War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1180: Zelensky Stood Up Trump and Putin, Again? Arestovych, Shelest

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hello everybody. You have friends and subscribers of my channel
with the lex Aristovigi's channel. This is a live stream
we're doing now, a pretty important one and I think
it'll be rather rich with content today because it seems
like the eyes had started to move. Trump and put
In finally had a conversation. Both commented on the results

(00:28):
of the stock and we need to try to counter
impose it over the current reality. Hello Alexi, Hello Alex. Yes,
we do appreciate you having with us here, and of
course we appreciate our viewers who understood how to avoid

(00:50):
the blogging issues that arise before them, both in Russia
and in Ukraine. And it is rather simple with our
today's stream. You can see two QR codes at the bottom.
These are the ones that allow you to jump into
our chat. Donate small money to support that super chat,

(01:15):
and then we can ask this question. And we usually
collect these questions sometime in advance before the stream happens,
and we also can work with some of the live
questions you post in the chat, but those are usually
answered towards the end of the show. And before we start,
I suggest we traditionally answer a question and we are

(01:41):
going to ask this question of all of our viewers today.
A diplomat lan Zerkales outlined the red lines, not the
territories themselves, but apparently for Ukraine the red lines are army,
speech and faith. So if you were Ukraine, which of

(02:01):
these red lines would you for fate first? Army, language,
faith or territories? Alex say, let's start with this question.
We can talk about Buchin later, but this is a
more principal story. What can Ukraine do you think sacrifice first, Alexandra,
I think this is a false way to ask this question,

(02:24):
because the Ukraine we currently have is not capable to
negotiate with Pujin. It is not capable of negotiating with
anyone to conclude a peace treaty and a ceasefire agreement
that can be done by some other Ukraine, a more
sober Ukraine, a smarter Ukraine that would understand that it

(02:47):
would have to pay for thirty four years of flushing
itself down the toilet. And this is the price for
riding this bus. And of course there is a price
for entry, the price for ride, and the price for exit.
In this case, the main topic here is national identity.
I think that is often tied together with the language,

(03:11):
and this is a silly approach and the smart approach
here is about the number of our armed forces. This
is probably the most discussed topic in adverse simble negotiations
and today as well, because if Ukraine preserves its previous
character the way it is now, of course Russia will

(03:33):
be insisting on complete demilitarization, which probably ended up being
one hundred thousand people and a thousand thanks. That's about nothing.
You cannot even defend one district with that, or Kiv district.
Funny if you have toy airplanes and stuff like this.
But if Ukraine principally changes its character, then a different

(03:54):
number of armed forces and different architecture of security becomes
rather possible. The numbers of armed forces of Ukraine is
a small but very important piece of a puzzle in
a bigger architecture of security for the country. All these
other red lines and other things that you started the
show with, they are much more secondary, tertiary and way

(04:18):
after this first matter, because in certain architecture of security,
Ukrainian army can be two and a half million. The
question would be why do you need such a number
serve of people serving your army? If you have not
solved primary issues. For example, if Ukraine remains a hostile

(04:41):
country towards Russia, Russia will keep insisting that Ukraine's army
is to be much smaller, and they will continue attacking
Ukraine until ukraine economy will not be able to sustain
more than one hundred thousand troops or even fifty. Now,
if Ukraine becomes a truly neutral country, it needs to

(05:01):
be protected not only from Russia but from other global
players as well. But you get more freedom, you can
operate with other points. You can, for example, suggest that look,
with the current Russia and our neutrality, perhaps one hundred
thousand troops is fine, But who can guarantee us that
if your regime changes, we do not need more. What

(05:26):
if a new person has a different idea. What if
Hungary decides to take a piece of it from Zakarpati region,
which has some historic roots with the Hungary and we
only have one hundred thousand and maybe one hundred tanks.
This is the beginning of a serious conversation. Right, let's

(05:47):
exchange our prisoners of war. Let's look at the numbers.
These are all kindergarten conversations. Serious conversation should start with
a different approach. Friends, our vision for the next twenty
years of development of this region and part of the
world is this. The other side responds to that in kind,

(06:11):
explaining how do they see that picture and that future.
And that's where you start. And if you can find
a vision with which both sides agree, for example, key
positions with neutrality and system of trade relations between Russia
and Ukraine, then everything else, the number of military the

(06:31):
exchange of prisoners of war and many other things they
become secondary to this first step, to that grand arc
that you decide first, because in certain circumstances, Russia would
treat Ukraine as a brotherly nation and would be even
defending certain interests of Ukraine, while in the other configuration,

(06:51):
Russia would consider Ukraine hostile and would be more likely
to continue offensive and attack it again when time and
opportunity presents itself. That's why what it is being discussed
as the result of the previous thirty four years without
looking into the next thirty four years, is not a
serious conversation. And today when Britain came out to comment

