War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1355. Mindich Scandal. The Beginning of an End for Zelensky? Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:11):
Hello, dear friends, guests, subscribers to my channel, to Alexis Channels.
This is our joint stream and we're recording it on
the eleventh of twenty twenty five and eleventh of November.
Everything is as always hot and steamy from fresh news
and events happening, alex say, it appears that everything is

(00:35):
heating up in Ukraine. For the second day, Bancover Street,
where President, residents and leadership is located, continues to concoct
different ways, different methods to implement and we will definitely
talk about these new developments and the scandal that is

(00:56):
brooding around Zelenski. I was asked by many people, how
can they why are they doing that? Apparently, yeah, they can,
and we'll try to dive into why. A lot of people, though,
are expecting that Zrenski is lucky and he might survive
this scandal. A quick housekeeping note, there are two barcodes

(01:19):
at the bottom of the screen. The one on the
left allows you to leave a question for our stream
in advance on our YouTube channel, on my YouTube channel,
and at the very end of our stream at the
second hour, we talk about some of these questions that
you guys post, and of course today's Paul It has

(01:44):
the following questions, what do you think President's office will
use to counter the scandal? A attack on Russia or
new Kursk event, something bright and shiny. Second op, revival
of Stumbul negotiations METAF was already there. Perhaps they will

(02:05):
revive this vector. Third option, Bankov will start replacing ministers
with loud scandals. And the fourth option nothing, nothing can
help them survive this as a countdown. So alex say,
everybody was waiting for your appearance on our stream, and

(02:28):
which option would you choose? Alexander? Remember I mentioned a
while ago that Zedanski will likely be done with by November,
and people were laughing, saying, well, it's November and he's
still around. Well, it is November and this is the
beginning of his end. Of course, he may struggle till

(02:48):
the end of May next year, probably another six months,
but we'll see. Now let's expand the framework to understand
the situation better. Trump reason mentioned that both sides do
not agree to compromise. That's on one hand, on the

(03:09):
other hand, he wants to finish this war. That means
that both sides need to be persuaded to compromise. And
Russia got some persuasion with additional sanctions and scares that
Ukraine will get tomahawks, which we have not yet. And
the second side is Ukraine that you can only shift

(03:31):
its position by persuading Zelenski personally, and since he is
rather well known in world politic arena that he is
a scandalous person and even in the White House he
can throw a tantrum. So they apparently decided to use
means that have been in their disposal for a while,

(03:52):
but they were not used. They've been withheld. And when
it becomes known that there are fifteen thousand notes in
this case against corruption against Kerensky's government, it appears that
they've done the research as if it was just completed
yesterday and they started to review it now. No, most

(04:16):
of this case was actually built even under Democrats before Trump,
and it's just being realized now. And the peculiarity of
how they implement this punishment is that it's being done
via Ukrainian organs, not via American and that gives America

(04:37):
additional leeway to say list and it's Ukraine internally figuring
out how corrupt they are and also whitewash some of
their involvement about this case, basically denying knowledge of how
did a ton of cash money appear in Zelensky's office.
So the backdrop of the scandal, energy systems collapse, a

(05:01):
lot of people are spending up to twelve hours without
electricity daily, and apparently the government was stealing money over
the scandal, and part of this money was transferred to
Russia via a spy pyramid with Derkatch on top and
involvement up to the Minister of Energy and Vice Prime

(05:22):
Minister General shov xi XVP. But there are more scandals.
If one dives deeper in the defense manufacturing, you'll find
a lot more scandals at a much higher scale. And
as you understand that energy systems that's making money on
heat and convenience of citizens, and military manufacturing that's making

(05:48):
money on the blood of soldiers. I don't want to
be a profit here, but I need to take this
position for half a second and say, remember I told you,
and not because I told you, not because I'm so smart,
but because that was visible in a certain way. If
you remember what FBI in the United States was mentioning

(06:14):
how they tried to mess with Trump during his elections.
Big politics tried to bring these events, these research materials
to the top some forces and other forces were blocking it.
Zelenski tried to wiggle his way out of it to
not be called a world class corruptioner. But finally it

(06:37):
does bubble up and here's the materials, here's the investigation.
So it all comes up orderly in a proper fession.
And then there is one more factor that this countdown,
the countdown for Ukraine to join EU. That countdown is dismantled.

