War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1292: War Trends that Commander Syrsky Will Not Report On. Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, dear friends, my guests and subscribers to mine Alexis channels.
This is our usual Monday stream to put all the
dots over the eyes and cross alties and tell you
everything that all the other news we're talking about for
the last week, but give a deeper perspective. Good evening,
Good evening, Colus. In reality, we do not have much

(00:23):
of smiling moments this week to celebrate. Just want to
say that. As always, the format of the stream is
the same. Please participate in attectively. There'll be a session
of Q and A at the end and we'll start
with them. Of course, cure code next to Alexei is
link to his school of Thought and Communication. I'm not
using anything about personal growth, sorry, Alexei. I misunderstoed. Right,

(00:49):
it's a school of thought and communication that will enable
you enable your personal growth, all right, So don't forget
to scan that if you're curious. Also, you can scan
the barcode on your left side of a screen under Alexander.
That's where you can ask questions and send a tip
and say thank you for hosting these streams. We are

(01:10):
right now broadcasting on both channels, so pick the one
where you want to see it, or if you're watching
and recording of course just as fine and English translation
is provided by privateer station. All right, so let's start
with the main topics. The perspectives will talk about the
front today, but here I think there is an importance

(01:34):
of a conceptual thought. And I'm looking at the preliminary
results of the polling. Our polling today. Is name the
year out of the ones that we suggest when Ukraine,
in your opinion, made the wrong turn? And there are
four options ninety one, two thousand and four, twenty fourteen,

(01:55):
and twenty twenty two. Alex say, do you have an sir?
Is there an option all of these years? I would
say all of these years, really, all these milestones, or
you can say during the whole thirty four years since
nineteen ninety one, the whole pith Ukraine took was riddled

(02:18):
with theirs. And if we are taking the really deadliest
and wrongest of those turns was twenty fourteen. That's as
my done, activist with a lot of experience, who's looking
back at my history and saying no, twenty fourteen was

(02:38):
a serious error. First my done, I was participating at
it quite actively. But I second observed and was witnessing
that was going in the wrong way first, also had
a lot of mistakes. Okay, guys, please continue voting. I'm
quite surprised with the preliminary results poll. We'll get back

(03:01):
to that later. So let's get to our events at hand,
the events that seem to us that look like a
one hundred and eighty turn from any peace trends or
any agreements. The symbol of that since yesterday is the

(03:21):
burning minister's office. The whole Iscander missile, or probably a
piece of it hid it. Sidydenka was there today. She
tour guided diplomats from foreign countries for in dignitaries, and
this is presented as the reason to escalate sanctions against

(03:44):
Russia to aid Ukraine with more resources. And do you
think that the burning cabinet of one of the ministers
can become a symbol of another stage of this war?
When you know, sometimes in sport you can runner who's
nearly done and then suddenly the second breath opens and
he starts running gain. Do you think that could be this?

(04:09):
All right, Alexander, let's say this. If it was a
military report, it should have been written in this fashion
as a result of a combined drone and missile attack
on the city. The building of Ministers, Cabinet Ministers was damaged.

(04:30):
The fact that they're showing that it was an element
of a ballistic missile that did not explode, let's say
that it's probably a version because with all my due
respect to the building that was built in nineteen thirties,
is can their ballistic missile, in my opinion, would have

(04:50):
destroyed even without exploding, would have destroyed a bigger chunk
of it. And then, okay, if it is a part
of it that fell from the missile and destroyer caused
all the damage, where did the missile go? Where was
it going itself? Second, where was the original target? Why

(05:10):
rather they would attack the Cabinet of Ministers. If you
put yourself in the enemy's shoes when you're picking the targets,
why would you be targeting this building to do? What?
To assassinate nice looking Jules Ridenka. She doesn't work there

(05:32):
at night? So or they were looking for a compromise, right,
somebody suggested to hit the office of the President. Somebody
suggested it was a proponent of hitting the Radha the
Congress of Ukraine. And then they figured a compromise to
be Cabinet of ministers to warn everybody. But that's a
uh yeah, I'm just being sarcastic here. Cabinet of Ministers

(05:56):
is basically a printer for the laws that were taken
by Congress and execution of them by the government. Destroying printer.
Not too big of a deal. Yeah, I think we
are being shown a result of some attack with some

(06:16):
decorations and some interesting elements in it to try to
ignite the bigger and say let's punish them back. But
it's difficult to say what exactly happened there. Alex say,
they did take the fire out rather quickly, and it
was only today that they showed the elements of Dismissile

(06:37):
to diplomats. First of all, they said that it's iScan there.
Somehow they determined that, and that the fire was caused
by the propellant from the engine of dismissile. But what
this version gives to everybody, to us, to Zenanwski's government,
it's another card that says, listen, the war continues. They

(06:57):
keep attacking us. We need to push back. Then we
see a lot of commentators and experts in the media
who are now talking about oh, we'll hit Kremlin, will
hit the cabinet of ministers in Russia. And one can
ask an important question in this regard that escalation that
we are to expect this autumn. Will it be absolute

(07:20):
escalation or it'll be also decorative like the one we're
observing here. Do you mean absolute that we'll be using
everything they have in our arsenal by both sides and
going beyond the taboo parts of this war that we're
not hitting government quarters. I think Ukraine already broke that