(07:14):
his conversation with Trump, the key formula was to remove
the reasons for this war all Ukraine was positioning itself
as anti Russia. Some local heathens who are getting trinkets
from Western supporters in order to fight the fight with

(07:37):
Russia are not appealing to Russian Federation. So the best
guarantee for our security in Ukraine is to change some
elements of our character, of a character, I imply the
character of the country, not the nation. Look at our
neighbor Poland. They have a mono nation, mono faith, and

(08:01):
it's a little different. But this is an exception from
the other countries in Europe. Sixteen countries in Europe have
at least two languages. There are very few monoethnic nations there,
like Hungary and Poland. Most of the countries in Europe
are mixed. And if we're not talking about countries like
India where they have several hundred languages and they still

(08:23):
manage to survive somehow, or Pakistan that is fighting with India,
where they have several hundred thousand different ethnicities and they
have nuclear arms and economy and everything and they managed
to coexist. So nobody is placing a serious question about

(08:44):
the future arc of existence and relations between Russia and Ukraine.
And without that, I think all the negotiations are futile.
What does the diplomat their kite says, who suggests army
speech and faith that formula? She insists that we need
to defend the parameters of the old Ukraine or current Ukraine.

(09:06):
That implies that any peace treaty will be very short lived. Okay,
Prussian ken Zielinsky might have been bad administrators. But then
there'll be a better administrator who will make this project
work better, and then we'll see who can outcompete with Russia.
I think this is a very infantile approach. And I
was looking at Arona zir Khan and trying to understand

(09:28):
her position and her approach. I was paying some attention
to her statement. But after today's statement that she made,
I don't think she's worthy of attention. That statement basically
annulled all of my interests to her as a political figure.
Perhaps all right, Alex, say we have done another question,

(09:49):
more philosophic or biblical, maybe about the old wine and
new wine bags or old wine bags and new line.
Today we have Trump callings landscape. As a journalist from
Access wrote, this was a humiliation. They barely talked for

(10:10):
two minutes, and then he called Putin and they talked
for two hours, two minutes versus two hours. After that,
Putin came out personally with a statement to press. It
was a rather brief statement, but we heard some new forms,
new words in it. We heard a memorandum. Apparently the

(10:33):
parties need to create include all the major topics for
future peace agreements. And with this memo, both parties need
to start moving towards peace and ultimately that would lead
to a ceasefire. And Trump wrote a longer post about

(10:57):
the conversation he had, how good it went. He called everybody,
and he called other people in Europe as well, and
basically summarized that we are starting this process. Why am
I bringing wine and wine bags here? Because Zelensky with

(11:17):
regime that he has built in Ukraine in my view,
or let me ask you, do you think he can
change in air and turn into some peacemaker that is
needed for creation of such a roadmap and signing that
memorandum and future peace treaty or all this is just

(11:38):
another game. Look, we're now in a very interesting situation
here in livestream. Britain came out with our other positive statement,
very sharp signals that I am ready these other steps.
Trump came out with a statement that wherever Trump is,
there is the victory. Zelensky did not come out with anything.

(12:02):
What can he say? I don't know. He probably does
not want to talk about comparison between two minutes and
two hours. But I can almost guarantee that whenever he
comes out, he'll probably come out with something disruptive to
Putins and Trump statements. He will likely bring up CRIMEA
again or something else. This is most probable. If this

(12:25):
time he will behave likely they'll be an attempt to
go down the drain a little later, and Leansky will
likely disrupt it again. If he manages to stay in
the course and continue on a peace track, that means
that Trump somehow found a key to him and has
enough cards to persuade him to be peaceful. But signing

(12:49):
a peace treaty with Vilenskim situation where he takes not
state responsibility but historic responsibility to allow Russia to keep
some territories at least on the current frontline, perhaps not
completely illegally, but in some fashions, so Russia would at

(13:12):
least hold it for now. This would be a political suicide,
or at least how Zelensky says that it would be
a political suicide. And in your streams, very often you
are asking what the Ukraine has a politician who is
eager and who can do that. There is one one
right here in the studio. The rest most likely won't.
And only in case of Zelensky, I think only in

(13:34):
case of very serious personal guarantees he would be able
to sign, to agree to do that. Then there'll be
more dances with the drums in our state Congress, and
they will be of course very agitated with never forget,
never allow them, and we somehow would need to pacify

(13:55):
them in order to sign it. And that's a very
remote perspective. Even if it's Lensky behaves, we still don't
know how the Parliament will vote. Perhaps they will vote
properly the way they signed the American deal, and they
will sign ultimately that some truce and ceasefire. But after