(06:57):
Now Ukraine is not even going for that. They likely
will not see any option in the near future. First
of all, Ukrainians are not well versed in digging through
parliamentary documents of Europe, and in Europe you can dig
the recent publications where European Parliament has the most demolishing

(07:19):
report that talks about violations of human rights, about corruption,
and that basically Ukraine, it'll take them a long, long
long time to even be considered in Europe. And now Moldova,
by the way, is being decoupled from Ukraine and Georgia.
Remember there was these three countries were mentioned as trifactor

(07:43):
possible joining the EU, and now EU is focusing their
attention on removing Moldova from this trifactor and allowing Moldova
to expeditiously join EU. And they're talking about Moldova joining
AU by twenty twenty eight, and nobody is talking about
Ukraine joining EU. You up to twenty forty at least,
and nobody even winking at that. So very soon I

(08:06):
think we'll hear that Ukraine is definitely not on the
table officially. So there were several calls also that can
be transcribed to a simple language so that people understand
in the light of this corruption, Moldova being the coupled.
The calls are about Zelensky being tiresome for different politicians.

(08:29):
And now imagine a Ukrainian who's sitting at home for
seven to twelve hours without electricity, some of his relatives
are dead or wounded or fighting on the front, and
they're understanding that. Okay, Aristovitch was talking about that, and
in the news we're seeing that you likely will not happen.
Then what the heck did we fight for? We also
observe that a lot of money was stolen on the

(08:51):
energy systems, and by the way, the money were transferred
to Moscow directly, so we do have Russian spies to
the level of vice Prime Minister who was appointed by
our beloved presidents supposedly okay, and likely there are more spies.
So that's the feeling of a knife and a bag
in an cold, dark apartment under a threat over front

(09:13):
to that can collapse, which we will talk about a
bit later. So all that horror that requires some brain
capacity and time to understand and unpack. And now Ukrainians
will have to expand their worldview, the picture of how
they see this world, and they need to expand their attention.

(09:37):
They need to allow some thoughts that they were trying
to avoid for several years and including that, Yeah, there
are a lot of spies in the government, a lot
of people working for Moscow, and many of them were
legally and notwfully appointed and elected. And if there'll be

(10:01):
the next scandal about the military defense, the military production complex,
then that likely will pass the threshold of their ability
to cope with the situation. Because I do talk with
a lot of Ukrainians there trying to grasp at straws.
They're saying, not everybody can be a spy there right,
there was just one network of them, of course, in

(10:22):
a very sensitive area of the economy, and President still
probably didn't know and he's trying to punish them now,
My dear friends, he knew everything, and without his appointments
and knowledge and nods, all that would not be possible
to organize. The organizer likely was on the earmark, and

(10:42):
President was likely just nodding and closing his eyes. And
the tapes from that apartment that were leaked that are
part of the prosecution effort can actually prove that a
thunder a couple more minutes. I would really want to
be wrong. I would love for everything that I said

(11:04):
since September of twenty three for the last couple of
years to be wrong. For the last couple of years,
I was called somebody who is barking at ghosts, somebody
who doesn't see the situation, who invents things. But now
you start seeing several lines gathering together into one effort
to one fist that will likely break the back of

(11:25):
Ukraine's government. This was just a lengthy process. I would
give a lot to be wrong, but life does reveal
itself regardless of my opinions. I'll like say, it seems
that right now, just one small push with finger can

(11:48):
cause a huge crumble or collapse in the Ukrainian leadership.
Official position of the office is that sure investigation needs
to be aided. We should not have or allowed corruption.
But right now we already hear that there are some

(12:09):
materials against Chernashov, who is ready to work with the investigation.
Umiarov mentioned that Mindich was coursing him into purchasing bad
quality bulletproof vests, and that is mentioned in the materials.
Materials are saying that Omarov was coursed or pushed and

(12:31):
he was aware of the quality of these vests. Omeov
came out saying that no, he was not aware of
that specific model. They found some others that didn't work
and we did not sign off on them, and he's
ready to cooperate with the investigation. So now it seems
that there are two options that we can observe in
the near future. That a the corruption networks are ready

