War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1369: Geneva Results for Zelensky. Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Hello, dear friends, guests and subscribers of my channel and
of course Alexis channel as well. We are streaming live.
It is nine pm in Kiev, ten pm in Moscow,
and glad to see you. With you with us, Alexey.
We will of course talk about Geneva, and I'm starting

(00:24):
to estimate the time in Geneva, but I don't think
they're in my time zone. I think Geneva actually overwhelmed
a lot of expectations, although it was organized somewhat haphazardly,
and we will talk about the echoes of this meeting
in different aspects today. The format of our stream, however,
is unchangeable, so pay attention first please to the QR

(00:48):
codes at the bottom. That's where you can ask questions
that we will address at the end of the stream,
and you can leave a question in advance so we
can address it in the next segment, of course, to
make sure our communication is more entertaining. Here is the
usual question for our listeners. It sounds like this, if

(01:12):
we are to complete conclude this war hypothetically today like
right now and the war and resistance and everything, ay,
and then please conclude the sentence, will leave Ukraine, will
return to Ukraine, will stay in place and will be happy,

(01:38):
or will stay in place and will be very upset
and will be mourning the fallen or the results. Alex say,
how will you answer this question? I would probably stay
first in the place where I am right now and
observe what will happen after and what be your mood

(02:00):
like In this case, I'll be both happy and sad,
glad that the war is over, and said that so
many people have perished. All right, friends, do not forget
to vote. It's very curious for us to see what
is your choice? And perhaps let's start with the main question.
Ukrainians are now separated, split asking each other questions whether

(02:24):
they support or not support Trump's plan, and it's somewhat
a hot bun right now in the media. And we
do have an interesting point approaching the stream that out
of twenty eight original points, we have only nineteen left,
and message from presidential office comes saying that, look, we

(02:50):
diminish the number of points. No, there will not be
a blanket amnition amnesty. They'll be, of course, attempts to
help people who have suffered and those who are responsible.
They will have to somewhat pay for that. So what

(03:11):
do you think about that? What do you think about
this meeting? Do you think that work to perhaps interrupt
the process succeeded? How you have made interruption of what
our interruption? That Ukraine was trying to break the agreement
and doing their best to make it not happen, We're
not dijustable for Russia. Listen, the saddest part about this

(03:37):
event is the pen that the matter broke while signing it.
And together with the broken pen, we are observing the
broken expectations that the war would be over soon, that
put In would somewhere. Also, another thing that's not happening

(03:59):
is that put In will somehow accept Ukrainian favoring plan,
and of course the point that this war will likely
not conclude quickly. In the nearest term, we probably will
expect Trump to implement sanctions against Putin. That is his model,
and his sanctions and his push in Russia will be

(04:20):
stronger and sterner than on Ukraine, and then they'll be
rolled out somewhat agreed upon plan by both sides. Now
he understands, I think rather well, whom is he dealing
with in both Ukraine and in Russia. That's why he's
using some arguments to convince both sides. That's why in
Ukraine he's using Nabu service to attack corruption and on

(04:42):
Russian side they are using Americans are using extra pressure
with sections, and there'll be some certain track that will
be developed in my view, that the process will follow
to come to some agreement. This track will not automatically
include all the points of this agreement. There'll be some
motions back and forth. The likely will be more exchange

(05:05):
of everybody for everybody. There might be a Christmas or
a New Year peace treaty or at least stop stoppage
of this war for the holidays. And in some fashion
this process will continue moving forward with communication and pushbacks

(05:26):
from both sides. There will be, of course progress. As
for finishing of this war, the actual date when it
will happen, I'm not too optimistic, and let me not
be wrong. It would not give you a date right now.
And by the way, here is the picture of a
broken pen by a meta. So we might want to

(05:51):
move to a different level of discussion about season pin
and Trump and other things, but I cannot just miss
this photo. This view. Both the way you remark and
the Meroov were looking after this meeting, they were both
looking very guilty and very dissatisfied. And now there's also
that picture of this broken pant surfacing. Well, first of all, Alexander,

