Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Week fourteen in the NFL was just chaos. Yeah, seriously,
if you blinked, you missed something profoundly weird.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Uttered chaos.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
I mean, we had what four non first round rookie
quarterbacks all taking wingingful snaps. It just shows you how
fast the whole landscape.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
Is changing, oh completely, and you know, beyond just the players,
the games themselves were just bizarre. We had three interceptions
thrown behind the line of scrimmage.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Two in the same game, right, the Bengals Bills game exactly.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
But the play that tells you the fundamental laws of
football gravity are currently suspended. That had to be the
Jalen Hurt situation.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
Ah. Yes, the masterpiece of self sabotage. You almost had
to watch it a few times to even believe what
you were seeing.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
It was a statistical anomaly wrapped in a terrible decision.
I mean, Elias Sportsbureau said it was the first time
in their database going all the way back to nineteen
seventy eight, the first time for what that The same
player had two turnovers on the very same down. He
throws a pick, the defender fumbles it, hurts, recovers it,
and then he fumbles it right back.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
It was just the perfect picture of a team pressing
when they absolutely shouldn't, right.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
And when you see anomalies like that, the immediate temptation
is to overreact, to say, you know, the league is broken,
or that one team is just hopelessly lost.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
And that's exactly what we are here to fight. Our
mission is to take the deepest of dives into the
source material you provided us to measure the true structural
brokenness of the league's most dominant dynasty, the Chiefs, and
then on the flip side, to celebrate the quiet, legitimate
rise of a real AF contender in the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
We have to start with the grim reality in Kansas City.
The numbers from Sunday night are just shocking. Patrick Mahomes
had I mean, it might be the single worst performance
of his entire career.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
That's a huge statement.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Well, he posted a minus zero point five to four
EPA per dropback, which basically means every single time he
dropped back to pass, he was actively hurting his team's.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Chance to score.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
And the passer rating was They're.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Horrific nineteen point eight. Those are just numbers you do
not associate with.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
Yeah, the cost is immediate. This is a team that's
been what's the phrase, irritatingly immortal for years, but now
their playoff chance according to FBI, has just plummeted.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Down to sixteen point four percent. For anyone who doesn't
track this daily, FPI is ESPN's Football Power Index, so
it's rating their strength, not just their record.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
It really feels like a true inflection point. Okay, so
let's unpack this. If the face of the franchise is
still there, how do you even begin to fix an
offense that looks so compromised?
Speaker 3 (02:33):
Okay, so first we need a little perspective to avoid,
you know, total panic. They are actually a better team
than their record says they are. Oh so they're one
in six and one score games this year. That is
just terrible luck. But they still rank seventh and DVOA
that's a key efficiency metric and second in FPI.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
So they're high quality but just snake bit precisely.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
But that one in six record is the mirror image
of their twenty twenty four season. Last year, they went
eleven to zero in those same game.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
So that look was masking some real festering problems.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Exactly problems that are now impossible to ignore, and if
you really boil it down, the two biggest issues are
scheme predictability and a lack of receiver diversification.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
Let's start with the scheme. The first issue seems to
be a totally toothless running game. We all know Andy
Reid loves to throw. The Chiefs have been first or
second and pass rate over expectation every year since twenty eighteen.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
And a big part of that is their reliance on RPOs,
the run pass options. Mahomes is leaning so heavily into
those ultra quick throws, the ones under one point five seconds.
He has seventy seven of them this season.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Seventy seven, and the next closest QB is.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Only forty nine. It's massive dap okay.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
So here's the real insight. Then their biggest cheat code,
the RPO is now creating a weakness that defenses have
just totally figured out.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
That's it.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
To run that many RPOs, you have to be in
predictable shotgun formations. A full sixty two point four percent
of their running back carries are coming from the gun.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
And that's the collateral damage, isn't it. It limits your
blocking diversity. Receivers aren't digging out safeties, you can't run
real play action.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
From under center, and the run scheme becomes incredibly simple
to diagnose. The numbers just confirm how little respect defenses
have for it.
