LTV Day 1334: Ukraine and Russia Have Incompatible Positions - Latynina.tv - Alexey Arestovych - Privateer Station: War In Ukraine

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good day. This is you know, Latina and the Alexeiri Stovich.
Good day, Alexei, hell Yulia. Please do not forget to
subscribe to my channel, to alexis channel and to click
clog button and to ask questions if you are watching
us live. All right, I will start with turning to

(00:21):
you Alexi for help, because I figured out I stopped
not only to understand what things happening mean, but also
I'm dumbfounded trying to understand what actually is happening. And
one of the things that I do not understand. For example,
first question is very simple. There is Financial Times, for example,

(00:42):
which wrote that Trump and Zelenski during their meeting did
not go well and Trump was basically forcing Zelenski to
give up Donbass to Russia. And on the other hand,
we see the letter from European Union leaders who support
the joint plan with Zaransky and Trump about freezing the

(01:04):
war not even along the border, but along the current
front line. And I'm trying to understand the current position
of Trump and the current position of Zanski. Is Trump
indeed forcing Zardansky to give up don Bus or did
he demand to freeze Russia alongside the front line currently?

(01:28):
So was he demanding like put In once or was
he demanding like Zenanski once and who spilled wrong data
to Financial Times in one case? If he indeed was
pushing Zlansky to give up on bus, then why European
leaders ascribe a different position to Trump? So I am
at a loss. What is his real position and why

(01:50):
did he change it? We do not know his exact
real position. We know what the inner circle is talking
about that and the drivers so called as I like
to refer to them, and we can also calculate what
exactly is happening, because, like I teach on the art

(02:11):
of thinking, you need to work with numbers. You have
different information coming from different sources, and technically, for example,
it could look like you have different digital rows seven
thirty five, five, zero, four, five, one two. What is
common common is number five? Right? If one hundred and

(02:34):
fifteen sources recall number five and a ton of other numbers,
then with a high probability, you can take that number
five as not a source, but as the most probable hypothesis.
So let's see and analyze what is common between these writings.
Everybody is still confirming that Trump is intending to finish

(02:57):
the war in Ukraine. He was promising that during his campaign.
This was one of the loudest slogans during his campaign.
He was accusing Biden in a lot of things. He
continues to do it now. He already undertook a ton
of effort and he is still taking more effort. He
extinguished according to his words, how many seven eight ten

(03:19):
right between Azerbaijan and Armenia. But Russian Ukrainian war is
still ongoing, but he undertakes regular efforts to stop it
in winter and summer in spring. Out of the recent events,
they were talking and encourage. Remember they were different ideas

(03:41):
floating around, called for aerials. His fire completes his fire.
As a result, Russian Foreign Minister FIGN Affairs comes out
and says that we need complete conclusion of this war.
For that we need four districts and crimea. Everything is
simple and easy to remember. He has all time ultimatum.
Implementation of sanctions means that Russian position was not accepted

(04:05):
and they did not agree. So don Bass was not
demanded by Trump to give up by the NaNs Kita putting.
Don't think it happened. Usually these things are not pushed
during negotiations, usually being flexible is more encouraged. You can

(04:26):
point to historic presidents in Korea, in Germany that porters
do change every fifteen years. Roughly, one thing is today,
one thing is tomorrow. Putting is not forever. These are
the things that are told during negotiations. It is highly
unlikely and uncommon to be brought up in a different

(04:47):
fashion of hey, you have to give up this district
because everything is productoled, everything remains in archives. Nobody wants
to have that blemish and your biography. Then I do
have a question who leaked such a scene to Financial Times?
Or maybe Financial Times sucked it out of their finger
while you're describing that this scene of Trump chasing Xeranski

(05:10):
to give up dun Beast during their meeting could not
have happened, well, Julia, How do press get their information?
They meet different advisors ex advisors who tell them under
different pretense that listen, I have something to share with you,
and it's only for you. If you refer to me

(05:30):
or reference me in this article, I will have huge
issues in my life. So please be mum about your
source than same sources or maybe a general or somebody
else is leaking another information or pretending to leak another
information to a different journalist from a different source, and
they paint a different picture. And then these journalists reach

(05:51):
out to each other. Eventually they usually picked in a
way so that they do communicate, and then they share
this these two different angles. When representatives of two warring
agencies or two warring sides of parties in the country
leaked different things, that's when they start posting all this stuff.

