Episode 48: Draft Season and The End Times

Nate and The Rook return to discuss likelihoods...how likely your FYPD is a scam and if the End Times are upon us. The duo also drafts out their 2025 B-Side selections and talk about some FYP targets.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Nine five miles an hour were riding two his head.

Speaker 2 (00:05):
He hop it down.

Speaker 1 (00:06):
First with the limp bonius face, and now on the
very next pitch he up and stole second things with
gradest he wasn't born, he had, yes, YOUNI born?

Speaker 2 (00:28):
All right. Welcome to episode Esteban Lewisa of The Prospect
B Sides Podcast, Episode forty eight. I am Nate handy
with me as always the rook oh rook exclamation point.

Speaker 3 (00:40):
Today, we're excited to be back, Nate. It's been way
too long, man. I missed talking to you, hearing you
on all these other podcasts, but you can make time
to talk to little old me. I see how it is.

Speaker 2 (00:50):
Man. I did not expect like a six week hiatus
from recording with you, but so apologies for that. I've
missed talking to you as well. Matt. But esb Wisa,
you approve that's this desaturation number forty eight, right, yeah, yeah,
I could.

Speaker 3 (01:05):
He's b said enough he had.

Speaker 2 (01:06):
One one nice like cy young caliber year. Yeah, white sucks.
You know. I actually have a signed baseball from Esteban Ewisa. Really,
I gotta be careful though, I can't be taking that
thing through customs. I had no idea what might be
inside of it?

Speaker 3 (01:21):
He gives you from his personal stash.

Speaker 2 (01:23):
I don't know. I don't know where it came from.
I don't know what's inside of that. I don't know
where mister Lewisa is these days. I think is he
still in prison? I have no idea.

Speaker 3 (01:31):
Well, I'm hopeful that the Braves number forty eight is
going to make a bit of a comeback this year.
Ian Anderson is such a key part of a couple
of deep postseason runs and might be back from the
dead from the proverbial fantasy wasteland.

Speaker 2 (01:45):
So you know, I got that where I could use that.
I could use return to that sort of form. But Noah,
before man, the Cosmos news. Have you have you heard?

Speaker 3 (01:54):
What is good?

Speaker 2 (01:56):
Yeah? I mean the hered events revolving around the most
of these days is just such an up and down,
such a whirlwind. It was so positive feeling after all
the UAP stuff, and now I don't know. It turns
out twenty thirty two might be it for us. Huh.

Speaker 3 (02:12):
We got to talk to some of our dynasty mates
that are rebuilding for twenty thirty two and might need
to recalibrate their competitive windows.

Speaker 2 (02:20):
That's what I'm saying, like a DSL guy, like those
might just be all out the window right now. Twenty
thirty two might be the last year we get to
play this game. Yeah, they say three point one percent chance,
but they're not going to be able to observe it
again or something like that until like another year from now. So,
I mean, the way that it's been trending, the possibility
has been like doubling from like every other day. So

(02:43):
I hope that trend stops and we get better news
than a year.

Speaker 3 (02:46):
But the other thing to consider is that even if
that goes up to one hundred percent gonna intersect Earth's orbit,
it's still really small even Earth scale of things, it's
a very small. So if it hits the ocean, like
basically nothing is going to happen. The chances that it
hits like something significant is way way smaller even than

(03:10):
the chances that it hits Earth. So you know, just
like keep that in context. It's I don't know, man,
it's crazy we know about it this far in advance,
Like that's amazing. Science is incredible and the astrophysics of
it all is incredible. But yeah, this is not high
on my list of worries currently.

Speaker 2 (03:27):
Oh, I'm orderline terrified. But it could be like the
size of a minivan or something like it's going to
hit my house for sure.

Speaker 3 (03:36):
No, their current prediction, I think is like the Pacific.
That's that's what they're saying.

Speaker 2 (03:42):
O's yeah, all.

Speaker 3 (03:43):
Right, well, which I mean, I don't know. I haven't
seen all of your house, so like maybe your house
is as big as the Pacific. But I'm guessing not.

Speaker 2 (03:50):
No, no, definitely not. Well. We are in the middle
of like draft season, right, I think I'm like legit
snack dab right in the middle halfway through half of
my off season. D You know, we don't get asked
questions from listeners to too often, Matt, but a lot
of them did reach out and want to know how
we kind of prioritized our B side selections that we
were talking about this off season. And I think that's

(04:12):
probably a good question, and I thought maybe we should,
you know, try to answer that for some of our listeners.

Speaker 3 (04:18):
I know, sounds great.

Speaker 2 (04:19):
Yeah, I know last year we did like a bit
of a competitive draft sort of thing, and I think
we'll probably do the same sort of thing here tonight.
You get aside I get aside and we'll kind of
see how it all lines up at the end and
crowned champion. But since we are in the middle of
draft season, some of our B siders, Matt are like
gaining popularity or at least upping their roster percentages. Right,

(04:40):
we were picking all these guys the roster percentages back
in September. We're from not created in fan tracks yet
to two percent. Right. Maybe a couple went a little
bit over, like three percent, But for the most part,
that was the demographic derange we were looking for. And
now that we're you know, it's probably a lot more
dynasty leagues are drafting now on fan track. This is
roster percentage data. I don't it will change when a

(05:04):
lot of redraft leagues get up and running, so I
imagine a lot of these percentages will will come back down.
But I did put a list together mad of all
of our B siders and where their roster percentages were
sitting at. I don't know how much you've looked at that,
but I think they're.

Speaker 3 (05:19):
Just in the five minutes since since you sent it
to me.

Speaker 2 (05:23):
But you've looked at it, though, yes, you've looked at
the yep.

Speaker 3 (05:26):
Yeah, scrolling through.

Speaker 2 (05:29):
No surprise to me who's on top. Nestor German is
at fifteen percent right now. I know he was what
zero percent when we first talked about him.

Speaker 3 (05:38):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (05:38):
I have not been able to get him in any
drafts he's been going before I had a chance to
pull the trigger on him that. I don't know about you,
but I've.

Speaker 3 (05:45):
Gotten him a couple of times. Once did from last
year as a waiver pickup, and once early in a draft.

Speaker 2 (05:53):
So the Nestor German train seems to be picking up
a little bit of speed. Second on the list. This
was kind of surprising to me. But your Mariner's arm,
Brandon Garcia is at thirteen percent.

Speaker 3 (06:04):
Mm.

Speaker 2 (06:04):
Threck me if I'm wrong here, But I think he's
moving to the bullpen right like, that's that's where he's
going to be.

Speaker 3 (06:10):
I think the report that I saw was they're giving
him the chance to make the Mariners out of camp
in the bullpen. I did see something else that said
they still think he might have a shot to be
a starter long term, but they've done this before, kind
of like said, hey, maybe you've got a shot to
move to the pen, but we're going to keep the
door open. They did this a bit with Matt Brash,

(06:32):
where he was a starter in the miners. They said,
we love your stuff. You don't have a spot in
the rotation, but you could earn a spot in the
bullpen and then we'll reassess. And he was just so
good in the pen that they like said you're going
to stick in the pen. And then obviously TJ and
all that. But anyway, I wonder if Brandon Garcia is
going to have that same kind of optional path where

(06:52):
he starts as a reliever. Maybe maybe they don't think
he's ready for the bullpen and they want to keep
him developing as a starter and they send him back
to double A or Triple A. But I guess we're
going to see a lot of Brandon Garcia versus like
some real minor leaguers in spring training, which is fun too.

Speaker 2 (07:08):
Yeah. At the time, my Philly's arm is now with
the Twins after the Rule five draft, Iberson Castillano is
at twelve percent, your guy Lucas Browns at ten percent,
Will Simpson's at ten percent, idol kemps at nine percent.
I was surprised Juan Valera, who is probably at the
bottom of my thirty arms.

Speaker 3 (07:26):
That is a surprise to me too, is.

Speaker 2 (07:27):
That eight percent? Yeah, Chad Patrick is that eight percent?
R J. Shreks at eight percent, Tintawa seven, kind of
the early seven, Jake Miller seven, kind of Benitez seven Yet,
how do you say his first name? Yead here? Arianamo
at seven percent, lizbel Diez at seven percent, Gusto at six,
Darlin Saladine at six. Yeah. I won't go through the rest,

(07:50):
but there's a good junk. There's probably about twenty more
arms that are above two percent right now. But I
don't know if that's necessarily a true jump in popularity
or the ratio of dynasty leagues to redraft leagues right
now on fan t rex. Yeah, I don't know any
any takeaways, there any surprises for you.

Speaker 3 (08:09):
I think, like you said, Valera being at eight percent
as a surprise to me. I think Chad Patrick is
probably too low at eight percent, Like that's He's somebody
that I think that could easily be twenty twenty five
percent depending on how things shake out early this year.
Jake Miller's another one that if any of the reports
that we've seen are to be believed, he should be

(08:30):
up there at fifteen right now with Nestor German, like
that's he looks great and we obviously loved him coming
into this offseason. Yeah, a couple others that kind of
surprised me a little bit, but not too much. I
mean again, like you said, it's an odd time in
the dynasty calendar where some you know, I think a
lot of fypds and unowned prospect drafts are happening for

(08:51):
our deeper leagues, but the redraft stuff hasn't picked up,
so and a lot of these guys too, Like there's
a good chance that some of them could move significantly
based on spring training news. You know, I saw down
there that John rave is at one percent fine, but
if he wins like the right field job for the Royals,
like that's going to be ten percent minimum coming out

(09:13):
of spring training. So some of these are make a
lot of sense. And you know, we came into this
doing a bit of prep for a mini draft between us,
and I don't really think it's a surprise who has
ended up at the top, like that group of ten
or so at the top, Like that's probably the top
of our prep list. I don't know about you, but
pretty close, it looks pretty similar to mine, with the
exception of a couple of others.

Speaker 2 (09:34):
I know, I chatted about this a little bit with
Clegg and the Dynasty dugout discord, but I'm kind of
surprised that Will Johnston is still only at two percent. Yeah,
I kind of. I don't know. I don't think there's
too much of a difference in a play between he
and like a Jake Miller. I kind of kind of
value both those guys similarly, Any surprises, any takeaways from

(09:55):
from your drafts so far this season, anything on the
first year player side or supplement prospects.

Speaker 3 (10:01):
Okay, so let me get this out of the way first.
I think fypds are a scam and I would trade
my picks away in my fypds every single time. And
there's a few reasons for this one.

Speaker 2 (10:17):
We know way.