(06:15):
there was a news that Amerav is the next figure
of Nabu anti corruption work. Then evil tongues are saying
that Amerav actually did go to the United States for
a day and a half between living Ukraine and going
to Stambul, and I understand that all these thirty six

(06:36):
hours he was probably very busy giving data to FBI.
So the question is why would he break a pen
because he probably is cooperating with the prosecution already, and
you need to legalize his statements to FBI, so he
needs to sign certain things. Otherwise it's just a conversation,

(07:02):
so he should have been at peace. He should have
probably agreed to everything with FBI. So I don't know
what exactly was the reason for him to break the pen.
Perhaps something surface that he did not expect to surface.
There are some rumors that there was a scandal during

(07:23):
the conversation during the negotiations Instanbul. What's the subject of
a scandal? I understand the articles, Well, how do you
scandal with those who give you eighty five percent of
your money and weapons. You're incorrigible, you're dirty, rotten scoundrels,
and then they do what they tell you. Well, okay,

(07:44):
then we don't give you any money or any more
weapons from now on? Is that the way to scandal?
So I'm not exactly sure why did he break the spin?
There are other publications, alexi now both target all of them,
targeting that Znansky probably shouldn't be visiting Washington and the
White House and indicating that the plan to sign this

(08:07):
agreement in the presence of Trump is somewhat postponed and
in Geneva never mentions that there'll be more discussions at
the meetings between Trump and Zelanski. What other results are
the waiting? What is not enough from Geneva? Why did
they go and what did they achieve? We should face
the facts, Alexander, that we exactly don't know what they

(08:29):
achieved in Geneva. We only are aware of what the
press is publishing. How much is it in agreement with
actually what happened what we hear from the press. Probably
to some degree, it's realistic, it's true. But will everything
change based on this meeting? No, it's the same thing
as Stambul in twenty second in March of twenty second,

(08:50):
same questions, territorial question, proportion of armed forces, nothing changes,
and the logic of our struggle with Russia is the same,
which remains the same. So you can call it Stambul,
you can call it Geneva. This will all go back
and gravitate back to Stambul. As I see, Putin needs
a symbolic victory in Stanbul because one of the main,

(09:13):
if not the main argument of the post war Russia
that he would need for both internally and for external consumption.
He would be highlighting saying that, look, everything could have
been concluded back in twenty twenty two, but Ukraine and
the West have chosen to continue fighting. So all the
victims and all the damage and destruction since March of

(09:37):
twenty two is totally upon them now. In order for
Stambul meeting to happen, both sides will have to go
over certain concessions, and I'm sure there are bluffs on
both sides are already fighting. Russian side is already saying
that Ukraine will soon crack apart. Ukraine is already saying

(09:58):
that and will state even more that Russia will fall
apart as well if they continue fighting economically, and to
some degree both sides are true. Both sides are correct
to the degree that they are wrong, nobody is truly aware.
And I wrote an interesting post today when Washington Post
published that Trump is not aware of what Ukraine and

(10:21):
Russia have agreed upon in Geneva, that Trump is not
aware of all the entirety of these articles. I noted that,
don't worry, nobody really knows the contents of these articles.
So this is somewhat reminiscent of a dance with some

(10:42):
unexpected and awkward moves. And this is how this event
is being reviewed in the international media. The pen was broken,
they have almost squirreled, so what is it? Yeah? Have
they brought flowers? Have they not brought What kind of
wicked comedy is that they're just feeding people with zero results?

