War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1313: Why is Ukraine getting Arms and Money Again. Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Greetings to dear friends, guests, subscribers to my channel, to
Alexis channel. We are streaming it live at the end
of September. October is almost here and we're discussing another
day of war.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
I've got a ton.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
Of different statements from different notable newsmakers. So alexis with us.
Good evening, Good evening, right friends, Before starting, let's start
talk a little bit about the format of this channel.
Both of our channels are sanctioned in Ukraine's Mine and Alexis,

(00:42):
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(01:03):
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(01:26):
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If you're interested come join take classes. Of course, everybody
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forget to click like subscribe and if you can post
something under the stream so we can get more eyeballs

(01:49):
on it. So today's question is why drafting Commission is
packing up already served men? Are the ones who who
were deemed unfit for service, because we do have several
cases when apparently the Drafting Commission grabs these people from

(02:11):
the street and suddenly they become proper to serve in
the army again and get sent to the trenches, to
the front line. So options to answer a this is
done to save money, be the preventing the rebellion of
the veterans, because who else can be upset probably those

(02:34):
who come back from the front. Third, is huge deficit
of skilled fighters on the front. And one last, they're
just filling the plan. They do not you do not
need to look for any conspiracy theories. They just find
a warm male body, packaged it and sent over Alexey,

(02:55):
what would you answer to this question? I think get
his optional before they're just grabbing everybody they can find,
and to verify whether he fought, whether he has special
documents and all that there's no time for that. Right,
they need to grab this body, make it unconscious or

(03:15):
not resisting, shove and the bus and then after that,
good luck trying to get out of the system. Some
people know how much does it cost in Ukraine to
bribe yourself out of this system? But it's a lot
of money. Yeah, I'm of an opinion some people probably
should wear certain stars or insignia, or I don't know,

(03:37):
put a medical document. Whether he s if on you
for it that you're unfit for duty. Well, we'll try
to uncover more today whether there is any evil thinking
behind their actions today or is it just the usual
over exaggerated response of the people at the places. And
police is joining these incidents and sometimes they fight on

(04:02):
the side of drafting commissions, sometimes against Its just weird.
And let's start with global questions. Alex say, I would
like you to help us understand the silence of Kremlin.
We heard kalog, we heard advance tomahawks for Ukraine. Ukraine

(04:24):
will be winning. On the Warsaw Security Forums, Lensky and
Tusk made the fiery speeches. It appears that something is
rather disconnected from reality on Earth. Why is it happening
like this. Well listen. Such an order of statements can
be inspired by two things. One thing, Trump made a

(04:49):
decision to teach Russia a lesson if Russia doesn't want
to learn. In reality, I think he made a lesson,
made a decision to teach a lesson to China. Because
Eranski would not be including China into his speech, he
was allowed to mention China. That means that Trump is
negotiating with China. Means that negotiations with Russia already happened.

(05:14):
Trump exposed that Putin did disappoint him with his reaction,
so he treads Russia as a proxy power of China,
And of course there is negotiations happening on one hand.
On the other hand, there is of course blackmail and pressure,
and it needs to as I see, include elements of
revenge to make put In pay for his stubbornness, and

(05:39):
very likely the transfer of arms to Ukraine is part
of that. And many of them are new what we
heard and already open sources are green pins from Sweden.
They talked about that back in twenty two, but finally
they're about to come. Simingo is already saying that you
will not hide and we can get to all the

(06:04):
targets that we want to get. And then they also
told Kremlin that you guys will also have to go
to the bunker, implying that Ukraine might launch Tomahawks. Right,
Whether yes or not, we won't know until Ukraine uses
the first Tomahawk missile, but we can understand that decision
to transfer a significant amount of arms has been taken,

(06:26):
and that's why they're all in higher spirits saying that
Ukraine is winning, if not today then tomorrow, and we
have a lot of missiles and our stashes are deep.
So that's what inspiring this factor, these statements and such enthusiasms,
both on the Ukrainian side and the Poland side, that

