Run, Padres, Run!

Craig Elsten and Raphie Cantor (Chris Reed is on the IL) breakdown a winning Padres homestand against the Royals and Nats before diving into the Padres peculiar first half, which saw stellar pitching, not-so-stellar offense, a conundrum on the basepaths.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Padres hot Tub is a listener supported podcast. It's a
community that has grown and grown. As you'll hear at
the top of the show. It's a community that gets
together to celebrate at Petco Park Big Wins, and you
can be a part of it. Patreon dot com slash
Padres hot Tub. Just over the last week or two,
I've run into folks who say, you know, I miss

(00:22):
you on the radio, Craig. You know, I wish it
sound to say, hey, show's right here. You know, shows
right here, And if you want to support.

Speaker 2 (00:29):
It you can.

Speaker 1 (00:31):
Watching us on YouTube is supporting us, Thank you. Listening
to us on the free feed is supporting us.

Speaker 2 (00:36):
Thank you.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
We appreciate it. However, take it to another level and
in doing so, enter a community that you might find
gives you a lot more back than you had to
pay to get in. Rayfie at patreon dot com slash
Padres hot Tub.

Speaker 2 (00:51):
Yeah, we had forty four of our patrons and their
familiars in the suite in the Western Metal Building this
week weekend really just truly a remarkable day, not only
because the Padres one, but because we got to connect
with so many people who make this community special and
I mean, we all got a chance to say something

(01:13):
after the game, and Craig, you said it in your speech.
This is a community, and so what you're buying in
is not just helping support the show. You're buying into
something truly special that you know, is open three hundred
and sixty five days a year for Padres fans talk
about baseball, to talk about a lot of other things.
I know we talked about our golf rounds, of which

(01:34):
we got to play together on Monday, which was fantastic.
But you know, you can find topics of anything under
the sun and Padres fans to connect with a patreon
dot com slash Padres hotel.

Speaker 1 (01:45):
Yeah, getting entry into our discord is what you get,
even at the lowest level at five dollars. That gives
you access to the free shows that we do for
patrons only, our postgame shows, our group therapy shows like
the one that we will do on Thursday. You get
access to be on those shows. Patreon dot com slash Padres.
Check it out for yourself, give yourself a little early

(02:06):
summer's gift at patreon dot com slash Padres. Welcome to

(02:34):
the Padres hotep everybody, Craig Elston Rayfie Kanter no Chris
read today. Chris sends his regards horizontally. The unfortunately UH
softball star that he is UH put his body on
the line for his team on Monday night. He made

(02:55):
not the ultimate sacrifice, thank goodness, but one along the way,
which was to tweak his back. So can't be upright
right now. Chris sends his regards. He has sent along
some discussion points that we can discuss and probably infuriate
him because we're not, you know, Chris, to bring it

(03:15):
out and articulate it. But Chris, hope you get well
very soon, my friend. Beautiful to see you and your
lovely wife Jesse at the suite on Saturday night. Speaking
of which Rafie and we mentioned it in the ad
on the Free Feed as well. But what a night
on Saturday night taking Padres Hot Tub for the second
straight year to Petco Park for a suite game, this

(03:36):
time upgrading Western Metal Company Building. I'll tell you what.
That's a bucket list item if you're a Padres fan
to watch a game from a Western Metal suite. There's
really something special about being out on that balcony being
in play, you know. Seven the foul pole and really
right there at the edge of the suite, on the

(03:56):
corner of the suite like this side foul this side,
our side, Fair home Run. Incredible, incredible and incredible to
see Rafie, how our community continues to grow and support
one another.

Speaker 2 (04:11):
Yeah, just shout out to UH, to Chris Reid and
to other Chris who I think is now known as
the artist formerly known as Kim Possible. I think he
also goes by Kim Plausible now on the discord. So
shout out to Chris for putting together not just the
Sweet but also we had a wonderful raffle going during

(04:33):
the Sweet game, so that every inning there were like
three or four items getting auctioned off, signed baseball, signed
baseball cards, bobbleheads, you pot, Padre's hot tub merge, terrible
Padre's meme, swag like it was just the like it was.
It was fantastic. We use those wonderful raffle funds to
buy some sweet Sweet try tip nachos from Sweet Seaside

(04:56):
Market and a few other things. So yeah, like I
said on the pre roll, forty four people out in
the suite. Just fantastic. And I had never watched the
game from the Western Metal Building. Uh, and there was
something I was turning to I think analog man uh
and his wife. I can't remember exactly who I was
talking to, but there's it almost feels like you're in

(05:17):
Ebitts Field in Brooklyn in like the forties, because you're
like you're built in and you're literally you look down
and you are overhanging the field like you are you
could fall into fair territory and it you know, we
had a phenomenal view of Fernando Tazzis Junior's three run
home run, where like the apex of the home run

(05:38):
was at our eye level, and once we knew that,
like we were like the first people to react in
the stadium because like we knew like coming off of oh,
that's that is going over the fence. So uh yeah,
I mean, we're we're really lucky to have the community
that we have and this annual tradition is one of

(05:59):
my favorite days of the year. We had folks travel
hundreds of miles from out of state, from the very
top of California all the way through the Central Valley.
So yeah, just thank you everyone for coming out. It
was such a wonderful thing and just underscores what a
special community we have.

Speaker 1 (06:16):
Yeah, it really is, I mean our Sacramento trip. But
we saw some familiar faces back at the suite on
Saturday night as well. But every time we get together,
we get further affirmed as to you know, the incredible
direction that padres Hota is going. A couple of very
quick bookkeeping notes, especially for our patrons. No banter once

(06:38):
again today. Yes, that's two weeks in a robot. As
we told you, Chris is down and out, and we've
got a little bit of a delay because Rafe's got
a work thing tonight and tomorrow. Group therapy will be tomorrow,
hopefully with Chris and I maybe just me. We'll see
how Chris feels. But Raf he can't make it because

(07:00):
poker Face Season two, Episode ten debuts Thursday, June twenty
sixth on Peacock. Go watch it, Go scream it, Go
watch it again, It'll say, written by Ray V Cantor.

Speaker 2 (07:13):
It will episode two ten, The Big Pump, my first
written by credit on TV, which I'm very very honored
and thrilled to. I don't know, it's kind of surreal.
It crept up on me really in this weird way.
Where it was like looming in the head, my head
for so long, and then things have been so busy,
and I got to go down to San Diego and

(07:34):
go to a couple of padres games and YadA, da YadA,
and then I come back, I'm like, oh my god,
my episode's on tomorrow, which I'm just I'm so thrilled.
Its stars Method Man from Wu Tang Clan, Jason Ritters
in it, Patty Harrison, who I think is maybe one
of the funniest people in America right now, Natasha Lazio
I'm trying to think. I mean, you'll see some familiar faces,

(07:55):
and of course Natasha Leon's in it. So directed by
Clea Duval, actress who folks may remember and recognize. But yeah,
it was just an absolute treat. I haven't actually seen
the episode. Craig has seen it. I have not seen it.

Speaker 1 (08:10):
I have seen the episode. In fact, here's a funny
easter egg if you pay very close attention to the credits.
Also listed in the same credit as writers assistant is
Raphael Cante.

Speaker 2 (08:22):
I know, so it's my alter ego.

Speaker 1 (08:24):
So you've got Rafie and Raphaele working on the same episode,
and I assume one side of you helped the other
because it was writer's assistant precisely.

