War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1362. Umerov AWOL, How Much Time is Left for Zelensky? Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
You hellout. Dear friends, guests and subscribers of my channel,
thank you for expecting our interviews, our weekly recordings. Good
evening Alexei who has joined us. Alexey, it appears that
things are really unfolding fast the echoes of min digegate,

(00:27):
however they are called in the media, In reality, what
I think the processes Ukraine is facing now are very
complex and rather dangerous because military and military political components
are also activated in this crisis and their viewers. Before

(00:50):
we go in, please do not forget to click like
and subscribe, of course, subscribe to privateer station, click our
likes to help us bring these dreams too regularly. Care
codes that you see on the screen on the left
is the one that you can use to ask a
question in advance, and the one next to Alexei on

(01:10):
the right is the link to his school of communication
and thought. Recently, Alexei's answer about specific photos and personal
about relations, about philosophy, psychology, all these questions that you
may have. That's where you go to ask them and

(01:33):
to study if you want to. All right, so our
usual poll finish the sentence The victory of Ukraine in
the war with Russia A was stolen, b was unachievable
from the beginning, three was lost by unprofessionals and stupid,

(01:54):
and four will be possible to achieve. Yet Alexeyoda think
I would unite the first three stolen, flundered, flunked, and
never had a bright chance for that. So many people

(02:16):
think that diletantism is just mode of behavior while or
temporary thing, but with some people it actually evolves into
a psychological condition when people are eager to do everything
and anything without even understanding that they're not qualified to

(02:37):
do that or they don't have enough skills. Okay. Meanwhile,
with all this crisis here, we have Zelenski visiting Paris
saying that Ukraine will buy one hundred jets air defense systems.
Macron is greeting human saying that they have some special
command near Paris that cooperate with Ukraine. Harder and Ziansky

(03:05):
apparently really needed this meeting in Paris to counterweait his
scandal with mindage that we talked about last week. Do
you think he managed to cover to take whatever little
bits of shit he could with Paris office and spread
over the mindach scandal. Well, listen, Alexander, both in Greece

(03:32):
or France, wherever he would go, he would say, I
brought you a lot of money, my friends, this is
business relations. If for some reason it will be very
uncomfortable for me in Ukraine and I will leave it,
I'll bring with me a ton of money that I

(03:55):
will invest in deposit in your country for years to come.
In parallel, he's probably also saying that he's caring about
national security in defense of Ukraine, and he's working tirelessly.
So it appears like to say that Europeans eate the

(04:15):
spy just fine. Well, yeah, Europeans, they so far have
swallowed it. They have a special agency in Europe that
is chasing European money that are being given left and right.
And they have a huge folder on Ukraine violations, which

(04:36):
already doesn't fit the room that it originally was stored
in by the size of violations and things they track.
Then there is also a consensus between the United States
and Britain that Zenanski needs to go different reasons. United
States do not like him because he doesn't want to

(04:57):
strike peace accords and bridge thinking is not effective enough
in fighting with Russia. But there is a consensus that
they need to replace him. He needs to go. What
is happening now is the second part of a marmizant
belly who was predicted by let's not say who back

(05:20):
Remember our conversation here when we said Zadansky will be
probably actively pushed out by November or in November. So
here we are. So what is happening now is transit
of power. Power is being changed. What is he doing?
He's trying to put the eggs in different baskets to

(05:44):
portray a better picture to manage semantic crisis things. If
whatever he done there, signing the contract with France would
have happened, not on the backdrop of this scandal. That
would have been cheered under normal circumstance. Another way to
diversify guess supplies, especially when they're being targeted by Russia.

(06:10):
Additional agreement with friends to support that should be uploaded.
And I can applaud for these two good things even
now the problem is that they're outweighed by two hundred
and twenty two other bad things that he had done.
So wait, Alex say, this means the contract is good,

(06:31):
but there is no arms. There is no weapons, They
are non existent. What troops after the under war in Ukraine.
What for Okay, Alexandra, what one needs to understand here,
If need be friends can actually give Ukraine a credit
for ten raphaele jets. They can give Ukraine a credit

(06:54):
so Ukraine can buy them and you can sign a
contract that you can get them ten every ten years
and create some infrastructure in Ukraine on these terms. Now
Ukraine will have to pay it back. On these terms.
You can get a credit from France, from EU, from
some commercial bank. That really does post a lot of

(07:15):
questions how realistic it is. Who will be responsible? But
I think if we go in that rabbit hole will
be going away from the main topic of discussion. To
make it simpler. As a comparison, imagine Marinski palace is
burning and Zlansky comes over and throws two cards and says, hey,

(07:39):
I have ace and a king. Yet the Marinski is burning. Oh, burning,
So this is not a setup, This is not for show. Yeah, Alexander,
Remember we talked about different scenarios. I'm thinking that Zelenskin here, mug.

