either, off the top of my head. Yeah,
it wouldn't be right. I give it. It'd be a
receiver most likely, but no, no, like the Batman.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
Yeah, I hope it cashes. Uh that's not It's great
to like it, But so are shortened? Turnovers were shortened
the number of players to have a pass attempt, let's.
Speaker 5 (16:46):
Short the shortest touchdown.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
And this didn't make my card for one reason all right,
didn't make my card because I'm I'm leaning under in
this game, and I don't think there's gonna be a
ton of possessions, which means I don't think there's going
to be a ton of touchdowns, and I don't think
there's going to be a ton of touchdowns. I don't
want to betting shortest touchdown or longest touchdown of the
game props because you don't get enough tds. That being said,
shortest touchdown of the game under one and a half yards?
(17:09):
What's that minus minus one sixty five. I'm not sure
if that's still the number, but that's a little juice again.
Shortest TV has to be a one yard touchdown to
cash and it's minus one sixty five favorite.
Speaker 5 (17:23):
What does that tell you?
Speaker 2 (17:25):
It tells you were likely to see a one yard
touchdown Cash. You know, what does Philly do when they
get to the one push push that's worked pretty well
over the years. What's the chances of a pass interference
or a penalty in the end zone that gives the
ball someone to the first and goal with the one
fairly reasonable these type of things happen, So shortest touchdown
(17:46):
of the game under one and a half yards. Again,
it's juicy, and I didn't bet it, but I certainly
lean in that direction. Is the shortest TV under one
and a half yards. That's one that made a whole
lot of sense to me. Score the final minutes of
the final two minutes of the first half.
Speaker 5 (18:05):
So minus three to thirty on the yes for this prop. Okay,
I really expect.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
To see you the last It's a little bit juicy. Again,
it was too juicy to make my card, all right.
I didn't want to lay three and a half to
one or close to it for a score in the
final two minutes of the first half. But these two
teams can score with seven seconds. That last drive before
(18:34):
halftime is a drive that the offenses take unbelievably seriously,
and they've gained plan four and we expect at least
one of the two teams to score in the final
two minutes, and after they score right at the two
minute warning, that's a.
Speaker 5 (18:47):
Cash as well.
Speaker 2 (18:48):
So I do like a score in the final two
minutes of the first half, but again that's juicy.
Speaker 5 (18:56):
Minus three to thirty.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
So I've gone through turnovers, shortest touchdown final two minutes
of the first half, Mahomes rushing yards, different players that
have passed attempts. Will the score be tied after zero zero, yes,
minus one twenty. I didn't bet it. It just makes
sense to me in a game that's priced in this range.
That said, when you have a kicker who's missing extra
(19:19):
points in field goals like Philadelphia has off like that
could be dicey. So that's why I didn't play that
specifically because I was worre. You know, you can hedge
off that with Elliott to miss an extra point or something,
but if you started heading, you off your props and
end up with ridiculous amount of stuff. But that's one
that certainly caught my eye. And then, like I said,
(19:40):
I've got nine plays up for the clients. You got
at least a couple of those. Now, I've got one
of those fear free play that I posted on my
page w Dot Buzz backslash TC. I'll give you some here.
I gave you some last week. And you know how
it is. We're doing free play videos from where you're talking.
If you haven't done so, you know, we appreciate the likes,
we appreciate the comments very much. But if you subscribe
(20:01):
as the channel. You'll get a shit ton of content
every day. Man, It's incredible how much content we're putting out.
That includes Super Bowl props and all that kind of stuff.
I've got videos that I'm planning on doing tomorrow for that.
So check out the wager Talk YouTube channel for more
prop betting info.
Speaker 1 (20:20):
Well said Teddy, Guys, shout out to the live chat
right now. We got Paul Blakeney in the house, Titan
CT Dan Chambers, Sports Avenger Memorabilia Larry in the house
as well. We got Southern California, San Diego Carlsbad, home
of the San Diego Chargers. I'm seeing, so guys, feel
free to throw out any questions in the live chat.
(20:41):
We got a couple coming your way here, Teddy, but
first I wanted to throw out one and get your
kind of thoughts on this. You bring up the kickers
having a little bit of trouble. It's towards that realm
the specialist. But if you check out these punters, Teddy,
guess what we get. We get two Ray Guy Award
punters facing off here. Braden Man Texas A and m
(21:02):
he's the punter for the Eagles, and Matt Riza. You
might remember his name from San Diego State. He's sure
enough made his rookie season now with the Chiefs. He
had an unfortunate situation, Teddy. I was seeing forty eight
as the average for both of these two guys. They've
both gone over seventy yards in terms of punt this season.
(21:25):
We get controlled climate. You know, they're in New Orleans
and both you you also talked about kind of those
short yard situations, don't. I don't think we're gonna get
a lot of kind of short yard, short yardage punts.
I like the over for the average of both of
these two punters. Do you like anything there?
Speaker 2 (21:46):
So it's a question that takes a lot to unpack.
Let's start with this conceptually. Last week, or the way
in the Philadelphia and Kansas City were in their respective
championship games, we saw a bull load of fourth down
conversion attempts. No one was punting. Everyone was going for it,
(22:10):
and Philly didn't have to worry about it too much.
They were pretty well comfortably in control of their game
against Washington, and the offense moved all up and down
the field. They didn't have to worry about punting that much.
So we have to start that particular prop, or any
punting prop by saying how many punts they're gonna be?
You know, do we expect a lot of punts or
do we expect a few punts? And I think we'll
(22:32):
see even though I'm expecting a relatively shortened game with
longer drives and slower pace, it's a scenario where I
would expect we're gonna see punts and not going forward
on fourth down the way we saw last time around.
It's a different feel to the two opponents. Washington was
a dead nuts over team. Buffalo in a sense with
(22:53):
a dead nuts over team. Both those offenses were explosive
and extraordinary. And uh and you read and Nick Sirianni,
We're like, we don't want field goals, we want touchdowns.
Speaker 5 (23:03):
Today.
Speaker 2 (23:04):
I feel like the super Bowl itself could be different
from that, which means more punts for what that's worth.
I have a punk prop on my card and it
kind of correlates with this. It's the only plus price
that I took and it's on a punk prop and
it stood out to me just looking at recent form
(23:26):
of these two kickers. Certainly you're talking about two guys
that have elite legs. But when you look at recent results,
there have been some issues. But the issues aren't short kicks.
Now you talk about are we gonna see the pin deep?
You know from the forty eight yard line. You know,
(23:48):
if Casey's cross midfielder at the forty eight, are they
gonna punt and try to pin them deep or are
they gonna go forward on fourth down? I wouldn't be
surprised if we see some pin deeps in this one.
That being said, if the offense, if it's like the
last Super Bowl, the offense is that between these two
teams and the offenses are boom boom boom down down
on the field, the game will play out differently. But
(24:08):
if it's not like the thirty eight to thirty five shootout,
we're gonna see punts and we may see some coffin
corner kicks in a way that perhaps you're not expecting.
So again I'm not betting it, it certainly makes some sense.
We are talking about two real good kickers, two real
good punters, and if you're punting from the thirty, you
(24:31):
know we can get the rolls and you know, a
seventy yard punt goes a long way towards helping you
catch that over.
Speaker 5 (24:38):
I'm not gonna talk you out of it. Not a
bet up prime to make.
Speaker 1 (24:41):
No, And that's a great point, Teddy, and I spend
a lot of time researching it in terms of trying
to stay away from like the coffin corner where you
lose and it's not because of the talent of the punter,
it's just the situation that happened, like you just went over.
But I do agree there could be more, But I
don't necessarily agree that in plus territory these two teams
(25:06):
aren't going to go for it. I think that's a difference.
And if they're punting from this side of the fifty,
you know, like you said on the thirty yard line,
I mean, I'm feeling good if they line up for
a punt and either of these two guys is punting
from their own thirty.
Speaker 2 (25:22):
Sure, anytime you got a guy whose name the nickname
is the punt God, you know, you know I raised
at Utah, was you know, it's as good as as
good as college kicker punter I've ever seen.
Speaker 4 (25:36):
Oh yeah, San Diego State.
Speaker 5 (25:39):
Yes, my apologies thinking up from Utah. Not sure, though
it doesn't matter.