(11:07):
The media is inventing. But I'm aware for sure that
it will end up in Stamboul with some minor details,
but essentially it will end in the same core of
agreement that we have agreed upon back in twenty two.
So I think i'lex say one can pay attention to
the speed of Trump's push towards negotiations towards the resolution

(11:33):
of this conflict. There is a Ministry of War in
the United States who is visiting in person. Axios actually
published interesting materials about this planet. So I have a
question in this regard why United States. Everybody is screaming

(11:54):
to them, Russia, Europe, Ukraine. They're screaming in the United States,
don't push your horses, hold your horses. And the United
States continue pushing and pressing, and many people are upset
because they think that this may cause a less favorable
position for Ukraine. Trump has two main arguments. First is

(12:17):
midterm elections to Congress, especially given that in New York
the Republicans suffered a significant ideological failure with Mamdani election. Second,
they have certain positions with China and they need to
exchange things with China on the Middle East. So this

(12:39):
is part of a bigger picture that he wants to achieve.
Events in Ukraine as well. And why did the so
called vicious American delegation visit Ukraine. It was divided into
two parts. The first one was smiling and was showing
maps in charts, and I don't know who showed it

(13:02):
to them, but Znansky previously was feeding the United States
with the data that Russians will start to retreat just
the day after tomorrow. Everything is so horrible on the front,
and everything is so gloomy that today or tomorrow will
go into counter offensive and will kick Russians out of
Ukraine as Napoleon back in the day. And the first

(13:22):
part of American delegation was actually showing that this is
not exactly true. They brought numbers, cards and charts. The
second part was more interesting. They said, Oh, Vladimir, it's
somewhat uncomfortable. The weapons that we supplied to you is
now being discovered in Africa, or is being discovered in

(13:45):
Hesbalah possession, or in discovered with drug cartels of Central
and South America. How come? How did that happen? So
all that made Theski and his team to change their position,
be more shy and perhaps break the pan. So about

(14:08):
the weapons, there was a huge scandal with Moldova, with
Romanians and Moldovans that the arms were shipped in rather
significant quantities. And again this is all on the level
of rumors, because the subject is being forcefully attempted to

(14:30):
be raised from the media on the border of Romanian Moldova,
A big truck load was discovered that was supposedly heading
towards Israel with anti tank missiles, eighteen account eight grenade launchers, cornets,
and a bunch of other things. So significant assortment of Russians,

(14:51):
Russian arms so supposedly going through Moldova's something should have
happened in a year. There should have been another eleventh
of September that would have shuffled the cards. But apparently
now they're trying to raise this event from ever occurring.
You as the intelligence officer, what can you say about

(15:12):
these versions and data that we're getting about this shipment?
Is it coincidence? I don't think so. I don't think
Thanks so, Alexander, right, I would think why would Ukraine
be involved in this picture? In Romanian border somewhat shipped

(15:33):
from Moldova. Russian arms are being sent somewhere towards Israel.
Why would that upset the Ukrainian picture. Let's count the
number of countries bordering with Moldova. There are two, Romania
and Ukraine. So one version is that Maldova somehow shipped

(15:54):
these weapons to Romania and then sorry the other way there.
Whenya shipped them to Maldover and then from Moldova to
Romanian they were caught or Ukraine supplied these weapons. So
if Ukrainians are somehow perhaps right, if Russia shaped these weapons,

(16:15):
maybe they are conducting some special operational planning to organize
another September in Europe or October like event in Europe,
and they somehow have smuggled it through Ukraine. So one
can start asking questions, why would Russia do that, and
how would they do that, and why Ukraine did not
catch them? Now, in order to develop an event in Europe,

(16:40):
why would you send it through Romanian and Moldovan wader.
It should not have arrived to Romanian port. It should
have traveled to some Germany or some other place. So
Russian trace is not really it's hard to glue it,
to pin it to the strategy. Well, it's a very
dangerous moment now for provocation of any kind. I think, Alexander,

(17:03):
you think this is a Russian provocation? No, I think
something has to happen that everybody would point fingers at
Russia and would say that listen, no negotiations, no plans,
get out to hell with you in your house, no, no,
everything Alexandra is more simple, I think, and it probably

(17:25):
that ends in that second part of the conversation of
American delegation with our highest person in Ukraine, that Ukrainian
arms are going somewhere or American supplied arms are going
somewhere from Ukraine. Okay, Like I say, I think everybody

(17:45):
is somewhat fed up with this topic, but we still
need to talk about them in this stream, and I
want to discuss the continuation of the story. Everybody read
those twenty eight points of this plan. Now they're magically
dwindled down to nineteen. We're not reading nineteen. We don't
know which one of them survived to that shorter edition.