(08:03):
We're thinking that they found a mutual agreement with Nabu
and they can find a way out. But apparently it
seems like for every step of theirs Nabu makes another
step and do not report to them about making it,

(08:24):
so they're still playing an operative game with them. A
guess an example Alexi okay, So they, for example, come
to agreement that yeah, let's drop everything on mindach a solution,
painter patch, you implement sanctions, you revoke citizenship, or try
to prosecute them. Len's game. Nabi is helping him to

(08:49):
continue with that. They think that of course the gas contract,
weapons contract is good, goes to Europe and suddenly Omerov leaves.
And what one needs to understand that Amerov is a
citizen of the United States. Also, rivanos I made a
statement today that the next investigation will go inside the

(09:13):
military industrial complex and this will be much more painful
investigation than energy systems. And there'll be hundreds of million
dollars stolen there that they discover that was not agreed
with the zanskiverer, likely because of his reaction. So what
one needs to understand is that those who are American

(09:37):
money that were stolen, as you've seen those money bags
in Naba, they're packaged in America. So what do you
think America will do if they learned that American citizen
was stealing American money. Right, they'll probably put him in jail, exactly.
He has no other options. Omerov needs to cooperate with investigation.

(09:58):
That's the only thing that may put his future in
some safety and also protect his family and businesses and
other things he has. So he almost want to say
one hundred percent will go and cooperate with investigation if
he's not already doing that, And he'll probably tell a
lot of interesting and tasty things for the investigators. And

(10:22):
I'm quite sure these things will start showing up in
American media. Now, did Ali Baba know about that nuance? Know?
He did not. I think they thought the crisis will
be strong, will be localized. They will have to forfeit
some of the positions and show that they're fighting with

(10:44):
corruption and renegotiate their situation with Nabo. But every time
they reach some agreement, Nabo brings more issues and they're
failing to crisis control that Ali Baba and the forty robbers. Yeah,
that's a good comparison. Today, Chernshov came out of the

(11:08):
statement saying that guys, you don't understand the scale of
this horror. Vice Prime Minister is taking bribes. Vice Prime
minister is refusing the accusations. The bail is fifty five millions.
He's saying, this is not my voice on tapes. I
don't know who that Chagivari is apparently the name used

(11:29):
in the conversations there, and everybody understands that he's a
very close friend of Zelensky. He doesn't look like a
weak link in Zelensky's chain of corruption. But if you
look at the examples of Umirov and a couple more figures,

(11:52):
Radha and Nabu were inviting an ex minister who already resigned,
hasn't been voted for, but people are saying that she
already left abroad. And what's interesting is they're allowed to
leave the country, which I think is done by Nabu
that allows them to leave under certain condition. Are they

(12:15):
being let go on purpose to be re investigated outside
of Ukraine? I think so. I think Nabu is getting
both data and money, and FBI is getting witnesses probably
or collaborators, so to say delicately, Zevensky's government is caught

(12:38):
in the trap. They're panicking. The world is the floor
is falling from under their feet, and they're high up
in the building. They're grasping at the walls and under pressure,
they're making mistakes, they're making decisions that seemed ideal to them.
But yeah, they organized. So NABU is working, for example,

(13:03):
with these accused ones for and again this is me fantasizing,
but NABU basically offering them. If you want to leave Ukraine,
you need to transfer money to this fund of defense
of kids or whatever. But those who leave Ukraine, not
everybody have enough resources to hide in Vienna or some

(13:25):
other places. I think a lot of these people will
be part to a bigger case. And Alexey, what is
that all hustle for? Well, two things, ultimately to Topplesnansk
government and to get information from all those people running away,

(13:50):
leaving the country, fleeing those who are under investigation, get
some deals going with them, and get more information from them.
So Lensky, Alexei, how long do you think you'll be
able to stain power? Okay, let's analyze what was voiced
in the media. Minister Formulations of Turkey said before the

