War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1111: Zelensky Politics is but a Crude Fading of Ukraine. Arestovych, Feldman

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:11):
Hello, everybody, this is Project Alfa. My name is Nicolae
Feldmon and you're watching Ward Diary live with Lexeri Stoviage.
Hello Alexi, Believing everybody. It is one and eleventh day
of this war and Russian invasion into Ukraine. It's time
to take some stock. Let's look at the Course corporation.

(00:31):
It appears that there is a huge risk that the
territory that is being held by Ukraine in Russia's Kursk
district does not have much optimism for future holding. Do
you think Ukraine should continue keeping it, making an effort
to or what do you think? First of all, Nikolay,

(00:53):
let's not pick the words for this situation. It is
a very shady situation there. It's a food bar. It's
been there for a week already. It is rather catastrophic,
and I'm not going to give too much joy to
our enemies. They know what's happening there. I think the
same pattern repeats, the same scenario that we usually run

(01:17):
into with our troops, where we make a shitty mistake
and then it turns gradually into a screwed up situation
and then a food bar, and then finally from the
top of administra Mount Olympus. There are some notes and

(01:37):
some official statements coming down that something is slightly not
going well for our troops and we will probably review
our position and our strategy. Usually after that, Suski, our
Ukrainian chief commander of the army, also known as Zelenski's parrot,

(02:01):
comes out and says, no, this is bullshit. We have
enough resources and we have control of the situation. Meantime,
the officers and soldiers who serve there, they scream in
their social media that it is indeed full bar and
the whole thing is beyond repair. And sooner or later
it usually ends with us withdrawing from that district, usually

(02:22):
withdrawing through a small bottleneck that is being shot through
and through by our enemies where they send their UAVs,
and we have to abandon our wounded and dead and
equipment and try to seep through that small narrow bottleneck
back to Ukraine territory. And unfortunately our leadership learns nothing.

(02:43):
Look about a week ago and during this week I
saw some of your commentary about the fire control of
the only logistics road that is used to supply our
troops in that district. It appears that nobody may right
conclusions at a time. What conclusions do you think need
to be made right now to save or try to
salvage something in this situation? On which level? Nikolay? Well,

(03:07):
I don't know. It's difficult for me to even define
the level. Not on a strategic I think at this
point it's too late. Maybe operative on the operative level, Nikolay.
The group that is realizing the operative command in that area,
they will be listening to the commander in chief. Commander
in chief will be listening to our supreme commander, and

(03:30):
that supreme commander is the one holding the strings. Zelenski
is so okay, what do you think he should have
done in this situation? Do you mean Zelenski or yeah, Zelenski. So.
Zelenski needs to stop doing the bullshit that he usually does.

(03:50):
I know it's difficult for him because he's been doing
it for the last six years, but he needs to
gird his loins and come out and acknowledge that political
situation demands change. That this operation brought us enough political
dividends and was rather successful. But in the moment when

(04:10):
the operative situation is threatening to our troops, I take
personal decision to withdraw our troops from that district and
organize the next defensive position somewhere on the border between
Sumi and Kursk districts, let's say, and that fortification should
have been organized about Let's say the operation started in August,

(04:33):
so about five months ago. That fortification should have already
been planted there, and it should have been continuously fortified.
They should have the main defense areas, secondary defense installations,
false defense installations, everything by the book, and what usually
Ukrainian Army fails to do. David Gendelmann, analyst is usually saying,

(04:58):
in regards to the circumstances, the following thing, that Russian
Army took the good and the bad from the Soviet army,
and Ukrainian Army seems to have taken only the bad
things from the Soviet Army. In the Soviet Union, Ukraine
generals would have been probably executed already at the first
air like that, or at the maximum when they repeat
it in the second time, they would have been summarily executed.

(05:20):
Our heroes in quotes, they already facing the fifteenth cauldron
of that manner during this war. These are the ones
who never change anything. They always stay the course and
over and over again step on the same raks and
end up in the same cauldrons. About a month ago

(05:43):
they should have started taking decisions when Russians started to
break through and starting to cut through our positions. They
failed to react to that because Ukrainians never surrender, never
withdraw until we are all dead, right, that's our motto.
So you have to be proud of that Khursk district

(06:03):
operation that slowly becomes as simle operation now and those
who are not proud to execute them and send them
to Pakrovsk defense, they will be dead very soon. Why
not that seems how we're doing things, all right, Ale say,
here's a screenshot from another telegram channel. The name of
the Stotram channel is employee of the Office of the President.

(06:30):
I don't know if that actually is, but they're saying
here that you will be surprised what these territories in
Kirk District would be exchanged for a small piece of course,
district will be exchanged for significant pieces of Ukrainian land.
And that was posted just a month ago, seventh of February.
By seventh of March, we have a completely different rhetoric.

(06:51):
And here's the second part of it on the screen.
As well on the Curse District. Everything is said there
General Command is planning a withdrawal, no dates yet, so
that change of rhetoric, but I think indicates at the
bare minimum that they wanted to exchange this occupied territory
for other Ukrainian territories. And we could not treat this

(07:11):
signal as the verified one from the Office of the President.
It could have been somebody pretending to be that that
it comes from the central signal. But still in your
view that piece of Course District. Do you think it
was planned to be exchanged for something with Russia or
traded for something. Well, let's go in an orderly fashion.
This channel is being run by Petrov. He's servicing the

(07:34):
needs of the Office of the President. Second, I don't
know what they were planning there, Nikolay. They should have
been a third message in this deal, but we're not
seeing it. Let me make that third message. It should
say that the moment our General Command will withdraw our
troops from Course district. Nothing will and it will only begin.

