War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1250: Mindich Apartment Scandal is the End of Zelensky. Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Greetings to our dear friends, guests and subscribers to mine
and Alexis channels. Alexei, Hello, good evening. We're streaming live.
This is a live stream side not from priorities station,
of course. This is a translation of that live stream
that happened a few days ago. And please look at
the QR codes underneath both of the speakers. Alexis leads

(00:26):
to his school and Alexander's leads to his channel where
you can ask questions for the end of the stream
where they're usually being asked. This is actually a good video.
On one side there is his QR code. On the
other is the ring of power from I guess Lord
of the Rings. Right, You're ready, Alexei, of course, always ready,

(00:49):
All right, friends, Today's Paul is pretty straightforward, easy to understand.
I think it is difficult to know the inner workings
of the person about whom the question is. But the
question is, will Trump succeed in reaching ceasefire with his

(01:13):
ultimatum for Puttin? Not the peace deal, not the cessation
of all hostilities, but just the ceasefire? And options to
answer yes, Putin will step back and set a ceasefire.
Terms second option, Trump will play it back three, Zelensky

(01:34):
will conform with Putin's demands and there will be a ceasefire.
And option four there will be a ceasefire, but Zelensky
will leave. So, Alexei, how would you comment on this
new version of a ultimatum that now is shorter than
fifty days, it's now ten days ultimatum. Oh, Alexander, I

(01:56):
think cultimatum is not the key element. The key element
of things to discuss is the Mindage apartments recordings that
were made public this week. If there were no recordings
from Mindage, will probably ignore the ultimatum and would continue
fighting as is. Everything is getting more interesting, So let's
put the apartment of Mindage into focus, would you like

(02:19):
to sure? So? In Washington, DC, there are successful rumors,
persistent rumors circulating that everybody were recorded in this Mindig's apartment,
Minister of Defense discussing issues with Zelensky, and a lot

(02:45):
of audio apparently was recorded, including the statements from Zelensky
that he had left all Ukrainians, and that has to
be verified, of course, but this is what is currently
being actively discussed. Now. One can understand that whole story
with National Security Agency of Ukraine that we discussed last time.

(03:11):
They were trying their best to prevent leaking of these
materials into the public, but it's difficult to hide a
month and a half of recordings. And for now that
the security agency is ready to attack Mindage on certain issues,
but it remains to be seen whether it will be

(03:31):
converted into something that will target Zenanski himself. At the
very least, they'll try to suppress all the data. And
right now they actually are somewhat scared in Zaransky's office
by concerns about these recordings and also possible blowback from

(03:55):
the population, and also by support from the West Telegraph
recently published a material about Zenansky being part of the problem.
And let's be very delicate here and say that Telegraph
is very very good friends of MI six. How a
friend of mine told me basically who is in the know.

(04:20):
He's saying that the moment your employer sends you such
a black mark, Senansky has to be concerned. And that's
why next morning Senensky came out and made a statement
that he has sold things. He is on the same
note with Britain, everything is okay. And why did he
do that, because that's essentially his employers as I would

(04:43):
call them from London, sending this signal to him. So
all these people who are recently shuffling around the office
and trying to be their best friends, upon knowing of
these recordings, they are starting to change their clothes, to
change their flags, and that's a signal. That's a great

(05:04):
signal to see that they're turning away and saying that
Zenansky is horrible according to their statements, and they're sharing
more data where people get more concerned. So this is
a significant sign. These guys and girls are usually not
wrong about their predictions, and I think we are in
for some interesting developments. But ballpark Zelenski is done with

(05:31):
whether he will be done with tomorrow, maybe two or
three weeks, or perhaps he might even hang along till
next spring, which I sincerely doubt, but anyway, his status
will be in a bad position. So either NABU and
Ukrainian Security Agency will start persecution on Mindage where it

(05:56):
entangles with Zilansky heavily and drag Zansky down as well,
or if the Congress will not vote to return these
persecution authority to this agency, they likely will not vote
for that, and then they will likely use it to
get their own power over Zelensky and his administration. If

(06:18):
the lawmakers will not and court will not remove Zelensky,
then they'll be likely another might done some sort of
military pushback and civilian push back, and nobody will save Zelenski.
But whom with then RuSHA will sign a peace treaty? Right?
The answer to that would be who comes after Zelenski.
For example, if it is David Darahamya who is the

(06:39):
head of Congress and he likely will stay in that
position to the end of war, he can sign these documents.
Another thing is of Ilutionary flies from London and is
being presented as the savior of the nation. Whether he
will sign peace treaty, that's another big question. How third options.