(18:05):
And we only believe Keslitz and the Ukraine inside who
are saying that we have altered the articles. But nobody
knows nothing. So the publications that we see, they're somewhat
different European publications. And here's to see the difference. This
is the comparative table that you can already find online.

(18:30):
We can discuss it in pieces. So territories what was
in the plan that controlled by Ukraine armies part of
Downbass will get a status of neutral demlitarized territory. Of
Russia and borderline in Hirzon and the Parogi districts will
go on the front line. Reported rumored new version is

(18:53):
that Ukraine refuses to bring military lost territory territories the
lost during this war in the military fashion, and territorial
matters will be resolved by the current frontline. The numbers
of Ukraine armed forces initial was six hundred thousand or
less current not more than eight hundred thousand. Native membership

(19:15):
for Ukraine. Original was refusal of Ukraine to not be
in this part of alliance. Altered version this will depend
upon the consensus of NATO members which is not in existence.
The promise of Russia to not intrude in the neighbor
countries and NATO to expand the article existed, it doesn't

(19:36):
exist in the supposedly nineteen version. Nineteen article version and
the last item was that all negotiations will be done
through the United States, and in the altered version the
mension of the United States is removed. Okay, Alexander, So
the mention of this articles in this fashion, it causes

(19:59):
me to to somewhat starter. In the geopolitical fashion, Why
is that you cannot set binding rules for both sides.
If you cannot realize a specific kind of pressure for
not executing these articles. Okay, United States may exert certain pressure,

(20:23):
but what about EU? How EU will enforce these articles?
Because if you look at this modified vector, you can
tell that it diminishes the role of the United States
and increases the role of Europe and basically saying that
nobody will dictate us the change in the founding documents
for EU such as NATO Alliance and the United States

(20:45):
and the Trump are eager to take certain responsibilities on themselves.
So it's understandable Europeans are trying to defend their zone
of influence and defend the way they create world order
in Europe. They don't want that to shake, that don't
want it to change. Their position is don't get in America,

(21:05):
get out. We don't want you to such degree as
you want to. And how they're going to help support
that because they don't have resources that the United States
have And let's continue. There's more changes in the stable.
So originally Russia was supposed to be returned to the
world economy. In the altered version, it'll take time, it'll

(21:26):
take stages, and it will not be immediate. So there
are no exact time frame. Now. There was also an
article about one hundred billion dollars worth of Russian money
that were arrested in the West, that they'll be reinvested
to rebuild Ukraine under governance of the United States. The
rest will be invested in the America Russian investment instruments.

(21:49):
In the altered version, Ukraine is getting compensation from Russian
assets that will be under arrest until complete retribution is
paid to Ukraine. Under a couple more items that originally
they were saying that American Russian group will be created
to discuss safety questions and what turned into that Ukraine
and the you will participate in this discussion. And there

(22:12):
was also a term that if Ukraine will invade Russia
or shoot a missile at Moscow in Saint Petersburg, the
agreement will be annulled. This article was shrunk to the
smaller version, but essentially, if Ukraine does any provocation, they
are terms of this peace agreement or an out. And
also they changed the duration that initially it was one
hundred day plan and now the nineteenth article version supposedly

(22:37):
promising a different duration which will correspond with effort of
both sides to resolve it. So yeah, one of the
main differences in this thing is the way that money
are spent, and original offer was that money would be
transferred to Ukraine only partially out of these three hundred billion.