(07:54):
Russian Command has a group there already aggregated, and the
question as what political tasks do they sit in front
of this group? And if I was Russian command. I
would use this opportunity to follow the retreating Ukrainian army,
which would be disorganized somewhat at this moment, and continue
to get something to gain over in Ukrainian territory, first

(08:18):
of all, to finish destroying the retreating enemy, and second
to get some political points. If I was put in
and in Ukraine, will like to post a question like this, Okay,
let's withdraw the troops, and you would go look in
the Kremlin and ask them, guys, do not do anything.

(08:40):
We're withdrawing, Stay tight and listen to us, and do
not do anything until we are done. You expect them
to behave like this. Do you remember how they were
withdrawing their troops from Kiev, Chernigev and Summa districts, and
how we were kicking there butt all the way to
their territory. And very likely that's what they'll be doing

(09:02):
with our troops as they're withdrawing. But they've been doing
their retreat in a very organized way. I don't think
we will be able to because they did it at
the right time. And I don't think we'll be able
to because we overstayed for two months and when this
organization started to emerge, especially or including the transportation of

(09:27):
wounded and dead and logistics supplies bringing more munitions to
a brigade. I can say that one of the brigades,
I'm not going to name it, but a week ago
the whole brigade artillery had only four shells left. After that,
Seriski comes out to the cameras and says, you know,

(09:47):
we control everything. There is nothing to be worried about.
You're just exacerbating the situation. Drink some tea, calm down.
Everything is good, and that's why Russians will likely be
following very weakened and probably disorganized hodgepodge mix of our
troops that is difficult to manage even in peace times

(10:09):
or when everything is under control. And if Russians are
not idiots, they will, let's put it delicately here, probably
present us with a significant number of issues on our
territory as well. And if this story inverts and they
end up capturing something in Summa District, then what will

(10:30):
be the end of this brave political task that was
set in front of our troops a half a year ago.
It will end up by another defeat of the Supreme
Commander of Ukraine and Ukrainian art forces. Why because Ukrainian
soldiers do not know how to fight. No, they showed
really good results. Ukrainian officers do not know how to fight,

(10:54):
of course they can. Ukrainian generals fail to organize things
on the operative level, they can to a degree. Then
why because political leadership is posting tasks that are defeating
and destroying our army. This is the solution to this riddle.
War is a continuation, is an extension of politics. Army

(11:14):
is fulfilling the orders of politicians, and our politicians sitting
there in the office on Bancolle Street, they're making such orders.
They're giving such orders and setting such tasks that after
executing it, our army ends up with being destroyed or
having to retreat and having to withdraw. This is the reason.

(11:38):
It is not because they do not know how to fight.
It is because of the way the tasks are set
and the fact that we keep failing to know how
to manage cauldrons. If we were withdrawing on time, things
would have been different. But our glorious leader is a
very unbending and will powerful and he is okay facing

(12:01):
all the cauldrons in the world. So that's why we
do not withdraw, you know, Lexi, what's surprising to me
in this story. If a Supreme Commander of Ukraine probably
should have been understanding the difficulty and the fragility of
this situation, he probably should have expedited the process of
negotiations to change something or to exchange district for something

(12:24):
that they were maybe planning to exchange it for. But
this was not happening, and the track of negotiations was
prolonged to the maximum degree and was disrupted by the
Supreme Commander himself. Then what's the reason? What's the strategy
behind capturing this district? Probably from the first couple of months,

(12:46):
it was obvious that Ukraine will not be able to
hold this territory indefinitely. It is very difficult and problematic
to hold. How can one make decisions the way he
did in relation to this consideration. I understand that the
question may sound incorrect, but I'm trying to find some

(13:07):
logic in this whole situation. Well, the logic is very simple, Nikolay.
When these people die, the drafting committee will plug the
new ones off the streets. Is it the problem? Well,
it's understood that it's difficult to hold this piece forever

(13:28):
of Russian territory or that's not clear clear to whom
nikolay to Zianski. He already answered all questions, but he'll
remain stubborn as long as he wants to. And how
much Ukraine will pay for that, that's not his business,
especially given that half of Ukraine is giddily supporting him

(13:49):
looking at the posts and the social media. So he
probably feels himself in his own element, struggling with Trump,
who wants to seize on this a davity, hostilities on
the front and the fact that a couple dozen thousand
soldiers will be killed or end up missing an action
or wounded and nimed. Who cares well? Okay, let's say here,

(14:14):
I want to bring the data from one of the pollings.
Extreme Scan did a polling in Russia and Ukraine about
the current ongoing phase of preliminary negotiations about ceasefire on
the twenty sixth of February. It was done in both countries,
and what's important to note here is that President Trump

(14:39):
in Ukraine before his meeting with Zanski was trusted by
fifteen percent. In Ukraine after this meeting, only eight percent
still trust him. However, support to the position of Vladimir

(15:01):
Zelenski negotiations with Trump, eighty two percent are approving and
only thirteen percent are strongly not in favor. Well, Nikolay,
these eighty two percent shouldn't be taken with a grain
of salt. That means that this data could be skewed.

