War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1236: Ministers Changed. Trumps Ultimatum. Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Yeah, Hello, dear friends, guests and subscribers to my channel,
to the channel of alexiir Stowage. Alexi is joining us
now here in the stream. Hello Alexei, good evening. Thank
everybody for being so patient waiting for us. I know
we've been a little off schedule with this stream, and
huge thanks to all of you who support us in

(00:26):
streams and questions in direct messages. And we do have
a ton of things to discuss today. First, about the
format of our discussion. It's traditional. You do see a
couple of barcodes at the bottom. One next to Alexi
is the link to his School of Personal Growth, and
the one near me is a way to ask a

(00:47):
question that we can voice during the stream during our
Q and A session, and also, of course you can
ask the question in our live chat under the stream,
although it's better to put the question a little bit
before the stream. We've been gathering them for about three
days and let's discuss. We will connect the chat over

(01:09):
at the bottom of the show, so communication will be
at large. Will be discussing a lot of interesting things
today and basically, get ready. Let's start traditionally with our
usual question on my channel. It sounds like this, why
does the Lansky need new cabinet of ministers? And the

(01:32):
options to answer One he's hiding his tracks, Two he
wants to be liked by Trump. Three he's feeling the crumbling,
the destruction, and number four he's trying to paint everybody
with illegitimacy. So you have seen the list presented by

(01:58):
Ajamia Shmagald. Now is a minister of defense a long list?
What do you think it changes, Alexei? Well, if to
choose between these versions the options to answer, I think
the main thing is that he feels the crumbling of everything.
The main feature of this cabinet the minister's change is

(02:19):
minimization of ministries. The numbers are reduced. So when situation
gets out of control, what do we do? Or usually
limit the number of options to still be able to
control it. So like in this phone that I'm holding right,
there's a ton of options, probably using about five percent
of all the different things that the phone can do.

(02:42):
Most people use what they know, what they're familiar with,
the same thing as somebody who likes driving his old
car would not want to easily jump onto new IV
like Tesla and such. So why do you want to
simplify things when things become a little too complex, because
the management contour is usually matching the level of intellect,

(03:06):
the level of comprehension of the one who is running
the system, So they are getting ready of elements in
a system that they cannot understand or do not support.
For example, sometimes it's a good thing for we had
a Ministry of Youth and the Ministry of Sports, which
are essentially we're doing similar things and sports and cultural activities,

(03:28):
so they got rid of one of them. And otherwise
when they're shrinking other elements, some functional elements as well,
then it indicates that they sense the beginning of the end.
They sense the destruction is reaching a certain level that
it's difficult to manage, and they're trying to shrink. Regarding Shmagd,

(03:49):
it is not important that he is the Minister of
Defense now, but that the Minister of Defense will now
be leading He is a Minister of Defense in this
role will be leading negotiations with Russia. That gives them
an upper tunity. Zananski government an opportunity to say that look,
ex Prime Minister, Minister of Defense is now leading the
negotiations on our side, and you have some historian, like

(04:11):
some historian. That was a phrase coined by Ruta from EU.
And well, the fun fact is that he is a
historian himself, and he tried to laugh at some Midnski
on the Russian delegation. And this is a masked attempt
to laugh at representative leading Russian delegation. Some people treated

(04:32):
as masked racism of a sort that Russians are not
exactly people compared to us here in the EU. And
I think that is a thing that comes out here
and there that sticks out, and that's part of the
reasons for this war, all right, Alexi. So in the
context of manageability and control, here's a question to you.

(04:55):
Senensky came out today, he was talking to the phone
again and he talked about the following things. That Smithanion
will be leading Ukraine industrial military production complex, and he
outlined that the task of all the reshuffling is to
enhance and from forty percent manufactured by Ukraine of its

(05:16):
own arms for the war, that Ukraine should strive now
to reach fifty percent. Can you evaluate or give the
judgment to the statement, right, Alexander, there was a key
story related with the Ministry of industry that has not
taken wing. They've changed three ministers in hopes for it

(05:38):
to fly, but nothing happened. I remember how it was created.
I was against creating this ministry during the discussions about
national security because listen, we have four different organizations importing
an which are importing and exporting different arms into the country.

(06:00):
Because it creates four different options for different bodies and
friends to earn money, to get profits of different kinds
from corrupt sales. Well, look in Ukraine, we do have
four different organizations dealing in major production issues of equipment

(06:21):
for armed forces. Meantime, last year order paid for by
the country by the government is not fulfilled for fifty percent.
So you have a ton of organs, a ton of
branches of executive power sub branches responsible for delivering armaments
to Ukraine military. But it does not seem to work.

