War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1264: Will There Be a Ceasefire after Alaskan Summit? Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:10):
In greetings, dear friends and subscribers to my channel and
to alexis channels as well. Thank you for following us
on both. We are currently doing a live stream on
both channels, Alexei. Good evening, Good evening, Alexander. Thank you
all for chiming in, asking questions and trying to understand

(00:32):
what is really happening. Sometimes it's pretty difficult. Right before
this stream, Trump came out to public and made a
bunch of promises and interesting comments and looks like he's
rather upset with Zelenski. So two QR codes. The one
that's next to me is allowing you to ask a question,

(00:53):
and we'll be asking some of those questions at the
end of the stream. You can also join Alexander shallist
and private channel and support his work there. Let's call
it this, and of course try to ask questions if
you have anything that you do want to be asked.

(01:13):
Qrcode next to Alexi is a link to his school
School of Thinking, School of Philosophy and Logic and Psychology,
so you probably want to check this out as well.
And let's start our today's stream with the usual poll.
The question today is whether there will be peace in

(01:34):
Ukraine after summit in Alaska. Simple question and the first
answer is yes, there'll be peace right after summit. Second option,
yes it will, but not immediately. Third option, none of
the war will continue, and fourth it will but after
Zenanski is gone. So some of these options are not

(01:57):
mutually exclusive, but choose the one that you think is
closer to reality. It seems like all sides are preparing
for the summit, and the whole event is getting prepared
on three sides. So what do you think is the
glass half empty or half full? I'm trying, Alexander to

(02:20):
create a construct that is not using expletives, but it's difficult.
I think that this glass is just odd. And being realistic,
we need to understand that it's very non trivial to
plan and explain and predict events in the battlefield. So

(02:41):
let's look at the intentions of the sides. Trump and
Putin do have intentions to stop this war. By the way,
Putin also wants to stop this war. All these stories
about him trying to continue it forever are quite far
from truth. He mentioned in his conversation with Lukashenka quite
recently that he does not want to fight. It is
not his story. Frankly, he's not really the warring psychotype.

(03:04):
He continues to fight, but his psychotype is about something else.
The first department of KGB is about calculating different things
behind the closed doors, figuring out different nuance of agreements,
and war seems rather blunt to them as a tool. Moreover,
in Russia, there are some trends growing that at the

(03:28):
very least push them towards at least taking a pause,
if not going out loud and saying let's do a ceasfire,
but at least taking a big pause, and some of
them economic reasons. Again, nothing is too deadly there. Nothing

(03:51):
will break Russia's back in the economy. But the trends
are growing. And if they figure out a way to
stop some of these trends and getting some bonuses because
of this, and hopefully removing some sanctions for them so
they could continue to make money, then why now. Right
leaders usually do not meet unless they have drafts pre

(04:13):
approved and pre agreed up to eighty five percent before
the meeting. The drafts that they have currently appear to
be going in the direction of freezing the front on
the current front line, conducting quick elections in Ukraine in
rather short terms. And same as Alif and Pashnyen are

(04:38):
sitting down in the presence of Trump to sign the agreement,
then Puttin in zelanskap can also gather in presence of
Trump to sign a contract, which in this case, by
the way, yeah, alex say, there was a conversation about
there was talk about Trump mentioned Zanski has to sign something.
What do you think he will make him sign a

(04:59):
truce fire, Alexander, And in the understanding of both Trump
and Putin, Zenansky is done with. This is the point
where they both agree up to one hundred percent. And
for Trump it's pretty simple. He needs to close the war.

(05:19):
He's trying to present himself as a peacemaker from Congo
to Zerbaijan to Ukraine and Russia, and he needs to
present himself as a candidate for a Nobel Peace Prize.
Otherwise there'll be some consequences for this war that is
still lasting. And America is facing Congress selections soon, so
they need to come to some result in this matter.

(05:42):
Then let's take Zidansky. Zedansky does not like neither Trump
statements nor Putin statements because for him, this is political death.
Probably physical death too, but political death for sure, and
everything beyond that is very undefined, which and very from exile,
from living somewhere outside Ukraine, from criminal persecution, from a

(06:08):
lot of other options, and a lot of professional Ukrainians
who will not forgive him, like Sorros battalions and alike,
and very right leaning Ukrainians, very national type, nationalistic type
Ukrainians will not forgive him for signing anything with Trump
and Putin. At the same time, the other half of

(06:33):
Ukraine is also not going to support him if he
continues this war. So he is like a deer in headlights,
and he is a hostage of his own politics that
he was conducting for the last three and a half years.
He was trying his best to be liked by all
three categories, by professional Ukrainians, by Sorrows networks, by nationalist battalions.

(06:58):
He was presenting him all of us their significant leader,
and he did affect a lot of rights that Ukrainians
used to have, and unfortunately it did not help him much.
Now he's still between two different lights, and symbolically this

(07:19):
is reflected in the fact that he's not being officially
invited to Alaska. He did mention somewhere that there will
be a trilateral meeting. Then he mentioned that it'll be
a bilateral meeting and he'll be present somewhere. And then
Trump came out and said, you know what, Zensky's present
is not really necessary for this meeting, and he bliblantly

(07:41):
said that Zensky is not going to be an active
participant in this meeting, right, Alexi There was a note
somewhere that Trump mentioned that if he wants, he can
fly to Alaska. But what Ukrainian media is not continuing
to translate is that he has said that Zensky was
lying for three years already and did not lead to anything.

