War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1299: The Plan to Cut Ukraine Off From NATO. Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, well, starting another stream. Looks like events are
getting more and more compressed and we do have more
and more things to discuss to address today with Alexei
who has joined us. Hello, good evening everybody friends. First
of all, big, huge, fat thanks to all of you
who subscribe who leave your opinion in the comments. This

(00:21):
is in regards to Alexis channel, to Alexander's channel and
of course priateer station that broadcast this in English. You
know what to do with the QR codes. You can
scan those and get to Alexi's school of thought or
to support Alexander's channel, and let's at least to keep
our chat awake during our live stream. Now, let's put

(00:44):
this question out. Who will forfeit more with the support
of Trump to conduct negotiations? First Nobody, second Puttin, third
Zeninski and fourth Both sides will have to forfeit about
equal amount of things while signing a peace treaty, and
everybody will be not fully satisfied, just like it was

(01:07):
predicted by some analysts before. Alex say, so, do you
think Trump really wants to conduct this dialogue between Selenskin
and Putin? Or is it just another political statement that
is somewhat similar to the two weeks, and then another
two weeks, right, and then two or three more weeks.
You know, the most serious thing that Trump said, from

(01:28):
my point of view, is that I failed with getting
two people putting at Zelenski to negotiate. When a person
of his caliber acknowledges his errors, this is serious. It
actually added situationally more respect from me to him. I
do not see any forfeture on both sides. They hate

(01:49):
each other so much, both the Lenskin Puttin that it's,
according to Trump, is not feasible to get them to negotiate.
He says he will try, but likely will succeed. And
speaking of for fature, forfeit, you can do that when
you've got some brilliant results of this war and then
you're trying to be somewhat pleasant as a result of

(02:12):
everything that you've captured, or when it is so difficult
to continue advancing that it's easier to forfeit some of
the goals than continue the advancement and the fight. So
right now, neither side, despite all the hardships of war,
is that these milestones, perhaps some time later, they'll get there.

(02:33):
I'd like to say so if we look at the
news of the last say two hours. According to Ukrainian news,
this is a flourishing, blooming country and treasure island of resources. Money.
Teachers' salaries are getting indexed for the next year. Each

(02:54):
Ukrainian will have a chance to do a medical checkup annually,
the full body checkup. And Sindanka is adding money to
salaries of doctors and nurses and hospital funding. So Burnley,
Ukraine has some paradise. I wouldn't look at all that
and thinking this is some fantastic country, while I'm listening

(03:14):
to Marchenka in the other year who's complaining that they
don't have billions and he's looking for ways to continue
funding the economy. And according to all that, the message
between the lines is that Ukrainians need to also get
ready for another year of war, at least for a year,
and during this year there'll be a golden shower Proverbo

(03:35):
treasure rather shower pouring on the heads of Ukrainians during
this time. Although yeah, you can read it the way
you like, well, because there are two different tasks here.
Alexander so Didenka, with his initiatives, is trying to fix
the rating of the Office of the president, and the
real part of social polling, the one that is not published,

(03:58):
not the one that you can see about stic country,
is already indicating that they do need to take some
measures to support Zelenski's rule in the country. And a
financial blog is solving another problem. Where do we find
three hundred ninety four hundred billion to continue survival of

(04:19):
our economy. And that's not even for the next year.
This is just to finish twenty twenty five. So that's
like in an old joke, promise doesn't mean to marry,
and all these things are promised now to the country
to support the morale, and all and done. Later they
will present these needs to the partners in Europe and

(04:39):
maybe in States, asking hey, if you cannot support these ones,
we will likely lose this war and you guys will
have to explain that somehow. So neutraally, if you just
take that out of context, it actually looks nice that
they are raising salaries for teachers, doctors. These people always

(05:00):
been on the back burner, so suddenly they're getting some support,
and medical establishments are getting systemic influx of people and
getting enough supposed to get enough Moneytory support to satisfy
that influx, and of course the way medicine works is

(05:21):
the more patients you have, the more money doctors have
in their pockets. Right, we just ballpark the current situation,
but one can ask a question, how are we going
to bail that? And nobody is thinking about this. The
main thing is that the ads on the TV look nice,
that the message looks appealing, and yeah, doctors probably getting

(05:45):
excited about that too. But you know, different blocks of
the government are solving different tasks. That's the core, the
core answer to the duality. And when Prime Minister was
asked about some populism, about some discounts to certain layers

(06:07):
into certain businesses, so now they're doing something different. Financial
block that is in charge of actually supporting all that
Carnival is pulling its hairs out and collective hairs and saying,
what the heck you're doing? And then the other block
that is propagandizing green and President is promising all these

(06:28):
golden future for your green and they are doing that
in a bit of advance. So a year a year
and a half before the election's probably the systemic actions
aiming at supporting President's popularity, so they are not too
dumb they're not doing it like a month before that.
They're starting an advance to make sure they can form

(06:50):
public opinion. All right, a le say speaking of the office.
New Times published an interesting cover top Triumvirat and here
somebody can ask a question here, okay, Zelenski the center piece.
Of course, you understand your Mark's presence in this picture.

