Stock Picking Insights | Conservative Investing | Audio Support for stockpickinginsights.com
Insights for long-term stock pickers. Make better decisions when faced with the inherent uncertainty of stock picking. Hi! I’m André. Here’s my investing style: Fundamental approach Ten year timeframes or more Very concentrated, with almost 90% of my invested portfolio in a few individual companies Low turnover: a median and average of two individual stock trades per year Circle of competence: consumer brands Geographies: Europe and US
Episodes
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/investing-in-timber-vs-buying-pulp-stocks
00:00 Intro
00:12 Summary
3:00 Investing in timber: oligopoly controls the market
4:58 There is also geographical concentration…
6:43 Final remarks
11:45 Action points
Summary
- Portugal is a huge Eucalyptus Globulus producer;
- Portuguese timber investors depend on Navigator and Altri;
- Pulp makers have other dependencies, like BHK...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/altri-production-costs-overview
0:00 Intro
0:17 Summary
3:30 Altri production costs
7:54 Summing it up
9:05 Action points
Summary
- Altri produces mainly BHKP, most of which BEKP;
- Altri’s operational costs are ~500€/ton;
- Its operational efficiency gains are getting more and more limited.
Action points
- Is the product that my companies make a commodit...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/inditex-shipping-and-returns-analysis
00:00 Intro
00:10 Summary
03:15 Inditex shipping and returns: Europe
07:34 Inditex shipping and returns: United Kingdom (UK)
12:30 Inditex shipping and returns: United States (US)
15:16 To sum it up
18:19 Action points
Summary
- Inditex (Zara) ships the fastest, and is the most flexible when it comes to returns;
- Nike has free shi...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/inditex-store-profitability-per-store-per-m²
0:00 Intro
0:14 Summary
1:22 Inditex store profitability on a per store basis
3:31 Inditex store profitability on a per m² basis
5:51 Inditex profitability per concept, per m²
7:37 Action points
Summary
- Inditex has an EBIT/store of 450k€, compared to H&M’s 275k€/store;
- Their revenue hovers around 5000€/m² of selling a...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/inditex-expansion-of-physical-stores
0:00 Intro
0:14 Summary
4:10 Inditex expansion by physical store count
8:29 Action points
Summary
- Stores play a logistics and advertising role today, being an important chess piece;
- There’s 94k potential store openings worldwide, with emphasis on China and U.S.;
- Inditex expansion potential is high because the fashion retail market i...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/investing-is-a-zero-sum-selfish-game
0:00 Intro
0:18 Summary
2:15 Passive ownership = zero-sum
4:48 Action points
Summary
- The company you own produces new goods and services, so it isn’t a zero-sum case;
- Passive ownership is useless to everyone but yourself;
- Entrepreneurship is a direct contribution to the world, unlike stock picking.
Action points
-
...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/mcdonalds-expansion-potential
00:00 Intro
00:15 Summary
01:59 Mcdonald’s expansion due to volume
03:32 Mcdonald’s expansion sensitivity analysis
10:01 To sum it up
Summary
- The U.S. is the benchmark of restaurants per 100K, with a value of ~4;
- China is 1/3 to 1/2 of the potential restaurant count upside;
- Almost all of the restaurant count growth comes from developing co...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/stock-analysis-checklist-updated-version
0:00 Intro
1:20 A few quick notes
3:24 Stock analysis checklist: latest questions
Because new analyses were made since then, new questions came in too. This is an update to that checklist, and here’s the updated pdf I promised.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2uFjecBDw6KDEYA6Zbk7ah?si=aOPLtnfPRnuhdaEF_eMeZw&nd=1
Website: http...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/shareholder-focused-companies-no-thanks
00:00 Intro
00:12 Summary
02:11 Facebook’s shareholder focused approach
05:47 Alphabet: shareholder focused or not?