(08:03):
So if he wants to hick and come right, Alexander,
like proper politics, you never say no, You just give
a sign, give a hint that his presence will not
be necessary. Meantime, Europe and uk have quickly rigged up
a meeting and expressed their joint opinion that they do

(08:26):
not like what is happening. They do not like Pudjin,
they do not like Trump. They are still supporting Zelensky.
We do not know exactly Chinese an Indian position, but
given the pressure that Trump is exerting on both countries again,
both of them are probably for a ceasefire and finishing
this war. But European mantras about Ukraine returning to its

(08:51):
original borders are probably not shared as a point by
China and India. So what are you facing now is
Selenski likely will not accept what put In and Trump
will agree about, and Trump already made a statement that
they likely will be some interesting outcome of this meeting.
The matter is that he will he cannot accept it.

(09:16):
The problem for Zelensky then is what he will use
to continue paying for this war. Where will he take money?
We already are facing over forty billion dollars deficit for
next year, and most part of Ukraine money is coming
from the United States as support. And here Events comes
again and says, you know what, We're stopping any monetary

(09:37):
support of Ukraine. Trump already is reacting with a maximum
negativity to Zelenski as much as possible according to the protocol.
But yeah, Lelanski is definitely not welcoming Trump's office. So
we'll see. It'll be interesting what suggestion, what offer will

(10:03):
Trump and Putin come up with after their meeting. Zelensky will,
I'm predicting, will likely not be receptive, And then we
will see what will happen with Zelensky after that, Alexei,
it seems like it's a rather dangerous rhetoric trick here.

(10:24):
Look put in full scale invasion of Russia. Russian troops
under Kiev. Yet some protests or some veterans throwing their
medals at his office will, as you're saying, probably push
him out. Well, yeah, The problem is that Brussel EU

(10:48):
are standing behind the protests against Lensky, and if Zelensky
is not going to do what EU and Britain would like,
he'll be announced to be next Yanokovich in Ukraine. So
those sides that were usually supporting him, they're not supporting
him anymore. The problem is that Soros battalions and the

(11:10):
nationalist battalions, they are somewhat interested in continuation of conflict
because without a conflict they their influence significantly diminishes. How
will they push the Lenski out? That is a big question,
But there are other people who understood that being upset
and expressing your upsetness about Zelenski, it is okay. You

(11:33):
can already conduct another might done in Ukraine and express
your concerns about Zelenski's rule, and that's acceptable, Alex say,
it appears that politically in Ukraine, besides those Soros battalions
and Zelenski who are trying to hug each other politically

(11:54):
and be one in their aspirations, there is no other politics. Well, so,
when you were saying about revolting against Zelenski's regime, whom
is that revolting about? Whom is the addressed to Remember
when we talked about so called cardboard might done when

(12:15):
people were upset with Zelenski in different cities in Ukraine,
they simultaneously came out to streets, to squares in different cities.
Now imagine that repeating on a bigger scale. And when
Zelensky is being called a usurper, a dictator, and somebody

(12:39):
on these protests may come out and say that Zelenski
is a corruptionnaire. They don't even have to come out
with the slogans that we want peace. They can come
out with the slogan that Zelenski is corrupt, especially if
that happens on the backdrop when Trump says that we
cannot work with Zelenski, and he very likely will make

(13:01):
similar similar to the statement after Seganski refuses to accept
results of Trump and Putin's meeting, So it is interesting
to see what will happen in Ukraine after and who
will support who will be the figure that will support
Trump's and Putin's efforts in Alaska? Ale say, what do

(13:23):
they imply when they say exchange of territories, Alexander, They
will now be there will be no exchange of territories.
Russia will perhaps give Harkov and the Parojian Hirsan districts completely, yes, completely,
They will likely conduct referendum other mechanisms. I have always

(13:44):
said that the scale of Putin's steps and what he
will likely suggest for Ukraine to have will surprise people.
So this is probably a time when we will see
it rather soon. What is happening in Alaska that they
will discuss the intentions, and they likely will discuss Danietsk

(14:08):
and Lugansk ownership of complete ownership of those districts in
exchange for those districts where they will remove themselves from,
and they will likely add sanctions removal to the package.
Why do you think, well, because holding territories that are

(14:30):
not keen on having you as a ruler is difficult.
They take money, It takes a lot of efforts to
control them when there is partisan movements and local citizens
are against you. Now, for Russia, it is also a
critical time that they were planning to use Norwegian, American
and other European technologies to continue oil excavations in the

(14:53):
Arctic region. Now this is all closed for them, but
it's critical, so they're eager to figure something out on
a global scale in order to restore that. Plus, China
purchasing will from Russia is not as profitable as it
appeared to be initially, so if they can find a

(15:14):
peaceful way to trade with old and new customers, if
they can find a way to trade their sanctions for
giving back some of the occupied territories. Now, again, this
does not mean that this is one hundred percent. This
is the options that are being discussed, preliminary and most

(15:37):
likely it'll be a freezing across the current frontline, with
many other things happening after and concessions on both sides.
But however you try to make this pill sweet, it's
still a bitter pill for Ukraine to swallow, and the
focus after that will be on Ukraine. How our population

