War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1187: Russia is Starting a New Phase of War. Arestovych, Shelest

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hello, dear friends and guests, subscribers of my channel and
the channel of Alex Aristovitch. Hello, everybody. We are doing
live stream on both channels, and we're talking about most
important matters, about things that you need. Do you understand
what is actually happening in the war between Russia and Ukraine?

(00:28):
And the face is really hot on both on the
front and in the public life in Ukraine. Alex ay,
good evening, Good evening, friends. All right, a couple housekeeping articles.
Our communication is rather expansive. You can notice a couple
QR codes on the screen. My QR code on the

(00:49):
left leads you to my channel where you can leave
a question for our extreme and feel free to chame
in ask what is of interest. We obviously cannot put
all those hundreds of questions, but we'll try to aggregate
them and to present them at least the most interesting
and most controversial ones, and in the tail end of

(01:11):
the show we will get to these questions. Of course,
you can also ask your questions in the chat of
this live stream, and we will take some questions from
the chat at the end of the show. So, regardless
of all the limitations and censorship that different countries put
on these streams, all these efforts that are aimed at

(01:33):
destroying live word. We are glad that you still find
ways to get connected, to get online and to listen
to the message. Let's start with this, I'll say with pleasure.
We are starting with a poll, and our usual poll

(01:55):
today sounds as follows. If escally actions of Zelensky is
are part of a plan? What that plan could be?
And ways to answer Number one, bring in Europe into
the war with Russia. Second, lose loudly and get all

(02:19):
the debts signed off. Option three stay on the throne
longer than put In or Trump. And the final option
is to destroy as many Slavic peoples as possible. So
let's start with this, and we do have a ton
of questions and news coming in. So if we can

(02:42):
think that Zelensky might have a big plan, what plan
could that be? Alexei In your mind, Alexander, this is
a trifled situation. First, a very cursory tells you that
he has no plan. The planning horizon there is very shallow.
It doesn't go beyond a couple months out. They act

(03:07):
on the basis of let's live another night, Let's live
another week, and that's good enough for us, and we'll
see and Rica reconcile everything tomorrow. That's one story. Second
layer deeper is there's no plan, but there are no expectations.
Either expectations come where from that Trump may somehow wake

(03:30):
up and hit Moscow, or Europe may wake up and
go in a crusade over Russia, and Zedansky will be
somebody on the white horse leading that, or perhaps Putin
will die or some aliens will come or whatever. So
a bunch of expectations live on the second level, a
bit below the surface. Where did they come from? They

(03:53):
come from certain expectations from this or about this antierogyme
White people are asking me, am, I calling it anti project,
And this is from the books of Kumilov. There are
passionary systems and there are also anti system systems which

(04:13):
have a lot of death energy and they basically want
to die. Zalenski regime, Ukrainian current regime is a typical
example of the anti system. Very simple marker for that
system to be recognized is rapid dwindling of your population,
because that system devours its own people. And in my estimation,

(04:35):
it is proper to call Ukraine a religious sect pretending
to be an independent state. Oh, that's interesting, Alexei. Well, Alexander,
there is nothing of the government in Ukraine. There is
a lot of anti governments action. Actually when Zelinski regime
is a culmination of that approach, and it's also being

(04:56):
trumpeted as the national idea. All the features of that
anti project are actually embodied in Zelenski himself. And religious
sect has a very narrow worldview. It has a very
narrow dictionary and very specific dictionary. And if you are
not using these words, if you're not using this worldview,

(05:19):
then you are against them. When you need to be oppressed,
you need to be removed. Yesterday we observed more sanctions
on igrams Chuk, on Shaposhnikov and the like. Because we,
as those who are sanctioned, we are observing this process
with curiosity. Because Petr Prashenka, ex President of Ukraine, he

(05:42):
requested a Supreme Court of Ukraine to provide reasons for
sanctions against him imposed by z Lanski. And I'm quite
sure they will fail to produce anything. And some people
are saying the Shydlist and Aristovitch were talking too much,
so that's why they were censured. Well, Parashanka was talking

(06:04):
diameterily opposite things to what we're talking about, and that
just highlights for our listeners that the topic of the
matter is not the reason for censorship. And of course
they will not give any proof, but they will probably
try to prevent Parashanka myself to get into power. We

(06:25):
are heretics for them. They are the sect, They are
Zelensky's witnesses, and we are heretics to them. And we
have been disenfranchised from their organization and written into the
blacklist because not a single voice should be spoken aloud
against the Orthodox message. With Zelenski at the helm and

(06:50):
Saint Johnson and Saint Baden by his side, and by
the way people have not perhaps noticed, but Trump has
recently removed limitations on uth American arms that Biden had
limited before. But returning back to our topic, Zelenski's regime