(06:15):
So according to the description Alexy, this fakery should have
been born in Britain. Maybe I don't think it's of
Ukrainian or American origin. Well, you to order a high
level article in the western world today is maybe one hundred,
one hundred and fifty thousand dollars, so that's not a
big deal. The statement of this caliber probably costs a

(06:43):
bit more, but what is and twenty average Ukrainian corruption
spends that a month, So this is really change pocket
change for them or the who resist the old Gark's position. Right, So, okay,

(07:07):
all say, then position of Trump is to freeze the
war along the front right. Well, exact Trump's position we
do not know. His position can be described as we
need to stop it. He gave enough time to both
sides and Basically, he continues to say that both sides
need to accept some mutually acceptable terms, and his rhetoric

(07:34):
hasn't changed in the last couple of years. It's just
Ukrainian media often omit the elements of pressure when that
happens or is being leaked to them, and Russian media
in return, of course, hyperinflates any pressure on Ukraine. So
each side prefers to pick what looks better for them

(07:59):
unless they want to instigate another wave against Trump or
trump phobia. Then they disclose something counter general sentiment of
their country. I'm remembering here, Alexi, that Putin did mention
that freezing along the front is unacceptable, and he's saying

(08:20):
this is what Europe needs. He has already seen that
in Minsk agreements and other ones before. He thinks that
he if he freezes war, Ukraine gets pumped with arms
and then the war starts all over again. So he
wants the final paper and the final condition to agree

(08:44):
final term that he can agree to. So situation when
Russian troops are attacking successfully moving, he sees as unacceptable
to freeze that war to go with this situation, I
don't know why would he agree to that exactly exactly, Yulia,
this is absolutely unreal. He continues steamrolling, and that's why

(09:09):
he is now facing more sanctions from Europe and the
United States. So at its core, situation looks like this.
Trump for nine months is continuing to offer Putin and
Russia an ideal exit from this situation, with saving some territory,
with alleviating sanctions, with saving face, with opportunity to proclaim

(09:34):
themselves a winner, to establish new relations with the Europe
and States. But Russia, after this double offer, has not followed.
It did not agree to it. This is what is
behind Budapest meeting being canceled. In order to cancel the
meeting of that level, you have to have significant negative effects, right,

(09:58):
negative things affecting it, which is the core of the problem.
Russia is not agreeing to other terms it demands for
districts and crimea and this is not acceptable for Trump.
Freezing along the front is what probably satisfies Trump. Is
what Zelensky confirmed in Brussels, and as a sign that

(10:22):
his meeting with Trump was rather failure. For Zelensky, he
met with European leaders right away after United States meeting. Instead,
he met with them immediately and that's usually a sign
that something did not go right. If everything was okay,
they could meet a month later, two months later with
European leaders to discuss how they split the money and support.

(10:45):
What public does not notice at large that Zelinski keeps
changing his positions very rapidly. About half a year ago
he was saying, we will fight the last Ukrainian. Now
he's ready to discuss the freezing lines. He's ready to

(11:09):
sign peace treaty along the front and he would prefer
Russia to be forced to sign this treaty, but he
doesn't want to give the territory beyond the front line.
I did not like Alexai the word how he changes
his opinion. And this is a rather negative connotation, that

(11:35):
changing position under pressure of circumstance, that there is something
negative in that. Well, Yulia, I am here poking fun,
not at Zelenski, but at those who usually use such
a term. The main changer or the main wind sock

(11:57):
in this situation is over twenty years of his career,
he made one hundred and eighty rotation from his original
position from the best friend of the West to the
worst enemy of the West. Wait, do you understand it correctly?
I'll say that Trump's position the first two times he

(12:19):
met Putin was much better for Puttin than his today's position,
the freezing along the front line, because as you mentioned today,
position is a bit unreal, and that today's suggestion from
Trump is probably an instrument and pressure. All right, everybody
there in politics changes their opinion depending on new circumstance,

(12:41):
change of position of China, position of Europe, other factors
in Middle East and Africa, they always keep correcting their
position Bullpark. It can be summarized as concessions from Putin
would surprise Ukrainians, and perhaps they still will. Maybe there
is a chance for that. It was mentioned on high

(13:04):
levels that put In is ready to give up Yersonze
Pororogi districts if he gets done Bus and Logansk back.
But this cannot be the first suggestion in the package.
This can only be done in exchange for serious other concessions.
Normalizing relations with the West promises that neither Europe nor

(13:26):
Russia will be a threat to each other. And it
depends how it is being presented. What is presented after
what is the step one step two? And depending upon
the success of the first offer, the second may get
on the table, or may not get on the table,
or it may be deferred to later times when this
is agreed. So Trump was suggesting different things. He initially

(13:51):
remember was suggesting to give up four districts and they'll
give up bonuses to Ukraine, so they'll be happy too.
And one Russia disagreed to that offer. The other side
was I'll give tomahawks to Ukraine and to help with you. Right,
So medium line for in between these two extremes would

(14:12):
be freezing the effort along the front and forcing Russia
to peace through the system of pressure. Nothing changed. That
story has been going since March of twenty two, since
Stumbul agreements. Why were they left? Were they abandoned on

(14:33):
the seventeenth of May? And I would remind here our
listeners that Butcha did not cancel these negotiations. They continued
for over a month, almost two months after that. I
was a participant of that, and that was the position
that it was being discussed that Ramstein will give so
much help to Ukraine that Russia will agree to freezing