(07:11):
And yeah, he was present with Zanski since the beginning.
He was talking about sanctions and let's yeah, continue fighting
the war with Russia. But next to them is a twin.
So out of five or six managers, this now grew
into some top trim Brad why him? And can you

(07:33):
come into a lexi? Is this the trio that is
running the country now? Well, it's difficult.

Speaker 2 (07:40):
To gauge a detailed level of influence by each of
the participants, but since he's picked for this one, he
definitely has some influence on the cabinet and the rest.

Speaker 1 (07:54):
There was some influence back in the March April of
twenty two because of the feelings and the emotions that
were devouring Zelenski's mind at that time needed some exit,
and Levin was a good conduit conductor for expressing some

(08:15):
of these messages to the public. So now, about half
a year ago, I think he raised his status to
the advisor of the president, which official advisor of the
president or staff advisor. So that tells that his position
has grown through the years, and his position is either
in the office or adjacent to the office now, I think.

(08:35):
But I'm analyzing only the open data. I'm not breathing
now to the inner kitchen, thank God, of Zelenski's cabinet
for a couple of years at least. But some people
are saying that if he's not there at least he
definitely has a direct channel of influence to Zelenski. All right,
I'd like to say, we are going to our usual format.

(08:57):
We will discuss your political situation, and we'll look at
who stated what. It's probably a separate matter that, like
Kelek says, Russians would have had their butts whooped and
Americans could have interacted with Belarus. Will put these statements

(09:17):
on the ice for now and return to the better later.
But let's take a look at the map. That's a
good excuse for us to bring the map early in
the stream. Today Sisky is firing Zidanka Yetugen from their
posts in the army they are to chief commanders, and
according to some sources, this action is related to the

(09:38):
losses on the front. So let's maybe try to analyze
what is happening on the front at the beginning of
the stream, and if something could have done, could have
been done two weeks ago to change it? And why
are they removing the commanders of the course? All right, Alexander,
nothing changes dress clearly on the front, nothing had changed

(10:02):
the way Russians were advancing on four important directions. They
still continue to kuk Konstantinovka, Pakrovski and Zabaros. There they
can be split into sub directions. For example, an uncomfortable
story about pipe in Ota in Kupensk. I wanted to

(10:25):
call Schnabievka, and I had some other names to the
tactical advancement that Russians were using, and for the third
time Ukrainian military leaders let them do it and do
not have an easy solution to counter. And I wanted
to write a fiery post about that, But then I
remember that our Ukrainian commanders had lost the eleventh township

(10:48):
in the same fashion already, so I shouldn't be attacking
them on the lack of certain skill or certain understanding.
You know, it's something third time. So yeah, they haven't
learned and they haven't previous times for other maneuvers. Why
to expect more of them here now? As for Pokrovsk

(11:11):
in that direction, there's some new ones. Remember we talked
about those rabbit years that were dissected and cut by
the Ukrainian forces. That Azolf was there, that they encircled,
Russians are finishing them. That was in the media, and
he and Pakapinca apparently got some order for this operation,

(11:33):
the second degree order, but it turns out that nothing
really is called. Russian command reacted timely and dropped additional
reserves and pressed against whatever Ukraine provided there and advancement
is continuing. Now. The Bropoli is already on the horizon,
which is not good because the capture of that township

(11:57):
you can see in the map to the left. Yeah
here that that era, this would be real bad. I
do not want to go into military details, but basically
this solves an issue for Russians about eastern fortification walls
on the water of then and it also complicates the

(12:20):
logistics for Ukrainian forces in this direction. So that's as
much as I can tell. Russian command feels rather free.
And they're not just conducting these operations down south. They're
also attacking Pakrovsk, and they're also venturing into new Pepetrovsk region,

(12:42):
and they're also threatening our troops in the parochia near Gulp.
So apparently Russian troops have enough forces and adequacy of
their commanders to turn the main attack lines to the
north into the south of Pakovsk to turn into four.