(14:15):
that Ukraine will go into the track of elections. Americans
are quite about the Selexi, right, yes they are. So.
We are facing a situation where there is no war,
but there are no reelections for a few months, for
half a year, for a year, and that son of

(14:36):
a bitch is our son of a bitch. So he
still stays in power, and Russia insists on signing the
Final Peace Accord at some point. Whether Ukraine will be
ready to sign that because there'll be some legal obligations,
I don't know yet. Remember Trump was talking that they'll

(14:58):
be a fund where different countries will contribute, and that
fund will be used to rebuild Ukraine. Trump is not
deviating from that goal. He is still standing there. He
perhaps is exaggerating Russian positions a bit and put in
speech there is nothing about economy. The simple things he's
addressing is elimination of the reasons for this war. So

(15:22):
just looking on these two statements and lack of landscass,
you can see that all three sides are holding very
different positions in regards to what's happening in Ukraine. And
that's what I'm saying. You need to coordinate, not details,
but the ballpark picture of the worldview. How will this

(15:45):
part of Europe function? If you solve that in large
for the next thirty years, you can solve all the
minor details underneath it. But today, even that funnel to
get Ukraine to, for example, conduct elections, there's too many
ifs that need to happen in order for Ukraine to

(16:05):
even have elections. If Trump, if Putin, if the ceasefire
if approved. I can not guarantee that this will not happen.
Of course, perhaps there'll be some ceasfire, some partial ceasfire,
and they likely will start gravitating towards some solution to it.
But what will happen after a ceasfire? What will happen

(16:27):
to Ukraine after a ceasfire? The key question would be
whether Ukraine will change its model, because the model is
the thing that dictates the future, and old Ukraine just
does not field feet in that new mold. And unfortunately
Ukraine is not even considering the new mold and new
ones outside of the old ones of give us everything back.

(16:49):
And Kerensky did mention again that Ukraine is not off
the track joining NATO, so he's again propping up one
of the issues that Putin has with Ukraine politics. And
that's why I cannot take today's conversation between Trump, Putin
and Trump and Zelensky as a big successful step. It

(17:11):
is one of many steps, and this is one of
the probably earlier steps towards the ceasefire. And even if
ceasefire happens, it doesn't mean that the work cannot rekindle again.
And our government, our state project, unfortunately does not have future.

(17:31):
Ukraine is a big country, so quickly it won't happen.
But in five to seven years Ukraine will cease to
exist if they continue doing with the same picture, with
the same narrow project for the country. Alexei, you're giving
a lot, quite a lot of time for Ukraine. Yeah,
I'm generous today. Generally Ukraine will have much less time.
I think there is no force capable of restoring Ukraine.

(17:54):
Trump is not such a force. Europe is not such
a force. Ukraine is the only force that can rebuild itself.
All right, here are some more details. It was kind
of funny. I think there is something to be ironic about,
alex say. When Puttin came out, made his statement, gave

(18:15):
his estimation to the talk he had with Trump, talked
about memorandums and agreements, and then he said that Piskov
and Ushakov will come out and explain to you what
it is about. But on Chakov was the only one
who delighted me, who said that the conversation lasted for

(18:38):
over two hours and it started with Puttin wishing well
to the eleventh grandson of Trump, who was just born
and was very productive conversation and they talked about different subjects,
not only Ukraine, and as other public sources site on
Chakhov saying that Trump mentioned that president which can call

(19:01):
him anytime, just dial his number, presenting it as their
good old friends. And he also said that presidents took
some time to figure out who is putting the phone
down first, you first, No, you go first? No. Yeah.

(19:22):
This is a funny representation of this conversation by certain powers,
and these details of this conversation lead us to a
very different reality. I would say, Alexey, Europe is telling us,
let's do a truce or we will implement some other
horrible sanctions that we somehow have not implemented yet, while

(19:44):
Trump is talking about some powerful economic cooperation in the future.
And I have a question, after listening to all that, Zoo,
do you think they can just start removing sanctions from
Russia without the war in Ukraine coming to a stoppage.
Do you think you can do that, Alexander, Let's start
from a simple fact two and the change minutes of

(20:07):
conversation with Zelenski and two plus hours of conversation with Putchin.
Were there any compliments to Zelenski from Trump after this? No? Nothing.
He just mentioned about Ukraine. You have apparently very good
relations and they're figuring out who puts the phone first.
Even that style that has a certain background behind it,

(20:29):
from the psychological atmosphere behind it, it reveals that Putchin
is much more understandable for Trump, and the sum of
their mutual interests and things they can agree upon is
significantly larger than Trump can find with Zelenski. At its core,