Speaker 1 (04:12):
Okay, so give us the data. How bad is it really?
Speaker 3 (04:15):
Well? To put it simply, they have no explosive potential.
The twenty twenty five Chiefs have the lowest explosive rush
rate on RB carries of any team since the year
two thousand. It's just two point six percent.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
They never break off big runs, never.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
And they average three point six yards per run from
the shotgun. That's thirtieth in the league. And here's the
most damning stat They average just one point seven yards
before contact per.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Rush one point seven, So defenders are basically meeting the
running back in the backfield.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
Every single time. That running game earns zero defensive respect,
which means when Mahomes drops back, defenses can just focus entirely.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
On the pass. So how do you fix that without
changing Andy Reid's core DNA root. One has to be
adopting a schematic change, right, something like what the Bills.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
Of That's the answer. The Bills were a shotgun team.
But this year eighty three point four percent of their
RB runs have come from under center. That's a league
leading number.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
It requires new ideas, though, maybe hiring someone from outside
the Reid coaching tree.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
And it demands investment in different types of players. You
need real traditional run blockers, tight ends, fullbacks like what
the Bills have in Kincaid and knocks instead of just
drafting another pass catching back like Clyde Edwards Hilaire.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
Okay, so that's issue one, the system that brings us
to issue two, the unbalanced receiver room. This one feels
more like a personnel failure.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Oh, for sure, they've spent a massive amount of draft capital,
a first unworthy two seconds on More and Rice trades
for Tony and Brown, but they are just talent deficient
when it comes to different skill sets.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
Rashie Rice is a hit, though, we have to give him.
Speaker 2 (05:46):
That absolutely a bright spot.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
His eight point one yards after catch per reception leads
all receivers, but he's fundamentally an underneath guy. He's not
a true downfield threat.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
And since they traded Tyreek Hill, it feels like they've
just been chasing speed Worthy More Tony Brown. They're all
sub six foot, sub two hundred pounds. It's a track team.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
It's like they forgot the difference between a great football
player and a guy who runs a fast forty. And
that's the core problem physical defenses. We saw it with
the Texans, the Eagles, the Bills. They just weight class them.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
They get physically dominated on the perimeter exactly.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
And Mahomes is trying to compensate. He's throwing deeper this year,
his highest air yards per attempt since twenty twenty. But
the completion percentage downfield is only thirty six point four percent.
It's nowhere near the forty three point two percent he
had in the Tyreek Hill era.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
So Root two for the fix is simple. Just diversify.
Get a bully like a John Jennings, Sign a reliable
possession receiver like Jacoby Myers or Mike Evans or and this.
Speaker 3 (06:44):
Is the ultimate desperation move. You use the incredible margin
of error that Mahomes gives you and you do something
drastic like what you trade two first round picks for
Justin Jefferson. There is no team for whom that trade
is more justifiable. If you have the best quarterback of
his era, you make that aggressive move to get an
elite star back in the building.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
Wait, wait, I have to challenge that if they trade
two firsts for Jefferson, are they just doubling down on
the personnel failure they just made and relying on one
superstar to mask the systemic RPO issue we just laid out.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
That is a fantastic point. It is a calculated risk.
But here's the defense for it. If your team's DNA
is high volume passing, the only way to fix a
total evaluation failure is to buy the best talent on
the market. Jefferson is so dominant that he automatically forces
defenses into two deep safety looks, which counterintuitively might actually
(07:36):
open up the running game by forcing lighter boxes.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
So you're using elite star power to solve a structural
weakness in the scheme.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
It's only possible when you have him homes. It's a
band aid, for sure, but a very very effective and
very expensive one.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Fascinating. So we've seen the blueprint for how a dynasty
can start to decay. But if the Chiefs show what
happens when you rely on old habits, let's look at
the team that has built the exact opposite foundation the
Jacksonville Jaguars.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
Yeah, what's so interesting here is that while everyone is
looking at the Texans, and they deserve credit for sure,
the Jaguars are the team that is quietly rounding into form.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
They're five and one, since they're week eight, by.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Let's talk metrics for that stretch. How good have they
actually been over.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
That five and one stretch? The offense is sixth and
success rate and fifth in points per drive. That's top tier.