Speaker 2 (08:32):
Yeah, I went through something of a metamorphosis over the
course of the of course of the season, where I
had the it's like Sean Parker and the social network,
where he's like drop the the just Facebook, it's like
drop the raphile just Rafie. So yeah, but yeah, Craig's
not kidding though, if you can watch it, it helps tremendously.

(08:54):
You know, there's no word on if there's gonna be
another season or not, so you know, any every minute streamed,
as they say these days, helps us. So thanks to
the community for helping out there.

Speaker 1 (09:07):
And I can't wait for you to have all the
fun things that happened tomorrow with the episode coming out,
and yes, I've seen it and it's good and it's funny.
And as he mentioned, a major character is introduced, so
Rapie had the job of bringing that major character into
the poker Face universe. And it sets up what's gonna
happen in the final two episodes of the year. So

(09:28):
really important episode. Go check it out. Okay, bookkeeping over, However,
as we begin the baseball part, we aren't to the
podres yet. And quite unfortunately. The one sad thing from
Saturday Sweet Night was hearing Alex Miniac announce the death
of Scott Miller right before the game. And I did

(09:51):
not know that Scott had passed. He had passed earlier
that day. You know, we hadn't been on like social
I'm not on social media the way I used to
to be anyway, So I found out because Alex announced
it and I saw Scott's face up on the JumboTron,
and right before the anthem, I had to go, like
sit on a couch in the back of the suite

(10:12):
and have a think and you know, have a bit
of a cry because Scott Miller is a guy I've
known boy for well over a quarter of a century
and used to be in the press box together all
the time, down on the field all the time, one
of those guys that was always there, even when he

(10:34):
was writing for The New York Times. Scott lived in Carlsbad,
and so he would be at Podres games like regularly.
You know, someone else would be coming in and he
might be there to write about the other team, but
he would still be there. And then it was a
great joy for him that the Padres starting in four
with Petco Park, got good enough that he could sometimes

(10:54):
be in Petco Park or be at a Padres game
to write about the Padres instead of just being there
to write a about the other team. But just one
of the brightest, funniest, most affable people I've ever met
in the business, vibrant, an incredible author that's wrote many,
many books, including one that just was released a few

(11:14):
weeks ago called Skipper, Why Managers Matter and they Always will.
While Annie and I were on ninety seven to three
and this is it's just a gut punch, the two
guests we had on the most often in our fifteen
months were Bryce Miller and Scott Miller. And today they're

(11:38):
both dead.

Speaker 2 (11:40):
That's crazy.

Speaker 1 (11:41):
Yeah, today they're both dead and gone. And cancer sucks.
And Scott had been fighting it so hard, and Bryce
had been fighting it so hard and so elegantly. And
to have those two bright lights and incredible voices and
eloquent pens or keyboards, you know, silenced. It's an absolute killer.

(12:07):
And I just pass along to his family my condolences,
but to the baseball world in general, because we lost
a great one in Scott Miller.

Speaker 2 (12:18):
Yeah. Bleacher Report Who'scott contributed for did a great write up,
and also there's links to some of his most notable works.
So if you're not familiar with Scott's work and you
want to read some columns, just some absolutely phenomenal ones.
And you know, for Padres fan specifically, he wrote a
great one in May of twenty twenty two for the

(12:38):
New York Times. You might remember Manny Machado sitting in
front of a chessboard. The articles titled the Third Baseman's
Gambit and yeah, I mean it's just like it obviously
is not just a you might recall that is the
year that Manny tore it up and then subsequently got
a contract extension, so he was off to a hot start.

(12:58):
But really just kind of in the evolution of Manny
Machado as you know, the player who came to the
Padres sporting something of a bad reputation to you know,
team leader, team clubhouse and you know, presumably going to
be going into the Hall of Fame with the Padres
hat on, like just tracking his evolution, really good piece.
So yeah, just thoughts and Praiser's family of course, just horrible,

(13:25):
horrible news.

Speaker 1 (13:27):
Yeah, and you know, again this is somebody I knew personally,
so I just wanted to make sure that we had
at the very top of the show how important Scott
was and what an incredible dude he was and how
much he'll be missed. Okay, some headline, here's what's going
to happen. We've got some headlines to what's going on
with the team. We'll look at the last two series.

(13:49):
Padres went four and two at home. Not bad, pretty
damn important, I would say. Rafie, coming off the road
trip they had of two and five, and as dispiriting
as it was to lose three out of four in La,
to lose two out of three the way they did
in Arizona, would swear as blowing the series essentially with

(14:10):
his blown save. It wasn't the prettiest you know, four
and two that you've ever seen in the history of
the world. But I don't give a shit there. Four
and two. I mean like they needed that.

Speaker 2 (14:25):
They desperately needed it, and you know, I think it's
just huge to win two series back to back after
dropping the openers in each series and coming back and rallying.
And you know, we saw it in the Royal series
yet again, where the Padres after getting it up for
the Dodgers and winning a crucial game Game four, come
home and immediately, you know, kind of shut down and

(14:48):
are have that classic Dodgers hangover that we've discussed in
Game one against the Royals, but to rally both for
the sweet game and for the the OMG walkoff game
on Sunday, and then likewise, after getting kind of punched
in the mouth by the Nationals and by former Padres
products c j Abrams and James Wood on Monday night,

(15:09):
after Stephen Kollik had a big inning to rally back
and win two crucial games. I mean, it means the world.
It means the world for the Padres as they're heading
on the road again to what is certainly going to
be a very hot and sweaty road trip. But you know,
with I think some important changes coming to the team,

(15:30):
both in lineup, in bullpen construction that I'm sure we'll get.

Speaker 1 (15:33):
Into absolutely, So, I don't know, let's start by talking
about the two series and then we can get into
the kind of general stuff that's going on with the team.
The Royal series starts with a loss, as you wrote
into our menu, Dodger hangover loss.

Speaker 2 (15:52):
Yeah, Yeah, I.

Speaker 1 (15:53):
Mean, definitely a little bit. They did come back in
the game. They Ralli didn't put up enough run if
I remember right, to win that game. But they got
off to a terrible start, right.

Speaker 2 (16:05):
Yeah, I'm pulling it up right now. But they they
lost six five in that game, So do I have
that right? Yeah? Yeah, yeah. So you know Nick Pavetta
getting blown up just a little bit. You know, obviously
he came back today and had a fantastic start, but
his line on that game was four and two thirds

(16:26):
six hits, two homers, four earned runs, two walks, only
three strikeouts. So you know, the bullpen having to do
some mop up duty and holding their own. But it
just they came back a little bit at the end.
But it was just one of those things where for
most of the game the offense felt rather an emic.

(16:48):
So even though it was one of those games where okay,
padre score five runs, you know, falling behind early, this
is you know, this team sometimes just feels like it
gets caught on the back foot in those games, and
you know, a two or three run deficit, or certainly
a four run deficit can feel insurmountable. So it was
good to see them battle back you know, taking advantage

(17:09):
of some poor fielding and you know, reaching on airs
and stuff like that. But you know, unfortunately they just
didn't have the length from Paveta to shield what was inevitably,
you know, a bullpenal at the end of the day.