(15:21):
Plus you know they why should we then worry? Right?
If eighty two percent think president is okay, then all
these people who support President Zelenski in his activities, they
should be supportive of his actions in course district. And
I guess the logical extension would be for all the
mothers of the soldiers who are texting or calling them

(15:43):
from that district, who are fighting there, saying that you know,
my two best friends are dead, one is wounded and maimed,
and we could not evacuate him, and we're running out
of bullets and shells. These mothers who are supportive of
Zelenski apparently should be responding that, you know, Trump is
in charge of the difficulties we're facing. Zelansky knows what

(16:05):
he is doing. You just sit tight there in the
trench and die for the country if the president wants
you to. Right, if we follow these eighty two percent
that are supportive of Zelensky and they're logic. Question number
seven from this poll, how do you judge the behavior
of Zelensky and his team in the Oval Office? Seventy

(16:27):
eight percent believe in Ukraine that he behaved properly. Sixteen
percent think that the actions of Zelensky and or diplomatic
service have harmed Ukraine. Right, so, Nikolaiva and the soldiers
are screaming and asking for help, that situation is failing
and that they cannot control it anymore. You just need
to send them the results of this spalling right instead

(16:47):
of them, because what else There's nothing to worry about. Listen,
there is another interesting moment here, and we did not
bring it up in our last stream, my fault, but
there was a publication a week ago that Zelenski met
with Democrats before meeting with Trump in the Oval Office,

(17:12):
who advised him to not sign a treaty on the
rare earth minerals with Trump, according to Chris Murphy, one
of the voices of the Democrats in DC. According to him,
Zelenski met with the Democrats before seeing President Trump and
JdE Evans. Do you think that information was already collaborated

(17:35):
by anybody. Is it a fact that he met with Democrats? No,
I do not know anything about that, Nikolay. But I
don't think it changes anything because the decision was made
by Zelenski. Right. Imagine I'm walking somewhere, then some people
approach me and tell me, alex say, you're going in
a wrong direction. Think about it. And then I'm contemplating

(17:58):
and thinking, Okay, well, if you you are telling me
I'm going in the wrong direction, I probably shouldn't and
I stop. Whose decision is that? Right? So he could
have said to these Democrats, go off, I'm going here
to sign what I came here to sign. But if
he actually listened, and if this event happened and he
listened to them, this was still his decision, not Democrats,

(18:20):
not yours, not mine. It was Zelenski's decision to sabotage
the negotiation with Trump. Right. I agree, Alexei. He is
fully responsible for the outcome. For many years, maybe decades,
we've been listening that a huge value in regards to

(18:43):
mutual relations of Ukraine and the United States is a
bipartisan support, and we need to make sure we maintain
this support by any means necessary. It appears that during
that meeting in the Oval Office, there was no this
value was not exercise exercised. Right the LANSCA exercised anything
except for this right in the Oval Office, Vilenski thought

(19:07):
about anything except for the bipartisan support. I think Ukrainian
delegation came there to throw a scandal and attendrum. And
even if it was not in their analytical part of mind,
it was somewhere there, maybe below the waste, and it
just sprung out that spring. And as for bipartisan support,

(19:28):
Ukraine was never really bipartisans supported. In the United States.
They've been on the Democrats did for about two decades already,
if not more. And remember Bush, the Republican president, was
suggesting Ukraine to not separate from Russia back in the day.
So yeah, our powers, our authorities were feeding off the

(19:52):
Democrat's hand. They were listening to their directives. They were
completely integrated with Democrats organizations and different channels in DC.
So even if Znansky met somebody in the White House
and somebody tapped him on his shoulder and managed to
change his opinion on his oncoming meeting, I would not

(20:13):
be surprised to that Znansky doesn't need technically to meet
with Democrats. They live on his head. They already made
a nice nest in his head and they have a
full one party's support in there. That's why he doesn't
need to meet with Democrats. He can get a text
message from them. It could be some Democratic leader in Washington,

(20:35):
d C. And you know, let's escalate this. He's sitting
bored out of his mind and he's thinking, well, let
me manage something like external politics of Ukraine. I know
Zelensky's coming to Washington. Let me send him a text
message to make sure that he doesn't agree with anything
on Trump. Because it's I'm bored. Let's do something right.
Let's send him a text message. And let's imagine he

(20:58):
sends him a text message telling Vladimir do you know?
And Zelansky looks at that and changes the whole position,
changes everything, and then also go to social media and
record another video how independent and free we are and
nobody can tell us what to do. That could have

(21:20):
been how it worked in Ukraine since nineteen ninety one,
since the collapse of USSR. Well, in the same pole, Alexei,
I want to say here that they talked to twelve
hundred citizens in Ukraine, and it was a phone interview.
So what else is important to mention? What is more
important for Ukraine strategically relations with European countries or with

(21:44):
the United States. Seventy eight percent think that with European
countries and only thirteen percent think that mostly with US
and fourteen percent think that both. So European countries seventy
percent support in Ukraine. Well, we are glaring at a

(22:05):
shining truth about the views of Ukrainian people. At least
two thousand of this what twenty eight hundred or however
many they interviewed, they are seven eight percent rate seventy
something percent. They think that maybe knowing or not knowing
that we actually do depend on the United States primarily,

(22:27):
they're still believing that we should be aligning with Europe.
And when you tell them that Europe last year purchased
it's worth more gas and oil from Russia than they
supplied money to Ukraine, these people are telling you that
you are running your discussion by Krumlin propaganda. You know
how you recognize a Ukrainian patriot. Patriot in Ukraine needs

(22:54):
to hate Trump, he needs to hate Aristovich, he needs
to sup the office of Zelenski, and of course he
needs to be pierced at Kremlin and China, and he
should be very supportive of position of Britain than not
supporting of Britain and aligning himself with Europe and not

