The Padres don't get swept...or no-hit...so that's nice!

Craig and Chris talk about the lackluster week that was for the San Diego Padres and mourn the ghosts of the lamentable lineup, Then the boys - with Raphie's ratings- get out the Concern-o-meter and might surprise with their hopes for the unit.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Podres hot Tub is a listener supported community podcast, and
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(00:24):
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group therapy shows weekly that are recorded with our patrons
in front of our patrons on our discord, and they

(00:44):
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(01:06):
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Speaker 2 (01:29):
Did I buy that time?

Speaker 1 (01:30):
Whoops? That was bad, But this one it won't be.
So check it out. Patreon dot com slash padres Hoteb.

(01:51):
Welcome to the padres Hoteb everybody. Craig Elliston Chris Reid
Rafie Canter sends his regards. He is uh a national traveler,
once again, jet setter, national traveler, moving, grooving, writing words,
getting getting his name listed as the primary writer on

(02:12):
season two, episode ten of Poker Face. I think once
that writing credit came out, Chris Rafie just officially decided.

Speaker 2 (02:20):
Too cool for school.

Speaker 1 (02:21):
Don't have to show up on Sunday anymore.

Speaker 2 (02:23):
Yeah, he has done zero main show since his credited
episode released, So definitely a pattern.

Speaker 1 (02:30):
To watch hard facts, Hard facts, right there, Rafe Just
you know it's up to you.

Speaker 2 (02:36):
Just like it's up to.

Speaker 1 (02:36):
The Padres court hitters.

Speaker 3 (02:38):
As we'll discuss letter in the show, it's up to you,
Rafe as a core contributor to turn things around. All right,
very very quick housekeeping before we get into an episode
that I hope won't be too bleak. But you know,
we are where we aren't in the season right now
for the San Diego Padres.

Speaker 1 (02:56):
First up, Chris. For our patrons, phdans new one coming up.

Speaker 2 (03:01):
Soon, We have one imminent. Basically we're trying to fill
it right now. It's the Padres Hot to Summer pot luck,
and that's exactly what it sounds like. We're going to
have a table, a digital virtual table that you come
on in, you PLoP down what you would like to

(03:21):
bring to the party and what we'll do over the
course of one afternoon. We are targeting the first week.
We were targeting that that July fourth weekend. Not sure
we're going to get there, but we'll open it over
the course of three or four hours. And if you haven't,
if you are, if you're a baseball card collector from
the nineties and aughts like I was, you might not

(03:43):
have heard of breaks. Basically, the idea is is that
boxes are so expensive now, it's a little burdensome to
buy the whole thing, and especially if you only collect
a team or two, you know that's a little leugh.
So what you do is you split them up and
uh and you sign each person in the break a
spot and that spot usually corresponds to one team. But

(04:05):
we're gonna be doing a little different this time. It's
pretty self explanatory. It sounds complicated, but it's not. If
you're in the discord, head on over to the Baseball
Cards PhD Breaks channel and I'll help happily help you
get started and get you in on this one because
it's gonna be a lot of fun. It's gonna be
a lot of time. We're gonna be We're gonna be

(04:26):
spending a lot of time cracking wlax and I can't wait.

Speaker 1 (04:30):
Second and final thing in housekeeping is that busy boy
these days with three regular podcasts, including Chris and I,
I have restarted the television streaming review podcast called Crossing Streams.
So I had been doing that with a rotating group
of co hosts from really I want to say late

(04:53):
twenty nineteen till the end of twenty twenty three, and
then last year I took it off when I was
doing the radio show, but it's back now and Chris
is working with me as a regular co host. So please,
if you used to listen to it, or if you
thought about it, check it out available wherever you get
your podcasts. Crossing Streams is back. This week, we talked
about Netflix's Department Q and offered some very early thoughts

(05:17):
on The Bear, which next week we'll be reviewing season
four of The Bear, So check it out. Join us
for the ride, get a lot of great TV commentary,
get a lot of great TV recommendations, and for the
shows that you enjoy that we cover, you know, you
get that conversation that you usually can't have with your
coworkers because they never watch the same things as you.
So that's Crossing Streams. Also, if you're a San Diego

(05:37):
FC fan, you know that team that's leading the Western
Conference and just got nine points in three matches on
the road.

Speaker 2 (05:46):
That team.

Speaker 1 (05:48):
I'm also part of a brand new San Diego FC
podcast called the chro Maniacs. Chro Maniacs check it out.
It's myself Tony Sanchez from San Diego Pluto Football and
Alex Pana, who's a member of our podres of Discord
but also writes a substack called Chromatic FC. We cover
everything San Diego FC. It comes out on Thursdays. It's
available on YouTube, and it's available wherever you get your podcasts.

(06:09):
So Chromaniacs, crossing Streams, padres, hot tub what do you need?
Anything else? Unsubscribed from now you can listen to whatever
you want, but please subscribe.

Speaker 2 (06:18):
To You don't need that pod Save America. You don't
need that. I no need Mark Maron.

Speaker 1 (06:23):
Those guys are washed, washed, we're based there was Yeah, okay,
housekeeping done. Thank you for your patience. You might look
back at you might look back wistfully at the golden
times before we had to talk about the podres. Okay,
So podres have been in survival mode, Chris. We talked

(06:45):
about it on the last main show with Rafie and myself.
You know, thirteen and thirteen through that stretch of twenty
six games in twenty seven days, and then you looked
ahead in the schedule and you go, my god, nothing's
getting easier. A road trip in the middle of the
summer to Cincinnati is a tough place to go. Going
to Philadelphia in the middle of the summer is usually
death and then you're coming home for a three game,

(07:07):
three team, ten game homestand before the All Star break,
no breaks in it, and it's Texas, Arizona and the Phillies.
So I mean, I saw this coming from the beginning
of June. We knew it was going to be six
seven weeks of really really tough baseball. And so before

(07:28):
we get into all the minutia, critiques, questions, concerns, I
do want to still frontline that from thirteen to thirteen
to fourteen and fifteen. But that's not dead, that's not
out of it, and so far in this set that
I probably will accept five hundred. When it's all said

(07:50):
and done, they're still kind of right there.

Speaker 2 (07:55):
They're still right there. They're second place in the NL West,
and when you look at all the teams that they
are going to be competing against, not just in the division,
because they're already seven games behind the Dodgers in the division,
the second highest lead in Major League Baseball behind the

(08:15):
ALE Central, but when they're when you look at their
wild card competition, there's nobody standing out. There's a lot
of teams that can go either way. I mean, we're
going to see them fall in and out the second
and third slot over the course of the next month
as they play ball and as some teams get hot,
Like right now, the Milwaukee Brewers are the hot team.

(08:38):
They're eight and two in their last ten, so they're
a half game above the Padres. Padres are six and
four in their last ten. Cardinals, same thing. They're a
half game ahead. Excuse me, they're a full game ahead
of the Padres after today and they're seven and three,
so they're playing the hot ball. The Padres are right
in the thick of it. But the they have three

(09:00):
excuse me, two other teams, the Giants and the Reds
within a game and a half of them in that
that four not in the playoff spot. So it's gonna
be thick, it's gonna be contentious. Buckle up. This is
how Major League Baseball playoff structure is gonna conclude our
seasons every year from here on out. And that what

(09:22):
they did in the beginning of the year getting off
to that seven game win streak, it's allowed them to
have this in the budget. Now is that budget starting
to get stretched? Like are they picking up the phones
and going through their Rolodex and looking for investors who
might be able to help them get a few more
things in post. Yes, yes, they're doing that. Like that budget.

(09:46):
As far as wins losses goes, they it's just about
gone the surplus and you're a four game losing streak
from being in a really tough spot. But that's not
where they're at. There have been playing competitive ball. They've
been playing dead average, mediocre, you know, baseball five hundred

(10:09):
baseball for a while now, and that's kind of how
we had them projected before the season started. When we
learned Martine Maldonado and Jason Hayward were the plans, we
filmed our predictions episodes and we sounded a little, a
little freddy, a little anxious about where things were going
because we saw stretches like this coming, and with the

(10:30):
back third of the lineup being as bad as it
is and with our stars performing as boringly as they have,
we're going to find ourselves in stretches like this.