Speaker 3 (10:18):
Less about the first year players than we think we do,
and there's some great lists out there, there's some great
scouting out there. Teams are doing, I think, an even
better job than they ever have at trying to sort
the wheep from the chaff in the draft, and that's
great and hat tip to the awesome work that the
folks do at Baseball America, And you know, Chris obviously

(10:39):
goes super deep into the FYPD lists, and there's a
bunch of others really good, like Aaron Layton, the stuff
that he puts out TJ. Nestico, Like, there's a bunch
of people that are doing really good, interesting work and
trying to analyze this stuff. But as a dynasty baseball player,
if my goal is to win, I think taking the
FYPD picks is almost always the wrong choice, especially if

(11:01):
you're in an unowned prospects an FYPD draft, I don't
think dynasty owners appropriately value the extra information that you
have about the unowned prospects. This gives us two things. One,
the valance, like the spread of risk is narrower even
for a young guy who's just touching low A that

(11:23):
you generally still have more looks and a better calibration
of their talent even with two hundred and fifty low
A plate appearances than you do from five hundred and
fifty over three seasons in college. And I don't think
we act like that in fypds. And I think this
is where we get in trouble. When you look at
like the historical performance of the you know whatever, top

(11:46):
hundred picks in a draft or in an FYPD dynasty ranking.
I just think we see some of the hurting that
happens in list making. We get excited about the possibility
of what could be, but that risk is actually way
bigger than we think, and the small sample performance of
guys in their fifty plate appearances after the draft or

(12:08):
that they didn't pitch, I don't think we do a
good enough job weighing that against real performance. Put my
money where I'm matt mouth is here, Like I've in
our thirty teamer that you and I are in. I
traded away all five of my FYPD picks this year,
and this is a deep thirty team league. This is
a bunch of sharp owners. I don't think these people
are bad at this, and by any means, there's a

(12:29):
lot of really sharp minds in there. But I think
from a roster construction and risk to reward evaluation standpoint,
you're almost always better going for the prospect that you
know more about than the mystery box that could be.
And the example I'll bring up here, and again no
shade on my trade partner, they're super sharp in dynasty

(12:49):
and I think made a lot of good moves in
this draft, a lot of good picks. But I traded
my first overall pick, the twentieth overall pick in our
FYPD and Tursou ornellis who I like, you know, maybe
has a sh to play in the Big six year
for Dylan Dingler and Chase my draft, and he took
Carson Benge at that pick one twenty. And I think

(13:09):
if you if you're the Mets and Carson Benge does
what Chase my draft has done the last two years,
you're fucking thrilled. You're like, Wow, we crushed that pick
at what at whatever he went like at seventeenth or
whatever it was in this draft, we crushed that pick.
That's incredible. That's like a small chance, like maybe that's

(13:29):
an eightieth percentile outcome for him, maybe seventy p It's
definitely above average when you look at like the return
on investment for second half of the first round pick.
And my draft, while divisive, is considered a top one
hundred prospect by a lot of outlets and certainly fantasy
relevant ones, and the especially in a points league in

(13:50):
that kind of format. Knowing your format, piece like to me,
my drafts should have gone in the top five picks
of this draft if people were like really ruthless about
this and tired about like performance only. So I don't know,
and maybe I'm wrong, and maybe all of the computers
and the performance that he's had is going to completely
collapse because he can't hit the ball super hard. Totally
a possibility. There is that risk that the jump from

(14:12):
Triple A to major leagues is too much for him.
But I think this is indicative of we like the
mystery box toys of the FYPD, and we should put
a lot more stock in the performance and the tape
that we see in pro ball, not what we see
in college or underclass or in the perfect game stuff.
So that's my like overall rant. That means that I

(14:33):
generally lean pretty far away from taking any FYPD guys,
you know, outside of like maybe the top couple, Like
maybe I would take one of those really pretty boy
guys at the very top of the draft. I don't know.
I'm never at that position to see. I think people
would be well served to take a good look at
like are you in it for the excitement of maybe
hitting on the mystery box guy or should you just

(14:54):
go for the guy that you know a bit more about.
I don't know what's your feeling on this, Nate. You're
in that same draft and you've made some trades for
and moving back, So what do you think about that.

Speaker 2 (15:04):
It's interesting because that league is pretty long standing, and
you know, a lot of people have the opinion that
this first year player draft or this first year player
class is maybe not their favorites. But yet this was
the first time in the show that all thirty first
round picks were first year players. I think it says
a couple of things. I do think you know, in

(15:26):
the past there'd be an unrostered prospect. I was like, oh,
this is easily a top ten guy for me. In
this draft, those those guys are getting rostered more and more. So,
I think it's says a compliment to the league as
a whole that the good prospects are getting rostered a
lot more. But I think I agree with a lot
of what you said there. I'm much more inclined to

(15:47):
take a player that I know more about than I
do less. I think that's at the core of what
you were kind of saying there. But I do also
understand the Okay, I might know a lot about you know,
I don't kempt, but how excited him I about his MLB,
you know, potential and what his role might look like.
And you know, depending on your roster and where you sit,

(16:09):
maybe just taking a moonshot taking a guest on the
guys is more up your alley, you know, or more
of what you want to do. But I agree, I
think there's a lot of you know, shoot, we do
the B side stuff, man. I think there's there's always
some prospects out there that I value a lot more
than some top one hundred guys. And I think that's
kind of our whole point and what we're trying to
share and discover who some of those guys might be.

Speaker 3 (16:31):
Right, I was just going to say on that point,
like there's something of the curse of knowledge here where
because we pay so much more attention to guys that
just really aren't getting rostered in many dynasty leagues at all.
That the kind of knowledge base or like, I know
of another ten prospects that I would happily roster on
this league even after this thing finishes, and you know,

(16:52):
I don't have space for all of them. And that
also plays into it too. Just I'm not looking at
a list to tell me this is who's interesting, because
we've got lists on lists, on lists that are a
thousand prospects deep that we've evaluated, you know.

Speaker 2 (17:04):
Yeah, just because you're ranting a little bit. So many
times you hear somebody like, hey, I took Seth Halverson
in my first year player draft. Can we call it
something else because that wasn't a first year player draft
if you drafted Seth Helverston. Yeah, yeah, you know, I
do have a draft one league that's a true first
year player nothing else. But I think the majority of
the dynasty minor league draft. It's like a minor league

(17:28):
supplemental thing with first year player. So I don't have
a good name for it.

Speaker 3 (17:32):
But yeah, the off season.

Speaker 2 (17:34):
A little confusing when people are off.

Speaker 3 (17:36):
Season prospect draft. No, that's a good point too. I
think the other point, and this is something that I
think we chatted about last week. I was in another
points league draft and again that's an international free agent
and unknown prospects and FYPD guys, and that first round
was absolutely hilarious to me because this league is very specific.

(17:58):
It is to shallow. I mean relatively, it's like fourteen
or fifteen teams something like that, so kind of a
shallow league. The roster limits are not super deep. I
think it's like a was it thirty five roster or
forty one total roster, so like max your minor leagues
is like fifteen. So it's not very deep. And it's

(18:19):
also a pretty different points format that is very very
strikeout heavy penalty and pitching friendly. And everybody just went
down the draft as if it was like you know,
Chris Klegg's FYPD list. You know, Roki went first, makes sense,
and then they just went like straight down the FYPD order.
Not an appropriate enough weight on the format that we're

(18:41):
playing in, and some of that, like maybe you just
draft like the top couple names because they're still going
to fetch something in trade value. But for me, like
I took Caleb Durban in the first round ahead of
like a whole host of dudes that like Durbin is
way behind and most like Fantasy list, but it's because
the guy's not going to cave very much. He's probably
going to play decent amount this year, and he'll steal
some bags, and all of those things are rewarded really

(19:03):
well in this league, and I was like, most of
my picks ended up being like that because I just
don't think that a bunch of the other FYPD pretty
boys fit that bill. A lot of them have strikeout
concerns but decent power, and that's just not a thing
that really plays in this league. So my other point
is like, you should care a lot about your format
and that should absolutely change how you decide to draft.

Speaker 2 (19:25):
Definitely, Like to your original point here, I think you
can see it a lot when you know, what is
it now at mid July or whatever, when folks will
like update their prospect ranks, right, and they're now including
this year's draftees. Right. I don't have any statistics to
back this up, but been observing these things for a
while now, and it feels like to me, when that happens,

(19:46):
you'll get like a I don't know how many you'll get,
like ten to twenty MLB draft. E's like put in
someone's top top one hundred, but then a lot of
those guys end up falling out of it, right. And
I think it's the same phenomenon that you're talking about,
but it's the new name we don't know that this
guy sucks yet, right, So I'm going to take a
stab here, but I think that I thought it.

Speaker 3 (20:07):
Was interesting that I thought it was interesting. In Eric
Logenhingen's Top one hundred at Fangrafts this week, he mentioned
and a couple of commentors noted, that there weren't a
ton of the first year player from this past draft
in his top one hundred. I think fewer than often
get there, and some of that is maybe the relative
weakness of the class, but some of that, too, I
think is a reflection on when they've kind of been

(20:29):
over enthusiastic on and put more weight on things that
have turned out to be a little bit unreliable. And
you know, one of my favorite sources for additional context
and information is Denzenborski and his zips, and he put
out his zip's top one hundred, and he basically ignores
the first year players because he's like, the high school
and college data that we get is not predictive, and

(20:51):
their draft position is not predictive or not strongly enough
predictive for me to include it in this sample. And
I think that that represents a buying opportunity for most
people that you can trade back ignore the top pretty
boys like do kind of your own thing, and the
opportunity cost is actually not that high. Like the bus
rate is still super super high even for top five

(21:13):
draft picks, and we just don't know. So I think
that while teams and dynasty rankers and prospect rankers are
definitely getting better, there are still such huge questions even
from some of the top SEC performers. I think that's
still relevant, Like the Charlie Condon came into the draft
and just crushed it last year, was kind of bad

(21:34):
as a pro and now he's like in dropping out
of the top twenty five, top thirty in some places
that I've seen in fypds, because again, we really don't
know until they hit and perform or don't in pro ball,
and so why not take the remove at least some
of that risk by seeing how somebody has done against
against real professionals.

Speaker 2 (21:55):
Yeah, that one true first year player draft that I'm in.
It's five rounds. It's a fourteen team roto, I believe.
But you have to drop anybody from your existing spec
list if you want to house your first year player picks, right,
So dude, I got like I got to the third round,
I was like, I don't want any more of my picks.
No one I'm gonna pick here is gonna boot somebody
off my list. So I just kicked them down the

(22:16):
road and got to pick next year or something like that.
But it's tricky. I think I get more and more picky,
selective first year player players that I'll actually want to like,
sort of draft and commit to, and there's less and
less every year, I think. Yeah, but I'm also getting
to see less and less of them now hit full

(22:36):
season ball and MLB dot TV, so that might play
into it as well.