(06:48):
can only occur when both sides see that there's a
significant amount of arms getting ready to transfer or is
already en route. I say there is one factor that
might impede this theory. The question is what Trump has
to avenge or to pay revenge to put Them for

(07:13):
for a simple thing that he refused to not accept,
to accept what Trump offered him. So you imply that
Putin did not accept Trump's offer? Yes, evil text. The
drivers that I talked to in New York. Sometimes they're
saying that Trump offered put on a significant scheme with
future bonuses, certain acquisitions and all that would pay Russia

(07:37):
put In well in the long term. But in return,
Putin said that, you know, Donald, I do appreciate your effort,
but you will be gone in two years, and after
that there could be another Obama or some Hillory or
some other figure in your White House. So let's we
let us do another way. We will first achieve our

(07:57):
goals militarily, and then after that we can do negotiations.
And after that I can talk to you or your
next president, etc. Whoever is in power and states. And
after that there is also some pressure in Europe with
UAVs and the like. We can talk about UAVs more

(08:19):
separate element Alexei. We can talk about them now, that's fine.
Right now, Europe is forming their budgets military budgets for
next year as well, and Russia wants it to save
more money for itself than transferred to Ukraine. So these

(08:40):
are the actions that Russia is exercising on the borders
with European countries to impress them. However, they can that
they also need some antidron warfare that they need more
money for their own defense. So that's what we see. Yeah,
sometimes it's weird, Alexai. There is a supposedly INTELGENS drone

(09:00):
that is lit like a Christmas tree. Well, that's exactly
what they do, Alexander. They're sending a special drone that
needs to be bright and noticed, and that's their task
is to be noticed. It probably could be singing Christmas
carols as well. They're not about military operations, they're about
forming public opinion, ale say. In Italian press they're writing

(09:27):
that it's a Ukrainian plan and sam Zennsky special operation. No,
I can say that all the American taxi drivers in
the capital are well aware you.

Speaker 2 (09:43):
Know my reference, right, not the real drivers.

Speaker 1 (09:47):
They're well aware that these are Russian military drones that
are launching from Russian vessels and Russian territories. So okay,
another thing that's central interesting. You're saying that Putin is
so blunt to Trump that I don't care how long
you stay in the office. You only have two or

(10:08):
three years left and we can fight through this time.
Can it be some jesuit but very precise plan, how
do you mean, Alexander, Well, one can consider it if
it is true through Lukashanka mirror. Unclear why Putin and

(10:29):
Lukashenka we're meeting for five hours. Then Alexander Grigorovitch Lukashanka
comes out and makes a statement about a meeting, the
factually suggesting Zaryanski to meet. And supposedly there is some
scenario on the table, some offer on the table, and

(10:49):
if you don't agree, there'll be something like Ukraine faced
at the beginning of a military operation. And nobody knows
what The last point implies, whether they will invade from
Belarus again into Ukraine territory or not, which is quite

(11:09):
an option because Chernigov District is being demolished. Now they're
using rather heavy bombing that cannot be explained just by
destroying some production targets there. They are minor production facilities,
and they're definitely over using the effort to grind it
down in Ukraine. So it seems that Trump and Putain

(11:31):
could have negotiated that you, Vladimir, have some time. I
will pretend that I am still vouching for Ukraine. I
will not supply them much. I will offer you Europe
to purchase some they probably won't and Putin probably knows

(11:54):
that only if he manages to get closer to Kiev
he will have a chance to suppress Lensky or get
him to the table of negotiations. Well, even if imagine
Alexander that he could have told Putin that okay, sure,

(12:14):
you have two months or two spring to do whatever
you want militarily, could be a trap then, because at
the same time he's transferring a lot of arms to Ukraine,
So that might be a setup if you look at
it this way. But regarding Lukashanka, he was advisor during

(12:36):
Encourage meeting, He was one of the consultants regarding Putin.
So I suspect since Trump is negotiating with China, China
might be asking Putin to imitate peace process, so they
would have some cards to play with Trump saying, hey, listen,
we can influence Russia. He's listening to your offers, and

(12:59):
there is a way to maybe resolve it peacefully. Is
Lensky is making some statements, go off is coming out
for me? It all looks like a Potomkin village, like
an imitation Trump. The main tone is that Trump is
meeting with China, he already could not find a common
language with Putin. So he's going to the owner of Puttin.