(07:13):
is illogical. It operates in the religious realm with right
believers and with heretics who oppose them. This is how
they see the world. The fact that they have twenty
five to thirty five percent of Ukrainian supporting them, it's
said they are being suppressed by propaganda machine. They are

(07:35):
being suppressed by Russian attacks and very upset by the
ongoing war and devastated. So they just fallen with the
party line. But if you want to understand at its
core what Zelenski's regime means, treated as a sect, many
things will become much clearer for you. It has nothing
to do with the government and government politics. The government

(07:58):
would have stopped already considering the perspectives of this war.
It would have taken stock, minimized losses and changed its
politics in the fashion to remain and the core of
government interests would have been protected while sect leads to death,
to death of independent Ukraine. This is the main consequence

(08:19):
of the sect's existence. I hope everybody understands that Russia
had changed the face of war and now it is
looking at new perspectives and we are starting to feel them.
I can go deeper into these signs, or you can
lead the stream into a different direction if you want, Alexander,

(08:40):
all right, I would like here, Alexei, that here commenting
on the options for this question that we asked at
the beginning. Perhaps you would have looked into the plan
that Danski government exists, that they have as Alexandria. They

(09:00):
do not have a plan, They have a feeling, a
world view that tells them it's better to die than
to concede, than to acknowledge that they were wrong. That
one of the other names for the sect is I'm
always right, and if you strike truth, it means that
you were wrong. It's some things right, and the sect

(09:22):
believes that they rather die and kill others than to
acknowledge their mistakes. It stands on a huge hyper narcissism,
and this is one of the signs of belonging to
that sect. Everybody is wrong, only us are right. And
you can see that in their evening news streams, in
the bloggers supporting Zennsky. You can see it in his

(09:46):
behavior in Ukraine, with his statements. You can see it
even through his behavior in the Oval office in Washington
and essential messages. You don't understand who Putin is, and
we will show you how he needs to be handled.
This is not about understanding or planning. This is about

(10:08):
a mortal fear to find themselves in the hell of
this sect. Their hell is to find themselves wrong. I
acknowledge that, and so to avoid that they will continue
pressing that they're always right. The thing that cannot suffer
is hyper narcissism, that hyperinflated pride, and for that they

(10:31):
are ready to sign off five, ten or twenty more
million into the grave. The main principle there is not losses,
not lives, but whether you remained right and did not
somehow fall prey or acknowledge that Putin is stronger and

(10:52):
can hold some parts of the country that they occupied.
And you can ask them what the plan. They say,
you cannot capitulate, and you're asking, do you have a plan?
We have to continue fighting? Their answer is, meantime, nobody
is coming to be drafted. They have to continue doing

(11:12):
it by force. And okay, if we're to continue fighting,
what are the positive goals of this fight? Their answer is,
because we cannot surrender. We cannot end it on this fase. Okay, yeah,
let's say I'm with you. It looks legit, Alexander. So

(11:32):
your enemy suggests to give him four districts. If you
will continue fighting, you likely will lose six total. You
will actually destroy these six and a bunch of other
economic installations in the other districts. And if you ask them, now,
why are you doing that and why, there'll be one
hundred thousand more dead, perhaps your relatives, yourself, your family.

(11:56):
These people don't know what to answer. There may messages.
Do not give in and do not sign anything with
Russia and continue fighting. All right, dear friends, don't forget
to click the leg button. This is rather important for us.
Wherever you're watching it on Alexander Shallis channel, on alex

(12:17):
Aristoviti's channel, or here on privateer station. This is very
important for us. If you click the like button, that
helps with the YouTube and rumble algorithms. All right, Alexi,
their statements do change, apparently that long range missiles will
start hitting Russia. They're already counting Taurus missiles and kilometers.

(12:41):
How far will they go for those one hundred and
fifty Tauruses that Meritz supposedly can deliver to Ukraine. What
do you think they can solve in this war? Nothing, Alexander.
Look one hundred and fifty tauruses that Germany promised to provide.
Given that if you want to destroy a target, you

(13:01):
need to launch a volley of ten because part of
them will be shut down by air defense systems, and
if you really want to destroy the target, you need
ten missiles hitting it. So we're talking about ten to
fifteen volleys, ten to fifteen targets. That entertainment could have
been significant in April of twenty twenty two, even in

(13:23):
perhaps November of twenty two, maybe even somewhat important in
July of twenty three. Today it's nothing. Information space today
is overflowing with statements that Russia is already producing five
hundred UAVs a day and producing them faster than they

(13:43):
can use it on the front. Even the economy is
trote recently that one thousand UAVs per day is not
an unachievable goal for Russia. And now look, one thousand
UAVs per day and one hundred and fifty toruses for
the whole time, or maybe for three months, half a year,

(14:04):
these are incomparable. That's it. Perhaps that's it, but there
is more here, Alexey, is Germany ready to confront Russian militarily?
And do you think there will be some actions following

