December 13, 2025 • 35 mins
In this episode, we break down a housing market that feels like it’s running on two completely different laws of physics at the same time. On one side: record-smashing luxury deals, where scarcity, design pedigree, privacy, and the sheer speed of capital keep prices soaring—largely untouched by interest rates or everyday economic anxiety. On the other: millions of would-be homeowners trapped in a punishing affordability crisis, where even small shifts in borrowing costs can slam the door shut. We start at the very top of the market with a tour of headline-grabbing listings and sales that show how “ultra-luxury” has become its own insulated economy. From a $37.5M Beverly Hills penthouse built like a fortress of discretion—private elevator, private garage, and even a building design that avoids common corridors—to Aspen’s $44.5M “Glass House,” where architecture and nature are fused into a single high-end asset. We also look at the scale of wealth expressed through land, including a $46.5M West Texas ranch spanning nearly 30,000 acres with livestock, equipment, water rights, and mineral rights included—essentially a turnkey ecosystem. And we close the luxury sweep with a European estate outside Verona tied to royalty, blending history, vineyards, modern amenities, and income-generation into one rare portfolio. But the core of the episode is the gap between the Fed and your mortgage. We explain why a quarter-point cut to the federal funds rate doesn’t automatically bring mortgage relief, and how 30-year rates can rise even when the Fed moves in the opposite direction. The key lies in long-term bond markets, inflation expectations, and why the 10-year Treasury yield matters more to your mortgage than the overnight rate between banks. From there, we confront the affordability reality: in 2025, renting is cheaper than buying in every one of the 50 largest U.S. metros, and the gap has widened in most of them. We explore how that changes the meaning of homeownership itself—turning it from a “normal” wealth-building step into something that increasingly resembles a luxury product. We also highlight where movement is still happening, with “healthy churn” in more affordable, inventory-rich markets like Kansas City, San Antonio, and Indianapolis, even as high-cost coastal markets remain locked up by “golden handcuffs.” The episode also dives into the powerful role of institutions and policy. We discuss Apple’s billion-dollar shift from leasing to owning office and lab space in Cupertino, what that signals about long-term strategy, and how it can reshape a city’s economic ecosystem. Then we pivot to solutions and experiments—like major affordable housing developments in New York, office-to-housing conversions in St. Paul, and new construction approvals aimed at easing pressure in places that haven’t built enough for decades. Finally, we examine the risks hiding in the fine print: a major lawsuit targeting new-home sales and mortgage estimates, the real-world shock of updated property taxes after escrow analyses, and what it means for first-time buyers trying to budget in an unpredictable environment. We end with a surprising but practical point: sometimes the value of your home isn’t decided inside the walls at all—it’s shaped by neighbors, curb appeal, and the forces outside your control. Understanding those forces is becoming the first step in protecting your biggest investment heading into 2026 and beyond.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
We're looking at a market right now that just doesn't
really make sense, does it?
Speaker 2 (00:05):
On the traditional way.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Now it feels like you have two completely separate universes
just operating in parallel.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
That's a perfect way to put it.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
On one side, you've got these atronomical record breaking deals happening.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Right symbols of this hyper liquidity where Wells just seems
totally insulated from any kind of global instability.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
And then on the other side, well, it's the vast
majority of people, isn't it, aspiring homeowners who are just
stuck in this relentless affordability crisis.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Absolutely, and every metric seems to be tilting further and
further away from them. It's a true market of extremes,
and you can feel that tension.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
So the high end is just completely detached completely.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
It's running on its own economy. It's driven by scarcity,
by design, pedigree, the sheer speed of capital has nothing
to do with the interest rate sensitivity that is just
suffocating everyone else.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
And we're going to unpack that today. We're going to
dive into some of the most spectacular sales and some
pretty interesting celebrity transfers.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
And then we have to pigot hard to the corporate side.
Some big strategic moves are happening there that tell us
a lot about long term confidence.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
And we have to spend a lot of time on
the mortgage environment because that seems to be the biggest
point of confusion.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
It really is that disconnect with the federal reserves actions is,
I think, what's confusing for so many people right now.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Okay, so let's set the stage there. The FED recently
lowered the federal funds rate by what a quarter of
a point, yes.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Zero point two five percent. But here's the kicker. The
average long term mortgage rate actually ticked up up, up.
It's nearing a three month high, hovering around six point
two to two to six point three zero percent, And
that just fuels this massive uncertainty.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
So we need to clarify why a FED rate cut,
which you'd think would help, doesn't automatically mean relief if
you're trying to buy a home with a thirty year mortgage.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Exactly. It tells us a lot about what investors are
expecting for inflation and the economy long term.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
All right, let's start the very top, the spectacular end
of the market, where the price tags they look more
like a country's GDP than a housing costs.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Let's do it.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
We're kicking things off in Beverly Hills a place called
the Rosewood Residences penthouse f The price tag is thirty
seven and a half million dollars.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Yeah, and this isn't just, you know, a fancy apartment
the way is described, it sounds more like a private
fortress built for absolute comfort.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
A fortress is a good word for it. It's a
corner duplex penthouse, one of only four top floor units
in the entire building.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
The scale is just immense. We're talking over six thousand
square feet of interior.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
Space, which is already huge.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
It's massive. But the real show stopper, the thing that
justifies the price, is the private rooftop terrace. It's almost
twenty five hundred square feet.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
So the outdoor space is the size of a very.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Large house exactly. And it's not just an empty deck.
It has its own private plunge pool, a plunge pool,
a spa, a full outdoor kitchen, a wet bar. You're
not buying an apartment, You're buying a customized entertain resort
with these sweeping views over the whole.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
City and beyond just the amenities. It's the exclusivity that's
really being sold here, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
That's the core of it. The whole building, which was
designed by Thomas Jewel Hansen, is built for discretion. Each
of those penthouses has its own private elevator.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
So you never have to see anyone else you.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Don't, and each owner gets their own enclosed private garage.
But the most critical detail is that the building was
designed with no corridors.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
No corridors, what does that even mean?
Speaker 2 (03:30):
It means they've eliminated all the common spaces where you
might run into your neighbors. It maximizes privacy, maximizes security,
which for this level of buyer is just non negotiable.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
And the materials. This tells you it's not just a
local construction project. This is a global product.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
It's a globally curated asset. When you see the names
attached Lisa Coke for the interiors, Greek marble, German limestone
on the facade, custom Italian millwork from Moultenancy, it signals
that the buyer isn't just acquiring California real estate.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
They're buying something that's been reviewed and approved by an
international class of design exactly.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
It's an international peer reviewed asset. It's designed to hold
its value no matter what the local market is doing,
because it appeals to a global class of wealthy individuals
who want that scarcity, that pedigree.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
That makes sense. Okay, speaking of global shifts, let's talk
about Kaya Gerber, the model and actress, is listing her
Soho loft.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Yes, and this is a clear example of a cross
country pivot. She's trading that high density New York City
living for full time California convenience.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
She bought this loft on Mercer Street for what just
under four million back in twenty eighteen, that's right.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Three point nine to five million dollars, and she invested
heavily in it. She personally oversaw a big renovation.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
What does she do?
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Put in new white oak floors throughout and a really
high end chef's kitchen. We're talking both op designed, sub
zero gagnew Mela appliances, top of the line.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Okay. So she sinks a ton of money into this
renovation and then she listed almost immediately. The listing price
is five point seventy nine million dollars.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
It is The broker's note said it has barely been
lived in because she relocated to California full time for work.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
So is that a guaranteed return on her investment in
a place like Soho or is she taking a risk here?
You over improving for a market that might be cooling
a bit.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
That's the big question. It's a real test case. If
it sells near that asking price, it shows that a
really meticulously renovated Soho property can still unlock immediate equity.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
But if it just sits there, If it.
Speaker 2 (05:33):
Sits, it proves that even the best renovations can't totally
insulate an asset from the broader market pressures. It'll be
a really interesting one to watch.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
All right, from strategic taste to well a cautionary tale
about taste. Let's go to Calabasas, John Stamos's former estate.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
Oh, this is a perfect lesson in the financial risks
of extreme over customization.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
The current owners, Justin and Candice Aguilera, they listed it
for thirteen million. Now it's been slashed down to seven
and a quarter.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
A huge cut, and it's all because of what they
did to the inside. They bought the Mediterranean style home
and spent upwards of three million dollars renovating the.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
Interiors, and the result was not well received.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
To put it mildly, it was famously described on social
media as tackyaf and that nickname just stuck.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
I remember the details, weren't there gold clad toilets.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
Gold clad toilets. Yes, And this incredibly intense book matched
Panna marble all over the main living space.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
It's very specific look.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
It was an attempt at maximalist opulence that just completely
fell flat. The shiny, black, white and gold aesthetic alienated
the kind of buyer who's looking in that price range.
