August 5, 2025 • 35 mins
Raphie and John are back with the second part of the trade deadline trilogy, this one focusing on the Ryan O'Hearn / Ramon Laureano trade with Baltimore.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Let's begin.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Hello and welcome to POD's above replacement part of the
Padres hot Tub podcast network. My name is Rayfie Cancer.
I am a host and producer of Padres Hot Tub
and joining me from the Mile High City. He's got
an eighty grade baseball name. It's John Pracoda.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
I appreciate that, but I don't have the stan Lee
name of every single pit player that we either acquired
or traded or traded away this this trade deadline I like.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
I like Pracoda. Pracoda is like a solid surname. You know,
it's it's no, it's no Butterworth. But uh, Dakota's up there.
Uh so John. This is the second of our trade
deadline recap episodes. We just talked talk to you know
each other about the Miller Sears Devrees trade. This one
probably uh you know, won't be as titillating in terms
(01:10):
of the long term implications, especially because what we got
back is not very long term and it is quite
a short term return, but very interesting in the last
you know, again, a very aj preller ish trade coming
down the pike. But initial impressions on the trade, which
(01:31):
is I will just lay out here Padres getting half
of a season of Ryan O'Hearn and one point five
years of Ramon Loreano. We'll talk about that in a
little bit from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Boston Bateman,
Cobb High Tower, Tyson Neighbors, Brandon Butterworth, Victor Figureoa, and
(01:54):
Tanner Smith John, what are your impressions?
Speaker 1 (01:59):
This is the the trade that I like. This is
the kind of trade that like Padre's Twitter. I don't know,
I'm not on Podrey's Twitter, but folks on those similar
things to say, like, I don't care about this guy.
He was never gonna be a Padre, and then like
five years later you're like, ah, Tyson Neighbors ends up
being a great Clipper or whatever, but whatever, you give
up six guys and none of them are one of
your top prospects, and you get useful utility for a
(02:22):
playoff run, and then the next year afterwards with Ramote Loriano.
Sweet I'm okay with that.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Yeah, Yeah, this was the trade. It came down the
pike about Pacific time, so about hour fifteen before the
deadline closed, and to me, it was the capstone trade
of the day. It was the one where it made
everything else sort of make sense. You know, we talked
a little bit at the end of the last show
(02:50):
about was Lao DeVries the best uh you know, excuse me,
was Mason Miller the best trade trip for Lao Deries
to be cashed in for.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
And you know the sort of very merits to that.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
And I think when you saw this trade come through,
everything was like, ah, right, okay, this must have been
lined up in the works, et cetera, et cetera when
that Mason Miller trade went through, Because I mean, I'll
be honest, like, this is basically an a trade for
me for the Padres. It's a win now move. Don't
(03:26):
get me wrong, but this is if you're gonna make
a win now trade, this is exactly the type of
trade that you make you shore up your two biggest weaknesses,
which is designated hitter and left field. And the Padres
did just that with Ryan O'Hearn, who was an All
Star this year, and Ramon Loreano, who I think is
someone who's sort of perennially been on AJ Preler's radar,
(03:49):
probably has been trying to acquire him, I think since
twenty one or twenty two, back when he was with
the Oakland Athletics and has never really come through, and
now AJ finally gets his man. And so why don't
we go first through the return that the Orioles are
getting the Padres prospects that we shipped out, because again,
like we mentioned, it is a full six pack of
(04:12):
Prodre's prospects. Uh, and we can kind of talk about
who we might miss the most from this, and then
we'll get into O'Hearn and Loreano and sort of what
the game theory behind lineup construction. Everything will be later
for the Padres season. But John, why don't you take
us through our Padres prospect six pack?
Speaker 1 (04:33):
All right, let's start with Boston Bateman, classic Stanley alliteration.
He is a just shy of twenty year old left
handed pitcher who is six foot eight two forty is
a big boy. The long and hanging read up on
him reads as a projectable amount, a word that you
would normally think of as the top of a J
(04:55):
Pillar's hierarchy of player. A Sean manaia like player who
pretty consistently he has been in the ninety three to
ninety seven mile per Hower range in twenty twenty five.
He's an innings eater starter's frame with mechanical consistency, but
Bateman's ceiling feels relatively low. All right, whatever that's I mean,
those are the kind of guys that you know that
(05:16):
you need in your system. Ideally they're not getting lots
of playing time, but if they do get playing time,
they're better than you know, some guy that you just
have to pick up off free agency. He's nineteen almost twenty,
so can he be much better than that? Probably he
has a chance of, as you know, growing into a
better player. Obviously he's nineteen years old. But if he's
(05:37):
kind of a more of a projectable guy than otherwise,
his ceiling is, like he says, relatively low, not gonna
make any of us cry down the line. He's not
gonna be a James Wood where we're talking about him
in the discord every day. And then next up is
Tyson Neighbors. He's a reliever who has been in the
ninety three to ninety five range with his fastball throughout
twenty twenty five. Pure middle relief. Look should move quickly.
(06:01):
There's a great chance, I would say that he doesn't
even make the major leagues for much. The chances of
him making more than one f war like him being
a bust, I would say, are super high. This is
kind of the forty range value that you'd probably be
in that, you know, seventy five percent chance that he
doesn't get even one war, and if he does get
one war, I don't think he's going to be a
closer for somebody with a fastball running ninety three to
ninety five. That being said, he does have crazy induced vertical,
(06:26):
so I might be wrong, but so does Yuki Matsui.
And I was all hyped on Yuki Matsui and his
induced vertical and that has not worked out. Why because
he's not throwing it hard enough. And that might be
the case with Tyson neighbors as well. Maybe not. Maybe
they as in velocity and they keep that induce vertical
and he turns out to be really good. We'll see
next up. Cobb Tie Cobb High Tower. He is one
(06:49):
of the family members of one of the people from
a House of the Dragon. They're the kind of green
side not really good, mostly bad guys and a utility
infield prospect with big power without big power projection due
to his lack of size, So utility guy whatever. Brandon Butterworth,
(07:11):
like Boston Bateman, a classic Stanley alliterative alliterative name. He
says in his read up on him that he was
the best shortstop defender in Fort Wayne, but was moved
off shortstop due the presence of Leoti rees which kind
of in our last episode we were talking about whether
Leodi of Reees, especially if he gains weight and strength,
(07:31):
will stay on shortstop. This is kind of tells you
that he's already not the best defender. Butterworth is the
better defender on the roster currently. But this guy is
going to be a versatile. It sounds like a Tyler
Waite guy to me. Versatile is possible to play a
big role because he lacks strength with the bat so
much so that it will impact his ability to make
contact at all as he climbed. So maybe he'll play
(07:52):
every single position and hit poorly. Figureoa, I didn't even
write down his first name. It is Victor for you,
ro F. I don't know. He has one hundred and
twelve maximum exhiblocity but just a seventy percent contact rate,
so that sounds like Josh Meres.
Speaker 4 (08:11):
He is a really big guy.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Like Josh Muirs. He has a huge, exhiblocity like Josh Mures,
contact with the ball like Josh Mures. So when's the
last time you heard the name Josh Mure's probably been
a while.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
I wouldn't he just retired?
Speaker 1 (08:27):
Guy? Did he?
Speaker 3 (08:29):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (08:29):
He did officially, you're keeping up to date on the
Josh Muirs news. It was on the padres Atov discord.
I saw it and I was like, WHOA, that's a
bad name.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Is a throwback?
Speaker 1 (08:38):
Yeah, because he had that one I don't remember who
was off, but he had that one home run in
spring training that was like one hundred and seventeen miles
an hour. Yeah, crazy, And then everybody was like, Oh
my god, this is gonna be a guy and he
was not a guy. Tanner Smith sounds like a Cleveland pitcher.