(20:52):
we're seeing the issue that Ukraine is preventing Trump and
Putin from going in to any economic unity or joint venture.
How long do you think that situation can continue? Jade
Evan's commenting on this conversation before it happened, saying that yes,

(21:16):
we are tired with the position of Russia and Ukraine,
but Russia is already changing its position, and second, if
everything fails, we can even abandon these negotiations. What does
it mean, Alexei, Well, it means that Zelenski got a
message in these two minutes that this is your last chance.
You either come to agreement or you will be facing

(21:39):
put In alone with maybe your European backers, but that's it.
But turning this conflict into something reminiscent of South Vietnam
is basically on the shelf already. I would remind once
again triangle bidging Moscow and Washington is a very important triangle,
but one hundred and fifty times more important the other

(22:05):
triangle where Ukraine is a toxic asset for the United States,
it's an overseas toxic, stealing, incongruous, and incapable of negotiating acid.
Russia for the United States is one of the key

(22:27):
solutions to new positioning of the United States, whether it
will be a global positioning or will America just dwindle
itself to its own hemisphere. Russia, by the way, historically
saved the United States twice in a Civil War and
during the War for Independence, and twice the United States

(22:48):
saved Russia during hunger times than World War Two. They've
been allies for a long time. They've also fought in
a Cold War for a long time, which implies that
they've been working pretty close with each other being competitors.
So what to do with Russia. Americans quite understand what

(23:09):
to do with Ukraine. It is very Murky. Nobody gets it. Now,
how does this trangle look for Putin? The United States?
For Russia is a key partner through which most problems
of Russia can be solved. Geopolitical problems can be sold.
Ukraine from Russia's point of view, And again I'm saying

(23:29):
Russian and Putin's point of view, is a dangerous fascist
regime that presents a threat to national security of Russia. Moreover,
second layer for Russia, Ukraine is a holy wound. Russia
will never abandon Ukraine completely one way or the other,
because they have the same history, they both start, both

(23:51):
countries start from the same origin, and whether you like
it or not, Russians are ready to kill and die
for these views and there once now what will prevail
in this situation a toxic acid or the holy wound
for which you're ready to start a third World war?

(24:14):
What Ukrainians are missing? And I keep trying to explain
it to them. The only country in the world that
is already to fight for Ukraine right now and later
all the way to the nuclear war is Russian Federation
or Russia. Maybe Belarus also can engage. Nobody never ever

(24:37):
will be fighting for us. And I mean defending our
security or fighting against us to prevent us from being
a threat. Now another question, do you think the United
States will indulge a nuclear war for a toxic acid?

(24:58):
What about Europe? Do you think that Macron but he
has kisses and their democracy in EU, do you think
any of them will come to fight for Ukraine. Never.
By the way, the next day after European leaders visiting Kiev,
EU came out with a statement that they will be
increasing tariffs on the goods to Ukraine. And this is

(25:24):
because of the protest of Poland. This is the real
help Ukraine right during the war. So that's what we're
dealing with. The only real guarantees that can be given
to Ukraine can be given by Russia. And these guarantees
need to be tied to the project of Ukraine. If
the current project remains the trifecta of army, language and faith,

(25:47):
Russian Raishnik ballistic missiles will continue flying at it, however
much you will be trying to defend it. If we
manage to change our project, then we can actually create
not just neutral coexistence, but mutually beneficial coexistence. Because old
Soviet chains both in engineering, in agriculture, in military sphere

(26:13):
are easy to revive and you can continue going around
and strike agreements with the Russia for some support and
mutual trade, and of course with other countries because Ukraine
now has a unique experience that it can offer, so
you can do things. You can change your future. But
on the basis of changing our project. If we don't

(26:36):
do that, that'll be a big mistake. Whenever you negotiate
something difficult points specifically, talk in models, talk in bigger pictures.
One project of Ukraine is animals to Russia. Another is
in neutral Ukraine. The third Ukraine is a country that
can look into joint ventures and mutual benefits. And don't

(26:59):
tell me that you'll never agree and never be friends again.
There are methods when armies can become friends in half
a year, or be peaceful neighbors in half a year
and start cooperating within a year. If back in nineteen
forty four somebody would tell you that, let's say Brits

(27:19):
and Germans will be friends, how many people will believe
that right? Or Americans and Germans, or Soviets and Germans.
People at the time would not be believing it. But
look at where we are now. Well you're talking about
a different Ukraine, Alexey. We have a different Ukraine now
we have the way it is. Well, it doesn't matter

(27:40):
what Ukraine we have now and how many times Lanski
talked with Trump or putting the current model is a
grave model. It will be finished, it will be off,
It will be destroyed by destroying its economy, army, peaceful citizens.
How many more victims do you need one hundred two