(14:26):
these toruses? Because it seems like Ukraine is bent on
dragging Germany, France with their president who was recently slapped
in his face by Brigitte Macron, and drag everybody they
can so that other countries would fight for Zelensky and
that statement from Zelensky's office actually fits pretty well in

(14:48):
the strategic story that you described. Well, first of all,
these big guys, even if they get face slapped, it's
up to them to respond and choose how to If
they decide that they want to be dragged into this war,
they will. If they somehow full bred is Alenski, well,
then they have no pity. They stopped being the agent,

(15:13):
and can they do it. Germany has nothing, France at
least has some weapons, Britain has some fleet elements. But
if Russia decides to realize their if then answers which
they answered that if we will be hit by tauruses,

(15:33):
we will answer proportionally to the manufacturer of tourists. So if,
for example, they get hit by Taurist missiles, they might
drop a couple of ballistic missiles onto Germany. What will
Germany do well? Perhaps fifth Article of NATO, right, fifth
article is only consultation. They will run to the United States,

(15:54):
perhaps to France. I don't think they'll talk to Turkey
in this regard. They'll be talking for a long time,
will probably get face slapped again, and then as the result,
they likely will slap more sanctions on Russia because there
are no politicians on the West who are ready to
oppose Russia militarily in this new format and new context.
They're just none. If you have not found them by

(16:15):
fourth year of this war, it's useless to expect that
somehow you'll find them later. They're playing simulation. They're feeding
Ukraine with illusions, and the sect we have here is
gay is feeding itself off these illusions. Oh my god.
Trump came out in the United States and said that

(16:37):
Putin has gone mad. Everything will be different now, right,
all the inspirations. Postovski, a well known Russian author, described
that in his story The Purple Light and over there
there was a story of people who were so desperate
for some outcome that they were grasping at stores even

(16:58):
if they were told that there is some supernatural purple
light that will shine tomorrow and destroy all their enemies.
And it takes me an effort to not fall back
to expectives. Describing the current situation in Ukraine, everything that's
happening there is a huge tragedy, but it is so
tragic that it's slowly turning into a dark comedy. As

(17:22):
Stanie Sla Fyegelette's commented on other things that if you
go deeper into the problem, you're taking a risk of
exiting it on the other side. And it reminds me
what's happening in Ukraine that drunk actors who have drunken everything,
all the attributes of the theater burned to the theater itself,

(17:43):
and now they're gathering to perform something on the smoking ruin.
So to create a new background to understand the picture sharper,
to understand the perspectives of this new phase of war.
Perhaps it makes sense to describe that new phase look

(18:08):
last year. Invite that was still open till last week,
and Stanbul was relying on June ultimatum from Puttin stated
back in twenty twenty four four districts in Crimea. Russia
did not care how they would get to those four districts.

(18:29):
If they can achieve it diplomatically, they could, they did
not have to fight, and they were looking forward to
perhaps striking diplomatic deal. Yet that agreement failed. That proposal
was on the table for a year and then it
was dismissed ultimately by Ukrainian side. Then Puttin makes new

(18:51):
statements that now he is talking perhaps about Ada Sandic alive.
He's already sending those warnings for today a death sendi
calive are not voiced officially, but he reaffirmed those four
districts and adding two more buffer zones Sumi and Coursk.
Their goals are to take danyets Klogansk and Zaparos the

(19:15):
Parogia district entire Zeparogia District. So that you understand, these
are the goals of the summer autumn campaign that put
you announced for this year, depending on how it goes,
most likely being realistic, and you know, three years of
war taught them to be closer to the facts. They

(19:36):
understand that they probably will take Danyetsk and Lugansk and
they will have to postpone thea Parogia district till later.
Next piece proposal we may expect from them in autumn
October November when they take Danyetsk and Lugansk and create
some buffer zones in Chernigov, Sumi and the neighboring districts,
and they would probably come out and say, fellas we

(19:58):
are suggesting that we come to a again and peace
agreement again will be reinforced. We can sign it only
with somebody who follows Zelenski, not with him. They're stating
that they can sign truth and sees Fire before the
elections to allow Ukraine to conduct elections and will sign

(20:18):
the actual peace deal with the next president. Then more
interesting commentaries surfaced from the Committee of Defense that this
war is for uniting Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, for creating
a joint unified state. This is not a decinical life.
This is a slightly different story, Alexei. Can you unpack it?