(13:04):
And one needs to feel themselves really comfortable in order
to expand the advancement in such a fashion and add
additional directions. Most likely Russian command got additional reserves that
they concentrated in this direction, and they're usually supporting the

(13:25):
most perspective direction. With these Ukrainian troops have actually pushed
back and even taken back some of the settlements, especially
in Pakosk district, but it didn't change the big picture.
And that is situational pull push thing. When one side
takes some of the other pushes back a bit. But

(13:47):
Bullpark situation is getting worse, a situation near Kupensk is
getting worse, and if they take Kuppinsk, we will have
significan tissues for our group on the right bank of
Syrian Ski Dnians River. And this is a very uncomfortable
moment that you can already see emerging on the map

(14:10):
there all right. Today Alexei Deep State made a statement
that Russians are in Yampel. Apparently some of the diversion
groups are already there in civilian clothes, and Ukrainian forces

(14:31):
have tried to kick them out but are failing to
do it so far. And despite the fears fighting in
the streets, Yampel is a significant township on the road
to Slovansky. So that story with Sibyanka and Sebansky Forestry. You,

(14:54):
for example, in our reviews here, Alexei, you were talking
about this all the time. Now it actually also reaching
out to jumpin and attacking Yumpen, and Liman is very
close from here in Daeda, Alexander, they are taking bites,
they're taking bites off the front and Russian command I
think is facing two significant temptations or one to continue

(15:19):
advancement to Plegatowski district or split the forces between Sebranka
and Liman, because the problem of Liman is the problem
of saving flanks for the group from the group that
is advancing to Danievsk and Logansk, which has significant his

(15:41):
situation here. And if they manage to close this resistance
from Ukraine in this park, they will free a lot
of forces that they can use in other places and
they can get to Krematowska and Slavansk later. And I
can remind that Girkin and his groups early at the
beginning of the conflict, they were actually going to slenavskan Kramatovsk,

(16:03):
that's where they were starting their actions and to the
north of Kuippinsk if you take north of this area
on the map. As I said, there are forming operations
that are preparing operative space to conduct the main operation,
for example, to take Slenelskan Kromatovsky. And there are some
operations that are called a different flavor of preparatory operations.

(16:28):
So Russian command on two directions right now is preparing
for bigger operations. You can see these are preparatory actions
on both near Constantinov Khan here in Leman. Why Russian
command in so hopeful because not only that they're making

(16:51):
a good face but the bad cards, but they actually
have successes on the front that's undeniable towards alexeidian Pa
Petrovski District actually worried a lot of people today and
there were people evacuating, some people recording tiktoks and other
social media and crying because they apparently were considering themselves

(17:12):
to be a rather tough back bone for logistics of
the front. They thought they would not be in danger,
but now they are facing real threats and they're living,
and they're deferring to the refugees from Pakovsk, who are
also telling them that guys leave while you can, because

(17:33):
in Pokarovsk, for example, it's getting worse and it's impossible
to evacuate civilians when the heart action of war gets
in your township. So Alex say, what do you think
is the meaning of that political push of a wide
front movement towards Nipper Well. Nipeptos District has never been

(17:55):
fought at during the eleven years of war by Russian troops,
and apparently now they are fighting right eighteen different townships.
That's a size of an operative tactical level. That's a
significant chunk of the front, about one hundred kilometers with wise,
and this is very uncomfortable in a perspective. Also, one

(18:16):
can understand that Russian troops piercing Danetsk District going to
new Pepetrov's territory, they change the character of their operative
motion because Danyesk is very city central, city centric, a

(18:36):
lot of townships, a lot of suburbia near the city,
so that will be difficult. But there are other zones
around Nipepetros District behind Danyezk. Danny's district is the heavily
townized or very suburban, very full of townships, where one

(18:57):
town goes into another. That's where it'siculty fight. Yet the
next one is rather empty. The Perpetual's district is rather empty,
with forests and lakes and rather big swaths of agriculture
and empty spaces. So one cannot discount the maneuverability that
Russian troops may gain when they get to this district.

(19:20):
This is still somewhat remote, but we can already start
talking about it because this is already on the horizon.
And it's not just us. That astronaut a couple of
weeks ago also mentioned in one of his streams, and
he's very down to earth individual. He is not the
one swing the propagandist staffa and the stuff and scaring people.
So these are bad perspectives. They're not tomorrow, they're not

(19:42):
the day after tomorrow, but they're already on the horizon.
They're significant concerns, Alexei. When we talked about the budget,
there was a serious question posted where do we take
money from? So if we look from the actual standpoint
point of truth during this situation on the front, do

(20:05):
money have any effect on the Ukrainian fighters on the front.
Of course they do, Alexander. To succeed in fighting war,
you need only three things money, money, and money. So yeah,
all three of them affect significantly. Then again the question
should be posted to the financial block of the government,
not to the propagandist one. Where are they going to