(12:55):
and they covered their backyards, so it's difficult to catch them.
Or they'll go to the end, they'll go fighting and
they'll go down in flames. Well, you know, Alexander, the
beauty of Ukraine is that all scenarios are usually happening
at the same time. In parallel, and most people in

(13:19):
the countries where I travel see that likely this energy
system is going to be scandal is going to be
fed to Ukraine citizens because this one has a Moscow trace,
and that's why they're all ready to cooperate. And this
is a chosen setup. Since this was already known and
investigated and becomes loud that it's difficult to leave that

(13:43):
scandal quiet, so they decided to do damage control and
pick the least damaging scandal. And by the way, who
helped Mindage to leave the country several hours before rest right,
Apparently it is one of the prosecutors in that system
who helped him to evade. And we need to understand

(14:06):
that prosecutor's office is also rather corrupt. So as one
friend of mine said that it's curious to observe the
interaction of your national corruptions with our international corruption bodies,
and we can understand that in a bigger picture, if
they fail to control this process, that snowball may acquire

(14:30):
the uncontrollable speed and damage that people who organized the scandal,
who wanted to present it as success over the Russian
spies and stuff, they may probably did not have not
calculated it properly the outcomes and imagine now people will

(14:50):
start looking on each other. They might be more materials
showing up. Nobody knows what will And there is still
a version that was American administration that pushed this document
pile to into production, and they can play a dual
role here. They can NABU, an agency in Ukraine, may
be telling Zelenski that sure, we have agreed and watch us.

(15:14):
We'll jail the bad people and then will reappoint some
of your people. We'll switch Galushenka from one position to
another and you will be okay. But they may also
be deceiving or that can be an operative game, and
they can be leaking more materials as it goes. So
the key point here is whether it is truly inspired

(15:36):
by American administration or whether NABU themselves, Ukrainian Independent Investigative
Agency started that. Then there will be some agreements internally
to save some butts on Zelenski's office. But if it
is pushed by America, then it'll be harder to wiggle
their way out of this. They will still try, but

(15:59):
it'll be more different. I don't know exactly the course
the source of this push. It seems to me that
it may be Nabo itself that started the scandal. If
there'll be more scandalous things coming out, more damaging things,
that perhaps it is not Nabu seeking for agreement and

(16:22):
works with the President's office. So in some option, of course,
this is the element of pressure on Zaganski's office for
foreign partners, and they might use this lever, but we
don't know yet. That's why I would tell our viewers
do not be too rushed to be giddy and happy,

(16:42):
and the office of the President is surprisingly calm right now.
That also puts a stone on the weight of the
second theory. They had semantic crisis statement, but it was
rather funny and mellow. So answering the question how will
they distract the society, they may not even try to.
I may just continue living and doing stuff as they do. Now. Again,

(17:03):
we're at war. If it was peace, there would be
another might done one hundred percent, But right now there
is a threat of affront. Russia is attacking as daily.
Plus you know, additionally, the West has not supplied additional
resources for another MA done. There are no more boys
with cardboards and girls, so the West is not actively

(17:27):
pursuing that apparently I'm not seeing any funded or otherwise
inspired protests yet, so that's why I'm thinking that probably
is going to be some inner agreement between NABU and
President's office. This is most probable in my view, but
it can be managed situation like this, but it could
be a part of a bigger picture with more steps

(17:48):
down the line. I would not be too giddy about, Oh,
this will be the complete end right now, But the
fact itself remains that highest political leadership directly linked to Zegensky,
his friends like Mindich, who did not take official positions,
but who provide aid in exploiting and corrupting our systems

(18:10):
including energy and military manufacturing, and additional layer of Russian
spies on top of that that were draining money towards
Russia and providing some management over what is being done
and where apparently these networks are being built since twenty
twenty two. And the peculiar thing I want to note

(18:34):
that even when I was at the office, if we
invented some ways to re route energy through different transformers
through different systems in Ukraine after some of them are
being damaged during the next attack from Russia, those new
pathways were targetly destroyed, so one can I'll ask a

