War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1222: Russians in Dnepr? F-16 Pilot's Sacrifice. Elections and Miracles.. Arestovych, Shelest

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hello, dear friends, guests and subscribers to my channel and
to alexis channel. Thank you very much for waiting for
our views and weekly tags and interesting nuance that most
people seem to notice but don't really have time to
analyze it, but here we do. You find this time

(00:26):
to both communicate with you and to dig deeper into
the meaning of things happening around us. Hello Alexei, good evening.
Thank you everybody for clicking the leg button. Please do
not forget to click subscribe button so you can see
the notifications in your YouTube channel. Those who are watching
us from Ukraine, thank you for switching to a different country,

(00:48):
because otherwise our channel is thurtled and this stream is
happening on both channels. You can see two QR codes
at the bottom on the left under me. You can
go and ask questions for the next stream, and there'll
be links to the telegram channel shatlist my channel, and

(01:10):
of course you can leave questions there as well. There's
a bunch of good questions coming later today. We'll talk
about them, and were also streaming the chat live during
our live streams, and you can vote and you can
ask more questions there. So I would put there another
question for a poll. It's non scientific, but it's among

(01:34):
our viewers. Maybe it will change the flow of this war.
We'll see. So today in Crivau Rogue, there are two explosions.
First the UAV geranium or Shahad hit some targets, and
then the second attack happened in the street when another
poor soul was being dragged by the Drafting Commission and

(01:56):
that hit was right next to that commission's building. They
already reported that nobody suffered and everybody went to shelter earlier.
But what's curious is Russians targeting this building. So the
question is how do you treat and what do you
think about Russian attacking Russian side attacking Drafting Commission in Ukraine.

(02:19):
Option number one Russians are getting too bold. Option number
two Russians are pushing it further to a total war
and this is crossing some boundaries, so likely it will
change to something worse. And the third option is perhaps

(02:41):
the war will be over soon. There are a lot
of opinions, by the way, in the media both and
in the socials of private individuals that the war soon
will be over. So it seems like people are really
wishing the end of war upon themselves. And option four
for the naysayers who say, no, there are no strikes
on drafting Commission facilities. Russia doesn't care about that, So

(03:05):
let's vote. I'm curious what will be the leading answer,
and what would be your answer, Alexei. If we are
talking about the targets of these air strikes, Alexander, he
wants me to answer about whether it's a systemic target.
Because they hit one, I would say, let them hit
twelve and then we can talk about whether it's systemic

(03:27):
target or not. One is too random to discuss. If
it's at least two strikes, then maybe there is something
to talk about. And I do want to pose a
question here, why would Russia want to destroy our drafting facilities? Well, look,
it is technically a legitimate target, right, Alexei. This is
a military installation and they are attacking military training facilities. Right. Well, okay,

(03:53):
it is some sort of a military goal, that's correct,
but it has a very weak influence on things happening
on the front. In the training facility, we already have
somebody who was caught, drafted, or volunteered to get there,
who already put on the uniform and is learning the
military mastership in some fashion, and soon we'll be on

(04:16):
the front. In the drafting commission, there can be a
lot of civilians. There could be women going there to register,
there could be local civilians coming to solve something for
the paperwork. There are also These buildings are also very
often located in the living areas of the cities or
office buildings, So this is very questionable as a target.
If you're attacking a training facility, you're removing future soldiers

(04:40):
from ever getting to the front. Right when you are
attacking drafting commission facilities, well, what exactly are you destroying?
And Ukraine may even figure out another way to draft people,
some other more noble way to do it. And since
it's less calculable of a outcome, these attacks are so

(05:02):
during the war, people tend not to make decisions that
are difficult to calculate the outcome of They usually refrain.
I would think they would refrain from attacking them purposely.
So Alexeydristovich is likely to vote for the last option. Right,
this is not profitable for Russia, and what's happening on
the streets of Ukraine is more beneficial to Russia. In

(05:23):
terms of causing more uppaproar with the civilians when they
get drafted by force. Right, Okay, so let's start with
the bright event of today and some of the echoes
of previous days, the situation between Russia and Azerbijan. Azerbaijan
information media agencies are huffing and puffing and very concerned

(05:45):
with the current situation. Today they picked editor of Sputnik
media in Azerbaijan and detained him and drove him in
the unknown direction somewhere, presumably to jail, claiming that he's
an fsb age of putting that was instigated by Russians
capturing two leaders of Azerbaijan Diaspera in catherine Burg in Russia.

(06:11):
And there were quite a few questions addressed to our stream.
What does it mean in geopolitical sense? Can it have
any long legs? Can it affect anything? And how do
you treat the situation with Azerbaijan or Menia Russian Federation?
What the fires are starting deeper in Russia? Now, look, Alexander,
there are a lot of noise around this event, but

(06:34):
not enough data to project something bigger of an outcome
from this conflict. And as we saw in the media too.
Representatives of Azerbaijan the Aspera were detained in catherine Berg
and then they were found deceased. They were reported to
die while in captivity, and then Azerbaijan captured two of

(06:54):
reportedly put on SKGB operatives. So two events two on two.
They are not massive detain detainment or exodus of Azerbaijani
in Russia and the same thing in Azerbijian regarding Russians.
So we do not have a reason for a serious
geopolitical game here. So okay, let's fantasize whether there could

(07:16):
be some geostrategic play here. Pashnan, the leader of Arminia,
was in Turkey recently. Perhaps they discussed some peace treaties
and relations with Azerbaijan there and the destiny of zan
Gezora corridor. It's probably more of interest to Iran that
used this corridor to bring goods to Arminia and transfer
them from there further and those thirty three kilometers are

(07:38):
definitely a point of geopolitical contention, and there could be
two options here there. Pashayan could have agreed that Azerbaijan
in one way or the other, maybe under joint control
somehow gets access to that Zangizor corridor and it becomes
a part of a Caspian corridor that can be used

(08:01):
to transfer goods from Middle Asia to Turkey and then
further to a Black Sea area. So okay, why Azerbaijan
would want to argue and quarrel with Russia over that?
Imagine Russia is against this additional trade route, but why
do you want to squabble you start arresting editors of

(08:23):
Russian news agencies? How can that affect the situation? That's
a big if. And let's imagine that they did not
agree right and Russia influenced that agreement, then maybe there
is a way to revenge avenge some things. But again,
this is a very short sighted action and doesn't look
like Azerbaijan strategy. The country who recently demonstrated that they