Speaker 1 (10:46):
We'll see. That's the thing again. They're hanging on. But
I thank you Padres fans who have known this podcast
for long time, and I know we still get new listeners,
you know, every show every week. But for the folks
who have been there for the long time, for the
long haul, or followed me to and from radio, I
think you know that I like to keep it straight

(11:07):
with you, and at the beginning of the year I
kept it very straight with some really serious optimism. I
thought this was a damn good team. For over forty games,
which is representative of half of the games played for
the Padres this year. They rank twenty ninth in the

(11:28):
league in OPS and slugging that they are low in OBP.
I think they're twenty sixth in OBP, thirtieth and slugging
twenty ninth in OPS. They haven't been a struggling offense.
They've been a bad offense. They've been a bottom five

(11:50):
type offense. Yeah, for a while. And the thing that
truly concerns me, and I think this weekend's games perfectly
crystallized to my concerns, is that the way the Padres
have been winning is unsustainable. You cannot count on your

(12:13):
bullpen to preserve every one run lead. You can't keep
scoring one, two and three runs and say, well, we've
got a starting staff that doesn't have Michael King, doesn't
have you Darvish as Dylan Ceeese half in, half out,
doing the hokey pokey every time he gets up on
the mound. The rest of the rest of the rotation

(12:35):
is filled with guys that have very little Major League
experienced and run hot and cold just depending on how
they get out of bed the day of their start.
And we're gonna ride that across the finish line, and
in doing so, we're gonna outpace teams like the Giants
and the Reds and the Brewers and the Phillies and

(12:55):
the Mets, all the teams that are in the race
with us here the Diamondbacks, we're gonna outpace them all
with a bottom five offense, an average defense, and a
pitching staff that just nuts up, just over and over
and over again. Every once in a while blows up,
but otherwise just converts every tiny little lead, and you know,

(13:20):
everyone small will not up a win. But most of
the time we're just gonna, hey, we got we got
two runs. You need to win to one or two
nothing today. Anything else won't do. And that's what the Padres. Honestly,
Chris had been doing for so long now that it's
starting to feel like the identity of the twenty twenty
five team, and I pray that it's not. I perpetually

(13:41):
will be reminding myself, you and everyone else that in
twenty twenty four the team was fifty and fifty, you know,
fifty and fifty, And that's further along. That's a few
weeks further along the road. The Padres are still in
a better position. They still are, but dog Gonnet, Chris,
it feels like they're just hanging on on right now,
like they're pulling lucky wins and then getting deserved losses.

(14:06):
And if they continue along that route, it's not going
to finish well.

Speaker 2 (14:12):
I don't want to say lucky wins, but I would
say that they have had games given to them and
they happily accept them. You know, they're not they're not
quite giving them away. And that's how they you know, honestly,
that's how they won. It wound up with series wins
against the Nationals and Royals. Like they never outplayed those teams, No,
they literally the Nationals threw away again, yeah in the

(14:35):
and the and the Padres managed to not. Uh, my
sample size is a little bit smaller than forty games, Craig,
but I did my stat head search around thirty games
just to pull up what Padre's regulars have been doing,
and it's it's awful, it's it's it makes me stunned

(14:56):
that they've won the games they have in this timeframe
because the team has five regulars ish if you include
I guess he can't really include them regulars. But Tyler
Wade has gotten seventy played appearances, Brandon Lockridge has gotten
seventy four played appearances, Martin Maldonado seventy eight plate appearances,

(15:20):
Elias Dias eighty and Jose Iglesias eighty six. None of
those guys have an OPS above five point fifty. Brandon Lockridge,
who is not even on the team anymore, is the
only one who had a batting average over two hundred.
Martin Maldonado has a one five to nine batting average.
Tyler Wade craig our guy who we've embraced and said

(15:44):
is you know he's got to be on the team.
He fills too many holes. He's too he's too valuable,
and you know that's not a roster spot you want
to go away with. He's got a one forty eight
batting average, has looked really bad at the plate, a
four to sixteen. Now that's the That's the guys that
aren't I misspoked. Not necessarily regulars, but semi regulars. Like

(16:07):
they're in the lineup three to five games a week.
With the excession of Lockridge and Bryce Johnson, it's kind
of taken his spot in. Gavin Sheets is playing left field.
Who is there? Do you think we have a hitter
the past thirty games over an eight hundred OPS.

Speaker 1 (16:23):
Hit her in the last thirty games with an OPS
over eight hundred, boy, I think Sheets would be the
only guy that would have a shot.

Speaker 2 (16:33):
Sheets and Machado are the only two guys with shots,
and neither of them are doing it. Machado's got a
seven to seventy OPS two sixty two batting average, but
he has hit seven home runs. Gavin Sheets seven fifty
one OPS with a two fifty batting average with three
home runs, Like that's decent production, but that has been

(16:55):
the Padres highest production. Those are the guys that are
absolutely going. Jackson Old doesn't have a seven hundred OPS.
Tatist doesn't have a seven hundred OPS.

Speaker 3 (17:05):
Xander Bogarts has never had a seven I mean except
maybe like two or three weeks.

Speaker 2 (17:12):
He's out hitting Nando over that time. No, they're tied.
Excuse me, both six six' nine ops him And nando are.
Tied so Like, xander you don't want him to be that,
production but that's kind of who he's shown who he's gonna.
Be tatist. Man, like just that four hundred point drop

(17:32):
really explains everything with The, padres doesn't. It like the really, Pump,
yeah there they are twelve games over and now back
down to what are we six games? Over M, like
it's the four hundred point drop From Fernando Tatist.

Speaker 1 (17:49):
Junior that's one of. Them and don't. Worry the concernometer
is warming up in the. Closet it's about to get
wheeled out and we're gonna wrap up talking about our
concern about those. Too you have those. NUMBERS i just
wanted to make SURE i had mine. Right this is
in the last forty games again Major league ranks To

(18:09):
padres rank twenty sixth and runs per game twenty, eighth
in homers per game twenty sixth in average at twenty
Seven before, that in the first forty two games that
were second in the league in. Average, Wow, okay second
to twenty sixth on base has gone from seventh three
point thirty three to twenty ninth to ninety, four slugging

(18:34):
from eleventh four hundred to dead last three forty, nine
and as a result ops has gone from eleventh seven
to thirty three to twenty ninth six forty. Three and
the thing that seemed like it was The padres. Identity
earlier in the year two out hits driving in guys
with runners in scoring, position keeping the line. Moving first

(18:56):
forty two games of the, year team was twelve games
over five, hundred and they had a two to eighty
two average.

Speaker 2 (19:02):
With runners in scoring.

Speaker 1 (19:02):
Position since then six games under five hundred to, twelve
and that actually went way down today because The padres
went oh for thirteen On sunday with runners in scoring
position in a three to two loss to The Cincinnati.
Reds that will be blamed On Robert stuarez's third blown,
save and it will be blamed partially On Xander bogart's

(19:25):
leg cramp forcing him out of the, game Forcing wade
into the game at third, base where he failed to
catch a cork screw off of the end Of ellie
de La cruz's bat THAT i am telling, you, man
that was a ten pitch at bat against a, monster
and about around pitch, EIGHT i knew the result of
this at bat is going to resolve the inna like

(19:48):
If ellie gets on its. Problem he needed the out
and for the tenth pitch to squirt out Of tyler's.
Glove you, KNOW i read the postgames store ory For
macy disconsolate in the locker room, afterwards last guy to,
leave you, know sitting, there you, know doing the classic
thousand yard, Stare, LIKE i get, it. Man you, Know

(20:10):
tyler cares about the, team but he didn't make the.
Play BUT i don't care about any of. That The
padres had thirteen cracks with runners in scoring position to
bring in runs against a Okay Cincinnati red's pitching, staff
and they did not do it one. TIME i, mean
the run that get in is when Of glaciers hits
A baltimore chopper that was just too slow to be

(20:32):
a double. Play otherwise that's a double. Play so you,
know it's really this pathetic offense that's dragging down a
great pitching, staff putting way too much stress on the,
relievers way too much stress on young, starters and that
will lead to a twenty twenty. ONE i don't know complete,
collapse but it will lead to a pitching staff falling

(20:54):
apart down the stretch if The padres can't get this offense.

Speaker 2 (20:58):
RIGHT i completely. Agree and where are the systemic? Answers you,
know we we've heard About Vick rodriguez's you, know line,
drive hit the ball where it is approach and last
year that led to them leading the league in batting.