Speaker 1 (17:23):
Well, it was an atom well and I mean, this
is a game that felt very stingy because initially you're
down for nothing. Pavetta gives up the three run homer
to India. You feel like you're kind of out of it.
But then they come all the way back to four
to four, and now it's four to four at home
late innings, Adam's on the mound. You know Suarez's appeal

(17:44):
to suspension, He's available. You feel like the game's in
your hands. And he came in and struggled once again.
Jason has a much much better routing on Tuesday to
redeem his home stand somewhat, but fact remains the Jason
Adam of the first six to eight weeks of the season.

(18:05):
Rafie was a guy who came in and was just
an automatic shutdown, Like how many outs do you need?
Half of them will be strikeouts. You know, he will
come in and do the job, and the Adams since
then has been leaky. A hit, a hit, a walk,
a walk, sometimes a double play. Sometimes he's really good,

(18:27):
sometimes he's not. And the era is still under two,
but the overall efficiency has declined.

Speaker 2 (18:38):
Certainly, certainly, And you know, it's interesting with Jason Adam.
I think that we've seen something of a reshuffling in
terms of the order of bullpen's supremacy. I guess you
could say, you know, I think that I don't have
the pitch counts in front of me from Tuesday night's game,
but I did think it was quite interesting that after

(19:01):
pitching last night, both Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Marahone are
called on in today's game to close things out and
Jason Adam not seen. So, you know, I think that
that was a deliberate choice from rubiniebl and Mike Schildt.
I think the more a home thing in the ninth
inning just simply stacks up to your face in abrams

(19:24):
and woods in the bottom of or in the top
of the ninth inning. Excuse me, you're gonna want to
left e out there. But going with Estrata in the
eighth inning, which has almost always been Jason adams domain
and after especially Estrada through sixteen pitches last night was
a little bit surprising to me. But I just think
is a recognition from the coaching staff that you know,

(19:46):
certainly Adams needs a break and perhaps also that he's
lost a step.

Speaker 1 (19:52):
The number is just to back up what I said.
In his first twenty five innings covering April and May,
Jason Adam allowed fifteen hits total. In the month of June,
he pitched twelve and two thirds innings so far and
has allowed seventeen hits in the month, and his whip

(20:13):
month to month was one point zero one point one
eight one point sixty six so far in June. So
when I said he's been leaky, I think I was
right on point with that description. He has been leaky.
And also he leads all Major league relievers in appearances.

(20:34):
So I wouldn't be mad at an atom injured list
ten day appearance going into the All Star Break. I
wouldn't be mad at that at all.

Speaker 2 (20:50):
I wouldn't either. You know, we were talking with some
folks to work with the organization before the Sweek game,
and that was something that they said if they could do,
if they could do one thing, it would be to
give Adam some time off. And you know, I think
what you're really seeing, especially lately, is him losing just
a little bit of the command of that strike zone.

(21:11):
You know, when Adam was with the Royals and the
Blue Jays and the Cubs early in his career, he
was a high strikeout but high walk guy. And then
he goes to Tampa Bay, and Tampa Bay as they
are wont to do, just fixes him. You know, he
keeps the strikeouts up, He's got double digit strikeout per nine's,
but the walks drop from you know, four or five

(21:32):
walks per nine innings to two point four to two
and twenty twenty two three point three one in twenty
twenty three. Again, that number stays under three in twenty
twenty four. But so far this season, Jason Adam four
walks per nine, which is just not going to cut
it when you are pitching in as much leverage situations

(21:53):
as he is and you can't be giving guys free passes.
So I don't know, Man, to me, that just screams
of like he's tired. And you know, the question for
me is if you're making that move for Adam the il,
who's your corresponding move, Are you bringing Sean Reynolds back
or is there is there someone else in the tank.

Speaker 1 (22:16):
I believe the team is bringing Reynolds back for Bergert
and I ling Bergert with the forearm, and then they're
going to send out Reynolds for Waldron Monday in Philadelphia.
If I read Kevin A. C.

Speaker 2 (22:31):
Wright, oh wow, I didn't see that Burger move. I'm sorry.

Speaker 1 (22:35):
Berger took it off the right forearm last night and
had to leave the game Tuesday night. Whenever you're listening
to this on Wednesday, June twenty fifth, my son's fourteenth birthday.
By the way, shout out James Elston fourteen years old.
James coming home from the Philippines tomorrow. But yeah, so

(22:57):
that's that situation about that Saturday's sweet game five to
one Padres win, obviously punctuated by the Fernando Tatist junior
three run homer that he needed more than anything was
needed ever, ending the longest homerless rout of his career.
But I think the real walkaway story from that one

(23:17):
is dominant Dylan six and two thirds innings from Dylan cease.
They could have potentially pushed him for seven, but they didn't,
but Dylan Sees did Dylan Seese things that you kind
of expect him to do in a home start against
Kansas City in the middle of the year, and the
Padres need it, and they did it. He got his
third win of the year.

Speaker 2 (23:37):
Yeah, we were all quite surprised when Dylan Cees returned
to the game in the seventh inning. I believe he
was either at ninety eight pitches or he'd already crossed
one hundred. He maybe he was at one oh four
or something like that, and he tried it back out
to the hill and we were all kind of talking
to each other in the suite, and I chalk it

(23:59):
up to, you know, a Dylan wants to be out
there like that's that's clearly evident. He's he is, you know,
cut from the same cloth as his landlord, Joe Musgrove,
and you know he's going to be pushing to be
out there for every appearance. But I mean also like
Dylan's gonna walk here and he knows that, and he

(24:21):
he's gonna want to get his numbers down as much
as possible and get that inning count up as much
as possible because you know, like we've talked about numerous
times in the show, Dylan's underlying metrics on the season
so far not terrible. He hasn't gotten great bat at
ball results, you know, which at the end of the day,
it's a results based business. But the one thing that

(24:41):
he theoretically can control, assuming his arm allows it, is
getting his innings load up. Because Dylan has historically always
been healthy. And so if Dylan can hit free agency
consistently throwing one hundred and eighty innings or more in
a season kind of you know, you know, unless he
turns into uh, you know, Rich Hill or Austin Gomber

(25:02):
or something the rest of the season, it's kind of
not gonna matter. Like he's going to get paid because
those innings, as we have seen this season on the
padres super super valuable.

Speaker 1 (25:14):
All Right, quick flash opinion poll. I'm gonna go three
two one, and you're gonna tell me what team is
gonna sign Dylan sees in the off season. Okay, here
we go three two one. Matt Dodgers, Oh yeah, la.

Speaker 2 (25:35):
Yeah, I don't look at the numbers.

Speaker 1 (25:38):
They'll just be like, wait a second, hang on, this
guy throws ninety eight and his elbow hasn't exploded.

Speaker 3 (25:45):
His whole career.

Speaker 1 (25:47):
We could take him throw one oh two for a
good year or two before his elbow explodes.

Speaker 2 (25:52):
Let's get him well. And I will say they they
took his mirror image Blake Snell right and paid him and.

Speaker 1 (26:02):
Glass now who's his cousin? You know said twice removed.
But they can have an entire rotation of all stuff
plus all random ass diletant players that can all show
up in August and they don't care. La doesn't care
because look at him right now with rablue Ski and

(26:23):
Sour and Chumpy and Bumpy and and then Yamamoto, they
still have the best record. They don't care. Yeah, they'll
save the elite pitching for the end when they need
the elite pitching at the end. They literally don't care.
They can get away with it the whole year advantages
when you have a five million dollar payroll.