And the defense is right there with them, seventh in
points per drive allowed and seventh in EPA per play.
They're just good, consistently good.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
And the offensive skeleton key seems to have bing Jacobe Myers.
That mid season trade was just the gift that keeps
on giving.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Absolutely, Myers has brought this unbelievable consistency since he got there.
Sixty seven points seven percent of his targets have turned
into successful plays. That leads all wide receivers.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
So what's the mechanical result of bringing in a guy
like that? How does it change things?
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Well, that reliability allows their coach Liam Cohen to totally
adjust the offensive flow. Meyers handles what you could call
the mundane responsibilities the screens the jet sweeps the reliable
third down catches.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
Which in turn frees up their young star Brian Thomas Junior,
to get back to what he.
Speaker 3 (09:08):
Does best exactly. He gets to be the field stretcher again.
In just his second game with Myers, Thomas had twenty
five point five air yards per target.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
He can go back to just running deep.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
And this all connects directly back to Trevor Lawrence. Yeah,
the kid gloves are officially off.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
They're off.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
They've dramatically cut down on screens from about four point
seven per game down to one point seven, and Lawrence
is just letting it rip. Since the bye, forty four
point six percent of his throws are going ten plus
yards downfield. That's the highest rate for any QB in
that span.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
So the coaching staff isn't just throwing out the playbook.
They're using things like motion and condensed formations to create
easier windows for him and letting his accuracy shine.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
He is.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
And you connect that to the defense, where Anthony Campanili
is generating elite pressure seventh in the league since Week ten.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
And what's remarkable is how.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
They're doing it just by blissing everyone.
Speaker 3 (09:57):
No, they're rotating in lesser known guys, undrafted free agent
like Danny Strego, a career practice squad player like Matt Dickerson.
They're getting pressure with creativity and depth.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
They're using a lot of simulated pressures. I've noticed a.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Ton they look like they're blitzing, but they're dropping linemen
into coverage and rushing guys from depth. That foundational identity
scheme over star power is what makes them so dangerous.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
They do have a major heat check coming up against
the Broncos in Denver, which will tell us a lot,
but it sounds like in a surprisingly down AFC, the
Jaguars are just fundamentally built the right way. Okay, let's
hit some quick insights from week fourteen. We're calling this
next Ben Stats, and since we talked about the Chiefs
awful rushing game, let's look at the Rams to see
(10:42):
what elite rushing dominance looks like.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
The RAMS rushing success rate is fifty two point three percent.
If that holds, it would be the second best mark
since the year two thousand, meaning.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
More than half the time they run the ball, they're
staying on schedule or getting a first down.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Right, and the duo of Karl Williams and Blake Korum.
Is great, but it's really about the line. They rank
first in adjusted lineyards, a metric that isolates the o
lines contribution.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
And who did they replace at the top spot.
Speaker 3 (11:07):
You guessed it, the legendary twenty eighteen Rams.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
This isn't just good.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
This makes the Rams you could argue, the only obvious
Super Bowl caliber team in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
Right now, all right, Moving to Buffalo, we saw a
huge identity shift from Josh Allen. He used play action
on fifty two point eight percent of his dropbacks against
the Bengals.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
That's massive, fourth highest rate of his career. But here's
the weird part. He threw incredibly shallow, only four point
six air yards per attempt.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Usually play action means deep shots, So why the change.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
It seems like they're now using a heavy run and
play action look to set up quick underneath throws, swings, crossers.