(07:01):
Lensky may go for a broad coalition saying that listen,
it's not just me, it's us together called Yuletimoshenka, butter Prashenko,
everybody else who has different connections and different rings of power,
and then he will have to share his power. He
becomes a hostage of parliamentary forces on the oligarchs, and

(07:23):
his ten percent that he will remain owning after that
or under his influence would not matter much. And even
his party upon the revelation of these recordings. There are
a lot of mutinies happening now right so he isn't
quite a pickle whether broad coalition and coalitionary government, whether

(07:44):
they will try to grab some authority and power from Zelenski,
and I doubt Zanski will even be considering sharing that
so the like will be more conflict. And whether will
this government sign peace treaty that's also not clear. So
for Russians and for Truan we are likely entering the
season where there is no legal subject to sign such

(08:07):
a treaty. From the Ukrainian side, you can find somebody
who can sign, but how will you execute it? How
will you implement that? Who has enough power? Because what
if there'll be some army elements that will say, no,
we're continuing the war, right will they listen to whatever
new government or whatever authority is going to be signing this?

(08:27):
So right now it's not about whether Zdanski will be removed,
but more about how quickly national Security Agency of Ukraine
will realize these materials. Well, according to these materials, Alexei,
there are spies everywhere like Maluk and such and right, Alexander,
and they'll probably play the card that it's artificial intelligence

(08:51):
playing the voice of Zenensky in this case, but no,
it won't help. It will be rather well compensated with
support from the West. All these recordings. The likely will
be experts will come and say that now these recordings
are real, and they'll be likely some supporters of that
and the like will be people in the streets of

(09:11):
Kiev supporting the authenticity of these recordings, pushing back on
against the government, and Trump and Putin will have to
deal with whatever power will be after this milestone is passed.
The problem I see is that we're entering now the
times of Ali like nineteen seventeen, one hundred years ago,

(09:35):
when everything was changing in the grain every five or
six months. Whom with on what terms are you going
to sign p s traty with in such a situation.
Perhaps Trump knows how the situation with Nabu will end
with National Security Agency of Ukraine, and that's why he's
taking time and taking paws at the same time he

(09:57):
is insisting on these shorter ultimatums. But then he needs
to organize everything in such a way that Putin would
not interfere, would be limited in his interference with the
power transition in Ukraine. That could be a legit version
because if they indeed calculated the possible outcomes of this scandal,

(10:22):
they would need certain guarantees from Putin that he and
his troops will behave during the transition of power in Kiev,
because it might take some time for a peaceful transition
to happen, because Ukraine for that period will be basically headless.
It'll be without the chief commander, and there'll be a

(10:44):
question who is organizing us, what are we fighting for?
And they'll be rather vulnerable as an army, as a
society in Ukraine. So likely Trump is preparing some arguments
for Putin to control him, but we'll see in the
nearest term that'll become clear. So in ten to twelve days,
right right, And the vote is what in Parliament of

(11:07):
Ukraine on the thirty first, so just four days if
there'll be a vote, they'll be like the new wave
of protest. So those people who will not be able
to realize all the attacks on Zelenski's government through the
legal proceedings will likely start dumping that material into the media,
into the masses, and they likely will be a lot

(11:30):
of uprising in the society. So i'le I say in August,
we're expecting a turnover of power in Ukraine. Well, I
wouldn't say that. I wouldn't say revolved. I would say
probably a difficult transition of power. But looking at the
numbers that Trump is naming and how everybody is getting ready,
everything is right there at the pivotal situation. There are options,

(11:56):
There are optional developments for this scenario. I can see
three or four options here, whereas Lensky can probably hang
through till maybe October November, but very doubtedly beyond that,
and maybe it'll be everything done in Monday, right when
the crowds will storm the office, he might just flee.

(12:20):
Since this video was recorded and this is an asterisk
from privateer station, the vote indeed happened in Kiev. Out
of all the congressmen attending, three hundred and thirty voted
four return of the powers to National Agency Security Agency
so they could continue the investigation. Zero were against did

(12:41):
not vote. Nine. During the vote, there was a significant
presence of protest outside the building and a lot of
public support to voting for this bill. So, Alexi, you're
bringing the factor of Russia as an argument. Today, there
was an interesting story. Minister from Affairs of Putin Lovov.

(13:02):
He was participating in some pedal and he was making
different statements, not without hope towards Trump, of course, but
at the same time he was saying that, look, the
West is not sending any allies to this front. They however,
still want to break apart and weaken Russian Federation. On

(13:24):
the other hand, there are Trump's ultimatums. Starmer was sitting there,
very pale, who didn't know how to behave and sitting
on these chairs, while Trump is burning with his word
saying that there is nothing to speak about. We talked
a lot, it doesn't lead to anything successful. So there'll

(13:45):
be sanctions, There'll be secondary sanctions against Putin and those
who support him. So Trump supposedly is on a high horse.
He just made Ursula bend over to do whatever she
cannot do physically, basically. So Trump supposedly acquired one hundred
percent victory in his negotiations with EU on tariffs and

