Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Welcome to stats and scheme. Iam Sean's side, joined as always by
my good friend Taje Seth. Weare back from Detroit with scratch of throats
and ibags. It was an absolutelyamazing experience, Eric Eager, thank you
very much for making that happen.We're able to be at the draft,
talk to players, talk to mediamembers the most importantly, spend some time
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with each other so we could sharetakes about the important things in life,
like what your letterbox rating distribution shouldlook like. Because you got to drive
home instead of flying home like therest of us. How are you doing?
How was your draft weekend? Thedraft weekend was awesome. I really
enjoyed hanging out with you, hangingout with Ben Brown Sambrook House. Our
friend Argent Menon from PFF joined usas well. That was a great time.
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And I'm work shopping to take abouthow it's tougher to be a football
player in season, obviously, rightthan a football fan. That's very obvious
to most people, But I thinkit's actually tougher to be a football fan
on draft weekend than it is tobe one of the players that's getting drafted,
just because we go through the wholeweekend or following the draft. We're
talking about it. My voice.I had no voice yesterday. You know,
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I was pretty tired. I'm surethat the players who got drafted had
a lot more you know, timeto to rest and to sleep. So
that's kind of the take that I'mworking on right now. That's a garbage
take. As you know, Iappreciate you. I'm not I'm not even
to entertain that one. Some thingsthat I do want to entertain, though,
the like the cookies in the cateringroom. Those were really dangerous.
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There were awesome, particularly sugar cookies. The Wi Fi just like getting like
six hundred carries between everyone's awesome.I'd actually thought the whole city Detroit really
did a good job. I knowthat Detroit obviously close to your heart,
but you could feel the energy likemaybe I was. It was in my
head, but like so many peopleon all like the public transportation, everyone
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like just so so excited to bethere. I thought it fit well in
Detroit. I thought we fit wellin Detroit. Cash and today we're going
to talk about some of our favoritefits from the twenty twenty four NFL Draft,
And you're cool that I'm gonna start. I think I kind of went
in pick order a little bit andthen we threw some years on a little
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bit towards the end, but Ithink have to start. I'm gonna try
and stayway from quarterback. I feellike that's kind of that's cheating, But
I'm gonna go roma Dunza to start. He was one of the first press
conferences that I got to speak withto him a little bit, just asking
him kind of about ball tracking andjust talking about his process and kind of
how he's kind of trained things.And really the most important thing is he
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goes to Chicago where you have ShaneWaldron, He's gonna love eleven personnel reritage.
Yeah, sixty four point two percentof the time they used eleven personnel
in Seattle last season, So Ithink he's gonna bring that over to Chicago,
especially with these receivers. Yeah,exactly. You got a Dunsay,
you got Keenan Allen, you gotDJ Moore. And I think for me,
like last year, we did alot of the personnel diversity, right,
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which, like I'm always gonna lovethat. I'm never gonna pretend like
that's not super important to me,but for me, I think this year,
I'm like straying away from like positionand I'm not saying oh with Dunsay
is someone who people think is positionless, but like I want players to be
able to like fit into roles andthen like like what is a room that
they're in. So, for example, the Chicago receiving room is a room
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that I feel positive about. Solike I love O versatility. Yeah,
can you do a million things.You're obviously going to be asked you a
lot of things, but like reallylike you kind of have to have like
a discreete like this is what you'regood at. Like the Isaiah Isaiah Simmons
is the easy example of something thatI think maybe we everyone got burned on
where it's like you can do somany different things, but if you don't
find like one thing you're really goodat, like not gonna have a good
time. Yeah, I agree withthat. I think That's what makes Roma
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Dunza so special and like so excitingfor his fit in Chicago is you look
at his reception perception that Matt Harmondoes and he was successful above average at
being successful at every single route thatyou can run. I think when you
look at his fit with Keenan Allenbeing a high end separator, DJ Moore
being a guy who can get open. But I think I see him as
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like a big yards after catch likeI see Roma. Dunza is like kind
of fitting in in like those thosedeeper developing route concepts because he has that
versatility to do to do everything.The thing I want to ask you about
is like we look at Shane Waldronlast year add DK Metcalf had Tyler Lockett,
who are established veteran receivers, andthen Jackson Smith the JIGBA had a
little bit of trouble getting going inSeattle. Do you think that was more
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of a JSN thing, more ofa Waldron thing, a combination of both.
How do you kind of see thatand like how it might apply to
a Dounze. Yeah, that doesworry me, but obviously you know,
different player, different situation, andalso maybe that like in Seattle Metcalf and
Locket like so clearly one and two, and I do think Chicago's gonna understand,
like, hey, Dounza is notgoing to be the three for that
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long. Like even if you ifyou if you're gonna even start to consider
King Allen as the two. Likethe goal is that A is gonna be
at worst the two, right,Obviously, you'd love for him to be
able to overtake DJ more over time. So even thinking about like Waldron a
little more, like you know,sometimes he gets a little cute, and
I think he loves his tight endsand wants to get I mean then to
thirteen personnel sometimes in Seattle as well. So I'm hoping, I guess,
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Tage. I think I'm hope hopingthat for this one where it's like,
you know, it's a different player, but also I think it's got to
be cognistant, right, it's stilla rookie receiver, right, Tason.
I feel like rookie receivers, likethe average rookie receiver is not going to
be just getting a thousand yards rightexactly. We had them projected right under
a thousand yards on a rookie draftguide. You look at some of his
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target share projections and it's gonna belower just because there's two established receivers already
there. So I think it isgonna be a little bit of a transition
process for all of these rookie receiversand for someone like Adunesa where he doesn't
have to be the guy from dayone. I think that will be really
helpful for both his development and alsohis confidence in the league. Yeah,
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I do buy into the hay likethere are veterans above you that are going
to be able to kind of likeshow you the way in different ways.
And I would love to be ina room where you have receivers that are
that experience. And I don't knowwhen we get to division previews later on,
I'm kind of close to this season, Like how irresponsible are you going
to allow me to be about theChicago Bears is going to be a question.
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Where is your Bears hype training?Like Tajon Caleb Williams is there talking
to everyone, look so unbelievably charming. I just like, like so clearly.