(16:03):
will figure it out, who will be the next political
figure to lead Ukraine in the next period and this
is to pay more attention. I would suggest then whatever
is now appearing in the media about withdrawing troops and
Russia withdrawing from Ukraine or Ukraine withdrawing from some parts
now this is likely not going to happen in the

(16:25):
near future. But even in a more promising option for Ukraine,
the most promising draft that the Trump and Putin can
come with, it is not acceptable for Zelenski still. Plus,
there's something that needs to be done with Britain and
with Europeans, right, Alexi, I wanted to talk about those

(16:48):
two players as well. How ready are they in to
participate in this Well, it's visible the last days, the
last years, Alexander. The problem is that the real support
for Ukraine in the volume that is needed for successful
resistance to Russia, not even advancing but at least orderly retreat.

(17:13):
Europe does not have the resources to support that. They
do not have money to support our budget. If it
takes them about a year to figure out more Emma
or a couple more patriots to give the Ukraine. What
are we talking about when all of the European countries
are saying that they will not send their troops to Ukraine,

(17:33):
they will just continue helping from Afar. And also, given
that about eighty five percent of European arms have American components,
America can veto the supplies at any moment. So Europe
technically cannot provide necessary support volume to Ukraine. But in

(17:57):
a very do faced fashion, they can be saying out
of one corner of the mouth one thing and the
other from the other, and they can still come out
to the stage and promise that they will support Ukraine,
they will stand with Ukraine. Yet technically they're incapable of
supporting these words. If somebody gets joy from listening to that, great,

(18:18):
but it does not help Ukrainian troops somewhere near the
Brapolia where Russian's pushed in for ten kilometers and cut
the road the Brapolkrematos growth. So we'll talk about the
map later, Alexey. Right therefore, Alexander, I think we have

(18:39):
this story. We have only one player who can give
enough resources to fund the Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression,
and they're not going to the other group in Ukraine
can only say that we'll fight to the last Ukrainian
when there is no support, but still does not have

(19:01):
any perspective. All right, I still keep your words, Alexi,
that Puchin's concessions may be rather great or rather surprising. Well,
they'll be surprising in terms of real politic. He'll be
following real politic to the t I think, Alexander. Well, still,

(19:22):
I want to discuss with you, Alexei, the square kilometers
in this case square miles. I have to just take
a model that Puchin is ready to go for many things.
He's ready for different concessions to get to ceasefirepoint, to
be able to work in the future with America and
Alaska and Arctic oil mining. And you can read more

(19:49):
on the topic. You can look up the economists publications
about the money that Russia is looking to raise on
exploitation of Arctic resources. This is for those who like
to go deep into the rabbit holes with taste analytics,
with prices and volumes, et cetera. Quite surprising. I have
another question, though, how generous can put and Bee in

(20:12):
the ideological in their philosophic demands to kief Regim and
the Project ENTI Russia. While this matter is likely going
to be solved on the next phase, Alexander, with the
new leadership of Ukraine because elections will happen, not for nothing.

(20:34):
They likely will be discussing and Trump will likely agree
to that that all sanctions have to be removed from
all the Znanski's opposition, that everybody has to be allowed
to run for next president's position, which generally prepares an
opportunity to bring new bloods into Parliament, into presidential office

(21:00):
who have different view on the future of Ukraine, on
our project, different from the Ukrainian insurgency army dugout. And
there is another component that people usually miss and those
who try to talk about that they will usually get
cold names. This is the size of a real opposition,

(21:26):
not to war on the Lanski government, but to the
Ukrainian insurgency army dugout, to the narrow project. How big
resistance is an opposition is to that project. People who
are opposing to the vector of Ukraine being anti Russia.

(21:47):
We don't know exactly the volume the size of this group.
We'll see them on the elections because in elections they
likely will be two groups ultimately running against each other.
The Party of War where all the nationalists, all the
source networks and the like will continue pushing for a

(22:07):
lot of politicians will also stay in the Party of
War because it's very short time window to change your
shoes on flight, change your dress and flight and go
for a different goal. And the Party of Peace. Who
will lead that Party of peace and how many people
will support them. That's interesting And here's what will likely

(22:28):
face If the Party of Peace prevails, depending how many
votes they get in the parliament, they will have to
face a different difficult problem of changing the projectivity of
Ukraine on the go. They will have to allow Eastern
Orthodox Church, they will have to allow Russian language, they

(22:51):
will have to allow a lot of things that Putin
was demanding on his side, and that will also create
a situation where they will have to stop prosecuting people
who do not agree with the narrow project. So this
is a difficult, construct different task to solve. Now, if
the Party of War prevails in the elections, they will

(23:14):
probably continue the conflict for another year, maybe year and
a half, because they have to continue fighting, and they
will not be able to continue fighting, so they will
try to expand the drafting ages both upward and downward,
and very likely they will not be able to support

(23:35):
social payments and pensions and medical stuff to the population,
and they will lose rather quickly because put In will
likely not go for any agreements with that government, and
then Ukraine will likely fall into another turbulence and will
have likely more extreme groups forming in the country pushing

(23:55):
back as well as going to fight for the last
Ukrainian But Alexi we're talking about that option without Zelanski.
Oh yeah, Alexandra Zelenski will not be on a political
stage in very short term. So now a question what
will the Ukrainians vote for and whom will they vote for,
and whether there will be any elections, because there is

