War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1243: Why American Aid Will Not Help. Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
High viewers of privateer station. We are traveling the next
couple of weeks, so the quality of audio will be
a little less and the streams will likely be a
bit shorter. Hello, dear friends, guests and subscribers of my channel,
also the channel of alexeiir Stowage. We have a live stream.
Alexei is online with us. Good evening, Good evening everybody.

(00:26):
Thank everybody that despite all the sanctions, all the prohibitions,
all the new things and news and things coming out
of Kiev from Zencek administration. Thank you for staying with us.
Don't forget to click the like button or is a

(00:46):
ton of events we'll try to fit in today's stream.
A couple words about the format of our stream. First
of all, some house hold items. There are two barcodes
underneath us. One under Alexi is linked to his School
of Personal Growth. The other one under me is a
place where you can ask questions of us that we

(01:08):
can address during the next stream. Of course, we will
voice all the questions that you guys have requested in advance,
as well as in YouTube and in my personal closed community,
So anyway use it in the future. This is a
good way, good venue. To ask questions and try to

(01:29):
get things answered for yourself. Today our poll sounds like this,
who will win in the war of special services in
Ukraine National Security Agency and their protectors from United States?
From Democratic Party Ukrainian Security Services and resilience can Yermak?
Trump will expel both or option number four put in

(01:53):
will prevail. So with these options, this is like an
indicator of our internal circus fourth year of war. But
apparently we have big issues between our security agencies. Alex say,
what can you say about that? Oh? Yeah, I think
in a national security service of Ukraine there are definitely

(02:14):
some fat cats, but I think the Danska administration is
really using it and using the opportunity to destroy them.
Counter Intel agency is really taking some spies around this agency,
and everybody, I guess is piling up to try to
topple them and get rid of some of their influants. Right,

(02:37):
ale I said, most people forget about Jidanshov who is
walking under bail, and they're forgetting about some managers who
were found to be involved in corrupt schemes. Well, right, Alexander,
But somebody did not forget about that, right. National Agency
of Security revealed itself to be ineffective. Apparently looking at

(03:01):
the formal science, it's a structure for external management of Ukraine.
On one hand, every honest Ukrainian can be happy that
this structure exists, as a lot of Ukrainian organs organizations
do not manage the country effectively. However, this is not

(03:23):
exactly an effective structure because even though it is designed
to be managed externally, it was staffed with Ukrainians and
they got themselves stuck in a bunch of scandals. And
the fact that all this anti corruption effect hidden under
this organization was had managed to get corrupted. In the

(03:46):
shortest possible terms, what can I say here, I think
it's understandable. I think this agency probably needs to be
done with, and this is one of the cases that
the Office of the President wants to get rid of them.
But I would agree here in line of getting rid
of ineffective structures. On one hand, all of the active

(04:09):
structures today investigative and security. They adhere to the orders
of President Zelenski's office, and this National Security agency was
supposed to monitor them. However, they became much less effective
than they were designed to be. So they're trying to
get rid of them now. So here's a question, where

(04:30):
do we find another structure that would be effective and
could have been monitoring the work of the others. Short
answer is nowhere. And the Ukrainians were fighting so much
for the freedom that it seems like they're going in
the direction of staying without any freedoms. Today we basically
have presidential office that is not limited by anything. They

(04:54):
already were going in that direction, and when the war
broke out, their power became total. It is a corrupt
dictatorship in its essence. There was significant hope on these
monitoring agencies monitoring control functions over Ukraine that our allies

(05:16):
would be watching over us. However, our allies, both Biden's
Democratics groups and Trump's people, unfortunately turned out to be spineless.
They have a ton of materials about Zenansky, against Sedansky
and his corrupt team, but they're not using them. Not

(05:37):
to cause more disturbances, I guess. And of course one
can say that heavenly Father is watching over everything, but
that only leaves us with the higher justice, that there
is no real justice in this world and we will
have to wait for higher justice for decades, right, ale say,
Some people perhaps will not even leave to see that. Yeah, sorry, Alexander,

(06:00):
I do not have anything of consolation to say in
this regard. All right, there are two possible vectors of
solution in in relation to what's happening. So the remnants
of this national security agency whose leader went to Britain,
not sure if he came back yet or not. A

(06:21):
lot of people are going to Britain these days, a
bunch of Ukrainian celebrities, especially recently there was a USIX
fight and some battalion commanders from our social media and
a bunch of other celebrities were visiting London. But what's
going back to our two options here? Having suffered a

(06:44):
significant blow on anti corruption system, it will start to
spew compromising materials about Zelensky and everybody else as a pushback.
And the second option, everything will lie under President's office
and it will be the country run by Yermak and Zelensky.