Speaker 2 (25:46):
Yeah, somebody else, some phantom thing in my head. Yeah, sorry,
san Diego said, well done, true, thank you, and what
I'm wrong? Look, I'm wrong all the time I'm on
the air, so the brain doesn't work quite as well
as it did know the thirty years ago. If I'm wrong,
correct me, I don't. I don't the chat by all
means in the comments, it's fine. My feelings don't get hurt.
(26:09):
I'd rather the correct information get out there than'd be
given the wrong college or someone who the hell what MATC?
Speaker 5 (26:15):
It was a guy?
Speaker 2 (26:16):
It was guy from Utah?
Speaker 5 (26:18):
Was it? He's oh yeah, last name was guy.
Speaker 1 (26:21):
Yeah, Well, Teddy, we do have some questions.
Speaker 4 (26:25):
Should want to throw out anything else though with the prompts,
I mean.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
I'm done with it, really. I mean, I've given you props.
I've given you thought process on the whole Super Bowl.
I've given you as much side and totals. I can
give you a question away my friend.
Speaker 1 (26:40):
All right, Paul Blakeney from the other side of the
pond in Essex, England, has in. Yeah, yeah, he's in
the house. We got Titans CT in the house, questioned Teddy.
With the logic of Kansas City's defense focusing on Berkley.
Do you like his reception yards over fourteen.
Speaker 5 (26:58):
And a hook?
Speaker 2 (27:01):
No?
Speaker 1 (27:04):
Yeah, the receptions to it to a running back, that's
kind of tough. That's a tough handicap.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
So Pa Checko's one guy he might want to target
for receptions this week. That's one that he's done in
the Super Bowl in the past, he's been underutilized since
returning to health. Pa Checko's the guy I would look
at for receptions of the of the RBS. But one
thing that I'm really not looking to do is bet
(27:30):
a bunch of overs. Okay, everyone wants everything over. You
know this is going over. That's going over, This is
going Oh, it has to go over. And obviously Barkley
do that.
Speaker 5 (27:42):
I want catch.
Speaker 2 (27:45):
It's and it wouldn't shock me if he did. But
it's not a bet that caught my eye. It's not
a bet that I've made.
Speaker 1 (27:52):
Sports a vender askin does this game? Is it considered
emergency betting alert?
Speaker 6 (27:56):
Game?
Speaker 1 (27:57):
And any emergency betting alerts here in the proper market
to TC.
Speaker 2 (28:02):
So you know, from side to total standpoint there. I mean,
like I said when we talked last Monday, I'm like,
there's nothing doing with this line and it hasn't moved,
and there's no emergency betting alert for that, and you
know nothing. The emergency betting alerts are, in theory useful
when the lines are fresh. You know, we got virgin numbers.
(28:24):
We talk about Monday morning, when you can see this
line is likely to move, this one's likely to get hit,
we can talk about emergency betting alerts. I probably could
have talked about this when it came to the props
on Thursday night, but when they opened at Westgate. But
we're in a mature market right now, mature market for props,
mature market side and total. So the emergency betting alerts,
(28:49):
it's it's too late.
Speaker 5 (28:50):
There are none. The money's already moved.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
Teddy, you brought up going to the Westgate on Thursday night.
Are there any names you want to throw out there,
like good conversations, people you're excited to see.
Speaker 2 (29:05):
I'm trying to think who people would know. I mean,
I saw I saw Doug is Arian down. There's always
good to see Doug. You know, you remember talking from
his ESPN days. Patrick Everson's another guy who's out and
about all the time. To the reporting on the sports
betting industry.
Speaker 5 (29:21):
He was down.
Speaker 2 (29:21):
There was always good to see Pat. Uh. Surprising number
of odds makers around.
Speaker 5 (29:30):
You know, Rex Fiers is down. Rex Fires is always
a fun to talk to.
Speaker 2 (29:33):
I used to have him on my Serious Exempt show
as a guest, and you know, a former bookmaker and
certainly a guy who's got a lot of personality and
a lot of opinions.
Speaker 5 (29:44):
He's always fun to talk to.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
And then you know, there was a good handful of
why you know, the wise guys I'm not going to
talk about I'm not.
Speaker 5 (29:49):
Going to drop names, but you guys know who they are.
They're they're the famous sports betterers who are out there.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
Uh and either they or their representatives many of them
were in line at the super book, So I don't
know what are their names were there?
Speaker 1 (30:08):
Teddy, you brought up you brought up something in terms
of Westgate not changing what they're doing. And that's one
thing that's bothered me in the sports betting industry. If
I had to say one thing of the legalized sports
book that I'm not a fan of, it's you can
just tell that there will be a book that opens
(30:29):
up the line regardless of what sport it is, there's
an opening book, and granted they're not taking a lot
of money, and you can just go down the list.
I mean, college basketball is a great one to do
this with. Go look at the wager talk live on screen.
There will be a global book that opens up side
in total, all the way down, and then five minutes later,
two to three other books go right down and they're
(30:51):
within a half a point of almost all of them, Teddy.
So it tells me, you know, in some of these
risks rooms around, it's really like, it's not that tough
of a job.
Speaker 4 (31:04):
You just kind of go down and you copy off
of the first one. Almost. Man, I don't know if
you have any thoughts on that.
Speaker 1 (31:09):
It's not really a good thing in terms for the
sports betters in my opinion.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
No, I mean there's always been that sense of that.
But as long as you have books out there that
are willing to take opinions, that are willing to let's
give the Westgate credit. Here's a mature market. The Westgate
is like, well, we're not going to copy those numbers.
Let's put our numbers out. We think our numbers are better.
And that's a ballsy move. That's only a move you
can make when you don't have bean counters on your
(31:36):
ass every day, because sometimes you're right on this stuff
and sometimes you're wrong on this stuff, and when the
bean counters are giving you grief, you can't make moves
like that.
Speaker 5 (31:43):
So we'll give the Westgate credit for doing that.
Speaker 2 (31:49):
But it's not a scenario, Drew, in which one book
or any given book is controlling the markets, all right.
It is a diffuse marketplace out there, and we talk
about the industry leaders, whether it's DK, whether it's FanDuel,
whether it's Caesar's MGM.
Speaker 5 (32:07):
Those are the four biggest books. In between them, they're
like ninety percent of the market or close to it.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
Though none of those books are great for wise guy betters,
all right, not a one of them. Everybody gets limited
and if you bet successfully, you have a problem maintaining
relationship with those books. That's one of the advantages of
the betting exchanges of the smaller books when it comes
to a national footprint. But the books here in Vegas,
(32:36):
like Westgate, like Southpoint, like Circa, who will take a
bet and won't limit you. So I mean to me,
that's impactful in that sense. I don't know if I
answer your question or not.
Speaker 1 (32:51):
No, No, it's fine. Lee in the house saying thoughts
on over forty nine.
Speaker 4 (32:54):
Lee.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
Actually, in the beginning of the video we went over
both side and total. It kind of leads me into
the totals betting. I don't know that we went over
this one at least on this show yet, though, Teddy,
that's that's fun for me, is you know, first score
of the game, you know, five minutes, in six minutes,
in seven minutes, in any thought on that one, because
that's more the rip off your band aid, you know,
(33:17):
sweat it out right in the beginning of the Super Bowl.
I know a lot of people like that one.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
Yeah, it's certainly better than the over runner of the
national anthem.
Speaker 5 (33:25):
Which is always a sweat.
Speaker 2 (33:27):
But what's interesting at the West Gate and I like this,
Will either team score in the first three and a
half minutes of the game? Yes, plus four dollars? Will
either team score the first four and a half minutes
of the game? Yes plus two forty Will either team
score in the first five and a half minutes of
the game? Yes plus one thirty will either team score
(33:49):
in the first six and a half minutes of the game,
that's the minus one ten. Either way, we'll either team
score the first seven half or seven and a half
minutes of the game, yes, minus one seventy five. So
between three and a half at yes plus four dollars
and seven and a half minutes at minus one seventy five.
(34:10):
You know, if you want to know, you can bet
them all, you know.
Speaker 1 (34:16):
And Teddy, I believe that the city it's either the
five and a half or the six and a half
is on a six and one the last seven.
Speaker 4 (34:23):
Years to no score.
Speaker 1 (34:24):
It's been a you know, a slow start to Super Bowls,
if you will, even though.
Speaker 4 (34:30):
Some Super Bowls are high scoring, not in the beginning.