(20:27):
get the money from? This discussion continues to burn from
the beginning of the drones penetration into the Polish territory.
Daily this topic gets more attention. Poland is getting ready
for war, while NATO joined the war today, I think

(20:50):
there was an exemplary moment whether the Poles want to fight.
There was an episode in Roslov and this is an
usual vehicle Ford focus, I think it used. It had
Ukrainian plates, so the plates were torn off and it
was written sprayed all over with paint to the front,

(21:15):
so that specific representative or that specific Ukrainian was advised
in such a manner to return back to the front.
What do you think about all these analysts who are
trying to whip NATO countries into frenceys saying that NATO
will join the fight, and some of them were saying,

(21:35):
shoult the drones over the territory of Ukraine, to which
Russian side NVIDIA responds that if you will be shooting
our assets over Ukraine, the small mean war. So do
you think they are going to can they change the situation? Alexander?
Right now we're seeing a fundamental breakdown, something that they've
not used to seeing before. Before this attack by Russian

(21:58):
drones or flying into the territory, it was considered that
Russia will never attack NATO. Of course, there are some
alarmists who are always saying that Russia will attack. But
apparently Russia can and will intrude if they want to.
Whatever happened there at the border with Poland and Russian
drones crossing it, according to the international law that regulates

(22:19):
relations between countries, it can be assessed as direct military aggression.
The fact that the warheads were not military on those drones.
The fact that they did not attack Polish targets it
only indicates that Russians actually planned this operation. So why
they're doing it is, I think, in my view, to

(22:42):
separate Polish support to Ukraine and other EU support to
Ukraine because Native members will then start worrying about their
own height, so that Ukrainian air defense systems will not
get enough support and hopefully we'll leave some of the
targets open uncovered for more Russian hits. For that, they
need to prevent getting Ukraine more am more spare parts, money, etc.

(23:09):
So they found a way to do that. They figured
a way to threaten the territory of native countries from air,
knowing fantastically or probably having gotten confirmation that whenever there'll
be a fork, whether to help Ukraine or to cover
themselves from May, they will pick to protect themselves. That's
exactly what happened. Poland the same morning after the Russian

(23:32):
intrusion got forty three billion billion with a B. The
whole Ukrainian defense budget before the beginning of war was
seven billion. Poland got forty three billions just to support
air defense systems. So that you understand the difference. That's
why EU and NATO are in a very precarious position.

(23:54):
They're very sure that they will defend themselves, but Ukraine
will be supplied with whatever remains. So decisions made after
six war hours after Russian's incursion once again confirmed for
Putin that the West will be concentrating their efforts and
defending themselves and not Ukraine in such cases, despite some

(24:17):
of the screams of Ukrainian propagandists that if you give
us everything and three nukes, we will show Russians how
the wars are won. But this is not what we're
observing as a reaction from NATO countries. If that will
continue Russian operation on threatening Poland and Romania and probably
Baltic countries, it already has some success, and this success

(24:41):
can be built upon. Second side of this story is
put In trying to play with Europe and see how
tough they are. Ideally, for put On, if NATO fails
and folds to invoke the article, it may post be
questions why do they need NATO, and that structure may

(25:04):
collapse as a result. For now, NATO's countries are actually
reacting as NATO should, so they are moving troops. They're
giving money, so NATO is not folding on the fifth Article,
but they're definitely indicating that they're throwing all the efforts
to support themselves, because yes, we will support, we will stand,
and we will fight and we will be a challenger

(25:26):
to Russian's incursion into EU. But Ukraine in this case
remains on the outskirts of support and this is one
of the good signs that Russia was waiting for. This
is one of the solutions they wanted. Russian propaganda, of
course is showing that it's not us, it's an accident,
and there'll be more accidents we'll see in a few

(25:46):
days to come, but that definitely is something that they're planning.
And I can say that decisions made in the first
twenty four hours already indicate that it was a political
success of this operation was tremendous. Not military. Military was
really not much of an influence, but political result of

(26:09):
this incursion is significant. This is a high class of
political game where with one tiny needleprick putt and achieved
a significant result. Right, he launched drones without the fighting module,
without cameras, so they're not even a threat much and

(26:34):
it looks like Russia spent a change on these drones
that were very light, didn't have any armaments or systems
on them, and Poland spent about one point nine million
to shoot all the nineteen down right, So that's a
big disparity. And as one of the commanders in Europe
said that Germany has enough supplies to fight a Russian

(26:58):
drone warfare for five if that ever happens to them.
So the problem of NATO countries is that they were
preparing very well trained but small countries. The bands that
can work significant successful operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, in
certain countries in Africa, but they cannot solve the situation

