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December 10, 2025 • 10 mins
49ers' Push for NFC's No. 1 Seed
Mark as Played
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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Okay, let's just jump right into this. We're doing a
deep dive today on the San Francisco forty nine ers.
Specifically they're very narrow path to maybe just maybe grabbing
the NFC's number one seed, right.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
And this is all coming out of their late week
fourteen by.

Speaker 1 (00:18):
Yeah, and for this we're working from analysis that's what
from December tenth, twenty twenty five. So we have ESPN
data team interviews.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
The whole picture, the perfect case study, scenario planning. The
context is just so dramatic. Oh, so, well, you've got
this forty nine ers team, you're sitting at nine to four,
But this is not the same team that started the season.
They've had so much attrition, key injuries. I mean we're
talking about pillars.

Speaker 1 (00:42):
Of the team like Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. I
mean those aren't just injuries. Those are roster shaping losses exactly. Yea.

Speaker 2 (00:47):
And yet somehow there's still mathematically in the hunt for
that pop spot.

Speaker 1 (00:52):
So that really frames the big question for you listening
at home.

Speaker 2 (00:56):
Yeah, how viable is this really for a team that's
dealing with so much ad To get that number one seed,
they have to win out and get some very specific help.

Speaker 1 (01:04):
Okay, so let's start with the bye week itself, a
week fourteen bye. That's so late, it's the latest you
can possibly get.

Speaker 2 (01:12):
It's almost unheard of.

Speaker 1 (01:13):
And normally you'd think, Okay, a team is on a
three game winning streak, the last thing you want is
to take a week off and kill that momentum.

Speaker 2 (01:22):
But that's what's so fascinating here. The data actually shows
the opposite happen.

Speaker 1 (01:27):
What they didn't lose momentum.

Speaker 2 (01:28):
They did better than that. They actually gained ground. They
jumped from the number seven seed to the number six
seed while they were on vacation, just.

Speaker 1 (01:35):
Because the teams around them stumbled.

Speaker 2 (01:37):
Exactly, they got a competitive advantage by doing absolutely nothing.
It just shows you the chaos and the NFC right now.

Speaker 1 (01:43):
And you have to assume the coaching staff just seized
on that.

Speaker 2 (01:47):
Oh completely. When the team got back, Kyle Shanahan's message
was apparently really powerful. He told them it's the first
day of school again.

Speaker 1 (01:55):
I like that.

Speaker 2 (01:56):
Yeah. His whole point was the need to lock in
right now because that by gave them a kind of
a fresh start for these golden opportunities ahead.

Speaker 1 (02:05):
So it's not about maintaining something old, it's about starting
something new. It's manufactured urgency.

Speaker 2 (02:11):
It's just smart coaching. He knows they're banged up. Pure
physical momentum is probably impossible this late in the year,
so he resets the mental clock. It's a four game
sprint to the finish.

Speaker 1 (02:23):
And the players are definitely eyeing the prize. This isn't
just about getting another.

Speaker 2 (02:26):
Week off, absolutely not. The stakes here are they're massive.
The number one seed means you could play every single
postseason game.

Speaker 1 (02:35):
At home, every single one, including the.

Speaker 2 (02:37):
Super Bowl, right there at Levi Stadium. That's an enormous.

Speaker 1 (02:41):
Advantage and you can really hear that motivation in the
player quotes, like the tackle mckivtz. He put it pretty bluntly.

Speaker 2 (02:47):
What did he say?

Speaker 1 (02:48):
He just said, and if we do another bye week
in four wigs, sounds pretty awesome. NH. Yeah, the immediate benefit, right,
But then you have a guy like Sean Jennings, the receiver,
and he kind of gets at the bigger picture. He
called it super exciting because quote, it's all right there
in front of us.

Speaker 2 (03:04):
And that's the key, that feeling of controlling your own destiny,
at least part of it. That's a powerful thing in December.

Speaker 1 (03:11):
But okay, to control that destiny, they have to get
through a really, really tough schedule. Let's lay out these
last four games for everyone, all right.

Speaker 2 (03:19):
So up first, they get a bit of a soft
landing this Sunday. It's against the Tennessee Titans, who are
two and eleven. A good warm up and that's for
better than that. Then they travel to Indianapolis and the
Colts just lost their starting quarterback to a torn achilles
So another game you'd expect them to win.