(28:02):
hundred thousand? You think Russia cares about it, but the
project needs to be changed, and we either lead this
process voluntarily or it will be done for us from Russia.
Do we need so? My question is do we need
several more one hundred thousand dead Ukrainians, destroyed economy, destroyed
energy systems, or do we voluntarily change our system? Looking

(28:23):
at the current situation, imagine there is no Russia. Imagine
there is a big ocean there instead of Russia, and
Ukraine would still need a change of project meaning in
this case, because it is necessary not only for peace
with Russia but for Ukraine itself, because our current project
is killing it. Our current vector had shrunk our population

(28:46):
by anywhere from a third to a half. Our engineering
industry is gone, our airspace is almost nonexistent. When sixty
five percent of youth, even before this war, we're saying
our our best dream is to leave Ukraine. It was
not Russia to blame. They were not shooting up our
cities at that time. This was anti project that was

(29:07):
pushing Ukrainians outside of Ukraine, that was making them ashamed
of their country, and we needed to change that. And
now we have Russia pushing us in the same direction
that we need to change this project. So if we
want some security, this is a good story to change
this project voluntarily. All politicians, however sympathetic and nice looking

(29:31):
they can be, and the zerkalo is and a very
nice looking lady, the moment they start talking about army,
language and faith, they stop being of interest to me
because they are then guiding again our country to its death.
And in this case, everything we're doing, we're fighting. All
this wars with Russia will be done with with our

(29:53):
utter defeat. When people are saying that Ukraine is fighting
for Ukraine, this is not true. When people are saying
Craine is fighting for Ukrainian people, this is also not true.
Ukraine since the time of the first disrupted Stambul negotiations
since about April of twenty two is fighting for saving
the previous project and its main Beneficiarysi Lanscan has five

(30:16):
or six effective managers in quotes and power managers, power
brokers and other nationalists and criminality in the country. Today,
Ukraine is dying for the sole project. Nothing is threatening
Ukraine itself. The threat is going to the old Ukrainian project. Russians,
if they were smarter, they would have separated Ukrainian people

(30:37):
and Ukrainian culture from the Ukrainian project, and they could
have said, we're fighting not against Ukraine, not against Ukrainian people.
We're fighting against the project which has three percent of
your population among its beneficiars, and the rest ninety seven
percent are paying for the goodies that these three percent
are getting. And if they used some tool to pry

(31:00):
these three percent of the body of the country, it
would be much clearer for Ukrainians. However, our opponents are
not smart enough. They're trying to put in the article
from July sixteenth, twenty twenty one, and there he even
regrets about Vlyuvski orders and Russian influence on the history

(31:20):
on Ukraine and culture and Ukrainian literature. That it is
a big mistake. He admits that was a good beginning.
Their propaganda, however, brought them in a very wrong direction
for a long time. The best thing they could do
now is reopen Ukrainian libraries, open Ukrainian schools, allow some
cultural events, conduct some cultural events in Russia, open faculties

(31:46):
of Ukrainian language in their leading universities, and separate and say, okay,
Ukraine and Ukrainian is great, the Ukrainian insurgency army is
bad and the Nansky regime is bad on the other
and they are not tasked with solving it fast. Current
model is generally acceptable to them. They get their central

(32:09):
power consolidation as the result of this war, so overall
they kind of enjoying this disposition, but in its core,
they could have been more effective. And Ukrainians tried to
believe that Russia Russians are fighting with Ukraine. They're not
fighting with Ukraine. They're fighting with the current project, with
a narrow project. Alex say. There are a lot of

(32:31):
events during this weekends of prisoners of war were giving
interviews and were very derogatory about those who refused to
go to fight to the front and government came with
more statements about those who fight to those who don't fight,

(32:54):
whom they should take some property from and rights from.
But there are some pretty bad symptoms overall. Battalion commander
of forty seventh Brigade accused its general command in being
dumb in burning people senselessly on the front, and wrote

(33:16):
his own letter of resignation. And there were a couple
of loud news coming from some other parts of the front,
and there were some people removed as well in the
high level of command. But one battalion commander resigns with
such a formula. You cannot just write it off to
some stress syndrome. I think this looks like a deeper

(33:39):
issue in the Ukrainian Army. Well, listen, Alexander. On my courses,
I teach. The first module that starts it all is
the art of thinking. Yeah, by the way, friends, that
cure code on the Alexis side of the screen. That's
a link to his appear on school. Right, thank you, Alexander.
We have another module start on the twenty eighth, and

(34:02):
the first module is learning how to think, how not
to get influenced by propaganda by all these towers if
you will of influence, and I give a very simple formula.
Everything that will be already is every future, even remote