Speaker 5 (34:34):
So again, I have one of those on my client report. Okay, and.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
I'm with you on the concept of the uh the
game starting a little bit slow, and that's just the
way these games roll, you know. And look, someone could
take the opening kick and methodically move down the field
and punch in a score on the first drive game
and you can still cash on your well, there are
(35:05):
no bets as long as the drive is longer and slower.
You know, you don't even need a punt, you know,
you just need a longer, slower drive to open the game,
even if it's a scoring drive, and if you can
get five and a half, six and a half seven
a half minutes out of it, like both these teams
are capable of doing on any given day, you can
catch that over bet even if they score on the
(35:25):
first drive.
Speaker 1 (35:27):
Teddy, feel free to be short with this. Any novelty
props that you get involved with, do you have any
opinions on any of them?
Speaker 4 (35:35):
Halftime, Taylor Swift, anything like that.
Speaker 2 (35:39):
So back in the day, you spent a ton of
time working on this stuff. And I went back and
looked at my results for putting that time in, and
my results were.
Speaker 5 (35:49):
It wasn't worth it.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
So all the cross sports prop they're interesting to consider,
but it's a big handicap. And now you're adding to
the questions of your is not just one side is question?
Now both sides. You have to handicap you know what
I mean. You're not just handingahapping one player, You're handing
him me. Okay, I have handicapped this one player, and
I have to handicap whether the Red Wings are going
(36:12):
to get a goal in the first period or not,
you know, or that kind of stuff.
Speaker 5 (36:17):
It adds more uncertainty to it.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
So again fun recreational five bucks here, ten bucks there,
twenty bucks there, fifty bucks there. Fine, go have a
good time, but they're not bets that I've put a
lot of time into the Taylor Swift stuff. Again, what
will the announcer say stuff? I mean again, you might
be able to find edges. I'd rather put my time
(36:40):
in handinghapping basketball right now. That's where the money is
moving forward, not trying to figure out Taylor Swift. And
you know, we had a great weekend betting hoops this
past weekend, and then we'll see if we can keep
it rolling in the new week. But in a time
management issue, I'm not going to spend a shit ton
of time working on Taylor Swift props and how long
the national anthem's kind.
Speaker 5 (36:59):
Of or what color the gatorade is going to be.
Speaker 2 (37:02):
You know, there's more money and better best to be
made putting your time elsewhere.
Speaker 5 (37:06):
There really is.
Speaker 1 (37:08):
Yeah, and by this time a lot of them have
moved anyway, Like, for instance, we talked last week on
what the MVP will say first, who he will think first,
and we brought up god slash religion, and I brought
up the fact Patrick Mahomes he did it last time.
Speaker 4 (37:24):
He's like a pretty good you know with his.
Speaker 1 (37:27):
Speech, And sure enough, Teddy, I went and looked before
it's minus one ninety. Now, so the market moves on
this stuff. It's not rocket size, it's you.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
Know, significantly, yeah know, but yeah, I mean that's you know,
one of the issues of getting you know, why we
talk about this stuff early. Why my prop report was
out early. Why this side of total we're our early.
You know, if you're you could wait, and that's fine,
but you gotta be wait to be betting against these
moves that you know they're gonna come.
Speaker 1 (37:56):
Not with sure Teddy. Okay, we got one more question here.
Dano in the house saying, how about first turnover prop?
He likes the fumble. Have you ever been involved with
that interception, fumble, anything like that for the first turnover?
Speaker 4 (38:11):
That could be an exciting one.
Speaker 2 (38:13):
So first turnover, and again I read out some turnover
numbers before the total turnovers under two and azer under
two and a half, interception one and a half, the
unders minus one forty, fumble one and a half, the
under minus two to seventy. This is the issue with
fumble all right, you can fumble, but the other team
(38:34):
has to recover it. That's the key, and that's why
you know the chance of a fumble and interception aren't
dramatically different. There are more interceptions in fumbles, but not
way more, but recovered fumbles. There are way more interceptions
than recovered fumbles. And that's why you're seeing the prices
where it is. So again, to me, that's a fairly
(38:56):
random prop. I like total turnovers under, and I wouldn't
argue with under interceptions or under fumbles. So I'm about again.
You're looking for the plus price. Everyone's looking for the
plus price. Look for some minus prices.
Speaker 4 (39:15):
Teddy, should we wait for next week for NFL draft futures? Yeah,
first pick over, Okay, we will be that.
Speaker 2 (39:23):
I know there's been a lot of movement on that
of late with what the kid out of Penn State
taking a bunch of money. But next week we'll talk
a little bit about NFL draft futures. We'll talk about
NFL or you know, we'll tell a little bit about
the NFL draft, we'll talk about futures for next season.
I'll be exciting to see if we have win totals.
Posted by next Monday. I doubt we will, but if
(39:43):
we If we do, we'll run through them. We'll talk
about the future book odds, We'll go through and graine
some of these props. The show after super Bowl Sunday,
the Monday show Afterable Sunday. It's a fun show. So
I encourage you to come back again next week for
one last edition of the Way You Talk NFL Opening
Line Report before the season is through, because yeah, going
(40:06):
through some of these prop results and some of the
crazy shit that happened, it's always a lot of fun
today after and it gives us a chance to put
a bow on the season and a bow on the
playoffs and.
Speaker 5 (40:16):
Take a look ahead. So it's a show again.
Speaker 2 (40:18):
I mean, so the you know the TV show, the
Beat the Odds TV show that I do.
Speaker 5 (40:23):
This is the last week. You know, they're done for
the Way You Talk beat on it.
Speaker 2 (40:28):
After this week, you know, nothing till there's no post
super Bowl until the March badness.
Speaker 5 (40:33):
I like that post super Bowl show. I think it helps.
Speaker 2 (40:36):
It helps me, It helps the focus and as I talk,
helps me start thinking about it. Some of the teams
I want to be focusing on in the off season.
So I encourage you to check back and hang out
with us again next Monday, because this Monday, like always,
is fun and hopefully.
Speaker 4 (40:52):
Get you ready for the off season.
Speaker 1 (40:54):
Of course, Teddy has the season win Total report coming
out in the off season as well.
Speaker 4 (40:59):
I'm sure this key you up for that.
Speaker 1 (41:01):
And yeah, guys will be back next Monday, ten am
Pacific time, so come back and join us. Also comment
below if you're watching on replay, feel free to fire
away any questions.
Speaker 4 (41:10):
We'll answer them on next week's show. What you're looking
to bet as well?
Speaker 1 (41:13):
Any props side total all welcome in the comments below.
TC and myself will be in there throughout the week
chiming in. But Teddy throw it back over to you man.
Great show as always. I think you got a five
percent big ticket up here at wagertalk dot com, I believe,
and anything else you want to throw out before we
shut it down.
Speaker 2 (41:34):
Yeah, let me give you guys some boss up promo codes.
I mean, obviously, I love doing the show, I love
providing information for you guys each and every day, each
and every week.
Speaker 5 (41:45):
But I got a.
Speaker 2 (41:48):
Service man, if you're interested. We have this great problem
right now. The Super Bowl is Super Bowl all Access.
If you buy today, you get everything before the Super
Bowl as well. But it's ninety nine bucks up month
for a twelve you know, for through every play, every
day and every sport, including all five percents through next
year's Super Bowl. Check it out WT dot buzz backslash
(42:10):
TC no promo code needia. Do you use that for me?
You can use it for Drew. You can use that
for any of the cappers at wadotalk dot com. We've
also got a sports specific promo. You Sport fifty at
checkout promo code sport five. Oh sport fifty at checkout
and take fifty bucks off a thirty day NBA All
(42:31):
Access pass. NBA is starting to click. Man, it took
a while this year before it got going, but I'm
real comfortable with where we're at right now. And as
you mentioned, Drew, I do have a single five percent
big ticket play available in college Hoops for Monday Night
for tonight. Get that right now again, WT dot buzz
backslash TC better than sixty percent with my College Hoops
(42:54):
five percent big tickets since twenty twenty two, long term
success and on a seventy percent five percent pick ticket
run across sports since last September. So check it out
right now on my page buzz x last TC if
you want to get on board, and if not, thank
you for watching. Appreciate the comments, Appreciate the follows, Appreciate
the likes very very much. There's no I'm gonna sell
(43:16):
if you want to get it. If you don't, that's fine.
I'm not mad at you. It's okay. I know there
are some people that want to get on board with
a handicap or other people don't.
Speaker 5 (43:23):
That's okay. But if you want to partner up, good
time to do so right now.