Speaker 3 (22:40):
Yeah, wish they would just film and showcase that dev
league that they're doing or whatever they're calling it that uh,
what's it called? What do they call it? I wanted
to short season, but that's the Bridge League, that's right, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (22:51):
Which is a ridiculous name to me. That's like my
grandmother played in a Bridge league? Like what that's true?

Speaker 3 (22:58):
My uncle plays in a Bridge league?

Speaker 2 (22:59):
Yea? They should we draft it up here? Should we
put some of our I don't know, I want to
say money, but we're not betting anything, but some of
our pride where our mouth is here?

Speaker 3 (23:11):
What are we doing like we're taking five hitters five
pitchers each and talking about him and try and spread
them around this ownership list. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (23:20):
Sure, sure, we broke down and got into all these
players in previous episodes, so I don't I don't think
I want to get like too too deep like we
did there. If folks want to listen to his talk
more about some of these players. I have all the
players time stamped on the episodes and when we get
into them. But yeah, I mean, I think we could
briefly chat about them. You're supposedly the defending champ in this,

(23:40):
so I guess I'll let you go first.

Speaker 3 (23:42):
Okay, Well, I'm going to leave the number one guy
on the board again because you like you identified him.
He's kind of your guy, but a huge coas on
on me, and I think in a vacuum I would
take Nesser German here.

Speaker 2 (23:56):
I would too. Let's just skip him. He's already getting popular.
We're not going to take all right, that's like the
most out of our list.

Speaker 3 (24:03):
It really had a tough time breaking this down because
I genuinely think my like the top ten arms that
I drafted, I love them. I would be like thrilled
in a thirty team or if this was my set
of arms that I'm rostering, I'll go with Ben Shields
as my first one. You know, we didn't mention him
in the intro, and while I've raved about him on
the show, I'm still not seeing a ton of people

(24:26):
pick him in FYPDS. I picked him in two because
I really really love what he's doing and think he's
the real deal.

Speaker 2 (24:33):
Only at right now, I know I.

Speaker 3 (24:35):
Saw that on the list only three percent, and I
think that is criminally underrated. Shoot, I'm forgetting where I
saw this now, but it might have been the robo
Scout Top one hundred Baseball America Dylan White's robo scout tool.
It put Ben Shields as a top one hundred arm.
Right now, I fully agree this guy belongs in that
like forty five plus to fifty tier of Like this

(24:58):
guy in the next year could earn in a major
league gaverage rotation spot and maybe he debuts and it's
like a one point five war kind of guy or
one war kind of guy and one hundred innings and
at peak he's you know, a one seventy five kind
of inning pitcher and is a kind of two point
two to three war starter. Like, I'm not saying this

(25:18):
guy is going to be Paul Schemes or anything, but
his depth of rotation, quality of stuff, the comps that
I had on him to a bunch of Max freed pitches,
but with additional pitches on top of that. It is
no wonder to me that this dude just crushed the
Eastern League this year, and I think he's gonna continue
to rise in the ranks, and I'm really hope that

(25:39):
the Yankees just PLoP him in Scranton and just see
what he does. I just think he is super talented
left handed pitcher with a deep arsenal of quality pitches
and velocity numbers aren't eye popping, but I think the
shape and the pitchability and the command all are there
and such the fastball itself plays up, and the depth
of repertoire helps helps everything come together too. So Ben

(26:01):
Shields is my would be my number one pick here
and again I've put my money where my mouth is year.
I've got him in a bunch of leagues now, and
even the leagues where I don't have him, I've tried
to trade for him, sometimes unsuccessfully, sometimes successfully. So Shields
is my guy here.

Speaker 2 (26:14):
My only hesitation with Shields, And I've been sitting at
the draft table thinking about him a few times as
I and I just went with somebody else. Is the
opportunity right now as things sit? How many innings is
he going to get with the Yankees? Does it require
that he moves, get traded whatever, So that has been
a tiebreaker for me with him and a couple other

(26:34):
guys this draft season.

Speaker 3 (26:36):
Yeah, And to that point, I don't know how many
innings he gets. I hard to put in a confident
over under on it. The Yankees they're super rich as
an organization, both in talent and in money. So if
some of their pitchers don't pan out, you know, Rodan
gets hurt, Free blows out his elbow in his first

(26:56):
year of his contract, Like, they do have some other
depth that I think they'd look at to fill things in.
You know, Will Warren notably probably ahead of him. I
don't know if really anybody else is that much farther ahead.
You know, he's not on the forty, So there's that.
So I think that also this year, like if you
really need the innings, this year is probably not his year.

(27:17):
But just talent, like maybe he's eighth or ninth in
their pecking order, and major league teams use like thirteen
starters in the course of a year, and if somebody's
really good, they'll keep giving him run. I'm just saying, like,
I don't think Brandon Lee Brandt and Alan Winan's and
whatever thirty eight year old Carlos Carrasco have left are

(27:38):
really that much of an impediment to Ben Shields ultimately
getting innings. That's it's a fair tiebreaker to use to say, like,
I need the innings this year, and I don't know
if I'm going to get him from Shields, but I
do re term that I'm pretty darn bullish on his
his skills.

Speaker 2 (27:51):
Yeah, I don't disagree with him as a pitcher as
a player, valuing him at the top of our offseason
work here. Yeah, draft season's fun because you get put
to the fire and you have to make your choices
and you find out who you like better than some others. So,
at least my first handful here, I'm just going to
kind of stick to what I learned and who I
learned I liked the most out of our selections this year. First,

(28:13):
I'm going to go with my guy, Ryan Gusto nice.
I think, you know, obviously he was supposed to debut
last season. I don't know how much run he's going
to get that fifth spot. I think it's kind of
up for grabs at least right now in the Astros rotation.
I'm not betting that he ends up breaking camp as
their fifth starter, but I think a shot and a
run is relatively quick here. And you know, like we

(28:35):
talked about, I like him as a sum of all parts.
I like him as a competitor as a person. Is
he the flashiest sexiest picture on my list this year?
Probably not, But I think Major League's success is very
much an outcome for Gusta. So I'll stick with him
and go with him first.

Speaker 3 (28:53):
Yeah, I like that one a lot. I don't think
I have any shares. I have definitely asked after him
as like a balancer in a couple of trades that
haven't gone through, but like he's somebody that I keep
targeting to. All right, let's go to the athlete side
of things. I'll highlight my number one here. You know,
Nate and I both identified a bunch of guys that
we were had in common that that we liked. The

(29:15):
top of my list though, was Aaron Estrada, and again
in our thirty teamer that we were just talking about,
I traded for Estrata with what I thought was great
price for my fifth round FIPD pick, which shows kind
of how others view Estrata and I get it like
he's on the smaller side. He's not. He's definitely overshadowed

(29:35):
in the deep and highly talented Baltimore system. But Aerin
Astrata just does so many things that I like, and
he's young and keeps performing even at advanced levels. His
worst season was the last little kind of month of
the season that he spent at High A this year,
and he was still a league average hitter as a
nineteen year old. The guys that were younger at that

(29:56):
level or higher, that list is vanishingly short, and ones
that did better than him is like two guys. It's
like Sebastian Walcott and who's the other one, Walker Jenkins.
I guess like are the two that were younger than
him went to the same level or higher and did better.
So that to me, I do care a lot about
h to level performance for a hitter. I think one
of the things is he's just getting underrated for his size,

(30:18):
and you know my feelings on that that if you're
a performer, baller's gonna ball and I don't really care
what your size is. So Aeron Estrada is my pick
here is do a bit of everything, really talented as
a youngster.

Speaker 2 (30:29):
Nice personally. If you want to take him, whatever, But
I'm going to skip over Iverson Castillano just because of
the rule five thing makes a little hairy. I did
draft him again, I have been rastering him. If you
want to value him this year, it's got to be
in a spot where you got to he's gonna be
a nothing burger to that much relief pitcher for you
for a season and then hope that in i don't

(30:50):
know a year or two years, you get a starter
out of it. It's a good point, but I know
there's a lot of formats that just make him that
worth it. But I do like him in a sense
just as much as done near anyway b side this year,
but I'm not going to draft. I'm kind of split
and torn here between one of my guys and one
of your guys, So I'll just let my guy win
the tiebreaker. Here and I'll go with RJ. Shrek nice.

(31:11):
I don't know. I know he's a non roster invite
this camp. Imagine he'll be getting a lot of decent
run and outfield. I remember when we talked about him.
I think this is just a guy who's got a
real shot to carve out an MLB job. He's you know,
he might not put out put up the monster evs
and stuff like that, but when it comes to like
batted ball shape, he's just like kind of primo getting

(31:33):
the most out of his batted balls. So RJ. Shrek,
I think that was a great get by the blue Jays,
and you know they I kind of feel like the
blue Jays are it's kind of wide open there right now.
It feels like with a lot of their their farm,
what's going on at the major league level, Like there
could very well be a lot of jobs up for grabs,
you know, next year or two and if they're going

(31:54):
to be kind of a whole new front office and
stuff might be in the cards. I don't know, but
RJ Shrek my favorite B side bat this offseason.

Speaker 3 (32:02):
So do you think Shrek can play center?

Speaker 2 (32:05):
I know he has some I think I haven't watched
enough defense to know for sure things. The gist that
I get from it all is like he's probably passable
and serviceable and could play there from time to time.
There's probably not where you want him all.

Speaker 3 (32:18):
Yeah, I feel like that. The Santander signing for muddles
the to me looking at their roster, just an in
terms of opportunity, looks like a lot of corner outfield guys.
You know, class A is the fastest, but I don't
think he's a very good center fielder. Lit Berfedo, Alan Roden,
Stuart Baroa, like all of those guys are corner guys

(32:41):
to me. And that's on top of George Springer who's
not going anywhere and Santander who's now signed for a while.
And obviously there's some DH reps to go through too,
but it's not like their infield is that freed up either.
I actually, in one of my drafts, I hovered between RJ.
Shrek and Alan Roaden, one of the other guys that's
like Sue, similar kind of player, and I went Rodent

(33:03):
just because the bat to ball skills for Roden, I
think or a touch better.

Speaker 2 (33:08):
I think he's probably had a Shrek in like the
sort of pecking order right now too.