(23:15):
aligning himself with Europe, and then again aligning himself with Europe,
and then Europe gives us some missiles and then apparently
when we run out of them and still have the
debt to pay, we need to start hitting Europe again.
I think our patriots are a hormonal roller coaster. They

(23:36):
look at the news and they don't know how to
react to that, and they can keep that opinion for
a while. They don't mind the roller coaster. They don't
mind following Zelenski on the ups and downs and all
the swings of the mood of the office. But the
main issue that they have with is causation, effects, the

(24:00):
reason and effect. This is where our patriot gets torn apart.
They just appear to be too toxic for him to
understand what leads to what, and this following, even if
it's not too real, it's very symbolic, I think, because
before answering to these questions, they probably were going through

(24:23):
this weird change, part of a roller coaster swing, because
they have two different ideas co inciding in their head.
First they scream how horrible Trump is because he behaved
somehow wrongly to Ukraine. Okay, but then they're so not

(24:45):
caring about the United States. And the next question, if
you don't care about the United States, then why do
you care about his stance? Right? Well, there is a
publication in a social media and Facebook. It made a
big splash that Europe has awoken with two big exclamation
signs behind it about the program to rearm Europe that

(25:09):
would allow Europe to invest eight hundred billion euros to
invest in its defense. Even Hungary and Slovakia signed it
with a special emphasis to that in twenty five, Ukraine
will get thirty billion euros, including twenty five from one
program and eighteen from the frozen Russian assets and the

(25:29):
proceeds on them in Europe. Norway's planning to double their
support of Ukraine in twenty five. They will donate over
seven billion euros instead of previously planned three. This is
the biggest military aid to Ukraine sent from Sweden. King
of Belgium again accepted Zelenski and you did comment on

(25:52):
five thousand air defense missiles. Minister of Defense of Canada
Bill Blair also mentioned that his country is ready to
send troops to Ukraine and are supposedly going to increase
their help, as well as Germany that supposedly is going
to provide more aid than the United States in twenty
twenty five, although Berlin is going through forming of a

(26:16):
new coalition based on the recent elections. So a lot
of words here in this article, in this news, but
what's real besides the Norwegian increase in eight While there
are other brave words that are being tossed around Nikolai.
A lot of military bloggers in Ukraine started writing that, guys,
why do you worry? We do have our military industrial

(26:37):
complex and our grudges will build such fantastic products there.
We have already built fantastic products there. We have such
amazing high tech devices that we cannot show you right now.
There're to secret that this whole war can be managed
from your Kievan apartment via some joystick, and Russia will

(27:00):
be defeated and Trump will crawl on his knees to
bloggers like Marsha Berlinsky in Ukraine and will apologize for
having concerns and not believing their words that Ukraine can
rebuild itself and can defend itself. But Marsia would be
standing there by the window and nobly looking in a
different direction, saying that Donald I cannot maintain our relations.

(27:24):
I do not like you anymore, and everything is over.
And then Donald goes on a knee, opens a special
box of true treasures and offering her additional money, additional
military support, and she again turns her face away and
says that look, we can build everything in our garages.

(27:45):
We don't need that, and we can substitute seventeen intelligences
of the United States with their satellite group. We don't
need you, We don't even need Europe. Really, you know, Nicola,
I don't understand why, with such heroic activities of Ukrainian
military industrial complex in our garages, we want some money.
I would even post a question further. I would say,

(28:08):
you are about to rebuild your military, but you're so
weak right now. Let us teach you how to rebuild
a military, and we can rebuild your military for you.
We have bottomless capabilities in our garages and will teach
you how to defend yourself. And we'll give you our
own missiles and other munitions that we produce here in Ukraine.
That's how you should be posting the question in this

(28:31):
regard if you do believe all that stuff that's floating there,
Because Ukraine then is supposedly so strong, so wonderful, and
so self fulfilling and self sufficient that it will teach
the whole world how to fight with puttin. This is
why I'm thinking what patriots are saying, they are only

(28:52):
half measures. Looking at that, I'm saying, well, you know,
then it appears that Ukraine can actually build a whole
new civilization in our garag although I know only two
historic examples when something was done in Grussia's first is
Israel of nineteen forty eight and second is Hamas of
twenty twenty five. And I am wondering, whom do we
look more like these days? Right guys, writed in the commentary,

(29:22):
whom do we look like? We'll read and elucidate ourselves
all right. On this week we also had Macron with
his message to a nation that Russia is a threat
to the whole continent, and he didn't mention that they
signed earlier agreements with Russia in twenty fourteen, which Russia violated,

(29:42):
and they cannot trust Russia to be honest and true
to its word. Again, it is also said that the
French are significantly concerned with the existing situation, that the
war is not weakening in the United States, is still
very tumultuous and is going to institute certain tariffs against you.

(30:04):
You decided to side with Ukraine from the beginning, and
they implemented sanctions against Russia, and it is in their
interest to make sure this war ends in the favor
of Ukraine. It looks like we are entering in the
new era of new relationships, international relationships, and suggests to
provide their nuclear umbrella for the rest of the Europe.
So if indeed this is what he is stating and

(30:27):
basically saying that you cannot trust Russia, we need nuclear
umbrella over European Union, and that Russia is a continuous
threat and that Russia is planning to mobilize three million
soldiers till twenty thirty, that implies that Europe, at least
in the view of Macron, needs to switch to military

(30:47):
rails and to show an example to the whole Europe
how to ramp up their military industrial complex, and who
is not doing that, then they probably are not Europe.
I don't know if they're siding with Russia or China.
Then why do you think this is not what happening
in Europe? In your view? There is a good French saying,