(06:44):
Zelensky is not talking about how poorly that order was fulfilled.
Two hundred and forty billion rivenas are under investigation. One
of the congressman recently published said that in their research

(07:05):
they discovered that it was up to two hundred and
forty billion hadeveness were paid were wired. Somebody got the money,
somebody maybe reinvested somewhere or withdrew them from the country,
But the army got zero from these amounts. And that's
like a traditional saying, seven nannies have a kid without

(07:27):
an eye. So concentration of power is a natural decision.
Minister of Defense is being combined with Minister of Technical
Industry Production and they take an ex prime minister who
has been at his position for five years. This is
one of the longest holders of this position, at least
in Ukraine's history, maybe even on a global scale. I

(07:49):
don't know if any other prime minister managed to stay
in power for over five years. So in hopes to
put a stop to the mass happening and Minister of
Defense and all the variety of different ministries around it,
they place Schmagali to run the processes. Silensky is avoiding
discussion about the number of amount of money lost over

(08:13):
the orders for military equipment because he's always presented only
as the victorious person, so he does not or ever
admit mistakes, and unfortunately that's why mistakes are being corrected
much later. If Zelnsky would have come out and acknowledged
that he made a mistake, Ukrainian people would have probably

(08:34):
forgiven him, but he's not doing that. He's saying that
we will be increasing the production of our armaments internally,
so we're not talking about the negatives. We're talking about
growing it from forty percent to fifty percent. Now, these
are the goals. This is a communication strategy. He is
lying and covering for it, is not naming real reasons

(08:55):
for his reshuffling, and he's playing a game of peace.
Are that we had forty percent now will shoot for
fifty percent of our own military equipment manufactured here in Ukraine.
So nothing generally changes in the country and it likely
won't like in the old anecdote that plumber who looked
at everything in Kremlin and said, yeah, you need to

(09:17):
change the whole system here, right, So very ineffective use
of money, very ineffective use of controls, and very ineffective
use of placing government contracts. So do you think Alexei
you might have had won in this situation. Oh, definitely,
he scored pretty well and he likely will be an

(09:39):
ambassador somewhere now. But the question remains how his ministry
transferred almost five billion dollars to different manufacturers who have
not delivered on this promises where did the money go? Right?
So two hundred and forty billion rivenas were paid by

(10:01):
Minister of Defense, they were dropped to the accounts of
the companies supposedly contractors, and nothing happened. Right, There is
no persecution, there is no investigation, There is no nothing
about that. Army is still waiting for equipment so direly
needed on the front, yet the money are somewhere. Could
you imagine comrade Stalin allowing somebody to survive after such

(10:24):
lack of delivery, or maybe even Putchin. I don't know
about Puttin. I think Stalin Alexi would probably have executed
them all summarily, even Putchin. He does not execute Alexander,
but he has several dozen of his generals under investigation.
Many of them are in jail, right right. Some of
them are already offering themselves in different suicides, a different

(10:47):
variety of those during his rule, right right. So there
is at least some pressure on them to deliver in Ukraine. Unfortunately,
we do not know how to control that, or do
not control it on purpose. Alexidi Klevitch so Syridenka, is
she a good prime minister? I don't know how good
of a prime minister she is, but definitely she's good
of a person just personally. She's a great character, how

(11:12):
professional she is. I have not heard attacks on her
for her previous work, but I don't know if she
will be able to step up and integrate a bunch
of different ministries and organizations in war times effectively. Marianna
Beezugla is already hinting that at this position she'll be

(11:33):
just singing the same songs that are sung by Yermak
save him from attending a few meetings. But we'll see
it's never that straightforward. We'll see how she will hold
her opinion. She does have her opinion. Nobody knows what
kind of a prime minister she'll be, and I don't
think she knows it herself as a human. As a person,

(11:55):
I have very positive experience with her, and I think
she's good and not to attack her here, but this
is a separate point. This is not about her. But
another thing I want to mention is that a lot
of people who were later found of corruption were very
nice in negotiating and communicating. So not to attack her.

(12:20):
We don't know how she'll be, but this is a
risk and a threat This is always a threat for
a bureaucrat to use his own position for personal gain.
Any politician, when you take a big position where they
can use it to their own advantage. Well, in life,
they're of course charming deep people reading hegel Faust, listening

(12:45):
to our casts, or mister even telling me how fascinated
they are with the depths of some discussions. Everything will
be good, will prevail, everything will be okay, And then
later you find that oops, they've stolen some money from
the army that is fighting for the lives of them
and their friends and families on the front. Well, Alexai,

(13:07):
not for themselves, right, as the sayings, not for yourself,
but for family and friends, exactly right, All right, guys,
don't forget to vote. What do you think about this
new cabinet of ministers. It's curious how and with what
side dishes will it be served at the end of
its term. And it's curious why Zelenski is looking to
change his government. Another thing. Saganski today in NEWSMACS gave