(14:13):
third of December, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will need
to start and their tonality is almost ultimatum. Negotiations need
to start before the third of December, so three weeks.
I think at least they will have to be some
serious changes, probably publication of a bigger and more scandalous material,

(14:41):
and international community will have to react. Ukrainian society will
have to react, an army and the parliament. Of course,
the Center will likely be in the parliament. There are
some rumors for now that there was a revolt that
your Solidarity Giulieti Mashenka said, dear Mark needs to resign.
They need to form new coalition with technical government, otherwise

(15:04):
nothing will be signed, et cetera. That's already good, that's
already good development and the second, third, fourth trenches of
materials are not published yet, so everything I think will
expedt from here. Yes, there are rumors in media that
the second set of documents about Znanski will be available
in January, but I think they will surface much sooner.

(15:31):
PISCO is making statements in Russia that yes, they're ready
to have another meeting, and they're saying we are interested
in this meeting to happen the soonest and Turkey says
December third. That tells me that there is some pressure
here and there's probably an indicator that a lot of

(15:51):
events will happen, if not by third of December, at
least before New Year. So when you're in escence developing
operation to transit government, you cannot spread it in time
too far. And I'm looking at different signs. I'm thinking
that the process of revolve Zansky is already happening. Then

(16:14):
the main principle that is used is to make it rapidly,
in a blitzkrieg style, so that the site being removed
will not be able to counter effectively. Oma already reported
that he is not coming back from the United States.
Do you think he already got a visit from gentlemen

(16:37):
from a three letter agency already? Yeah. I don't understand, Alexei.
The geography of his Turkey cut Our, Saudi Arabia, United States.
Who is the head of this mission, who needs to
travel so far? Well, okay, he's the head of a

(16:58):
negotiation group with Russia. But Ballpark, we haven't seen Danilav
as well, who was traveling a lot. Well. In any case, Alexandra,
these trips are being signed by President directly because President
is the head of National Security Office in Ukraine and
that OMETAP is the secretary of this entity. So there's

(17:19):
got to be some papers, and there's got to be
official release. And of course if there'll be any persecution,
they can pull up the documents and see the details
who allowed that. But okay, if there is a reason
at some point the person needs to come back. Now,

(17:41):
if he comes back, and I cannot fully exclude that
because that's still on the table, I can only imagine
how much things are being offered to him from Zeransky side.
Now imagine that he comes back like on the show,
I think that day. The next day Nable will release

(18:01):
the order to arrest him and will publish materials where
he figures as the spender or the participant or organizer
over the corruption scheme in the sphere of jurisprudence and
Ministry of Defense. So for him to return is to
go back to prison if he understands that. If he

(18:23):
understands a little here, I don't think will come. On
the other hand, FBI may course him to go if
they need to, and then he would. But we'll see
in the nearest future. He supposedly should come back by
the twentieth, so we'll see. Alex say, we have talked

(18:47):
to different people in Ukraine, those who left the country.
In my personal communications outside of these streams, the main
sentiment is, oh my god, when will they finally jail
all these scoundrels. We're so tired of this government and
the structure, and they're tired of the conditions of living

(19:09):
and this house of cards that is wavering and crumbling.
What emotions do you have, alexay Well, On one hand,
my emotions are very human. I have a lot of
satisfaction because I announced that this will happen two years ago,
and these people who are being arrested now for all

(19:32):
these steps, they organized a nationwide campaign against me to
expunge me from the country because I started talking about that.
So that brings to mind an old military proverb that
the world is the planet is round, but it has

(19:54):
the shape of a suitcase, and you always meet in
the corners. And about seventy eighty five percent of my
feelings is sadness. How much will have to pay for
the crash of this regime and the price that we
will have to pay for the next republic that will

(20:17):
arise from the ashes. The price is catastrophic. We discussed that,
but the two can Romayanka back in earlier streams, a
couple of years ago. But I do feel a lot
of bitterness about these processes happening in Ukraine, and that
overwhelms my personal satisfaction because on the global scale, Ukraine

(20:42):
will definitely suffer. So unfortunately, mostly I'm feeling sadness, sadly
sadly sadness. Right who instead of Zelenski? Do you think
such amazing people like professor of from Revolve is saying
that it's going to be the solutionary or Buddana for

(21:04):
Baletski and you're looking at these figures and thinking, yeah,
these are the people. Okay, let's talk through that. Bilski's
solution in budanav are not good candidates for the United States.
Trump will likely be against them because they are registered

(21:26):
as the Party of War and since the vector is
going towards peace resolution, they are not the best instrument.
Solutionary could be affirmed by Britain because they have a
bigger influence on him, and now states in Britain are
discussing that. As for Europe, one needs to understand one thing.