(24:17):
also another scenario where the fire is taken out on
bank of a street. Then somebody comes from London on
a beautiful helicopter and talks with Timashenka, Billia's kid, Budanav
and between the four of them they figure out some
new form of power. But this new power will still
not be able to strike cease fire with Russia. They

(24:39):
will continue to fight and then they'll run out of money,
money for war, money for social services, and they will
be done with, not only by putting on the front,
although he will play a significant role and will continue
crumbling the front, but they will be killed ultimately as
regime by the grandma's who will be out in the
streets protesting that they have no money to eat, to

(25:01):
buy food, and they have no medical services. And there's
nothing you can do with the grannies on the streets.
You cannot put them all in jail. And these are
two options, right. The Party of War the Party of Peace.
Party of Peace is also interesting. There are different undertones there.
There's a group that says that we still want to

(25:21):
go and join NATO in the Party of Peace, which
likely will not get enough support, right, Alexay, there was
an interesting story when Trump. If you translate that rhetoric
to a common language, everybody might start understanding why ri
Stowage is picking words so that he would not be

(25:43):
using expletives. When Trump is publicly making statements that Zelenski
is discussing that he needs to get constitutional agreement in
order to give any territory or sign anything with invading Russia.
Yet he's asking whether Zelenski then does have a permission

(26:04):
to fight and kill more Ukrainians than this war. So
he has a right, right Alexander, to disband constitutional court,
to take away people's rights and Ukraine's internally he's almighty,
but externally he cannot do that right, So he is concerned.

(26:25):
Zelensky is concerned with the numbers and that he will
have to take this political death as a result of
the events happening. So once again, not every party of
peace is worthy. And we understand what the party of
war would want to do. But the party of peace
that still wants to go for NATO, the one that

(26:48):
still wants to restore the borders back in ninety one,
this party of peace will likely just reignite the war again.
The party of peace that we need is the one
that will be changing the projectivity of Ukraine to a
neutral country, to a big, neutral, multicultural country that will
be accepted on all sides. And that Ukraine technically, when

(27:16):
announced its direction of joining NATO, it violated its own
charter of independence that they declared early when they were formed.
So technically somebody can bring up a legal question, bless
somebody like Putin and say, well, you're violating your own
charter by leaning towards NATO. So you were essentially debunking

(27:38):
this statehood of your country by these actions, and he
may have some case with this. So unfortunately, this was
a very horrible step for Ukraine to sign in NATO
and itself as an anti Russia into constitution. Just the
act of going that way, that that undermined the original

(28:03):
charter of Ukraine. When they added NATO and EU into
their constitution, Ukraine delegitimized its existence. Some people may now
bring it up on the banner and say, well, you
do not have Ukraine that originally was chartered, that chartered itself.
So that's why we need a different Party of peace

(28:23):
that will go to the basics and will try to
restore a neutral statehood for Ukraine. And I will not
even go deeper into the fact that the highest mastership
for politicians would be to figure out peace with all
its neighbors. And one can bring some good examples from

(28:47):
Middle East like Egypt and Jordan, who are still the
party isn't signing the Abrahamic Accords. And yeah, we'll see
what the Party of Peace will be in Ukraine after
the fifteenth of OGD. That will start to define itself
better and better. And that's why once again, not every
party of peace is useful. Friends, all those listeners please

(29:11):
by attention the party of Peace that does not want
to expand Ukrainian project. The party of peace that does
not want to find good relations with its neighbors on
both sides, is the party of extended conflict. They're not
the true party of peace here, Alexey, I want to

(29:32):
bring up some of the clips that are permeating Ukrainian media.
The series they are in Asov Battalion. Are they can
they be considered already a start of election campaign? Oh? Yeah,
they definitely are part of it. You can see. Here's
another little piece from that, as of propaganda. They're already

(29:56):
this is the party of war that is trying to
gain some popular in the face of looming elections. And
that's why again all these statements by different media personas,
how amazingly Third Army Corps had stabilized the front segment,
how fantastic their commanders are. The interviews with done of

(30:19):
the praise from ZULUTIONI, one can read that there is
an order that Zelanski will be replaced and all these
groups are reforming itself, but it still remains to be
a party of war. So what will be with Zelenski galaxy?
In your view, many people broadcasting their upset their negativity

(30:43):
about all that. By the way, one of the very
popular streams in social media. What they're doing now. They
take Zeranska Eclipse from twenty twenty two, when he was
still in a union, in a civil suit, in a
business suit and official clothes, and they're mixing them with
his current statements, and it looks interesting how he changed

(31:06):
his rhetoric from the original to what we have in
Zelenski's statements these days. And this is not done, I
guess for nothing, right. I think it already creates the
situation where Zenansky will not be able to just quietly
go into the forest. Alexander. The destiny of Zelansky in

(31:27):
light of what is going to happen with Ukraine is
not so important. However, on a personal level, I definitely
feel sorry for him because this is fiasco. Whether it
will end up with a plane that falls out of
a sky or some persecution and criminal punishment, or perhaps

(31:48):
a quiet exile somewhere, but he is facing a political end,
not as a triumph figure like manner Game who saved Finland,
but it will be likely a very negative exit, with
a lot of corruption, a lot of things, a lot
of errors done by his government pinned on him personally