(07:05):
Which version do you think is more preferable. Well, let's
first of all dispel the illusion that the country is
under year mark. The country is not under yourmuck. The
country is under Zelenski. Trust me, I know there are
issues that Zelensky is not even letting your mark to
look at, and it's easier people like to point fingers

(07:28):
at your muk. He's a significant figure. But trust me,
every decision at the end is done by Zelensky, is
made by Zelensky. And National Agency of Security was compromised
and was in super cozy relations with Zelenski's office even
a couple of years before this war started. So during

(07:48):
war it was devoured completely as jolly for breakfast. And
I do not see them posting any compromising materials about anyone,
only if they agree with the office of Zelensky IX
for some leniency and some money. That's why I'm not
seeing them being active in this vector. In order for
them to become active with compromising materials, they need to

(08:10):
get a serious push from Americans. Will they do that
If they are not realizing they are already existing materials
and states, why would they push on this agency. So
I do not see that as an opportunity. Unfortunately, Okay,

(08:31):
let's see then it looks like we're stuck with the
path of dictatorship for Ukraine. Yeah, indeed, it's already here
for the last three years. I think pretty heavily set
dictatorship with all the significant features. So there is no hope.
There's no hope in anything. There is some hope, Alexander,

(08:54):
to the end of this war. However, there may be
some resentiment that can bring even worse elements to the
top of society in our country. We should have been
fighting for our freedom in a bit different fashion to
get this result at the end. And it's not even

(09:14):
the end, it's more like towards the middle. Well, how
do you mean the middle, oh, Alexander, It's a middle
of a very very long story. At some time, probably
twenty thirty five, will look back and say, okay, this
was the cycle, but for now we're still long way
away from the end of it. Ten more years you

(09:35):
mean with Zelenski, Oh, Zelenski or his follower Zelensky may
leave in twenty six twenty seven, doesn't mean that Democrats
will come, the ones who care about the rights of humans.
They likely will be brown red tint of the next
leadership in Ukraine, and that might become even worse. There'll

(09:55):
be more likely of the fascist type government. Sorry, nationalist
type government, but in common parlance that's what we call fascists.
And they're not exactly hiding their faces now. The other
thing is that it will not stay for long. Ukrainians
will likely get rid of that, but even those year

(10:18):
and a half that they will stay in power will
be pretty bright and eventful. Look we're saying here this
is impossible. The West will not support that. But look
at whom the West is supporting in Syria. Why don't
they support somebody like that in Ukraine. Yeah, Julianea is
quite a character. There are more new details coming out

(10:42):
about this operation on the territory of Dru's population or
they were changing uniforms called somebody how reveal the details
of the whole operation, which is horrible under the enemy's flag.
Jihad continues despite the change of leadership. So let's go

(11:06):
back to politics. Why do you think it will be
sticking with the red brown path for Ukraine in the future.
A lot of people, and let me clarify here, a
lot of people draw parallels in our case with the
beginning of the past century, all these Petluras Karapatski's situations,

(11:27):
all that motion that was happening in Ukraine, well described
by Bulgakov, by the way, and many people I think
are correct comparing it. It did not last for too
long in history. It somehow outlined a significant path to
our sovereignty. But in years, it didn't last long and
it didn't lead to fascism. Why do you think it

(11:48):
may lead to fascism now? Oh, they just ran out
of steam. If we had two more years those governments
in early twentieth century, they would have gotten to it.
Red because the leftists are coming around is the color
of the fascist right, So fascist leftist socialists are coming in.
This will be an explosive mixture of leftism with the fascism.