(20:38):
Because many public commentators and analysts, let's say, are very
skeptical and somewhat in very Ukrainian style, in the Zelenski style,
have characterized the statements from Russia. And this is why
I'm asking you to unpackage the story. Kodakov, a legal

(21:05):
advisor to put In, came out and said that Louk
usesr fell apart in a wrong fashion. Loc Alexander. These
are the statements from official people, but they're not the frontmen,
and what they're doing, they're setting a new horizon. Front
men would be love of, for example, Russian Minister of

(21:26):
Foreign Affairs who said that if we are proceeding in
that fashion, if you fail to agree to our proposals.
We will be continuing our warfare with you, and you
will eventually understand that our terms are what they are
and you cannot wiggle out. But they're concentrating on destroying

(21:47):
the reasons for this war. Anti project of Ukraine as
an anti project for Russia. They want to change that
project projectivity of the country. But these new faces that
come out, they're saying that yes, change of projectivity plus
going into the new bigger project together with Russian BEARUS
official Russia is not stating that yet as the goals

(22:09):
of their military campaign. However, when the member of the
Defense Committee in their Congress or legal advisor to put
in this making the statement and nobody at text them,
it means that they're setting a new horizon, and it
means that these goals will be on paper for us
to consider. If we do not get sober, there will

(22:30):
be four districts, then there will be six districts in
the proposal, and then probably instead of eight districts, will
see another proposal that Russia wants to create a unified country,
perhaps not with the whole Ukraine, but with whatever they
annex militarily. And they already have those four districts added
to their constitutions so they would not have any alternative governance.

(22:54):
This is the next goal, a big one. Even if
they will can going in an orderly fashion, they are
already setting remote goals because they are connecting the reasons
for this war with the existence of independent Ukraine as
a country. And they're saying that the core reasons for

(23:17):
this war are in existence of Ukraine as an independent state.
It needs to disappear or remain independent, but as a
friendly state, perhaps as a friendly state within some para
organization with Belarus and Russia. And this is the far
horizon that they're describing. Their actions on the international arena

(23:39):
are already following with that suit. And you can achieve
this goal militarily, diplomatically, or in any combination of approaches. Now,
let's look at all things aerial on the front except
for what's happening actually on the front line. There are
things related to that that's happening in the manufacturing capabilities.

(24:00):
Last night there were three hundred to four hundred UAVs
attacking Ukraine, and there are open statements that soon there'll
be five hundred or six hundred. That implies that our
air defense systems will be filing to contain that well,
they're already failing right right, Plus Russia will be adding
AI elements to it, or the lead UAV will be

(24:21):
conducting the flock of following UAVs and attacking one target together.
What does it mean? It means that our air defense
systems are trying to intercept uvs, wasting precious missiles on
these smaller targets instead of ballistic missiles or more important
and more devastating MUSS methods of attack. It means that

(24:43):
also Europe will not be able to provide US enough
missiles to keep shooting down these Russian aerial attacks. And
this is a dead end path because a missile costs
much more than a UIV. You first need to organize
air defense system that can shoot down up to a
thousand targets a day. Air defense systems are super expensive,

(25:08):
long to train, and single produced specialists are produced individually.
You just don't have enough specialists to do that, and
it's going to be more and more difficult to shut
down these UAVs if they start equipping it with AI.
So Ukrainia is now looking at the ABYSS. We were
proud that we could be making some of the uvs

(25:31):
in our garages, but frankly, none of the smaller producers
can compete with Russian government machine and a well known
statement states that order always beats class, and Russia figured
a way to produce way more UAVs, and they're opening
more and more factories producing them. And that downpour of

(25:56):
the attacks, of the means of attack, of verial attack
that will continue on our heads will very quickly demoralize
Ukraine in deeper areas away from the front. Faster doesn't
mean in two days or two weeks, but if they
continue attacks for the next six months, the rest of

(26:16):
Ukraine will be facing a very significant psychological hurdle. We
are not exactly familiar with this location of military training
centers manufacturing centers in Ukraine right. Russians probably don't have
clear targets too. But recently, if you noticed, the Ukrainian

(26:39):
diep wits figured out that we'll be turning off the
cellular phone connections for eight to twelve hours. That's one
of the dumbest decisions because outside of giving a chance
for somebody to guide uivs, it also is heavily relied
upon by manufacturers by people in Ukraine to communicate with

(27:01):
each other. Military orders are sent very often with via
cell phones, so they have not really thought through disorder
or this idea. And it appears more and more that
Zensky government is some sort of shamanism trying to concoct
their victory out of weird motions. Right, Zenansky is sort

(27:23):
of a top shaman, sitting at the smoking fire, right
talking to ghosts and spirits. All these developments in aerial
warfare indicate that Ukrainian safety away from the front is evaporating,
because safe territory away from the front and the territory

(27:47):
that is getting attacked nightly are two very different things.
If there'll be sirens screaming nightly and there'll be hundreds
of military vehicles falling on your heads that you cannot
do anything about. I predict that by November the country
will be quite ready to negotiate. Now again, when everybody

(28:09):
falls into this mood, eventually into the despair, what would
be the next move of the sect we already defined?
They cannot establish a more effective military manufacturing complex. I
think I know a LEXI hold the thought for a
sec I think I know what you're going to say.
But so look they cannot resist militarily effectively long term