(13:33):
an interesting phrase commenting on the situation with war. He's
saying that Putin does not want to stop this war
because he is afraid that one point two million people
will come back from the front line to Russia and
they'll instigate a lot of turmoil in the country upon
their return. However, he is not talking about one million

(13:56):
strong army of Ukraine, which is a much high percentage
of ballpark population of the country. He's not talking about
that any risks related to that. And he's making another
vow in the direction of Trump that Trump will be
the one who will stop this war. Trump is not Biden.
Trump will figure out how to finish this war. So

(14:17):
do you think Trump can What is that about that
story of fakes that Trump supposedly as the Lensky to
attack Saint Petersburg and Moscow, that he's giving the Lensky
some tomahawks and special missiles, and then it evaporated under
the sun when Trump and his Press secretary Leavitt came

(14:39):
out and said no, nothing of the kind. And they're
saying that Trump is not on anybody's side and this
is not exactly his war. So can Trump finish this
war if he's not taking sides? Well, let's first of all, Alexandra,
talk about people coming back home from war. Even if

(15:00):
you're a victorious president who's been in power for a
few years. You do need to turn your brains on.
I understand it's a difficult process, but still at least
once a year. Now, let's look at the numbers in Russia.
The army has grown another time. Before that the army

(15:20):
was one million personnel strong, and now legally they can
recruit up to one point five millions. So imagine this
war ends with victory or loss, or neither victory nor loss.
He's saying that this group will go back to Russia.
So do you think that Putin will disband his army

(15:43):
immediately at the end of the war and they all
go home to smoke, drink and destroy whatever they see.
These are troops. They will very likely go to their dislocations.
They will have their own military police, They'll be doing
some post war work that needs to be done. There'll

(16:05):
be DA's office, there'll be FUSB controlling them. Of course,
there'll be some issues with post traumatic syndrome and some
other behavioral things. But it's very difficult to imagine that
Russia will somehow not be able to figure out what
to do with all these people coming back from war.
Soviet Union went through much bigger mobilization, getting reintegrated after

(16:30):
this war. Nobody remembers the difficult times of mass reintegration
after war, but they remember the cold summer of nineteen
fifty three when berry I let a lot of good
luck prisoners out. So Putin has a different problem. Putin
has an issue where does he raise more troops because

(16:50):
they need now to match that one point five million
on paper, But they need to recruit people to those detachments,
and they need to beef up their detachments, and the
borders will balty countries with Finland. So I did not
see that as a significant threat that these soldiers will,
upon return from the war in Ukraine, will go back

(17:12):
to Russia and change the government. No same thing as
in Ukraine. After troops return home, they will not change much.
Just don't even expect that. As for different information fikes, listen,
Trump's team is stitched from very different people, and there
are people of very different views and opinions in his team.

(17:35):
Many of them are not friendly. Some of them seriously
are at opposition to each other. For example, Mosk was
a member of that team for a while, but now
he is trying to create a third party. I'll go
the third way. There are some rumors that he was
even fighting with somebody, And all these scandals about Epstein
lists that Trump government promised to release and out they're

(17:56):
not releasing them. So just look at them, one can
deduce that everything in his team is rather difficult. Perhaps
you've noticed that Telsa Gabbard is not speaking too much recently.
She was one of the most active speakers in the
early times of his campaign and early government, but she's
nowhere to be seen mostly now. So there probably is

(18:20):
some part of his team that was pouring different leaks
in the media and the other part was actively resisting that,
and Trump was coming out and saying that, of course,
we have never promised that. And the second option what
could have had happened is that Lensken Jermark were spreading
these rumors. Wait a second, Alexi, why would they spread

(18:42):
these rumors to set up Trump? Only trying to be
liked by Trump? Don't they want the contracts and military
munitions to continue being supplied to Ukraine from States for
example the story with bombing of presidential palace in Syria.
This is a good marker. Now on the Middle East,

(19:03):
they'll be likely another conflict with different forces Turks and
Syrians and Europe supposedly supporting Syria somehow, so it will
likely be very not boring and NATO and arms will
have to be diverted to that conflict too. And of
course all these supplies to Ukraine promised that Europe will
pay for it, in America will then supply nothing turns

(19:26):
out to be actually happening. So Zilansky should be a
much milder in relation to Trump. Right, Oh, Alexander, you
should actually stop on this for a sec The understand
the elegance. Somebody invented that either Trump or somebody in
his team said that we are not going to supply
to Ukraine anything. Europe will pay money for that, and

(19:49):
we will sell them arms and will actually make money
on this. And of course his election base is mostly conservative,
most of the military industrial complex is owned by his elector,
and they're definitely greeting it with cheer. But they'll be
transferring these arms to NATO, and NATO will transfer these
arms to Ukraine. So if anything misgives, if anything misfires,

