5. The Decision

October 2024 to June 2025. Iranian missiles strike Tel Aviv, triggering eight months of impossible calculations by three world leaders. Prime Minister Weiss authorizes military planning while President Mitchell pursues diplomacy. Both discover that Iran is using negotiations to buy time for nuclear completion.

As the window for preventing nuclear war closes, Marcus coordinates final preparations knowing the operation will consume everyone who makes it possible. Dr. Tehrani provides final targeting intelligence. Colonel Karimi transmits his last message. The infiltration network prepares to be destroyed by its own success.Sometimes preventing catastrophe requires becoming people who no longer deserve to live in the world they saved. The decision to save the world has been made.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Operation Rising Lion is a fictional series based on real
world events. Any similarities between persons living or dead is
purely coincidental. Calarugu Shark Media.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
My name is Marcus Cole, and I need to tell
you about the eight months when three world leaders calculated
whether preventing nuclear war was worth triggering conventional war. It
began on October fifteenth, twenty twenty four, when Iranian missiles
struck Tel Aviv for the second time in six months.
Forty seven missiles launched from sites our intelligence had thought

(00:50):
destroyed precision guidance systems that shouldn't have existed, warheads with
explosive yields that exceeded our threat assessments. As I watched
satellite feeds of Israeli defense systems struggling to intercept the barrage,
I realized we've been calculating based on obsolete assumptions. Iran's

(01:11):
missile capabilities had advanced beyond our intelligence estimates, and their
nuclear program was accelerating faster than diplomatic negotiations could constrain it.
This is episode five the decision. That night, Prime Minister
Benjamin Weiss called an emergency security Cabinet meeting by morning,

(01:32):
he'd authorized the most comprehensive military planning operation in Israeli history,
Marcus Director Cohen said during a secure briefing three days later,
the Prime Minister wants contingency plans for eliminating Iran's nuclear
program entirely, not delaying it, not constraining it, eliminating it.

(01:53):
The mathematical scope was staggering. Iran had dispersed nuclear research
across dozens of facilities, buried critical infrastructure deep underground, and
integrated weapons development with civilian nuclear programs in ways that
made precision targeting extraordinarily complex. But the real complexity wasn't technical,
it was political. Any operation comprehensive enough to eliminate Iran's

(02:17):
nuclear capability would require resources beyond Israeli capacity. We would
need American bunker busting bombs to reach the Fordoh facility.
We would need American intelligence to coordinate simultaneous strikes across
multiple provinces. We would need American defensive systems to protect
Israel from inevitable retaliation. The mathematics of preventing nuclear war

(02:40):
required convincing President James Mitchell that regional war was preferable
to global catastrophe. But President Mitchell was pursuing a different calculation.
He'd spend his first months in office attempting to negotiate
a new nuclear agreement with Iran, one that would provide
sanctions relief in exchange for weapons development constraints that both
sides could accept. The President believes diplomacy can succeed where

(03:02):
military action would fail, came the message from our Washington
liaison in November twenty twenty four. He's requested that Israeli
military planning be suspended pending completion of nuclear negotiations. This
created an impossible equation. Iranian nuclear development was accelerating toward
weapons capability, while American diplomacy was decelerating Israeli military preparation.

(03:27):
The window for preventing nuclear breakout was closing, while the
window for diplomatic breakthrough remained hypothetically open. Prime Minister Weiss
faced a choice that would define his legacy. Defer to
American diplomatic preferences and risk Iranian nuclear weapons, or proceed
with military planning despite American objections and risk Israeli isolation.

(03:50):
He chose a middle course that satisfied no one and
complicated everything. Weiss authorized continued military planning under absolute secrecy
without a maya coordination. While publicly supporting Mitchell's diplomatic efforts,
Israel would prepare for military action, while hoping diplomatic action
would make military action unnecessary. It was a strategy that

(04:12):
required lying to our closest ally, while depending on that
ally's ultimate support. From my Tel Aviv control center, I
began coordinating the most complex deception operation of my career. Publicly,
Israeli intelligence was supporting American diplomatic initiatives. Privately, we were
preparing for military operations that would make diplomacy irrelevant. The

(04:34):
preparation required rebuilding capabilities that Captain Amir's investigation had systematically destroyed,
new infiltration networks, fresh asset recruitment, alternative communication channels, and
most critically, convincing doctor Ahmad Tehrani to continue providing intelligence
despite his growing psychological instability. I dream about moss In

(04:58):
Rahemi every night, Irani transmitted in December twenty twenty four,
his wife, asking if our research was worth men dying
for it. But now I also dream about my daughter
in London, asking why her father betrayed his homeland. I
don't know which nightmare is worse Tehrani's psychological deterioration was accelerating,
but his intelligence remained crucial for operational planning. His access