(21:19):
Average you're, great all, right your approach is working right this,
year as you just pointed, out did you say they
were twenty fourth in batting average the Last like that's.
Awful and if you're if that's what you're if you're
trying to get that batting average high at the expense

(21:40):
of excer base sits at the expense of home, runs
and you're having this, result it sounds like your personnel
don't match the approach and it's time for something new
or some new people which aren't coming by and, large you,
know the, tops other guys in the. Lineup really that's

(22:03):
probably not. Changing so something's got to. GIVE i don't
have the, answers not a swing. Doctor WHEN i see
these guys up at the, PLATE i don't see guys
you know, LOST i don't see guys not in the.
Game you know they're they're working a fair amount of
walks And jacob krona war is always good for good at,

(22:25):
bat but at the same, time, uh the results have
been so lackluster and painful and tough to watch that
something has to. Give AND i do feel like it
will just naturally within the ebb and flows of the,
game but it would BE i would love to ask
the the the scouting department and the coaching department what's

(22:52):
working right, Now like of your, messaging what do you
see that you, go, hey that's turning out all? Right
and and what's being done about the stuff that isn't
because that seems to be outweighing the stuff that.

Speaker 1 (23:04):
Is saturday's win needs to be generally credited To Gavin,
sheets who had three, hits got two doubles off Of Andrew,
abbott got a three run homer off of a Reliever
richardson to give the team the. Lead and On saturday
night's postgame show that you AND i did With rafie

(23:26):
checking in toward the very end of, it we were
kind of talking about lineup improvements AND i mentioned how you,
know for a playoff, lineup you generally wouldn't Want Gavin
sheets to be playing every day all the time against left.
HANDERS a couple people brought to my, attention AND i
do just want to note for the record that for
like two Weeks Gavin sheet's been hitting lefties pretty. Well

(23:49):
and you could make a narrative argument that all this
work he's getting playing all the time is raising his,
level and that today he did it. Again he got
a couple of hits Off. Lodolo you, know these are
pretty tough lefties that he's been staying square too and
getting hits off. Of and this could just wind up

(24:10):
Being gavin sheets breakout season where he breaks out to
being an everyday player in the major. Leagues you, know
A J peler had to fish in the bargain bin
basically for every catcher on the, team for A dh
on this, team for every player in the left field
position on this, team and he mostly, missed you, know

(24:31):
some giant. Misses So Gavin sheets, man he might have
a three year every day starter in this.

Speaker 2 (24:38):
Player happy to Celebrate, gavin you, Know i'm happy for.
IT i saw that his road lefty splits are even,
better and you, know maybe there's something to be said for.
THAT i still think, optimally you, know there's a better
right handed bat in this, lineup And Jose iglesias for

(25:02):
seventy eight ops last thirty, games so that's in ninety played.
Appearances he ain't getting it. Done Like I'M i don't
want to be the negative, Thing So i'm glad you
brought Up Gavin sheets and we got to yell at
him a little bit in a fun way at The
Sweet life. Game so, Like i'm definitely in The Dairy

(25:25):
bonds fan, Glove and it's worth pointing out he's been
the club's second best hitter again over that. Time you,
know he's carrying a lot of offensive weight and all
the while kind of in one of his downturns of the,
season like he's been hotter at other. Times SO i
still think that you want him in a like an

(25:47):
eighty twenty, platoon giving him days off because his body
also has never done. This he's never played left field
nearly as much as he is right, Now so god
forbid he puts his face into the wall again and
you Lose Gavin. Sheets SO i feel like some rest
for him would be, appreciated and that would that would

(26:08):
require a better personnel behind.

Speaker 1 (26:10):
Him it's the same thing. Again we're not trying to
keep balanced on, this but there's unsustainability to what The
padres are doing right. Now you can't have to tease
And arise And merrill And bowguards all be dragging on
the anchor and Expect Gavin sheets to be the wind

(26:30):
that fills the sail to allow the ship to continue to.
Move it's not going to sustain long. Term you need
your guys to stop dragging down the offense and start
lifting up the, offense and when they, Do sheets can
be carried along with. Them and then if he did
have A september where he wore, down you could survive

(26:54):
it because you could have the rest of the guys
to be thriving and. Clicking if you don't get those
guys production, back you're just not going to make the.
Playoffs so The padres have to get those other guys, going.

Speaker 2 (27:09):
And they definitely needed, it especially after the prior game
WHERE i was very close to doing a post game
show regardless of who else was, available Because Nick, Martinez
Bulldog nick of our you, know former friend of the,
show went into the ninthe ending pitching a no, hitter

(27:29):
AND i was fully prepared to go on air and
celebrate him and mock The padres for getting no hit
by him in the event that had. Happened but thankfully
elisd has graced us with hitting the ball with the,
bat which is a, rarity but you know he did.

(27:49):
It but they weren't in that game at, all like
one single, Bit like it felt Like Tyler wade should
have been pitching in that.

Speaker 1 (27:58):
Game he actually should have been pitching in that. Game
and that might have given The padres some optionality today
that they didn't feel like they. Had but in, reality
they didn't want to do that against no hitter because
The padres aren't The. Dodgers The padres aren't The. Dodgers
AND i don't mean that from just like haughty looking.

(28:22):
Down you, Know i'm ripping The. Dodgers The dodgers are,
Ruthless they're the Borg They're they're relentless and ruthless assimilating
the league to their, needs and they are perfectly happy
to mock their, team their fans and everybody who paid
a ticket and have Key Key hernandez pitch two and
a third and The padres are too. Proud they're gonna

(28:45):
Throw David morgan out, there and they're gonna Leave tyler
b Because Nick martinez is throwing a no hitter and
they don't want to turn it into a mockery because
they've got their friend out there throwing a no hitter
and they want to beat him fair and. Square even
though they took out To, machado they still want to
beat him far and, square and you, know put the
players up there to beat. Him and whether you'd like

(29:08):
to say that that makes them a slightly less efficient
organization or, not that's up to. You but that's just
the way that The padres do. Business but the thing
THAT i would take away From friday's game is yet
another clunker From Dylan, cees who stunk and could only
finish four innings and is not clicking into second half

(29:30):
form and has not backed up his couple really good
outings by turning it into a. Streak and, honestly you,
KNOW i already said in the last show With rafie
THAT i Think dylan's going to get signed by The
dodgers because it just makes. Sense who do you think
it's going to Sign? DYLAN i know it won't be The,
padres And i'm, HONESTLY i hate to say. It i'm

(29:52):
not going to miss him when he's, Gone like he's
been a real disappointment to me this, Year.

Speaker 2 (29:59):
I'm not going to miss at. All he's The While
Blake snell was A, padre especially his first, year he
developed a thing Amongst padres fans in our discord who You,
Know the saying, WAS i hate Watching Blake snell. Pitch
AND i never. AGREED i always thought he was entertaining
even when he wasn't. Good BUT i understand what they

(30:22):
mean now BECAUSE i can't stand washing don't. Pitch it's
so frustrating to me to watch a guy with the
ball that moves as much as his, does with the
velocity he had he, has with the tools he, has
just you, know walk guys, needlessly you, know just kind
of give off these non competitive at. Bats it's very,

(30:44):
frustrating and it's just kind of amazing that on a
team that has had such great performance from its pitching.
STAFF i, mean the numbers wind up being kind of
mid for the, starters but you'd expect that when you're
the majority of your rotation Is Colick berger And Randy.
Vasquez But Dylan ceas needed to be a lot more

(31:09):
than he's been this. Year and you, KNOW i don't
know who's gonna sign. Him it's gonna be somebody who
can afford a fairly HIGH. AAV i Think dylan might
have cost himself nine figures this season because he leads
Major League baseball in innings pitch since two thousand And,
really all he had to do was be, good like

(31:33):
if he would have put up a one and a
half two war pitching war this, year which he still
could be on pace to, him not four is going
to bail.

Speaker 1 (31:41):
Him i'm telling, You, chris that's that's it. Is he's
still going to two. Four he's gonna get the highest
contract of the. Winter he's going to be the highest
paid pitcher of the. Winter and it's just whether The
mets or The, dodgers or The cubs or The braves
or out of nowhere The giants want to sign.

Speaker 2 (32:03):
HIM i don't know him.

Speaker 1 (32:07):
Here he's not staying.

Speaker 2 (32:09):
Here gallen's a free, agent AND, i LIKE i, WOULD
i would Prefer gallon over, him even With gallen having
the rough, Year and, no The padres aren't going to sign.
HIM i Think Loewyan gilbert is going to be a free.
AGENT i think he's cost himself a lot of money because,
yeah sure he can be on the, mound but with

(32:32):
how he's performed this, SEASON i DON'T i don't see
anybody going dedicating the sheer amount the volume of money
that a multi year deal would get. HIM i think
he'll still get he'll get a GOOD aav but.

Speaker 1 (32:49):
The, durability the durability is going to get him. Paid
and here's the. Thing not everyone else is watching him
pitch every. Day it's the same thing. Again we Watched
blake AND i just want to, say It's june twenty
ninth as we record. This what Has Blake snell done
for THE La dodgers in twenty twenty.