I think just like gets it inso many ways. It's just like
part of a new wave of quarterbacks. I'm reading so hard. I know
maybe you maybe you're not hoping forthem to win NFC North, but like
level one to ten, how areresponsible is it to say the Bears might
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win the ns North to preface that, I think it would be a tenant
irresponsibility. But what about you?I think it's a fair long shot to
make. I mean, if you'relooking at teams that are third to win
their division, you know by theodds, like the Bears are probably one
of the better teams from that standpointif you're looking to make it that just
because they have the long right tailwhere Caleb Williams comes in and he can
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have like, let's say seventy fiveeighty percent of a CJ. Stroud rookie
season in and that's really what youwould need with those receivers in place.
And then if you if you're ableto carry over the level that the defense
played at then the second half oflast season, then you're looking at a
team that is going to be topten, top twelve, you know,
in terms of our team ratings.So I think like that is a fair
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fair bet to make. There's notmany teams in the league where they're projected
to be third in their division,but they also have a decent shot of
making the playoffs. Yeah, Ialmost got some. Our good friend Sam
Brookhouse to I was, I'm onthe lower end of the eight and a
half. I think they're over under. That felt a little high. I
couldn't feel like fully convince him fora no. Monetary value bet of course.
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All right, let's get to ournext one. L two law too.
This was a I mean, itwas so fun to see him getr
Like you could feel the excitement andlike just the I mean, this is
obviously like someone who's so so happy. Yeah, he was literally medically retired
from the sport of football to beable to do that, to be able
to the first defender taken at fifteentage about that one. I did like
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it a lot. I think thatwhen you look at him and just how
athletic their defensive line is now withwith the amount of resources that they put
into it, you know, tradinga first round pick for Dafarest Buckner,
using another first on Onquitdy Pay andthen another one here on on Lot too.
Like they've they've put a lot intothat room, and I think that
they're gonna get a really good rotationin their defense. And you know,
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Argent was was bringing this up onour post draft show. You play a
lot of Cover three. You know, your your team that really wants to
get home with their defensive line sothat you can kind of you can kind
of marry that on the back end. And I think a Lot two will
provide that for them. Yeah,Ibukom Buckner, Pey Stewart, That's that's
a good room. That's like,that's a room that I think it's easy
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to get excited about him. Igot to talk to ask him about like,
hey, I think he wins insidefairly often and he's good at it.
And he was talking about, youknow, just really really hammering down
like, hey, when I'm gonnamake my outside move, this is how
many steps I take when I'm goinginside. I have to make my move
on like a step earlier, andtalking about studying guys like Aaron Donald being
able to do that and Tage.I feel like, now I'm just like
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a sucker for these good quotes.I don't want I don't want to fall
too into it. But his tapeshows it that he's that he's good at
that, and the kind of samewith a dnsday where he doesn't just have
to be like if a dune thatdoesn't get two thousand receiving yards, like,
it's not the problem, right,that's not the expectation. Similar with
a lot of like if he doesn'thave whatever, twelve sacks, like that
room as a whole kind of isa positive and then they still got a
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receiver later on. I thought earlyon, I was like, yeah,
you know, is it a BrianThomas junior kind of landing spot? They
get ad Mitchell? How'd you kindof end up on Adi Mitchell? So
Ady Mitchell from where he's being mockedlike, didn't really fit with his production
profile. We've talked about yards forout run is like a pretty decent predictor
of NFL success, and I don'tlike the top receivers in this class.
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He was at the lower end ofthat, but where he ended up going
later in the in the second round, was like a much better fit for
him, you know, draft capitalwise, like Colts played the third most
eleven personnel in the league last year. They already have Michael Pittman Junior and
Josh Downs, so you can reallyadd him into that room and kind of
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work with that. And I thinkI'm excited to see what Shane Stiken schemes
up with him, and also whatAnthony Richardson looks like when throwing to him.
I need so badly the Anthony Richardsonlike in shorts and like a dry
fit just throwing the ball in practice. I need it so bad. I
need to know that our guy ishealthy. I need him back, I
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need him in our live stage.Going next, let's go to one of
your big draft rushes who we gotnext. So let's talk about Byron Murphy,
who ended up going to Seattle,which is where we talked about him
as a possibility, which was prettyexciting. I just think, like you
mentioned this before too, like himand Leonard Williams together is going to wreak
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a lot of havoc on opposing offensivelines. Yeah, I mean Williams Hankins
together, you know. I wasWe had the conversation last week, like,
oh, do you want DT oneor kind of maybe edged like a
Tier two guy, And I feellike I've redapted my previous answer, And
I think that like just take thebetter the better player, because you can,
like you just need something to beable to build your rush around.
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And I will say I think likeMike McDonald has done like a lot of
work for the league in terms ofthis specific thing. Obviously there's tons of
coaches over time that have but like, I mean, if you're able to
get get like a really really strongpass rush without like a like a Tier
one edge, that is I thinkan incredibly special trait to have as a
coach. And if you know youhave that, like you know you can
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use that to your advantage and takeMurphy who I mean for a lot two
and Murphy to be the first twodefensive players taken one great but like at
fifteen and sixteen is it's awesome likethat, It's crazy how the offensive draft
kind of fell and gave these guysan opportunity. I'm glad that you brought
up like Mike McDonald and like kindof how he builds his pass rushing plan
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because I do think that it's gonnabe pretty defensive tackle focused like it was
in Baltimore, where he's gonna relya lot on someone like Byer Murphy,
who had an eight point six pressurerate in proximity, which was the first
amongst defensive tackles in this class threepoint four to four second time to pressure
on average, which was the secondbest. So like, he's someone who
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can get home often and also gethome quickly, and I think you can
build a pass rush plan around thatwhen you know that the opposing offensive line
has to count for someone like thaton the interior, and then what that
allows you to do with your edgeswhere they get to go up against tackles
who have to play on an islandmore often. Yeah, maybe MafA and
nos A a little bit better thanI gave kind of credit for when we
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talked about it last week. Seethat it was going to be interesting.