(28:31):
to Russian Federation. People were laughing initially that Russia was
trying to produce something and there was not flying or
not exploding. Well, three years deeper, they figured out how
to make relatively working UIs, and I suspect they will
continue that growth and by November there might be a
next evolution of this phase. More UAVs, more ballistic missiles

(28:53):
and perhaps very depleted uvs, and Ukraine that anti UAV
missiles in Ukraine that can only target select few. And
we've been comparing before two different kinds of UAVs, right,
There are different UAVs. There are AUVs that fly to
destroy some civilian target, and then there are also battlefront

(29:14):
a avis. And Russia is already exceeding Ukraine in manufacturing
these battlefront a avs, which are heavier, armored and can
destroy better. And if this trend continues, they interact with China.
They gathered enough resources to build more factories. If that
trend continues in six months, we will be losing the

(29:37):
air over the front line as well. We are already
losing it or on the verge, and this will be
leading us in the logic of the funnel of catastrophes.
It will be phase three or four, from where you
usually cannot get out. What could a system do if

(29:59):
it were the proper government, it could have said, fellows,
everything for the front, everything for the victory. We are
in danger. We can really resist with our blood, sweat
and tears. Everybody go manufacture these things. We're establishing more
factories or producing UAVs and mass Can you imagine that
happening in Ukraine? Can you imagine Zelenski's sect doing it?

(30:23):
Of course not. They failed to get smarter for the
last two and a half years and they're not going
to get smarter anytime soon. So their perspective basically now
changes to one speech, one faith, one district because we
have one brain cell. Oh that's a good slogan, Alexey. Right,
before that qualitative jump to the next phase, Russia will

(30:46):
likely suggest another negotiation and with different terms. Perhaps we'll
be asking for six districts and new conditions. What do
you think the Sect will answer? They will exacerbate tragedy, Alexey. Right,
they have disrupted the stumbul, they will disrupt another stumbul,

(31:07):
and they will allow Russia to terrorize the rest of Ukraine.
And if their uvs hit anything like chemical factory or
nuclear plant, then Ukraine will probably begging for more sanctions
against Russia. And that's all strategy they have, Alexey, what

(31:31):
I wanted to bring here. At the end of last week,
the dogs started barking at the caravan. Everybody started attacking Aristovage,
who made a post that the fundraising for military and
non military purposes, but we're gathering another fund raiser that

(31:52):
you had was for things that are not killing, for
humanitarian transports, evacuation things, And there was a whole machine
trying to attack you. I just know which is a traitor,
et cetera, et cetera. Do you understand that the problem
of this pool of people who've been peddling this topic,

(32:13):
and I apologize, I will give myself to perhaps a
little boldly, but to summarize that you've been analyzing everything
from the position of a person who cares about Ukraine,
and just like now you're asking what will the sect do?

(32:35):
The sect will likely create a tragedy to be able
to show it in the world media, to show some
blood path after explosion of some factory or some other
tragedy that happens, which they tried to do before. But
you know, with Kakhovski, I guess that did not cause

(32:56):
too wide of a splash in the world media. They
can blow up perhaps Kievan Dam and you know one
bank of the city will be underwater. That will be horrible,
and the SECT would be hoping that the world will
finally wake up, we will say no more victims and
will somehow come to agreement. So that could have been

(33:19):
an interesting Hollywood blockbuster story. I think with Bruce Willis,
who is lighting up the last match or shooting and
that jet or aav flying over the target. Is that
the scenario that the SECT is trying to peddle, and
that's why SECT will try to answer with tragedy to
Russian devancements loc Alexander. This goes into two things. First

(33:43):
is the reaction of the world. In reality, there were
a million ways of reasons for the world to intervene.
The word itself is a huge reason. Then there were
Herson prisons, there were tragedies in Bucha, attacks on civilian
targets and what and nothing. Hyper narcissism of Zelansky Sect

(34:05):
is that they think that the world has not seen
tragedies as what is happening in Ukraine, and second that
the world owes it to Ukraine and they need to
react to every hair that falls from the Ukrainian child's head.
The world actually saw a lot of tragedies like what's
happening in Ukraine. And moreover, some countries in this world

(34:27):
are the authors of a lot bigger tragedies than what's happening.
They're trying to appeal to whom to American senators who
back in the day were fighting in Vietnam themselves, when
chemical weapons were used, when agent orange was used, when
probably about two million civilians were dead as the result

(34:51):
of military operations, and then there was againist in Iraq,
many other incidents that I don't think will fly. That
expectation doesn't have legs for Ukraine. And of course Trump
comes out and says that Putin is mad, has gone mad,
and it's all sad. But he's not if you notice,

(35:12):
he's not talking about giving more arms to Ukraine for
a simple reason that Russia for him, is a factor
and a serious and very responsible ally. For one simple reason.
Russia is ready for a nuclear war to defend its interests,
and Trump is not ready to start a third World
war with nukes. And that's why Russia has a weight