(14:55):
along the front line most of the world. The gender
basically goes to diminishing the demands of Russia, diminishing that
June ultimatum of Putin and Russian position is, yes, we
can somewhat shrink our appetite, but we need to win
in some other aspect. And Russia is always adding Ukraine

(15:18):
to a bigger picture from Arctic to China, and depending
upon concessions or decisions in a geopolitics situation, they are
ready to move on the Ukrainian matter. They never were
hiding that. Even Puttin in his Valdai meetings was always
hinting at this is a probability now. Usually after things

(15:41):
are agreed upon behind the scenes, leaders somewhat leak certain
angles to that agreement in different meetings. Puttin just on
this year twice a thrice hinted at possible giving up
some territories to Ukraine. Remember he talked about possible referendum
on the occupy territories different ways. Therefore, Russians continue to

(16:04):
pressure that they want for districts and crimea demolitorization, denusification.
And this is our list that we do not want
to give up. If you do not agree with that,
we will continue fighting. The Western Ukraine position is that
you guys are too bold, your list is too long.
We can agree to our shorter list, and this shorter

(16:25):
list would include freezing along the front line, no intervention
to Ukrainian politics, and for that we will remove some sanctions.
This is ballpark the story, and that doesn't really change.
This is the core of contradictions and the sum of
this conflict. During the times of the war, positions have
not seriously fluctuated. There were some changes by China and

(16:50):
his position to be involved or not be involved, but
nothing major. Alexey. Then my question is how how much
relation to military reality does put in position have because
as I understand, Russia has accumulated enough military might at

(17:11):
the moment, and they perform significant pressure on Ukrainian side
on the front in Neopakrovsk and a lot of other
hotspots on the front, and they have some partial successes
as I understand. So what is happening in this regard

(17:32):
how much demands of Russia or demands of the West
look adequate if you look at them through the prism
of what's happening on the ground, Well, you know, what's
happening on the ground is also rather strange and ballpark
category because it depends upon which side is using this prism.

(17:54):
Russian propaganda is bluffing and saying that tomorrow your front
will collapse and will take the whole Ukraine. The West
points out that Russians embellish successes on the front and
they sincerely believe that their future success will be fairytalelike,

(18:17):
so it's difficult to talk to them. The West calculates
what is happening on the ground in Russian economy, in
Russian military, and they're very reserved about their successes, and
they do acknowledge that, yes, they do grind through Ukrainian forces.
But you were talking about capture of Pakrovska a year ago,
and we're still talking about Pakrofsk a year from that.

(18:39):
Russian troops are in Pakrosk now but still not fully taken.
And since Abdievka, Russia has not taken another township in
over a year. They might be able to take Kupensk
and Pakrovsk. Kupensk has two thirds of taken, but formally
not completely, so perhaps one they do so. Russian tempo

(19:04):
of pushing forward is increasing, indeed they have been increasing
since the beginning of the year. But if you measure
it with townships, which is not the best measuring point,
but ballpark, very popularized version of it. There is not
much happening on the front in this case, same course

(19:24):
corporation when Ukraine did counter offensives Liman, when our troops
were standing and guarding everything there and people were expecting
that push to not find its hold in Liman. But
it depends. You can paint different corners. In some parts

(19:47):
Ukrainians that's counter offensive. In others, Russians continue to push. Overall,
Russian armed forces have significant successes on the battle for
since the first of January of this year. That's one.

(20:07):
These successes, however, are not matching the claims of Ukrainian
propaganda that Russian army did not capture anything. This is
not true, and Ukraine propaganda is insisting more and more
that we can continue fighting for another hundred years and
Russians will die. So and Russian successes also do not

(20:29):
match their propaganda was just saying that just another push
on the whole Ukraine will collapse. So somewhere in the middle,
that's number two. This is reality. What is the potentiality
of it? Now? If Russia succeeds in mobilizing it's citizens
for more troops, that may change situation and This would

(20:53):
be the factor that is being discussed. This is definitely
a factor. Does Russia have this card to play, Yes,
they most likely do. Now does the West have enough
arms and resources to counter that? Sure, they do too.
Ukraine can grow at least enough military to hold the front.

(21:15):
On the same line, how do you expect Ukraine to
do that, Alexei? Oh, they can just become made it
harsher for mobilization. They're already spilling in some possible ways.
For example, one of the congressmen today mentioned that women
are hiding behind the backs of men in many countries

(21:36):
they do serve, so there's that venue. They can also
decrease the age of the men being drafted. They can
mobilize women to serve in non fighting positions, and of
course they can continue being more brutal in drafting efforts.
Do you think, Alexi, there'll be any uprising in Ukraine

(21:57):
against that. No, it can only probably create certain local resistance.
But if the West at large will not be objecting
to hardened efforts of mobilizations, they will probably be suppressed.
And trust me, Ukraine could do even devilish things like

(22:23):
courting one area of the city and pick everybody there
they find, and if need be, they can even enter
the houses, private houses and apartments looking for people. Constitutional
court is non functioning in Ukraine, there's nobody to counter
presidential efforts. So Ukraine generally has this potentiality. What it

