July 7, 2025 • 63 mins
Craig Elsten, Chris Reed, and Raphie Cantor join forces late after a Sunday night baseball win that lifted the Padres over the Rangers to discuss how the Padres have tinkered with their lineup and pitching deployment to be smarter. Plus, All-Stars, Darvish's return, Manny's 2,000 hit pursuit, and trivia!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The All Star break is almost here, and it's the
perfect time to jump into the community that is padres
hot Tub. Come take advantage of all the things that
Chris and Rafie and I are doing for you for
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padres hot Tub. When you do, you'll find out that
(00:23):
for as low as five dollars a month, you can
get access to postgame shows happening after virtually every win,
to our group, therapy shows exclusive to our patrons, access
to our discord, a much much better social media experience
for a Padres fan than you'll find on any of
the other regular platforms. And actually there's more beyond that.
(00:45):
Just today, just today, Sunday, July sixth, in the morning,
I popped into our Big Patrons channel and said, hey,
I've got three tickets to today's Padres game. Who wants them?
Big Patron, come and get them, And one of them did, Chuckles.
Thank you, Chuckles. You went to the game, Your family
went to the game on us on PHT. It's that
(01:07):
simple stuff like that happens all the time, like every
homestand so find out for yourself. Patreon dot com slash
padre houp. Come join the community and find out that
you made a great decision. Welcome to the podrays Hots Up, everybody.
(01:46):
I'm Craig Elston. Chris Reid's over there, Rafy Canter right
over there. We're all together once again. It's Sunday, July sixth.
The podres just won a series. Hey, threes are good.
Seven games over is good in possession of a playoff
spot currently is good. Good times, guys, good times. We're
(02:11):
here for a good times podcast.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
We always take series wins over Bruce Bochie because that dude.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
Damn, that dude.
Speaker 2 (02:19):
Brings it all the time, that big head of his.
We love sending you on an airplane feeling bad?
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Could I put a put a six pack of beer
in your baseball helmet? Chris?
Speaker 3 (02:32):
Yes, it's not just the beer, it's the ice with
the beer. That's what Terry Kennedy said. It's like you
can maybe fit a six pack in most ballplayers helmets,
but you can't fit it with ice too.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
Oh the good, Well, we've got a good show for
you today. I'd like to think all of our shows
are generally good shows, and this is going to be
another one too. We're going to recap the series against
the Texas Rangers. We're going to talk about three San
Diego Padres going to the Major League Baseball All Star
Game one in the starting lineup. Any questions, cribbled concerns,
(03:09):
we'll get into it. We'll talk about a managerial decision
that was smart and good and then worked holy shit,
really good things works better than bad things. And we'll
talk about one of the critical players for the Padres
postseason hopes coming back. Plus Manny Machado may get to
two thousand by the time you listen to this show.
(03:31):
Who knows if you're one of those folks who waits
a couple of days before you listen to the show.
So all that to come on this episode of Padres
Hota Guys, something funny has happened in terms of it
almost feels like stat manipulation because I saw this stat
in Kevin Acey's newsletter after the last Padres series with
(03:57):
this victory over Texas, which because they lost the series
to San Diego, they're under five hundred. They would have
been over five hundred if they had won. But the
Padres are thirteen to zher in series this year against
losing teams, and they're a sick number against swinning teams.
(04:18):
They're a really bad number againstwinning teams, which I don't
remember and I'll go look up, but it's really bad.
But like part of that is like facing the Blue
Jays at a moment. We faced them when they were losers,
but now they're winners, so they switched columns on us.
You're like the Braves of flip flopped like three times
from the loser to the winner, to the loser to
(04:39):
the winner to the loser column with us. So it's
kind of a weird stat but I'm going to take
this as our launch point. Padres beat the Rangers two
out of three, after they beat the Royals two out
of three at home and the Nationals two out of
three at home. This is what they didn't do in
twenty twenty three when they didn't make the playoff, So
(05:00):
they blew it against losing teams all the time. For
everything that we have said properly critically about the twenty
twenty five Padres, they've done a great job of beating
the teams they're supposed to beat.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
Yeah, just going from the standings today as they stand,
as Craig mentioned, Padres are in a position of wildcard spot.
They are thirty two and eleven this season against teams
that are below five hundred. They are sixteen and thirty
against teams that are five hundred or better. So look, man,
(05:33):
I'm not gonna say, like I'm fine with being sixteen
and thirty, you know, against against good teams. But the
wins all count the same. And that's like what we
have always talked about when we're dropping games against the Rockies,
you know, against the Marlins, against the Royals in the
years past. And you know, I I it matters when
(05:57):
we're talking division, it matters when we're talking wildcard. But
like you know, I could give a shit if we're
winning games against the Rangers or for winning games against
the Yankees in the American League, it doesn't matter. It
all counts the same. So I'm I think in a
weird way like this, if they carry this baseline through
(06:18):
the rest of the season of showing up, competing, taking
care of business against bad teams, and I think that
as the team improves, as they make trades everything, they
clearly can get it up for you know, competition against
better teams. So this is like weirdly encouraging to me.
Then if, as it was in years past, they were
showing up against the good teams and then losing games
(06:39):
against the bad teams, that that would be a little
bit more worrying for me at the stage.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
I'm I'm I'm one foot in with you, Rayfi and
one foot out. I do think the roster needs some
sialis in order to get it up for some of
the better teams, and I think it needs to improve.
But we've talked about them taking the wins that other
teams give them, and it's not always going to be
losing teams that do that, but they're way more likely
(07:07):
to do so. And I don't think Texas is a
bad team at all. You know, they kind of strolled
into the playoffs a couple of years ago and had
a bunch of dice rolls go their way and they
became champions and then last year had a little bit
of a fall down. And I think they're a team
that's right in between those two levels, like right between
(07:28):
just missing the playoffs and right between championship caliber. And
the Padres are two. So this was a big series
to win. They have to get better. We all know
they have to get better. We hope that they will.
But to have this baseline of getting the job done
when you need to, that's where I'm absolutely with you,
(07:51):
and it makes me feel like Roster Reis. I see
mean fangrafts forty four percentage chance to make the playoffs
might be a little low thin. I think Baseball reference
might be a little bit more right. I don't remember
what it is, but but it ultimately end in San Diego.
We are now spoiled little brats who want that next step,
(08:14):
who want that NLDS win and the NLCS win, and
we want to go to our World Series. So I'm
going to be a spoiled little brat a little bit
and continue to hope that they get better. But this
was a lot of fun the series. They did some
smart things. Smart things worked. Fernando Tactis. We've always kind
(08:34):
of thought that maybe he's a bit of an emotional
player and he rides the ups and he kind of
sinks in the lows. Well, today he got named excuse
me not today today, today today, Yeah, today he got
named a National League All Star and He responded by
absolutely coming out and changing a game tonight. So let's
(08:57):
hope the boys ride the highs for a little bit
while all the way through the All Star break.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
I found that number. By the way, I just hate
to say something and then go really bad. That's the critical,
detailed analysis that you come here for at padres hotep
so thirteen and zero in series against losing teams, three
twelve and one in series against winning teams this season,
which perfectly comports to what you said eleven and thirty
(09:26):
or twelve and thirty, whatever that was, that she would
have left it really bad.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
Really, it wasn't enough.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
I mean, three twelve and one is really bad. So
really I was a truthteller on that one. At least
let me start with this because I want to praise
the manager twice. Okay, I don't know why, but Mike
shilt for a week, got this weird idea and has
(09:55):
said a battle lineup that sucked, and he rolled it
out for a week and the and the lineup sucked
pretty much every day in that week, and then he
wrote it in for the next game, and mother nature
intervened and dumped rain on Citizens Bank Ballpark and erased
(10:18):
Tuesday's scheduled game against the Phillies, and then Wednesday morning,
when the game was to be played, he rewrote the
lineup and he put Tatisse back at leadoff, Merril two,
Machado three, arrives four sheets bowguards, you know, and on
the way down the line. And since then the Padres
(10:39):
have scored six one and a loss. But to Christopher Sanchez,
who was dealing three four four, which is better than
zero two one six zero three, which is what the
other ones. The other lineups bore fruits. So thank you
(11:00):
Mike Shildt for not sticking with a lineup that seemed
objectively bad and replacing it and putting to Tease back
at lead off and arise at four. And I think
today's game showed specifically why that works when to tease
reached base stole and score down an a rise single.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
Yeah, I mean that this is something that we talked
about in the weeks past. That was stolen base number
nineteen on the season for Tatis, you know, quietly thirty thirty.
You know, if you can get those logging numbers up
not out of the question, like, uh, he's at what
fifteen home runs now? Like he's halfway there. But for
(11:44):
a team that's not hitting a lot of home runs
on the whole, they need to be stealing bases. And
you know, Lo and behold Tatis getting up getting on
second base. Uh, he was a He got on base
in the in the leadoff spot in that inn, a
Marilyn Machado subsequently got out. He advanced second base with
Machado striking out in the same pitch, but getting on
(12:09):
base so that Arise could be there with two hours
in a single. No matter what is going to score Tatis.
It's everything. It's everything for this team and they need
to be doing it, not just with Tatis but with
other players. But that's the formula, Craig, that's the formula,
and we talked about it on the show. We talked
about it on the golf course a couple of weeks
ago when they first started tingering with the formula, Like
(12:31):
Arise needs to be fourth or fifth for him to
have any impact with those singles.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
Yeah, and Fernando has not actually done the thirty thirty.
I thought he might have in twenty twenty one, but
he only got to twenty five stolen bags in his
forty two home run year. So he's a dude who's
one of the faces of the game. That's why he
got named an All Star. It's only his third selection
(12:57):
in his six years, So congratulations Nando. Yesterday's game, Bruce
Bochie kind of had his team running all over the Boys,
and that fueled a lot of the Rangers' success and
it was glad. It was good to see them, at
least in that situation. And then later in the game
with Bryce Johnson fight that fire with fire because the
(13:21):
team does have a bit of the personnel to be
able to be that team. We just haven't seen the
focus on it. And it would be good if they did.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
The other thing that I gotta give Mike shilt or
maybe the thing Mike did right was read the email
that he got from the front office. I don't care
how the sausage was made. But today, Sunday, July sixth,
in a rubber game where the Podres had their worst
(13:51):
possible options for beginning the game pitching wise, that they've
basically had all year, finally did a thing. They had
David Morgan, the reliever, the right handed reliever, go one
time through the lineup, and then they brought in Kyle
Hart to do quote unquote bulk relief, and it wasn't
(14:12):
like David Morgan was great. In fact, you could make
an argument if we were doing a postgame show that
the moment in Sunday's game was Jake Cronaworth handling one
hundred mile an hour line drive with the bases loaded
in the first inning and making a falling to his
side catch that prevented it from being a three to nothing,
(14:33):
four nothing lead for Texas in the top of the
first kept it at one nothing. You know, Morgan wasn't good,
but Kyle Hert was great. He came in in through
three and two thirds, perfect innings, eleven up, eleven down,
all of the promise of the kbo Cy Young and
everything else realized for one evening at Petco Park, and
(14:57):
Heart gets a win as a result, but pitch as
well for the first time in his Padres career. So
Mike Schilt, mister, hey, he's too stubborn, he's too stuck
in his ways. He's gonna do this, do this, do that.
He used an opener and it worked. He switched the
lineup back and it worked, Thank you, Mike.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
Yeah, Texas was not ready for Kyle Hart at all,
and it may because the Padres didn't announce he was
coming up until like this afternoon. That was a surprise
in our discord, and it had to be a surprise
for Bruce Bochie with David Morgan because we talked about
we talked about him throwing first pitch pastballs and guys
(15:41):
jumping on them, and coming into this game he was
giving up a seven hundred ops at swinging on the
first pitch and a three eighty eight ops all the
other times, and we saw the Rangers jumping on him
the first six batters tonight swung first pitch. So that's
the book on David Morgan. They had prepared for him
(16:03):
a little bit, but when it came to Kyle Hartman,
they had not. They were not ready for that junk.