(08:44):
could wait twenty years and prepare the operation before carrying
it out and achieving the goals they had set in
the Karabakhor and suddenly impulsively ill thought actions with a
poorly calculable consequence to do that and to try in

(09:04):
attempt to try that zan Gizor corridor. This doesn't look
like big geopolitical issue. We of course, I was approached
by a bunch of consparologists and told that you do
not understand that this is a complex story and one time,
one day, it will blow up in the Russian direction.
You don't understand what will happen, what a Zerbaijan had
concocted there. I'd like to answer these conspiracies with Okay,

(09:29):
let's I understand. You may have been told that let's
see how events unfold, what will see big strategic actions
and not big strategic talks and rumors, and that's when
the actions make it worthy to discuss. For now, we
have two arrested as Erbijan citizens who supposedly died of

(09:50):
unknown causes in jail, and two FSB supposed agents were
captured in Azerbijan. Right as you paid attentional, let's say
there's two for two, right, there is some parroty in it. Okay,
you know some people are screaming now that look that
there's Islamization of Russia. Caucuses are encroaching Alexander. This is

(10:11):
the same as some people are basically huffing and puffing
about this in Ukraine to draw attention away from the
failures on the front soumely Uiv's frontline crumbling? What do
we where do we deflect the attention? Oh? Look, Russia
has conflict with Azerbijan. Maybe what will happen? Oh, Russia
will probably lose because Turkey will likely get engaged. And

(10:35):
I only want to ask a delicate question here. Why
would Turkey and Azerbijan want to escalate? And okay, they
decided to take zengiz Or Korida by force, let's imagine,
or maybe even capture the whole Armenia. Why do you
want to expunge in exile Russian diplomats from Azerbaijan and

(10:56):
lower the status of negotiations. How does that affect the
strategic operation? To the countrary, if you want the strategic
operation to be successful, you would probably want to hug
them to death and tell everybody that you have complete
and full understanding. That would be very Eastern, like, very

(11:16):
Turkey and as Herbijhon like this is what wise people
in the Central Asia do. And then there probably would
be you know, some public events with more media coverage
and deflection of things happening, and then all of a
sudden they wake up and the sengys Or corridor is

(11:37):
already taken. And when you start quarreling and start increasing
the degree of hatred and attack certain people, and only
then you go and conduct the operation, that's the route
for idiots. Neither is Urbijon. No Turkey leadership can pass
this test for an idiot. They're not. They're pretty digit

(12:00):
and smart usually in their decisions. So I did not
see them trying to do that. And for now we
have a tragedy of two dead Azerbijan citizens taken into
captivity in Russia and found dead, reported dead after and
to supposedly put in agents captured in Azerbijan. Where is that,

(12:20):
by the way, coming from all these news are coming,
All these rumors are coming from Russian military correspondent channels
who love to hype on things military who usually hype
it on. Look at this Azerbijan, That puny little country
is attacking Russia. Azerbaijan, you don't understand where you're going
to where Great Russia will trample you. And we also

(12:43):
have a lot of media in Ukraine screaming about these
events about I call it purple ray. As we discussed
that book before that this fantastic Azerbijan strike on Russia
will maybe split Russia into two halves, and our UAVs
and our spiderweb operation like, we'll finish it and everything

(13:04):
will be burning there from Finland to Vladivostak, and Russia
will crumble and will be so successful that will conduct
another decolonization forum, will take more money on the West
for that, and everybody will be conquered in Ukraine will
prevail again. Typical rhetoric of our Ukraine media. If we
talk about situation inside Ukraine, Alexi, a very significant strike

(13:30):
was conducted on targets in Ukraine by Russia night before
yesterday last night. They were attacks to but it appears
that they were trying to smudge and hush the consequence
of these attack in Ukraine. I'm talking about Ukraine media,

(13:51):
Ukraine leadership authorities. We lost one F sixteen repelling these
UAVs attacks. We lost the pilot, one of those precious
ones who knows English, who can who learned and started
to navigate this machine, who was piloting this pretty expensive vehicle.

(14:14):
That did cause Ukraine quite a lot in terms of
effort to obtain them. And they're being used to attack
Geranium or those Shahid UAVs that cost maybe three to
five thousand apiece, and there are so many UAVs that
one of them actually did damage the F sixteen, which
then fell out of the sky, and the option that

(14:36):
it might have been hit by our anti aircraft artillery
was discussed very briefly, and then it disappeared. And by
the way, it was a friend of this pilot who
was the first one shot by our air defense back
a while ago when they have sixteens just appeared on
the theater here. So what I also want to highlight

(14:57):
here is that for the first time we have some
old support for hero story. We talked a lot about
Ukraine not really propping up their heroes, but here we
have a whole story talking about the brief pilot shooting
down the targets. One of the targets did damage his plane,

(15:19):
and to prevent the plane from crashing onto the town nearby,
he drove it further, flew it further as far as
he could and was too late to catapult and he
perished with the crushing vehicle. It was actually surprising. What
can you say about both things? About the massive attack
the night before yesterday and this whole defense story with

(15:42):
a hero. Well, okay, Alexander. Russia, of course is conducting
three main areas of push on Ukraine. First is attempt
to crush and grind us on the front. And when
our correspondents were saying that Susia is not moving directly
to Kramators and they're giddy about it, they're forgetting to

(16:03):
understand that Russians do not need to take a township.
They basically need to destroy our army, and they prefer
not to fight in the city. They prefer to fight
outside of it. So that's what they're doing. When our
soldiers are gone, they'll just walk into the empty towns,
and they're trying to grind our resources and our military personnel,

(16:24):
and that's what they're doing. Second, trying to get Russia
out of international isolation and get Ukraine into isolation. For example,
if you take Kazan Forum, where a lot of guests
came from different countries to see Putin and Putin's intensive
contacts with Trump, we can see that Russia is rather
successful in getting itself out of the status of a

(16:48):
pariah because Russia actually also produces a lot of resources
with a little bit of help, but they do have
their own equipment and their own most mostly and their
own personnel, their own soldiers. In case of Ukraine, we
have some things manufactured here, but financial resources are almost
entirely supplied by the West. And what Russia is doing,

(17:13):
they're grinding down the quality of our troops because we
already are out of those who volunteered. We have a
lot of now those who are forcefully mobilized. And in
Russia they do have volunteers paid contractors, right but they're
still coming. And Ukraine without international help will be a