He is a six foot six guy with with a
(09:00):
nice arm action, but currently pretty generic stuff. Yeah whatever,
that's it on him. So all of these guys are
kind of not the use the word titillating. I'm gonna
just keep using the word tittilating because it's a good word.
Not the titillating, tantalizing, exciting players that you would normally
see at the top of AJ Peller's cohort of prospects.
(09:23):
Also probably I would say, not guys that if we
had kept them for another year or two years, suddenly
their trade value would go up, because they have relatively
low ceilings. I don't think that they would suddenly like
their their possibility of at one point in time, at
one you know, minute in time, being worth a star
(09:43):
player at some point, I think all of their likelihoods
of that happening are super low, which probably adds to
the A. J. Piller's thought process overall, because he uses
these things as these players, these human beings, as value commodities,
and I don't think any of them will would probably
be likely to have that kind of Estuary Ruiz type
(10:04):
bump in the next year. Maybe not. Maybe they will,
but probably not.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
In terms of a future war analysis, I basically said,
there's not really any use doing it because none of
these prospects that we gave up are ranked high enough.
Like I think you can look at this sort of
soup of six guys and say that they're probably worth
about one future war, which you know, you could say
that the Padres are giving that up and if the
return was just half a season. Novo hearn and half
(10:33):
of a season e Vermon Loreano, I'd say, yeah, probably
about even, Like, you know, that's this seems like a
you know, a when now move picking up a couple rentals.
But the sort of the wrench in this and where
I think this really comes out in the Padres favor
is that Loriano has a club option next year and
it is a very cheap club option. I believe it's
(10:55):
six and a half million dollars that the Padres would
oh ramone Loreano if they activate it next year. And
you know, at the time that that deal was signed
with the Orioles, I think that, you know, you could
argue that that was you know, probably a pretty even
fair valuation of Vermone Loreano. But he's gone on to
(11:17):
have an unbelievable offensive season, which we'll talk about in
a little bit. But you know, I I think that
the projections of Vermon Loreano are going to be updated
right now. Zip's going into this season projected him as
putting up one point four war next year, and that's
in three hundred and seventy eight played appearances. I think
that that number number will be higher because he's put
(11:39):
up a one forty one w RC plus this season
so far, he's already put up two point two f
four in some.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
That's a real that's a real one forty one WRC plus,
Like the x WOB is exactly the same as the
oh yeah, it's real, it's not it's not something that is.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
Just it's not fake. He has a five to twenty
one slug and I think and I think he has
a like I'm thirty expected slug, Like this is a
real thing, and the fact that the Potters are able
to control that for next year with six and a
half million dollars is a massive win. And it just like,
you know, I think if I were an Ools fan,
I'd be pretty pissed because, you know, this to me
(12:17):
indicates that they don't think that they're going to be
able to use Loriano next year on a winning team,
which means that the Ools, in their very brief period
of competitiveness, have now are now dipping into like a
slight you know, I wouldn't call it a full rebuild,
but they're probably looking more at twenty twenty seven, you know,
will given the fact that they you know, have Jackson
Holiday and I don't know when Adlee Rushman is going
(12:38):
to be a free agent, but they have these guys
for a few more years, so, you know, a little
disappointing for Oils fans, but hey, happy to be on
the on the winning end of this, the receiving end
of it. Let's talk about the players that we're getting back.
So Ryan O'Hearn, Ryan O'Hearn, interesting guy. He's thirty two
(12:58):
years old. He's a lefty batter, first base slash DH
drafted in twenty fourteen by the Kansas City Royals in
the eighth round and ultimately he spent several years with
the Royals and was not good. He was actually a
sub replacement level on his career with the Kansas City Royals,
(13:18):
so much so to the point that in twenty twenty
two he was dfaded by the Royals to make room
for John Do you know which former Padres pitcher on
the Royals roster he was dfaid for?
Speaker 3 (13:33):
This would be an unbelievable poll.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
Who.
Speaker 2 (13:35):
This is the end of twenty twenty two, so this
is November of twenty twenty two, end of the season.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
So during the end of the season he was defade.
Speaker 4 (13:44):
Yeah, and they signed a player.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
They signed a player for twenty twenty three.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
It was in the middle season, right, No, no, no, no,
it was after the season November twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1 (13:54):
Yeah, November of twenty twenty two.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
This would be unbelievable if you got this.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
Well that it's so Royals player.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
Former Padres pitcher, who's a former Padres picture And it's
not Lugo.
Speaker 1 (14:10):
It's not it's not a.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
It's not Waka, it's not Lugo.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
For the is it a starting pitcher?
Speaker 2 (14:18):
It is a. I think he's a former starter. I
don't know if he's since really I think he was.
He was starting with the Padres. I don't I don't
think that he he might still not be starting.
Speaker 1 (14:34):
I've got no no ringing of any bells. I have
no idea.
Speaker 3 (14:38):
Jordan Lyles, Jordan Lyles, I remember that now. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
I was like, if you get this, this would be unbelievable.
But just to give you an idea of like what
the Royals thought of Ryan O'Hearn.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
They defeated him to Jordan Lyles.
Speaker 2 (14:53):
Okay, so uh, The Oriols trade for him for cash considerations.
One of the most prolific player in Major League Baseball history,
cash considerations and basically from the moment he gets to
Baltimore in twenty three and twenty four, he's a plus contributor.
He puts up, I mean, nothing but consistent, one hundred
and seventeen WRC plus in back to back seasons, one
(15:16):
point five f four in back to back seasons. You know,
just on either of three hundred and sixty eight plate
appearances in twenty twenty three, four hundred ninety four played
appearances in twenty twenty four. You know, just solid, dependable,
solid above average hitter, not blowing the lights off of anyone.
(15:37):
And then this season, all of a sudden, Ryan O'Hearn
is really really blossomed. He's one hundred and thirty four
WRC plus, slashing two eighty two, three seventy five four
sixty two. Should also be said that he's playing a
really good first base. According to stat cast, his range
is out of average ninety third percentile, with SIXA at
(16:00):
first base. And uh, look, I mean, in his career
he's a strict platoon bat. You know, he has a
fifty nine WRC plus against lefties and a one oh
nine WRC plus against righty's, and the season's no different.
Although obviously those numbers are much higher overall, one forty
three WRC plus against righty's against a ninety two WRC
(16:23):
plus against lefties.
Speaker 3 (16:26):
What do you make of Ryan O'Hearn, John, So, the thing.
Speaker 1 (16:30):
About him that makes me less nervous is that now
it's this is his third consecutive season where you would
take any of those seasons as like the outcome for
the rest of this season. If he puts up one
hundred and seventeen WRC plus, you know, great, that's perfectly acceptable.
That's a cromulent result. And then now he's had two
straight years of having an ex WOBO over three point fifty.
(16:51):
So also, dope, the thing that makes me a little
bit nervous, which has nothing to do with Ryan O'Hearn,
but has to do with things that have no thing
to do with science and are just weird feelings in
the back of.
Speaker 4 (17:02):
Your head, are.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
What were the last two like similar players to O'Hearn
that we got at the deadline to kind of fill
a hole for me. That's Josh Bell and Mitch Moreland
Mitchie two bags. So what do you remember twenty twenty
when when Mitch Moreland played for the Padres in twenty
twenty he came over having a two hundred and five
(17:25):
WRC plus.
Speaker 4 (17:26):
It was twenty twenty, so it was in like seventy
nine at bats.
Speaker 1 (17:28):
But whatever, what was his line for the Padres.