Speaker 2 (43:28):
Myself or Drew Martin a Redwagotalk dot com.
Speaker 1 (43:33):
Well said Teddy Bit Monday going tonight in college hoops.
Check it out Teddy coverswager Talk dot Com. I am
Drew Martin. Guys, that's going to do it for the show.
We will be back next week. Super Bowl recap getting
you ready for the offseason, NFL Draft talk as well
for Teddy Covers, I Drew Martin comment below smash that
like button, enjoy the Super Bowl.
Speaker 4 (43:51):
Cash those tickets guys. Thanks for tuning in.
Speaker 5 (44:04):
Constant different.
Speaker 6 (44:30):
To the bunting doesn't busts the project doesn't
Speaker 2 (45:18):
Yeah,
We are breaking down the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles
spread total but mainly props. On this show, I am
Drew Martin, joined as always by Teddy Covers. Teddy, Happy
Monday morning to you, buddy. Super Bowl week is upon us.
Welcome into the show.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
It sure is upon us. You ready, I'm ready. I'm
telling you. The energy in Vegas is awesome. And the
two weeks, you know, leading up to Super Bowl, you
go out about in town and just there's buzz. The
sports books are busy, everyone's excited, there's money flowing in,
and of course the lines are moving. So I love
this time of year in Vegas and this is kind
of the calm before the storm. The majority, the vast
(00:38):
majority of big game action comes into the seventy two
hours before kickoff Friday Saturday Sunday morning. So what we've
seen now, we've seen what the wise guys like. So
we could talk about it on today's show. As you mentioned,
mostly props, you know, but let's start with side and
total because I think what I said last.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
Week has held up. But nothing's happening, and that's the truth, Teddy.
I was actually gonna give you props. I mean We've
talked about this before in big time games and coming
up to like Week one of the NFL, there's movement
when it first comes out, and then there's a little
bit of a dead period and there isn't much movement
unless there's some kind of key injury or something, which
(01:19):
to my knowledge, there is not here.
Speaker 4 (01:21):
With the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
So it's kind of of the norm to have this
little dead period and then, like you're talking about seventy
two hours before, there's gonna be some big movement here, possibly.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
Not on the side in total. Okay, it's going nowhere,
all right. I mean, we talked about it last week
at the Open. I'm like, I don't see this side
moving a whole lot. I don't see this total moving
a whole lot. And that's been the case. I've heard
reports and rumors from some of my sharp friends in town.
They think Philly money is going to show before kickoff.
(01:54):
That being said, I'm seeing some of the consensus numbers
showing that Casey's you know, well two thirds plus of
the public money coming in on Kansas City. I don't
know that we're gonna see this wise guy move towards
Philly happen in the real way again hasn't happened yet.
Looking at the wager Talk free live on screen, there's
(02:16):
no indicators. There's no leading indicator books that are saying
Philly's about to take money.
Speaker 5 (02:21):
I'm not this expected.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
Wise guy support for Philadelphia that hasn't really come through yet.
Maybe it'll come and maybe it'll be enough to move
the line, but I'm not seeing signs of it. And again,
I would expect Kansas City to go off in this
same range that we're seeing them now minus one, minus
one and a half money line total sitting in the
(02:45):
forty nine range. I don't think that's doing anything. Money
line still in the minus one twenty to minus one
thirty range for the Chiefs, depending on where you shot round.
I don't see that moving a whole lot between now
and kickoff. But like I said, some of my sharp
so my sharp friends, are fairly confident that money will
(03:06):
show for Philadelphia before kickoff. Whether it's enough money on
a game of this magnitude to move the number, we'll
have to see. But there is some sharp support for Philadelphia.
Then again, there was sharp support for Casey right at
the open, So I'm not anticipating anything not side not total,
and again the public's gonna come in with some over money.
(03:28):
The wise guys are gonna take everything about forty nine
and bet the under. So this line's not moving a
whole lot. I don't see a whole lot of movement
between now. You know, we're talking about the seventy two hours.
Even though seventy two hours, I'm not expecting this line
to move in any significant way. Meeting Philadelphia becomes a favorite,
Meeting Kents City gets to three.
Speaker 5 (03:45):
Neither one of those things is gonna happen.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Sure, Teddy and we are seeing minus one and a
half forty nine to be the consensus number right now. However,
there is minus one out there select shops. If you
go to the Wager talk live on screen, there's also
forty eight and a half juice to the over out there. So,
like Teddy's saying, there, there isn't a whole lot of
movement to this point. We're likely not to get any
(04:08):
both sides and totals is what it sounds like.
Speaker 5 (04:10):
TC.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Before we get into the props that you want to
throw out anything else with side and total.
Speaker 5 (04:17):
I mean, we could beat the dead horse to death
if you want.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
We're gonna about I mean total, Wise, we will see
a dichotomy between the books that cater to public betters
and the books are cater to wise guys. The public
betters are going to bet the over in this game.
The wise guys have already made a case for the under.
So that is legit sharp Square divide pros under Joe's
(04:42):
over sidewise two way action you know. So uh, and
that's I don't anticipate any type of the Sharp Book's
going to be at this and the Square Books is
going to be at this for for the side, but
for the total there could well be you know, forty
eight and a half for the Sharp books, forty nine
and a half at the Square books. And that forty
(05:03):
nine off obviously a key number, which is why we
genuinely and repeatedly encourage you have more accounts. Not about
putting everything I want account. It's about having every legal
account available to use. You can get those free half
points as opposed to buying them just by shopping around.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Sure, and a good resource is using the way to
talk live on screen as well. Guys check them out
and get the best number. So Teddy talking about some
props here, of course, It is a fun thing to bet,
like we talked about last week. Though, don't kind of
pepper the board too.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
Much, guys. That's one bit of advice I would give TC.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
So I have done Super Bowls in my past where
I've just had too many prop bets and it's like
not enjoyable to watch because you don't really know what
the roof for. That's one bit of advice I would
have if you're just kind of getting into this. But Teddy,
I'll throw it over to you, man, what's kind of
on your mind betting some of these props?
Speaker 5 (05:55):
So I want to refer first to what you were
talking about right there.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
All right, this is Chris for sports betters. All right,
the Super Bowl is our national betting holiday, and everyone
wants to bet.
Speaker 5 (06:06):
I do you do? Drew does?
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Everybody does? Okay, it's okay. Keep your unit sizes small
and you can pepper the board with the action. If
you used to bet in the hundred bucks, maybe you
bet twenty bucks on these props and you can pepper
the board or at twenty bucks here, twenty bucks, there
no big deal. You used to bet in a dime,
maybe you know you bet one hundred or two hundred
(06:28):
on your props and keep your unit sizes small. It
takes a lot of the stress out of the equation
and puts a lot more of the fun into the equation.
Not that these aren't positive expectation wagers, all right. There
are certainly post vectation wagers, and some many, many of
the sharp betters they know, will load up on Super
Bowl Sunday. They'll have their entire bankroll in play in
one way or another. Now, some of that is certainly,
(06:51):
you know, looking for middles, you know where they're betting
under a high number and then over a lower number,
and you know it's not all truly at risk. But
lots of shark guys put they see significant portion of
their bankroll in play this week as a casual better.
We don't want to do that, all right, You don't
want to do that. So it's okay to pepper the
(07:11):
board to make a good handful of wagers. I've got
a nine play proper port up the wagertalk dot com.
I'm gonna talk about a couple of them here in
a minute. But my unit sizes are small, you know,
I usually bet three, four or five units for an
NFL game, and my prop bets are quarter of a unit,
half a unit for.
Speaker 5 (07:28):
What it's worth, you know, so significantly smaller.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
And that's the way to have fun on You're both Sunday,
you know, keep your bet small, keep your prop bets small.
You can make a bunch of them, but don't go
nuts on this stuff. And of course, you know, I'm
sitting here with the this the super book sheet. It's
fifty pages and it's just, you know, it's insaneive going
through it is like I'm reading a book. And then
(07:52):
as you go through it you want to have a
handicap of the game. In the back of your mind.
You're coming up with a whole bunch of stuff. Hey,
let's go, you know, circle, let's come back to this circle. Come,
let's back to this. Look at the hard numbers. I
found nine that I like, never a good handful that
I probably could have bet too.
Speaker 5 (08:07):
They didn't put on their reports. I didn't want too much.