One. Obviously you got the fortynine Ers, the Rams. There resurger
Cardinals who got like the most newplayers. I feel like i've anyone ever
on their team. But I dothink teams think first, like, hey,
our first goal is we need towin the division. And if you're
going to play the forty nine Ersand the Rams were now Sean mcvay's loading
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up everywhere inside, we're gonna rundue until until the cows come on the
three nine ers, like you know, they're going to get into all their
kind of fun run looks, buildinginside out, Like do we really do
that kind of into your part ofthe defense. I'm good with that,
right, Yeah, No, Iagree with that. I think that's a
great point to mention, is likeknowing who you're gonna play six times a
year and where they're putting a lotof resources into. And I think both
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the Rams and the forty nine Ersare physical offenses. Like you can feel
it when you watch them. Youcan see the investment. The Rams just
made in probably the heaviest uh,you know, guard left guard, center,
right guard trio that we've ever seenin the NFL. So it's like
you got to have someone that canmatch up against that. And I think
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that the the Seahawks have put enoughinvestment into their defensive line to at least
have an attempt to have a counterat what these these other offenses are going
to have. Yeah, we're talkingat Sam Brocass this weekend about like him
like having to try and like puton weight when you playing at Tulane and
thinking about well, like the Rams, uh like food services staff, they're
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they're in for a ride between theinterior offensive life. Hearing hearing Sam talk
about his playing career at Tulane andeven in high school. Aaron dun Brown
talked about his early DFS days whenwhen he was building midles for that and
then you talking about your college experiencesas well. That was that was awesome
to get the nostalgia this draft weekend. I don't I don't really have any
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nostalgia to share yet. I guessI gotta work on that. Well,
the best thing was us like outand about in Detroit and just a random
person coming out and be like twoTage and being like, hey, I
think I played pickaball with your dadwith age. I mean that like put
Papa sets Jersey in the in thein the rafters. If you're if you're
getting stopped on the street about yourdad playing pickable, I mean that is
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that is that is the stuff oflegends. Yeah, I mean that that
was That was funny. I'm gladto know that people on here, let's
listening, will know that at leastsomeone in my family is someone athletic,
even if I'm sitting behind the computerand just doing these analytics. Yeah,
speaking to athletes. We've got jiredverse for the Rams. That's the next
one that I kind of wanted tomention. I hope we going in we're
thinking are the Rams going to gooffense or defense? I thought, again,
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you know the way that the boardfelt or felt like a lot of
offensive players going on so early,jervis you're building out that defensive line.
You got Kobe Turner Byron Young fromlast year. I think vers can hopefully
you hope he can set that edgein the run game. A little bit
still working on his pass rush moves, but you know, after the Rams
hitting on some pieces last year,I think that could make you feel more
confident. I'm glad that you broughtup his run defense because I do think
that is something that they can reallylean into. That's something he showed up
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well in the the stats bomb datathat we have. You know, the
scouts identified him as someone who whocan tackle really well, you know,
and is pretty powerful. So Ithink like he can he can kind of
use his his you know, toolsthere to really work on that and then
to go on onto the defensive linethat already has some when his talented as
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Kobe Turner. I'm excited to watchthe dynamic between them. Yeah. One
of my enmies I did with StuJackson from the Rams, and he was
kind of talking about, you know, McVeigh like kind of wants to pick
players that he wouldn't really love togo against. So I do kind of
like that idea. Maybe not thebest team building philast year, but I
like it from a just like athought kind of perspective, like hey,
you're you know, like I knowthis player would give me this sort of
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difficulty. It would be hard tokind of work around. I wanted to
ask, like, I feel likePoqua is the like darling of the NFL,
and so if we knew his production, and so if he was and
we went back and changed his draftslot, like how high would you think
it's like okay to have drafted himagain? This is a this is you
already have the knowledge of exactly whathis production would be and maybe like would
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be different than another team. Fine, say with whatever team it would look
like that, like the top tenguy at that point. Yeah, I
know, I do think he's atop ten guy for sure. Like I
don't think that there would be thatmuch of a debate there because I mean,
you look at Puku and Kua andhis production profile last year, like
you don't rank eighth in the leagueand yards for out run on accident,
Like you gotta be doing something somethingreally well to end up there. He's
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clearly very, very talented and veryproductive in the NFL. The question I
got asked on Twitter one time,like this is a pretty tough questions,
Like you, no, I haveto answer it, but like if he
was in this year's draft, wherewould he have gone relative to the other
receivers. Is this with U andthis is with knowing? With the knowledge,
Oh man, I mean it washard to think, like it would
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be hard to think that he'd beabove Harrison, probably not above neighbors.
Uh maybe after a Doe's there.I don't know. Yeah, I think
maybe kind of slot him at four. And it is really hard to like
separate like the things he does well. I think he certainly benefits from the
RAMS environment that he's in. Ithink early on there were some things that
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not that he was like not askedto do that because he wasn't able to
do it. But like you haveyour role, you run, you run,
you run that like you're gonna beopen, You're able to kind of
find that area. And yeah,I mean obviously the definition of surplus value
over the next another receiver that obviouslywe all hope for to add a ton
of super surplus value. Brian ThomasJunior for the Jaguars. This is cool.
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I mean they trade Were you justexcited by by it because it was
a trade back? I actually was. I mean they picked up a future
third and fourth, which is likewhat we always preached for. It It
was, it was, It wasawesome. It was a great trade by
the Jags. All Right, thisis time for the interest. I was
gonna say this for the end.Uh. You can't pick up how rows
and phone calls. I've said itbefore. Yeah, block is number one.
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Uh, and I just need updatedtrade charts, Like I it really
does feel like some people are ourteams are still using or it feels like
maybe they're using some of that's outdated. But I love it feels like the
EU strategy. It's like, Okay, we're at this pick, We're gonna
look at the next fifteen teams.We're gonna call all of them and say,
hey, like do you want thisplayer, like make sure you get
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him fancy fancy, and like forthem to be landing like third picks late
late in the day is awesome.And that that's why it felt like when
like the coming out of the draft, I was trying to be the car.
I'm not just gonna be positive aboutthe Eagles because we love how Howard
Roseman and the things that he does. But it feels like stealing sometimes.
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No, it does. I thinkyou're right about what you said. They
were like, I think they justcall every team like and that's happening in
ten picks and seeing if they wantto give up like a third or for
it to move up. Because Ihave heard that Howie Roseman has some sort
of software or like something where hehas all thirty two gms in the league
and like their phone numbers on thereand he can just click and like it'll
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dial whatever GM he wants to calland he can make a trade just like
that. Like that's that's how youtie the record for most trades on a
single day of the draft. Yeah, oh okay, do you think he
just ran it up At the end, he was like, look like I
got ninety eight points. Will Igotta get to one hundred. It felt
like it was it felt like hewas trying to get that record exactly.