(31:09):
probably of the Times of the Three Musketeers. I'm not
a big connoisseur of French, but I'll try to voice it.
Bullshitting is easy, Okay, definitely he said something in French here,
all right, Nikolay. So before opening a nuclear umbrella over Europe,

(31:30):
one needs to ask whether Europe wants to have nuclear protection,
because he did not get the final answer from the
countries for one reason, because the moment you are protected
by nuclear umbrella, you become a legit target for another
nuclear nation to hit, because this is a nuclear protected

(31:51):
territory and now it's a llegit card to play or
to attack, perhaps in a preventative nuclear strike. That's why
many countries are hesitant about joining anything nuclear. We talked
about similar things here before, but I'll repeat myself again
in some earliest streams. If we are fighting a scary

(32:14):
putin who wants to mobilize three million people till by
twenty thirty. I'm not Macron, of course, I do not
speak French, for example, but I would do at least
I would stop purchasing oil and gas from our potential
enemy then, right, because for the money that Russia receives
from that is the money they used to build their

(32:36):
tanks and to mobilize their soldiers. Second, I would have
confiscated Russian assets and I would transfer to them to
Ukraine or to myself, and I would use the enemy's money.
This is the highest level of strategy. I would be
rebuilding my defense capability at the enemy's expense. But when Macron,

(32:57):
when asked immediately this press conference whether they will transfer
these moneys to Ukraine or use them themselves, he answers
that no, we cannot because investors will not really support
us that as the country, and instead of building our
proper military industrial complex, will probably show to battle with

(33:17):
like four tanks and thirty people. Right, Europe is different,
Europe is complex. I think there will be some pushback
on Mcron as well, both externally and internally in France.
And I'm switching into Ukrainian here. I think what we
are discovering here is that our main enemy with all

(33:40):
these hopes and fantasies is that we're fighting with reality.
So all our drones manufactured now a garage military industrial complex,
all the munitions that Europe has, they need to be
directed now at reality because all the trouble is coming
from reality. Because everything that we are voicing, everything that

(34:01):
we are hoping for in the voices of Macron and
the others, and of course Ukraine, it goes very often
against reality. Like all the statements we made would be
fantastic if they happen in the way we predicted or
the way we want to, but reality is against it.
So I still don't understand why we are not attacking reality.

(34:22):
Because it's important to define your true enemy. Right, we're
still fighting with Russia. Russia is just a servant of reality.
It's basically a proxy war with reality. So let's define
the real proxy war and launch nuclear attack on it.
Perhaps Advice President Macron to launch to wake up their

(34:45):
nuclear forces in France somewhere deep in the night and
send them a fiery message that at one in the morning,
one oh five in the morning, the whole nuclear trifecta
of France needs to attack reality. This is the only
way to defend Ukraine. This is the only way to
defend France. This is the only way to defend Europe.

(35:06):
And after that he probably needs to say something about
the Kingdom of Freedom, but that's probably after the strike,
because that damn reality, it's not listening. I suggest there
is another motion for Ukrainians also to take in disregard.

(35:27):
Reality needs to be dehumanized. We need to start drawing
caricatures at the reality. We need to recruit Shirly Abdo
to draw those caricatures. Special Forces of France. They can
help us with this. What else should we do there?
We need to curse the children of reality. We need

(35:49):
to be happy for deaths in reality, and we need
to be happy when our drones somehow hit the reality
and caused it seventeen percent damage. When we're told, perhaps
you can accept reality, we do not need to go
into these negotiations. We need first to meet reality in
an oval office and then create a scandal out of

(36:13):
it so that Reality would know that you cannot put
Ukraine on the knees. And then strategically we'll deceive it anyway.
In three days, we'll send it an apology letter or
write a tweet that we were a little too heat
it at the moment. And then we go to Elriad
to meet with reality. But even there everything is not
so simple. On the way to Ariad, we may get

(36:36):
another text message from Democrats and we probably will instigate
a new attack on reality. And nothing, I repeat, nothing
can enforce Ukrainians to bent our knees in front of reality.
What are you thinking about? Take away our sovereignty, the
right to choose, the right to stand till the end. Never.

(37:01):
So that's why me personally, when I find the right enemy,
my words never split with my deeds. Right now, I
following suit here and I suggest, well, let's announce the
war to reality, and I call upon all French and
all Ukrainians to join me in the holy war against

(37:22):
reality or multicultural war against reality. That's heavy sarcasm. Did
you see the cross following off from the lava from
the church complex in Kiev? This is actually quite symbolical.
We're entering in the new reality, and I guess some

(37:47):
people in Ukraine hope that our reality is going to
prevail over objective reality. So not a single person can
say that Ukraine gave up. And at least it may
be difficult for us, But it will never be shameful
for us, because now we're I think the main enemy reality,
and I suggest we cut all the cause and effect

(38:07):
relations here, just flank them and attack them on the flank,
same as Russians attacked our positions in Kursk. And then
that reality will have nowhere to run. It will be
in the cauldron. It will disintegrate, lose command and losing
that and wounded, will slither away and withdraw, and we

(38:29):
will probably catch up with it and enforce it to surrender,
and we'll sign some agreements with it. That reality will
promise to serve only us in our ideas. That's how
real men put the matter, and not that some Russia
were fighting with somebody there some reparations. We need to
fight with reality. Why do we fight with Russia? This

(38:50):
is weakness. A man is not the one who knows
how to fight, but the one who knows whose enemies.
Seems like our enemy is objective reality. Oh, Alexey. We
probably have been analyzing Europe and all the events happening
there for quite a while here, and it's strange to