(18:56):
lot of questions here, how did that become known? And
now Galushanka is the Minister of Justice, you cannot approach
him that easily. And he is working on when he
is working on the corruption in the presidential office. This
action can be sanctioned only by the president, So Galushinka

(19:17):
cannot investigate officials at his own volution. Independent prosecutors supposedly
investigators supposedly can. But in any case, this is a
good beginning. The whole sector of national security and defense
that was in the key group of most important networks

(19:37):
and most important offices in the country, like a heartbeat
for human body was apparently corrupted with Russian special services
aid and money were transferred over to Russia. So this
is super cynical, alexay what they've done with that. And
I want to bring to light a couple more items
here to shine light on this duality one way or

(20:01):
the other. First, I did not understand this news that
Specialized Prosecutor's office returned money to Sternianka, the money that
they confiscated. Right, he is the SBU, the Ukrainian security figure.
But that's a secondary thing for him, Alexander. So he's
the pagent of the left wing of Democratic Party of

(20:24):
the United States and those specialists who served in Ukraine
during the times of Uliana Saprun. There is an oe
out there that he was actually dating the grandkid of
Oh you mean like real relations. Yeah, yeah, okay, that's
an interesting fact to consider. That's in one hand. On
the other hand, I let's say we see hysteria that

(20:47):
this NABU Ukrainian investigative agencies fighting against Ukraine is actually
supporting Russia. Yeah, this is the anti crisis pamphlet from
Petrov who hopes that he will not be to serve
in the Ukrainian army and maybe they'll live and shove
a few dollars of his panties. Don't take it too seriously.

(21:08):
So what then we do with the Russian trace in
this story, Alexey, You should ask the country intelligence of
USBU what is their opinion on that? And DBR. Of course,
because DBR determines and works with the higher level of
executives of Ukraine and SBU can investigate Russian influence. They
can create joint groups to investigate that. The problem is

(21:29):
that their joint groups up until now usually end up
taking some of the Nabu people who've been investigating or
maybe corrupt question Mark who is now is being interrogated
in jail, and telegram channels are arguing which of these
services help Russia more? Alex say, do you like or

(21:49):
dislike the suggestion of Parashenka, who seems to have revived
from ashes like phoenix, and who suggests to dismantle the
Cabinet of ministers and replace them with the cabinet ministers
of national unity. Listen, Alexandra, these measures should have been
taken back in twenty second. Today this is like putting
band aids on the dead body. Parashanka's agenda is completely

(22:15):
targeting inner political leadership, and he's targeting the current power
to poke them again, who will, of course not do
what he suggests. Second, to perhaps diminish his risks on
the criminal investigations, because if his ministers would be part

(22:36):
of that cabinet, it'll be easier for him to get
rid of the accusations and criminal prosecutions. And of course
third is to add more to his pr and if
you look at his statements, basically he blames Znansky from
everything since the dinosaurs extinction and Parashanka's party is apparently

(22:58):
faultless and fantastic and should be voted for. But I
would remind that during Prushanka times, those were the times
when people were transferring money in big Duffel bags between
different ministries and between the corruption elements of the society.
So I think, in my view we need to remove

(23:21):
dismantle not only the cabinet of ministers, but a lot
of congressmen too, and a lot of administration, and conduct
a whole mass illustration of who is involved in what
it's impossible to do during the war times, but hopefully
can be done after the war is over. But I
can not be an optimist, right So hypothetically, if Trump

(23:46):
is meeting with anybody, since he is meeting with johny in, yeah,
it was very mild, not much press, yet the meeting
was actually happening. They do have a holiday a celebration.
Rather in the United States, Republicans have prevailed over the

(24:08):
Democrats and shut down is coming to an end. So
you can see in the videos that there is a
tribune with people making statements, journalists asking questions, and somebody
asks a question about insignia on the money that is
being recovered in Ukraine. Do you think that one word

(24:30):
of that caliber shot near the Zelenski's address near the
White House may cause a lot more damage to Zelenski. No, Alexander,
this situation and this power is much stronger than one
word or one scandal. This whole agent thing with transferring