I'm sure someone whispered to him inthe room. They're like, hey,
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like you're one You're one trade awayfrom from the record, and he's like
he's like, okay, I gottado this. It's like, uh,
you know when when a basketball playeris a rebound away from a triple double
and like his entire team just clearsout and like lets him like get that
last rebound. Like that, That'swhat it felt like on with his last
trade. Yeah, you gotta knowthat. Yeah, I love that,
and uh yeah, I mean afterI had blackout Roadsen's dumber, I'm sure
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he would. He would then havelike a software to make it look like
I don't know, like it changesnumber in my phone or something, some
other name would come up and thenhe would get through. But we're talking
about Brian Thomas Junior and his kindof post lecture press commerce. I I
want to talk to him a littleabout just like being a vertical threat,
and he mentioned separation just like atdifferent parts of the route, helping to
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make him a more vertical threat.And Tange, I mean, separation is
my love language as a receiver.I'm so glad you you brought that up
and you asked him a question aboutthat, which is super cool to see
because he was number one in whatI called Jamar Chase metric, which is
separation while the ball is in theair, so like from the time that
the ball leaves the quarterback hands towhere it when it hits the receiver,
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he was creating space between him andhis nearest defender better than any other receiver
in this draft class. So Ireally think, like when you look at
Trevor Lawrence last year and like wherehe placed some of the passes that he
was throwing and Ian Hard It's putout a video on this that went viral
where it's like, this is howmany times Trevor Lawrence was this close to
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a touchdown and like the ball wouldeither drop out of the receiver's hands or
he wouldn't be able to drag hisfoot in. I think Brian Thomas Juniors
might be able to solve some ofthose issues, just because he can create
a little bit of room for errorbetween him and the defender while Trevor Lawrence
is throwing to him. Titch,I feel like I'm becoming a little bit
of like an anti contested catch guy. Obviously, you want your receiver to
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have that skill. That's really important, but like the highlights of dunking on
a cornerback are fantastic, but Iwould rather see the highlight where you're just
three yards in front of him.Are there the ards and left of him,
three d to the right of him? Am I am I being silly?
I am am? I just likebeing not fun enough for being I
keep on thinking, like the contestedcatches, they're they're so hard to replicate
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and like two bank on that isso hard and to separate at the NFL
level is unbelievably ard. I'm notgonna pretend like it's easy. I'm not
prepared like I receiver can do itlike there the windows are really small,
but like give me one, giveme the contested catches instead, or sorry,
don't give the contestant to catches.You do not give me the contested
catches, give me the separation.No. I mean this is a good
general discussion to have where it's likewhen you have these receivers that are that
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are separating and getting open more thatstrongly correlates with your yards after catch when
you're doing a lot of contested catches. I mean usually they are deeper down
the field, but you're not gettingmuch yards after catch much yak where YAK
has like a long right tail,where like oftentimes you're gonna get between what
like three and five yards of catchyards after catch and say, but like
it could become those those devil DeeboSamuel AJ Brown type plays where you break
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it off for thirty forty yards andlike that's how you get explosive plays in
your offense. Is win A receivercan can really just like take it to
the house, you know, dependingon that. Like you look at Brian
Thomas Junior in particular, he ranhe ran hitches twenty five point six percent
of the time. Last season,he ran slant seven point five percent of
the time, and he ran digsalso seven point five percent of the time.
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So those are all three three wereall about or above average four receivers
in this draft class. So it'slike if he's getting those inbreaking routes that
aren't like generally logged down the field, but like he can take them because
of his separation and turn them intolike ten fifteen yard gains, I think
that's gonna be something that's really helpful. And the other thing would contested catch
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receivers is they have a little bittougher time avoiding injury because of how hard
they come to the ground sometimes.And also it's harder to have longevity when
you're a contested catch receiver and you'rerelying solely on your athleticism, your vertical
jump to get up and to dothose while if you're separating, it's a
little bit easier for you to notget tackled, to step out of balance
(24:10):
more to get tackled lighter like,I think there's also stuff you can do
with extending your career if you're gettingopen more. Yeah, I think that
he's also just gonna run a tonof slot fads. He did that at
LSU. Peterson loves that as acover one answer. I feel like that
that room overall, you got DavisKirk obviously, Brian Thomas Junior evitingram there.
It's like at least decent. Ifeel like Trevor Lawrence is gonna be
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I've said this now. I thinka few times. I keep thinking about
it, like he's going to bea prime just like bounce back candidate.
And then I was saying, wellwhat is he bouncing back from? And
I feel like it's just just likelike negativity, like the general outlook,
like the questioning of Trevor Lawrence's athletictalents in some way, and yeah,
like you said, let's get someof those catches in bounce I wanted to
so like long right tail, Ifeel like that's something that we have talked
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about a little bit. I letme see my if my stats and talking
was good. So that's saying likein the distribution of out like the long
right tail means like, like yousaid, right, you catch something short
and the majority of times you're notgoing to turn into an ENDR touchdown,
like, but those possibilities do exist, so you kind of want to,
like I said, by the rightthe long right tail, like you're you
want to do things that it hasthe chance of kind of like exploding and
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you hit the like the you blowthrough this ceiling a little bit exactly.
Yeah, I think you summarize thatthat really well. Where it's like when
when you're having when you're looking atthe range of outcomes for what's already happened,
like the last couple of years ofyards after catch, like the majority
of those plays fit in like ageneral distribution where like where it's concentrated in
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a general area. But then youhave that like x percent of the time
where you break off one of thoseplays and you end up turning it into
something big and like explosive plays.Is really like what a lot of offenses
are chasing. And so I thinklike that that's pretty important to get that
long right tail on. I thinklife in general sometimes is about chasing the
long right tail, you know.With with some of the places we went
(26:00):
to eat in Detroit for example,we were chasing that. Yeah, shout
out to Barta that was that wasa really really good meal, a really
fun one to share where we hadYeah, I mean similar conversations like this
around around some really good food.Kas was hoping to limit yard deaf you
had to turn on for the Lions. That was one that I definitely want
to talk about first because it wasjust like an awesome press conference. You
(26:22):
talked about how he like just droppeda song. He was like very high
energy. I know being high energydoesn't doesn't when you games, particularly,
but it was cool to like Igot to ask him about, hey,
you like you play a lot ofman coverage or you do feel more comfortable
being off do you want to bein the guy's face? And he was
like almost cut me off, andhe's like, no, I want to
be in the receiver space the entiregame. I want you to know I'm
there, like from snap one tothe end. And that feels like it
(26:44):
really fits Aaron Glenn pretty well.Yeah, I think that's a great point.