(14:06):
on military support. Right, Trump is usually making a trademark
out of his name being related to victory. Right, And
if there is no victory, that means that somebody else
left up and Trump was not really there. So then
we see the answer of Medvedev, and that answer was
somewhat weak, that Russia is not Iran or Israel. Alexandri

(14:31):
there was another answer. By the way, Janinsia Matienka was
met with flowers in Europe. She is the head of
the Federation Council that gave a formal nod to put
In to start this war, and she's being met with
flowers in EU during her visit. This is your real politic,
not whatever is published in the media. So I'm still

(14:51):
curious to see these scary sanctions that Europe and America
will slap on Putin's regime. But to put it delicately,
what does the Russian soldier sitting in a trench or
attacking Ukraine positions, positions? What does he hear about these sanctions?
Will he continue keeping preserving his capacity to attack? Yeah,
he will likely What else? Well, what, perhaps there'll be

(15:14):
any uprising against Putin's regime? Do you need to know? Russians, Alexander,
if they see that NATO is somehow against Russia, they
will likely tighten their belts and they'll produce additional one
hundred and six percent support to Putin. That's a national
Unfortunately character there the moment, they somehow consider that Russia

(15:36):
is under attack, and it's symbolic capital images under attack.
They are ready to suffer, and they likely just become
stronger and more fighting back. It doesn't quite work with Russia.
All have sanctions. You either need to fight Russia seriously
or not fight all. These sanctions, in my view, are
just Kindergarten like behavior towards it that leads you to

(15:59):
not much effectivity. Medvedev makes a note in his Twitter
speech saying that do not act like sleepy Joe, addressing Trump.
But Trump supposedly is pulled into this conflict. It's not
his right. Well, whatever Trump is doing, he will not
be able to follow in the shoe steps of Sleepy
Joe because Joe was giving up to five billion dollars

(16:22):
a month to Ukraine and Trump and his supporters will
likely not be able to support such a behavior from
Trump administration. And it's still a big question whether he'll
be able to win his Congress in the midterms. And
it's this matter is rather painful for parliamentary debates for
his supporting base. So Trump is always attacking Trump is

(16:46):
always looking scary. That's all his biography. Right. The question
that one can bring up is what do you do
if you are not scared? Right? What's Trump's strategy if
his opponent is not scared of his initial visage? Well,
I say maybe then change Zelensky. Right, then you need
to find the replacement for Zelenski and find somebody who
can sign off for districts and Crimea to put in,

(17:09):
because otherwise there'll be six districts and Crimea despite of
all sanctions. So the question is who is such a
brave person that can do it. That's why, with all
my personal fiery love to Vladimir Zelenski, I would say
that people might three months later find that rather nostalgic

(17:34):
to think about times when Zelenski was president, because imagine,
it's Illusiony flies in and becomes the ruler and he
hears that ultimatum that you need to strike peace accord
with Russia. As Illusiony recently, to remind you, publicly made
a publication saying that our victory Ukraine victory will not
be liked by anyone. That's a very straight signal to

(17:56):
Trump with his piece. So its solution comes back. Imagine
and he starts to fight rather actively in the front.
He will not sign off for districts in Crimea, not
over his dad body, and okay, he is fighting. The
United States perhaps going to diminish their support. Zeganski already
mentioned that we do need forty billion to hold our

(18:17):
social situation for next year, to pay pensions, to support
medicine and other services in the country. So whoever comes
after Zelenski, the main question would be question of economy,
microsocial stability. If it will be some military or some
scary junta, do you think they will be paying all
these social payments, that's an open question. Maybe they will.

(18:40):
It'll be interesting to see whether they will go for
signing any peace treaty with Russia. Whatever Europe is saying.
United States are definitely on the track of signing peace
deal with Russia. So all these pro Western and nationalist
battalions in Ukraine, they will have to find somebody from
there ranks who will sign such a treaty, because if

(19:04):
they don't, they likely will not have any energy, not
have any money, and then they'll likely be replaced whatever
government is with the next wave with much simpler demands.
We want bread and water and electricity just about six
months later. So stick the ban at on the ground
and demand some stability and end of war. That's why
Trump's ultimatum is a diminishingly small figure on this background,

(19:28):
that doesn't define a lot of things. Well, alex say,
there also are other questions about what will India and
China say about this ultimatums? All right, right, Alexander, Indian
China will likely be on a maximum pushback to Trump's administration,
all right. EU signed seven hundred and fifty billion dollars

(19:51):
to invest into the energy obtaining switching to energy sources
from the United States. That's pretty expensive and not nobody
knows whether they do have this money. Plus transporting gas
and other products to Europe by cargo vessels through ocean
by tankers, that's another questionable activity, whether you can organize

(20:13):
it on a level to sustain you. And then Macron
also somewhat attacking Trump as the media are publishing. So
it's an interesting story. But I'm interested in the main
aspect here, alex say. Let's talk about us about Ukraine.