Speaker 3 (17:34):
His WRC plus for the Padres sure sixty three sixty
Oh okay, pretty clus.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
Josh Bell, So he was at one forty five before
he came over sporting a three oh one three eighty
four four ninety three slash line in a significant four
hundred and thirty seven pas. He had two hundred and
ten played appearances for the Potters in twenty twenty two.
What pray tell me was his WRC.
Speaker 4 (17:59):
Plus fifty eight seventy nine?
Speaker 3 (18:03):
Oh better seventy nine?
Speaker 1 (18:04):
Yeah, I know, seventy nine was one ninety two three
sixteen two seventy so held up by a few walks
that he was receiving. And then I mean, those two
things are you know nothing to do with Ryan Hearn
has you know nothing to do with anything, to be honest,
And he has a longer track record than those two
had at that time, at least in terms of consistency
(18:25):
over the past few years. That being said, I also
have a question of what exactly is his value like
I would, so the hole that he's filling. It seems
now that we've got him and Loreano is first base
slash DH, right, I think that we can both agree
that it seems like Loren is probably going to be
the consistent left fielder. And now he is first base
(18:47):
last slash DH, and so is Gavin Sheets, and so
has Arise and he is basically the same dude as
Gavin Sheets in that they're both left handed hitters. Who
are you know, first base lash d Like, is there
a difference between those two? Is there some time that
you'd want to play those two and not play a rise?
Speaker 4 (19:04):
Probably?
Speaker 1 (19:05):
Not? A rise is like going to play. And so
now you're having to choose between Gavin Sheets and Ryan
O'Hearn and the other one's gonna be a pinch hitter.
Their ex wilbaz are Sheets is three p fifty six
so far this year and then his is three seventy
four so far this year, so very similar players overall.
And then how important is a bench pinch hitter? Probably
(19:28):
not crazy important. So I do wonder about redundancy more
than anything else.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
Yeah, I think this is maybe there's a good.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
Maybe it's good built in redundancy when you like Mitch
Moreland and Josh Bell, somebody falls off and then you
can use the other one.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
Yeah, I don't have a problem with that. I think
this is still a reflection of the original sin of
the Padres roster construction at the beginning of the year
in left field, in that you know Ramon Loreano, he's
good enough to play every day and I don't want to, uh,
(20:03):
you know, this is not some sort of like Demerit
Tordra Monliano. But but ideally you would have another righty
bat who platoons well against lefty pitching, who you could
then swap out for Gavin Sheets or Ryan O'Hearn or
however you're aligned to that day, and you can have
a just true platoon lineup right now on the Padres roster,
(20:24):
the righty platoon DH bat is Jose Glacias, which I
love Jose Glacias as a bench guy, you know, down
the road, but as the main DH against like lefty
pitchers like kind of leaves a lot to be desired.
It's kind of hard to believe that the Padres didn't
have someone that they could find at the beginning of
(20:46):
the year who could fulfill that role and we're sort
of left to go to OMG, it's easiest thing.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
A short sighted platoon, that's usually the easiest thing to get, right, Yeah,
who could hate lefties?
Speaker 2 (20:57):
So you know, again, the Herne situation in a vacuum
is is fine. I think it's just a you know,
a little lot to be desired on the short side
of that platoon. I think in terms of the first
base thing, it's really interesting because ohearne should absolutely be
playing first base over Luisa Rise. I really don't think
there's any way that you can justify it. But I
think that the thinking for the team is you're gonna
(21:20):
play a Rise no matter what against lefties or alrighty's.
And if you were to play O'Hearn at first base
instead of a Rise and you needed to substitute him
later in the game for Jose Glacias, you would essentially
be putting Jose Glacias at second and moving Jake Cronaworth
to first in the middle of the game versus just
(21:41):
I'm sorry, all.
Speaker 1 (21:42):
Of which is the best defensive outcome of all of
the options.
Speaker 4 (21:45):
So that's I agree, A good yeah.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
I agree, but I don't think that the padres, or
at least Mike Schultz views it that way. I think
that they're like, it's the least disruptive if we just
sub out our dhs, which I don't I don't agree
with personally, but like, hey, you know that's grit that's
on Grit Squad Mike Shilt for to decide and not
on these two bozo's and they're on their computers and
(22:09):
their spreadsheets and all that stuff. But you know, we'll
disagree and agree to disagree with Mike Shilt. But I
think that that so far, I mean, who's to say,
We've got two months of the season left. Things could change,
but so far, that's the signal that the team is
given uh in the in the two games that we've
seen so far, and I think that that would be
a mistake going forward.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
Anything else. On Herne before we launched Loreano, the.
Speaker 1 (22:35):
Only thing that I can think is that, so he's
obviously killing it this year, and he was last year too,
and then kind of the year before as well. His
ex wobook con So, like how hard he's he hits
the ball has been pretty consistent the whole time. It's
really just that he's had more like temperance at the plate.
He's struck out fewer times, and he's getting to his
(22:55):
pitches and so he's getting to put the ball in
play more often and since or take a walk. But
so since he's like kind of getting ahead in the count,
he's doing the damage that he's always done. So to me,
that's a positive aspect, Like as long as he's getting
his pitch, he's going to hit it hard, not always
over the fence because he's more of a hard contact,
line drive guy than a home run guy, but enough
(23:17):
to provide damage.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
Yeah, So onto Loreano. So Loreano interesting guy. He just
turned thirty one, which is kind of remarkable because in
my mind he's just sort of a guy who's been
around for a long time, but he's just turned thirty one.
He's a Dominican player, but he came and played college
(23:39):
baseball at Northeastern, Oklahoma A and M University.
Speaker 4 (23:43):
So he was dur in Oklahoma A and M University.
Speaker 1 (23:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (23:46):
I didn't even look up what the mascot is on
that one, but all of that's to say he was
He was taken in the MLB domestic draft rather than
being an international signee, so he was taken in the
sixteenth round by the Houston Astro in twenty fourteen, sort
of when they were at the pinnacle of their prospect
building capability before they built the World Series trash Can
(24:09):
smashing team a few years later. But Loreano was not
thought of very highly in the Astros organization. In fact,
he was not protected at the end of the twenty
seventeen season and was almost undoubtedly going to be selected
in the Rule five draft, And so the Astros traded
(24:30):
him to the Athletics right before the Rule five draft
at the Winter meetings, and they traded him for do
you know which picture? Which relief picture? This is like,
this is an all world strategy question or a trivia question.
It's almost cruel that I'm asking it. It is a
(24:51):
picture named Brandon Bailey. Brandon Bailey, who ended up only
throwing seven and a third innings for the Houston Astros
in the COVID season.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
Boston Bateman or Brandon Butterworth.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
Sorry he's different, Yeah, I know, it's.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Just a Bateman or Brandon Butterworth.
Speaker 3 (25:10):
Another be a literative name.
Speaker 2 (25:13):
Yeah. So that was the extent of Brandon Bailey's major
league career. And so you can say, unfortunately for the Astros,
they lost out on that one. And since he started
playing in the major leagues with the Oakland Athletics, super
interesting guy. I mean in twenty nineteen, in his age
twenty four season, he put up almost four f four
(25:34):
one hundred and twenty seven WRC plus playing good defense.
I think the thing that people know Ramon Loriano the
most for is his arm, because he's had just some
all world, all time throws from the outfield, outfield assists to.
Speaker 3 (25:51):
Get runners out.