(13:19):
In his eyes, China and China and Stelen Putin, do
not shoot on our strawberries. We're talking about our trade
deals with America. So please pace yourself. I don't think
there'll be a special attack on Kiev from Russia because
to do that they would need one hundred and fifty
thousand troops. Roughly, this is already a quarter of all

(13:40):
troops fighting in Ukraine. I don't see them somewhere finding
one hundred and fifty thousand. Well, they can find the
usual the eighteen year olds that are drafted every year. Well, no,
you cannot send them to the war. No, not in
the first three months at least. They need to serve
first time for a year at least and then maybe
signed contract. What if they do it later a year

(14:05):
later after they served. Yeah, true, they could do that.
They could, and they could force them to sign a contract,
or they could try to scrape the ones already served
and paid their duties, so to say to the motherland. Okay,
my next question, Alex, say, do you know the formula
of that brave water that Zananski has drunk while he's

(14:29):
doing His behavior can be explained because Trump told him, hey,
we'll give you that much money, that many tomahawks and
some other arms, and that's why he behaves like he does.
Well In Ukraine, apparently we do not have enough money,
so why well, there will be money. That's why Europe
and the United States are both talking about giving Ukraine
more funds. How do you think arms and weapons at

(14:52):
this stage of war can they bring to a turning point? No,
will not break back of this war, but ideally they
would cause Russian to lose. Russian side to lose so much,
after which it would be a good point to start
talking about negotiating the way out. So it'll be basically

(15:16):
too painful for Russia. But it dependent upon several things. First,
our allies or whoever they are, need to give these arms. Second,
arms need to be transferred. Third, they need to be
used by trend personnel and used effectively.

Speaker 2 (15:33):
But you know.

Speaker 1 (15:37):
This is a complex chain of events. One thing is
to transfer money. I'm sure they can transfer money, but
giving arms that need to be effectively used in Ukraine,
that is a bit more skeptical about. But some effects
they will definitely have in Russia. They probably will continue
destroying the oil refineries and the command outposts. To Americans

(16:01):
who are coming out and saying that they are ready
to replace Russian oil and gas in Europe, that I
think is rather ford linked to whatever they're doing now
with Ukraine. On the other hand, Chinese and Koreans may
also give versions something, So this is a story that
can effect on can have effect on both sides. Why

(16:22):
Zernski is so brave because he solved the problems of
budget for the next year that was a key problem
of his and he is solving a military equipment but
unsolvable problem for Ukraine remains mobilization of personnel because tomahawks
and equipment, this is number two or three factor. The
first factor is people, and people are melting away slowly,

(16:46):
but they are Ukraine recruits slightly over twenty thousand draftees
per month. Half of them disappear, leave their locations, etc. Runaway,
and the rate of attrition is slightly over whatever remains.

(17:07):
And Russians they actually managed to grow their numbers by
two to three thousand people a month despite their attrition.
So this is the main problem. That these two vectors
are on different slopes, and tomahawks and discandres. That's secondary matters.

(17:27):
Alex say, five minutes ago we heard the conversation of
Zelenski was posted in the media that he talks about
the Barpolia. He's saying that by the beginning of today,
our troops and the Brapolio managed to liberate over one
hundred and seventy four square kilometers from Russian diversion groups

(17:52):
and troops. It's a very gray story about what's happening
on this part of the front. Since we do touch
on military matters, I would like you to comment on
this direction and what's happening nearby. Nearby Russians are advancing.

(18:13):
So how come we clean up certain square feet and
they are taking some other square feet. Yeah, that's an
old story when you take from Peter to feed Paul.
We took some troops from one side to clean up
the existing problem, but then we do not have enough

(18:35):
troops to hold and support front from where we took those.
At one thousand kilometer length front, at the level of
the front line being at twenty or thirty percent staffed,
there always will be some breakthroughs.