(22:58):
Europeans do not want to give these more needy to
Americans for investments and payments and managing Europe says that
we have arrested these assets and we will not allow
United States to now take ownership and take possession of this.
And then, of course another point is that yes, we

(23:19):
are for democracy, so we don't know the situation how
it will unfold in Ukraine. And if the elections were
supposed to be conducted in the original plan within one
hundred days, the edited version now supposes that elections will
be conducted as soon as possible, but without stating a

(23:41):
certain number of days. So EU is holding a somewhat
conservative position to make sure that they can protect the
founding pillars of EU and do not have to violate
them due to some haphazard action and any attempt to
change these pillars. It causes their surprise, saying that listen,

(24:03):
why you trying to kick the pillars from ourselves? Because
this is the founding documents or founding elements of EU.
The position is understandable. The problem is that they have
nothing to interfere or enforce these points with these articles.
With You're right, they will not go to fight for anything.

(24:23):
They have about American parts in their arms and about
sixty percent of what the manufacturers, so they cannot independently
use them if the United States is in disagreement, and
America did mention that if you guys are implementing nineteenth
package of sanctions against your enemy, that means that they

(24:45):
probably don't work. And you can also understand that Ukrainian
position is very stubborn. We understand that we have brigade
officers and brigade generals who are responsible for the morale
of the army. Of course, those women who root for

(25:06):
Zelenski and all those bloggers in the Prosenansky sphere who've
been promoting that position, and they cannot suddenly change it.
With the very brief exceptions of those who try to
write the truth. So those people who do not really
participate in war, those who are not on the front line,
those who are not in the houses that are being demolished,

(25:28):
those are actually taking a very stubborn position. So same
as Europeans who are saying, listen, we're taking a very
reserved position. We're not going to surrender. We're going to
stand and fight it for our rights as you and
for future of Ukraine. So something like you were there

(25:49):
crawling on your knees in the trenches. Meantime, we will
honestly and boldly standing far away from the front and
defending our freedoms. And if you suggest them, hey, why
don't you go to the trench, they look at you
as you're mad. So, Alexei, you're using such a formulation
in our discussions as a central signal. Today again online

(26:12):
into parliamentary Crimea platform was being discussed and people are
bringing the statement made by Stephanchuk with this that look,
the war will be over when Ukraine will bring Crimea back.
That was a statement made by the speaker of Ukrainian
Congress Rada Stefan chuck So, underlining that Ukraine will not

(26:37):
sign anything without Ukrainian participation. We will decide the volume,
the size of our army and our native participation. And
he said that, yeah, we will conclude the war only
when we get the Crimea back. Oh I understand that
was the statement that made a matter of break his pen,

(26:59):
because that's like the worst statement you can make to
add to this position. Unbending position is the cheapest position
you can take. It doesn't involve any calculus, any forecasting,
any thinking. You can take the stubborn position and just
stand there as that superhero, unwavering and unshaken. The or

(27:22):
any of that is that it's a very cheap politics
such an unwavering position. Look, when Soviet Union was regulating
the Afghanistan, who were in Geneva with Gorbachev, they were
the ones who never agreed to any negotiations. But their
refusal to negotiate was based on the circles in the

(27:45):
West who were making money on the West supplying Mojahideen.
And this was the group that figured out how to
be participants in this pipeline who were making money war.
And we do have a group in United in Ukraine
who's also making money on war. The arguments that you

(28:08):
hear they're not filled with anything. And the question they're
most afraid of is Okay, what do you suggest instead?
Because their suggestion would be to fight to the last Ukrainian.
How can answer this statement when you have maybe twenty
Ukrainian fighters fighting on the ten kilometers of the front.