They weren't ready for him to be locating. Kudos to
Kyle hart keeping those walks at Bay a big old
goose on the afternoon for three point two innings pitch.
So great job for him putting the ball on the
strike zone and trusting his stuff.
Speaker 3 (16:24):
Yeah, I mean, we talk about begging and pleading for
the Padres just to do smart things, and they did one.
They did one tonight. You know, David Morgan on the
season has been averaging ninety seven point eight miles per
hour on his fastball. His second pitch that he throws
the most is a curveball. And so you have a righty,
power pitcher with a curveball, and that's the pitcher that
(16:49):
the Texas Rangers top of the order is facing first
time through. And then you compliment that with a soft
tossing lefty who's bringing a ninety mile an hour sinker
and a sweeper primarily. So it's just completely different looks.
It's making Kyle Hart stuff lay up, and it also
means that the lineup of the Rangers couldn't necessarily be
(17:14):
as prepared. And this was another subtle thing that Mike
Schilt did tonight that I also wanted to shout out.
There could be a matchups argument here that belied this decision,
But I did just want to point out that Adrian
morehone came in in the eighth inning, not Jason Adam.
Jason Adam was the seventh inning pitcher tonight, and Adrian
(17:34):
Morehon came in the eighth. So if that continues as
a trend, something that I would obviously welcome, but yeah,
it just seems like, you know, we're more than halfway
through the season at this point. We have the tape,
we have the data, and I think that maybe inside
the clubhouse, Shilt and Diebola have a little bit more
(17:57):
latitude to navigate and push and pull these lovers as
they need to be pushed and pulled. So yeah, great
job by the coaching staff, and great job by the
pitchers tonight.
Speaker 1 (18:07):
You know, Padres scored three, four and four. Texas is
a good pitching staff. I don't think anyone thinks San
Diego's offense is fixed. It's not. Nothing that we've said
in the previous weeks have fundamentally changed. You know, right now,
as things stand, there are other teams in the National
League that are more well rounded than the San Diego Padres.
(18:30):
And that's why you heard the ESPN broadcasters talking about
at alting. Gonzalez had a mid innings report where he said,
you know, aj Preler will get a bat, and it's
just a question of when and how good a bat
and how much the farm system can allow him to
get the bat that he wants. It's a waiting game.
But the big difference is, you know, that at this point,
(18:54):
we are eighty nine games in and the Padres are
seven games over five hundred. You know, at this time
a year ago, the Padres were not seven games over
five hundred. They were dancing with five hundred. So, you know,
with a team that feels like it's it's less than
(19:16):
or whatever, the Padres were in a better situation and
they've still got that potential improvement yet to come. Just
to let you know, at the eighty nine game mark
last year, which actually was a loss to Texas, the
Padres were forty six and forty three, they were three
games over five hundred, so it's a it's a two
(19:37):
game win in the standing seven up as opposed to
three up.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
The Rangers have had this kind of weird spot the
last few seasons because if you remember, in twenty twenty three,
the Padres swept the Rangers at home, which then tilted
us towards being buyers, and we went and got Rich Hill.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
That team and Choi Jersey wouldn't be in my closet
if not for the sweep of the Rangers.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
Yeah, so you know, and they went on to win
the World Series that year, so hey, maybe they're ubbing
a little bit of magic on us now. But yeah,
this team has tons and tons of room to improve.
We've talked about it. We know what it is. You know,
even the ESPN broadcast tonight was talking about, Wow, this
Padre's bullpen is great. Are they going to have enough
(20:28):
gas to make it to the end of the year.
So the assignment is clear. But I mean this is
as good of a position as we've been in as
any since twenty twenty two, really, so no reason that
it can't keep getting better.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
Well, we can put the Texas series aside then. You know,
we talked about the Friday July fourth walk off on
a postgame show. This is out to the free feed.
But Padres did everything they could to not win that game,
and then Grona Worth bailed them out at the very end.
You know, every time Xander Bogarts is up with the
(21:06):
bases loaded, I just wonder what type of out it's
gonna be. You know, Like today was the hard drive
to the outfield warning track. Whoo. Another one will be
a soft pop up the second. Now there will be
a weak ground ball to third. But maybe the least
clutch Podre in history Xander Bogart's but he does find
(21:29):
a way to contribute an in other directions and the
Padres take two out of three. Stephen Kolla gets knocked around,
he gets sent down. Matt Waldron got knocked around, he
got sent down. But boys, Monday, you Darvish comes to
the San Diego Podres starting rotation against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
(21:49):
I'm intending to go to this game on Monday night,
both because Manny could get two thousand hits and because
I want to see you. I want to hear soldier boy.
You know I you you like. I'm down for all
of it, and I truly believe we need you Darvish
and Michael King to make the playoffs. So this is
(22:10):
part of the wing condition coming back online for San Diego.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
Yeah, Daddy's back and we need him more than ever.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
I mean you, we.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
Talked about you, darbish hopefully putting up what did we
say before the year one hundred and ten innings and.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
He's seventy seventy.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
We have really hedged that a lot. But it's because
his spot in the rotation has been really hard to fill.
I mean, Stephen Kolik, for all his early success, has
been leaving the ball up really badly, and that's resulted
him in the team losing his last six starts. You know,
(22:51):
that's a trend that can't continue. As much as we
think he's found money and gonna be a good padre
for a while, we very much need you Darvish to
be a good padre for a little while as well.
And you know, with the club being kind of weird
about the messaging of his return and my shield doing
(23:12):
the hole, he may, he may not. I am stoked
he's coming back tomorrow. I'm stoked. It's not like a
push towards one start before the All Star Game to
extend his rest, because I think you Darvish knows when
he's ready to go, and at least he knows when
he's willing to try, and him having a little having
(23:33):
it would be two starts before the All Star break
here would go a long way tossuage those concerns.
Speaker 3 (23:43):
Yeah. I thought it was interesting that both Matt Waldron
and Stephen Kullich were optioned to triple A this week.
To me, that that that screams that the Padres have
a certain amount of confidence that you Darvish is going
to be available and b provide a certain amount of
(24:04):
length that they're going to need, you know now, knocking
on all the wood that I have near me. But
you know, players when they get options triple A, they
can't come back up for two weeks unless they are
replacing an injured player. So you know, that could be
part of the calculus for it for them. But yeah,
the Craig, You've been saying it for weeks on the show.
(24:26):
The Padres need you Darvish and Michael King back in
order for them to be a viable playoff team. And uh,
if you Darvish is able to come in and put
up sixty innings for the Padres this season, that's sixty
innings that aren't being thrown frankly by Kyle Hart or
Stephen Kollach or Matt Waldron. And those are sixty vital
(24:48):
innings that the teams are gonna are gonna need because
if you look in the rearview mirror at the wild Card,
there are like four or five teams within breathing distance
of the Padres and they are not. You know, every
team has their own issues. It's the dog days of
Sammar YadA, YadA, YadA. But the Padres starting pitching needs
(25:08):
are acute and their bullpen is taxed. So this is
mission critical for the Padres and use coming at the
perfect time.
Speaker 1 (25:18):
Yeah, right now, the Padres are last year's Guardians, well
winning on pitching and defense, a four person bullpen that's dominant, middling, starting,
winning three two games, winning two to one games, winning
four to three games. Everyone knows you can't win the
World Series doing that, but you can win a regular
(25:39):
season playoff Berth. You can't. You can make a regular
season playoff Berth by being a super you know, bottom
third offense that is carried by a really solid pitching
staff and a team that doesn't beat itself. You can
win ninety games. You can make the playoffs. You can
lose in the playoffs. And right now, that's that's what
(26:00):
I think is the Padres lot Like, We're set to
make the playoffs and lose in the playoffs right now
as one of those teams. That's pretty good. The great
news is, first off, that's not the worst way to
spend the summer. It's enjoying a nice winning season that
culminates in a playoff. Worth and the Padres could improve.
(26:22):
They have the ability to improve and to get to
a spot where for a second straight year. They could
be one of the best teams in the National League.
They were last year they just couldn't score for twenty
four innings against the Dodgers. They could be again this year.
I'm not writing off this year by any means. I
just I'm really clear eyed right now about what this
(26:43):
team is. Right now. We're a marginal winner and there's
a way to take it to a higher level. But
I kind of feel there's a way for the Florida
fall out, I understand, but I feel like this team's
a marginal winner right now. We're the twenty four Guardians,
and we could get to a better spot than that.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
And there's some things that are gonna fall into place
that help improve that. You know, just like twenty twenty three,
there is some freakish luck involved in situational hitting, like
runners in scoring position where the Padres struggled and then
that led to them having, you know, the Pythagorean Championship
(27:22):
this year. There's a couple of things too right now
with nobody out, zero outs in the inning and runners
on first and third guys. It's not many situations, it's
small sample size, but combined with bases loaded and runners
on first and third, their OPS is below four hundred,
(27:45):
their batting average is like one twenty five in those
situations combined, they haven't hit a home run in those situations,
they're barely getting on base with bases loaded, and nobody
out that particulars but is three to oh six. And
then another weird one is how they're hitting left handed pitching.
(28:06):
I'm sorry, I have to believe that the right handed
batters on this team are gonna do better than hit
two twenty six against left handed pitching by.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
The end of the season.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
I have to believe that they're gonna slog better than
three forty eight. I do think that those are things
that are going to improve and coupled with some improvements
to the roster, are going to get us to where
we want to go.
Speaker 3 (28:29):
Yeah, I, Chris, I wanted to. So what was the
situation in which they haven't hit a homer? Is that
you say first and third?
Speaker 1 (28:38):
Both of those I don't believe.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
Let me pull it back up, uh No, bases yeah,
bases loaded they haven't hit a homer, or first and
third they have not hit a home run this.
Speaker 3 (28:49):
Season, so that it's so interesting and.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
Nobody out nobody out, nobody out.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
Okay, but still still so still that to me is
an encapsulation of the Padres approach this season. Because that
their base is loaded, there are runners on first and third,
they're going for the sackfly or the contact to try
and knock base runners in again, on its face, not
a horrible thing, but the fact that like you're never
(29:17):
hitting any home you're not even running into a home run,
like to me screams that like choking up on bats.
They're almost taking like a two strike approach in the
sense of like they're just part trying to put the
ball in play. They're not trying to strike out at
all costs.
Speaker 2 (29:31):
And look, I'm not sure about that because they have
to strike out. I don't know, like it could be, dude,
that that definitely could be. But let's just look at
how many sacrifice flies that has led to. If that's
what they're trying to do, they're not really succeeding. So
(29:52):
like in that situation, Yeah, in first and third, nobody out.
Seven times they've at bats and twelve times they've had
played appearances and twice they've walked, So that means they've
had three sacrifice that means one out of four times
they're successfully doing a sack fly. That's not very good.
(30:14):
And the batting average is only one forty three, so
if they're trying to do that, they're not doing a
very good job at it. Bases loaded nobody out that
it's even worse. It's nine at bats, twelve played appearances
with no walk, so they've also done it three times.
It's the exact sime. Their sacked fly percentage right now
(30:34):
is two fifty, which isn't very good if that's what
they're trying to accomplish.
Speaker 1 (30:40):
That.
Speaker 3 (30:40):
We're still in small sample size city for that. I'm
sorry I didn't realize no appearances, but yeah I did.
Speaker 1 (30:47):
I did.
Speaker 2 (30:47):
Disclaimer it's very small sample size because it's a very
specific situation. But that's also what I'm pointing at, Like,
when that happens, that's gonna win a couple of games,
if like they cash in a couple of those bases
load nobody out moments. If they do that two or
three more times this year, those are multi run events,
(31:08):
you know, and those are that's a win almost you
can't really count it that way exactly, but that's a
win if you throw it to one out those exact
same situations any like runner bases loaded one out five
twenty one ops, one out runners on second and third
three forty nine ops. And the sample sizes are larger
(31:32):
on that. You know it may be approach based, dude.
I just I'm not in any place to know or guess,
because that's so in the hitters meeting, you know that
they're talking about the situation there. I don't know if
it's just them getting the yips in the situation, but
alls I'm saying is as that sample size grows better,
(31:53):
they're going to improve and that's going to lead to
a few more wins on the margins.