(32:10):
and his close managers, because a lot of things could
have been stopped back in twenty twenty two on the
early negotiations step, and a lot of people would have
stayed alive. But his destiny will be rather grim in
any case, all right, if we try to pick some
details here, Alexander, at best, his destiny will be similar

(32:32):
to Michael Saka Shulists at best. Well, not a given though, right, yeah,
not a given because Michael has not done so many
things that Zelenski did, and in the volumes as such,
today Cancerenka made a statement that on the tapes from
Mindige's apartment there was a discussion about how to park

(32:53):
and that's the quote from Zelanski, how to park five
billion euros and surprising, right, Remember there were some rumors
about Zenensky's close circle trying to purchase a bank. And
you remember how propaganda in the Ukraine was tearing their

(33:15):
shirts and with the foam at their mouths, were trying
to say that no, this is all Putin's propaganda, this
is no real Apparently, the tapes from mindich apartment do
talk about purchasing a bank in France, Gnchinenka comes out
and says, indeed, in order to park a big amount

(33:37):
in cryptocurrency, up to five billion euros. It does make
sense to purchase a bank that's easier. So this is
a rather shocking admission of this thing, and some people
are laughing and saying, well, Macron, given the fact that
he likes to hug Zenansky, perhaps he can help you

(34:00):
with purchasing that bank. Well, listen, even without Gigerenka, one
can take a look at the press publications in EU.
Even during the cardboard my done, Zelinsky was named a
corruptionnaire and it has grown twelve times in his presence.
Corruption in Ukraine has grown twelve times. There are dozens

(34:21):
of publications of leading even European media that are generally
very supportive of Ukraine. In the first thirty of the
world media, you can find that that's why the label
is already on him. I don't think he can wiggle
away from it. In Ukraine they are somewhat comparing him
with Yanokovic among the youth. But in EU they're already

(34:44):
calling him a corruptionaire. And I did talk to some bankers.
The story is rather concerning, especially about the adequacy of
people who think that this could have been done if
indeed Zensky's environment was thinking that that's an option, because

(35:05):
that's not how banks work. It's not the way to
wash to launder five billion years. But the fact remains
that there are millions and billions of money stolen from
Ukrainian soldiers, the money that were made on their blood.
So we do not know how much of the material

(35:27):
will become available, but we can see that cardboat might
done in Ukraine had already happened even without much publications.
People were already coming out of the streets protesting the corruption.
So the situation is already rather fiery, where people are
ready to come out to the streets and criticize regime
that is leading the country and fight. So Zansky is

(35:51):
already named a corruptionnaire even before all publications are made
in the Western media. Second is we'll see how technically
will it be realized. He may fly somewhere on his
blue helicopter, but chances are he will be removed one

(36:15):
way or the other from power. And you don't need
very often to give all digital printouts of the tapes.
For many people, it's just enough to know that they exist.
Like say, let's go back to one interesting thought. I
want to unite those clips we in Azov from the
nationalistic right, and situation we see on the streets where

(36:39):
a blooded man is saying goodbye to his wife in
the Drafting commission hall, and all the infighting happening between
the Drafting Commission chasing Ukrainians on the streets and people
fighting back. So somebody asked Trump whether Ukraine can win

(37:01):
over Russia, and he said that it's a dumb question.
And he was saying continuing to say that America had
participated in defeating most dictators like Hitler and successfully done it,
leading the world in this. So I want to catch
this thought. The change of projectivity for Ukraine is being presented,

(37:27):
drawn into the mass conscience of Ukrainians by the volume
of losses and the territories, and propaganda was really pushing
the narrative that signing anything with Russia is going under Russia. Again. Well, Alexander,

(37:48):
this is how the Party of War understands it. The
source networks, the nationalist battalions, part of those on the
front and professionally Ukrainians. That's definitely a force, that's some
of the election force in this elections. But how self
propelled as this force? How independent are they? How long

(38:10):
can they exist without support of let's say American money.
If they completely are left without money and when other
orders are given from Europe or United States, they have
handlers or they have structures that they really are dependent
upon because they're their sponsors. So just placing the statement

(38:32):
that they are vector is joining Europe. They are limiting themselves.
And Ukrainian Right is a bit more about independence of Ukraine.
They are unlike source networks. They're not for supporting being
supported by UK or U. They want to be independent, however,

(38:55):
and even though they're holding one hundred and twenty one
hundred and fifty kilometers of the front bravely, the moment
they run out of m that'll make their task much harder.
So that's why I'm turning to people who are going
to support the Party of Peace, the Party of large
Projects in Ukraine. It will be difficult, and the problem

(39:19):
is not in the Party of War. The problem was
that Zedansky's office was creating propaganda that coincided with the
and was supporting the Party of War. But the Zansky
also faces another problem because he had done everything he
could to be liked, yet he cannot go with this

(39:42):
party now anymore. And the question is how long will
they remain. That's a question the Party of War. Will
they be able to withstand any pressure when the money
dries up, when they start to be targeted with certain sanctions.
We don't know. Still, I want to send a message
to our Ukrainians that the Party of War may win,

(40:07):
same as the Party of change of the projectivity. It
may win too, despite of all the corruption, despite of
all the propaganda and everything. If the global decision is
made and then the fifteenth, we'll see what happens. We
will see that if somebody will be resisting to that conclusion,