You know, very high end mancoverage corner. You know, someone
who pressed a lot in Nick Saban'sdefense had pretty good footwork closing, you
know he was he was good whentargeted last year, both from a success
rate and EPA standpoint. Aaron Lynton, like you mentioned, is someone who
(27:04):
plays a lot of man coverage,so tarn Arnold should fit in that pretty
nicely. Yeah, I'm excited tosee it. I think that that's going
to be someone who hopefully is ableto kind of produce pretty early on.
It feels like for years, likeAaron Lennon, he wants to play man
covered that what is what he wantsto do, and feel like he's had
to to kind of point off thatin different ways just based on what's going
(27:25):
on in the dB room page thatcloses up kind of the ones that I
want to talk about. Why don'tyou take a lead on whoever you want
to talk about next? Yeah,so I know you said no quarterbacks on
your side, but like the firstone that came to mind was was a
quarterback just because we talked about themso much, and it's JJ McCarthy who
ended up getting taken by the Vikingsat number ten. Overall. Mina Kimes,
(27:48):
I thought had such a good descriptionof him during the draft cycler.
He said, it's like if youasked Ai like what a Shanahan quarterback should
look like, because like that ishow he plays where it's like he seems
like he fits really well, youknow under center play action, getting the
ball to his receivers, you know, with a lot of like middle of
the field in breaking routes that againthey can turn into two yards after catch.
(28:11):
I think even you can debate,like how good of a prospect he
actually is, Like what I thinkhe will be for the Vikings is like
efficient enough to keep the offense ontrack in both the pass and what he
can do in the run game.Like when I thought about the Vikings offense
last year, like you needed likea Josh Dobbs or Nick Mullens like crazy
turnover game to really like slow downthe offense was it was very efficient when
(28:36):
Justin Jefferson, Jordanassen and TJ.Hockinson were on the field. You throw
Aaron Jones into that mix, andso like, I don't think JJ McCarthy
will be that type of guy.He really only had one game in his
entire college career where he turned theball over a lot against Bowling Green early
last season. So I think heshould fit in pretty nicely. Do you
think this is like JJ McCarthy inparticular, or this is just like quarterback
(28:57):
being able to land in Minnesota,right, I mean that's part of it
for sure, Like there was definitelya nurture aspect to all quarterback situations.
Yeah, I feel like, youknow, Kevin O'Connell, like West Phillips
obviously, Jefferson and Addison, You'vegot both those tackles. Still a believer
in in Aaron j. Just Yep, We're gonna learn a lot about J.
J. McCarthy. I could ifyou ask me, like which of
(29:18):
the quarterbacks is gonna have the bestyear. I think this is one where,
assuming he starts from from game one, you could easily point to him,
particularly because of that situation. Iguess we haven't really thought about it.
I haven't thought about too much,but like he should starting in game
one, right, Yeah, Ido think he should start week one,
just because that is the way toget him experience at the NFL. Like
(29:42):
we'd already talked so much on likethe class play with with Sam and then
about like his usage rate was solow in college, like we just didn't
see as much of him as wesaw as some of the other quarterbacks in
this class, So like it wouldbe great to get him reps. I
think early. Yeah, and obviouslyyou worry, like, okay, scar
tissue, bad habits, Like theoffensive line is good, the coaching is
(30:03):
good. I think, like yougotta. I mean, Jefferson's gonna get
like one hundred and seventy five percentof salakop, but he's gonna be He's
gonna break all sorts of new cashrecords kind of on there. So maybe
just for so we can talk aboutit after a week one or a week
one review, get us the guyson the field right away for us,
you know, like I want tosee that you who do you got next
to talk about? So I wantto talk about both of the receivers at
(30:26):
the forty nine ers took. Sowe'll start with Ricky Piersol, which you
can debate if this pick was areach or not, you know, going
off because of the big board.But like we're talking about fits here,
and I think he fits in reallywell to Kyle Shanahan's scheme. So again,
going back to some of the staffsBOM data we have, you know,
Ricky Pearsall was someone who was secondamong all receivers in this draft in
(30:47):
average separation, he was third whenwhen in separation when the ball was in
the air, and he was seventhin YAK so only Xavier Worthy was separating
better than him. I think thatwas more of a function of Worthy's route
tree two being a lot of screens. But I think Pearcel is someone who
was a really good separator and prettygood after the catch, which is like
what Shanahan wants in his offense.He also had a ninety eighth percentile athletics
(31:11):
score, so that's something that wasalso really high. So you're going to
add a highly athletic receiver into thisoffense, you know, someone who could
even be used on the kickoff return. I think will be interesting, Like
he's going to offer a lot tothe forty nine ers and I'm excited to
see what he looks like in thatoffense and kind of how his role is,
(31:33):
whether it's Juan Jennings third down roleat the beginning and then he moves
into more of a full time roleor if he can be full time from
day one. This just made mesad thinking about Brandon and Yuk and Diebo.
Samuel, do you think both thoseguys are still going to be in
San Francisco this year, Please pleasetell me ask. I think if one
of them were to be moved,it would be Deebo Samuel, But post
(31:56):
draft, I'm thinking that he's movedafter this season. I don't know,
what do you think about that?I don't care what I think about it.
I care what I feel about it, And what I feel is that
I would love for those guys isalways San Francisco forty nine ers. I
do like that. I mean,like Chanahan is the receivers coach really through
and through, and so that issomething I know he spends just like more
time on than maybe other head coachesdo. He's like, I'm played receiver.
(32:20):
That's what I think he loves.So whatever we say about like if
he was a reach or not,like reaches are bad and then we have
the like data conclusion that steals aren'tactually steals, like usually these people are
following for a reason. So isit just like all like every single draftic
is bad, like reaches are bad, steals are bad, just use extenses
board through and through? How dowe like, how do I rationalize it?
How do I feel good on drafting? No? So Basically, what
(32:44):
that's saying is, like steals aresteels, aren't bad. Steals are just
more likely to perform at their draftposition than their consensus Big Board ranking,
while reaches are more likely to performat their consensus Big Board ranking than their
actual draft position. So basically whatthat says is just like draft off is
a big board that's so lame.Do you think is that like your your
(33:07):
GM, I'm I'm the I don'tknow the the team podcast guy, Like
do I is that? What Itell the masses, like GMT step is
just is hitting the consensus is abig word, back to back to back.