They typically want something more subdued, more timeless.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
I think even John Stamos commented on it.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
He did. He felt they had to go online and
clarify that he sold the house years ago before it was,
in his words, redecorated.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
So that five point seventy five million dollar price cut
is basically the market telling the owners that they taste
destroyed value instead of adding it.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
It's an expensive lesson, Yeah, a very expensive lesson in
appealing to the broadest possible pool of buyers.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Okay, let's leave the questionable taste of la behind and
head for the mountains Aspen, Colorado. We have something called
the Glasshouse listed for forty four point five million dollars.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
This is Aspen's version of luxury immersion. The whole concept
is about integrating with nature.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
The seller Elizabeth Stanley, she's the broker and the designer.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Right.
Speaker 1 (07:27):
She built it herself.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
She did. She custom built this on a ten point
six acre lot in a really coveted area, Castle Creek
Valley Ranch. Her whole mission was to create a house
that felt immersed in the mountains.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
But it's still close to town.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
That's the key. It's only eight minutes from downtown Aspen,
so you get the seclusion without the isolation.
Speaker 1 (07:46):
So what's the design choice that justifies that immense price tag.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
It's this contrast between the very modern structure and the
rustic warmth In side. It's a low profile, boxy, modern design,
dark metal stone. But inside it's all wood, reclaimed wood floors,
wood on the walls and ceilings, a massive granite fireplace.
But the defining feature is the use of glass walls
everywhere the Glasshouse exactly. It literally dissolves the boundary between
(08:12):
inside and out. It floods the space with light and views.
You're not just buying the structure you're buying the mountains.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
And that desire for private mountain development brings us right
to a local controversy and Aspen the Kino Gulch cabin.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Yes, this is a perfect microcosm of the political friction
you see in these resort towns.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
It's about a company Cloud Ten Aspen LLC that wants
to build a pretty modest cabin, only a thousand square.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
Feet, right, but it's on Aspen Mountain. And this is
where you get the eternal struggle balancing private property rights
with preserving public goods, especially in what they call rural
and remote areas.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
The main issue was access right. They needed to cross
county land to get utilities and erode to the property.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
That was the crux of the negotiation. What does the
public get in return for granting that access.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
And what was the deal?
Speaker 2 (09:01):
The developer agreed to two things. First, a conservation easeman
on the land around the cabin, which restricts any future development.
And second, they guaranteed public access along a county maintained
trail that crosses through their property.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
But not everyone on the County Commission was happy about it.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
No Commissioner Greg Poshman cast a protest vote His argument
was all about precedent.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
He was worried this would open the floodgates exactly.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
He argued against developing these rural and remote areas for
what he saw as a very limited public return. He
cited the cost to wildlife habitat and the danger of
setting a precedent for other entrepreneurs, as he put it,
to exploit these preserved areas for private gain.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
But the plan was approved with some pretty strict conditions
I understand.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
Very strict under the Scenic Covenant. The cabin has to
use earth tone colors, it has to have a low profile,
and critically, it has to be invisible from major roads.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
So it tries to solve the visual problem.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
It does. But Poshman's point about habitat disruption and just
the general encroachment on wildern this that remains central to
the whole debate in Aspen about growth versus preservation.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
All right, let's shift gears completely from the intense scrutiny
of a small cabin in Colorado to the sheer, mind
boggling scale of West Texas. The y Bar ranch.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Yes listed for forty six point five million dollars. And
this isn't just luxury living. This is acquiring an entire
self sustaining ecosystem.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
The scale is almost impossible to comprehend. Nearly thirty thousand
deeded acres.
Speaker 2 (10:29):
In the Big Bend region right near the National and
state parks. The asking price works out to about sixteen
hundred dollars an acre, which is pretty competitive for land
of that size and quality.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
And the key detail here is that the sale is
all inclusive.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
That's what makes it exceptional. The livestock, all the equipment,
the water rights, the mineral rights, it's all part of
that forty six point five million dollar price. You buy
the ranch, you are buying the entire operation, turnkey.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
It's been in the same family since the early sixties.
Why is a huge legacy property like this coming on
the market now.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
It's a classic scenario for these big family ranches generational transition.
The listing agent confirmed there are several beneficiaries.
Speaker 1 (11:09):
Some of whom use it, some who don't.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
Exactly, and when ownership gets fragmented across the generation, the
simplest Ferris solution is often just to liquidate the asset
and divide the proceeds.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
And the logistics of managing water on thirty thousand acres
in West Texas must be staggering.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
It's a highly engineered system. They have twenty eight wells
powered by a mix of windmills, solar panels, and electric pumps,
all feeding this vast network of pipelines and troughs for
the cattle.
Speaker 1 (11:35):
But it's not just a cattle operation anymore.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
No, they've really enhanced its recreational value. It's now prime
hunting territory for elk and mule deer, and it's also
designated for stargazing.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
From immense acreage to intense high speed luxury. In Dallas,
the market there just saw a massive non disclosed sale
of a mega mansion in Highland Park.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
This is a perfect example of how the top of
the Texas market operates. It's all under a cloak of
non disclosure. We don't know the final price, but is
asking thirty two point five million. And the key here
was the build quality, uncompromising commitment to quality. This mansion
is almost nineteen thousand square feet and it took five
years to build. The owners and designers took multiple trips
(12:16):
to Europe just to source materials.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
Five years. What kind of details demand that much time?
Speaker 2 (12:22):
We're talking about things you just can't buy off the shelf.
The floors are reclaimed limestone that they imported directly from
a French chateau.
Speaker 1 (12:29):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
Hardware and fixtures were sourced from Paris. And the most
incredible detail, the ceiling dome in the foyer, is twenty
four carrot gold leaf.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Okay, that's a different level.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
It's a different level. The buyers were apparently drawn to
the fact that it sits on a full acre, which
is incredibly rare in Hellam Park, and the design just
perfectly replicated an authentic Italian villa.
Speaker 1 (12:49):
And this wasn't just a one off sale. There was
a rapid fire, twenty four hour blitz of two other
high end sales.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
Right totaling nearly twenty four million dollars. And what this
signals is that the ten million plus segment in Dallas
is not lagging. It's thriving on velocity.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
So if the product is perfect and the privacy is guaranteed.
Speaker 2 (13:09):
These homes move almost instantly. Dallas continues to be this
crucial magnet for heighth net worth individuals.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
Finally, we're going to cap this luxury tour with a
literal piece of history, a European castle in Italy, Villa
sant Andrea.
Speaker 2 (13:23):
This is next level, a seventy two acre estate outside Verona,
listed by a member of the Liechtenstein royal family.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
The price is undisclosed.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
Undisclosed, but the estimates put it north of thirty million euros,
so potentially close to forty one million dollars. The history
is just breathtaking. The property includes an eleventh century former
monastery and a fortified castle.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
And like the Texas Ranch, it's not just a home.
It's a working income generating operation.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
That's the key. It's a working estate. It has vineyards
that produce high quality Merlau and Cabernet, plus olive groves.
Princess Astro von Liechtenstein, who is also a CEO of
a luxury furniture company, spent millions renovating and modernizing the property.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
So it's fully updated.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
Completely, two helicopter pads, two pools. It's ready for a
modern ultra wealthy buyer. You're buying a diversified portfolio, history, agriculture,
and residence all in one.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
Okay, after seeing deals that confirm the ultra wealthy are
just completely insulated, we have to swing back hard to
the reality facing most Americans.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
Yes, the stark crisis of affordability, and the data you've
pulled is pretty grim.
Speaker 1 (14:29):
Renting is now unequivocally cheaper than earning a home everywhere.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
This is one of the most devastating structural changes we've
seen in the US housing market in decades. The analysis
is unambiguous. Renting is cheaper than paying a mortgage in
all fifty of the largest US metros in twenty twenty five,
all of them.
Speaker 1 (14:44):
That's just a shocking statistic.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
And what's more concerning is that the cost difference, that
gap between renting and owning has actually gotten wider in
thirty eight of those metros since just last year. It's
a compounding problem.
Speaker 1 (14:57):
It fundamentally changes what home ownership be is.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
It forces us to admit that home ownership itself has
become a luxury item. It's not a standard economic stepping
stone anymore.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
So how do we measure that.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
You have to look at the share of available homes
a typical household can actually afford in any given market,
and that metric is damming. In many places, a typical
household can only afford twenty to thirty percent of the
homes for sale.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
So seventy five percent or more, or just completely.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Out of reach, completely out of reach. If three quarters
of the inventory is off limits, the market has basically
split into two functions.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
An asset class for the wealthy and just shelter for
everyone else.
Speaker 2 (15:37):
That's the perfect way to frame it. Housing is no
longer primarily shelter. It's capital, and if you try to
access shelter, you're now locked in this intense competition for
that tiny slice of affordable homes, which just drives prices
up even more in that tier.
Speaker 1 (15:51):
And Miami is the prime example of this acceleration.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
The most glaring median prices for condos and single family
homes there are up over eight eighty percent since the
pandemic started, driven by that huge influx of wealth.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
But despite all this, people are still moving, which brings
us to this idea of the great real estate shuffle
which cities are seeing the most turnover.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
This mobility metric is a crucial counterpoint to the doom
and gloom narrative. The analysis looked at the fifty largest
metros and the places with the highest turnover the most
sales per one thousand housing units were Kansas City, San Antonio,
and Indianapolis.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
So the heartland and Texas. Why there?