(17:34):
bankrupt We recently started to prove that by failing to
pay on certain things because we do not have money.
Well the chart, the vector is going down and eventually
it will hit the bottom. And the United States recently
paused their military supply right so, and the third is
Russian ability to conduct aerial warfare with Ukraine. Their capability

(17:55):
is significantly jumped. I wouldn't say it's now thousands, but
definitely hundreds of uvs attacking Ukraine. Ukraine is a big territory.
It's very difficult to cover it with air defense systems.
First of all, we don't have enough systems to cover
even if we get all the NATO vehicles here, it's
also going to be very expensive because you're going to

(18:17):
be wasting very expensive missiles to shut down something that's
worth of three and maybe five thousand dollars. As you mentioned,
that's why F sixteen's were being used to defend the skies.
And it's one of the modifications of F sixteen that
is specifically designed for aerial defense, and its main application
is not even to attack Russian jets in the sky.

(18:42):
Even though we had some of those episodes we even
succeeded in hitting as U thirty five's with it. And
what is happening. We are seeing the second or even
the third F sixteen getting destroyed in the sky of
Ukraine during repelling the attack of uvs and other vehicles
that Russian used to attack us. And imagine that deadly

(19:04):
soup in the sky of UAVs flying in F sixteen
is trying to destroy them. Our aerial defense systems also
shooting everything down. And that happens at night in the
night sky. Whether there are probably hundreds or at least
dozens of different targets, you're jumping from one to another.
You your air defense system are also working down from

(19:26):
the ground into the sky, and you're always exposed to
that risk. Knowing that some of your friends already died
from that fire. That puts additional stress. And given that
our pilots did not have too much time to practice
combined maneuvers at night, defending facilities, defending our territory from

(19:46):
those UAVs. It's a difficult task and our pilots are
learning it as the war ensues. I would give hero
medals of heroes to all of these pilots, so no
qualms about the pilots themselves. You have to have the
balls of steel to go there at night, under both
friendly and enemy fire to try to destroy it, and

(20:09):
you need to know how to manage the jet really
well in the dead of the night. You're being shot
at from the bottom, not directly at, but there is
a risk. There are these UAVs trying to find their targets,
and they are also your friends around in the same

(20:29):
F sixteen's rushing around destroying targets. So the fact that
the pilot got the medal, that got this award, I
think it's well deserved. The other story is what propaganda
is doing with it. Everything would have been good if
they did not use the phrase that he drove, he
flew the jet away from the peacefully sleeping city. It

(20:52):
was back in the Soviet Army days, back in the
sixties when, if you remember that, there was a song
about the pilot dying, trying to save the town and
flying his jet into the grounds as far as from
the township as he could and dying in the process heroically.
So using that story, which sixty years after it was invented,

(21:17):
and it was already used several times during this war.
They could have made a different version of it, They
could have verbed it differently, but it generally smells of
the propaganda from the Second World War times when Costello
piloted his plane into the enemy's column or other pilots

(21:41):
could not eject and tried to save their people on
the ground by smashing the plane into something further away
from them. So this story kind of stinks. It's this
propaganda story. You can maybe use it once, but don't
use it regularly. I can imagine that, Okay, maybe in

(22:01):
real life he indeed piloted the plane away. Maybe indeed
that was the thing that happened. He did direct it
away from the township below. But then you have to
reference that and say, we understand that this story was
sung in the songs. We know that it's one of
the classic stories of heroic pilots. But this is exactly

(22:24):
what happened here. And this is when you acknowledge both
and that communication has longer legs, and this is not
some rubber stamp. This then becomes a very proper communication.
And we do not have two skilled communicators and the
presidential cabinet now or in the military branches. All right,

(22:47):
I'll like to say about communication, this is indeed pulling apart.
It's eque emotional pulling apart of people who follow the
line of the front and are concerned. Everybody is following
the front line, the progress, what's happening there. Yet we

(23:07):
have rumors and different messages about, for example, Nibra Petrovski district.
In the morning, we got news that Russians incurred into
that district. In the evening, no they didn't, And the
situation regarding the battlefield is very peculiar. In this regard,
there is a lot of fog of war and a
lot of contradictory statements from our media. And my goal

(23:28):
here is to start with that direction that's on the
map near Velika and Nowsilka. Very interesting things are happening here,
alex Say, we see that, for example, you can see
such an arch that Russian troops are pushing towards Irka Iskra, Zirka, Zeparagia,

(23:50):
and they're making at the cauldron pincers encircling. And there
is another pincer motion here near the green area at
the junction of three districts, dank Petrovsk and Zaparagia. So
are there Russians in Nebra Petrovsk district? People will stop
believing the deep State maps, so we want your opinion.

(24:12):
And then over here there is more Russian presence near Ordashne.
So you I think, for the second time in my memory,
did I mention that we actually would be conducting fights
in certain villages and then would be making statements that know,
nothing's happening. Well, Alexander, I do not want to go

(24:33):
into details of this. I don't have extra data. But
what are these statements about. They're about nothing. Oh no,
they're about us losing territories, Alexey, Well, that's obvious. We
are losing territories regularly, daily, slowly, but we are losing
square kilometers dozens of square kilometers, and maybe it's bid
by bid, but we are losing it. And the core

(24:57):
meaning here is not in us losing the territories, but
in Russians grinding through our equipment and people getting to
the point where we cannot can no longer defend our territory,
and Russians will just walk because there'll be no defenders.
And this is one of the features of Russian military machine.
They destroyed their army resisting them. The second is attempt

(25:22):
to enchent our people with words. Here in Ukraine, deep
State shows the map saying hey, Russians are here, and
then speaker of administration comes out and says, no, they
have not. We're still defending it. Well, it's a matter
of days till they get it. Even if right they
did not enter it today, if we repulse them out,

(25:43):
but they'll be there in a day or two. They
are there. They are attacking this area. So we are
failing in delivering an exact message. And we unfortunately have
a t and of talking about successes and never talking
about losses. And of course there is some symbolic meaning

(26:08):
tied to that that Russians entered in Perpetrosk district. That
means that the district that has not been touched in
the previous eleven years of this war is now the
part of a theater of military action, and it does
have symbolic meaning. Indeed, they have touched upon the core
of the country that was untouchable before. Russians continuing to Nieper.