Let's tell this to them. Now here's one that I bet.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
All right, this is one other factor here, Drew, before
we start getting into some of this stuff. This is
classic sharp square divide stuff, and it's important to talk
about the pros are very willing to lay juice betting
a lot to win a little when they have the
odds in their favor On Super Bowl Sunday, so many
(08:34):
of the props you're gonna hear me today, you talk
about today, they're not plus price pops. They're minus place
prop minus price props, but they're favorites for a reason.
The casual betters looking to bet a little to win
a lot. The professional better, the wise guy is much
more comfortable betting a lot to win a little than
(08:56):
the casual betters. And that's the way you kind of
chip away. At least I do a lot on Super
Bowl Sunday. I'm not betting the Yes safety or the
Yes overtime or the Yes missed extra point, even though
we could have a missed extra point here.
Speaker 5 (09:08):
You know, the big.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
Plus price props are not gonna call them sucker bets,
but there's certainly public bets. You know, we've seen overtimes,
we've seen safeties. It happens, But the math is it
right to back those relatively long shot propositions.
Speaker 5 (09:28):
They're square bets. I don't make them.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
I'm very comfortable laying prices as opposed to taking prices
and the props I want to talk about right here.
I don't think there's any of them that are plus
price that I was looking for one. I'm like, there's
gotta be one good one plus price here, and I didn't.
I don't have one for you on my list of
stuff I wanted to talk about.
Speaker 5 (09:48):
So let's talk about some props, Drew if you like.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
Yeah, absolutely TC And it sounds like you went over
some game props. You know, most of these sports books,
it's like game props, and then it's another tab for
player props.
Speaker 4 (10:01):
And sometimes I noticed player props.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
Yes, they'll get up to like minus one forty, minus
one fifty, but a lot of times you can tell
they're trying to keep it around that minus one ten Teddy.
Speaker 4 (10:10):
So in that standpoint, I don't know that there would be.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
Like as big of a sharp square like lay a
lot to win a little, whereas these games like go
to overtime, you know, things of that nature that that
gets a little a little tricky in terms of just
the you know, the price point on some of those.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
Sure, and and so they're showing a player Pp'm gonna
talk about right of the ball. Let's talk about Patrick
Mahomes because this is when I was at the Westgate
Super Bowl for the prop party on Thursday night, when
all the numbers come up, and I'll give the Westgate credit,
you know, I really will. The marketplace has changed dramatically.
When they used to have the prop party on Thursday night,
they were basically posting into a virgin market, you know,
(10:52):
virgin numbers, and there was a first action out there.
Now in the modern world, you know, FANDUL, DraftKings, MG,
they all had props out already, so they were putting
their numbers up into a mature marketplace. And yet they
didn't change their strategy at all. It was like, we're
gonna post our numbers and if we're gonna get arbitrage,
we'll get arbitrage.
Speaker 5 (11:13):
So be it.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
We think our numbers are right, which is something I
respect as opposed to all right, now, we're gonna put
up market numbers on this stuff, and a lot of
the first bets, you know, they were estimating fifty to
sixty percent of the first bets coming in are all
arbitrage on Thursday night. That being said, certainly one thing
they got hit with they were betting the court both
quarterbacks rushing yards over Yard's over attempts over Patrick Mahomes
(11:36):
got hit pretty significantly. They moved the yard. You know,
usually they're gonna move the juice. They actually moved the
yards up on Mahomes. You know, they set themselves up
for a middle. But Mahomes rushing yards now with thirty
and a half from the open twenty eight and a
half at the West Gate, and that's one that got
immediate wise guy action right off the gig, right from
(11:56):
the get go. Mahomes over rushing yards, Mahomes over we
rushing attempts and Hurts too, took action. Both qbs expected
to run the football. And that's some of the first
bets that we saw, some of the bigger bets that
we saw on the Thursday night at the West Gate.
Speaker 5 (12:14):
And it's always fun down there, dude, that says a
wise guy party. Due.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
I see a bunch of guys that haven't seen in
a while. You know a lot of times you' seen
at the beginning of football season. I see him all
summer in August and we can run around gett numbers,
and you don't see him again until Super Bowl rolls around.
So it's always fun. It's always a scene in there,
and it's something one of those you know, if you're
gonna come to Vegas for an event, you're not coming
in for the Westgate properlease on Thursday night. You know
you're coming in for the super Bowl itself or for
(12:39):
March Madness or something like that. But it is one
of those deals. If you happen to be in town,
it's really worth going down and checking out our friends
at the west Gate. So so here's one that I
can't I wanted to. I'm not seeing it widely available.
Total turnovers in the game. I saw there was under
two and a half juice to the under. All right,
(13:00):
interceptions one and a half juice? Was it minus one
forty to the under one and a half to the over,
un run interceptions, fumbles one and a half the unders
minus two to seventy. That's lost fumbles. When we look
at Casey and Philadelphia as something that really stands out,
neither team turns them.
Speaker 5 (13:18):
All over very much.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
And in a game like this where I personally am
not expecting to see all this isn't going to be
a fourteen possession game. This is going to be like
an eight, nine to ten possession game, fewer possessions, fewer
chances for turnovers. I like under on the turnover props.
I don't see whether you find the total turnovers, interceptions, fumbles,
they're both a little juicy, But I don't see either
(13:44):
QB throwing a whole lot of picks, and I don't see,
you know, again, the fumbles, which Philadelphia has been very
lucky with in the postseason. Lost fumbles is the key here.
Remember the fumble itself doesn't do anything. A lost fumble
you need two of those to cash your pets. This
is one that made my card number of different players
(14:04):
to have a pass attempt in this ballgame. I took
the under two and a half and I laid minus
one eighty with it. Now it's very comfortable with that.
Go look at the season for Philadelphia and Kansas City.
You don't how many non quarterbacks have thrown a pass
for these two teams this year. Zero that's a regular season,
that's postseason, zero non qbs. Now, Carson wentz through pass.
(14:29):
We saw, you know, we saw when Hurts was banged up.
You know we've seen backup qbs come in and play.
So basically, if you're taking the under two and a
half players to have a pass attempt in the game
with the juice you're saying the quarterbacks aren't gonna get hurt.
Speaker 5 (14:47):
Yeah, and it came of this magnitude.
Speaker 2 (14:49):
I'm not expecting anyone but Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts
to throw a pass. You know this isn't one of
those all right, yeah, yeah, yeah, let's line it up
and try this particular trick. I see some trickery here,
but I don't think the trickery comes with another player
throwing a pass. When you have Hurts on one side
Mahomes on the other, you don't want your punter throw
(15:10):
it passes or any of that nonsense. So I played
under two and a half minus one eighty, and I
thought that was again reasonably priced for two teams that
haven't done it all season.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
Teddy, I don't know if you want me to jump
in here and ask some questions, but I love that, bet.
Speaker 4 (15:26):
I love the way that you shirtured it like that.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
I've done this in the past, and cash you did
bring up the Carson Wentz thing, but that almost comes
into you know, a bet of does a quarterback get
injured and then another quarterback have to come in which
could happen, but still at minus one eighty, I'd like
your bet. One question I would have for you, and
I haven't done this this research is are any of
the wide receivers were they quarterbacks in college?
Speaker 4 (15:54):
You know what I mean? Like they've really been eighty?
Speaker 2 (15:56):
Yeah? Sure, she has just a Josh Dobbs situation or something. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (16:00):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
And and this is what we know. Okay, nobody other
than the qbs have thrown a pass all year. Okay,
fair enough, Okay, maybe they were hot. I just think
maybe they're saving it, you know, uh, maybe they're saving it.
But again, if you're in the biggest game, do you
want someone that you know? Do you want your running back?
And I don't. I mean I can't think of anyone
(16:21):
from either team that.
Speaker 4 (16:22):
Was no me either, off the top of my head. Yeah,
it wouldn't be right. I give it. It'd be a
receiver most likely, but no, no, like the Batman.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
Yeah, I hope it cashes. Uh that's not It's great
to like it, But so are shortened? Turnovers were shortened
the number of players to have a pass attempt, let's.
Speaker 5 (16:46):
Short the shortest touchdown.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
And this didn't make my card for one reason all right,
didn't make my card because I'm I'm leaning under in
this game, and I don't think there's gonna be a
ton of possessions, which means I don't think there's going
to be a ton of touchdowns, and I don't think
there's going to be a ton of touchdowns. I don't
want to betting shortest touchdown or longest touchdown of the
game props because you don't get enough tds. That being said,
shortest touchdown of the game under one and a half yards?