Speaker 1 (32:01):
Let's switch things up. All star rosters announced today. Padres
get three All Stars for the twenty twenty five National
League team. We already knew Manny Mitchatta would be the
starting third baseman. That was the obviously right move. Just
would like to note for the record that in his
column on the Athletic Ken Rosenthal listed Manny Machatta as
the third choice third baseman behind ah au Haanio Suarez,
(32:26):
and Max Munsey. So just want to let you know.
Speaker 2 (32:30):
They I'd also like to know. I'd like to note
that Neil Fuck that guy. Mark Grant said it best.
Manny Machado's a better third baseman than Max Munsey. Mark
Grant knows more than Ken Rosenthal.
Speaker 1 (32:43):
We all know he knows Paul and uh they're both
better than Swarez. So just it's whatever, Manny starting the
third and Many'll get to two thousand hits. If it's
not Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Many will be at two thousand hits.
Many has a good shot at three thousand hits. We'll
talk about that a little bit more later in the show.
(33:06):
Jason Adam was named as a reliever. I do not
have a problem with this at all. Jason Adam has
had an all star season. Adrian Mordihone is probably the
best reliever on the Padres team. Recency bias would certainly
suggest that is he had a He's perfect since May
(33:30):
in terms of allowing runs. He didn't allow a run
in June or is not yet in July. But I
don't have a problem with Jason Adam making the team
and him making it over Suarez. I think is objectively
the right call.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
Yeah, for sure, I completely agree with you there and
Jason Adam. It should be noted availability is like the
best ability, best ability, yes right, yeah, yeah, is the
famous saying. And he leads the major leagues and games
played in appearances. So that's good. That said, Adrian got
(34:09):
totally host and he should be in there, he should
be making his All Star debut.
Speaker 1 (34:14):
I'm sorry.
Speaker 3 (34:16):
Yeah, you know, I have to hope that Adrian's going
to be our closer next year, and you know he'll
he'll get that nice juicy stave statistic that everyone loves.
But I think you guys already said it, like Adam's
tied for first in terms of appearances and I was
his forty fourth game of the season, already eighty nine
games in, and you know, look, it's the All Star Game.
(34:39):
It is what it is. It's always going to be
about era, like it just is. And and Adam coming
in to tonight I had a one sixty five. I
haven't even seen what the updated stat is right now,
but that's that's always going to be king. And so
he now has a one sixty one er. So they
(35:00):
told a nice anecdote on the broadcast. I have you
guys heard that he apparently was in church this morning.
Speaker 1 (35:08):
Which yes, I read that in AC's story That's probably
where they got it for the broadcast, that he was
singing in church, not just that he was in church,
but he was in full voice with his beloved family
by his side when the phone rang, and then he
was worried that he was about to be traded, or
(35:31):
his wife was. I think that's what it said in
the story. His wife was worried, because of course Jason
would not be worried meant a conviction in faith, but
that he then walked out blasphemously of the church to
take the call to find out that his petty, selfish
gain had been achieved, that he had reached the All
(35:52):
Star Game, at which point he went back in to
confess his sense.
Speaker 2 (35:56):
Believe that man alone, he hates child abuse.
Speaker 1 (36:03):
We would definitely have some really spirited discussions if the
two and I got in a room and it ever
varied veered towards the events of each other.
Speaker 2 (36:13):
I think you'd eventually like each other. You might not
reach an understanding, but I think you'd reach an affinity.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
Potentially. And is that privilege based that he would listen
to me to accept that, I don't know. Nonetheless, he's
a great picture for the San Diego Padres and by
the way, PhD patrons and I'm one of them, have
been pledging five dollars per Jason Adams strikeout from last
(36:41):
week to the end of the year to benefit the
Trevor Project. And if anybody that is listening would like
to get on that train, please do and join us
Patreon dot com, slash Padres hotub. Get in there and
do it, or do it on your own if you
want to. But we're trying to do something along the
along the way here.
Speaker 2 (37:02):
I do selfishly wish Jason Adam had a full All
Star break rest ahead of him considering that usage, I'm
still worried about the guy come October. I know he's
not much over his career high, but you know, Fernando
going in. I'm not worried about Manny needing a break,
but I am worried that Nando has been nursing some
(37:24):
things and could have really used the break. And I
do feel the same about Adam a little bit selfishly.
Speaker 3 (37:31):
Two things to say about Adam Dell Star Game. First
of all, gay rights. Second of all, I think that
every Padres pitcher, Padre's reliever, excuse me, every Padres reliever
who makes the All Star Game should be forced to
run in from the bullpen and slide like he fell.
(37:51):
And I think that if that became a thing that
like Padres pitchers did that, like that would be just
like a cool thing that people would get ampts about,
and it would be another reason why people liked Padres.
I would be worried about a potential il stint that
would come off of a dislocation or something. Some of
these guys know how to slide because they haven't run
the bases in like twenty years. But hey, it could
(38:13):
be cool, It really could.
Speaker 1 (38:16):
Jason Adams a deserving reliever, and if you're going to
put in a non closer, Adam's as good a pick
as any. Morohan would have been a great pick too,
Maybe he gets a call next year. For now, to
Tatist Junior are going to his third All Star Game,
and guys, to me, this is just a matter of
your thirty thousand foot view or your up close view,
(38:36):
because obviously up close for two months, Tatis has been struggling.
We've been seeing it day by day by day, and
if you take the thirty thousand foot view, every team
in baseball would like to tease in right field for them,
So you know, he's an All Star almost every team.
I'm sure there's a right fielder out there that would
win qualitatively, but I think every team in the league
(38:58):
would like to tease on their team.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
One hundred percent. One hundred percent. And Major League Baseball
likes having him as a face of the game because
he's charismatic. He fans absolutely adore the dude. I'm as
critical as anybody about Fernando Tatist Junior, but at the
end of the day, I am absolutely stoked he's going
because he should be there just about every year. His
(39:24):
production is all Star caliber. It's been a rough few months,
but like the dude responded tonight, he got the All
Star car, the All Star call, and came out and
played like an All Star, And you know, I think
it bodes well for him, and I'm you know, I
(39:44):
may be a bit of a homer with it. I
know Juan Soto didn't get the call, and Wan Soto
has been the best hitter in Major League Baseball for
a little over a month now, and he also is
a face of the game. But you know what, he
can he can go count his money on the All
Star break and he'll be just fine.
Speaker 3 (40:03):
So I want to point this out because I think
some of the Tatis discourse it has tilted, you know,
quite far in one direction, which is that like he's
you know, not performing well and he's underperforming. And yeah,
ever since he got hit in Pittsburgh, like YadA, YadA, YadA,
(40:24):
he's still even with all of this, which Pittsburgh was
two months ago. By the way, he's still top ten
in baseball in f WAR like he is tenth. He's
literally tenth with three point five and that doesn't even
count tonight's stats, which invariably are going to raise them.
And if you start on May second, which is the
(40:47):
day that he got injured into Pittsburgh, he's still been
worth one point four f WAR, which is you know,
it's not it's not It's definitely not tenth in baseball
at that time, I'll tell you that much. But it's
not bad. It's not bad to have a superstar month
and then be solid. And I know we want more,
(41:08):
we expect more, We just we just know we know
what he's capable of. But there's part of me that
does feel that the narrative has gone a little bit
too far in the other way of like, oh, he's
actually not that good right now, like Franti is actually
still pretty amazing, and like you said, Greg, any team
would want to have him.
Speaker 2 (41:24):
And race like, do you take a left fielder who
hits like Elisdas but plays defense like Tattoos and right
now do you take him in left field?
Speaker 3 (41:38):
No?
Speaker 2 (41:40):
Okay, all right, I don't I miss having a great
defensive left fielder. Jerks And was solid last year, but man,
watching Wyatt Langford play left field in Petco Park this
week made me really miss elite defense.
Speaker 4 (41:56):
Well, we.
Speaker 3 (41:59):
The player you just described, the guy who hits like
Elis Diaz and plays a good defense, his name is
Brandon Lockridge. We already have he doesn't.
Speaker 2 (42:07):
No, he's not playing on the team because he made
two crucial errors in a week that one of them
arguably cost them a game.
Speaker 1 (42:16):
Right No, I mean, yeah, Raf, he's not wrong. He
kind of hit like Alests. Chris is not wrong. He
was worse. He was worse than didn't play elite defense.
So you're both right to some extent on that commentary,
the Potters need a better left fielder slash DH. You know,
(42:40):
Sheets has actually been pretty decent in left field. So
it's so fun.
Speaker 2 (42:45):
Even though he can't throw a ball up to our
suite in the Western Metal Supply Building, even though he's
incapable of hitting us, even though he clangs it off
of the balcony, we love him out there.
Speaker 1 (43:02):
A couple more things before we wrap up. You know,
the Padres have seven more games on this home stand.
They've got a four game set against Arizona. They're going
to wrap up with three against the Phillies at two
and one. You know, I said going in that five
and five would be a homestand I'd accept. Chris said
seven and three. Obviously, I'd prefer six and four now
that you started two and one, because I'd prefer not
(43:24):
to lose, you know, go three and four over the
next seven games. And as we said before the home
stand started, ravy. When distribution matters, this Arizona series matters.
And if you take three out of four from Arizona
right here, honestly, you do a lot to disrupt their
(43:44):
chances to make the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (43:47):
Yeah, I mean they're at twenty percent playoff odds right
now according to Fangraft. I'm trying to see for the
wild card there four and a half games behind us
for the last while card spot. So if you minus
two that by going three and one against them six
and a half out going into the All Star Break.
(44:09):
I mean, that's a really hard argument to make to
the fan base that certainly as buyers, that would be
a typical argument, but honestly that they shouldn't sell, that
they shouldn't sell Za Gallon or you know, Josh Naylor
potentially or any of the other people who are coming
up on expiring contracts. So yeah, and it should be
(44:31):
worth saying Diamondbacks very unlikely to trade with us. But
if they are on the market, simple supply and demand,
that's another supplier of a seller that is going to
lower the prices of other teams who potentially would trade
with us. So even if we aren't going to necessarily
acquire the Diamondbacks players themselves, it benefits us for them
(44:53):
to be available on the market.
Speaker 1 (45:00):
Go ahead, Chris, No, that's all I got, like fervent agreement. Well,
let's see it all plays out and wrap with a
couple of quick things. Manny Monday may get two hits
for two thousand, he offered on Sunday when he had
a shot on National TV. And on his thirty third birthday,
(45:23):
as Tony Gwin Junior discussed, I heard him on the
radio last week, even his dad, even the greatest hitter
that we've ever seen. When he got close to three thousand.
You know, he didn't want to do that in Montreal.
You wanted to get that hit in Saint Louis. Didn't
work out for because the grip the bat a little
(45:45):
bit tighter. So I'm really hoping that Manuel will cover
this in the next series to be sure, right, we
need many hits to score runs. It's really important. So
hopefully Monday he gets two more hits for two thousand
and Rafie, you kind of put in a little bit
of a statistical analysis of Manny's chances to get to
(46:07):
three thousand.
Speaker 3 (46:10):
Yeah, I think he's gonna make it.
Speaker 1 (46:12):
I think he's gonna do it.
Speaker 3 (46:15):
So he is under contract with the Padres through his
age forty season, so and it should be worth saying
that so far in his career that in one thy
nine hundred and ninety eight hits, and he has done
so in I had it brought up one eight hundred
and twenty three games, so that is a rate basis
(46:38):
of one point zero nine to seven hits per game
in his career. Now, of course, that was as a
young kid, in entering the prime of his career, through
the prime of his career as he ages, it probably
is a little bit unrealistic to expect that he's going
to keep that same pace. Let's say, for the sake
of argument, he does keep that same pace. That means
(46:59):
it would take him an another nine hundred and twelve
games to get to three thousand, which is a little
bit more than five and a half seasons. It's like
five and two thirds of a season basically, So you
know it's possible. He's I mean like he has he's
under contract for their seven eight more years, so like
he has the ability to play, assuming he is playable
(47:21):
and the Padres aren't tfaying him. I want to do
a little trivia corner. Can you guys name there so many?