(22:45):
points us to is that the war in the way
it is going can continue for the whole twenty twenty
six and most likely this is one of the scenarios
that it will go through because positions of both sides
are not comparable, not matching. Only big successful events on

(23:07):
both on one of the sides when the other will
fail can change it. If Russia manages to mobilize three
hundred thousand and throw them on the front, that will
definitely change situation. Ukraine will just if, for example, will
not have enough time to counter that, the front may
indeed start to collapse. In Russia, they do have a

(23:30):
capacity for training about one hundred thousand, but it will
take them at least six months with that capacity to
bring three hundred thousand people and that time win though
the West will be able to react and bring us
more new munitions and new tools, and Ukraine can also
harshen mobilization effort. Second option if the West all of

(23:52):
a sudden gives Ukraine a ton of bilty equipment and
we start destroying Russian targets at large. Right. Third card,
Ukraine succeeded in mobilizing, brings another one hundred to two
hundred thousand people to the front, and we finally would
have enough density on the front to slow Russians down

(24:13):
to basically ass telmate. What will remain from Ukraine in
this case, Oh, that's a question. Number two, Yulia. We
have one point five million men hiding right now. If
only we recruit two hundred thousand of that, Ukraine will
not really change much. So meantime, Russia is relying on

(24:36):
its capability of increasing the effort, and they do have
some support of China if they need to. The West
is also resisting because they have not invoked the most
crippling Section sanctions against Russia, which could create significant economic
issues for Putin's regime. Not that Russia will collapse immediately,

(24:57):
but Russia will probably a sudden urge to go and negotiate.
Ukraine is resisting because they do understand that it has
enough potentiality, and the West is not really cutting Ukraine
off from support, so nobody has a serious argument. None
of the sides do and the sides do not go,

(25:20):
do not fall for anything that is on the table
right now. Meantime, they're trying to contain the armed conflict
in the framework that exists, and it can continue in
such framework till twenty twenty seven. If nothing significant changes,
this will continue riding as it rides. Okay too, summarize it.

(25:45):
Positions of both sides are not compatible, all I say.
And it seems that it will be solved on the
ground until both sides are one of the sides decides
to come to agreement exactly. And this is where the
statement of Trump about implementing more sanctions indicates too that

(26:07):
another attempt to find peaceful resolution failed and everybody is
now looking at the front and figuring out what is
happening there on the ground and in the air. One
more news we didn't talk about. Russia is trying to
open a second front. That's an option that's not happening yet,
but that's something that we have not discussed as an option.

(26:28):
Russia could open a second front in Europe. I like say,
more news coming that we have three oil refineries burning.
One is burning in Romania, one in Hungaria supporting Slovakia
and the others. And I see Polish Minister of Foreign

(26:49):
Affairs probably yes him, They're already welcoming these oil refineries
burning together with the sanctions applied against Luquill. So some
sanctions came as drones, another as sanctions against Russia. Yeah,
three factories is interesting. Could be a diversion, but question

(27:10):
is who is doing it. Could be one part of
Europe against the other, could be Ukrainians against Russian refineries,
or those who help Russians in Europe. And the third
Russians could be doing it to themselves, creating certain political
interest or refrain in Europe. Ale see we I think

(27:32):
went through that with the nord Stream. Right, these explosions
happened after polls released somebody who was a suspect in
the nord Stream explosions and saying that they want to
give a military order to that person, but since it's
a court, we can't, but we release him. So Yuliah,

(27:54):
we have I mentioned just three different theorists who could
be doing that. I'm leaning towards Ukraine doing it because
this is quite an our character and we demonstrated that
we are capable of doing it. Yeah, this is a
significant correction to those three versions, because otherwise we may

(28:16):
also acknowledge that Trotsky perhaps could have been killed as
a result of the family coral right, right, but significantly Yeah,
I had to mention Julia two other options, and it's
just that Ukrainian theory has longer legs. I think I
also want to mention here. I like to say that

(28:37):
Raslavsikorski expressing some hope that Major Madieira will finally succeed
in destroying gas pipe Dorogebo friendship that goes from Russia
through Ukraine, and he do you think this is happening

(28:58):
because some part of Europe has blasted or because part
of Europe that wants to support Ukraine just averts its
eyes from these problems. Well, at least you can see
that Poland is not against it, right, not extraditing the

(29:19):
aspect of a crime that General Prosecutors of Germany demanded
to be extradited. This is a political position. So at
least it's Poland, and we can suspect it's not just
Poland in this camp, all right. I wanted to also
finish up with some prognosis regarding the front because I

(29:42):
saw I saw a prognostigation by John Mershammer, who is
quite close to what you sometimes refer to, that Russia
may get eight districts of Ukraine, so forty percent of
the pre war Ukraine. There'll be only small about the
sixty percent of Ukraine remaining, and that will not be