(20:13):
that's not on us, that's on NATO. Remember there was
time when I said, until America figures out how to
make money on this or they will never be really
supporting us now they figured it. But EU is taking
note France as saying, oh, no, we're not going to
pay for that, which is understandable. They were hoping to
sell their own arms, They have their own full cycle
of production. They were hoping to sell their own French

(20:35):
arms to Ukraine. Italy is saying we have no money.
Czech Republic whether their Peter Pohl are saying, well, you know,
we have other sources to support Ukraine when we don't
have dedicated money to do that. So EU suddenly has
no money to buy American arms. What about Germans, Alexey, Oh,
of course Germans. Germans are actively negotiating with America in

(20:58):
the trade of war, so not increase the inport percent
on European goods up to thirty percent in August. So
look at the bigger picture. They have not negotiated these
tariffs yet, and then they're already jumping in saying that, oh, absolutely,
we will buy tens of billions of dollars worth of

(21:19):
American military equipment to transfer to Ukraine while they have
not finished the trade war issues. This is a farce.
This is just a fakery, and some of the countries
already coming out in Europe saying we do not have money,
we cannot afford it. As for the countries of Middle East,
the borders of Turkey and Israel are coming closer the

(21:42):
areas of influence. So that you understand, after Asad's regime
collapse and Juveni rising to power in Israeli forces, they
got a bunch of training materials with the silhouettes of
Turkish equipment, military equipment now that they practice on. So
they are preparing to potential conflict. Now what's happening with

(22:05):
Drew's ethnicity who are on the border between Syria and Israel.
So these new authorities in Syria used to be considered terrorists,
are now attacking and taking away some of the freedoms
of these people. So Trump, who remember at some point
had announced that ten million dollar reward for the head

(22:28):
of new Syria ruler when he was treated as terrorist,
they are now shaking his hands, right. So now they're trying,
israel Is trying to figure out what are they doing
with the situation. They attacked about one hundred and sixty
seven targets, including General Command of Syrian Army live on

(22:49):
air with the hints that They also attacked different communication
outposts of Syrian army and are saying that guys, you
have to slow the attackers down, that Jews should not
be in danger, otherwise you will be facing more attribution
from US. Two divisions of Israel military are there in

(23:11):
the north ready to jump in. But behind Joanne is
definitely his back is definitely supported by Turkey. So everybody
are waiting for a proxy war between Israel and Turkey,
and from Turkey it will be a proxy war, but

(23:31):
for Israel it likely will be a conventional war. And
it's not a simple story like the United States will
have to figure a way out of this conflict for
both sides, because that potentially is a war between a
NATO member with the closest ally outside of NATO. So

(23:51):
what do Zenanski government do? They need to ring all
the bells to attract more attention, So let's play it out.
Trump weeks out in the morning and reads in the
news that he was telling Zelensky to attack Moscow and
Saint Petersburg in Russia. So he needs to come out
and say yes, I did, no, I did not, or
I need to make my mind. I have not made

(24:12):
my mind yet, So if he's saying no, I did
not never encourage him, then Ukrainian government can jump for
joy and say, listen, Trump is not really supporting us.
Otherwise Russia would have felt the pain and Putain would
have gone for negotiations. Right the other way, if Trump
comes out and says sure, yeah, you can attack whatever
you can, then they can say, oh, listen, we're great.

(24:34):
Where Trump is supporting us, We'll hit Russia where it
hurts and will force them to negotiate. And when Trump
says I have not made my mind, they can play
their cards saying, well, in reality, he actually allowed us
to he's just not talking about that in the open. Therefore,
they're forcing President of the United States to take position,
and they're trying to channel him to certain decisions or

(24:57):
at least make a decision, and they're doing very effective
pr They're buying a lot of articles in United States media.
An article in New York Times is about one hundred
hundred and fifty thousand dollars, And of course that's what
they're doing. They're paying money and low being for the
interest in the American media. That's how it works. So Alexei,

(25:18):
what is that super idea that Zanski talked today about
by the way, thank everybody for sticking with us. Do
not forget to click that like button. This is super
crucial to support us. What is that story? Let's it's
being repeated as a mantra of some sorts. And today

(25:39):
we hear that Russians will regret that they have not
agreed to a cease fire because we are now moving
this war to the territory of Russian Federation. And you know,
it's a good thing that they then somewhat slow down
after the initial statement. And I wanted to show to

(26:03):
our viewers that miracle of the miracles. This is an
interceptor drone. This is what it looks like. This is
a very semophallic object to attack all the geraniums and
other UAVs. And they initially propped it out as the
new solution. Now it's a little slower. They kind of

(26:24):
walking it back, saying that that purple rate doesn't quite
work as effective as expected. But now apparently there is
a new purple rate that we're now attacking Russian Federation.
Deep at home, what strategy it is, Alexander, This is
not strategy. This is what we are strong. What Ukraine
is strong? In public relations. We have a ton of

(26:46):
people manufacturing a bunch of UAVs, different models, different names.
In reality, there are only two or three big manufacturers
who are producing them on mass and supporting the army.
Everybody else just individual creations. So of course, different dealers
and leaders of public opinion coming out, the singers of

(27:10):
the unknown garage based industrial complex coming out and saying that,
of course, back two hundred years ago, we're saying that
we will be intercepting Russian UAVs with these interceptors. All
these leaders were going to public schools when I was
already supporting our industry to build up a new interceptor drome.