(12:15):
National socialism right, there'll be social nationalism or national socialism,
whatever you call it. As one friend of mine said, however,
you kick the stool out of those leaders, they will
still be national socialist and it will be longer. Because

(12:37):
back in the twentieth century we did not get as
much help as we are getting now. Ukraine exists because
of this help. By itself. It's incapable, neither demographically, nor economically,
nor socially no managerially, to stay afloat for too long.
Look at Southern Vietnam. How many years did they resist?

(12:59):
Even after Americans withdrew for quite a while. So likely
dessertation will be mirroring that here in Ukraine. Also, Russia
is not in the best shape. Russia is poorly managed,
their leaders are not too talented, and the war changed
its character very significantly. But we're now in some sort

(13:24):
of positional fighting like in the First World War, where
it may take you two months and thousands of lives
to push the front by a couple hundred yards. While
in Ukraine in the nineteen twenties there was a war
of maneuver It was a civil conflict, but it was

(13:44):
very maneuverable. The whole success of Machnoo describes outlines what
kind of war was that very fast, very high maneuvered
rates in the depth of the enemy. So all the
processes I see will be taking time, will be rather slow.
And we, unfortunately are seeing a lot of red brownish

(14:06):
trends rising their heads in Ukraine. And I feel very
sorry for Ukrainians who live in the country. Some people
apparently feel themselves okay, they can leave the country to
see the fight of Usiak and United Kingdom, but most
of Ukrainians don't. Alexei, why did they sanction U the Latin?

(14:29):
How simple? They want to cut her streams propagation in Ukraine.
It doesn't help people will continue watching it through VPNs
and other means. People cannot make a step back and
see how it is being viewed from outside a collection
of gnomes that's National Security Office. They're sitting thinking why

(14:54):
do they need to sanction latin in a shealist and
aristoge And apparently our three have done a ton of
crimes against Ukraine, and most of our crimes can be
described as us not treating the Supreme leader with given piety.

(15:15):
You know, funny thing Blashev after I was sanctioned and
you were sanctioned. I think he also after seeing us
attacked by Zinsky government, he went out with criticizing us
a lot, right, and then his karma caught him and
bid him in the butt. Yeah, he is not too
smart of a person. And Withsdnsky government, however deep you look,

(15:38):
it won't get you where you want to. And the
thing is before you and I were sanctioned, Parashenka was
sanctioned first, and given the depth at which he is
performing these oral praise of Zelensky, he's still gotten into
that sanctioned list. He's basically saying exactly opposite of what

(16:02):
we are saying. We're criticizing Ukrainian government. He is praising it.
So sanctions, in my view, have nothing to do with
what you are saying about Ukraine. Whether they see you
working for Moscow, working for United States, working for anybody else.
This is an instrument the way they see it, is
an instrument to fight with opposition. And there are several

(16:25):
interesting statements about Zelensky from Great Britain that outline that
Zelinsky destroyed political opposition. And you could see this week
some of these articles starting to get gain momentum in
the Western media. They're actually pretty accurate about the reality.
Alex say Hirsh. What does it mean that they wrote

(16:50):
that Zelensky might be removed by force and the Illusiony
might be placed instead of him. Well, that's one of
the options. It's been discussed for a while in Ukraine
that Zehanski will be removed by force, not because we
have to use force, but because he doesn't want to
live on his own. And yeah, they can just pick

(17:11):
time when he'll be visiting the front or you know,
ac can explode. But what then, Okay, resolusion is in power.
Suddenly we have higher value placed on the military, many
of whom are not specifically too talented. They know how

(17:31):
to operate on the front, but they're not talented in
the civilian and peaceful sense. In political sense, but they
will have to be solving a lot of specific task
for example, teacher salaries and the like, and where do
you take the money? Where do you get the money
for that? They will do what they can do. They'll
be breaking things because army is a bulldozer or tank.