(30:03):
joining NATA. Yes, surely this option may happen under certain conditions,
but I would say this would be the most unfavorable
option for Ukraine, and it's not correct to expect that
this will be the most likely option. Usually Ukraine goes

(30:26):
somewhere along the middle path along c out of A
to f right. His option is close to f Capturing
additional districts may only happen if Russia succeeds ideally and
Ukraine and the West fail with everything they do. Then yes, again,

(30:51):
this would be a change of Russian agenda, which would
have to change his position again and somehow sell to
the West, to China and India as well. Right now
in their constitution is for districts and crimea. For over
a year, they have not been changing this ultimatum, regardless

(31:13):
of Chinese Sea, Gentpin visiting Moscow, Moody visiting put In,
Trump quarreling with Moody Modi being re elected, and suddenly
Russia and Russia did not fret along all that, and
now they suddenly would need to change that, they would
need a serious basis. Well, Alexei, they may not change

(31:36):
the ultimatum. They can may perhaps capture them. Well, what
is to capture Julea? Capture in Russian terms is very slow.
They've been capturing Pakrovsk for over a year. So if
we had four more districts, how long it will take them?
I can agree with that, Alexei, because they are not
too fast. And the Center of International Research also reviews

(32:02):
to possible options. One is they look at Mersheimer's projection
and say that this is less probable, although not impossible.
And the second one they say the Central Strategic and
International Research, which is also rather profitable from Moscow an
eternal war of low intensity that leaves Ukraine to be

(32:25):
some sort of purgatory and Putain continues to enjoy whatever
he wants. Yeah, I can agree with that that if
we project that the SAR continues for the next ten
to fifteen years, just like as it goes now, Russia
then might take six to eight districts in this timeframe,

(32:48):
they will have to lose three million dead and Ukraine
probably will lose a lot of people. And Russian Western
Russian economy that Ukraine can reach will probably be destroyed
and most of Ukraine economy will be destroyed too, But
it will take them maybe five, seven, ten years. And

(33:09):
ongoing conflict that sometimes flares up and then comes down.
Most countries that have ongoing conflict, that's how they go
peace peace. Then suddenly there's a flare up when some
jets got up, flew destroyed something, some special forces went
to some near the border operation, or some vessels collided

(33:30):
at sea. Could be. And what will happen with Europe
in this time frame? Do you think, Oh, Europe will
militarize itself, And it is already doing that. Seattle is
already talking about that. He acknowledged that pro military leaders
have prevailed in Europe who are betting on increasing military

(33:53):
industrial complex and equipping Ukraine Europe sorry with the military
equipment and proper sized armies and everything. Also, it's taking
anti immigrant measures. They're somewhat under the carpit. They're not
trying to cause to store too much reaction. But I

(34:16):
just saw before the stream that for example, Portugal band
Hige jobs and European taxi drivers as I call them,
are saying the following that migrants are slowly being pushed away.
LGBT agenda is being dropped, and Europe is aiming to

(34:38):
get to condition where Russia would not be able to
talk to them from the position of power. But it
would take them about ten years five to ten years
to get there. And these are plans, so we'll see
if they will succeed in getting there. Do you really
think Europe will be able to achieve that goal? Because

(35:00):
I'm looking at the German economy that used to be
the locomotive of Europe, and I don't see it now.
I see the Dutch taking away experia from China, but
it turns out to be a significant issue for them

(35:22):
more than a profit. It causes other ripples economically in Europe.
Then I see that group in European Parliament is demanding
to audit seventeen billion euros that European Commission gave to
different non government organizations who are fighting for immigrants, transgenders,
global warming and all that. How can they be called

(35:46):
non government organization when they're getting so much money from
the government, and that's a more philosophical question. Or I
do see in the news that in Netherlands, every Somali
immigrant costs a budget one point two million euros during
their lifetime. And when Mertz is opening mouth and seeing

(36:09):
something about migrants, I see some activists getting one hundred
and twenty thousand against Mertz, who is supposedly racist. And
there are those girls walking with cardboards, brothers of Ukrainian
cardboards that are written with as different slogans to the

(36:30):
fact that we're not afraid of migrants, we're afraid of
racist merts. So I am full of questions whether European
elite that is in power now, whether they're even capable
to conduct militarization of Europe or because when I'm looking

(36:54):
at all these hustling by European diplomats who offer reachable options,
unreachable and unagreeable peaceful plans, I have only want to
not be a censor that the guys do want the
word to continue. And I also start to have ideas

(37:17):
that the story is above the level of competence, same
as this war was beyond the level of competence of
Ukrainian authorities. Right now, I'm sorry, Well, if they would
not be changing, they would not be doing an audit
of those seventeen billion euros. Oh, this is a private initiative.