Speaker 2 (33:09):
Five he's a wonderful ambassador to the digital. Community he's
done jack.

Speaker 1 (33:19):
Shit he's done jack. Shit and you know what last
year around this time for The, giants you know what
he had done for, Them just about jack shit J.

Speaker 2 (33:30):
Js, yeah when we're talking About Juliet, sierra.

Speaker 1 (33:33):
You, know And dylan And Blake snell still got the.
Money dylan shows up every day in his way that he.
Does he shows up for every start until that arm
injury happens that hasn't happened in his. Career he's gonna get,
paid But i'm going to look forward to watching him

(33:54):
pitch for someone else BECAUSE i don't think he's got
more than a twenty dollar. Head he's got a million dollar,
arm AND i think he's a really cool cat Who
i'd probably really enjoy talking. To but his he's never
developed a third. Pitch he's trying to be a reliever

(34:14):
as a starter years and years into, it and that
means his slider has to be perfect and his fastball
has to be, perfect and if either one is not,
perfect then it's going to be four or five innings
and it's going to be three or four, runs and
it's going to be eight, strikeouts but it's gonna be three,
walks and it's going to be walking the nine batter
on four pitches to get to the leadoff it or

(34:35):
it's going to be just the crap That dylan sees.
Does and the ONLY i mean only solace THAT i
would take if the wheels fell off For San diego
in the next four weeks would be the opportunity to
move him and get something for. Him because you just
cannot move him from a team that's contending at. All you,

(34:58):
can't but you, could BUT i don't want, it So
i'm not expecting. It i'm expecting to live with him
for the rest of the year until we offer, him
offer him that that end of the year deal that
he turns, down uh and then signs elsewhere and we
get a draft.

Speaker 2 (35:15):
Pick while we're on. It, like since we're talking, deadline
it's that time of the year where the algorithm starts
to dictate. That Baseball chattarati shows bring up the trade
deadline and you start seeing THE ai driven pieces about
the blockbuster deal your team is going to. Do And

(35:36):
Jim bowden like goes into his opium den and locked
the door behind, him and he And.

Speaker 1 (35:44):
Aaron rodgers are in there just trading. Recipes. Bro they
just fucking trading recipes for. Chicken it's it's. Wild and then.

Speaker 2 (35:55):
They come out with SOMETHING I i just want to
put out my, opinion and it's that the, Padres, like,
sure if they lose twenty of the next thirty something
games before the, deadline maybe they're not gonna do. That
they're not in that team all, Year they're not gonna

(36:16):
like they're they're gonna play the ball they've been, playing
which is mediocre around five, hundred and they're not gonna be.
Sellers and anybody trying to like edge you on, that
trying to try to give you that little bit of
a ride like they're doing it because it feeds the
algorithm and it feeds. Engagement The, padres their business model

(36:38):
dictates they fill their. Stadium that doesn't mean selling off their,
pieces and, frankly they don't have the. Pieces Dylan cees
like his performance this year matches a lot To Jack
flaherty's performance last year for The, tigers and they put
him up for trade for about a, month even though
The tigers had this amazing comeback in the second half

(36:58):
after they Traded flarity and all they got in exchange
was The. DODGERS i want to, say their number eight
prospect and their number. Fifteen that's what you're getting for
one of the best starting pitchers on the market last,
Year Dylan ceze is pitching worse Than jack flaherty pitch last. Year,
like even if you get that, return that's like the

(37:21):
ceiling of, It, Folks like the scenario of The padres
selling if that's what you're rooting. For you're rooting for
two nineteen year olds who aren't going to play in
the major leagues at best case in three. Years and
that's what you're getting For. Cease the only other PIECE
i can think of that they have that a traditional

(37:42):
seller would unload would Be Robert, suarez and it's the
same exact. Thing you're not getting a lot back for.
Him this isn't twenty twenty, three when The padres had
a whole litany of valuable pieces on expiring contracts to.
Unload they don't have that this, year and so they
can't be traditional sellers from that. Standpoint everybody else is

(38:06):
underwater from a value. Standpoint you think they're gonna get
anything For Wandy, peralta For Yuki, Matsue, no, no it
ain't gonna. Happen so like this dream of restocking the
farm system by pulling the plug on a year like
that was two years, ago, guys that ain't this. Year
the conditions aren't. Right the current isn't going down and

(38:28):
in where the fish are sitting there waiting for your
sardines to come floating by the current's going out to. Sea,
man there's nothing out, there.

Speaker 1 (38:39):
Hy, Area AND i think the biggest one was the
one you made it this Stard, LIKE i think if
The padres lost twenty to, thirty they would still not.
SELL i. AGREE i think they'd probably have to lose
like seventeen of twenty something like. That they'd have to
go on A sacramento as kind of. Run, yeah where
they just went. Tank oh my, god you look back

(39:01):
from two. Weeks, yeah you're, like we're so far. Underwater
it's just been two. Weeks you, know all of a,
sudden we're six games under five.

Speaker 2 (39:08):
Hundred what's going? On you?

Speaker 1 (39:10):
KNOW i don't see that happening, either ALTHOUGH, i Like
i've said from the, Beginning i'm not gonna. Waiver The
potters are just hanging on right. Now so if their
pitching staff went, south they would lose a whole bunch
of games in a. Row they, would because they'd need
their offense to carry. Them and that's the twenty ninth

(39:32):
ranked offense in the league for half a. Season, Now,
okay with, That Mike schiltz made multiple lineup changes over
the course of the last two programs that we've.

Speaker 2 (39:45):
Done boy has he and.

Speaker 1 (39:47):
The one that he's settled on right now is A rise,
One machado Two merrill three to tease. Four we talked
about this on the last postgame, show which went only
to our, patron so on the main, FEED i just
wanted to reiterate the one key ARGUMENT i have against,
this which is THAT i think you're taking two very
important players in your lineup and you're marginalizing both of.

(40:10):
Them Luisa rise is just not a leadoff. Hitter, now
today he drew a four. Pitchwalk, Congrats really the pitcher
gives you a four, pitchwalk but he gets base. Hits
Luisa rise has a low on base. Percentage his on
base percentage for the season is three to. Eleven that's

(40:33):
not a leadoff. Hitter that's a guy that you want
lower in the. Lineup but it gets much. Worse his
on base percentage In may was three h four and
In june it's been two ninety. Eight so now we're
getting To Kansas City Royals Alcidas, escobar you, know two

(40:54):
point eighty with a two ninety eight on base needlessly
leading off for a bad, offense you, Know and if
you want to counter and go That royals team won
The World, Series i'm like. Cool maybe we will too
on some stupid ass, rally but it's not what you.
Want but more, importantly how can you put a singles?

(41:17):
Hitter the only thing he gives you is, singles and
the guys he's supposed to drive in Are Tyler wade
Or Jose, Iglacias Jake cronenworth And Elias diaz Or Martin.
Maltonado like those guys are never on. Base so when

(41:37):
you put A rise, one you're almost, guaranteed guaranteeing that
he'll never drive in a run unless he did what
he did On saturday and hit a solo.

Speaker 2 (41:45):
Homer and when even if they, do it'll be like
today where they're on their second and third two and
he doesn't get the job. Done, Like i'm, Sorry Luis
aarrise this year has not Been louise A rise of years,

(42:08):
Past LIKE i don't Think i'm being unfair saying, that,
uh and like that even has to go with his clutch.
STACKS i, mean he just hasn't been the guy who
you know makes you hurt for giving him a fat
pitch at. All he, like he hasn't been the. Guy

(42:31):
and they did the lineup like it was almost like
The mike shit was so close to doing EVERYTHING i
wanted when he had a hit batting. Cleanup and he
may not be the prototypical cleanup, hitter but him at
his best hitting fourth is just as valuable as him

(42:52):
at his best hitting leadoff for all the reasons you just,
said because you don't get the on base percentage bump
from a more selective. Hitter you Advocated Jake croninberth and
like his on base percentage has to be sixty seventy
points higher than his batting average because he's more of
a selective hitter And arise. Isn't so it was very

(43:14):
frustrating to see them do the perfect order Of, Tatiste, Merril, Machado,
arise give that two? Games do they average five runs a?
Game and then just take that baby in the tub
and just huck it out the window with the bath
water like seemingly again on no sample size whatsoever.