Speaker 3 (33:11):
Yeah, And so I mean that's the thing though, is like,
how are these guys going to get reps? I think
this year it seems unlikely either of them will get
a lot of run. Definitely think Shrek as a talent
and his ability to get under a ball and hit
it in the air no matter where it is, Like
we talked about that, that's a fricking superpower and he's
so good at it. Yeah, okay, let's go. Yeah, let's
go back over to arms. And I mentioned this at

(33:34):
the outset, but Chad Patrick is my second one I
want to highlight here.

Speaker 2 (33:37):
That was my tie here.

Speaker 3 (33:40):
Yeah, I just he popped on was at the zips
list where he was top seventy five or something for him?
Am I making that up now? I'm saying that I
can't remember where I saw this or was that also
the robo scout thing might have been that, Yeah, I
think that was the robo Scout one as well. I
don't think he was on the zip's top one hundred anyway.
I think that Patrick is another one that he just

(34:02):
led the International League in strikeouts, and that is I
think we underrate how difficult that is to do both
in the combination of the sheer quantity of innings that
you have to throw, which I love having a platform
that says your actual starter quality pitcher that can last
deep into a game and do it for a whole season.
It also showcases the way his arsenal actually plays and

(34:25):
diving into the stat cast it's available in Triple A. Again,
like Patrick showed that all of his arsenal is playable
at the Triple A level, and especially that cutter first arsenal.
Like I think he's he's adopted the kind of modern
fastball heavy approach sort of. I think maybe lance Lynn
kind of pioneered this where he throws, you know, ninety

(34:45):
percent fastballs, but it's actually three completely distinct shapes and
it's actually three separate pitches and is kind of a
nightmare for hitters to know which of these fast pitches
and which direction they're going, And Patrick does that exceptionally well.
Also has a great change up. I mean, like, I
just think that this arsenal is underrated because it's not
ninety eight plus from alrighty, but we've seen that it's

(35:07):
super effective. I think the numbers back that up and
the visual evaluation does as well, and unlike some of
these other picks, I do think there's a world in
which he gets the opportunity to pitch significant innings this year,
and I'm super excited to see it. So Chad Patrick's
my other kind of top tier guy I wanted to highlight.

Speaker 2 (35:24):
I think I've drafted him three times this off season,
hoping to get some utility out of him right away
this season. Right, I think that's very much on the table.
Who do you think will get Who do you think
gets a shot first, Logan Henderson or Chad Patrick Patrick?

Speaker 3 (35:37):
I think, I mean he's just higher up in the
pecking order. And look, I love Logan Henderson, you know it, everybody.
I tried to yell about it so much last year,
and were it not for his industry injury, I think
Logan Henderson might be ahead in that pecking order. But
just the amount of innings that Patrick threw and the
platform that he gave him, Like, I think that they
are going to see what Patrick has if they need

(35:59):
to fill in. I also love Casey Hunt in that
same kind of like those three to me, or the
three most exciting arms for the Brewers, and that is
definitely shaded on Jacob Misrawski. You know, I would not
be surprised to see those three in the Milwaukee rotation
for a long time to come.

Speaker 2 (36:15):
Yeah, my next one here's gonna be a young arm
or young bat, and both of them. I don't know
if we would sat down and done this a month
ago or something like that, before my drafts, I probably
wouldn't have these guys up here. But trying to stay
true to what I did when I sat down at
the draft table, right, And I'm kind of surprised that
I ended up going with both these guys before a
couple more advanced, older arms and bats. But let's go

(36:38):
with I'm gonna go with Jose or being a.

Speaker 3 (36:41):
Rays interesting interesting, like.

Speaker 2 (36:43):
I've been sitting there with with like him at the
top of my pitching que and Jake Miller and like
Will Johnston some of your guys. And maybe it's because
it's later in drafts or whatever it might be, or
maybe it's situational to the team, but I've been taking
the kind of the home run more of a home
run swing and taking Urbina over those guys, So I

(37:04):
feel like I gotta keep it real and do it here.
So Jose, being a young arm in the raised system,
I like the look of a lot. Has a really hard, firm,
good looking slider, good looking fastball. He's a young kid
who went through like a crazy growth spurt last year
or two years. Big frame, big frame that you can
still fill out, I think, and uh yeah, just going
for a bit of a boom here.

Speaker 3 (37:24):
And so I know that there are a couple of
other folks that like him. I think he's pretty high
up in Chris Klegg's latest list, So you're you're far
from alone on this one. I looked long and hard
at him in one of my drafts because I, you know,
you shouted him and we had talked about him, and
I hadn't watched him much, and man, I like didn't
see it, you know what I mean, Like it's this

(37:46):
is just one of these guys that why can't he
punch anybody out if the stuff is so good? And yeah,
he's young, but like even on the complex, he's punching
out eight per nine and walking almost five per nine,
and that's something.

Speaker 2 (37:59):
He knows how to pitch very well. Play Yet yeah,
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (38:01):
I know we talked about that when we when we
did the Al East episode.

Speaker 2 (38:05):
But well, I mean, if you think about last year, Matt,
you know, obviously I drafted arms in our thing, but
I drafted a lot of the wrong ones, and a
lot of the guys that I just had a little
young guys that I had a little look at were
the ones that blew up, like Gary Gale Hill and
some others. So maybe it's dumb, but I don't want
to make that mistake again. So I'm going to go
with the guy that I thought was the most exciting

(38:25):
young teenage got down at a ball b sider for
me this year, and that was Urbina.

Speaker 3 (38:31):
Yeah all right, all right, go back over to the
hitter side for me, and this is the guy that
we both really really like. So no surprise, I'm gonna
highlight Logan Wagner here. Logan Wagner is and other of
these guys that I think has a ton of talent.
He's basically done nothing but Rake when he's on the field.
He just hasn't been on the field that much. And
I don't know whether it's the like I just like

(38:53):
seeing such that top tier performance, but he's in this
similar bucket to me. As an Emmanuel Rodriguez chased the
latter like guys that have these incredible performance that they've
showed when they've been on the field, but it's starting
to get worrisome how little they're on the field. While
my worry about him is twofold one that he keeps

(39:14):
moving down the defensive spectrum. You know, he came in
as a shortstop and it was third base, and I
think now he's played some first and left and who
knows if he's got a defensive home and so that
might put additional pressure on the bat. But I also
worry that these injuries are like he is a little
more injury prone and that might eat into his viability
as a fantasy player as well. But watching him, I

(39:37):
really struggled to pick knits with the swing, with the performance,
and just to me, I feel like he is massively underrated. Still.
We were literally talking about it in the discord and
then one of my buddies in the draft saw it
and just took him, and I was totally plad I
got taking in with one of my last picks because
of course nobody's on him still, and he saw it
and was like, oh yeah, I'm gonna take a look

(39:57):
at Wagner. I was like, all right, yeah, fair, fair,
so logan for me, he's a top tier B side bat.
I would be shocked if he does not rise significantly
in popularity this year.

Speaker 2 (40:07):
Yeah, just stay on the field. But he's definitely there's
a clump of young switch hitters that I am just like,
have been enamored with and watching of late, and he's
definitely at the top of that list. For me, I'll
go with the batman that I was between last pick
and again, I'm kind of surprised that I find myself
going him over some of the older, more advanced bats

(40:30):
that we talked about this offseason. But Liz Bell Diez,
oh love that one. I just think I don't know.
I just liked the look of his technique and his
swing so much. It's so easy and it's so simple,
and he really turned it on the back half of
last year as what eighteen year old and a ball.
And maybe it's because in some spots I've been chasing

(40:50):
after power a little bit more because I didn't. I
was just feeling a little white there and my minor list.
But yeah, I find myself I've popped him several times
in drafts last season. So Lizbell, Diaz will be my
second hitter, third or third hitter, second second hitter.

Speaker 3 (41:05):
Yeah, no, great pick. And he's somebody that I've been
targeting in trades where I'm trying to consolidate or get
a get a kind of young bat throw in that
I think is a little underrated. But for all reasons
you said, like he has got some real power as
a young guy, and I think a decent hit tool too,
Like it's nothing to sneeze at as an eighteen year

(41:25):
old and full season ball to have an eighteen percent
k rate, like, especially when it comes with significant power,
like that's pretty rare. So I'm I'm a big, big
fan of his two. I think this is a great pick.

Speaker 2 (41:36):
I think a lot of those spots where I've gotten
him too, I've paired it with a PJ. Orlando pick.
He's he's my most drafted first year player guy so far.
And it's you know, obviously Orlando's left handed, Diaz is
right handed. But for me, I was chatting about this
the other day, it's like, if I'm going to make
a play like a power hitter, you know, a potential

(41:56):
sixty seventy kind of guy or hope or dream I
want to do that on a guy that I find
to just be like mechanically and technique wise just super impressive.
And both of those guys are that to me. So
I found myself like taking Orlando earlier in an FYP
first year players slash supplemental and then like down the
road just as like a little backup, like, yeah, I'll

(42:18):
take DS too. I have a couple of young power
guys to dream on.

Speaker 3 (42:22):
Just on Orlando. I did see in Longen Higgins right
up on him. I think he might have talked about
him as a pic to click or maybe it was
in the top one hundred chap that he did this week,
but he noted something about the swing mechanics for Orlando
that he's like really still almost unnaturally so and wondered
if a pro program.

Speaker 2 (42:42):
He's just standing there and just hitting monsters, dude.

Speaker 3 (42:45):
And I wondered if a pro program gives him a
little more rhythm, a little bit of like movement fluidity
to the thing that I mean, he dropped down for
a reason, right Like there are teams that were kind
of scared off by the kind of what he showed
because he came into the year the year as like
in talks right up there with some of the top
prep guys, right as like this might be a top

(43:06):
five pick.

Speaker 2 (43:06):
He's like forever been the number one prep guy from
his class, and he's still I number one guy. And
I just did like some back issues and was a
little hurt and didn't have a super impressive senior year
of high school, I guess, And I think that that's
that's like people are questioning like his his athleticism or
his speed, or his ability to stick in the outfield
or something that. To me, that's like would you measure

(43:29):
Jordan Alvarez the same way? Like that's not the ruler
to use for a guy like this. You're looking for power,
that's you're looking for home runs. And I think he's
a decent hitter too, where potentially can be a decent
hitter too, And I just find him to be as
just the biggest deal this year. He's going in like
the pick thirty forty and to me, obviously different strokes
for different folks, but to me, that's that's wild. I'm

(43:51):
all over it.