(07:41):
taboo when UIV hit one of the Kremlin buildings. I
think it was twenty two or twenty three. Russians didn't
change much after that. Right after they get their horses going,
they just keep going on the trail. They suck at
pr but they are pretty good as a bulldozer. So

(08:05):
another idea that this was a conspiracy theory to allow
ourselves to hit Kremlin. Okay, theoretically it might have some weight,
but we need more data. Let's see what happens. I
think for now it can remind me mostly the result

(08:25):
of remember Russian UAVs that hit the fourth block of
the nuclear station during the summit, that was not reacted
to as expected, where everybody were giggling that right, that
happened right for the summit, so that may be just
that kind of event. There was no splash back then.
Maybe they're trying to generate the same media splash out

(08:47):
of this event. I don't see anybody overly excited. Yeah,
there were pictures of the burning cabinet ministers, but it
didn't escalate the moods much. So escalation threatens us with
more serious hits. And twenty minutes ago before the streams
and Enscape came out with another statement saying that Russians

(09:10):
will continue hitting us and they concentrate their strikes against
our energy systems. And this is growing into some semi
hysterical story. We're all power banks and energy generators are
now rising in price in Ukraine. Sure, we're going into

(09:33):
the we're looking into winter now, right autumn winter cold
times of the year, So of course these elements will
be hyped and will the prices will be rising, and
then of course they'll be propagating. Hey keep crying, this
is horrible, but they'll continue doing what they're doing. In
regards to Zennski's government, there'll be somebody will be making

(09:56):
money on this, Russians will continue doing what they intend
to do. They were destroying energy systems and subsystems, and
they will continue targeting them. Their logic is rather clear
the blackouts. Energy blackouts cause stoppage in industrial production and
military transportation and activities, and it creates additional pressure on

(10:17):
the people in the country, and it affects everything from
actual military planning, military production, to transportation of troops along
the front, electric railcars and all that. We are hitting
their oil refiners. They're answering on our trans formation stations

(10:40):
for electric grid because we don't have too much oil
refiners in the country. They are looking for adequate targets
ale to say, so, where's the end to all this?
The end will be in the change of projectivity for Ukraine.
Russian Federation essentially is conducting this war to change the
project of the and the weirdest part of it is that,

(11:05):
except for the territory that Russia wants to annex, all
the other demands that they express are basically in line
with the Ukrainian constitution, and Ukraine is fighting to neglect
the articles of their constitution, their independence Charter, and a
bunch of other laws and treaties so it's a very

(11:25):
uncomfortable position to be waging the war in. You know,
it's amazing, Alexay that on the backdrop of these events,
General Command is still inventing victories for us. They recently
reported about liberating some village near Lyman Sirski yesterday, as
they say, farted in the puddle and said that we

(11:50):
have liberated five times more than we have lost. And
meanwhile Russians are still pressing us at Nipple Petrovsk region's border,
and we are observing that who is the target of
this soul weird and false messaging. If before we had

(12:12):
significant layers of society who were reacting to this, and
we're still believing that, yes, we can go and push back.
But it's the fourth year of this year, and they
pretend that they don't We didn't have the past three
years experience. First of all, Alexander, they don't seem to
have an option. They only have this strategy, and they

(12:34):
do have a big billboard where they keep writing everything
they want to write behind, which is a very rough
reality of a system that continues to suck the blood
out of the country. Destroy Ukraine, continues to send people
to the front to die and refuse us to find
a solution for a peace treaty, and they're just maintaining

(12:57):
this billboard shiny so that people hopefully would be just
looking at it hypnotized and would not be paying attention
to what is happening behind that billboard. I did not
think that I would live to the moment when I
see that in this ession, and that I will have
to be quoting Steanyenka who wrote today that the half

(13:18):
of UV's that Ministry of Defense are purchasing are unusable,
They're not worthy. Oh yeah, sixty percent that what he wrote, Yeah, exactly.
And I had my inner sources that we're talking about that.
But I'm thankful that now official is coming out and
saying that. And this is an answer to President coming

(13:39):
out and saying that we are going to pay more
attention to military industrial complex, right when last year it
produced only half of what was paid for. And now
with the drones, giving that they're one of the main
tools to cause damage to our enemy, half of them
are not usable. This is complete garbage. And General Command

(14:03):
is making purchases by the advice of Minister of Defense
where they need to buy. So of course there are
some kickbacks, and I'm sure office of the President is
connected to it. And this is all being done on
the blood of citizens and soldiers, and it's up to
citizens to believe or not to believe to these fairy
tales that are being written about it. And of course

(14:25):
the sky may come out and say that, yes, we're
still pushing, but nobody is talking about overall dynamics. Nobody
is talking that Russians are going forward over here and
we're barely holding there. There's no bigger picture that the
general command was saying. Mariana came out right after him

(14:48):
and said, please do not bother my ears with talking
about successes about some separate village. Of course you can
find the village that you can take back for a
day or two on the length of a thousand kilometers front.
The fact that Russians will take it back in a week,
And how much have we lost fighting for this twenty
six square kilometers in this village. So when one can