(27:24):
when you have a big front advancing at you, and
Bundesweher meantime dwindled from twenty six brigades to four or six,
so they're just physically incapable of resisting big wars. And
the Russia Ukraine war is definitely a different animal. It's

(27:44):
a big continental war that Europe was not expecting. The
only way for you to win such a war is
to have a lot of infantry, drones, a lot of
shells and cheaper munitions. The West is completely was not
ready for that, and that small event over Poland showed

(28:06):
that one drone that is really maybe thirty thousand that best,
was shot down by a million worth or whatever in
a EU equivalent ten times worth the price of the missile.
And it's understandable when the missile that costs a million

(28:26):
is shooting down a jet fighter which costs thirty that's
a good mathematics. But if it's a drone which is
thirty thousand at best, then the EU will face a
need to produce these missiles at a much higher rate,
and it'll be a huge disparity monetarily. And also they
don't have enough qualified personnel, and they don't have quick

(28:49):
ways to increase production. The factories are rather dementory in
this regard. They don't have electronics for all that, because
they'll need to re establish more supply with Teline or
buy more from other vendors. And I understand the potential
threat of this puddeins operation. And yeah, while some of

(29:10):
them screaming, look we succeeded, we defeated them, Sure, situation needed,
but excuse me. These were not military drones and they
were nineteen to twenty three or some sources said nine
of them crossed the border, and you spent overwhelmingly more

(29:32):
money to shut down these rather cheap vehicles. In Ukraine,
we face two hundred to three hundred, sometimes even more
than that. If that attacks Europe, their defense systems will collapse,
they'll face a catastrophe. The attack of a bigger scale
will actually pose a lot of questions to NADO. Just

(29:55):
a drone attack, it'll bring to light the vulnerabilities of
your defense system. And this small example of it just
highlighted that this is a strategic hole. It's very serious.
Civilians may not understand that, but this is a hole
of such a caliber that governments will have to make
decisions on that. This is a fundamental strategic decision, a

(30:19):
reason for that decision to be made. Then wait a
le say, there is some logic in this, I think
to take these forty three billion and give to Ukraine.
Maybe right, especially since Ukrainians are screaming about it, and
Ukraine already has a drone, interceptors, other means, and they're fighting.

(30:40):
But they're not, Yeah, Alexander, they aren't, and they won't
during five or six hours after this incursion of this operation.
If you will, NATO concentrated their efforts on defending itself,
EU and NATO Ukraine. You just stand outside over there.
So in West twenty five in Yalta conference, Kellogg said,

(31:03):
I think the formulation was fantastic. Putin did not succeed
in taking Kievan Odessa, so he has lost. He did
not take it in four days. It's the fourth year now,
and all that bravada from Kellogg, who is a general
who says that yes, now we can woop Russian armies

(31:24):
ass if we want to. And on one hand, it's clear,
it's understandable what picture of the world is he seeing.
Kellogg is whooping Russians. Here, Poles are bringing their troops
to the border there establishing no flight zone over the West.

(31:45):
Five military exercise conducted in Belarus by Russia and Belus jointly.
And then suddenly American representatives, American officers, observers come to
these training and here they are met by General Krinian
Belarusian bel Russian side receiving side. These officers speak Russian,

(32:09):
so they talk in the same manner. They shake hands,
they exchange gratitude for inviting, invitations and acceptance, and that
breaks the paradigm because this is not the Belarus Army training.
This is a Russian Belarus Army training, yes, and usually

(32:31):
the exercises of such caliber get observers from the counter block.
And Belarus actually did warn Poland about the drones and intercepted,
according to some data, some of them. So it's a
big question what Belrus actually wants. But if you want
to go deeper into this vat whole weekend. But otherwise,

(32:54):
the arrival of American officers to observe these training exercises
is actually a normal thing. It is used by some
bloggers to heat up the rhetoric against the West, but
this is not the main thing, you know. The main
thing about The main news about this exercise is that
Indian Army detachment arrived to this training. And this is

(33:15):
a screaming news. This is why some actually said that
India has crossed the red line. Even if all American
officers observers would have come, it would not matter that
much as sixty five personnel from the elite Indian detachment

(33:37):
taking participation in these trainings. And this was probably a
result of a very tactical mistake that United States made
against India by raising terrorists. It is causing these wrinkles
in relations where India is sending its troops to Russian exercises,

(34:01):
and scandalously, India not only continues to buy Russian oil
and to communicate with China closer, but is also not
picking up Trump's phone and sending their troops to Russian exercises.
And that actually was known when became known on the
same day when we heard about the drones crossing into Poland. Today,