Speaker 2 (18:53):
The Propolia was the first one of.

Speaker 1 (18:54):
Them, and we found some counter offensive troops to hold
their advancement. But Russians are still exerting the pressure. So
I can say that there is no significant pressure, that
there's no situation where Russia continues that. But we also exaggerate,

(19:19):
we do not give on the truth. There is no
counter offensive there. The way it is the operation has
a different character. But a lot of statements are made
in the political spectrum. This is what Ukraine does. It

(19:40):
shows that, look, if we have enough troops, if we
have enough equipment, we can counterattack and we can win.
So this statement is sent more to the Western allies,
western partners. But to speak about this part of the front,
it's a complex situation with several groups fighting on two

(20:02):
to three different intersecting districts, and it's messy. Yeah, Russians
still continue, they have the priority there, they're still pushing. Yes,
in two to three areas, Ukrainian forces prevailed, but they
were counterattacked by Russians and they had to move again.

(20:22):
But in any case, such a counter offensive as they're
describing in Hardakov as it is as it was in
Harkov in twenty twenty two, we did not see that.
Do we have cauldrons there? Imply where we encircled some
Russians look like say some people are some reporters saying

(20:43):
that there are six cauldrons where our troops have surrounded Russians.
Sotski is talking about some sort of cauldrons here at
the Brapolia on the deep state maps, you can kind
of see them sort of.

Speaker 2 (20:57):
Culture VR.

Speaker 1 (20:58):
You can see that group is disconnected from the main forces.
So who is surrounded. Well, look, the cauldron is also
whether it's a factual one or emotional one. Right, we
can come to the situation. What do you define the cauldron.

(21:19):
It's a complex terrain. Today a certain detachment can be
surrounded by from three sides, tomorrow only from two sides,
and it'll be not a full encirclement but flank protrusion.
So not to drown in all the details of military vocabulary,
I would say on the level of facts, this is

(21:41):
a complex system of different fights, attacks and counterattacks, and
Russia generally has advantage in these fights. And the main
demoralizing factor on the Ukrainian side is that leadership is
like this is very demoralizing one because those soldiers who

(22:06):
know that their leadership is telling truth, they're standing to
the last soldier. The moment they're starting to be lied about,
the morale crumbles and they leave. There's no reason for
them to do something that is not acknowledged.

Speaker 2 (22:24):
Alex say.

Speaker 1 (22:25):
I also want to touch upon a couple more segments
of the front, Sibriyanski, forestry and movement towards Liman. So
the fights are already near Yampl and today Ministry of
Defense of Russian Federation already announced that Zarashne there was captured.
The Ukrainian side is not confirming that it used to

(22:47):
be called Kiosk. So the front is slowly moving towards Liman,
where they were recently fixing roads and spending budgetary money
for beautyfulcation. And also a little bit to the south.
We can see Civisk somewhat quiet on that side of

(23:08):
the front, but situation is not getting easier. So what
can we expect on the side of the front. And
one of the clips where the Ukrainian soldier is saying
that you will see that the front will collapse, but

(23:29):
not where Deep State or some other Russian sources showing
it'll collapse in some unexpected place. There'll be a big crumble,
a huge jump, and a breakthrough from Russia. Can Yumple
be that area well, potentially, Alexander, we have four areas

(23:49):
like this. First one is Zaparagia. If we start from
the south, do you have Gulepola roughly that area exactly.
Second one is to the north and to the depth,
that's the Propolio to Zaparagi district, and then sebrans Cadisnichies
to well pe Petrovsk. That's the area that I mentioned. Yeah,

(24:14):
they could be there potentially. Because we do not have
enough quality troops to hold the front. Leman is affected
by so called Silski style of management. He put territorial
defense and very weak brigades and they aren't failing to hold.