(05:22):
to Iranian nuclear facilities enabled precision targeting that would minimize
civilian casualties while maximizing programmatic damage. The calculation was becoming
increasingly cruel, maintained Tehrani's cooperation while planning operations that would
likely result in his death. But the larger calculation involved
President Mitchell's response to intelligence about Iranian nuclear acceleration. MARCUS

(05:48):
Director Cohen said during a January twenty twenty five briefing,
we need to brief the Americans about Iranian weapons development timelines.
They're negotiating based on intelligence that's six months obsolete. The
briefing took place in Washington on a cold Tuesday morning.
I sat across from CIA Director Sarah Chen and National
Security Advisor Robert Taylor, presenting intelligence that would fundamentally alter

(06:12):
American diplomatic calculations. Iranian weapons development has accelerated beyond previous assessments,
I explained, displaying technical specifications provided by Tehrani's network. Current
production timelines suggest weapons grade uranium availability within four to
six months, not the eighteen months, your negotiators are assuming.

(06:34):
Director Chen studied the documents with professional skepticism. Marcus, this
intelligence suggests Iran could complete nuclear breakout while negotiations are ongoing.
If this is accurate, diplomatic engagement becomes meaningless. That's the
assessment of Israeli leadership, I replied. The question is whether
American leadership reaches the same conclusion. The meeting lasted three hours,

(06:58):
technical discussions about uranium enrichment, strategic analysis of Iranian intentions,
political calculations about regional consequences, and ultimately the fundamental question
that would determine the future of the Middle East. Could
diplomacy prevent nuclear war? Or would preventing nuclear war require
ending diplomacy. President Mitchell's answer came two weeks later. The

(07:22):
President wants diplomacy to succeed. National Security Advisor Taylor informed
me during a secure call, but he understands the timeline constraints.
He's authorizing contingency planning for military support of Israeli operations,
but only if diplomatic negotiations fail conclusively. This was the
authorization we'd been calculating toward for months. American military planning

(07:45):
would proceed parallel to diplomatic negotiations, with implementation dependent on
diplomatic failure. But the timeline for diplomatic failure was measured
in weeks, while the timeline for operational preparation required months.
The mathematics were becoming increasingly impossible to solve. Meanwhile, Iranian
intelligence was drawing conclusions about Israeli military preparation that accelerated

(08:09):
their nuclear timeline even further. Archive Control Wolf reports unusual
activity in Iranian security protocols came Colonel Koremi's encryptid message
in February twenty twenty five. Senior leadership has concluded that
Israeli military action is probable regardless of diplomatic outcomes. Their
accelerating weapons development as to terrence against attack. This was

(08:33):
the nightmare scenario we'd calculated but hoped to avoid. Iranian
perception of imminent Israeli attack was triggering acceleration of nuclear
development that would make Israeli attack inevitable. The preparations designed
to prevent nuclear war were creating conditions that made nuclear
war more likely. But the intelligence Karemi provided also revealed

(08:55):
something more disturbing. Iranian leadership had decided to complete nuclear
weapons development, regardless of diplomatic agreements. They would negotiate publicly
while developing weapons privately, using diplomacy to buy time for
nuclear completion. President Mitchell's diplomatic strategy was being manipulated by
opponents who had no intention of honoring diplomatic commitments. Mister President,

(09:20):
I briefed him during a secure video conference in March
twenty twenty five. Iranian leadership is using negotiations as cover
for completing weapons development. They're calculating that nuclear capability provides
better security than nuclear agreements. Mitchell's response revealed the psychological
burden of making decisions that could trigger regional war or

(09:40):
enable nuclear war. Marcus, I became president to prevent conflicts,
not start them. But I also became president to protect
American interests in Allied security. If Iran is manipulating diplomacy
to complete nuclear weapons, then diplomacy becomes complicit in nuclear proliferation.
The President was reaching this s same mathematical conclusion as

(10:01):
Israeli leadership. Preventing nuclear war might require triggering conventional war,
but he needed proof that diplomacy had failed conclusively before
authorizing military action that could fail catastrophically. The proof came

(10:23):
in April twenty twenty five, when Tehrani provided intelligence about
a new underground enrichment facility at FORDEAH that would be
immune to conventional military strikes. They're calling it the Immunity Project.
Tehrani transmitted deep underground construction designed to withstand American bunker
busting bombs. Once operational, it will provide weapons grade uranium

(10:45):
production capacity that cannot be eliminated by external military action.
The facility would become operational in July twenty twenty five.
After that date, Iran's nuclear weapons capability would be essentially
invulnerable to me military intervention. The window for preventing nuclear
war was closing in three months. I brief both Israeli

(11:07):
and American leadership about the timeline implications. The mathematical conclusion
was unavoidable military action before July or nuclear weapons forever.
Prime Minister Weiss reached his decision. First, we cannot allow
Iran to achieve invulnerable nuclear capability, he announced during a
Security Cabinet meeting in May twenty twenty five. If American

(11:30):
diplomacy succeeds, military preparation becomes unnecessary. If American diplomacy fails,
military preparation becomes essential. Either way, preparation must be completed
before July. President Mitchell reached the same conclusion through different mathematics.
If Iran achieves invulnerable nuclear capability, American security guarantees become meaningless.