Speaker 2 (16:31):
It comes down to two simple things, relative affordability and inventory.
In Kansas City, the median list prices three hundred and
eighty thousand. In San Antonio it's even lower, three hundred
and twenty nine thousand.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
So people can actually qualify for a loan and make
a move right.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
And Texas in particular is benefiting hugely from a ton
of new construction, which adds to the inventory.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
And this is important. This mobility isn't panic selling, No.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
It's positive churn. It's people relocating for jobs or using
equity they've built up to find more space. It shows
that those local markets are actually functioning the way they're supposed.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
To, whereas the coasts are paralyzed. People are golden handcuffed
to their low rates exactly.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
But even within a locked up place like New York City,
you see these little micro markets. Staten Island, for example,
saw over twenty four hundred sales in twenty twenty five,
which is consistent with the year before.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
And the average sale price there is still over seven
hundred thousand dollars.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
It is, but the activity is centered in neighborhoods like
Great kills in Eltingville, where people are looking for single
family homes with yards. It's a less dense option within
the city. And even Staten Island has a luxury component.
They just had their highest sale ever eight point five
million on Todd Hill.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
Let's shift from residential movement to massive corporate strategy. Apple's
quiet spending spree in Kupertino. They're passed a billion dollars
since June.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
This is more than just a real estate deal. It's
a profound strategic shift in how Apple sees its physical footprint.
They've acquired over one and a half million square feet
of office in lab space.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
And the key is these are properties they were already leasing, many.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
Of them, yes, in some cases for nearly a decade.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
Most of big tech is trimming their office space or
at least staying flexible with hybrid work. Why is Apple
going in the opposite direction and committing over a billion
dollars to owning these buildings.
Speaker 2 (18:16):
It's a clear signal about their commitment to the area
and the nature of their work. Moving from leasing to
owning is about three things for them, Okay. First, tighter
control over design and amenities so they can tailor spaces
for very specific sensitive R and D labs. Second, IP security,
they need absolute control over the physical environment to protect
(18:38):
their secrets. And third, long term cost control. They're betting
that the cost of capital now is worth having total
physical command of their campus forever. It's a fundamental belief
in the future of physical work.
Speaker 1 (18:50):
Can you break down the scale of that billion dollar investment?
Speaker 2 (18:53):
I mean we're talking huge institutional acquisitions. Yeah, there's the
three hundred and sixty five million dollars Matilda Campus of
three hundred and fifty million dollar pair of buildings, the
one hundred and sixty six million dollar Coupertino Gateway.
Speaker 1 (19:05):
Complex, and the latest one.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
The latest is two buildings on Stevens Creek Boulevard for
two hundred and sixteen million dollars and they paid cash
for that one.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
Paying two hundred and sixteen million in cash. What does
this mean for the city of Coupertino.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
It means a significant reduction in available office space for
anyone else. It could make the area less attractive for
startups or smaller firms. Apple's dominance is now even more solidified,
forcing the city to plant its future tax revenue zoning
almost entirely around the needs of one massive institution.
Speaker 1 (19:36):
From tech giants to community revitalization. Let's look at the
La Austra development in Manhattan.
Speaker 2 (19:42):
This is a fantastic model for how cities can use
public land for social good. It's a creative public private
partnership focused entirely on deep affordability, two towers twenty five
and fifteen stories on a vacant waterfront site, and it's.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
Creating over six hundred of feundable.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
Homes, six hundred plus homes specific for low income New
Yorkers and seniors. But it's so much more than just housing.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
They've bundled in all these community assets.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Absolutely, the goal is to build a whole community hub.
There's a world class marine science and STEM center, dedicated
space for mental health services, and a huge indoor outdoor
soccer field, so.
Speaker 1 (20:17):
It benefits the whole neighborhood, not just the residents.
Speaker 2 (20:19):
That's the idea. And given that it's on the waterfront,
climate resiliency is a huge part of the design, so
the building itself is elevated to mitigate future flood risks.
It also has rooftop solar arrays, microwater turbines, even algae
panels for energy production. It's designed to be highly resilient
and less dependent on the grid.
Speaker 1 (20:40):
And we're seeing more affordable housing open up nearby in
Queens too.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Yes, the lottery for Willett's Point Commons has studios starting
at four hundred and eighty six dollars a month. That's
almost unheard of in New York.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
And these are high quality buildings.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
They're aiming for Lead Gold certification, which is a really
high standard for sustainable efficient design. It shows a real
commitment to long term quality, even for deeply affordable housing.
Speaker 1 (21:03):
Let's look at how other cities are revitalizing their downtowns.
Saint Paul, Minnesota, is tackling its empty office space problem.
Speaker 2 (21:10):
They're being very proactive. The Saint Paul Downtown Development Corporation
just bought two vacant buildings, the Empire Building and Endicotta Arcade,
for under a million.
Speaker 1 (21:22):
Dollars and the plan is to convert them.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
Yes, convert under used office space into housing and retail.
It's about activating a key block and recognizing that downtowns
need residents and foot traffic to survive now, not just
nine to five office workers.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
We're also seeing significant new housing inventory coming to Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
The Hershey West End Development got approval for a two
hundred and forty five acre project. It's going to have
about two hundred and fifty four sale homes in townhouses.
Speaker 1 (21:51):
And that's a big deal for that community.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
It's expected to be the most significant new housing contribution
there in over thirty years. Even two hundred and fifty
units can make a huge difference in relieving local price
pressure and quickly.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
Cincinnati is also seeing some targeted redevelopment.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
Yes, a vacant mixed use building on West Court Street
was acquired for one point eight four million. It's another
positive sign of commitment to revitalizing these downtown entertainment corridors
and bringing dormant buildings back to life.
Speaker 1 (22:17):
All right, let's get into the harsh realities of financing
that interest rate environment. So to recap, the FED cuts
the federal funds rate by a quarter point, but the
average mortgage rate goes up to around six point three percent.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (22:30):
This feels like proof that the market has just lost
faith in the Fed's ability to control long term lending costs?
Is that what's happening.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
It's not so much a loss of faith as it
is the market reasserting financial logic. The public often misunderstands
this mechanism. The FED funds rate controls very short term borrowing.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
Like overnight loans between banks exactly.
Speaker 2 (22:52):
But mortgage rates are tied to the ten year treasury yield.
Speaker 1 (22:54):
So explain that difference. Why is the ten year treasury
yield what matters for my mortgage?
Speaker 2 (23:00):
Because the ten year treasury yield is all about investor
expectations for long term economic growth and crucially, inflation.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
So the market is looking further down the road than
the Fed's immediate action.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
Precisely, when the Fed cuts the short term rate, it
can signal that the economy might be weak, which should
push long term yields down. But if the market believes
that rate cut was too aggressive and might risk future.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
Inflation, investors demand a higher return for lending money over
ten years.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
That's it. Investors demand a higher yield to compensate for
that inflation risk. And that's why bond yields and therefore
mortgage rates actually rose. They moved in the opposite direction
of the Fed.
Speaker 1 (23:39):
And that uncertainty has a direct, tangible effect on sellers.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
A major effect. We're seeing a huge dlisting rate listings
being pulled from the market are up forty five percent
year to date. Sellers are pulling back because they realize
they can't get the price they want, and more importantly,
they can't afford to trade their three percent legacy mortgage
for a new six point three percent.
Speaker 1 (24:00):
One the golden handcuffs.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
They're accepting the golden handcuts and just waiting for a rebound,
even while the few buyers still out there are getting
record discounts because of the low competition and fetcher.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Powell basically said as much. He warned that the Fed's
tools are blunt instruments when it comes to housing.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
He was very explicit. He warned that rate cuts will
not make much of a difference for the housing sector
because the problem isn't just about borrowing costs. It's a
fundamental supply crisis.
Speaker 1 (24:27):
A massive shortage of home construction over the last decade exactly.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
He essentially told Congress that fixing housing requires fiscal policy
and supply side solutions, not just tinkering with monetary policy
from the FED.
Speaker 1 (24:40):
So if the FED can't fix the supply problem, what
kind of government solutions are even on the table.
Speaker 2 (24:45):
Well, that's the core debate the solutions fall into two camps.
First is regulatory reform, specifically zoning, the form pushing local
governments to move away from restrictive single family zoning to
allow for more density.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
Like duplexes houses right.
Speaker 2 (25:01):
And the other solution is technological leveraging things like prefab
housing and modular construction to speed up build times and
lower costs. Powell's warning really shifts the focus from the
FED to local planning commissions.
Speaker 1 (25:13):
Okay, now there's a major legal challenge hitting the new
construction industry, highlighting a huge risk for first time buyers.
The class action lawsuit against Dr Horton.
Speaker 2 (25:23):
This is a significant claim filed in Nevada, alleging a
bait and switch scheme. The core allegation is that Dr
Horton and its mortgage arm DHI Mortgage deliberately concealed the
true monthly mortgage cost by suppressing the property tax estimates
in the initial calculations. They allegedly only included a fraction
of the required property taxes, which made the homes look
(25:43):
much more affordable during the sales phase.