(24:35):
We do not have enough quality troops. This is the
meaning why Russia is exerting pressure all across the front.
That is, in the military theory is contradicting a lot
of theoretical outputs, but in this specific strategy they actually
have success. How long do you think Kuppinsk is left

(24:57):
to stay? Well, nobody can tell, but we can say
that probably two thirds of that township is already problematic.
If we are being delicate to the defense forces of Ukraine,
right if they are drawing the gray zone towards Hibilline. Yeah, listen,

(25:18):
gray zone is defined by the length and the quantities
of UAVs used in this area. Given that right now
they can fly to twenty twenty five kilometers, we can
say that if Russians are on the front with their

(25:39):
UVS specialttament is likely to become they can definitely draw
those twenty five kilometers around the area where this detachment
is located. They already can isolate this district and they
can destroy the trucks up to twenty five kilometers away
from the front lines.

Speaker 2 (25:56):
This is a big problem. This is already a gray zone. None.

Speaker 1 (26:01):
Okay, well, we're still trotting around the map. Since you
did mention situation near Zaparagia Electric Nuclear Power station. It
is turned off at the moment. Ukraine is saying you

(26:23):
hold the station and you guys should fix it before
anything bigger breaks there. Russia is touting that and saying
that no, you're destroying our attempts, our trucks trying to
fix it, so you're the side to blame. Today we
saw the information that situation at the nuclear station is

(26:44):
dire and on the weekend people are already writing about
Fukushima too. How big of a game changer do you
think it can be? I mean the situation around the
possible breakage of this specific industrial element, and maybe it'll

(27:04):
get people sober. Well, Look, Alexander, there is another opinion
rather qualified Ukraine and specialists are saying that this is
just hype. Do not listen to that. On diesel engines,
this power station can work as long as needed. Plus
reactor supposedly is not superactive, so it's much easier to
hold it and contain it. So there's no situation that

(27:27):
can lead to Fukushima. But we're not technical specialists. We
can give the media report on the situation. Both sides
are definitely interested to create certain media pressure around this event.
And for Russia the station is feeding power to the
whole South and occupied Crimea. For Ukraine it also can

(27:51):
provide a lot of energy to Neopepetrovsk, can give a
ric regions and this factor definitely and affect the brains
of poor international society that had survived for Koshima in Chernobyl.
So it's an easy card to use for blackmail. Both
sides are trying to use it. Who is using drones

(28:12):
on whom we don't know. We don't see these details,
but we can say that both sides can have benefits
by using that for Kushima's care. I have not seen
any specific predictions that would imply the nuclear catastrophe at

(28:33):
the station. Why the head of International Atomic Energy Agency
talking about that, because you know, he prevents a possible
catastrophe that adds to his rank, So he's got.

Speaker 2 (28:47):
Some interest in this.

Speaker 1 (28:49):
But if you rely on the international press, not on
the Ukrainian or Russian press, the word for Koshima is
not mentioned anywhere. This only exists in a Russian speaking space,
where sides are usually trying to scare each other. All right,
we will get back to Ukraine and its perspectives and
we'll review in our political situation with it. But I

(29:14):
want to build a bridge here and find certain parallel
with the day's events in the White House. When Trump
was hosting Natanyahu, this was somewhat sensational. Such a huge
fellow as Nathania, who is apologizing in front of Qatar,

(29:36):
and he turned to the Prime Minister of Qatar himself
with apologists to updel Ardan, and he sent his apologies
about the Security Service in Qatar who died as a
result of an attack and promised Israel will help his

(29:58):
family apologies war so things happen, But then Trump published
a plan about finishing the conflict in Gaza, not twenty
one points, just twenty. Utkov I think was borken on
twenty one, but twenty were published. Conclusion of all military hostilities,

(30:22):
Israel withdraws from Gaza, all hostages released. Seventy two hours
are given to both sides after Israel acknowledges that they
accept the agreement. After all the hostages are relieved released
back to Israel, Israel has to relieve tw one hundred