(37:40):
This is a private initiative of the people on the
right who are being pushed away from elections in Europe. Well,
there are patriots in Europe for migrants, and there are
patriots for reviewing of where we spend our money in Europe. Well,
already have nine right leaning governments, out of which we
can say that three could be called ultra right or

(38:03):
very right, and this trend is growing centric. Then left
centric countries and governments already have discredited themselves significantly. But
even these governments on the left have already signed away
so much money for military revival that nobody wants to

(38:25):
stop that. They're still pushing out a lot of criminal
migrants from Europe, like in Germany, they took the whole clan,
they gave one thousand euros twelve hundred euros per person
and just extradited all of them back to Syria. Andand

(38:50):
for me, it is obvious it would be somewhat questionable
for europe leaders to come out with these statements, but
there is a certain motion Europe to make sure that
by twenty thirty five there'll be very few migrants to Europe.
What serves as the factual support to that the degree

(39:13):
that police started to work in all European countries against
pro Palestine meetings. Really, oh you haven't seen. I keep
seeing people being captured for likes. No, no, no, Look
at the recent German and French police actions. They take

(39:34):
position in favor of Palestinian country, Palestine as a country,
but pro Palestine meetings are being disbanded with maximum force.
And police is never initiating any of this. It's not
their initiative to be forced or not forceful or not.
They're always being told how to and what I'm seeing,

(39:58):
they're being told to be very hard. Now why so
because okay, accepting Palestine as a country, that's one issue.
That's loyalty of Arabic countries, and that's a plus for Europe.
But they were other protests, and the protests of support

(40:18):
of Palestine have nothing to do with acknowledging the country.
So they're being disbanded, they're being pushed out. In Britain,
there was about over a million people protesting the current
politics and supporting pro British lines official media, we're talking
about one hundred and fifty thousand. But I've been there.
I've seen that with Mayan eyes, it was over a million.

(40:39):
So the trend is undeniable, and it will take them sometime,
but I believe they will get to a certain point.
And Europe is already starting from a good position. They
have two thousand jets. This is in their armed forces together.
This is a significant number. What do you think the
United States will say about that? Because I think their

(41:01):
first Ideallexy was to make a big buffer state from
Europe that does not have its own army. Trump now
wants Europe to pay more money and to build up
their military. No, United States will support that. Both Republicans
and Democrats will sell their arms to Europe with pleasure,

(41:21):
and with pleasure they will occupy the oil and gas
markets of Europe. That's exactly what they're doing, all right.
Let's also go back to some other things that are
happening in front of us, and I don't know exactly
how to describe what I'm seeing. So about tomahawks, They

(41:43):
vanished into the sunset, and Trump gave a speech that
one can read as he was never going to give
them really because it takes over a year to learn
how to use them. So this was more from the
elements of pressure to exert on Putin, but not the
real thing. But later Trump said that they allowed Ukraine

(42:03):
to use long range missiles as far as they can.
But Trump media said that, and Trump came out later
and said that this is a false, fake news. However,
he said that if these missiles will fly, this will
not be from the United States. So here I am
made of questions whether Ukraine has long range missiles or not,

(42:25):
and I don't care which ones, whether it's Flamingo or
hell Fire, Pekola Ukrainian Maid, and what is the position
of Trump. Well, those who don't know, storm Shadow worked
I think yesterday on the chemical factory in Bransk in

(42:46):
Russia that is manufacturing explosives. But Bransk is the near
city to the border. So the news that was mentioned
that the limit on the range missile was lifted. So yeah,
storm Shadow is not Ukrainian for now. They're German and

(43:08):
British and they fly for five hundred seven hundred kilometers.
That's rather far. How do you limit it? And we
will see their use because using missiles and the long
range targets in Russia. That differs from the results that
UAVs can carry. Again, everybody has smartphones. People will take

(43:31):
videos of that, and everybody will see how it happens.
For now, we only hear that it's Ukrainian propaganda that
is saying that. But we will see the actual results
when they start flying. Spect when the missiles indeed will

(43:51):
start hitting targets beyond five hundred kilometers in the depth
of Russian Federation, that's when we can talk that something
is being used right now, not so impressive, and I
can predict a lexay reaction of Putting in this case,
even if it's not tomahawks. He'll probably say that these
missiles are being targeted with help of the United States

(44:13):
or Great Britain, and now he is officially conducting war
with both, or at least will threaten Okay, he might.
What does it change a third World war? No, there
won't be a third World war. How do you think
Putin will react, Well, he'll be screaming and squealing and

(44:35):
demanding aid from maybe China or Korea. Maybe he will
conduct some provocations against Europe more intensively. Maybe not under
the threshold sub threshold, but actually above threshold actions. For example, Oh,
his green man appearing in Estonia, for example, and what

(44:57):
then or some unknown people, unknown armed people would take
over some of the islands. Well, there'll be an interesting
situation for Estonia whether to destroy them by force or
to conduct long negotiations. Negotiations will always flow in the
same format. If you stop hitting our long range targets

(45:20):
with your tomahawks, will remove those green men from your borders.
So you think that the appearing of those green soldiers
on Estonian land is real? Yeah, as an option. Russian
Federation has it. Well, they will probably say that they

(45:41):
are local patriots who are doing that right, Narva People's
Republic in Narva. How many Russian speaking population they have, Yeah,
no Russian influence, they just the patriots. Surprising. We've went
through that in Ukraine and done bus and Crimea. Still
think Alexi, this is a step towards the Third War.