Speaker 2 (25:53):
And after Oakland he was traded, he went to New
York for a little bit, to New York Mets, he
went to the Cleveland Guardians, eventually ended up with the
Baltimore Orioles. And when he ended up with the Oils,
he signed this contract that was a two year deal
(26:13):
with the club option as the second year. He was
getting paid four million dollars this season and then next year,
like we said, it is gonna be paid about six
and a half mil. And again at the time, you know,
he was sort of a journeyman. During the end of
his time with the Athletics, was putting up sub one
hundred WRC pluses and then sort of revitalizes his career
(26:34):
a little bit last year in twenty twenty four, ends
the season with a one hundred and eight WRC plus
and like we said, this season, he's just seen this
power explosion. He's slashing two eighty five three point fifty
five twenty one, which again makes him the highest slugger
on the Padres right now.
Speaker 3 (26:54):
And as John mentioned.
Speaker 2 (26:55):
Earlier, three seventy two wOBA, three seventy two expected wOBA.
This is not helium. This is the real deal. This
guy has been hitting the snot.
Speaker 3 (27:05):
Out of the ball. Uh and uh. John, When you
saw the Padres traded for Ramonte Loreano, what was your feeling?
Speaker 1 (27:13):
Thank God? Mostly mostly just that we got a guy
didn't even have to be Vermote Loreano, but hey, a
left fielder was nice to have. Is we had such
obvious holes, and so if we would have gone into
the trade deadline and gotten a reliever and then left
that left field open and the catching spot open, it
would have been absolutely horrible. But you know, he's having
a good year. He is more than O'Hearn kind of
(27:36):
a whoa, this happened out of nowhere. Question mark of
whether it's possible to keep going that being said, his
contract is so reasonable that even if he puts up
around one war next year, it's worth it. So you know,
outfield depth wonderfull. We could play left or right field,
play it adequately. I mean OAA says that it's not
very he's not very spry on his feet. But that
(27:58):
being said, our left field is small, so I'm sure
exactly his play in leftfield at Peco with his arm
would probably be a cremulent defender. Like I said before,
there is a couple things that I want to dig
into that it's kind of peculiar to him that I
don't know exactly how they're going to play out. But
there's one thing that's kind of promising. But before I
go into that, I perseverated on Northeastern Oklahoma A and
(28:21):
M University and I will pay you one American dollar
if you tell me what A and M stands for.
So there's schools that are like Texas A and M.
What does A and M stand for?
Speaker 2 (28:30):
I know that the A is agriculture, fuck, but I
don't know it is M. Okay, So if A is agriculture,
is M manufacturing?
Speaker 1 (28:43):
Ooh close, it's agricultural and mechanical mechanical. He went to
Northeastern Oklahoma Agricultural and Mechanical University.
Speaker 2 (28:55):
WHOA, yeah, because they're supposed to be like technical colleges, right.
Speaker 4 (29:00):
Yeah, I suppose trade school.
Speaker 1 (29:01):
They're in Northeast Oklahoma.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
Okay, So that was the first a little bit.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
That's the first thing that's the break him down more
than agricultural and mechanical. So one thing is he is
not really a split sky. He kind of is overall
in his career. In his career he's put up a
one twenty two WRC plus against lefties, but a one
oh eight WRC plus against arriety, So you know, that's
less than one standard deviation away in terms of quality.
(29:28):
So not somebody that you'd obviously say, let's hit this
guy primarily against lefties, and in fact this year that's
been completely switched to the tune of a WRC plus
against lefties of one to fifteen, so fifteen percent above average,
and a WRC plus against right handed pitchers of one
fifty five with a splitz of three h two average,
three sixty four obp and five fifty six slugging and
(29:49):
a nine to twenty ops overall, So he's just crushing
right handed hitters, I mean right handed pitchers pretty much
been very good on all kinds of pitches, fastball, breaking ball,
off speed, all at least three twenty x L or higher.
Three eighty five on fastballs, three eighty five on breaking ball.
So he's crushing both breaking balls and fastballs and still
being effective against soft speed pitching. And then the one
(30:11):
thing that was interesting to me because he's kind of
changed a little bit of how he's bad, like what
his batted ball profile is, particularly in one individual case
where he's pulling the ball in the air a lot more.
And if you think about pulling the ball in the
air as a right handed hitter in Petco Park, that
tends to be successful. That's like what Higgy did to
(30:33):
have such great numbers at Peco as he would pull
the ball to that, you know, to the left field side,
and he'd be able to instead of hitting doubles, hit
home runs. And so if he continues to do that,
he's pulling the ball in the air to twenty three
point eight percent clip this year compared to a sixteen
point seven percent for Major League as a whole, So
you know, one and a half times as much as
(30:54):
average that should play well in Peco Park, especially in
regards to hitting home runs.
Speaker 3 (31:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
Absolutely, And yeah, I mean, like this is you know
we're going to talk about for me in a second.
We obviously already talked about Bason Miller and JP Sears,
but Loreanno is going to be here next year. And
I think that that's really really important because you know,
the Padres farm system is, as Ben Commons put it,
(31:24):
perpetually thin, and there was no there's no help coming
in left field next season from within the organization, which
means that they would have to sign a free agent
if they did not make this trade or run out
the likes of whatever next year's version of Jason Hayward
is and next year's version of Connor Joe or whatever,
(31:49):
and so to make this trade, which really didn't cost
you a lot, Like, I know, it's six guys, and
I'm sure, I'm sure one of those guys is going
to play in the major leagues. I don't know, you
know who it's gonna be, and I don't know what
kind of impact they're going to have, but one of
those guys will play in the major leagues, you know,
I think being able to shore up your left field
(32:12):
for next season, have a outfield that each of the
three guys has an all star ceiling, Like, that's pretty great.
That's pretty great for twenty twenty six, and you can
hope that by twenty twenty seven the Padres have figured
out some sort of other solution. But you don't have
to worry about the other two spots in the outfield
(32:34):
for the rest of the twenty twenties, which is pretty
cool to say.
Speaker 1 (32:40):
And it's like, our lineup is so much different with
just this little bit of added depth, where the bottom
of the lineup is not just the pitchers are going
to run them over. You know, Ramon Loriano, he might
do damage. Ryan o'harnt, he might do damage. And then
we'll talk about for me in the next episode. But
for me, at least two fifty batting average for his
(33:01):
whole career, he'll you know, get a single once in
a while out of a ninth slot. But whatever, it's
it's it's just this depth problem that we had and
you could pitch around guys if you wanted to. Now
you kind of can't because there's there's damage coming at
the bottom of the order at least once in a while.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
Ramon Loreano is taking at bats in place of Bryce Johnson,
Like that's just that you want to set up the trade.
Speaker 1 (33:22):
Incredible, just so you know he's betting three thirty or whatever.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
But yeah, don't look at that bat. But hey, he's
good and he could bunt with the rest of them.
So and look Bryce Johnson as the fifth outfielder on
this team. Awesome, great, I love that. But as you're
starting everyday left fielder. It's some people were saying on
like July twenty seventh, like, maybe we don't need to
trade for a left fielder.
Speaker 3 (33:46):
Look at bjuh. Yeah, I don't know about.
Speaker 4 (33:49):
Wob that would have been yea disaster in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (33:53):
Absolute disaster. So yeah, I mean I love this trade.
It's just a classic, like when now trade that. I
think it's so much more fun to be on this
side of it than to be on the other side
of it. So good on aj Preller, good use of
his assets. Anything else before we move on to our
next trade.
Speaker 1 (34:13):
No, this is the one that, like Phil holes, it
makes you extends the lineup. This is the this was
the home run trade. If it would have only been
this trade, I also would have been perfectly acceptable of
the of the deadline deals, but new other players are
gonna be help
Speaker 2 (34:29):
Too, So we had the bold trade of Mason Miller
Jpcars for debrees, we had the beautiful trade of the
of of Hern and Loreano for the six pack, and
coming up on our next episode, we have the bewildering
trade of of for Mean for Colok and Bergert, so
(34:52):
stick around for that in the next episode, but until then,
For John Pracota, I'm Raypie Canter and we will see
you next time.