It's a way to reduce those high risk deep balls
and protect the ball. It's a major philosophical shift.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
Meanwhile, the Dolphins finally broke the ice.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
Literally tuat Tago Bay Loa got his first NFL win
when the temperature was under forty five degrees they won
in thirty seven degree weather.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
The reason is clear. It can expect to that idea
of foundation. They finally have a running game.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
A reliable, physical running game.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
They've rushed for over one hundred and sixty yards and
four straight games for the first time since nineteen seventy seven.
That was the piece that was always missing in their
previous cold weather losses.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
Finally, let's circle back to Jalen Hurts. That five turnover
game highlights a really dangerous regression.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
It really does.
Speaker 3 (12:22):
The Eagles became elite in mid twenty twenty four when
they shifted their identity to protect the.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
Ball at all costs.
Speaker 3 (12:29):
In the fifteen games after that change, Hurts had only
four giveaways.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
In the last two losses alone.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
He's had seven.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
The protection identity has just completely broken down. When he's
asked to make those tight window throws over the middle,
his ability to avoid negative plays just disappears.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
So what does this all mean for you, the learner?
We've really looked at two teams on opposite ends of
the AFC spectrum.
Speaker 3 (12:50):
On one side, you have the best quarterback of his
era in Kansas City, who is trying to mask his
team's in amility to build a modern diversified offense.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
And on the other you have the Jaguars, who are
leveraging consistent players and smart coaching adjustments to maximize their
own star quarterback they feel built for sustained success.
Speaker 3 (13:08):
You now have the blueprints for understanding which teams are
built for the long haul by adapting your foundation, and
which are just defying gravity or suffering the consequences when
that luck finally runs.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
Out, And that leads us to our final provocative thought feedom.
All over, we've established that the Chiefs need to move
away from their over reliance on RPOs and their single
minded pursuit of speed. But given how successful Andy Reid's
philosophy has been for decades, what's actually harder for a
top tier organization like that to admit a tactical failure
and how you design your system or a personnel evaluation
(13:42):
failure and how you build your roster
Week fourteen in the NFL was just chaos. Yeah, seriously,
if you blinked, you missed something profoundly weird.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Uttered chaos.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
I mean, we had what four non first round rookie
quarterbacks all taking wingingful snaps. It just shows you how
fast the whole landscape.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
Is changing, oh completely, and you know, beyond just the players,
the games themselves were just bizarre. We had three interceptions
thrown behind the line of scrimmage.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Two in the same game, right, the Bengals Bills game exactly.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
But the play that tells you the fundamental laws of
football gravity are currently suspended. That had to be the
Jalen Hurt situation.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
Ah. Yes, the masterpiece of self sabotage. You almost had
to watch it a few times to even believe what
you were seeing.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
It was a statistical anomaly wrapped in a terrible decision.
I mean, Elias Sportsbureau said it was the first time
in their database going all the way back to nineteen
seventy eight, the first time for what that The same
player had two turnovers on the very same down. He
throws a pick, the defender fumbles it, hurts, recovers it,
and then he fumbles it right back.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
It was just the perfect picture of a team pressing
when they absolutely shouldn't, right.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
And when you see anomalies like that, the immediate temptation
is to overreact, to say, you know, the league is broken,
or that one team is just hopelessly lost.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
And that's exactly what we are here to fight. Our
mission is to take the deepest of dives into the
source material you provided us to measure the true structural
brokenness of the league's most dominant dynasty, the Chiefs, and
then on the flip side, to celebrate the quiet, legitimate
rise of a real AF contender in the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
We have to start with the grim reality in Kansas City.