(17:09):
What's that minus minus one sixty five. I'm not sure
if that's still the number, but that's a little juice again.
Shortest TV has to be a one yard touchdown to
cash and it's minus one sixty five favorite.
Speaker 5 (17:23):
What does that tell you?
Speaker 2 (17:25):
It tells you were likely to see a one yard
touchdown Cash. You know, what does Philly do when they
get to the one push push that's worked pretty well
over the years. What's the chances of a pass interference
or a penalty in the end zone that gives the
ball someone to the first and goal with the one
fairly reasonable these type of things happen, So shortest touchdown
(17:46):
of the game under one and a half yards. Again,
it's juicy, and I didn't bet it, but I certainly
lean in that direction. Is the shortest TV under one
and a half yards. That's one that made a whole
lot of sense to me. Score the final minutes of
the final two minutes of the first half.
Speaker 5 (18:05):
So minus three to thirty on the yes for this prop. Okay,
I really expect.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
To see you the last It's a little bit juicy. Again,
it was too juicy to make my card, all right.
I didn't want to lay three and a half to
one or close to it for a score in the
final two minutes of the first half. But these two
teams can score with seven seconds. That last drive before
(18:34):
halftime is a drive that the offenses take unbelievably seriously,
and they've gained plan four and we expect at least
one of the two teams to score in the final
two minutes, and after they score right at the two
minute warning, that's a.
Speaker 5 (18:47):
Cash as well.
Speaker 2 (18:48):
So I do like a score in the final two
minutes of the first half, but again that's juicy.
Speaker 5 (18:56):
Minus three to thirty.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
So I've gone through turnovers, shortest touchdown final two minutes
of the first half, Mahomes rushing yards, different players that
have passed attempts. Will the score be tied after zero zero, yes,
minus one twenty. I didn't bet it. It just makes
sense to me in a game that's priced in this range.
That said, when you have a kicker who's missing extra
(19:19):
points in field goals like Philadelphia has off like that
could be dicey. So that's why I didn't play that
specifically because I was worre. You know, you can hedge
off that with Elliott to miss an extra point or something,
but if you started heading, you off your props and
end up with ridiculous amount of stuff. But that's one
that certainly caught my eye. And then, like I said,
(19:40):
I've got nine plays up for the clients. You got
at least a couple of those. Now, I've got one
of those fear free play that I posted on my
page w Dot Buzz backslash TC. I'll give you some here.
I gave you some last week. And you know how
it is. We're doing free play videos from where you're talking.
If you haven't done so, you know, we appreciate the likes,
we appreciate the comments very much. But if you subscribe
(20:01):
as the channel. You'll get a shit ton of content
every day. Man, It's incredible how much content we're putting out.
That includes Super Bowl props and all that kind of stuff.
I've got videos that I'm planning on doing tomorrow for that.
So check out the wager Talk YouTube channel for more
prop betting info.
Speaker 1 (20:20):
Well said Teddy, Guys, shout out to the live chat
right now. We got Paul Blakeney in the house, Titan
CT Dan Chambers, Sports Avenger Memorabilia Larry in the house
as well. We got Southern California, San Diego Carlsbad, home
of the San Diego Chargers. I'm seeing, so guys, feel
free to throw out any questions in the live chat.
(20:41):
We got a couple coming your way here, Teddy, but
first I wanted to throw out one and get your
kind of thoughts on this. You bring up the kickers
having a little bit of trouble. It's towards that realm
the specialist. But if you check out these punters, Teddy,
guess what we get. We get two Ray Guy Award
punters facing off here. Braden Man Texas A and m
(21:02):
he's the punter for the Eagles, and Matt Riza. You
might remember his name from San Diego State. He's sure
enough made his rookie season now with the Chiefs. He
had an unfortunate situation, Teddy. I was seeing forty eight
as the average for both of these two guys. They've
both gone over seventy yards in terms of punt this season.
(21:25):
We get controlled climate. You know, they're in New Orleans
and both you you also talked about kind of those
short yard situations, don't. I don't think we're gonna get
a lot of kind of short yard, short yardage punts.
I like the over for the average of both of
these two punters. Do you like anything there?
Speaker 2 (21:46):
So it's a question that takes a lot to unpack.
Let's start with this conceptually. Last week, or the way
in the Philadelphia and Kansas City were in their respective
championship games, we saw a bull load of fourth down
conversion attempts. No one was punting. Everyone was going for it,
(22:10):
and Philly didn't have to worry about it too much.
They were pretty well comfortably in control of their game
against Washington, and the offense moved all up and down
the field. They didn't have to worry about punting that much.
So we have to start that particular prop, or any
punting prop by saying how many punts they're gonna be?
You know, do we expect a lot of punts or
do we expect a few punts? And I think we'll
(22:32):
see even though I'm expecting a relatively shortened game with
longer drives and slower pace, it's a scenario where I
would expect we're gonna see punts and not going forward
on fourth down the way we saw last time around.
It's a different feel to the two opponents. Washington was
a dead nuts over team. Buffalo in a sense with
(22:53):
a dead nuts over team. Both those offenses were explosive
and extraordinary. And uh and you read and Nick Sirianni,
We're like, we don't want field goals, we want touchdowns.
Speaker 5 (23:03):
Today.
Speaker 2 (23:04):
I feel like the super Bowl itself could be different
from that, which means more punts for what that's worth.
I have a punk prop on my card and it
kind of correlates with this. It's the only plus price
that I took and it's on a punk prop and
it stood out to me just looking at recent form
(23:26):
of these two kickers. Certainly you're talking about two guys
that have elite legs. But when you look at recent results,
there have been some issues. But the issues aren't short kicks.
Now you talk about are we gonna see the pin deep?
You know from the forty eight yard line. You know,
(23:48):
if Casey's cross midfielder at the forty eight, are they
gonna punt and try to pin them deep or are
they gonna go forward on fourth down? I wouldn't be
surprised if we see some pin deeps in this one.
That being said, if the offense, if it's like the
last Super Bowl, the offense is that between these two
teams and the offenses are boom boom boom down down
on the field, the game will play out differently. But
(24:08):
if it's not like the thirty eight to thirty five shootout,
we're gonna see punts and we may see some coffin
corner kicks in a way that perhaps you're not expecting.
So again I'm not betting it, it certainly makes some sense.
We are talking about two real good kickers, two real
good punters, and if you're punting from the thirty, you
(24:31):
know we can get the rolls and you know, a
seventy yard punt goes a long way towards helping you
catch that over.
Speaker 5 (24:38):
I'm not gonna talk you out of it. Not a
bet up prime to make.
Speaker 1 (24:41):
No, And that's a great point, Teddy, and I spend
a lot of time researching it in terms of trying
to stay away from like the coffin corner where you
lose and it's not because of the talent of the punter,
it's just the situation that happened, like you just went over.
But I do agree there could be more, But I
don't necessarily agree that in plus territory these two teams
(25:06):
aren't going to go for it. I think that's a difference.
And if they're punting from this side of the fifty,
you know, like you said on the thirty yard line,
I mean, I'm feeling good if they line up for
a punt and either of these two guys is punting
from their own thirty.
Speaker 2 (25:22):
Sure, anytime you got a guy whose name the nickname
is the punt God, you know, you know I raised
at Utah, was you know, it's as good as as
good as college kicker punter I've ever seen.
Speaker 4 (25:36):
Oh yeah, San Diego State.
Speaker 5 (25:39):
Yes, my apologies thinking up from Utah. Not sure, though
it doesn't matter.
Speaker 2 (25:46):
Yeah, somebody else, some phantom thing in my head. Yeah, sorry,
san Diego said, well done, true, thank you, and what
I'm wrong? Look, I'm wrong all the time I'm on
the air, so the brain doesn't work quite as well
as it did know the thirty years ago. If I'm wrong,
correct me, I don't. I don't the chat by all
means in the comments, it's fine. My feelings don't get hurt.
(26:09):
I'd rather the correct information get out there than'd be
given the wrong college or someone who the hell what MATC?
Speaker 5 (26:15):
It was a guy?
Speaker 2 (26:16):
It was guy from Utah?
Speaker 5 (26:18):
Was it? He's oh yeah, last name was guy.
Speaker 1 (26:21):
Yeah, Well, Teddy, we do have some questions.
Speaker 4 (26:25):
Should want to throw out anything else though with the prompts,
I mean.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
I'm done with it, really. I mean, I've given you props.