This is this is our guy.He's a sharp Well, I'm hoping
you're the head coach if if I'mthe GM in this scenario, and in
that case, I like, Idon't know if you saw the Lions were
(33:30):
we're all wearing Dan Campbell's Lions uniformin the draft room on day three,
so I'd probably be wearing your highschool UH uniform on day three. There
we go some of the some ofthe the two best jerseys that I think
I saw during draft and we didn'tspend like as much time like in the
kind of like physical draft ere itself, But was Dan campibl jersey, which
(33:51):
is obviously like that makes sense.That was a great to see and there
was a trend in Browns jersey thatwas that was that was cool, you
know, that was always love agood jersey. Continue with the Browns.
Did you got Michael Hall Junior?It feels like that was another one of
your draft and I feel like thatwas kind of everyone's draft crush anyway,
kept like popping off on these differentgraphics that we're putting out. What do
(34:13):
you got there? Yeah, Imean Michael Hall Junior went on Columbus Radio
this morning to talk about him,because I think everyone's really excited about the
first pick that the Browns had inthis draft. When you look at him,
he was someone who didn't rack upa ton of sacks last year at
o High State. That's less predictiveof future performance. But what he did
have was a four point five percentpressure rate in proximity to the quarterback,
(34:37):
but also the lowest time to pressureof any of these defensive tackles, even
quicker than Byron Murphy, who youknow, you know, I love,
so I think he's someone who canget quickly to the quarterback and be used
in a really fun rotation in JimSchwartz's defense. Yeah, well, I
mean, you know, we talkedabout those guys last year. Go ahead,
let them get after the quarterback likeBill stopped the run on the way
(34:59):
there. Don't worry about that though. They're gonna kind of flash up the
field, which I love and Ithink that that'll be fun. That is
something we get tco you wanna godo next, So let's talk about Jermaine
Burden from Alabama, who the Bengalsended up drafting. You know, someone
who is who is highly productive atAlabama used a lot on deeper passes.
(35:20):
He ran a lot of gos,posts and corners and was really explosive when
targeted on on these. He hada thirty six percent deep target rate twenty
eight percent explosive play rate, whichwas the highest, which we're both were
the highest of receivers in this draftclass. So I'm excited to see how
he fits in with Joe Burrow,who we know likes to throw deep and
kind of like what he might doafter this season once the Bengals move on
(35:43):
from T Higgins. Yeah, Imean, just a great kind of dart
throw and round three in tension thatwas like frustrates to me. How obviously
we don't know how good this isthe class for the Bengals will be.
But like the Bangals, like howI just feel like they're so good at
drafting, like the act of drafting, and then they unfortunately have his kind
of contract situations that come up,which is just it makes me mad,
(36:04):
Page, It makes me mad.Yeah, No, I do feel that.
I think that, Yeah, itwill be interesting to see like like
everything around him and how that playsout. Basically, who do you got
next? Let's talk about Jalen Wright, who, again we don't want to
talk about the trade capital, thedraft capital that the Dolphins ended up giving
(36:25):
the Eagles to get him. Wejust want to talk about his fit on
the Dolphins. So you know,he did get to run against a lot
of light boxes last year in theJosh Hipel offense, which I want to
hear your thoughts about in a secondhere. But like he's someone who had
five point one yards after contact,which is the best among running backs in
this draft, ninety seventh percentile athleticismscore four point three eight forty. Like
(36:50):
just a ton of speed injected inthis offense. But do you think there's
gonna be a tough transition for himbecause he went from like a very unique
college offense to just like it playingagainst NFL defenses in general. Well,
I think that the jump is justlike, hey, you're going against college
defenses, tannile defense in general.Like the way that he is gonna like
read his running, I think probablyand will feel a bit different. Like
(37:12):
Page watching these college the college offenses, I'm glad that we're kind of off
it obviously. I think through thesummer I will watch a little bit just
see kind of team fits. Yeah, that you're running into like four million
boxes sometimes for five min boxes,so like just the physical space is uh
is more, and like the waythat gaps are filled is a lot different.
And sometimes like you're only gonna runthe ball if it's gonna be into
(37:34):
a light box and that's just notgonna happen in the NFL. You're gonna
run into either even boxes or orboxes that you're that are stuffed up.
I will say, like if you'regonna go to a team the Dolphins where
they're uh like just manipulating spaces inso many different ways. That is fun
and this was like such al right, like like you gotta type and that's
fine, Like I think that that'sfine. You have your preferences. Uh,
you want the really fast guy onthe Dolphins, right, Like I
(37:57):
don't. I don't argue with thatkind of in any way. But yeah,
like I said, I mean thatoften it is incredibly fun in some
ways, but then when trying toevaluate it running back being like, look
like there's just not the translatable reps, which is I know we talked about
McCarthy where you can buy the righttail because you don't have like what his
you should usage would be, butGenerate is fast and the Miami Dolphins like
(38:21):
fast players and that's fun to me. So so I'm good there. I
think the next one is our lastplayer? Who do you got? Yeah,
Amarius Mims for the Bengals, goingback to them again. Just love
their draft in general. But likehe's someone who had the lowest pressure rate
allowed in proximity of the quarterback lastseason, which is perfect for Joe Burrow
(38:42):
because I think Joe Burrow, forall the good qualities he has, sometimes
he can he can dig himself ina hole when he's taking sacks, especially
when when pressured. So I thinklike that is something that's gonna help once
he works into the rotation, whichis like something I want to talk about
where they already have two tackles withor Brown and Trent Brown, So it
could make things a little bit weirdfor Merris Moms to not start right away.
(39:06):
But like for someone for a prospectthat's like considered more raw, like
him, had less playing time atGeorgia, maybe this, this sitting and
developing will be better for him,you know, whereas we talked about getting
reps for some other players, wherelike he can really learn what it's like
to play offensive line in the NFL. Curious on your thoughts on that.