The numbers from Sunday night are just shocking. Patrick Mahomes
had I mean, it might be the single worst performance
of his entire career.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
That's a huge statement.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Well, he posted a minus zero point five to four
EPA per dropback, which basically means every single time he
dropped back to pass, he was actively hurting his team's.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Chance to score.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
And the passer rating was They're.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Horrific nineteen point eight. Those are just numbers you do
not associate with.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
Yeah, the cost is immediate. This is a team that's
been what's the phrase, irritatingly immortal for years, but now
their playoff chance according to FBI, has just plummeted.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Down to sixteen point four percent. For anyone who doesn't
track this daily, FPI is ESPN's Football Power Index, so
it's rating their strength, not just their record.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
It really feels like a true inflection point. Okay, so
let's unpack this. If the face of the franchise is
still there, how do you even begin to fix an
offense that looks so compromised?
Speaker 3 (02:33):
Okay, so first we need a little perspective to avoid,
you know, total panic. They are actually a better team
than their record says they are. Oh so they're one
in six and one score games this year. That is
just terrible luck. But they still rank seventh and DVOA
that's a key efficiency metric and second in FPI.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
So they're high quality but just snake bit precisely.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
But that one in six record is the mirror image
of their twenty twenty four season. Last year, they went
eleven to zero in those same game.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
So that look was masking some real festering problems.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Exactly problems that are now impossible to ignore, and if
you really boil it down, the two biggest issues are
scheme predictability and a lack of receiver diversification.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
Let's start with the scheme. The first issue seems to
be a totally toothless running game. We all know Andy
Reid loves to throw. The Chiefs have been first or
second and pass rate over expectation every year since twenty eighteen.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
And a big part of that is their reliance on RPOs,
the run pass options. Mahomes is leaning so heavily into
those ultra quick throws, the ones under one point five seconds.
He has seventy seven of them this season.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Seventy seven, and the next closest QB is.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Only forty nine. It's massive dap okay.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
So here's the real insight. Then their biggest cheat code,
the RPO is now creating a weakness that defenses have
just totally figured out.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
That's it.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
To run that many RPOs, you have to be in
predictable shotgun formations. A full sixty two point four percent
of their running back carries are coming from the gun.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
And that's the collateral damage, isn't it. It limits your
blocking diversity. Receivers aren't digging out safeties, you can't run
real play action.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
From under center, and the run scheme becomes incredibly simple
to diagnose. The numbers just confirm how little respect defenses
have for it.
Speaker 1 (04:12):
Okay, so give us the data. How bad is it really?
Speaker 3 (04:15):
Well? To put it simply, they have no explosive potential.
The twenty twenty five Chiefs have the lowest explosive rush
rate on RB carries of any team since the year
two thousand. It's just two point six percent.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
They never break off big runs, never.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
And they average three point six yards per run from
the shotgun. That's thirtieth in the league. And here's the
most damning stat They average just one point seven yards
before contact per.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Rush one point seven, So defenders are basically meeting the
running back in the backfield.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
Every single time. That running game earns zero defensive respect,
which means when Mahomes drops back, defenses can just focus entirely.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
On the pass. So how do you fix that without
changing Andy Reid's core DNA root. One has to be
adopting a schematic change, right, something like what the Bills.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
Of That's the answer. The Bills were a shotgun team.
But this year eighty three point four percent of their
RB runs have come from under center. That's a league
leading number.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
It requires new ideas, though, maybe hiring someone from outside
the Reid coaching tree.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
And it demands investment in different types of players. You
need real traditional run blockers, tight ends, fullbacks like what
the Bills have in Kincaid and knocks instead of just
drafting another pass catching back like Clyde Edwards Hilaire.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
Okay, so that's issue one, the system that brings us
to issue two, the unbalanced receiver room. This one feels
more like a personnel failure.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Oh, for sure, they've spent a massive amount of draft capital,
a first unworthy two seconds on More and Rice trades
for Tony and Brown, but they are just talent deficient
when it comes to different skill sets.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
Rashie Rice is a hit, though, we have to give him.