(20:38):
Why are we treated in such a way, if one
is to believe the recordings from Mindage apartment, why Ukrainians
are treated as dogs. Well when were they treated as humans?
The power in Ukraine is organized in the mafia style.

(21:00):
One with the power is the boss, everybody else are
Nobody's just not everybody knew about that. But now I
think with the recordings it becomes will become obvious for
all the Ukrainians, especially for those who still somehow believe
that Zedanski is the president of freedom who is leading
them somewhere. And it's just damn Daristovich and horrible putting

(21:22):
on the other side of the border who are attacking Ukraine.
You know, I like say, I have another question here
that the source of power for our congresses people on
the streets protesting, then why would one take a piece

(21:42):
in that source being Zenanski? All right, he got power
in Ukraine, but those activists that pushed him up are
also the ones who are limiting his power. And the
main threat for him is not even those protesters, but
the fact that they the protesters are supported by publications

(22:02):
in the West, because there were a number of articles
supporting protesters already not supporting Zelensky. Zelenski is not a
comfortable figure for the West, and the reason for that
is that he does not have a plan to end
this war. Plus he thinks that he is the smartest
and he can ride the West as long as he

(22:24):
wants to, pulling more time for himself, and then eventually
somebody might die, maybe Putchin will die. And yeah, that's
his concept on meat On bet On Putchin. And that's
why he treats his own people as come and he
treats the West as silly allies who do not know
how he plays them. But apparently going in the direction

(22:47):
that he will be the main idiot in this situation
the moment the majority of the data recorded becomes available,
and this is a direct threat to him and to
his person. The main thing on these recordings is a
corruption in the Ministry of Defense Defense, the thieory on
the blood of Ukrainian soldiers, on the blood of civilians

(23:10):
dying under Russian bombings and under Russian UAVs. All that
is in recordings with the voice of our beloved President Z.
So it's quite obvious why he's reacting this way to
this threat. And one can remind of the Lenin statement

(23:34):
from a century before saying that do not waste your
effort to create a revolutionary situation nobody knows when and
how it will be created, but if you see one,
you have to be twice idiot not to use it.
So currently there is such a situation in Ukraine, and
I think we'll see in the nearest future who will

(23:55):
use it. I would like to speak about Tymoshenka with
your support, like say, she's such a lady who can
sign even the most uncomfortable things right, and she's standing
in a challenger's position right now. A lot of congressmen
are saying, oh, we did not think about and Yulia

(24:15):
is now supporting the flow that hey, give the money back,
and Ukrainian deputy cannot in a Ukrainian congressman cannot return
the money. They already spent it or invested it somewhere,
and they could only play the card that they did
not know what was happening, and they were just being played.
All these people, all this propaganda that Zelenski funded, how

(24:36):
great he is, how Ukraine defense systems work, how everything
is fantastic. Apparently now we can see with these publications
that we're apparently supporting falsities, and Zelenski's backpeddling saying that
he is not part of that. So the congressmen are
now taking position that oh I made mistake. I'm sorry,

(24:59):
I shouldn't have supported that propaganda. But Timashenka is different
and Zaranski site does not have enough votes. Plus there
is a break that they're going through, like summer recess.
Do you think of parliament can or is capable of

(25:20):
taking power over from Zelensky. Yeah, Parliament can do that,
and people already are discussing that they will not vote
for different law. The law will remain in a way
it was written. But what Julie is doing here that
she is trying to bet on those who have real

(25:41):
power in the country, in the mobilized country. This is
people with arms who have power, and people who have
networks they source andngos and the like. So she is
betting on the part of electorate, on the part of congressman,
those people who think that perhaps America and Europe needs

(26:03):
to go take a hike, because no one can see
her drifting towards the nationalist battalions more than towards the
source grantees and among the right. In Ukraine, there's a
lot of battalions and brigades on the front, and there
are ideas that we should not be on the dancing

(26:27):
to an American tune for a while, and they don't
really like the source Grantees. So the question is whether
there is going to be a figure who can unite
these two forces in Ukraine, the grantees and the nationalists.
The real power will be with the one who will
be able to do that. Una took her position. She

(26:48):
took her position against Perhaps later she'll be she will
afford to be talked down to change her position, but
or she may admit that she miscalculated. Who knows. Alex
say so, if this significant turmoil is upon us and
we're likely to repeat the events of the last century

(27:11):
over one hundred years ago, then why Ardi one is
making statements that they will set the table of peace
treaty in Stanbul. Well, he was making these statements when
the events with National Security Office Agency in Ukraine was

