War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1229: Why American Aid Will Not Help. Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Nicosia. Greetings to Alexandristovich who is connecting with us now
three minutes past nine. It is July seventh, or streaming
live bedewing everybody. Thank you for following us, for tracking
our conversations and projections, and in particular and overall it

(00:23):
does give us additional powers and inspires and perhaps we
gain a bit more hope when we communicate with you
when we hear your feedback. So I just want to
let you know you're all very appreciated here and you
can look at two QR codes on the left on
the right. You can use the one on the left

(00:43):
to post your question to us to our next stream.
You can also find and post this question on YouTube.
Alexander Shallist has also closed Telegram channel for subscribers and
Alexei Aristovich, which was also broadcasting this stream live. One

(01:05):
more thing I want to start with is the usual polling.
The question is today what is the Achilles Hill of
Zelenski's regime? Option number one bossification what became known as
this is when police and the military are drafting people
off the streets to the front. Option number two year

(01:29):
mark as a figure. Option number three crypto wallets of
close ones and option four there is no Achilles Hill.
Zelenski is like Duncan McLeod, undestructible. So, alex Sie, what
is your opinion from these four? Oh, Bussification hands down,

(01:49):
Bassification is the postponed crash of the regime. Perfect. We
have a lot of things to talk about today. It's
almost like new copia of different things happening, and different
military journalists also commenting what's happening? Five significant strikes this week.

(02:10):
Last week we started talking about that when there was
a hit at the Drafting Commission last week, just one,
and over this week there were already five hits. And
now the speakers of Drafting Commission is coming out and saying, well,
Russians want to destroy the documents, they want to stop
our mobilization. We will be decentralized, they will move it

(02:33):
to new locations. The Ukrainians see how treacherous put In is.
He is now bombing the drafting points. Why do you
think this is happening and how is the system reacting
to this new reality? You know, Alexander I was more
entertained by a lot of posts under these news. You

(02:55):
guys should also start bombing police departments and will highlight
you which ones and some other locations. So what we're
observing now amidst the people's reaction to it. Of course
we can say that these are scary Moscow chatbots who
jumped into the news in Ukraine and started posting all

(03:16):
that stuff. But in reality, even some military speakers are
concerned now to which people have we given an oath
if people in the comments under these news are hating
us openly. This once again highlights the fact that there
are two different realities in Ukraine. And the reality hooray

(03:42):
let's fight to the end of Ukrainians is supported by
several million people. The reality of those who are against
this solution and against this several million people, they're a
lot more. It's difficult to measure them though, because sociology

(04:03):
does not allow us to measure to conduct clean surveys
and understandable people do not want to be sent to
some trenches after saying truth and appalling and that's a
lot of people are also quiet on the net. Sometimes
we usually mostly hear the ones who are more propagandizing

(04:23):
fighting to the last Ukrainian. But we do have some
numbers to look at. We have six million Ukrainians who
refuse to refresh their data in the drafting commissions. Imagine
that the number, if it is correct, we can say
that it's probably one to six. That's the relation between

(04:44):
the first, the so called Proseilenski group versus the other group.
And when you can see the relation between the groups
and the comments under these news about attacks on drafting commission,
you can see how deep is the abyss between Zelenski
and his people and the people of Ukraine. He's got

(05:07):
a few people to rely on, but the majority do
not like where it's going to because he built a
system that now violates the rights of people, that treats
people as animals that you need to catch them on
the streets fresh meat to send on the front. Enormous,

(05:30):
g enormous size of corruption that is blooming under Zelenski,
and complete absence of official position of the party in
power to that corruption. They pretend that nothing touches or
nothing wors them, and they don't they try to not

(05:51):
react to anything happening with the drafting when all these
videos surfaces how people are getting beaten and thrown in
the buses. So this is not even an achilus hill.
This is the black hole of Zelenski's regime and everything
that he has built in the last three years. This
thing will end his regime. Undoubtedly, the question is when,

(06:11):
but definitely this is the crack that will finish off
his regime. And however much you influx money in the
pro Zelenski media, you cannot fight against the waves of
people reporting wholeheartedly and sending messages wholeheartedly about what's happening.