(28:31):
You can go ask those fighters whether they want peace
or not. I want to say that seventy five percent
of this unwavering posturing stands, you know, on what those
people usually wake up in Kiev, in Toronto, or somewhere
else in the states, in the world, in Europe. They
look at the deep state map and they're saying that, ooh,

(28:52):
if Russia is not there, we can be a waivering.
The line is still there, the front is still there.
And when you tell him, hey, why don't you join
this front to hold it, they get very upset because
it's not my business. My business is to be unwavering. Now,
if one day, when the war will be changing, they

(29:16):
will see red diamonds starting to move closer to Kiev,
they I want to say that those eighty five percent
of those unwavering supporters will start running towards the peace
deal as fast as they can and will probably bring
the keys to the peace treated to Russia with their

(29:39):
pants down and escort because all these and wavering group
is strong and loud, because the front is holding, because
somebody else is fighting for them, because it's still too
far to Kiev, to Viv to Vinydzen. When the soldier
is sitting in the trench and saying that, you know what,

(30:01):
I'd rather die than let Russians in that, I can respect. That,
I can understand and deeply respect. Problem is, I don't
know a single officer or soldier like that, but I
know a lot of servicemen who observe those fleeing the front.
Tens of thousands of people who abandon their positions and

(30:23):
nothing happens to them, who are dumbfounded by that bossification
effort and the recruitment and the quality of people that
are being brought to them as replenishment. Eighty five percent
of them will flee even before they get to the front,
and twelve percent will surrender the moment they see the enemy. Well,

(30:45):
this is being popularized by a lot of Prosnanski patriots,
like you are sitting at home, drinking, doing nothing, and
here you are given a mission to fight for your
country and maybe die for your country. And this is
noble here, right, Alexandria, and I want to continue here
that the third thing is that the officers in the

(31:05):
front see that these unwavering people do not give a
chance for the military to survive, to remain alive without
even trying to fight themselves. So they understand. Our officers
and soldiers understand that these unwavering patriots are basically holding

(31:26):
them costage. And they're looking at that with I'm picking
words here with some surprise. Unwavering is amazing when it
comes from the line of people standing in the drafting commission,
that I can understand those people who are standing there
to fight for the country and saying that I think
Russians should not be taking our land. I will go

(31:48):
and prove with my blood and sweat, I will never surrender.
You have to respect this person. This person goes into
eternity from here. But the ones who are waking up
checking Deep State man having their coffees and then laughing
at funny Russian army that does nothing, that still cannot move,
that they have not moved in over a year. And yeah, no,

(32:10):
of course we should not surrender. We never should surrender
because the border doesn't move, the front border doesn't move,
so we keep killing those Russians and it's only the
weaklings who will surrender. And would quote some Don curleone
statement from the popular movies I would love to see

(32:31):
those people in a trench and observe their unwavering position
in the trench on the front line. I don't think
you ever will, Le say, right, that's exactly my point,
that these people will be as a wavering for as
long as somebody is fighting for them in the front.
And they don't even present their position in donations much. Yeah,

(32:53):
you know, Ale say thanks to Elon Musk with deep,
deep gratitude, who opened in the accounts in his ex
who is not just where they're territorially positioned, but who
is using which service on their phone? And they see

(33:15):
that put the luck loaded X from some Russian software market,
and all these patriots that he talked about, they're left
and right, god knows where in Canada, in Europe, and
they continue fighting on that information front. Yeah, many people

(33:37):
call this network after masks the march today, not X,
but who so? And I want to send a note
here that Michael put the luck to support him, that
he is a brave intelligence officer because when he was registering,

(34:00):
you had to connect through certain Russian stores. I guess
it's his intelligence cover and real patriots I would say
definitely connect through either Canadian or Russian servers to that
while such a traitor as myself, they always connect through Ukraine.

