September 23, 2024 • 35 mins
Ryan urges listeners to take a deep breath, not overreact to polls in either direction, and follow the historic numbers by which traditional pollsters have been off when it comes to sampling support for Donald Trump. If past is prologue, as Shakespeare once wrote, there is reason to believe a correction is coming the Orange Man's way. Even Kamala Harris and her team appear to be betting on this, as she is begging for another debate.
New polling shows a tightrace in the Sun Belt, and young voters will be a key demographic. Former New York legislator Josh Lafazan discusses more on why the Democratic party is supported by less younger men aswell as more on both campaign strategies to gain more of these young votes.
Home | My Site (joshlafazan.com)
New polling shows a tightrace in the Sun Belt, and young voters will be a key demographic. Former New York legislator Josh Lafazan discusses more on why the Democratic party is supported by less younger men aswell as more on both campaign strategies to gain more of these young votes.
Home | My Site (joshlafazan.com)
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
What's your most important issues?
Speaker 2 (00:02):
The economy, getting interest race down, getting it what we
can afford to live in America right now? It's too expensive.
Speaker 3 (00:09):
Okay, now, let me maybe ask for like a slightly
imp that question.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
But you know, if you can afford a boat, you're
not hurt.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
It's so bad, right because.
Speaker 4 (00:19):
A boat costs a lot of money and it's a
lot of upkeep.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Listen, nobody gave me. I earned everything that I've got.
I'm retired military, retired power plant and I am successful
and retired with boats jet skis because I get it right.
And everybody has that chance, whether they choose or not,
that's up to them.
Speaker 4 (00:38):
I would never try to take anything away from you
in that way.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
But what I'm asking is groceries are probably a smaller
part of your budget than say, you know someone who's.
Speaker 5 (00:48):
Like a little worse off.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
I think it's interesting that people who are a little
bit more comfortable are still so concerned about the economy.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
To use to im because I want my money to
go further, inflation to go down, I want interest rates
to go back down. I want all that. But that
covers everybody in the economy, not just me, not just
a poor, not just a ranch, and it covers everybody.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
That's something I've heard from some people.
Speaker 4 (01:12):
Tell me, if this applies to you, is like there
worry their kids aren't able to afford a.
Speaker 6 (01:16):
House or a calf.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
I trained my kids and taught my kids properly. They
have great educations and they're both successful in their careers.
Actually they're doing better than me.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
That's CNN reporting from a MAGA boat parade from over
the weekend. Ryan Shuling with you here on Ryan Shuling
Live six thirty K how you can text us at
any point during today's program on this Monday five seven, seven,
three nine, start those texts.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
Ryan Kelly could scare alongside.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
But Kelly, this guy strikes me as somebody that you
and I would have a lot of fun hanging out with.
Speaker 7 (01:45):
Oh, for sure, But don't you just love the fact
that the CNN reporter could not get out of her
own way. It's the fact that she just had to
keep going one step further, one step further, and stepping
into a bigger hole than the hole that she was
already in.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Well, he's right, nobody gave him blank you know, he
earned it, and a guy like this didn't get wealthy
enough to be able to afford a nice boat that
he's apparently going to this parade or gathering seaside with.
He didn't get wealthy by being stupid with his money.
He got wealthy by being smart with his money. He
(02:27):
got wealthy by yeah, counting nickels and dimes, not blowing
his cash on insignificant things, trying to save money and
be frugal where he can be invest money. I mean,
there's all kinds of different ways that one can accumulate wealth,
and it doesn't have to be somebody even that makes
as good a living as him.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
Listen to Kevin O'Leary here from Shark Tank.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
This is such a great bit of advice, and I
gotta admit of recent time because I've you know, been
down and out with the COVID strain that's out. I've
slipped off this wagon a little bit. But he makes
a great point and I try to adhere to this. Well,
you were too.
Speaker 8 (03:06):
Stop buying coffee for five dollars and fifty cents. You know,
you go to work and spend fifteen bucks on a sandwich?
What are you an idiot? It costs you ninety nine
cents to make a sandwich at home and bring it
with you. You start to add that up every day. It's
a ton of money. Most people, particularly working in metropolitan
cities that are just starting out on their job making
their first sixty thousand, piss away about fifteen thousand a
year on stupid stuff.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
And that's what they should stop doing.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
Kevin O'Leary did not become a mogul a billionaire by
being stupid with his money. And yes, you can go
as micro as he just said, think about it. I've
been thinking about it. You know how much money do
I waste When I take little Milo, my neighbor's mini Schnauzer, my.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Buddy, out for a walk.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
I'll take it to like dog Topia there in DTC,
and just a few doors down it's Starbucks, and I'm
out and I'm walking. I'm walking here and I, you know,
get a nice coffee when the weather was a little
bit warmer. And that's set me back five six seven
bucks for coffee that I can make it home. I
order blackout coffee. That's someone that you hear about on
(04:10):
Dan Bongino's program. They're one of us, ones of us,
many of us, and I would very strongly recommend they
have very high quality coffee.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
But I buy that that's fifteen dollars a bag or whatever.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
That's a lot, right, But when you compare that to
one iced Moca latte from Starbucks, it's insignificant. You save
so much money just by having your own coffee grinder,
your own mister coffee unit like I have at home,
making your own coffee, banking your own coffee, putting it
in a container, in a tumbler, putting it in the fridge,
(04:44):
using that and shaping those out for each day of
the week. How much money do I save by doing that?
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Tons?
Speaker 3 (04:50):
That is, if I have a proclivity for coffee, which
I do making my own sandwiches.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
Kelly knows this. I go by the King Soupers Deli Index.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
I've been absolutely mortified and frustrated and upset and angry,
and I look at people like, how can you vote
for more of this from Harris and Walls than we've
seen over these last three and a half years, where
just very good quality deli meats are now sixteen dollars
a pound and cheese cheese is about ten or so
(05:21):
dollars a pound good cheese. I'm just talking about like
roast beef, typical staples that you would make a sandwich with.
But the issue is as bad as that is, and
it's bad and it pisses me off. Kelly, by their
good graces, just orders sandwich for me from Jimmy John's today.
I hope you got one for yourself too, did you?
Speaker 7 (05:41):
I give the little one?
Speaker 3 (05:43):
Even so, how much how much do those sandwiches set
you back each.
Speaker 7 (05:48):
Between Let's see yours and mine was about thirty bucks, so.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
Fifteen dollars, just like Kevin O'Leary said, yep, that's insane.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
I live in a world and you do too, where
you can remember it wasn't that long though I know
it's not as good a quality maybe as Jimmy John's
or Jersey Mind So, which is my favorite? For the
chain restaurants that do sandwiches five dollars foot long?
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Member?
Speaker 3 (06:13):
Those from Subway. Member, that wasn't that long ago. Now
you don't do it anymore. But by that scale, yeah,
you go get a five dollar foot long from Subway,
that's a good deal. Those are gone. And even by
going to get my sixteen dollar a pound lunch meat,
sometimes I can get a sale and I'm just dancing
(06:36):
in a circle because it's twelve or thirteen dollars a pound,
I'm serious. But even doing that and making your own
sandwiches and parsoning those out for the week and setting
them up.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
Ahead of time.
Speaker 3 (06:47):
With the coffee that he just talked about that you banked,
you're saving yourself roughly about twenty dollars a day.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
That's one hundred dollars a week.
Speaker 3 (06:57):
That's fifty two hundred dollars a year, just simple math
adding up there. Now, why do I start the show
with this today? Because this election should be an open
and shutcase. It should be very straightforward. We know that
on our side, but there is just so much nebulous
nature perception about Kamala Harrison her campaign.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
She is a disaster. Now, I want to start with numbers.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
I'm a big nerd, and Robert Kahley will make his
triumphant return to this program on Wednesday. He is the
chief pollster for Trafalgar Group. And what I want to
get from Robert are a few things leading down the
stretch as we are now at almost exactly six weeks
that'll be tomorrow until election day, and what trend should
we be focusing on state polls, national polling averages, issues
(07:46):
related type.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Voters, where are they going?