(27:32):
not clear, and of course he was playing cards to
try to get more support from putin Trump and perhaps
your Mark. So he came out with the statement to
continue playing the vector of truth of peace treaty. I

(27:53):
did not know if that was pre organized or he's
just using the situation. And again there are two different things.
Peace treaty and change of power or creating conditions for
a change of power in Ukraine. So perhaps Trump and
Ardivan and the like will continue insisting upon a ceasefire

(28:14):
while there is a political turmoil in Ukraine. All right,
Alex say, so once again to clear it for the listeners.
Is there a possibility that a peace treaty will be
organized somehow, because Russia already apparently managed to do that
in a few days of the protest that were happening

(28:36):
in Ukraine. Russia did not attack anything with their ballistics.
They were watching these slogans and people protesting. They saw
how people are spitting at Bezugla at Zelenski, how that
whole motion is happening on the square near the front

(28:57):
co theater. And then later there were some strikes from Russia,
but not during the protest. So there is an expectation
that the war might freeze if there'll be something happening
in Kiev. Well, the war may freeze only if one
side will stop fighting. I'm talking about Russian side. Like

(29:24):
why Russia would take care, would care about the change
of power in Ukraine, Well, because they might probably want
somebody who signs for districts to them in crimea and
they would not take less. Well, Alexi, we are Ukrainians.
I remember twenty fourteen, remember the historic role of Parsuk.

(29:44):
Whereas he now, maybe we'll find the Parsuk light, and
what do you think he will do? Like he will tell? Oh, yeah,
he will. What I'm saying, Alexi, is that he might
say to sign, you might order to sign that. Well,
at the very least there'll be some split in the
army on that moment, and the likely will be a

(30:08):
civil war happening in Ukraine. In this case, then Russia
may take six districts instead of four and use this
situation so they may play peace three D a little bit,
or cease fire to worsen the situation and gain more
at the end. Okay, alex see, why is the illusionary?
Do you think is taking pictures for Vogue? Agreeing to

(30:29):
these photo shoots? Well, why do you think they're building
an image? And you can get a lot of good
pictures and prestigious magazines? Why not? Right? Who do you
think looks better as illusionis? Sridenka. I did not follow that, Alexander.
I did not follow the photos. God think you that
I have not seen them? I'm asking this question because

(30:54):
they're all connected with the future political configuration of the country.
I think, so, how do you see that, Alexander, we
need a figure who can connect Sourus networks with nationalists.
We already have two figures, Biletsky and Prokopenka. Billitsky is
the representative of the leaders of the right, and he

(31:16):
is in a very difficult situation in this regard because
he would need to explain to his nationalists why do
you need to align with Sourus? And Okay, he can
use the explanation that yeah, it's because of damned Putin.
And also his wife is working in Ukrainian Truth Pravda,
which is funded by source. So that union actually has
already happened in the family of Bilitsky, so why would

(31:40):
it not spill beyond the limits of this family. Buddhana
also came out on the first day with a statement
that yes, let's unite. Unity is the main thing for
Ukraine in the face of the existing enemy. So they
likely will be a small clash between these candidates or

(32:00):
a quick agreement. Budanaf Bilitski's illusionary who will be the bridge,
who will be explaining to the army into the right
that this is important to connect with the left that
are pro LGBD and all that, and they don't like
the torch ticket torch motions and the other the right

(32:20):
side who apparently like that, And they'll have to solve
these difficult tasks, and then they will have to figure
out how to keep their economy working, how to provide
for social stability, or how to fight more effectively with Putin.
But it's interesting to see what will happen when they
come to the West and say that, well, listen, we

(32:41):
are now all joined together and we're ready to fight
against Russia. We're not squabbling anymore. The West may come
back and say, you know what, guys were done with
the award. Now you need to sign the treaty and
sign off for districts. Who can do that? Budanov might Biliotski?
Do you think he can? Yeah? I think he can.

(33:02):
Why are you saying so? Because I know him personally.
He can go for this on certain conditions. He's significantly
flexible and he's probably the smartest of them all. Z
Ilusionary likely will not sign that he was grown in London,

(33:23):
not for that, So that's a question. How it will
be solved, and nobody knows what about Aristovich. Oh Aristovich
will sign that, Yeah he would have, but who is
backing him up? Perhaps those who will click the like
to this video. Well that's not the matter, Alexander. Those
who click the like button, they do not have organized

(33:44):
forces or networks like Sores grantees, or they do not
have battalions like Biletski and the illusion in Budanav. And
that's it on these terms. I'm not flying back even
to Ukraine, not even talking about Kiev, because you will
get there, you'll sit in a chair for half an hour,

(34:05):
sign these documents, and then you'll be taken out on
the bayonets. Where is legitimacy coming from? That? The power
forces will use in Ukraine? Two of them were elected,
Yeah they have some, but how do you organize elections?
How do you work as a legitimate authority? So likely