(40:30):
to that vector, to that decision, Trump and the United
States will likely not be supporting the Party of War
in this case, and Zelinski in his government. So there
are good chances for the Party of Peace to win. Well, Alexi,
there are wolves and shapes can still in Ukraine. Right, Oh,
we will deal with those two. Why do you think

(40:53):
Russia is not playing these games, Alexey, which games? Well,
let me clarify that question. Good. It's fascinating. Eight and
a half thousand people whom Ukrainian government added to the
sanctioned lists for different reasons ideological, political right exactly, Alexander

(41:17):
don't be shy. You and I are part of those lists.
Of those eighty five hundred people. It took me a
while to understand the scale of all this effort. Was
Nanski government, I say, and I understand, okay, maybe part
of this list indeed was working for Putin right and

(41:38):
targeting some things or giving him information, et cetera. But
eighty five hundred Really, why our government adding us to
these ridiculous lists? Is Russia not playing these games? Why
is it only Ukrainian doing it? Well, No, Alexander, in Russia,

(41:59):
I think they have already two or three criminal prosecutions
against me. I don't know about you, but if we
had smart people on both sides of the border, there
would be no war. And I understand we criticize Ukraine
here right where Ukrainian. So we criticize Ukraine we know

(42:19):
our country better, But we can criticize Russia if they
were our target audience. You could point out a lot
of elements like Mishkovshina, like Tusla. They had a ton
of events that were not smart. Yet all that disappears
as fog in the right moment. Why because in Russia
and like Ukraine, situation is more manageable. This is a

(42:42):
very uncomfortable problem for those who are very anti Russia
in their mindset. Russia is still quite an independent country.
It is managed and independent from the West country. Yes,
it is more complex and it does have some flour
of czar and slave rights. Some people like to present
it this way, but still Russia is manageable. For example,

(43:12):
unsolvable task of leaving Zaparogi and Hirson districts, which they
have added to their constitution. Russia has mechanisms. Yeah, they
added it to their constitution, but they can conduct a
referendum which can be one level higher than that constitution.
They can change constitution with that. So Russia can organize

(43:33):
referendums in those districts that they occupy to remove them
from Russian constitution if they need to. So they have
capacity to change their politics, to change their vector, and
they have tools to solve these things. Putin is a
legal animal. He speaks legalies, so he will figure a

(43:55):
way to do that. Oh, let's say, I know we'll
have a lot of attacks on us after these statements,
but so don't forget please to click the like button.
That's important. There'll be a lot of people criticizing us
and this scenario that you just always I'm also a
little skeptical about a published scenario that Crimea and don

(44:16):
Bas with Lagansk districts, remain with Russia, yet Russia liberates
other territories that it occupied. I'm skeptical that they will liberate,
they will vacate those territories. But I see you are
rather logically describing the working mechanism how it can work
that they will already have some senators coming out and

(44:41):
saying that you know, we do not need Hairson as
a city in Russia. We can just have a piece
of Hirson District and we can say that this is
Heirson District, so we don't need to change or do
any referendum on it. Right exactly, they could be two
Zaparogia districts, and they could be Russian Zaparogia District a
piece of our original one, and Ukraine will have the

(45:02):
other piece of it, or her Son District without her
own city. So we are not legal animals put in
lives and breathes legaliese. If he was not a legal animal,
he would not be even asking his council or federation
for permission to conduct this war, which he did and

(45:22):
he got. So they will find a way to describe
that and to describe the mechanism and to use these
mechanisms to be able to finish this war in the
way they want to if there is a ceasefire. Right,

(45:42):
so they will find a way to resolve this matter
with her son and Zapartoshet districts. I understand that they
will find a way to do it. How these are details,
Oh and I understand ale like say that all the
norms of international law they're avoid right, Oh, yeah, absolutely,
they're avoid this war or just avoided most of them. Anyway,
All right, let's go to the map. Let's go to

(46:05):
the map and take a look at the situation on
the front now, and I want to discuss the situation
on the front with Marianna Bizugla. She brought a medical
document that states that she cannot tolerate what she thinks
considers to be allies, and she is using it now

(46:28):
to support her statements. Our big victory. By the way,
if you have not noticed a village in Sumi district,
the sun, it's on the border somewhere near Totkiena. For
those who understand where the map is. I'll show it
on the map that village was liberated, supposedly. And then

(46:49):
Marianna Bezugla comes out and says that wait, not in
a single document published by the General Command of Ukraine.
This village doesn't even exist. Legally, Yes, we liberated it
supposedly to the statements, but legally it was not occupied.
Legally it doesn't quite exist. And also meantime she indicates

(47:14):
that there is a Russian breakthrough on the front near
the Bropolio and they already cut the road. Remember, Alexay,
I was trying to torture you, and you try to
avoid my detailed questions and you try to go deeper
into philosophy. I tried to pokey on the matter of
what is the collapse of the front, what it would

(47:35):
look like. I think that today the road between Kremators
and the Propolia capture by Russia, that is a crumbling
of the front. No, this is a breakthrough. This is
not a collapse. There is no military definition for the
front collapse. Politically and ideologically, the collapse of the front
would be when you have four different breakthroughs like that