Speaker 3 (43:52):
Cool. Well, that's good, good upside bet for sure. Let's
stay on the hitter side still and another guy that
I've just being drawn to that I don't see it
a lot of love is Ricardo Olivar. He's not someone
that I've ended up in any of my supplemental drafts
or off season drafts, but I've traded for him once
and have asked after him a couple of times in

(44:14):
places as a throw in or a balancer in trade.
I think he's another one that's getting a little bit
underrated in that it's a pretty deep quality catching class
in the minor leagues generally, Like people have been talking
about how overall the talent might be down a bit,
but I think the catching talent is pretty high. He
catches and plays the outfield so has a bit of
that Swiss Army knife flexibility. But I think is a really,

(44:36):
really good hitter and was really surprised to see Zips
very very much agreed projected him if they plopped him
down in the middle of Minnesota's lineup, that he thinks
he would be a slightly better than league average bat
right now, so one oh two WRC plus Steamer generally
agrees that an eighty nine WRC plus and for twenty
three year old that hasn't sniffed triple A yet, really

(45:00):
just got a cup of coffee in double A. That
is a very very impressive translation. Finding myself drawn back
to him, I think when I initially did my pref list,
he was more around like nine or ten, but I
kept asking after him in trades or having a high
up on my queue in in drafts. So Ricardo Olivar
to me is one that is super super underrated, and

(45:20):
I would give him a long, long look and ask
for him as a throwing in trade because you know,
he's at what four percent now, like that's nothing at
this point.

Speaker 2 (45:29):
Yeah, I kind of had a feeling you take him here,
I will go with I guess what is my third
favorite B side that this last season in tin Tawa.
Nice Im. It's snagging him a lot, as you know,
extending hopefully extending my MLB bench in some spots. He's
got eligibility at first base and second base out the gates.
You know, hopefully he's a guy who, you know, maybe

(45:50):
he gets a shot as a little bit of a
utility bench guy and he can like run with it
a little bit, and maybe he's got some exciting offensive appeal.
I think he's very strong. I know the evs aren't
top of the scale, but as we talked about, our
guy's choked up two inches on the bad every time
he's up there and still lacing mine drafts everywhere and stuff.
But uh, yeah, I liked Allan. Hopefully I don't know

(46:13):
how many PAS he might get this season, but I'm
hoping for as many as possible.

Speaker 3 (46:17):
Agreed with you, you know, coming in, Like we talked
about this, he was one of my favorite bats coming
in as well, a co sign from both of us,
and still remains fairly high up on mine. But I
found as I came into drafts, I kept pushing other
people in front of him. And I think part of
this was that I don't know if I had given
enough weight to the offensive environments that he played in.

(46:38):
His home park is one of the most insane parks
in all of baseball, and while the performance was undoubtedly great,
he's done nothing but hit all throughout his minor league career.
I think that Arizona's affiliates are almost to he all
of them really really positive offensive environments. And when I
saw the major league translation, so when Steamer and Zips

(47:01):
came out, they were all projecting him pretty low and
like low enough that it's not really playable even if
he was a plus defender up the middle. And I
think he is a playable defender like second, third, laugh
and can play first and right, like you could put
him in kind of the four or five lower parts
of the defensive spectrum and he'd be okay. He really

(47:21):
needs his bat to carry him, and I'm not I
think I wasn't in my evaluation putting enough weight on
the offensive environment was looking a bit too much at
the surface stats for him. Still like him, and still
think there's a path to playing time and to fantasy success,
but the minor league kind of translations I think definitely
dampen my enthusiasm for Tala just a bit. It's been
hard now there's just a lot of ways to go.

(47:44):
Looking at my list here, we talked a little bit
about Brandon Garcia and Will Johnson. We were recording when
we talked about Johnson, right, yeah, okay, So we've touched
on those guys. You know, Big co sign on those dudes.
I think they're really good. Lucas Braun is up there
for me. I think just every model that comes out
like he gets noted as a guy that had an

(48:04):
underrated season, And again I think there are likely to
be some innings available for the Braves, And I don't
really think it's clear whether Kristin Walderp or A. J.
Smiths Shovor is better than Lucas Braun. They're certainly more
highly regarded. Maybe their top end outcomes are better, but
I think Lucas Brown has been better in the minor
leagues and I put a lot of weight into that.

(48:26):
So he's one that I definitely would consider here. But
I wanted to go like farther down the minor leagues
here because a lot of the guys that I gravitate
towards are in Triple A or Double A and nearer
to the big leagues. But it's fun kind of sticking
out those positions on some of the ones lower down
in the minor leagues. And so I was going to
pick a couple of pick from a couple of A
ball guys here, and when push came to chev, I

(48:47):
didn't roster either of these guys in any of my
fypds or a supplemental draft, just because proximity I think
matters a lot you should play in for all of
you guys too. But gotta shout Hose Gonzalez again. That guy.
He turned in such an incredible season. I think the
stuff is sweet. He bends it well, he's got great command,
just dominated hitters at low A for the Rangers, and well,

(49:11):
the Rangers are kind of a stacked tom. They got
a lot of arms that I'd say are ahead of him.
He still has time to prove that what he did
at a ball is going to succeed at the higher levels.
I'm of the belief that it is definitely going to
and it was pretty hard for me not to draft
him in a couple of places. The one team that
I really really hovered over for a long time is

(49:31):
a really competitive team, and I don't really have innings
to spare at the major league level or the near
major league level, So I'm trying to walk this line
of like having some low really low in the minors
upside shots with my old ass pitching staff and lineup
in the major leagues. And so he was really tempting
to me in that league, but I think I went

(49:51):
for a more seasoned arm. But I could see myself
flipping on that, like in the first week, because I
really almost took Kose Gonzalez. Gonzalez is my favorite A
ball arm that isn't one of the very very tippy
top pretty boys, and performance wise he was right up
there with Sikora Susanna like any of the top A
ball guys like Juse Gonzalez was right freaking there.

Speaker 2 (50:12):
Ye, no, I agree. I think he's yeah, been at
two percent still, you know at this junker maybe the
best B side call from us this off season that
isn't really getting much love in drafts. Maybe it's debatables,
but one of them for sure. Yeah, all right, I
am getting real sick of loser hitters named Jake Miller.

(50:34):
I mean it's probably pretty maybe a yawner pick for
us here, but yeah, Jake Miller, I'll go with, Yeah,
should we just or should we just skip Jake Miller
and I take.

Speaker 3 (50:44):
Somebody talked about him a lot, and I co signed
like I drafted him and with my first pick in
one of my leagues too, So like.

Speaker 2 (50:51):
I'll skip him. I like him just as much as
you know any B side arm more or less. I
gotta get Will Johnston on the list here. Several of
my drafts that I ended. He's been the guy like
that I would have taken next, so I haven't taken
it yet, but he's been real close. But yeah, like
I said, I know, as far as age and experience
and level and production at the level, like he and

(51:13):
Miller are basically the same guy, just very different pictures,
you know, Like we talked about, I like Johnson's over
the top delivery, more over the top delivery. I like
his arsenal. He was absolutely just destroying high at the
end of his run there and then shout out pretty
well as one taste of double A. So I think
and at two percent still, I think, still not really

(51:35):
getting the love.

Speaker 3 (51:36):
I'm one of those two percent though I took him
in one of those one of those drafts I would say,
according to most people, way too early, but I was
pumped to get him, like the third or fourth round
something like that. So, and that's a league that you
and I are going to talk about at some point,
because with trades and offseason moves and the way that
league works, you can be way over right up until
opening day. I'm like twelve prospects over my limit. So

(51:59):
I think you and I are going to talk about
helping me trim that roster down. You can talk me
off the ledge on some of them, but Johnson firmly
lower man on that list. I'm almost positive, so big
co sign here. All right, there's a bunch of guys
that I still want to talk about. Okay, I'll actually
take one of Nate's guy's first here, Austin Overn. You
and I have talked about a bit. I wasn't super

(52:21):
familiar with his game before you took him in the
B side. I watched him a little bit, but like
hadn't dived super deep, probably because my favorite B side
guy was Aaron Estrada in the same organization. So I
was like, no, I'm not going to pick anybody else.
But I looked a little bit more into Baltimore's Austin
Overn and was really impressed. He wasn't that good in college.

(52:42):
He was also a football player, and so I think
the reps there are he's like kind of undercook, but
for that, he was really good in his pro debut.
The reports on his defense are that it's plus in
center field, and he's shown that he can make that
speed work on the bases as well. I'm again forgetting

(53:03):
which projection system. I think it was Zips just loved him.
And anytime you see those big time outliers like you
take up with a bit of grain assault. Sometimes it's
a small sample, but usually they regress the small sample
performers pretty hard. So when you do get one like that,
I think you just pay a little more attention. And
I went back and looked at the tape and I
kind of I see, like the scouty view of it too,

(53:23):
that he's fast, he's strong, he made decent contact with
the baseball, and way underrated, especially for your rotor leagues.
I think there are some leagues where I'd be a
little skeptical about rostering him, But if stolen bases matter
and average matters, I think he's like criminally underrated in
the FYPD class and don't really understand why he's not

(53:45):
like in the top twenty or so. Again, huge air
bars around this, But for fantasy purposes, man, I think
he's he's a steal where he's going, so I think
over and should get a lot more love than he's getting.
And I did find myself rostering him in one place.
We'll see if he sticks. He's one of the ones
that might be on the cutlist. In that roster. But
I was intrigued enough to see to pay special attention

(54:06):
in spring training and watch him a little closer. So
Austin over and I was great pick Nate Handy.

Speaker 2 (54:10):
Yes, I did see somebody got him in my RAS
thirty draft. I saw maybe in like the middle of
our supplemental and first year players back draft there. Yeah,
he's at four percent, had some fans out there. I'm
just I'm not going to take either of these two guys,
but I'm gonna mention Will Simpson and Idol Camp. I
would consider them right here at ten and nine percent.

(54:31):
I think they're a little more popular, but that.

Speaker 3 (54:32):
Both have been pretty consistently taken in my leagues. I
think both have got Yeah.

Speaker 2 (54:36):
I love yeah, Yeah. But I don't think that any
bat that I go with for these next two picks here,
I value that much less than those two, or maybe
even more. But I think I am gonna go with
maybe I'll hold off on a bath. Yeah. This is
a I don't know, maybe a little bit risky because
I don't know how often a minor league free agent

(54:57):
pans out super well for you in fantasy. But I'm
going to go with one Mercedes on the arm side.
I've been close to taking him in the deepest of
my leagues, but have not yet with the thought that
maybe I'll just see how it goes and I'll be
at the top of my watch list. But you know,
I came over from Seattle was just dominant his second
half or whatever, jump to the k rate like freaking

(55:18):
doubled from the first half. I don't really even know why,
you know, like we talked about with the Giants and
maybe their situation that there's a decent chance that he
gets a big league opportunity fairly soon. So yeah, I'll
take a dice roll on one Mercedes.