Machado's fifth among active players in terms of hits. Who
are the other four ahead of him?
Speaker 1 (47:36):
I got to disqualify. I'm looking at the list, How
are you okay? Craig Freddy Freeman is number one, McCutcheon
is on the list, he is.
Speaker 3 (47:53):
He's number three.
Speaker 1 (47:55):
Yeah, shoot, now I'm going to struggle a little bit more.
That's all right. I saw the Sefie boys from Arizona
who had to move away from the gold Schmid.
Speaker 3 (48:08):
There you go was four, so you're missing number two.
Speaker 1 (48:12):
That's it, right, just one one missing.
Speaker 3 (48:15):
More one more, one more player second on the list.
Speaker 1 (48:18):
Shoot, give me a hint.
Speaker 3 (48:25):
He is a pesky short erstwhile there you go.
Speaker 1 (48:34):
I would have got there eventually.
Speaker 3 (48:38):
Come on, you would have more obscure.
Speaker 2 (48:42):
You would have thought of the the wonderful cartoon from
Nickelodeon from the nineties called Doug and like it's biggest
musical hit, which was called Banging on a trash can.
Speaker 1 (48:55):
There you go. All you would have had to say
was Buzzer wouldn't take his jersey off. I'd just be like, yeah,
I'll do it.
Speaker 3 (49:02):
So Freeman and Altuve are both in their age thirty
five seasons and they Freeman has two three hundred and
fifty six and Altuve has two three hundred and twenty one.
So you know, again on a rate basis, like by
(49:23):
the time Manny is their age, he theoretically would have
more hits right where they're at, but they they he
would be right in that area code like right in
that area code, so you know, any one of them
has a shot. I'd still say it's probably an outside
shot for all of them, but I would be willing
to wager that Manny maybe has the best chance that's
(49:47):
any of them. I don't know, Like.
Speaker 1 (49:49):
I think Freddy might get there. I think Freddy might.
Speaker 2 (49:51):
Get all three.
Speaker 1 (49:52):
I think all three of them are going to do.
You TV's kind of worn down a little bit, But
I shouldn't bet a against him just because Houston will
let him keep running out there exactly. They just like
we will keep running Manny out there at infinitem like
(50:12):
that's not going to change the Dodgers being the most
ruthless could theoretically curtail Freeman if he decreased production at
some point three years down the road. In fact, I'm
going to weigh that. I'm going to weigh that. I'm
going to say Manny and Jose are kind of even steven.
(50:34):
I would probably lean Rafie and slightly favor Manny, And
then I think Freddie has the best chance of getting
crushed by his own organization as at age thirty seven,
he becomes a versus Righty's only DH.
Speaker 2 (50:53):
Well, yeah, Freddy's contract is up way before everybody else's
Freddy's contract because the Dodgers got a frigging steal on
Freddy Freeman. I think he's a free free agent in
twenty twenty eight. Yeah, he runs through twenty twenty seven,
so he'll probably be playing for another team when he
(51:15):
does it. I think the more interesting question boys is
whether or not Xander Bogarts get there, because he's number
ninth on the active leaders in Major League Baseball.
Speaker 1 (51:28):
How many hits do Xander have? Yeah, seventeen hundred and seventy.
He will, He'll get two thousand. He'll get to two thousand,
that's for sure. If he batted with the bases loaded
every time the rest of his career, he would not
come close to two thousand. He would be at seventeen
fifty by the end of his career. The most pathetic
(51:52):
fucking basis literature I've ever seen in my life. But regardless, Yeah, yeah,
Xander's good too.
Speaker 3 (51:59):
Yeah, Sanders, I think I think something that we don't
talk about enough about Manny is like, yeah, he's got
a shot at three thousand hits. He's also got a
shot at five hundred home runs. He does sure, he's
at three fifty six right now. He's fourth on the
list of active players. Can you guys name the three
(52:19):
ahead of him? Gold true active players? What gold gold? Gold?
Schmid is three, he has three seventy. Okay, Salve danton
is one with four hundred and thirty. Number two is
the only one missing.
Speaker 1 (52:45):
Active home run leader happens to be Jose Azocar. We
have got to be Trout.
Speaker 3 (52:59):
It's Mike Track out there. There you go, Mike Trout's
three to one. We have a very interesting grouping where
from Paul Goldschmidt at three seventy down to Andrew McCutcheon
at ten with three twenty seven, there's only you know, fifty.
What is that I can do? Math I promised forty
three home runs between three and ten on the list,
(53:21):
Goldsmith Harper's eight with three forty five. Judge is seven
with three forty seven.
Speaker 1 (53:27):
But that Judge will hit five hundred home runs.
Speaker 3 (53:30):
Judge will hit five hundred home runs.
Speaker 1 (53:31):
Yeah, r Harper will hit five hundred home runs.
Speaker 3 (53:34):
You look at everyone else on the list. You know,
Harper is seventeen hundred games played. Machado has eighteen hundred
games played. Judge is only played in one thousand and
eighty two, so he will he will hit five hundred
home runs, no problem, assuming he stays healthy. But yeah, anyway,
Manny Machado's great. I did if you guys really want
(53:57):
to do some obscure trivia because you were Craig asking like, oh,
Danner might be the least clutch padre in history. I'm
not going by the clutch stat which I think actually
doesn't represent that in the best way possible. I'm going
by run expectancy twenty four, which is essentially all that matters.
(54:20):
Is a batter comes up, what's the run expectancy of
them in that situation? And then after they leave, after
after they're at bad Is over, what is the run
expectancy state now? And is it? Is it better? Okay,
then you add and if it's worse, then you subtract,
and that's it. So it's like, are they leaving the
game in a better worse state from when they come
(54:41):
up to the plate? Xander in his what is It
two and a half seasons as a Padre is twelfth
on the list into the Bad Is in terms of
worse run expected eleven worst padres, so there's eleven worst people.
I wouldn't aggregates, right, yeah, because this is career. This
is career as a padre. So I wouldn't deign to
(55:03):
make you at to to have your names him. But
there are some good names on the list, and so
I'm just curious if you guys have any guesses and
then I'll read it to you. We can do this
for thirty seconds.
Speaker 4 (55:13):
On the list.
Speaker 3 (55:14):
He's not on the list. Trinkersham's on the list.
Speaker 1 (55:16):
Wow, Jack Clark No. No. One season. Yeah, he was
long enough. He's not here long enough. That's fair. That's fair.
Speaker 2 (55:25):
Okay, So they got Sean Uh, they got to be
around Chase Headley.
Speaker 3 (55:31):
That's a good guest. Chase Headley, if you use the
clutch stat is actually the least clutch padre. But that's
like the clutch sat all that all that says is
what is your performance in low and medium leverage situations
versus high leverage situations? Instead of saying how are you
leaving the game, it's it's it's it's not neutral, I
(55:51):
guess is what I was saying.
Speaker 1 (55:52):
For because it's yeah, all right, so give us the list.
Speaker 3 (55:55):
Now, Okay. So I'm working backwards. So starting at eleven,
So uh was I should say? Xander is uh is
twelve in the list with negative nineteen point thirty three
runs okay?
Speaker 1 (56:10):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (56:10):
Nick Hundley at eleven with twenty six point six negative,
Damian Jackson at ten, number number.
Speaker 4 (56:18):
Nine, Manuel more Go, oh yes, eight.
Speaker 3 (56:27):
Enzo Hernandez number eleven, Enzo, this was a surprise to me.
Number seven, Benito Santiago negative.
Speaker 4 (56:37):
Forty one runs wow, okay.
Speaker 3 (56:42):
Six with negative forty two point seven to two.
Speaker 4 (56:45):
Bill Allman, Okay.
Speaker 1 (56:50):
The beginning years were bad.
Speaker 3 (56:51):
Guys, Guys, I've never heard of this man before. I've
never heard of this man.
Speaker 2 (56:57):
You can buy his jersey from the second hand on
ground jersey market. I do know, you know somehow first hand.
Speaker 3 (57:05):
All right, we're in the bottom five now negative negative
negative fifty one runs a catcher by the name of
Fred Kendall.
Speaker 1 (57:14):
Fred Kendall, Jason Kendall's dead. Is Jason Kendall's father right there.
Speaker 3 (57:19):
I did not know that. But he had two stints
with the padres. He was an inaugural padre from nineteen
sixty nine to nineteen seventy six, went to Cleveland, went
to Boston, and then came back and played with the
Padres in nineteen seventy nine and nineteen eighty. Number four
on the list negative fifty seven point two runs. Chris Gomez,
Chris Gomes Yeah, oh me oh, number three on the list.
(57:44):
This is just chef's kiss for me. El Passa's greatest
ever hitter.
Speaker 4 (57:49):
No, no, you love me.
Speaker 3 (57:52):
Austin Hedges is the third worst, negative fifty nine point
eight runs, and then number two on the list the
Wizard Ozzie Smith negative sixty one point eight. Look, he
wasn't a good hitter, like, just what was their first defense?
And number one on the list with negative eighty runs. Fittingly,
(58:14):
I guess Gary Templeton. Oh, Gary Templeton. Yeah, so interesting
list though. You know guys who are on the team
a long time.
Speaker 1 (58:25):
Yeah, you need, you need longevity, Like I just looked
this up. Between nineteen seventy seven and nineteen seventy eight,
Bill Allman had one thousand, one hundred and two at
bats in which he drove in a total of sixty
four runs. So god, yeah, he drove in forty three
(58:48):
runs and six hundred and seventy plate appearances in nineteen
seventy seven, then twenty one in four and forty two
plate appearances, when he had an exact zero point zero
b war so super good, super good, almost thirty seven
hundred at bats in the big leagues and four point
six career war over fifteen years.
Speaker 3 (59:08):
First round pick, he said, first number one overall pick
in the nineteen seventy four draft out of Brown Universities
League Boy.
Speaker 1 (59:22):
In nineteen eighty one, the strike season, someone gave Bill
Allman an MVP vote in the American League for the
Chicago White Sox as he generated a career high two
point one p war hitting three oh one. He finished
nineteenth in the American League in MVP votes. That's that year,
So good on you. Probably an early early frame gud
(59:45):
way to go.
Speaker 3 (59:50):
Oh shit, he was a short stock.
Speaker 1 (59:52):
Yeah, but he was framing again second base. He was
doing a really good job. Yeah. He stole some alcohols
on cat stealing along the way. Beautiful anything else, boys,
before we wrap up this fine edition of thee.
Speaker 3 (01:00:14):
Yeah, so did you send the show?
Speaker 1 (01:00:20):
I did I in the show? Did you in the show?
Speaker 2 (01:00:25):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (01:00:25):
I'm sorry you guys cut out on my end? Are
we still recording too? Are we still here?
Speaker 1 (01:00:29):
I think it's all still there, but I have no
idea what Okay, last fifty seconds, Let's let's leave that.
Speaker 4 (01:00:35):
In the show.
Speaker 3 (01:00:36):
That'll be fun. We'll leave that in for people I wanted,
I wanted. I wanted to add one thing for the show,
which is that as a note to end on and
just to hit Tevin's o rogyness zone, which is that
Nationals fired Dave Martinez and micros O today. So it's
(01:00:56):
like for everyone that was just all up in the
oh the soda trade and we got fucked and all
bah bah. They just fired their GM and their manager
and they suck, and like, yeah, James Wood is great
and C. J. Abrams is exciting, and I'm sure they
would have been Mackenzie Gore. I'm sure the would have helped
the team. But like they're not, they're not in a
good place. Like they lost, like they they they gave
up a generational talent and they lost. So uh that's
(01:01:20):
how I just I just wanted to do.
Speaker 2 (01:01:21):
I mean, David Johnson famously last week said that Psichoach
just don't matter, you know, at all, So I guess
the owner agreed.
Speaker 1 (01:01:31):
Yeah, hey, that's tough luck over there. And then the
Potomac Potomac Cold Dip. You guys can covetch all you
want round here. We're still trying to win the playoff
series and so on and so forth, So we head
toward the all star break. Hey, we'll say it at
(01:01:51):
the end, like we said at the beginning. If you
enjoy the show, thank you for making it to the end.