(34:24):
Chinese representatives said that, you know, if you'll be provoking
us more, we shut down the meteorite somewhere as a
training exercise, we can shoot down some more things. So
that Shanghai Organization Summit actually is an indicator for those
countries to show that we are a worthy opponent to
the West if you misbehave. So the result of that

(34:47):
Shanghai Organization Summit, the teeth that India and China are
showing to the West, and that Russian roan flight into
Poland is not for a random series of events. I
think there was conversation between Putting Moody and she in
regards to expressing certain support one way or another. They nodded,

(35:10):
I guess to each other and communicated a few things.
How they can express their aspirations and their support to
each other. From that point of view, the West is
in defense mode and they're making tactical mistakes, mostly because
the West has lost strategic initiative without even understanding why
they needed strategic initiative, and strategically, you need to be

(35:36):
leading your pensions for how and where and what means
will be used in the war while and competition. But
right now the West is really behind or at best
on the same level as the collective South. And I

(35:57):
think the West is not really defeated in this matter,
but it is actually at a loss what to do
with these countries. And the most uncomfortable element is that
it is being shown different under the lower level, the
under barrier level of war fighting, that the West doesn't
have any cohesive means to protect itself with. The West

(36:23):
succeeded in generally fighting bigger threats generally successfully, but now
they're being shown that new war rules. If there is
no infantry fighting on the ground, we can send something
on the front at you a really and you are
not ready to fight that. You're not ready to counter

(36:45):
that as much as well as you're not ready to
fight with infantry. Waves of opponents coming in. And by
the way, another interesting thing in key of suddenly a
cargo train with exploded. Some statements are saying that this

(37:06):
is a Russian version of the spider web where they
placed certain FPV drones in Kiev district which attacked this train.
And apparently put In canplay and learn from operations done
by Ukraine. And also the West does not have easy

(37:29):
means of shooting down these drones. How do you protect
a train with em from the drone that is targeting it?
And these operations without significant advancement or advantage in aviation
or additional missile systems hypersonic stuff, you can still get
advantage that the West would not know what to do
with the West has no tools to easily encounter that.

(37:54):
And it is ironic that Ukraine still talks about going
to NATO and joining NATO. And I said at that time,
when I heard that about NATO standards joining NATO, I
was asking what standards are you going to adapt when

(38:16):
some Sikorski representatives are saying that, you know, we actually
have to learn from Ukrainian factories, from Ukrainian fighters on
the front. So this is also an indicator that the
West is learning looking at this war and they have
issues they need to learn and understand that. And what

(38:40):
we heard is that Ukraine will not get any guarantees.
They're impossible. You and myself, we've been talking about this
for the last three two and a half years. Sikorski
came out and said, use our words basically verbatim. I
think he'll get to a Ukraine peacekeeper list of the
enemies of the state because he said exactly that. But

(39:04):
if the country is not ready to fight for another country,
the rest is not a guarantee. Whatever other political agreements, documents,
statements you jointly publish and sign, these are not guarantee.
The guarantee is readiness to go fight for Ukraine. And

(39:24):
none of you countries is ready to do that. And
according to Sikorsky, none of the countries in the EU
are there. As a reminder, forty three billion went to
Poland to support their aerial defense systems, not to Ukraine.
So it is an interesting story. There is a commentator

(39:45):
called Rosdolf stop Rosdov and he's a torch of Levovsky
District and he's representative of Sikhovsky School of Geopolitics and
he's saying that our own exit out of this trouble

(40:07):
is to start a Third World War, otherwise we're losing it.
And in this I find myself I'm amusingly agreeing with
the school that sometimes once every thousand years they guess
something right. But yeah, Ukraine otherwise doesn't really face any ways,

(40:27):
and it doesn't have any ways to succeed. And I
want to say upfront that Ukraine will fail to ever
drag the West into the Third World War because they
don't want to fight for Ukraine. The West will find
a way to negotiate with Russia. The West might counter
Russia if Russia attacks the West, but it will not

(40:47):
fight for Ukraine under no circumstances directly. So we already
have the lines. We have indianline that is present at
the Russian Belarus trainings Shanghai Zation Security Organization, not clear
where it will grow. The first vessels from China are
now going through the North Ice Pathway, which is ten

(41:13):
days shorter than going through Suez Canal, So again it's
a shorter trade route around Russia. Even although Icier and
the world is changing so fast that these geopologists from
Love are failing to grasp this, and they don't understand
that they will not get these money to raise the