(15:15):
ask when was the war fought with the metrics of
square kilometers, almost never want to say completely never. The
war is never about square kilometers. The war is about
achieving political goals by other means and destroying of your opponent.
It's not about square kilometers. One can remind that German

(15:37):
military had taken so many square kilometers in the first
half of their war. Even in the First World War,
they took a lot of territory. Not a single enemy
soldier put their foot on the territory of Germany in
the First World War. Yet Germany has lost if you
measure in square kilometers. Yeah, the First World War, Germany

(15:57):
fought and won right, but as a result it lost
and then they got the very more republic. We'll talk
about the friend today, Alexey. The very interesting commentary about Sumi,
Slavansky and Kramatoorsk. So brief spoiler here what Aristovitch was
telling us in the previous streams about the balcony, about

(16:20):
Russians threatening to encircle all that is getting in motion
and it's becoming more and more visible. You know, Alexander,
how much would I give to be wrong, to have
made huge mistakes in my predictions? But unfortunately Yeah, side note,
All right, Alexey, I want to continue this story. It's

(16:41):
an interesting one about Ukrainians who are not just being
led to. But the further this neo feodal system is
being integrated into society, people find themselves rather surprisingly already
integrated in it. For me, for example, one of the

(17:03):
news that I put in the top headers in my
channel in Vinizza, women were fighting for a man to
not be drafted by drafting commission. On the first of August,
there was that incident and then they were arrested and
they were basically told that since you were obstructing Ukrainian military,

(17:27):
you will be facing jail time between five to eight years. Right,
so alex say formally, Alexander. Formally it looks like everything
is legal, right, or they're just following the letter of
the law. Informally, this is a repression of their populace.
You do have battalions who pose for the pictures, but

(17:49):
they're nowhere near the front. We do have reserves that
we can send there, and of course the other groups
of artists and bloggers and the rest, who who bring
some attention to what's happening and who share how they
all served in the decorative battalions, who were sitting in
the office in Kiev and who had battles with cognac

(18:14):
and chocolates daily. Meantime, the population is being attacked this way,
so what I can say always look at the triangle
decoration reality and the ruling power and poor people who
run between these lights. And now those women are facing
eight years in jail because they fought, defended off their

(18:37):
husband or friend from the drafting commission. Well, Alexay and
even Boykov, the official comes out and says that we
have one hundred thousand people defecting the front in the
last couple months, right, Alexander, The army is about eight

(18:58):
hundred and eighty thousand to official documents. All together, Minister
of Defense has about one point two million people. So
a quarter of our army currently is on the run,
has defected, left their positions under somewhere over one hundred
thousand of them. Forgetting to the name of the congressman

(19:21):
who mentioned that over one hundred thousand of those who
are drafted are not exactly fit for duty for medical
or other reasons. So these people are technically in the army.
They're getting paid, they're getting food, clothes, but they cannot
really fight. So add them to this number, you have

(19:41):
three hundred thousand plus another one hundred thousand, that's four
hundred thousand. Every third serviceman is not participating in the
war and cannot participate in this war for different reasons,
either limited worth or health, or or they have left

(20:02):
their detachments and they're nowhere near nowhere to be seen.
This is a problem that some bloggers wrote before that
only ten percent of those who are drafted and sent
to training centers, only about ten to twenty percent of
them actually reached the front. And this is the problem
that Syski will never talk about because it's easy to
talk about capturing the village. Sure you exercised some muscle

(20:24):
and taking it back, but as a bigger trend, they're
afraid to talk about that. Everything is designed in the
way they're reporting that people would not be seeing the vectors,
they would not be seeing the trends. They try to
infantilize the awareness of consuming audience and try to manage

(20:44):
them by bright flashes of events, not by trends, not
by strategies, and they compress information into small flashes that
somehow supposedly feeds their hunger for data, and it just
corrupts their soul, corrupts their brain, like, hey, we destroyed
five Russian boats on that ru Okay, well so, And

(21:08):
this is the in my view, one of the worst
crimes that this government can do against the army, against
the soldiers, against its people. This is the corruption of
brains and conscience of its people. It makes people primitive, dumb,

(21:31):
makes an audience capable of reacting in just yes, no fashion.
This approach kills an ability to think in the Ukraine,
an ability to adequately analyze situation, and it's a very
surer way to destroy the country. In general, Ukrainian national

(21:52):
idea is not too complementary to rational ideas. It's more
about pathos, about feelings and emotions. But with this approach,
they're killing the remnants of logic. Look, everybody who is thinking,
they're either publicly smart, they're either in prison or they're
forced immigration. And the main guilt I wouldn't even put

(22:16):
on the office of the president. I'd put it on
everybody who supports it, leaders of public opinion, pro government, bloggers,
official media, although selling these ideas or trying to sell
these crazy ideas to the populace. I like, say Nikolavitch.
We had a very strong and legendary Minister of Foreign

(22:38):
Affairs Kuleba for a while, and he was caught today
in a big scandal when Italian Carrierra de la Serre
is publishing material describing that he fled the country as
a thief at night who left Ukraine and is now
in Poland and Krakov. A formal reason for his departure
was the conference in South Korea, but the article explains

(23:04):
it further that the government of Zelenski was preparing an
order to prohibit past diplomats like Koliba to cross the border.
Koloba heard about disorder and managed to leave the country
a few hours before this law came in force. Zelenski
and his people, according to his words, do not want