Speaker 2 (05:46):
That absolutely a bright spot.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
His eight point one yards after catch per reception leads
all receivers, but he's fundamentally an underneath guy. He's not
a true downfield threat.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
And since they traded Tyreek Hill, it feels like they've
just been chasing speed Worthy More Tony Brown. They're all
sub six foot, sub two hundred pounds. It's a track team.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
It's like they forgot the difference between a great football
player and a guy who runs a fast forty. And
that's the core problem physical defenses. We saw it with
the Texans, the Eagles, the Bills. They just weight class them.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
They get physically dominated on the perimeter exactly.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
And Mahomes is trying to compensate. He's throwing deeper this year,
his highest air yards per attempt since twenty twenty. But
the completion percentage downfield is only thirty six point four percent.
It's nowhere near the forty three point two percent he
had in the Tyreek Hill era.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
So Root two for the fix is simple. Just diversify.
Get a bully like a John Jennings, Sign a reliable
possession receiver like Jacoby Myers or Mike Evans or and this.
Speaker 3 (06:44):
Is the ultimate desperation move. You use the incredible margin
of error that Mahomes gives you and you do something
drastic like what you trade two first round picks for
Justin Jefferson. There is no team for whom that trade
is more justifiable. If you have the best quarterback of
his era, you make that aggressive move to get an
elite star back in the building.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
Wait, wait, I have to challenge that if they trade
two firsts for Jefferson, are they just doubling down on
the personnel failure they just made and relying on one
superstar to mask the systemic RPO issue we just laid out.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
That is a fantastic point. It is a calculated risk.
But here's the defense for it. If your team's DNA
is high volume passing, the only way to fix a
total evaluation failure is to buy the best talent on
the market. Jefferson is so dominant that he automatically forces
defenses into two deep safety looks, which counterintuitively might actually
(07:36):
open up the running game by forcing lighter boxes.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
So you're using elite star power to solve a structural
weakness in the scheme.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
It's only possible when you have him homes. It's a
band aid, for sure, but a very very effective and
very expensive one.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Fascinating. So we've seen the blueprint for how a dynasty
can start to decay. But if the Chiefs show what
happens when you rely on old habits, let's look at
the team that has built the exact opposite foundation the
Jacksonville Jaguars.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
Yeah, what's so interesting here is that while everyone is
looking at the Texans, and they deserve credit for sure,
the Jaguars are the team that is quietly rounding into form.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
They're five and one, since they're week eight, by.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Let's talk metrics for that stretch. How good have they
actually been over.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
That five and one stretch? The offense is sixth and
success rate and fifth in points per drive. That's top tier.
And the defense is right there with them, seventh in
points per drive allowed and seventh in EPA per play.
They're just good, consistently good.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
And the offensive skeleton key seems to have bing Jacobe Myers.
That mid season trade was just the gift that keeps
on giving.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Absolutely, Myers has brought this unbelievable consistency since he got there.
Sixty seven points seven percent of his targets have turned
into successful plays. That leads all wide receivers.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
So what's the mechanical result of bringing in a guy
like that? How does it change things?
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Well, that reliability allows their coach Liam Cohen to totally
adjust the offensive flow. Meyers handles what you could call
the mundane responsibilities the screens the jet sweeps the reliable
third down catches.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
Which in turn frees up their young star Brian Thomas Junior,
to get back to what he.
Speaker 3 (09:08):
Does best exactly. He gets to be the field stretcher again.
In just his second game with Myers, Thomas had twenty
five point five air yards per target.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
He can go back to just running deep.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
And this all connects directly back to Trevor Lawrence. Yeah,
the kid gloves are officially off.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
They're off.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
They've dramatically cut down on screens from about four point
seven per game down to one point seven, and Lawrence
is just letting it rip. Since the bye, forty four
point six percent of his throws are going ten plus
yards downfield. That's the highest rate for any QB in
that span.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
So the coaching staff isn't just throwing out the playbook.
They're using things like motion and condensed formations to create
easier windows for him and letting his accuracy shine.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
He is.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
And you connect that to the defense, where Anthony Campanili
is generating elite pressure seventh in the league since Week ten.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
And what's remarkable is how.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
They're doing it just by blissing everyone.