Speaker 1 (03:35):
Okay, So those first two seem manageable, but then it
gets serious.

Speaker 2 (03:39):
It ramps up fast. Yeah. Week seventeen is a Sunday
night showdown at home against the Chicago.

Speaker 1 (03:44):
Bears, who are also nine and four, also.

Speaker 2 (03:46):
Nine to four and fighting for their own playoff lives.
And the finale, the season finale, is at home against
maybe their biggest rival, the Seattle Seahawks, who are currently
ten and three. Wow.

Speaker 1 (03:58):
So winning all four of those is it's a huge task,
but it's mandatory, it is.

Speaker 2 (04:03):
And if they pull it off, if they finish thirteen
and four, the analysis is this really simple three part
formula for them to get that top spot.

Speaker 1 (04:11):
Okay, let's hear it.

Speaker 2 (04:12):
Step one is the part they control, win all four games,
get to thirteen and four.

Speaker 1 (04:16):
Simple enough.

Speaker 2 (04:17):
Step two you have to become a huge fan of
whoever's playing the Los Angeles Rams. They need the Rams
to lose just one game, but it.

Speaker 1 (04:26):
Has to be a specific type of game, right, yes.

Speaker 2 (04:28):
Very specific. It has to be one of their two
remaining divisional games. So either at Seattle in week sixteen
or home against Arizona in week eighteen.

Speaker 1 (04:37):
Okay, So a Rams divisional loss, and what's step three?

Speaker 2 (04:39):
Step three, they need the Green Bay Packers, who are
nine to three to one, to lose any single game
down the stretch. Any loss will do.

Speaker 1 (04:47):
So that Rams divisional loss is the real inchpin. What
happens If the Niners went out but the Rams and
Seahawks also finish thirteen and four, we're looking at a
massive tiebreaker, and that is.

Speaker 2 (04:56):
Where their record within their own division becomes the ace
up the sleeve. If that specific three way tie happens,
the forty nine ers would win the NFC West. The
reason is the tiebreaker criteria divisional record is way up there,
and in this scenario, they'd have a five to one record
in the.

Speaker 1 (05:12):
Division better than the Rams and Seahawks.

Speaker 2 (05:14):
Much better that five to one record saves them. It
validates that whole focus on just winning the games in
front of you, especially that Week eighteen finale.

Speaker 1 (05:23):
Okay, so we have the path. Let's add some probability
to this. We're gonna look at ESPN's Football Power Index
the FPI before we throw out numbers. Can you just
give a quick rundown of what FPI actually is? Sure?

Speaker 2 (05:36):
Yeah. FPI is basically ESPN's predictive metric. It's a simulation
system that measures team strength. It looks at efficiency, strength
of schedule, point differential, all that stuff.

Speaker 1 (05:46):
So it's not just a gut feeling.

Speaker 2 (05:48):
No, it stats. It's a way to quantify the likelihood
of something happening based on how a team is playing
right now.

Speaker 1 (05:55):
And according to FPI, the forty nine ers are in
a good spot for the playoffs in general, but they're
they're fighting uphill for that number one seed.

Speaker 2 (06:02):
That's a perfect way to put it. Their overall chance
to make the playoffs is a huge ninety three point
four percent. They're pretty much a lock. But look at
how fragile that is. If they win this Sunday against
the Titans. It only bumps up a little to ninety
six point one percent, okay, but if they lose, it
plummets down to eighty point two percent.

Speaker 1 (06:20):
Wow, a sixteen point swing on one easy game.

Speaker 2 (06:24):
That's the risk of the trap game right there. It
just shows that any misstep is a huge problem because
the division is just so good, and.

Speaker 1 (06:31):
The sources are calling the NFC West arguably the best
in football this year.

Speaker 2 (06:35):
With good reason. Think about this, this is only the
second time since the two thousand and two realignment that
a division has had three teams. The Rams, Seahawks, and
forty nine Ers, all at nine and four are better
this deep into the season. It's a total log jam,
it is, And the FPI numbers for that number one
seed really reflect that the Rams are the current favorite.