I've given you thought process on the whole Super Bowl.
I've given you as much side and totals. I can
give you a question away my friend.
Speaker 1 (26:40):
All right, Paul Blakeney from the other side of the
pond in Essex, England, has in. Yeah, yeah, he's in
the house. We got Titans CT in the house, questioned Teddy.
With the logic of Kansas City's defense focusing on Berkley.
Do you like his reception yards over fourteen.
Speaker 5 (26:58):
And a hook?
Speaker 2 (27:01):
No?
Speaker 1 (27:04):
Yeah, the receptions to it to a running back, that's
kind of tough. That's a tough handicap.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
So Pa Checko's one guy he might want to target
for receptions this week. That's one that he's done in
the Super Bowl in the past, he's been underutilized since
returning to health. Pa Checko's the guy I would look
at for receptions of the of the RBS. But one
thing that I'm really not looking to do is bet
(27:30):
a bunch of overs. Okay, everyone wants everything over. You
know this is going over. That's going over, This is
going Oh, it has to go over. And obviously Barkley
do that.
Speaker 5 (27:42):
I want catch.
Speaker 2 (27:45):
It's and it wouldn't shock me if he did. But
it's not a bet that caught my eye. It's not
a bet that I've made.
Speaker 1 (27:52):
Sports a vender askin does this game? Is it considered
emergency betting alert?
Speaker 6 (27:56):
Game?
Speaker 1 (27:57):
And any emergency betting alerts here in the proper market
to TC.
Speaker 2 (28:02):
So you know, from side to total standpoint there. I mean,
like I said when we talked last Monday, I'm like,
there's nothing doing with this line and it hasn't moved,
and there's no emergency betting alert for that, and you
know nothing. The emergency betting alerts are, in theory useful
when the lines are fresh. You know, we got virgin numbers.
(28:24):
We talk about Monday morning, when you can see this
line is likely to move, this one's likely to get hit,
we can talk about emergency betting alerts. I probably could
have talked about this when it came to the props
on Thursday night, but when they opened at Westgate. But
we're in a mature market right now, mature market for props,
mature market side and total. So the emergency betting alerts,
(28:49):
it's it's too late.
Speaker 5 (28:50):
There are none. The money's already moved.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
Teddy, you brought up going to the Westgate on Thursday night.
Are there any names you want to throw out there,
like good conversations, people you're excited to see.
Speaker 2 (29:05):
I'm trying to think who people would know. I mean,
I saw I saw Doug is Arian down. There's always
good to see Doug. You know, you remember talking from
his ESPN days. Patrick Everson's another guy who's out and
about all the time. To the reporting on the sports
betting industry.
Speaker 5 (29:21):
He was down.
Speaker 2 (29:21):
There was always good to see Pat. Uh. Surprising number
of odds makers around.
Speaker 5 (29:30):
You know, Rex Fiers is down. Rex Fires is always
a fun to talk to.
Speaker 2 (29:33):
I used to have him on my Serious Exempt show
as a guest, and you know, a former bookmaker and
certainly a guy who's got a lot of personality and
a lot of opinions.
Speaker 5 (29:44):
He's always fun to talk to.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
And then you know, there was a good handful of
why you know, the wise guys I'm not going to
talk about I'm not.
Speaker 5 (29:49):
Going to drop names, but you guys know who they are.
They're they're the famous sports betterers who are out there.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
Uh and either they or their representatives many of them
were in line at the super book, So I don't
know what are their names were there?
Speaker 1 (30:08):
Teddy, you brought up you brought up something in terms
of Westgate not changing what they're doing. And that's one
thing that's bothered me in the sports betting industry. If
I had to say one thing of the legalized sports
book that I'm not a fan of, it's you can
just tell that there will be a book that opens
(30:29):
up the line regardless of what sport it is, there's
an opening book, and granted they're not taking a lot
of money, and you can just go down the list.
I mean, college basketball is a great one to do
this with. Go look at the wager talk live on screen.
There will be a global book that opens up side
in total, all the way down, and then five minutes later,
two to three other books go right down and they're
(30:51):
within a half a point of almost all of them, Teddy.
So it tells me, you know, in some of these
risks rooms around, it's really like, it's not that tough
of a job.
Speaker 4 (31:04):
You just kind of go down and you copy off
of the first one. Almost. Man, I don't know if
you have any thoughts on that.
Speaker 1 (31:09):
It's not really a good thing in terms for the
sports betters in my opinion.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
No, I mean there's always been that sense of that.
But as long as you have books out there that
are willing to take opinions, that are willing to let's
give the Westgate credit. Here's a mature market. The Westgate
is like, well, we're not going to copy those numbers.
Let's put our numbers out. We think our numbers are better.
And that's a ballsy move. That's only a move you
can make when you don't have bean counters on your
(31:36):
ass every day, because sometimes you're right on this stuff
and sometimes you're wrong on this stuff, and when the
bean counters are giving you grief, you can't make moves
like that.
Speaker 5 (31:43):
So we'll give the Westgate credit for doing that.
Speaker 2 (31:49):
But it's not a scenario, Drew, in which one book
or any given book is controlling the markets, all right.
It is a diffuse marketplace out there, and we talk
about the industry leaders, whether it's DK, whether it's FanDuel,
whether it's Caesar's MGM.
Speaker 5 (32:07):
Those are the four biggest books. In between them, they're
like ninety percent of the market or close to it.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
Though none of those books are great for wise guy betters,
all right, not a one of them. Everybody gets limited
and if you bet successfully, you have a problem maintaining
relationship with those books. That's one of the advantages of
the betting exchanges of the smaller books when it comes
to a national footprint. But the books here in Vegas,
(32:36):
like Westgate, like Southpoint, like Circa, who will take a
bet and won't limit you. So I mean to me,
that's impactful in that sense. I don't know if I
answer your question or not.
Speaker 1 (32:51):
No, No, it's fine. Lee in the house saying thoughts
on over forty nine.
Speaker 4 (32:54):
Lee.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
Actually, in the beginning of the video we went over
both side and total. It kind of leads me into
the totals betting. I don't know that we went over
this one at least on this show yet, though, Teddy,
that's that's fun for me, is you know, first score
of the game, you know, five minutes, in six minutes,
in seven minutes, in any thought on that one, because
that's more the rip off your band aid, you know,
(33:17):
sweat it out right in the beginning of the Super Bowl.
I know a lot of people like that one.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
Yeah, it's certainly better than the over runner of the
national anthem.
Speaker 5 (33:25):
Which is always a sweat.
Speaker 2 (33:27):
But what's interesting at the West Gate and I like this,
Will either team score in the first three and a
half minutes of the game? Yes, plus four dollars? Will
either team score the first four and a half minutes
of the game? Yes plus two forty Will either team
score in the first five and a half minutes of
the game? Yes plus one thirty will either team score
(33:49):
in the first six and a half minutes of the game,
that's the minus one ten. Either way, we'll either team
score the first seven half or seven and a half
minutes of the game, yes, minus one seventy five. So
between three and a half at yes plus four dollars
and seven and a half minutes at minus one seventy five.
(34:10):
You know, if you want to know, you can bet
them all, you know.
Speaker 1 (34:16):
And Teddy, I believe that the city it's either the
five and a half or the six and a half
is on a six and one the last seven.
Speaker 4 (34:23):
Years to no score.
Speaker 1 (34:24):
It's been a you know, a slow start to Super Bowls,
if you will, even though.
Speaker 4 (34:30):
Some Super Bowls are high scoring, not in the beginning.
Speaker 5 (34:34):
So again, I have one of those on my client report. Okay, and.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
I'm with you on the concept of the uh the
game starting a little bit slow, and that's just the
way these games roll, you know. And look, someone could
take the opening kick and methodically move down the field
and punch in a score on the first drive game
and you can still cash on your well, there are
(35:05):
no bets as long as the drive is longer and slower.
You know, you don't even need a punt, you know,
you just need a longer, slower drive to open the game,
even if it's a scoring drive, and if you can
get five and a half, six and a half seven
a half minutes out of it, like both these teams
are capable of doing on any given day, you can
catch that over bet even if they score on the
(35:25):
first drive.
Speaker 1 (35:27):
Teddy, feel free to be short with this. Any novelty
props that you get involved with, do you have any
opinions on any of them?
Speaker 4 (35:35):
Halftime, Taylor Swift, anything like that.