(17:54):
It can ride, crush and should. It cannot do much
of positive construction work, and they're likely be treating their
citizens with the same approach. Plus, given that the country
will likely not be a winning position, there will be
a lot of resentiment internally and it'll be quite horrible

(18:15):
if military come to power. The drafting Commission is a
very weak representation of what that future may bring. Do
you like, as civilians all that power that drafting Commission has? Right?
So I actually feel pity for them, for our civilians
who are praising the military and waiting for them to

(18:38):
come to power. As a military officer myself, I want
to say you should never give power to military. You
need to control your military like a leopard. You need
to feed, to train, to prep, to sharpen his thanks
and to teach him the commands at which he needs

(19:01):
to jump at your enemy and three times step on
his tail a day to make sure that he doesn't
even think or consider to attack you. Because this will
be a catastrophe for Ukraine. It will run will run
out of Ukraine real fast. If we put military authorities
in power, maybe it will be for the better because
it may actually expedite everything for the country, and that

(19:23):
system may die out soonest, so military layers of our
society do not necessarily like Zenensky, and if we replace
Nansky with some other civilian figure, they may People are
discussing that military may actually do a coup and change

(19:44):
that figure. Well, it doesn't matter, Alexander, how military get
to power. If they do, the result will be the same,
and they will have to solve very complex tasks. First
ask is economy, Second is motivation of society? How can
they solve it? They can take away from some people
and give to others. That's the only way they can.

(20:05):
And then as for society, they'll make everybody marching to
the same tune. What do you think they'll be making decisions?
In humanitarians fear they'll be praising the tenth Article or constitution.
You seriously expect that from the military. Look at the
Drafting Commission. You'll learn everything about social rights. Look at

(20:28):
it and its practices. Alexidik Levitch I question, then, to you,
then military have a higher chance to come to some
agreement with Putin than the ones in power now come
to agreement about what Alexander about shrinkage of Ukrainian army,

(20:48):
about demilitarization, No, they don't have better capability. Military were
more or less adequate in the April of twenty two. Unfortunately,
by now we have a different trend in the army,
the ones who are pushing to continue fighting to the

(21:09):
end to capture back those four districts, pointing finger at
bad management of the office of the president, which is
also correct. But it's not just the office of the
president that is fighting. Military also has something to do
with waging war, right, So I am very skeptical about
any figure coming from the military sphere in Ukraine who

(21:31):
can reliably and effectively strike agreements with Putin. These organizations,
these big corporations, they finish their wars that they have
not finished earlier. So guys just pray that military never came,
never come to power in Ukraine, because compared to them,

(21:53):
even Szegensky's government is awesome. If it's military in power
in Ukraine, you can turn off the lights, leave ale say.
They're saying Stumbul is going to be at the end
of this week, Ometav is still the leader of delegation,
and I noticed an interesting story related to that. Very
few people commented on this. All past week, we've been

(22:14):
listening different statements from Russians who are saying that people
come down hold her push Ukraine so that they would
negotiate with us. These were the screams from Russia, Pisco Zaharava.
They were all expressing that same concern that somebody needs

(22:35):
to make sure Ukraine goes to negotiations. Len Zelensky changes
its cabinet of ministers, reshuffles the beds in the whorehouse,
and now he's coming out to the media and saying,
we suggested to Russians to hold a third round of
negotiations in Stumbul, and this will be a preparatory round
to the meeting of leaders in Moscow. They're also preparing

(22:57):
for Stumbul meetings. So what do you think that third
round will be about well, probably about nothing. They will
likely agree about exchanging more prisoners of war some bodies.
I did not see it as a big step forward.
I'll quote even Pavulschelan here, but even if I would

(23:20):
save myself, I would likely be saying the same thing
as he just did. The war may include only to
two by two reasons. First is victory of one of
the sides which were far away from and second if
negotiating positions more or less coincide, which in case of
Ukraine and Russia is very far away from truth. So

(23:41):
the war is likely to continue. In Russia, recently, there
was a cascade of changes in the link between the
commander of division commander of the type of military. So
that means that they were studying the effectiveness of different
leaders of different branches of their military, and they're changing

(24:06):
the existing ones, the non effective ones, for the ones
they think can do better. So that means that they
are about to implement new program, new direction, and we're
likely to continue seeing new developments on the front. At
the beginning of August. Do you think they'll change something
drastically and they'll roll further and more with more vigor
and surprise. Now, Alexander, Russia is not full of surprises.

(24:31):
We're not about at the time of the Second World
War when Germans were expecting Russia to attack, Soavit Union
to attack them in one direction and Soviet Union had
chosen different. No, everything is very predictable with Russia. They're
following in the framework of a very predictable conflict. Dan Yet, Kulogansk,
Harkovs Buffer Zone and Sumi and the four districts that

(24:53):
they claim. That's what they're trying to realize. They'll just
use their resources they accumulated in the same old directions.
They perhaps will continue or try to continue to encircle
Pakovsk and they will try to get to Slavansky and Kramatovsk.
This is their plan. Plus Kupin's direction is also a
big interest to them, so that's likely what's gonna happen.