(34:24):
Sarcasm here of course. By the way, this was a
picture that that made circles last week. This was a
cemetery in the Wolf that ran out of spaces. But
just it seems when it's completely full. Just five days
later we see the Minister of Defense from a God
who comes out and says that we are giving another

(34:49):
hector's hector and a half on the cemetery. So you
all cannet scale, you all can leave content. We have
more space to bury more people. Don't worry. Yeah, okay,
I'll like say today is somewhat as sad, but mini

(35:11):
date notable date one thousand, three hundred and seventy days.
Of course it's not fifteen hundred, but I would prefer
us not to hit the bigger dates on this war. Let's, however,
take a look at the front. They were definitely news

(35:32):
as the Minister of Defense of Russian Federation is stating
that they have taken them. That deep state map that
you mentioned, it's lagging behind, it's still not showing it,
but we can definitely observe that the fight is already
inside Constantinovka. Situation in Pokrovsk was somewhat mentioned by Panko,

(35:58):
by that storm trooper who's somewhat popular in the media,
saying that we pushed Russians out and Ukrainians in return
from the front said now we actually have not pushtructions there.
So let's go through the front and look at these positions,
because Konstantinovka is a very important area on the front,
talking about the Russian bleeds creek to that township. Okay,

(36:22):
if we start here in the middle athough I do
usually prefer going north or south or south to north,
we can start Fromkostantinovka. Nothing changed drastically. The key and
most difficult and most dangerous direction right now is the Parochia.
More precisely, Russian actions from the north east flank the

(36:43):
ones that are attacking Pokrovsky, cutting the border of Petrov's
district and going to the Parochia. So this is the
most dangerous direction strategically for Ukraine because it creates a
significant threat to an industrial centers of Parogia, the Parosi

(37:04):
industrial district plus neeper It's only about eighty kilometers to
the Neepro from there, and this is the last significant
industrial area close to the front line, and the presence
of that front line so close to the defense manufacturing

(37:27):
area is a potential catastrophe for our military production. Plus
there's energy power lines happening in the vicinity that will
likely be attacked and disrupted. So yeah, that's one of
the most strategically dangerous area. That's roden Bus. Capture of Pakroovsk.
Russians taking off Pokrovski is just a matter of time.

(37:51):
Given that it has not fallen yet, we probably still
have reserves that are holding it, yes, right here. And
second that if after capturing Pakrovsk they go to the
Propolia and then Barrinkova, it's about sixty kilometers. This is
the last train station that is supplying our group and

(38:14):
doun Bus. And the third if they take Instantinovka, they're
creating that operative balcony to attack Slavansk and kramat Orsk
and then Liman Forestry. They're creating that balcony down south
that they can use to attack. They're creating conditions for

(38:35):
the operation of capture of Slavansk and kramat Orsk. Plus Ssk,
there is additional motion in Sieversk. They're already breaking through
the line, and if they manage to exhort additional pressure,
they might actually push it this group out that was
unwavering and standing there since basically the beginning of War two.

(38:57):
And if they managed to close this gap, they will
free about seventy or eighty thousand troops that are now
dispersed through a longer front line, and then they'll be
able to move them anywhere else on the front. Same
thing will happen when they take Pakrovsk. The front will
straighten up and two thirds of what they have there
will be liberated to be used elsewhere. That's why pincers

(39:22):
is such an advantageous way of conducting warfare, because it
allows you to free a lot of troops. If you
are successfully concluding this maneuver, that you can use to
create new pincers elsewhere. And of course we can talk
about certain villages and other areas, but in reality this

(39:47):
is micromanagement then, so I'd prefer to stay on a
strategic level. In strategic perspectives, the most dangerous is Zaparogia,
the loss of kremators Can Slavansk and the Harkov in
the eastern part. These are potential dangerous points in the future.

(40:10):
That's from future perspectives. After Slovaskan Kramatorsk falls, Harkov will
be in danger. So Kupensk group, are they done or
what's happening there? Because Putin already declared that they're successfully
moving forward there. Our resources are very delicate with this
direction and still holding. Yeah, we dropped some reserves to

(40:32):
that part of the front. They produce sort of stabilizing effect.
But the problem is that reserves are small and the
stabilizing effect sooner or later will run out. So right
now Pokrovsk, Mirgret and Kupensk are being fought for. But
the perspectives and all of them is unfavorable for Ukraine.