(26:33):
But the way you talk about it, the way you
present it to the media needs to be done differently.
And for example, when Russians plant their flag over some
township in Hipperpetrosk region, then it becomes a fact while
they're still tugging and fighting over certain streets and something

(26:55):
is not taken. It's maybe too early to talk about it.
But the politics of Russian Federation about Ukraine, does it
imply capture of Niplepetrov's District. No, they did not have
these goals, officially stated Alexei. Right, okay, So why would
they be going there? And even if they did go
there and cur there on the border, do you think

(27:17):
they'll continue going there further? And even if they continue further,
do they need Nipple Petro's district or are they trying
to encircle ours a parochia group to come at them
from the north, and this does make a reasonable military activity,
a military goal to go over the Zaparochia group in

(27:40):
the north and create another cauldron for which from which
we'll have to withdraw, and they probably would not be
conducting the full capture of Niplepetrov's district. There's a Parochia
district that probably will lead them to negotiations. But for
now we can see that both propagandas are rather blunt
on both sides, and Russia and the Ukrainian side, and

(28:02):
we have to clear that from all the noise and
fluff that they inject into the situation. I would suggest
to start to worry when they would actually plant the
flag and one of the districts and one of the
townships in Prepido's district. Until then, it's the war wards.
The pilot moved his machine from the township. The enemy

(28:22):
entered the village but was kicked out and would never
move in. And yet the village next to Assume was
already shelled with the field artillery. So the enemy is
somewhere really close. Yeah, we'll talk about Zuma now. Zynski
mentioned them today earlier. Since we do have the map open,
I want you to comment on this area near Lobkovie.

(28:47):
We all see the map, we can see how big
is the country and how small are these events in comparison.
But what actually here we see here is the base Kimenska,
the one that is in Zaparaji district. Here Russians cross
the river and they're already conducting fights over Kamenska. All right,

(29:11):
By the way, that's a good indicator, good not for Ukraine,
but good for analysis. It's pretty bad for Ukraine. So
here's a river and Russians were mentioned to conduct fights
of with Dvarishna, so implying that they crossed the river.
And that means that they cross the river from the
lower bank to the higher bank, because most of the

(29:31):
rivers they have to cross is crossing it from the
lower bank to the higher bank. In this area they
crossed another river, right, That means that Ukrainian troops failed
to hold the area that would be very easy to
defend with very favorable conditions for defense. And is it

(29:52):
the first time when Russians succeed in crossing the river, No,
it's not, and they're doing it in different parts of
the front. That is a very concerning indicate of the
quality of Ukraine defense because normally prepared troops, well managed
and well controlled, they did not allow the enemy to
cross natural barriers, natural boundaries, it's very easy to defend them.

(30:15):
That means that the advantages of the enemy are significant,
or our failures are so significant that at a distance
of about sixty kilometers they made a cross think twice,
and they created a small base on the other side
of the river, on the other bank. So that is
an indicator. It's difficult to push the front on ground,

(30:40):
but crossing the river and doing it in different areas
in the north east and in the south, that's a
definite indicator. And the second thing is the contour of
the map where you have smaller cauldrons on the flanks.

(31:01):
That tells you that there are detachments that are still
holding the front, but their neighbors are failing. So overall
our defense is suffering with the significant drawbacks that allows
our enemy to push through and encircle our detachments and
create pincers. This is the sign of a very low

(31:23):
quality of defense, implying not enough personnel, not enough equipment,
and very poor leadership, poor management. And when Cyrsky is
telling us look, we created the system, of course, and
now we'll go into counter offensive. And poor journalists who
do not understand things about military they are nodding their

(31:43):
heads and writing articles about counter offensive and new course.
I would allow myself to upset them a little. What
we can see on the map now, whether they are
cores or not, course doesn't matter. This is an indicator
of significant issues for the defending side that is failing

(32:10):
to defend very defendable areas. It means that our defense
is now acquiring the quality of apache defense in patches.
We cannot defend the whole line. Alexey, I think I
start to realize a few things. I'm following my emotions

(32:32):
of surprise. I heard today also another media in Ukraine
stating that we do not need trenches. Our troops need
to fight in foxholes. Russians do not use trenches, Ukrainians
do not use trenches. Everybody is fighting in foxholes because

(32:54):
this is the specificity of this war. There are drones, uvs.
Robotic things and supposedly some futuristic warfare happening, and people
who are not familiar with military work, with military detailed
specificity of operations, they perhaps can fall for that they

(33:16):
may start thinking, well, yeah, trench is more difficult to dig,
more difficult to maintain. Okay, we spend some money on them,
and yet we didn't get any trenches. So how do
we defend. We put everybody in foxholes one or two
per and let them have little dugouts. And this was

(33:36):
the message about Sumi District. Syrski was talking about that.
Saransky was talking about that, saying that we stopp Russians,
we hit them in the teeth and they're not attacking. Okay,
let's split that into five segments. Let's clarify and separate first,
in order to understand the whole message. You need the
whole speech. I did not listen to this one, and
it's difficult for me to discuss excerpts. It fair. Now,

(34:01):
foxhole is a trench. It's just a trench for one person.
The character of bad activities significantly changes right with the
presence of UEVS, and once per several months, a lot
of things change on the front. We evolved in the
last three years, and perhaps the Foxhall fight today makes sense,

(34:24):
but it has very poor relation to justifying the fact
that we did not build strategic fortifications for which we
spend money in that Summa district. By the way, to
put the dragon teeth right not too difficult. You can
have your foxholes or trenches. You just put dragon teeth

(34:45):
those concrete blocks around certain areas so enemy's equipment cannot go.
Yet we do not see enough of those. We did
not see the fortifications built. And then they're deflecting the
fact that they did not build something into Hey, we
do not need to use it. So they sent a
messenger who had to push that speech as an explanation

(35:08):
for why we do not have strategic defenses. But our viewers,
I want you to understand it's not about trenches. There
is a thing called the region of defense, and it
is built on fortification installations. The most simple ones is
the trench right or a foxhole, so you can shoot

(35:29):
from more or less comfortable position. You can use natural boundaries,
natural flows of terrain. You can use buildings, you can
use pipes, you can use underground facilities if you have them,
and that's how the complex system works. In this case,

(35:51):
Russians have a system of fire right, they have artillery,
and even if they have just uvs, they still need
to come close to the battlefront. Open the control station
work and then withdraw and if they're attacked they need
to be able to provide rapid evacuation. So this is
also some work and some management operations that need to