(35:33):
on the global arena. Now, what is Ukraine for Trump?
It's a toxic passive asset. You can be talking for
about things and peace and all deals for years. We've
been talking for three years already. But unless the projectivity
of Ukraine changes, that toxic acid will not become a

(35:54):
non toxic acid. Now, if Ukraine went to bed today
and woke up tomorrow in a country similar to Israel,
with good high tech, with very good connections, with the
United States being la number one. Look how American street Israel.
They're not really treating them well. Right. Trump was quite

(36:15):
brutal to Netanyahu. He demanded the stoppage of Operation Trump
is ready to acknowledge Palestinian state and almost slapping sanctions
on Israel. And that with a very deep codependency of
Israel and the United States that we can only dream about.
So if he makes exert so much pressure on Israel,

(36:37):
you can only imagine how much pressure would be on Ukraine.
Well that's part of a riddle. Ale I say, I'm
quite curious why not so much pressure is exerted on Ukraine.
We've been talking here that with my other guests. I
was saying that some expectations were that Trump will force
Ukraine to the table, that Ukraine will start negotiating, that

(37:00):
new ambassador will figure a deal and everything will be good,
and Ukraine and oligarchs will be losing their stolen monies
and Ukraine will get new deals and new future. Well,
Alexander Trump does not need the Ukraine. Trump was hoping
to offer a good deal that Russia and Ukraine will

(37:23):
sign off on voluntarily. Russia said, yes, sure, why not.
Here's a trilliant fund. Here's a trust fund. We don't
care how we get to the goals. That looks like
a way to get there. Give us for districts, and
after that we can conduct any deal, plus neutrality of
the country, plus Russian language, church, et cetera. Everything that
lever of headsaid stated. And Zelenski came out and said, no,

(37:45):
we don't need that. We need to continue the war
and you Trump need to start participating in it. Trump
went to think of it and came back and said,
you know, whatever Zelenski says really obstructs everything that we're
trying to do here. And even if the left Bank
of Kiev will be completely washed off with the Kievan

(38:05):
Dam waters. The world may be upset for a week.
It will not do much. It perhaps will add a
couple more sanctions against Russia, but that's it. That's one
of the limits. And the other limit is that there
is really nothing to fight Russia with, and they're not
going to Ukraine to fight for Ukraine against Russia. That

(38:27):
fairy tale where one country is a probable not simple,
but a probable ally in a complex world, and the
other country is a toxic acid that is hanging on
your neck. It's usually being resolved in one fashion, time
and time again by leaving from Vietnam or Afghanistan. In

(38:52):
our lives, I was born in seventy five. America has
left Vietnam. America has left Afghanistan and Iraq. Yes, with
civilians falling off the planes that were taking off the runway. Yes,
abandoning several hundred thousand peoples who were working with American
administrations while they were there, basically abandoning them all. Their

(39:14):
destinies are tragic and horrible. Those are the parents who
are giving their children to soldiers, leaving the country considering
themselves already dead. Just to try to give future for
their child in the United States, and a well known
saying is coming to mind. It's dangerous to be the
enemy of the United States, but it's much more dangerous
to be its friend. And that's the story than fifty

(39:37):
nuclear bombs. Russian bombs exploding over Ukraine will not change anything.
Nobody will fight for US except for Russia and Belarus.
Nobody will fight for Ukraine. Are only two countries who
are eager to fight for Ukrainian territory in both positive
and negative versions. In positive when we somehow unite together.
In the negative, they're fighting with Ukraine as they think

(39:59):
against the out the Ukraine. And that's only Russian Vialorus,
nobody else. That's the reality will live in. Smart people
will be basing their politics on this reality. But since
we do not have a government with smart people, we
have a religious sect. They cannot make smart decisions. They
can only simulate rationality, but in their worldview they are

(40:23):
illogical to normal logic. But they're logical within their own
goal sets, and they do not have any serious answer
to the problems we're posting. And those who are still
trying to think in Ukraine just analyze what can they do.
And that's why I think it will not be a tragedy.

(40:44):
It will be a protracted tragedy. The more uvs will
be falling on the heads of Ukrainians, the higher the
degree of patriotism screams will be. They'll be probably falling
into some fascist tractorics and fascist practices on the nation.
And I think as was it has Or who also

(41:09):
said that when the government starts to burn books, they
will end up burning people. And we've already seen some
books being burnt in some districts. I predict a very
serious threat to mobilizing women somewhere in autumn. They're already
dropping down the age of men who are going to front.