(06:33):
Why Russians took so long to start attacking these points,
I think, yeah, they took some time figuring out the
flows and the motions with the Ukrainian society, but I
think they found one now. And if they continue exacerbating
this crack between Ukrainian people and Ukrainian authorities, they will

(06:54):
be rather successful. That's why any instrument, in any tool
that can pry Znansky's government from Ukrainian people is very
beneficial to Russia. However, how even Vladimir Lenin said a
century ago, nobody can create a revolutionary situation. You can

(07:19):
spend however much money, you cannot create it, but it
would be twice dumber if observing the existing revolutionary situation,
we would not use it. That's why the situation itself.
The crisis situation will be created by the Drafting Commission.
In Ukrainian society at large, Russians are just abusing this situation,

(07:39):
using it to their benefit. Zelanski's government is screaming that
this is Russian syop, this is all syops. Don't look
at what's happening. One can ask a question, then, how
come if it's Russian syop, why is it affecting some
citizens and doesn't affect others? Why is it so selective?
How it's probably a new modification, Alex say, new version

(08:02):
of sile exactly right. Most people fall under that, and
there are a few narrow type of patriots who want
to continue fighting. And I think this will be the
trend that will finish the version and will ultimately be
done with it. What are we calling today the external

(08:24):
politics including war and other relations of Ukraine with other countries.
I think this crack will affect all of it. Okay,
lex Sie, Let's talk about the events happening in Ukraine
and what kind of different speakers representing Zleensky's authorities in
uniform not in uniform, coming out to the various TV

(08:49):
shows and are saying that people living next to drafting
commissions will be hating those drafting commissions because now there
are targets and everybody can be part of that target
if they live nearby. People who are getting bussified, who
are getting thrown in those buses, will also be upset
because the trend will likely intensify. And by the way, yeah,

(09:14):
this week there already were five uivs that hit drafting commissions,
and yet today drafting commission vineyards had done something ridiculous,
ridiculously extraordinary? Were extraordinary ridiculous? I like one certain Ukrainian

(09:37):
word line. Now let's play on this side. I supposed
when it all just started about a week ago, that
Zananski's government will now be presenting heroic drafting commissioners who
died and perished because of these attacks of Russia, showing
that listen, they're just like you are sitting at home
and you get missiles and uvs hitting your apartments. They

(10:00):
also get hit and they're just like you. So Zelenski
administration could have played it in favor of that big
conscription effort. The other opinion was that they likely will
start hiding drafting commissions behind the backs of civilians. They'll

(10:21):
be hiding it in sleeping quarters of cities. Then actually
there was a piece of news in Vinizza that they
indeed moved one of those drafting commissions to the sleeping
area of the town, and later it was removed as news.
Somebody probably got hit for that decision. But the fact remains,

(10:45):
what do you think will be the reaction of system
to all that you know, Alexander? According to Geneva Convention,
the use of civilian buildings, civilian citizens to protect me
literary objects is a war crime. The problem is that
our government Ukraine at large continues to do it for

(11:09):
quite a few years. One can say that when a
small David is fighting a big goliath, he doesn't have
much choice of how to survive. But then don't be
offended when you're compared with Hamas, because they are getting
upset when they're being compared with Hamas. And HAMAS is
a well known organization that keeps hiding their headquarters and

(11:29):
militant activities under hospitals, under children's daycare facilities and living
quarters of citizens. We can understand that, of course the
war situation is difficult, but at least you know, come
out and acknowledge that, yes, this is how we try

(11:49):
to survive. Because the enemy is strong, their intelligence is advanced,
it's difficult to hide our targets. That's why we need
to hide drafting commissions in between civilian targets. And meantime,
what we're seeing is a different reaction when they're appealing

(12:13):
to Geneva Convention for Russians violating things at the front,
but they're trying to hide their own flow, their own mistakes,
their own paths, to not be noticed and to evade
persecution and punishment. Alexie, would you play for one of

(12:34):
these sides and kind of play longer and give us
some technical analysis, you mean, Alexander, to suggest what the
drafting commission should do? No, no, no, not the drafting commissions,
but the authorities Zanski's government. What should they be doing?
Oh that yeah, they should probably disperse them. Maybe place
drafting commissions to the marketplaces, put them right between the