(25:17):
Perhaps the parogia as well. The commanders of fifty eighth
Army were changed as well, so that direction will also
get active. In Pakrovsk. They already have diversion investigative groups
in the city, so the front runners of Russian Army
already are there. Oh yeah, they are encircling it from

(25:40):
the north, and also they're breaking through in the south
towards New Plopatowski district, So everything is pretty sad there.
This is a tactical success of Russians that has grown
into operative tactical and it is threatening to become a
wide operative tactical success in this segment of the front
is here across on the map. So surprisingly we just

(26:06):
before the stream heard that there are several of Russian
groups already infiltrating the city. And one of the videos
was that Ukrainian vehicle was driving basically in the limits
of the city and they were shot at and one
of them was wounded. Yeah, you know, not necessarily could

(26:27):
have been the real Russian group, could have been just
somebody panicking. When situation gets tough, people vegetary, They can
shoot in the direction where they shouldn't be, But it's
difficult to tell. Probably the question is how shall we
organize the fight for this township? If our generals will
again send a bunch of troops into this town will

(26:51):
likely bury another unnamed quantity of our troops defending unnecessary position.
Russians have already taken I think fifteen townships and the
same schema and our genius commanders are failing to understand
that you do not need to defend the township. You
need to concentrate on cutting the flanks and their flank attacks.

(27:13):
We can talk about that on some other occasion, Alexynical Levitch.
We're still looking at the map. What is that new
direction near Harkov? Is that pulling our defense forces their part?
Or well, this is rather standard Frun's academy ten Stalin's motion,

(27:35):
standard pincers, small pincers, large pincers. They continue using the
same basic principles and it works with amazing result, and
with the equal dumbfoundness, our generals continue to be caught
in the same trap over and over again for the
fourth year of this war. There are a lot of

(27:57):
mysteries in the war. For example, it is still not
exactly agreed upon how many planes were on their craft
carrier at the Battle of Midway, and the fighters participants
of those battles are giving different data. And this is

(28:18):
just about one parameter, the number of planes on their
craft carrier. That once again outlines how complex warfare is
and how different people perceive things as they're happening. But
given that I know quite a bit about the military history.
There'll be another question that'll probably concern military historian. How

(28:40):
can Ukrainian leadership military command continue losing townships and parts
of defense line on the same schema without any simple
attempt to think it through to correct their behavior. Perhaps
they are thinking about it, but it's not getting projected
into reality in any fashion. And all of the famous

(29:04):
strategists Sunzu, Machiavelli, Munstane, they're all turning in their graves
if they could ever understand why Ukrainian command is doing it.
You know, there is a crude old saying when the
third husband is beating you just like the previous too.
It's not about the husbands. Perhaps stop accusing the mirror

(29:25):
and maybe start looking at yourself. You know. Let I
say yesterday everybody were concerned. The day before yesterday there
was a fire near Zaporogia Electric Station nuclear electric station,
and some people are saying that Ukrainian troops have attacked

(29:46):
mistakenly some forests nearby. Others are saying that it's a
hot season and forests are burning. Well, Alexander, even if
somebody will attack nuclear station, it is quite difficult to
destroyed to cause certain harm. Remember, back a couple of
years ago, they were attacking several There were several incidents

(30:09):
of Russians attacking different energy stations, nuclear power stations. They
even dropped some paratroopers near one and they shot it
up with tank, with artillery. They used UAVs to attack.
They disrupted back up reserve systems. Nuclear station is difficult

(30:30):
to crack. It's difficult to damage in such a fashion
that it would cause tremendous consequence. All right, Alexi, let's
go back to geopolitical level. Probably most interesting one that
makes me smile. Ingraham comes out and says that Trump
will put in zass. Everybody got inspired one hundred percent

(30:53):
sanctions against China, against India, and people are saying, of course,
we will be looking for replacement for Russian oil. While
Moscow reacts to that rather calmly, to all that bravado
and Trump is remaining quiet. He gave his fifty days
and basically made his statement. So where does Graham bring