(30:42):
and fifty prisoners and some more, after which all the
Hamas members. Remaining Hamas members have to forfeit their arms
and will be amnested and they will be offered to
leave the territory. Gaza is to be managed by technocratic

(31:03):
a political Palestinian committee that will consist of Palestinians and
international experts. US plan does not imply forced relocation of
Gaza citizens. Hamas and other terrorist groups have to agree
to not participate in anything relating to leadership or management

(31:25):
of the territory, and regional partners need to provide guarantees
that Hamas will follow the duties taken upon themselves as
a result of disagreement. So it looks rather straightforward. Seems
that those countries that acknowledge the Palestine state, there were

(31:47):
quite a few near the General Assembly, right, they were
sending somewhat similar package into their recognition. I think I
think it'll work well, Alexander. I'm very skeptical about it.
On paper, it looks fantastic, but in reality there are

(32:10):
vines and terrains and other things. So thing number one,
HAMAS needs to return all the hostages and they don't. Yes,
there are some efforts. Yes, both sides are trying to
release hostages. Yes, both sides need to try to find
peace solution. Because of course it's not beneficial for Israel
to continue this warfare. It strains their relations with Trump

(32:33):
and the White House. And Trump is one of the
supporters of Israel in the United States. They don't want
to put him in such a position. So Nittagne, who
can make the right motions for that agreement and apologize
to the country that they hit without warning. Now Israel

(32:58):
is also trying to de escalate a situation with Turkey
regarding Syria. What will it lead to.

Speaker 2 (33:04):
I'm very skeptical.

Speaker 1 (33:06):
Maybe they'll be temporary peace treaty, but wherever they will
leave Hamas, they will be Hamas flourishing again. When they
talk about this new technocratic government that can rule the territory,
they are closing their eyes to what really is happening

(33:27):
in Palestine and the Gaza sector. Because yes, Sir I
thought was one of those converted terrorists, right, and then
Hamas took over and won everything, and if not precluded
from that, they would have won on the Western Bank
as well. So how will this government govern with Hamas

(33:52):
present in the territory when they may be okay, renamed
themselves or just disband somewhat, but still all the people
are there, the forces are present. So right now the
countra feate arms dealing and flowing into Gaza sector from Egypt,

(34:13):
and Hamas is not expecting expected to surrender. So Gaza
was actually expecting. They had a longer strategy that United
States will intervene and will stop this war eventually, and

(34:34):
there is a strategy of certain milestones when the war
can be stopped. I don't see that plan as a
strategic out of this situation. Yes, probably stop this war.
Maybe attempt to create another Palestine government. Okay, maybe, but

(34:54):
I do not believe in peace and gaza this conflict.
Probably for now, it belongs to the unsolvable conflicts. Same
as a Ukraine. Yeah, same as the Ukraine. All right,
So solution of that is only through capitulation and complete

(35:16):
destruction of one side, right, or complete wear out of
both sides that they cannot fight anymore. Well, it seems
to me that Trump in such a situation now that
he cannot give both sides an option to leave that plan,
he needs these twenty points to work.

Speaker 2 (35:34):
Well.

Speaker 1 (35:35):
Maybe, but we see that his opportunities to enforce things
are somewhat limited. We saw them in Russian Ukrainian conflict
while he didn't have any right, well, there were no
no attempts to enforce Ukraine to do something. While he
spoke about different things and he argued with Zelenski in

(35:58):
the White Office, the Oval Office, no White House. But
it's not working. Even if you're a president of the
United States, you're not an almighty character. It's difficult to
stop the whole country or the president of the country
who has the support of special services and a big
chunk of his population. So you think the Ukrainians support

(36:21):
this ward too, well, there's enough of Ukrainians who support it.
If most of the Ukrainians did not, the war would
have stopped. But the significant part still wants to fight,
and Zelenski continues to get supportive pulling in the Ukraine media.
Another question how realistic is but he definitely is seeing

(36:44):
a lot of support. So it looks like Russia needs
to conquer Ukraine or Ukraine conquer Russia exactly, or wear
each other out to the position where you can stand anymore.
Minister of Defense of uk hilly And is turning today

(37:05):
regarding the events there, there's interesting story about the Laborist
Party meeting in Liverpool. There are a lot of banners
saying Liverpool is not happy for you. There's a huge
protest motion there remove Starmer. There's a big protest against

(37:26):
liberals in Britain.