Speaker 2 (26:41):
Okay, I will hang on. I just want to say
some other shadow teams for Dylan Ce's they're out there.
We talked about them finally spending money with Raffy Devers.
But the Giants, yeah, you know, they're still only like
thirteenth in payroll. Yeah, Cubs are up there. I talked
about the Mets, and the other thing I would just
say is Atlanta Braves. He's from Marriott to Georgia, and

(27:04):
you know that is a i'd say, a shadow team
who is looking to compete in an increasingly competitive division.
So don't think it's going to be for us though.

Speaker 3 (27:16):
No.

Speaker 1 (27:17):
So that was Saturday, and then Sunday was a really
really clutch victory. Down to nothing, bottom of the seventh inning,
bases loaded, two outs, a Glacias pinch hitter against the
righty reliever Lucas r. Seg comes up with the two
run single to tie the game. Comes up with the

(27:38):
relay throw in the top of the ninth to nail
the go ahead run at home plate, perfectly thrown by
Merril to get to him. But a Glaciers add the longer,
tougher part of that play and he made it perfectly
and then gets the walk off single after Xander Bilgart's
got the double that put runners at second and third

(27:59):
and put the Royals and the pressure cooker in the endfield.
In Iglesias gets the worm burner that wit can't you know,
jump throw to home fast enough and the Padres pull
out that game three to two. That one felt to
me like one of those. And I think today's game
Wednesday's game is another one of those games that you

(28:20):
put on the other side of the ledger of if
the Padres make the playoffs by a game, a game
or two. This was one of those games that got
them to the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (28:32):
Absolutely, and I also think both Today's game and more
specifically Sunday's game are emblematic of when the Padres are
working right. Those are the types of games that they
win the way that this team has decided to approach
the game offensively. From a base running standpoint, these are

(28:53):
clear patterns and trends that we've seen that will discuss
later in the show. You know, they are a contact
at all costs teams, even if that that that cost
is hitting the ball all that hard, frankly, but in
situations where you already have runners on base, that strategy
can pay off. And I think jose Galasias is also

(29:14):
the type of player that encapsulates that as being a
contact guy. And I do just want to shout out,
I know we had a postgame show that day, but
you know, we saw something that day that we hadn't
really seen, which was that jose Galasis came in as
a pinch hitter for Jake Croninworth. It was playing the
platoon matchup, which was something that you know previously. You know,

(29:38):
certainly we don't have anyone that's replacing Gavin Chets really
that frequently in the lineup. But you know, I think
Mike Shult had been a little bit reticent to replace
Jake Croninworth, but to bring in jose galasias Uh to
face the lefty and and get that base hit just massive.

Speaker 1 (29:56):
Oh, Mike Schultz decided all options are on the table
now in terms of change the lineup and changing everything.
But we'll get to that a little bit more. Trying
to keep it rolling here. But two out of three
against the Royals, and as the Padres take two out
of three against the Nationals, yes, we will have to
take at least a moment to relitigate the one Soto
trade for the five hundred and fourteenth time. But I

(30:18):
would like to note that the Padres just completed twenty
six games in twenty seven days, and to win the
last series of that and the last two games of
that series, I think that's again low key kind of huge.

(30:40):
This is a taxed team and a bullpen that had
leaked a lot really came to play the last two nights,
in particular on Tuesday night when Ryan Berger went down
with the forum injury. Morehone comes in, covers two winnings,
Adam comes in in the sixth thing, you know, Estrada

(31:01):
comes in. Everyone got their job done. And then on Wednesday,
Paveta covered seven. But once again it you know, it
got to the end and everyone got the job done.
So some elite relief work to close this out at
a time when the naysayers and the and the inhabitants
of Duomerville and our patreon would one hundred percent be saying,

(31:21):
oh those are the games the bullpen's going to blow.

Speaker 2 (31:25):
One hundred percent. And I also just want to point
out for folks that it's it was twenty six games
in twenty seven days, and with today's win, they secured
going thirteen and thirteen in that twenty six game stretch, So.

Speaker 1 (31:40):
In advance, this was survive one hundred percent.

Speaker 2 (31:44):
They treaded water, which was all that they needed to
do for this time. And uh yeah, I'm sorry, I
was just I was I was counting the winds in
my head. So I didn't really hear the last end
of your comment, but just something about the bullpen blowing up,
potentially saying.

Speaker 1 (32:00):
So oh, just that at the end of twenty six
and twenty seven, those would be the days you'd expect he's.

Speaker 3 (32:06):
Ridden the bullpen too hard. You know it, Hey, you
know these guys are gonna fall apart. That's when we're
gonna lose. We're gonna lose at the end of those
long drays when when those guys just don't have any bullets.

Speaker 1 (32:16):
No, they had all the bullets. They were asked to
go Superman on Tuesday, they did it. Turned around. Adrian
Morehone pitched the ninth like a boss on Wednesday Afternoon Lockdown.
This dude is making money hand over fist week by
week this season.

Speaker 2 (32:34):
Yeah, yeah, I mean, the Potterets are in a fantastic
position for when Robert Suarez inevitably opts out of his
contract at the end of the season, because assuming that
Jason Adam can recover and uh, you know, Adrian Morihone
being you know, his mirror image. Other option where you
have a righty, lefty threat that is locked in for

(32:54):
the next Adam certainly for the next season after this,
and Marahon for two seasons after this as well to
handle any situations in high leverage that the Padres may face.
And you still have a strata. You know, we we
sometimes talk about him, sometimes don't, but like Yuqi Mat Suey.
You know, he's been walking a fair amount of dudes,

(33:15):
but his stuff has looked really good this year and
as a sixth inning option consistently. You know, I think
that in terms of the two believers that we're paying
four million dollars a year, you have Yuki Mat Suey,
who you know can pitch and middle relief and and
pitch in middle levaged situations, and you have Wandy Peralta,
who is the human white flag. So uh, you know,

(33:39):
I think going forward like we're losing one of our
horsemen of the Apocalypse at the end of the season,
but we're retaining like three and if you want to
count Matt Suey, we're still gonna have four. Uh. And
then whatever help we can get from Sean Reynolds, uh
and the branden Nets and the David Morgan's of the world,
et cetera, et cetera. I'm not too worried about the
pot bullpen for the future.

Speaker 1 (34:03):
The Padres wind up taking two out of three. They
closed things out with a one to nothing win. It's
the team's thirteenth shutout victory of twenty twenty five eighty
games into the season. That was discord sourced, so I
would like to double check it for sure, but I'm
pretty sure our discord was right. So thirteen shutouts in

(34:27):
eighty games for this team. The story of the first
half is Padre's elite pitching overcoming an offense that is
underpowered and after early surge, really struggled for about two months.

Speaker 2 (34:47):
Yeah, I mean, you know, kind of bury the lead
a little bit. But today's game was game eighty of
the season, so you know we won't we won't have
a main show before we crossed the eighty one game
threshold on so you know, this is kind of our
unofficial halfway checkpoint of the show, and we can really
look at, you know, how the team is stacked up

(35:09):
in the major categories, and you know, I think starting
with the good, Like you said, Craig, you can slice
it up however you want. Padres a just a good
pitching team. You know, they they have a top ten
e er. Three point sixty seven is an entire staff.
The fifth is twelfth in the league. But I think
some very crucial points two twenty nine batting average allowed

(35:31):
that's fourth in baseball, three sixty seven slug allowed that's
fifth in baseball. And eight point eight one strikeouts per
nine innings that's eighth in baseball. And yeah, you know,
they walk a fair amount of guys, and you know,
there's definitely some tiding up to be done. And unfortunately,
it's something we're not really accustomed to really in San Diego,

(35:52):
is that the pitching staff has kind of fallen victim
to some shoddy defense at times over the course of
the season. But in terms of the jobs that they're
meant to do, they're doing phenomenal and they've absolutely kept
this team in the game this season.