Speaker 1 (43:33):
Now AND i want to make a deeper point about A,
rise BUT i got to finish the point about the.
Lineup So, okay As chris just, said If arise is
hitting fourth or, fifth his singles almost by definition are
driving in runs unless all the guys in front of,
him which are your best hitters in the lineup aren't.

(43:54):
Succeeding his hits are gonna have an opportunity to drive
in runs And luisa Rise is his story been tremendous
with runners in scoring, position where he focuses on getting line.
Drives we'll get back To lebron's in a. Second let
me talk About. Fernando at the beginning of the, year
When Mike chill Put Fernando Tattist junior in the leadoff,

(44:15):
spot everyone screamed hallelujah and why he was clear That
fernando was the ideal leadoff hitter for the team because
you're giving one of your best players the most at.
Bats you're giving your most dynamic player the most at.
Bats you're giving him an opportunity to both lead off
a game with a home run or drive in players
at the bottom of the lineup with a home, run
but also to get on base and steel bases where

(44:38):
he's the fastest player and the most possible bass stealer
on The San Diego. Padres when you put to tease,
fourth now keep in mind to tease for five weeks
played like AN, mvp and then since then he's played
like a battle replacement level player minus the great defense
as an offensive, hitter and only recently did he hit

(44:59):
a couple of home. Runs so he's his timing's been,
off his hitting's been off for a while since Basically may,
second his hitting's been, off and It's june twenty. Nine
but when you put him forth, now think about it,
again by, definition when he's coming, up if the guys

(45:21):
in front of him are doing, anything, okay there's runners on,
base he might be able to drive him. In but
he's not hitting for power right, now he hasn't for.
Months but when he gets, on when's he going to
be able to? Steal at the very, best he has
to get on with nobody on in front of him

(45:41):
to have a base. Open but Then Gavin sheets is.
Up do you want to take the bat out Of
gavin sheets hands by?

Speaker 2 (45:47):
Running we saw it today Where bogart's had. Left we
saw the one scenario Where tatis will have the green,
light and that's When Tyler wade is in the game
with his four fortys the past forty games like that's
the one time you get to see it.

Speaker 1 (46:04):
Exactly SO i really dislike the idea of putting a rise,
one and then you've got and A rise has not
been good for a. While he had like a five
game decent, streak maybe it was eight or nine games
where he got a few, hits but, still all of a,

(46:25):
sudden now you're putting him in a spot where his
hits count the exact same as a hit by, pitch a,
walk or an. Error they're essentially. Meaningless they're just an
on base. Point so now if he does get, on
Now manny's, up the double plays in, order right because
The rise is always on. First, Yep louise can't. Steal

(46:48):
and now we Got manny up at the. Plate, Now
manny's been ice cold since the configuration. Changed it doesn't mean,
anything but he has. Been he's like two for twenty
six or. Something, NOW i don't know if it means.
Something it could very well probably is, meaningless but point
is STILL i don't feel like he's optimized there because
there's no more than one player on, base and the

(47:11):
double plays in. Order now you Got meryl. Third and
Is jackson hitting like a three hitter right? NOW i
mean he's he's bringing no power to the, Game and
now you got to tease. FOURTH i much preferred to tease,
One merrill two where he can get a fastball with
to tease on first base trying to Steal manny three

(47:34):
where he's got a chance to hit a three run.
Homer and, then, HONESTLY i think we both agree with
Like sheets fourth Or rise, fifth you, know but the point,
is let a rise hits do something down in the.
Order so if you're gonna make it, four make it.
Four but this configuration has been a, dud was a
dud again. Today AND i think when you put left

(47:57):
handed batters one three, five, Right, Arise, Merrill, Sheets.

Speaker 2 (48:07):
Sheets Rightn, yeah it was one three five the other, game.

Speaker 1 (48:13):
And then you Got maldonado or Or diaz kind of
the auto out at the bottom of the. ORDER i
just feel like other managers are given super easy lanes
if they have a good left handed reliever on their,
team or if they have multiple left handed starters and
relievers on their, team that they give this team easy
lanes to, say don't pitch to this, guy throw to this,

(48:35):
guy don't pitch to that, guy throw to this. Guy
take care of business and and you'll move the padres merrily.

Speaker 2 (48:41):
Along it also goes to the bench man the bench
is so. Barren there's just nobody. There, yeah you know
where that you can take advantage of them switching. Out you,
know The padres don't have a bench player with as
over five point fifty like in the past month and a.

(49:04):
Half that's. Insane that's insane that it's gone on as
long as it.

Speaker 1 (49:10):
Has Is David peralta On Brandon belt's.

Speaker 2 (49:12):
BOAT i think he is two of them just.

Speaker 1 (49:16):
Hanging out going, like, hey we're league better than average.

Speaker 2 (49:18):
Backs just she started a phishing show and it's On
TikTok And peralta handles one side of the he handles
the left handed, Turns Brandon belt handles the other, ones
LIKE i don't have the answers man And AJ's solutions

(49:40):
haven't haven't hit this. Year we talked about it going
into the. Year you, know all The dice came up
in twenty twenty four and it didn't seem likely that
they were going to this. Year and it's been the exact.
Opposite you have one, dice one golden weighted beautiful milk
Like dice And gavin she and then everybody Else Tyler,

(50:02):
Wade Brandon, Lockridge Connor joe like they've all been just, brutal,
Dude and LIKE i, know the trope with the team
is that you need the stars to play like stars
for them to win at. All that isn't. Happening it
would sure be nice to have the backup of having
a few solid depth, pieces and you, know whether those

(50:24):
are gone because of trades and you don't get them
because of mistakes in the, past or whether it's just
allocating resources in a really weird way coming into the off.
SEASON i don't. Know here's a.

Speaker 1 (50:37):
Brief interlude from all of our, bloominess because my personal
algorithm just notified me that we've talked a little bit
too ill about a team that's been hanging. On SO
i do want to note one positive that we kind
of skimmed right, past which is That Stephen kullak was
dynamite today through into the sixth.

Speaker 2 (50:56):
Inning almost didn't want to see him get taken out.
CRAG i was a little, Like.

Speaker 1 (51:03):
But WHAT i wanted to bring, up and, HONESTLY i
want to Give Bob scanlon a ton of credit by
being the guy who got THE tv truck to point
it out and then alerted it to THE tv, crew
was That Stephen kullak Slash Ruben niebla made a, huge
huge tactical change going into today's. Game they decided to

(51:24):
pinball him from the right side to the left side
of the, rubber dependent on the hitting side of the.
Batter So kolak is now throwing from the third base
side or the right side looking in from the center
field camera of the, rubber left field side or left
side if you're looking for the batter's, box but the
third base side of the rubber against right East and

(51:44):
now he's moved and he's putting his heel on the
first base side of the rubber against, lefties and lefties
went over nine against him, today had awkward. Swings his
two seamer was really. Effective, again it stays in this
so much. Longer, Yes so that change is a huge

(52:06):
unlock potentially For Steven kolk and this kid who was
A rule five pickup last year that hung on as
the thirteenth pitcher for most of the season before he
phantom i held his way across the finish, line has
turned into a potential five year starter for The San Diego.

(52:27):
Padres he could be a thousand inning pitcher for he
could be an eight hundred inning pitcher for The San
Diego he could be a seven hundred inning pitcher for
The San. Diego british ton it down a, bit, yeah
and it's still really. Good like we could get that
many innings from a guy for A rule five pickup

(52:48):
and actually have him be a viable mid rotation. Starter
he kept The padres In sunday's, games SO i mean
they get their ass kicked if he has another one
of those blow up innings that he's fallen victim. To
but young pitchers that show great stuff and have blow up.
Innings that's like watching somebody who's like really coming into
it as a golfer but has that one hole where

(53:10):
it all falls, apart and you're, like well just give
into that, hole you, know and like you're gonna be
playing scratch. Golf that's Where colic. Is he's a couple
adjustments away from being near, elite and today might have
been one of those. Adjustments if The padres make the,
playoffs they are making the playoffs on the back Of Steven,

(53:30):
Coolik Randy, Vasquez Ryan, bergert hopefully Tomorrow Matt. Waldron these
guys who aren't expected to be good starters that have
developed you, know delivered the b war for this. Team
they've delivered the goods over the course of this season so.
FAR i don't know if they can finish, it but
they've done it so.