(27:35):
And they actually succeeded in creating a certain panic in
Russian zet channels, pro war channels that are panicking saying, wait,
wait a second, they may be actually now able to
intercept our stuff. And then Ukraine comes in again and says, oh,
wait a second, we're now getting tomahawks, so we'll be
hitting you at home, Russian enemies. And the next piece

(28:00):
of news likely they'll talk about it again. They talked
about it before, about some long range Ukrainian missile that
will fly far and hit Kremlin roof. But how Bavalshelan
recently mentioned in some of the interviews, Russians do not
know how to play the game of pr while Ukrainians

(28:21):
are really effective at it. Russians cannot even address these prs.
The militia Midvideo sometimes goes to Twitter to x and
writes some heavily censored posts. He doesn't censor them. The
media has to censor. And after that, what four hundred

(28:43):
five hundred uivs are flying to Ukraine. So Russians are
failing in public relations. They're just attacking the targets and
Ukrainians need somehow to Ukrainian government creates a view where
Ukrainian citizens, somehow, while weathering the attacks of Russia, we

(29:04):
do have ways to bomb and to attack them, and
actually we are winning. So we are somehow promised that
we'll be attacking Moscow, and then we're seeing that Russians
are attacking Ukraine throughout it's the whole territory. How to
connect these two things, it's unknown for me. So they're
trying to connect it with long range Ukrainian missiles, with

(29:27):
maybe destroying something in Kremlin. These are fantastic promises, and
for two weeks people will probably be happy about it.
They'll get some dopamine and they'll be saying that we're
great in bombing Russian Federation. Just a little more and
it'll bend and break and we will prevail our long
range uevs and the opinion of Russian economic analysts in

(29:49):
exile Lipsets will definitely put an end to Putin's economy
and his army. And then Ifzoraf will also come out
another talking head in immigration, so this will be our victory.
And this is the foam that that is created by
Sensky government in the media. In reality, there is a steamroller,
very primitive, very dumb, still corrupt, but it still rolls,

(30:13):
and it rolls very slow, very suboptimally non impressive for
a big vehicle like Russia is. They're not really effective.
But this is like about the Bayer and two hunters.
I don't need to run as a world champion. I
just need to run faster than you. So Russia all
they need to do is run one step faster than

(30:34):
Ukraine does and they're pretty good at it. Russia is
definitely not using its potential. Well. It could have benefitted
by being in better hands, but not likely going to
be in the near future. Ukraine, I don't think, has
been in good hands for a long time and cannot

(30:54):
get itself organized, as we can see during these war times,
over that cacophony of purple rays, as I was referring
to the literary work giving some hope to Ukrainian people,
over that foam of media and pr Russian steamroller is

(31:18):
still rolling, and we would prefer if we can maybe
somehow increase our production output for military articles and get
more aid from the West. Unfortunately, I don't think we
will be able as a country to get both. And
I think we already understand how will this war end?
If miracle will not happen because small corrupt dictatorship cannot win,

(31:41):
cannot prevail over a large corrupt dictatorship. That's it. That's
the whole story. And for us to systemically attack Russian
depth with our fire, with our means of attack, that
would start really diminishing their military output. That would have
been interesting. And we remember we had a story with

(32:04):
US attacking their oil refineries, right But it was a
very effective campaign. But have you heard that Russia ran
out of guests, ran out of kerosene. It was a
big problem. We brought down the output by twelve or
thirteen percent of this industry. This was outstanding military success
and what to achieve thirty forty percent. That's when you

(32:26):
start seeing some shortages and continue destruction regardless of their
attempts to fix it, and continue maybe growing this tempo
for about half a year, so that Russia would not
be able to call your influence on their industry. That
would have pressed Putyon to negotiate. Perhaps, but a new

(32:46):
one time attacks even if we managed to collapse some
roofs in Kremlin or even Putin, that will not lead
to anything effective. However, will probably put a big per
campaign around it. Now, another thing, what did Trump do
If he would have told Putting behind the scenes, led, listen,