(34:23):
already has a bunch of micro signals in present, so
one just needs to learn how to see them. And
now we have interesting signals coming. This is a well
known battalion commander that's resigning. His nickname was Genius. He
was reading Timothy Snyder book in one of the pictures
right sitting in the trench. Very intellectual, very smart. And

(34:47):
we also have another one about three hundred UAVs hitting
US overnight. A bunch of statements on our specialists in
UAVs saying that Russians are taking over the advantage lead
in the UAV warfare. They're not going into detailed descriptions,

(35:09):
but generally acknowledging that Russia has already caught up and
is starting to go ahead. So these are small cracks
in the fundom in the base. In the basis of
this narrow project, some people think that many things may
still happen. They may be Aliens coming and helping Ukraine
to win this war. Right, No, it won't. This is
the phase preceding a big crash next phase. I already

(35:32):
wrote a post today, but I can read. A summary
from this next phase may look like this, growing military
defeat on the front on different parts of the front,
Russia breaking through on one part and five kilometers wide
ten deep. The other main reason will be the loss

(35:53):
of technological advantage and management advantage on the front, organizational advantage.
We already are seeing both. We are seeing battalion commanders resigning.
We are seeing their UAVs catching up and taking over
expedited destruction of our supply lines with Russian remote means

(36:15):
and missiles. Russia will be launching. They'll come a day
when they'll launch a thousand UAVs at our territory overnight,
not tomorrow, not in a month, not in half a year,
but in a year. That's a very realistic scenario. A
couple of nights like that, and it's very improvable to
shoot down a thousand of those, even if the whole

(36:37):
army will be chasing them, so they will find their targets.
A slow demoralization of army and population will be growing
attempts to tighten the bolts more against military against people.
Then they'll start rebellious regions being formed. In some parts.
Drafting committee will be not welcome anymore, and will have

(37:00):
independent local leaders in different parts who will not be
listening to Kiev, who will be behaving as they like,
and who does not want to listen to them, They
will be sending them all to the drafting Commission. Attempts
to dance with a central leadership by different regions that's
already happening, racketeering of businesses in Ukraine and attempts to

(37:26):
gather the last of moneies and resources. Eventually government will
lose its capability to pay the pensions and salaries, and
as a result, it will get toppled, it will fall apart.
It will all be happening on the backdrop of growth
of chauvinism. Attempts to call upon population to fight those

(37:46):
who think differently, and that more and more it becomes
reminiscent of the book Inhabited Island by Stovotsky Brothers. And
this will take some time. But the third phase after
that will be civil war or elements of civil war,
destruction of the country. Ukrainian Ruins Central Command will lose

(38:10):
all authority, perhaps keep sam in Kiev only in the daytime,
and then Russia will try to use that situation to
take over. And these are unavoidable three stages for this
project to be destroyed that we know as army, speech
and faith, that can happen within one year in one

(38:30):
year cycle, it might take three years. But however, if
it continues in this direction in autumn, we will absolutely
see dropping down the age of those whoor being drafted
and then don't even question that the next step would
be drafting women. And this project has no alternatives. It

(38:51):
doesn't offer you anything else. And one thing, if it
would be only evil put In, asking for us to
change the project would have been not entirely good. Right now,
we wouldn't feel well to succumb to Putin. However, we
have had experiences in our history when we agreed with

(39:12):
foreign powers. But Ukraine currently direly needs to change its paradigm,
to change its regime and mode, regardless whether there is war,
there is put In Russia or not. If there are
no war military actions, then some processes will slow down.
For example, UAVs will not be following on your heads

(39:32):
and they'll be not fight on the front. But on
the other hand, the differences and breaking points in the
society will be exacerbated because hundreds of thousands of people
will be coming back from the front with their opinions,
and that will actually or might exacerbate the falling apart process.

(39:55):
The end of war would mean a very high probability
of civil war growth, so going directly into a third phase,
skipping the second. That's why even peace is not a
saving grace for that concept. For the narrow Ukraine vision
by Zelensky, Ukraine has no other options but to change

(40:18):
its project. Changing this project is not a guarantee, but
it gives us a chance in both scenarios. Without it,
we are facing other defeat in both scenarios. If war,
you will go through phase two then phase three. If peace,
we likely skip phase two and jump right smack into

(40:38):
phase three. And don't think that you'll have some time
to live in Ukraine for a while and then maybe
leave later. And that is implied to women too. When
they start mobilizing you, you will not be able to leave.
That will shut down the border. That famous saying, I
use the changes accumulate gradually and get realized rapidly in

(41:04):
the very near future. You may find that if you
try to leave the country and they stop you and
you come out and say, well you cannot draft women
and they say, sure, we don't, but we want to
requisition in your car, and you will come to Kiev
to try to appeal that decision, and you will get
told that no, it is needed without even explanations, that

(41:24):
it is for the front, and if you will be
too noisy or too nosy, you will be sent to
the front as a nurse and not to Bachmed but
Kromatorsk and Slavan scraffly within a year, and if American
support will be dwindling, then we'll see that by autumn.
Because now for Ukraine to withstand Russian summer campaign, we

(41:45):
need to mobilize another one hundred and fifty two hundred
thousand to withstand the summer push. Where do we take them?
My acquaintances, they're doing design art projects and lead designer
who has fifteen projects on him to work high profile projects.
He stepped out to the door of the company to smoke.