(21:48):
Nobody in Europe will be paying money for neither national
takeover or the Party of War, even if Europeans want
Ukraine to hold Russia. So it does and expand still
not on the terms of the power of military because
that goes against the European laws and their understanding of

(22:10):
what political process is. So our military trifect of names
you mentioned will probably be very disillusioned and dissatisfied with
the probability of I give it ninety five percent. Of
course there's a chance that five percent that something will
happen there. But Ukraine is not self sufficient, neither militarily

(22:31):
nor monetary. All that is propped out by the West,
United States and Britain. So they will be the ones
determining the real configuration of a new government, whether we want,
whoever gives money will be determining that configuration. They were
supporting the Danski regime, they're dismantling it. They'll be the
ones supporting the new regime. I think that the center

(22:53):
of legitimization and the future transfer of power will be Parliament,
some option of Turchin number two. Whether it will be
Rahaimed Turchin, Julitymashenka Razumkov, that's a technical question. Most likely
the power center will move to Parliament because everybody needs legitimacy.

(23:16):
Americans need Ukraine to have legitimate figure that is acknowledged
by Russia. Europeans and breeds need a person whom they
can present to their taxpayers, to their media why as
the reason why they're still supporting Ukraine and Ukrainian enforcement

(23:37):
ministers need somebody whom they consider legitimate, whose orders are
considered legitimate. And what is a Ukrainian minister of one
of these enforcement agencies. He only will execute the order
that is printed, signed, has twenty or sixty signatures and
stamps on it, because they all look with add at

(24:00):
European courts and having good documentation is paramount for them
that they can show it and say, listen, it was
not me, I was ordered that. These are the names
who ordered that for me to do so. Power agencies
are the ones who would be also rooting for legitimization. Look,

(24:20):
neither Zeleski, nor Solutionary nor Budana have commented on the
Vindish scandal, even though even the grandma's near your high
rise have probably had a political opinion. Now what does
it tell us? It tells us about their political ambitions,
and what they're saying is that yes, we're military people.

(24:42):
Here is the bank number to support our troops. But
in reality, to keep mum about the biggest political scandal
is to declare your political ambitions if you're interested about
political ambitions. We already know that Solutionary has it and
their mom because they have plans, They are playing their games.

(25:05):
They understand who is removing Zelenski, and they don't want
to be chained to political corps of Zelenski. They don't
want to take a position to support Zelenski under any circumstances,
and they also don't want to comment against it due

(25:27):
to a simple reason that they will then quarrel that
risks them quarreling with the future developments with those people
who likely will be giving money to them for their
campaigns and their activities or their participation in certain processes.

(25:47):
So that means they are very well worsed in politics,
and they made good conclusions that if Zelenski is removed,
then they can easily be remembered by Europeans of a
lot of other things that these military people did during war.

(26:09):
Since twenty fourteen, Bilitsky has some controversial pages. Budanov also
has a lot of gray areas. Just to remember the purchasing
of artillery shows through military intel when according to some

(26:31):
European data, from four hundred million to one point two
billion have just vanished into somebody's pocket. And of course
Zolutiony prosecutors in Germany suspect him to be the one
who organized the North Stream two explosion. So everybody is

(26:51):
on the hook. Yes, that's how it is done. That's
how it is done. Alexander in big politics, so they
can be accused in different things, and they're five minutes
away from being international criminals, so they understand everything just fine.
And as people with political ambitions, they are rather manageable

(27:13):
via their criminal elements in their past or what can
be considered as criminal, and of course with money. So
the pictures where brave military and write the tanks to
arrest Zanski's government in Kiev. Forget about that. Even if
one idiot would be decisive to do that, that would

(27:35):
not exist longer than a couple of weeks because the
West will simply turn off the spicett with money and
that regime will not survive. Yeah, some people say his
son of a bitch, but his our son of a bitch.
That was during the times of Cold War. That tactic
is not working now. Europeans will not be giving money
to illegitimate government and already have problems. Look at Urban,

(28:01):
look at FISO. Yeah, that's exactly giving money to that
is like giving alcohol to alcoholic So perspectives of a
very managed process are high. That which likely will be