Speaker 3 (07:49):
And why we're going to have all that in a
conversation with him coming up to start the show on Wednesday.
But I have a lot of people reaching out that
are absolutely panicking over the polls. And what I would
say to you is the polls aren't everything, They're not nothing.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
They're an indicator, They're an index. But keep in mind the.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
Statistical historic accuracy or lack thereof, of these very polls,
the ones that are most concerning coming out over the weekend.
First from NBC News showing Harris nationally among one thousand
registered voters. Registered voters not as good of a poll
as likely voters, but let's just keep going. Harris plus five,
(08:32):
forty nine, forty four. Now, I tell you, for this
NBC News poll to keep that with a grain of salt.
As we are Harris plus five through September seventeenth. The
closest comparable polling data I could find in twenty twenty
for the Trump Biden race by NBC News was for
(08:55):
October two and three, so it's only off by what
a week and a half there On October third of
twenty twenty NBC News, same polling outfit, You would have
to assume same polling methodology had Biden up. Want to guess, Telly,
how much did they have Biden up? You gotta take
a phone call. Fourteen fifty three to thirty nine. Joe
(09:20):
Biden was up in the NBC News poll as of
October third, twenty twenty. Joe Biden ended up winning the
race no matter how we got there, by four and
a half points fifty one point three percent to forty
six point eight percent, meaning this NBC News poll was
almost ten points off. Went from fifty three to thirty
(09:42):
nine the polling data for NBC News to the actual
finish of a four and a half point margin, not fourteen.
That's one example. CBS News now their sample is a
little bit more reliable. Their margin ever, a little bit
smaller over thirty one hundred likely voters. And while NBC
News had Harris plus five, CBS News has Harris plus
(10:06):
four fifty two forty eight. That polling data ended on
September twentieth. But again let's go to the numbers from
the last time around in twenty twenty. The last time
around in twenty twenty around this time comparable date. September eighteenth,
twenty twenty two state polls were released by CBS News
(10:28):
Yugov and they read as follows. Biden leading in Florida
forty eight forty six by two, Trump barely leading in
Texas forty eight forty six by two. How did those
two states end up actual finishes twelve? Trump won Texas
by five and a half percent and Trump won Florida
(10:50):
by three and a half percent. So in the CBS
News polling by a state by state basis, if we
take this as a construct and apply the same skewing error,
we'll call it also known as bias.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
Fifty two forty eight is the national poll.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
They were off on Texas at the same time, by
way back when by three and a half points. And
again it always goes in one direction. For most of
these pollsters, they undersample or they underestimate Trump voter performance.
I think some of them have tried to adjust for that,
very few have been successful. Trafalgar may be overcompensated for
(11:32):
Trump in his favor and particularly in the midterm elections
of twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
And I'll talk to Robert more about that on Wednesday. Rasmusen.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
Looks like they might be getting it right, although most
people are viewing them right now as an outlier poll
because they do show Trump ahead by about two. But
we'll see. The proof is going to be in the
putting of the results. But the Texas result I just stated,
off by three and a half points was even worse
for CBS News because they had Biden plus two at
(12:03):
that point. Trump won by three and a half. You
do that spread, that's five and a half points off.
So you have these skewed data results that if you
apply them to the national polls, adjusting for that error
their own error.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
I didn't do this, they did.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
Then you could take a five point Harris lead in
an NBC News poll which had Biden up fourteen when
he only won by four. Guess what happens if you
swing that same error margin the other direction ten points.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
That's Trump plus five.
Speaker 3 (12:38):
Not saying it's directly appliable, applicable, but that is what
it would be. Four point polling margin for Harris in
the CBS News poll when they were off by three
and a half on Texas and they were off by
five and a half on Florida.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
Let's split the difference, we'll call it four.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
Those four points swing the other direction, and it is
a dead heat that goes Trump's favor probably in the
Electoral College Rasmusen poll, that's the most recent one they've had,
but there are numbers that are pending almost at the moment.
September eighteenth, so that's five days ago that they're pulling.
(13:18):
Last pulling sample, and that was the Trump plus two
forty nine forty seven. They have state polling coming out,
including Pennsylvania. But just to give you one final example,
by the numbers. I know this is hard to translate
over the radio where you can't see them, but I'm
trying to reinforce them through repetition at all in that
sort of thing. Final polling November two, twenty twenty three
(13:41):
days prior to the election or two days prior to election,
two seventy to Win had Biden plus eight rolling average.
Real Clear Politics had Biden plus seven point two rolling average.
Five point thirty eight had Biden plus eight point four
rolling average. The consensus was about Biden plus eight Biden
one by four and a half.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
That's a three and a half point miss.
Speaker 3 (14:05):
This is why you're hearing things from Kamala Harris.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
That don't make sense.
Speaker 3 (14:10):
If she's truly up four or five, would that candidate
in that position be saying this.
Speaker 6 (14:16):
Join me on the debate, sage, Let's have another debate.
It's more to talk about, and the voters of America
deserve sit here the conversations that I think we should
be having on set since on issues, on policies, what's
your plan, what's my plan? And we should have another
one before election day.
Speaker 1 (14:34):
She really wants another debate.
Speaker 3 (14:36):
Se Cupp, who absolutely hates Donald Trump, she thinks there
should be another debate.
Speaker 9 (14:42):
Debate part is really important because debates are an inflection
point in a campaign and they get people to tune in.
They both need a new debate, another debate. Donald Trump
needs something to sort of change the momentum, and Kamala
Harris still has to introduce herself to people. We're hearing
that over and over again from swing state voters know
her enough, so they should both want another debate.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
Does Donald Trump need to change the inflection point? Does
he need something to move the needle?
Speaker 1 (15:09):
Maybe?
Speaker 3 (15:10):
But Kamala Harris needs a debate far more than Donald
Trump does. And I'll explain over these last six weeks.
What Kamala Harris and her team both know. She did
not make the case to voters in the first debate
that she needed to make.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
She did not.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
Flesh out specific policy positions that would reassure Americans that
something would change from her tenure as vice president under
Joe Biden and policies that have largely failed the American economy,
in our foreign policy, etc. She did not do that.
She was able to say Orange Man bad throughout the debate.
People already know that. People already know what Donald Trump is,
(15:48):
who he is, where he came from, his whole biography.
And I'm telling you this, mark me down. I could
be wrong, but I'm probably right. People are going to
vote for the devil they know over the devil. They
don't know why because they thought they were voting for
the devil.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
They didn't know in Joe Biden, based on.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
A past history that here's a moderate, old guy, he's
been around a long time, he's not an extremist. He'll
return back to our norms. Elon Musk just posted about
this on x not that long ago. He supported Biden
in twenty twenty, and you were misled. There was a
bait and switch. Biden went way hard to the left
on almost every possible policy, including the border, including energy,
(16:32):
including foreign policy. He's mealy mouthing his way through the
whole Gaza war. He is not strong on Ukraine, just
for as long as it takes.
Speaker 1 (16:44):
The issues do not favor Kamala Harris.
Speaker 3 (16:46):
And I'm telling you, if there are late deciders, I
don't know why they would be late deciders. These are
probably low information, low propensity voters. But if they decide
to show up, if Donald Trump can look under every
rock and behind every bush and scare up these voters,
like Scott Presler is doing in Pennsylvania. Scott Presler just
helped flip loser in county. That's a big thing. It
(17:06):
now has more registered Republican voters than Democrats, mark my words,
that matters. He has been foraging in the Homish community.
Typically they're shut off, they only read newspapers. They have
to be appealed to in a very different, unique and
special specific way. Presler is leading that effort. And when
(17:27):
pressed on fracking, this is the biggest issue I think
that will turn this election in Donald Trump's favor. John Fetterman,
who I generally like, has no answer as to why
did he flip his position on fracking, Why did Kamala
Harris flip her position on fracking? And credit to Kristen Welker,
meet the press, she pressed him not once, not twice,
(17:49):
but three times on this.