(31:16):
these expectations from? Where does the story about whooping Puttin's
ass come from? Graham is pushing his own campaign in
American Parliament. He probably wants to become replacement for McCain
McCain used to be in the similar position before, and

(31:37):
Graham is aiming for the same position. Actually visited his office.
He's an interesting fellow. So regarding Trump and the rest, look,
if you are slepping eighteenth Tromaga destructive package of sanctions,

(32:04):
one can think that eighteenth sanctions package is already funny.
It's almost like that old joke about one hundred and
first Chinese warning, right, This kind of sounds similar to
the eighteenth sanctions package. That reminds me of another joke
from the Times of USSR where a young fella of

(32:25):
a very dark skin color comes out and says, and
he's basically an ambassador from some African republican Soviet Union,
and he's saying that during the last sixteen revolutions that
occurred in our country, during the last couple of weeks,
not much changed. We specifically remembered fifth and eleventh revolutions,

(32:45):
which were supported by fireworks. And that's kind of what
these sanctions remind me about. Meanwhile, let's look at the
dynamics different motions of the global West and the direction
of Russia or global South. We can argue about the
quality of countries in the bricks system we can talk
that they're not real friends and allies, but the trend

(33:08):
is present, and recently it ended with the summit in Kazan, Russia,
and with Sijeinpin on Lenin's mausoleum, and supposedly Putin is
going to visit Sijinpin in Beijing on the third of September.
So somehow the relations between the participants of the Global

(33:32):
South do not necessarily start to break between themselves. Now,
imagine that United States suddenly decided to become strict and
they implemented severe sanctions against China and India. What answer
do you think they will get from India and China?
Do you think it will bring perhaps two more consolidation

(33:52):
between those camps. Yeah, Chinese already saying addressing Europe, what sanctions,
make sure you think twice before you implement anything against us.
So they will likely be taking their own measures. We
do not know the efficacy of the first measures and
the secondary measures to nobody will surrender. Measures will likely continue,

(34:18):
and we'll see probably more of the tariff war that
Trump started. And apparently it's only Columbia and a few
other countries that are bending over everybody else. Not so much.
Now there is a tariff war between EU and the
United States and they're trying to figure out their position

(34:38):
between themselves by the first of August. Now, imagine if
a U and the United States cannot counter agreement, where
will you go? They will likely go search for some
soul seeking in China and India. So it seems to
me that in this global race for success, global South

(35:00):
may get several significant blows if the West would really
decide to do that, But ultimately the global South may
still win in the global scheme because it might lead
all these countries to a better consolidation as the result
of the sanctions. And now let's imagine that China will

(35:26):
decide to interact more actively with Russia on the battlefield
that's already driven that starts with a UN ends with
an E. And if China will start supplying actual military
equipment to Russia, vehicles, arms, will you be still happy

(35:49):
about sanctions? Sure, Russia and China and maybe India will
be suffering from some of these sanctions. But Russia may
get more artillery shells. North Korea may bring maybe forty
forty five thousand more troops to the front. Who will
pay for all these sanctions in all these games. I, however,
have significant concerns that the West is capable of implementing

(36:14):
sanctions that will be so serious that will cause such
an answer, such a revision of relations between Russia and China. However,
I cannot fully exclude it. We've seen the declaration from
May joint declaration by Russia and China. We'll see what
they will declare in September. How did the last three

(36:37):
months change anything? But at large, I do not see
West being in a serious shape to cripple anything with
China or India, while global South is actually on their
rise in this relation and they're looking for ways to
take some revenge on the global West. That's why if

(36:57):
I was a betting man, I would bet on the
Global South. And this case, so yeah, Package number eighteenth,
I say, what happened with Aliv? He's taking pictures with Gordon.
He's making statements, rather sharp statements, Alexander, Everything is rather

(37:18):
simple with a Liv. He is in a sharp anti
Russian phase now and he's picking sensitive information points that
can poke Russia in the information field and protocol ethics
and the symbolic sphere. Everything is quite understandable. He is requesting.
He's demanding Russia to compensate them for the downed plane,