Yeah, I felt like the boardfell in a way for the Bengals that
(39:29):
they were pretty happy about. Andlike we mentioned, I mean, the
whole show is right about how playersfit on teams, and I think to
be a tackle that is like callingthem just a development tackle. I know
that's how he said. Like thatmay that probably goes a little too far,
but yeah, being in a situationwhere hey, you're not like the
franchise is not depending on you startinglike staff one at left tackle is I
(39:50):
think can be good and to beable to like that more used to things
being able to get time or likethrough Otia's and things like being able to
kind of hammer out just technique thingsfor more as you said, just like
not a ton of snaps in hiscollege career at that spot. I think
that will overall be good. Andyou want to I think we agree on
this. You want to draft kindof before. Ideally you draft for a
(40:12):
position before that need is like hyperhyper apparent, which brings us to our
next thing. You can talk aboutteams drafting for needs that might not be
hyper apparent. You you want toyou convince me for some time at the
end of the podcast here to talkabout Michael Penis Junior, obviously picked by
the Falcons. I do want tosay, just to preface it, like
in the media room that was likeit felt like a jump scare, like
(40:35):
we have this this pretty cool draftapp and like on it when panics came
up, I was sitting next toBen Brown, I was like, like,
Ben, like doing you talk toengineer? Like was there an issue
here? Was there something that likewas it was so so surprising like when
it happened like like a like areal, real draft surprise, and probably
the most work that it is doingis covering up the next quarterback that I
(40:58):
was taken. All right, whydon't you go ahead talk to a little
bit about your thoughts on the MichaelPennick juning your selection. Yeah. So
obviously the theme of this show wasbest fits, which I don't think Michael
Pennick's junior fits into that. Youknow, maybe in three years if we
saw him start, we could talkabout that more. But like, yeah,
I didn't really get the pick becauseof his age at twenty four years
(41:19):
old, which is different than Ithink taking like a Jordan Love or Patrick
Mahomes to sit for one or twoyears because they were younger when they were
taken. Kirk Cousins guaranteed money onehundred million dollars pro rated over the course
of his four year contracts, soyou're still going to be guaranteeing him twelve
point five million in years three andfour, which like kind of ruins the
advantage of a rookie contract quarterback.But I was talking about it a lot
(41:43):
with Sam brook House and thinking aboutit myself, and like, if I
had to justify this selection to ArthurBlank, this is what I think I
would say, like this is maybethe Falcons reasoning for this pick. So
the only way we don't win thedivision the next two years is if Cousins
goes down and we have to starttailor Heinekes. So we wanted to make
sure we had at least a combatantbackup quarterback. I think in our ideal
(42:05):
timeline we would want to take aquarterback in twenty twenty five, but looking
ahead, the twenty four to fivequarterback class is not strong at all,
So I think you wouldn't have beengetting anyone that was maybe as highly graded
as Pennix currently was coming out.I think, you know, you had
a really good conversation with Greg Rosenthalabout this, But like we're over confident
(42:27):
in general, that's why we're onhere talking right now. But like,
I think we're over confident in ourability to project quarterbacks past the age of
thirty five, quarterbacks when they changesituations, which is like the Kirk Cousins
bucket, and also quarterbacks from collegeto pro, which is the Michael Pennocks
bucket. So saying all that,like maybe they believe is his arm talent,
his sack avoidance, his touch onsome of the passes, gives him
(42:49):
a chance to become a good quarterbackin the NFL. So all that combined
made the Michael Pennock selection at numbereight, like what the Falcons wanted to
do? All right, Uh yeah, a lot there. I think that
I do wonder how it would havebeen received if it was another quarterback.
To me, if like if Drakemayfall to that spot, I would probably
(43:09):
be like super cool, like superforward thinking of them to be able to
do that. I don't even knowwhat to start kind of on this point
because I actually do like I'm notlike fully convinced, but like I'm comfortable
with Like, hey, Kirk Cousinsis not young. You make a great
point, like one of the biggesthindrances to win the division would be a
(43:30):
quarterback injury. Like to draft thatquarterback there for the future. I can't
spend all this time like look likesaying, oh, you want to draft
for your need kind of right beforeit happens instead of aver happens and then
like make a big deal about themdrafting a quarterback that I think is I
think that I can get there andfine, Like now at eight, would
you want to obviously draft a playerthat like based on how much money is
(43:52):
being devoted to Kirk Cousins as percentageof the cap, like your best way
to win the division is actually tojust have other good players at was it
just kind of that backup quarterback slot? So I will say if I was
playing the Arthur Blank World tage,maybe you didn't fully convince me. But
again, like I said, like, okay, you're gonna take another quarterback,
I'm gonna I'm not gonna pretend likelike my evil of Michael Pennick Junior
(44:14):
is gonna be fully correct. LikeI think it would be silly to do
that at the age. I thinkas you mentioned, like that's a like
that is a big deal. Likemaybe if it ended up being I don't
know, did you think if ifthey drafted McCarthy there, like would people
have just been like weird but cool, like we're fine with this exactly?
Yeah. I mean Eric even likeon the Hammer Draft show that he was
doing like a week before the draft, like he gave the Falcon JJ McCarthy,
(44:36):
which is like he's twenty one,you know, he was higher on
the on most big boards like thatI think would have made sense because it's
like, oh, Yeah, he'llbe twenty three, twenty four by the
time he's our starting quarterback full time, like maybe he can fill in when
needed, which is yeah, whichis just why, Like all of this
together makes it so interesting. Iwould have loved to see Roma Dunze in
(44:58):
Atlanta. I thought, you know, they might have gone there, they
might have gone defense or traded back, you know, definitely not not uh
you know something. I thought thatthis was going to happen, but made
for great discourse, Like I'm gladthat this pick happened because we wouldn't have
had much to talk about after dayone it was. It mostly kind of
went how you expected to. Sothis was like first take, like we
(45:20):
could do an hour on this onthis pick. We had to. We
would have one hundred percent talked aboutBonex if Michael Banks or didn't go,
but we knew that. We knewBonix was going twelve to no. I
know, I know this. Yeah. I talked to Charles McDonald about it.
Who's a Falcons fan? I yeah, I asked him. I was
like, oh, you get tochoose who do you want there? And
he would have I think like RamaDunzai there as well. I think we
(45:44):
happy to go hang out with CaleWilliams, So it sounds like those guys
are buddies. Ta let's close offwith our kind of thoughts on the stats
and scheme Rookie of the Year,not like the official AP Offensive Rookie Year
or Defensive Rookie of the Year.This is obviously like a little bit more
or maybe a lot more kind ofvibes based a little bit to our taste,
non exact metric. I think tajare only official award winners were Ben
(46:06):
Johnson and Mike McDonald as the coordinatorsof the year for the statues, right,
Yeah, those are the award winnerslast year. All right, So
I think I'll maybe let you leadoff first on maybe offense, maybe defense?