(12:59):
ladies selling potatoes and maybe put some potatoes in front
of them, right, or hide them in the dry cleaners.
You come to dry cleaners and boom, you get a
drafting note. You know, in Israel they have a detachment
named mista Aravim, which means becoming an Arab or looking

(13:19):
like an Arab. So I think we should be creating
one mister u Klanim here in Ukraine. So for Drafting Commission,
in order to not be spotted, they need to become
some of those evaders, you know, getting all the chats
where they get warnings that Drafting Commission is working here
and there, condemned Drafting Commission the loudest you know, online outlets,

(13:44):
and then, once infiltrated and comfortably in the system, suggest
to all the evaders to do a group crossing of
the western border somewhere and then round them up and
send them to the front there. I think sad funny,
but as it is, that's probably the most viable strategy
for them now. And you know, if you hear somebody

(14:08):
saying that, well, you know, we cannot surrender. We need
to fight to the warders of ninety one, the drafting
commissions would be the ones would be attacking that person saying,
what you said, surrender? Do you want to surrender? And
I suspect that very soon the Ukrainians will be posting
the locations of drafting commissions somewhere so Russians would be
able to attack it. More systemically what Russians did in

(14:33):
this case, they offered an option for Ukrainian people to
avenge for continuous diminishing of their rights, for continuous attacks
by the current authorities in power in Ukraine, and the
Drafting Commission as the interface of that system are getting

(14:55):
their butt swooped. I think they will have a chance
to perform this revenge on them. I think this is
one of the smartest moves that we've seen from Russia
in this war. That's probably one of the most lucky
moves that they've done throughout this whole war. You know,

(15:18):
the pr action target the ballistic missile at the Drafting
Commission next to you, and I would suspect there will
be a lot of Ukrainian citizens using this option to
dial and to transfer the location. Oh yeah, le say,
they already are. They definitely are supplying the information. What
am implying here that perhaps is a new campaign, starting

(15:39):
new phase of the war if we're witnessing the beginning
of it from the point of view of Russians, where
would be the final point of this new vector, Well,
the final spot would be for Ukrainian people to revolt
against the Ukrainian authorities and the ideal conclusion for Russians
would be if Ukrainian people would be inviting them as

(15:59):
protection from their current leadership. And this is the story
of seventeenth th eighteenth centuries, when Cossacks were so pissed
off at their way what was their leaders in Ukraine
that they basically invited Moscow to rule over them instead.
And Moscow is heading this way slowly, very crookedly, because

(16:23):
they have their own big issues with the way they
see the world. But they're somewhat gravitating to that vector,
and Ukrainian authorities are doing everything so that this factor
does not wather all right, So if we try to
understand this problem, how it will be reflected on the
actions of Zelenski himself. He is now rather quiet keeping

(16:46):
a mum. Today. I had a stream with port a message.
In a conversation with Starbar, we discussed the expectations from
the future meetings of those people who might attend. Alex say,
this statement is nonsensical and maybe we will get some money,

(17:11):
right if you translate that thing into a common language.
We discussed the expectations and money. It reminds I should
not probably use this word here. A certain audiotic activity. Right,

(17:32):
it's hard to whether all that's happening. And it's comical
sometimes if there will be a mass attack on Drafting Commission,
whether by uivs or missiles or other means, and I
will not be giving hints for a couple more things
that may disrupt the system entirely in Ukraine. I'll keep

(17:54):
quiet about that. But the leadership of Ukraine then has
to face very serious dilemma because everything that stands between
their historical end and Russians being in Kiev is the
work of the Drafting Commission, and they will be forced
to solve this problem, probably scare everybody with penalties, or

(18:22):
create a certain apps that block your phones and you
can unblock the phone only in the Drafting Commission somewhere
close to the frontline where you have to travel yourself.
I mean, it's comical, but they will have to probably
grant exclusive authorities to police or use additional resources to

(18:46):
disperse and to be able to reach deeper in the society.
And it's only police that might have it that maybe
help them. And of course forced mobilization will increase. They're
not grabbing people in the streets, but it will increase
and then the question would be in front of our
society then, But I'd like to say everybody will be