(23:27):
people from the government or x representatives of the government
to come out of the country, leave the country and
contradict the official statements of President of Ukraine and his authority.
According to Kuleba, he thinks, and he is telling that
to journalists that this order is targeting him and a

(23:47):
bunch of other professionals who were working for a while
for Ukraine and who did not share everything that Zelenski
is trying to push outwardly who have different so opinion,
and he's basically saying that Zelanski's government tried to limit
his option for departure from the country and keep him

(24:08):
in Ukraine. And what's interesting is that later in the
press service of Minister they said that this is just
journalists who misunderstood. Everything is all right. Don't listen to
those Italians who published that they did not have a
good translator and something was lost in translation. But I
think this is a fantastic story. Kuleba is fighting for

(24:31):
his freedom. Yes, this is a fantastic story that has
a good chance of becoming even more fascinating, because if
Zelenski eventually will implement sanctions against Kuleba, they'll be laughable.
Among eight thousand people, eight thousand Ukrainians who are under
sanctions these days, we already will have his Minister of

(24:54):
his speaker, his Minister of Foreign Affairs, and a bunch
of other high level figures, including myself, who had started
this war and were basically the face and the voice
of Ukraine. So one can ask a good question from Zelensky,
maybe those Italians when they'll be talking to Zenanski. How

(25:15):
does it come that all you're surrounding figures gradually fall
under sanctions that you implement on them. Why is that happening?
Why do you think, alex say, why it happens? Well,
we have, in my opinion, because we have a very small,
poorly shaved Stalin. Stalin was at least shaving that Zelensky doesn't,

(25:35):
and he thinks he knows how to prescribe everybody, how
to love Ukraine, where to look, where not to look,
and in a way, this is a game. Political Ukrainianism,
i think, is religious sect in a way, and every
sect works in only one fashion. There's only one leader

(25:56):
that needs to remain alive. It can be milder, but
the vector is always the same. If there'll be enough
time that passed, and if we allow this situation to
continue down the sector, we might see Yermak leaving the
country and getting sanctioned, and Zelensky will be the only
ones thing. They might not have enough time to get

(26:17):
that far, but the vector is going there. It's in
that direction. Everybody who can think, and everybody whose thoughts
differ from mainstream often or on occasion, they're all written
to the list of non patriotic Ukrainians. And Kuleba was
rather patriotic. He was talking a lot of things, even

(26:39):
sometimes more patriotic than Zelenski. We had Parashenka who was
bringing complete IDoc out ten times more patriotic than Zelensky,
and yet he was sanctioned too, and by the way,
he was sanctioned alongside with me at about the same
time as both Kerry very different, very juxtaposed vectors. As

(27:05):
some people accuse me and you of peddling pro Russian
view not in my view, no or not. But Parashanka
is definitely the complete opposite direction. So when people are
saying that Parashanka and Ristovitch are on the sanctions because
they're pro Russian, well look at what they're saying. These people, Kuleba,

(27:25):
for example, in Parashanka, they're ultra patriotic. Right. If that
continues in this fashion, I think we'll see that there'll
be continuation to this matter. The fact that Kuleba has
left Ukraine, it indicates that he doesn't want to continue
to work with Zilanskin to find some agreement with him. Remember,

(27:50):
back in the twentieth century, people were trying to leave you, Sesar,
they were shot at. We have people who are being
shot at for trying to leave the country and Ukraine
and pseudo patriotic media is posting a lot of incidents
when people die trying to leave the country. Plus there

(28:11):
were bigger incidents. There was a pilot de Lenka who
hijacked one of the Russian jut fighters back in the
eighties to Japan. He recently, I think, has died in
his birthday in States. Whatever. One day, they were even
trying to, I think, hijack the boat from Soviet Union,
right the navy. But have you ever seen a minister

(28:33):
leaving Soviet Union, running fleeing to the other side. In Ukraine,
you have a minister today, a Minister of Foreign Affairs,
posting that, look, I managed to leave the country before
the trap has closed. Soviet intelligence was always criticizing its power,
right Yeah, on the kitchens, in the families, people were
always talking about propaganda and how it's different from reality.

(28:57):
And the Soviet Union fell apart because of that difference,
because of the delta between the billboard and what was
in reality. But what Ukraine is doing today is the
difference is five times more than what Soviet Union was
doing back then. Ministers and advisors of Communist Party have
never fled in the Soviet Union. Now imagine that a

(29:19):
person like me or a speaker for Communist Party ran
from the Soviet Union. In my story, a little different,
I was not let in. But even understanding that didn't work.
Didn't happen. Yes, intelligence officers always were running, but officials
no never. Yes, Zelenski, I guess scored here today Urban

(29:43):
was saying interesting things. Of course, before our stream, it
became known that in France, indeed there's some change of
government to happen soon, there'll be a new cabinet administers,
so they have a problem there, a political crisis. And

(30:03):
Urban is saying that Lipen is not being allowed to
the elections because otherwise they're afraid she will win. So
he's bringing light into all that kitchen, and he also
sheds some light about conversations in European elites about Ukraine
and is giving a very interesting scenario similar to what
we have heard before maybe five or seven weeks ago

(30:28):
when we talked with you, Oh from them that istvage
exactly three Ukraines, one Russian, second demilitarized and not understandable
whether it's forty kilometers or two hundred kilometers zone that's demilitarized.
And the third is the Western and the problem is
that we cannot understand Western Ukraine. Is that the one

(30:54):
that has troops preparations the one that will allow to
be joined. It will be allowed to join Europe. We
only don't understand what will be the borders. What do
you think, like say about this? I think sooner or later,
maybe twenty seven or if it's lower, by twenty thirty five.