(24:53):
money from Electra grades to Russia and higher Ukrainian leadership
involved in that scandal, that even that will probably not
dismantle Zinsky by itself, And I would not be surprised
if a lot of figures involved in the scandal will
be let go without any punishment or just let leave
the country. There are too many interests entangled in Ukraine, unfortunately,

(25:20):
including of course American side. Nothing is too simple, and
Johanni is one of the first examples of that. His executives,
his soldiers are killing some of the Christians, and today

(25:42):
Trump mentions that if that will continue with Christians, but
where in Nigeria, then they'll have to intervene. Meantime, in
Syria and Sudan, Christians are being attacked to and Trump
is not mentioning that because there is something to fight
for in Nigeria. There is a big game that America

(26:04):
can play there against China and Russian Federation. But in
the north with Sudan, it's pretty remote and there is
nothing to go for up there. So big politics definitely
is involved, and it's not moral. These questions cannot be
asked from the point of view of morality in the
big politics. It doesn't play there, just retribution, and morals

(26:27):
have no weight there. Now, if Zlansky will start doing
what the United States needs him to do, suddenly he
will all of a sudden become good, a nice fellow,
and there'll be interesting publications explaining that he does have
some elements of corruption like Chapnashov and Vindag in his government.
But Zlanski himself is crystal clear he's actually look even

(26:50):
helping the investigation. And sadly, jurisprudence and law is not
independent from big politics. You cannot put Trump in a
position where he will repent and start attacking Zevanski with
one question here. If something may happen, perhaps the only

(27:11):
option would be some unplanned upheaval or uprising of people
in Ukraine. But will that be instigated by a situation
on the front, by collapses there or by energy systems?
But even this I think has very low probability, so
they'll be pushing it further. And if somehow it will

(27:34):
slow down to spring of twenty six, then yeah, I
think eventually they'll be not just my done, there'll be
four my dons in Ukraine. But for now this is
just a storm in the interwebs. Even if there'll be two, three,
four more scandals. I do not see another political leader
in Ukraine who would lead people, with the country fighting

(27:59):
a war and and having collapsing elements of the front,
with that backdrop, who will lead in uprising Againstilensky. So
in this picture we can see Moscow agents, Moscow spies, infiltration,
we see Ukrainian leadership who is involved with them, who
is corrupt, who is participating in deaths of their own

(28:21):
people because of their corruption. And they'll be coming to
the media, to the TV screens nightly and talking about
replacing some corrupt elements and going on further and forward
and hoping to win. And this will continue until the
moment there is enough revolt in society, or until something

(28:44):
drastic happens. Right now, that probability I to not see
anything changing in the next six to twelve months. Unfortunately,
we will know that they are corrupt in Ukraine. They
know that, we do know that they are corrupt, and
nobody is ready to put everything on the scale to

(29:06):
change it. So they'll be passing in your face telling
you it is rain and we'll be dying for them.
And the trenches, well, they'll be stealing money on energy,
stealing money on the military orders and the military industry,
and the Ukrainians will have to pretend that not everything
is so simple. Of course there is corruption, but we

(29:28):
do have the supreme leader who is defending us, who
is holding the front. So we will investigate that, but
we're not going to change horses at the crossing. So
it is just too heavy to acknowledge, and it will
not be happening immediately, And societal schizophrenia will have a

(29:52):
very interesting hue to that when everybody understands that the
king is not only nude, but he's actually corrupt, corrupt,
and he is a criminal offender on a lot of
articles of the code, and people will be convincing themselves
that is just not the right time. We should not
be prosecuting him now. We'll do it later. Say how

(30:14):
are we going to get money, how are we going
to get support? Then oh, there will be that doesn't
affect it. Europeans will be giving, especially even Americans will
be giving. They'll be giving less on the backdrop of
elections and other things, mostly because of their internal issues,

(30:34):
maybe on the backdrop of re elections to their Congress.
There may be some of those who support less funding
from the United States who can prevail. But Europe will
pick this up and politics, big politics will play that
complete lack of any morality, any ethics, lack of professionalism

(30:56):
will only instigate that situation unfolding in the way I
just described, and human lives is just a fodder for
big politics. Another good news is that the moment it
will be not politically convenient for big politics, they will