(41:36):
salaries for the teachers and doctors, because the money will
go to Poland and Romania and Estonia and other countries
to support their aerial defense systems. So a lex Say
Tusk twenty minutes ago says that they shot a drone
over the government building of the Poland government and they

(42:00):
captured to operators supposedly from Russia. So once again, Alexander,
this one shows that these are capabilities. Russia is showing
its capabilities and its way to influence the decisions made
in the cabinets in Europe because people only see the
strongest statements about two is conderor missiles set in Canningrad,

(42:24):
for example, that Russia set up. But this is erroneous
to draw attention to that these are just two. Meanwhile,
there could be several dozen of drones attacking your targets.
They will not carry made in Russia or made in
belarusa somewhere. There will be no name drones, but they
will be flying into things without any munitions. For example,

(42:48):
imagine this drone hits a military vehicle in a window,
just you know, destroys the windshield of one of the vehicles,
or hits directly some Polish military standing at the tarret
top of the vehicle and the military specialist is dead
or severely injured, or you know, the driver of the

(43:09):
train got hit and the train derailed. Didn't even need
to have an EMMA. It could be just a UAV
or some guys burnt the automation element along the railroad,
so the trains cannot go in a certain direction until
it is fixed. So we've been talking and we see

(43:35):
a lot of commentators addressing saying that Moscow is suffering
because they cannot fly regularly and they have issues. But
you know, Russia shows that they can do the same
thing in EU airports, in Polish airports. That game can
be played together, and Russians are showing that they can't
play that and they probably can do it better because

(43:57):
they've been training for the last three years, with Ukraine
four years, and the West has fallen into a couple
of big mistakes. One of them was the end of
war back in the nineties, which caused the end of
atitude that the war is even possible. And after that
they started building their military forces in a different fashion

(44:21):
with a lot of delays, disarmament and disassembly of the
production lines, and then tactical issues caused by a change
of power in the United States that pushed China and
India to a certain side. And now the West is
facing sub threshold attacks that they're not ready to counter

(44:44):
with on all the different fronts, from UAV vehicles to
propaganda attacks. And you cannot send a side winder to
attack every FPV. You'll run bankrupt very quickly. And the
question that one can ask here is what is the
degree that Russian Federation is going to continue pressing the

(45:10):
East European countries and the native borders. Alex say, still
it's weird. Some drawn over the government building, Belarus operators captured.
It almost looks like Poland is being brought to this
fight by its ears. And don't forget least to click

(45:34):
the light button share your opinion. The Lansky, meanwhile, is
saying that Ukraine is still waiting for Patriot missiles. There
is a program perl that is worth of three and
a half billion, and these are the money to buy
armaments from the United States. Obviously European money paying for

(45:55):
American equipment. And he's stomping saying that America is not
selling US arms too quickly or we're not getting money
on time, and this will be broadcasted largely whenever they
finally get the missiles. Why did we remember about Drosdof,

(46:15):
who is making money on this war, describing and figuring
out how this war is fought. But I think the
NATO plant that Russia is using is on the table.
It's obvious, Sasha, it's not about bringing NATO into war.
One needs to understand. It's not about dragging NATO into
this war. It's about dissecting NATO from Ukraine so that

(46:38):
money and droves and equipment went to Poland not to Ukraine.
Side effect, the second goal of this operation is to
test the actions of NATO to counter the perspective of
that threat. The way they reacted, how the military deal
dealt with it, How long did it take for signal
to go through the chain of command to make a decision,

(47:03):
the order of action, how it was done given the deficiencies.
So Russian intel services are looking at all that. But
you can notice that all the story coincided with anti
Ukrainian campaign. That new elected president in Poland started all
the story, all these training in the West twenty twenty five.

(47:25):
They're happening on the backdrop of anti Ukrainian campaign in
some of the EU countries. For example, Polish president would
be either pushed to certain steps by countering certain but
cutting certain financial support to Ukrainian refugees, so he's basically
making it more difficult for Polish people to cross through

(47:47):
Poland to live there, and generally frowning from supporting Ukraine.
So you can look at the Special Operation as additional
stone and the swight and based saying that this is
a way to push Poland more against Ukraine. Russia, India,

(48:08):
and China are using it in their fight with the Collective,
NATO and the United States, and Poland is not the target.
Poland is just the button that is being pressed to
problematize relations of the West with Ukraine, especially going that
we're now facing autumn and winter time and the Russian

(48:29):
command is planning to take these territories sometime in the stamframe,
so they would love to have Ukraine less protected or
less supported. So these are the goals. And if my
hypothesis is correct, which I think it is the way
I estimate the thought process of the enemy, then it