(41:31):
They will need to drop it down to eighteen and
Central Drafting Committee will need to become more active. So
the country is a hostage of the Sect, and the
Sect is dragging it into a grave. There is no
single rational explanation that they can provide. Why do not
they stop? They're repeating as a mantra that Russia will

(41:54):
not stop. Okay, let's play this out. Russia does not stop.
The Russia will not stop fighting against Sect. Sure, but
whom can they stop? Fighting against Why Russia is not
fighting with Kazakhstan, Why they're not fighting with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan
is not a complimentary state to Russia. They just destroyed

(42:16):
their ally Armenia, and yet Russia is not at war
with Azerbaijan. Apparently there are conditions that allow Russia to
not fight. We are not Kazakhstan or Azerbaijan. Obviously they
look at us differently. But even on these terms, we
could have done something to stop this war. There are

(42:36):
ways to do that. They actually are naming certain things
that they are ready to stop military action on these
conditions one, two, and three. But the conditions keep deteriorating
for us because the sect continues to insist on fighting.
There are no perspectives though. There are no conditions under
which Ukraine. Ukraine can prevail in this war. International support
will never change because we are alien for them. Let's

(42:59):
just face it. They're not ready to fight with a
nuclear country, especially with Russia. For Ukraine. Nobody, nobody will
one hundred and fifty toruses that we're getting. That's a
great story. Well we haven't gotten them yet, right, but uh,
they're promising, right, that's a great story. But this is
a drop. This is not enough, and Europe cannot provide

(43:21):
a stream of support that can allow Ukraine to equally
resist military industry of Russian Federation. Europe and the United
States just cannot. Even the United States cannot do it now.
And even United they likely will not be able to
resist Russia at this point because they've missed certain milestones. Plus,

(43:41):
there are no guarantees that China will not start aiding
Russia if the situation will change on the front. Therefore,
any continuation of this war is just exacerbation of the
number of victims and their conditions of a very rational
situation where nothing can be changed with these actions, and

(44:01):
the Sect has no perspectives. It is incapable militarily, it
is incapable administratively, it is incapable diplomatically. And one more
element here is that not only the world will not
react to Ukraine the way the Sect wants it to
answer me the question what is the reason for existence,

(44:23):
reason reason theater for this anti project? This is a
good question. It's not getting easier for civilians right under
this regime. Our economy is not getting better, life is
not getting better. The latest law they adopted that every
time you sell a coutch you need to declare that
as an income. Congrats, you're all entrepreneurs. You want it

(44:43):
to be entrepreneurs. Now you are entrepreneurs and you have
to report for two hundred drivenas to the Text Commission.
What are we fighting for for Ukrainian culture and language?
I can remind you an episode here from the Soviet
Union Times that they we had a Ukrainian language and
culture quite flourishing. The number of books in Ukrainian. Nobody

(45:06):
published as much as Soviet Union did. Independent Ukraine didn't
publish even a hundredth of what Soviet Union did in Ukrainian.
The best encyclopedia Ukraine language was published under Soviet Union Times.
And trilateral state does not threat this Ukraine. Right in

(45:28):
Moscow we have Tarashavchenka un less of Ukrainka and square
on Franco that are next to Kievan rail station. So
Ukrainian culture and language will definitely remain in that whatever
trilateral state that Russia is putting on the horizon on
the agenda, nothing will happen to the culture. They may

(45:50):
be calling it a small Russian or something else, but
it will be Ukrainian. Then what we're fighting for. And
I want to remind that old Ukrainian insurgency leaders were
telling me that Roshov, the leader of Soviet Union, when
they were agreeing looking for ways to stop fighting with
insurgency army in Ukraine, they actually allowed, came to a

(46:14):
temporary truth, took some of the leaders, brought them to Kiev,
leaders of insurgent's army and showed them very expensive publications
of Ukrainian authors Tarashyavchenka gilded. Addition, thesauruses in Ukrainian girls,
in Ukrainian national dresses in Kiev, Ukrainian language all around them,

(46:37):
and they were asked a question, what are you fighting for?
And the leaders of insurgency movement they gave up, They
abandoned their fight because the tragedy here is not in
that nobody helps Ukraine. Because the dam, for example, will
be washed in three hundred thousand more people will die.
The tragedy of antiproject is that it existence is pointless,

(46:58):
utterly pointless. They're saying they're fighting for Ukrainian identity and
language and culture, Ukrainian identity, language and culture. Even if
Russia completely anneccess, the country will continue to exist. They
will not disappear. Why does the culture have to exist

(47:18):
on a certain territory under certain regime that sect has
no answers to it. Well, also, let's say, let's look
at Europe. Mert surprised as with the trusts gift, but
also mentioned that if Slovaks and Hungarians will continue to
mobile and take a different position from the main course
of European Union, we will defund some of your projects. Right,

(47:42):
so basically, if you will not be supporting our politics
or will turn off the guests, Oh great, Alexander. So
the old story of Europe is that the countries will
start fighting with each other, right, old members fighting new members.
And frankly, there are a lot of contradictions between East
Europe and Western Europe. For example, the destiny of Yugoslavia

(48:02):
is still smoldering. But the central question of the story
what are the positive goals of anti project in Ukraine? Listen,
the only thing they state is preserving national culture. They
don't need state for that culture can exist without the state.