(31:16):
turn on a different speed, a different direction, and then
the landscape will be and his government will be thrown out.
So if at some point there'll be a command that
he is bad and his policies are bad, nothing will stop.
Even the historical pictures in Times magazine will not save
his ass. Even his way to addressing and appealing to people,

(31:39):
nothing will work. So Alex say, why do you think
Komierov went to Stumbul negotiations. I think it's the planned
exchange perhaps of prisoners of war, maybe unplanned. We know,
exchange one thousand for another. We don't know yet. We'll
see when the news come out. If there'll be a

(32:03):
lot of news published about a big exchange of prisoners
of war where a lot of our defenders come back,
then probably it's part of the counter crisis measures that
Zelenski office is implementing. If they'll be peddling more the
topic of negotiations revival, then it's probably towards Americans pandering
to Trump's government saying, hey, you wanted us to negotiate

(32:25):
with Russians, here we are. And then of course there
is a third option that they will negotiate on something
real on the front. But these people cannot not lie.
They have already cheated and deceived everybody. Okay, so alex
say the remarks from Rubio recently that nothing was agreed

(32:47):
upon the Buddapest was not agreed and today he is
coming and saying that everything is a memorandum. We cleared
our position. Both sides can just follow these points and
that'll be the end of this war. And suddenly mate
off as flying over to Turkey. Well, Alexander, neither Ukraine

(33:10):
nor Russia is going to fulfill American memorandum. And on
the West. They do think that Russia will start collapsing
economically soon, and by April of twenty six they'll be
facing default and they'll be suffering a real chance of
not being able to conduct military actions in the same

(33:32):
scale that they're doing now because they'll run out of
money and money to support their military action. So, like
Trump said, let them fight. He made this point not
accidentally because he's getting a lot of intelligence that Russia
is on the brink of a serious economic crisis. Whether
it's true or not, we'll see. You may disagree with

(33:52):
the reality, but this is the strategy of the American Office.
So nobody is going to give Russia and those four
districts in Crimea quietly and demilitarize and do whatever else
they wanted with the Ukraine. But Russia has captured a
couple districts, the Nyezkan Laganskol most completely, and they'll be

(34:17):
likely more fighting for the next six months now. If
American aid will likely start dwindling in December, which is
a probability December January, then it will be really difficult
for Ukraine. Ukraine military. But even then, nobody is going
to surrender or present things to Russia for free. Now,

(34:38):
as for Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Lavarov, who is
supposedly under some scrutiny, this perhaps is again showing again
that there are a lot of rumors in Ukraine that
Ukraine is happy to grasp on. He is not removed
from his position. He is perhaps he was in indeed

(35:00):
treating his cold, but yeah, he's not being replaced yet. Alexey,
we saw another publication today Ukraine that put In will
be taking it in three stages and the final points
will be Hardkoff Nicolaife as a district, like Aristovich said

(35:20):
back in the day, Well excuse me, but Harkov district
already has twenty five extra buffer kilometers in the Parogia
there is a breakthrough and her son in Nikolausk districts.
That's a big question mark. Why Because crossing Knieper were
combined ground and aerial operations across the water barriers. One

(35:44):
of them is the Black Sea, another is a Nipper River.
It is more complex than it may seem. That may
happen only under complete collapse of our defense on the south,
when Russians will just walk in. Although and it's pretty
it's not happening yet. Although our front is cracking up
in some places, Zaparogia is probably under more risk, alex say,

(36:09):
I want to review the situation on the front in
a with a very untrivial start. Let's look at the
Zapparogia first. Bezugla wrote about that she was attacked together
with Bevignettev by people in Ukraine, saying that while we're

(36:31):
being told stories about three hundred, now three fifty because
there was some fog that entered Pakrovsk and they counted
them right exactly, Alexander. They somebody counted those three fifteen
Pakrovska under the cover of fog. And now they're talking
also about Zaparogia, about the surrender or encirclement near Gulapulia

(36:57):
and Russians, and I do not remember that for quite
a while, well official acknowledgment that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing
from a spianofka in that region. That has not happened
for a while. Apparently, the events I think, Alexandra a
happening so catastrophically and so fast that they decided to
do some damage control and talk about that, and perhaps

(37:17):
they got an order from the office to play the
difficult truth. Why because on the backdrop of a difficult
truth and crumbling front, you can always say, what might
Danne are you talking about? Our front is hanging on
a thread, and you should not be It's not the
time to change the government. So I would not be
surprised that there'll be more truth coming up from the front.