Speaker 1 (25:45):
And they're not just suing for damages, they're citing the
r CHEO Act.
Speaker 2 (25:49):
Yes, the Racketeer, Influence and Corrupt Organizations Act, which is
usually used against organized crime.
Speaker 1 (25:56):
So they're arguing this was a pattern of deliberate financial
de disceeple.
Speaker 2 (26:00):
That's the argument, a pattern of racketeering activity that violates
ORIICO on top of the Nevada Deceptive Trade Practices Act.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
And what was the financial fallout for these buyers? Many
of them were first time homeowners veterans.
Speaker 2 (26:14):
It was devastating. After they closed, usually within a year,
a new mortgage servicer would do an ESCRO analysis and
that analysis would include the full assessed property taxes for
the completed home.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
And their monthly payments would just explode.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
Jump by hundreds of dollars unexpectedly. For families on a
tight budget, that kind of increase can risk foreclosure. The
lawsuit argues this was a deliberate tactic to undercut competitors.
Speaker 1 (26:38):
Now, the industry has a counterpoint to this, right, they argue,
this is just how new construction works.
Speaker 2 (26:45):
That counterpoint is essential for balance. Yes, industry professionals argue
the issue is systemic property taxes are initially based only
on the value of the land. It can take a
year or two for the completed home to be officially
assessed by the.
Speaker 1 (26:59):
Count so the tax jump is inevitable.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
They argue, it's inevitable. This gets to the acronym PIITI
principal interest, taxes and insurance. The unexpected jump happens when
the taxes in that PITI calculation is suddenly updated to
reflect the full value of the home.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
So, whether it's negligence or a deliberate scheme, the end
result is a massive financial shock for these families.
Speaker 2 (27:23):
Exactly. The lawsuit is trying to stop the alleged scheme
entirely to protect future buyers from that same shock.
Speaker 1 (27:29):
We're seeing local governments grappling with rising costs too. In Worcester, Massachusetts,
they had a tough vote on twenty twenty six property taxes.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
This illustrates the valuation squeeze. The council voted for the
lowest possible residential tax rate thirteen dollars and twenty eight
cents per.
Speaker 1 (27:44):
Thousand, But because property values went up, people's bills are
still going up.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
That's right. The average single family homeowner will still see
a three point four percent increase about one hundred and
sixty nine dollars, and commercial property owners are getting hit
even harder. A four point two four percent.
Speaker 1 (27:58):
Increase, So a real worry about pushing out small businesses.
Speaker 2 (28:02):
Yes, the fear is creating a city where only chain
restaurants and big corporations can afford to operate. They did, however,
approve two tax relief programs to help oh it is.
They exempted small personal property accounts from getting a tax bill,
and they implemented a senior citizen exemption program that offers
up to fourteen hundred dollars in property tax relief for
(28:22):
those who are eligible.
Speaker 1 (28:23):
Finally, let's look at the shifting world of green energy incentives.
In Maine. Federal support for heat pumps is facing a
sudden deadline.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
This is a big regulatory cliff. The federal Clean Energy
Tax credits, which gave you thirty percent off installation and
equipment costs, are set to expire at the end of
the year because of changes related to President Trump's One
Big Beautiful.
Speaker 1 (28:42):
Bill, so a huge potential cost jump for homeowners. Are
people rushing to meet that deadline?
Speaker 2 (28:48):
They're seeing a slight uptick in installations. Yes, people are
trying to lock in that thirty percent discount. But Maine
is better positioned than many states because it has strong
local support programs will continue.
Speaker 1 (29:01):
What kind of support is staying in place?
Speaker 2 (29:03):
Some federal rebates for low and moderate income families are
still protected, but crucially, the state's efficiency main Trust will
keep offering its own significant rebates up to nine thousand
dollars for low income customers and up to three thousand
dollars for everyone else, So.
Speaker 1 (29:19):
That will buffer the loss of the federal credit.
Speaker 2 (29:21):
It should and the cost savings are a huge part
of the pitch. The calculated average annual energy bill savings
from switching is about seven hundred dollars. Most people make
back their investment in five to eight years.
Speaker 1 (29:32):
All right, let's look past the current turbulence. Everyone is
watching the horizon for a sign of recovery. What are
the major forecasters saying about twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
The consensus from places like the National Association of Realtors
and redfin is one of cautious optimism. They're calling twenty
twenty six a year of opportunity, opportunity?
Speaker 1 (29:51):
What does that mean in practice?
Speaker 2 (29:52):
NAR is forecasting significantly lower rates, maybe dipping closer to
the mid fives. They're also expecting rising inventory. This is
the big one. A projected fourteen percent increase in sales volume.
Speaker 1 (30:04):
Fourteen percent is a big rebound. What's that based on?
Is it just wishful thinking?
Speaker 2 (30:09):
It's based on two things. Massive pent up demand from
people who have been waiting for rates to drop, and
the hope that lower rates will partially unlock those golden handcuffs.
Speaker 1 (30:19):
So more people with three percent or four percent mortgages
might finally feel comfortable moving.
Speaker 2 (30:24):
That's the idea that combination should translate into that big
sales increase.
Speaker 1 (30:29):
So does opportunity mean affordability comes roaring back.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
That's where the caution comes in. Experts are emphasizing that
the affordability crisis will ease slowly. It won't flip dramatically overnight.
It's a long road, a very long road. It requires
sustained wage growth to finally catch up with home prices.
The market is expected to become less brutal, but not easy.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
Okay, we always focus on what's inside the house, the kitchen,
the bathrooms, but you have some compelling data that one
of the most underrated value drivers is actually outside your
front doorighbors, your neighbors.
Speaker 2 (31:01):
This is where real estate gets really psychological. Nearly all
agents ninety seven percent believe curb appeal is crucial. But
it's not just your curb appeal anymore.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
So you do everything right, fresh pain, landscaping, but your
neighbor's yard is a mess. What happens?
Speaker 2 (31:16):
It creates this psychological dissonance for the buyer, what agents
call a big discrepancy and opinion. It subconsciously signals to
a buyer that the neighborhood might be unstable or a
bad fit.
Speaker 1 (31:29):
And that can actually lower the sale price of your
perfect house.
Speaker 2 (31:31):
It can the street tells a story before your home
even gets a chance to.
Speaker 1 (31:35):
So if you're not in an HOA homeowners association, what
can you do about it?
Speaker 2 (31:40):
Well? In HOA is a formal organization that enforces standards,
usually with fees and penalties, so they have legal teeth.
Speaker 1 (31:46):
But if you're in a regular neighborhood.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
In a non HOA community, the best path is collaboration.
Suggests a street clean up weekend offer to split the
cost of fixing a shared fence. Most people want a
beautiful street, and if that doesn't work, if a property
is genuinely violating local county codes bulk trash, unregistered cars,
severe blight, you can report it to the city that
(32:10):
can prompt the owner to make changes.
Speaker 1 (32:12):
Okay, from the outside environment, let's look back inside at
the power of presentation. There's a case study of an
upper west side co op.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
This apartment was on the market for seven hundred and
seventy nine days.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
Over two years, just rotting on the vine.
Speaker 2 (32:25):
Was a disaster, huge four bedroom, but it was priced
way below the area, averaged at only eight hundred and
twenty three dollars a square foot, and still it just
sat there. It was dusty, stale, and it lacked any
kind of vision.
Speaker 1 (32:37):
So a stager, Jason Saft, was called in. What did
he do?
Speaker 2 (32:41):
He performed emergency market surgery. First, he took out these big,
bulky built in bookshelves that were just swallowing up square
footage and making the rooms feel dark. Okay, repainted everything
in neutral colors, updated all the broken light fixtures. But
the overlooked detail was the deep clean. He aired out
the home for a full seventy two hours just to
get rid of that stale and used smell.
Speaker 1 (33:01):
And how did he handle those huge, empty feeling rooms.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
That was the master stroke. In the massive living room,
he created two distinct seating areas anchored by big rugs
to show how the space could actually function a formal area,
a cozy reading nook to it.
Speaker 1 (33:16):
Gave it a purpose.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
He gave it a purpose, and he put up gauzy
window shears to soften the views and bring some warmth
into the darker rooms. And what was the result, immediate
and dramatic. After the staging was done, it went under
contract in just thirty five days.
Speaker 1 (33:30):
From seven hundred and seventy nine days to thirty five.
Speaker 2 (33:33):
It's a perfect illustration that presentation is often just as
powerful as price, especially in a market where buyers are
demanding perfection or at least a clear vision of what's possible.
Speaker 1 (33:42):
That's an immense amount to synthesize, but it really confirms
this idea that we're operating on two completely separate planes
of existence.
Speaker 2 (33:50):
We absolutely are. The ultra luxury sector is totally insulated.
That thirty seven point five million dollar penhouse, the forty
six point five million dollar ranch. Those assets are moving
for general rational reasons or for privacy. They're immune to
rate fluctuations.
Speaker 1 (34:03):
Meanwhile, the everyday home buyer is struggling with mortgage rates
that are defying the FED and facing an affordability gap
where seventy five percent of homes are just out of reach.