(42:10):
They jumped at him from behind the corner, grabbed him,
sent him to the front. The company managed to gather
the bribe seven thousand dollars to try to buy him out,
gave it to the head of the local drafting committee
and still didn't help the guys out in the front fighting,
and you might have seen that if you were mobilized.

(42:30):
Our new law that was adopted that if you're mobilized
there is no option to cancel. That you cannot get
out of it once you're mobilized. So all these little
cracks they tell you what will be there already are
little glimpses into the future. So people, if you think
there will be ways for you to pay your way

(42:52):
out of it, to somehow get on a specialist to
not be drafted, you're wrong. And then they'll get to
women and younger men. Anti project is killing Ukraine. It's
all very simple. Some people declare me to be the
enemy of Ukraine. I've never been the enemy of Ukraine,
but I am the most vicious enemy of the Anti

(43:13):
project because I love Ukraine and Ukrainians, and this is
why I so vehemently fighting against this anti project. I
drained all my reputation and popularity to fight for this
other Ukraine, against the Anti Project, because I understand this

(43:33):
is the evil that is killing our country and I
don't really care about my reputation. I did it to
not be ashamed to look at myself in the mirror.
I cannot be at peace with a narrow project. I
support Ukraine as a country, I love our language, but
anti project should be taken out of leadership in our country.

(43:59):
And since I'm five on the cognitive front, on the
information front, that's where I'm fighting, being in political immigration,
I'll be that small newspaper Iskra or magazine Bell that
will be continuously showing that this pathway is wrong. And
Battalian commander that we just heard in the news is

(44:19):
not the first swallow. Remember Marcus the other well known
figure on the front. And not only him. Remember yeah,
he appealed to court some decisions and made it the public.
But it will be worse soon, and very soon it
will be a lot more. That is why I do

(44:40):
wholeheartedly support Ukraine and I say loud, resounding no to
anti project. Zennski, I like say, made a statement that
he is not going to withdraw troops from any of
the Ukrainian territory. And it also is mentioned in the
news that another meeting may happen between the United States,

(45:01):
Russia and Ukraine. It may happen in Turkey, Vatican or Switzerland,
and Zelenski reportedly asked Trump to not make any decisions
about Ukraine without Ukraine, and this is the statement that
I guess we've been missing for that big picture. Oh, absolutely, Alexander,

(45:21):
this is futurology. In the live stream just fifteen minutes ago,
I said, as these news are coming up, let's then
ask you will come out and will deteriorate any negotiation process.
It's pretty clear to me nobody wants to strike any
agreement at the moment. Nobody wants America and Russia to
strike any agreement in Salanska administration. And just remember that

(45:46):
stream when you will see women getting drafted in November. Alexei,
how do we change this project, because look, it must
be a pretty important question. It is deeper than all
the is decorations and what's happening now. Absolutely, Alexander, this
is the main question. And actually it is pretty easy

(46:09):
to change our project. We need to stop first and
understand what we have done during the peace times and
what we continue to do during the wartimes. That country
that affirms burning books and beating people by government agencies
and government organizations, the system that applauds that has no

(46:32):
right to exist government is a secondary function of that system,
of the project, of that project, or anti project. There
is no justification for burning books, There is no justification
for beating up people and throwing them into the buses
for draft. These are two simple examples. You don't even

(46:52):
need to name anything else, even though there are a lot.
A project as such needs to be destroyed. This is
an anti project that is killing our country, much better
than putting in his troops, putting a Russian army are.
They're just a reaction to the existence of anti project,
anti Ukrainian people's project, and Putting came here in some

(47:14):
fashion to fight it because it started affecting his interests
and Russia's interests. And sadly, this anti project was fed
and bred by the West and it was turned to
be more anti Russian. And we need to understand that

(47:37):
those people who drained everything that they got back in
nineteen ninety one, they were very wrong in the scenario,
in the vector, in the strategy. This is not the
most difficult part. One can look at that and understand
how many anti missile complexes did we sell, How many
did we have in ninety one, and how many of