Give us a five star review on whatever podcast platform
you are using. Also, you can one is Patreon dot
com slash take it to another level until then. For
Chris and Rafie, I'm Craig go Padrais M. S.
The All Star break is almost here, and it's the
perfect time to jump into the community that is padres
hot Tub. Come take advantage of all the things that
Chris and Rafie and I are doing for you for
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(00:23):
for as low as five dollars a month, you can
get access to postgame shows happening after virtually every win,
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the other regular platforms. And actually there's more beyond that.
(00:45):
Just today, just today, Sunday, July sixth, in the morning,
I popped into our Big Patrons channel and said, hey,
I've got three tickets to today's Padres game. Who wants them?
Big Patron, come and get them, And one of them did, Chuckles.
Thank you, Chuckles. You went to the game, Your family
went to the game on us on PHT. It's that
(01:07):
simple stuff like that happens all the time, like every
homestand so find out for yourself. Patreon dot com slash
padre houp. Come join the community and find out that
you made a great decision. Welcome to the podrays Hots Up, everybody.
(01:46):
I'm Craig Elston. Chris Reid's over there, Rafy Canter right
over there. We're all together once again. It's Sunday, July sixth.
The podres just won a series. Hey, threes are good.
Seven games over is good in possession of a playoff
spot currently is good. Good times, guys, good times. We're
(02:11):
here for a good times podcast.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
We always take series wins over Bruce Bochie because that dude.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
Damn, that dude.
Speaker 2 (02:19):
Brings it all the time, that big head of his.
We love sending you on an airplane feeling bad?
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Could I put a put a six pack of beer
in your baseball helmet? Chris?
Speaker 3 (02:32):
Yes, it's not just the beer, it's the ice with
the beer. That's what Terry Kennedy said. It's like you
can maybe fit a six pack in most ballplayers helmets,
but you can't fit it with ice too.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
Oh the good, Well, we've got a good show for
you today. I'd like to think all of our shows
are generally good shows, and this is going to be
another one too. We're going to recap the series against
the Texas Rangers. We're going to talk about three San
Diego Padres going to the Major League Baseball All Star
Game one in the starting lineup. Any questions, cribbled concerns,
(03:09):
we'll get into it. We'll talk about a managerial decision
that was smart and good and then worked holy shit,
really good things works better than bad things. And we'll
talk about one of the critical players for the Padres
postseason hopes coming back. Plus Manny Machado may get to
two thousand by the time you listen to this show.
(03:31):
Who knows if you're one of those folks who waits
a couple of days before you listen to the show.
So all that to come on this episode of Padres
Hota Guys, something funny has happened in terms of it
almost feels like stat manipulation because I saw this stat
in Kevin Acey's newsletter after the last Padres series with
(03:57):
this victory over Texas, which because they lost the series
to San Diego, they're under five hundred. They would have
been over five hundred if they had won. But the
Padres are thirteen to zher in series this year against
losing teams, and they're a sick number against swinning teams.
(04:18):
They're a really bad number againstwinning teams, which I don't
remember and I'll go look up, but it's really bad.
But like part of that is like facing the Blue
Jays at a moment. We faced them when they were losers,
but now they're winners, so they switched columns on us.
You're like the Braves of flip flopped like three times
from the loser to the winner, to the loser to
(04:39):
the winner to the loser column with us. So it's
kind of a weird stat but I'm going to take
this as our launch point. Padres beat the Rangers two
out of three, after they beat the Royals two out
of three at home and the Nationals two out of
three at home. This is what they didn't do in
twenty twenty three when they didn't make the playoff, So
(05:00):
they blew it against losing teams all the time. For
everything that we have said properly critically about the twenty
twenty five Padres, they've done a great job of beating
the teams they're supposed to beat.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
Yeah, just going from the standings today as they stand,
as Craig mentioned, Padres are in a position of wildcard spot.
They are thirty two and eleven this season against teams
that are below five hundred. They are sixteen and thirty
against teams that are five hundred or better. So look, man,
(05:33):
I'm not gonna say, like I'm fine with being sixteen
and thirty, you know, against against good teams. But the
wins all count the same. And that's like what we
have always talked about when we're dropping games against the Rockies,
you know, against the Marlins, against the Royals in the
years past. And you know, I I it matters when
(05:57):
we're talking division, it matters when we're talking wildcard. But
like you know, I could give a shit if we're
winning games against the Rangers or for winning games against
the Yankees in the American League, it doesn't matter. It
all counts the same. So I'm I think in a
weird way like this, if they carry this baseline through
(06:18):
the rest of the season of showing up, competing, taking
care of business against bad teams, and I think that
as the team improves, as they make trades everything, they
clearly can get it up for you know, competition against
better teams. So this is like weirdly encouraging to me.
Then if, as it was in years past, they were
showing up against the good teams and then losing games
(06:39):
against the bad teams, that that would be a little
bit more worrying for me at the stage.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
I'm I'm I'm one foot in with you, Rayfi and
one foot out. I do think the roster needs some
sialis in order to get it up for some of
the better teams, and I think it needs to improve.
But we've talked about them taking the wins that other
teams give them, and it's not always going to be
losing teams that do that, but they're way more likely
(07:07):
to do so. And I don't think Texas is a
bad team at all. You know, they kind of strolled
into the playoffs a couple of years ago and had
a bunch of dice rolls go their way and they
became champions and then last year had a little bit
of a fall down. And I think they're a team
that's right in between those two levels, like right between
(07:28):
just missing the playoffs and right between championship caliber. And
the Padres are two. So this was a big series
to win. They have to get better. We all know
they have to get better. We hope that they will.
But to have this baseline of getting the job done
when you need to, that's where I'm absolutely with you,
(07:51):
and it makes me feel like Roster Reis. I see
mean fangrafts forty four percentage chance to make the playoffs
might be a little low thin. I think Baseball reference
might be a little bit more right. I don't remember
what it is, but but it ultimately end in San Diego.
We are now spoiled little brats who want that next step,
(08:14):
who want that NLDS win and the NLCS win, and
we want to go to our World Series. So I'm
going to be a spoiled little brat a little bit
and continue to hope that they get better. But this
was a lot of fun the series. They did some
smart things. Smart things worked. Fernando Tactis. We've always kind
(08:34):
of thought that maybe he's a bit of an emotional
player and he rides the ups and he kind of
sinks in the lows. Well, today he got named excuse
me not today today, today today, Yeah, today he got
named a National League All Star and He responded by
absolutely coming out and changing a game tonight. So let's
(08:57):
hope the boys ride the highs for a little bit
while all the way through the All Star break.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
I found that number. By the way, I just hate
to say something and then go really bad. That's the critical,
detailed analysis that you come here for at padres hotep
so thirteen and zero in series against losing teams, three
twelve and one in series against winning teams this season,
which perfectly comports to what you said eleven and thirty
(09:26):
or twelve and thirty, whatever that was, that she would
have left it really bad.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
Really, it wasn't enough.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
I mean, three twelve and one is really bad. So
really I was a truthteller on that one. At least
let me start with this because I want to praise
the manager twice. Okay, I don't know why, but Mike
shilt for a week, got this weird idea and has
(09:55):
said a battle lineup that sucked, and he rolled it
out for a week and the and the lineup sucked
pretty much every day in that week, and then he
wrote it in for the next game, and mother nature
intervened and dumped rain on Citizens Bank Ballpark and erased
(10:18):
Tuesday's scheduled game against the Phillies, and then Wednesday morning,
when the game was to be played, he rewrote the
lineup and he put Tatisse back at leadoff, Merril two,
Machado three, arrives four sheets bowguards, you know, and on
the way down the line. And since then the Padres
(10:39):
have scored six one and a loss. But to Christopher Sanchez,
who was dealing three four four, which is better than
zero two one six zero three, which is what the
other ones. The other lineups bore fruits. So thank you
(11:00):
Mike Shildt for not sticking with a lineup that seemed
objectively bad and replacing it and putting to Tease back
at lead off and arise at four. And I think
today's game showed specifically why that works when to tease
reached base stole and score down an a rise single.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
Yeah, I mean that this is something that we talked
about in the weeks past. That was stolen base number
nineteen on the season for Tatis, you know, quietly thirty thirty.
You know, if you can get those logging numbers up
not out of the question, like, uh, he's at what
fifteen home runs now? Like he's halfway there. But for
(11:44):
a team that's not hitting a lot of home runs
on the whole, they need to be stealing bases. And
you know, Lo and behold Tatis getting up getting on
second base. Uh, he was a He got on base
in the in the leadoff spot in that inn, a
Marilyn Machado subsequently got out. He advanced second base with
Machado striking out in the same pitch, but getting on
(12:09):
base so that Arise could be there with two hours
in a single. No matter what is going to score Tatis.
It's everything. It's everything for this team and they need
to be doing it, not just with Tatis but with
other players. But that's the formula, Craig, that's the formula,
and we talked about it on the show. We talked
about it on the golf course a couple of weeks
ago when they first started tingering with the formula, Like
(12:31):
Arise needs to be fourth or fifth for him to
have any impact with those singles.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
Yeah, and Fernando has not actually done the thirty thirty.
I thought he might have in twenty twenty one, but
he only got to twenty five stolen bags in his
forty two home run year. So he's a dude who's
one of the faces of the game. That's why he
got named an All Star. It's only his third selection
(12:57):
in his six years, So congratulations Nando. Yesterday's game, Bruce
Bochie kind of had his team running all over the Boys,
and that fueled a lot of the Rangers' success and
it was glad. It was good to see them, at
least in that situation. And then later in the game
with Bryce Johnson fight that fire with fire because the
(13:21):
team does have a bit of the personnel to be
able to be that team. We just haven't seen the
focus on it. And it would be good if they did.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
The other thing that I gotta give Mike shilt or
maybe the thing Mike did right was read the email
that he got from the front office. I don't care
how the sausage was made. But today, Sunday, July sixth,
in a rubber game where the Podres had their worst
(13:51):
possible options for beginning the game pitching wise, that they've
basically had all year, finally did a thing. They had
David Morgan, the reliever, the right handed reliever, go one
time through the lineup, and then they brought in Kyle
Hart to do quote unquote bulk relief, and it wasn't
(14:12):
like David Morgan was great. In fact, you could make
an argument if we were doing a postgame show that
the moment in Sunday's game was Jake Cronaworth handling one
hundred mile an hour line drive with the bases loaded
in the first inning and making a falling to his
side catch that prevented it from being a three to nothing,
(14:33):
four nothing lead for Texas in the top of the
first kept it at one nothing. You know, Morgan wasn't good,
but Kyle Hert was great. He came in in through
three and two thirds, perfect innings, eleven up, eleven down,
all of the promise of the kbo Cy Young and
everything else realized for one evening at Petco Park, and
(14:57):
Heart gets a win as a result, but pitch as
well for the first time in his Padres career. So
Mike Schilt, mister, hey, he's too stubborn, he's too stuck
in his ways. He's gonna do this, do this, do that.
He used an opener and it worked. He switched the
lineup back and it worked, Thank you, Mike.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
Yeah, Texas was not ready for Kyle Hart at all,
and it may because the Padres didn't announce he was
coming up until like this afternoon. That was a surprise
in our discord, and it had to be a surprise
for Bruce Bochie with David Morgan because we talked about
we talked about him throwing first pitch pastballs and guys
(15:41):
jumping on them, and coming into this game he was
giving up a seven hundred ops at swinging on the
first pitch and a three eighty eight ops all the
other times, and we saw the Rangers jumping on him
the first six batters tonight swung first pitch. So that's
the book on David Morgan. They had prepared for him
(16:03):
a little bit, but when it came to Kyle Hartman,
they had not. They were not ready for that junk.
They weren't ready for him to be locating. Kudos to
Kyle hart keeping those walks at Bay a big old
goose on the afternoon for three point two innings pitch.
So great job for him putting the ball on the
strike zone and trusting his stuff.
Speaker 3 (16:24):
Yeah, I mean, we talk about begging and pleading for
the Padres just to do smart things, and they did one.