Speaker 3 (55:31):
All right, Well, I'll stick on the arms here, and
I'll go with the guy that I took over Gonzales
when I was kind of late FYPD supplemental draft picks,
and I'll go with Logan Workmen. The Rays have a
ton of arms and they tend to use them until

(55:52):
they break, and that leaves lots of opportunity for folks,
and I think Workmen is one that could step into
that role as like for or five inning starter as
soon as this year. Those kinds of guys. I took
him as the tiebreaker over Jose Gonzalz because that kind
of shuttle performer can be really useful in this league,
and especially if it's like mid season or late season

(56:14):
and he's doing that. It's a bit of a kind
of gaming my system kind of play, and I think
that that's again drafting four your system and knowing your
league rules is absolutely paramount. But I also believe in
the arm. I just think that again, he's another of
these guys that performed at Triple A. Yes, the jump
to from Triple A to the majors is challenging, but

(56:36):
I also could see him being in shorter stints, an
elite set up kind of guy logan workman. He's not
the highest upside kind of pitcher, but he's one that
I really believe in his talent and think that he
could get a look with the big league squad soon.
He's not on the forty man and so maybe there's
a couple other guys that are ahead of him, but

(56:58):
he is eligible for the Rule five this year, so
I think he's gonna get put on the forty man
at some point. And the way that the Rays ripped
through arms like I could see, I could see him
getting some runs. So Logan Workmen is my pick here.
Is not a super high upside kind of guy, but
I think there's enough here to be interesting, and especially
in those leagues where you need a lot of arm depth,

(57:18):
you know, thirty teen points leagues. Like I rostered him
in Logan Workmen, you could do a lot worse than
and as a flyer late in a draft, I was
happy to grab.

Speaker 2 (57:25):
Him nice the Workmen and Mercedes both at one percent
right now.

Speaker 3 (57:30):
So yeah, I wanted to pick someone lower down. Yeah,
some people say we don't get muddy enough, you know,
like we sometimes got to get real, real money for it.

Speaker 2 (57:39):
All right, I will take my last arm here. And
this is tough because there's there's like ten dudes that
I think are all worthy of this last spot. I
already ROSTEREDO in a couple of leagues, but he's been
getting plucked in some kind of benitez. I think could
could really blow up the popularity this year.

Speaker 3 (57:57):
Both those guys got taken in in one of my
drafts in the same round that I was like, Yeah, besides.

Speaker 2 (58:02):
Same thing with Adrian Bajorkaz Nico Zeglein super interesting to me.
I always nd these things with a giant shot, a
big swing, and I'll go with my guy Wellington Arisenia
all right, who is at zero percent still, which I
don't push back against too much. But as we talked about,
this is a guy with throws very hard. It's very

(58:24):
a lot of movement on his cutter, big fastball, big frame,
and walks have been the major problem for him. But
like we talked about, there wasn't a whole lot of
a ball innings to watch, like a lot of guys
that I kind of go with, and I didn't think
it looked that all that awful to me, and impossible
get some sort of like Justin Martinez vibes from him,

(58:47):
not necessarily like totally one for one, but could go
that kind of route and that sort of path very much.
Could just be a reliever. But maybe they start to
give him some innings, and I think he's just the
kind of guy that the stuff is overpowering enough, but
if you can just throw strikes, he's gonna like put
up some big K percentages and get more popular. And
I saw I think long and Hagens has him as

(59:09):
like fifteen on the Mets list. Oh nice, whatever that's worth,
But it's you know, it's it's big stuff, gotta harness
it sort of play. But Wellington Airsenia. I thought about him.
I thought about him in one draft. I was like, yeah,
maybe just see how the first week goes, and if
he's you know, walks a bunch of dudes, I don't
I don't mind having some empty spec spots to the

(59:30):
first couple of weeks or months of the mL MiLB season.

Speaker 3 (59:34):
Yeah, that's a good point. And I in some of
my drafts I skewed really for the teenager upside shots.
You know. I went like Josh war Day's consolidations went
for him in one im paired him with Johnny Level
and they're both seventeen and we're not going to see
anything from them for weeks of the season, so you know,
those kinds of picks, like you know you're hanging on
to him for a long time. But I do agree

(59:56):
like sometimes having those picks at the back of the
roster to be like, okay, I need to turn this
four a pop up, that's the startup.

Speaker 2 (01:00:01):
But I did I use my last like five six
spec picks on just like teenage bats. I was most
anxious to see this year. It's a nice aspects in season,
and so if they don't, don't. I'm not married to them,
like I can truffle them, no problem. But if they
come out of the gates swinging it real, well, we'll
hang on to them. All right.

Speaker 3 (01:00:18):
Let's go back to the bats here, and I'm going
to talk about two guys and use them to illustrate
part of this point about like knowing your format. So
the two guys are Yader Arianamo and Nick Simio or Samilo.
They could not be more different. I have been back
to back on this preference list that we'd made. I
guess one guy TAAs in between them, but it's Arianamo,

(01:00:41):
Tawa and then Samilo, and those three guys really couldn't
be more different. Taua is a bit of do everything,
play all over kind of guy. Arianamo is contact first
up the middle, decent defense. Similo's first base only probably
I think he's played other spots, but he really only
looks playable at first and hits the absolute snot out

(01:01:02):
of the ball. They're all pretty low ownership, I think,
like Similo, I think is like one percent. Would you say.

Speaker 2 (01:01:08):
Tawa was at tin Talas at seven percent.

Speaker 3 (01:01:11):
And Aeronamas around seven percent too, right, Okay, so you
know those two are maybe a little more owned. But
in this league I had these one. Yeah, So in
this league I had those three guys on my list. Again,
this is super late. I had the last three PICKXE
of this draft, and I was like lining up who
I wanted to take, and I went back and forth,
and these guys were all on this list, and the

(01:01:31):
format dictates Nick Similo was the pick by far slam
dunk in this draft, even though he's the one percenter,
even though my preference list has aeronamo on Taua above him.
But this league is a K penalty league. But our
K penalty is one point. You know how much how
many points you get for one home run in this league?
Eight double it, that's the single one home run is

(01:01:54):
sixteen points, and you know what, that's just for the
home run. You also get a run in an RBI
with it. So you know how many points you actually
get for a home run twenty four twenty four points
for a home run one minus one strikeout. So power
fucking plays in this league. And that's what Samlo brings.
And so because his profile, while you know, narrow path

(01:02:15):
to the major leagues and the bar for him to
hit is going to be really high. I went with Similo,
and yeah, because he's one percent, he's still in Double A,
and he's a right handed first baseman. All of those
things are working against him to make the major leagues
and be successful. But if he makes it in this format,
he is for sure going to be a better performer

(01:02:35):
than the other guys, And so I use that as
a tiebreaker in this in this instance of just like,
know your format, know why guys are ranked places, either
for yourself or for other people, and use that to
draft accordingly. So I'll highlight Samilo, but with a head
nod towards Arianamo as well, whom in another league like Similo,
not even a consideration. But Arianamo, if he keeps doing

(01:02:56):
what he does, he might be someone that I target
in the off season list because his contact skills are
so good.

Speaker 2 (01:03:02):
All right, So for your hitters, I got Aaron Estrauta,
Logan Wagner, Ricardo Olivar, Austin overn and Nick Simillo. Yep, okay, oh,
I got to pick two more losers on two more
loser bats here. Hmmm, I think'm gonna take one of
your guys. I haven't drafted him yet, but I've been
close a few times. You kind of sold me on
Sevin Sebos that how you say it.

Speaker 3 (01:03:22):
I say it Saban Sabaios, But I don't.

Speaker 2 (01:03:25):
Know saving Sabaios. I'm gonna go with Saves. I think
I think it's a you know, a thirty teamer only league.
It's a It's a nice play because, like you talked
about the likelihood of him being a major leaguer because
of the glove, but we you noted how you know,
I think he's the reputation was like a defensive contact
first third baseman sort of, but think we're you at

(01:03:47):
least you were wondering if there was a little bit
more punch in the bat, and he was showing that
after his trade to the Giants. So yeah, I kind
of you kind of sold me there. And you know,
since you stole over and from me, I gotta steal
one from you.

Speaker 3 (01:04:00):
Only fair. Yeah, I like I like Sibios too. I
think he's got a lot going from He's one I
haven't rostered, but on my prefer list here he was
top ten.

Speaker 2 (01:04:11):
You know, he's five percent at the moment on fan tracks.

Speaker 3 (01:04:15):
Nice nice. I do want to play in one of
these leagues where it's just like an insane prospect pool.
So you know, it's like each team in the thirty
teamer rosters one hundred and fifty prospects or something like that,
you literally have the entire minor league pool available or
something like. I think that would be really really fun and.

Speaker 2 (01:04:35):
Fun and no in season pickups. It's just all draft.

Speaker 3 (01:04:39):
Yeah that I mean again more like the major leagues
in the professional systems like that, I would certainly put
more emphasis on the draft and on those throw ins
and trades. I told you that I picked up out
of the park baseball OTP and I have been playing
that in like all of my spare time, you know,
to scratch this fantasy baseball itch over the course of
the off season. It's super fun. Like, yeah, I get

(01:05:02):
why people love this thing for us baseball siccos Yeah,
I almost take as much as much enjoyment about managing
my minor leagues and making these like trades for terrible
prospects to see if there's something more in them than
I do managing the major league roster. So that that tracks.
Given this podcast and my interest in playing in a

(01:05:22):
you know sixty one hundred eight, one hundred and fifty
minor league slot dynasty room, So we need to we
need to make one of those, Nate, when we do
our next startup. Well, it's going to be aggressive on
the minor league rossers.

Speaker 2 (01:05:34):
Yeah, and then what do we gotta love? You got
to pick a picture and I got to pick a hitter.

Speaker 3 (01:05:37):
Yeah, And there's some fun ones still here.

Speaker 2 (01:05:40):
The pictures are so much more fun than the hitters
right now on that and you can't deny that.