(36:13):
be conducted. They cannot place them anywhere everywhere. They need
to pick the right place. Also, while moving, you need
to provide some cover for your troops. You need to
put land mines, You need to make sure you control air.
Perhaps sometimes they need to cut some trees in the
forests if you're moving more discreetly. These are all engineering

(36:34):
works in the defense area. You can have very little fortification.
If this specific defense area implies very little fortifications. For example,
you have natural covers, natural terrain that helps you. But
you could have additional blockers. You can have those concrete
blocks on the roads. You can have land mines. You

(36:55):
can ask a question, why do we not use land
mines more extensively? Did we near sum Vilansky recently withdrew
ours from antimine agreement and what did we say? Why
did we do that? Because mult countries are actually putting
land mines on their borders and we cannot because we're
part of this convention. So in order to do that,

(37:18):
we withdrew from this convention, and Russians are putting their
land minds everywhere they want during the areas where we
have attack, where we have the war going, we can
put the land mines right, so we can ask ourselves
a question. Perhaps some special commission with top of the

(37:39):
military leadership in Ukraine, maybe they could have asked a question, Okay,
what are the landmine fortifications or land mine lines on
the front? Land minds need to be put in certain fashion, right.
You perhaps need some barbed wire, then land mines. Then
perhaps you need to have artillery that can be targeting

(37:59):
this area, or you'd be funneling enemy in a certain
path so they would be trying to avoid the land minds.
And there's a lot of planning, that's a lot of work.
That includes even if you didn't dig the trench, for example,
you still need to provide for movement on the roads,
daytime concealment, nighttime moves. All that a lot of money.

(38:19):
All that goes into the meaning of preparation of the
area of defense. And that did not happen in Summer district.
And there could be let's say, forty different ways to
conduct defensive operations to facilitate defensive fortifications work in that area.
And when somebody says, oh, we did not dig trenches,

(38:41):
well you can always come and ask what about the
other thirty nine because we did assign money to that,
we did plan for some things. People do not understand
that this is only a part of a bigger picture,
and they very often jump and bite on that part
that was given or shown to them. And civilians they
are not dumb. They feel that they're being deceived. They

(39:04):
just don't understand where are they being deceived. And that's
why I'm here telling you. It's you know, a very
simple comparison here. Imagine you come to a vehicle repair
facility with a very broken car. You have exhaust pipe
hanging on a thread, you have a fando bender, so
your front is all messed up, and they tell you

(39:25):
it'll cost you ten thousand dollars to fix things. And
then you come to pick it up a day later,
you see that they only pumped air in the rare
tire and they're saying, yeah, that's it, we're done, we
completed all the work. And that's roughly what's happening in
Sumi district, and that dialectic fight between trenches and foxholes.
This is just pumping the air into the rare tire

(39:48):
of a mostly damaged vehicle. I want to clarify here
that convention from which Ukraine withdrew about anti personnel minds.
If we think Lord, it means that nobody is going
to return any territories. There is not going to be
any offensive. We'll just put more land mines on the
front to try to hold Russians from advancing. Well, first

(40:12):
of all, it's easier to remove anti personal minds. Many
of them are very short lived up to self liquidation.
It's a rather difficult problem of mind sweeping. And in
an earlier a Minsk group before the Big War, we've

(40:32):
been calculating how much how long will it take to
mind sweep the entire Ukraine. So we calculated that if
you gether all the mind sweepers, all the professionals from
Europe and send them just to sweep all the mines
from the Donbas districts and in a smaller war theater
at that time, that'll take us about forty years. Now again,

(40:55):
what's happening now and the amount of unexploded ordnance this
through the roof. On the other hand, we do know
that Soviet Union actually conducted these works after the Second
World War in a very short time frame. They towed
all the military equipment from the fields and mind swept
and by the way, that's why armies usually after the

(41:17):
war did not come back immediately to their barracks and
are not getting dismissed. They actually tesked with closing and
cleaning and mind sweeping of different districts in different previously
for over areas. But you are correct noticing that this
is not a sign for counter offensive. And when the
country is leaving international convention for the arms that are

(41:41):
exclusively defensive, that tells you bullpark the story. Right. Of course,
you can put the land mines and then make the
passes through them for your troops for the counter offensive.
But in general that's a strong signal like everything that
we observed. All right, that's very specific answer, Thank you.

(42:04):
Lex say another question, many people are talking about perspectives
of negotiations. Piscov is saying putain speaker that there are
no negotiations. We do not know what the next round
will be. Kelk came out at the beginning of our stream.
It was there morning, I guess, and he's addressing recent
Pscal's commentary stating that Pisco's comments are orwellian and the

(42:29):
statement that United States and Russia are slow walking negotiations
are baseless. President Trump is the proponent of progress and
cease fire and immediate gathering at the table to discuss
issues of the war. Russia cannot sign peace deal while
they're still bombing civilian targets and Killer and Kiev. So

(42:51):
this is the quote from Kellik's statement. Do we have
any impression from this, any message on this that there's
nothing that can be renewed in terms of negotiations, Maybe
start a third round. Zelenski is demonstrating that he's not
going to waiver, and Russia is not liking that stance either.

(43:13):
They're pushing with their agenda. We's Alexander, No negotiations are
or can be meaningful until the end of summer autumn
phase of this warfare. Negotiations are continuing because prisoners of
war exchanged, the bodies are being returned, so their unofficial
conversations happening. And I can tell you they never stopped

(43:36):
even for a day since the beginning of this war,
since February back in twenty two, but official big negotiations. Yes,
they are paused, and both sides are using this current
state to try to propagate their own ideas, to push
their propaganda on people. And Trump's administration really did not

(43:59):
expect so much push back from both from Puddin and
Zelensky in regards to stopping this war. And by the way,
Trump is also being questioned, why you guys wasting our money,
wasting jets flying to these negotiations, trying to gather those
two sides there while none of them want to participate
in it or want to proceed with it. So Trump
also doesn't want to be present at the theaters where

(44:20):
the events where nothing is happening. He's usually trying to
push his brand. That's where I am. There's victory and
there's nothing. I don't think we should expect any changes
here until the end of autumn. Russia is trying to
push deeper into our territory, maybe get to Karmatorsk, maybe
capture some significant township, maybe capture a full Dannyetzk Zaparogi district.