(06:57):
They have a forty four percent chance. Okay, is next
at twenty two point six percent, and the forty nine
Ers they were kind of the long shot back at
eleven point five percent.

Speaker 1 (07:07):
So if you're a forty nine Ers fan and you're
tracking all this, it sounds like there is one game
you absolutely have to circle on your calendar one hundred percent.

Speaker 2 (07:13):
It's that week sixteen Thursday night game Rams versus Seahawks.
The analysis says that game figures to shed plenty of
light on the situation.

Speaker 1 (07:21):
It's the key that unlocks the whole thing for them.

Speaker 2 (07:23):
It is it's a zero sum game that will dictate
the kind of help they need.

Speaker 1 (07:26):
Okay, let's shift to the human side of this. This
all requires an insane amount of discipline. How did the
players actually use that? Weirdly late by week it was
it was.

Speaker 2 (07:37):
A whole spectrum. You had mckivitz who went hunting. He
was literally sitting in a duck blind but had his
phone set up streaming the other games.

Speaker 1 (07:45):
Uh huh.

Speaker 2 (07:46):
And then other guys went to you know, Napa or Tahoe.
They just wanted to completely disconnect.

Speaker 1 (07:51):
But the story that really stood out to me was
from one of the rookies, cornerback Up and Stout. He
did something very different.

Speaker 2 (07:59):
Yeah, he didn't take a vacation at all. He stayed
home and spent the entire week doing film review and.

Speaker 1 (08:04):
Not just any film review.

Speaker 2 (08:05):
No, he watched four games of each of the niners
next four opponents. I mean that is an exhaustive level
of commitment. It's the total opposite of looking at the
big playoff pitcher.

Speaker 1 (08:16):
It's the definition of that one day at a time mindset.

Speaker 2 (08:20):
Precisely, you're not worried about the number one seed. You're
worried about the Titan slot receiver. And that focus, especially
from the younger guys, is what's kept them in this
thing despite all the injuries.

Speaker 1 (08:30):
And it sounds like even with all their talent, they're
really leaning into this underdog role.

Speaker 2 (08:36):
It's the smart play, right when the FBI says you're
chasing a team with a forty four percent chance, calling
yourself the underdog just fuels the fire. It helps drive
that intensity you need to win four straight.

Speaker 1 (08:47):
And you can basically wrap up their whole philosophy with
what the quarterback brock Purty said.

Speaker 2 (08:52):
Yeah, what was that?

Speaker 1 (08:53):
He just said, this is the most important time of
the year, for sure, but we just have to take
it one day at a time, one game at time,
and keep build holding our momentum.

Speaker 2 (09:01):
It's the perfect summary. Perfection for four games starts with
just being perfect for one.

Speaker 1 (09:06):
So if we pull all of this together for you,
the big takeaway is pretty clear. The forty nine ers
passes there, but it really requires a perfect storm, they
have to execute flawlessly for four straight weeks while getting
that very specific help the Rams divisional loss and a
Packers loss.

Speaker 2 (09:23):
And if either one of those external pieces doesn't fall
into place, the whole dream of a home super Bowl
just it vanishes.

Speaker 1 (09:31):
Right, And that brings me to a final sort of
provocative thought for you to chew on, something that comes
from digging into that FPI data. Okay, we said the
FPI gives the Rams the highest chance to win the
number one seed, right at forty four percent.

Speaker 2 (09:44):
Correct, But the same FPI analysis only gives the Rams
a fifty seven point five percent chance to win their
own division.

Speaker 1 (09:52):
And that's a fascinatingly small gap, just thirteen percentage points
between winning the NFC West and getting the top seed
in the whole conference.

Speaker 2 (10:00):
What does that tell you? What does that disparity suggest about,
you know, the wild nature of these late season divisional
tie breakers versus just overall strength.

Speaker 1 (10:08):
It suggests the race is way more open.

Speaker 2 (10:09):
Than it looks exactly. It highlights that the complexity of
this NSC West log jam, where a five to one
divisional record could be the deciding factor, means that even
if the Rams are the better team the top seed
is far from guaranteed, and that statistical vulnerability, that's the
crack in the door. That's the reason the forty nine
ers can legitimately adopt that underdog mindset, because the math

(10:33):
shows this race is much closer than that eleven point
five percent number makes it seem
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