(11:54):
He told his national security team. Israel would face existential
threats that America couldn't address. Milliklitarily, regional nuclear proliferation would
become inevitable. Global nuclear stability would be fundamentally compromised. The
decision emerged from months of calculation. Operation Rising Line would
launch before Iran's immunity facility became operational, but the decision

(12:17):
also required accepting human costs that had been accumulating for
seven years. Doctor Ahmad Trani would provide final intelligence for
targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, knowing that accurate targeting would likely
result in his death. Colonel Koremi would coordinate with Israeli
operations while maintaining his cover as an Iranian intelligence officer,

(12:40):
accepting that success would probably result in his execution. The
infiltration network we'd build over three years would be consumed
by the operation it enabled, Marcus Director Cohen said during
our final planning meeting in May twenty twenty five. This
operation will save millions of lives by preventing nuclear war,
but it will cost the lives of everyone who made

(13:01):
it possible. How do we calculate the moral mathematics of
that exchange? I'd been calculating that equation for seven years.
Every operation since the Shora Bad Warehouse heist had required
sacrificing people who served the cause. They believed in the
network that prevented nuclear war would be consumed by preventing
nuclear war. The mathematics were brutal, but clear. The lives

(13:24):
saved by preventing nuclear weapons would justify the lives loss
preventing nuclear weapons. But accepting that calculation required becoming someone
I'd never wanted to be. The final authorization came during
a secure call between Prime Minister Weiss and President Mitchell
on June tenth, twenty twenty five. Jim Weis said, using
the informal address that reflected years of diplomatic relationship, Iranian

(13:48):
nuclear development has reached the point where military action becomes inevitable,
regardless of diplomatic preferences. The question is whether America supports
Israeli action or whether Israel acts a lie. Benjamin Mitchell replied,
America understands the timeline constraints and threat assessments will provide
the support necessary for successful operations, but those operations must

(14:12):
be precisely targeted to minimize civilian casualties in regional escalation.
The decision was made. Operation Rising Line would launch within
days with American support for Israeli execution, targeting Iranian nuclear
facilities with precision enabled by intelligence provided by assets who
would likely die providing it. From my Tel Aviv control center,

(14:35):
I began final operational coordination satellite targeting data provided by
Tehrani's network infiltration assets positioned by networks that Captain Emir
had spent years trying to expose American bunker busting bombs
calibrated for facilities that Colonel Karimi had helped us identify.
Seven years of intelligence operations culminating in military action that

(14:57):
would consume everyone who made it possible. The last message
from doctor Amatarani came on June twelfth, twenty twenty five.
Archive Control final intelligence package transmitted. Targeting data for all
nuclear facilities confirmed. Tell my daughter I was trying to
build something beautiful. Tell her the world is worth saving,

(15:18):
even when saving it requires sacrificing everything we love. The
last message from Colonel Koremi came six hours later. Wolf
confirms Iranian leadership gathering at emergency command centers. Security protocols
suggest they expect imminent action, recommend immediate implementation. This will
be my final transmission. The network that had prevented nuclear

(15:40):
war was ready to be consumed by the operation that
would complete the prevention of nuclear war. On June thirteenth,
twenty twenty five, at zero one hundred hours local time,
Israeli aircraft launched from bases across the country. American B
two bombers departed from bases in the continental United States.

(16:02):
Precision munitions, calibrated using intelligence provided by Iranian assets who
had chosen conscience over country, began their flight toward targets
that would determine whether nuclear war remained a threat or
became inevitable. The decision to prevent nuclear war had been made.
The human cost of that decision was about to be
calculated in the mathematics of mutually assured destruction. Next time,

(16:28):
I'll tell you about the sixty three hours when Operation
Rising Lion unfolded across the Middle East. How precision strikes
enabled by seven years of intelligence gathering destroyed Iran's nuclear
weapons capability while consuming everyone who made that precision possible.
Some decisions take months to reach and minutes to implement.
Some equations balance only when everyone who calculated them is eliminated,

(16:52):
and some mathematics require accepting that saving the world means
becoming people who no longer deserved to live in the
world they saved. The final calculation was about to begin.

Speaker 1 (17:16):
This episode is a production of Caloroga Shark Media executive
producers Mark Francis and John McDermott. For more shows like
this based on real world events, please go to Caloroga
dot com. The link is in the show notes. AI
production assistance may have been used in this series.