Speaker 4 (17:50):
Well, we are talking about it because of course it
supported one hundred and twenty thousand jobs back in twenty
twenty two. Let me read you some of what you
have said about fracking in twenty sixteen a stain on Pennsylvania.
In twenty eighteen, you said you don't support fracking at all,
but then in twenty twenty two you said you absolutely
support fracking. Senator, What exactly do you like about fracking?
Speaker 5 (18:13):
Now, it's strange for somewha weird gotcha kind of taking
quotes out of out of context.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
And you know here I am.
Speaker 5 (18:21):
Now, I'm the uned State senator and I won by
five points, a record margin back in twenty two. And
again it might be an issue in fracking, and I
fully support fracking, so does the Vice President Harris. And now,
if you want to have a serious conversation about policy,
then I would challenge Trump in dvance to have one
other than talking about eating pets.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
That's all he's got. Joining us next, Josh la Fazen.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
Now he is a Democrat, but a sensible moderate Democrat,
a voice of reason that his own party could bear
listening to. As to why this election could be slipping
away from Kamala Harris. Why she is losing among a
very specific group of voters, and I'm talking about Kelly
coul Chair's son, gen Z. Males are turning away in
(19:08):
droves from the Democratic Party. Why Josh will tell us
next here on Ryan Shuley Live, and now Deep thoughts
by Vice President Kamala Harris.
Speaker 6 (19:26):
Join me on the debate, Shathe, Let's have another debate.
There's more to talk about, and this voters of America
deserve stay here the conversations that I think we should
be having on substance, on issues, on policies, what's your plan,
What's my plan? And we should have another one.
Speaker 10 (19:43):
Before election dead.
Speaker 6 (19:44):
So, the United States.
Speaker 10 (19:46):
Chairs a very important relationship, which is an alliance with
the Republic of North Korea, and it is an alliance
that is strong and enduring.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
That's why I am.
Speaker 6 (19:58):
Committed to passing a three new deal, creating clean jobs
and finally putting an end too fracking once and for all.
Speaker 1 (20:09):
Mama La Kama, just don't give a frack that.
Speaker 3 (20:14):
Of course, from Jimmy Fallon a few years ago and
my house, she has migrated on that issue, or at least.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
Claims to Ryan Schuling.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
Live back with you here on six point thirty k
how happy to be joined by our next guest. He
is a former New York State legislator in the Democratic
Party and he offers these insights for our audience today.
We really appreciate his time. Josh Laffazan our guest, Josh,
thank you so much for taking the time.
Speaker 11 (20:40):
Thanks for having me on the show.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
Now.
Speaker 3 (20:42):
I like you because you're a straight shooter and you
kind of call balls and strikes for where this race
is right now. We saw pulling over the weekend from
NBC News showing Kamala Harris up five, from CBS News
showing Harris up four.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Are you buying those numbers? And where do we go
from here?
Speaker 3 (20:59):
Sure?
Speaker 11 (21:00):
So, I'll say categorically that the only thing of certainty
is that there is uncertainty. Any pundit on television who's
saying that the election is over, that they know exactly
who's going to win, and who's going to lose is
either wrong or is the very worst disingenuous. This race
is going to come down, as we know, to ten thousand,
five thousand, maybe twenty thousand votes in Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Arizona, Pennsylvania.
(21:23):
We have no idea how this election is going to
shake out. We know it's going to be close, and
what that underscores is that every single vote matters, maybe
more than ever this year.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
Josh, you mentioned Virginia, and I'm very curious about that
because we've seen Sun Belt state polling and the newest
results from New York Times Seattle, one of the top
pollsters out there showing Trump with a lead, whether it's
durable or not.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
To your point, we don't know, we're going to find
that out.
Speaker 3 (21:49):
But in Arizona, Georgia, his lead much more narrow in
North Carolina, And what strikes me is those neighboring states
right there. In North Carolina, Trump is not leading by
as much as maybe we would assume he would be.
And in Virginia, same story other way around. Kamala Harris
doesn't appear to be leading by as wide of a
margin as one might expect in that state.
Speaker 1 (22:11):
What do you make of that? Sure?
Speaker 11 (22:13):
So what I'll caution your listeners is what I caution
my listeners is that polling is in You know, it's
a science, but quite frankly, it is a very difficult
client to pull off. In the year twenty twenty four.
In the nineteen fifties and sixties, polling was landline. You'd
call a house, they pick up, they speak to the
pulster for five ten minutes. You get really accurate data.
(22:33):
Today we know that it's harder to poll than ever.
We know that there are shy voters who do not
want to speak to polsters or who lie to voters
out of social pressure. And so what does that mean.
It means that polling exists with margins of error. Those
margins of error are going to continue to be greater.
So what I say is when I look at these
polls and if Trump is up for or Kamala is
(22:54):
up for, looking at that margin of error, it's really
a dead heat, right. And so these states where like
a New York or California or Lego Wyoming, where one
party has such a great leader over the other, you
really know who's going to win. But to me, I
think that what we're going to see this year is
really a reckoning that our polsters are having a hard
time reaching a broad section of the electrics to figure
(23:15):
out what the heck is going on in which direction
people want to go?
Speaker 1 (23:18):
What the heck is going on?
Speaker 3 (23:19):
Josh Laffers and our guests, you can find out more
on his website by that very title, Josh laffazan dot com.
That's La fa Za and former New York state legislator. Now,
you had a rather colorful district that you were pursuing
the nomination in, Josh George Santos in that third district
of New York. Tom Sawone ends up being the Democratic
(23:40):
nominee and winning that race. But if you take that
microcosm of what you've experienced personally with New Yorkers and
the fact that Donald Trump is campaigning in New York.
He was just in Uniondale for a rally there. We
saw him in the Bronx holding a rally. He's not
going to win New York on all likelihood, But how
would you explain maybe the vibe from certain New Yorkers
(24:01):
We saw the gubernatorial race, It was relatively close all
things considered. Lee's Elden ran a very good race. What
is the state of things in New York and why
do you think Trump is campaigning there?
Speaker 11 (24:10):
Sure? So, I'm a Democrat, and something I get frustrated
with is that we don't often elevate Democratic voices enough
of folks who know what it's like to win in
these swing districts and win in these swing states. I'm
a Democrat who represented a Republican district. I know what
it's like to be able to work across the island
get things done. But also I know that if I
(24:31):
didn't work across the island, I didn't show my Republican constituents,
who made up the majority of my districts, I wouldn't
have served with threeconsecutive terms as county legislator. And so
the point I make Long Island is very similar to
many other parts of the country right where. You know
I joke because you know, and I think Bill marmade
this joke. You know, the Civil War in the in
the eighteen hundreds was split neatly down. You know, a
(24:54):
line of latitude. You know that's not going to happen
in twenty twenty four. Right, We're divided within our schools,
our communities, our churches, our houses. So we live amongst
each other. And so for many of us in these
swing districts, we have to get used to rewarding politicians
who get things done and throwing politicians out of Boston
who haven't gotten a lot done. And there are folks
(25:15):
on Long Island and across the state that look at
the state of New York with a mass exivius of people,
that look at high costs of living and high taxes
and crime and say, you know, maybe it's time for
a change. We have to have compassion and empathy for
those voters.
Speaker 3 (25:29):
Josh lafazan our guest, and Josh, I want your analysis
on the campaign that's being run by Kamala Harris and
her handlers.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
There's never been anything like it.
Speaker 3 (25:39):
This is like a shotgun start in golf where she
only had X number of days from the time Joe
Biden stepped down to start a campaign, to run a campaign,
to get her message out, to get that name ID out,
and really to flesh out her policy positions. But this
has proven to be problematic. We talked a little bit
about fracking. We just heard her on Jimmy Fallon. We
(25:59):
saw her in the CN in townhousing. There's no question
I support banning fracking, and she knows that's a loser
in Pennsylvania. But how does she navigate this? How well
of a job do you think she's doing? What more
does she need to do?