(46:02):
Estonia is a member of NATO. No Julia. I don't
believe there'll be any Third World War. The overtone window
has passed a long time ago. The attacks of oil
station o refineries with drones in the NATO countries, that
technically is an event that can create that can start

(46:24):
third World war. But even under Biden, when Russian jet
destroyed American drone in the Black Sea, right, or when
Biden destroyed some of the Puteon's soldiers in the third country,
what they had two hundred dead, No Third World War,

(46:46):
nothing happening. Same situation here. You do not start a
third World war, a nuclear war because of some several
hundred green men on the islands in Estonia. All right,
So does have this Wagner like mechanism to use I acknowledge,
all right, So EU and the United States still have

(47:09):
a mechanism. And I want to turn to you for
some understanding, to understand how difficult it is. EU adopted
nineteenth package of sanctions. Everything is very touchy there. They
basically forbade suppliers to sell roses, rhododendrons, azalias, kids trollers

(47:31):
and toys for kids to Russia. So I don't know
if Russia can survive without kids toys, most of them
are being brought and sold from China anyway. But American sanctions.
They slapped sanctions on two biggest Russian oil companies, lock
Oil and rose Neft work hit and I wonder how

(47:53):
serious is that. Listen, Julia, I'm not economist. It's difficult
for me to estimate how serious that is. Do taxi
drivers like they're saying anything. No, they don't. They think
it's these sanctious are sensitive, duchy, but not serious. They
were factually stating that they have not slammed any serious

(48:16):
sanctions from the United States were still negotiating. There was
another news. There is an interesting audit company who got
a request from British government to verify all crypto purchases

(48:36):
and transfers coming and going from Ukraine. And this is
a very serious company that actually did cost Moldova it's government.
The government ordered the audit from this company and then
had to resign because members of this government were stealing.
So this also remains as a record and it can

(48:59):
be requested by a next government. So that may be
an interesting financial investigation of all the imaginations of Ukrainian government.
And that went rather quietly under the radar. But this
is one of the most serious news in the sphere
of the western audit of Ukrainian corruption and public So
this is a pressure, and this is a significant hint

(49:19):
as a pressure on both sides. Trump said yesterday rather
precisely that both sides will have to forfeit something. Well,
we just discuss all say that, considering so different interests
that Ukraine and Russia represent, and also I'm under impression

(49:42):
that European bureaucrats they are producing some legal restraints and
it's almost like their function of body. And since they
want to present some nicer looking bureaucratic document, one of

(50:03):
the results of that is that the positions of both
sides are so different, cannot be married to each other,
and both sides have to or end up resorting to
figuring it out, duking it out on the battlefront. And yeah,
you let nobody is going to forfeit anything. They're not

(50:25):
ready for it. Everybody's fighting, honestly fighting. All right, let
me ask you another question, Say, what happened at the
possible meeting of Trump and Zelinski? What possibly happened? There
any new information servicing about it? No, I don't know

(50:46):
what else I can talk about in regards to that meeting,
except for the ones I already mentioned. Okay, so we
discussed that, but I want to summarize it. I guess
Donald Trump refused from meeting put In in Budapest. He doesn't
want to spend time in Vain for a futile meeting,

(51:06):
and let's see what happens in the next two days.
We will inform you about our actions. And this is
a code. A lot of things are happening. So how
did the idea came about the meeting in Budapest, Well,
it was simple. The United States suggested that they will

(51:28):
be giving tomahawks to Ukraine and implied that they will
be increasing military pressure and Russia if Russia doesn't come
to the table, and Moscow said, okay, let's discuss. Then
Zelenski came for a visit and I cannot transfer tomahawks
because otherwise I won't have negotiation with Moscow. So it

(51:51):
was announced that Ukraine is not getting tomahawks, and Moscow
used lever of the voice to say, we don't believe
in tamahawks. This is just bluff. We do not change
our position. We have nothing else to talk about, so
there is nothing to discuss. We're not coming and we
need to either increase pressure somehow or cancel the meeting.
And Trump canceled the meeting and increase the pressure via sanctions.