Speaker 1 (36:07):
Now, Monday's game, the game that the Padres lost, the
Nationals took care of business and CJ. Abrams had three
hits and three runs scored and James Wood had three
hits and three runs scored in a three run homer
he drove in four. So let's just get this out
of the way. James Wood is a great player who's

(36:31):
gonna be a great player and is probably gonna hit
three hundred plus home runs in his big league career,
and that's a lot. It's a lot of homers. He's young,
he's talented, and we all knew, every knowledgeable Padres fan
knew when the Wan Soto trade was made in twenty

(36:52):
twenty two that the guy that hurt was James Wood.
That was the one guy We were like, can we
do the trade without Wood? And like, I think it's
a fair question, a weird one, one that we're not
going to really do, But like, would you rather marrill
Er would as the guy you'd want to build around

(37:16):
going forward? Meryl's got a lot going for him. He's
not gonna hit half the homers James Wood probably hits
in his big league career, like he probably won't. Wood's
got real power, he's still young, Like he's gonna be
really really good.

Speaker 2 (37:32):
But okay, but.

Speaker 1 (37:39):
The Padres were trying to win the World Series in
twenty twenty two, and they went to get Juan Soto
to do it, and they went to the National League
Championship Series where if Mike Clevenger and Sean and I
are weren't such assholes blowing a four to nothing lead
and a six four lead. They who knows, they might

(38:02):
have gone to the World Series. They were trying to
win the World Series in twenty twenty three, and it
blew up in their face and they had to pivot.
And then they tried to win the World Series in
twenty twenty four. And by all the words of every
Dodger that's ever spoken into a podcast mic in history,
the Padres were the second best team in Major League

(38:26):
Baseball in twenty twenty four. Now, let me tell you
that in that same time, the Nationals won seventy one,
seventy one and seventy one games. Okay, this year they're
on track to win seventy one games or thereabouts. And

(38:48):
Mackenzie Gore is about to enter his arbitration two season.

Speaker 3 (38:54):
C J.

Speaker 1 (38:54):
Abrams is about to enter his arbitration one season. You
know what the Nationals might need to do as a
team that's out of it and sucks and could be
one of the few sellers at the deadline, they might
need to trade Mackenzie Gore. Gore might be a huge

(39:15):
guy to move on the deadline. Eventually, they're gonna have
to trade c J. Abrams. My point is the Nationals
are blowing this window. James Wood might be a Hall
of Famer. I don't know. We knew he was the
one who got away. We traded for a guy who's
a for sure Hall of Famer. He didn't get us

(39:35):
across the promised land finish line. But honestly, Rafie all
of the retrospective revisionist history.

Speaker 3 (39:44):
Oh the Padres blew it.

Speaker 1 (39:46):
Imagine where they would be blah blah blah sliding doors.
I'm sorry, but fuck that. They made the moves they
had to make to try and make a win for
a dying in his final years, and they didn't quite
get there. But did the Nationals turn into the super
team because of our mistake? No, they're biffing it and

(40:10):
they're gonna biff this whole thing.

Speaker 2 (40:13):
Yeah. I think that that being in the seventy wins
three seasons in a row is the crucial point. Craig,
and I think again, the Soto trade is so fascinating
for so many reasons because we get that second knock
on trade with the Yankees, and you know, we always
talk about the contributions of Michael King to last year's
team and what we've got so far from him this year.

(40:35):
But literally, where with this team sentenced? I never thought
I would offer utter where would this team be without
Randy Vasquez this season? Like truly? I mean he has
soaked up innings that ought to have belonged to you,
Darvish and Matt Walgern who have not been there taken,
and he has, for better or worse, succeeded in that endeavor. Unfortunately,

(40:57):
the Nationals are in a position where they signed even
Strasburg to a disastrous contract that is no one's fault.
You know, he had a horrible career ending injury, and
I also understand if you win a World Series you
signed that guy to a deal's the risk you take.
And they've been in the continuously poor position of ownership

(41:18):
has been trying to sell for some time, so they're
trying to keep cost slow, and so even though they
have this young core, they're not doing what teams that
are actually trying to win ought to do, which is
go out and spend money that the young core enables
you to spend. So I do think it is it
is a little bit more complex than to just say

(41:39):
that all the Nationals are just blowing and I think
there are some sort of extenuating circumstances around that, but
all of that to be set. All that said, I
was at the game on Monday night. I was at
Fernando Tatis Junior Bibblehead Flip Knight, and I saw James
Wood hit a four hundred and twenty seven foot piss
missile into the foul pole and I laughed, like I

(42:02):
literally laughed out loud. And in that moment, I felt
no amount of regret because we took our shot and
we and and I'm actually happy in some ways that
you know, would would I have a good amount of
shot in Freuda if if James would turned out to
be a complete and total dot, of course, But in

(42:22):
some ways I'm like, oh yeah, that is like that,
like it makes the trade all the more interesting, you
know what I mean, and all like, and I still
think to get three bites at the Apple with Juan Soto,
who is a generational talent. I mean again, I feel
like we've had this conversation a but jillion times. It's

(42:43):
worth it. And also think about the fact that you know, C. J.
Abrams is looking like a good ballplayer. We could definitely
use that one thirty seven WRC plus on the team.
He's also maybe the worst defensive shortstop in baseball. And
you know, I don't think he was gonna play second
base with the Pod. So there's that. Robert Halse of
the third is you know, got called up recently but

(43:05):
has basically been nowhere to be found. Harlan Sosuna. I
don't know what else is going on with him right now.
Last I saw he's.

Speaker 1 (43:14):
He's been on my Padres Patreon Keeper League minors for
three seasons. He's hurt in low double A. I think
still throws one hundred. Nothing going on yet, but eventually
he'll show up in big league baseball. But yeah, you know, hey,
great trade nets, Good on you. What else did you do?

(43:34):
Nothing right? So what what are you going to get
out of it?

Speaker 2 (43:38):
Nothing?

Speaker 1 (43:39):
A bunch of seventy win teams with promising young players
that you now have to trade to hit restart again
and reset the cycle again and hope that behind Dylan
Cruz and James Wood you can now have a good team.
But Gore and Abrams aren't going to be part of
the next Nationals playoff team. I'll tell you that right now.
They're not gonna be And the Nats might trade Mackenzie

(44:02):
Gore this deadline. They wouldn't be crazy not to. They'd
probably get one of the best offers in baseball if
they tried to put that kid.

Speaker 3 (44:11):
On the move.

Speaker 1 (44:12):
Okay, with that, we'll move right along. Four and two
is good and was really really important. The Padres are
in the fight, Rafie said it. Thirteen and thirteen so
far in the month, in a month where the Brewers
have been really hot and the Giants got devers, and
those teams are just a half game ahead of San

(44:34):
Diego for a playoff spot. The Cardinals are tied with
the Podres. The Reds, who the Padres play this weekend,
are just two games behind San Diego, and the Diamondbacks
are a game behind that. And if you want to
throw the Braves in there, they're seven and three in
their last ten and they're three games behind Arizona. So

(44:55):
there's your playoff grouping, there's your pack, there's your pursuit,
you know, Chase group. I think we were all hoping, Rafie,
that Milwaukee wouldn't be a part of this the way
they are, But now Jacob Mizrawski goes out there and
beats Paul schemes today and he's three and oh so
now you don't have Brandon Woodriff, no problem, here's a
kid up from the Miners doing Woodriff or Corbyn Burns

(45:18):
type things for Milwaukee.