Speaker 2 (34:13):
And then you have corporate real estate making these huge
long term plays, Apple shifting over a billion dollars from
leasing to owning to secure their ip and control their future.
Speaker 1 (34:24):
At the same time, cities like Saint Paul are buying
up dormant office buildings to convert them into housing, recognizing
that institutional money is needed to jumpstart development.
Speaker 2 (34:33):
We also saw the legal risks are incredibly high for
the average buyer with that d R. Horton lawsuit and
the political friction in places like Aspen over every square
foot of development.
Speaker 1 (34:44):
It all leads to a pretty critical question for anyone
who owns a home or hopes to it.
Speaker 2 (34:49):
Does if we're entering a market where the value of
your most important asset is determined less by the quality
of the house itself and more by forces completely outside
your control.
Speaker 1 (34:59):
Whether that's a Glowe doable corporation strategy, or local politics
or just your neighbor's lawn care habbits.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
How much ConTroll does the individual homeowner truly have over
their own investment in the years to come.
Speaker 1 (35:10):
That is a provocative thought to end on. If all
these external forces are the primary drivers. The homeowner is
just along for the.
Speaker 2 (35:17):
Ride, and understanding those forces is the first step to
protecting your investment. It's the challenge of twenty twenty six
and beyond.
Speaker 1 (35:24):
Thank you for guiding us through all of this. We
will be watching those twenty twenty six predictions very closely
as well.
Speaker 2 (35:30):
I until next time,
We're looking at a market right now that just doesn't
really make sense, does it?
Speaker 2 (00:05):
On the traditional way.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Now it feels like you have two completely separate universes
just operating in parallel.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
That's a perfect way to put it.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
On one side, you've got these atronomical record breaking deals happening.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Right symbols of this hyper liquidity where Wells just seems
totally insulated from any kind of global instability.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
And then on the other side, well, it's the vast
majority of people, isn't it, aspiring homeowners who are just
stuck in this relentless affordability crisis.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Absolutely, and every metric seems to be tilting further and
further away from them. It's a true market of extremes,
and you can feel that tension.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
So the high end is just completely detached completely.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
It's running on its own economy. It's driven by scarcity,
by design, pedigree, the sheer speed of capital has nothing
to do with the interest rate sensitivity that is just
suffocating everyone else.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
And we're going to unpack that today. We're going to
dive into some of the most spectacular sales and some
pretty interesting celebrity transfers.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
And then we have to pigot hard to the corporate side.
Some big strategic moves are happening there that tell us
a lot about long term confidence.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
And we have to spend a lot of time on
the mortgage environment because that seems to be the biggest
point of confusion.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
It really is that disconnect with the federal reserves actions is,
I think, what's confusing for so many people right now.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Okay, so let's set the stage there. The FED recently
lowered the federal funds rate by what a quarter of
a point, yes.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Zero point two five percent. But here's the kicker. The
average long term mortgage rate actually ticked up up, up.
It's nearing a three month high, hovering around six point
two to two to six point three zero percent, And
that just fuels this massive uncertainty.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
So we need to clarify why a FED rate cut,
which you'd think would help, doesn't automatically mean relief if
you're trying to buy a home with a thirty year mortgage.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Exactly. It tells us a lot about what investors are
expecting for inflation and the economy long term.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
All right, let's start the very top, the spectacular end
of the market, where the price tags they look more
like a country's GDP than a housing costs.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Let's do it.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
We're kicking things off in Beverly Hills a place called
the Rosewood Residences penthouse f The price tag is thirty
seven and a half million dollars.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Yeah, and this isn't just, you know, a fancy apartment
the way is described, it sounds more like a private
fortress built for absolute comfort.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
A fortress is a good word for it. It's a
corner duplex penthouse, one of only four top floor units
in the entire building.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
The scale is just immense. We're talking over six thousand
square feet of interior.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
Space, which is already huge.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
It's massive. But the real show stopper, the thing that
justifies the price, is the private rooftop terrace. It's almost
twenty five hundred square feet.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
So the outdoor space is the size of a very.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Large house exactly. And it's not just an empty deck.
It has its own private plunge pool, a plunge pool,
a spa, a full outdoor kitchen, a wet bar. You're
not buying an apartment, You're buying a customized entertain resort
with these sweeping views over the whole.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
City and beyond just the amenities. It's the exclusivity that's
really being sold here, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
That's the core of it. The whole building, which was
designed by Thomas Jewel Hansen, is built for discretion. Each
of those penthouses has its own private elevator.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
So you never have to see anyone else you.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Don't, and each owner gets their own enclosed private garage.
But the most critical detail is that the building was
designed with no corridors.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
No corridors, what does that even mean?
Speaker 2 (03:30):
It means they've eliminated all the common spaces where you
might run into your neighbors. It maximizes privacy, maximizes security,
which for this level of buyer is just non negotiable.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
And the materials. This tells you it's not just a
local construction project. This is a global product.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
It's a globally curated asset. When you see the names
attached Lisa Coke for the interiors, Greek marble, German limestone
on the facade, custom Italian millwork from Moultenancy, it signals
that the buyer isn't just acquiring California real estate.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
They're buying something that's been reviewed and approved by an
international class of design exactly.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
It's an international peer reviewed asset. It's designed to hold
its value no matter what the local market is doing,
because it appeals to a global class of wealthy individuals
who want that scarcity, that pedigree.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
That makes sense. Okay, speaking of global shifts, let's talk
about Kaya Gerber, the model and actress, is listing her
Soho loft.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Yes, and this is a clear example of a cross
country pivot. She's trading that high density New York City
living for full time California convenience.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
She bought this loft on Mercer Street for what just
under four million back in twenty eighteen, that's right.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Three point nine to five million dollars, and she invested
heavily in it. She personally oversaw a big renovation.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
What does she do?
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Put in new white oak floors throughout and a really
high end chef's kitchen. We're talking both op designed, sub
zero gagnew Mela appliances, top of the line.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Okay. So she sinks a ton of money into this
renovation and then she listed almost immediately. The listing price
is five point seventy nine million dollars.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
It is The broker's note said it has barely been
lived in because she relocated to California full time for work.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
So is that a guaranteed return on her investment in
a place like Soho or is she taking a risk here?
You over improving for a market that might be cooling
a bit.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
That's the big question. It's a real test case. If
it sells near that asking price, it shows that a
really meticulously renovated Soho property can still unlock immediate equity.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
But if it just sits there, If it.
Speaker 2 (05:33):
Sits, it proves that even the best renovations can't totally
insulate an asset from the broader market pressures. It'll be
a really interesting one to watch.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
All right, from strategic taste to well a cautionary tale
about taste. Let's go to Calabasas, John Stamos's former estate.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
Oh, this is a perfect lesson in the financial risks
of extreme over customization.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
The current owners, Justin and Candice Aguilera, they listed it
for thirteen million. Now it's been slashed down to seven
and a quarter.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
A huge cut, and it's all because of what they
did to the inside. They bought the Mediterranean style home
and spent upwards of three million dollars renovating the.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
Interiors, and the result was not well received.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
To put it mildly, it was famously described on social
media as tackyaf and that nickname just stuck.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
I remember the details, weren't there gold clad toilets.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
Gold clad toilets. Yes, And this incredibly intense book matched
Panna marble all over the main living space.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
It's very specific look.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
It was an attempt at maximalist opulence that just completely
fell flat. The shiny, black, white and gold aesthetic alienated
the kind of buyer who's looking in that price range.
They typically want something more subdued, more timeless.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
I think even John Stamos commented on it.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
He did. He felt they had to go online and
clarify that he sold the house years ago before it was,
in his words, redecorated.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
So that five point seventy five million dollar price cut
is basically the market telling the owners that they taste
destroyed value instead of adding it.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
It's an expensive lesson, Yeah, a very expensive lesson in
appealing to the broadest possible pool of buyers.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Okay, let's leave the questionable taste of la behind and
head for the mountains Aspen, Colorado. We have something called
the Glasshouse listed for forty four point five million dollars.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
This is Aspen's version of luxury immersion. The whole concept
is about integrating with nature.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
The seller Elizabeth Stanley, she's the broker and the designer.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Right.
Speaker 1 (07:27):
She built it herself.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
She did. She custom built this on a ten point
six acre lot in a really coveted area, Castle Creek
Valley Ranch. Her whole mission was to create a house
that felt immersed in the mountains.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
But it's still close to town.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
That's the key. It's only eight minutes from downtown Aspen,
so you get the seclusion without the isolation.
Speaker 1 (07:46):
So what's the design choice that justifies that immense price tag.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
It's this contrast between the very modern structure and the
rustic warmth In side. It's a low profile, boxy, modern design,
dark metal stone. But inside it's all wood, reclaimed wood floors,
wood on the walls and ceilings, a massive granite fireplace.
But the defining feature is the use of glass walls
everywhere the Glasshouse exactly. It literally dissolves the boundary between
(08:12):
inside and out. It floods the space with light and views.