Speaker 11 (26:14):
Sure, the advice that I give Kamala is the advice
that I would give any politician who's running. If you
have a long career, it is okay to change your
mind on an issue if you are honest about it. Right,
we understand And to me, this concept in society of
ideological rigidity that you somehow are pure in your righteousness
(26:36):
is you've never changed your mind on an issue is preposterous.
You know, technology is growing exponentially. We have more information
at our fingertips than we did twenty four hours ago,
let alone twenty four years ago, and things are evolving
so rapidly, and we have so much more data and
tools at our disposal. But if a politician isn't changing
their minds on an issue, perhaps it's time to change
(26:56):
the politician. And so obviously Kamala has taken positions she
is now on the other side of it. Fracten is
a good example and just continue to be honest with
the American people. You know where you evolve it and
why you're evolving. I think you know. I harken back
to this rigidity here. This is not how democracy works
because we live in a divided country with two parties,
(27:18):
and so if both parties are intractable and they're beliefs
that they're correct, nobody else, you know, I call it
being a torture genius. It's such torture being such a genius,
and everyone else is so stupid. If we're able to
get these people in power to understand that, even if
they think they know everything, they have to work across
the aisle to get things done, because getting things done
(27:40):
it's better than getting nothing done. In the United States Congress,
the Congress that we currently have is the least productive
congress in the history of the Republic. They passed only
around one hundred plus bills, many of which were renaming
post offices. And I challenge your listeners, like I challenge
anybody listening here. If you were incompetent at your job
(28:00):
and you did not deliver, you had record loan productivity,
and ninety two percent of your colleagues kept their jobs,
Perhaps we should look at the overall institution for what's wrong.
Speaker 3 (28:10):
Josh Lafizan joining us, a moderate Democrat who represented a
Republican district as he stated in the state legislature for
the state of New York for three different terms. Are
talking a lot of sense here, vote the bums out.
That is a working philosophy we've seen in the past.
But Josh, I want to break this down because you
kind of led me to my final question here. I'm
a gen exer born in nineteen seventy four. You're a
(28:32):
millennial born in nineteen ninety four. We have gen Z
voters now born in two thousand and four who are
even i would say, wildly different just in those ten
years from you than you are from me in twenty years.
And you made the point that gen Z mails have
been gravitating away from the Democratic Party and toward the
Republican Party, that there's a widening gender gap there.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
How do you explain that?
Speaker 11 (28:56):
Sure, So let's look at the statistics when it comes
to gen Z women and gen Z men, because, as
we know, this gulf in the political divide between those
two groups is at record highs. So in America, forty
percent of young women identify as liberals compared to twenty
five percent of their male peers. On the other hand,
twenty nine percent of young men identify as conservatives, compared
(29:17):
with twenty one percent of their female peers. What's far
more saggerating is that Potent suggests that more than seventy
percent of college Democrats wouldn't go on a date with
the Republicans, and thirty one percent of Republicans say the same.
Thirty seven percent of young Democrats wouldn't even be friends
of the Republicans. And this is where we have a
(29:37):
major problem. There is a new concept called inter political dating,
which is not it's not basing a reality, right, you know.
The idea that is that in twenty twenty four, we
cannot be honest and say that we can disagree on
issues and still be friends or romantic partners or neighbors.
We look at our neighbors as kew, and we look
(29:59):
at them as the enemy when there are fellow Americans,
and the very basic concept that in a pluralistic society,
we have to be able to get along with people
who disagree with us within our own party and within
the other party. And what's happening and there are major
societal trends here. Social media is allowing this next generation
to stay in their echo chamber. They are choosing who
(30:22):
they get their news from, who they get their opinions from,
and they can shut out and block people who disagree
with them. That's dangerous, and so how do we bring
people together? Quite frankly, we need to build on community
physic associations, chambers of commerce, you know, you know, you know,
community centers, you know this in real life. As the
gen Z kids say, I are l 'll tta term
(30:43):
we need to give. We need to give young people
an ability to connect this community in person, meet people
who perhaps disagree with them, who perhaps come from a
different background with them. It is healthy and it's imperative
because we cannot go on like this where members of
the next in our largest generation grow up looking at
each other with skepticism as opposed to with hope.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
He hearkens back to the blue Dog Democrats that are now,
if not an endangered species, perhaps extinct, but one of
the bright young minds on the Democratic side. I really
was looking forward to talking with him, and you can
hear exactly why Josh Lafizan at joining us his own
party would be wise to listen to him as a Republican.
Speaker 1 (31:20):
I hope they don't.
Speaker 3 (31:22):
I hope that he joins us several times now between
here and election day. Josh, it's been a great conversation.
Thank you so much, and I mean and I look
forward to talking again very soon.
Speaker 11 (31:31):
Looking forward to coming back.
Speaker 3 (31:32):
All right, Josh Laffazan joining us. Your reaction there from
a sensible Democrat. I found one.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
Five seven seven three nined. You could send those texts along,
start them. Ryan.
Speaker 3 (31:42):
You're listening to Ryan Schuling Live rounding out our number
one after this on six point thirty k how and
now your moment of Biden with the forty sixth President
of the United States, Joseph R.
Speaker 1 (31:59):
Biden.
Speaker 6 (32:00):
This is a.
Speaker 7 (32:01):
Moment when all live, all.
Speaker 1 (32:08):
The dreaming, steaming and screaming.
Speaker 8 (32:12):
Because.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
I want to thank you all for being here. And
now who am I introduce you next? Who's next becomes Mack.
Speaker 11 (32:30):
Distinguished guests, the Prime Minister of the Republic of India.
Speaker 3 (32:38):
And now we have confirmation as to why the man
pretending to be president is being hidden away from public view.
Speaker 1 (32:47):
Ryan Schewling Live continuing who is it?
Speaker 3 (32:51):
And then this gen Z female voice comes out of
nowhere on a microphone, like they were ready for this
guy to botch it up to introduce the Prime Minister
of India. I mean, wow, that's a that's a winner.
It's a real winner there.
Speaker 1 (33:08):
Five seven seven three nine. That's the text line.
Speaker 3 (33:11):
Really pleased to be joined in that previous segment by
Josh Lafazan. I've seen him on NewsNation. He's been on
with Dan Abrams and others. A level headed Democrat that
seems like an oxy moron, but he really does get it.
Speaker 1 (33:23):
I mean he said it.
Speaker 3 (33:24):
He had to win in a Republican leaning district not once,
not twice, but thrice one of my favorite words. And
he was a strong candidate against Tom Sawose for the
Democratic nomination to supplant George Santos, who was of course
removed from office in the third District of New York.
So interested to hear his thoughts. He's a bit younger,
(33:45):
but thirty now. And these gen Z mails, Kelly knows
one of them. She's raising one or has raised. I
guess past tense. He's an adult now doing his own
thing in Trebor and Kelly, you're telling me this guy's
going around red pill.
Speaker 1 (33:57):
And everybody he has. He's amazing, that's great.
Speaker 7 (34:02):
He has friend killed, Haley, Yeah, my daughter, and he
has red pilled his girlfriend Addie, so it's a good thing.
And he has red pale, red pilled his older his
roommate from freshman year at a s U.
Speaker 1 (34:21):
Did his roommate play football over the sun novels?
Speaker 7 (34:25):
No, he tried to walk on. He actually did not
make it. But he's doing the what do you call it,
the innor mural?
Speaker 1 (34:33):
Yeah, trying to stick around. I get it.
Speaker 3 (34:35):
But his friend is a young black man. He's been trumpefied.
That's awesome.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
He voted for Trump.
Speaker 7 (34:44):
I'm telling you, Haley, you know it's very strange.