(19:13):
more angry and more united. Maybe. Well, listen, six hundred UAVs,
six hundred drafting commissions. Let's say if they shoot most
of them, you can still destroy fifty out of six hundred.
You continue with that for a couple of months, and
there'll be a full paralysis in the country in drafting

(19:34):
effort in a couple months. Right, police might be able
to support the system for half a year while they can,
but that's not even the main point. You imagine that
police will start grabbing people. Oh they already started, Yeah,
they do here and there, but not in mass right,
not completely. Instead of drafting commission, what will happen People

(19:59):
will stop turning to police for help for anything. They
will not be calling upon it because they come and
they pick you up and they draft you. And people
will not go to police because you can be drafted
and sent to the front. There that implies another consequence
that we suddenly will be facing a lot more criminality
out in the street. And then if it kind of

(20:28):
is bothersome to resist to a military drafting commission in
the country, that is at war, people do not like
police and they will probably be more active fighting against it,
and that's why I think this is one of the
most successful moves made by Russia recently. If we're talking
about Achilles Hill or some kind of that, this is

(20:51):
definitely one of them. Because you can create a different
system to draft people, but in the current Ukraine you
cannot make it work without some enforcement, so you will
have to bring people somewhere, and they likely will be

(21:12):
picking them up off the street now and sending them
directly to the troops, to the military, so Russians might
be attacking the training facilities. So it's hard to survive
the big, full scale warfare without air defense, but it's
much worse to live without brains. You can kind of
survive without air defense, but without brains it's hard. Today

(21:37):
Guardian is publishing an interesting caricature Lexy. I'm posting it
here in a video where Zelensky is on his knees
on his hunches trying to reach the missile on his shoulders.
Trump is sitting there holding a missile, so Zlanski cannot

(21:57):
really reach it, but motivates him and then on top
of Trump or is put in holding another caret for
Trump as a Nobel Price Nobel Peace Prize, as it
implies very specific caricature, but it tells a story. Do you,
in your estimation do you think their caricatures in Guardian

(22:20):
are quite remote from reality or they are close. Do
you mean if Trump wants to get Nobel Peace Prize,
he might Do you think it will affect his politics?
I don't think it will. Nobel Peace Prize maybe as
a personal motivation would have some effect on his actions,
but I don't think he is the person who makes

(22:42):
decisions only based on personal motivation. If he only had
personal motivation, he would not be arguing with Mask about
different things, and he is not following what Mask was suggesting.
So there are some disappointment moments accumulated around Trump's position

(23:07):
in office and people who actually voted for him, who
supported him, they are very different, their interests are somewhat different.
They unite, they can be united in the broad vectors,
but if you go in more detail, their nuanced and
it's difficult to satisfy everybody. So I don't think Nobel
Peace Price is the main motivation for Trump. Maybe one

(23:29):
of the motives, but definitely not the main or right, Zelenski,
the fact that he is trying to be as personable
and as nice as never and how should we put
it here? You know, cuddling and brown nosing and trying

(23:51):
to behave like a very obedient cat. I have a
cut at home. So comparing him with that, do you
think that's the right strategy? Because when Keller comes out
and starts to leak some parts of the conversation that
Luke he is expressing his condolences about Americans who died

(24:18):
in Texas, the youth, and then he kind of tries
to make it personable. The conversation apparently was even smaller
than with Putin, much shorter, And somehow during this conversation
he'd expressed condolences on this changed something with the messaders.

(24:41):
They've been essentially exchanging niceties and Znansky was trying to
be nice. So do you think Zenansky found a right
approach to Trump with his new behavior? All right, let's
start with the first conversation, Trump's and Putin's conversation. Some
of the evil tongues online and offline are saying that

(25:08):
put In told Trump to go f himself and said
that Zelenski is your client. You Trump are nodding at
Europe that Europe is supporting Zelensky. You are not different
from Europe because you're supporting him too, and he is
in his position in Ukraine normally because Europe and you

(25:29):
personally support him. Okay, let him stay, will try you
can try to use him to fight against us, and
we will continue fighting. And we have a big chunk
of this world supporting us, and perhaps China, and supposedly
there that caused some panic in the diplomatic circles, and