(44:43):
And they're trying to achieve significant events on the front,
which would again rise the prices and the meanings of
this war and casualties that Ukraine is suffering. This is
one side for negotiations. There is a hope that Ukrainian
side might become less aspiring to return back full territories
and not take two certain positions on negotiations. But I

(45:05):
am doubtful. If Ukraine somehow succeeds in counter offensive activities,
then Zagainski will probably huff and puff and say why
should we sit down negotiate if we're successfully pushing Russians out. So,
Plus there is also aerial campaign. I think by autumn
Ukrainian citizens will be rather concerned with the results of

(45:27):
this aerial warfare. Plus we do not know what's going
to happen with American support. You're promised to support, but
we already know that it's not going to be enough.
So what will be the capabilities of Ukraine to continue
to be financially solvable while continuing to fight this big
war with Russia? And what will be our budget like

(45:47):
at the end of the fourth financial quarter, what will
be our ability about our ability to resist, to hold
the frontline, to counterattack. We do not have these details yet,
so we can only suppose and right now I'll just
suspect that it's wrong time for negotiations, and we should

(46:07):
not be realistically expecting any motion until the end of
this year. And it's good that they're exchanging bodies, that
they're returning prisoners of war, all that is fantastic, but
these events have very little relation to the ending of
this war. And while we're streaming our viewers, there are
some storm shadow rockets missiles launched towards Crimea had some

(46:32):
Russian targets there by Ukrainian side, So oh yeah, yeah, right, Alexander.
So that once again outlines the fact that Russia is
gathering their troops on the south, trying to capture some
territory there, and Crimea is their support territory. That's where
they stage all the equipment and troops, and that's why
Ukraine is intensifying their attacks on Crimea. Yesterday we were

(46:55):
taking out some of the air defense systems and today
with a leered approach, we're taking probably the warehouses and
equipment stockpiles. But Bullpark, it doesn't change situation for Ukraine
in this war. No single operation can affect the flow
of a war as large as this one, and only

(47:16):
gradual accumulation of successes can affect the flow of the
vector of this war. Even if Ukraine somehow manages to
very successfully hit big targets in Crimea, this might slow
down as a parogia offensive and for Russia right maybe
push the dates beyond what is planned. But there still
be a clash on the ground. There'll still be fight

(47:38):
for isolation of Ukraine from international aid and diplomacy, and
the results of aerial campaign are still to be seen
as Russians intensify their efforts to so I suspect real
negotiations unless some black swan or miracle happens, right, you
always have to reserve two percent for that. Real negotiations

(48:01):
likely will not commence until November. And the second matter
is what do we talk about? But made a statement
that we are supportive of negotiations, but the positions of
both countries are diameterally opposite. Pablo Shedden, one of the
philosophers that moved from Ukraine to Russia, recently made in
his statement notice that negotiations can occur when minimal positions

(48:26):
of both sides match. But in this situation that you
are in, even the minimal minimalistic positions for both sides
do not match. They do not coincide. The only thing
that they may agree about is the temporary ceasefire. But
this is an instrument, this is not a goal to
achieve some bigger goals. So and the bigger goals are
completely mismatching. So that actually is a situation that Trump's

(48:53):
administration is trying to still arrange negotiations some how through
all that noise. And that's why both Trump, both Putin
and Zelenska are making compliments to Trumps administration efforts while
both sides realize that likely nothing is going to move
until later phase of this war. All right, So, alex say,

(49:14):
let's imagine sees fire, We got to cease fire, and
what happens after? Right, Ukraine withdraws the troops from some
territories that Russia wants. Nobody will go for that, of
course they won't, right, So at maximum we can expect
maybe burned through lives of more Ukrainian soldiers upon striking

(49:35):
some pre agreement with Russia to leave certain territories, retreat
from them heroically while fighting for them. Alexandra, the idea
of this war is that this war is becoming more
and more a Trump's authority, and he is bearing some
degree of personal responsibility for continuation of this war because
of his effort to try to stop it, and some

(49:56):
He'll sayers are saying that everything in Ukraine is rather
serious and we need to escalate the efforts of trying
to stop this war. And it indicates that part of
Trump administration is actually experimenting with an idea of transferring
some weapons to Ukraine to hit Russia in some sensitive spots.

(50:19):
If they did not bring to themselves to the table
to demonstrate that listen, if America will continue supporting Ukraine,
it will hurt you that much. And if you do
not sit down and discuss, we will hurt you again.
This has not happened yet, but I can speak to
that in advance. If you want sure, LEXI proceed. Imagine

(50:40):
that Crimean Bridge, for example, is destroyed tomorrow and there
is no supply coming to the southern part of occupied Ukraine,
and there may be is a big crater in the
place of Kremlin and what Russia was in a much
worse position during this war. April of twenty two, shame
throughout the world, political isolation, best allies turn their backs

(51:01):
on them. People are fleeing Russia. Everybody is condemning Putin's
operation experts are interrupted. Even China is not supportive, very
difficult to continue production of military equipment. There is no mobilization.
Russian forces are minority on the front Hrdkov Harsuna operations
in Ukraine and what they clench their teeth. They conduct mobilization.

(51:26):
They figure out the situation on the front line, they
reinforce their positions, and they make significant decisions economically to
intensify manufacturing for the wartime. So they make some big
strategic decisions that allow them to move this liver in
their favor, and Kazan Summit became a culmination of that

(51:47):
when a lot of countries visited put in Russians. I
have mentioned that before Russians have a geopolitical weapon called
long will. We can argue about the use cases for
this and about how organized they are, but this exactly
is the case. When they order Trump's quality, Trump's skill.