You're not just buying the structure you're buying the mountains.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
And that desire for private mountain development brings us right
to a local controversy and Aspen the Kino Gulch cabin.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Yes, this is a perfect microcosm of the political friction
you see in these resort towns.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
It's about a company Cloud Ten Aspen LLC that wants
to build a pretty modest cabin, only a thousand square.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
Feet, right, but it's on Aspen Mountain. And this is
where you get the eternal struggle balancing private property rights
with preserving public goods, especially in what they call rural
and remote areas.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
The main issue was access right. They needed to cross
county land to get utilities and erode to the property.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
That was the crux of the negotiation. What does the
public get in return for granting that access.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
And what was the deal?
Speaker 2 (09:01):
The developer agreed to two things. First, a conservation easeman
on the land around the cabin, which restricts any future development.
And second, they guaranteed public access along a county maintained
trail that crosses through their property.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
But not everyone on the County Commission was happy about it.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
No Commissioner Greg Poshman cast a protest vote His argument
was all about precedent.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
He was worried this would open the floodgates exactly.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
He argued against developing these rural and remote areas for
what he saw as a very limited public return. He
cited the cost to wildlife habitat and the danger of
setting a precedent for other entrepreneurs, as he put it,
to exploit these preserved areas for private gain.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
But the plan was approved with some pretty strict conditions
I understand.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
Very strict under the Scenic Covenant. The cabin has to
use earth tone colors, it has to have a low profile,
and critically, it has to be invisible from major roads.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
So it tries to solve the visual problem.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
It does. But Poshman's point about habitat disruption and just
the general encroachment on wildern this that remains central to
the whole debate in Aspen about growth versus preservation.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
All right, let's shift gears completely from the intense scrutiny
of a small cabin in Colorado to the sheer, mind
boggling scale of West Texas. The y Bar ranch.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Yes listed for forty six point five million dollars. And
this isn't just luxury living. This is acquiring an entire
self sustaining ecosystem.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
The scale is almost impossible to comprehend. Nearly thirty thousand
deeded acres.
Speaker 2 (10:29):
In the Big Bend region right near the National and
state parks. The asking price works out to about sixteen
hundred dollars an acre, which is pretty competitive for land
of that size and quality.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
And the key detail here is that the sale is
all inclusive.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
That's what makes it exceptional. The livestock, all the equipment,
the water rights, the mineral rights, it's all part of
that forty six point five million dollar price. You buy
the ranch, you are buying the entire operation, turnkey.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
It's been in the same family since the early sixties.
Why is a huge legacy property like this coming on
the market now.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
It's a classic scenario for these big family ranches generational transition.
The listing agent confirmed there are several beneficiaries.
Speaker 1 (11:09):
Some of whom use it, some who don't.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
Exactly, and when ownership gets fragmented across the generation, the
simplest Ferris solution is often just to liquidate the asset
and divide the proceeds.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
And the logistics of managing water on thirty thousand acres
in West Texas must be staggering.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
It's a highly engineered system. They have twenty eight wells
powered by a mix of windmills, solar panels, and electric pumps,
all feeding this vast network of pipelines and troughs for
the cattle.
Speaker 1 (11:35):
But it's not just a cattle operation anymore.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
No, they've really enhanced its recreational value. It's now prime
hunting territory for elk and mule deer, and it's also
designated for stargazing.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
From immense acreage to intense high speed luxury. In Dallas,
the market there just saw a massive non disclosed sale
of a mega mansion in Highland Park.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
This is a perfect example of how the top of
the Texas market operates. It's all under a cloak of
non disclosure. We don't know the final price, but is
asking thirty two point five million. And the key here
was the build quality, uncompromising commitment to quality. This mansion
is almost nineteen thousand square feet and it took five
years to build. The owners and designers took multiple trips
(12:16):
to Europe just to source materials.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
Five years. What kind of details demand that much time?
Speaker 2 (12:22):
We're talking about things you just can't buy off the shelf.
The floors are reclaimed limestone that they imported directly from
a French chateau.
Speaker 1 (12:29):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
Hardware and fixtures were sourced from Paris. And the most
incredible detail, the ceiling dome in the foyer, is twenty
four carrot gold leaf.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Okay, that's a different level.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
It's a different level. The buyers were apparently drawn to
the fact that it sits on a full acre, which
is incredibly rare in Hellam Park, and the design just
perfectly replicated an authentic Italian villa.
Speaker 1 (12:49):
And this wasn't just a one off sale. There was
a rapid fire, twenty four hour blitz of two other
high end sales.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
Right totaling nearly twenty four million dollars. And what this
signals is that the ten million plus segment in Dallas
is not lagging. It's thriving on velocity.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
So if the product is perfect and the privacy is guaranteed.
Speaker 2 (13:09):
These homes move almost instantly. Dallas continues to be this
crucial magnet for heighth net worth individuals.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
Finally, we're going to cap this luxury tour with a
literal piece of history, a European castle in Italy, Villa
sant Andrea.
Speaker 2 (13:23):
This is next level, a seventy two acre estate outside Verona,
listed by a member of the Liechtenstein royal family.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
The price is undisclosed.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
Undisclosed, but the estimates put it north of thirty million euros,
so potentially close to forty one million dollars. The history
is just breathtaking. The property includes an eleventh century former
monastery and a fortified castle.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
And like the Texas Ranch, it's not just a home.
It's a working income generating operation.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
That's the key. It's a working estate. It has vineyards
that produce high quality Merlau and Cabernet, plus olive groves.
Princess Astro von Liechtenstein, who is also a CEO of
a luxury furniture company, spent millions renovating and modernizing the property.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
So it's fully updated.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
Completely, two helicopter pads, two pools. It's ready for a
modern ultra wealthy buyer. You're buying a diversified portfolio, history, agriculture,
and residence all in one.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
Okay, after seeing deals that confirm the ultra wealthy are
just completely insulated, we have to swing back hard to
the reality facing most Americans.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
Yes, the stark crisis of affordability, and the data you've
pulled is pretty grim.
Speaker 1 (14:29):
Renting is now unequivocally cheaper than earning a home everywhere.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
This is one of the most devastating structural changes we've
seen in the US housing market in decades. The analysis
is unambiguous. Renting is cheaper than paying a mortgage in
all fifty of the largest US metros in twenty twenty five,
all of them.
Speaker 1 (14:44):
That's just a shocking statistic.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
And what's more concerning is that the cost difference, that
gap between renting and owning has actually gotten wider in
thirty eight of those metros since just last year. It's
a compounding problem.
Speaker 1 (14:57):
It fundamentally changes what home ownership be is.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
It forces us to admit that home ownership itself has
become a luxury item. It's not a standard economic stepping
stone anymore.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
So how do we measure that.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
You have to look at the share of available homes
a typical household can actually afford in any given market,
and that metric is damming. In many places, a typical
household can only afford twenty to thirty percent of the
homes for sale.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
So seventy five percent or more, or just completely.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Out of reach, completely out of reach. If three quarters
of the inventory is off limits, the market has basically
split into two functions.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
An asset class for the wealthy and just shelter for
everyone else.
Speaker 2 (15:37):
That's the perfect way to frame it. Housing is no
longer primarily shelter. It's capital, and if you try to
access shelter, you're now locked in this intense competition for
that tiny slice of affordable homes, which just drives prices
up even more in that tier.
Speaker 1 (15:51):
And Miami is the prime example of this acceleration.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
The most glaring median prices for condos and single family
homes there are up over eight eighty percent since the
pandemic started, driven by that huge influx of wealth.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
But despite all this, people are still moving, which brings
us to this idea of the great real estate shuffle
which cities are seeing the most turnover.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
This mobility metric is a crucial counterpoint to the doom
and gloom narrative. The analysis looked at the fifty largest
metros and the places with the highest turnover the most
sales per one thousand housing units were Kansas City, San Antonio,
and Indianapolis.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
So the heartland and Texas. Why there?
Speaker 2 (16:31):
It comes down to two simple things, relative affordability and inventory.
In Kansas City, the median list prices three hundred and
eighty thousand. In San Antonio it's even lower, three hundred
and twenty nine thousand.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
So people can actually qualify for a loan and make
a move right.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
And Texas in particular is benefiting hugely from a ton
of new construction, which adds to the inventory.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
And this is important. This mobility isn't panic selling, No.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
It's positive churn. It's people relocating for jobs or using
equity they've built up to find more space. It shows
that those local markets are actually functioning the way they're supposed.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
To, whereas the coasts are paralyzed. People are golden handcuffed
to their low rates exactly.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
But even within a locked up place like New York City,
you see these little micro markets. Staten Island, for example,
saw over twenty four hundred sales in twenty twenty five,
which is consistent with the year before.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
And the average sale price there is still over seven
hundred thousand dollars.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
It is, but the activity is centered in neighborhoods like
Great kills in Eltingville, where people are looking for single
family homes with yards. It's a less dense option within
the city. And even Staten Island has a luxury component.
They just had their highest sale ever eight point five
million on Todd Hill.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
Let's shift from residential movement to massive corporate strategy. Apple's
quiet spending spree in Kupertino. They're passed a billion dollars
since June.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
This is more than just a real estate deal. It's
a profound strategic shift in how Apple sees its physical footprint.