(25:50):
there are now information pieces discussed that China actually switched
to directly supporting Russia with some military equipment, meaning vehicles
and actual military stuff. How correct is that, we don't
know yet, but the statements coming from the corridors of

(26:12):
power are saying that this is so. We'll see in
the near future. One of the top diplomats in China
already made a statement that they cannot allow Russia to lose,
and supposedly that's why Trump was quite upset after conversation

(26:32):
with Putin, that he's upset with Putin. Now, after this,
Zelenski calls Trump, what can Trump tell him, perhaps in
an orderly fashion, I'm very upset with Putin. Zelenski cannot

(26:53):
and say yeah, I told you Putin is horrible, and
he is not going to stop. Zelenski is saying, yes,
that's why we need more arms, right, that's what he
would say. Trump perhaps can answer that I cannot give
you too much weaponry, but I'll give you some. But
I cannot give you too much. Zenski, if he was smarter,

(27:14):
he would have asked if this is a Vietnam variant,
and Trump would probably have told him that he has
prepared a chopper to pick you up of the Office
of the President's building, but he probably didn't. And they
probably talked about possibility for peace compromise, et cetera. And
Zelensky said I cannot agree to giving four districts otherwise
my rule is done with in Ukraine. Then Trump probably

(27:37):
answered that, okay, I'll give you some. I'll give you
some patriots, maybe ten thousand shells, some stuff, but we'll
be dwindling our support of that. It's a difficult world
to live in. So yeah, and that's likely what has transpired. Well,
the Dansky is being nice to Trump, now, okay, yeah,
he can probably beg for another line of support, financial

(28:00):
support for Ukraine. The problem is that Trump is holding
on supply lines that were not dedicated to Ukraine in
the last physical year. Not everything has reached Ukraine yet,
and by September they'll have to form a new budget
in the United States, and whether they'll be helped to
Ukraine in this budget, that's a big question. So, yeah,
that's kind of where it goes to. Yeah, radiocycon right,

(28:32):
So what should Zelenski do? In your opinion, I don't
think he has anything to do. Whatever he does now,
nothing would help. If he perhaps found heroic smart to
follow the path of political suicide and acknowledge the Russia
indeed occupied for districts and science and peace treaty based

(28:56):
on that history would probably praise him for this. Later
he stopped the biggest war and death and suffering of
his people at a terrible cost. But this was an
important decision. But that would be a political suicide for him,
and I don't think he's capable of that. That's why
they'll probably be dispersing drafting commissions and hospitals and underground facilities,

(29:19):
and they'll be continuously capturing people for the front to
make sure that they can still hold it and present
some resistance while Zeninsky is making his mind about what
to do. And it'll continue until something cracks, until something gives,
and there might be some resistance in throughout the whole

(29:39):
Ukraine against the police and Drafting Commission, and that's likely
future for the country. I was thinking of you yesterday, Alexei,
during the live stream when I was talking to our
subscribers I have it going out three times week, we

(30:00):
discussed news et cetera. And what I saw there first
is that you mentioned on many occasions that mobilization of
women is inevitable in Ukraine. But somehow the most recent

(30:20):
stream with Latinina was picked up by a lot of
other media heads, some military figures, some congressmen, Gillian Kaffidian,
more congressmen, the Center of Resistance to Misinformation, Kaveleenko. All

(30:43):
these people came out and said that, no, this is
not going to happen any Ukraine. Why am I thinking
about that? The situation is rather clear that what you
were talking about, what they're trying to dispel, they had
to pick up this wave to somehow ignite additional fire

(31:08):
under these topics. What was surprising for me is that
Kawlenka brought in a New Fashion. Excuse my language, and
I understand these are Ukrainians. There is some propaganda. I'm
not supporting that, but I can understand their with my mind.
When they write Putin and Russia with a small letter,

(31:30):
some people are saying that this is because they feel
this way. Whatever. That can be explained. Right, we are
at war with Putin and Russia. Putin because he is
not a personality but rather a symbol. Russia is not
as a country but as a menace, and that can
be explained. But when the representative of the Center of
Counting Misinformation is coming out and saying that Latinina is