(37:41):
And those people who will be talking about let's remove
the landscape from power, they'll be immediately pointed out as
Moscow spies, because look, nobody wants to do that power
replacement during the critical crisis on the front. We cannot
be playing politics here. Why Gulepoli is being encircled while

(38:03):
many military already is starting to write and post that
in the Neper we used to be Neper Beetrosko city
military units are already dividing certain underground fortifications between them.
So that already tells you what military really think about
weight to weight alexy. So can you translate that from

(38:23):
semi military to the civilian. Well on the front is
about seventy or eighty kilometers away from the city, the
city starts to be penetrated by military and eyed upon
different objects, and some of the rare detachments need to
devise locations for command outposts for operative activities, so they're

(38:45):
starting to divide basements between themselves, and that's what they're
writing about that the basements are already being committed, according
to some military publications. But the main idea of Marianna,
she's saying a very remarkable thing that while media, operative

(39:08):
and political attentions are tied in the Brapolian Pakrovsk, Russian
generals by drawing the last of the reserves that Ukraine has,
are basically drawing bare the other parts of the front,

(39:30):
and they're solving a task of breaking through Enzo Parosia
from south to the north. And in Nebra Petrovsk they're
going towards the west. There is about twenty five kilometers
protrusion there. This is roughly two thirds of a distance

(39:53):
of a modern drone that can reach twenty five kilometers.
It's the length of and fifty millimeters artillery. So this
basically is a front township, a city at the front.
So if that will continue and Pakrovski Mirgret group will
be encircled and I don't think we have enough reserves

(40:17):
looking at what we're saying, and Siriski is talking about
some counter offensive up in the north, but not in
that area. So Russians may get extra fifty to seventy
thousand troops if they close that encirclement. If forty thousand
of them leave for Niperpetrovsk front with a perspective of

(40:40):
encirclement of Gulepoiler group, and thirty will be thrown down
south as the parogia to aid in breaking through our
front may not weather it well. All these breakthroughs, small ones,
the big ones. This is like water leaking through the wall.
At first the wall becomes wet, then you see some drops,
then you see streams, and then eventually the wall is
about to collapse. Today we're already seeing some streams, and

(41:05):
the reasons are still same as we've been calling them
out for the last five years. First of all is
lack of personnel, and unfortunately we have some in quotes
great minds managing our army, like recent statement that we
do not have infantry. We need to learn how to
fight without infantry, and Masha and Seroja likely will figure

(41:29):
it out right. So those authors of publication, so rely
on them. Things will be happening well, and military just
giggling looking at at because that's sometimes in despair. Marianna
is being attacked for her publications. But the same idea prevails.

(41:52):
You draw attention from one part of the front while
you're doing something there. Remember then at the airport the
DAP operation, we had a little bit of reserves. Russia
started working on that airport and Parashenka told Mushenka to
not allow Russians take it. Now, we really had heroic

(42:15):
units fighting in that airport that was shot through, and
it was bitter cold, and we burnt our reserves there
completely trying to hold for that unholdable area. And when
there was the bults of the situation operation, there was
not enough reserves to deblock them there. This is the

(42:37):
law of hand to hand fighting. You show, you indicate
the lower angle, and you attack on the top. You
indicate the left and you attack on the front. Russians
know very well that Ukrainian leadership are eager to drop
for some PR, so they're glad to help to create

(42:59):
another forward. Another desire in Ukrainian leadership to create another PR.
Event of how Ukrainians are holding something and meantime use
it to grind down Ukrainian reserves. So, by the way,
why Russians value that a lot? You can see that

(43:20):
it was Russian Federation president. Mister Putin came out with
a statement saying that Pakrovski has already taken, and everybody
were laughing, saying that, oh, Putin is dumb, and Gerrasimov
who cheated him and reported that Pakrovsk is taken while
Pakrovsk is not taken, and everybody were laughing, why Putin
is making such a blunder. And our guy said, look,