12:14 To end…
15:22 Action points
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2uFjecBDw6KDEYA6Zbk7ah?si=aOPLtnfPRnuhdaEF_eMeZw&nd=1
Website: http://stockpickinginsights.com/
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Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/bitcoin-disruption-in-financial-services
00:00 Intro
00:13 Summary
02:34 Bitcoin disruption: merchant side
07:07 Credit cards, fraud and privacy
09:04 Bye Paypal, bye Wise, bye Revolut
11:36 Bitcoin disruption via Lightning Network (Strike)
20:03 Competition is good
25:57 Action points
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2uFjecBDw6KDEYA6Zbk7ah?si=aOPLtnfPRnuhdaEF_eMeZw&nd=1
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/the-impact-of-dividend-in-total-returns
00:00 Intro
01:15 Summary
02:17 Impact of dividend distributions: the good and the bad
07:25 Do you want risk or return? The impact of dividend in your portfolio
10:05 Action points
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2uFjecBDw6KDEYA6Zbk7ah?si=aOPLtnfPRnuhdaEF_eMeZw&nd=1
Website: http://stockpickinginsights.com/
Facebook: https://fb.co...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/sp-500-historical-returns-with-dividends
00:00 Intro
00:27 Should we look at historical returns with or without dividends?
01:29 Accumulating (Acc) v Distributing (Dist) ETF’s
04:15 A look at S&P 500 historical returns with dividends
05:24 What about over a 20 year period?
08:25 40 Year rolling S&P 500 CAGR
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2uFjecBDw6KDEYA6Zbk7ah?si=aO...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/sp500-rolling-returns-10-20-and-40-years
0:00 Intro
0:23 Why bother as a stock picker?
1:48 S&P 500 Rolling 10 Year Returns
4:40 A bigger picture: 20 Year Returns
6:43 The ultimate boss: 40 year S&P 500 CAGR’s
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2uFjecBDw6KDEYA6Zbk7ah?si=aOPLtnfPRnuhdaEF_eMeZw&nd=1
Website: http://stockpickinginsights.com/
Facebook: https://fb.com/st...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/return-on-capital-formula-conservative-approach
00:00 Intro
00:27 Return on capital by Joel Greenblatt
02:18 What’s the problem with return on capital?
04:33 So, is ROE and ROCE ok?
05:58 My return on capital proposal
09:04 To end…
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2uFjecBDw6KDEYA6Zbk7ah?si=aOPLtnfPRnuhdaEF_eMeZw&nd=1
Website: http://stockpickinginsights.com/
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/dcf-alternative-reinvested-capital
00:00 Intro
00:22 Quick DCF model overview
02:03 DCF alternatives that are not CAPM related
05:00 The DCF alternative is: reinvested capital
08:36 DCF alternative: assumptions and adjustments
11:12 Where is the money going?
14:04 Summing up reinvested capital model as a DCF alternative
The reinvested capital model is meant to be used in growth com...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/spotify-churn-rate-39-hurdle
00:00 Intro
00:12 Spotify doesn’t fully disclose churn rates
03:41 Spotify churn rate sensitivity analysis
06:53 Final remarks
Spotify churn rates are just one of the forces that move revenues, although a concerning one: a 39% hurdle. If these assumptions are right, they are 10 to 20% short in revenue growth.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/conservative-investing-measures-for-stock-pickers
00:00 Intro
00:24 Basic guidelines for conservative investing
01:58 Accounting for inflation in conservative investing
04:36 Getting specific
07:25 Normalize some things, but not others
10:04 Summing it up
Conservative investing is playing on the safer side and widening the margin of safety. The main focus is to protect purchasing p...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/twitter-mdau-doesnt-tell-the-whole-story
0:00 Intro
1:36 From Twitter MAU to Twitter mDAU: History
6:25 Can mDAU substitute MAU?
We will take a look at part of Twitter’s user growth history by analysing Twitter mDAU and MAU. The objective is to analyse the company as a potential investment.
One of the most important metrics in a social media advertising company is user growth. User...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/index...
0:00 Intro
1:04 Why aren’t you buying the stock?
2:56 Indexing as an alternative
8:45 Conclusion
Indexing can be an alternative for a stock picker with parked cash. Is this a good idea?
Depending on the type of investor you are, you may be holding a hot potato (cash). And indexing may not help if you usually buy large-cap growth stocks, based on the historical ...
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/indit...
00:00 Intro
00:19 Where does Inditex growth in profits come from?
05:06 Volume as a revenue source
09:28 Pricing and pricing power
14:04 Inditex growth from product mix
17:16 Inditex growth in profit from cost reductions
18:36 Headcount savings
23:45 Profiting for a longer period
29:32 Putting it all together
Today we are going to estimate Inditex growth rates based on fu...
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