(31:55):
a special funded person to bring certain ideas to the
liberal side of society, and Aristovitch is working for Ushua directly,
and he's writing both last names of yours and Latina
with a small letter, I was quite shocked about it.
What's your feedback about it? Well, I can express my
condolences to them and to that center and the like,

(32:19):
and I even pray for them sometimes because it's difficult
to be damaged in this world. And if your only
way to affect this reality is to write somebody's name
with a small letter, okay, I mean it's sad. But
if the threat to mobilize women is so unreal, why
on Sunday? It was on Sunday, it was a day off, right,

(32:42):
they should have been out on Monday. They started addressing it.
They came out of their day off and started expressing
these opinions. Simple question, why so much priority? Therefore I
feel pity for them, just the human pity. But their

(33:06):
destiny is rather sad and undesirable. That's my own comment
about that. And if putin will not reach them, they'll
probably be reached by those women whom they're trying to
mobilize and for those who are interested in this question.
On the technical side, given that there is a very

(33:29):
intensive campaign about drafting more people to Ukrainian military and
they're advertising that women are serving very actively. Before any mobilization,
there's usually a phase of popularizing certain things. Remember a
campaign about nineteen year olds between eighteen and twenty four

(33:52):
one million, or even this contract, here is the numbers
already who signed it. It's already gone the same flow
with women. Look how many of them are serving? Next
step would be look at how lucrative are the contracts.
Third step would be look at how many have already
assigned the contracts and how happy they are. And the
fourth would be, well, we're still missing people, were still

(34:16):
in danger. The enemies are getting to the parogio already.
Let's for some positions in the back, not in the
front line, for example, doctors or nurses, and then maybe
some of the deficit specialties that the front needs. They
won't be fighting, and we'll start adding them, start drafting them,

(34:36):
and then eventually the list grows, and then they diminish
the thresholds for health. Then there'll be some obligatory visits
to drafting commissions for women of certain age to get registered,
and then after that they'll probably be needing a certain

(34:58):
document to leave the country. And they may never even
call it a full mobilization. They may be trying to
avoid this label for as long as they can. But
if you look at the actions, it'll be a limited
mobilization of women. It'll be somewhat limited, but I can
guarantee you that that'll be there, and the first steps
are already seen, they're already happening. That popularization is everywhere

(35:21):
in the media. Not to go too far, Let's look
at the headlines of the Ukraine Strategic Command of Defense Forces.
And I took some screenshots from their lending page. Here
are some of them. For example, they're probably still there.

(35:53):
One second, I cannot find it here. You know, I
did a few screenshots. Let me go a different way,
let's just go. Do you think they did remove them? Yeah,

(36:13):
Alex say, we've seen that there was a charter, there
was come visit, come see, come sign a contract. There
were some happy faces, a ton of interviews that we
saw on those pages. And yeah, here it is when
some officials from Berlin comes out and says that women

(36:39):
need to be participating. Of course, there's a ton of legs.
And then when Arstovis says that they're attacking me. But
then here is Ukraine twenty four posting pictures and photos
of women fighting keep independent. Facing manpower shortage, Ukrainian Brigade

(36:59):
turns to women and first ever female recruitment drive. What else?
Motivated women are better than any unmotivated men, says Alena,
a droven operator. And here's a Strategic Command of Ukraine.

(37:19):
We're fighting. The heart of Ukraine is beating and more
we're fighting. Ukraine is fighting. More photos of women in
trenches or going through the training. Thank you every woman
who chose to defend the country. So why they're so
synchronous about it, right, and then all that attempt to

(37:41):
dispel what I mentioned on Sunday because probably there is
no mobilization right and what we're seeing is not true.
But there is an easy way for them to win
all the argument, right, you just write Latina and they
just stab it with a small letter, and yeah, I
think it'll also Piers. I think I wonder if that's

(38:04):
their calculation to piece of Russians too, because of the
use of Russian language without capitals. It's kind of sad,
but that's where we are. One more thing, don't forget
to click likes and subscribes and Press Secretary Levitt came
out in the press briefing and says that aid to