Speaker 2 (53:51):
Far padres needs to show up For Stephen, kolic like
his offense has not been there at. All he's lost
a couple of games where he didn't give up an earned,
run and he's had two quality, starts but that he
lost because the team just didn't give him any. OFFENSE

(54:11):
i hope that they're looking to this young dude and
feeling like they need to do a little bit better for,
him because they're four and seven in his starts and
he hasn't pitched like. That he hasn't pitched deserving. THAT i,
mean he's had two outings that were real blow, ups
giving up five and six runs to The mariners and
to The. Marlins they won The marlins game because that

(54:33):
was Against Ryan. Weathers but, yeah you're absolutely, Right and
this is WHY i don't really worry too much about
that twenty twenty one scenario completely because that was the
year that we got into The Jake arietas and. WHATNOT
i don't feel like we're gonna be at risk for
that as long as these young dudes stay, healthy which

(54:54):
they almost definitely, Will so keep that sinker ball sinking
and like in that slider ball. Slide because both of those,
pitches with those, adjustments they stay in the zone a
little bit. Longer it makes them a little bit more
competitive and guys don't seem to hit it that.

Speaker 1 (55:09):
Hard and he's already got the sweeper against, righty's so
it's always been about what could he do against, lefties
and making this adjustment maybe allows him to be a
two way pitcher effective against both. Sides and if he,
is then you're you're Approaching all star status and one
hundred million dollar contracts and all the other things that
you get for being a great starter in the big.
Leagues so if The padres Turned Stephen kollak into a

(55:30):
great starter in the big, leagues or even a good
starter in the big.

Speaker 2 (55:33):
Leagues, yeah it just seems to be a three Man.

Speaker 1 (55:35):
Yeah that's such a, gigantic gigantic organizational. Win keep in,
mind we said in the, winter we thought the whole
season depended on Getting Roki sasaki as that affordable rotation
replies on, it, Right like everything depends on getting this
affordable guy for the next five. Years that can be

(55:58):
right in the middle of our. Rotation what if it's
Actually Stephen colic. Instead you, know Baseball god works in funny.
Ways so let's let's see what. Happens but Its. Colic good.
News padre's wrap up this road trip In. Philadelphia they're
gonna Face Christopher, sanchez who matches up well against, Them Zach,

(56:18):
wheeler who matches up well against, everybody And Nick abel
who's one of their top. Prospects we'll see how that.
Plays but that'll be the last game of the road.
Trip that'll be a day game after a night. Game
that'll be who, KNOWS i was not bullish on this road.
Trip and and they're one and two right, Now padrey's
got to find a way to get a, win if

(56:40):
not two wins out Of. Philadelphia they're going to give
the ball To. Waldron then it's going to Be Nick.
Pivetta bad bad ballpark For Nick. Povetta he can tell
you pitched there for. Years, yes, yes but at least
It's paveta revenge, tour magic. Potential and then you Got

(57:00):
Dileton dylan On, wednesdays so you, know just throw the
six sided die and see what happens With Dylanton.

Speaker 2 (57:07):
Dylan you, know but with The phillies, Lineup dylan could
strike out, twelve like he could give up, four but
he could strike out twelve. Along Bryce harper ain't. Playing
we take that every single. Time But Kyle schwarber, is
which is not great for us because we've seen what

(57:28):
that dude. Does they're talking about extension talks with, him
which is a. SHAME i would love to not see
him play baseball. Anymore LIKE i was kind of hoping
he might just, retire you, know be like there's been
a good run. Everybody Kyle schwarber.

Speaker 1 (57:42):
OUT i decided to stick Around. Jack, Okay so that's
what's coming. Up we'll have postgame shows if we, win
we'll have group therapy along the. Way, hopefully you, know
hopefully we'll make. It rafe'll be back By. Thursday we're
gonna wrap up though with a concernometer.

Speaker 2 (57:59):
And.

Speaker 1 (57:59):
Rape if he has submitted his numbers From chicago and
this is today's concernometer, Topic we've plugged it in to
The concerno. Meter the prompt goes.

Speaker 2 (58:11):
Like, this.

Speaker 1 (58:13):
Will PLAYER x get back to their norms before season's
end or will they fall. SHORT a one on The
concerno meaner means you believe they're definitely going to, make
maybe even surpass their career. NORMS a ten means they're
one falling, short maybe way short of their career. Norms

(58:36):
do we understand how the calibration of the concernometer? Works?

Speaker 2 (58:41):
ISH i, want, like would career norms like kind of
What i'm using for that would be h zips predect?
Projections is that? Fair is that like a projection incorporates
all their career norms plus they're.

Speaker 1 (58:57):
Age the projection is is some fucking ai? Man, uh
this is What i'm talking, About, Okay because we're gonna
start with this. Guy So Luisa, rise his career batting
averages three. Nineteen he's hitting two eighty. Three his career
ops plus is one. Sixteen he's at ninety. Six his

(59:18):
career ops is seven eighty, two he's at seven. Ten
his career op EIGHT obp is three sixty, five he's
at three. Eleven he's down on every number in his
career right. Now is he gonna get back to? That
is he gonna be a three point fifteen hitter by
the end of the? Year or is he gonna be
way short of.

Speaker 2 (59:38):
That concernometer That Luisa rise is gonna be short of
three point fifteen solid, Six LIKE I i think he
could get back. There he's not gonna be three sixty,
though which is what they really wanted him to.

Speaker 1 (59:51):
Be, okay six from? You, Uh rayfie says. Nine he
has a. Nine he believes that he's almost positive that
this Is Luisa rise's worst season of his career and
that he is not going to reach those career. NORMS

(01:00:16):
i am going to put it at, seven so all
of us more think that it's not going to happen
than think that it's going to happen For Luisa. Rise
What i'm seeing is actually a two plus season pattern
of decline For. Louisa i'm going to say actually seven

(01:00:38):
and a. Half i'm gonna move it up right As i'm.
Talking i'm pretty Sure Luisa rise is going to put
up the worst season of his career and is going
to not be A padre next year as a. Result
and the reason for that is because he's swinging outside
the zone for over two seasons now more than he ever,
has but he's doing less damage inside the zone than
he ever, has And i've got this were you, Too

(01:01:00):
this is THE i told YOU i had a thing
queued up on on On louise and it ties into
what we were talking about, before because you Want LOUISE.
A rise to focus on what hitting line? Drives, Right,
yes hitting line drives And Louise arises career he uh

(01:01:27):
and hey, on let me get the uh total number as. Well,
SO i mean we're talking about thousands of at bats
now in his career twenty nine hundred and thirty five at. Best, okay,
so so almost three thousand at bats in his, career
eight hundred and twenty three times he's had a plate
appearance and in a line drive that's the second most

(01:01:49):
filled bucket of his. Career and of, course on those
line drives in his, career he's hitting six forty seven
with a fourteen thirty four on base percentage or. OPS i,
mean so When luise arrives hits line, drives he's an absolute. Monster,
now of, course what would be the thing that he

(01:02:11):
does the very?

Speaker 2 (01:02:12):
Most pops out to, shortstop slash left, field.

Speaker 1 (01:02:16):
No ground, ball, Right Luise rise gets more than, anything
he hits a ground, ball and that's the time this, Year,
yeah and that's been the most in his, career eleven
hundred and sixty six plate appearances have ended in a ground,
ball and he's hit two fifty in those plate. Appearances
but of, course the thing you don't Want LUISE. A

(01:02:37):
rise to do is hit a fly. Ball and in his,
career seven hundred and fifty eight appearances fewer than the line, drives,
right almost one hundred fewer than the line, drives seven
hundred and fifty eight appearances have ended in a fly,
ball and in those at bats in his career he's
hit one forty six with four eighty two. Ops Martine

(01:03:03):
maldonado right, now this, Year Louisa rise has more fly
balls than line. Drives this, Year Louisa rise has ninety
played appearances that ended in a fly ball and eighty

(01:03:26):
eight that ended in a line. Drive and in the
appearances where it ended in a fly, ball he's hitting
oh ninety, two not one forty, six oh ninety, two
and that includes all four of his. Homers, okay so
don't Think i'm leaving those out the line. Drives he's
actually hitting one hundred plus points lower than. Normally he's

(01:03:47):
hitting five forty five instead of six forty. Six but
he's only got eighty eight of those compared to ninety fly.
Balls and he's got one hundred and twenty six ground
balls with the two thirty eight, average which is right
around what it's been for his. Career but he's hit
more fly balls than ever this, season AND i DON'T

(01:04:10):
i don't know if he's going to fix. IT i
don't know if in the last sixty games he's going
to be a line drive. Wizard but what he's done
is he's turned Himself chris from a uniquely interesting and
sort of useful player in baseball to an almost completely
useless player that just looks like a good. Player he

(01:04:30):
masquerades as a good player because he does get some,
hits but in reality he's actively hurting your.