(31:17):
What it goes to is that the east and south
of Ukraine, the lens of imperial acquisition by Russian Empire,
will be in the fold of Russian federation. Ukraine may
not be agreeing with that, Europe may not be in
agreement with that, but that's what likely will be captured
by Russia. All getmun lends like Conder Kamennitski about nine

(31:41):
districts I think central Ukraine. Don't know how much demilitarized
will it be, but it will be some central Ukraine
according to the declaration of independence that will be rather quiet,
similar to Bosnia, without an exit to the sea, and
probably very spiky, very well armed and resisting probably everybody,

(32:06):
some supposedly western Ukraine armed to the teeth. The question
what will happen to it and whether it will be
accepted to NATO and how will it govern itself? Also
because all these people who are trying to quarrel with
everybody will graduate to that side of Ukraine. Another interesting

(32:32):
fact that is hidden behind the freed villages and the
flying flamingo drones. We're now in a big quarrel with
five neighbors. Three of them are the countries of EU
and NATO. So majority of the countries a quarreled with
are EU and NATO countries. Are these countries also targeting

(32:56):
Ukraine to be dismantled and capture all of our resources.
Is that I were fighting with them, and in that
western Ukraine there'll be all these interesting persons who are
super excited about different reasons and things, and very spiky
and very uncomfortable to deal with. So I'm afraid there'll

(33:16):
be some sanctions slapped on that country. Most likely Central
Ukraine will be doing a little better. We're actually inviting
all Ukrainians who are around the world and who want
to rebuild something after this big conflict to come back
to Today. It was announced that Trump is waiting for
the messenger suspected it'll be Ursula Wonderland to talk about

(33:45):
Ukraine with EU. So look, it's an interesting story here.
Ukraine is not even being called to this meeting EU
and the United States are now discussing sanctions against Russia.
One side is saying, you implement, now, you implement. We can't.
We can't as well, we have assets. And Zidansky is

(34:07):
standing aside. He's not even an active participant, to tell
the truth. I remember this narrative when it was broadcasted
time and time again from Zidansky office. Not a word
about Ukraine without Ukraine. Now that's what we're seeing. Key
negotiations between EU and States are happening without Ukraine. Whether

(34:29):
Trump will succeed in bending Europe over and what will
be produced at the end, and that European plan. When
first Sidanskyan and Putin have to meet, then Zdansky, Putin
and Trump need to meet together. Then these three plus
somebody from you need to meet, and then we'll get
to the ceasefire, into some final stages and there'll be

(34:50):
some diplomacy and it'll be better for everybody. That's what
was voiced from the meeting of Coalition of the Willing
by Macron as a position, what do you think what
is happening in the context of peace negotiations, whether there

(35:11):
is a way to resolve this war in a peace
treaty between EU and States and why Ukraine is set
aside Alexander. There will be no ceasefire, there'll be no peace,
There'll be just a dump of responsibility onto Europe. There
is some information floating that United States are now considering
removal of their troops from Baltic countries and leaving Baltic

(35:34):
countries to be a protectorate of EU. And that's why
russul of Underline was visiting Baltic countries when the incident
with Russian electromagnetic interference nearly lost her jet lost her
plane because they lost all the GPS bearings and they

(35:56):
had to fly by map. We can also defer to
the statement made by Mertz, who is very pro Ukrainian
and very anti Russian, who said that we cannot technically
deal with Russia without support from the United States. So
he already gave his verdict. And the problem is that
the United States do want EU to deal with Russian

(36:17):
issue without US. And look at this this way. Three
hundred and forty eight bombs were supposed to be transferred
to Ukraine as additional tool and that Ukraine will use
them against Russian targets and Russians will form the knees

(36:39):
and ask for ceasefire, and suddenly we'll learn that this
year we'll only get ten bombs, and then we'll be
getting seventy bombs a month till twenty twenty six. I think, so,
what's that about. It's about nothing in the war of
the current state of this size. This is for local

(37:00):
field advancement. This is not any serious factor. So many
bombs a month, that's your super support. But the United
States at least can manufacture these bombs and send them.
Cannot say that about Europe. Current European leadership is probably
the worst that Europe had during the last two thousand

(37:24):
years of its existence, or at least the last four hundred.
They're very helpless, and these statements that we will tell Trump,
Putin and Zenanski, when do they have to meet and
what do they have to do? You know, sometimes a

(37:44):
three year old can come to the table where adults
sit and can stomp his little feet and tell everybody
who needs to go where and what to do. People
at the table look at this little kid and he
looks touchy. Yeah, it's very curious to observe him. That's
about the feeling I get when the Coalition of the