(33:10):
you got fifty more days to fight to achieve whatever
you want to achieve, still in this campaign, but after that,
I'm coming with heavy weapons. If you're not stopping. That
would probably push put In to negotiate, because America has
ways to hurt Russia. Russia can be hurt by United
States with significant sanctions, and they can cause big systemic issues,

(33:32):
not fully destroyed, but cause pain. But Trump had said
that publicly, so if Putting now abeys that he loses
his face. So whatever Putin does, if he follows Trump's
ultimatum that he has those fifty days to make a decision,

(33:54):
he basically cannot follow because if he follows Trump's ultimate
he loses power, he loses his influence, So he cannot
directly do that. So Putin can only go forward, he
cannot go back. And I doubt now we have a
capacity to attack Russia more effectively than what we've done

(34:15):
with their refineries, which was a great success, but we
failed to continue pressing on this front, and second without
facing much risks from Ukraine, Putin is facing Trump's ultimatum
that also doesn't let him go back. So my statement here,

(34:36):
my expectation is his teamroller will likely continue going. Now
they're somewhat slow in their advance, which is understandable because
very often that's what's happening while they're aggregating more weapons
more arms on the front. So let's see if we
can actually continue the tempo of attacking Russian infrastructure somehow,

(35:02):
and if we can bring any of the long range
arms to the front. So we'll see how Putin will
fare regardless of their losses on the front. Ukraine. Unfortunately,
I do not see being capable of causing moral defeat
to Russia. Compared to twenty second when we did the

(35:26):
hark of operation success successfully there or pushed them from Hirsun.
I think Russia had passed through the most difficult moments
for themselves, and yeah, we were beating them at that
year rather well. So what they do have a thing
called long will. If you can see how Germans were

(35:47):
fighting with the Red Army, Germans were holding tactical success
to the end of war. Their jets were shooting down
their planes were shooting down more Russian planes than the
other way. Russian tanks were being decimated by German tanks
and the losses of Germany were much smaller than losses

(36:07):
of Red Army. Vermacht was definitely fighting more effectively, but
then strategically Russia still managed to win the war. Yes,
they've lost ten million people or however many account just
in their armed forces, but the war finished in the
destroyed Berlin. The history has a tendency of repeating itself. Yes,

(36:29):
the West is technically advanced, Ukrainians are very creative. With
the help of the West, They're causing significant losses to
Russian Federation. We Ukrainians can do that, and the West
can cause significant pain to Russia as sanctions and can
damage it successfully. And this is not going to be
an easy walk for Russia. This is definitely a bloody

(36:52):
grind where they lose tens of thousands on the way.
But the truth remains that Russia's to continues to press
and their steamroller continues to roll. And if you look
at the interviews of the most sober people in the
Ukrainian media field, Arraschmil for example, they're acknowledging that Russia
is more advanced in the tempo of production. We perhaps

(37:17):
succeed in certain tactical operations, but overall they have more
resource and they're just a little bit more effective than Ukraine,
fifteen to twenty percent more effective. And that's what they
achieve with the existence of their corrupt as it is
machine under Putin. And this is the long term perspective
of this war. Now, for those Ukrainians who want to

(37:39):
see some advances on the front, sure we will get
some arms. We likely will have some long range missiles
and they will likely be used successfully on Russia and
Russia will likely be screaming how did it happen that
Ukraine attacked Kremlin, But it does not change long term
trand because long term trends need to be changed by

(38:02):
very systemic efforts, which are not on the table for
Ukraine at its current leadership ways of management. And the
West is not going to fight directly with Russia. They
will be slapping sanctions on it, but sanctions are not
going to stop Russians. They will likely tighten their bells
by two more holes and likened attending daddy. The vodka

(38:24):
is more expensive. Now you'll drink less, Now you'll eat
less sun so they'll continue fighting. Very interesting nuanced comment.
Thank you, Alexei. And let's not leave this topic too far.
You've been bringing to the light the events of the
Second World War. Here here's an article from Luiv that

(38:49):
is ready to exchange the remnants of NKVD policemen from
Soviet Union to Ukraine and prisoners of war. They basically
dug up the Glory Hole how the Glory Hill how

(39:09):
it was called in the Soviet times. There is about
three hundred and fifty five soldiers of Soviet Army bird there.
So these remains were removed from that hill and they
are to be reburied somewhere. But then somebody had an
idea to exchange those remnants from Second World War to

(39:30):
alive Ukrainian soldiers. Yeah, that's bright in quotes idea, because
I would suspect that probably two thirds of these remnants
are Ukrainian soldiers from Soviet times because it was Ukrainian
Front that was liberating this area of war. That's exactly

(39:51):
why I do not like our Ukrainian project, because it's mortal,
it's martida. They are joking about death there. It's like
a cult of cemeteries, a cult of death. I understand that,
of course you need to appreciate the fallen warriors, but
the cult isn't making sure everybody is on their knees.