Let's begin.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Hello and welcome to POD's above replacement part of the
Padres hot Tub podcast network. My name is Rayfie Cancer.
I am a host and producer of Padres Hot Tub
and joining me from the Mile High City. He's got
an eighty grade baseball name. It's John Pracoda.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
I appreciate that, but I don't have the stan Lee
name of every single pit player that we either acquired
or traded or traded away this this trade deadline I like.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
I like Pracoda. Pracoda is like a solid surname. You know,
it's it's no, it's no Butterworth. But uh, Dakota's up there.
Uh so John. This is the second of our trade
deadline recap episodes. We just talked talk to you know
each other about the Miller Sears Devrees trade. This one
probably uh you know, won't be as titillating in terms
(01:10):
of the long term implications, especially because what we got
back is not very long term and it is quite
a short term return, but very interesting in the last
you know, again, a very aj preller ish trade coming
down the pike. But initial impressions on the trade, which
(01:31):
is I will just lay out here Padres getting half
of a season of Ryan O'Hearn and one point five
years of Ramon Loreano. We'll talk about that in a
little bit from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Boston Bateman,
Cobb High Tower, Tyson Neighbors, Brandon Butterworth, Victor Figureoa, and
(01:54):
Tanner Smith John, what are your impressions?
Speaker 1 (01:59):
This is the the trade that I like. This is
the kind of trade that like Padre's Twitter. I don't know,
I'm not on Podrey's Twitter, but folks on those similar
things to say, like, I don't care about this guy.
He was never gonna be a Padre, and then like
five years later you're like, ah, Tyson Neighbors ends up
being a great Clipper or whatever, but whatever, you give
up six guys and none of them are one of
your top prospects, and you get useful utility for a
(02:22):
playoff run, and then the next year afterwards with Ramote Loriano.
Sweet I'm okay with that.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Yeah, Yeah, this was the trade. It came down the
pike about Pacific time, so about hour fifteen before the
deadline closed, and to me, it was the capstone trade
of the day. It was the one where it made
everything else sort of make sense. You know, we talked
a little bit at the end of the last show
(02:50):
about was Lao DeVries the best uh you know, excuse me,
was Mason Miller the best trade trip for Lao Deries
to be cashed in for.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
And you know the sort of very merits to that.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
And I think when you saw this trade come through,
everything was like, ah, right, okay, this must have been
lined up in the works, et cetera, et cetera when
that Mason Miller trade went through, Because I mean, I'll
be honest, like, this is basically an a trade for
me for the Padres. It's a win now move. Don't
(03:26):
get me wrong, but this is if you're gonna make
a win now trade, this is exactly the type of
trade that you make you shore up your two biggest weaknesses,
which is designated hitter and left field. And the Padres
did just that with Ryan O'Hearn, who was an All
Star this year, and Ramon Loreano, who I think is
someone who's sort of perennially been on AJ Preler's radar,
(03:49):
probably has been trying to acquire him, I think since
twenty one or twenty two, back when he was with
the Oakland Athletics and has never really come through, and
now AJ finally gets his man. And so why don't
we go first through the return that the Orioles are
getting the Padres prospects that we shipped out, because again,
like we mentioned, it is a full six pack of
(04:12):
Prodre's prospects. Uh, and we can kind of talk about
who we might miss the most from this, and then
we'll get into O'Hearn and Loreano and sort of what
the game theory behind lineup construction. Everything will be later
for the Padres season. But John, why don't you take
us through our Padres prospect six pack?
Speaker 1 (04:33):
All right, let's start with Boston Bateman, classic Stanley alliteration.
He is a just shy of twenty year old left
handed pitcher who is six foot eight two forty is
a big boy. The long and hanging read up on
him reads as a projectable amount, a word that you
would normally think of as the top of a J
(04:55):
Pillar's hierarchy of player. A Sean manaia like player who
pretty consistently he has been in the ninety three to
ninety seven mile per Hower range in twenty twenty five.
He's an innings eater starter's frame with mechanical consistency, but
Bateman's ceiling feels relatively low. All right, whatever that's I mean,
those are the kind of guys that you know that
(05:16):
you need in your system. Ideally they're not getting lots
of playing time, but if they do get playing time,
they're better than you know, some guy that you just
have to pick up off free agency. He's nineteen almost twenty,
so can he be much better than that? Probably he
has a chance of, as you know, growing into a
better player. Obviously he's nineteen years old. But if he's
(05:37):
kind of a more of a projectable guy than otherwise,
his ceiling is, like he says, relatively low, not gonna
make any of us cry down the line. He's not
gonna be a James Wood where we're talking about him
in the discord every day. And then next up is
Tyson Neighbors. He's a reliever who has been in the
ninety three to ninety five range with his fastball throughout
twenty twenty five. Pure middle relief. Look should move quickly.
(06:01):
There's a great chance, I would say that he doesn't
even make the major leagues for much. The chances of
him making more than one f war like him being
a bust, I would say, are super high. This is
kind of the forty range value that you'd probably be
in that, you know, seventy five percent chance that he
doesn't get even one war, and if he does get
one war, I don't think he's going to be a
closer for somebody with a fastball running ninety three to
ninety five. That being said, he does have crazy induced vertical,
(06:26):
so I might be wrong, but so does Yuki Matsui.
And I was all hyped on Yuki Matsui and his
induced vertical and that has not worked out. Why because
he's not throwing it hard enough. And that might be
the case with Tyson neighbors as well. Maybe not. Maybe
they as in velocity and they keep that induce vertical
and he turns out to be really good. We'll see
next up. Cobb Tie Cobb High Tower. He is one
(06:49):
of the family members of one of the people from
a House of the Dragon. They're the kind of green
side not really good, mostly bad guys and a utility
infield prospect with big power without big power projection due
to his lack of size, So utility guy whatever. Brandon Butterworth,
(07:11):
like Boston Bateman, a classic Stanley alliterative alliterative name. He
says in his read up on him that he was
the best shortstop defender in Fort Wayne, but was moved
off shortstop due the presence of Leoti rees which kind
of in our last episode we were talking about whether
Leodi of Reees, especially if he gains weight and strength,
(07:31):
will stay on shortstop. This is kind of tells you
that he's already not the best defender. Butterworth is the
better defender on the roster currently. But this guy is
going to be a versatile. It sounds like a Tyler
Waite guy to me. Versatile is possible to play a
big role because he lacks strength with the bat so
much so that it will impact his ability to make
contact at all as he climbed. So maybe he'll play
(07:52):
every single position and hit poorly. Figureoa, I didn't even
write down his first name. It is Victor for you,
ro F. I don't know. He has one hundred and
twelve maximum exhiblocity but just a seventy percent contact rate,
so that sounds like Josh Meres.
Speaker 4 (08:11):
He is a really big guy.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Like Josh Muirs. He has a huge, exhiblocity like Josh Mures,
contact with the ball like Josh Mures. So when's the
last time you heard the name Josh Mure's probably been
a while.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
I wouldn't he just retired?
Speaker 1 (08:27):
Guy? Did he?
Speaker 3 (08:29):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (08:29):
He did officially, you're keeping up to date on the
Josh Muirs news. It was on the padres Atov discord.
I saw it and I was like, WHOA, that's a
bad name.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Is a throwback?
Speaker 1 (08:38):
Yeah, because he had that one I don't remember who
was off, but he had that one home run in
spring training that was like one hundred and seventeen miles
an hour. Yeah, crazy, And then everybody was like, Oh
my god, this is gonna be a guy and he
was not a guy. Tanner Smith sounds like a Cleveland pitcher.