(47:57):
them did we sell. If we had a fraction of
it now, we would have been in a very different
place in this war. If you want to understand what's
happening now, it's only forty five percent of the military
order that has been fulfilled during war, right. But after
that there is a more complex story. You need to
re evaluate your ethical system. Ethic system of the anti

(48:24):
project is against human It is destroying everybody, including those
who carried One very well known Ukrainian television figure an
example of what is to be Ukrainian. Back in nineteen nineties,
he published a video I'm thinking maybe even today. In

(48:46):
that video he attacks me for support of a person
who allowed him to live for two years rent free
in a big apartment in the center of Viv free
while that person could have rented it for huge money
to whoever wanted on the market. So without naming names,

(49:06):
but those who are in Ukraine understand who could it be.
And one of the examples of ethical crimes is being ungracious,
liking grace to those who helped you, not being thankful
to those who support you. And it bothers me that

(49:29):
anti project is somehow related with Ukraine and being Ukrainian,
that Russians don't see the difference, and even Ukrainians don't
fail to see the difference. For example, Alex Kripka his
art as a person who went to my seminars. By
the way, we even recorded several streams with him together

(49:50):
with mutual understanding. And last autumn when I started saying
that this is our future, that we will fail in
our countra offensive and all the politics will be going
in the wrong way. He was asked in one of
the streams, what do you say about Aristovitch. You've been
pretty close to him, You've been legitimizing him in the

(50:12):
Ukrainian media and media's here. He answered that Aristovitch probably
just got too involved with his gameplay and he disconnected
from what needs to support right now. That's why I'm
often as a litmus test, especially given that I do
like to dabble in psychology. I see how people use

(50:35):
the transfer method. I remember when I was at peak
of my popularity back in the beginning of war, I
told pretty much on all the streams where I was
that I will be the one to blame for everything.
And it's sad to me to see that a lot

(50:56):
of prominent Ukrainian figures turned out to be horrible people
in their private lives. All these varions Zabushka's, Portnikov's and
the like, all these quintessence of Anti Project. They are

(51:17):
pretty horrible in their personal lives, and sadly they are
associated with Ukraine. Not Bukov, who shot one of the
best movies about the Second World War, not Djakovski, who
was the Ukrainian, not Zikorski, not Vernadsky, but these people.

(51:46):
And that's why the work to separate Special Military Operation
HIASIA calls it from Ukraine. From understanding that they are
conducting it not against the country. That would be very
important for them if they want to somehow succeed in
their goals, and for us even more important is to
separate us in our Ukrainian core from Anti Project. Well. Look,

(52:13):
I love to speak Ukrainian. Alexi switches to Ukrainian here.
I do love the sound of Ukrainian, but unfortunately I
do not use it too often. You know why, because
now it's a clean marker of belonging to Anti Project.
They succeeded in that. In private conversations, I always switch

(52:37):
to Ukrainian if they can support that, and I enjoy
talking to them because for two years of political exile,
I start losing some of it. If I don't practice.
I love Ukraine as a culture, I love Ukrainian people,
but it is very difficult to pry current Ukraine from
Anti Project because these fellows from Anti project is somehow
decided that they are the only true Ukrainians. They are

(53:00):
the only ones who own the brand of Ukraine and
language of Ukraine. Who told you that? Who blessed you
for this? I think we can call it zelenism Alexei right,
what would Bookov say? Learn it? Bookov that talented movie director.

(53:25):
So from unces Ukrainians. It would be great if we
did two things to repent for taking Anti project, for
being a true Ukraine. We need to repent in this
effort and to rebuild and create a new project where Ukraine,
Ukrainian culture, Ukrainian language are supported as well as supported

(53:51):
anywhere in speech and science and politics, but not exclusively.
An anti Project needs to be burnt and removed and dismantled.
You know. The main sign that will tell us that
we're left ANTIP project when our people will stop arguing
who is real Ukrainian? Because in France nobody argues who

(54:14):
is real French, nobody argues in Britain who is reel
bred mayor of London. A Hindu Prime minister was a Hindu?
Is he a real bred or not? Both fellas originally

(54:38):
India born or India of Indian descent? Pricious nakh Right. Meanwhile,
we are arguing about who is a real Ukrainian in
Ukrainie and this is one of the true signs of
totalitarian regime. Have you seen a totalitarian country that is

(55:02):
flying to space? Empires do that totalitarian regimes don't. Empires
can be rough, they can treat people roughly, true, but
they at least have capacity to discover, explore. This is
colossal work, colossal goal in front of the country. I
could try to do it alone, but even though I

(55:25):
know we need more support and more push. But I
will never stop trying to pry anti project from the
body of Ukraine because too many people sincerely think that
Ukraine is this, that Ukraine is the human hating anti project.

(55:46):
End of the first hour.

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