Speaker 1 (34:47):
I mean, you love Trevor so well, of course it wouldn't.
Speaker 3 (34:51):
But on that note, I think it might be my
proportion black men abandoning the Democratic Party and Kamala Harris
and coming to support Donald Trump that might rescue this nation.
Speaker 1 (35:05):
After all. Well, take this time out.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
George Brocoli coming up bottom of the next hour to
talk about the King Soupers mass shooting verdict that came
in today here on six point thirty km
What's your most important issues?
Speaker 2 (00:02):
The economy, getting interest race down, getting it what we
can afford to live in America right now? It's too expensive.
Speaker 3 (00:09):
Okay, now, let me maybe ask for like a slightly
imp that question.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
But you know, if you can afford a boat, you're
not hurt.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
It's so bad, right because.
Speaker 4 (00:19):
A boat costs a lot of money and it's a
lot of upkeep.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Listen, nobody gave me. I earned everything that I've got.
I'm retired military, retired power plant and I am successful
and retired with boats jet skis because I get it right.
And everybody has that chance, whether they choose or not,
that's up to them.
Speaker 4 (00:38):
I would never try to take anything away from you
in that way.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
But what I'm asking is groceries are probably a smaller
part of your budget than say, you know someone who's.
Speaker 5 (00:48):
Like a little worse off.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
I think it's interesting that people who are a little
bit more comfortable are still so concerned about the economy.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
To use to im because I want my money to
go further, inflation to go down, I want interest rates
to go back down. I want all that. But that
covers everybody in the economy, not just me, not just
a poor, not just a ranch, and it covers everybody.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
That's something I've heard from some people.
Speaker 4 (01:12):
Tell me, if this applies to you, is like there
worry their kids aren't able to afford a.
Speaker 6 (01:16):
House or a calf.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
I trained my kids and taught my kids properly. They
have great educations and they're both successful in their careers.
Actually they're doing better than me.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
That's CNN reporting from a MAGA boat parade from over
the weekend. Ryan Shuling with you here on Ryan Shuling
Live six thirty K how you can text us at
any point during today's program on this Monday five seven, seven,
three nine, start those texts.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
Ryan Kelly could scare alongside.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
But Kelly, this guy strikes me as somebody that you
and I would have a lot of fun hanging out with.
Speaker 7 (01:45):
Oh, for sure, But don't you just love the fact
that the CNN reporter could not get out of her
own way. It's the fact that she just had to
keep going one step further, one step further, and stepping
into a bigger hole than the hole that she was
already in.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Well, he's right, nobody gave him blank you know, he
earned it, and a guy like this didn't get wealthy
enough to be able to afford a nice boat that
he's apparently going to this parade or gathering seaside with.
He didn't get wealthy by being stupid with his money.
He got wealthy by being smart with his money. He
(02:27):
got wealthy by yeah, counting nickels and dimes, not blowing
his cash on insignificant things, trying to save money and
be frugal where he can be invest money. I mean,
there's all kinds of different ways that one can accumulate wealth,
and it doesn't have to be somebody even that makes
as good a living as him.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
Listen to Kevin O'Leary here from Shark Tank.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
This is such a great bit of advice, and I
gotta admit of recent time because I've you know, been
down and out with the COVID strain that's out. I've
slipped off this wagon a little bit. But he makes
a great point and I try to adhere to this. Well,
you were too.
Speaker 8 (03:06):
Stop buying coffee for five dollars and fifty cents. You know,
you go to work and spend fifteen bucks on a sandwich?
What are you an idiot? It costs you ninety nine
cents to make a sandwich at home and bring it
with you. You start to add that up every day. It's
a ton of money. Most people, particularly working in metropolitan
cities that are just starting out on their job making
their first sixty thousand, piss away about fifteen thousand a
year on stupid stuff.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
And that's what they should stop doing.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
Kevin O'Leary did not become a mogul a billionaire by
being stupid with his money. And yes, you can go
as micro as he just said, think about it. I've
been thinking about it. You know how much money do
I waste When I take little Milo, my neighbor's mini Schnauzer, my.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Buddy, out for a walk.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
I'll take it to like dog Topia there in DTC,
and just a few doors down it's Starbucks, and I'm
out and I'm walking. I'm walking here and I, you know,
get a nice coffee when the weather was a little
bit warmer. And that's set me back five six seven
bucks for coffee that I can make it home. I
order blackout coffee. That's someone that you hear about on
(04:10):
Dan Bongino's program. They're one of us, ones of us,
many of us, and I would very strongly recommend they
have very high quality coffee.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
But I buy that that's fifteen dollars a bag or whatever.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
That's a lot, right, But when you compare that to
one iced Moca latte from Starbucks, it's insignificant. You save
so much money just by having your own coffee grinder,
your own mister coffee unit like I have at home,
making your own coffee, banking your own coffee, putting it
in a container, in a tumbler, putting it in the fridge,
(04:44):
using that and shaping those out for each day of
the week. How much money do I save by doing that?
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Tons?
Speaker 3 (04:50):
That is, if I have a proclivity for coffee, which
I do making my own sandwiches.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
Kelly knows this. I go by the King Soupers Deli Index.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
I've been absolutely mortified and frustrated and upset and angry,
and I look at people like, how can you vote
for more of this from Harris and Walls than we've
seen over these last three and a half years, where
just very good quality deli meats are now sixteen dollars
a pound and cheese cheese is about ten or so
(05:21):
dollars a pound good cheese. I'm just talking about like
roast beef, typical staples that you would make a sandwich with.
But the issue is as bad as that is, and
it's bad and it pisses me off. Kelly, by their
good graces, just orders sandwich for me from Jimmy John's today.
I hope you got one for yourself too, did you?
Speaker 7 (05:41):
I give the little one?
Speaker 3 (05:43):
Even so, how much how much do those sandwiches set
you back each.
Speaker 7 (05:48):
Between Let's see yours and mine was about thirty bucks, so.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
Fifteen dollars, just like Kevin O'Leary said, yep, that's insane.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
I live in a world and you do too, where
you can remember it wasn't that long though I know
it's not as good a quality maybe as Jimmy John's
or Jersey Mind So, which is my favorite? For the
chain restaurants that do sandwiches five dollars foot long?
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Member?
Speaker 3 (06:13):
Those from Subway. Member, that wasn't that long ago. Now
you don't do it anymore. But by that scale, yeah,
you go get a five dollar foot long from Subway,
that's a good deal. Those are gone. And even by
going to get my sixteen dollar a pound lunch meat,
sometimes I can get a sale and I'm just dancing
(06:36):
in a circle because it's twelve or thirteen dollars a pound,
I'm serious. But even doing that and making your own
sandwiches and parsoning those out for the week and setting
them up.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
Ahead of time.
Speaker 3 (06:47):
With the coffee that he just talked about that you banked,
you're saving yourself roughly about twenty dollars a day.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
That's one hundred dollars a week.
Speaker 3 (06:57):
That's fifty two hundred dollars a year, just simple math
adding up there. Now, why do I start the show
with this today? Because this election should be an open
and shutcase. It should be very straightforward. We know that
on our side, but there is just so much nebulous
nature perception about Kamala Harrison her campaign.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
She is a disaster. Now, I want to start with numbers.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
I'm a big nerd, and Robert Kahley will make his
triumphant return to this program on Wednesday. He is the
chief pollster for Trafalgar Group. And what I want to
get from Robert are a few things leading down the
stretch as we are now at almost exactly six weeks
that'll be tomorrow until election day, and what trend should
we be focusing on state polls, national polling averages, issues
(07:46):
related type.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Voters, where are they going?
Speaker 3 (07:49):
And why we're going to have all that in a
conversation with him coming up to start the show on Wednesday.
But I have a lot of people reaching out that
are absolutely panicking over the polls. And what I would
say to you is the polls aren't everything, They're not nothing.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
They're an indicator, They're an index. But keep in mind the.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
Statistical historic accuracy or lack thereof, of these very polls,
the ones that are most concerning coming out over the weekend.