(52:09):
Ukrainian government doesn't really Ukrainian state doesn't really participate in
this war as a state. There's a group of politicians
who usurped the power and who in occur in cohorts
with certain support groups, are conducting this warfare. There's a
bunch of people under the influence of propaganda that are
joining them. But majority of Ukrainians are not participating in

(52:32):
this war. When we have up to six million able
body men hiding from draft, right, that tells you something.
And Russia is different. Russia is caring about this war
as a sacred fight. They as a principal do not
see Ukraine part of the being part of the West.
And this is what we have on the weights. On

(52:53):
one side, there is Russia, a big country with big population,
that is seriously concerned about the result of this war,
that made strategic changes in their economy, in their manufacturing capabilities,
military industrial complex, mobilization. And on the other side, we
have a political group that captured and holds the power
in Ukraine with some support. They're getting money and they're

(53:14):
getting some weapons to conduct this war. But you know
that support may windle eventually and how long can you fight? Oh? Well,
I see that support may not even finish in the
foreseeable future. Well, I don't think it'll really stop. Recently
had what his name, Minister for Affairs of Germany, John Vuadevil,

(53:37):
and he's saying one day Ukraine will join NATO and
that's it. They recently had a summit of their NATO.
They stroke Ukraine out of it, of the agenda, no
formulations hidden, and shuffled outside. Zedansky game met a few
people and took a picture of Trump and showed some
of the photos that he likes to show. And then

(53:58):
German minister comes to Ukraine and says, if Russia thinks
that we will stop supporting and supplying, we will not.
And Zenansky is asking him also on cameras, please affect
those fellows in Buddha, Pest, Slovenians and Hungarians. They are
making some operations logistics difficult for US and thus therefore

(54:20):
helping Russia, and the minister is saying, sure, will help.
So it's interesting. While Trump was visiting them, everybody were
bowing to and supportive of his ideas. The moment he leaves,
it's like and that's saying, Kat leaves the house, Mice
go galore. They're singing that song again that they'll be

(54:43):
fighting with Russia, they'll be supporting Ukraine endlessly. It seems
to be a never ending story now, no loc Alexander.
It is pretty straightforward. If the story continues in perpetuity,
we know what's going to happen. Russia already said that
they are ready to fight for twenty years if necessary,
and they are like going to continue. What will happen
in Ukraine. You'll see the draft of students. You saw

(55:05):
some legal motions now that all these students will be
made to take ROTC training during the university days and
as the result, they'll end up being draftable. Yes, they
say they have to go through the first from the
first to the fourth year, somewhere in that window they
need to take ROTC classes. But you know it can

(55:25):
be tweaked down to the bottom of this frame and
on the first frame and the first year they take
ROTC and then you know, if somebody fails on their
exams with the exam results, they might capture them there
and say, you know, here's a fella from the drafting
Commission waiting for you, and you can, for example, sign
this contract and get these money, or if you don't

(55:49):
want to, will take you by your hands and lead
you gently to this bus over there and you will
serve without any contract. And that's how they can probably
get thirty to forty thousand people. Russia also does that.
Russia does with less enforcement. They just offer money and
they get an afterirty thousand per month. Then later in
Ukraine they'll get two young women and they'll try to

(56:14):
present it as it's a non frontline position. What you're
going to be afraid of? Who can pay your money?
And you will stay fighting in the warehousing facilities and
you can be drivers. And if they'll be asking that,
well wait a suck UAVs do strike these targets too, well,
you know, we are a country at war. Everybody have
to take risks, the boys and girls, and that's in

(56:35):
the future for Ukraine. That's why it may protract not
immedia not to finish this year, but you know in
three years, five years, when you until Ukraine runs out
of able bodies, willing or that they can find drafting
to fight this war. I think somewhere around when they
start to mobilize women, that's where it'll break. Finally, for

(56:56):
Zelenski Alexy, it seems to me that we are not
fully informed about some elements. It's my feeling. I don't
know what's happening there, but I'm noticing something Suddenly. Stephan
Chuk is talking about elections. First of all, elections, were
preparing the law that we will adopt. Of course we

(57:16):
are talking about conducting elections in the peacetime, not during
the active warfare work phase, because you know, when if
we are conducting elections, Russians may start attacking our precincts
in our voting locations. And we do want everybody to vote,

(57:36):
both Ukrainians at home, Ukrainians at the front, Ukrainians who
left the country. We need to make sure that we
somehow can account for Russian possible interference and Russians would
not affect the way we vote or the results of
this voting. So that kind of rang a bell in
my head. In the meantime, they're also trying to change
Sisky and do Merov Bizuglas as Shulget joined the opposition.

(58:00):
If Meera Franciski will not be removed, Smogard will also
be changed. So perhaps close positions to Sarnski will be
replaced by new people. And I'm thinking whether Serensky is
hiding his own cohorts, his own supportering fellaws for somebody
else who can be blamed for the losses, and perhaps
he will leave his position without elections. Oh no, Alexander,

(58:23):
I looked at the list of a new government. I
think he's putting very much closer people, if anything, into
this new cabinet. Julia Sridenka is one of the most
close people to Zdansky and his political group. So no,
I think he's just reinforcing his positions in the government,
and he is conducting these elections only with the hope

(58:44):
of winning again. He will not stop his play. It's
not in his interests. So with elections or without elections,
it will continue. By the way, if elections happen and
he somehow acquires his presidency again, he will only reinforce
his position to fight and to continue this war with Russia.
So elections are not Elections don't really affect this factor

(59:07):
of war. If you think that during warfare Ukraine can
vote for somebody bud Zelenski and put somebody else at
the helm, think again. I don't think it's realistic expectation. Oh,
that's an interesting rabbit hole, Alexei. I heard that from
people who supposedly are in the know, that there is
a prohibition among the pro Power group and the speakers

(59:31):
and the Parliament. It's verbotan to bring up the topic
of elections, and even social services do not really conduct
the polling in this direction. Yet when they get some money,
they do conduct very interesting research. This is of July
of twenty five and Sociates and Barometer did this one

(59:56):
and these are the results. What do you feel in
regards to Ukrainian power? Forty six point seven percent feel disappointment,
twenty six point six feel hope, Shame is felt by
twenty percent, anchor by almost seventeen percent, and condolences fifteen percent,
and a bunch of other smaller Another question, do we

(01:00:17):
need elections? If negotiations and with a temporary cease fire
and finishing off Marshall law in Ukraine? Do we need
to conduct these elections? In this case, basically the question
is do we need to conduct elections? And here we
are fifty seven point six percent are saying yes, we

(01:00:40):
need to run the elections, four percent think only local elections,
thirty three percent are saying that no, we need to
postpone elections until situation changes, and five percent inconclusive do
not have an opinion. So these two aspects I know
that let's say, can look at this question on the sociology.