They've acquired over one and a half million square feet
of office in lab space.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
And the key is these are properties they were already leasing, many.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
Of them, yes, in some cases for nearly a decade.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
Most of big tech is trimming their office space or
at least staying flexible with hybrid work. Why is Apple
going in the opposite direction and committing over a billion
dollars to owning these buildings.
Speaker 2 (18:16):
It's a clear signal about their commitment to the area
and the nature of their work. Moving from leasing to
owning is about three things for them, Okay. First, tighter
control over design and amenities so they can tailor spaces
for very specific sensitive R and D labs. Second, IP security,
they need absolute control over the physical environment to protect
(18:38):
their secrets. And third, long term cost control. They're betting
that the cost of capital now is worth having total
physical command of their campus forever. It's a fundamental belief
in the future of physical work.
Speaker 1 (18:50):
Can you break down the scale of that billion dollar investment?
Speaker 2 (18:53):
I mean we're talking huge institutional acquisitions. Yeah, there's the
three hundred and sixty five million dollars Matilda Campus of
three hundred and fifty million dollar pair of buildings, the
one hundred and sixty six million dollar Coupertino Gateway.
Speaker 1 (19:05):
Complex, and the latest one.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
The latest is two buildings on Stevens Creek Boulevard for
two hundred and sixteen million dollars and they paid cash
for that one.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
Paying two hundred and sixteen million in cash. What does
this mean for the city of Coupertino.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
It means a significant reduction in available office space for
anyone else. It could make the area less attractive for
startups or smaller firms. Apple's dominance is now even more solidified,
forcing the city to plant its future tax revenue zoning
almost entirely around the needs of one massive institution.
Speaker 1 (19:36):
From tech giants to community revitalization. Let's look at the
La Austra development in Manhattan.
Speaker 2 (19:42):
This is a fantastic model for how cities can use
public land for social good. It's a creative public private
partnership focused entirely on deep affordability, two towers twenty five
and fifteen stories on a vacant waterfront site, and it's.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
Creating over six hundred of feundable.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
Homes, six hundred plus homes specific for low income New
Yorkers and seniors. But it's so much more than just housing.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
They've bundled in all these community assets.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Absolutely, the goal is to build a whole community hub.
There's a world class marine science and STEM center, dedicated
space for mental health services, and a huge indoor outdoor
soccer field, so.
Speaker 1 (20:17):
It benefits the whole neighborhood, not just the residents.
Speaker 2 (20:19):
That's the idea. And given that it's on the waterfront,
climate resiliency is a huge part of the design, so
the building itself is elevated to mitigate future flood risks.
It also has rooftop solar arrays, microwater turbines, even algae
panels for energy production. It's designed to be highly resilient
and less dependent on the grid.
Speaker 1 (20:40):
And we're seeing more affordable housing open up nearby in
Queens too.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Yes, the lottery for Willett's Point Commons has studios starting
at four hundred and eighty six dollars a month. That's
almost unheard of in New York.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
And these are high quality buildings.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
They're aiming for Lead Gold certification, which is a really
high standard for sustainable efficient design. It shows a real
commitment to long term quality, even for deeply affordable housing.
Speaker 1 (21:03):
Let's look at how other cities are revitalizing their downtowns.
Saint Paul, Minnesota, is tackling its empty office space problem.
Speaker 2 (21:10):
They're being very proactive. The Saint Paul Downtown Development Corporation
just bought two vacant buildings, the Empire Building and Endicotta Arcade,
for under a million.
Speaker 1 (21:22):
Dollars and the plan is to convert them.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
Yes, convert under used office space into housing and retail.
It's about activating a key block and recognizing that downtowns
need residents and foot traffic to survive now, not just
nine to five office workers.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
We're also seeing significant new housing inventory coming to Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
The Hershey West End Development got approval for a two
hundred and forty five acre project. It's going to have
about two hundred and fifty four sale homes in townhouses.
Speaker 1 (21:51):
And that's a big deal for that community.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
It's expected to be the most significant new housing contribution
there in over thirty years. Even two hundred and fifty
units can make a huge difference in relieving local price
pressure and quickly.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
Cincinnati is also seeing some targeted redevelopment.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
Yes, a vacant mixed use building on West Court Street
was acquired for one point eight four million. It's another
positive sign of commitment to revitalizing these downtown entertainment corridors
and bringing dormant buildings back to life.
Speaker 1 (22:17):
All right, let's get into the harsh realities of financing
that interest rate environment. So to recap, the FED cuts
the federal funds rate by a quarter point, but the
average mortgage rate goes up to around six point three percent.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (22:30):
This feels like proof that the market has just lost
faith in the Fed's ability to control long term lending costs?
Is that what's happening.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
It's not so much a loss of faith as it
is the market reasserting financial logic. The public often misunderstands
this mechanism. The FED funds rate controls very short term borrowing.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
Like overnight loans between banks exactly.
Speaker 2 (22:52):
But mortgage rates are tied to the ten year treasury yield.
Speaker 1 (22:54):
So explain that difference. Why is the ten year treasury
yield what matters for my mortgage?
Speaker 2 (23:00):
Because the ten year treasury yield is all about investor
expectations for long term economic growth and crucially, inflation.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
So the market is looking further down the road than
the Fed's immediate action.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
Precisely, when the Fed cuts the short term rate, it
can signal that the economy might be weak, which should
push long term yields down. But if the market believes
that rate cut was too aggressive and might risk future.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
Inflation, investors demand a higher return for lending money over
ten years.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
That's it. Investors demand a higher yield to compensate for
that inflation risk. And that's why bond yields and therefore
mortgage rates actually rose. They moved in the opposite direction
of the Fed.
Speaker 1 (23:39):
And that uncertainty has a direct, tangible effect on sellers.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
A major effect. We're seeing a huge dlisting rate listings
being pulled from the market are up forty five percent
year to date. Sellers are pulling back because they realize
they can't get the price they want, and more importantly,
they can't afford to trade their three percent legacy mortgage
for a new six point three percent.
Speaker 1 (24:00):
One the golden handcuffs.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
They're accepting the golden handcuts and just waiting for a rebound,
even while the few buyers still out there are getting
record discounts because of the low competition and fetcher.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Powell basically said as much. He warned that the Fed's
tools are blunt instruments when it comes to housing.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
He was very explicit. He warned that rate cuts will
not make much of a difference for the housing sector
because the problem isn't just about borrowing costs. It's a
fundamental supply crisis.
Speaker 1 (24:27):
A massive shortage of home construction over the last decade exactly.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
He essentially told Congress that fixing housing requires fiscal policy
and supply side solutions, not just tinkering with monetary policy
from the FED.
Speaker 1 (24:40):
So if the FED can't fix the supply problem, what
kind of government solutions are even on the table.
Speaker 2 (24:45):
Well, that's the core debate the solutions fall into two camps.
First is regulatory reform, specifically zoning, the form pushing local
governments to move away from restrictive single family zoning to
allow for more density.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
Like duplexes houses right.
Speaker 2 (25:01):
And the other solution is technological leveraging things like prefab
housing and modular construction to speed up build times and
lower costs. Powell's warning really shifts the focus from the
FED to local planning commissions.
Speaker 1 (25:13):
Okay, now there's a major legal challenge hitting the new
construction industry, highlighting a huge risk for first time buyers.
The class action lawsuit against Dr Horton.
Speaker 2 (25:23):
This is a significant claim filed in Nevada, alleging a
bait and switch scheme. The core allegation is that Dr
Horton and its mortgage arm DHI Mortgage deliberately concealed the
true monthly mortgage cost by suppressing the property tax estimates
in the initial calculations. They allegedly only included a fraction
of the required property taxes, which made the homes look
(25:43):
much more affordable during the sales phase.
Speaker 1 (25:45):
And they're not just suing for damages, they're citing the
r CHEO Act.
Speaker 2 (25:49):
Yes, the Racketeer, Influence and Corrupt Organizations Act, which is
usually used against organized crime.
Speaker 1 (25:56):
So they're arguing this was a pattern of deliberate financial
de disceeple.
Speaker 2 (26:00):
That's the argument, a pattern of racketeering activity that violates
ORIICO on top of the Nevada Deceptive Trade Practices Act.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
And what was the financial fallout for these buyers? Many
of them were first time homeowners veterans.
Speaker 2 (26:14):
It was devastating. After they closed, usually within a year,
a new mortgage servicer would do an ESCRO analysis and
that analysis would include the full assessed property taxes for
the completed home.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
And their monthly payments would just explode.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
Jump by hundreds of dollars unexpectedly. For families on a
tight budget, that kind of increase can risk foreclosure. The
lawsuit argues this was a deliberate tactic to undercut competitors.
Speaker 1 (26:38):
Now, the industry has a counterpoint to this, right, they argue,
this is just how new construction works.
Speaker 2 (26:45):
That counterpoint is essential for balance. Yes, industry professionals argue
the issue is systemic property taxes are initially based only
on the value of the land. It can take a
year or two for the completed home to be officially
assessed by the.