Speaker 2 (37:27):
Right.

Speaker 1 (37:29):
So our message from Liverpool today that came from Killy
is that President Putin you will not win. Start negotiating.
That's your only way to peace. Will stand with Ukraine
as long as it is required. That's the Healy statement.
I think I heard this statement already as much as

(37:50):
long as needed, right, yeah, exactly exad We heard that before,
and they've tried to evade answering the question where is
the end? How long exactly are going to state? But
for now we have to admit that Europe and the
United States indeed both agreed to give more money and

(38:11):
give more cargo military cargo to Ukraine, and we can
already see transport lines again beefing up, and definitely more
supplies are coming. A big victory for the West that
we can notice is the defeat of Russian pro Russian
forces in Moldova. How powerful this argument is, that's another conversation.

(38:34):
But definitely in Russia they reacted as their defeat and
in the West they reacted as their victory, given that
Russia has very good opportunities to affect Moldova but they
fail to. So the West shows that they can be
in better shape and that they will be supporting Ukraine,
and Zelensky is talking about some counter offensive. So now

(38:56):
itys the Ephoria stage. We got money, we've got our
What will happen out of it? We will knowing about
excuse me, two to three months, yes, closer to winter.
But for now they're just euphoric about it. The plan
of the West is very simple. Nobody is expecting Ukraine
to win Russia and to push them back to the
borders of ninety one and to destroy them so severely

(39:23):
that Russia will just collapse. No, the idea is to
damage Russian forces so much that mathematically they would understand
that attrition is too high. We need to look for
diplomatic solution, and that's where the West is trying to
lead Russia to and they're trying to support Zenansky in

(39:43):
his effort to fight Russia to do that, and Zenanski
is also playing to that. He's saying, yeah, if we
stop the war, we can even do negotiations and we
can do elections in Ukraine. How successful this scenario will be,
we don't know.

Speaker 2 (39:57):
We'll see.

Speaker 1 (39:59):
But the idea is mathematical attrition of Russian forces. Nobody
is even aspiring to break Putin's will, so they would
be crying and saying we're sorry, we were wrong, we
will never do it again. This was a horrible mistake.
They're just hoping. And again that's just a blunt example.
If Russia brings one hundred tanks to the front a month,

(40:21):
if we shoot ninety five of them down. They're remaining
five are not going anywhere. If they bring one hundred
soldiers and we should ninety five of them. Remaining five
are not going to change anything.

Speaker 2 (40:32):
For now.

Speaker 1 (40:33):
Russian advancement is speeding up, and new means that were
promised like tomahawks may change situation. We do not see
the effects of it yet, but we see the growing
optimism of Ukrainian leadership with some words that will reach you,
even in vlight of Ostak and some of Fourig statements

(40:54):
from our closest neighbors like Poland. So Ale say, is
it some schizophrenia that some people are saying that Ukrainian
foreign affairs is prone to Sibiga specifically, can you explain

(41:15):
why he comes out and says that, yes, we will
be hitting you ever where. You will not be safe anywhere,
mister Putin, And then right after that he says that
we plan to finish this war by the end of
twenty twenty five. Are these mutually exclusive things? No, no, no, Alexandra.
They do hope that long range strikes will be serving

(41:40):
as the most convincing arguments for Putin's Russia to stop
their war. This is their scenario that they are calculating,
and I would remind that this scenario exists since twenty
twenty two, since the default of Stumbul negotiations. That scenario
was on the table all the time. The problem was

(42:01):
that Ukraine never got enough money or arms to fulfill it.
So now the West is finally coming to an idea.
Let's try to give Ukraine as much as we can
and let's see what happens. End of the first hour

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