Speaker 2 (45:21):
Yeah, the NL Central is very annoying because like they're
all so mid that they're all just going to kind
of beat the shit out of each other for eighty
wins and then you can tack on seven to ten
more for the Cubs on top of that. But the
Brewers somehow always find a way to put up eighty
wins with a middling offense. But because they are they

(45:42):
are one of the great pitcher to have organizations that
they had that are out there. And I mean, I
believe he's down with Tommy john surgery, but former Padres
product Robert Gasser is rising in the ranks in that
organization and I wouldn't be surprised if he's tearing it
up for them next season or the season after that.
So yeah, I mean, this is the product of an

(46:03):
expanded playoff, Like there are just fewer sellers, which at
the end of the day, I think is a good
thing in theory for baseball, which is that the issue
when you have only you know, eight or ten teams
making the playoffs, is that you have more sellers, and
so that the prospect capital that teams that are selling

(46:25):
off can exact off of, you know, opposing teams isn't
as high and you're basically perpetuating the losing cycle. And
so if there are teams that can theoretically sell off strategically,
they're able to get higher prospect capital out of that.
So I do, at the end of the day, think
it is a healthy thing for the baseball ecosystem for

(46:45):
there to be fewer sellers to make us as a
buyer more frustrated. Absolutely absolutely, And I think, like, I
don't know if this team's going to make moves for pitching,
because like they obviously have different ideas about you, Darvish
and Michael King and Matt Waldron then we have, and
they certainly aren't gonna tell us to tell them about it.
But I don't know that the Padres can even afford

(47:08):
starting pitching on the market this season. I think that
the upgrades that they're gonna make it are going to
have to be entirely on the offensive side of the ball.

Speaker 1 (47:15):
The upgrades they have to make on the pitching side,
are Michael King and you Darvish?

Speaker 2 (47:21):
Yeah, period, I'll.

Speaker 1 (47:23):
Say it again. If Michael King and you Darvish can't
answer the bell in the second half, the Padres aren't
going to make the playoffs this year. And it's just
that simple because you can't go even trade for Zach Efflin,
you know, or like Michael Lorenzen, who I wouldn't even want,
Like even a second grade starter is going to cost

(47:46):
way too much for the Padres compared to what they need.
Because let's bullet point real quick through kind of the
what's going on stuff right now, starting with Jason Hayward
got designated for assignment and then ultimately release by the
San Diego Padres in the spring. Going into the spring,
Hey Joe was the left field platoon, Heyward and Connor Joe.

(48:11):
And as the song is, the lyrics go, hey Joe,
where are you going with that gun in your hand?
And it was to blow the head off of this platoon.
Platoon gone complete. We could just say it very quickly,
complete blow You missed f strike three, you blew it.
You didn't get a left fielder. Now you've got Tyler

(48:33):
Wade and Brandon Lockridge and Gavin Sheets in left field,
which is probably the smartest decision they've made, is to
just put the big boy out there. And you need
a left fielder or a DH going forward, but you
really need a left fielder for this team going forward.

Speaker 2 (48:53):
Yeah, and I actually think again, I feel like we've
been saying it for months now, but like, that's the
good news about the Padres. They have an obvious hole
that they need to fix, and frankly, thank god, it's
that that, not that they that they're pitching is their
greatest need, because if they focus their prospect capital resources

(49:13):
on getting a left fielder, chances are it won't cost
as much as what pitching is inevitably going to cost
with how taxed pitching arms are in Major League Baseball
these days. So you know, I I'm not I know
they will. I'm so confident saying they will make a move.
It's just a matter of when and how much damage

(49:34):
is done in the meantime while we're waiting for them
to make that move.

Speaker 1 (49:37):
So far, the damage done is we're no longer in
playoff position where a half came out. We're not very
far out, but we're a little bit out. Let's see
where the drift ends up. Our hero Robert Suarez did
the job. In the final game against the Dodgers, was
suspended three games, appealed it the suspension was dropped to

(49:59):
two games games. He then dropped the appeal and served
game one on Wednesday. He'll serve game two on Friday.
The Padres won today with morohone closing. They'll probably close
with a fresh bullpen with morohone on Friday, and then
you get Suarez back. So great job, Robert Suarez. Appreciate

(50:24):
you doing the job for the team and appreciate the
Padres covering up for him the way they have.

Speaker 2 (50:32):
Yeah, I want to just transition a little bit off
of Suarez, because look, we knew what that was going
to be was we knew what was gonna happen. I
want to talk briefly about the lineup shuffling that happened
today because it was quite interesting. So Xander Bogart's scratched
from the lineup today at the last minute, which shoulder

(50:54):
sore ness, which is something that has been bothering him
so far this season a few times. But we saw
a very unique lineup today, So I just want to
pull it up right in front of me. So we
had Luis a Ria's batting first, which I believe is
the first time that's happened this season, Manny Machado batting second,

(51:15):
also the first time, Jackson Merrill third, Fernando Tazzis Junior
in the cleanup spot, and then filling out the kind
of usual suspects of sheet A Glaciers taking Bogart spot
in the sixth hole, and then the unfortunate seven through
nine at Bryce Johnson, Tyler Wade, and Elias Diaz who
did go three for nine today. So shout out to them,

(51:38):
Shout out to their families.

Speaker 3 (51:41):
Well they're not dead. Just shout out to that.

Speaker 2 (51:46):
But uh, what do you make of that, Craig, what
do you make of the lineup shuffling today?

Speaker 1 (51:51):
Well, the first lineup shuffle was to put Merrill at
two and arise at four, which I think is a
great move and could be made even better by putting
sheets at four and arise at five. I think that
would be really good because multiple times since the move
has been made, somebody has gotten on with two outs

(52:13):
on first base and arises up and you're like, well, okay,
the single best thing that can happen is maybe a
double yea, you know, but really it's a single. So
we really need a rise to get a hit, just
to set the table for sheets now as opposed to
your clean up hitter driving in a run. I don't

(52:33):
hate arise batting fourth. I do think it's marginally more
effective if you flip flop heat and sheets. And I'm
fine with Merrill two, fulfilling Chris Reid's you know, pledge
and quixotic quest since the beginning of the year to
see that success. Let the confetti rain for Chris Reid Jackson.

(52:59):
Merrill is batting second. I'm good with all of that.
I don't know what the hell today was. I really
don't know what today was. A Rise is hot and
he got hits batting leadoff, and he got the RBI single.
So you sound like a little bit of an asshole,
just a wee bit of a dick if you criticize

(53:20):
the move when he got the hit that drove in
the run batting first. But don't we all know, and
I'm pretty sure Shilt knows. I know, Shilt knows leadoff
is the worst place to bat Louise a rise. It's
like the worst use of the resource and then they

(53:40):
just moved everybody up. They put to tease four when
we've known he's been our leadoff man all year. Like truly,
RAPI I have no idea what today was about the
rest of it. I understand today I thought was some
weird Erzats versus Gore lineup, And I don't know, but

(54:02):
I kind of hope I don't see that lineup again.