Speaker 2 (01:04:37):
Team this version Of Luisa, Rise, well it would have
been a lot easier with THE f four argument because
he's underwater from a value standpoint this, year actually a
negative value player when he was projected for two. Wins
i'm not going to change my. ANSWER i still think
the dude can go on a hot streak with fairly

(01:04:58):
minimal adjustments on his. Part we were looking at a
little bit different data because savant and the spot track
actually mean the savant and they have the game cast
data has him at at air at a flyball rate
of twenty four percent and his line drive a little

(01:05:22):
bit higher than. That but the thing THAT i like
when you answered my first impression was popping up to
shortstop and left. Field it turns out he is doing
that more than he ever. Has he's doing that almost
thirty percent of the. Time last year was twenty three.
Percent year before twenty two point six year before twenty four.
Percent so he's got about a twenty percent increase in

(01:05:44):
that opposite field in the air. Percentage AND i don't
see a. LOT i don't see him doing a lot
of gappers in between the left fielder and center. Fielder
that's not. Happening what's happening is there cans and corn
to the short's top and left. Fielder but the thing,
is the dude is such a savant not to use

(01:06:05):
that word again in a different, context but WHICH i
am about hitting THAT i feel like it just takes
him doing one thing to get around the ball a
little bit, more changing his swing play in her, adjustment
AND i feel like he can do It i'm. Not
i'm not giving up on a rise being a useful
guy somewhere in the. Lineup i've gave up long ago

(01:06:26):
of him being useful hitting, one two or.

Speaker 1 (01:06:29):
Three all, Right so again it was a, six a,
nine and a seven even and a half seven and a.
HALF i raised it. Up this one should be really
easy and. Quick Nanny machado is a career two eighty
hitter who's hitting two ninety. Seven he's got a career

(01:06:51):
on base percentage of three point thirty, nine which he's
over by almost twenty. Points he's a three fifty seven
and he's hitting it almost exactly his career slug it's
a forty six for the, season for eighty eight for his.
Career so your concernometer That manny will meet or surpass
his career norms when he's already surpassing them one And

(01:07:18):
rayfie checked in a, two And i'll go with a. One, yeah, yeah, easy.
Man he's not the problem. Now he might turn into
the problem a month from, now but he's not the,
problem and he probably won't be the problem a month
from now.

Speaker 2 (01:07:31):
Either so he's gonna have rough. Stretches but we're talking
about a guy with an expecting batting average of three
oh one right, now you, know right in line with
what he's done his entire. Career matter of, fact his
best year as A padre since HIS mvp three. Season
so not worried About manny at. All and, frankly we've
missed him at third base a couple of times in

(01:07:52):
the past few, games especially, today missed him at third.

Speaker 1 (01:07:55):
Base take, Time okay To Jackson, merrill who's got the
younger career of, all just seven hundred and forty seven
career at, bats and this is kind of a tricky.
One he's hitting three. Expectation, yeah he's hitting three zero
one for the season right. Now his career averages two ninety,
five is on base percentages three point fifty. Four right,

(01:08:17):
now his career is thirty thirty. Three his lugging is
down about thirty, points four sixty one to four. Ninety
because of, that his ops is down eight, points but
his ops plus is almost exactly the same as it
was for his, career which means last year one twenty
five to one twenty. Seven but undisputably the power is

(01:08:39):
down For Jackson. Merrill at this time last year he
had twelve homers and at this time this year he has.
Five so what's your concernometer that at the end of
the Year jackson's going to be able to meet his career, norms.

Speaker 2 (01:08:54):
And his career norm being twenty four home.

Speaker 1 (01:08:56):
RUNS i mean it is what he did last. YEAR
i mean that aspect that it's across the.

Speaker 2 (01:09:01):
Board see that's where it's. TOUGH i feel like he's
already shown an improvement in his, eye like taking the.
Walk he's already his walk rates way better this, year
and that's going to help him with the on base.
Percentage but IF i focus it and my number change
is big time if we're talking about slug or if
we're talking about, ops because the on base is going

(01:09:23):
to help. IT i, like right now he's slugging fifty
points lower than he did last. Year and if you're
talking about my concernometer about him slugging five hundred, again
it's out a nine BECAUSE i DON'T i don't think
he's going to do it with the injuries and not
being able to get into a rhythm this. Season and
that's not who we were told he, was you, know

(01:09:45):
when he was a, prospect when he was one of
the top prospects in. Baseball we were told his ceiling
for power was about ten to fifteen home, runs and
then he came out and had that Amazing ricky. Campaign
but The meryl, madness the, walkoffs and the clutch, moments
AND i don't expect that from him going forward in his.
Career so my concernometer for that slug meeting last year

(01:10:08):
would be really. High but, altogether the concernometer is supposed
to like measure our, anxiety and my anxiety Over jackson
being a productive player is very. Low so matching the
ops of eight twenty, Six i'll put it at a solid,
four just because he has a little bit of an

(01:10:28):
uphill road to, it and he keeps having bad slides
and he had the injury from earlier in the, year
and sometimes that's just how years go and you never
get into a, rhythm and maybe that could be. Him but,
four what about?

Speaker 1 (01:10:43):
YOU i think you've hit a good. NUMBER i was
going to say four and a, half, yeah like And
rave wrote in six and he pardon, me he wrote in,
six but he put next to it mainly for the.
SLOT i think That jackson may come up with fifty
percent of his home run total from last. Year this,

(01:11:03):
year he may finish with twelve. Homers now he might
go and get seven in a, week just like he
did Last. June you, know that shut all of us
up who were talking about what we thought he would
do or could. Do maybe he'll do, that but until
he does, it he hasn't done, it and for a
while he hasn't done. It so it's fair to. Ask

(01:11:27):
it's not. Unfair it's fair to. Ask So i'm gonna
put it just around where you, did like four and a.
HALF i think it's. Tough it's tough unless you're an absolute.
Superstar it's pretty tough to come in have a year
like you did in year one and then back it
up with a better year in year. Two like that's.

(01:11:48):
Amazing and the unbelievable.

Speaker 2 (01:11:52):
Thing that stuns me about. Unbelievable the thing that stuns
me About Jackson merrill's statline this year is the one stolen.
Base LIKE i thought that was going to be a
much bigger fascinat game than it's.

Speaker 1 (01:12:03):
Dead, well that's the whole. Thing So jackson's done a
lot of things, good but on the five tool, level
his power has declined and his speed is. Declined so
when you're still hitting for an average and getting on
some and playing good defense and being a great teammate
and doing all those, things being a player who hates to,

(01:12:23):
lose loves to, win hates to, lose those are all
the things we love About. Jackson if he's not contributing
the same power and speed as he used, to obviously
he's not at the exact same tier that he used to.
Be SO i think our numbers are. Fair they're very
middling For, jackson but they're. Fair, okay let's go to
the biggest enigma of them, All Fernando Tattis. Junior And

(01:12:47):
i'm gonna Put rafie's, first Because rafie put it. Two
So rafie is not concerned at all That Fernando Tattis
junior will get to his career norms by the end
of this, season what say?

Speaker 2 (01:12:59):
You and just to establish his career, norms that's about
twenty four home runs on the. Year it's hard with
the twenty twenty season because that's what it should have.
Been much more so like his is his career norm
twenty five with H i'm just hard to try to figure.

Speaker 1 (01:13:22):
Out let's look at the the instead OF i, mean
you got to look at it by rate because of
all the time he's. Missed he's a unique. Case right
how many full seasons Is fernando? Had but he's hitting
two fifty seven right. Now he's a career two to
seventy six. Hitter he's on basis almost equal three fifty
to three forty. Six his slugging is way. Down career

(01:13:43):
slugging is five twenty. Two used to be six, hundred
by the, way it's it's driven way down from twenty twenty.
One but five twenty two career, slugging he's at four forty.
Six he's you, know seventy ish seventy five ish points
underwater on, that which means HIS ops is around the same.
Thing it's it's about nineteen point a pardon, me almost

(01:14:05):
almost one hundred points, underwater seven ninety two to eight seventy,
one about seventy eight points, underwater so seventy nine points.
Underwater so is he gonna get ops plus one nineteen
to one thirty? Seven so instead of that like the raw,
stats although we did chat with that For jackson a little,
bit it's more like the rates for, me For, fernando
what's your.