(48:52):
will not be limited well, just drones over the Polish government,
because the operation of cutting the West from Ukraine, the
degree of threat needs to be so high that Patriot
systems would stay in Poland, they would not go to Ukraine.
And Patriot is usually used for hitting significant targets like
ballistics and wing missiles. Then Russia needs to conduct what

(49:16):
the cutting operation through Rodna and Volin No, no, no, no.
They just need to create a significant threat to the
countries of Baltic and Southern Europe, so the money would
be sent to support those native members instead of supporting Ukraine,
so that the Patriot systems would take some more time

(49:37):
to reach its Ukraine targets. And you either need to
hit certain targets and those bordering countries with ballistics or
continue pressing it in some fashion. I don't know which
methods will they pick, but theoretically that's where they should go.
And I'm just showing one line of reasoning. But it's

(49:57):
a big operation. And I think that this operation implies
systemic growth of pressure to create significant panic with the
Western countries like Poland, so that they would not care
about Ukraine, that they would scream about getting all money

(50:20):
themselves that they need to turn into a steel hedgehog
or steal porcupine. Rusula used that term in regards to Ukraine,
but Poland is or Russia wants Poland to be such
a porcupine rather so they would be getting funding and
support than Ukraine. I don't know how they won't do

(50:41):
that in details, but this is the beginning. I think
it could be one time provocation, but I have a
feeling that there will be more complex like that. Look,
the West is making systemic mistakes. That mistake by President
of Poland with his anti Ukrainian company this was used
by Russian Federation immediately to separate Poland from Ukraine. Now

(51:10):
how smart are Ukrainians in media? And Ukraine were now
facing anti Polish hysteria. And that's given that Poland sacrificed
everything for Ukraine at the beginning of this war. They
gave a tank division, they gave us money, they gave
us judds, they took millions of Ukrainian refugees that were
supporting them with kindergartens other services. However, relations are with Poland.

(51:37):
We should never forget these things. Even in two hundred
years that when the bombs were falling in our heads.
Poland came to help us, They came to the rescue
and being ingracious is one of the worst character features
or traits that Ukraine can exploit now. And what does
our leadership do and what opinion leaders do they perform

(52:00):
an anti Polish campaign And here we have reasons for
Russian program to flow very smoothly. So the West is
really not pulling through the type and the character of

(52:22):
contention of fight Russian Federation and India and China being
opponents to the global West. The West is kind of
losing from this perspective, or not pulling hard enough to
win from the strategic point of view that Russia and

(52:43):
China and India are pushing them. They are not pulling through.
Why did they start though? Jeffrey Sux comes out Alexei
and says he didn't qualify when but mcron approached him
apparently and said that it's not US, it's NATO. NATO
is not pulling through. So Sex is acknowledging or commenting

(53:03):
that NATO indeed acknowledged their aggressive politics and these things
are happening because of them. What we see now in Europe. Yeah,
to a degree, you can say that this is happening
because of NATO. You can say that, but in my estimation,
when they started it, they were in a sort of
rich white gentleman posture, who has an elephant, a lot

(53:28):
of money and vehicles, and there are some local tribes
somewhere downstairs who are digging the diamonds for them, And
this fellow was sitting on the elephant and indicating, you
guys will fight them, and you guys will fight there,
and we'll see what happens. And all of a sudden
they did not understand how they got surrounded. And now

(53:49):
they're in a strategic encirclement, so to say, and China
and India are making strategic decisions that the West is
not making timely. And then you see at least a
million wide demonstration against the leftists in London, oh, organized

(54:10):
by Aristovitch. Right, yeah, well not myself, but somebody organized it.
When they're saying that it was just one hundred and
ten thousand, I'm laughing. I once was at one hundred
and fifty thousand demonstration in London, But when I was young,
what was there yesterday was much much more. Let's say,

(54:32):
several hundred thousand people at least. So this is a
very interesting story. And the West, in parallel fighting the
global fight with the South, it also is fighting within
itself because when we're saying West, there are two different wests. Right,
conservative West is one thing, left globalist West is another one.

(54:55):
In London, there are conservative demonstrations in Europe, there are
a conservative protest in States. There is definitely a conservative
vector with the probability of some civil unrest against the globalists.
So what will the collective West do is unknown about
all of them together definitely not liking the globalists. So

(55:18):
the problems most likely exist for the globalist leaderships of
the Western countries. But since they do run a lot
of countries, the whole country that they manage or groups
of countries, they suffer because of these decisions, and they
have the drones, and they have the immigration and other
issues and countries like Poland. Being that they are on

(55:42):
the crossroads between the West and the East, they understand
that they likely will find themselves suffering one way or another.
And that's just the beginning end of the first hoursassass

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