(39:14):
me that so many people here are not paying attention
to the content of what Europeans are saying and what
they're doing in our regard whether we have very short
memory or we indeed want to present the ones for
reality and pacify ourselves with illusions. So what do you

(39:38):
think how long this will last? Where do you think
we will have the meeting with reality? What needs to
happen in order for their reevaluation to occur. Let's follow
the patterns, Nikolay hear, that's follow big patterns in the
individual collective subconscious. We're seeing the same scenario both on

(40:02):
the levels of big politics and on the level of
individual hot heads and patriots. I apologize, okay, Look, Zelenski
brought the country to its needs right now, it's a
very demolished country. People also bring themselves to demolition and

(40:23):
self destruction, trying to avoid acknowledging that their pathway is
leading to nowhere. It is the work of ago, the
work of fear of losing the invented identity which never
really existed to begin with, and irrational stubbornness is also
a national feature for Ukrainians, and it leads us into

(40:47):
a trap which we cannot evade without a threat of
loss and severe losses both material and physical and in
any respect, we're repeating the same mistake in solidar Mbachmud everywhere.
Mistakes are everywhere, Mistakes happen. You cannot fight such a

(41:08):
huge continental war without making mistakes, and mistakes do happen.
But even if the worst mistake is acknowledged, it stops
repeating itself. But the mistake that is being denounced has
all potential to become a catastrophe. Both Celensky and Skirsky
and the Patriots could have stopped way earlier, but their

(41:30):
ego does not allow them to. And now them and
does and everybody are consuming the consequences of not only
their mistakes, but also their stubbornness, their personal stubbornness, their politics.
The same principle, the same Ukrainian pattern, The same psychological

(41:54):
mechanisms work in the scale of the country and the
scale of individual heads. And now Ukrainians have and in Europe,
by the way, the same mechanisms work. And now we
can see that there is no independence from reality, regardless
of how hard you dry. And now a question here.

(42:15):
We are writing these streams every week, right, and I
have a big urge to perhaps stop doing it, because
it's impossible to save those who don't want to save themselves.
We can try to speed up their cognition, but it's
a futile war. These both processes need to reach their
critical point. We will continue writing recording these streams for

(42:40):
those people who think, who understand that mistakes are made,
who are trying to remedy them. They need to continue
observing and fixing the situation in accordance with the reality
how things work and which patterns work. And Ukrainians have
to learn one and actually see that on cognitom This

(43:02):
that we've done that in the sixteenth century, in the
seventeenth century, at the beginning of twentieth century, now in
twenty first century, and it leads us every single time
to the same result. Human stubbornness, it's very visible now,
is the force that doesn't like compromise. It either builds
when the goals are positive, or it destroys and Ukrainians

(43:27):
and mass can build apparently only in the garages, right,
those patriots that we're talking about now, why are we
fighting the continental warfare and playing big politics when your
technical and stubbornness level is at the garage level and
your understanding is also there. If you are going to

(43:48):
play big games. You need first to change the type
of thinking and start to look at things differently. When
our director of Monobank starts a fundraiser for nuclear arms,
when our congresswoman saying that we can substitute with our

(44:09):
own intel the work of seventeen intelligence agencies and satellite
networks of the United States, When they're saying that we
can hold and continue fighting this war because we can
assemble things in our garages. When mccron is saying that
they'll send hundreds of billions of euros to Ukraine which
they cannot even find for their own army. The person
is facing a choice whether he or she chooses to

(44:31):
believe that voluntarily or the person understands that he is
being fed existential lies at this moment. So if the
person wants to believe in it and continue down this path,
then what Nikolai? How the person is to bear the
responsibility right exactly? The person is to bear the heaviest

(44:54):
responsibilities from this war, not from the beginning of war,
not for the to start it that's on Puttin, but
for exacerbating and continuing this pain. This is actually very
Ukrainian thing to continue to resist until the end, to
avoid acknowledging that you are actually wrong anything. But I'm
not wrong. Now, we'll try to squeeze some logic out

(45:18):
of this, out of our statements. We'll try to explain
that this is a difficult term that we need to
go through to see something. At the end, this will
be the repetition of the same old story in Ukrainians,
and it costs lives of soldiers who are trying to
withdrawn out from Kursk at night by small groups, and

(45:41):
it costs dearly to everybody. And the most dear cost
will be paid by those who have these illusions. But
Ukrainians are very stubborn. We do have this moder rate.
We die, but we in this case do not acknowledge
our mistakes. Well, then you die. Everything is very simple.

(46:03):
Look like say, this all sounds very tragic on one hand,
On the other, I don't want to repeat myself saying
that we do have some hope for Europe, which we
continue mentioning in all examples of news my friends. Yeah, oh,
sorry for interrupting you. We see that publicly, there are

(46:28):
no actions that can tell us that Europe takes in
responsibility for Ukraine, and Ukraine can actually rely on Europe
in any format. What is responsibility for Ukraine in Kalai
Let's take one small aspect as an example, are deferense
systems covering Kiev and other cities of Ukraine. Russian Federation

(46:53):
is using ballistic weapons against US. European complexes that European
Army has that are manufactured by Europe without American components
because America, if there is a single part from America,
they can block the use of that weapon. European arms
cannot shut down ballistic missiles. It's only American patriot complexes

(47:16):
that can fight this whise economic and political figures in
Europe are saying that we do not need relations with US.
We need to concentrate in Europe. Well, dsirs, when ballistic
missiles will start falling on your schools, kindergartens, houses, remember
everything that you've been writing in those social media you're

(47:37):
the ones who begged for those ballistics to fall on
your heads. Okay, let's correct here. The decision to use
the ballistics is made by putting, but you did make
a decision that would make impossible for you to intercept
it and to shut it down because Americans apparently are
not an ally now and you want Europeans to do it.