(40:56):
That will use all of them because we don't have reserves.
That's it now. If we drop additional reserves and if
we find reserves to drop them and hold these townships.
For example, in Pakrovsk, the Propolia and thea Parogia operation

(41:16):
on that flank starting from Dunbast to Zaparogia. That's about
one hundred and seventy thousand troops. How many else do
we drop there fifteen to twenty thousand that already allows
us to hold it. That's why the big war is
always the fight of reserves. The one who is more
successful at developing these reserves, at growing them and dropping
them in the difficult parts of the front. This is

(41:39):
where a small country can win over the large country
if you are smart in doing that. But ay, we
have significant tissue with reserves. Basically we have none, and
this is a key threat when we run out of
the last reserves that are still fighting for Pacrossk and
Kupinsk to hold different because due to these reserves, this

(42:02):
is only because of them dying there. Right now, we
as a country can posture and Seynsky's office can say that, hey,
we're still holding, and then Russians will little streams will
connect into bigger rivers and will be much more difficult
to hold them. Well, I say, right before a stream
we had another piece of information vice commander or second

(42:26):
in command and a third storm core who is writing
that I cannot recall such a speed of enemy advancement.
Hasn't been like that for a while. The front is
not advancing on our side, station is only deteriorating, and
very soon the station will become critical. I cannot recall

(42:49):
when it was the last time we were losing territories
so quickly and right now the operative position of our
enemy is getting better on the whole direction of the front.
To confirm that he's using more tactical data. And this
is Jordian who is publishing it. I want to discuss
another difficult topic with you, Russian's incursion to Kiev. More

(43:14):
and more it is being brought up in the media
that now if we sign or not sign the treaty
of these articles, we may be facing an opportunity to
meet Russian tanks in Kiev. If we do not do that,
how do you see, well, Russians try Kiev campaign again?

(43:37):
Could it be as a possibility and when from the
military perspective that would be possible? Well, listen for that,
they need to have significant reserves liberated from the current campaign.
So if for example, they take Pakrovsk and they get
operative technical reserves, if in some other area they succeed,

(43:59):
for example incuipments, it's difficult to liberate any troops because
they'll have to continue fighting going south to cut more
standing troops and get another pincer's But if they managed
to create another Operative one hundred, one hundred and fifty
thousand group on the Kiev direction, this would be just

(44:19):
by itself being even if they don't cross the border
from Belrus, that will be a significant factor on these negotiations.
They could do it at panic, at political pressure, and
if necessary, they could go for Kiev as the last
argument to break Ukrainian position on negotiations, because if Kiev

(44:42):
is under surrender or under encirclement, that'll be a significant
push to change Ukrainian position on these negotiations. So Stambul,
if you remember, started when the KIV was under siege
in twenty two, SAMO two can start when Kiev is

(45:03):
under siege again. That's a probability. Now I could say
that that's what I would do in their place, but
this phrase would significantly upset our viewers, although I would
say this is reasonable and rational action if that happens,

(45:24):
because then many of our people would discover that Russians
can actually be reasonable and apparently there's a trip being
a traitor to Ukrainian people if you say it like this.
That's why I would say a different formulation here. This
is probable. This is possible because if I was in
the place of Russians, that looks like a rational act,

(45:46):
and in some conditions it becomes a very significant option
for them to use in order to achieve certain success
and negotiations. So yes, this is possible, maybe February or somewhere,
especially if the data that the West is operating in

(46:09):
the West day. I think that Russia is approaching default,
that the economy in Russia is difficult, so understanding that
we can perhaps will not be able to continue waging
this war on a large scale, he can concentrate his
troops for the last resulting attack near Kiev. And again,

(46:29):
what do you use to defend Kiev with? Because our
brave reserves, the last one of them are still fighting
for Pakrovsknkupensk, So defensive Kiev will be a significant question mark.
End of the first hour

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