He is a six foot six guy with with a
(09:00):
nice arm action, but currently pretty generic stuff. Yeah whatever,
that's it on him. So all of these guys are
kind of not the use the word titillating. I'm gonna
just keep using the word tittilating because it's a good word.
Not the titillating, tantalizing, exciting players that you would normally
see at the top of AJ Peller's cohort of prospects.
(09:23):
Also probably I would say, not guys that if we
had kept them for another year or two years, suddenly
their trade value would go up, because they have relatively
low ceilings. I don't think that they would suddenly like
their their possibility of at one point in time, at
one you know, minute in time, being worth a star
(09:43):
player at some point, I think all of their likelihoods
of that happening are super low, which probably adds to
the A. J. Piller's thought process overall, because he uses
these things as these players, these human beings, as value commodities,
and I don't think any of them will would probably
be likely to have that kind of Estuary Ruiz type
(10:04):
bump in the next year. Maybe not. Maybe they will,
but probably not.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
In terms of a future war analysis, I basically said,
there's not really any use doing it because none of
these prospects that we gave up are ranked high enough.
Like I think you can look at this sort of
soup of six guys and say that they're probably worth
about one future war, which you know, you could say
that the Padres are giving that up and if the
return was just half a season. Novo hearn and half
(10:33):
of a season e Vermon Loreano, I'd say, yeah, probably
about even, Like, you know, that's this seems like a
you know, a when now move picking up a couple rentals.
But the sort of the wrench in this and where
I think this really comes out in the Padres favor
is that Loriano has a club option next year and
it is a very cheap club option. I believe it's
(10:55):
six and a half million dollars that the Padres would
oh ramone Loreano if they activate it next year. And
you know, at the time that that deal was signed
with the Orioles, I think that, you know, you could
argue that that was you know, probably a pretty even
fair valuation of Vermone Loreano. But he's gone on to
(11:17):
have an unbelievable offensive season, which we'll talk about in
a little bit. But you know, I I think that
the projections of Vermon Loreano are going to be updated
right now. Zip's going into this season projected him as
putting up one point four war next year, and that's
in three hundred and seventy eight played appearances. I think
that that number number will be higher because he's put
(11:39):
up a one forty one w RC plus this season
so far, he's already put up two point two f
four in some.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
That's a real that's a real one forty one WRC plus,
Like the x WOB is exactly the same as the
oh yeah, it's real, it's not it's not something that is.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
Just it's not fake. He has a five to twenty
one slug and I think and I think he has
a like I'm thirty expected slug, Like this is a
real thing, and the fact that the Potters are able
to control that for next year with six and a
half million dollars is a massive win. And it just like,
you know, I think if I were an Ools fan,
I'd be pretty pissed because, you know, this to me
(12:17):
indicates that they don't think that they're going to be
able to use Loriano next year on a winning team,
which means that the Ools, in their very brief period
of competitiveness, have now are now dipping into like a
slight you know, I wouldn't call it a full rebuild,
but they're probably looking more at twenty twenty seven, you know,
will given the fact that they you know, have Jackson
Holiday and I don't know when Adlee Rushman is going
(12:38):
to be a free agent, but they have these guys
for a few more years, so, you know, a little
disappointing for Oils fans, but hey, happy to be on
the on the winning end of this, the receiving end
of it. Let's talk about the players that we're getting back.
So Ryan O'Hearn, Ryan O'Hearn, interesting guy. He's thirty two
(12:58):
years old. He's a lefty batter, first base slash DH
drafted in twenty fourteen by the Kansas City Royals in
the eighth round and ultimately he spent several years with
the Royals and was not good. He was actually a
sub replacement level on his career with the Kansas City Royals,
(13:18):
so much so to the point that in twenty twenty
two he was dfaded by the Royals to make room
for John Do you know which former Padres pitcher on
the Royals roster he was dfaid for?
Speaker 3 (13:33):
This would be an unbelievable poll.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
Who.
Speaker 2 (13:35):
This is the end of twenty twenty two, so this
is November of twenty twenty two, end of the season.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
So during the end of the season he was defade.
Speaker 4 (13:44):
Yeah, and they signed a player.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
They signed a player for twenty twenty three.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
It was in the middle season, right, No, no, no, no,
it was after the season November twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1 (13:54):
Yeah, November of twenty twenty two.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
This would be unbelievable if you got this.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
Well that it's so Royals player.
Speaker 2 (14:04):
Former Padres pitcher, who's a former Padres picture And it's
not Lugo.
Speaker 1 (14:10):
It's not it's not a.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
It's not Waka, it's not Lugo.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
For the is it a starting pitcher?
Speaker 2 (14:18):
It is a. I think he's a former starter. I
don't know if he's since really I think he was.
He was starting with the Padres. I don't I don't
think that he he might still not be starting.
Speaker 1 (14:34):
I've got no no ringing of any bells. I have
no idea.
Speaker 3 (14:38):
Jordan Lyles, Jordan Lyles, I remember that now. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
I was like, if you get this, this would be unbelievable.
But just to give you an idea of like what
the Royals thought of Ryan O'Hearn.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
They defeated him to Jordan Lyles.
Speaker 2 (14:53):
Okay, so uh, The Oriols trade for him for cash considerations.
One of the most prolific player in Major League Baseball history,
cash considerations and basically from the moment he gets to
Baltimore in twenty three and twenty four, he's a plus contributor.
He puts up, I mean, nothing but consistent, one hundred
and seventeen WRC plus in back to back seasons, one
(15:16):
point five f four in back to back seasons. You know,
just on either of three hundred and sixty eight plate
appearances in twenty twenty three, four hundred ninety four played
appearances in twenty twenty four. You know, just solid, dependable,
solid above average hitter, not blowing the lights off of anyone.
(15:37):
And then this season, all of a sudden, Ryan O'Hearn
is really really blossomed. He's one hundred and thirty four
WRC plus, slashing two eighty two, three seventy five four
sixty two. Should also be said that he's playing a
really good first base. According to stat cast, his range
is out of average ninety third percentile, with SIXA at
(16:00):
first base. And uh, look, I mean, in his career
he's a strict platoon bat. You know, he has a
fifty nine WRC plus against lefties and a one oh
nine WRC plus against righty's, and the season's no different.
Although obviously those numbers are much higher overall, one forty
three WRC plus against righty's against a ninety two WRC
(16:23):
plus against lefties.
Speaker 3 (16:26):
What do you make of Ryan O'Hearn, John, So, the thing.
Speaker 1 (16:30):
About him that makes me less nervous is that now
it's this is his third consecutive season where you would
take any of those seasons as like the outcome for
the rest of this season. If he puts up one
hundred and seventeen WRC plus, you know, great, that's perfectly acceptable.
That's a cromulent result. And then now he's had two
straight years of having an ex WOBO over three point fifty.
(16:51):
So also, dope, the thing that makes me a little
bit nervous, which has nothing to do with Ryan O'Hearn,
but has to do with things that have no thing
to do with science and are just weird feelings in
the back of.
Speaker 4 (17:02):
Your head, are.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
What were the last two like similar players to O'Hearn
that we got at the deadline to kind of fill
a hole for me. That's Josh Bell and Mitch Moreland
Mitchie two bags. So what do you remember twenty twenty
when when Mitch Moreland played for the Padres in twenty
twenty he came over having a two hundred and five
(17:25):
WRC plus.
Speaker 4 (17:26):
It was twenty twenty, so it was in like seventy
nine at bats.
Speaker 1 (17:28):
But whatever, what was his line for the Padres.
Speaker 3 (17:34):
His WRC plus for the Padres sure sixty three sixty
Oh okay, pretty clus.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
Josh Bell, So he was at one forty five before
he came over sporting a three oh one three eighty
four four ninety three slash line in a significant four
hundred and thirty seven pas. He had two hundred and
ten played appearances for the Potters in twenty twenty two.