Speaker 2 (54:05):
Yeah, I mean, I think the one thing that I
think is defensible is hitting Machado second, given the fact
that he is probably the best hitter on the team
right now and he it really does not make sense
for him to be hitting third at all. So like,
if you're gonna make that shuffle, then great. I don't
really like Jackson Merrill in the three hole, and I

(54:27):
don't like a Rise hitting leadoff, and uh, I just
think a Rise makes perfect sense in the five hole.
And I actually thinkik weirdly like if you have Bogarts
in the sixth hole, like that's kind of the optimal
lineup because you want that guy who's gonna get hits
with guys on base in uh, in the five hole,
and then in the sixth hole you want a singles

(54:47):
threat and a guy who is low key is stolen
base threat because you have so many singles hitters in seven, eight,
nine after and Bogarts has been stealing a lot of
basses this season, so I actually think six is a
great spot for him in the lineup. But yeah, I
agree with you. I think it felt like a very
sort of old school move that I you know, I'm

(55:08):
happy to see that like that, there's no sacred position
in the lineup like that. I think, you know, I
applaud that, at least for the Padres, because I think
that that was some of my worry. But yeah, I'm
certainly not a fan of booting sheets all the way
down to fifth uh when unfortunately this team doesn't have

(55:28):
any slug uh and you desperately need it in the
cleanup spot.

Speaker 1 (55:35):
So let's kind of I mean, obviously we're pretty deep
into the show, but I feel like we don't have
to dive in and have to go through a gigantic
chalkboard sized equation to figure out what's going on with
the San Diego Padres. Eighty games out of one sixty two,

(55:56):
it's pretty straightforward. Can I let's see if I can
do it in three? Okay? One the Padres have benefited
from having the hottest start in Major League Baseball, starting
seven to zero to fifteen to four. Since then, they've
just kind of hung on two. Elite pitching has carried

(56:22):
the Padres to eight games over five hundred at the
eighty game mark, thirteen shutouts in eighty games, a lockdown bullpen,
and a starting rotation that has largely surpassed expectations in
a weird, ironic Buddy Black That's baseball way where Dylan

(56:43):
Cees is one of the least effective, but other guys
rise up, Randy Vasquez, Nick Poveda, Stephen Kollach, etc. Three
After a red hot start, the Padres offense showed major
leaks that are a combination of gigantic gaping holes in

(57:03):
a couple of spots in the lineup and an overall
lack of power that could be the team's fatal flaw
eighty two games from now, Rafie, what would you edit?

Speaker 2 (57:21):
I would just be a little bit more prescriptive, I
guess in terms of these eighty games, which you know,
look pitching, good offense, bad base running. Weird. It's kind
of like my my headlines. I think, getting a little
bit more specific, we know this team doesn't have slug

(57:44):
You know, this team has hit sixty nine home runs
this year. Number one, nice, but number two, they're on
pace for one hundred and forty home runs, which is
far below the one hundred and eighty that we pegged
at the beginning of the season. Craig, my question to you,
how many teams have made the playoffs in the wild
card era hitting one hundred and forty or fewer home

(58:05):
runs in a season?

Speaker 1 (58:08):
Oh, my god, I don't know. Five.

Speaker 2 (58:13):
It's a little bit more pessimistic. It's actually nineteen in
nineteen and thirty seasons, so you're.

Speaker 1 (58:22):
Averaging fewer than one is season.

Speaker 2 (58:25):
Fewer than one a season, two thirds of one basically
a season to be specific. So it's not great. You know,
the two thousand and five Padres are one of those teams.
But we've talked about that constantly. Something we haven't really
talked about. Yes, we have talked about the exit ve low,

(58:48):
the hard hit percentage, the barrels like they're all in
the in the bottom sixth or eighth of the league.
You know, we have the twenty fifth highest average exit velocity,
twenty eighth highest hard hit percentage, twenty seventh highest barrel percentage. However,
we also have the third fewest strikeouts in the league
this season. And the thing that really struck me is

(59:12):
so far this season, the Padres only have one hundred
and twelve strikeouts looking, which is by far the lowest
in baseball. The next lowest team is one hundred and
twenty six and league averages one hundred and fifty three strikeouts.
And so for me to sum up the approach, it's

(59:33):
don't strike out at all costs, even if that means
putting weak balls in play. And I think we can
debate the merits of that. I think that that's something
that we certainly applauded the team last season in terms
of switching their gears from you know, being a three
to outcomes team in twenty twenty three to being a

(59:54):
contact focused team in twenty twenty four. I think strategically
that has worked out for the Padres, But to kind
of go so far in the contact forward space that yeah,
you're not striking out a lot and you're putting a
lot of balls in plays. And look no further than
Sunday's win to see the advantage of having a Jose
I Glacias making contact constantly on the team, but the

(01:00:17):
team doesn't hit a lot of home runs and they
don't hit very many hard balls, and so, you know,
I just think it's something to keep our eyes on.
I don't think it's really you know, the offense hasn't
been good so far. I think we can say that definitively.
I can't say for certain whether or not the approach
is busted completely, but just interesting. Interesting.

Speaker 1 (01:00:39):
Yeah, And when we talk about the lack of power
for the Padres, here's something I'd like to note at
this time last year, or right around this time, because
there's still five more days. Right in the month of June.
At the end of June twenty twenty four, Jackson Merrill
had twelve homers. He hit nine in the month of

(01:01:00):
June last year. This year, Jackson Merrill has five homers,
so he's on pace for ten. Last year he hit
twenty four. So to match his total from his rookie year,
Jackson Merrill would need to hit nineteen homers in the

(01:01:24):
second half of the season, which would probably be one
of the league's leaders in home runs. So it's not
like oh boo, Jackson Merrill. Jackson Merrill has had a
number of unfortunate injuries, hamstring, concussion, you know, nothing that
you would hold against him in any way. But that

(01:01:47):
power was way out of line in his rookie year
from what his minor league career had predicted. And this
year he's hitting a lot like his minor league career predicted,
high average, a little bit of chase, not a lot
of walks, and occasional power. And the Padres to be
the superversion of themselves. Need Jackson Merrill to hit more

(01:02:09):
like fred Linn and less like one Pierre. You know,
hitting three to eight with well one Pierre? Could it
two omers? Not ten? But I'll try and think of
my three hundred hitting ten homer centerfield comparison.

Speaker 2 (01:02:22):
I apologize, I'm not worried about Jackson Merrill. I not
that I'm saying that he's look like you said. Track
record says that he should not be a twenty five
homer guy. So in that sense, could that baron de fruition?

Speaker 1 (01:02:40):
Sure?

Speaker 2 (01:02:42):
I just mostly chalk up so this year so far
to injuries. And you know, we were talking with some
folks before the game on the field on Saturday, and
they they said as recently as this past Friday, Jackson.
Merrill was vomiting and like looked like he couldn't walk
so and today he hit an opposite field hit that

(01:03:04):
went three hundred and seventy nine feet and I think
Lane Thomas had to make a leaping catch at the
wall to prevent from going out. And I'm not worried
about Jackson. I'll just say that much. But I agree
with you that again, it's like when you lose the
profile home runs and you lose the Higashioka home runs

(01:03:24):
and then the guy who still have on the team
are underperforming their home run totals. It does not give
you a lot of wiggle room.