Speaker 3 (01:05:46):
I mean, not more fun. There are just more of
them that I really like. I mean, the two I'm
debating between here are Gabriel Reis and Connolly Early. I
love both of them. Reis, I think is just a
little farther away. He's been hidden by the way that
Detroit has deployed him. So again he should be on

(01:06:08):
people's watch list, like he's one of the guys that
I'm most excited to see. A. Where does Detroit assign him?
And b how do they deploy him? Because he was injured,
came back and then did a lot of his rehabbing
appearances in relief, so he'd piggyback and do three, four
or five innings in relief. And so if people are
just scrolling through Fangraft's leaderboards, he wasn't a starter for

(01:06:28):
a lot of them, and if your filters weren't right,
you might have missed him. But he's definitely being developed
as a starter and has three great pitches, so reyes
like super exciting, but he's only done it in nable.
We haven't seen a lot of track record of performance.
He's still pretty young, so I'm so excited to see
him next year, but I'm instead gonna take Connelly early,
who I see is already up to seven percent like

(01:06:48):
and I think, as I mentioned, after I dove into
him and I was just gobsmacked with how good he was.
He's another one for me that I would not be
shocked that he's like a number three starter over the
next you know, five six years, like our legit major
league starter, just given the depth of repertoire. I think
he manipulates the shape of his fastball, which is the
thing that I love. And even though the velocity isn't there,

(01:07:12):
I think the approach angle and the shape are plus
maybe bordering on double. And I think that his secondaries
make his fastball play up as even more so. I'm
just way way in on Connolly Early, and unfortunately I've
not been able to get him anywhere. Whoever rosters him
is excited about it, for sure. Yeah, and I've been

(01:07:33):
bummed because I've, like you know, in trades, often don't
ask for the guy that I want first, like or
I'll ask for a major league piece and then negotiate
from there and see if I can get the minor
leaguers that I like offered in his balance or throw
in some trade. I've not been able to pry Early
away from anybody in my leagues yet, so but I'm
super excited about him, and I'll take him as my

(01:07:54):
last official draft arm here.

Speaker 2 (01:07:56):
On several bets, I think you can make a good
case for here, so some are yours too, Like I
think Aaron Parker would be, yeah, an excellent choice here.

Speaker 3 (01:08:04):
Yeah, we wrecked him for that, the guy that was
asking about the super Deep league and it was an
OPS league. And while Parker has contact concerns and wasn't
that highly regarded coming out of the draft, like, his
performance was so loud and hit the ball so fricking
hard that if it clicks, that's that's impressive.

Speaker 2 (01:08:21):
Tell me if I'm crazy here, But I'd have a
hard time, Like if one of my beasts of Carson,
McCusker and Parker is sitting here and I'm just like
I want home runs, Like, I would just go with McCusker,
right and get it over with, find out if there's
ever gonna be any home runs in the majors from
him or not? Right. So that would be a tough
internal debate for me between those two if this was
like a real draft here. But I think I'm gonna

(01:08:42):
go with gotta go with my favorite minor leader, being
close to drafting him, but he's not popular. Nobody likes
rack Reggio that much. After Clegg shared like some of
his hard hit data stuff, it was it was way
harder than I had anticipated. But I love Riggio. I
think we're gonna see him in the bigs at some point,
probably not with the Yankees, But how can you not

(01:09:05):
like this guy. Man just plays the game so freaking hard.
He's super aggressive at the plate, not very big, but
he can you can pack a punch, and I just
I just love him as a player, and I think
there is a big leaguer there, and who knows maybe
this is the year that he puts up some gaudy
numbers and gets some more attention.

Speaker 3 (01:09:23):
But I like this pick. He's super fun. Like you said,
his minor league highlights are incredible. He plays the game
super hard, and according to very sane and calm Yankees Twitter,
they think he should be the headliner in a Louis
Robert trade. So maybe he's the Yanks Luis Robert and
he'll be back on your favorite squad, the White Sox.

Speaker 2 (01:09:44):
Oh God, I hope, I hope he should doesn't end
up a White Sox. He does not deserve that. So
it's real quick. We'll run down the rosters here. The
Rooks five pitchers are Ben Shields, Chad Patrick, Jose Gonzalez,
Logan Workman, and Kindery Early. Now, we did have some caveats.
There are some that we like more than these from
our list, but it's kind of obvious now at this point,
so we just passed on those. I'm going with Ryan Gusteau,

(01:10:07):
Jose Urbina, Will Johnston, Jan Mercedes and Wellington Arisania. We
picked some guys that are still not getting popular. So
if you're looking for some more names in your deep leagues,
maybe there's some arms hit her side. Rook went with
Aaron Destrauda, Logan Wagner, love It, Ricardo Olivar, Austin Overne,
Nick Samillo, and I went with r J. Shrek, lizbel Diaz,

(01:10:30):
Tim Tawa, Saving Sebaos, and Rock Reggio. All right, Matt,
let's talk some first year players. I know, we love
our B siders and our unrostered prospects, and we like
to pluck those in our drafts here, but there are
some first year players that I like, and I think
you like. You talked about Austin Overn and apologies to listeners.

(01:10:52):
I really liked the first year player episode that we
did last year, but we didn't do one like that
this year, And in part because I don't know, Matt,
my first year player research, you know, watch them a lot,
just wasn't quite as intriguing to me as last year.
And I didn't have like videos of a lot of
guys that I thought were super interesting to share like
I did last year on social media.

Speaker 3 (01:11:12):
Well, what was the research that you did? I'm putting
you on the spot here, but you looked into the availability,
So who debuted after the draft? Right?

Speaker 2 (01:11:22):
Like?

Speaker 3 (01:11:23):
How many arms how many hitters and how that your
hair from past years and our stupid Bridge League's kind
of ruined our FYPD research, right, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:11:31):
I think so? For me, Yeah, I think definitely. I
know I don't have it in front of me, and
I don't remember what the breakdown was, but we I
was looking at that with Clegg and sharing some of
the info, and I was just tackling all the late
appearances and innings pitched, the number of draftees that got
some full season run from like last year to this year.
There was I think a few less players on both sides,

(01:11:54):
but not by much. At least on the hitter side.
It wasn't by much. I think the pitchers were a
little bit more signific as far as just number of players,
but the played appearances and the innings pitched took a
significant cut from last season, so that less innings and
less at bats to watch these guys this year. And
I think too, just the player pool, there weren't as
many on the bat side as many guys that impressed

(01:12:16):
me as last as last year. You know we were
talking about there wasn't really like Will Simpson or Jonathan
Long types like we were getting into you know that really.

Speaker 3 (01:12:25):
Maybe they were not getting suckered into the Trevor Warner
of this year.

Speaker 2 (01:12:28):
Then yeah, perhaps perhaps it's a good thing too. Like
last year, I think I put out there and cut
up videos what was like forty bats that caught my attention,
you know, this year, I think there was maybe like
twenty that I would have done something like that, similar
to you know, but yeah, I don't know who you've
been taking.

Speaker 3 (01:12:45):
Well, we talked a little bit about this when we
weren't recording, But I really haven't taken many first year
players in these drafts because my drafts tend to be
the supplemental version, not a strict FYPD. That doesn't mean
like there are still some that late in the draft.
I found myself gearing towards and playing a couple of

(01:13:06):
different namesake type teams where you get one pick automatically
just by virtue of your team. So I have a
couple of shares of THEO Gillan because of that, not
because I liked him in particular. I'm just the Rays,
and so I've got got a couple of THEO Gillen shares.
As far as like names that I actually took, I

(01:13:27):
took one share of Cole Mathis in a power focus league.
That's Cubs supposed to see the third render, fourth render
for them.

Speaker 2 (01:13:35):
I believe third y.

Speaker 3 (01:13:36):
I think that's right, just as like Upside power Bat.
Watched a little bit of the tape. I think this
was a Jeff Ponce he kind of stuffed in the
Baseball America FYPD list and fit.

Speaker 2 (01:13:47):
He took Mathis in a draft that was in with
him in.

Speaker 3 (01:13:49):
At first, I thought that was a Punce. I might
have heard him talking about him on one of one
of his podcasts too. Think he was a bit of
a Punce target. And I, you know, targeted a bunch
of these outfielders in like the late ranges in a draft,
and A had trouble separating them from each other. So

(01:14:10):
Zach Erhard for the Red Sox, Mike Sirota drafted by
the Reds traded to the Dodgers, Carter Frederick Royals drafty,
Joseph Sullivan Astro's drafty. And there was one other in
this group that I was looking at, Casey Sock for
the White Sox. Those like five outfielders, I was like
stacking them up with like the early first round or

(01:14:33):
the mid to late first round guys of Caldwell, Tibbs, Honeycut,
even Walt Schmidt and Bene, all of them sort of
different in some ways. But I was really struggling to
see why people so preferred benj Walschmidt, TIBs to that
to the lower grouping, And I ended up taking Joseph

(01:14:53):
Sullivan because I think he hits the ball pretty hard,
showed some good plate skills, like he could a walk,
and the knock on him is maybe that he hits
the ball in the ground a bit too much, but
it seemed playable to me. It was like a forty
percent range in his first taste of pro ball. So
I went with Sullivan and he was one of the
kind of later round guys and intrigued by it, like

(01:15:14):
he's showed some stuff. His left handed stroke looked pretty
nice to me. So and that the Astros really do
have a knack for taking guys that other people underrate
and turning them into useful big leaders. So I wonder
if they've done something like that targeting.

Speaker 2 (01:15:27):
They like hard hit data guys.

Speaker 3 (01:15:31):
So Sullivan's a guy that I've been I've been into.

Speaker 2 (01:15:34):
He's curious to me. I have to say I know
a ton about him, but I know he's getting lauded
for for this, you know, potential power and stuff like that.
But like, I think his home run high watermark in
college was like fifteen, yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:15:47):
Which is still decent. I mean, it's not like the
crazy SEC numbers that some of the guys have put up,
but in that grouping was better than Sock, who's like
high water mark was like twelve or something and some
of the other so there's some power in there. I
don't think he hit one after he was drafted. I
don't have his numbers in front of me, but I think.
But he also didn't have a ton of played appearances either.

Speaker 2 (01:16:07):
Right, Sarona, what's your take on? Serona? Don't I don't
really have much of opinion. I haven't paid much attention.

Speaker 3 (01:16:13):
So this was a little bit of like the Orlando
deal for you. I think like he was talked about
coming into this year as a mid major kind of
cold weather performer that might sneak into the top ten
with kind of what he had done as an underclassman,
and then underwhelmed. I think, had some injuries, didn't perform

(01:16:35):
quite as well. This I took him in one draft
pretty late. This was my and i'll only fourteen teamer,
so you know, plays like almost like a thirty teamer.
But I felt like the NL portion was much shallower
as I was stacking it up, like for those either
play in deep NL or ale onlies. So I didn't
love the pick, Like wasn't super enamored by Seroda or anything.