(48:23):
A simple example, the only dependency is that the nation
dispersed would want to continue to identify Ukrainian, to learn
the language, to use Ukrainian dresses, listen to certain music
and read certain books if they want to. For that,

(48:45):
the culture needs to appeal to very high meanings that
when a person meets, for example, American culture, German culture,
French culture, Australian culture, they need to wherever else Ukrainians
are in the world, they need to say that, look, kids,
you are now in Italian culture. Seventy percent of cultural

(49:10):
treasures are in Italy of the world cultural treasures. But
that culture, and let's call it culture acts of culture,
who needs to be so strong that the kids would
want to be part of it. You cannot force Ukrainian people.
Even if you force it on your children, they will

(49:30):
drop it off by the time that you're in eighteen
or twenty five and might end up being opponents and
will be pushing back on the Ukrainian culture, just like
kids in Kiev today are listening to Russian rap and
watching Russian TV series to protest, they sect politicians and
their orders. But if there is something of meaning like

(49:54):
Heavenly comedy, faust or something else written in Ukrainian, that
they are so great that kids would say, you know what,
I want to read it in the original language in
Ukrainian So you know, Alexey Karschinski actually mentioned recently you
and some of the cultural aspects in his speech somewhere

(50:19):
that he was saying that we do not want to
regurgitated Russian, we want to read things in the original.
And that position of Aristovich, as he said, he is saying,
he's comparing you with the old toy. That is pointless

(50:42):
now that he needs to go to a different light
and different story. Well, you know what Alexander asked Karshinsky,
how many foreign languages does he know and what language
does he use to read Faust? I assure you he
is reading it in Russian, because I've worked with him
for ten years and I know what he can read
and what he cannot read. Second, he probably cannot order

(51:06):
an ice cream in English. I'm not even talking about
German or Spanish. So he's reading things in that regardsitated Russian.
That he is saying, second is good to Ukrainian? Is
Dante Ligieri written in Ukrainian? Well you need to dig deeper. Right,
maybe Jesus Christ is Ukrainian. You know that ald anecdote? Right?

(51:30):
Hermann is he also Ukrainian? They're all screaming about European
culture as if they were creating it. They need to
show a true Ukrainian pearls, a true Ukrainian cultures. They
don't need to bring Poles and Germans and others. I
value those cultures. They have a lot to give. By

(51:51):
the way, I did study in the Institute, in the
Catholic Institute of Relgious Studies, and Mike quaint with the
Western literature and culture is a bit deeper than Kochynsky
can imagine. But yet I do not present pearls made

(52:12):
in one culture for pearls of another culture. Meantime, some
of the politicizing sect members, they're saying that we do
not need to watch the Mystery of a Third Planet
or the Guests from the Future that were shot in
Russian and Soviet times. There are great TV series and
movies produced in the West. This is the wrong approach.

(52:35):
Where are you and where is West? Show your own
kids cartoons, TV series? You don't have any What were
you doing for thirty four years? You do not want
to read regurgitated Hergel. I'm quite sure Korczyinsky read the

(52:56):
Phenomenology of a Spirit in Russian because in a German
Hilman he knows Hendekok and even that from the Soviet
movies about Second World War right and probably Yayana Teori.
And the second part is limits and limitations. Krzynsky is

(53:17):
not needed in the West to the descendants of Dante
and others. They don't need that. They don't need Kurczynski
as the cultural figure. They want him as the native
dressed in a blanket that he got for fighting their neighbors.
And that's the tragedy that they're forgetting that the ancestors

(53:41):
of the other cultures do not really need Ukrainians in
any format. And that's where we can quote Taras Bulba.
He is not Korczynski, of course, but he's got some authority, right,
his author has, so that literary figure is saying that you,
and he's talking about Ukrainians, that you prefer the boot

(54:04):
of the Polish landowner that is pressing your neck to
your own identity on your own lands. And this is
about Koshynski's message basically, and whoever is supporting him literally,
this is funny if you know and understand these elements.
And he's not a dumb person. But that religious sect

(54:28):
that is driving our country apparently is desensitizing the brains,
even of the smarter ones. Look, just understand the situation.
Once again, these people are screaming, we do not need
Bobby because Pete is giving us better, more cultural jewels,

(54:50):
and Pete says, I don't need you get lost. I'd
rather talk to Bobby because Bobby has some stuff, some
cultural achievements of his own. And yeah, Vasa has. For example,
Bobby has Stravinsky, Tchaikovsky, rapping, Tolstoy, Goggle, Malevich, Christakovich. What

(55:12):
do you have? Karzynski and his converts are known on
the West only for one thing, that they're fighting against Bulgakov.
In just Germany, the number of doctorate works dedicated to
Bulgakov are over two hundred end of the first hour

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