(34:29):
will have either military, junta or congress, and this will
be the triangle that'll be determining the power. The Congress
source networks and nationalist battalions and more legitimate organ that
likely will be more successful in getting money for microeconomic
stabilization will likely they'll be uniting around the Congress, because

(34:52):
this is the more legitimate body within that And likely
the head of Ukraine will be some leader of Ukrainian Congress,
and they have four or five leaders pretending who can
contend that position, the Viet Kaimia, Julia Parashanka, perhaps a
few others. So the likely will be a series of

(35:16):
some clashes that'll lead to that figure emerging, but nobody
can predict which one of them will. There could be
some fallen helicopters and other black Swans events happening. So
I will likely just watch that unfolding from somewhere in
the yacht, and my time will come when they all

(35:40):
will be already done with that segment, when they will
quarrel with the West completely, when they will eat through
the money they were granted, when they will still have
networks and battalions, but all that stuff will stop functioning,
when they will seriously look for some figure who can
fix things, not pretend and two. But it will not

(36:02):
happen in the nearest time. That's why in my plans
I have coffee and the yacht. So, Alexi, do you
see a threat of regional separatism in Ukraine? Yes, of
course this was the dance that's very liked in Ukraine.
Ukraine was the leader in civil wars during the last

(36:23):
hundred years. I think, and I'm thinking, this is likely
what's going to happen the moment the status of the
Supreme Commander will waiver. That likely will be regional and
district forces who will be creating blog posts on the
roads and not letting drafting commission in the moment there

(36:44):
is a certain commandant declared in the territory. Read through
the between the lines that it means that centralized authorities
have no power over that, even if it's a small
village or whatever. This is lack of legitimate power of
Kiev in that region. And that's one of the tasks
for any coalition solution, whether it's Zaluze, Aristovich Congress, will

(37:09):
be to figure out how to unite Ukraine. What would
be the ideas to unite Ukraine over going to Europe?
Europe doesn't want us. What do we do after peace? Okay,
we got peace. What's happening after Alexey? You were spreading
some pessimism here. Look at Levov City Council. They just
released a clip three and a half minutes Ukraine twenty

(37:34):
sixty two were the old Fella in twenty sixty two,
supposedly sharing the highlights of his life, and he was
volunteering in Kiev district, where he met his future wife,
the friend of his life. How they finished war when
Putin died, how they joined successfully EU and now in
Europe there is a tri Ukrainian trident. Although he still

(37:56):
has some fond memories of Ukraine, Krivna and Native Summit
is happening in Odessa. And if he did not join
Ukraine Army armed forces, he would not have any of
these memories likely and this little future will not be happening.
So what do you think about that? Well, there is
an option, I guess, where we have three different Ukraines,

(38:17):
where the westernmost Ukraine could be combining and creating such
fairy tales. This is possible, true, but Ukraine is not
living into the joint future. This is the problem, because
this is the turmoil you're entering when you do not
have a single vision of the future. Is the glue

(38:40):
that keeps society together, and Ukrainians do not have it.
Now we have very different understanding of history, very different
views on the future, and they're all saying Okay, let's
get rid of Damputin. Okay, imagine we got rid of
them to Putin. The war is no more? What's uniting you?
What's common? The victory over Putin? Well, I'd say perhaps, right,

(39:05):
or the great prohibition on singing Russian songs or more
patrols on the streets. What else is uniting? Fantastic? Right?
I can feel the ecstasy of a new Ukraine populace
over these goals and uniting factors when they will be
prohibiting languages on their territory. You know, there was a

(39:29):
video that I saw recently from a fella who's fighting
the war, and he was talking about somebody visiting them
who was so surprised that there is Russian language used
on the front. He was saying that seventy percent of
communication and seventy plus is in Russian. Oh yeah, this
is the fighter with the collsign anarchist, very symbolic. Oh yeah, absolutely.

(39:54):
He Actually that fella mentioned a very interesting thing. He
said that we are the guilty party in the war. Yes,
putting attack us. He is horrible, understand that, but we
violated a lot of things. How interesting, Alexander, right, he
is almost speaking what Aristovitch was telling for over a
year now in these streams. Look, when Zelenski leaves and

(40:15):
people will understand that the king was naked, there'll be
a global revision of the reasons for this war, how
did we end up here, and the ways out of
this situation in our future perspectives. And it may turn
out that during a year, year and a half that
all figures who are considered to be super important now,
but let's keep done of the illusi. They may be
taken away by the wind of history. And there might

(40:38):
be different Ukraines, or one different Ukraine. So don't hurry,
don't rush, don't try to jump onto somebody's political bandwagon
based on a personality. Think about the projectivity. What country
would you like to see in the future. And all
these removals of monuments, on these prohibitions of languages and religions,