(37:40):
passenger plane that they shot recently, Russia is being stubborn.
Russia is arresting Azerbaijan in Russia refusing to fulfill the demands,
reasonable demands for compensation from Azerbaijan. So this is a war,
a cold war of a kind in the information field,

(38:03):
and they're picking measures that are relevant to that level
of escalation. This is not really a hard principal position.
We saw the games between Turkey and Russia after they
shot down the Russian jet. There were quite significant statements

(38:24):
and posing posturing on both sides, and then eventually they
found some relative peace. So many things may change. Well,
it's just Alex say in Ukraine. It was taken as
Gardon is now saying, my second home is Aerbaijan. Oh yeah,
the usual purple ray. Understand. Gardon is the media figure. Yeah,

(38:46):
he picks the more media worthy events. And as far
as Zerbaijan, we'll see how it develops. If Azerbaijan combines
with other Turkic speaking countries of that culture, that may
lead to something, but for now it is not because

(39:07):
to Ruan can essentially spread its influence all the way
up to Siberia and Yakutya up north. So if one
goes to the symbolic space, Russia has three players who
are playing against her symbolically and historically, same enemies that

(39:28):
Byzantine had West Hazurs least and Muslim world, so Turkish world,
Turkic world. They're not all Muslim, but they are Turkic people.
And this is a combination of geographic and political and

(39:50):
cultural layers. So Russia will have to face this threat
as well. And if they'll continue being down playing rough games,
they will likely have to face these issues too. To
put it lightly, Russia is not in a good shape
as well, and it doesn't seem that they can get

(40:10):
to the good condition, to the good level of readiness.
The war made them turn in the needed direction for
them for their development, not for us, not for Ukraine,
but as for peoples in history and their meaning in history.
It turned them in that direction that they started asking
questions who are we? Why are we? But they're doing

(40:30):
it so slow and the effectively, and I'm not quite
sure if they'll have enough time to be in a
better shape before it's time to face Turkic people, so
Ukrainians are asking themselves another question. First meeting of National
Security Office or matter off as a secretary, Zagansky comes

(40:52):
out with a statement. Yes. Zansky, by the way, announced
that there'll be a third round in Stumbul on the
twenty third, and they'll be discussing the meeting of leaders
of Puchulan's announce kent in the future. And it's almost
like some holiday with this regime. They are introducing some amnesty.
They built in another holiday that they announced and they

(41:15):
forbade extensive audits and checks of businesses. Yeah, they did.
And today and yesterday they sent messaging to teachers and
schools to reach out to parents to make sure that
the kids return to the country, that there will be
no extra sanctions or anything in the country. And I
think this is basically indicator of the dwindling resource base

(41:39):
because all the peasants, all the serfs run across the river,
across the border, and now they have to return them
back somehow because otherwise it is nobody to gather the
funds from. I think it is the influence of Cuddenka
as the new prime minister and his plans to bring
back the children to stop extensive audits of business. This

(42:02):
will not help significantly. Look in Ukraine, we have a
system of relations of the seventeenth century lords, sub lords
and the serfs. And however much you praise the serfs,
there are still the serves and the lords are sitting
around the president and partaking in that feast. The core

(42:25):
of this system is remaining, unfortunately the same, and it
needs to be replaced if we want to be more effective.
That system is just fractal, fractalizing itself, duplicating itself everywhere
in the army, in the schools, in business. In Ukraine.
There is an interesting thing happening that I don't think

(42:46):
has exactly similar things happening in the twentieth century. Look,
our prime minister agreed to be the Minister of Defense
and the secretary of the Count of Security decided to
be his replacement, his deputy. So they went down, they

(43:13):
took a position lower than they were on basically got
spat on their faces and they just wipe it off
and continue carrying out their duties. What is that about?
ZELUTIONI agreed to become an ambassador in London after being
the head of the General Command in Ukraine. What is
that about? How can one explain that? Is that about freedom?

(43:37):
About work for the country. A couple results if you
start thinking about that, is that they don't have a
bunch of replacements. They don't have anybody to replace these
people with, so they are shuffling them in different ways.
Very few people choose to work with the Zelensky government.