Speaker 2 (35:39):
So back in the day, you spent a ton of
time working on this stuff. And I went back and
looked at my results for putting that time in, and
my results were.
Speaker 5 (35:49):
It wasn't worth it.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
So all the cross sports prop they're interesting to consider,
but it's a big handicap. And now you're adding to
the questions of your is not just one side is question?
Now both sides. You have to handicap you know what
I mean. You're not just handingahapping one player, You're handing
him me. Okay, I have handicapped this one player, and
I have to handicap whether the Red Wings are going
(36:12):
to get a goal in the first period or not,
you know, or that kind of stuff.
Speaker 5 (36:17):
It adds more uncertainty to it.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
So again fun recreational five bucks here, ten bucks there,
twenty bucks there, fifty bucks there. Fine, go have a
good time, but they're not bets that I've put a
lot of time into the Taylor Swift stuff. Again, what
will the announcer say stuff? I mean again, you might
be able to find edges. I'd rather put my time
(36:40):
in handinghapping basketball right now. That's where the money is
moving forward, not trying to figure out Taylor Swift. And
you know, we had a great weekend betting hoops this
past weekend, and then we'll see if we can keep
it rolling in the new week. But in a time
management issue, I'm not going to spend a shit ton
of time working on Taylor Swift props and how long
the national anthem's kind.
Speaker 5 (36:59):
Of or what color the gatorade is going to be.
Speaker 2 (37:02):
You know, there's more money and better best to be
made putting your time elsewhere.
Speaker 5 (37:06):
There really is.
Speaker 1 (37:08):
Yeah, and by this time a lot of them have
moved anyway, Like, for instance, we talked last week on
what the MVP will say first, who he will think first,
and we brought up god slash religion, and I brought
up the fact Patrick Mahomes he did it last time.
Speaker 4 (37:24):
He's like a pretty good you know with his.
Speaker 1 (37:27):
Speech, And sure enough, Teddy, I went and looked before
it's minus one ninety. Now, so the market moves on
this stuff. It's not rocket size, it's you.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
Know, significantly, yeah know, but yeah, I mean that's you know,
one of the issues of getting you know, why we
talk about this stuff early. Why my prop report was
out early. Why this side of total we're our early.
You know, if you're you could wait, and that's fine,
but you gotta be wait to be betting against these
moves that you know they're gonna come.
Speaker 1 (37:56):
Not with sure Teddy. Okay, we got one more question here.
Dano in the house saying, how about first turnover prop?
He likes the fumble. Have you ever been involved with
that interception, fumble, anything like that for the first turnover?
Speaker 4 (38:11):
That could be an exciting one.
Speaker 2 (38:13):
So first turnover, and again I read out some turnover
numbers before the total turnovers under two and azer under
two and a half, interception one and a half, the
unders minus one forty, fumble one and a half, the
under minus two to seventy. This is the issue with
fumble all right, you can fumble, but the other team
(38:34):
has to recover it. That's the key, and that's why
you know the chance of a fumble and interception aren't
dramatically different. There are more interceptions in fumbles, but not
way more, but recovered fumbles. There are way more interceptions
than recovered fumbles. And that's why you're seeing the prices
where it is. So again, to me, that's a fairly
(38:56):
random prop. I like total turnovers under, and I wouldn't
argue with under interceptions or under fumbles. So I'm about again.
You're looking for the plus price. Everyone's looking for the
plus price. Look for some minus prices.
Speaker 4 (39:15):
Teddy, should we wait for next week for NFL draft futures? Yeah,
first pick over, Okay, we will be that.
Speaker 2 (39:23):
I know there's been a lot of movement on that
of late with what the kid out of Penn State
taking a bunch of money. But next week we'll talk
a little bit about NFL draft futures. We'll talk about
NFL or you know, we'll tell a little bit about
the NFL draft, we'll talk about futures for next season.
I'll be exciting to see if we have win totals.
Posted by next Monday. I doubt we will, but if
(39:43):
we If we do, we'll run through them. We'll talk
about the future book odds, We'll go through and graine
some of these props. The show after super Bowl Sunday,
the Monday show Afterable Sunday. It's a fun show. So
I encourage you to come back again next week for
one last edition of the Way You Talk NFL Opening
Line Report before the season is through, because yeah, going
(40:06):
through some of these prop results and some of the
crazy shit that happened, it's always a lot of fun
today after and it gives us a chance to put
a bow on the season and a bow on the
playoffs and.
Speaker 5 (40:16):
Take a look ahead. So it's a show again.
Speaker 2 (40:18):
I mean, so the you know the TV show, the
Beat the Odds TV show that I do.
Speaker 5 (40:23):
This is the last week. You know, they're done for
the Way You Talk beat on it.
Speaker 2 (40:28):
After this week, you know, nothing till there's no post
super Bowl until the March badness.
Speaker 5 (40:33):
I like that post super Bowl show. I think it helps.
Speaker 2 (40:36):
It helps me, It helps the focus and as I talk,
helps me start thinking about it. Some of the teams
I want to be focusing on in the off season.
So I encourage you to check back and hang out
with us again next Monday, because this Monday, like always,
is fun and hopefully.
Speaker 4 (40:52):
Get you ready for the off season.
Speaker 1 (40:54):
Of course, Teddy has the season win Total report coming
out in the off season as well.
Speaker 4 (40:59):
I'm sure this key you up for that.
Speaker 1 (41:01):
And yeah, guys will be back next Monday, ten am
Pacific time, so come back and join us. Also comment
below if you're watching on replay, feel free to fire
away any questions.
Speaker 4 (41:10):
We'll answer them on next week's show. What you're looking
to bet as well?
Speaker 1 (41:13):
Any props side total all welcome in the comments below.
TC and myself will be in there throughout the week
chiming in. But Teddy throw it back over to you man.
Great show as always. I think you got a five
percent big ticket up here at wagertalk dot com, I believe,
and anything else you want to throw out before we
shut it down.
Speaker 2 (41:34):
Yeah, let me give you guys some boss up promo codes.
I mean, obviously, I love doing the show, I love
providing information for you guys each and every day, each
and every week.
Speaker 5 (41:45):
But I got a.
Speaker 2 (41:48):
Service man, if you're interested. We have this great problem
right now. The Super Bowl is Super Bowl all Access.
If you buy today, you get everything before the Super
Bowl as well. But it's ninety nine bucks up month
for a twelve you know, for through every play, every
day and every sport, including all five percents through next
year's Super Bowl. Check it out WT dot buzz backslash
(42:10):
TC no promo code needia. Do you use that for me?
You can use it for Drew. You can use that
for any of the cappers at wadotalk dot com. We've
also got a sports specific promo. You Sport fifty at
checkout promo code sport five. Oh sport fifty at checkout
and take fifty bucks off a thirty day NBA All
(42:31):
Access pass. NBA is starting to click. Man, it took
a while this year before it got going, but I'm
real comfortable with where we're at right now. And as
you mentioned, Drew, I do have a single five percent
big ticket play available in college Hoops for Monday Night
for tonight. Get that right now again, WT dot buzz
backslash TC better than sixty percent with my College Hoops
(42:54):
five percent big tickets since twenty twenty two, long term
success and on a seventy percent five percent pick ticket
run across sports since last September. So check it out
right now on my page buzz x last TC if
you want to get on board, and if not, thank
you for watching. Appreciate the comments, Appreciate the follows, Appreciate
the likes very very much. There's no I'm gonna sell
(43:16):
if you want to get it. If you don't, that's fine.
I'm not mad at you. It's okay. I know there
are some people that want to get on board with
a handicap or other people don't.
Speaker 5 (43:23):
That's okay. But if you want to partner up, good
time to do so right now.
Speaker 2 (43:28):
Myself or Drew Martin a Redwagotalk dot com.
Speaker 1 (43:33):
Well said Teddy Bit Monday going tonight in college hoops.
Check it out Teddy coverswager Talk dot Com. I am
Drew Martin. Guys, that's going to do it for the show.
We will be back next week. Super Bowl recap getting
you ready for the offseason, NFL Draft talk as well
for Teddy Covers, I Drew Martin comment below smash that
like button, enjoy the Super Bowl.
Speaker 4 (43:51):
Cash those tickets guys. Thanks for tuning in.
Speaker 5 (44:04):
Constant different.
Speaker 6 (44:30):
To the bunting doesn't busts the project doesn't
Speaker 2 (45:18):
Yeah,
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