They did one tonight. You know, David Morgan on the
season has been averaging ninety seven point eight miles per
hour on his fastball. His second pitch that he throws
the most is a curveball. And so you have a righty,
power pitcher with a curveball, and that's the pitcher that
(16:49):
the Texas Rangers top of the order is facing first
time through. And then you compliment that with a soft
tossing lefty who's bringing a ninety mile an hour sinker
and a sweeper primarily. So it's just completely different looks.
It's making Kyle Hart stuff lay up, and it also
means that the lineup of the Rangers couldn't necessarily be
(17:14):
as prepared. And this was another subtle thing that Mike
Schilt did tonight that I also wanted to shout out.
There could be a matchups argument here that belied this decision,
But I did just want to point out that Adrian
morehone came in in the eighth inning, not Jason Adam.
Jason Adam was the seventh inning pitcher tonight, and Adrian
(17:34):
Morehon came in the eighth. So if that continues as
a trend, something that I would obviously welcome, but yeah,
it just seems like, you know, we're more than halfway
through the season at this point. We have the tape,
we have the data, and I think that maybe inside
the clubhouse, Shilt and Diebola have a little bit more
(17:57):
latitude to navigate and push and pull these lovers as
they need to be pushed and pulled. So yeah, great
job by the coaching staff, and great job by the
pitchers tonight.
Speaker 1 (18:07):
You know, Padres scored three, four and four. Texas is
a good pitching staff. I don't think anyone thinks San
Diego's offense is fixed. It's not. Nothing that we've said
in the previous weeks have fundamentally changed. You know, right now,
as things stand, there are other teams in the National
League that are more well rounded than the San Diego Padres.
(18:30):
And that's why you heard the ESPN broadcasters talking about
at alting. Gonzalez had a mid innings report where he said,
you know, aj Preler will get a bat, and it's
just a question of when and how good a bat
and how much the farm system can allow him to
get the bat that he wants. It's a waiting game.
But the big difference is, you know, that at this point,
(18:54):
we are eighty nine games in and the Padres are
seven games over five hundred. You know, at this time
a year ago, the Padres were not seven games over
five hundred. They were dancing with five hundred. So, you know,
with a team that feels like it's it's less than
(19:16):
or whatever, the Padres were in a better situation and
they've still got that potential improvement yet to come. Just
to let you know, at the eighty nine game mark
last year, which actually was a loss to Texas, the
Padres were forty six and forty three, they were three
games over five hundred, so it's a it's a two
(19:37):
game win in the standing seven up as opposed to
three up.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
The Rangers have had this kind of weird spot the
last few seasons because if you remember, in twenty twenty three,
the Padres swept the Rangers at home, which then tilted
us towards being buyers, and we went and got Rich Hill.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
That team and Choi Jersey wouldn't be in my closet
if not for the sweep of the Rangers.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
Yeah, so you know, and they went on to win
the World Series that year, so hey, maybe they're ubbing
a little bit of magic on us now. But yeah,
this team has tons and tons of room to improve.
We've talked about it. We know what it is. You know,
even the ESPN broadcast tonight was talking about, Wow, this
Padre's bullpen is great. Are they going to have enough
(20:28):
gas to make it to the end of the year.
So the assignment is clear. But I mean this is
as good of a position as we've been in as
any since twenty twenty two, really, so no reason that
it can't keep getting better.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
Well, we can put the Texas series aside then. You know,
we talked about the Friday July fourth walk off on
a postgame show. This is out to the free feed.
But Padres did everything they could to not win that game,
and then Grona Worth bailed them out at the very end.
You know, every time Xander Bogarts is up with the
(21:06):
bases loaded, I just wonder what type of out it's
gonna be. You know, Like today was the hard drive
to the outfield warning track. Whoo. Another one will be
a soft pop up the second. Now there will be
a weak ground ball to third. But maybe the least
clutch Podre in history Xander Bogart's but he does find
(21:29):
a way to contribute an in other directions and the
Padres take two out of three. Stephen Kolla gets knocked around,
he gets sent down. Matt Waldron got knocked around, he
got sent down. But boys, Monday, you Darvish comes to
the San Diego Podres starting rotation against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
(21:49):
I'm intending to go to this game on Monday night,
both because Manny could get two thousand hits and because
I want to see you. I want to hear soldier boy.
You know I you you like. I'm down for all
of it, and I truly believe we need you Darvish
and Michael King to make the playoffs. So this is
(22:10):
part of the wing condition coming back online for San Diego.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
Yeah, Daddy's back and we need him more than ever.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
I mean you, we.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
Talked about you, darbish hopefully putting up what did we
say before the year one hundred and ten innings and.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
He's seventy seventy.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
We have really hedged that a lot. But it's because
his spot in the rotation has been really hard to fill.
I mean, Stephen Kolik, for all his early success, has
been leaving the ball up really badly, and that's resulted
him in the team losing his last six starts. You know,
(22:51):
that's a trend that can't continue. As much as we
think he's found money and gonna be a good padre
for a while, we very much need you Darvish to
be a good padre for a little while as well.
And you know, with the club being kind of weird
about the messaging of his return and my shield doing
(23:12):
the hole, he may, he may not. I am stoked
he's coming back tomorrow. I'm stoked. It's not like a
push towards one start before the All Star Game to
extend his rest, because I think you Darvish knows when
he's ready to go, and at least he knows when
he's willing to try, and him having a little having
(23:33):
it would be two starts before the All Star break
here would go a long way tossuage those concerns.
Speaker 3 (23:43):
Yeah. I thought it was interesting that both Matt Waldron
and Stephen Kullich were optioned to triple A this week.
To me, that that that screams that the Padres have
a certain amount of confidence that you Darvish is going
to be available and b provide a certain amount of
(24:04):
length that they're going to need, you know now, knocking
on all the wood that I have near me. But
you know, players when they get options triple A, they
can't come back up for two weeks unless they are
replacing an injured player. So you know, that could be
part of the calculus for it for them. But yeah,
the Craig, You've been saying it for weeks on the show.
(24:26):
The Padres need you Darvish and Michael King back in
order for them to be a viable playoff team. And uh,
if you Darvish is able to come in and put
up sixty innings for the Padres this season, that's sixty
innings that aren't being thrown frankly by Kyle Hart or
Stephen Kollach or Matt Waldron. And those are sixty vital
(24:48):
innings that the teams are gonna are gonna need because
if you look in the rearview mirror at the wild Card,
there are like four or five teams within breathing distance
of the Padres and they are not. You know, every
team has their own issues. It's the dog days of
Sammar YadA, YadA, YadA. But the Padres starting pitching needs
(25:08):
are acute and their bullpen is taxed. So this is
mission critical for the Padres and use coming at the
perfect time.
Speaker 1 (25:18):
Yeah, right now, the Padres are last year's Guardians, well
winning on pitching and defense, a four person bullpen that's dominant, middling, starting,
winning three two games, winning two to one games, winning
four to three games. Everyone knows you can't win the
World Series doing that, but you can win a regular
(25:39):
season playoff Berth. You can't. You can make a regular
season playoff Berth by being a super you know, bottom
third offense that is carried by a really solid pitching
staff and a team that doesn't beat itself. You can
win ninety games. You can make the playoffs. You can
lose in the playoffs. And right now, that's that's what
(26:00):
I think is the Padres lot Like, We're set to
make the playoffs and lose in the playoffs right now
as one of those teams. That's pretty good. The great
news is, first off, that's not the worst way to
spend the summer. It's enjoying a nice winning season that
culminates in a playoff. Worth and the Padres could improve.
(26:22):
They have the ability to improve and to get to
a spot where for a second straight year. They could
be one of the best teams in the National League.
They were last year they just couldn't score for twenty
four innings against the Dodgers. They could be again this year.
I'm not writing off this year by any means. I
just I'm really clear eyed right now about what this
(26:43):
team is. Right now. We're a marginal winner and there's
a way to take it to a higher level. But
I kind of feel there's a way for the Florida
fall out, I understand, but I feel like this team's
a marginal winner right now. We're the twenty four Guardians,
and we could get to a better spot than that.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
And there's some things that are gonna fall into place
that help improve that. You know, just like twenty twenty three,
there is some freakish luck involved in situational hitting, like
runners in scoring position where the Padres struggled and then
that led to them having, you know, the Pythagorean Championship
(27:22):
this year. There's a couple of things too right now
with nobody out, zero outs in the inning and runners
on first and third guys. It's not many situations, it's
small sample size, but combined with bases loaded and runners
on first and third, their OPS is below four hundred,
(27:45):
their batting average is like one twenty five in those
situations combined, they haven't hit a home run in those situations,
they're barely getting on base with bases loaded, and nobody
out that particulars but is three to oh six. And
then another weird one is how they're hitting left handed pitching.
(28:06):
I'm sorry, I have to believe that the right handed
batters on this team are gonna do better than hit
two twenty six against left handed pitching by.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
The end of the season.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
I have to believe that they're gonna slog better than
three forty eight. I do think that those are things
that are going to improve and coupled with some improvements
to the roster, are going to get us to where
we want to go.
Speaker 3 (28:29):
Yeah, I, Chris, I wanted to. So what was the
situation in which they haven't hit a homer? Is that
you say first and third?
Speaker 1 (28:38):
Both of those I don't believe.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
Let me pull it back up, uh No, bases yeah,
bases loaded they haven't hit a homer, or first and
third they have not hit a home run this.
Speaker 3 (28:49):
Season, so that it's so interesting and.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
Nobody out nobody out, nobody out.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
Okay, but still still so still that to me is
an encapsulation of the Padres approach this season. Because that
their base is loaded, there are runners on first and third,
they're going for the sackfly or the contact to try
and knock base runners in again, on its face, not
a horrible thing, but the fact that like you're never
(29:17):
hitting any home you're not even running into a home run,
like to me screams that like choking up on bats.
They're almost taking like a two strike approach in the
sense of like they're just part trying to put the
ball in play. They're not trying to strike out at
all costs.
Speaker 2 (29:31):
And look, I'm not sure about that because they have
to strike out. I don't know, like it could be, dude,
that that definitely could be. But let's just look at
how many sacrifice flies that has led to. If that's
what they're trying to do, they're not really succeeding. So
(29:52):
like in that situation, Yeah, in first and third, nobody out.
Seven times they've at bats and twelve times they've had
played appearances and twice they've walked, So that means they've
had three sacrifice that means one out of four times
they're successfully doing a sack fly. That's not very good.
(30:14):
And the batting average is only one forty three, so
if they're trying to do that, they're not doing a
very good job at it. Bases loaded nobody out that
it's even worse. It's nine at bats, twelve played appearances
with no walk, so they've also done it three times.
It's the exact sime. Their sacked fly percentage right now
(30:34):
is two fifty, which isn't very good if that's what
they're trying to accomplish.
Speaker 1 (30:40):
That.
Speaker 3 (30:40):
We're still in small sample size city for that. I'm
sorry I didn't realize no appearances, but yeah I did.
Speaker 1 (30:47):
I did.
Speaker 2 (30:47):
Disclaimer it's very small sample size because it's a very
specific situation. But that's also what I'm pointing at, Like,
when that happens, that's gonna win a couple of games,
if like they cash in a couple of those bases
load nobody out moments. If they do that two or
three more times this year, those are multi run events,
(31:08):
you know, and those are that's a win almost you
can't really count it that way exactly, but that's a
win if you throw it to one out those exact
same situations any like runner bases loaded one out five
twenty one ops, one out runners on second and third
three forty nine ops. And the sample sizes are larger
(31:32):
on that. You know it may be approach based, dude.
I just I'm not in any place to know or guess,
because that's so in the hitters meeting, you know that
they're talking about the situation there. I don't know if
it's just them getting the yips in the situation, but
alls I'm saying is as that sample size grows better,
(31:53):
they're going to improve and that's going to lead to
a few more wins on the margins.
Speaker 1 (32:01):
Let's switch things up. All star rosters announced today. Padres
get three All Stars for the twenty twenty five National
League team. We already knew Manny Mitchatta would be the
starting third baseman. That was the obviously right move. Just
would like to note for the record that in his
column on the Athletic Ken Rosenthal listed Manny Machatta as
the third choice third baseman behind ah au Haanio Suarez,
(32:26):
and Max Munsey. So just want to let you know.