(38:08):
wandering in Europe is trying to tell Trump sits in
pin and put in what they have to do. There
will be no peace. In my opinion, if the prime
minister of one of the EU countries is saying publicly
that there'll be three Ukraines, you can imagine what conversations
do they have that are not becoming public. These conversations

(38:31):
are not being born out of nothing. They're being born
from two things, from trauma and from the existing material.
And I advise our listeners to think what's driving this
statement more trauma or the material. Well, the war continues
in its own fashional actually right, oh yeah, it will

(38:53):
continue to go the way it does. We understand that
their first screens showing that Danetska is getting hit. Now
yesterday they hit uh the entertainment park and then Makievka
in suburbs hit something near Danyetsk. Maybe that was the

(39:18):
targeted attack as well. Yeah, of course there's a threat
to oil refineries and to other industrial elements there and
uh the airport. So what do you think these problems

(39:41):
give to Ukraine? What's the next phase? I heard, probably
the brightest one I heard recently is that we don't
have enough people. Sunday, in Daily Mail published an opinion
addressing Europeans saying that on one hand you're saying that

(40:01):
Russia is so evil that you need to package Ravioli
and make sure that you have ways to feed yourself
to survive, build bunkers against Russian possible attacks, and train
your people to wear gas masks and how to defend themselves.
And on the other hand you continue saying that Russian

(40:22):
economy is falling apart, it's weak, that Trump is needed
to just a little bit nudge Russia so it falls
off the cliff. Well, if it is it frail or
do we need to prep for a prolonged conflict? Yes, Alexandra,
this is a typical schizophrenia that is very obvious when

(40:44):
you look at the billboard that has something written on
it that put In is whatever expectives they're using, and
even on the billboard, very often they forgot to connect
things together. With your left eye, you're reading that Putin
is a frail old man who will die probably the

(41:07):
night of tomorrow and everything will freeze in Russia, and
the right eye is reading that Putin is the worst
of the enemies in the recent decades. Who already converted
Trump into his camp, and he is creating another black
hole in our galaxy because of his presence. So that's

(41:29):
what a you is currently doing. Like Grute is saying,
Russia is not a threat, we will we do not
need to exacerbate our military industrial complex, and if we'll
have to somehow punish them, will just stop using their gas.
And on the other hand, you're reading all these materials
that in Germany you need to make sure we produce
an aff ravioli, enough long storage foods that can help

(41:52):
us to weather be conflict, and we need Bunker's system
to be revived. Do you understand what that system is
doing with you? That it's probably not something that you
would want to be done right, and it's being forced
on you right exactly, it's forced. And on this backdrop,

(42:20):
there are special services fighting in Ukraine, those three four
letter agencies conflicting each other, one avenging the other. People
are interested in where Zelenski's money, Where are the records
of from mid Ditch apartment, and some people are publishing

(42:43):
the size of money is that Zelensky was getting his
kickbacks from those gray schemas. So everybody seems to know
a lot of things, but nobody is reacting to that.
Do you think that Ukrainians are so passive because this
narrative pro power, narrative of eternal fight. Like achilles father

(43:09):
is saying that I'll be teaching him. The kid was
just born, but his parents already planning that he will fight,
he will be a warrior, even though the kid is
just not aware where he is or what he is yet.
Is that what society is doing in Ukraine and they're
pretending to not understand because it's more comfortable. Well, sure, yeah,

(43:33):
the leaders and their sub layer are completely satisfied with
the country. There is no conflict between them. And as
we know, revolutions are not done by people, people usually
jumping on the last wagon when the revolution is happening.
Usually it's leaders in conflict with their assistants who create
the revolution. Unfortunately, we do not have that, and we

(44:00):
do not even have any worldview between these two groups
difference because there is no worldview. There's just the worldview
of getting money, making money, and getting rich, and that's
what leads you to buying sixty percent of you uivs
that cannot be used on the front and making money
on the blood of soldiers and dying people near the front.

(44:25):
If I was in that position, I would off myself.
But these people live, okay, they make money on this,
and the very worst case, if there's attention to them,
they'll put some Ukrainian national dress and will tear it
apart on their chest and scream free Ukraine. This all

(44:47):
is I understand, Okay, these people are very unprincipled creatures.
What I'm curious is why people allow that to be
done to them a lexi. But what can people well
at least not to agree with this. They do agree,

(45:07):
they do support just like that plug chicken. Remember how
Stalin taught to deal with people. If you pluck the hen,
it will not run anywhere. It'll be coming closer to
your leg because it's warmer. It'll feel weird. So I

(45:29):
was hoping that there'll be some people who will lead,
some leadership, some opposition will went to that, but again,
most of these people are in emigration. Alexander Tahtai, the
journalist who was investigating the research of kickbacks in Sumi District,

(45:51):
that a lot of fortifications were not built when the
money were split between the authorities. He was found dead
in Summa district and local media is accusing him of
being Russian pro Russian agent. Yeah, that happened today, Ale say.
It's also a similar story is being said about the

(46:12):
murder of Partaby. They placed a brand on him, that
he was thinking about different things and that he is
just a pro Russian. He's a separatist. He is in prison,
he killed the patriot. Very simple solution. This journalist who

(46:32):
was investigating corruption, is he a journalist? No, no, no,
he's a separatist. No, now he's in the ground. Very
simple binary worldview. I want to say that a meter
deep trench it takes about one hundred years for it
to completely heal, to disappear in nature. And we've dug