(41:04):
that and the torture of constitution is only possible. And
by the way, yeah, the beating of people to death,
giggling at the ones who round while trying to leave
the country, all that exists only because central power breeding
Zelenski allowed for that to happen. The moment they leave,

(41:25):
the moment he leaves. This will be revised, and it
can be revised towards things being harder and harsher. If
Hunta comes to power, they will likely to turn the
drafting Commission to such a degree that you'll probably remember
Zelansky fondly. If there'll be a broader coalition like Congress,
there'll likely be some cool down of different things, and

(41:47):
there might be some civilizational advancements. So we need to
understand that my done project is done. With the old
might down that brought Zansky to power is done, It's
played its course, and it all would be great if
not for the war. Therefore, the efforts to stop the

(42:08):
war are being present to such a degree, and there'll
be a lot of efforts implemented by our allies and
friends to try to help us carry us through this
situation of change of power and to try to hold
Russia from attacking us in this time. That will be
very serious efforts implemented in this direction. But the presence

(42:32):
of those efforts does not mean they'll be successful. Speaking
of efforts your field, Alexay, and this is a serious question,
very serious question, since you have talked about people who
were present near the President's office, who were hanging out
and connecting and making money there and fishing. They have

(42:55):
left or they are leaving that evening I left. She
is still somewhere in the government's working on return of
the kids, et cetera. But she is no more press
secretary for Iarmark government is ann government, and some people
are comparing it with the Yanukovich right when his press

(43:16):
secretary left. So there are a lot of interesting parallels,
one with Kuchma, another with Yanukovich. So there is an
interesting message that one can see through all these events. First,
they dug out that Dinisiva who comes out on air
and starts to tell stories a tear heartbreaking stories about

(43:42):
excuse my language, that Russian troops are raping Ukrainian women
so that they would not want to have anything to
do with men any further and they would not be
giving birth to any Ukrainian kids later, and this is genocide.
Now she had already faulted on a previous topic in

(44:05):
a similar direction, and apparently now they're digging her out
and dusting her off and sending her to the media.
Now they're sending more videos with some Ukrainian women and
strings and bikinis ordering the warriors of light music somewhere
in Dubai and Russians cannot do anything about it, and
our Egyptian or whatever Dubai front, beachfront is dancing to

(44:31):
this music all inclusive detachment. So we somehow appears to
be being pushed or thrown back into the agenda of
twenty twenty two. Now, since you have been sanctioned, you've

(44:51):
been in a different position in twenty two. These days
you're sanctioned. How many people have left the country, and
the horror and torture and you know, threats of sending
them to the army and getting dying there and the groves.
Do you think they can revamp that two motive now, Alexander,
I think this is an agony of the old projectivity.

(45:15):
It just comes to an end. What shape it will
take and when exactly will that happen? Will it happen
tomorrow or a couple months later, But we need to
concentrate on what will happen after, and there will be
the change of projectivity. Could be better, could be worse,
could be more cannibalistic, could be somewhat humanitarian. So who
raape whom and who's dancing under what music? That's matter?

(45:39):
Number two hundred and ten, and whether some congressman congressmomen
decided to push some feminist topics with the presence of
this figure in the media. I don't think it's that important. Frankly,
I think we can concentrate on some other aspects of
today's news. I'm bringing it, Alexei, is that it's strange

(46:03):
that they're digging up this mode again on the fourth
year of this war. Our propaganda is sucking from their
finger something worse, all this heresy, Alexander, who cares about
that propaganda? In very short term, nobody will care about
what they want to say. If on the West, they'll
be very determined to get Ukraine to work towards peace.

(46:24):
No propaganda will help. Why okay, okay, alex say, why
are they not giving this order? Oh yeah, they are.
All these stories that are unfolding now, they're definitely directing
Ukraine towards peace. So Alexi, why they're still jumping Then?

(46:46):
Why do we see that wave of twenty twenty two
moods trying to revive itself. That's the continuation of that
those all trends, Alexander, When the probably the fun fact
I said, when these two groups come back to Europe
and say, you know what, we have jumped enough. We

(47:07):
have finally made peace with each other, between source and nationalists,
and we are ready to fight the war with Russia.
They'll get an answer, no, you need to sign a
peace treaty. Nobody cares about what they'll do until that moment,
but the push from our Western partners will be towards peace.
Nobody cares about propaganda, what it will say. In the meantime,

(47:28):
they will be asked, what is your plan to stop
this war and who are the people who can do it,
who can implement it? Looks like Trump doesn't have it,
and like I say, does he? Well, that's only half
the problem. Wait a second, West is only half the formula.
Russia is a different side of this formula. And Russia
is ready to finish this war if they are given

(47:50):
four districts in Crimea. And that's what the West will
try to pursue us to do. And they are still
looking to find the person who will be powerful enough,
who will be legitimate enough to sign this treaty. And