Speaker 2 (32:30):
They I'd also like to know. I'd like to note
that Neil Fuck that guy. Mark Grant said it best.
Manny Machado's a better third baseman than Max Munsey. Mark
Grant knows more than Ken Rosenthal.
Speaker 1 (32:43):
We all know he knows Paul and uh they're both
better than Swarez. So just it's whatever, Manny starting the
third and Many'll get to two thousand hits. If it's
not Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Many will be at two thousand hits.
Many has a good shot at three thousand hits. We'll
talk about that a little bit more later in the show.
(33:06):
Jason Adam was named as a reliever. I do not
have a problem with this at all. Jason Adam has
had an all star season. Adrian Mordihone is probably the
best reliever on the Padres team. Recency bias would certainly
suggest that is he had a He's perfect since May
(33:30):
in terms of allowing runs. He didn't allow a run
in June or is not yet in July. But I
don't have a problem with Jason Adam making the team
and him making it over Suarez. I think is objectively
the right call.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
Yeah, for sure, I completely agree with you there and
Jason Adam. It should be noted availability is like the
best ability, best ability, yes right, yeah, yeah, is the
famous saying. And he leads the major leagues and games
played in appearances. So that's good. That said, Adrian got
(34:09):
totally host and he should be in there, he should
be making his All Star debut.
Speaker 1 (34:14):
I'm sorry.
Speaker 3 (34:16):
Yeah, you know, I have to hope that Adrian's going
to be our closer next year, and you know he'll
he'll get that nice juicy stave statistic that everyone loves.
But I think you guys already said it, like Adam's
tied for first in terms of appearances and I was
his forty fourth game of the season, already eighty nine
games in, and you know, look, it's the All Star Game.
(34:39):
It is what it is. It's always going to be
about era, like it just is. And and Adam coming
in to tonight I had a one sixty five. I
haven't even seen what the updated stat is right now,
but that's that's always going to be king. And so
he now has a one sixty one er. So they
(35:00):
told a nice anecdote on the broadcast. I have you
guys heard that he apparently was in church this morning.
Speaker 1 (35:08):
Which yes, I read that in AC's story That's probably
where they got it for the broadcast, that he was
singing in church, not just that he was in church,
but he was in full voice with his beloved family
by his side when the phone rang, and then he
was worried that he was about to be traded, or
(35:31):
his wife was. I think that's what it said in
the story. His wife was worried, because of course Jason
would not be worried meant a conviction in faith, but
that he then walked out blasphemously of the church to
take the call to find out that his petty, selfish
gain had been achieved, that he had reached the All
(35:52):
Star Game, at which point he went back in to
confess his sense.
Speaker 2 (35:56):
Believe that man alone, he hates child abuse.
Speaker 1 (36:03):
We would definitely have some really spirited discussions if the
two and I got in a room and it ever
varied veered towards the events of each other.
Speaker 2 (36:13):
I think you'd eventually like each other. You might not
reach an understanding, but I think you'd reach an affinity.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
Potentially. And is that privilege based that he would listen
to me to accept that, I don't know. Nonetheless, he's
a great picture for the San Diego Padres and by
the way, PhD patrons and I'm one of them, have
been pledging five dollars per Jason Adams strikeout from last
(36:41):
week to the end of the year to benefit the
Trevor Project. And if anybody that is listening would like
to get on that train, please do and join us
Patreon dot com, slash Padres hotub. Get in there and
do it, or do it on your own if you
want to. But we're trying to do something along the
along the way here.
Speaker 2 (37:02):
I do selfishly wish Jason Adam had a full All
Star break rest ahead of him considering that usage, I'm
still worried about the guy come October. I know he's
not much over his career high, but you know, Fernando
going in. I'm not worried about Manny needing a break,
but I am worried that Nando has been nursing some
(37:24):
things and could have really used the break. And I
do feel the same about Adam a little bit selfishly.
Speaker 3 (37:31):
Two things to say about Adam Dell Star Game. First
of all, gay rights. Second of all, I think that
every Padres pitcher, Padre's reliever, excuse me, every Padres reliever
who makes the All Star Game should be forced to
run in from the bullpen and slide like he fell.
(37:51):
And I think that if that became a thing that
like Padres pitchers did that, like that would be just
like a cool thing that people would get ampts about,
and it would be another reason why people liked Padres.
I would be worried about a potential il stint that
would come off of a dislocation or something. Some of
these guys know how to slide because they haven't run
the bases in like twenty years. But hey, it could
(38:13):
be cool, It really could.
Speaker 1 (38:16):
Jason Adams a deserving reliever, and if you're going to
put in a non closer, Adam's as good a pick
as any. Morohan would have been a great pick too,
Maybe he gets a call next year. For now, to
Tatist Junior are going to his third All Star Game,
and guys, to me, this is just a matter of
your thirty thousand foot view or your up close view,
(38:36):
because obviously up close for two months, Tatis has been struggling.
We've been seeing it day by day by day, and
if you take the thirty thousand foot view, every team
in baseball would like to tease in right field for them,
So you know, he's an All Star almost every team.
I'm sure there's a right fielder out there that would
win qualitatively, but I think every team in the league
(38:58):
would like to tease on their team.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
One hundred percent. One hundred percent. And Major League Baseball
likes having him as a face of the game because
he's charismatic. He fans absolutely adore the dude. I'm as
critical as anybody about Fernando Tatist Junior, but at the
end of the day, I am absolutely stoked he's going
because he should be there just about every year. His
(39:24):
production is all Star caliber. It's been a rough few months,
but like the dude responded tonight, he got the All
Star car, the All Star call, and came out and
played like an All Star, And you know, I think
it bodes well for him, and I'm you know, I
(39:44):
may be a bit of a homer with it. I
know Juan Soto didn't get the call, and Wan Soto
has been the best hitter in Major League Baseball for
a little over a month now, and he also is
a face of the game. But you know what, he
can he can go count his money on the All
Star break and he'll be just fine.
Speaker 3 (40:03):
So I want to point this out because I think
some of the Tatis discourse it has tilted, you know,
quite far in one direction, which is that like he's
you know, not performing well and he's underperforming. And yeah,
ever since he got hit in Pittsburgh, like YadA, YadA, YadA,
(40:24):
he's still even with all of this, which Pittsburgh was
two months ago. By the way, he's still top ten
in baseball in f WAR like he is tenth. He's
literally tenth with three point five and that doesn't even
count tonight's stats, which invariably are going to raise them.
And if you start on May second, which is the
(40:47):
day that he got injured into Pittsburgh, he's still been
worth one point four f WAR, which is you know,
it's not it's not It's definitely not tenth in baseball
at that time, I'll tell you that much. But it's
not bad. It's not bad to have a superstar month
and then be solid. And I know we want more,
(41:08):
we expect more, We just we just know we know
what he's capable of. But there's part of me that
does feel that the narrative has gone a little bit
too far in the other way of like, oh, he's
actually not that good right now, like Franti is actually
still pretty amazing, and like you said, Greg, any team
would want to have him.
Speaker 2 (41:24):
And race like, do you take a left fielder who
hits like Elisdas but plays defense like Tattoos and right
now do you take him in left field?
Speaker 3 (41:38):
No?
Speaker 2 (41:40):
Okay, all right, I don't I miss having a great
defensive left fielder. Jerks And was solid last year, but man,
watching Wyatt Langford play left field in Petco Park this
week made me really miss elite defense.
Speaker 4 (41:56):
Well, we.
Speaker 3 (41:59):
The player you just described, the guy who hits like
Elis Diaz and plays a good defense, his name is
Brandon Lockridge. We already have he doesn't.
Speaker 2 (42:07):
No, he's not playing on the team because he made
two crucial errors in a week that one of them
arguably cost them a game.
Speaker 1 (42:16):
Right No, I mean, yeah, Raf, he's not wrong. He
kind of hit like Alests. Chris is not wrong. He
was worse. He was worse than didn't play elite defense.
So you're both right to some extent on that commentary,
the Potters need a better left fielder slash DH. You know,
(42:40):
Sheets has actually been pretty decent in left field. So
it's so fun.
Speaker 2 (42:45):
Even though he can't throw a ball up to our
suite in the Western Metal Supply Building, even though he's
incapable of hitting us, even though he clangs it off
of the balcony, we love him out there.
Speaker 1 (43:02):
A couple more things before we wrap up. You know,
the Padres have seven more games on this home stand.
They've got a four game set against Arizona. They're going
to wrap up with three against the Phillies at two
and one. You know, I said going in that five
and five would be a homestand I'd accept. Chris said
seven and three. Obviously, I'd prefer six and four now
that you started two and one, because I'd prefer not
(43:24):
to lose, you know, go three and four over the
next seven games. And as we said before the home
stand started, ravy. When distribution matters, this Arizona series matters.
And if you take three out of four from Arizona
right here, honestly, you do a lot to disrupt their
(43:44):
chances to make the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (43:47):
Yeah, I mean they're at twenty percent playoff odds right
now according to Fangraft. I'm trying to see for the
wild card there four and a half games behind us
for the last while card spot. So if you minus
two that by going three and one against them six
and a half out going into the All Star Break.
(44:09):
I mean, that's a really hard argument to make to
the fan base that certainly as buyers, that would be
a typical argument, but honestly that they shouldn't sell, that
they shouldn't sell Za Gallon or you know, Josh Naylor
potentially or any of the other people who are coming
up on expiring contracts. So yeah, and it should be
(44:31):
worth saying Diamondbacks very unlikely to trade with us. But
if they are on the market, simple supply and demand,
that's another supplier of a seller that is going to
lower the prices of other teams who potentially would trade
with us. So even if we aren't going to necessarily
acquire the Diamondbacks players themselves, it benefits us for them
(44:53):
to be available on the market.
Speaker 1 (45:00):
Go ahead, Chris, No, that's all I got, like fervent agreement. Well,
let's see it all plays out and wrap with a
couple of quick things. Manny Monday may get two hits
for two thousand, he offered on Sunday when he had
a shot on National TV. And on his thirty third birthday,
(45:23):
as Tony Gwin Junior discussed, I heard him on the
radio last week, even his dad, even the greatest hitter
that we've ever seen. When he got close to three thousand.
You know, he didn't want to do that in Montreal.
You wanted to get that hit in Saint Louis. Didn't
work out for because the grip the bat a little
(45:45):
bit tighter. So I'm really hoping that Manuel will cover
this in the next series to be sure, right, we
need many hits to score runs. It's really important. So
hopefully Monday he gets two more hits for two thousand
and Rafie, you kind of put in a little bit
of a statistical analysis of Manny's chances to get to
(46:07):
three thousand.
Speaker 3 (46:10):
Yeah, I think he's gonna make it.
Speaker 1 (46:12):
I think he's gonna do it.
Speaker 3 (46:15):
So he is under contract with the Padres through his
age forty season, so and it should be worth saying
that so far in his career that in one thy
nine hundred and ninety eight hits, and he has done
so in I had it brought up one eight hundred
and twenty three games, so that is a rate basis
(46:38):
of one point zero nine to seven hits per game
in his career. Now, of course, that was as a
young kid, in entering the prime of his career, through
the prime of his career as he ages, it probably
is a little bit unrealistic to expect that he's going
to keep that same pace. Let's say, for the sake
of argument, he does keep that same pace. That means
(46:59):
it would take him an another nine hundred and twelve
games to get to three thousand, which is a little
bit more than five and a half seasons. It's like
five and two thirds of a season basically, So you
know it's possible. He's I mean like he has he's
under contract for their seven eight more years, so like
he has the ability to play, assuming he is playable
(47:21):
and the Padres aren't tfaying him. I want to do
a little trivia corner. Can you guys name there so many?
Machado's fifth among active players in terms of hits. Who
are the other four ahead of him?
Speaker 1 (47:36):
I got to disqualify. I'm looking at the list, How
are you okay? Craig Freddy Freeman is number one, McCutcheon
is on the list, he is.