(46:57):
so many trenches across the souls of our people and
the heads of our people that I don't know how
long it will take to grow over. Ukraine is not
just one of the most unluckiest post Soviet countries that
flushed so much capital down the drain that now it's
also with some sadism and enjoyment, is destroying itself. Okay,

(47:18):
So you take Hitler for example, he brought a lot
of death and damage to humanity, and he didn't like
a lot of peoples, but at least he loved Germans.
These ones are destroying their own people, and this is
a mechanism that continues to grind its own people with
more effectiveness than Russians on the front everything thinking and

(47:43):
everything that moves and lives. Alex say, why did Illuzy
today protest against Anne Yutebka in London? She's a Russian
opera singer. Is it related to materials of German press

(48:07):
that was basically giving us? They had the lead of
the nord stream blow up a Zulutionni, as they indicate
one of my friends at today Alexander. Apparently, and I'm
quoting somehow Zolutionni turned out to be a very knowledgeable

(48:29):
person in the opera singing, perhaps he should perform a
soprano in tosca and each tone that he performs will
be sung in care, with loving care for Ukraine. Then
the other person said, no, no, he should be seeing
a figure out rather, And I'm not giving names who
was discussing that, but yeah, with all my respect and

(48:55):
friendship back in the day, with very bitter lack of understanding,
I'm looking at his actions. Who is advising him why
is he making these decisions? The person who at a
certain stage could have been something new for the Ukrainian
system is now falling apart with such a speed and

(49:18):
crumbling with such a speed that it amazes me how
many more things does he smash head on into. I
can only be sorry for him to lead. Suddenly. If
I find him leading a protest against an opera singer

(49:39):
in London his recent position we need to become new Israel,
I would ask him what are the basis? What is
the basis for the statement? Anybody but the commander of
the Achilles detachment or just you two who want to

(50:03):
be a new Israel? What about the rest who do
not want to? Well, just like in a military, if
you can't, will teach you. If you don't want to,
will force you. Right, oh yeah, right? And then you
come up with an idea of several Ukraines because Ukraines
have very different Ukrainians have a very different point of view. Right.

(50:23):
The thing is that those Ukrainians who are in Ukrainian
insurgency army dugout. They are now holding hostage. They hold Ukraine.
So one would want to probably put them somewhere where
they would deal with each other, take them out of
the society and let the rest of Ukrainians live in
the country that does not attack Russian interests, that do

(50:48):
not attack Hungarian, Belarus or Polish interests, who just love Ukraine.
You can just love Ukraine. You don't have to attack others.
You don't have to attack your neighbors. You can love
Ukrainian music culture. How can you not love it? They're wonderful.
But why do we need to live with people and
be hostages to people who think that loving Ukrainian means

(51:13):
hating everything else when you have to be some breed
of political Ukrainian. Okay, Lets say, let's also touch briefly
about the situation on the front this Monday. I think
it's principally important first of all, that we have very interesting, negative,

(51:39):
not good, but very important trends on the battlefront. Let's
bring the map up. Let's look at the north. The
north gave us some sensations there in Summa Yunakovka that
our authorities were saying that we are taking it back,

(52:01):
we're holding it andre on the other side of Sumi,
and apparently Russians are advancing into Nikovka, and there is
a little bit of forest and Sumi district is very
very close. There's a small river before it. Drones are

(52:22):
already attacking Sumi. Sumi city administration is not functioning because
Russians combined Shahad and Lancet drones and now they have
another model that also gives a visual real time as
it goes. So it is being driven by the visual

(52:45):
by side, and these drones are being used on Sumi
and our counter electronic affairs have no tools, no ways
to disrupt it yet. So what is happening there? Why
they're active district, Well, there's a fight happening there. Russians

(53:07):
want to create a demilitarized zone and now our political
leadership does not want to give them this chance and
to push them back to Kursk district. And this fight
is with different success on both sides. There were times
when Sisky was taking troops from Pakross district and sending
them there and telling that look, we are now pushing

(53:29):
them back and summing. But meantime Russians were pressing harder
in Pokrovski. So now it's situational zebra there. We're succeeding
in some things and we're losing in some other things.
Russians probably threw a bit more detachments to that part

(53:50):
of the front, and we likely send some of the
troops to the Brapolia. This is tactical stuff. This is
who picked which village? That's not so important. And we're
going to the decorations and the billboards that we were
condemning before. Yeah, right, Silsky propagandas okay, Kupinsk. It is

(54:13):
a catastrophe in this town. They already have no light
nor water. Very few of the citizens left in this town,
and the mayor of the township is complaining in different
streams and media. Russians are already entering Kupinsk. What is

(54:36):
the threat if we lose Kupinsk? If we look at
this protrusion and their tentacle reaching Kupinsk semi cauldron behind
the back of us, call, do you think we'll be
facing an encirclement in this area? Yeah, this is a
very uncomfortable story. Kupensk is already been facing Russian intruders

(54:59):
and it's insane. My encirclement to the west there you
can see on a map there going further to the
west of it. And what happens is that if Russians
do cross the river and continue pressing deeper on that
side than our defense line in Barravayah will not be
feeling that well, and I would predict a rather sad