(47:58):
in different sides of the front can say that the
front is collapsing. If these breakthroughs will not be culled,
will not be resolved somehow. For now we have just
one breakthrough like this, If there will be two or
three more, we can start talking that the front is
starting to collapse, and we can use that not as

(48:19):
a scientific but as more of an ideological term or
political term. If as you can send them up. Yeah,
breakthrough like that will not be able to be resolved
by Ukrainian troops today. One of the military or neo
military bloggers who was saying that today in according to

(48:46):
some data, Ukrainian army has more people who voluntarily left
their detachment than the ones who are fighting. The problem
of Ukraine is not UAVs, not arms, but soldiers life force.
And the problem with that is that the weight is
used is very ineffective and it also keeps running away

(49:09):
and fleeing the locations where they do not see reasonable
to hold. So in such a situation, despite the bravery
and the will of soldiers who are still fighting and
the competence of their commanders, it is very difficult to
maintain the front. Even if we had all soldiers equal

(49:34):
to our officers equal to Alexander Macedonski and Napoleons and
every soldier would be a terminator. With the number of
soldiers we have fighting, the front would still be collapsing.
Listen to that. Hear that. And since far from all
soldiers are terminators, and far from all commanders in Ukraine

(49:56):
are Alexander mckedonski's Alexander the Greats, the collapse of some
parts of the front is triple inevitable. That's why these
two legs that you can see on the map, this
could be the first one right for ten kilometers, but
not the last ones. Do you think Pakrovsk will stand
till the end of summit? No, in general, but yeah,

(50:19):
till summit they will survive. But looking at this situation
up north, I think their situation is pretty dire. That
pincer above Pakrovsk a month ago it did not exist.
There was nothing to predict that they will be breaking
through there. Yet we do not have enough people on

(50:39):
many positions. For example, if you have a soldier for
one one hundred and fifty two hundred and forty days
on the front, this is beyond human capability. I do
not understand how they still fighting. I mean, I understand
how they physically fighting, but that does not bring any
good things to the front, to the stability of the front.

(51:02):
Alexei many times in our streams. Also you did talk
about that balcony and that, oh yeah, it's called operative
balcony over here near a zoom. Situation in Kupensk is
rather horrible and most likely they will occupy that, and
that implies that our forces that are east of Baravaya

(51:24):
will likely be surrounded and perhaps fall into the cauldron.
So Kupensk, laias Konstantinovka, this is the wave where Russian
army and Sebransky forestry district. That's where our forces will

(51:45):
likely have to withdraw with a very high probability, I
would say ninety eight percent that they'll have to go
behind the Black Stallion area. And this was one of
the key elements that precluded Russian groups from joining. So
the moment they move back is when Russia will have
more forces available because they will not have to hold

(52:07):
it onto sides. But we may observe in the next
month or two four big cauldrons slimming on the front.
The map will be more preferential for Russia in this
case and very horrible for Ukraine or less pleasant for
Ukraine if we're speaking diplomaties here. But situation on the

(52:33):
front will also be very visible in the social media
and the posts, and you will see that upset of
Ukrainian society at this situation will be looking for a
way to steam to vent some Vladimir Alexander, which is
already on the position of the one to blame. And

(52:53):
very soon certain negative elements happening on the front will
be added to the current corruption chart. And this is
the recipe of a cocktail that may blow up Ukraine internally,
and then you don't even need to investigate five billions
of cryptocurrency further, this will be enough to raise people
against the government today, Alexei, there were a couple more

(53:16):
interesting things. This breakthrough is a significant news. Everybody were
thinking about this lower area that likely things will be
happening here. Remember Alexandria, when I was talking about some
Russian breakthroughs on the front about a year ago, when
I started talking about them breaking through and crumbling some

(53:37):
parts of our defense, I meant these things things like that.
All right, Alexey, I want to comment more about the
balconies and the events happening now. I think the first
breakthrough was near Stipdwanska forestry. For the ten kilometers it
was acknowledged, not acknowledged and unforgotten, right because it's forest
who cares. But this breakthrough down south is different, and

(54:00):
it's strategic, and it has an influence on Konstantinovka levans Karmatoorsk,
which understandably they will be spending a lot more time
if they try to fight it and occupy the city itself.
I will tell you more, Alexandra. Looking at where the
Russian reserves are concentrating, I think they've made a decision.

(54:25):
Remember a couple of streams ago we could not define
which one will be in priority Karmatoorsk or Zaparogia. And
now we can see that they're concentrating their forces down
south here and on the Parogia. Unless it is an
element of strategic intelligence, they are trying to create a

(54:47):
pincer on the connection between them Pa Petrovsk and the
Parochia districts, and they will give themselves enough of the
area to yep that area, to operate near the Parogia
city and to capture the balance of the Parogi district

(55:09):
as much as they can, and for me it was
a dilemma how they will do that. But this breakthrough
actually answers another important question for us, and the breakthrough
in Kokansk and Sebanski forestry, it tells us that Russian
Command reasonably is basing their estimations on the conclusion that

(55:31):
they have enough forces on the front, given the condition
of the forces that resisting their advancements, that they can
continue pushing on four directions without having to sacrifice one
of them. The Paroi Petrovsk at the bottom, second Krematoor Slevnsk,

(55:53):
third Iszume, fourth is Sebranski forestry. This is basically the
whole front, Alexi, right, Oh, yeah, it is the whole front.
It is very uncomfortable news, fair Crane. I cannot not
ask the next question, Alexei, I think you understand why
so what with these counterattacks of Sisky that we heard about.