(28:22):
resolved through parliament, which is good. That means unavoidable elections.
If it will go through parliament, it will have to
our organize elections under pressure of the West. A lex say,
I'm not going to google that during the stream, but

(28:43):
remember material in Politico that shocked everybody. I think you
still were with the office in those days. I may
be wrong, but remember when the materials were released that
were saying that, guys, if Zelenski gets killed because where
it were right, then you will have a military junta

(29:04):
running the whole thing, markstefan Chuk, Nothing will change, military
will continue running the country. There will be no shakedowns
or no big changes. Why do you think that if
now through parliament they organize a government of national unity,
replaced the figure or maybe leave Zelensky but as limp

(29:25):
duck and take a lot of power from him and
will have some chancellor. Why do you think elections will occur. Listen,
there will be no military cabinet because all that military
cabinet is on mindig's recordings and other recordings that exist.

(29:46):
So that is the group that has been dismantled. Zelensky
as a figure for now is untouchable, while that quarrel
is happening around him because Lensky will be fighting to
the end and he's incapable to negotiate. Everybody knows that,
so they're not touching him till they're ready to completely

(30:07):
remove him rapidly. And Budanov commenting on the crisis and
scandal with energy, he affirmed that NABU and other investigative
organs made the right decisions and the investigation was good,
and that, by the way, confirms that. Yeah, the butcher
is also a politician. So there are some media really

(30:32):
talking about Zelensky, that he's a fighter for freedom, that
he's a martyr for Ukrainian freedom. Sure they're talking about that. Meantime,
we have DBR investigating corruptions in the National Arctic Scientific Center.
Now let's see who leads it. This nice looking fellow,

(30:53):
the fighter from dr who was always strict and well principled, right,
Dicky that's the guy exactly. So that story, to say
the least, is a wide story, and military office is

(31:14):
being removed is the one being extricated surgically. So okay,
let's probably conclude with that uplifting And actually I thought
it would be uplifting. But yeah, there's a lot of
regret about the situation because it definitely will make life
in situation in Ukraine wars for a while. Alex say,

(31:38):
what if we look at the front, how that scandal,
how all that motion commotion does effect that stage of
war and what is happening on the front line. Is
there direct correlation and if it is, then what is it? Well,
first of all, the most obvious thought is that this

(32:00):
brings down the morale of troops on the ground. However,
morale on the front is about very different things. The
fighter on the front is more concerned with whether there
is uav above him, whether they have enough AMMO and shells,
who left their dislocation, if anybody have fled their positions,

(32:22):
easy getting paid on time, So that is what they're
concerned about. The real fighters are actually more concerned with
the fact that they're sitting there in the trenches without
any relief that are being attacked by fpvs twenty times
a day that there is no relief rotation. Front has

(32:42):
its own specific problems and they do not directly correlate
with what's happening in power. Front has very concrete needs
a vehicle, a drone replacement rotation option. So Front has
its own issues that develop sort of in parallel with
what's happening up above. But given these things are definitely

(33:06):
happening with political leadership of Ukraine, it will exacerbate each other.
So problems on the front will actually make situation more
dire for the leadership as well. So right now the
Front is being pressed by Russians significantly day by day,

(33:29):
and we reveal how much corruption is actually going on
in the military complex of Ukraine. So this is the
next scandal that is already on the horizon. I don't
think the front will collapse because of political news or
anti corruption investigations. The front will be crumbling for other
much more objective reasons like lack of personnel and firepower.

(33:53):
So all these people in the political leadership, if they
want to really hold the front, they need to make
harsh decisions. They need to lower the conscription age and
on the other hand, they cannot afford to do that
because that will break their legitimacy with the society, So

(34:16):
they will probably do nothing, and that will lead the
situation on the front to another crisis, which will of
course be presented as an issue to zansk A government
in the near term. All right, alex say, I understand.
But sometimes through a catastrophe, through a crisis, we get

(34:36):
some cleansing, right, we get some revival. So maybe Letterusians
break through and then as they approach Nepro and Zaporogia
may be used that as an excuse to lower the
mobilization age. That would not quite work because there is
a significant scandal with the military industrial complex, because society

(34:59):
will be asking questions, why have you been stealing so much?
Maybe that's why the front is collapsing, and not because
we don't have enough people. So this is a more
complex situation. This is the reason for panic in Zelenski's office,
that that's the reason why they're fleeing, because there is
no easy decision, easy solution out of it. I did