Speaker 1 (01:03:32):
That's it again. I'm not trying to knock Merril. If
anyone's hearing me, oh, Greg's ripping Meryl. No, I'm just facts,
don't rip people. The fact is he had twelve last
year and he's got five this year, and that's a
seven homer gap. And the gap between what it could
be right now is fourteen from what the end of
the year total could be. So he might just owe

(01:03:56):
us some homers and maybe he's going to hit a
bunch of bombs in the second half and I don't know,
but if not, that's once again something that has to
be picked up somewhere else on the ledger or else.
You come in at one hundred and fifty homers and
you try to make the playoffs that way, and I
think you're gonna be fighting with the Brewers and the
Cardinals and every other one of these teams, the Giants

(01:04:18):
and the Diamondbacks and the Reds. You're gonna be fighting
with all of them at one hundred and fifty homers.
If you somehow find a way to lift yourself out
of that, you'll lift yourself out of that pack as well,
which brings you to the pitching. And again, I think
this is really really straightforward. The Padres have gotten more

(01:04:38):
out of lesser starters than you should have expected. They've
gotten less out of their top starters than you would
have hoped. And if you don't get more out of
your top starters by the end of the year, the
equation will fail. It will valiantly, brilliantly fail, but it
will fail at the end. So you've got to get

(01:05:02):
Michael Kingan, you Darvish back healthy and effective to pair
with Season Pavetta, and then you can go on a run.

Speaker 2 (01:05:10):
Yeah, we've gotten four hundred and twenty two innings and
a third from starting pitching this season. That's nineteenth in
Major League Baseball. And we always talk about we talk
about the one hundred and eighty homer problem, and we've
also talked about the nine hundred inning problem, which is
how are you going to get nine hundred innings from
your starters every year? And right now the Padres are
at the halfway mark, thirty innings underwater in the nine

(01:05:33):
hundred inning equation. So those are thirty innings that need
to be covered by Jason Adam and by Adrian morhone
and by Jeremiah Strata or by Brian Hoeing or by
Wandy Peralta, you know. And so the question is who's
throwing those innings? How much are they taxing them for,
you know, stretch runs in August and September, et cetera,
et cetera. So very very important question. But I think

(01:05:58):
I've been sort of surprised to see that the Padres
are middle of the pack in terms of relief pitcher
innings pitched. So I don't know, I thought that was interesting.
I just think we've been writing our top guys more
because we've been pitching in leverage situations, which is put
us in that position.

Speaker 1 (01:06:17):
Which brings me to the last thing that you put
in in the menu that I thought was so interesting,
which is at the beginning of the year, the Padres
were this super aggressive team that was stealing second base
all the time, stealing third base all the time, first
to third, second home, first to home, like they were
doing it all and then they just stopped. Yeah, and

(01:06:38):
I don't know why they stopped, Like why did you stop?
Go back more, more and more and more steal more,
like what happened, Rafie.

Speaker 2 (01:06:49):
I don't know. So the Padres have thirty two outs
on bases this year, so I just want to make
clear what that is. That does not include force outs,
that does not include stealing or caught stealings or pickoffs.
These are like I'm running from first to third and
I get thrown out at third, or I'm running from
second to home and I get thrown out at home.
We saw a really weird send today from Tim Leeper

(01:07:10):
where Elias Diaz was thrown out by a country mile
at home to take the bat out of Manny Machado's
hand with runners on base, potentially, you know, exacerbating what
ended up being enough of a one run victory. But
you know, so we've seen the Padres be aggressive in
that sense. But something that I think is peculiar is

(01:07:32):
we have a seventy nine percent stolen base percentage, which
is eighth in baseball, so firmly in the top ten.
We have, according to statcast Our, twenty seven point three
feet per second average sprint speed is tied for twelfth,
so upper half in the league. And yet the Padres
have nine advances from stolen bases under average this season.

(01:07:56):
That's twenty sixth in baseball. And you would think that,
especially for a team that doesn't hit home runs and
is really relying on singles, why wouldn't you be stealing
second base more often? You got to get guys in
scoring position. I mean again, like a runner on second
base is a rule of thumb for folks, especially important

(01:08:18):
with the Manford man. A runner on second base with
no outs has an expected run total of one zero
point nine to nine or one, dependent on the given season,
but almost always it's about one. So you get that
leadoff single on second base through stolen base, your expected
run total is one and uh for the Padres. Again,

(01:08:39):
like I said, who are not slugging like it seems
like it would be critical, especially for a team that
has no qualms about stealing third base. They still on
third base all the time this season, so I guess,
just like, why the reticence, why the hesitants.

Speaker 1 (01:08:52):
That's all, only four players on the Padres try to
steal bases at all. Fernando Tatteas Junior is sixteen out
of eighteen. Xander Bogarts is thirteen out of fourteen. Holy shit,
it's the one thing he's done at an elite level
this year, although he's played pretty good defense amidst having

(01:09:13):
three slash lions all in the twos two sixteen, two
fifty eight, two sixty one. Brandon Lockridge is eight out
of nine on steals, Way to go. Manny Machado is
eight out of ten on steals. Holy crap. No other
Padre has even tried more than four steals. Luisa risees

(01:09:40):
three out of four, Jake Cronenworth is two out of three,
Josey Iglesias is two out of three, Jackson Merrill is
one out of three, and Tyler Wade is one out
of three. With one hundred and two at bats, w
T like those two guys should be eight out of ten.

Speaker 2 (01:10:05):
Well, especially because if you go to sprint speed on stackcast,
the of the fastest players this this blows my mind.
Tied for third for fastest players on the team. Yes,
faster than Tyler Wade. At fifth are Jake Croninworth and
Jackson Merrill in terms of sprint speed twenty eight point

(01:10:26):
three feet per second on their average sprint speed according
to Statcast. Unleash Jake Croninworth, unleash Jackson Merrill. I don't
get it like these are Like I think that the
break even point for stolen bases is seventy percent, Like basically,
if you can steal more than seventy percent, it's worth it.
The Potters are at a seventy nine percent clip, so

(01:10:48):
that nine percent is just free runs that they're leaving
on the board for really no reason other than I
don't understand why. So please, Tim Leeper, you can said
guys home, send us out and base.

Speaker 1 (01:11:03):
If there's nothing else to take away from this midseason
check in, take in the fact that the Podres don't
have enough power to compete with the other major teams
in the National League, so they have to overcome it
with base running an average, and they're just leaving base
running runs out there. Guys who need to run aren't running.
So take that for what it is. Rafie anything else

(01:11:25):
before we wrap up?

Speaker 2 (01:11:29):
Just that?

Speaker 1 (01:11:29):
Uh go Padres, Yeah, yeah, absolutely, Hey, thirteen and thirteen,
don't piss on it. Survive in advance. They did the
survive part. It wasn't the most beautiful thing all the time,
but they have survived, and so the chance to advance
still exists. Go eight games over five hundred in the

(01:11:51):
next hundred or next eighty. I mean, you're eighty eight
wins with two games left to go, so I think
we'd all take it. Chris, hope your back feels a
lot better. Thank you everybody for listening to the show.
If you've made it to the end of this and
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(01:12:11):
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with group therapy. Please go watch poker Face Season two,
episode ten, debuting Thursday on Peacock For Rayfie Canter and

(01:12:33):
Chris read, I'm Craig Elston. Go Podreis through the will

(01:14:01):
say