(48:12):
I think they somehow overestimate the degree of how much
Ukrainian authority can manage Ukrainians and the degree they can
trust those people who are supposedly in power or apparently
in power. So I can believe in a short term

(48:35):
peace treaty with Russia that likely will be ruined somewhere
before we continue going further. And there is a chance
that Russia will also continue their effort to advance and
to capture more Ukrainian lands given the chance. The maps

(48:55):
of deep state do not really draw us much data.
Oh no, Alexander, there actually trying. Okay, so let's look
at the map. We have some successes by Ukrainian forces
near Kondrativka. Apparently they liberated that village. You can see
some photos and videos in the socials. In Alixeyevika, Russians
pushed forward, but in Kondrativka, Ukraine has destroyed Russian's thirtieth

(49:20):
brigade there, and that's Russia reporting that two and twenty
fifth elite Ukrainian brigade is pushing in that direction. Is
that the counter offensive that Sirski was announcing. No, no,
this is the very specific episode related to capture of
one village in the not towo important direction. What's happening

(49:44):
in reality, Russians are steamrolling US in non bus area,
and they have a chance, under certain conditions to grow
their tactical success into operative tactical And this is a
serious thing if it happens. You can see that here.
Right since the September of twenty two, that has not
been the case. All right, let's go from north to south.

(50:08):
The surrounding of Kupensk is probably the matter of time, right, yeah,
it is, but it's not too quick. I would say
it's autumn, Alexander, maybe even deep autumn. It's not so
simple and so direct in this war unless for some reasons,
inner political reasons, perhaps the front will collapse. But everything

(50:30):
does head there in the direction of closing the skettle
and creating operative balcony to attack Zoom after that and
go to Krematovsk after. So this is north. We talked
about that before. Oh yeah, you did talk about that.
But you can see that there is push near Sibranka

(50:51):
lemand direction. Deep state map is not showing it, but
it is quite noticeable here and people are writing about
that that it does look like Russian breakthrough. Yes, this
is one of these three areas that I talked about,
and this is still tactics. It doesn't have operative tactical success,

(51:13):
does not have dozens of kilometers in depth or in
length on of the front. But it's serious thing. So
let's just zoom out and say, if everything continues, the
tempo doesn't change, the situation, ballpark of numbers on both
sides doesn't change, then Russian push towards surrounding Kupensk, closing

(51:37):
the air in nearly one taking Pakrovsk and getting to northeast.
From Pakrovsk to Drushkovka, for example, this is the question
of several months, up to three months. This is not
too quickly, but in the current situation in the front,

(51:57):
almost inevitable. Now if any changes happen of different kind,
for example, inner political in Ukraine, inner political changes in Russia.
Let's leave a chance for that to those who perhaps
believe that which might fall after new sanctions. Then the
terms may the time, That time frame may either expand

(52:21):
or contract. But if we keep the same temple it
will be about three months. Direction, however, does not change.
However you rotate this map, there'll be some of the parosia.
There will be Pakrovsk, Konstantinovka, Kramatorska and Slavansk, there'll be
some squabble on the north of Harkav and Sumi districts,
which do not play a big role in relation to

(52:44):
main political tasks of Russian command about taking four districts
under their command, which they have added to their constitution.
So I do understand the Alexi that Slavanska and Kramatorsk
are targeted, right, the Russians have as targets. Yeah, all
the drawing of this map, this is about Slaranska and Karmosk.

(53:06):
This is the last big city like agglomeration and Downbas
district that Moscow leadership wants to take, all right, And
understandably there is additional factor here. A lot of concerns
are happening. I discussed now about water in Dnysk, yes,
among other things, of course, Alexander yep. The more they

(53:32):
push the story in different Vinyesk public networks, the more
looks like Russians will are going to attack Slavansk, all right.
So also let's look at Stepnagorsk here in the south,
this was an interesting story. Here we have Kakhovsky water reserve,

(53:57):
the big dam that was destroyed, a lot of grief there,
some lacusts, invasion. Local publications right that Russia is responsible
for lacust attacks in non Ukraine fields. And here, however,
on the side of the field Russians are advancing and

(54:19):
apparently are now fighting for Stepnogorsk. What do you think
it has in perspective? Oh? Absolutely, Zaparagi District is in
their plans. You don't even need to argue about that.
They planning roughly towards winter to capture it, to winter
towards winter, yeah, winter or later. If everything remains in

(54:41):
the same fashion, then more likely it will happen post winter.
But it's still in their plans, and very often it
happens that they drew a plan but forgot that there
are ravines and other complications on the way. The logic
of the current battle suggests that sure dan Yetsk and

(55:01):
Lugansk district sculpture, they will concentrate on the parachia and
that's their part. M hm and end of the first
hour mm hmm.

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