(43:59):
And second is that people that they work with understand
the degree of their doom and their incapability to achieve
anything outside the system, that they even agree to a
downshift versus going outside the system. So this is all

(44:22):
very sad in public space, Alexi, do you think it
will have any reflection what will be with our society
if we separate this government from this society? Nothing, Alexander,
society is a hostage with this regime, and there's not
a single reason for this society to become better. If

(44:43):
there was any, I would have definitely picked on it,
But I'm not seeing any today. There was a video
that goes going viral on the webs who was playing
guitar and she asked him to sing a song Childhood

(45:06):
by Yodushutunov, a Russian singer Soviet ex Soviet Union. But
Russian singer. So the performer played the song even though
some people out in the street were screaming that this
is a Russian song, you should not be playing it.
I have a duality of feelings here. On one hand,

(45:27):
it's very two faced situation. So they're basically trying to
create a certain image outwards, to show that people outside
Ukraine would see it in a certain way. We'll get
some mumbutsmen coming out and saying, let's remove Russian language,
let's be a different nation. But when it goes down

(45:50):
to the dailies, we all are what we were before.
What's happening with people? Because just to ask to sing
a song by Yudishitton Office nothing too special, right, nothing criminal. Well.
Society mimics to what the government demands to a degree

(46:14):
that they can prosecute you. Soviet Union taught everybody to
smile and pretend that they are following the Communist party.
When people after the fall of the Soviet Union came
in and decided to implement the same stories from Soviet
Union and say that hey, we do it better. It's

(46:36):
now independent, it's different. Our society is still doing the same.
They're just adjusting and accommodating. Everything that's happening has been
described in nineteen eighty four in the book by Orwell.
There was a billion of such cases throughout our country,
and all dissidents like you and I know that a

(46:56):
bunch of people who accuse us publicly then go back
and send us dms in the media and text messages
saying that I apologize. I had to do that because otherwise,
you know, I will never get a contract, I'll be
losing my job, I still have family. So they're all
pressed between a big corrupt dictatorship are taking them from
the east, and small coryp dictatorship that's based here internally.

(47:21):
What do you think will save people say, because there's
usually an exit somewhere, no Alexander. Sometimes there is no exit,
And I think I fear that this is exactly the
case right now. Well, do you think these square yards

(47:49):
are worth it? Well, nobody is asking their opinion. They're
not allowed to express their opinion. The only shape they
can choose to rebel is rebellion, or they can run.
They can flee the country, but it's very limited in
both options. I can quote here something from Stogatsky from

(48:11):
the Inhabited island, if you allow me. It was a
very interesting conversation between Maxim, who had blown up the
command center, who was brainwashing everybody and sending propaganda throughout
the nation, and another resident from planet Earth who was
the undercover member of the government and he was preparing

(48:33):
a different, slower way out for people of this planet.
And Maxim is saying, well, after blowing this up, the
revolution should start. So this undercover fell ask why do
you think so while there is no more raise, people
understand that they're suppressed, that their life sucks, and they
will rise against their power. Where will they rise to?

(48:58):
Who will rise? The unknown feathers of this nation are
still alive. The guard is all mobilized. It's martial law
in the country. What are you expecting to happen? And
they also have mobile propaganda units. Even though you destroyed
the central hub, everything will remain. So nobody's going to
rise anywhere. Not in this case, Well, an I say,

(49:24):
people are beating up the drafting commission. That's correct. We
already see the topics where the regime can collapse, and
we are seeing that drafting Commission is definitely one of
the acutes heels of this regime. And those who are
interested in collapsing this regime, they should be pushing on

(49:47):
this hill. However, military or fashionable military, the ones who
are on good terms with the government, they are enjoying it,
they're getting enough support, and they're not in the most
dangerous parts of the front, versus the other brigades, who
unfortunately are experiencing much less love from the center and
being thrown as the fodder. But for now, we still

(50:11):
have a very stable pyramid in this society, and just
like in the Middle Ages, and there are very few
reasons for it to change. Miracles happen, but you cannot
plan for miracle. That's why we cannot seriously predict anything
about that. Otherwise there is no real exit. That always boiling.
And that's too. One of the exits that can happen

(50:34):
is if Putin prevails militarily. But then how will it
be presented, what form will it take, and what will
it lead to undoccupied territories as well as in the
unoccupied territories. So a lot of ifs. End of this hour,

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