(43:43):
we will show Putin that he is wrong. We will
take Pacross back and we'll plant our flag and we'll
show him that he was wrong. And of course they
dumped reserves there. Serski visited to command out post, Budanov
dropped there with the helicopters and showed that Pakrovski is
still ours. Budanov already has a fantastic portfolio of these events,

(44:07):
like he's fighting against Putin and Dermark as well. Journalists
are really trying a lot to make sure that they
don't get drafted. And here Putin lost his face, even
though he promised that Pakrovski is Russian, but they are
failing to understand that this was an intentional trap. International

(44:27):
media pumping off Pakrovsk to make sure that Ukraine dumps
their reserves in that place, and then they were basically
semin circled tied up. Their meantime, Russians are breaking through
in Khrkov, making two breakthroughs in Zaparogi direction under Ni
Prepetrovski and Pakrovsk itself is still you know, even though

(44:51):
we in Ukraine put an effort into holding it, nothing
is really well there. So Ukrainian leadership fell again for
this Russian maneuver, and we should have learned that it's
been since twenty fourteen that we're falling. But since we
have no reserves and nothing to cover it with, you know,
we're like that naked king. You can do whatever, but
there is nothing, Alex say, how come we have no reserves?

(45:14):
They are drafting people left and right. Well, Alex, they're
running away. Yeah, you can see the videos of five
to six draftsmen picking out people in the street, break
into homes. But there are no reserves. Well yeah, they
all go a well, look, officially we have three hundred
thousand a well three hundred and forty thousand, according to

(45:35):
the recent publications in the open media by the Congressman.
And many people are saying that maybe it's wrong number
because some people leave there go a well several times
and each time they get paperwork started. Well, you can

(45:55):
also say that in many cases they never start the paperwork.
If you count all the power agencies that we have,
we have about a million, two hundred people, including vodyguards,
police and other agencies. A third of them is a
wle at the ones who are training, who are dead,

(46:18):
who are wounded, at the non fighting units, because even
in the American Army, it's only twenty eight people who
are actually fighting the enemy in the combat action. The
rest are providing resources and support, they're not shooting. So

(46:39):
we have about three hundred thousand a well one out
of three two are non military, non fighting units, So
you have about two hundred thousand roughly, and there will
be transport and communications and included into these three hundred

(47:05):
to two hundred and fifty three hundred thousand, out of
which we're losing about ten thousand people a month a
well wounded, et cetera. So now you can understand that
In this rough math, about one hundred and fifty thousand
people are holding our front. How does that correlate to
the station the ground. One kilometer of the front may
be defended by four to six people Russian group there

(47:30):
is up to seven hundred thousand. If it's the same proportion,
they have about two hundred thousand in active action, and
they have ability to create local advantage. Given that they
continue the draft, one can say more effectively than Ukraine.
They can create a local advantage in the local area
of the front. They are not defending their attacking and

(47:53):
since our leadership is making that stupid mistake since the
beginning of this war, when we told our troops to
hold the positions, we lost all ability to maneuver, to
create surprises for the enemy, to create traps for them
on the strategic, comperative and tactical levels. Because that order

(48:14):
basically tells Russians where Ukrainians are going to be. They'll
be holding every trench by any means necessary, and they'll
be holding onto that so they know where we are.
And all these fantastic hits On and Hyrdkov operations they're
done with. We cannot repeat them under this guidance and
our order to stand and hold. We turned with that order,

(48:36):
we turned our defense, our army into a beef patty
that Russians are rotating on the plate and just choosing
where to take a bite from it. And it took
them a while to grow their recruitment, a couple of
years to get to the tempo they need. And they
also calculated rather well that they need once simple maneuver.

(49:01):
They need to escalate the importance of a certain event
on the front, and Ukraine will respond by sending their
reserves to that area, so they'll bare the other parts
of the front where you can actually execute your operations
there that are more meaningful to you in reality. That's
why Pakrovsk is in the media limelight while Zaparogia is

(49:23):
facing Russian breakthroughs. And this is a strategic media operation
with the highest level of media support in Russia by Putain. Unfortunately,
our leadership, our media is not catching that end of
the first segment

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