(01:01:05):
I think this is a fantastic story that we're observing.
Here are the candidates, and of course Zelenski is leading
position number one and two different colors. Rating is the
first number is among everybody, the second number is among
those who already made their mind about elections. So Zelenski

(01:01:25):
is twenty one among everybody, thirty among those who know
whom they vote in these elections for Zalozni almost twenty
percent overall, twenty seven for those who already know how
they vote. And there's a bunch of other candidates, and
we also see an interesting line at the bottom twenty
five percent undecided and also about ten percent for the

(01:01:50):
other candidate. So among everybody, Zelozni has forty one percent popularity,
Zelenski twenty seven percent popularity. Among those who already know
who how they will vote, sixty percent supports illusioning, thirty
nine percent supports Zenanski. How and what do you say

(01:02:11):
about this sociology? We understand that sociology is not in
the limelight right now because it's an uncomfortable position for
Zenansk administration. But what do you say about the list
of candidates and these results? Well, okay, Alexander, if we
are to think that this is a truthful palling right,

(01:02:31):
Oh yeah, that's another factor I think if you gather
this idea together. It comes to one question whether there
can be an electoral miracle. Suddenly these twenty five percent
that are undecided gether and elect somebody who is not
in the list of the candidates. And it could be
somebody who is not in the list right now. But

(01:02:51):
he basically comes and says, Okay, now we're going to
do things differently somebody, right, let's not name names. A
miracle got to remain the miracle because it's uncalculable by
other means. Right, But I want to outline that the
size of the population that is rooting against this war
is very significant and its gigantic. Basically, whom do you

(01:03:11):
think will six million men vote for those who refuse
to be drafted to be on the registries list again?
Whom will the believers from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church vote?
There's a million of those different diasporas, whom they will
vote for? The ones who've been attacked with the current

(01:03:32):
politics in Ukraine. Everybody remembers how they were demoted to
Ukrainians of a second or third tier. So that candidate
who can be about something different than Zananskio's Illusionally, he
already has three different pillars that the candidate can rely on.
So basically those who are avoiding the draft, the Orthodox

(01:03:55):
religion believers, and those who feel their rights ignored in Ukraine.
So problem we have though is that current administration and
current sociological research groups cannot conduct and cannot release the
results of that true polling. And also people are afraid.

(01:04:19):
People don't know who's calling them. They don't want to
show what they really think. Even on the phone, you
don't know who's calling you. And even that polling shows
twenty five percent of undecided. So if you pick Zelensky,
that's continuation of war. If he picks the Lusiti or
any military candidate, that's another continuation of war. So whom

(01:04:40):
do you vote for? That's why an alternative candidate has
humongous chances to win these elections in Ukraine. And the
longer the war lasts, the higher is the chance of
anti war vote. And what do you think is pro
war candidates led by Zelenski? What do you think they're
going to do if such candidate appears. Of course they'll

(01:05:00):
let say, they'll try to stifle this candidate, sanctions, criminal cases,
prison right, So then Alexander, you can post a question,
what are the chances of such a person physically to
be elected and to reach the success in elections? Right, physically,
somebody needs to protect him? Then, all right, who are
these brief people Trump? We'll see how he's protecting Ukraine? Right?

(01:05:26):
Who else? That means that the person must have such
a huge people's support that he would always be surrounded
by five thousand supporters, would be catching FPV drones sent
at him. So there's got to be some messiah candidate,
I guess, And that would be an electoral miracle who
would be greeted at crossing the border, who would be

(01:05:49):
carried by crowds to Kiev and will be protected by
supporters in Kiev. But in the conditions of information field
information sources being controlled by Zennsky government, what are the
chances of this person getting this support when the whole
field information media will be working against him? Well, alex say,

(01:06:11):
as the Orthodox religion tells us, all the attacks on
true believers only reinforce them, right, So, and if you're
using the word messiya candidate, we can probably draw a
parallel with that, right Alexander. But we also know how
these messias usually end. Oh yeah, that we do right,

(01:06:32):
So it's possible that this game can be played, but
material and subjective factors are so screamingly against it that
they would needs to be a miracle, not in political
technology meaning of it, but you'd need a real miracle

(01:06:52):
for that candidate to prevail suddenly, unexpectedly. And the for
this miracle lies in two things. First, people need to
understand big dead end sign on continuing this war. They
need to really feel it, not just in their mind,

(01:07:13):
but they need to feel that this is not a
way to go. And there's got to be a chance
for that figure to gather this anti war impulse and
become the focal point of it. And the person needs
to demonstrate practical means how do you stop this war

(01:07:34):
or if the war ceasfire already achieved, how do you
preclude further hostilities? So the person would need to go
communicate with Putins government in Russia or whichever it'll be,
needs to go to China and negotiate with China. So basically,
people need to see that person shaking Putin's hand, shaking
sits in Pins hand, and shaking Trump's hand and everybody,

(01:07:54):
all these people also need to come out and say
that yeah, there'll be no new war. Is it technically possible, Yes,
it is possible if, of course Trump put an insige
in pin agree between themselves that this is the candidate
and we will protect him. Is it doable, Yeah, it
is technically doable. It's feasible. But it's going to be
a lie if we say that it's easy to organize,

(01:08:17):
that it's an easy way to do it. And by
the way, that candidate will never be reflected in sociological
polling in Ukraine, Zelensky will be winning overs ilutionaries. Illutionary
will be winning over Zelensky, and the miracle will be
a miracle because the candidate would not even be in
the polling, like it was in Romania. By the way,
when a candidate was not present in polling, he was

(01:08:38):
on the list for voting, but he was never in
the sociological poll and he's still won. So yeah, it
is possible, but that would be from the class of
true miracles. And if the history can find Kami Kazik,
who can you know, with a light heart and God
on his shoulders, try to go for it, and can

(01:09:01):
wish God spit to such a candidate, whether he will
achieve even the point to register in the election commission.
That will be a miracle if he gets there alive,
and he'll be a big target for all different parties
in Ukraine. And how much oppressed people can protect such
a candidate, I'm not even talking about them going to

(01:09:22):
taking into the streets in the country where the rights
of people are trampled and they're scared. It is difficult
to estimate. It definitely will not be in sociological polling,
alex say, I know one person who was not presented
in this polling, who is whom they continue trying to

(01:09:43):
assassinate his political career, his economic situation and maybe even
physical right. And he's being attacked by both Russians and
Banka Illustrat in Ukraine and administration of the president. There
there is such a person, right, yes, there is one.
And you know, let's put dots here, and I understand

(01:10:08):
the pregnant pause here. Let's uh yeah, Alexander, Let's wait
and see how it will unfold. End of the first hour.
M

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