(35:21):
mention Guleepolia, Alexei. I'm looking at that map and I
want to go down to specific things. Today A rather
well known Russian philosopher Dugan is writing that it is
time now on the borders of on the front near Guleepolia,

(35:42):
for Ukrainians, it's time to think whether they want to
turn on the West, because the West is basically abandoning Ukraine.
What do you think about Dugen's statement, Well, Alexander, Russians
have made too many mistakes. The details of what they're
doing with our prisoners, military prisoners, and what they do

(36:05):
at the occupied territories that just shocks people. This is
the most principal mistake they made. They could have been
forgiven the missile strikes and okay UAVs and missiles. They
may miss the intended targets, but in every significant regional center,

(36:30):
rapes of women by Russian soldiers, four hundred and sixty
dead bodies left in his Zum, all these witnesses and
evidence that we have discovered when we liberated occupied territories,
this is what precludes Ukraine from joining Russian Federation. That's
one second. The western vector is not depleted. Theoretically, in

(36:56):
some light we can imagine that some years later Ukraine
might produce a bill together with Russia to the west.
But for that Ukraine needs to completely and totally disavow
the West, and this just get upset with everything the
West has done, and they need to be enamored by Russia.

(37:18):
But Russia had tortured and killed too much, and the
West is still somewhat friendly and somewhat caring and helpful
to a lesser degree that we would want to. But
still they're doing that, and they're trying to remove our
corruption ears in Ukraine, and that's a big plus for
the West. Let's look at those who are running the

(37:41):
occupied territories. Usually it's people who are not too impressive
for whoever locals are remaining in the city or township.
But Russians would still appoint somebody and put them by
the force of their bayonets on the and protect them

(38:01):
from any argument. So these people, these figures, are not
too liked by locals. Meantime, the West removes corruptioneers from
Zedensky's government or tries to wait, who, I don't think
people really think like this, Well, what do you mean, Alexander?

(38:23):
In Russia, if they put somebody in jail, they actually
do put somebody in jail. They got a bunch of
generals and corruptionears in their own jails. And I'm not
defending Russia, but I'm just saying that Russian jailing is
a real jailing. If we take corruption story here in Ukraine,
Vintage was allowed to run and his citizenship was revoked

(38:43):
by secret order, so he would not be given back.
That's a big difference, Alexander. Look, that's not how people think.
I'm telling you how Ukrainian people prevalently think. And Russi,
for example, put an occupational mayor of her son, the

(39:04):
fellow who built torture chambers for sixteen year olds in
the township, and we discovered that when we kick them out,
so people know, if Russians come again, that story will
likely repeat. That's not attractive. That's a principal mistake by Russia,
which Dugan continued to not notice. And the West, even

(39:26):
on the level of our president, supported by the West,
is still trying to fight corruptions, sometimes with smoke and mirrors,
but they still have it as one of the items
on the agenda, and sooner or later we will get them. Maybe.
So if today we say that in Russia, the second
in command in the Ministry of Defense in Russia was

(39:46):
put in jail, nobody knows him. In Ukraine, nobody cares.
But here even attempt to investigate or things that force
them to leave the country. That actually is perceived often
as good as a plus. Russia, to their detriment, when
they occupy territories, they put wrong managers. This is somewhat

(40:12):
of a feature of Russia back from the times of
Alexander Nevsky when he was placed in power by the
Mongol hordes, because he was the weakest of thenasz of
the rulers in the territories. But that's why they picked him,
Because he is the weakest, it's easy to manage him.

(40:35):
For the locals, such figures look like a trader and
like the weakest candidate could be, and they doesn't look appealing.
So that is the ongoing mistake that Russia continues to
make on the occupied territories that creates a significant repulsion
towards the vector of possible unity with Russia. This is

(40:59):
their colossal mistake in my view. If they treated prisoners
of war respect with respect, and don't have to do
that for everybody, but just for Ukrainians, perhaps just for
the ones who were captured, or for their own pro
Ukrainian elements if they treated them like humans, the chances

(41:22):
to turn the minds and hearts of Ukrainians in favor
of Russia would have been much higher. But they've done
such a tremendous amount of stupid mistakes that I don't
foresee that happening easily. But on the West, they actually
have a calculation in their estimations that there will be

(41:46):
a growth of anti West sentiment in Ukraine, that the
West did not support them enough, did not allow them
to win, that the West supported corrupt government that was
stealing money, and they also pushed them to treacherous be
So so there'll be that sentiment, we'll see that rising,
and Ukraine as the overall national consciousness, will have to