Speaker 1 (26:59):
Count so the tax jump is inevitable.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
They argue, it's inevitable. This gets to the acronym PIITI
principal interest, taxes and insurance. The unexpected jump happens when
the taxes in that PITI calculation is suddenly updated to
reflect the full value of the home.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
So, whether it's negligence or a deliberate scheme, the end
result is a massive financial shock for these families.
Speaker 2 (27:23):
Exactly. The lawsuit is trying to stop the alleged scheme
entirely to protect future buyers from that same shock.
Speaker 1 (27:29):
We're seeing local governments grappling with rising costs too. In Worcester, Massachusetts,
they had a tough vote on twenty twenty six property taxes.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
This illustrates the valuation squeeze. The council voted for the
lowest possible residential tax rate thirteen dollars and twenty eight
cents per.
Speaker 1 (27:44):
Thousand, But because property values went up, people's bills are
still going up.
Speaker 2 (27:47):
That's right. The average single family homeowner will still see
a three point four percent increase about one hundred and
sixty nine dollars, and commercial property owners are getting hit
even harder. A four point two four percent.
Speaker 1 (27:58):
Increase, So a real worry about pushing out small businesses.
Speaker 2 (28:02):
Yes, the fear is creating a city where only chain
restaurants and big corporations can afford to operate. They did, however,
approve two tax relief programs to help oh it is.
They exempted small personal property accounts from getting a tax bill,
and they implemented a senior citizen exemption program that offers
up to fourteen hundred dollars in property tax relief for
(28:22):
those who are eligible.
Speaker 1 (28:23):
Finally, let's look at the shifting world of green energy incentives.
In Maine. Federal support for heat pumps is facing a
sudden deadline.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
This is a big regulatory cliff. The federal Clean Energy
Tax credits, which gave you thirty percent off installation and
equipment costs, are set to expire at the end of
the year because of changes related to President Trump's One
Big Beautiful.
Speaker 1 (28:42):
Bill, so a huge potential cost jump for homeowners. Are
people rushing to meet that deadline?
Speaker 2 (28:48):
They're seeing a slight uptick in installations. Yes, people are
trying to lock in that thirty percent discount. But Maine
is better positioned than many states because it has strong
local support programs will continue.
Speaker 1 (29:01):
What kind of support is staying in place?
Speaker 2 (29:03):
Some federal rebates for low and moderate income families are
still protected, but crucially, the state's efficiency main Trust will
keep offering its own significant rebates up to nine thousand
dollars for low income customers and up to three thousand
dollars for everyone else, So.
Speaker 1 (29:19):
That will buffer the loss of the federal credit.
Speaker 2 (29:21):
It should and the cost savings are a huge part
of the pitch. The calculated average annual energy bill savings
from switching is about seven hundred dollars. Most people make
back their investment in five to eight years.
Speaker 1 (29:32):
All right, let's look past the current turbulence. Everyone is
watching the horizon for a sign of recovery. What are
the major forecasters saying about twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
The consensus from places like the National Association of Realtors
and redfin is one of cautious optimism. They're calling twenty
twenty six a year of opportunity, opportunity?
Speaker 1 (29:51):
What does that mean in practice?
Speaker 2 (29:52):
NAR is forecasting significantly lower rates, maybe dipping closer to
the mid fives. They're also expecting rising inventory. This is
the big one. A projected fourteen percent increase in sales volume.
Speaker 1 (30:04):
Fourteen percent is a big rebound. What's that based on?
Is it just wishful thinking?
Speaker 2 (30:09):
It's based on two things. Massive pent up demand from
people who have been waiting for rates to drop, and
the hope that lower rates will partially unlock those golden handcuffs.
Speaker 1 (30:19):
So more people with three percent or four percent mortgages
might finally feel comfortable moving.
Speaker 2 (30:24):
That's the idea that combination should translate into that big
sales increase.
Speaker 1 (30:29):
So does opportunity mean affordability comes roaring back.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
That's where the caution comes in. Experts are emphasizing that
the affordability crisis will ease slowly. It won't flip dramatically overnight.
It's a long road, a very long road. It requires
sustained wage growth to finally catch up with home prices.
The market is expected to become less brutal, but not easy.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
Okay, we always focus on what's inside the house, the kitchen,
the bathrooms, but you have some compelling data that one
of the most underrated value drivers is actually outside your
front doorighbors, your neighbors.
Speaker 2 (31:01):
This is where real estate gets really psychological. Nearly all
agents ninety seven percent believe curb appeal is crucial. But
it's not just your curb appeal anymore.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
So you do everything right, fresh pain, landscaping, but your
neighbor's yard is a mess. What happens?
Speaker 2 (31:16):
It creates this psychological dissonance for the buyer, what agents
call a big discrepancy and opinion. It subconsciously signals to
a buyer that the neighborhood might be unstable or a
bad fit.
Speaker 1 (31:29):
And that can actually lower the sale price of your
perfect house.
Speaker 2 (31:31):
It can the street tells a story before your home
even gets a chance to.
Speaker 1 (31:35):
So if you're not in an HOA homeowners association, what
can you do about it?
Speaker 2 (31:40):
Well? In HOA is a formal organization that enforces standards,
usually with fees and penalties, so they have legal teeth.
Speaker 1 (31:46):
But if you're in a regular neighborhood.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
In a non HOA community, the best path is collaboration.
Suggests a street clean up weekend offer to split the
cost of fixing a shared fence. Most people want a
beautiful street, and if that doesn't work, if a property
is genuinely violating local county codes bulk trash, unregistered cars,
severe blight, you can report it to the city that
(32:10):
can prompt the owner to make changes.
Speaker 1 (32:12):
Okay, from the outside environment, let's look back inside at
the power of presentation. There's a case study of an
upper west side co op.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
This apartment was on the market for seven hundred and
seventy nine days.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
Over two years, just rotting on the vine.
Speaker 2 (32:25):
Was a disaster, huge four bedroom, but it was priced
way below the area, averaged at only eight hundred and
twenty three dollars a square foot, and still it just
sat there. It was dusty, stale, and it lacked any
kind of vision.
Speaker 1 (32:37):
So a stager, Jason Saft, was called in. What did
he do?
Speaker 2 (32:41):
He performed emergency market surgery. First, he took out these big,
bulky built in bookshelves that were just swallowing up square
footage and making the rooms feel dark. Okay, repainted everything
in neutral colors, updated all the broken light fixtures. But
the overlooked detail was the deep clean. He aired out
the home for a full seventy two hours just to
get rid of that stale and used smell.
Speaker 1 (33:01):
And how did he handle those huge, empty feeling rooms.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
That was the master stroke. In the massive living room,
he created two distinct seating areas anchored by big rugs
to show how the space could actually function a formal area,
a cozy reading nook to it.
Speaker 1 (33:16):
Gave it a purpose.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
He gave it a purpose, and he put up gauzy
window shears to soften the views and bring some warmth
into the darker rooms. And what was the result, immediate
and dramatic. After the staging was done, it went under
contract in just thirty five days.
Speaker 1 (33:30):
From seven hundred and seventy nine days to thirty five.
Speaker 2 (33:33):
It's a perfect illustration that presentation is often just as
powerful as price, especially in a market where buyers are
demanding perfection or at least a clear vision of what's possible.
Speaker 1 (33:42):
That's an immense amount to synthesize, but it really confirms
this idea that we're operating on two completely separate planes
of existence.
Speaker 2 (33:50):
We absolutely are. The ultra luxury sector is totally insulated.
That thirty seven point five million dollar penhouse, the forty
six point five million dollar ranch. Those assets are moving
for general rational reasons or for privacy. They're immune to
rate fluctuations.
Speaker 1 (34:03):
Meanwhile, the everyday home buyer is struggling with mortgage rates
that are defying the FED and facing an affordability gap
where seventy five percent of homes are just out of reach.
Speaker 2 (34:13):
And then you have corporate real estate making these huge
long term plays, Apple shifting over a billion dollars from
leasing to owning to secure their ip and control their future.
Speaker 1 (34:24):
At the same time, cities like Saint Paul are buying
up dormant office buildings to convert them into housing, recognizing
that institutional money is needed to jumpstart development.
Speaker 2 (34:33):
We also saw the legal risks are incredibly high for
the average buyer with that d R. Horton lawsuit and
the political friction in places like Aspen over every square
foot of development.
Speaker 1 (34:44):
It all leads to a pretty critical question for anyone
who owns a home or hopes to it.
Speaker 2 (34:49):
Does if we're entering a market where the value of
your most important asset is determined less by the quality
of the house itself and more by forces completely outside
your control.
Speaker 1 (34:59):
Whether that's a Glowe doable corporation strategy, or local politics
or just your neighbor's lawn care habbits.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
How much ConTroll does the individual homeowner truly have over
their own investment in the years to come.
Speaker 1 (35:10):
That is a provocative thought to end on. If all
these external forces are the primary drivers. The homeowner is
just along for the.
Speaker 2 (35:17):
Ride, and understanding those forces is the first step to
protecting your investment. It's the challenge of twenty twenty six
and beyond.
Speaker 1 (35:24):
Thank you for guiding us through all of this. We
will be watching those twenty twenty six predictions very closely
as well.
Speaker 2 (35:30):
I until next time,
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