(38:27):
Ukraine is still frozen. Decision was made by Pentagon and
was supported by President Trump. She said that freezing of
military aid is not only about Ukraine. It's freezing of
different supplies from Pentagon to different allies, different countries. We're

(38:49):
just reverifying that we are in line of with our
current administration and our strategic goals of supporting certain efforts
and now hang on, I'll answer to that. Let me
think of non censored way to do it. Okay, So

(39:13):
not to go deeper into the political theology, but we
can say that modern power is done, is working in
such a fashion that it cannot not lie to its people.
That's why, of course they will not come out and
say we are not giving any a to Ukraine until
Zlansky comes to his senses and agrees to our terms.
We are what we're doing. And added, we have a

(39:36):
commission that will calculate and review the documents, and we
will have also a commission that will be checking this commission,
and they all will be walking the warehouses, counting the missiles.
And since samir Ca is a big country and we
have a lot of warehouses, and the flight from Miami

(39:59):
to see it can take easily seven hours, so you
can imagine how long it'll take them to calculate everything.
A warehouse in la a warehouse in Florida, a ware
house in New York. Right, it's a big country. You
can work for years doing that, and they will be
walking for years well or until the last helicopter leaves Ukraine.

(40:25):
With some of those Zelenski government falling off. It down,
trying to grab on it, putting a very thick point
in this element of history. So yeah, this is an excuse.
Aid will definitely continue, but it will be dwindling. It'll
be a pure vietnamization of this story, very slow dwindling

(40:47):
of aid to Ukraine. So you could not say untimely that,
oh you stopped supporting and dumped. What are they ashamed of?
Why they're not doing it? Oh, they're on A big
part of Americans do still support fighting with Ukraine. There
was recently an interesting poll. Let me see if I

(41:07):
can find it. It touched upon two topics, support to Ukraine,
giving arms and support to Zelenski. Thirty nine percent still
support Ukraine and America giving arms to Ukraine, and twenty
eight percent supports Zelenski, so eleven percent less. Basically, the

(41:31):
Republican voters already expressed their idea that Zelensky is an
untrusted figure. But thirty nine percent supporting Ukraine. That's a
significant amount four voters from ten. That's something to consider,
and that's why they cannot fully drop the eight Ukraine.
And along the way they'll be poisoning the well. Zelensky

(41:54):
will be becoming more and more toxic, and his people
around him, like your mug will be expressed in a
more toxic light, and then suddenly it'll turn that Zelenski
is not so brave, is not so smart. The West
has pumped Zelenski's image rather much in the recent years,

(42:15):
so it's difficult to dismantle at one swipe. But bit
by bit they'll get there. It just takes time. It
may take even a couple of years, but the end
is the same of that whole story. Now about your back,
it's very interesting, almost diagnosis again, there are different questions

(42:42):
and angles how you look at things. That was discussed
in X but still supposedly his account. He was talking
to people with emojis. People were laughing about that, and
then he started posting more reasonable posts, and today he
posts this so fiction number one one head says to

(43:05):
a very skeleton like figure, do push ups every time rasialize,
And then the second day one that skinny skeleton man
is not skinny anymore. He's very pumped. So your mark
is now going to that humor category. And the answers
to his meme are rather sharp. You're completely leffed up.

(43:26):
Give us different memes, oh man, you're dumb. Is there
a meme for zelenskull eyes and other memes of some
free people? Thousands of missiles fortifications victory in Ukrainian with
a very long nose, So users reacted to that. Do

(43:48):
you think that your mark position is getting weaker? Listen, Alexander.
The problem of Ukrainians is the main problem is that
they are rather rave on the front, they rather strong
in the back. But going to the language of philosophy,
they're completely helpless in the antology. Antology is the part

(44:11):
of philosophy that dwells on what exists in this world
and what doesn't exist in this world, what is and
what is not, And Ukrainians are rather weak in the anthology.
Antology is simple answering four questions. Who am I, Where
am I? What are my relations with that? Where I am?
And why is it all? I've been attacked for speech

(44:35):
that I made here on your stream about three weeks ago,
but that's the part that I touched. There's a good
Chechen saying that put everything in its right place. A
man is not the one who knows how to fight.
A man is the one who knows who his enemy is,
who knows who he is and who his enemy is.