(42:09):
go through a difficult process. The waves of breaking picture
of the world will be damaging the worldview of each
Ukrainian and they'll be suspicious and very confused about their neighbors,
about the West. And it very much depends upon how

(42:30):
smart will be the people who'll be running our country
during that transition period. How smart will they be to
put reasonable slogans and follow with reasonable steps to address
large layers of society. You know, Alex, say what I'm
concerned about is that we have not reached that black

(42:51):
line of hell where people would be happy to see
some order. I think that is the reason why people
are not staying in the townships where the war is coming.
And one can say that those people who stay in

(43:14):
the towns that are to be occupied by Russians, they
probably want more order. No, no, no, Alexander, I think
people do not think in these categories. When they live
in a township that is being demolished by artillery and missiles,
that perhaps will be an order, But before that that

(43:34):
order will destroy and burn everything down in this city,
together with citizens. So that's why our citizens are still running.
And yes they're being accused of being traitors too. When
they leave and leave early. We can say that, yes,
the certain fraction or actually majority of our citizens who left,

(43:57):
who stayed in the occupied territories, they get some samples,
some semblance of order, they get pensions, they get some administration,
and in some cases they're saying that it is actually
more orderly than in Ukraine. But what is scary is
a different question. What happens if I violate disorder because

(44:18):
Mother Russia treats the violators with iron gloves, and you
completely need to be a citizen who doesn't care about
any politics to survive an occupation. Ukrainians are not like that.
Ukrainians want to express their opinion, they want to express
their dissatisfaction with things, So Russian order doesn't really fit

(44:41):
Ukrainian mentality. Plus, there was a lot of invested in
the legend about the West joining europe freedoms and Alexey
you were talking about Ukrainians hold out Drafting Commission to
exist as the factor, as the entity. Well that exists

(45:01):
because you know, Ukrainians were told that if we do
not have our own drafting commission, you will eventually be
drafted by Russian Drafting Commission and you will be fighting
on the front with Poland, and you can actually buy
yourself out from the Ukrainian drafting force, and you probably
will not be able to do that from the Russian
Drafting Commission when it comes, which the citizens have occupied.

(45:23):
The Nyet's already well aware of. So there's a lot
of vectors joining here and fighting in different directions. But
a citizen of Ukraine can still flee to the West,
at least women, elderly children, and they will be able
to integrate and live their lives in Europe. Ukraine is

(45:45):
not needed for many people to survive for millions and
Ukraine that Zeensky is building, they do not want that.
In that fashion, they are saying that, well, we'd rather
stay in the West, but why do they need Russia?
Becoming Russia is a much more difficult transition than finding

(46:07):
for your chance to life and Spain and Portugal. In France,
it's definitely a no brainer choosing between the occupied territories
and Europe. Regardless how much order is there versus the
opportunities in Europe, it always fails. So there is there

(46:37):
is a sentiment in regards to the West, why wait
for Ukraine to join NATO and while we can pack
our bags and go and join themselves ourselves right now
and then hope that maybe there'll be peace, the borders
will be open and maybe we can come back, or
the ones who could not move earlier, maybe the borders
will be open as part of EU integration and they'll

(46:57):
be able to leave. Seventy percent of population have a
sentiment to leave the country right now. So that's a
significant tissue. With all the rot of the Second Ukrainian
Republic that we observe right now on the level of
collective understanding of what is Russian power, of what is

(47:18):
Putin's power, Putin's power is looking pretty much like a demon.
So going under Russia and that versus running to Europe.
Everybody will choose running to Europe because it looks like
a warm place. Whether the Third Republic will become a
warm place in Ukraine and whether it will be survivable

(47:40):
also on the occupied territories, that's still a huge question
and it'll take a lot of years to figure out
what happens, and very effy. We don't know whether it
will succeed, what Russia will do, what Ukraine will do. Meantime,
we have a simple option of getting occupied, or fighting
and living in the country at war, or running to Europe. Well, yeah,

(48:04):
that's why Merrit says, ringing the bells, saying appealing to Zelensky, hey,
take your young guys back to Ukraine. Ukraine needs them right.
EU now understands that they need Ukraine to be fight
worthy to stand withstand the Russian attack, even if there'll
be peace agreement signed tomorrow. They want Ukraine to be

(48:25):
fight worthy. By the way, notice that Mertz is not
talking about women and children, right right end of the
first part,

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