Speaker 2 (01:14:24):
Concernometer it's, tough, man because you gotta go at like
pre risk, surgery post risk, Surgery, nando like there are
two different. Players like you pointed, out his slug was
consistently near six hundred back, then and it's been near five,
hundred but always to low it. Since but then again

(01:14:49):
the first month of the, season he was blowing all
of that out of. Water my concernometer is a four
Because fernando has proven throughout his career to be a.
Tinkerer he's been somebody who does not bring consistency into his,
approach you, know much at. All but his, athleticism his

(01:15:11):
his gifts that the game has given him allow him
to overcome. THAT i and he's played better. RECENTLY i
know it doesn't feel like. THAT i know the statistics
don't quite bear it, out but his rolling Ex whoba
last one hundred plate appearances is back to around four
hundred where it was at the beginning of the, season

(01:15:32):
and his sliders are are dark red, still you, know
three months into the. Year SO i Think fernando is
gonna still have an incredibly hot three to five week.
Stretch oh my, god there's so many spiders on my. Microphone,
sorry just just terrify. EVERYBODY i just found a web

(01:15:55):
with no shit seven spiders on, it And i'm gonna
mute myself for a. Moment concernometer about these fighters is
a fucking. Ten, yeah take those. Down will you give
us your? Reasons oh my, god the, Moment i'll be.

Speaker 1 (01:16:09):
Back, Okay okay, Again i'm kind of staying to some similar.
Things but one thing THAT i was looking forward to
was For fernanda to get this season turned around In,
june because Historically Fernando Tattists junior has been dynamite In,
june a career ops of nine ninety, three career average

(01:16:31):
of three sixteen in one hundred and eighteen games In.
June this, year In june he hit two thirty one
with two homers and a seven oh FOUR. OPS i
was willing to give Him may for the hit by,
pitch for you, know playing through, injury developing bad. Habits

(01:16:52):
june has been a real disappointment For Fernando Tattists. Junior
and in, reality he played twenty nine INCREDIBLE mvp level
games and he's played fifty one games since, that hitting
around two, fifteen and that's horrifically. Bad that's the Worst

(01:17:13):
fernando we've ever. Seen it's not, yeah oh, No fernando's,
struggling it's this is the worst we've ever. Seen i've
never seen him look this down since twenty twenty. One
i've never seen him look this lost since twenty twenty.
One end of the, year arguing With manny flailing at,
everything my concernometer is gonna be the highest of the.

(01:17:34):
Group mine is gonna be. SEVEN i am more thinking
That fernando is just gonna have this really disappointing year
THAN i am that he's going to blow things open
and have it Post All Star BREAK mvp. Run, Now
i'd love for. Him, obviously these aren't, hopes these are.

(01:17:55):
Concerns so my concern meter is At my hope meter
is at fifty out of ten that he'll turn it,
around because this team's god going to go. Nowhere ever
in The fernando, era If fernando isn't a big, PARTY.

Speaker 2 (01:18:14):
I gotta. TAKE i gotta Take refernando, because LIKE i,
Said i've looked into a lot of his struggles and
like the slide, step the big, swing the little, swing
putting an opposite, field trying to pull it for power
AND i AND i apply this through my own, experience
in my own. LENS i Think fernando is a little

(01:18:36):
afraid of the baseball because he keeps getting hit with.
It he doesn't want to suffer a season ending injury
to one of these fastballs on his. Hands AND i
think that's when it's what has been in his head
the past couple. Months AND i think that is starting
to go, Away LIKE i see him taking a little
bit more aggressive, strides trying to protect the outer or.

(01:19:00):
Third so mine's low because out of you, know maybe
not performance the past. Month BUT i know exactly what
you mean when you talk about him being down and you,
know seemingly bummed, out because that's a huge thing for
our guy and it always has. Been But i've seen
positive signs, recently So i'm gonna stick WHERE i was

(01:19:22):
to feel good about.

Speaker 1 (01:19:23):
It all. Right last one maybe generates a little bit of,
conversation BUT i think it's also generally, easy but kind
of in the other, way which Is Xander, bogarts because you,
know it's almost unfair now to Compare Xander bogart's to
His boston. SELF i don't know that we'll ever see
That my concernometer That Xander bogarts will return to His
boston self is ten point. NOT i don't think we'll

(01:19:48):
ever even come to anything close to His boston. SELF
i think we've gotten the Reduced hyundai version Of Xander
bogarts and we always.

Speaker 2 (01:19:57):
Will he feels a bit like global warming and this
point in, That, yeah you can be concerned about. It
it is what it. Is bra might try not to
try not to move too close to the.

Speaker 1 (01:20:11):
Beach, YEAH i guess. My and of course as, such you,
Know rafy put in a ten For Xander. Bogarts so,
here just for the two of, us let me do
this concernometer That Xander bogarts will get back to his
two thy twenty three self the first year with The

(01:20:35):
podras two eighty, five three fifty four forty seven ninety.
Ops he's at two forty four three twenty, two three
thirty nine six sixty one right. Now but he has
hit over three hundred for the last two.

Speaker 2 (01:20:47):
Weeks, yes, yeah is that rolling X globa looking good?
Too hitting a home, run hitting home, runs hitting, Jacks,
Craig that's What Xander bogarts is. About he's about The.
Jacks i'm gonna be definitely the lowest Because i'm number.
One alls we Need xander to do is stay, healthy

(01:21:08):
play a solid. Shortstop he's played well. Defensively he's played
better than we expected. DEFENSIVELY i mean he's put up
five outs above average already this. Year and that's in
this conversation, too BECAUSE i need it to be ordered
none Done xander. Is i'm putting him right there with

(01:21:30):
tattoos like. CANT i feel like he can get to
twenty twenty. THREE i think he's shown some stretches this
year where he was locked in where he's pretty capable
of getting that ops well above seven and being a
valuable contributing member of the. LINEUP i feel like he
can do. IT i know we saw some real down

(01:21:51):
and out Of, xander and you talk about having a
bummed out. ATTITUDE i think he looked like the most
bummed out padre in recent history at times, here AND
i feel like he's turned a little bit of a
corner on. That SO i give me The Bogart's BLOOMER
t shirt because that's that's Where i'm, At.

Speaker 1 (01:22:11):
Okay so it'd be clear for him to get to
his career. Norms we all agree he's a. Ten but
to get to twenty twenty, three you think you're, four you're.
Optimistic AND i will put. IT i will put it
at definitely not a. Ten So i'll put it at
a nine point nine AND i will leave that point

(01:22:33):
down That xander can get back to what he was
in his first. YEAR i don't even know If xander's
not going to go on the injured list for a
month and a half coming up with a sort.

Speaker 2 (01:22:45):
So, true he's beat up the, shoulder the. Cramping, yeah
AND i do Think manny too needs The All star.
BREAK i feel like these guys are a little worn.
DOWN i Know manny's probably gonna play in the, game
but it's still it's still at from playing every, game,
uh you, know every single day like they have. Been
the guys from are run.

Speaker 1 (01:23:06):
Down, yeah, well maybe These concerno meters are run down.
Too you, know maybe the concernal meter is running tired
and so it's spinning out high.

Speaker 2 (01:23:14):
Ires you, know it.

Speaker 1 (01:23:16):
Can't spin with a centrifugal force to deliver the low
numbers that we want because it's. Tired.

Speaker 2 (01:23:21):
Concerns what's your concernometer About Bryce johnson and one fifty
guys crushing it Baby, Bryce Bryce, johnson his name said
this episode one hundred Revelation Bryce.

Speaker 1 (01:23:34):
Johnson you know? Who else is his?

Speaker 2 (01:23:39):
Name colak of the?

Speaker 1 (01:23:40):
Outfield, yeah you know? Else he's his name Mentioned Milana,
lasky four golds and an assists let's go this. Week
should be man of the match for the. WEEK i
don't even care that he doesn't play. Baseball he's been
so good for he deserves mentioned and cross. SPOT i
should put him on the Next Crossing streets as a
top recommendation On APPLE tv. Plus, like this kid's been

(01:24:02):
so good.

Speaker 2 (01:24:03):
AGAIN i just want to put some some positivity in
there after we had to go Through Xander.

Speaker 1 (01:24:06):
Bogrit that's it concerned me to put away until next.
Week Please, padres you KNOW i, mean keep hanging, on
keep hanging, on keep us on the edge of our.
Seat just please don't fall off the. Cliff. Please i'm
not going to ask for thriving right. Now all we
need is, Surviving so let's keep. Surviving, chris great, Work,

(01:24:28):
rafie hope you're good out, there and, yeah concern On
rafee like one point zero yeah, nothing living his best,
life raging moving forward all. Right he's not, there But chris,

(01:24:49):
is So I'm. Craig thank. You if you've gotten to
the end of the show and you haven't given us
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You subscribe to the show if you have not a
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