(47:58):
Europe does not have aired systems capable of intercepting Russian
ballistic missiles. And this is just one small example. You
can rely on Europe as much as you like. Just
don't complain that you cannot intercept ballistic missiles. Oh right,
I forgot. You're fighting cause and effect relations here. Why
am I appealing to you? I just know which is

(48:18):
a trader? Right? He is such a trader. He declared
a word to reality, and now he's talking about not
looking at reality. Well, that's our analysts in brief, that's
whom we're working with. CNN is saying that the stash
of Patriot missiles may run out in several weeks after
the United States stopped supporting Ukraine militarily, Ukraine may run

(48:42):
out of Patriot missiles. So I understand that it probably
doesn't make sense to ask you whether it's true or not.
But let's assume that this is so. So several weeks, right,
Let's say it's four or five weeks, not as two
or three weeks. Let's everybody feel at least a month
of safety. Five weeks. This is still a very short timeframe.

(49:09):
So how do we calculate AREAD and some agreements that
are happening there. Perhaps they will go successfully and things
will be signed, but we also have unannounced publicly position.
Apparently it exists, though build is publishing a hint at
Trump probably not returning military aid even after signing an

(49:32):
agreement in AREAD ive, Zelenski does not go into resignation mode.
There are different reasons named there, but let's acknowledge that
after the fight in the Oval Office, they probably will
be no friendship there. It's difficult to return trust in
this circumstance. In your logic, these five two whatever weeks,

(49:54):
how will it go during this timeframe? I think riethnical
like they will be talking about cessation of long range
arms across the border between Russia and Ukraine, and they'll
try to just keep the word the conventional short range

(50:15):
arms on the front. They'll probably try to limit the
use of UAVs and missiles because we understand how limited
our air different systems are. We cannot hold Russian aerial attacks.
I don't know what we need to exchange that with Russia.
But given the Trump is pushing on both Russia and

(50:37):
Ukraine and does want to strike truths and NaNs can
put in do not want to strike the truth. Then
Trump will have to solve this three body problem while
the two bodies are running in different trajectories. It's a
complex task, but let's see how he succeeds in doing it.

(50:58):
And they'll be discussed. Seeing from what I understand the
American taxi drivers that they will be discussing long range
weapons in area and just keeping the war on the
front line. If they fail to agree on that, and
Russia will continue hitting the depth of Ukraine with their
ballistics and UAVs, we will not have means to shut
it down. What's the reason for Russia Alexei to go

(51:22):
for this agreement when using ballistic missiles? Is actually there
a strong side to limit the use of Ukraine's drones
on their targets? Well, Nikolay, they will likely exchange that
for some political result. I remind our viewers that war
is an extension of politics by other means, and the
goals of this war are political. If the goals of

(51:44):
this war are to be achieved without use of armed forces,
then you don't need that right. You perhaps can save
all these ballistics for the future war. I don't know
with Macron or to restart the war with Ukraine at
some point, so why not to seize it for some
period if we're talking truth. At the moment, they can.

(52:06):
I think at least it is in the agenda. Whether
it will be realized, we don't know. But after stoppage
of American aid to Ukraine, our capability is to even
shoot down shahid UAVs are very limited because intelligence for
our air defense systems is not transferred anymore. And look
how Trump is weaving this story. The moment we actually

(52:28):
start to work, the moment we go to Ariad, we
present our writtenness for negotiations and we're saying that we're
going to negotiate, he starts to send signals with more optimism,
saying that, well, okay, we can restart our intelligence support
and maybe we can restart aid. The moment we start
being stubborn again, new messages surface up that perhaps know

(52:48):
it's impossible maybe to restore that service at the moment,
and you can follow American signs to understand the behavior
of our leadership in Ukraine. The moment we are being
done is when and uncooperative at stubborn is when you
see pessimistic notes coming from US government, and the moment

(53:08):
we are cooperative is when we see the optimistic notes.
What people and independent observers cannot grasp here. Another matter
is why do we not ask of Britain, why do

(53:30):
they not support U grain in the same format. They
were also co signers and Minsk cords, And they are
not letting us use towers, missiles and storm shadows and
certain targets. And Zansky is taking pictures with King of
Britain and still friendly with them. And when we really
really needed those storm shadows to realize our operative tasks

(53:52):
on Russian warehouses and airfields during repelling of hyk of operation,
the birds never gave us those missiles what we actually
could have destroyed those planes. These glorious brids that supposedly
support US never gave us these weapons. So Trump is
in the office to review the agenda of Democrats all

(54:12):
together summarily. He's changing the course of the whole country.
Why does he need to fulfill the agreements that are
not in his interest? And Ukrainian businessmen who are complaining
about the reality to me, they're telling that they're being
ransacked by government. The enforcement agencies are taking the last

(54:34):
money from the companies, and after that they write in
the social media praise to Zelenski, and they attack restoration
public while still appealing to me in private, and they
praise Zlanski for not bending, not giving up. This regime
is attacking you, dear businessman, it's bending you over, and

(54:57):
you still support it public clear, and the only desire
of Trump is to stop this war in regards to
Ukraine and give Ukraine a chance to rise. Trump doesn't
understand perhaps the position of Puttin completely, and I think