(40:14):
And if you do not go on the knees then
you will be penalty. You'll face penalties, and these laws
are being passed through our Congress. So meantime, we're digging
out the fallen soldiers. This is a wrong move. Even

(40:36):
mouche Hiden in Afghanistan, we're not destroying monuments to the fighters.
They destroyed some, but monument they never dug out the remnants.
So Levov, the area that lived on the money of
Russian tourists. They decided somehow that it makes sense to

(40:58):
dig out the remains of people who died liberating this
territory over eighty years ago in exchange for current Ukrainian fighters. Okay,
I mean, it's a great story to try to return
our people back, but to do that by these means,
it just shows how unethical this whole new anti Ukraine

(41:20):
project is inspired by Zenansky's government, Absolutely unethical. Russia very
often has excesses of the executors. When they torture our prisoners,
when they kill and rape and destroy their bodies, and

(41:41):
when they come back from prison weighing a third of
what they did before. That shows that Russian lower ranks
so definitely problematic. Well, a lot of post Soviet people
are somewhat damaged, but digging out the bodies of fallen

(42:02):
soldiers and try to exchange them for current soldiers or
remnants of those who died in this war, Russians have
not come to that level of law. I think we're
comparing very incomparable things now in Ukraine. They're trying to
fill in with some symbolism that Russian prison supervisors are

(42:26):
torturing Ukrainian prisoners of war, and they're presenting it as
if Putin's government is sanctioning it. I don't think they're
specifically sanctioning it. Yeah, they're responsible for it, but I
don't think they have time or attention to dedicate to
what's happening in those camps. However, when the mayor of
our city comes out, the leader of the party locally

(42:51):
supported by his congressmen supposedly and mayrit and nobody attacks
it for him. For it, whom are we giving new
arguments to? In your parliament? They opened the genocide exhibit
showing how Ukrainian insurgency army, what atrosities have they done

(43:14):
during the Second World War? So you are giving more
cards to those who started this exhibit? Right, Look, they
have done these things back in the day, and now
they're digging out the corpses of Soviet soldiers? Right? Is
it the best thing we can invent? Sometimes I think

(43:36):
some Ukrainian leaders are completely insane. The mayor of Ivana, Frankifs,
recently came out and said, what do people in Harkov understand?
They're probably not fully developed there. We here speak Ukrainian,
we have the religion, we support doubt down there in
hardkov they can't even proper understand our culture. I can
only ask a question here, how many research institutes were

(44:00):
in Hardkach before this war? More than twenty? Right space
military production? Those doctors of sciences, what do they understand? Right?
Will just teach you how to love motherland by only
speaking language. So that horrible provincialism mixed with some necrophiliac
cults is, unfortunately, I think the bane of our current

(44:22):
Ukrainian vector under his announced administration, that definitely does not
aid Ukraine to win this war. In winning this war,
it doesn't even lead us to a difficult stalemate because
these guys who have suggested these things for exchange, haven't
they thought that they gave the vocabulary to the Polish

(44:45):
side the same vocabulary, excumation, exchange of bodies, right, They
just don't see beyond a few steps. So, speaking of Poland,
Alexey Urban seems to be on the crusade against now.
They picked the case when a person had joined citizenship

(45:07):
of Hungary and Ukraine and he was killed by officers
of Drafting Commission, and they essentially started creating a case
for Ukraine not being able to join EU because they
are catching people by force, and Urban says that I

(45:29):
will go to Brussels and I will be insisting on
sanctions against the leadership of Ukraine because that is flourishing
under Zelenski's leadership. Right the nearest sanctions will likely be
to anti Moldova from Ukraine. Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia back

(45:51):
in the day signed an agreement that they will be
joining EU. Moldova did all the things they promised, and
Mayasandra is holding to the last moment, and Zedansky is
fighting against this. He's pressing all buttons and calling upon
all classes and everybody so that Moldova was not detached

(46:13):
from Ukraine. But Moldova will probably be detached from Ukraine
and will be adopted to EU separately. And that'll be
a huge signal that all Zedansky's aspirations to journey you
have failed without even starting. And I'm not even talking
about the demands of Ukrainian bureaucrats who are saying, let's

(46:35):
limit the movement of our people after this war, our people.
We do not limit our people's movements as EU while
we are a country at war, well after the war,
well after the war, we still need our people here.
Do you understand this is not acceptable, This is impossible
for EU to agree to these terms, and all these

(46:58):
European aspirations, they are about nothing, all these purple rays,
all of fakery that we create, all the pr things
we create in Ukraine. Therefore not Urban of course is
a big fan of this fantastical purple rais. And we're saying,
as the Hungarian side saying that it was a murder,
there is no official conclusion from the Ukrainian investigators and