(44:58):
He may not even need to lift anything stronger than
a fork in his life. And I've seen a lot
of brave people in my life. The toughest of them,
the strongest of them, has never fought in his life.
He's playing a violin, But I have never seen a
braver person. So what I wanted to say here is

(45:20):
that majority of Ukrainians are very weak in the anthology department,
and it is expressed in that they cannot acknowledge the
true reasons for this war. What were the terms the
conditions for it start and why is it going the
way it is? And they are working not on the

(45:46):
causes on the causation of this war, but they're just
reacting to things happening, and they're sitting in a symbolic
phase and satisfying themselves with the usual curses d jure
in the direction of Russia and also let's curse Trump
and group together and celebrate something together and support each other.

(46:08):
For example, recent shelling of Kiev. Right, Kiev is in smoke,
and if you look at the social media notes, this
is a parade of a heart ego. Everybody took it
to the web and expressed the set of a very
standard phrases. I know a lot of adult professional psychologists

(46:33):
who after this came out online and expressed exactly same templates.
That means that people are not just weak and helpless.
It means they never had that. They never had this
core and this is the main problem, not the war.
The war is like a bad weather. The war is
a normal part of human existence. Sometimes there is a harvest,

(46:56):
Sometimes there is no harvest. Sometimes there is war. It's
not too extraordinary. There is definitely at least one big
war for every generation, not counting dozens of smaller ones.
There were wars, There will be wars. There are wars.
The question is how do you reflect on that? And

(47:20):
a small person who completely lost himself and his life,
where in answers to these questions that we've mentioned, just
as a black hole is using the war as an
excuse to be pity, to be horrible, to not continue
personal growth because it's war. A small person, his freedom

(47:43):
and dignity live in the pause between event and his
reaction to that. Too many people allowed themselves a reactive
behavior without any desire or will to pause for half
a second and to think, what am I talking about?
And what am I doing and perhaps change that not
to be too reactive or only reactive and culmination on

(48:04):
this week, that was one of the clips that became
rather viral when Russian soldiers praying in the trench and
the grenade falls at his feet and blows him. He's dead,
blows him dead, and then Jesus Christ supposedly is taking
a picture of him from somewhere in clouds and saying

(48:25):
to Ukrainians, thank you for giving me a chance to
take that shot. What is in the heads of those
who are drawing this not even a second to reflect
on the things and what you're trying to express. Ethics
and logos were never strong size of Ukrainians. Pathos was

(48:45):
always there and now they're drowning in it. But it
doesn't let them stop and think. And I think this
is the main tragedy of this war. And they've been
screaming a lot of things and now they're slowly starting
to guess at one truth that yes, you can try

(49:10):
to use war to justify your horrible doings, sometimes borderline
satanic doings, because it's war, right. You can do whatever
you want to your enemies. You do not need to
self reflect or be disciplined mistakenly so, but they're discovering
a horrible thing and they start to understand it on
the intuitive level. They have not recognized on this, they

(49:33):
have not realized that fully because they have weakness in
this department. But they're figuring out that they allowed themselves everything,
but it doesn't work. They're not feeling any relief from
the existential horror from understanding that they're doing horrible things
and everything that you're doing every day, they're making these choices,

(49:57):
the choice of full idiocy, putting that heavy stone on
their neck individually and collectively that'll drown them. And they're
just starting to feel to get the gut feeling that
it doesn't work. And they're following the principles that you

(50:19):
always pray to your lords and to your gods and
they always forgive you, but they're realizing that nothing is
really forgiven. When they will be facing some prosecution at
the end of this, that's when they'll start understanding maybe something.
The most sensible ones are already feeling that that's where
they're going. And it's somewhat on the intuitive level for now.

(50:42):
I doubt it'll ever come to the cognizant level. The
man was getting wiser, not through his wits, but through
regular beatings. End of the first hour

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

The Herd with Colin Cowherd

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1229: Why American Aid Will Not Help. Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

The Herd with Colin Cowherd

All Episodes

War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1229: Why American Aid Will Not Help. Arestovych, Shelest.

Stuff You Should Know