(55:19):
we are also missing some of it. And I understand
that Putin may be trying to deceive Trump, to bind
us with some Minsk three, disarm us, and qualitatively prepare
the ground for the next round of this war. So
what okay in this story? If Putin is so horrible
when I acknowledge that he might be, what will Trump

(55:42):
do when he understands that Putin deceived him? He'll probably
retaliate in some fashion, right Alexey, Well, knowing Trump Nikolai,
he will be doing a lot of things that no
other American president has done ever. And right now we
don't need to call him names and to withdraw our

(56:07):
twelve percent of his support in our society down to eight,
but actually support him and make sure that he is
on our side. When Putting deceives us again, we instead
are trying to quarrel with him. So when the time
comes that Putting acts, we may have to face Trump
who says, you know what, you've been so stubborn and horrible,

(56:29):
and how you treated me when I really wanted to
help you. I don't think I want to help you out.
That's why I think we still have to attack dirty
reality with the dirty nuke or something. Otherwise we will
not succeed because I think brain is at premium in

(56:51):
this country until somebody brings them artificially from outside. According
to literary authors, our land is plentiful and trees are
growing and crops are growing. We just don't have order
in it. Come and rule it. You know what, Nikolay,

(57:12):
I never thought that I will be since I'm a
fan of psychology, right, I never thought I'll have a
chance to observe how tens of millions people will be
losing their mind live on air. A lot of well
known people are just crumbling in front of our eyes,
but they continue to be stubborn in what destroys them,

(57:40):
as in that anecdotic about the hedgehogs crying, getting hurt
and by pins, but continue to hump the cactus, all right, alexiy.
In the logic of this potential reformatting and change of

(58:00):
power in Ukraine, Timashenka did seem to receive the ball
that was seemingly given to her via the publication in Politico.
The way I'm reading these signals when Timashenka appealed to
Rada Ukraine Congress, when she criticized the opinion that the

(58:23):
war needs to continue for another five years, I think
she is receiving the ball here. Do you think the
coalition under these initiatives and decisions by Timoshenka, do you
think she has support in the Congress or that coalition
is still being formed or it will never be formed. Well,

(58:44):
it's not so easy to form such a coalition, Nikolai.
You need to lobby the congressmen and rantsom pay the money.
But okay, if they have resource, they could perhaps they
get a coalition. They really like the speaker and Zaranski
probably will not be sitting and waiting there. He'll probably

(59:05):
be acting while things are happening. And since this coalition
is still targeting his removal, whether voluntary or involuntary. If
he steps away, situation changes drastically, then everything becomes much
easier and more straighter. The problem is not in readiness
of Timashenko. The problem is in Zansky holding onto his throne,

(59:28):
and nobody knows, even Trump, how to peel him off
this throne. And how much of support percent does Zansky have.
I don't know, but probably high looking at the madness
and social media, because people are winking at each other

(59:49):
but still supporting Zelensky. He's holding the throne even more
after that support and wants to leave even less. The
story has another remarkable element into it. VLADIMIRV now reacted
to an opinion, the real opinion of Europeans that she
knew she understood because McCrone is saying what is favorable

(01:00:12):
for him as a politician, and the head of military
intelligence in Germany is saying what is understood by him
and his ministry. He is not sugarcoating it, and the
Ministry of Defense of Germany recently said, well, sure, let
Ukraine fight Russia till twenty thirty. It's their thing. That's

(01:00:33):
the real attitude of europe to this war. They get
benefits from our refugees, white Christians coming to their countries,
well educated, good citizens, and meantime they can give us
a little bit here and there, some arms, some money,
some missiles that maybe can should uav down but for

(01:00:55):
our money and as a credit. And their speeches are
so beautiful on the level of presidents. But then the
head of their military intel in Germany came out and
just blatantly laid it out what they really think, so
that Ukraine would fight till twenty thirty, suffer another two

(01:01:15):
million dead and have lost having lost everything till the
on the left bank of the river. And for them
it's an advantage. You know what else I wanted to
remark here in the stream, the Russians are behaving as
if they already won. This is laughable. By the way,

(01:01:38):
the only group that is funnier than Ukrainians is Russians
who already think that Russia has won. And this war
we talked about that, and I want to reiterate once
again that with all our deficiencies, with all our systems,
dumbities and dislike of reality, if we prove fail the

(01:02:00):
effectiveness of our if we lift up the effectiveness of
our governmental management by fifteen percent, Russian offense will stall.
This is the difference of efficiency. Their efficiency is rather low,
and then we can negotiate on very different terms in
the next agreement. The problem with all that, and the

(01:02:22):
key to all that is z Leanski. He's destroying everything
that he touches. Zelensky is extremely ineffective. And if you
still believe in Zelansky as effective leader, go talk to
soldiers who maybe will be likely to get out of
course district to life. If you still believe in Zelenski's efficacy,

(01:02:42):
look at the hundred billion out of what two hundred
and fifty billion order for a Ministry of Defense that
we already paid. Ministry of Defense has funded but the
industrial complex did not deliver for a hundred of that
is it corruption or issues with production? Over a third

(01:03:04):
of voters paid for by Minister of Defense out of
your money that you managed to somehow pay to the
budget during the war was not delivered. In twenty four
two Minister of Defense services paid for but never rendered.
If you think that around such a leader we need

(01:03:25):
to unite instead of asking him to leave, I don't
know how to help you. If you like that I
don't know how I can help you with this if
you think that this is the way it should be,
I don't think anybody can help you until as long
as he is in power and as long as you
support him. End of the first hour

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