First from NBC News showing Harris nationally among one thousand
registered voters. Registered voters not as good of a poll
as likely voters, but let's just keep going. Harris plus five,
(08:32):
forty nine, forty four. Now, I tell you, for this
NBC News poll to keep that with a grain of salt.
As we are Harris plus five through September seventeenth. The
closest comparable polling data I could find in twenty twenty
for the Trump Biden race by NBC News was for
(08:55):
October two and three, so it's only off by what
a week and a half there On October third of
twenty twenty NBC News, same polling outfit, You would have
to assume same polling methodology had Biden up. Want to guess, Telly,
how much did they have Biden up? You gotta take
a phone call. Fourteen fifty three to thirty nine. Joe
(09:20):
Biden was up in the NBC News poll as of
October third, twenty twenty. Joe Biden ended up winning the
race no matter how we got there, by four and
a half points fifty one point three percent to forty
six point eight percent, meaning this NBC News poll was
almost ten points off. Went from fifty three to thirty
(09:42):
nine the polling data for NBC News to the actual
finish of a four and a half point margin, not fourteen.
That's one example. CBS News now their sample is a
little bit more reliable. Their margin ever, a little bit
smaller over thirty one hundred likely voters. And while NBC
News had Harris plus five, CBS News has Harris plus
(10:06):
four fifty two forty eight. That polling data ended on
September twentieth. But again let's go to the numbers from
the last time around in twenty twenty. The last time
around in twenty twenty around this time comparable date. September eighteenth,
twenty twenty two state polls were released by CBS News
(10:28):
Yugov and they read as follows. Biden leading in Florida
forty eight forty six by two, Trump barely leading in
Texas forty eight forty six by two. How did those
two states end up actual finishes twelve? Trump won Texas
by five and a half percent and Trump won Florida
(10:50):
by three and a half percent. So in the CBS
News polling by a state by state basis, if we
take this as a construct and apply the same skewing error,
we'll call it also known as bias.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
Fifty two forty eight is the national poll.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
They were off on Texas at the same time, by
way back when by three and a half points. And
again it always goes in one direction. For most of
these pollsters, they undersample or they underestimate Trump voter performance.
I think some of them have tried to adjust for that,
very few have been successful. Trafalgar may be overcompensated for
(11:32):
Trump in his favor and particularly in the midterm elections
of twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
And I'll talk to Robert more about that on Wednesday. Rasmusen.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
Looks like they might be getting it right, although most
people are viewing them right now as an outlier poll
because they do show Trump ahead by about two. But
we'll see. The proof is going to be in the
putting of the results. But the Texas result I just stated,
off by three and a half points was even worse
for CBS News because they had Biden plus two at
(12:03):
that point. Trump won by three and a half. You
do that spread, that's five and a half points off.
So you have these skewed data results that if you
apply them to the national polls, adjusting for that error
their own error.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
I didn't do this, they did.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
Then you could take a five point Harris lead in
an NBC News poll which had Biden up fourteen when
he only won by four. Guess what happens if you
swing that same error margin the other direction ten points.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
That's Trump plus five.
Speaker 3 (12:38):
Not saying it's directly appliable, applicable, but that is what
it would be. Four point polling margin for Harris in
the CBS News poll when they were off by three
and a half on Texas and they were off by
five and a half on Florida.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
Let's split the difference, we'll call it four.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
Those four points swing the other direction, and it is
a dead heat that goes Trump's favor probably in the
Electoral College Rasmusen poll, that's the most recent one they've had,
but there are numbers that are pending almost at the moment.
September eighteenth, so that's five days ago that they're pulling.
(13:18):
Last pulling sample, and that was the Trump plus two
forty nine forty seven. They have state polling coming out,
including Pennsylvania. But just to give you one final example,
by the numbers. I know this is hard to translate
over the radio where you can't see them, but I'm
trying to reinforce them through repetition at all in that
sort of thing. Final polling November two, twenty twenty three
(13:41):
days prior to the election or two days prior to election,
two seventy to Win had Biden plus eight rolling average.
Real Clear Politics had Biden plus seven point two rolling average.
Five point thirty eight had Biden plus eight point four
rolling average. The consensus was about Biden plus eight Biden
one by four and a half.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
That's a three and a half point miss.
Speaker 3 (14:05):
This is why you're hearing things from Kamala Harris.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
That don't make sense.
Speaker 3 (14:10):
If she's truly up four or five, would that candidate
in that position be saying this.
Speaker 6 (14:16):
Join me on the debate, sage, Let's have another debate.
It's more to talk about, and the voters of America
deserve sit here the conversations that I think we should
be having on set since on issues, on policies, what's
your plan, what's my plan? And we should have another
one before election day.
Speaker 1 (14:34):
She really wants another debate.
Speaker 3 (14:36):
Se Cupp, who absolutely hates Donald Trump, she thinks there
should be another debate.
Speaker 9 (14:42):
Debate part is really important because debates are an inflection
point in a campaign and they get people to tune in.
They both need a new debate, another debate. Donald Trump
needs something to sort of change the momentum, and Kamala
Harris still has to introduce herself to people. We're hearing
that over and over again from swing state voters know
her enough, so they should both want another debate.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
Does Donald Trump need to change the inflection point? Does
he need something to move the needle?
Speaker 1 (15:09):
Maybe?
Speaker 3 (15:10):
But Kamala Harris needs a debate far more than Donald
Trump does. And I'll explain over these last six weeks.
What Kamala Harris and her team both know. She did
not make the case to voters in the first debate
that she needed to make.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
She did not.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
Flesh out specific policy positions that would reassure Americans that
something would change from her tenure as vice president under
Joe Biden and policies that have largely failed the American economy,
in our foreign policy, etc. She did not do that.
She was able to say Orange Man bad throughout the debate.
People already know that. People already know what Donald Trump is,
(15:48):
who he is, where he came from, his whole biography.
And I'm telling you this, mark me down. I could
be wrong, but I'm probably right. People are going to
vote for the devil they know over the devil. They
don't know why because they thought they were voting for
the devil.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
They didn't know in Joe Biden, based on.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
A past history that here's a moderate, old guy, he's
been around a long time, he's not an extremist. He'll
return back to our norms. Elon Musk just posted about
this on x not that long ago. He supported Biden
in twenty twenty, and you were misled. There was a
bait and switch. Biden went way hard to the left
on almost every possible policy, including the border, including energy,
(16:32):
including foreign policy. He's mealy mouthing his way through the
whole Gaza war. He is not strong on Ukraine, just
for as long as it takes.
Speaker 1 (16:44):
The issues do not favor Kamala Harris.
Speaker 3 (16:46):
And I'm telling you, if there are late deciders, I
don't know why they would be late deciders. These are
probably low information, low propensity voters. But if they decide
to show up, if Donald Trump can look under every
rock and behind every bush and scare up these voters,
like Scott Presler is doing in Pennsylvania. Scott Presler just
helped flip loser in county. That's a big thing. It
(17:06):
now has more registered Republican voters than Democrats, mark my words,
that matters. He has been foraging in the Homish community.
Typically they're shut off, they only read newspapers. They have
to be appealed to in a very different, unique and
special specific way. Presler is leading that effort. And when
(17:27):
pressed on fracking, this is the biggest issue I think
that will turn this election in Donald Trump's favor. John Fetterman,
who I generally like, has no answer as to why
did he flip his position on fracking, Why did Kamala
Harris flip her position on fracking? And credit to Kristen Welker,
meet the press, she pressed him not once, not twice,
(17:49):
but three times on this.
Speaker 4 (17:50):
Well, we are talking about it because of course it
supported one hundred and twenty thousand jobs back in twenty
twenty two. Let me read you some of what you
have said about fracking in twenty sixteen a stain on Pennsylvania.