(01:16:57):
It's more that sometimes down draft year for a cold
weather mid major guy has like outside impact, but maybe
he bounces back in pro ball and shows the skills
that I think were like pretty well rounded, like that
he had some power, had some hit, had some speed,
like kind of a do everything outfielder, and that the
Dodgers also liked him in trade, and so that was

(01:17:20):
maybe another appeal to authority here of like hey, if
those smart guys liked him, maybe they're seeing the potential
to get back to that kind of skill set. So
I don't know, I don't have a lot of conviction
about this one, Like this is one that it was more,
hey he slipped, maybe there was something going on and
let's bet on a bounce back.

Speaker 2 (01:17:38):
I already mentioned Orlando. I got him in every draft,
but I could there was one that I just didn't
have a high enough pick. I didn't pick the like
the third round of a large league or something like that.
Anytime I've had a real high pick and couldn't trade it,
I took Chase Burns. I got two shares of Chase Burns.
I've gotten Griffin Burkholder twice and I think way later

(01:18:01):
than I imagined, like in the thirties, So I thought that
was a good deal. I don't know if you watched
late and.

Speaker 3 (01:18:09):
I watched a bit of him, but he went pretty
late in the show draft, didn't he like. I was
a little surprised he wasn't taking it.

Speaker 2 (01:18:14):
And again before yeah, I got one share of JD. Dix,
good look and switch hitter from Wisconsin. I like quite
a bit, and I do buy that if it were
not for a shoulder injury his senior year high schools,
that's a first round sort of talent. I do buy
that narrative. You got to share Jared Thomas fairly late.
I think that was in my true first year player draft.

(01:18:36):
I think that was my last pick. Got a share
of Trey Gregory Alford as the last pick in one
of these drafts. We've talked about him a little bit
I think before right, but from out of here in Colorado, Yep.
It was a fast riser his senior year high school.
And you know, hopefully his developmental path can look something
like Cayden Dana and get that trade value up there

(01:18:57):
and I will send you and then by one league
that we don't have prospect pickups in, which is really
makes for a really fun draft too. Write I mean
the first round we had Campbell and Made and stuff
like it makes for a loaded first round. But I'm
just super interested in Conrad Cason, who I think what

(01:19:20):
the Red Sox took in the eighth round if I
remember right, highly rated prap player. I think Perfect Game
has had him in their top ten. I think the
tricky part with him is you don't really know what
he's gonna be. He's drafted as a two way player.
I had a big arm. The bat really came on
his senior year of high school. I kind of like
the landing spot for a bat with the Red Sox

(01:19:43):
these days with the stuff that they're doing increasing bat
speed and things like that. But I thought, in this format,
I think it was my last pick, it's going to
force me to hang on to him right, can't drop him,
can't pick anybody out. So I snagged the share there
just I will be forced to be married to him
for a little while and see what happens. But like,
I don't know, just an interesting guy, can throw hard,

(01:20:03):
can run, can hit. I don't know. I'll see what happens.

Speaker 3 (01:20:06):
Well, Cason made it into a real solid big leaguer
in my In one of my OTP leagues, it was
my he was my utility backup infielder for like his
whole controllable seasons, and not because he wasn't good. I
just ended up having like absolute studs all around the
infield and he could play all for infield positions, so
like anytime anybody needed a rest, he was the backup

(01:20:28):
for everybody, and he was super useful, like really really
good player. So if OTP is to be believed, then
there's a real shot that he's a big league regular.

Speaker 2 (01:20:36):
Any first year of players that you have not gotten
yet that you really wish that you had to share of, no, I.

Speaker 3 (01:20:43):
Mean, like I like we talked about right at the
after the draft last year, I think Bizana was the
best guy you know, non Rokie division in the draft.
I think that that's still true, you know, after all
the cutting things up, after everything, I still think I
like him the best. I will a little surprised that
his strikeout rate ticked up to what it did, but
everything else looked like the guy that I got to

(01:21:04):
see live a couple of times, like that dude really
really can rake. So that was still be the guy
that I would take first if it was just the
true draft eligible guys. A couple other guys that I like.
Oh the one other guy I didn't mention that I
took late in a draft was Wyatt Sandford. He's seems
somewhat divisive.

Speaker 2 (01:21:22):
I know.

Speaker 3 (01:21:23):
I asked Jeff Ponts about him in the Dynasty dug
at Discord, and Jeff said that he just really didn't
think the bat was going to be a carrying tool
and maybe he sticks it short, maybe not. So I
think he was down on him a bit for fantasy,
just like weren't fantasy friendly tools there, and that might
be true. I have only seen a bit of the
high school tape that we've seen, but I know other
folks have ranked him as like a top thirty ish

(01:21:44):
kind of guy. So where I got him at like
ninety something. I was like, Okay, fine, I'll snag him there.

Speaker 2 (01:21:50):
I got a few more drafts left, maybe it'll happen.
But I would kind of like a share of Trey's
Savage or yes and didche or however.

Speaker 3 (01:21:58):
Yeah, he's one then I think looks interesting. I watched
a bit of him. And the other one that I
was gonna mention in the same breath was Hagan Smith. Like,
I think Hagan Smith looks top here pitcher material to me,
Like I love what he did in college, and so
I think his slider is ridiculous. So I was a
big fan of and I liked you Yes Savage as well.

Speaker 2 (01:22:19):
But I feel like I just kind of one of
our guys, like it's gonna have a lot of offerings,
gonna mix it up, well, maybe some of all parts
you know better sort of guy.

Speaker 3 (01:22:29):
Yeah. I also the other the only other arm that
I took was Ryan for Kucci. He said, Ryan for
couci Astro's arm was injured. Good traits on the fastball
and slider. I mean kind of was like Johnny right
hinder to me, but then had TJ and fell and
so maybe it's like actually first round talent and I
just sit on him for a year and see if

(01:22:50):
it comes back in a good development. Pitching organization didn't
feel strongly about it. He's likely cutable for me at
some point. I actually, in that draft took him and
then immediately regretted it because there were like four other
guys that weren't on my Like I had farther down
on my pref list and I was just on my
phone doing something else. I was like, oh, yeah, he's
near the top, Like we'll take an arm here, And

(01:23:12):
in retrospect, wish I would have taken some other guys,
but I ended up with a sheriff for Couccie, and
I'm intrigued. I'll also shout out again. I know we've
talked about him before, but Nick Brink and Sam Sturr,
my two buddies from University of Portland. Brink was the
only of the two that got into a game last year,
but it wasn't televised and it was a bad kind
of like inning and two thirds or whatever. Outing But Brink,

(01:23:33):
I just love his stuff and his pitch ability and
his competitiveness, and he's a cerebral pitcher, but like he's
still got a really great stuff. I think he's going
to be a fun one to watch this year. And
Stir he's like, could be up to ninety eight ninety
nine on the fastball, we'll see, you know, the protein
might even unlock that that extra couple of ticks. Like
it's impressive stuff and could be really a really good

(01:23:56):
slider cutter combo too. So he's one that could be
really really fun. The command isn't as good with Stir,
but the arm talent or the like, the velocity and
pitch shapes are maybe a touch better than Brink. But Brink,
I just think it's a fantastic pitcher. So I'd watch
those two. I didn't draft either again, I think neither
are rostered more than zero or one percent, but definitely
put them on some watch lists and try and watch

(01:24:18):
some of their early starts. If they're chopping up as
advanced college arms. I could see both moving pretty quickly.
And you like them both a lot. We've seen a
lot of like pretty great pitchers come out of the
West Coast Conference in the last few years and are
reigning alsy young winner. Just he's a Seattle you guy,
so Northwest guy. So anyway, these kinds of college Armsnesser

(01:24:39):
Jerman also Seattle you one of our very favorite B
side arms. So I could see these guys following that
in that footsteps because as far as like their performance
in college goes, these guys were better than those guys.

Speaker 2 (01:24:50):
So the one guy I haven't gotten the shareff yet
that I would like to, but I'm not too stressed
about it because nobody seems to be a fan. But uh,
Devin Fitzgerald of the Rangers. I know mentioned him in
the discord. But if there's like kind of a prep
bat B sider for me, it would be him right now.
I don't think he deserves to be a B sider,
But like I said, if you want like a JD.

(01:25:11):
Dick sort of switch hitter, athletic strong infield, I don't know,
maybe you can stick a short stop. I don't think
fitzgerald is is much different of a play than JD. Dick's.
Maybe a little bit smaller, But I know the Rangers
liked him a lot and prioritized him and popped him
in the fifth round and got him signed. And other
than Dan being dickhead, Dan.

Speaker 3 (01:25:32):
I was funny.

Speaker 2 (01:25:34):
Else You're welcome, Yeah, you guys.

Speaker 3 (01:25:38):
I was complicit in that one, and he specifically said,
come on, let me snipe handy here, and I was like,
all right, I mean whatever.

Speaker 2 (01:25:45):
He likes to play us against each other like that, Yeah,
all in good fun, all and good.

Speaker 3 (01:25:49):
Yeah, I mean our other buddy, Maddy Backpack just took
a pick in our in our the show draft. Do
we want to rip that pick apart? And it was
Harlan and Dodgers like fourth rounder Chase Harden.

Speaker 2 (01:26:02):
He loves Dodgers, doesn't he?

Speaker 3 (01:26:03):
Yeap who doesn't? They all turn out so well?

Speaker 2 (01:26:06):
Yeah, hall of famers, all of them. All right, match,
we wrap this one up.

Speaker 3 (01:26:09):
Yeah, let's do it, all right? Chatting with you again,
my dude, this was awesome.

Speaker 2 (01:26:13):
Yeah, dude, Yeah, appreciate it. We'll call that episode forty
eight of the Prospect B Side Podcast. You can follow
me along on Twitter at Pitching Specs. You can follow
me on Blue Sky at Muddy Looks. I know it's
been a minute since I've dropped some videos and we've
recorded and stuff like that, but I will say I
have not been lacking on my homework. Got some things

(01:26:35):
in the works and just trying to compile some videos
and we have to share that Hopefully I'll get to
share that with folks at some point in the future here.
But yeah, well I think we'll let Chicago Farmer take
us out and be well, we'll talk to you next time.

Speaker 3 (01:26:50):
Bye, bab miles an hour riding too is he You
have them down first, but the.

Speaker 1 (01:27:00):
Bone in his face, and on the very next pitch
he up and stole second face with gradest speed. He
wasn't born, but he had dird yes uniforn