(55:22):
destiny of the whole defense group in this area. And
you have siver skid unions and the Russians will continue
exacerbating their success taking Kupensk and pressure on the railroad
junction that it is. Then Iszum is another perspective, and
Izum is an operative balcony to Krema and Slovansk, which

(55:46):
is the final goal of their winter campaign. Taking off
Kramatorusk and Slavnsk. It again doesn't mean that they'll take
it to the spring of twenty six. But this is
a very uncomfortable story. But Kupensk is already full of
Russian troops and the fighting is in township. It's not
official detachments that are holding it, but there are significant

(56:12):
troops presence in the township. Okay is Zum Slavansk road
that is being shot through and through some horrible videos
that populate telegram channels. This is essentially a road of
life for Slavansk. Well, yeah, any road forty kilometers near

(56:33):
the front is already within reach of drone. The war
is changing its character every three to four months because
of the development of technologies and equipment. Always is changing
the tactics, and we're looking at new stage that's been
lasting for the whole summer or at least half summer,

(56:54):
last couple of months, most emphatically when the new ability
that is being covered with drones to cut off significant
chunks of the front. You isolated first and then you
break through. Now it is done on the level of
the platoon and company planning groups, but eventually we'll see

(57:19):
that with the brigade level of defense. Well, that will
be detaching of disconnecting rather big chunks of front from support,
and that's one we'll see them biting significant pieces of
the territory. Remember all these stories about positional dead end, stalemate,
It is not anything bad. Why have I brought this road,

(57:42):
Alex say, is that today we heard from the front
that this road between Slovanskan disume the time highlighting on
the screen that this was discussed for a few days already,
but Ukraine side tried to establish logistics or to Slavansk
from Barvinka from the west. But today we're getting more

(58:05):
data that this road that was connected, which is more
to the south, which is also within reach by Russian troops.
All the other roads coming from the south they are
also under attack, have been for quite a while. So
we're seeing a significantly difficult story here around Slavansk, and

(58:26):
not that Nlexa is giving us prognosis about the winter
and autumn campaigns, probably more autumn campaign. I think they
may solve the story with Slavansk by the end of
this year, but things might escalate on the front and
speed up on the front, and all these stories that
Russians are taking just one village a day or one

(58:48):
house in a village a day, and it's very slow,
it might actually start to speed up significantly. I say,
how do we understand that the front is collapsing? What
will we see? Well, technically, it'll be easy to see
when we see those bunny ears near the Barpolia, and

(59:10):
we will not see that we can do anything about it.
We won't have any as of detachments to break them
and cut them. This already happened once. Then we will
see that in two or three parts of the front,
when we will not have enough troops to block these denticles.
We might be able to block them in one place,
but there'll be two or three more. How close are

(59:30):
we to that? Nobody knows. We need to know more details,
more statistics that is not a public knowledge, plus statistics
and statistics mostly of life force of actual troops on
the ground. And nobody has a good understanding of on
which stage of the status will break. But I foretell

(59:53):
that there'll be two bunny years like that, and maybe
three areas when they'll happen, and we won't be able
to cull all of them, and creating of an operative
breakthrough that the enemy cannot interrupt or intercept. That is
a story that leads to capture of dozens of kilometers

(01:00:14):
and biting off a bigger chunk of the front. And
the fact that they are doing it indicates that the
work can become very dynamic, and that the enemy once
in several days may be jumping for distances of dozens
of kilometers and it'll be very difficult to stop it.
The picture will be changing significantly, and it's not that

(01:00:37):
they'll be just changing the situation near the front. The
drones now can reach forty sixty kilometers around it, so
all the area is next to it, all logistics will
be interrupted and as a consequence you can see undercutting
the logistics routes, destruction of our supply eyelines, and US

(01:01:01):
failing to be quickly quick and stopping these efforts. This
is theoretical analysis, right, and that is one way that
can unfold. The other way can unfold if it's difficult
to break through, if our side will have enough AAVs
and then they will not have these bunny ears and

(01:01:22):
sudden breakthroughs, but they can just generally start grinding more
and more kilometers away facing our drones that are also
disrupting their communications. So one needs to understand that with
all the advantages that UAV and equipment is bringing to
the front, the main problem of Ukraine is people. However

(01:01:43):
good drones you have, this is just one of the
means of one of the tools to cause damage. The
war is started and finished by people, and people are
the ones using the results of this war until the
infantry man is standing over the trench of the enemy,
no matter how many drones you have there. So the
question is where are these people? All right? Let's wrap

(01:02:04):
up the results of the poll the year when Ukraine
turned in the wrong way. Twenty percent chosen twenty second year,
twenty two said, fourteen fourteen said was two thousand and
four and fifty three percent think that we made a
wrong turn in ninety one, and I'm quite surprised by
the result of this ball nineteen ninety one. We made

(01:02:26):
a wrong turn. What do you mean? Yeah? You Di
Romanian Coca published a map I don't know if you've
seen it of the people who regret the Soviet Times
and the X is among the X Soviet countries, Ukraine
is a complete record setter at seventy five percent regretting
the Soviet Times. What have you done to people in

(01:02:48):
order for them to vote like this? And of the
first hour

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