(56:18):
We apparently knocked on some doors in Bransk, not too successfully,
but we tried before Trump and put In meeting. I
don't know what the New York takes drivers and Washington
drivers are telling to Alexi, but I hear two options
that Zayanski was gathering his internal circle in a circle,

(56:41):
and he was trying to send a message that we
need to prepare for peace and we need to find
way out. That's one message, and another group is saying
that no, no, no. He was gathering them to try
to generate something unusual, something unexpected, that would affect the
meeting of Trump and put in Alaska, something that can
spoil that meeting. What do you think about z Nansky

(57:03):
and the steps you can make? Well, could have been
two different circles and two different conversations, Alexander. You could
see how his inner circle and enforcement agencies would react
to the statement that the war may end soon. So
he could have made the statement in the inner circle,
and then the court would listen to what the inner

(57:24):
circle is saying when they're going to saunas and drinking
with them and going to different events. So Americans are
considering that there may be some provocations tied to that summit,
tied to that meeting of Putin and Trump. Perhaps another
drone that flies into some Chernobyl Nuclear power station. Remember

(57:47):
back during the Mini Conference of Security that I was attending,
how people were trying to peddle that similar situation, but
it didn't fly. What is the concerning thing for Ukraine.
The concerning thing is that if the war will be

(58:09):
somehow wrapped up, there will be a sei is fire implemented.
The stable perch that these people Party of War used
to rely upon will disappear immediately. If they would use
a way to slowly close the front with slow retreat,

(58:33):
that is one situation. However, if the funds are out
and AMO is not there, the front will start collapsing
right in front of the eyes, and that will dismantle
all the rhetoric that we can handle Russian invasion even
on our own. So the main stool that this Party

(58:54):
of War is standing about that Russia will fall apart,
that is protected by economists like Lipsits, that RuSHA will
fall apart and perhaps run away all the way to Vladivostak.
The next few months may show that oops, Russia is
still fighting somehow and Ukrainian troops are getting caught in

(59:17):
cauldrons and becoming prisoners of war somehow. So if the
ceasefire doesn't happen immediately, the next few months will dismantle
the rhetoric for the Party of War that the front
will not be able to collapse. The collapse in front
will change the rhetoric. This factor did not exist for

(59:42):
the last three years, but if it starts happening more rapidly,
this will change the feeling of war that our citizens have.
Right a le I say, I'm seeing some analytics here.
One of the experts is quoting that almost everywhere their
breakthroughs Kupnsk, Stepnagorsk golden Well. Some people are saying that

(01:00:05):
Russian diversion groups are entering or grey zone is expending.
But all the pockets, all the cauldrons are likely to
be shut one after another, and the whole front eventually
will look as a more straightened line. Do you think
Ukrainians are ready for defeat? No, of course not, because
for that they would have to create to go through

(01:00:27):
one impossible thing. They need to acknowledge that they have
been wrong these three years, which is mostly impossible. Most
people try prefer to die than to acknowledge that they've
been wrong. One needs a lot of bravery to acknowledge
that he has been wrong, more bravery than you need
to even continue fighting on the front. Civilian bravery costs

(01:00:50):
a lot more than military bravery, especially in the situation
when the loudest ones are screaming for continuation of this warp.
And what surprises me as I'm observing this event, how
many people are on both sides of the front who
are refusing to acknowledge that they've been wrong, just to

(01:01:12):
acknowledge that I was wrong on something. But life treats them,
reality cures them. Adislovich and Shellist can be beeping something here,
these scoundrels that have sold their souls to devil, But
the life itself will likely change them the people's point
of view much faster than we can hear. So the

(01:01:36):
last two and a half three years seems like Aristovitch
is only talking about some fears that are not likely
to happen the last two years right since I left
the administration. But the changes are accumulating gradually but realizing rapidly.
And for two years people were quite sure that Dslovitch

(01:01:58):
is wrong about predicting things, and now they're seeing with
their own eyes that these predictions actually are happening, and
they're about to start asking themselves question how come Russia
was supposed to collapse economically and instead we are failing.
We were expecting for putin to call for ceasefire because

(01:02:19):
he cannot advance any further. Yet, we're losing the silver forestry,
we're losing Kupansk, and we're about to lose Krematovsk. They
are operatively already in semi circle, and a big fist
is going towards the Parogy city with a perspective of
cutting it away from the rest of Ukraine and surrounding

(01:02:42):
the city. And perhaps something may continue happening in Hiroson
and situation there is also difficult. Russian started the operation
in isolating certain parts of a district from another, which
looks like a situation where they try to split the
Harson city into parts and start their military operations there,

(01:03:06):
perhaps even tactical, but already on the right bank. And
then what's happening. Aristovich and cellists were correct, and I
have to acknowledge that I was wrong, that I was
laughing at him, and I was wrong at that. No,
people usually are not brave enough to acknowledge their mistakes

(01:03:26):
like that. People are usually weak, and all the treachery
and continuation of this war is using it as a
fertile ground that weakness. Ukrainians have a ton of military courage,
and they completely lack civilian courage these days. End of
the first hour

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