Speaker 3 (47:53):
He's number three.
Speaker 1 (47:55):
Yeah, shoot, now I'm going to struggle a little bit more.
That's all right. I saw the Sefie boys from Arizona
who had to move away from the gold Schmid.
Speaker 3 (48:08):
There you go was four, so you're missing number two.
Speaker 1 (48:12):
That's it, right, just one one missing.
Speaker 3 (48:15):
More one more, one more player second on the list.
Speaker 1 (48:18):
Shoot, give me a hint.
Speaker 3 (48:25):
He is a pesky short erstwhile there you go.
Speaker 1 (48:34):
I would have got there eventually.
Speaker 3 (48:38):
Come on, you would have more obscure.
Speaker 2 (48:42):
You would have thought of the the wonderful cartoon from
Nickelodeon from the nineties called Doug and like it's biggest
musical hit, which was called Banging on a trash can.
Speaker 1 (48:55):
There you go. All you would have had to say
was Buzzer wouldn't take his jersey off. I'd just be like, yeah,
I'll do it.
Speaker 3 (49:02):
So Freeman and Altuve are both in their age thirty
five seasons and they Freeman has two three hundred and
fifty six and Altuve has two three hundred and twenty one.
So you know, again on a rate basis, like by
(49:23):
the time Manny is their age, he theoretically would have
more hits right where they're at, but they they he
would be right in that area code like right in
that area code, so you know, any one of them
has a shot. I'd still say it's probably an outside
shot for all of them, but I would be willing
to wager that Manny maybe has the best chance that's
(49:47):
any of them. I don't know, Like.
Speaker 1 (49:49):
I think Freddy might get there. I think Freddy might.
Speaker 2 (49:51):
Get all three.
Speaker 1 (49:52):
I think all three of them are going to do.
You TV's kind of worn down a little bit, But
I shouldn't bet a against him just because Houston will
let him keep running out there exactly. They just like
we will keep running Manny out there at infinitem like
(50:12):
that's not going to change the Dodgers being the most
ruthless could theoretically curtail Freeman if he decreased production at
some point three years down the road. In fact, I'm
going to weigh that. I'm going to weigh that. I'm
going to say Manny and Jose are kind of even steven.
(50:34):
I would probably lean Rafie and slightly favor Manny, And
then I think Freddie has the best chance of getting
crushed by his own organization as at age thirty seven,
he becomes a versus Righty's only DH.
Speaker 2 (50:53):
Well, yeah, Freddy's contract is up way before everybody else's
Freddy's contract because the Dodgers got a frigging steal on
Freddy Freeman. I think he's a free free agent in
twenty twenty eight. Yeah, he runs through twenty twenty seven,
so he'll probably be playing for another team when he
(51:15):
does it. I think the more interesting question boys is
whether or not Xander Bogarts get there, because he's number
ninth on the active leaders in Major League Baseball.
Speaker 1 (51:28):
How many hits do Xander have? Yeah, seventeen hundred and seventy.
He will, He'll get two thousand. He'll get to two thousand,
that's for sure. If he batted with the bases loaded
every time the rest of his career, he would not
come close to two thousand. He would be at seventeen
fifty by the end of his career. The most pathetic
(51:52):
fucking basis literature I've ever seen in my life. But regardless, Yeah, yeah,
Xander's good too.
Speaker 3 (51:59):
Yeah, Sanders, I think I think something that we don't
talk about enough about Manny is like, yeah, he's got
a shot at three thousand hits. He's also got a
shot at five hundred home runs. He does sure, he's
at three fifty six right now. He's fourth on the
list of active players. Can you guys name the three
(52:19):
ahead of him? Gold true active players? What gold gold? Gold?
Schmid is three, he has three seventy. Okay, Salve danton
is one with four hundred and thirty. Number two is
the only one missing.
Speaker 1 (52:45):
Active home run leader happens to be Jose Azocar. We
have got to be Trout.
Speaker 3 (52:59):
It's Mike Track out there. There you go, Mike Trout's
three to one. We have a very interesting grouping where
from Paul Goldschmidt at three seventy down to Andrew McCutcheon
at ten with three twenty seven, there's only you know, fifty.
What is that I can do? Math I promised forty
three home runs between three and ten on the list,
(53:21):
Goldsmith Harper's eight with three forty five. Judge is seven
with three forty seven.
Speaker 1 (53:27):
But that Judge will hit five hundred home runs.
Speaker 3 (53:30):
Judge will hit five hundred home runs.
Speaker 1 (53:31):
Yeah, r Harper will hit five hundred home runs.
Speaker 3 (53:34):
You look at everyone else on the list. You know,
Harper is seventeen hundred games played. Machado has eighteen hundred
games played. Judge is only played in one thousand and
eighty two, so he will he will hit five hundred
home runs, no problem, assuming he stays healthy. But yeah, anyway,
Manny Machado's great. I did if you guys really want
(53:57):
to do some obscure trivia because you were Craig asking like, oh,
Danner might be the least clutch padre in history. I'm
not going by the clutch stat which I think actually
doesn't represent that in the best way possible. I'm going
by run expectancy twenty four, which is essentially all that matters.
(54:20):
Is a batter comes up, what's the run expectancy of
them in that situation? And then after they leave, after
after they're at bad Is over, what is the run
expectancy state now? And is it? Is it better? Okay,
then you add and if it's worse, then you subtract,
and that's it. So it's like, are they leaving the
game in a better worse state from when they come
(54:41):
up to the plate? Xander in his what is It
two and a half seasons as a Padre is twelfth
on the list into the Bad Is in terms of
worse run expected eleven worst padres, so there's eleven worst people.
I wouldn't aggregates, right, yeah, because this is career. This
is career as a padre. So I wouldn't deign to
(55:03):
make you at to to have your names him. But
there are some good names on the list, and so
I'm just curious if you guys have any guesses and
then I'll read it to you. We can do this
for thirty seconds.
Speaker 4 (55:13):
On the list.
Speaker 3 (55:14):
He's not on the list. Trinkersham's on the list.
Speaker 1 (55:16):
Wow, Jack Clark No. No. One season. Yeah, he was
long enough. He's not here long enough. That's fair. That's fair.
Speaker 2 (55:25):
Okay, So they got Sean Uh, they got to be
around Chase Headley.
Speaker 3 (55:31):
That's a good guest. Chase Headley, if you use the
clutch stat is actually the least clutch padre. But that's
like the clutch sat all that all that says is
what is your performance in low and medium leverage situations
versus high leverage situations? Instead of saying how are you
leaving the game, it's it's it's it's not neutral, I
(55:51):
guess is what I was saying.
Speaker 1 (55:52):
For because it's yeah, all right, so give us the list.
Speaker 3 (55:55):
Now, Okay. So I'm working backwards. So starting at eleven,
So uh was I should say? Xander is uh is
twelve in the list with negative nineteen point thirty three
runs okay?
Speaker 1 (56:10):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (56:10):
Nick Hundley at eleven with twenty six point six negative,
Damian Jackson at ten, number number.
Speaker 4 (56:18):
Nine, Manuel more Go, oh yes, eight.
Speaker 3 (56:27):
Enzo Hernandez number eleven, Enzo, this was a surprise to me.
Number seven, Benito Santiago negative.
Speaker 4 (56:37):
Forty one runs wow, okay.
Speaker 3 (56:42):
Six with negative forty two point seven to two.
Speaker 4 (56:45):
Bill Allman, Okay.
Speaker 1 (56:50):
The beginning years were bad.
Speaker 3 (56:51):
Guys, Guys, I've never heard of this man before. I've
never heard of this man.
Speaker 2 (56:57):
You can buy his jersey from the second hand on
ground jersey market. I do know, you know somehow first hand.
Speaker 3 (57:05):
All right, we're in the bottom five now negative negative
negative fifty one runs a catcher by the name of
Fred Kendall.
Speaker 1 (57:14):
Fred Kendall, Jason Kendall's dead. Is Jason Kendall's father right there.
Speaker 3 (57:19):
I did not know that. But he had two stints
with the padres. He was an inaugural padre from nineteen
sixty nine to nineteen seventy six, went to Cleveland, went
to Boston, and then came back and played with the
Padres in nineteen seventy nine and nineteen eighty. Number four
on the list negative fifty seven point two runs. Chris Gomez,
Chris Gomes Yeah, oh me oh, number three on the list.
(57:44):
This is just chef's kiss for me. El Passa's greatest
ever hitter.
Speaker 4 (57:49):
No, no, you love me.
Speaker 3 (57:52):
Austin Hedges is the third worst, negative fifty nine point
eight runs, and then number two on the list the
Wizard Ozzie Smith negative sixty one point eight. Look, he
wasn't a good hitter, like, just what was their first defense?
And number one on the list with negative eighty runs. Fittingly,
(58:14):
I guess Gary Templeton. Oh, Gary Templeton. Yeah, so interesting
list though. You know guys who are on the team
a long time.
Speaker 1 (58:25):
Yeah, you need, you need longevity, Like I just looked
this up. Between nineteen seventy seven and nineteen seventy eight,
Bill Allman had one thousand, one hundred and two at
bats in which he drove in a total of sixty
four runs. So god, yeah, he drove in forty three
(58:48):
runs and six hundred and seventy plate appearances in nineteen
seventy seven, then twenty one in four and forty two
plate appearances, when he had an exact zero point zero
b war so super good, super good, almost thirty seven
hundred at bats in the big leagues and four point
six career war over fifteen years.
Speaker 3 (59:08):
First round pick, he said, first number one overall pick
in the nineteen seventy four draft out of Brown Universities
League Boy.
Speaker 1 (59:22):
In nineteen eighty one, the strike season, someone gave Bill
Allman an MVP vote in the American League for the
Chicago White Sox as he generated a career high two
point one p war hitting three oh one. He finished
nineteenth in the American League in MVP votes. That's that year,
So good on you. Probably an early early frame gud
(59:45):
way to go.
Speaker 3 (59:50):
Oh shit, he was a short stock.
Speaker 1 (59:52):
Yeah, but he was framing again second base. He was
doing a really good job. Yeah. He stole some alcohols
on cat stealing along the way. Beautiful anything else, boys,
before we wrap up this fine edition of thee.
Speaker 3 (01:00:14):
Yeah, so did you send the show?
Speaker 1 (01:00:20):
I did I in the show? Did you in the show?
Speaker 2 (01:00:25):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (01:00:25):
I'm sorry you guys cut out on my end? Are
we still recording too? Are we still here?
Speaker 1 (01:00:29):
I think it's all still there, but I have no
idea what Okay, last fifty seconds, Let's let's leave that.
Speaker 4 (01:00:35):
In the show.
Speaker 3 (01:00:36):
That'll be fun. We'll leave that in for people I wanted,
I wanted. I wanted to add one thing for the show,
which is that as a note to end on and
just to hit Tevin's o rogyness zone, which is that
Nationals fired Dave Martinez and micros O today. So it's
(01:00:56):
like for everyone that was just all up in the
oh the soda trade and we got fucked and all
bah bah. They just fired their GM and their manager
and they suck, and like, yeah, James Wood is great
and C. J. Abrams is exciting, and I'm sure they
would have been Mackenzie Gore. I'm sure the would have helped
the team. But like they're not, they're not in a
good place. Like they lost, like they they they gave
up a generational talent and they lost. So uh that's
(01:01:20):
how I just I just wanted to do.
Speaker 2 (01:01:21):
I mean, David Johnson famously last week said that Psichoach
just don't matter, you know, at all, So I guess
the owner agreed.
Speaker 1 (01:01:31):
Yeah, hey, that's tough luck over there. And then the
Potomac Potomac Cold Dip. You guys can covetch all you
want round here. We're still trying to win the playoff
series and so on and so forth, So we head
toward the all star break. Hey, we'll say it at
(01:01:51):
the end, like we said at the beginning. If you
enjoy the show, thank you for making it to the end.
Give us a five star review on whatever podcast platform
you are using. Also, you can one is Patreon dot
com slash take it to another level until then. For
Chris and Rafie, I'm Craig go Padrais M. S.
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