What pray tell me was his WRC.
Speaker 4 (17:59):
Plus fifty eight seventy nine?
Speaker 3 (18:03):
Oh better seventy nine?
Speaker 1 (18:04):
Yeah, I know, seventy nine was one ninety two three
sixteen two seventy so held up by a few walks
that he was receiving. And then I mean, those two
things are you know nothing to do with Ryan Hearn
has you know nothing to do with anything, to be honest,
And he has a longer track record than those two
had at that time, at least in terms of consistency
(18:25):
over the past few years. That being said, I also
have a question of what exactly is his value like
I would, so the hole that he's filling. It seems
now that we've got him and Loreano is first base
slash DH, right, I think that we can both agree
that it seems like Loren is probably going to be
the consistent left fielder. And now he is first base
(18:47):
last slash DH, and so is Gavin Sheets, and so
has Arise and he is basically the same dude as
Gavin Sheets in that they're both left handed hitters. Who
are you know, first base lash d Like, is there
a difference between those two? Is there some time that
you'd want to play those two and not play a rise?
Speaker 4 (19:04):
Probably?
Speaker 1 (19:05):
Not? A rise is like going to play. And so
now you're having to choose between Gavin Sheets and Ryan
O'Hearn and the other one's gonna be a pinch hitter.
Their ex wilbaz are Sheets is three p fifty six
so far this year and then his is three seventy
four so far this year, so very similar players overall.
And then how important is a bench pinch hitter? Probably
(19:28):
not crazy important. So I do wonder about redundancy more
than anything else.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
Yeah, I think this is maybe there's a good.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
Maybe it's good built in redundancy when you like Mitch
Moreland and Josh Bell, somebody falls off and then you
can use the other one.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
Yeah, I don't have a problem with that. I think
this is still a reflection of the original sin of
the Padres roster construction at the beginning of the year
in left field, in that you know Ramon Loreano, he's
good enough to play every day and I don't want to, uh,
(20:03):
you know, this is not some sort of like Demerit
Tordra Monliano. But but ideally you would have another righty
bat who platoons well against lefty pitching, who you could
then swap out for Gavin Sheets or Ryan O'Hearn or
however you're aligned to that day, and you can have
a just true platoon lineup right now on the Padres roster,
(20:24):
the righty platoon DH bat is Jose Glacias, which I
love Jose Glacias as a bench guy, you know, down
the road, but as the main DH against like lefty
pitchers like kind of leaves a lot to be desired.
It's kind of hard to believe that the Padres didn't
have someone that they could find at the beginning of
(20:46):
the year who could fulfill that role and we're sort
of left to go to OMG, it's easiest thing.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
A short sighted platoon, that's usually the easiest thing to get, right, Yeah,
who could hate lefties?
Speaker 2 (20:57):
So you know, again, the Herne situation in a vacuum
is is fine. I think it's just a you know,
a little lot to be desired on the short side
of that platoon. I think in terms of the first
base thing, it's really interesting because ohearne should absolutely be
playing first base over Luisa Rise. I really don't think
there's any way that you can justify it. But I
think that the thinking for the team is you're gonna
(21:20):
play a Rise no matter what against lefties or alrighty's.
And if you were to play O'Hearn at first base
instead of a Rise and you needed to substitute him
later in the game for Jose Glacias, you would essentially
be putting Jose Glacias at second and moving Jake Cronaworth
to first in the middle of the game versus just
(21:41):
I'm sorry, all.
Speaker 1 (21:42):
Of which is the best defensive outcome of all of
the options.
Speaker 4 (21:45):
So that's I agree, A good yeah.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
I agree, but I don't think that the padres, or
at least Mike Schultz views it that way. I think
that they're like, it's the least disruptive if we just
sub out our dhs, which I don't I don't agree
with personally, but like, hey, you know that's grit that's
on Grit Squad Mike Shilt for to decide and not
on these two bozo's and they're on their computers and
(22:09):
their spreadsheets and all that stuff. But you know, we'll
disagree and agree to disagree with Mike Shilt. But I
think that that so far, I mean, who's to say,
We've got two months of the season left. Things could change,
but so far, that's the signal that the team is
given uh in the in the two games that we've
seen so far, and I think that that would be
a mistake going forward.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
Anything else. On Herne before we launched Loreano, the.
Speaker 1 (22:35):
Only thing that I can think is that, so he's
obviously killing it this year, and he was last year too,
and then kind of the year before as well. His
ex wobook con So, like how hard he's he hits
the ball has been pretty consistent the whole time. It's
really just that he's had more like temperance at the plate.
He's struck out fewer times, and he's getting to his
(22:55):
pitches and so he's getting to put the ball in
play more often and since or take a walk. But
so since he's like kind of getting ahead in the count,
he's doing the damage that he's always done. So to me,
that's a positive aspect, Like as long as he's getting
his pitch, he's going to hit it hard, not always
over the fence because he's more of a hard contact,
line drive guy than a home run guy, but enough
(23:17):
to provide damage.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
Yeah, So onto Loreano. So Loreano interesting guy. He just
turned thirty one, which is kind of remarkable because in
my mind he's just sort of a guy who's been
around for a long time, but he's just turned thirty one.
He's a Dominican player, but he came and played college
(23:39):
baseball at Northeastern, Oklahoma A and M University.
Speaker 4 (23:43):
So he was dur in Oklahoma A and M University.
Speaker 1 (23:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (23:46):
I didn't even look up what the mascot is on
that one, but all of that's to say he was
He was taken in the MLB domestic draft rather than
being an international signee, so he was taken in the
sixteenth round by the Houston Astro in twenty fourteen, sort
of when they were at the pinnacle of their prospect
building capability before they built the World Series trash Can
(24:09):
smashing team a few years later. But Loreano was not
thought of very highly in the Astros organization. In fact,
he was not protected at the end of the twenty
seventeen season and was almost undoubtedly going to be selected
in the Rule five draft, And so the Astros traded
(24:30):
him to the Athletics right before the Rule five draft
at the Winter meetings, and they traded him for do
you know which picture? Which relief picture? This is like,
this is an all world strategy question or a trivia question.
It's almost cruel that I'm asking it. It is a
(24:51):
picture named Brandon Bailey. Brandon Bailey, who ended up only
throwing seven and a third innings for the Houston Astros
in the COVID season.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
Boston Bateman or Brandon Butterworth.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
Sorry he's different, Yeah, I know, it's.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Just a Bateman or Brandon Butterworth.
Speaker 3 (25:10):
Another be a literative name.
Speaker 2 (25:13):
Yeah. So that was the extent of Brandon Bailey's major
league career. And so you can say, unfortunately for the Astros,
they lost out on that one. And since he started
playing in the major leagues with the Oakland Athletics, super
interesting guy. I mean in twenty nineteen, in his age
twenty four season, he put up almost four f four
(25:34):
one hundred and twenty seven WRC plus playing good defense.
I think the thing that people know Ramon Loriano the
most for is his arm, because he's had just some
all world, all time throws from the outfield, outfield assists to.
Speaker 3 (25:51):
Get runners out.
Speaker 2 (25:53):
And after Oakland he was traded, he went to New
York for a little bit, to New York Mets, he
went to the Cleveland Guardians, eventually ended up with the
Baltimore Orioles. And when he ended up with the Oils,
he signed this contract that was a two year deal
(26:13):
with the club option as the second year. He was
getting paid four million dollars this season and then next year,
like we said, it is gonna be paid about six
and a half mil. And again at the time, you know,
he was sort of a journeyman. During the end of
his time with the Athletics, was putting up sub one
hundred WRC pluses and then sort of revitalizes his career
(26:34):
a little bit last year in twenty twenty four, ends
the season with a one hundred and eight WRC plus
and like we said, this season, he's just seen this
power explosion. He's slashing two eighty five three point fifty
five twenty one, which again makes him the highest slugger
on the Padres right now.