What do you think for who doyou and again, like it could
be that there's like a split inthat I give someone award, you give
someone award. You know, itfelt like last year we were pro participation
(46:28):
Trophy in a lot of ways.So nothing wrong with a lot of hardware.
So I think Cooper to Gene isgoing to be someone who we talk
about a lot on this show nextyear. You know, he's eighth in
Defensive Rookie of the year odds rightnow at twenty five to one. But
like, I think, what whathe projects for the Eagles where he can
be used on the outside, onthe inside, and say, in the
(46:50):
safety spot. You've done so muchgood work on vic V ANDNG on his
defenses, and I think he's gonnahave a lot of fun with Cooper to
jan in his defense next year.Yeah, I think I'm just unbelievably fascinating
to see where he goes because doyou evaluate him and say, you know
what, like he's maybe a Tiertwo, maybe Tier three cornerback, Like
let's just put him there. That'sobviously like such a premium position. It's
(47:13):
so important to have guys that cancover the Eagles cornerback situation as a whole
needs to be figured out. Feelslike they address that really obviously with Quinn
and Mitchell earlier on. This isa great pick, Tae, because you're
right, I am gonna be watchinghim a lot because I don't in the
whole position he's gonna play, Like, I think Paeder really values that safety
position in so many ways. Atthe nickel spot, he almost wants a
player that's a little bit more likea linebacker, like do you or not?
(47:37):
Is like a linebacker, but likeyou got to do a lot of
work in the run game as anickel in that scheme, particularly obviously as
a safety, you gotta be rotatingdown. I don't know, Like I
keep thinking, what does the secondarylook like? I have no idea,
which makes it fascinating that that wasa really really good pick. I think
you're gonna say, like Byron Murphy, you know your your your draft crush.
I think that's something. Maybe Ijust love the interior guys on defense
(47:57):
more. I think that Turnronld's gonnabe one that I just I feel like
I'm gonna fall in love with himin Detroit. I just like you see
him making like a really nice typeplay on a third down, batting the
ball away in like a playoff gameor a playoff like kind of game.
I think that it maybe it makessense that we both chose teams that are
certainly hoping to make kind of runsin the NFC. I think those situations
(48:22):
are good on the offensive side.I thought it'd be kind of boring to
say, like Marvin Harrison Junior,like I as I keep saying, like
sewn the separator team separation That's whatI'm all about in the route running contact.
I feel like like Drake May,like that's obviously my type of quarterback,
and I'm so scared that like ifyou get you or you land on
(48:43):
the kind of left side of hisdistribution, for what can happen for him.
I feel like it if we getlike three just like nasty throws from
him this year, You're not gonnahear the end of it from me,
because I think that's like that's whatthe Patriots in the end kind of want
to see, Like, hey,like he's going to be able to in
the future really be able to kindof pull people up. So I feel
(49:05):
like May May's gonna be my earlyon my early list. Like you have
the call or whatever the whatever thatare now called in college, where like
you have your preseason lists to sendout, so let's look out what God
for that anyone on offense for youtation, Yeah, I like the ones
that you mentioned more of a longshot here, but Jonathan Brooks I think
is gonna be someone we talk abouta lot in Carolina because you look at
(49:30):
what the Panthers did this offseason givingthose contracts to Damian Lewis and Robert Hunt
to really beef the interior of theiroffensive line, and like, I think
he's someone who can run decently wellin those But like also with Dave Canalis
did with Rashad White last year withrespect to his receiving production coming out of
the backfield, Rashad White being oneof the better or the more productive receiving
(49:52):
backs in the league, like JonathanBrooks was also someone who is who's pretty
productive in college as a receiving back. I think he'll be used a lot
in the past game and I thinkthat'll be really fun to watch how he's
used on swing passes and screens anddifferent stuff like that. Titch, we
finished out the draft. It's aboutto be May, which means officially time
for stats and schemes. May andJune break changing me working on something that
(50:15):
is fascinating. I'll be working ona little bit of a longer term project.
We're expecting to be back with allof you the first week of July,
but of course don't hold us tothat. I've in July and August.
Of course we'd have our division previewsleading up two week one of the
season. Taje, I'm gonna misstalking into a microphone with you for the
next two months, I guess.I mean, I'll just have to be
reduced to our usual talking through ourwork. It's like we're not gonna be
(50:39):
talking kind of anyway. I knowI'm gonna miss it as well. I
think this was a lot of funto do our first season here, really,
you know, from all the waywhen we started right before week one
to right now, so the seasonfinale of this was a lot of fun
to do also, and then we'lltake some time work on our projects and
(51:00):
then hopefully be back, you knowin in everyone's podcast feed pretty soon here,
Tish. If you were like programmingit as like television seasons, would
you have considered like the season ofsuper Bowl, like that season one of
Assassin scheme there there's that one weekbreak off of super Bowl and then off
season of season two. Or doyou consider it like like when we're pitching
(51:21):
our podcast as a TV show toNetflix, like, no, this is
one season of television. I thinkthis was one season from when we started
the week before week one to now, just because we had like our our
very bulky episodes during the season whereyou know, we talked about a lot
of stuff and then like you knowwhen a TV show like kind of like
(51:43):
runs out of stuff to do towardsthe end of the end of the actual
season, like they start doing likeone off episodes that like actually don't mean
a ton to the plot, butlike they're just like, you know,
this guy like goes on an adventurein like a different city or something like
that. That's where we really didfreeency and draft. I feel like,
well, yeah, didscha. Imean, I know some of your bodies
that we met with this weekend couldn'tget through through your body problem. There's
still an episode, all right,we got to figure out how to all
(52:07):
right, let's get out of her. Thank you to everyone for spending some
of your time with us today,through the off season and through the draft.
With what I will call it tage, I agree with you this season
one of the Stats and Scheme podcast. Visit Summer Sports dot com, follow
us on Twitter and YouTube at suomers. Don't forget to leave a nice rating
wherever you choose to be, butmost importantly, enjoy the rest of your
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week, your month, and themonth after that, and we will see
you next time.