(47:22):
they're just highlighting the statements for the recent article by
Kievan blogger how her beloved was recently captured and beaten up,
how drafting commission bus was found with the body inside.
So of course there are articles, there are accesses, and
Urban is using very resonance examples that resonate with the EU,

(47:46):
and he continues to hit where it cracks, where it's weak,
and they will likely continue this effort. This is not
even symbolic capital. This is a real death of a
person with Hungarian passport. And if you pick all the
other videos related to these excesses, remember on masks X

(48:10):
there was a video that got a lot of likes,
a lot of views of people being beaten and fighting
with Drafting Commission. That creates a narrative and that can
destroy any initiative, whatever initiative. You have native financial aid
up to space development and growing up some hedgehogs to

(48:33):
preserve their populations. You can come back and say, look
at what your drafting commission is doing. We cannot cooperate
with people like that, and our own bureaucrats are giving
a universal tool for anybody, both internally and externally, that
can be used against us. Even Russians starting hitting drafting

(48:56):
commissions now right, half of them wrote that or the
Russian bots probably, but the others are actually expressing their satisfaction.
There are Ukrainian citizens who are cheering enemies, attacks and
drafting commissions. This is a catastrophe for the country. Zelinsky
was melting, melting, and finally melted and hammered out the

(49:19):
unique instrument that can be used to attack his own
regime at the rights of church or religion, sanctions against
personal rights. Yeah, Drafting Commission is already under review. I
think it's in European Council somewhere. A couple of weeks
ago it was in the news that Ukraine is not

(49:43):
supposed to be treating people like that during drafting, so
we actually should have got there back a year ago.
But there was a research done, but there was a
lot of money pumped into this to deep popularize that
the task was to make a hero of Zelensky to
sure that Ukraine fights longer. Hungarians will definitely continue pumping

(50:05):
this topic, and however much Ukraine and armed forces would
be talking about how many Hungarians are serving and fighting
and dying for Ukraine. Yes, of course, but here is
the murder of a person. All right. If you have
not done so, please click like and subscribe, and let's

(50:26):
conclude the results of your voting for the question that
we posted at the beginning of the stream. Wherever you're
watching it, please do not forget to appreciate our work
on either alexis channel, Alexander's channel or here on a
private here station. It's important for YouTube so it understands

(50:47):
that people who are watching these materials, so it can
sort whom to suggest it to and whom to present
the links to the stream. So why does Zansk you
need new cabinet administers? The topic have split. That's interesting.
Fifteen percent think that he wants to be liked by Trump,
twenty two percent say that he is feeling the destruction,

(51:09):
twenty eight percent think that he is covering his tracks,
and thirty five percent he is trying to mark everybody
as illegitimate. So this is the strongest vote. What do
you say, Lexy, I don't think that it's about being
liked by Trump. Not likely. The voice is a split

(51:33):
because nobody is even demanding I think these days to
change government in Ukraine. Even Trump's administration is not supporting
that much as far as I understand, And the separation
of vote indicates how confusing this action is in the society.
Nobody understands why was it done. It was done with
some violations, not a parliament. The president replaced these people,

(51:59):
so again nobody is really interested in these details. And
the problem is that the power communicated it in a
way that citizens see against the law and this is
not done according to the process. But they also do
not understand the details and not really curious. Why why

(52:22):
did we move smuggled from prime minister to a minister
of defense? This is nonsense. For a prime minister to
become minister of defense, it needs to be communicated right,
because you've been a general director and now you're head
of a department. Why this is an interesting pirouette that
needs certain explanation. Horrible communication, first of all because they cannot. Second,

(52:46):
they don't care because the serfs will eat it anyway.
We're independent observers and now guessing why is that happening?
And some false options may be wrong options. They become
the leading meaning for this exchange or explained Whilish Core

(53:08):
Minister of health, who is a center of scandals, somehow
remains in his position. Lisavoy is still there. Another monster
we change somehow, Taraskremen, who is engaged in a lot
of scandals, but who is marked and tarred by a

(53:28):
lot more scandals and not less at least is still
in power wise definition, who is also being prosecuted under
some corruption cases going to Brussels. No communication, nobody explains anything,
so probably not respecting their own people. Ukrainian power doesn't

(53:52):
really want to communicate or try to create a pretense
of visibility, because I think everything was brought down to
that fantastical purple ray. We're sending tomahaws to Moscow and
people exhaled in the next morning. They'll get enough dopament
the next morning, and next morning they'll get a bit
more doperman end of the first hour

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

The Herd with Colin Cowherd

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1236: Ministers Changed. Trumps Ultimatum. Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

The Herd with Colin Cowherd

All Episodes

War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1236: Ministers Changed. Trumps Ultimatum. Arestovych, Shelest.

Stuff You Should Know