(52:20):
I also heard another interesting point. All I say that
American president is not meeting with anybody more than twice
in cadence. No, no, this is not true. Trump can
meet a million times, especially on such an important matter.
He is just not ready to move on the really

(52:40):
painful points for Russia, such as armaments of Ukraine and
more advanced military tools. Now what most people do not
understand what the West is doing. This is not military's
supply of Ukraine. This is signals to signals to correct

(53:03):
its position. Wait, why would Russia need to correct the position? Exactly?
That's if it's just a signal, Why do they need
to correct That's exactly what's happening, Ulia, Since it's a hint,
a sign A signal doesn't change anything. Why Russia needs
to change its position? If the Americans transferred forty tomahawks
to Ukraine, will it change anything? Probably not two hundred

(53:27):
Maybe two hundred will not so much. If Americans transferred
two thousand tomahawks, that might change all right. On the
other Handalex, I think that Europeans have several points that
need to follow a return of children, sanctions on companies,
et cetera. Julia, this is just a declaration, right right,

(53:49):
That's what I'm reading that frozen reserves of Russian companies
will be spent to rebuild Ukraine, according to European statement.
And I am made of questions to you understand that
European bureaucrats who wrote this declaration between somewhere between fighting
with global warming and setting up the eternal victory of

(54:10):
gender equality, that when a crocodile sees that list of
demands that is absolutely unrealistic and does not reflect the
situation on the front, Russian crocodile says, well, okay, I
will continue fighting. Yes, you're right, this is declaration. In Crumlin,
they understand this is just a declaration because this is

(54:32):
the same zone of politics that touches upon all these
non government organizations forms about changing Russia that they need
to repent fall apart, get a grant or a photo
session or exchange business cards. Hundreds of thousands of bureaucrats
and non government organizations live off that. And I participated

(54:54):
in these events at some point in my life quite
a bit until I understand the core value of them.
Are they four? And now I'm refusing And there are
people who live on that for years, for decades. They're
making the whole career of that same as the Ukrainian
Congress Rada adopted the law about interacting with decolonized peoples

(55:19):
of Russia. The value of that law is less than
the value of the last year's newspaper that some somebody
living under the bridge wrap his stale sandwich in. So
this is grant eating people producing documents sponsored by these

(55:39):
grants in Gremlin. They definitely understand what has power what
doesn't have and there are only two things that can
change reality that have enough force to do so. Number
one is transfer of significant volumes of armaments and military
equipment and aid in using that for Ukraine to use

(55:59):
it against Russian fora duration and its economic and military
targets and economic sanctions. First, armaments are not really being
transferred to Ukraine in the required volumes, not a single
moment since twenty twenty two. They were. At the peak
of the transfer, Ukraine was only getting enough to hold

(56:21):
Russian attack. That calls the quantitative advantages Russians had in
certain parts of the front and only on certain nomenclature
of the items. There was never set a full system
of support. There's never just one type of armament that
will change everything. What else the Ukraine's getting Intel financial
help as elements of restraining Russia and sanctions against Russia

(56:47):
were never crippling. All those nineteen packages, they never were
crippling because the West never, in bold letters here wanted,
never wanted to spoil the relations with Russia, much less
to cripple or destroyed. That's why Ukrainian side is so upset,

(57:07):
and they have right to be so and always upset
that those himers took forever to transfer that everybody in
the West apparently looking to them as impotent, who disabled
mentally and cannot understand what putin really is. And when
Russian propagandists are screaming that they're fighting with NATO, that

(57:30):
NATO fifty six countries are supplying arms to Ukraine and
Russia is successfully fighting this war, we cannot be serious
about these screens right, Not as single times there was
built a system of armaments transfer higher than the level
of brigade. This is about nothing. And besides that, I

(57:59):
told you that even before the counter offensive that United
States bet so much on back in the day, those
positions that Ukrainian General Command requested support for from the
United States. I as somebody who was privy to these documents,
saw what was on them on the most needed nomenclature.

(58:24):
There was nothing excessive. There was actually the way Ukraine
asked it was on the lower threshold of what is
needed for counter offensive. Our demands were fulfilled on the
highest at twenty eight percent. On average it was fifteen
maybe eighteen percent. So if we asked for one hundred rifles,
we get eighteen. If we asked for one hundred bombs
and amissiles, we got fifteen. And this was the pivotal

(58:48):
moment of war. That could become a pivotal moment, it
could become a breaking point. So the West did not
even come to this war. They're not really they're like
wagging their tail, and that's where the eight is coming from.
And they're not going so far to do any escalations
with Russia transferring two hundred Bradley machines for the biggest
war in Europe. This is about nothing. Yeah, And they're

(59:13):
promising some missiles and some other vehicles right within the
next fifteen years. And this is for future development of
Ukraine in the future, not for immediate fight. So yes,
in the future, when Sweden will finish and we'll need
to re arm some of the Ukrainian Air Force will

(59:33):
give you some of the greenpins, and we'll teach your
pilots and train you. This is not for the immediate war.
How many have sixteen's were transferred and how long did
it take them to transfer one a year? This is
not about war, Julia, This is not about winning in
this war. The real aid to win in this war

(59:57):
was only from North Korea. They really gave significant volumes
of armaments to Russia, as was recorded later, and they
actually were in the front and they fought there. And
that's it. End of the first hour. M

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LTV Day 1334: Ukraine and Russia Have Incompatible Positions - Latynina.tv - Alexey Arestovych

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}LTV Day 1334: Ukraine and Russia Have Incompatible Positions - Latynina.tv - Alexey Arestovych