In twenty eighteen, you said you don't support fracking at all,
but then in twenty twenty two you said you absolutely
support fracking. Senator, What exactly do you like about fracking?
Speaker 5 (18:13):
Now, it's strange for somewha weird gotcha kind of taking
quotes out of out of context.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
And you know here I am.
Speaker 5 (18:21):
Now, I'm the uned State senator and I won by
five points, a record margin back in twenty two. And
again it might be an issue in fracking, and I
fully support fracking, so does the Vice President Harris. And now,
if you want to have a serious conversation about policy,
then I would challenge Trump in dvance to have one
other than talking about eating pets.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
That's all he's got. Joining us next, Josh la Fazen.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
Now he is a Democrat, but a sensible moderate Democrat,
a voice of reason that his own party could bear
listening to. As to why this election could be slipping
away from Kamala Harris. Why she is losing among a
very specific group of voters, and I'm talking about Kelly
coul Chair's son, gen Z. Males are turning away in
(19:08):
droves from the Democratic Party. Why Josh will tell us
next here on Ryan Shuley Live, and now Deep thoughts
by Vice President Kamala Harris.
Speaker 6 (19:26):
Join me on the debate, Shathe, Let's have another debate.
There's more to talk about, and this voters of America
deserve stay here the conversations that I think we should
be having on substance, on issues, on policies, what's your plan,
What's my plan? And we should have another one.
Speaker 10 (19:43):
Before election dead.
Speaker 6 (19:44):
So, the United States.
Speaker 10 (19:46):
Chairs a very important relationship, which is an alliance with
the Republic of North Korea, and it is an alliance
that is strong and enduring.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
That's why I am.
Speaker 6 (19:58):
Committed to passing a three new deal, creating clean jobs
and finally putting an end too fracking once and for all.
Speaker 1 (20:09):
Mama La Kama, just don't give a frack that.
Speaker 3 (20:14):
Of course, from Jimmy Fallon a few years ago and
my house, she has migrated on that issue, or at least.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
Claims to Ryan Schuling.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
Live back with you here on six point thirty k
how happy to be joined by our next guest. He
is a former New York State legislator in the Democratic
Party and he offers these insights for our audience today.
We really appreciate his time. Josh Laffazan our guest, Josh,
thank you so much for taking the time.
Speaker 11 (20:40):
Thanks for having me on the show.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
Now.
Speaker 3 (20:42):
I like you because you're a straight shooter and you
kind of call balls and strikes for where this race
is right now. We saw pulling over the weekend from
NBC News showing Kamala Harris up five, from CBS News
showing Harris up four.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Are you buying those numbers? And where do we go
from here?
Speaker 3 (20:59):
Sure?
Speaker 11 (21:00):
So, I'll say categorically that the only thing of certainty
is that there is uncertainty. Any pundit on television who's
saying that the election is over, that they know exactly
who's going to win, and who's going to lose is
either wrong or is the very worst disingenuous. This race
is going to come down, as we know, to ten thousand,
five thousand, maybe twenty thousand votes in Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Arizona, Pennsylvania.
(21:23):
We have no idea how this election is going to
shake out. We know it's going to be close, and
what that underscores is that every single vote matters, maybe
more than ever this year.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
Josh, you mentioned Virginia, and I'm very curious about that
because we've seen Sun Belt state polling and the newest
results from New York Times Seattle, one of the top
pollsters out there showing Trump with a lead, whether it's
durable or not.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
To your point, we don't know, we're going to find
that out.
Speaker 3 (21:49):
But in Arizona, Georgia, his lead much more narrow in
North Carolina, And what strikes me is those neighboring states
right there. In North Carolina, Trump is not leading by
as much as maybe we would assume he would be.
And in Virginia, same story other way around. Kamala Harris
doesn't appear to be leading by as wide of a
margin as one might expect in that state.
Speaker 1 (22:11):
What do you make of that? Sure?
Speaker 11 (22:13):
So what I'll caution your listeners is what I caution
my listeners is that polling is in You know, it's
a science, but quite frankly, it is a very difficult
client to pull off. In the year twenty twenty four.
In the nineteen fifties and sixties, polling was landline. You'd
call a house, they pick up, they speak to the
pulster for five ten minutes. You get really accurate data.
(22:33):
Today we know that it's harder to poll than ever.
We know that there are shy voters who do not
want to speak to polsters or who lie to voters
out of social pressure. And so what does that mean.
It means that polling exists with margins of error. Those
margins of error are going to continue to be greater.
So what I say is when I look at these
polls and if Trump is up for or Kamala is
(22:54):
up for, looking at that margin of error, it's really
a dead heat, right. And so these states where like
a New York or California or Lego Wyoming, where one
party has such a great leader over the other, you
really know who's going to win. But to me, I
think that what we're going to see this year is
really a reckoning that our polsters are having a hard
time reaching a broad section of the electrics to figure
(23:15):
out what the heck is going on in which direction
people want to go?
Speaker 1 (23:18):
What the heck is going on?
Speaker 3 (23:19):
Josh Laffers and our guests, you can find out more
on his website by that very title, Josh laffazan dot com.
That's La fa Za and former New York state legislator. Now,
you had a rather colorful district that you were pursuing
the nomination in, Josh George Santos in that third district
of New York. Tom Sawone ends up being the Democratic
(23:40):
nominee and winning that race. But if you take that
microcosm of what you've experienced personally with New Yorkers and
the fact that Donald Trump is campaigning in New York.
He was just in Uniondale for a rally there. We
saw him in the Bronx holding a rally. He's not
going to win New York on all likelihood, But how
would you explain maybe the vibe from certain New Yorkers
(24:01):
We saw the gubernatorial race, It was relatively close all
things considered. Lee's Elden ran a very good race. What
is the state of things in New York and why
do you think Trump is campaigning there?
Speaker 11 (24:10):
Sure? So, I'm a Democrat, and something I get frustrated
with is that we don't often elevate Democratic voices enough
of folks who know what it's like to win in
these swing districts and win in these swing states. I'm
a Democrat who represented a Republican district. I know what
it's like to be able to work across the island
get things done. But also I know that if I
(24:31):
didn't work across the island, I didn't show my Republican constituents,
who made up the majority of my districts, I wouldn't
have served with threeconsecutive terms as county legislator. And so
the point I make Long Island is very similar to
many other parts of the country right where. You know
I joke because you know, and I think Bill marmade
this joke. You know, the Civil War in the in
the eighteen hundreds was split neatly down. You know, a
(24:54):
line of latitude. You know that's not going to happen
in twenty twenty four. Right, We're divided within our schools,
our communities, our churches, our houses. So we live amongst
each other. And so for many of us in these
swing districts, we have to get used to rewarding politicians
who get things done and throwing politicians out of Boston
who haven't gotten a lot done. And there are folks
(25:15):
on Long Island and across the state that look at
the state of New York with a mass exivius of people,
that look at high costs of living and high taxes
and crime and say, you know, maybe it's time for
a change. We have to have compassion and empathy for
those voters.
Speaker 3 (25:29):
Josh lafazan our guest, and Josh, I want your analysis
on the campaign that's being run by Kamala Harris and
her handlers.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
There's never been anything like it.
Speaker 3 (25:39):
This is like a shotgun start in golf where she
only had X number of days from the time Joe
Biden stepped down to start a campaign, to run a campaign,
to get her message out, to get that name ID out,
and really to flesh out her policy positions. But this
has proven to be problematic. We talked a little bit
about fracking. We just heard her on Jimmy Fallon. We
(25:59):
saw her in the CN in townhousing. There's no question
I support banning fracking, and she knows that's a loser
in Pennsylvania. But how does she navigate this? How well
of a job do you think she's doing? What more
does she need to do?
Speaker 11 (26:14):
Sure, the advice that I give Kamala is the advice
that I would give any politician who's running. If you
have a long career, it is okay to change your
mind on an issue if you are honest about it. Right,
we understand And to me, this concept in society of
ideological rigidity that you somehow are pure in your righteousness
(26:36):
is you've never changed your mind on an issue is preposterous.