Speaker 3 (09:57):
No, they're rotating in lesser known guys, undrafted free agent
like Danny Strego, a career practice squad player like Matt Dickerson.
They're getting pressure with creativity and depth.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
They're using a lot of simulated pressures. I've noticed a.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Ton they look like they're blitzing, but they're dropping linemen
into coverage and rushing guys from depth. That foundational identity
scheme over star power is what makes them so dangerous.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
They do have a major heat check coming up against
the Broncos in Denver, which will tell us a lot,
but it sounds like in a surprisingly down AFC, the
Jaguars are just fundamentally built the right way. Okay, let's
hit some quick insights from week fourteen. We're calling this
next Ben Stats, and since we talked about the Chiefs
awful rushing game, let's look at the Rams to see
(10:42):
what elite rushing dominance looks like.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
The RAMS rushing success rate is fifty two point three percent.
If that holds, it would be the second best mark
since the year two thousand, meaning.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
More than half the time they run the ball, they're
staying on schedule or getting a first down.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Right, and the duo of Karl Williams and Blake Korum.
Is great, but it's really about the line. They rank
first in adjusted lineyards, a metric that isolates the o
lines contribution.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
And who did they replace at the top spot.
Speaker 3 (11:07):
You guessed it, the legendary twenty eighteen Rams.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
This isn't just good.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
This makes the Rams you could argue, the only obvious
Super Bowl caliber team in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
Right now, all right, Moving to Buffalo, we saw a
huge identity shift from Josh Allen. He used play action
on fifty two point eight percent of his dropbacks against
the Bengals.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
That's massive, fourth highest rate of his career. But here's
the weird part. He threw incredibly shallow, only four point
six air yards per attempt.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Usually play action means deep shots, So why the change.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
It seems like they're now using a heavy run and
play action look to set up quick underneath throws, swings, crossers.
It's a way to reduce those high risk deep balls
and protect the ball. It's a major philosophical shift.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
Meanwhile, the Dolphins finally broke the ice.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
Literally tuat Tago Bay Loa got his first NFL win
when the temperature was under forty five degrees they won
in thirty seven degree weather.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
The reason is clear. It can expect to that idea
of foundation. They finally have a running game.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
A reliable, physical running game.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
They've rushed for over one hundred and sixty yards and
four straight games for the first time since nineteen seventy seven.
That was the piece that was always missing in their
previous cold weather losses.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
Finally, let's circle back to Jalen Hurts. That five turnover
game highlights a really dangerous regression.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
It really does.
Speaker 3 (12:22):
The Eagles became elite in mid twenty twenty four when
they shifted their identity to protect the.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
Ball at all costs.
Speaker 3 (12:29):
In the fifteen games after that change, Hurts had only
four giveaways.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
In the last two losses alone.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
He's had seven.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
The protection identity has just completely broken down. When he's
asked to make those tight window throws over the middle,
his ability to avoid negative plays just disappears.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
So what does this all mean for you, the learner?
We've really looked at two teams on opposite ends of
the AFC spectrum.
Speaker 3 (12:50):
On one side, you have the best quarterback of his
era in Kansas City, who is trying to mask his
team's in amility to build a modern diversified offense.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
And on the other you have the Jaguars, who are
leveraging consistent players and smart coaching adjustments to maximize their
own star quarterback they feel built for sustained success.
Speaker 3 (13:08):
You now have the blueprints for understanding which teams are
built for the long haul by adapting your foundation, and
which are just defying gravity or suffering the consequences when
that luck finally runs.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
Out, And that leads us to our final provocative thought feedom.
All over, we've established that the Chiefs need to move
away from their over reliance on RPOs and their single
minded pursuit of speed. But given how successful Andy Reid's
philosophy has been for decades, what's actually harder for a
top tier organization like that to admit a tactical failure
and how you design your system or a personnel evaluation
(13:42):
failure and how you build your roster
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