Speaker 3 (26:54):
And as John mentioned.
Speaker 2 (26:55):
Earlier, three seventy two wOBA, three seventy two expected wOBA.
This is not helium. This is the real deal. This
guy has been hitting the snot.
Speaker 3 (27:05):
Out of the ball. Uh and uh. John, When you
saw the Padres traded for Ramonte Loreano, what was your feeling?
Speaker 1 (27:13):
Thank God? Mostly mostly just that we got a guy
didn't even have to be Vermote Loreano, but hey, a
left fielder was nice to have. Is we had such
obvious holes, and so if we would have gone into
the trade deadline and gotten a reliever and then left
that left field open and the catching spot open, it
would have been absolutely horrible. But you know, he's having
a good year. He is more than O'Hearn kind of
(27:36):
a whoa, this happened out of nowhere. Question mark of
whether it's possible to keep going that being said, his
contract is so reasonable that even if he puts up
around one war next year, it's worth it. So you know,
outfield depth wonderfull. We could play left or right field,
play it adequately. I mean OAA says that it's not
very he's not very spry on his feet. But that
(27:58):
being said, our left field is small, so I'm sure
exactly his play in leftfield at Peco with his arm
would probably be a cremulent defender. Like I said before,
there is a couple things that I want to dig
into that it's kind of peculiar to him that I
don't know exactly how they're going to play out. But
there's one thing that's kind of promising. But before I
go into that, I perseverated on Northeastern Oklahoma A and
(28:21):
M University and I will pay you one American dollar
if you tell me what A and M stands for.
So there's schools that are like Texas A and M.
What does A and M stand for?
Speaker 2 (28:30):
I know that the A is agriculture, fuck, but I
don't know it is M. Okay, So if A is agriculture,
is M manufacturing?
Speaker 1 (28:43):
Ooh close, it's agricultural and mechanical mechanical. He went to
Northeastern Oklahoma Agricultural and Mechanical University.
Speaker 2 (28:55):
WHOA, yeah, because they're supposed to be like technical colleges, right.
Speaker 4 (29:00):
Yeah, I suppose trade school.
Speaker 1 (29:01):
They're in Northeast Oklahoma.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
Okay, So that was the first a little bit.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
That's the first thing that's the break him down more
than agricultural and mechanical. So one thing is he is
not really a split sky. He kind of is overall
in his career. In his career he's put up a
one twenty two WRC plus against lefties, but a one
oh eight WRC plus against arriety, So you know, that's
less than one standard deviation away in terms of quality.
(29:28):
So not somebody that you'd obviously say, let's hit this
guy primarily against lefties, and in fact this year that's
been completely switched to the tune of a WRC plus
against lefties of one to fifteen, so fifteen percent above average,
and a WRC plus against right handed pitchers of one
fifty five with a splitz of three h two average,
three sixty four obp and five fifty six slugging and
(29:49):
a nine to twenty ops overall, So he's just crushing
right handed hitters, I mean right handed pitchers pretty much
been very good on all kinds of pitches, fastball, breaking ball,
off speed, all at least three twenty x L or higher.
Three eighty five on fastballs, three eighty five on breaking ball.
So he's crushing both breaking balls and fastballs and still
being effective against soft speed pitching. And then the one
(30:11):
thing that was interesting to me because he's kind of
changed a little bit of how he's bad, like what
his batted ball profile is, particularly in one individual case
where he's pulling the ball in the air a lot more.
And if you think about pulling the ball in the
air as a right handed hitter in Petco Park, that
tends to be successful. That's like what Higgy did to
(30:33):
have such great numbers at Peco as he would pull
the ball to that, you know, to the left field side,
and he'd be able to instead of hitting doubles, hit
home runs. And so if he continues to do that,
he's pulling the ball in the air to twenty three
point eight percent clip this year compared to a sixteen
point seven percent for Major League as a whole, So
you know, one and a half times as much as
(30:54):
average that should play well in Peco Park, especially in
regards to hitting home runs.
Speaker 3 (31:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
Absolutely, And yeah, I mean, like this is you know
we're going to talk about for me in a second.
We obviously already talked about Bason Miller and JP Sears,
but Loreanno is going to be here next year. And
I think that that's really really important because you know,
the Padres farm system is, as Ben Commons put it,
(31:24):
perpetually thin, and there was no there's no help coming
in left field next season from within the organization, which
means that they would have to sign a free agent
if they did not make this trade or run out
the likes of whatever next year's version of Jason Hayward
is and next year's version of Connor Joe or whatever,
(31:49):
and so to make this trade, which really didn't cost
you a lot, Like, I know, it's six guys, and
I'm sure, I'm sure one of those guys is going
to play in the major leagues. I don't know, you
know who it's gonna be, and I don't know what
kind of impact they're going to have, but one of
those guys will play in the major leagues, you know,
I think being able to shore up your left field
(32:12):
for next season, have a outfield that each of the
three guys has an all star ceiling, Like, that's pretty great.
That's pretty great for twenty twenty six, and you can
hope that by twenty twenty seven the Padres have figured
out some sort of other solution. But you don't have
to worry about the other two spots in the outfield
(32:34):
for the rest of the twenty twenties, which is pretty
cool to say.
Speaker 1 (32:40):
And it's like, our lineup is so much different with
just this little bit of added depth, where the bottom
of the lineup is not just the pitchers are going
to run them over. You know, Ramon Loriano, he might
do damage. Ryan o'harnt, he might do damage. And then
we'll talk about for me in the next episode. But
for me, at least two fifty batting average for his
(33:01):
whole career, he'll you know, get a single once in
a while out of a ninth slot. But whatever, it's
it's it's just this depth problem that we had and
you could pitch around guys if you wanted to. Now
you kind of can't because there's there's damage coming at
the bottom of the order at least once in a while.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
Ramon Loreano is taking at bats in place of Bryce Johnson,
Like that's just that you want to set up the trade.
Speaker 1 (33:22):
Incredible, just so you know he's betting three thirty or whatever.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
But yeah, don't look at that bat. But hey, he's
good and he could bunt with the rest of them.
So and look Bryce Johnson as the fifth outfielder on
this team. Awesome, great, I love that. But as you're
starting everyday left fielder. It's some people were saying on
like July twenty seventh, like, maybe we don't need to
trade for a left fielder.
Speaker 3 (33:46):
Look at bjuh. Yeah, I don't know about.
Speaker 4 (33:49):
Wob that would have been yea disaster in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (33:53):
Absolute disaster. So yeah, I mean I love this trade.
It's just a classic, like when now trade that. I
think it's so much more fun to be on this
side of it than to be on the other side
of it. So good on aj Preller, good use of
his assets. Anything else before we move on to our
next trade.
Speaker 1 (34:13):
No, this is the one that, like Phil holes, it
makes you extends the lineup. This is the this was
the home run trade. If it would have only been
this trade, I also would have been perfectly acceptable of
the of the deadline deals, but new other players are
gonna be help
Speaker 2 (34:29):
Too, So we had the bold trade of Mason Miller
Jpcars for debrees, we had the beautiful trade of the
of of Hern and Loreano for the six pack, and
coming up on our next episode, we have the bewildering
trade of of for Mean for Colok and Bergert, so
(34:52):
stick around for that in the next episode, but until then,
For John Pracota, I'm Raypie Canter and we will see
you next time.
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