You know, technology is growing exponentially. We have more information
at our fingertips than we did twenty four hours ago,
let alone twenty four years ago, and things are evolving
so rapidly, and we have so much more data and
tools at our disposal. But if a politician isn't changing
their minds on an issue, perhaps it's time to change
(26:56):
the politician. And so obviously Kamala has taken positions she
is now on the other side of it. Fracten is
a good example and just continue to be honest with
the American people. You know where you evolve it and
why you're evolving. I think you know. I harken back
to this rigidity here. This is not how democracy works
because we live in a divided country with two parties,
(27:18):
and so if both parties are intractable and they're beliefs
that they're correct, nobody else, you know, I call it
being a torture genius. It's such torture being such a genius,
and everyone else is so stupid. If we're able to
get these people in power to understand that, even if
they think they know everything, they have to work across
the aisle to get things done, because getting things done
(27:40):
it's better than getting nothing done. In the United States Congress,
the Congress that we currently have is the least productive
congress in the history of the Republic. They passed only
around one hundred plus bills, many of which were renaming
post offices. And I challenge your listeners, like I challenge
anybody listening here. If you were incompetent at your job
(28:00):
and you did not deliver, you had record loan productivity,
and ninety two percent of your colleagues kept their jobs,
Perhaps we should look at the overall institution for what's wrong.
Speaker 3 (28:10):
Josh Lafizan joining us, a moderate Democrat who represented a
Republican district as he stated in the state legislature for
the state of New York for three different terms. Are
talking a lot of sense here, vote the bums out.
That is a working philosophy we've seen in the past.
But Josh, I want to break this down because you
kind of led me to my final question here. I'm
a gen exer born in nineteen seventy four. You're a
(28:32):
millennial born in nineteen ninety four. We have gen Z
voters now born in two thousand and four who are
even i would say, wildly different just in those ten
years from you than you are from me in twenty years.
And you made the point that gen Z mails have
been gravitating away from the Democratic Party and toward the
Republican Party, that there's a widening gender gap there.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
How do you explain that?
Speaker 11 (28:56):
Sure, So let's look at the statistics when it comes
to gen Z women and gen Z men, because, as
we know, this gulf in the political divide between those
two groups is at record highs. So in America, forty
percent of young women identify as liberals compared to twenty
five percent of their male peers. On the other hand,
twenty nine percent of young men identify as conservatives, compared
(29:17):
with twenty one percent of their female peers. What's far
more saggerating is that Potent suggests that more than seventy
percent of college Democrats wouldn't go on a date with
the Republicans, and thirty one percent of Republicans say the same.
Thirty seven percent of young Democrats wouldn't even be friends
of the Republicans. And this is where we have a
(29:37):
major problem. There is a new concept called inter political dating,
which is not it's not basing a reality, right, you know.
The idea that is that in twenty twenty four, we
cannot be honest and say that we can disagree on
issues and still be friends or romantic partners or neighbors.
We look at our neighbors as kew, and we look
(29:59):
at them as the enemy when there are fellow Americans,
and the very basic concept that in a pluralistic society,
we have to be able to get along with people
who disagree with us within our own party and within
the other party. And what's happening and there are major
societal trends here. Social media is allowing this next generation
to stay in their echo chamber. They are choosing who
(30:22):
they get their news from, who they get their opinions from,
and they can shut out and block people who disagree
with them. That's dangerous, and so how do we bring
people together? Quite frankly, we need to build on community
physic associations, chambers of commerce, you know, you know, you know,
community centers, you know this in real life. As the
gen Z kids say, I are l 'll tta term
(30:43):
we need to give. We need to give young people
an ability to connect this community in person, meet people
who perhaps disagree with them, who perhaps come from a
different background with them. It is healthy and it's imperative
because we cannot go on like this where members of
the next in our largest generation grow up looking at
each other with skepticism as opposed to with hope.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
He hearkens back to the blue Dog Democrats that are now,
if not an endangered species, perhaps extinct, but one of
the bright young minds on the Democratic side. I really
was looking forward to talking with him, and you can
hear exactly why Josh Lafizan at joining us his own
party would be wise to listen to him as a Republican.
Speaker 1 (31:20):
I hope they don't.
Speaker 3 (31:22):
I hope that he joins us several times now between
here and election day. Josh, it's been a great conversation.
Thank you so much, and I mean and I look
forward to talking again very soon.
Speaker 11 (31:31):
Looking forward to coming back.
Speaker 3 (31:32):
All right, Josh Laffazan joining us. Your reaction there from
a sensible Democrat. I found one.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
Five seven seven three nined. You could send those texts along,
start them. Ryan.
Speaker 3 (31:42):
You're listening to Ryan Schuling Live rounding out our number
one after this on six point thirty k how and
now your moment of Biden with the forty sixth President
of the United States, Joseph R.
Speaker 1 (31:59):
Biden.
Speaker 6 (32:00):
This is a.
Speaker 7 (32:01):
Moment when all live, all.
Speaker 1 (32:08):
The dreaming, steaming and screaming.
Speaker 8 (32:12):
Because.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
I want to thank you all for being here. And
now who am I introduce you next? Who's next becomes Mack.
Speaker 11 (32:30):
Distinguished guests, the Prime Minister of the Republic of India.
Speaker 3 (32:38):
And now we have confirmation as to why the man
pretending to be president is being hidden away from public view.
Speaker 1 (32:47):
Ryan Schewling Live continuing who is it?
Speaker 3 (32:51):
And then this gen Z female voice comes out of
nowhere on a microphone, like they were ready for this
guy to botch it up to introduce the Prime Minister
of India. I mean, wow, that's a that's a winner.
It's a real winner there.
Speaker 1 (33:08):
Five seven seven three nine. That's the text line.
Speaker 3 (33:11):
Really pleased to be joined in that previous segment by
Josh Lafazan. I've seen him on NewsNation. He's been on
with Dan Abrams and others. A level headed Democrat that
seems like an oxy moron, but he really does get it.
Speaker 1 (33:23):
I mean he said it.
Speaker 3 (33:24):
He had to win in a Republican leaning district not once,
not twice, but thrice one of my favorite words. And
he was a strong candidate against Tom Sawose for the
Democratic nomination to supplant George Santos, who was of course
removed from office in the third District of New York.
So interested to hear his thoughts. He's a bit younger,
(33:45):
but thirty now. And these gen Z mails, Kelly knows
one of them. She's raising one or has raised. I
guess past tense. He's an adult now doing his own
thing in Trebor and Kelly, you're telling me this guy's
going around red pill.
Speaker 1 (33:57):
And everybody he has. He's amazing, that's great.
Speaker 7 (34:02):
He has friend killed, Haley, Yeah, my daughter, and he
has red pilled his girlfriend Addie, so it's a good thing.
And he has red pale, red pilled his older his
roommate from freshman year at a s U.
Speaker 1 (34:21):
Did his roommate play football over the sun novels?
Speaker 7 (34:25):
No, he tried to walk on. He actually did not
make it. But he's doing the what do you call it,
the innor mural?
Speaker 1 (34:33):
Yeah, trying to stick around. I get it.
Speaker 3 (34:35):
But his friend is a young black man. He's been trumpefied.
That's awesome.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
He voted for Trump.
Speaker 7 (34:44):
I'm telling you, Haley, you know it's very strange.
Speaker 1 (34:47):
I mean, you love Trevor so well, of course it wouldn't.
Speaker 3 (34:51):
But on that note, I think it might be my
proportion black men abandoning the Democratic Party and Kamala Harris
and coming to support Donald Trump that might rescue this nation.
Speaker 1 (35:05):
After all. Well, take this time out.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
George Brocoli coming up bottom of the next hour to
talk about the King Soupers mass shooting verdict that came
in today here on six point thirty km
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